saturday political club, live broadcast, and we begin to discuss all the most important events of the week in ukraine and the world. everything that happened around our country is now here with vitaly portnikov. mr. vitaly, good evening. so, actually, as always, we start with the security block, with what is happening at the front, what is happening in connection with the war in our country, which was unleashed by the russian federation. well, and in general, of course, we will talk about all the issues that concern... russia,

providing for russia and so on and so on, so, the first question, probably, is about how russia is advancing in general, we observe every day that in fact there is an ugledar, here was the pokrovsky direction a few days ago, yes, today the deep state maps publish information about the next advance in the kupyansk direction, i.e. already directly in kharkiv region. and other directions, there is the direction of the time gap, which, perhaps, are less clear now, but the general trend is quite clear, mr. vitaly, what we said in our past programs, russia is gradually, but moving, and here too it is also worth adding information related to the fact that, firstly, the mobilization in russia continues, russia plans to recruit another... million contract soldiers to the army in order to

essentially replenish its losses that occurred during the last time, and of course, the autumn no one canceled the draft, that is, russia continues to fight, and this is a fact. mr. vitaly, these are the trends that we are currently seeing at the front, that we are seeing, in particular, in the russian political and military space, and in particular, in addition to this, that next year, russia will establish... in the project of the budget, about 40% of all expenses are specifically for military needs, for the army and for everything related to the provision of the army, this is the whole complex of the context, how do you evaluate it and what does it indicate? well, we really talked about it many times, i said that the only way to achieve an end to the russian-ukrainian war is not some negotiations, it's not some ultimatums, it's not

some international forums, it's all very simple: either the russian army stops, or it advances. you can stop the russian army only, as we understand, by resisting this army and a decrease in its military and economic potential. that is, this is what our troops are doing at the front, when we destroy russian military arsenals, when we destroy russian oil depots, when we say that... russia should feel the blows not only from drones, but also from western rockets, these are all steps to stopping. this is one thing, another, no illusions are needed, what you listed seems to me to be an obvious answer to this question, that putin wants to advance exclusively in the territories that he declared part of of the russian federation, that is, kupin is a part of the russian federation, as far as i remember, of course, from the russian point of view, kharkiv oblast continues to be. parts of ukraine, and

why? and because there was a famous operation in 2022 , when the russians lost kupyansk, you remember that it was already then the temporary center of the occupied kharkiv region, which they were going to make, the kharkiv region of the russian federation. that is, why are they advancing there? they want to capture a certain territorial bridgehead there, to hold it in 2025 referendum and announcement. that the kharkiv region is also part of the russian federation and after that demand that the ukrainian troops leave not only the zaporizhia, kherson, donetsk and luhansk regions of ukraine, but also the kharkiv region, for example, and this is the logic of this war, which you simply need to understand: the russians will advance wherever they can, the russians will make decisions about the annexation of ukrainian regions, and the russians will create for themselves. such a negotiating position

that, in their opinion, will help them, in principle, even if they do not succeed in occupying the whole ukraine, to join to... russia, that part of its territory that is part of the new russia project. by the way, it is worth reminding that this was a plan, it is simply carried out differently. in february 2022 , that's what the idea of ​​the blitzkrieg was, a puppet government is being created in kyiv. and, as putin said then, you remember, we will ensure self-determination of all peoples of ukraine. what kind of peoples are these, i always wanted to ask what kind of peoples there are in ukraine, if the vast majority of the population here are ethnic ukrainians, and i will tell you what they are, the peoples of kharkiv oblast, zaporizhzhia, kherson oblast and so on, so this government, headed by

viktor yanukovych and viktor medvedchuk, should not have stood in the way of the idea of ​​holding referendums in the eastern and southern regions of ukraine regarding their accession. to the russian federation, on this territory that would remain with this government, this is how the government hung the times of the hitlerian occupation of france, just on a larger territory, there a puppet ukrainian state would be created as part of the union state of russia and belarus, simply in this russia there were already b donetsk, luhansk, kherson, zaporizhzhya, mykolaiv, odesa, kharkiv regions, all of them. that ukraine can exist, that central ukraine should, on the one hand, be a part of the russian project of a union state, and on

the other hand, the authorities of central ukraine should keep the west, western regions of ukraine in subjection, because they themselves do not want to implement there. elements of control, well, this is how marshal pétain, at the head of this vichy government, exercised control over this territory of france, which was left for this puppet french state, by the way, you may remember that at some point, i already i don't remember when it was in 1944 or 1943, all the other territory of france was annexed to the state, pétain came to paris, he was welcomed there, but in fact all this was actually hitler's occupation, just a sham. under independent france, which was already almost completely with the exception of those areas that the germans considered historically theirs, alsace and so on, this was france, well , the ukraine that hitler created for pétain , the ukraine that putin was going to make for yanukovych . well, and now, when

it turned out that blitzkrieg was a fiasco, in russia the impression is that they can achieve this goal through years of war. that's all. that is , what could not be achieved in three days could be achieved in three weeks, what could not be achieved in three weeks could be achieved in three months, what could not be achieved in three months could be achieved in three years, but in three years, when they will not succeed, let's see how their priorities will change, that is, what they will say to themselves, what could not be achieved in three years, can be achieved in 13 years, it is also an absolutely possible development of events, or, well we they have already taken what they have taken, we will fix on this for now, or at least they will leave. in their opinion, a temporary truce, a temporary truce, yes, well, in principle, that's it, that's the logic of the moment, and i don't know why we're always surprised by their progress, well , it seems as if we always think that they are ready to stop the war, but they

want negotiations, they are exhausted, they will want negotiations, when they are really exhausted, this is a possible option, again, i don't know in what year it will happen, i already pointed out several times. the conditions for this stoppage of the war, it is true when they stopped, when they cannot advance further, when their bombing of the ukrainian territory does not lead to the results they expected, that is, to the overflow of the population, and when they lose a huge amount of money, but not get nothing as a result, these are the three main conditions, everything else, all these international forums, all these international condemnations, all these statements. do not have any meaning at all, you have to understand, we can in principle work from the point of view of our diplomatic success, i have always said that i see no reason to believe that we should not work, here we held a peace summit, it is an important instrument, international support for ukraine, does it have anything to do with the end of the war,

no, now china can hold its own summit of friends of peace, for what, in order to knock out international support. from volodymyr zelensky to transfer it to his side, to the side of russia by and large, and then they will count how many countries will gather at that alternative summit, where the host is already it will not be... volodymyr zelenskyi, but the conditional sydzenpin, and whether ukraine will want to participate in such a diplomatic forum, but it will still have nothing to do with the war, it will be, if you like, just a game on another field, that is, war - this is relatively speaking a real event where living people die, real cities are destroyed, the destinies of hundreds of millions of people are destroyed, but this is a computer game, people gather in the mountains, you can gather there. in the mountains of switzerland, you can gather in the mountains of china, a beautiful hotel,

exquisite food, champagne, and in this situation are discussed, really serious problems that these people cannot solve, are not capable of solving, because it is not diplomats, but generals who decide the issue when there is a war, not presidents, soldiers decide the future of their countries, and presidents can only or command these soldiers. to fight, as they do now, or to decide that the war ends, that's only when the president decides that the war ends, only at that moment the initiative passes to them from the military, and when the presidents tell the army to fight, then in principle, they do not play a significant role in the course of the situation, there is no need to place great hopes on them. volodymyr zelenskyi can travel around the world, meet with... presidents of various countries and ask for help, but everything depends not on him, but on the ukrainian army. vladimir putin can

demand that his army take kiev in three days, that it take all of donbas, remember when he set this task back in 2022, but if the russian army cannot do it, vladimir putin, as well as volodymyr zelenskyi is not a subject, but an object of this process, he can only give orders, and whether the military can carry out these orders or not depends on how they... have to fight with another force, force, where force works, politics and diplomacy without force , and here we move to another condition, to security guarantees, which i think we will talk about later, this is also a very important point, because if russia understands that it is opposed by a force greater than ukraine, let's say the north atlantic alliance, no just helps, not just... provides weapons, but guarantees the security of the ukrainian territory there , at least not covered by war, then it is also

a political issue for the russian president even then, whether he wants to lead to a conflict in principle that could lead to a prospective conflict between a nuclear state and a nuclear bloc, that is a completely different story, but this is also a very important story for our allies, that they give us security guarantees, are they ready for the potential... of a conflict with a nuclear state, which could turn into the third world war with the use of nuclear component and the death of tens of millions of people in the course of the greatest drama in the history of mankind, when you and i perfectly understand, dear friends, that no one will remember the russian-ukrainian war and the fate of ukraine against this sad background, and february 24, 2022 will enter the history of mankind, if there will be any history of mankind at all, it may not exist at all, as the starting gun was fired, which put an end to the hopes of my people to live on earth for some more time, which was allotted for this civilization, too,

of course, not eternal on this planet, but we, at least, belong to those generations that were going to live here for a long time, and it may turn out that these hopes of ours are in vain, and that we are, in principle, approaching the most interesting and, i would say, a fascinating catastrophe in the history of mankind, which really no one will read about in history textbooks due to their possible absence, and so when we think about it, we understand what western politicians are afraid of and how this nuclear blackmail of putin works, here i am just for you demonstrated the mechanism of this blackmail, which , by the way, was used again this week, when they continued to talk about their nuclear doctrine there, how they will apply it, will not apply it, although on the other hand we see how in fact the same piskov says, what not, strikes there with unmanned aerial vehicles. on the territory of russia or even there with ukrainian-made missiles, the fact that

their warehouses are exploding, so that it has nothing to do with it, that is, as they say, a step forward, of course, this is the situation strategic uncertainty, so that the west does not understand, nevertheless, where is the specific condition where they are ready for it, maybe they are not ready for it at all, but they specifically create such a situation when the doctrine is, when it can be applied, it is not clear. let's continue this whole discussion further and we will also talk about these other attempts at peace, various plans, publications in the... western media and the opinions of our foreign partners, after a short pause, a few minutes, and we will return to the saturday political club live, no switch now i have there is a toothpaste that does more. lacquer activ++ with plus active ingredients, i

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for good deeds, herovital energy - once a day, there are discounts on proctobam 20. in pharmacies plantain, bam, to savings. exclusively on the air of our channel. congratulations, friends, the politclub program is on the air on the espresso tv channel. the most relevant topics of the week: member countries nato has huge arsenals. russia is already on the verge of running out of resources. topics that resonate in our society. this is the question of trump's victory, what is it? analysis of the processes that change the country and each of us. what else can the russians do, are they able to use, say, the resources of the lukashenka army allied with them there? vitaly portnikov and guests of the project read the entire service of the son. accept my unions. thank you, it was difficult, but i was just curious.

but this is absolutely not stylish. they help understand the present and predict the future. it was suggested that the united states of... enter into a bilateral security agreement with us. a project for those who care and think. politclub every sunday at 20:00 at espresso. saturday political club, live ether. we are coming back and now we will discuss issues that concern nato itself. possible, possible membership of ukraine in nato, we will also discuss the issue of these next peace plans, which are discussed a lot and very often in the western press. well, let's start, of course, with during the visit to kyiv, actually mark rutte, the new secretary general of nato, he arrived in

ukraine and made several statements that... related, among other things, to ukraine's possible membership in the north atlantic alliance. in particular, mr. rutte stated that ukraine is closer to nato than ever before. also, mr. ryute commented on the possibility of striking the territory of russia with western weapons. well, and in particular, again, a large number of publications appeared in... in the foreign press, which concern ukraine's possible membership in nato, here is the financial times, there were several articles published, one today, some articles were published during the previous ones. in particular, in one of the articles it is written that nato is considering the so-called german model of ukraine's membership, that is, conditionally

speaking, we understand that this is a part of the country that can join the north atlantic alliance, including other statements, in particular, the former secretary general of nato, jen stoltenberg, stated that ukraine can... become a member of nato, even with the occupied territories, at least that was the statement, but besides that, let's let's pay attention to one article of the same edition of the financial times, which today is very actively circulated in the ukrainian, at least in the internet segment, which is actively discussed by ukrainians, in particular, i will quote: western ukrainian officials made a decision that the basis for... negotiations can to become essential security guarantees in exchange for russia's control over the occupied territories of ukraine, in particular, these essential

security guarantees include nato membership, at least for that part of the country or those territories that are under the control of official kyiv. the publication also notes that this would be a tacit agreement that these lands should be returned diplomatically. means in the future, ukraine must define a military defense border, agree not to permanently deploy troops or nuclear weapons on its territory, unless it is under threat of attack. well, this is one, some, roughly speaking, one spectrum of those articles that were actually in the foreign press, we will also talk about others, but let's at least discuss this mass of material, which now we have in... a country in nato, they began to actively talk about it again, and the second question, actually, this so-called tacit agreement, by

the way, i also want to add here that according to media sources, some who published the answer , allegedly in the president's office, reacted to the article, one of the tv channels notes this, about supposed security guarantees, again in the president's office they allegedly say that this is a delusion, it is not true, there is no such conversation, no one at the event officially and clearly offered such security guarantees to ukraine, which would definitely not would allow the expansion or recurrence of war. well, these are the things, mr. vitaly, mr. rutte's arrival in kyiv, his opinion on nato, jens stoltenberg's opinion, and these articles in the west. to the press, what they testify to on this so-called political-diplomatic track, and whether today our

western partners really consider the possibility that ukraine, at least in some perspective, or perhaps within the framework of some formal or informal agreement, joins nato, however without actually occupied. territory, well, look, i will discuss this story from 2022, not from 2024, if you remember, i publicly talked about this in 2022, as a possible version of the development of events, and by the way, it was then that i said what was being discussed the question of what should look like a zone that will not be embraced by the guarantees of the fifth article, i.e. ukraine is accepted there as a donation, everyone has territorial integrity, but... here is the question of the fifth article, it is roughly like with germany, it is true that germany and believed that it had rights to all its territories, including the territory

gdr, but the fifth article covered only the territory of the federal republic of germany, but the german democratic republic was a completely different state body, part of another defense union, as, say, happens with the occupied territories of ukraine to a certain extent. but again, even then there were options that were discussed, one of the options was to provide a security guarantee along the contact line, another option was to provide a security guarantee without the territories that are considered disputed between russia and ukraine, many people were offended at me then that i called these territories disputed, but from the point of view of the constitutional law of the two countries, whether we like it or not, these are disputed territories, just russia with... international law, but this does not make the fact of the dispute invalid, non-existent. the constitutions of russia are donetsk, luhansk, kherson, and zaporizhzhia

regions. and the republic of crimea and sevastopol, and even if we liberate these territories by military means, they will not go anywhere according to the constitution of the russian federation, it will consider these territories occupied by ukraine, it will consider that it has these territories to return either politically or militarily, it will prepare for revenge, well , roughly like azerbaijan with nagorno -karabakh and its districts, which were the so -called security zone, of course, it was there on the side of... azerbaijan had international law, we even with this, i think, we will not argue for a minute, but azerbaijan believed for a long time that it would be able to return these territories through political dialogue, but all this time it was preparing for a new war with armenia in order to solve this issue by force, let's say if we would win back ours territories in russia, and russia would leave these territories in the constitution, it should be

understood that it is preparing for the moment when it can take these territories by means of a new war with ukraine, by the way, there is also a turning point, even if we territories are not liberated, but we continue to consider them constitutionally ours, then russia in any case considers ukraine a potentially hostile state and a threat, that is, a country that claims these territories, which are written in its constitution, and which it has the right to by political or military means legitimately take away. and therefore, of course, russia, firstly, will always demand from ukraine, from ukraine such constitutional changes that would remove from the constitution of ukraine, donetsk, luhansk, kherson, zaporizhzhya regions, crimea and sevastopel today, and secondly, if this withdrawal will not happen, it will prepare for the destruction of the ukrainian state, which resists such changes, and for the creation of such a ukrainian state, which will agree to constitutional changes, what was done in principle in 2022, so to consider that between

russia and ukraine in general may... be peace and that we will live to some kind of real peace, when we will feel safe in our country, only a person who does not realize the depth of the abyss that we have fallen into thanks to putin's aggressive actions can do. this time. second, now nato. nato has always hoped and continues to hope that putin will come to his senses and at least agree to freeze the war. ugh. along the line of contact. hoped for 2022, they hoped for it in 2023, 2024 ends , there is no sign of the end of the war, even on the horizon, money, billions are being spent, the european economy does not look happy, china's influence is increasing, the united states is in a difficult political situation before the elections, everyone is asking, well, what's next, and then an option arises, maybe it will be possible to stop them like

this. .. in a way to say that we do not want to interfere, but we will intervene if you destroy the status quo, this is what you achieved, we condemn it, it is bad, you occupied ukrainian territory, you declared it yours, all this is terrible, but , but we we understand that we cannot solve anything here by force, but you must... understand that you will not achieve anything new by village means, so that you understand this for sure, we announce the euro-atlantic integration of ukraine, understand that ukraine - it is a broken piece of cake that even if you fight for 10 years, you will not get it, well, maybe you don’t have to fight for 10 years, maybe you will calm down, but in order for the russians to start thinking in this direction at all, some kind of formula for the presence of ukraine in

nato, that is, some explanation of what... if russia will attack ukraine, there will be a joint response of the bloc, not what is happening now, when against a country of 120 million people, which practically transferred its entire economy to war rails and a president who enjoys war as the best time of his life, there are 30 million state, whose citizens seek peace, in contrast to their neighbors on the other side of the border, who consider war to be the best state for russian statehood, as we understand it, and here in this situation, in this situation, we... with you see that nato does not really realize how much it can risk, that is, let's imagine this model, how it should look in principle: a nato summit is being held, in order for this to happen, there must be a nato summit, well, let's imagine fantastically that an extraordinary nato summit will take place, before the end of the term of the presidency of biden, and this summit on ...