a whole series of subjects that usually move when elections take place, or maybe they actually take place. therefore, now all this information is from the inside, it is not evidence that the elections will definitely take place. we look at the military situation, we look at the security situation, we look at the geopolitical situation, and we understand that there is no real window for holding elections. all this activation is foreign policy related, first of all, to the elections in the united states and the uncertainty with the potential arrival of trump, which, of course, creates. and creates on the table is a position in the form of whether or not the war will end, or whether there will be a freeze, or whether there will be some negotiations, and then, accordingly, the question of elections will arise, then maybe it is necessary to prepare for it, so at the moment it is rather air trade for now , and a reaction to the external political uncertainty inside the united states and around the united states in the context of the russian-ukrainian war, than really, as a strategic calculation inside

and really the preparation of elections already as a key, main scenario. thank you, mr. oleg, but here well, it is clear that if such rumors are circulating, then it is logical, probably, to give an answer to the main question, and for whom such elections are necessary in the 25th year, who, who is generally counting, well, in the presidential elections, for sure, who claims to become the head ukrainian state. the verkhovna rada obviously, obviously, this political schedule will become clear a little later, although there is a closed sociology, i heard about it about political parties, about hypothetical political projects, and zaluzhnyi, and budanov's hypothetical political project, and there are even sociological data about the fact that or whether they will get to the verkhovna rada or not, i will not spoil it and i will not. these closed data

should be made open, but the very fact that such data exists, and what concerns the presidential elections, mr. maksym, is it important for president zelensky to do this next year and whether the president will lose his popularity or gain popularity, is it important for him to go through this window of opportunity and take the second step to the presidency after 2019, is it so important now for the office of the president? i here, maybe i would talk about two points, one technical, and one actually such a content-political, internal political one. the technical point is that we can talk about elections in 2025. in two

options, actually, or if, uh, the hot phase of the war stops, and martial law is abolished, and everything happens according to the current legislation and according to political logic, but there is another option, which actually, last time, when there were rumors about the next regular elections, it was the authorities. categorically denied the possibility holding elections during martial law, theoretically it can be justified, because there is a possibility that the war will not end in the 24th year, nor in the 25th, nor in the 26th, and you can refer to the experience of countries that are in permanent, so to speak , conflicts, well, israel is in... for example, in

such a conflict that is hot enough, but this does not mean that elections should no longer be held in the country at all, so this can be an argument for holding elections during martial law with the use, for example, the mechanism of electronic voting, that is, i say this simply so that we understand the fork of opportunities and take them. different options are taken into account, but if we return to the content of such an internal political situation, directly answer the question of what the government can count on, what it cannot count on, then first of all it should be noted that the possible elections will be a vote of confidence or no confidence in the government, and our government today is very personalized, i.e. to volodymyr zelenskyi and his entourage.

which everyone understands in their own way, but which is a factor of ukrainian politics, obviously. therefore, of course, the calculation here is very simple. the government, represented by volodymyr zelenskyi and zelenskyi's potential presidential candidate, must confirm that it works for the benefit of ukraine and that it is effective. in this context, there are two big risks for the current government and for potential presidential candidate zelenskyi. firstly, this is the 2025 budget, in which, as we hear... there have already been very significant reductions in all social benefits that is actually a very, you know, tough budget that few people in this country will be happy with, let's say this is one risk factor, the second risk factor

is, if the war is ended or put on hold, then on what terms, e- there are? potentially, this can also cause very big claims and questions to the current president, these two risk factors, i think, will be calculated in the political headquarters of the current government, and depending on this, they will obviously make a decision to facilitate the holding of elections in the near future, or to postpone them still this one the process, well, it is obvious, mr. maksym and mr. olezh, that the victory plan that zelenskyi and yarmak brought to washington can also be perceived as a part, let's say , a part, a large part of the political activities of the current team, because in the united

states america, i think they have their own plan to fight russia, and it is, well, clear, at least to them, and they follow that logic, and our plan will win. it depends on their plan for victory, and it is absolutely obvious, on their plans, because ukraine has been politicized enough the question is that there is a plan for victory, and yarmak and zelensky flew to the united states of america, ukrainians did not hear or see this plan for victory, although this plan for victory, of course, corresponds to putin's plan for victory or pacification. is in the united states of america, yermak, upon returning from the united states of america, said that this victory plan would be presented to the ukrainians, except for some secret separate parts, which apparently relate to weapons, and the list of weapons that

ukraine is counting on. mr. oleg, should i to expect from this plan the victories that we... obviously, we will see either this week or next week, and it will be presented to us whether we should expect something extraordinary, whether in the current situation the position of the ukrainian leadership has been articulated many times, which we we strive, the west is not yet ready to accept the plan for the victory of ukraine, which is a plan for the defeat of russia, they are only preparing... to talk about the plan for the victory of ukraine, and are not ready to talk about the defeat of russia, and this may be the main reason, that is, that it can be a manifesto and just that the wish of the ukrainian side, which is unlikely to be realized by our western partners,

well, let's look at october 12 and ramstein, who will also gather the leader of the united states, biden and the president. zelenskyi, who is announced as somewhat breakthrough, serious. it is obvious that zelenskyy stated before that that diplomacy and force should go hand in hand and that is the only way they work together. that is, it is obvious that there will be certain details, let's say, of those agreements that were reached in washington. based on biden's recent tweet, then it is possible to assume that something, something serious will be said there. perhaps for part of the billions, the invitation of ukraine to nato, and perhaps for the permission of our partners to strike deep into russia, not the united states, but european partners, and the united states will say that they are not against it, i think that biden until the end of the election campaign such a decisive step will not

be taken, perhaps some other positions will appear now not in the budget terms, but in 8 plus in a specific amount. and the dates of the supply of the necessary armaments to ukraine, including airplanes, these are also air defense systems, these are a number of positions that today are routine expenditure materials for war for ukraine, which are sorely lacking, let me begin. or from anti-aircraft needs, completing just a projectile, all this can be voiced, and it is obvious that this is also part of this victory plan, but at the same time i would really caution against inflated expectations, and here i agree with your assessment that i do not i think that there will be something that can fundamentally surprise ukrainian society and differ from what we have already heard from the ukrainian authorities, it is necessary it seems to me to assess this victory plan adequately. but the tasks for which he first of all, this is not a plan for the victory of ukraine as such, but

it is a plan to support the victory of ukraine by the united states. he sharpened himself clearly under biden and under the candidates for the presidency of the united states. because the first task was to intercept the agenda and set the necessary messages and narratives for ukraine for the american internal discussion before the visit. the states talked about possible compromises with russia, what putin would agree to, what they could offer him, what they would be negotiations, if trump comes, and whether kamela harris will not want to intensify negotiations with russia, and the ukrainian role in this, what would the ukrainian society, the ukrainian authorities agree to, this discussion was about compromises, after the kurdish operation, ukraine had to fix a political and symbolic capital from the winning operation of ukraine. and impose a discussion about the victory of ukraine, whether ukraine is capable of winning, what the states can do in order for ukraine

to win, what weapons to give, whether the candidates will dare to do this, whether biden will take this step, everything it became discussions on american television, experts are asked, candidates are asked, and the scandalousness of trump and his outbursts, and then insults on the air in one night, they only added attention to the ukrainian topic here, and the trouble helped, and ukraine pushed even the topic of the middle east. for a certain time inside the american political discourse, which seemed at all unlikely, so the pr politico-technological task has already been completed, the second part is part of the steps that are programmed in this plan, which fall first of all, for the period after the election of a new president, when biden will still be the current president, but it will already be clear what the configuration is in the american parliament, in the congress and in the senate, in both chambers, and who will be... the new resident of the white house, and then biden can dare to take those decisive steps that he did not take before

due to not giving grounds for trump to attack kamalukharis now, due to the fact that he hoped for a second term and the implementation of a broader long-term strategy, due to personal fears , many other things that will already lose its relevance, since it is obvious to everyone that biden will leave his political career, and now he needs to have time... to take certain decisive steps, which may even be perceived ambiguously electorally today, but will become his historical legacy. perhaps some of them are programmed in this negotiation plan, it would be logical. therefore, october 12 is the first date, the second date is the end of the elections in the united states and after that until the month of january is the period when this victory plan will be able to work, but its task it is definitely not possible to change the course of the war to a fundamental one and... and to convince everyone in everything, it is very precise and very mechanical, now directed at specific tasks. thank you, mr. olezh, you

reminded me of this date: october 12, a four -way meeting of the leaders of great britain, germany, france and the united states of america, which will take place, and obviously, before this meeting, and before all possible options, the results of this meeting. it is also in moscow, because during zelensky's stay in the united states of america, putin is demonstratively demonstrative changed the nuclear doctrine of deterrence, the concept of the nuclear doctrine of deterrence, and sergey ryabkov, deputy minister of foreign affairs of the russian federation, stated that russia is preparing for a prolonged confrontation with the united states, regardless of the results of the upcoming presidential elections. elections in this country, let's listen to what ryabkov said. i

don't think we should hold out much hope, given the bipartisan anti-russian consensus that has developed in the us. it is necessary to prepare for a long confrontation with this country. we ready for this in every sense, and we send all warning signals to our adversary so that he does not underestimate our determination. mr. maxim. is it about a new cold war or a hot war with the united states? yes, it is an interesting question, but of course it is based on a hypothesis. it is even more difficult than with the ukrainian elections in the 25th year, because there are many options, and about the option of a hot war between russia and the united states, to be honest, it is very difficult to say yet, because this is such an event that radically changes fate, i guess

of human civilization, and perhaps for this... we need to gather separately and thoroughly prepare, but if we talk about the situation in general and return to the plan of president zelensky, the plan for the victory of ukraine and our interest in general in this process, then it is very it is appropriate to mention that player, that actor, about whom we are talking now. about putin, about putin's russia, putin's regime, whatever you want to call it, and when we communicate with our western partners, we understand that we are communicating with them, and obviously, at present at the moment, we do not communicate with the russian side, at least in the formats that existed

back in 2022, our partners communicate with us, with ukraine, and with russia. there is no doubt that there is communication, so to speak, through different channels, but in any case, this communication is, you know, such a confrontation, symbolic, a step of one side, a step of the other, well, in a word, a chessboard, so in this chessboard now, of course, there is a kind of climax in this game of chess, when all the attacking... pieces gather around other people's headquarters, so to speak, around other people's kings, and what can russia threaten the west, we see that it is now raising all its forces, showing determination, but ryabkov's words are direct speech, but there are also corresponding actions,

that is, an increase in russia's military budget for the 25th year. this is a demonstrative increase in the size of the armed forces, this is a change to the concept of using nuclear weapons, in a word, russia demonstrates with all its might the readiness to stand to the end, and on the other hand, how can the west, so to speak, threaten russia, we understand that this russian-ukrainian war showed a huge advantage, technological, resource, any other from... the west over russia, and the west is very dosed and very, so to speak, calculated, strategically, shows its trump cards and its levers of influence. at the moment, he can increase or decrease military support for ukraine. here are these, so to speak,

hesitations, which we regard as the west will not dare. the west is afraid of russia and so on. i think it follows from my analysis of the situation that the west is simply trading with russia. and so to speak, it's such a game that someone is weaker, someone flinches, someone blinks so on. that is, in the west it is still very much in america, including, we are talking about america, there are elections and so on. regardless of the results of the elections, our western partners have serious levers that only they sometimes hint at, well, for example, the admission of ukraine to nato, the increase of military aid to ukraine, president macron even hinted at the deployment of some armed forces, soldiers there , parts, in ukraine, not necessarily

at the front, but in ukraine, that is... it is already straining to the last strength, so to speak, the hand is reaching for the nuclear button, and the west, in the person of america, in particular, is still, so to speak, on the verge of using its main levers to influence the situation, so the situation does not seem to me to be hopeless or losing for the west, but our role in this is quite, so to speak, sacrificial, i would call it that, and... that is, we can only encourage the west not to leave us, to continue, support, maybe increase support. in view of our position and in view of the fact that we remain, so to speak, a faithful ally of the west, this situation, unfortunately, it looks like such a

strategic dynamic, which for us is not completely bad, not completely losing, that is, it does not mean that putin is going to his triumph, but it does not promise us easy times, and a very optimistic forecast. mr. maksym, but we have what we have, mr. oleg, there was information, it is true, it was already denied, but i think that ditsite was not mistaken when it wrote that ulav scholz was going to talk by phone with putin, and if it does not happen before the big twenty, then it will definitely happen on some other day, scholz did not communicate with the russian leader for two years. and with the dictator of russia, but the fact that such information appears and the fact that these channels of communication exist, which

maxim mentioned, we know how the director of the cia communicated with the director of foreign intelligence of russia naryshkin in istanbul, warned them to they did not use nuclear weapons in the 22nd year, but obviously the leaders are also approaching that moment, the leaders of the countries that are now... our partners in the fight against putin in order to start some dialogue with putin, with the kremlin, that it should be for dialogue, what can they talk about? you can, of course, tell a lot of different jokes here, starting with the fact that maybe he was bored for two years, maybe putin had the last word in the last discussion and now scholz just wants to dial and say valdemar you are stupid, don't hang up. and it is possible to find out if there is another oil company in russia that needs another retired german politician on the supervisory board, preparing an airport of departure, well,

such is the tradition of retired german politicians, and scholz is already in five minutes, actually, but this will all be a joke, of course, since it is clear that scholz remains in the coalition for this year after all, and there can be two explanations for such information, the first is that it really is such... women are being prepared, and this is probing the reaction, as both external and internal, in the event that the external situation is calm enough, the internal electoral situation will demonstrate that it allows scholz to make a call, then he can take such a step, it can be a probing on his part, his team. and the second hypothesis, the opposite in that such a call is real was also preparing, but there is a part of the team that is sabotaging him and threw out information specifically in order to disrupt the twin... the position to restore contacts with moscow is irritating and unacceptable to a large part even within the german authorities themselves and in particular in

scholz's entourage. the only thing that is certain is that there is no smoke without fire, and the words that sounded in scholz's office do not indicate that this is fake information. they didn't come out, didn't say specifically, it's a fake, no calls. they started to leave. this suggests that. what indeed, such thoughts were at least being prepared, but the fact that no request has yet been sent to moscow, to the kremlin about such a conversation, suggests that this decision had not yet been made at the time when the information was released to the media, why scholz can go for it, on the one hand , there can be a positive explanation that he wants to demonopolize the opportunities of orbán and other representatives from a conditional collective measure. communicate with putin and then capitalize on it and act as intermediaries and convert it into your political influence, because this is a very toxic position and not everyone

can afford it. scholz may be ready to take on this toxicity and become a communicator from major western countries to moscow, so that he can grope, dial grandfather, poke with a stick and find out whether he is alive or dead, conscious or unconscious, and what putin will tell him and then convey. biden to everyone else. we must realize, be aware that communication channels really exist all the time. not at the level of the first persons, because in this way legitimizations would take place, the exit from isolation, what makes such a call between scholz and putin unprecedentedly dangerous. but channels at the level of special services, at the level of diplomatic agencies, at the level of retired elites, expert middlemen, etc. they are constantly in operation, and there are consultations, and there are certain meetings that take place, all these things happen in all wars, and always these channels are there, and until

the last day of the war they will be. thank you, mr. oleg, for the conversation, oleg sagakyan, maxim rozumny were guests of our program today. thank you, gentlemen, for an interesting conversation. let me remind you that during all our air, we conducted a survey, we asked you, friends, whether you think the presidential elections in 2025 are possible, the results of our television survey, 25% - yes, 75% - no. these are the results of our today. of the television survey, friends, i remind you that we appear on various platforms on the internet, and we are everywhere on all social networks, and on youtube, and also on telegram, on facebook, you can see the list of our resources on the screen now, join our pages , read our news on the website espresso tv, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, we work for you, and watch

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