we are talking in 15 minutes with our experts oleg sahakyan and maksym rozumny, bbc news ahead, stay with you. ukrainian units leave ugledar city of the fortress of the armed forces of ukraine. what will happen to the front now? and what threatens the loss of this city, we analyze in today's edition of the bbc, i'm olga polamaryuk. the situation around the coal miner began to deteriorate in the middle of summer, and many experts at that time predicted the encirclement of the city and its capture - a matter of time. and the day before, several videos appeared on the network, in which russian military personnel from with tricolors on the roofs of destroyed buildings, kremlin propagandists wrote that the city was being cleaned up, but it is still too early to talk about the complete takeover of the coal plant. it's too early, and

already today the ukrainian military command announced the withdrawal from the coal mine. units of the armed forces of ukraine are being withdrawn due to the threat of complete encirclement and to preserve personnel. this is the official explanation. in order to capture ugledar, a once 1,500-year-old city in donetsk region, the russians sent their most capable units. after several unsuccessful attempts, they tried to capture the city called a boiler. the core of the vogledar defense was the 72nd separate mechanized brigade of the zso. they do not comment on the situation there. battles for the city of fortetsya lasted 25 months. so why were the russians so eager to capture the city, why is the ugledar so important to them? let's look together in the material of my colleagues. nowadays, ughledar is known in the world as one of the hot spots of the russian-ukrainian war. in fact, it's a small mining town that was home to about 15,000 people before the full-scale invasion. workers of two mines mainly lived in the city. south donbass

number one and number three. for more than two years, and to be precise, 25 months, the russian side did not stop trying to seize this town. ukrainian troops successfully repelled the attacks. one of the first fiercest battles for coal took place back in november of the 22nd year. then the russians stormed the village of pavlivka 2 km from the city, suffering huge losses of personnel and equipment. at the end of january of the 23rd year, ugledar. bakhmut became the main target of attacks by russian troops in donbas. in recent months, the russian army began to surround the city, seizing the neighboring ones village prichystivka and water station were the last outpost on the approach to the ugledar. in addition, the russian troops actually razed the city to dust, dropping it with guided aerial bombs. there is probably not a single surviving building left in the coal mine. these satellite images show how the city has changed. the picture

on the left is the city in september 21st, the picture on the right is september 24th, it is solid ruins and almost complete absence of vegetation. why was carbon so important? first of all, because of its favorable geographical location? it is at a height, has a favorable location on the battlefield. this is a high-rise building on an elevated plain. in addition, it is an important railway transport hub. proximity to occupied donetsk. can provide an opportunity for the russians to deliver weapons to the front from the southern direction, in particular from the crimea through the kerch bridge. two years ago , after so-called referendums, the kremlin unilaterally declared the donetsk region of ukraine a part of russia, along with the luhansk, zaporizhia and kherson regions, despite the fact that the russian federation controlled only part of them territory, but now, as dibstate analysts noted, with the capture of the coal miner , the russian federation also gained control over the entire volnovasky district. daughters now

analysts say that the russians were able to capture ugledar due to a change in tactics. frontal assaults did not bring success, then the russian command decided to bypass the city from the flanks. my fellow bbc correspondent oleh chernysh has been following the situation around the coal miner and explains how events have developed over the past two years. as of the beginning of october , we can state that the city of vogladai really is almost. completely or already completely under the control of russian troops, the ukrainian side does not officially comment on this situation, although it can be noted that, for example, in the morning summary of the general staff on october 2, ugleday is not mentioned, the battles near ugleday are not mentioned, it is mentioned that the russians advanced to the village , which is further, further north to the epiphany, but russian sources, russian brigades, i note, not the ministry of defense of russia, but russian... brigades in social networks and

the so-called war corps, they have already pollinated the video from the so-called to speak of russian control over the eastern, western and central parts of ugledar, that is... it can be said that they took control of the city without a fight, accordingly, this means that the ukrainian troops left it early in order not to be encircled, let me remind you, such a threat was quite real , since about 10 days ago, the situation rapidly worsened and the russian military began to gradually surround the city from the eastern and western flanks, so the actual prospect of encirclement. forces was quite real, but as we can see, this did not happen, they managed to get out, but nevertheless, the city, which held the defense for quite a long time, is now lost to ukraine. if we talk about the importance of the coal mine itself, then it should be noted that this city was held by the ukrainian

military for more than two years, in fact, after the start of a full-scale aggression, it was on these lines that the russian offensive was stopped after the capture of volnovat. and the zones of mariupol, and ughledai actually became the fortress that was the main, the main logistical point in the southern donbass for ukraine. moreover, next to it are the buildings of two large mines, this is southern donbaska number three, conducted donbaska number one, which were also under the control of ukrainians and were also used specifically for military purposes, in particular for reconnaissance and control of the area there, er, and one more important. volnovakha, this city captured by the russians at the very beginning of the great war, is a fairly large railway junction, which russia planned and apparently plans to use for its logistics on the azov coast, but

due to the proximity of volnovakha to the coal-mining they could not use it at full capacity, especially since, well, accordingly, any echelons with ammunition there would automatically come under... the fire of ukrainian artillery, that is, in order to secure the south of donbas and the azov region, the russians had an obligation it is necessary to capture volhyd, and in fact they have been doing it for the past 2.5 years, we can recall the extremely powerful, it was even called by the western forces the largest tank battle in this war, the assault on the coal mine, which took place in january, february 2023, and which was repulsed by the ukrainian army , in particular the 72nd brigade from... the armed forces of ukraine and which actually held this city until the last moment. you can read more about the importance of bugledar, his long defense, in the article by oleg chernysh, as well as by abdujalil abdurasolov on our website bbc.ua. the title of the article: russia seized coal, how did it happen and what will happen

next? actually, this is what we are talking about with our next guest. military analyst serhii grabsky joins the broadcast. mr. serhiy, welcome, thank you for joining. but ugledar is the height, the admiration of the city, what does it give to russians? you know, you already are voiced the fact that what this gives the russians, you need to be aware of the following: the height is a tactical advantage, an advantage on this part of the front, and it cannot have any operational consequences, so another populated place is captured, so the troops have withdrawn, ah , ensuring... the preservation of human and combat potential, but here , in the previous speech , the importance of ugledar was also noted from the point of view of ensuring the transit of russians on the southern front, and that is why we are talking about volnovakha as a key position on this part of the front,

because with the loss of the ugledar, we really lose control over the possibility of making it impossible, excuse me for such taftology, and the transfer of enemy troops and... resources to the southern part of the front, i would rather not say here about the supply of weapons and human resources from the crimea, to the crimean direction , in the direction of zaporozhye, and unfortunately, one must realize that precisely the loss of this position seriously complicates, let's say, the life of our servicemen, seriously complicates the possibility of conducting defensive and offensive operations in the future, precisely on in the southern direction, and that is why... certain such information messages are being heard about the possible aggravation of the situation in the zaporizhzhia direction, so it is necessary to talk about the seriousness of the loss of the scout, but not in a tactical perspective, because it is unlikely to happen in the next week, two or three months will it

affect the development of the situation, and we are talking about the threat of a negative development of the operational situation, so the question arises, is it possible? and so be the collapse of the front? no, i repeat now, we we are talking about tactical consequences, and today it makes no sense to talk about the collapse of the front. ugh. put these efforts into an extremely high resource, he still needs to recover a little, they simply cannot physically, it is not impossible, to maintain a high tempo of the offensive is endless, there must be certain pauses for regrouping, strengthening their positions, troops and so on, but i repeat once again from an operational point of view, that is, after a certain time, a month, two or three, maybe in the spring, this... will negatively affect the development events in the southern direction, yes, we

heard from colleagues how the city was captured, this is how my colleague oleg chernysh spoke about it, but if we take a step back, if it was possible to hold the ugladar, well, you know, it is very difficult a question to which you and i will not find an answer now, because in order to draw such a conclusion that it was possible or impossible to hold back, we have... a certain amount of information, and this and that amount , which you and i own, which we own, well, he literally makes up five, a maximum of 6% of what was in place, you can endlessly, you know, delve into the details, who moved where, where, where, who was changed, what could be done, could it be strengthened, how could it be prevented, but today it is very difficult to say whether it can be done, the more, the more, let's realize that the enemy, for two years, clearly understood the importance of this particular location, therefore, not

counting any losses, according to some informants, according to some reports, the enemy in order to achieve this goal put there are several brigades on the fields in front of the viewer, at least, that is, the losses of the enemy from the point of view of common sense or a civilized approach to fighting are disproportionate to the results for today, but the enemy does not avoid this, they climb, climb and continue forward. and you know, when the ratio of forces and resources is, let's say, one to 10, sorry, this is a guaranteed advantage, well, try to stand, even if you are some outstanding master of martial arts one to 10, this is unreal in our life, in cinema, maybe in life no. sergey grabsky, a military expert was on our air, mr. sergey, thank you for the conversation. oleg chernysh analyzes what threatens ukraine with the takeover of the coal industry. it is extremely difficult to say what will happen next, i will explain why, there are actually two

options for the further, further development of events, er, some experts, and the military themselves, predict with a certain peres that a repetition of the audio scenario is possible, let me remind you that in february this year, the russians, after long-term assaults, took control of avdiyivka, the ukrainians managed to get out, they did not get encircled and and... the western soviets built a line of defense, but it did not last long, literally a month or a half later, the russians broke through this line of defense and actually reached pokrovsk, having covered 30-35 km, that is , the situation is as follows, that the very departure from the city has to be on prepared lines, to be held by prepared brigades, perhaps even reinforced by reserves, if not, the retreat itself could provoke further destruction. sections of the front, defenses on this section of the front, and this danger actually exists, obviously

now the next line of defense will be near the villages of novaukrainka and bogoyavlenka, which are located northwest of the coal mine, and here and there there are fortifications prepared in advance for the defense of the border, but again the question is whether there are forces, whether there are prepared brigades, whether it will hold and the 72nd brigade itself has been tortured in battles , i wonder if it will last... there are some new brigades that do not have combat experience and can simply run away from the fire of the russians, that is, this is the main question, it looks in itself, of course it was a symbol, this was come on, but his capture does not give any obvious bonuses, well, of course, except for the moral relations that are victorious for the russians, it does not give obvious bonuses for advancement at the front, however, if they manage to advance further north, then they will actually go to the rear of our ukrainian group , which is defended by kurakhovo, and then the situation will of course

be extremely, extremely difficult, and that's all for today, look for more stories on our website bbc.ua, and turn on the program tomorrow at 9:00, exclusively on our channel, congratulations, friends, on the air about... the most relevant topics of the week for nato member countries are huge arsenals, and russia is already on the verge of exhausting its resources. topics that resonate in our society. this is the question of trump's victory, what is it, an analysis of the processes that change the country and each of us, what else can the russians do, are they able to use, say, the resources of the lukashenko army allied with them? vitaly portnikov and the guests of the project, read all of solzhin, accept my speech, thank you, it was difficult, but i was just interested, but this is absolutely

it, help to understand the present and predict the future, offered a project for the interested and thinking politclub every sunday at 20:00 for espresso after including a bilateral security agreement with us. congratulations, friends, the second part of the verdict program is live on the espresso tv channel. my name is serhii rudenko, and in the second part of our program we will talk about the following. movement according to the plan of victory. zelensky hopes to force putin to make peace. what to expect from the next quadrilateral meeting of the leaders of the usa, germany, france and britain

ramstein? as during the cold war, russia is preparing for a long one. confrontation with the united states, how long will the russian determination to raise the stakes in the confrontation with nato last. pre-election movements. the cec restored the registration of permanent polling stations in the state register of voters. is there any reason to talk about the preparation of the president's office for the elections in 2025. friends, we are working live on the tv channel. espresso, as well as on our youtube and facebook platforms. for those who are watching us live right now, be there please subscribe to our pages, be sure to like this video, and also take part in our survey. today we ask you the following: do you think presidential elections in the 25th year are possible? yes, no, everything is quite simple on youtube,

unequivocal answers: yes, no, and my own opinion, if there is one. want to express it, please write it in the comments below the video, we read your comments, we are interested to know your opinion, if you watch us on tv, pick up your smartphone or phone and vote by numbers, if you do you think it is possible to hold presidential elections in the 25th year 0800 211 381 or 0800 211382, all calls to these numbers are free, vote at the end of the program, let's sum up the results of this vote. i would like to introduce today's guest of our studio, this is maksym rozumny, political expert, doctor of political sciences. mr. maksym, i congratulate you, thank you for joining the broadcast. congratulations, congratulations. oleg sahakyan, political scientist, co-founder of the national platform for sustainability and cohesion. mr. oleg, i congratulate

you and thank you for being with us today. councils see and hear each other. well, since, gentlemen, we ask. our viewers and tv viewers about what they think about the presidential elections next year, as predicted by the british weekly the economist, and the british write that such elections are possible in ukraine, referring to their sources in the headquarters, even ukrainian politicians, what do you think , as far as possible and under what conditions, let's first answer this question in the format of a bliss survey and continue this topic already during the program, mr. maxim. yes, i would said that the issue here is, on the one hand, complicated, because a lot of factors must be taken into account, and on the other hand, it is simple, since the answer to it is clear, so it is possible, possible presidential elections in the 25th year, but if, relatively speaking, in the fall ,

in the winter, in the near future, there will be a... the beginning of the conflict on the front line, which many other experts are talking about, well, i would like to mention that our government, as you know, did not plan military forces for the second half of the 24th spending, so i think that probably this is also a signal that the war phase is active can end at any moment, it is obvious that the future elections depend on it, which... the election campaign is clear, which will start immediately with the end of martial law. thank you, mr. oleg. well, obviously, hypothetically they are. possible, if we are talking about laboratory conditions and considering the whole range of options, it is clear that if the war ends, if the conditions are secure,

if many different aspects and a whole constellation of factors are put together in a design that makes elections possible, then they will take place, but if you ask, and how likely, i am i would say extremely low, at the moment the situation with military dynamics and with geopolitical dynamics... it does not indicate that such conditions will be created, so i think that this story about the holding of elections will fill itself, moreover, four times in time full-scale invasion of russia into ukraine, they already talked about the possibility of holding elections, they were supposed to take place in the spring of 23, they did not take place in the fall of the 23, spring of the 24, now the fall of the 24, and now they are again talking about the 25 , about the possibility of holding elections in the spring. i think there is a high probability that it is will be the fifth date when elections will not be held. why, why are we talking about this today, not only, thanks to british

journalists, this topic got into our program, but there are other facts and factors that allow us to talk about it and discuss this topic. well, in particular, the central election commission resumed the work of the state register of voters in terms of registration. permanent polling stations, they explained that this is regular planned work that is carried out constantly, but we understand that the regularity of the work of the central election commission, it also is also dictated by the regularity of elections, otherwise the work of election commissions and the reconciliation of these registers and voters and polling stations, well, it is absolutely some kind of monkey work, because i... whatever, if there are no elections, then in principle, obviously, there is no such thing work, and if it exists, then it indicates that

such elections may take place, yesterday dmytro razumkov, people's deputy of ukraine and former speaker of the ukrainian parliament, was on the air of our tv channel, i asked him about whether there are talks about holding presidential elections next... year, and he said that some headquarters, even of potential candidates, are already talking about the creation of back offices, let's listen to what razimko said, as far as i know, i'm still not really involved in election processes, i definitely don't contract anyone and i don't build them headquarters, because today other challenges face all adequate people in ukraine, i repeat once again, but... talks about the fact that backoffices have already appeared in the op continue and there are such conversations that people have already started working, well time will show how

true this is, but razumkov says that such back offices are created, i don't know, gentlemen, you also probably consult various politicians and various political forces, perhaps you know, regarding the possibility of contracting, or proposals. regarding the next presidential election, and perhaps more so than razumkov, who, by the way, 5 years ago was engaged in political technology, and his main political technology was precisely the servant of the people, against which he is now so actively opposing, mr. maksym, no, they did not contact me, and in my circle of communication i did not hear about the formation of headquarters, contracting of specialists and something similar, but uh... in the media environment , i have already heard about the appearance of offers of political advertising, that is, this can be considered an indirect sign of this, in general, we

can of course argue on the uh theory, on facts and so on, but i would turn attention to such indirect instructions that can tell us the probability or improbability, the fact is... that when people pay money with some invest money in some risky projects, then they probably find out the future fate of their investments, their investments, that is that, for example, the fact that the ukraina hotel in the center of kyiv was recently privatized, the fact that politicians are starting to invest money in their promotion, i think this shows that... they have some information that maybe we, like experts are independent and, so to speak, equally distant from political

headquarters, maybe not... we act, so i immediately warn that i proceed from open data, open data. thank you, mr. maksym, mr. oleg. well, let's come with you just a little from the other side and look at this one situation, and because of the experience we already have, announcing a number of times that elections will take place. 100%, and if this time there is still no evidence that the headquarters are really being deployed, there are only certain rumors, then there was already a situation in the past when even the headquarters were actually deployed by party, the lists were checked when they were already preparing for the elections, and it was difficult not to notice, orders and renovations were already coming out in the market of political services.

electoral maps and many other moments, that is, the preparation for the elections was real, and in the end, it ended with a chip, no elections were held, and before the 24th, in the winter , president zelenskyy came out, said, what are you talking about, what elections, who is talking about elections, he is irresponsible, and the list goes on, and everything stopped. why does this happen? first, in terms of power, you have political power, the servant of the people. well, there isn’t any, really neither an ideological nor a party branched system, which would be cemented by something other than power ratings and orientation to one surname, zelensky personally, you need to unite somehow this team, from time to time to warm up the engine of the car called the servant of the people, which is parked in the garage, so that it does not run away, so that they do not run away, so that they do not start

looking for themselves. other marriages under other brands for the upcoming election cycle, this is quite a reasonable decision to restrain and charge, to unite your team, in which there are no other ideological, let me repeat, programmatic or other conflicts. second, you are opposition forces that want to change the government, and you understand that other mechanisms, unless you have an election to come to power, you... will be interested in having the election, of course, whether your sponsors of the political forces, your party members, are interested in having the election, of course, because otherwise, what's the point they should be your political force, so as soon as there are reasons that elections are possible, will you launch such a plan, or will you activate your party network so that suddenly there will be elections, of course you will, because in the first case both the government and the opposition,

the process itself is... profitable for you without a relative to whether there will be elections or not. three points: are you as party workers, for example, and political technologists, full-time staff, apparatchiks, interested in making everyone think that there will be elections? of course, because then the money comes in to update those listings, to do local outreach to update your capabilities, to identify where you can advertise, who it is...doing the layout, everything else, that's it the ability to master certain budgets, will you start at any signal that an election may take place, of course because you are interested in it, this is how self-fulfilling progeny works, as soon as information appears that elections may be held, a whole series of subjects who have a vested interest in this begin to act as if elections will take place, and then others look and say, there is information that elections may take place, there are steps

by a number of subjects who usually move, elections are taking place, or maybe they will actually take place, so now all this information is from the inside, it is not evidence that the elections will definitely take place, we are looking at the military the situation, we look at the security, we look geopolitical, and we understand that there is no real window now for the holding of elections, all this activation is foreign political, connected primarily with the elections in the united states and uncertainty with the potential arrival of trump, which, of course, creates a tribula and creates on the table ot.. . positions in the form of whether the war will not end, or whether there will be a freeze, and whether there will be any negotiations, and then, accordingly, the question of elections will arise, then perhaps it is necessary to prepare for it, so for now it is more likely for now air trade, and a response to external political uncertainty within the united states and around the united states in the context of the russo-ukrainian war than indeed how