i think, if you watch us on tv, pick up your smartphone or phone and vote for the numbers. if you think it is possible to hold presidential elections in the 25th year, call 0800-211381 or 0800 211382. all calls to these numbers are free, vote, at the end of the program we will sum up the results of this vote. i want to introduce today's guest of our studio, this is maksym rozumny. political expert, doctor of political sciences. mr. maksym, i congratulate you, thank you for joining the broadcast. congratulations, congratulations. oleg sahakyan, political scientist, co-founder of the national platform of sustainability and cohesion. mr. oleg, i congratulate you and thank you for being with us today. glad to see and hear each other. well, since, gentlemen, we are asking our viewers and tv viewers what they think about the presidential elections next year, as

the british weekly theeconomist predicts and the british write that such elections are possible in ukraine, referring to their sources in the headquarters of even ukrainian politicians, what do you think, to what extent it is possible, and under what conditions, let's first answer in the format of a blitz poll this is a question and we will continue this topic already during the program, mr. maksym, but, well, i would say that... here the question is on the one hand complicated, because you have to take into account a lot of factors, and on the other hand, it is simple, because the answer to i understood him, it is possible, presidential elections in the 25th year are possible, but if, relatively speaking, in the fall, winter, in the near future there will be a freezing of the conflict, along the front line, which many other experts are talking about, well... and i would mentioned that our

government, as you know, for the second half of the 24th year already did not plan military spending, so i think that probably this is also a signal that the active phase of the war can end at any moment, it is obvious that the upcoming elections also depend on this, which, the election campaign, is clearly starting immediately with the end of martial law, thank you, well, it is obvious that hypothetically they are possible, if we are talking about laboratory conditions and consider the whole range of options, it is clear that if the war ends, if the conditions are safe, if many different aspects and a whole constellation factors will be included in the design, which will make the elections possible, then they will take place, but if you ask, what is the probability of this, i will say it is extremely low, at the moment. and the situation with

military dynamics and geopolitical dynamics, it does not indicate that such conditions will be created, so i think that this story about the holding of elections will add to the fact that, four times during the full-scale invasion of russia into ukraine, they already talked about the possibility of holding elections. they were supposed to be in the spring of 23, but did not happen. autumn of the 23rd, spring of the 24th, now autumn of the 24th. and now they are talking about it again the 25th year, about the possibility of holding elections in the spring, i think there is a high probability that this will be the fifth date when the elections will not be held. why, why are we talking about this today not only, thanks to british journalists, this got into our program, but there are other facts and factors that allow us to talk about it and discuss this topic, well, in particular, the central election... commission

resumed the work of the state of the register of voters in the part of the registration of permanent polling stations, they explained that this is a regular scheduled work, which is carried out constantly, but we understand that the regularity of the work of the central election commission is also dictated by the regularity of elections, otherwise the work of election commissions and the reconciliation of these registers and voters and polling stations, well... it is absolutely some kind of monkey work, because if forgive me for this, if there are no elections, then in principle, obviously, there is no such job, and if there is, then this indicates that such elections may be, yesterday on the air of our tv channel was dmytro razumkov, people's deputy of ukraine , and the former speaker of the ukrainian parliament, i asked him about whether you... talks about holding presidential

elections next year, and he said that in some headquarters even. candidates, there is already talk of creating back offices. let's listen to what razumko said. as far as i know, i am still not really involved in election processes, i certainly do not contract anyone and do not build headquarters, because today other challenges face all adequate people in ukraine, i repeat once again, but the conversations about what has already back offices have appeared in the op, they continue and go such conversations that people have already started. to work, well, time will tell to what extent this is true, but razumkov says that such back offices are being created, i don’t know, gentlemen, you also probably consult various politicians and various political forces, maybe you know,

about the possibility of contracting or proposals for of the next presidential elections and perhaps more than razumkov, who, by the way, 5 years ago was just... engaged in political technologies, his main political technology was precisely the servant of the people, against whom he now so actively opposes, mr. maksym, no, i was not approached, and in my circle of communication i did not hear about the formation of headquarters, contracting specialists and anything like that, but in the media environment i have already heard about the appearance of proposals for political advertising, that is, this... can be considered indirect such a sign, in general, of course, we can argue on the theory, on the facts and so on, but i would pay attention to such indirect indications that can tell us

the probability or improbability, the fact is that when people pay money, with some , invest money in some risky. projects, then they are probably finding out the future fate of their investments, their investments, for example, the fact that the ukraina hotel in the center of kyiv was recently privatized, the fact that politicians are starting to invest money in their promotion, i think this indicates that that they have some information that we, as experts, are independent and... so to speak, equally distant from political headquarters, may not have, so i immediately warn that i am based on open data, open data, thank you , mr. maxim, sir oleg, well, let's approach it just

a little from the other side, and look at this situation, but through experience. which we already have, the announcement a number of times that the elections will take place 100%. and if this time there is still no evidence that the headquarters are really being deployed, there are only certain rumors, then last year there was already a situation when even the headquarters were actually deployed by party, the lists were checked, when the elections were already being prepared, and it was difficult not notice that the market of political services has already... started with orders and carrying out renovations, let's say, electoral maps and many other moments, that is, the preparation for the elections was real, and in the end it ended in a fluke, no elections took place, and before the 24th , in the winter, president zelenskyy came out and said,

what are you talking about anyway, what kind of elections, who is talking about elections, he is irresponsible, and further down the list, and everything has stalled, why is this happening, first of all, from the point of view of the authorities. "you have a political force, a servant of the people, which does not really have either an ideological or party branched system that would be cemented with something other than power ratings and focus on one surname, zelensky personally, you need to somehow rally this team, from time to time warm up the engine of the car called the servant of the people, which is standing in the garage for..." so that it does not choke, in order to so that they don't run away, so that they don't start looking for other marriages under other brands for the upcoming election cycle, this is quite a reasonable decision to restrain and charge, to unite your team in some other ideological, i repeat,

there are no software or other rods. second, you are the opposition forces that want to change the government and... you understand that you have no other mechanisms besides elections to come to power, you will be interested in the elections taking place, of course, whether your sponsors of the political forces, are your party members interested in doing so? that elections have taken place, of course, because otherwise what is the point of them being your political force, so as soon as there are reasons that elections are possible, will you start such a rumor, will you activate your party network so that and suddenly there will be elections, of course there will be, because in the first case both the government and the opposition, the process itself is beneficial for you regardless of whether there will be elections or not, three points, whether you are party workers, for example, and political technologists, full-time , the apparatchiks interested in making everyone think that there is going to be

an election, of course, because that's when the money comes in to update those lists, to do grassroots activities , to update your capabilities, to identify where you can advertise, who will do it, layout, everything else, ie this is an opportunity to master certain budgets, will you start at any signal that an election may ... happen, of course, because you are interested in it, that's how self-inflicted progeny works, as soon as there is information that an election may be , a whole series of actors who have a vested interest in it begin to act as if the election is going to happen, and then others look and say, there is information that the election may take place, there are steps of a whole series of actors who usually move when they happen elections, or maybe they really are will happen, so now all this information is from the inside, it is not evidence. because the elections will definitely take place, we look at the military situation, we look at the security situation, we look at

the geopolitical situation, and we understand that there is no real window now for holding elections, all this foreign policy activation is primarily connected with the elections in the united states and the uncertainty with the potential the arrival of trump, which, of course, creates confusion and creates a position on the table in the form of whether or not the war will end, or whether freezes, and will there be some negotiations and then... actions, accordingly, the issue of elections will arise, then maybe we need to prepare for it, so at the moment it is more like air trade for now, and a reaction to external political uncertainty in the middle of the united states and around the united states in the context of the russian-ukrainian war, than really some kind of strategic calculation inside and really the preparation of elections already as a key main scenario. thank you, mr. oleg, but it is clear that... that such rumors are circulating, it is logical, probably, to give the answer to the main question: for whom such

elections are necessary in the 25th year, who, who in general is counting, well, in the presidential elections, so precisely, who claims to become the head of the ukrainian state, the verkhovna rada , obviously, obviously, a little later this political schedule will become clear , although closed sociology. i have heard about it, about political parties, about hypothetical political projects of zuluzhnyi and budanov's hypothetical political project, and there is even sociological data about whether they will get to the verkhovna rada or not, i will not spoil it and i will not make these closed data open, but the very fact that such data exists, and what concerns the presidential elections, mr. maksym, is it important for president zelensky to do this next year and

will the president lose his popularity or gain popularity is it important for him to go through this window of opportunity and take the second step to the presidency after 2019 ? is it so important now for the office of the president? uh, i would here, uh, uh, maybe i would talk about two points, one technical and one actual, such a content-political, intra-political, technical point is that we can talk about elections in 2025, in two options, actually, or if the hot phase of the war ends and martial law is abolished. and everything is happening in accordance with the current legislation and

according to political logic, but there is another option, which is actually last time, when there were rumors about the upcoming regular elections, just as the authorities categorically denied the possibility of holding elections during martial law, it can be theoretically justified , because ... there is a possibility that the war will not end in the 24th year, or in the 25th, or in the 26th, and you can refer to ... from countries that are in permanent, so to speak , conflicts, well, israel is now, for example, in such a conflict that is hot enough, but this does not mean that elections should no longer be held in the country at all, so this can be an argument for holding elections during martial law with

the use of, for example, electronic voting mechanism. that is, i say this simply so that we understand, plug opportunities, and took into account various options, but if we return to the content of such an internal political situation, directly answer the question of what the government can count on, what it cannot count on, then first of all it should be noted that the possible elections will be just a vote of confidence or mistrust of the authorities. and our government today is very personalized, that is, to volodymyr zelenskyi and his entourage, which everyone understands in their own way, but which is a factor of ukrainian politics, obviously, so of course the calculation here is very simple, eh the government in the person of volodymyr zelenskyi and

the possible potential presidential candidate zelenskyi must confirm... that it works for the benefit of ukraine and that it is effective, in this context there are two big risks for the current government and for the potential presidential candidate zelenskyi, firstly, this is the 2025 budget, in which, as we have already heard, all social benefits will be cut very significantly, which is actually a very, you know, the kind of budget that will leave very few people satisfied in this country, let's say this is one risk factor, the second factor at risk - if the war is ended or put on hold, then on what terms? potentially, this can also cause very big

claims and questions to the current president, these two risk factors, i think, are calculated. in the political headquarters of the current government and, depending on this, they will obviously make decisions to facilitate the holding of elections in the near future or postpone this process after all? well, it is obvious, mr. maksym and mr. olezh, that the victory plan that zelenskyi and yarmak brought to washington can also be perceived as part of... let's say yes, a part, a large part of the political activity of the current team, because in the united states of america, i think they have their own plan to fight russia, and it is, well, clear, at least to them, and they follow this logic, and our plan victory, it depends on their plan for victory, and it is absolutely

obvious from their plans, because ukraine has been politicized enough. to this question, that there is a victory plan, and yarmak and zelensky flew to the united states of america, ukrainians did not hear or see this the plan of victory, although this plan of victory, of course, corresponds to the plan of victory or appeasement of putin in the united states of america. yermak, returning from the united states of america , said that this victory plan would be presented to the ukrainians, with the exception of some secret separate parts, which apparently concern weapons, the list of weapons that ukraine is counting on. mr. oleg, should we expect a victory from this plan, which we will obviously see either this week or

next week, and we will be presented with whether should we expect something extraordinary or? in fact, in the current situation, the position of the ukrainian leadership has been articulated many times, what we want, the west is not ready to accept the plan for the victory of ukraine, which is the plan for the defeat of russia, they are only ready to talk about the plan for the victory of ukraine, and not ready to talk about the defeat of russia , and this may be the main reason, i.e., that it may... be a manifesto and simply a wish of the ukrainian side, which is unlikely to be implemented by our western partners. well, let's look at october 12. and ramstein, who will gather both the leader of the united states, biden, and president zelensky, who is announced as somewhat breakthrough,

is serious. it is obvious that zelenskyi said before that that diplomacy and force should go hand in hand, and that is the only way they work together, that is, it is obvious that there will be certain details, let's say, those agreements that were reached in washington, based on biden's tweet. recently, it can be assumed that something, something serious will be said there, perhaps regarding the invitation of ukraine to nato, or perhaps on the permission of our partners to strike deep into russia, not the united states, but european partners, but the united states will say that they are not against it, i think that biden will not take such a decisive step until the end of the election campaign, maybe some other positions. billions will appear, in a specific amount and dates , no longer in budget terms, but 8 plus the supply of weapons necessary for ukraine, this

includes aircraft, this is also the air defense system, this is a number of positions that for ukraine today are routine, expendable war materials, which are sorely lacking, starting with anti-aircraft needs, ending with just a projectile, all of this can be voiced, and it is obvious that this is also part of this victory plan, but at the same time... therefore, i would really caution against inflated expectations, and here i agree with your assessment that i don't think there will be anything that can fundamentally surprise ukrainian society and differ from what we have already heard from the ukrainian authorities. it seems to me that it is necessary to assess this victory plan adequately to the tasks for which it was created. first of all, this is not a plan for the victory of ukraine as such, but it is a plan to support the victory of ukraine by the united states. he was clearly focused on biden and the candidates for the presidency of the united states, because the first task was to intercept the agenda and set

the necessary messages and narratives for ukraine for the american internal discussion, before the visit, dad talked about possible compromises with russia, to which putin would agree, what can they offer him, what will the negotiations be like if trump comes, or not? kamela harris will not want to intensify negotiations with russia, but the ukrainian role in this, which ukrainian society and the ukrainian government would agree to. this discussion was about compromises, concessions. after the kurdish operation, ukraine had to secure political and symbolic capital from the victorious operation of ukraine. and impose a discussion about the victory of ukraine. can ukraine win? what can the states do in order for ukraine to win, what weapons to give, will the candidates dare to do it, or will it be done. this move by biden, all this became a discussion on american television, they ask the experts, they ask the candidates, and the scandalousness of trump and his outbursts, and then

the shoelaces in the air overnight, they only added attention to the ukrainian topic here, and the trouble helped, and ukraine pushed even the topic of the middle east for a certain time inside the american political discourse, which seemed unlikely at all, so the pr political technological task has already been completed, the second part is part of the steps that are programmed in this plan, which fall primarily on the period after the election of the new president, when biden is still will be the current president, but it will already be clear what the configuration is in the american parliament, in the congress and in the senate, in both houses, and who will be the new resident of the white house, and then biden can dare to take those decisive steps that he has not taken before due to not giving now... for trump to attack kamalukharis, due to the fact that he hoped for a second term and the implementation of a broader long-term strategy, due to personal fears, many

other things that will already lose their relevance, as it is obvious to everyone that biden will be retiring from a political career, and now he must have time to take certain decisive steps, which may even be perceived ambiguously today electorally, but will become his historical legacy, perhaps some of them are programmed in this ... plan for victory, this would be logical, so october 12 is the first date, the second date is the end of the elections in the united states and after that until the month of january is the period when this victory plan can work, but its task is definitely not to change the course of the war to the root and convince everyone of everything, he is very pointed and very mechanical, now he is directed to specific tasks, thank you, mr. oleg, here you are on... about this date, october 12, a four-way meeting of the leaders of great britain, germany, france and the united states of america, which will happen, and it is obvious. this meeting and

all possible variants of the results of this meeting are also being prepared in moscow, because during zelensky's stay in the united states of america, putin demonstratively changed the nuclear doctrine of deterrence, the concept of the nuclear doctrine of deterrence, and sergey ryabkov, deputy minister of foreign affairs of the russian federation, stated that russia is preparing... for a prolonged confrontation with the united states, regardless of the results of the upcoming presidential elections in this country. let's listen to what ryabkov said. i think that we shouldn't hold out much hope, given the bipartisan anti-russian consensus that has formed in the us, we need to prepare for a long confrontation with this country. we are ready for this in every sense, and we are sending all the warning signals to...

mr. maxim, we are talking about the cold war, a new one, or is it still about a hot war with the united states? yes, it's an interesting question, but of course, it's even more difficult with hypotheses here than with the ukrainian elections in the 25th year, because there are many options, and about the option... of a hot war between russia and the united states, to be honest , there's not much to say yet, well, it is very difficult, because this is such an event that radically changes the fate of, apparently, human civilization, and perhaps for this it is necessary to gather separately and thoroughly prepare for it, but if we talk about the situation in general. and back to the plan

president zelensky's plan for the victory of ukraine and our interest in general in this process, it is very appropriate to mention that player, that actor, about whom we are talking now, about putin, about putin's russia, putin's regime, whatever you want to call it, and when we we communicate with our western partners. then we understand that we are communicating with them, and obviously, at the moment we are not communicating with the russian side, at least in the formats that existed back in the 22nd year, our partners are also communicating with us, with ukraine, and with russia, there is no doubt that there is communication, so to speak, through different channels, but in

any case, this communication is... well, you know, such a symbolic confrontation, one step of one side, one step of the other, well, in a word, a chessboard , so in this chessboard now, of course, there is such a climax in this chess game, when all the attacking pieces gather around other people's headquarters, so to speak, around other people's kings, and what can threaten it... russia of the west, we see that it is now pulling all its forces, demonstrates determination, ryabkov's words are direct speech, but there are also corresponding actions, i.e. this is an increase in russia's military budget for the 25th year, this is a demonstrative increase in the number of armed forces, these are changes to the concept of using nuclear weapons, in

a word, russia... willingness to stand to the end with all our might, and how can the west, so to speak, threaten russia on the other hand? we understand that this russian-ukrainian war showed a huge technological, resource, and other advantage of the west over russia. and, the west is very dosed and very, so to speak, calculated. strategically shows his trump cards and his leverage, at the moment he can increase or decrease military support for ukraine. here are these, so to speak, hesitations, which we regard as the west will not dare, the west is afraid of russia and so on. i think it follows from my analysis of the situation that from...