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radio svoboda's weekly video podcast staff situation, i am rostyslav khotin, and it will help us understand the staff situation, the american election situation, serhiy kudelya, professor of political science at baylar university in texas. sergey, i congratulate you. hello, rostislav. so, it's like we 've had it all, and the removal of joe biden after a failed debate with trump, and... the nomination of kamala harris, and the first attempt to assassinate trump, and colorful candidates for vice presidents, and the debate, donald trump, kamala harris , as if everything had already happened, but the degree, the election degree, the temperature in america does not fall, does it? indeed, political tension remains quite high in the united states, and the debate did not bring any clarity to political, political. the distribution of supporters between

trump and harris, they remain about the same level, in many states, they have about the same number of supporters, and against the background of ... this growing uncertainty, about the results, we are seeing outbreaks of political violence, they are happening at the local level, we hear about threats against local officials in cities, in several states, an assassination attempt on presidential candidate donald trump, it raises a broader question about american democracy and the state of american society, since such a level of political violence is characteristic of countries with weak democracy. countries with certain authoritarian elements, but it is quite unique to countries with remaining democracies such as the united states. it is actually the result of a growing distrust among americans, in democratic institutions and in a key democratic

institution, namely the institution of voters, elections, and in my opinion, such a problem, the problem of political violence, it can significantly deteriorate. in the coming weeks and months, as we see, as you say, an increase in tension on the one hand, on the other hand, we hear constant calls from both sides to mobilize their supporters in their favor and demonize their opponents, and this is the course of the election campaign, he says that the consequences of the elections can be quite dramatic. regarding the ukrainian aspects of this assassination attempt, the second assassination attempt against donald trump. it is known that the suspect... ryan wesley rudd, he visited ukraine, he participated in rallies on maidan nezalezhnosti, he was also engaged, so to speak, in recruiting volunteers, volunteers for the foreign legion fighting for ukraine against russia. it is true that

the foreign legion renounced him, but nevertheless, he called to help ukraine and believed that the war against ukraine against the attack of russia is a struggle. good with evil, how these ukrainian aspects of the suspect are commented in america, the ukrainian aspect, and his history related to ukraine, his activism in ukraine, became known quite quickly, literally a few hours after the information about the assassination attempt, we saw on the screens of cnn television, other channels, photos of rut on the maidan, photos of rut surrounded by ukrainians, but many observers in america emphasize another aspect of rut's biography, this aspect is related to his rather unsuccessful business activities , the aspect related to his problems with the law enforcement, he was repeatedly detained by american law enforcement, he was accused of resisting

arrest, of neglecting his clients, so he was not very stable, not very stable person with very with so sad. entrepreneurial past, and according to many , it is this part of root's biography that explains his decision to do what he did, which is to try and possibly attempt to assassinate donald trump. however, from the point of view of republicans, especially many supporters of donald trump, ruth's connection with ukraine is not accidental, and we know one of the famous media, such as kalson tataker kalson. journalists, one of the supporters of donald trump, he says about what is actually a connection ruta with ukraine, emphasizes or indicates that the deep state is behind the attempt, so he adds this connection to the conspiracy

theories circulating in republican circles and which indicate that trump is trying to be removed or removed from the political game altogether . in one of the analyzes about this. about this attempt to assassinate donald trump , we had to read that ukraine, they say, is returning to the epicenter of the american election campaign. you would agree with this, but ukraine remained and remains at the epicenter the american election campaign, and although the issue of foreign policy itself is not very important for voters, the discussions on the ukrainian issue are still ongoing, and we have seen, for example, the appearance of commercials for kamela harris in some states where a large part of ukrainians live, we also saw last week's discussion of possible scenarios for the end of the russian-ukrainian war by vice-presidential candidate

jaydy vance, so ukraine comes up all the time, and it only reinforces this this this connection with rut's ukraine, on the contrary, he strengthens the discussion of ukraine in context. election battles in america, now there is really a lot of talk about the polarization of american domestic politics, in particular, they cite this famous tweet on the network of former elon musk, a supporter. donald trump, he wrote: "and no one is even trying to kill biden kamala." then he said that he was misunderstood, this humor was misunderstood, he deleted this post, cleaned it up, but hey hint, how did they understand me that trump is so cool that he is even assassinated they do, others don't. by the way, there was also a statement by biden and kamala harris, separate statements condemning this assassination attempt, but there was also a statement by trump himself. about the fact that, they say, the rhetoric of joe biden and kamala harris provokes such attacks on him, how to

deal with this? well, actually, donald trump's reaction to the second assassination, it was really very, very different from how he reacted to the first assassination. as we remember, in july , donald trump called on american society to unite, to stop some disputes and enmity. there were such conciliatory words in his. statements, now these are conciliatory rhetoric, it's completely gone, he almost immediately accused the white house of having inspired, as he told ruth, the attempt to carry out an assassination attempt against him, and he emphasizes that and the way he is portrayed as a threat for the democracy of the united states, in fact gives carte blanche to many others, those who are his opponents, to commit similar similar acts.

there is also some concern among donald trump's political advisers about over-escalation of this conflict, because it shifts the focus of the pre-election debates to the discussion of who is responsible for what, the attacks, who organized them, and instead of talking about discussing your pre-election platform, putting forward some ideas. new reforms, some initiatives, trump is forced to share his concerns about who might attempt to assassinate him again. this, in principle, can have a rather demobilizing effect on his voters, on a significant number of republicans who may be worried about their own security. his rallies are still going on, but the number of people who come there may be reduced because of the obvious security threats, and if trump's core doesn't remain on the ... likely, they will come to vote, then a large part of the republicans may think that

this is not really the right thing to do. , that maybe it could create some threats to them, so there's some concern that trump supporters might not come and not come and vote for him. what conclusions should the us secret service, which guards, have security guards to protect candidates in presidents, well, this is not normal in principle. in a couple of months already the second, second attempt to assassinate the former president and presidential candidate? well, in fact, after the first attempted assassination, there was a significant change in the way trump was provided security, the number of guards increased, but as we can see, this was not enough, the white house says that for a presidential candidate, it is enough, that in in principle, they are not... they are not provided with any protection at the level of, for example, the president

or the vice president of the united states, but many republicans and generally outsiders are calling on the white house to really increase the number of bodyguards, because in general, if this political violence continues at such a high level, then the reputation of the united states will be under great threat, the reputation of the state is, which is democratic, as we see direct... interference of external factors in the internal political process in the election campaign. let's change the topic a little, move on to another block. the other day it was made public that was called the peace plan of jady vance, who is a vice presidential candidate on donald trump's team. there he laid out his vision, how he sees the end of the russian-ukrainian war. and in particular, he says that it is necessary to create some... demilitarized zone along the current demarcation line, along the current front line

in the war. he writes, in particular, he said in an interview: trump sits down and says to the russians, the ukrainians and the europeans, you guys have to figure out what a peaceful settlement looks like, and it probably looks like the current line demarcation between russia and ukraine, which is becoming demilitarized. zone end of quote. that is, in fact, it is about a kind of freezing of the conflict, isn't it? that is, this front line is frozen, a demilitarized zone is created. with the removal of weapons there and so on, something is catching your eye here, in general, what do you think of this idea? this idea is not new, it is voiced by jaydy vance, but it has been voiced by many academics and experts, last year for example there was an article in foreign affairs, and this idea is generally described as an attempt to repeat the korean scenario, that is, the scenario in which,

after a long war, it seems that there is a recognition that none. cannot achieve any decisive victory, and with the help of external actors of great powers, then it was the united states and the soviet union, and now it may be the united states and china, there is reconciliation between these two sides, but not reconciliation as a political solution to the conflict, and reconciliation in the sense of defining the signing of a cease-fire agreement, which also provides for certain elements of how relationships are regulated. between the two sides there is the presence of observers, for example, in this demilitarized zone in order to warn of the possibility of a resumption of hostilities, so a whole package of actions related to stopping hostilities in the first place, and this is explained in general by many experts who advocate this idea is humanitarian, and humanitarian factors,

first of all, that is, we are talking about the fact that we see that a large number of ukrainians have died. already during the war, and due to the fact that there is no quick solution to the war, it is likely that large numbers will be killed in the future, so the best-case scenario, or the best-of-worst-case scenario that is realistic for many analysts, is to stop hostilities now and sign such a ceasefire. when they talk about the demilitarized zone, they immediately come to mind. by the way, i was there once in the south and north, but this zone has existed for more than 70 years since 1953, in fact the conflict will freeze and in ukraine it may last for many, many decades, as

the korean scenario shows, should that be scary ukrainians, these are the proposals. in fact, this is, no, no, the worst, the worst development, the worst development could be if russia uses this ceasefire period to rebuild its military power, buy more missiles in iran and north korea and start a new round of aggression against ukraine already in the coming years, it is possible to prevent this in only two ways: the first way is to include ukraine in nato, the second way is to deploy american or western military bases on the territory of ukraine. however , neither the first nor the second scenario, which can be used to prevent the future new aggression of russia against ukraine, is not supported by either jd vance or donald trump. jady vance directly

said that we want to make ukraine neutral, and this will be part of the agreement. ukraine should become a neutral state. and of course j.d. vance and donald trump are opposed to expanding the military presence in the world, in particular in ukraine, in order not to waste resources on a country that, in their opinion, does not belong to them. belongs to the sphere of key national interests of the united states. so, it seems to me that the key, key problem of this plan is precisely the lack of answers to the question of how to restrain russia already in the near future. look, indeed, jd vance is proposing ukraine's withdrawal from nato membership. should this also frighten ukrainians, it is not enough that there is some kind of demilitarized zone, the freezing of the conflict, and also the rejection of nato, of security guarantees, of course, and this is actually demonstrating that for jd vance and donald trump, maybe this plan is a plan

to solve the problem for the period of their administration, for the period of four years. maybe eight years, that is, the horizon of their strategizing is quite limited, it is limited by their own political career, but they do not look at what long-term consequences this plan may have for ukraine, what risks it creates for ukrainian security, and in this from this point of view, it undoubtedly causes for kyiv, for official kyiv and for ukrainians it should cause a lot of concern, it is also important... to note that if you compare the korean scenario with ukraine, in the case of korea it was about a civil war, and which one was about the question of what... the future korean state will be, we remember we believe that the war itself began after the japanese occupation of the korean peninsula ended. in the case of ukraine , it is about external aggression, about the aggression

of one state against another state. therefore, if we sign a treaty that gives part of the territories to this other state, we in fact, we legalize such forms of external aggression by states, neighboring states against each other, and... other states, that in principle it is possible to start new wars, and they can receive certain territorial gains from these wars, so this is a plan, it will have wider negative consequences for the entire international system. and also, and more, jaydy vance, speaking about non-membership in nato, adds that non-membership in other allied institutions as well, what is it about, about the european union, in general , about europe, but what about the maidan in ukraine? the war for europe, the european future of ukraine, ukraine's membership, european integration into the eu, that is, in general, does the eu also mean that ukraine

should not be in the european union? well, it's quite possible that we don't know the details of what jaydy vance is proposing, maybe he's really talking about the european union, it's not really up to jaydy vance to decide whether ukraine will be a member of the european union or not, even if he's the vice president, but here too it is important to note that...jadi vance has recently been articulating such radical proposals, ideas from which donald trump sometimes distances himself. for example, during the last debate, donald trump was asked if he would implement a national ban, a blanket national ban on abortion that jaydee vance is proposing, and trump said, i 've never talked about that with jaydee vance, i don't know about what he says, i.e. jady vance, he has his audience, he speaks to such a core. of the conservative wing of the republican party, which would be called maga, the maga wing, that is, the wing of those who support the slogan of donald trump,

to make america greater, it's quite this kind of environment, it's quite this right-wing, ultra-right environment, and donald trump understands that this environment needs to be talked to, and maybe jaydee vance is the person who appeals to that environment in the beginning before the election and . before the election itself, but everything that jade wen says does not mean that donald trump shares these ideas and that he will somehow implement them. i also watched an interview with general mcmaster, he was an adviser to donald trump when he was president on of national security, he says so, he directly said: jd vance's plan is a plan to make ukraine a vassal of russia. and what do the americans say? in general, what does the survey say, how, how this plan, how these ideas of jay vance are perceived by americans? so, there is actually some division among the republicans. one of

the polls, which was conducted in january of this year, shows that those republicans who support donald trump are significant, they are largely in favor of ending aid to ukraine, and the rest of the republicans are on the contrary divided bisected, roughly split in half, with respect to support. ukraine, so again, the core of trump's supporters, they are quite skeptical about ukraine, but in general , the last poll, which was conducted in august of this year, it shows that the absolute majority of americans, more than 60%, they sympathize with ukraine in the war with russia, they would like or seek the victory of ukraine, but there is a difference in how republicans and democrats look at helping ukraine, so. and when voters were asked how long the united states should have to support ukraine, the majority of democrats, more than 60% said that

it is necessary to support ukraine as much as necessary. at the same time, more than 50% of republicans, republican respondents, said that it is necessary to support ukraine for about one to two years, so the level of support, on the one hand, all... ukraine, on the other hand, the willingness to pay for this support, it differs depending depending on which political camp you belong to. but one more nuance is important here. this survey also asked about how much the respondents favor the idea of ​​negotiations, whether the united states is needed, whether the united states should try to organize negotiations between ukraine and the russian federation, and on this issue both democrats and republicans gave. about the same answer, the absolute majority say that negotiations should be held, and they are favorable to the idea of ​​negotiations, and it seems to me that it is this,

this, this, this opinion of... this intention that donald trump is responding to in because he talks about what he is going to plant zelenskyi and putin to the negotiating table and force them to come to an agreement. kamela harris and joe biden are not talking about negotiations. this topic does not appear in their campaign speeches. only donald trump is talking about this, and he appeals to a large part of americans who, in principle, are absolutely not against this happening, as we can see from the polls. yes, it just says here, you mentioned, the negotiations between ukraine and russia. and so to speak, so that america pushes them, as donald trump sees it, but donald trump is younger, his son and former democrat robert kennedy, jr., who supports donald trump, they published an article saying that there should be talks between moscow and washington, american-russian talks, how to end the war in ukraine, that is, america and russia, how to end the war in

ukraine that we have. we have a violation of the principle: nothing about ukraine without ukraine, right? absolutely, and it fits into the logic of this korean scenario that i was talking about, because as we remember when the cessation agreement was signed after the fire in order to stop the korean war, south korean representatives actually refused to sign it, it was signed by the united states, but not by south korea. precisely because they considered the guarantees that were included in this treaty insufficient, they did not want to give up those territories, so the korean scenario involves first of all a certain agreement between the great powers, and the imposition of this agreement on those parties that are considered weaker, and the problem, as i already mentioned, is in duplicating or modeling the end

the russian-ukrainian war according to the korean scenario. it is precisely that then, in this case now, the united states would have to negotiate with an aggressor, with an aggressor country whose actions they have repeatedly condemned, so if we imagine imagine that trump and vance actually win, they come to the white house , they still have to continue a certain diplomatic line that the united states has been building for many years with regard to the russian federation, they cannot simply cross out everything that was said. and the positions that the united states has taken in the international arena, so there must be a certain tolerance, and it seems to me that we should also be quite careful to evaluate the statements of the son of donald trump and robert kennedy, because in principle, although they are close to donald trump, but still remain rather marginal figures in terms of influence on real politics, and it is unlikely that the ideas they express will actually be

implemented. if trump becomes president of the united states. sure, thank you very much. he helped us to understand the staffing situation of the american election races at this week's stage, professor of political science at belar university in texas serhii kudelya. sergey, thank you very much. it was a video podcast program, a weekly video podcast state situation from radio liberty. rostislav khotyn was with you. it's all good. join the ranks of the 100th separate mechanized brigade of the armed forces of ukraine. protect yours. the result of their work is our safety. they, the boys from volyn, proved that everyone can be a warrior, strong in spirit, they value the ability to stand side by side with their fellow men, right up to holy victory everyone who pilots a uav understands it, prepares, treats, repairs, winds kilometers of roads, fills piles

of documents, significantly strengthens. who covers the enemy with torrential fire and returns meter by meter our native land. join the ranks of the 100th separate mechanized brigade of the armed forces of ukraine. let's stick together. 10th opportunity. time to find out what is happening in ukraine and the world. at this time, khrystyna parubiy works in the studio. congratulations. half an hour ago, explosions rang out in kryvyi rih, the head of the dnipropetrovsk region reported serhiy lysak of the military administration. the russians aimed a rocket at the administrative building. there may be people under the rubble. the air alert in the region continues.