political schedule, although there is closed sociology, i heard about it about political parties, about the hypothetical political projects of zaluzhny, and the hypothetical political project of budanov, and there are even sociological data about whether they will get to the verkhovna rada or not, i will not spoiler and i will not make these closed data open, but the very fact that such data exists, and what concerns the presidential data, mr. maksym, is it important for president zelensky to do this next year and will the president lose his popularity or to gain popularity, is it important to him, this is precisely the window of opportunity to pass and take her second step to the presidency after 2019, it is so important now for... the office of the president, i would

perhaps talk about two points: one is technical, and one is actually substantively political, internal political. the technical point is that we can talk about elections in 2025 in two options actually, or if the hot phase of the war ends. and martial law is abolished, and everything happens according to the law legislation and according to political logic, but there is another option, which, in fact, last time, when there were rumors about the upcoming regular elections, the authorities categorically denied the possibility of holding elections during martial law, theoretically it can

be justified, because there is a possibility that the war will not end in the 24th year, nor in the 25th, nor in the 26th, and we can refer to the experience of countries that are in permanent, so to speak, conflicts, but israel now, for example, in such a conflict hot enough, but that doesn't mean that you... elections shouldn't be held in the country at all anymore, so that could be an argument for holding elections during martial law using, for example, an electronic voting mechanism, so i'm i say this simply so that we understand the range of possibilities and take into account various options, but if we return to the content of such an internal political situation, the answer is straightforward.

to answer the question of what the government can count on, what it cannot count on, then first of all, it should be noted that the possible elections will be precisely a vote of confidence or no confidence in the authorities, and the authorities in our country today are very personalized, i.e. to volodymyr zelenskyi and his entourage, which everyone understands in their own way, but which is a factor in ukrainian politics , obviously. therefore, of course, the calculation here is very simple: the government in the person of volodymyr zelenskyi and possible potential presidential candidate zelenskyi must confirm that it works for the benefit of ukraine and that it is effective, in this context there are two big risks for the current government and potential presidential candidate zelenskyi. this is the

2025 budget, in which, as we have already heard, all social benefits will be cut very significantly, which is actually a very, you know, tough budget that will leave few people satisfied in this country, let's say this is one risk factor, the other the risk factor is, if the war is ended, or because... it is put on hold, then under what conditions? potentially, it can also cause very big claims and questions to the current president. two eyes risk factors, i think, are calculated in the political headquarters of the current government, and depending on this, they will obviously decide to facilitate the holding of elections in the near future or postpone them. after all, this

process, well, it is obvious, mr. maksym and mr. olezh, that the victory plan that zelenskyi and yarmak brought to washington is that. can be perceived as - a part, let's say this, a part, a large part of the political activities of the current team, because in the united states of america, i think they have their own plan to fight russia, and it is, well, understandable at least for them, and they follow this logic, and our plan for victory, it depends on their plan for victory, and it is absolutely obvious from their plans, because in ukraine... this issue has been politicized so much that it is victory plan, and yarmak and zelensky flew to the united states of america, ukrainians did not hear or see this victory plan, although this victory plan is clear, it corresponds to what

putin's victory or pacification plan is in the united states of america. yermak, returning from the united states of america said that this... the victory plan will be presented to the ukrainians with the exception of some secret separate parts, which obviously relate to the weapons and the list of weapons that ukraine is counting on, mr. oleg, should we expect from this victory plan, which we obviously we will see either this week or next week, and it will be presented to us whether we should... expect something extraordinary, whether in the current situation the position of the ukrainian leadership has been articulated many times, what we strive for, the west is not ready to accept the victory plan yet of ukraine, which is a plan for the defeat of russia, they are

only ready to talk about the plan for the victory of ukraine, and they are not ready to talk about the defeat of russia, and with this there may be... the main reason, that is, that it may be a manifesto and simply the wishes of the ukrainian side, which is unlikely to be implemented by our western partners, well, let's look at october 12, and ramshtein, who will gather both the leader of the united states, biden, and president zelensky, who is announced as to a certain extent breakthrough, serious, it is obvious that zelensky before... stated that diplomacy and power must go hand in hand, and this is the only way they work together, that is, it is obvious that there will be certain details, let's say, those agreements that were reached in washington, based on biden's recent tweet, then we can assume that something, something

something serious will be said there, possibly regarding the invitation of ukraine to nato, and possibly with the permission of our partners. to blows deep into the billions, russia, not the united states, but european partners, and the united states will say that they are not against it, i think that biden to the end the election campaign will not take such a decisive step, perhaps some other positions will appear now not during the budget period, but 8 plus in a specific quantity and dates of delivery of weapons is necessary in ukraine, this includes airplanes, this is also the air defense system, this is a number of positions that on ... today for ukraine are routine war expenses, of which there is absolutely enough, starting with anti-aircraft needs, ending with just a projectile, all this can be voiced, and it is obvious that this is also part of this victory plan, but at the same time i would really caution against excessive

expectations, and here i agree with your assessment that i do not think that there will be anything that can fundamentally surprise ukrainian society and differ from what we have already heard from the ukrainian authorities. it is necessary, it seems to me, to evaluate this victory plan adequately to the tasks for which it was created. first of all, this is not a plan for the victory of ukraine as such, but it is a plan to support the victory of ukraine by the united states. and he sharpened himself clearly under biden and under the candidates for the presidency of the united states. because the first task was to intercept the agenda and set the necessary messages and narratives for ukraine. for the american internal discussion, before the visit, dad talked about possible compromises with russia, what putin would agree to, what they could offer him, what the negotiations would be like if trump came, and whether kamela harris would want to intensify negotiations with russia, and

the ukrainian role in to this, what would the ukrainian society and the ukrainian government agree to? this discussion was about compromises, ukraine had to after the kurdish operation to fix political and symbolic capital from the victorious operation of ukraine and impose a discussion about the victory of ukraine. is ukraine capable of winning, what can the states do in order for ukraine to win, which one? give weapons, will the candidates dare to do it, will biden take this step, all this has become a debate on american television, experts are asked, candidates are asked, and trump's scandalousness and his outbursts, and then changing shoes in the air overnight, they only added attention here to ukrainian topics, and the trouble helped, and ukraine pushed even the topic of the middle east for a certain time inside the american political discourse, which seemed at all unlikely, so the pr flight... the logical task was already completed. the second part is part of the steps that are programmed in this plan, which

fall primarily on the period after the election of the new president, when biden will still be the current president, but it will already be clear what configuration is being formed in the american parliament, in the congress and in the senate, in both chambers, and who will be new an inhabitant of the white house, and then biden can dare to take those decisive steps that he has not taken before. in order not to give trump an incentive to attack kamala harris now, because he hoped for a second term and to implement a broader long-term strategy, because of personal fears, a lot of other things that will already lose their relevance, because it is obvious to everyone , that biden will retire from a political career, and now he must have time to take certain decisive steps, which may even be perceived ambiguously electorally today, but will become his historical legacy. maybe some of them are programmed in this victory plan, it would be logical, so october 12

is the first date, the second date is the end of the united states election and after that until the month of january is the period when this victory plan can work , but his task right now is not to change the course of the war to a fundamental one and to convince everyone of everything, he is very precise and very mechanical, now he is directed to a specific task. thank you, mr. olezh, you reminded me of this date: october 12, the four-way meeting of the leaders of great britain, germany, france and the united states of america, which will take place, and it is obvious that moscow is also preparing for this meeting and all possible options for the results of this meeting, because during zelensky's stay in the united states of america, putin is revealing. demonstratively changed the nuclear doctrine of deterrence, the concept of the nuclear doctrine

of deterrence, and sergey ryabkov, deputy minister of foreign affairs of the russian federation, stated that russia is preparing for a long confrontation with the united states, regardless of the results of future presidential elections in this country. let's listen to what ryabkov said. i think not, given the bipartisan anti-russian consensus that has developed in the us. it is necessary to prepare for a long confrontation with this country. we are ready for this in every sense, and we are sending all the warning signals to our adversary so that he does not underestimate our determination. mr. maxim, is it about a cold war, a new one, or a hot war with the united states? yes, interesting the question, uh, but of course here, with hypotheses it is even more difficult than with the ukrainian

elections in the 25th year, because there are many options, well, and about the option of a hot war between russia and the united states, to be honest, er, so far it’s very difficult to say, because, er, this is such an event that radically changes the fate of, apparently, human civilization, and maybe for this we need to gather separately and er thoroughly prepare, but if we speak about its situation in general and return to the plan of president zelensky, the plan of victory ukraine and our interest in general in this process, it is very appropriate to mention that... about the player, that actor, about whom, about whom we are talking now, about putin, about

putin's russia, putin's regime, whatever you want to call it, and when we communicate with our western partners, then we understand that we communicate with them, and obviously at the moment we do not communicate with the russian side, at least in the formats that existed back in 22, but... our partners communicate with us, with ukraine, and with russia, there is no doubt that there is communication, so to speak say, through different channels. but in any case, this communication is, you know, such a confrontation, symbolic, a step of one side, a step of the other, well, in a word, a chessboard, so in this chessboard now, of course, what is coming in this game of chess, such a climax is coming, when all the striking

figures are gathered around foreign, so to speak, headquarters, around foreign e kings, and ee... what can russia threaten the west? we see that now she is pulling all her strength, showing determination, but ryabkov's words are direct speech, but there are also appropriate actions, i.e. this is an increase in russia's military budget for the 25th year, this is a demonstrative increase in the number of armed forces, this is changes to the concept of applications. nuclear weapons, in a word, russia demonstrates with all its might the readiness to stand to the end, and what, on the other hand, can the west threaten russia, so to speak? we understand that this russian-ukrainian war has shown a huge technological, resource, and all other superiority of the west over russia, and the west is very

dosed and very, so to speak , calculated, strategically, uh, showing its trump cards and their leverage. at the moment, he can increase or decrease military support for ukraine. here are these, so to speak, hesitations, which we regard as the west will not dare, the west is afraid of russia and so on. i think it follows from my analysis of the situation that from... the west is simply trading with russia, and so to speak, it is a game of who is weaker, who will flinch, who will blink and so on, that is, in the west it is still very much in america, including we are talking about america, there are elections and so on, regardless of the results elections, our western partners have

serious leverage, which only they sometimes hint at, well... for example, the admission of ukraine to nato, the increase of military aid to ukraine, president macron even hinted at the deployment of some armed forces, soldiers there, units in ukraine , not necessarily at the front, but in ukraine, that is, russia is already straining with its last strength, already, so to speak, its hand is reaching for the nuclear button, and the west, represented by america, is still, so to speak, on the verge of engaging its main levers of influence on the situation, therefore the situation does not seem to me to be hopeless or losing for the west, but our role in this is quite, so to speak, sacrificial, i would call it that, and unfortunately, passive, that is, we

can only encourage the west not to leave us, under... continue to support, perhaps increase support given our position, and given that we remain, so to speak, a staunch ally of the west. this situation, unfortunately, looks like such strategic dynamics, which for us is not completely bad, not completely losing, i.e. this does not mean that putin is on his way to triumph, but this is not... it is a very optimistic forecast, mr. maksym, but we have what we have, mr. olezh, information has appeared, although it has already been refuted, but i i think that ditsite was not mistaken when he wrote that ulav scholz is going to talk to putin by phone, and

if it does not happen before the big twenty, then it will definitely happen in another day or two. while scholz did not communicate with the leader of russia and with the dictator of russia, but the fact that such information appears and the fact that these channels communications exist, which maxim mentioned, we know how the director of the cia communicated with the director of foreign intelligence of russia , naryshkin, in istanbul, warning them not to use nuclear weapons in the year 22, but obviously ... the leaders are also approaching that moment , the leaders of the countries that are now our partners in the fight against putin, in order to start some kind of dialogue with putin. with the kremlin, what kind of dialogue should it be, what can they talk about? you can, of course, tell a lot of different jokes here, starting with the fact that he is possible

bored for two years, maybe putin had the last word in the last discussion, and now scholz just wants to dial and say: "valdemar, you're a fool and hang up, and maybe find out if russia has some other oil campaign in which it is necessary to the supervisory board, or a retired german politician, preparing his departure airport, well , this is the tradition of retired german politicians, and scholz will be in 5 minutes, actually, but of course it will all be a joke, since it is clear that scholz is still this year remains the coalition, and in such information there can be two explanations: the first is that such a call is really being prepared, and it is probing the reaction of both the external and internal, in the event that the external will be calm enough. internal electoral situation will demonstrate that it allows scholz to call, then he can take such a step. it can be about something to probe on his part, his team. and the second hypothesis,

contrary to this, that such a call was really also being prepared, but there is a part of the team that sabotages it and threw out information specifically in order to disrupt the twink, because the position resume contact with moscow, teasing is irritating and unacceptable for significant. parts even within the german government itself and in particular in scholz's entourage. the only thing that is certain is that there is no smoke without fire, and the words that were heard in scholz's office do not say that this is fake information, they did not come out, they did not say specifically that it was fake, no calls, they started leaving , this suggests that indeed such thoughts, at least, were being floated, but that they have not yet come to fruition. there was a request to moscow, to the kremlin about such a thing conversation, suggests that this decision had not yet been made at the time the information was leaked to the media. why can scholz go for

it? on the one hand, there can be a positive explanation that he wants to demopolize the opportunities of orban and other representatives from the conditional collective event, communicate with putin and then capitalize on this and act as intermediaries and convert it into... his political influence, because this is a very toxic position , and not everyone can afford it. scholz may be willing to take on this toxicity and become a communicator from of the great western countries with moscow, in order to feel, type the grandfather, poke with a stick and find out, alive, dead, conscious, unconscious, and what putin will tell him, and then pass it on to macron, biden and everyone else. we have to realize, be aware that the channels of communication. indeed, they do not exist at the level of the first persons all the time, because in this way legitimization and the exit of isolation would occur, which is what makes such a call

between putin's scholz dangerous as a precedent, but channels at the level of the services, at the level of diplomatic departments, at levels of retired elites, expert circles , etc., they are constantly in action, and there are consultations, and there are certain meetings that take place, all this is happening during everyone's time. wars and always these channels exist and they will be until the last day of the war. thank you, mr. oleg, for the conversation. oleg sahakyan, maksym rozumny were guests of our program today. thank you gentlemen for an interesting conversation. let me remind you that throughout our broadcast we conducted surveys. we asked you, friends, whether you think presidential elections in 2025 are possible, the results of our television survey. 25% yes, 75% - no, these are the results of our television survey today, friends, i remind you that we appear on

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greetings to everyone from espresso, i'm anna yavomelnyk and the news editor is talking about the main things for this hour, and first about the situation at the front. units of the defense forces stopped the active offensive of russian troops near pokrovsk, donetsk region. this was reported by andriy, the head of the center for combating disinformation kovalenko. the enemy's attempt to break through to lyubimivka in kurshchyna was also stopped, kovalenko added. according to the general staff of the last day on the front line.