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tv   [untitled]    October 5, 2024 8:00pm-8:31pm EEST

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century and in which century we will live in a war or a peaceful one, because an accurate awareness of challenges and dangers depends on this cadence, and of course, next month we will follow the elections in the united states of america as much as possible, because they will include to have a huge influence on what will happen in ukraine in the coming months, not just months, weeks, but maybe even tens of years. we have a short break, the saturday political club will be back in a few minutes, so don't switch, we still have a lot of interesting topics. journalist who joined to the armed forces, a political expert who became a special agent, taras berezovyts in a new project on espresso. the real front is a thorough analysis of the main ones. events reports,
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comments of leading specialists and experts. analytics from the major of the armed forces. how to make sense of disturbing news and distinguish truth from hostile propaganda. the real front program with taras berezovets every saturday at 21:30 on espresso. new week on espresso - a weekly summary information and analytical program. a clear understanding of the key events of the past week, analysis of causes and consequences of these events from experts. forecasts. development of the situation for the current week, the opportunity to ask your own questions and join the discussion, spend the final monday evening with us and confidently step into the new week. the new week project with khrystyna yatskiv and andrii smoly every monday at 8:00 p.m. on espresso. exclusively on the air of our channel. congratulations, friends, the politclub program is on the air on the espresso tv channel. the most relevant topics
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of the week for nato member countries are huge arsenals, and russia is already on the verge of exhausting its resources. topics that resonate in our society. this is the question of trump's victory, what is it? analysis of the processes that change the country and each of us. what else can the russians do, are they able to use, say, the resources of the lukashenka army allied with them. vitaly portnikov and guests of the project, have read all the comments, accept mine. thank you, it was difficult, but i was just curious, but it is absolutely not helpful to understand the present and predict the future, suggested that the united states conclude with us bilateral security agreement. a project for those who care and think. political club, sundays at 20:00 at espresso. the saturday political club is live ether, and we are back with a new one.
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topic, you all know what happened also this week, it is an attack by iran, a large number of ballistic missiles up to 200 units on the territory of israel, we are also watching israel's strikes on lebanon, to destroy the terrorist hezbollah, in fact, in addition to this, we see that all this has an international context, it all affects the elections in the united states in the united states of america, there is a reaction from biden, there is a reaction from other representatives, in particular from european structures, but the general context is that the escalation in the middle east and the situation in the middle east in general is extremely explosive right now, and we see that israel's... does not
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retreat, continues such a limited operation in lebanon against hezbollah, and iran continues to rattle its weapons, including now we are also watching and expecting that israel will probably launch a retaliatory strike on the territory iran, and this raises the question of what the response will be, whether it will be a limited response, whether it will be a response on ... certain infrastructure facilities, in particular nuclear facilities, the president of the united states of america, joe biden, asked israel to respond more softly and not to strike these nuclear facilities, which we have already talked about. still, mr. vitaly, we see that iran has dared to strike, yes, after the pause it took. for several months,
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at least, well, it was already a blow after the murder nastrals, you know, yes, it was already a blow, when, as they say, they, well, relatively speaking, iran wanted to ... probably save face, and, to put it cynically enough, well, i don't know, what do you think , that only the face, maybe it’s just that he always calculates that some missiles will reach the target, well, 181 missiles, i’m sorry, there are none, there is another point of view that this strike was the one that was supposed to be carried out a certain demonstration, you know, i think it's a conspiracy. well, again, you and i live in the country, which are attacked all the time with ballistic missiles, not all of them hit the target either, is this a demonstration from the russian side, or do they still want to get somewhere? well, in our case, a large number of missiles still reach the target, that's true, because
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we have a different anti-flood system, that is, in your opinion, iran's goal was to hit some specific objects, usually military objects. yeah, but that doesn't mean, first of all, that this is the last blow, and it doesn't mean that they didn't want to, because all this the idea that all these strikes are done for beauty is a very strange idea, well, imagine, you ayatalah ameni, you can imagine, you understand that israel can hit bunkers, you don't feel safe in principle, because you the very leader of the state who wants to destroy israel, israel has nothing to lose, if you are killed, it will be a lesson to your successor that he should be a little more careful with israel, because he will end up like you . it is clear that you are an elderly person, you are already preparing to meet allah, you can put everything on the line, but you know, usually dictators, they want
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to live and not meet allah before their real time comes, so here's the story, of course you want to show israel that you're strong, or you're to be feared, not wanted. sure that nothing like that will happen, that israel can't destroy it, that it's a violation of the rules of the game, and israel was able to, you know, what do you think israel's response will be about, i think that, that it will be such a difficult thing. it will be related to how the situation will develop now in the relationship israel and the united states, to what extent benjaminahu is ready for a confrontation with joseph biden on the eve of the us presidential election, because this is not a question about biden, it is about garis and about
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israel's future relations with washington, because netanyahu still understands that it is not necessary to win maybe only trump, of course he would be more comfortable if trump won, but he sees reality. the way we all see it, i'm asking another question here, actually the context of what's happening in the middle east, it's important to the united states america, and for the elections in the usa, this is what is happening now, conditionally in the triangle of iran, israel and lebanon, who benefits more, trump or harris, well rather. trump, it's hard to say, you understand, on the one hand it's beneficial to trump, who accuses democracy of indecisiveness. on the other hand, the democratic electorate, there are a lot of people who believe that israel is using excessive force, and they
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may believe that if they vote democratic, the united states will continue that policy, and if trump becomes president, ugh, then israel will generally feel much more confident. who cares, that is, both parties play their electorate, on the other hand, biden and harris, they support israel, the destroyed shits, and thus do not forget about the electorate that sympathizes with israel in their own party, they just have to, well, how to say it , to maneuver, trump does not need to maneuver, and his supporters say that biden wants to restrain israel. and israel is actually on the threshold of a new holocaust, and there are already other people who believe that it is not israel destroys palestinians and lebanese himself and acts completely disproportionately, when trying to destroy terrorists, he reduces the peace of the population both in gaza and in lebanon, you can think like that,
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you understand, that is, it is unknown how much it increases trump's electorate, he simply convinces trump's electorate that he is correct trump's position, well, conditionally position. trump , as well as ukraine, is that look, the third world war is starting, or look, because i am not the president, there are wars in the world. these are his main messages, his main concept, perhaps not even about who he supports, but maybe even about what, look, only i will become president, all wars will end, ukraine will end, israel will end, lebanon will be at peace, evil, but there are completely different approaches, ukraine will end , because he will come to an agreement with putin, it will end in israel, then you are in the middle east, because he will not, so there is a completely different vision.
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you understand, in both cases, the war in the middle east will be tomorrow , the day after tomorrow will be a year, remember november 7, 7 in the year 2023, some of the experts who were involved in the near east said that it would last a year. when someone said, i remember saying that this could go on for several months because there is no political solution, everyone looked at me very skeptically, what a few months, and they will just agree at some point about the hostages, about everything this is the situation right there, you understand how similar the situation in the middle east is to the situation in ukraine, with the fact that there is no political solution here, but realistically speaking, we talk a lot about israel and about it there reaction but there is hamas, which has its base, and there are supporters of hamas all over
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europe and america, who say something, palestine from the river to the sea, palestine from the river to the sea, this is palestine over there from the jordan to the mediterranean sea, this slogan does not imply the existence of a jewish state, that is, many can say that the solution to the situation is that two states exist on the territory of the former one. give palestine, but the palestinian arabs themselves do not seek it, if they did, they would not vote for hamas, if they did aspired, they would most likely have given their votes there to fatah, and now, perhaps, there was already this second state, but we are talking a lot about the mood that was in the palestinian environment after the signing of the peace accords and after yasir-arat returned to ramallah as the head of this palestine. claiming that he will become the head of the palestinian state, and in fact his return was
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also associated with the first palestinian intifada, but what did arafat meet in ramallah, a man who had not been in the palestinian for a very long time environment that headed the émigré organization, he saw a radicalized society, he saw a society that basically told him, sorry, but we absolutely do not want to negotiate with israel, your task is to force... to make new and new concessions, and these concessions have to weaken it so that we can destroy it, and arafat, of course, as a man who wanted to get power, became radicalized, along with this society that he now led, because it's one thing when you lead a migrant an organization in which you can make various decisions, but it is another matter when you are forced to reckon with the mood of society, which says: let's destroy them all, let's, here and there... for example, yesterday i was at the lviv book forum a discussion that
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went astray, which was related to uh, how the war in israel is reflected in the war in ukraine, after this discussion, some person who was there opened a book, well, with the palestinian flag, and this issue is not in flags, i believe that the people who are supporters there... palestinian statehood, they have the right to express their positions in civilized forms, but this book was called a return to haifa, to haifa, not to ramallah, not to hebron with bethlehem, to haifa, and i immediately remembered my fellow student at the gaza sector journalism faculty, who said: i want to live in tel aviv, in which there will not be a single jew, ugh, and this was a person not an islamist radical, this was a person who was a member of the palestinian. himself a completely secular person, from my point of view this person should not have appealed at all attention to the nationality of those with whom she wanted
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to live, she had to be, would like to live with the working class, true, but he had no idea of ​​the working class, he had the idea that there was a palestinian working class and a jewish working class had where to start, and so there is no political solution here, because israel has always had the idea that if it reaches agreements with the arab world... then it guarantees israel a peaceful existence. now the question is the following: an understanding has been reached with the arab world in principle. almost everyone arab countries are calm. before the existence of israel, when hassan nasrallah was killed, i read in the lebanese media, interviews with lebanese, shiites in different countries of the world, and here is a lebanese woman who lives in new york, she says: "i went to a restaurant, we everyone
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was crying there, our beloved shit died, we were all worried and came to this restaurant." people in new york, in riyadh said, we have to do here, everything looks fine, we should rejoice, if we only show our sorrow, we as aids to terrorism are simply will be expelled from saudi arabia, and so in many arab countries, it turns out that supporters of radicalism, anti-semitism, the destruction of the jewish people, can feel great in the united states of america or in france, in the democratic world, while in saudi arabia or in other countries they simply they are deported because they... to prisons as terrorists, also because saudi arabia considers its own shia minority a danger to its own statehood, here is the answer to your question, it means that it turns out that everything is decided for the slaves, but there is the unsolved palestinian problem that no one understands how to solve, because if they want to destroy you, if the population that lives in
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this territory wants to live in yours, then how do you solve this problem, it's like between russians. if the russians believe that ukraine is russia, you can at least beat the wall with your head, you will not convince them, well, there is no political solution, it does not exist, it does not exist, it is the same here, so if these people have support in iran, then for today today, the key is iran, so let's imagine that the islamist regime is in iran the islamic steocracy is being destroyed, that a democratic state is emerging, this state will not support israel in the palestinian issue, it will... demand the creation of a palestinian state, but it will not give money to radical palestinian groups, and it will not try to destroy lebanese statehood , as iran is doing now, because in fact we understand that lebanon is a state that does not function precisely because of the efforts of iran and its proxy forces on the territory of lebanon, we just have to explain
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viewers, that lebanon is a multi-national state, it has many christians and... sunnis, er, friends, and in fact these people are completely hostages of the shia community, which is not the majority, which is 25-30% of the population there, and these people are not they let them elect a president, they don't let them form a government, they don't call bombs and rockets on their heads, they fight with israel, their army is larger than the army of lebanon, which is not at war with israel, that's real. so, of course, if you deprive these people of money, and not just walkie-talkies and pagers, then in principle you create some basis for not having radicalism, armed, financed, but you still don't solve the problems, you need several generations of palestinian arabs to grow up who will say, we are not
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going to achieve this by force, we have to accept that the jewish state will exist. we need to somehow create a state where we are still with the capital there in ramallah or there in gaza, and develop this state. we don't like that jews live in tel aviv, haifa, jerusalem, we don't like it, but we can't do anything about it we cannot, and we must, and we do not have the money to receive all this, and it is a question of 25, 30, 40 years after the disappearance of the source of funding. the same applies to the russian-ukrainian war. we need generations of people who will say: oh, you know, we understood that ukraine is not russia, such people will not appear, but we need generations of people who will say, we are not we can conquer this territory. yes, this is historical russia. yes, kyiv, kharkiv, odessa and even lviv, well, these are russian cities. so there
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there are russians who do not even understand that they are russians. yes, instead of speaking the beautiful...pure russian language of pushkin and putin, these people speak the slang of their peasant poets, terrible, but we can't do anything, because if we try to restore historical justice, and they are in nato, there will be a third world war, and the same will remain dependent on moscow as on this missile test from armata. oh, it’s unpleasant, and so we will live next to them, they will think, maybe someday the situation will change and they will still like us they will still kill, but we will know that they do not have such opportunities, that's all, this is the real way out for ukrainians and jews in the 21st century, i don't know what will happen in the 22nd, i can't... maybe it takes so long to predict, but for the 21st century, i promise these two peoples simply coexistence with their neighbors, who will slowly get used to the idea that they
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cannot kill them at night, such is the fate, different peoples have different fates, well, ukrainians and jews are like this, jews don't get used to it, so i am completely calm about it, ukrainians in such a situation basically think that they are not were, although during the famine there were, they were, they simply did not have, there was no awareness of such an opinion. it seems to me that there were already at least a few hundreds, well, that is, the simple question is that this historical memory was stolen from us in the middle of the holodomors, and i mean not from the point of view of facts, but from the point of view of self-awareness, so well and now this ukrainian self-awareness is being born, with which, say, jews have been living there since the time of the bark kogba uprising and this, why is the main myth of the jews, which is very jewish and is not shared by other peoples who are not perceive the jews like this, this... about the fortress of masada, which was stormed by the romans, all its defenders committed suicide in order
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not to fall into the hands of the invaders, this is the main jewish national myth, and not at all a myth about how we created a theory there relativity, or how wonderfully we created a bank there, that’s all well and good, but it’s not an achievement, but the main thing is the mossad, every person who is there in... israel and has some kind of jewish national consciousness, he goes there and as in jerusalem to see this place of national sacrifice, well, ukrainians now have a lot of such mythological things, you see, because when the people feel threatened, they begin to live in the atmosphere of these myths, so they become a nation of warriors who understand what they are, what they sacrifice for the sake of freedom, if we return to the current situation, israel in essence. to some answer, what is the answer, no one knows, no one knows, except for israel itself, except for the military-political leadership, in your opinion, what
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answer will be the most optimal from the point of view of not and, as they say, not to quarrel with the united states of america, and to, relatively speaking, respond, because israel cannot but respond to what happened. well , israel may believe that it is capable of destroying hezbollah itself in principle. and that he should now deal with the destruction of hezbollah. and by the way, israel has achieved the destruction of hezbollah in recent months. such results, which he did not achieve in the destruction of hamas. and everyone has always said that hezbollah is a much stronger infrastructure organization than hamas. so hezbollah has such opportunities that never before.
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hezbollah's leadership is destroyed and political, that's it as a result, almost all the military latest news was that after hassan nasralu was destroyed. a new israeli strike could lead, it was learned today, to the death of hachem sofiedin, the head of hezbollah's executive committee and the man who was considered the real heir to hassan nasrallah in the situation that developed after he was eliminated. and by the way, you see, the kgb was very careful after the death of nasrallah, because they understood that it was not the end of the story, that... to give him a ceremonial burial, because they believed that if they
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will hold a funeral, then the people who will be participants in this funeral will become targets for the israeli special services, after that, as we understand, they conspired even more seriously. and now, judging by the latest information, israel was able to hit hachem safeidin, when this head of the hezbollah executive committee held a meeting with the leadership that remained, and perhaps not only he died, but also many leading representatives of this terrorist organization, this is also absolutely realistically, it can be so, and in principle i think that the situation here is ... it is absolutely realistic that he died, so israel continues to destroy this organization, this whole story with pagers
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and... walkie-talkies, it led to the fact that a huge number of khozbol fighters were disabled, well, that is, in fact, what israel needs, israel needs , so that lebanon regains its state structures and ceases to be a territory for hezbollah's experiments on the destruction of israel. now, in principle, if hezbollah ceases to be such a driving force, there are real opportunities for electing a new president. lebanon, you know what the president has been gone for more than 600 days, and the government that is now acting on behalf of lebanon is such a temporary government, there is no legitimate government with real powers. so what does this mean in practice? in practice , this means that israel can continue to act in this direction to restore legitimacy to the lebanese state, to restore the ability of the lebanese armed forces to prove that iran
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will no longer be able to do so. depending on their activity in lebanon, it could be one strike, it could be a strike on some military, but not nuclear ones facilities of the islamic republic, that is, nuclear facilities are still excluded, i do not exclude them, i am thinking about how i would act, but i do not want to, it was not only about nuclear facilities, including and for gas and oil, gas and oil facilities. were also theoretically considered by israel as possible for approximately how we hit russian oil depots in such a way as to deprive them of a resource, uh, because by and large their main resource is oil, and by the way, thanks to this resource, they survive under western sanctions, by the way, who buys them oil? china, ugh, china, of course, china buys 90% of iranian oil, but if we
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come to that. what is china's position in this case? well, china, china supports iran and supports russia, what is the position, if it buys cheap oil from them, who does it support? you understand a simple thing: if iran and russia could not sell oil to china, and russia to india, then there would be no war in the middle east and no war in ukraine. the real beneficiary of this war is the people's republic of china. because the war in you need money in any case, you see, if you are under sanctions, you have less money, if no one buys your oil, you have no money at all. at one time, saddam hussein, who did not buy oil, agreed to the program of oil in exchange for its food. there was such a program of the united nations organization in relation to iran and iraq. and with iran, everything is completely different, because iran
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has become to be under sanctions just when there were real opportunities for another economy, the economy of the global south, it served the interests of dictatorships. that is why i say that we are in such a strange situation that on the one hand the civilized world would like to end the conflict in the middle east because it is clearly threatening it, the civilized world would like to end the war in ukraine because this war threatens security europe, first of all, the civilized world introduces sanctions. against iran and against russia to force them to stop the war and to deprive them of the resource for war. the civilized world continues fruitful economic cooperation with china. fortunately now at least made these tariffs against chinese electric cars. ot. both this and this cooperation enrich china and develop its economy. china is absolutely not going to reckon with any values ​​of the civilized world and buys cheap oil from those countries against
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which... the united states and european countries are imposing sanctions, these countries can survive in the sanctions regime and continue wars in ukraine and the middle east, what to do anyway , what to do, it's a vicious circle, but at the same time, of course, then you can blame israel and ukraine for the fact that somehow they don't really want peace, they need to find some kind of compromises with those who can actually continue the war thanks to this economic carousel, well... it's a moral one, and again, what is the way out of the situation we understand, or we force the countries of the global south to adhere to common values, or we have to tell ourselves that we will lose any conflict, we cannot win, we can only stop it there for a certain moment by force, the last question, perhaps, will follow possible answer...

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