including a very large and apparently modern production base, this is the tver province, which should still be guarded, because there are rockets, shells, and whatever, it didn't work, flew in and exploded. what this means is that russia lacks the means of modern air defense to cover key points on its own territory, because putin did not have in his head when he began his aggression against ukraine that he would be able to get a response, he ... he got it , i don't see any big news in this, because that's exactly what happened, for example, both in april and may 22, when he did not expect an answer on the way to kyiv or gostomel, and met and received this answer in kharkiv and so on, the same applies to kursk. so, war has its own logic, the problem is that it is very difficult for the russian mentality to understand this modern logic, it is very simple, if it is a european logic and consisted in the fact that

when you live in a glass house, you should not throw stones at your neighbors , may arrive in response, and putin and his entourage thought that nothing would arrive in response, but secondly, the most headless of them believed that this is our house, glass or not, it is ours, the west will be afraid and will not participate, ukraine will be afraid, zelensky will flee and in three days there will be a victory parade in kyiv, it did not work out that way , and now the process has already started, which is difficult... it is terrible, it is bloody, it is destroying ukraine, it is a victim of aggression, there are no questions here, but it is also destroying russia, the only question is that russian public opinion has not yet substantiated this, did not realize and is not ready to realize, and in this sense ukraine engages in presenting time and time again very clear, simple lessons for russian public opinion. the question is how soon this public opinion will be able to gather courage, he admitted. that putin committed not only

a crime by starting this war, but also a mistake, and now he will have to pay for this mistake for a long time and in extremely unfavorable ways. but this is another conversation. in general, it seems to me that the war has gone mad. in the 21st century, in the modern world, wars do not solve problems. but putin remained in the 18th or 19th century or in the first half of the 20th. century he was possessed by, i don’t know, the spirit of nicholas i, or someone else, or some, i don’t know, stalin’s projections were incarnated, he thinks so, and here the key story is how much this cotton wool with ammonia can hollow him out, well here the question is about the amount of blood, the amount of destruction, and accordingly, in principle , the unshakable position of the west, we understand that in ukraine there is nowhere to flee under the threat of destruction...

putin and the kremlin offer only an ultimatum: give us your territory, give us your sovereignty , give it to us its identity, otherwise the war will continue, that is, this is not a negotiating position, it is only an ultimatum under the threat of destroying the people, the state, and so on, that is, de facto putin does not offer anything, but perhaps just these or other cotton balls with ammonia blood, i'm not afraid to say it. will they be able to slightly, i don't know, change the option in his head? if i understood you correctly, my answer will be as follows: the thing is that russia is two-layered, on the one hand, it is european, and on the other, let's say, golden horde, at least ivan vasilyevich the terrible consciously used the practices of zolotordinsk territorial management, which he borrowed from usaf gerey, each time he managed the kazan khanate quite strictly. all the time there is opposition to

the european intention, where russia was the same empire as, for example, austria-hungary, under the leadership of the rather europeanized romanov monarchic family, but since 1917, especially after comrade stalin came to power , conventional asian notions of organization of power, a kind of sultanate, the eastern method of production, as karl marx wrote, saying that... there is no private property, the property belongs to the state, etc., and this is already an empire not of the european type, but of the golden horde, when there is a khan, who is not limited by any political institutions , which would restrain him , there is no military-political or military-nomadic pseudo-democracy, which is called delegative, that is, he once delegated the powers of the khan, and after that he is nothing...

part of the great russian people consists of the traitors themselves, and this is purely the stalinist approach, the people are traitors, and this is a purely horde approach, when the khan could deprive the uluz of their subjectivity, relocate them from one part of their territory to another part, here even putin's logic was turned inside out, starting from the fact that ukraine does not... have subjectivity, and the ukrainian people do not exist, and to the point that in just over two years, this nation should be destroyed, because it does not obey us, even the logical external contradiction is obscured and covered, and you just need to understand,

putin - collective putin, let it impersonal, and that collective putin in the person of simonyan, solovyov, shuigu, medvedev, anyone, that system of values ​​that he... the development of events. the natural logic is that ukrainians want to be in europe. therefore, he could not overcome this natural desire for sovereignty by peaceful means, he could not buy yanukovych with the 17 billion dollars that he invested in it. ukraine did not agree to this, and yanukovych was expelled. the question is, what terrible price will the known result pay in advance for this natural experiment, well, what does known in advance mean, does anyone understand,

someone does not understand, it seems to me that this result is known in advance, it is in any case a deep depression, not to say a disaster for russia. i do not say at all, because she is a victim of aggression, here it is clear that the loss of population, the destruction of the economy, was not initiated by ukraine, it was initiated by collective putin, then answering your question, as i understood it correctly, putin is trying to resist the natural course of european history, and of course it doesn't work, that's what miloševych and others were doing at the time characters, not rivers broke through, but a great battle. has a lot of resources, so more blood will have to be shed, what can you say here, how to fight this, i have no idea, but look,

dmytro borisovich, well, we understand that putin is not a power in himself, he has certain partners , trade, geopolitical, you know, i've already filled my mouth. china and not only china, iran joins in here, but here the question is, what exactly, for example, are brazil and china giving certain signals regarding certain peace proposals, we understand that a large part of them are non-public, they are probing the ground, first of all in the united states, maybe in brussels, maybe in london, so ukraine is simply surprised, any proposals that come from the same heaven. from brazil, so they reduce it to the fact that it is called peace at the expense of ukraine, the seizure of our territories is constantly discussed, they talk about the so- called realities on the ground, although our fighters have demonstrated that the realities on the ground are not so unambiguous, the armed forces of ukraine

are on the territory kursk province, but we also suspect that beijing and brazil and not only they give certain signals with the agreement of... the kremlin, that is, with the agreement of the kremlin, they give certain signals, broadcast them, and try to check what the reaction will be, and this may mean that the kremlin is ready for something, but here the question of the psychotype of this russian milosevic. first, i think that putin made a geopolitical choice and turned russia eastward. and now, according to his ideas about the beautiful, and his idea is soviet. and therefore supernatural, he builds a block of moscow, beijing, tehran, pyongyang, partially, perhaps the capital of syria, damascus, is a block that opposes the west, the problem is that putin is not a leader in this block, he sings to china there, and the west, especially in the western hemisphere

, america, western europe, does not arouse sympathy in many countries, such as brazil and others. it's not about the countries in general, it's about which ones specifically... brazil rules the left forces, there is no beast scarier than american imperialism, and russia has never occupied brazil, so why not support russia, that's all. actually secondarily, i.e. putin broke away from the dominant trend of global development and turned to second-rate, sorry for the directness of political regimes, and brought russia there too. to me, as a russian, it seems terrible and counterproductive. and what is called the exit from the war in europe, there have been no such serious warriors on the territory, at least for almost 100 years. the last one was hitler's, who talked about the path of life. germany, it turns out, can perfectly exist without the hegerstrand life space.

europe's largest economy had none the need to seize ukrainian black soil. baku oil or donetsk steel and coal, as hitler said. so, this is a normal trend of development, intensification of space instead of seizing someone else's territory. putin is rolling back to the strategy of 19th century politics, geopolitics. areas, etc., and in this geopolitics he will also lose, because you are already in kursk region. in fact, the matter is approaching the end of the war, it seems to me that way, because on both sides there are great losses, on both sides in two years problems on both sides have accumulated in volumes economy that is why the european wars stopped, because it is not possible to finally defeat someone in them. victory takes place in... a less developed socio-cultural space, here you will still have to negotiate at some point,

and for putin the presence of russian territories under the control of ukraine is a very serious geopolitical mistake, because in this value system in which russia lives, territory is the most important thing . and it turned out that putin undertook to liberate the russian people, this fairy tale is swallowed with pleasure by the public opinion in the territory of ukraine. well, ukraine. not subject, and the russian territory, as putin frees, as solovyov says there, but it all pays for those territories, the kurdish region, which is internationally recognized as the territory of russia, is under the control of ukraine, it is not clear how to get out of this situation, so i think , in the near future putin's biggest topic will be the return of the territory of the kurdish region under his control. this is a propaganda fact, because until this is done, putin cannot say that he is

an effective defender of the russian people. and in this sense, ukraine caused a lot of pain hit straight in the heart. and if our military, for example, would approach kursk, that is, the regional center, and maybe even take it into custody. do you remember how they used to draw putin's pictures. guderians, various snipers, how they capture ukrainian regional centers there, but if the armed forces of ukraine would surround kursk. again, if i understood you correctly, it seems to me that sooner or later the war will end and the struggle to get out of this unnatural situation will begin. now the armed forces of ukraine have brought a great deal to zelenskyi a trump card in these negotiations, because... putin needs to get out of this war, it is clear that he will no longer be able to conquer kherson or

zaporizhzhia, and all talk about the conquest of these four regions, which he has already declared russian, has turned into emptiness. but if you start negotiations with a part of the kurdish region under the control of ukraine, then this is an unbearably difficult political situation for putin. therefore, i think that the closest... this will be the main task for putin to push the armed forces out of the kurdish region. and then , as it will be. as for pokrovsk, the same the kursk region does not allow russia to advance with a wide front. russia now has the opportunity to advance in only one narrow direction, to pokrovsk. it is clear that this will be an important point, but even if russia in 3-4 months, maybe sooner or later, will take it under control and at the same time remain. a piece of the kursk region, it will not be

good for putin, but he needs to paint a victory on his flags, explain that he has ensured the security of the russian people, and after that move on to those burdensome arrangements that are still waiting for him. all those conflicts end when both parties feel exhausted and unable to seriously move forward. it seems to me that... the situation has already approached such a state: we see that the front line has generally stabilized, if we are not talking about pokrovsk in particular, there are some advances, but we cannot name them. rapid and victorious, and so in strategic terms it is clear that putin's plans for de-narshification, demilitarization, removal of the bloody kyiv regime, nato, etc., have not been implemented and will not be implemented. now the collective putin is thinking about how to pay off this story with a beautiful facial expression. the kurdish

region does not add a beautiful facial expression to putin, which means that the strategic idea... of abandoning european value systems and switching to the chinese kadyrov-north korean value system is a strategic failure. thank you very much, dear dmytro borisovych, for this extremely interesting and informative conversation with our tv viewers, i want to remind you that dmytro areshkin, a political scientist, was currently working for them professor of ryssky free university. thanks again for this analysis. thank you, goodbye, well, the time of our program is over, stay with espresso tv channel, my colleagues will inform you about all the most important events of the day. take care of yourself and your loved ones, do not ignore the air warning signals, god help you, see you on the air. it.

all the events of the current week, we talk, discuss, forecast, and of course we analyze everything about ukraine and the world in one program, and traditionally we will start it with vitaly portnikov, of course from the security bloc, on security issues, because these are probably the most important. more today in ukraine, not only in ukraine, but also outside our country. so, apparently, about what was happening this week, the russian so-called ammunition warehouses and not only ammunition, missiles, various types

of weapons were struck by strike drones, and these are dozens and hundreds of drones, this also happened in the krasnodar territory, this happened and in others, in particular, in populated areas of the occupying state of the russian federation, according to various data, there were explosions were so powerful that they were about two or three on the richter scale, like an earthquake, right? mr. vitaly, these are the strikes on the territory of the occupier on the territory of russia, the exploding warehouses, that. that the occupiers are left without at least some part of their weapons, how effective do you think it is, well in general from any point of view, and will it make putin russia at least partially abandon some of his further plans or at least adjust those plans during

in the near future, i mean in the war against ukraine. well, of course, in any case. we have to understand that any war, and we know this very well from our own experience, depends on the availability of an arsenal, if you do not have enough weapons, you can build various plans and ideas as much as you want, but you have no possibility to to put these ideas into practice. by the way, by and large , i have to say that the same applies to the situation related to the number of people in france, if the russians don't have enough.' number of people, they are forced were to retreat from the kharkiv direction, they did not have enough people to receive this territory at the time of 2022, and now many people say, you know, indeed the russians knew about the kurdistan, but they did not have enough people to receive this moment , when they received information about a possible breakthrough of ukrainian troops, because if they had these people, they would have to be withdrawn from

the donetsk section of the front, and they were not interested in this, they believed that this was a priority task for them and thus they missed forces, if you will, here is this offensive, even with intelligence about it. the same applies to arsenal, but it is obvious that now the general staff of the armed forces of the russian federation is preparing for new intensive attacks on ukrainian infrastructure, by the way, the official minister of foreign affairs of ukraine, andriy sabigo, has already spoken about this, and that is why to carry out such an attack, you need enough missiles and drones, if you don't have enough missiles and drones, you... collect them, don't you you see how the latest attacks are happening, russia is gathering enough iskander missiles, cruise missiles, drones and launching them all at the same time because that's the logic. any such combined attack, overwhelm the enemy's air defense system so that some part of the weapon hits the target. if there is not such a sufficient amount,

then there is no attack. by the way, here is a beautiful illustration, i think it is the story of the assassination in tehran of the head of the hamas politburo, ismail haniya. do you remember how many screams and tantrums there were, now the action of revenge with all the strength strike, destroy, and everyone then wondered, observers, well, they say it so beautifully, but where do they have so many missiles to carry out such a strike, if they just, well, just launched a massive attack on israel, right in their arsenals, the arsenals store an even greater number of missiles, and then why did they not use them in order to paralyze the air defense system of israel and its allies, it turned out that there is nothing. well, here even taking into account some healthy logic, i think that was the case from their point of view, it is illogical to do this, because firstly, any effect

of surprise was lost, and secondly, we well understand that they also need to have a certain reserve, that is, what they said to the people then, it was conventionally speaking it is illogical, but they just did it in a propaganda way, so the situation is the same in russia, of course, you and i cannot know for sure what happened there... it broke out, but judging by the effect in toropka, and in troitsky, well, and now in this, in october, there are already three warehouses and an airport in the kaluga region, these are all large losses, now they will sit down, accountants, not putin, and count how much there was, what is left, it is obvious that they may still have enough arsenal, but we must first understand the first year here. or such things, which means enough, here they are the entire supply of their missiles that they had in warehouses, well, precisely ballistic missiles, they had already developed them

in the first years of the war, uh, so now they are using these ballistic missiles in which they produce, for this it takes time, for a massive attack it takes several months, so they can add to these rockets, it's like a rocket dinner menu. of foreign production, which do not necessarily have to hit the target, if we are talking about north korean missiles, but they have to parallel the air defense system. well, in this situation, as you understand, when there are no north korean missiles, there is nothing to paralyze. so, you will have to look for new stocks. so, we don't know how many of these iranian missiles there are, whether they actually exist, in what quantity. so, this already reduces their opportunities. plus if more some drones are also destroyed, that's the whole logic, this is the first such moment that i would like to tell you about, andriy, and the second is a signal to the allies, if it is possible to use

drones to deliver such a blow to the russian military potential, then imagine what can be done with the help of missiles, and well, russia can plan a war of its own, a war at least until 2045, but it is necessary to fight with something, this, again, is not a plan, i am all too soon... war is not a plan, these are opportunities, can be planned, and opportunities may not meet, and one more important point in this situation is that even if we imagine that they have a large number of weapons in the far east in siberia, that is, at this distance of 300 km, it still takes time to rebase all this, it's safe to relocate so that it... doesn't get hit, you understand that when a train with missiles and ammunition comes from vladivostok, he doesn't buy a ticket for himself, and by the way, ukrainians

don't especially buy railway tickets either, that's why they can imagine how it is, it's a long way for rockets, so what in this regard, of course, it must be said that this is really such a serious story, and in any case it slows down the process, so we will now see how, but on... even in the temporal dimension, strikes on the infrastructure in a conditional november and a conditional march - these are different blows, because you hit badly in march, they fixed it, something was replaced there, summer is coming, summer is coming, if you turn off the lights or something else, then it is a small tragedy for the population, but winter is a different story, they are specially they want to create such a winter, you know, even on... not in order for ukraine to capitulate there, but in order to create a demographic collapse. so they have two goals of demographic collapse: the first demographic

crisis in europe is the migrant crisis. because the europeans can accept as many refugees from ukraine as they want, well, that’s not exactly the case, they can, but the issue of social dissatisfaction is already there, and if you add a few million more people to it, well, you can get at least a political effect, not that that people will go to the streets and shout, we want to hang ukrainians migrants, as it was from the migrant east, no, they will simply vote for an alternative for germany or for... books, and this is what moscow pursues as a strategic task, i.e. the coming to power in europe of pro-russian forces, this once, and the second, so that there were fewer people here. i always say that this is primarily a demographic war. there are many of us, and you know this, such a soviet way of thinking is, by and large, fixated on the territory. that is, the war, as a rule... is perceived

as a war not only for independence and for freedom, and for the restoration of territorial integrity, for the triumph of international law, i support this approach, too, but the restoration of international law between territories must be accompanied by the preservation of the population, but yesterday was another anniversary of the second karabakh war, karabakh, azerbaijan liberated a huge part of its sovereign territory from vermen control, and people there from... maybe even this very district of karabakh, there is shusha stepanaker, where there were cities with infrastructure, some people may settle there, but in general it is simple empty territory, but again , azerbaijan did not lose anything from this, because it had as many people as there were, so many remained in the territory where they lived, and ukraine, you understand, here we are, as the russians think, we are

waging a war, we are not. .. we can capture them all, but we can simply clear their own territory from them, but after the war there will be not 40 million of them, but 15, well, already a victory, already a victory, even if we have to accept the fact of the sovereignty of ukraine, even if we have to to agree that ukraine will join the european union and nato, even under these conditions, the later we agree, the more, the more difficult, i would say, in the standard of living we will make them here, the less they will be here, well, mr. vitaly, you mentioned the conditional november, yes, we are under by conditional november we understand that these could be strikes on energy infrastructure, new strikes on energy, and it is clear that it could be october, it could be november, it could be december, when there will be enough missiles, and it is clear that they are already preparing , that is, even according to the data of all those

monitoring various resources, we see. what russia is actively preparing, during the last two weeks, at least, it has been delivering missiles, all this is recorded, including with the help of satellite images. today there was another interesting statement, even two statements: the first statement was from the prominent current minister of foreign affairs, mr. sybiga, he stated that russia is preparing to strike the energy infrastructure, but i want to note here that it is about... objects that are located in the conditional complex of nuclear power plants, that is, to explain to the audience so briefly, there is a nuclear power plant, it is clear that russia is unlikely to hit the station itself, but we still have to understand that next to these stations there are these distribution energy facilities, they, they have already done it, and now mr. sebiga is declaring that russia is going to hit these

distribution capacities. and after that there was another statement, this is a statement from the office of the president of ukraine, and in this statement it was similar, only in a more dramatic tone, it was said that in the event, in the event, if there is such a strike, and in the event moreover, if there is any damage, as far as i understand, to nuclear power plants, then there may be radiation, which will also spread to the countries of the european union. here are the two statements. they came out today, and they refer to ukrainian intelligence, this means that such strikes are essentially already, already somewhere on the way, that is, ukraine, as far as i understand, is trying to preempt such a process, i don't know how much we we can prejudice such a process, because the russians.