we are still in that 50/50 percentage where no one knows and no one can predict who will be the next president, i think no one knows, no one can predict who will be the next president, precisely because you don't know what the electoral college will be like, and precisely because sociology speaks of the authority of the candidate among the entire population, in ugly states, only there. there, in principle, sociology is still on the verge of statistical uncertainty, in some it is not, in some it is already visible, in some on benefit harris, of course, but anyway, this is exactly why the debates of the candidates for the position of the vice president of the united states are so much attention, we in any other situation would not pay attention to them at all, do you ever remember that you were interested a candidate for the position of vice president, hardly, but biden is already with someone... was obama's vice president, he

had a debate with someone, we don't even remember with whom, who this person was, she definitely was and it was some a strong republican politician, we just didn't pay any attention to it, now we're in a different situation where every event seems decisive, every event is not decisive, because this vp debate, it was only interesting because everyone thought vance was going to be hysterical. the way he behaves at rallies, and wentz seems to have decided to use this debate to show his own political agenda in the soft face of trumpism, which means he's thinking about the next presidential election , that his current presidential election don't bother much, and in any case, if donald trump even wins the presidential election, this will be his last term, unless he changes something significantly in the united states, he will have to in... refuse to

run for the presidency of the united states for the next term, and then the question arises, who is the heir of trumpism, because we have to understand that this is no longer republicanism, trumpism, and it is clear that in such a situation, when the question arises, can trumpism survive without trump, and here, when a person, it looks from one side civilized, and on the other hand professes the values ​​of trumpism, then this can be a good option. for everyone, both trumpists and anti-trumpists in the republican party of the united states, if trump loses the election, someone has to, because trump is unlikely to be as strong after that, not as a candidate, but as a leader , i don't argue, i don't argue, yes, but in any case, such a ... situation can be

absolutely real, we understand that very well, and in this regard, frankly, i i can't really imagine what event could significantly affect the course of the election campaign, you have probably already forgotten that there was an attempt on trump, remember the two, well, the first one was the most interesting, yes, a real person died there, trump was really on the verge of a millimeter from for deaths and everyone believed that this definitely made his election campaign, but do you remember how bookmakers and in general all these forecasts, even artificial intelligence, showed that trump has an 80% probability of winning, and i said at the time, this does not mean anything , a couple of weeks will pass and that's about it forget it, this is not a winning moment, there will be other pictures, calm down because this is a different situation, people who hate trump. won't like him because

he got shot at, people who love trump they absolutely don't need an extra shot to say he's their hero, for people who support trump, his fist there was a show of strength and mitzis, people who hate trump, once again saw a person of totalitarian and authoritarian composition, who will go to any lengths for his goal, which he has foreign, nothing has changed, but most americans are even watching. did not want to understand this, did not want to understand what kind of world they are in, and believe that something can change in this situation, all this is so important, what we said, and you know, this person will win the elections on november 5, it is impossible , a month left until the end of the company, a decisive month that will not decide anything, because by and large everything we need to know, we will not know until the morning of the sixth. november or later, therefore

that you are right that the republicans are preparing to fight to challenge the results of the election, but there is a decision of the supreme court of the united states on donald trump. which effectively rehabilitated any of his actions as president of the united states, even when it came to capitulations. and so joseph biden, thanks to this decision of the supreme court, was given the opportunity to act decisively against any attempts to violently change the results of the election. and not to be afraid of any responsibility. that is, the justices of the united states supreme court. that's it conservative majority. that decided to save donald trump from being accused of participating in an actual coup d'état in the country, it was an attempted coup d'état, there is no doubt that if mike pence had followed the path of participating in this coup d'état and refused

to implement the results of the election, we would not know at all , what, what happened, what the procedure would look like in general, what the legitimacy of the american government would look like, it is not clear, but... now joseph biden, when there will be any attempts to storm something there, uh, speak with with some radical demands, he can act absolutely decisively, he can stop these people, he can use force against them and absolutely not fear any charges because the supreme court has already ruled that the president of the united states in that position has immunity in situations like that, so these judges, they've given trump a gift along with that, but at the same time they've made it impossible for him to take any forceful action that would help him get back into the white house. and this is also an important point says that when you make one decision, very often you have to face

the consequences months later, which nullify its significance, because you understand that if, say, the supreme court of the united states decides that donald trump is guilty, and that he should... answer and that he does not have immunity, now, on the one hand, there would be some kind of regular process, but how many of these processes are there on trump, as we can see, his political sect absolutely does not pay attention to these processes, and on the other hand on the other hand , joseph biden would think 100 times, how should he to behave so that the next day after the end of the term of office of the president of the united states, he will not be in the dock next to trump, this is such a precarious situation, and the situation is very unstable, but now we can confidently say that ... the president of the united states has the opportunity to defend the results elections, the fact that the republicans are so preparing to defend them themselves, the evidence is that they basically accept their defeat, and how will this help them? will it help them, well, they appealed, if, if

people, voters voted and voters, voted for another candidate, what will help them not to simplify the appeal. there was already a situation in the state of florida, that is, which brought george bush jr. to the presidency, that is, it is about the fact that it is possible that the results will be invalidated somewhere, yes, and it will help to simply cancel a certain part of the votes, of course, and get another absolutely the result of the electorate, we don't know how the situation would have developed if there had been, if the votes in florida had been counted, are you sure that george bush jr. then by... won the election, what's the basis of your, that's where you're really, that's where you 're really right that the republicans may be getting ready to probably cancel in

theory, in theory, again, because we don't know how to cancel, recount some precincts it is possible to cancel so that, if in certain states, which are shaky, let's say, there, issues will be decided by hundreds of votes, then in order to cancel in some precincts, conditionally so that the result is overturned, or in the entire state, in order to overturn the number of voters, so with on its benefit, perhaps, perhaps so entirely, so in this respect, it seems to me, we have to understand that there are still a lot of surprises waiting for us, this is a campaign. which will be very, very serious and then be a sign of danger all over the world, everyone understands perfectly well that this is a choice of the future for america, that this is a choice of the future for europe, that this is a choice of the future for ukraine, for russia, these are decisive years, in fact these 2024,

2028, it will show what the world will be like in the next decades of the 21st century, and in which will we live for a century, in a war or in a peaceful one? because an accurate awareness of challenges and dangers depends on this cadence, and of course, next month we will follow up as much as possible. in the united states of america, because they, too, will have a huge impact on what will happen in ukraine in the coming months, not just months, but years, and maybe even decades. we have a little break, the saturday political club will be back in a few minutes, so don't switch, we still have a lot of interesting topics. and what do you think about lakalut fix? reliably fixes, my dentist advised me, even

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collect funds for 20 ddi mavic clasic drones and 10 mavic 3t. yes, the amount is not small, but the life of your siblings and relatives is much more expensive. we really hope for your support, donation and sharing. let's not let the occupier take a single step further and accelerate the victory together. glory to ukraine. glory to the heroes. saturday political club, live broadcast, and we are back with a new topic, all. you know what happened this week as well, is the strike by iran with a large number of ballistic missiles up to 200 units on the territory of israel. we are also watching israel's strikes on lebanon to destroy the terrorist hezbollah. in fact, in addition to this, we

see that all this has an international context, it all affects the elections as well. in the united states of america there is a reaction from biden, there is a reaction from other representatives, in particular from european structures, but the general context is that the escalation in the middle east and the situation in the middle east in general now is extremely explosive, and we see that israel is not backing down from its position. continues this limited operation of watering down hezbollah and iran continues to rattle weapons, including now we are also watching and expecting that israel will probably retaliate against iranian territory, and the question is what will that

response be, will it be limited answer, will it be an answer on certain infrastructural issues... in particular, on nuclear facilities, the president of the united states of america, joe biden appealed to israel to respond more gently and not to strike these nuclear facilities, which we have already talked about. still, mr. vitaly, we see that iran dared to strike, yes, after a pause that it took for several months. at least, well, it was already a blow after the assassination of nastrala, you know, and it was already a blow when, as they say, they, well, conventionally speaking, iran wanted to save its face in this way, and, to put it cynically enough, well, i i don't know, you think it's just the face, maybe it's just him all the time expects that some missiles, they will hit

the target, well 181 missiles, that's sorry, it's not, there's another point of view that this strike... uh was one that was supposed to do some sort of demonstration, you know it seems to me that this is conspiracy, well, again, well, you and i live in a country that is constantly attacked by ballistic missiles, not all of them hit the target either, is this a demonstration from the russian side, or do they still want to go somewhere to get well, in our case, after all, a large number of missiles reach the target, is it true because we have a different system, that is, in your opinion, after all, the goal of iran was to hit some specific objects , of course, the military objects of israel , for sure, they simply did not succeed, but this does not mean, first of all , that this is the last blow, and it doesn't mean that they didn't want to, because this whole idea that all these blows are given for beauty

is a very strange idea, well, imagine, you yatalahamen, can you imagine? you understand that israel can hit bunkers, you don't feel safe in principle, because you are the very leader of the state who wants to destroy israel, israel has nothing to lose with you, if you are killed, it will be a lesson to your successor that he should be a little more careful with israel, because he will end up like you, it is clear that you are an elderly person, you are already preparing to meet allah, you can put everything on the line, but you know, usually dictators, they want to live, not... to meet allah before their real time comes , so here is the story, of course you want to show israel, that you are strong, or you should be feared, and not want to be eliminated, that you are not some piece of shit, by the way, you know that ayatollah khamenei convinced hassan nasrala so that he and nasrala were sure that nothing

like this would happen , that israel can't destroy it, that it's a violation of the rules of the game, and israel with... you know, what do you think israel's response will be in terms of, i think it 's that it's going to be a complicated thing, it's going to be related with how the situation will develop now in the relations between israel and the united states, as far as benjamin ready to be confronted by joseph biden on the eve of the us presidential election, because this issue is not about biden, it is about harris. and about israel's future relations with washington, because netanyahu still understands that trump is not necessarily the only one who can win, he would certainly be more comfortable that trump won, but he sees reality the same way as everyone else. we see it, i ask another question here, actually the context of what is happening in the middle east, it is

important both for the united states of america and for the elections in the united states. that's what now is happening, conditionally in the triangle of iran, israel and lebanon, who benefits more trump or haris? well, rather trump, it's hard, it's hard to say. you see, on the one hand it benefits trump, who blames the democracies for their determination, on the other hand, the democratic electorate, there are a lot of people who believe that israel is using excessive force, and they may believe that if they vote democrat, so will the united states will continue this policy, and if trump becomes president, well, then israel will feel at ease much more confidently in the middle east, then... that is, both parties play their electorate, on the other hand, biden, harris, they support israel, destroyed, screwed up, and

thus do not forget that electorate that sympathizes with israel in their own party, they just have to, well, how should i say it, maneuver, trump doesn't need to maneuver, and his supporters say, but biden wants to contain israel, and israel... is actually on the verge of a new holocaust, and there are already other people who believe , no it is israel destroys the palestinians and the lebanese himself and acts completely disproportionately when, trying to destroy the terrorists, he degrades the civilian population both in gas and infused, you can think so, you understand, that is, it is unknown how much it increases trump’s electorate, he simply convinces trump’s electorate of the correctness of trump’s position , well, conditionally, trump's position is the same as on ukraine. is that look, world war iii is starting, or look, because i'm not the president, there are wars going on in the world, that's his main

message and his main concept, maybe not even about who he supports, but maybe even about the fact that, look, only i will become the president, all wars will end, ukraine will end, israel will end, lebanon will be at peace, for good. approaches in ukraine will end, because he will agree with putin, in israel will end, then in the middle east, because he will not, yes, yes, yes, there is a completely different vision, will not stop netanyahu, and then israel will achieve final victory , and again in both of these cases, i don't really understand where this one comes from approach, you understand, in both cases, there will be a war in the middle east tomorrow, the day after tomorrow will be a year, remember... november, october 7, 2023, which of the experts who dealt with the middle east said that this will continue for a year, when someone

said, i remember saying that it could go on for several months, because there is no political solution, everyone looked at me very skeptically, what a few months, and they will just agree at some point about the hostages , about all this, the situation right there, you understand how similar the situation is in the near future east with the situation in ukraine. with the fact that there is no political solution here, but realistically speaking, we talk a lot about israel and its reaction there, but there is hamas, which has its own base, and there are supporters of hamas all over europe and america, who they say, palestine from the river to the sea, palestine from the river to the sea, this is palestine over there from the jordan to the mediterranean sea, this slogan does not imply existence. which states, that is, many can say that in fact the way out of the situation is for two states to exist on the territory of the former

mandated palestine, but the palestinian arabs themselves do not seek it, if they wanted it, they would not vote for hamas, if they wanted it, they would most likely vote for fatah there, and now this second state was possible . we are talking a lot about the mood that existed in the palestinian environment after the signing of the vosla agreements and after yasser arafat returned to romela as the head of this palestinian autonomy, claiming that he would become the head of the palestinian state, and in fact his return was connected with the first palestinian intifada, but what did arafat meet in ramallah, a person who had not been in the palestinian environment for a very long time, who led the emigrants. organization, he saw a radicalized society, he saw a society that basically told him, sorry, but we absolutely do not want to negotiate with israel, your task is to force israel to make new

and new concessions. these concessions are to weaken him so that we can destroy him, and arafat, of course, as a person who wanted to get power, became radicalized, along with this society that they now led, because it's one thing when you lead a migrant organization in which you can make different decisions, and it's another thing when you forced to reckon with the mood of society, which says: let's destroy them all, let's, here and there for... for example, yesterday i was at the lviv book forum, there was some kind of discussion, which was related to how the war in israel is reflected in the war in ukraine. after of this discussion, some person who was there opened a book, well, with a palestinian flag, and this issue is not about the flag, i think that people who are supporters

of palestinian statehood there, they have the right to ... express their positions in civilized ways , but this book was called return to haifa, to haifa, not to ramallah, not to hebron with bethlehem, to haifa, i immediately remembered my fellow student at the faculty of journalism in the gaza strip, who told me: "i want to live in tel aviv, in which there is no there will be no jew". and it was a person, no an islamist radical, this was a man who was a member of the palestinian komsamol, absolutely secular. from my point of view this man should not have paid any attention at all to the nationality of those with whom he wanted to live, he should have been, he would have liked to live with the working class, it is true, but he had no idea of ​​the working class, he had the idea that there is a palestinian working class, and the jewish working class has nowhere to go, and so there is no political solution, because the idea in israel has always been that if it reaches an agreement with the arab world, then it...

israel's peaceful existence. now the question is the following. the arab world has basically reached an understanding. practically all arab countries are calm about the existence of israel. when hassan nasrallah was killed. i read in the lebanese media, interviews with lebanese, shiites in different countries of the world. and here is livanka, who lives in... new york, she says: "i went to a restaurant, we all cried there, our beloved nasrala died. we were all worried, people from new york came to this restaurant, in riyadh he said, we have to do here, everything looks great. we have rejoice, if we only show our grief, we will simply be expelled from saudi arabia as facilitators of terrorism, and so in many arab countries it turns out that

the supporters of radicalism, anti-semitism." people can themselves and in saudi arabia or in other countries, they simply deport them, or they will go to prisons as terrorists, also because saudi arabia considers its own shiite minority a danger to its own statehood, here is the answer to your question, it means that it turns out that everything is solved for the slaves, but there is an unresolved palestinian problem. which no one understands how to solve, because if they want to destroy you, if the population that lives in this territory wants to live in yours, then how do you solve this problem, it's like between russians and ukrainians, if russians think that ukraine is russia , you can beat the wall with your head, you will not convince them, well, there is no political solution, it does not exist, it does not exist, it is the same here, so if these people have support in iran, then on today, the key is iran, here i am...

that the islamist regime in iran, this islamic steocracy is being destroyed, that a democratic state is emerging there, this state will not support israel in the palestinian issue, it will demand the creation of a palestinian state, but it will not give money to radical palestinian groups, and it will not try to destroy lebanese statehood, as iran is doing now, because in fact we understand that lebanon is a state that does not function precisely because of efforts. iran and its proxy forces on the territory of lebanon. we just have to explain to the audience that lebanon is a multi-national state, i have many christians and sunnis, er, friends, and in fact, these people are completely hostages of the shia community, which is not the majority, which makes up 25-30% of the population there. and these people do not allow him to elect a president, do not allow him to form a