glad to see and hear, glory to the heroes, glad to welcome, anton, glad to swear by the viewers of the channel, well, mark, you know, our tireless doomsday clock shows without a single minute the beginning of armageddon or the apocalypse, and the events in the middle east have shown how much everything seriously, at the same time, we understand that the united states has intervened extremely powerfully in the situation with the containment of iran, yes, well, they have at least used their countermeasures. defense on its aircraft carrier group, yes, iran is thinking now, but here i wanted to say no so much about iran or the united states, but about the situation, how it can affect the ukrainian-russian war, we understand that iran, on the one hand, is an ally of russia, it supplies it with ballistic missiles, on the other hand, we understand that the state of israel has extremely tense relations with iran, but on the other hand it is quite calm. but communicates with

the russian federation or the same north korea, well, respectively, according to your estimates, how the situation or the threat of a large, full-scale, bloody, apocalyptic war in the middle east can affect the the situation with the russian-ukrainian war, in particular, when we are talking about the supply of everything necessary. well, i still think that i still think that the conflict in the middle east will not reach the point of transformation into a more global world war. will not have such an impact, but this does not mean that the events there do not affect the situation in ukraine. moreover, i would say that from a military point of view, they can have a very positive effect. this is a simple linear diagram, according to which, if israel retaliates in the coming days on the territory of iran, they can be military objects or objects of energy infrastructure, oil and so on. and among these facilities there may be those engaged in the production of weapons supplied to... therefore, it is very beneficial for ukraine

for this strike to take place, for israel to lead to this strike and destroy at least part of iran's military industrial infrastructure. well, that's obvious. politically, of course, the loss in this theater is for russia, and russia is directly involved, and moscow is involved in events in the middle east, that is quite obvious. its direct military allies are fighting. and iran, and hezbollah, and hamas, and partly related to this is syria, where russian troops are stationed, and the same iranian queer. undoubtedly, a loss in one of the geopolitical theaters will affect the situation in ukraine. this means that moscow, although directly involved in the war, may lose somewhere. and perhaps her interests, to put it mildly, may be harmed, because her allies will lose, sooner or later the main one of them will lose. moscow, well, this is also

a fairly direct logic. israel indeed maintains this contact with moscow. the logic here is simple. we have 100 hamas hostages. moscow is holding back what seems to be israel, in my opinion, the wrong way of looking at things, but this is my opinion, and i do not impose it on anyone, that moscow is holding back both iran and other players in the middle east from going through some line in principle, as i understand it, we are talking exclusively about... iran and, one way or another, about hamas. hezbollah is still a direct proxy of tehran. therefore, moscow, if it has any influence, is indecisive. and yet iran has much more important. moreover, we will say that in the current state of hezbollah, taking into account the deaths of all its leadership members, it does not pose such a threat. this is the threat of activists, the weapons that are there, the accumulation of a large amount of money. they get

a huge income from drug trafficking, few people talk about it, but hezbollah is a huge organizer of drug trade and drug trafficking in this region, but it doesn't matter. in general, now hezbollah does not have the strength to confront israel, so the operation in south lebanon will be successful. i think so according to the results of what will happen, the relations between jerusalem and kyiv, both in military and other terms, will become closer. everything is objective, and it will happen if the role and influence of moscow in the region decreases, not increases, but decreases, i mean in the middle east. then israel has nothing to fear, it will then be able to more openly support ukraine, at the request of common allies, primarily washington, in order to still share military supplies, exchange of intelligence information and other means with ukraine.

october, when hamas, and hamas under the direct control of moscow, not only, but including, attacked southern israel and over a thousand people died, certainly moscow did not prevent this attack, whether it could or not, in my opinion, it probably could , according to the israeli leadership, it could also, but the preservation of this communication with moscow... from the side of its enemies, i think it is not so, but that is already a matter of diplomacy, a matter of great politics, perhaps after the results of this war and after

the results of this escalation it will be clear, maybe we don't know something. and this is extraordinary a correct and useful formula in order to somehow try to outline the current disposition. we don't know much, there was an extremely important visit. well, for example, does iran have nuclear weapons or not? here's who can say that for sure for 100%. i think burns knows that, biden knows that, netanyahu knows that and putin knows that, right? well, here we already understand what the consequences could be, but simply returning to washington's policy, we understand that an extremely important ukrainian visit took place. delegation, in particular president zelenskyi, who was dedicated from the group to two super-important cases: one case is permits to fire at russian military facilities beyond the urals, so delicately call it, there or under the mongolian border,

where, in principle, swarms of our drones do not reach. the second moment, this is undoubtedly a winning plan, but here we go into the thin air of secrets and conspiracy, yes, because in white. they said to the house: they looked, studied, familiarized themselves, there are interesting points, but everything remains, so to speak, confidential, well, conspiracy theorists multiply here, it remains there add more, you know, eternally cheerful professors who already put putin in the refrigerator for the tenth time. so, i would like to start with this super important case, which is called that the strikes on the territory of russia, in particular on military facilities, immediately caused a hysterical reaction. tion of putin. he changed the nuclear strategy of the russian federation on the fly, literally, on the air, on the fly, in particular by using both strategic and tactical means, and accordingly, without even having it changed under his hands, all by heart. this means that putin

began to get hysterical in order to stop this decision. yes, and of course, he wanted to influence the decision-making party first of all. on giving ukraine the right to use long-range weapons transferred by the west, transferred by washington to ukraine for strikes deep into russia. of course, to the west, because it definitely does not make an impression on ukraine. nuclear threats coming from moscow, of course, against the background of 2.5 years of war and hundreds of thousands of victims, will probably not have such an effect. moreover, everyone understands that, let's say, putin definitely realizes that the use of nuclear weapons... first of all , from rhetoric, from threats, and not from the use itself, because rhetoric is the opposite, you can always play back, as peskov did after putin's speech, there it came to the point

that even drones can be considered a reason , after which nuclear weapons can be used, then it started, but no, there is no need to exaggerate everything, it is not so clear. and so on, that is, it says that verbal rhetoric itself is a weapon, but the use of nuclear weapons is not reversible, you cannot play back back, and how do you do it, and therefore those experts who believe that this is exclusively a tool of pressure on public opinion, on the west, on the establishment and the elites of the west, and that it does not necessarily throw over the bridge to use, most likely they are right putin is not ready to use nuclear weapons. because the consequences of its use, i repeat, will be irreversible. the question is whether these threats and this nuclear blackmail make an impression on the west. if they did not provide the opportunity to use it for strikes deep into russia, then it means that there is some effect it has, it certainly has some significance in

the decision-making process of washington and its allies. another issue is the internal political situation in the united states itself. after all, there is a primary election. on november 5, before the election day, before the results of the elections in the usa, this factor will probably be decisive in the issue of giving ukraine the right to use western means to strike deep into the territory of russia. why? because they do not want a built-in situation, they are afraid that trump will come, and not only because the democrats will simply lose to trump, because things will also change strategy. we already understand this, the strategy that will be directed at supporting ukraine. if the democrats despite all the criticism.

institutionalized, declared and implemented, well, as they can, for trump we are talking about the fact that this is support, what will it change, already now, based on his public statements, and what else should this be based on, what should be the criteria for defining trump's program , this was the reason for the dispute, discussion, sometimes they cancel the meeting with zelenskyi, sometimes vice versa. but really, what is she like, trump himself is the one who answers, everything has its own time, we have our own time you honestly talked about the fact that a full-scale invasion is being prepared, you know, there is no, they didn't wrap it all in a piece of paper, they didn't talk about the fact that you think the economy will win, that is, putin's bodvij, he is quite eloquent. his body language, as well as putin's hysteria, it happens directly on the faces of those, his

supporters, who sat in this council, and even here they did not even fly by, they all sat like that, yes, yes, yes, you know, for these 2 years of the war, its course, its intermediate results, kyiv was not taken in three days, it is necessary to clearly say that the system itself has changed, after all, it has changed. this finally took shape in it, despite the fact that some signs indicate an authoritarian, rigid dictatorial regime, but there are still totalitarian elements. and to imagine now that putin's entourage could have even a hint of doubt is impossible, unacceptable, it is on the one hand. and then, we have already seen by type... what are related to the threats

caused to your system, that is, you remove the most loyal ones, shoot and imprison the most loyal ones, why and what how they they will return to the disloyal ones, they will start looking for ways to get rid of you, especially external ones... putin has no way out, the elites have a way out, they can hide, then pretend that they are not guilty of anything. and to whom will putin shift responsibility from himself, to whom? putin has no way out, the elites do. even a certain bortnikov has a way out. yes, he may not be hanged, shot, or imprisoned for life. he will show mossad id, you know, there or. by the way, yes, the logic is interesting, maybe they really have a masadov

certificate, but putin does not have one opportunities, even though he had a fan of these passports and certificates, he has no chance, because for putin this is a fundamental, unavoidable, fatal situation for which he must go to vabank, and for the elite, this is not a hit with uvabank, the elite can get away with it jump off everything, that is why you mentioned the events of february 22, when they decided on the red security the recognition of the republics of the ldnr, and in fact we understood that the issue of starting a war was being decided, and putin needed to show it on tv, putin needed to involve his entire entourage in order to to accept the collective decision so that you can always say it was a collective decision, it was not my personal decision. now he no longer has this reflection, he does not need to try to portray something, everyone already understands that

the war is his area of ​​responsibility, and of course, all those who stand behind him. he was already going to fight for three days, at that moment he tried to use the old approaches, collective, collegial decision-making, but now he cannot lose, the elite can lose the war in ukraine, and what will happen to it, and what, will they take moscow? no, russia's loss is this simply not fulfilling putin's goals. ukraine, you understand, and what does summer lose from this, the whole environment, it doesn't matter if you are a member of the security council or an ordinary employee of some district administration, well, he doesn't lose anything, he stays there. where he was, he works and does what he used to do, but putin is losing everything, you see, here is mark, the goals of the war and putin’s goals, and i discussed with my american friends the situation with zelensky’s victory plan and so on, well, they assessed it as such , they say, in general, the idea is not bad, the key story is where they will be

the elements are not just deterrence of the kremlin, but the interest of the kremlin to enter into... the negotiation process, we understand, so america must hurt putin so much that he would be forced, but, as they say, not a fact, yes, we understand that putin does not managed to achieve those military goals, military-political goals that he set for himself, accordingly, the operational situation on the battlefield changed, we entered into a long, bloody war, yes, and our prospects are quite, you know, vague, accordingly, in your opinion , victory plan, putin's reaction and the so-called, you know, very different signals, from scholz's head, well, i don't want to list all those people who would like, so to speak, to start a certain negotiation process. you know, i 'll tell you this, you know, i'll tell you this, putin would not have paid any attention to zelensky's victory plan and his discussion, discussion, if not for one thing, but the kursk region,

the kursk region, the kursk region, if it concerned the front line in ukraine, the armed forces outside the state border, then probably putin would be lenient about it, yes how he felt about the peace formula. before the august events, before the beginning of the operations of the armed forces. he contemptuously, even, i would say, with some kind of ultimatum, arrogant tone, proposed three conditions that must be fulfilled in order for these negotiations to begin. and everyone understood that these conditions were not fulfilled. i will remind them, on the eve of the peace summit in lucerne, he said: liberate four regions in the administrative borders,

that is, withdraw parts of the armed forces from there. cancel all sanctions, and first from the start of negotiations. and everyone understands this perfectly, no one is stupid, but this is where the kursk region happened, and actually, how can he continue to behave as brazenly, taking into account the fact that you do not know to the end how long the troops will remain there, which will be lost, or about... earlier in i couldn't believe it, but now it's a common place, foreign troops have been on the territory of the russian federation for two months, occupying administrative centers, and this is definitely an exciting, irritating factor that affects putin's decision-making. in

a sense, he became more cautious, a lot more cautious, and in public statements as well. if we are not talking about nuclear blackmail, for example, judge for yourself, he says that it does not matter to us what bandits, bandos, some provocateurs from the ssu are doing, what provocateurs, what are you talking about, there is a war, you occupied 20% of the territories of ukraine, so what did you want, this is the way, as he said, we will continue what we were doing on the front line in ukraine itself, at the same time, i believe that the kursk region and the situation there is the biggest challenge for him after two years of war. because the talk that the war will spill over into russia itself, they were implemented, here they are, yes, now, if sooner or later there is a decision to strike deep into the territory of russia, then it is absolutely clear that these strikes can lead to the continuation of the operation, during which the armed forces of ukraine will occupy new territories in russia, move further to kursk or to

kurchatov or to other large cities in the territory of the kurdish region. this is definitely an annoying factor. the victory plan became not just a slogan, but a kind of threat, because if we are talking only about ukraine, then win, don't win, you liberate your territory, here you can get hurt, and the population of the european part of russia can turn out to be the object of war, and not by an episodic pin strike by drones, but by missiles that carry 200 to 500 kg of explosives, nothing , but a 50 kg drone, if you compare, has different types drones, but none the less. it is absolutely obvious that the damage will be many times greater , taking into account the presence of foreign troops on the territory of arref. could putin be afraid of some kind of indignation at using this situation in oto. for example, the troops of the armed forces of ukraine reached kursk, what then? there only 50-55 km from the same suzha, not such

a big distance, but from kursk to moscow 500. i am not saying that this will happen, i am just talking about the political influence of this factor, and therefore the victory plan is already perceived differently , there is another feeling that putin catches and understands that in reality not everything is so simple, by taking ugledar and pokrovsk you will not... solve the problem of the kurdish region, this is not an automatic solution, they are not connected, you can seize more several places before the new year or after it, although there will probably be a winter break, but this does not mean that you will automatically solve the problem of the presence of foreign troops on the territory of the russian federation by their occupation of a large part of the territory of about 100 km, that is the problem. but there is another point, yes, if there are really some additional tools or additional, so to speak, points that will interest putin, and he will be able to. enter into one or another, be it behind the scenes, be it through the americans, be it through these or other intermediary countries, such as switzerland, a negotiation or pseudo-negotiation process,

well, he cannot just jump out of the war, explaining to the fascist population, which, i don't know, for years before the full-scale invasion was fooled by all his propaganda, he can't tell them, well, you know, we've decided here to rethink our attack on... well, let 's somehow withdraw the troops from new subjects of the federation, that is, we understand that this act is illegal, but this is how they behaved in order to completely cut off all ways of retreat, i don't know if it was for patrushev or someone else who could have conversations with bjorns there or ryshkin, yes we understand, and we understand that this moment is the exit from the other side, well, that putin is ready to play for a long time, that is... well, we did not agree on anything, which means that everything will continue at approximately the same pace for a long, bloody m' choppers well, this is definitely

a dead end, specifically for putin, for the elite, for russia itself, for the population, not a dead end. you know, there is a thesis that putin will sell anything to the population as a victory. not all, still, not all. here i adhere to the opinion that you cannot sell absolutely everything, you cannot portray absolutely everything. victory if it only a concession, a loss, a compromise, and so on, that is, he cannot sell everything due to his political position. the truism that ukraine is not capable of resisting at all and so on, this did not happen, what this shows is that ukraine is a full-fledged state that continues to resist, and even if you imagine that there will be no allies, then how will you manage this territory as you can, only you can repressions, mass murders of coercion of ukraine in the form in which it is now a national state, a european one, to subdue

it, there is no other way, putin has nothing to offer ukrainian society to change its attitude to war, to the government, to the union with russia, there is no instrument, for this it is definitely a dead end, so it could be a forced approach to kyiv, and this would give some kind of chance, and if there is no such thing, they did not even think that such a thing was possible, this is the point: in they didn't have a backup plan, putin didn't have one reserve plan, in fact, eliminating all those who started this war with him, and patrushev and shoigu and so on, this is precisely his relationship, well, gerasimov is holding on, i think, until the new year, he will also be changed, because there must be a visualized symbol defeat, failure in ukraine, for putin it is. resist and insist that this peace be concluded on his terms. of course, putin is looking for peace

talks, of course he wants this peace process and an end to the war because it gives him relief, but he has no other way yet sees and does not consider, because if he makes any compromise, allowing not the release of those new subjects of the russian federation, but simply agrees with the sovereign. and everything else, everything is a defeat, he lost ukraine then, you understand, because of course, nobody ever recognizes the occupation of new territories, that is, legally he does not solve this issue, and he has nothing to do with them , what do you think mark could do to reach putin, so we understand that there is a public part, there is a part. not publicly and there, well, in the public part everyone starts talking, well, not all of them, but there are yavlinskis, for example, let's freeze there, let's freeze, let's understand that this is a cry to nowhere, well, but...

this story about stopping the war, a ceasefire, people will stop dying, we have heard this rhetoric, they will not stop dying, and the war in this sense will not stop, and will continue, it is necessary to create an atmosphere in which ukraine appears to be an opponent of the war, it is necessary to worsen the image of kyiv, that it resists this and thirsts for blood, it is only for this is done, for nothing else, actually these people from they say that everyone is ready, but only... i emphasize once again, it is directed against ukraine, because it is empty talk, a simple litmus test, a simple example of how this can be achieved, very simply, i am sure, i suspect, there is insider information, that putin was offered many times to stop mutual shelling, that is, you stop shelling the territory of ukraine, and ukraine

stops shelling the territory. let's define a zone of no more than 20-30 km along the front line, but no more strikes on the territory of ukraine, even in kherson, even in okhmaditya, even in in other places, why not agree on this, why not stop destroying the whole country, putin no longer agrees, that is, what does this show, it shows that he does not want any peace, no way... a group of semi-loyal moscow intellectuals is forming, i will not i don’t even want to name them, everyone knows them, who should repent in european capitals and form a non-governmental position of peace, all this is also launched by the kremlin, and the mandate of those people will be, conditionally speaking, they just know, a wandering tent, or they will be represented there specifically.. .

someone's signature, of course, because abramovich deals with this, he is assigned to deal with this, he pulls these people up, this is specifically done by abramovich and the persons connected with him, that is, it is a number of harsh officials who are related in this sense, probably surkov too is related to this, again, they are talking about it, it is similar, because abramovich is engaged in exchanges, abramovich interacts in turkey with the leadership, grain. to say that washington does not understand this is ridiculous, washington understands everything perfectly, it's just him does something else, there is an understanding of the situation there, to say that they are naive or stupid there, then no, they understand everything, another question, maybe it is beneficial for the negotiation process to be and for putin not to fall completely, we

talked about it many times. there is no predicted person. they are probably working on this issue, but they are not ready to take too fast and reactive actions to achieve the result, according to the same plan of victory, because it will lead to chaotic consequences in russia itself. and they will think about it more globally, for a long time distance, so no one will go to a simple ceasefire, but at the same time... they will not give up interaction and attempts to find a compromise in order to start this peaceful negotiation process. he saw each other in kateri and now stopped due to the beginning of the operation of the armed forces of ukraine in kursk oblast at the beginning of august. again, we seem to proceed from this insider information and rumors that the press published. i assume that there could be some consultations in the country, why not, there could be. another question is what are the consequences of this kind of initiative, if it is

public hearing. process, the parameters on which these negotiations will be based should be defined. the ukrainian side, like the international community , proposed a formula for peace: international law, an understanding of international security. we all know what respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity of the country and so on is. what china, even in its 12 principles last year, published and declared in 2013 regarding the commitment of the first principle to international law. his recognition and respect, and since bases are not defined, the dispute continues that where are the red lines, so to speak, geopolitical realities, the right of force, you understand, the right of force is being discussed, and moscow cannot prove its primacy in this matter, it has not demonstrated this right of force, so if kyiv were taken, then of course one could talk about the right of force, the force of law prevailed, in this case we are dealing with brazen blackmail, which...