on water and soda 10% in pharmacies plantain bam and oskad. exclusively on the air of our channel. congratulations, friends, the politclub program is on the air on the espresso tv channel. the most relevant topics of the week: nato member countries have huge arsenals, and russia is already on the verge of exhausting its resources. topics that cause... in our society, this is the question of trump's victory, what it is, an analysis of the processes that change the country and each of us, what else the russians can do, whether they are able to use, say, the resources of an alliance with them lukashenka's army, vitaly portnikov and the guests of the project, read the whole service, accept my singing, thank you, it was difficult, but i was just interested, but it is absolutely not cool, they help to understand the present and predict the future. encouraged the united states

to conclude a bilateral security agreement with us. a project for those who care and think. politclub every sunday at 20:00 at espresso. good health once again, 18:31. a minute and as i promised, oleg sahakyan, political scientist, co-founder of the national platform for sustainability and consolidation, good health, mr. oleg, you and i are starting a long saga, i am afraid that we will not finish it, someone will finish it, because we will now discuss this plan with you in good health, which supposedly exists somewhere, joining nato in exchange for the occupied territories, ukraine is being offered . the german model,

the financial times writes about it, the washington post writes about it, well, in short, everyone writes about it and ukrainian resources have already started to write about it, i even read it all from someone yesterday. so, mr. oleg, i will tell you frankly, if president zelensky called me and asked what to do, i would say to join nato under all conditions, i understand that i am exposing myself to those people who are now saying that i am a traitor, tell me. if it will be easier for you that i am a traitor, say that i will be like a medicine for you, and what would you say to mr. oleh, mr. president zelensky, if he called you, and i would say that at the moment the question is not even worth an introduction of ukraine to nato, there is a question of inviting ukraine to nato, and inviting ukraine to nato is only a formality, and accordingly, we need it, but not as a recipe for completion russian-ukrainian war. this is a completely

parallel, necessary task. we need to be in nato, and there should be no illusions that nato will protect us or fight for ukraine in the russian-ukrainian war. nato avoids a confrontation with russia in every possible way and does not want a military confrontation with russia. they can't even turn a blind eye to russian missiles and drones flying over their territory. they are ready to ignore the use of combat, combat chemical substances, like the newcomers in britain, where. british subjects died, not only suffered russian beegliches to britain, they are willing to turn a blind eye to the attempts on the directorate, to a series of attempts that were implemented in bulgaria, also on the owner of a defense enterprise, on other sabotages carried out by russia, and against this background, we believe that the invitation to nato, is it really a security guarantee? no, not a security guarantee.

if this choice is on the table, yes, and imagine, turn on your imagination and imagine that this is a real choice, they say, crimea can someday, donbas can someday, and nato now, let’s see, maybe you will take this crimea and and donbas back to itself, if there is such a choice, because we will still be talking about it in the coming weeks and months, it is obvious, one way or another... it is like this choice of nato or territory, take territories, fight for territory, die for the territory, for the donbass, for the crimea, or join nato after all, and then think about what to do with the territories, please, the problem is that they simply cannot stand such a choice, because nato is not able to guarantee security at the moment , and accordingly, no one in nato will guarantee ukraine's security as a ticket to war with russia, on the next day russia is hybrid. do not probe

these limits of what is permissible, and nato will not do anything, and ukraine will say that this is budapest memorandum number two, only now i can bury it under me in the senate. the war can spread, then russia's hands are untied. destabilize moldova, leave, devour it in a few months, and a year later, having already surrounded ukraine, ignite it together with taiwan, the chinese operation, along with other points, and then the west will definitely not draw such a wide front line, and the russian-ukrainian war, activation, here the breakdown of the truce, will be the smallest problem among the list of problems to which the west will have to respond, because here their interests are not directly connected, let's be honest, here values ​​suffer, but we do not have oil ones. countries that belong to the west, we do not have enterprises that produce chips, on which the entire western economy depends, we do not have a lot of everything that would pragmatically tie their financial interest here and for many reasons. accordingly, at present, even the very statement of the question, or nato, or the territories, it is impossible, in

the case of germany, there was an attitude to weaken the soviet union, in our case, if you would say, we take nato and work together to make it non-military. to destroy russia, one could say, but we are being taken into nato precisely in order to prevent russia from being fucked, which they fear. if we were to be taken into nato with what they say, the territories that are currently occupied become a common goal for their de-occupation, diplomatically, by other means, in particular, by creating broader coalitions, and ukraine joins the coalition in other parts of the world, in order to overcome this army of evil as a whole and enter a new world order in which there will be free territories. no, they say there, we are not ready to recognize the problems of today, we are not ready to work on chronic problems, we want to cover up the russian-ukrainian war with a plaster, pretend that the current world structure is still viable, and the next round of its crack at the seams, it will pass ukraine, only we will be in much worse conditions, and russia during this time

is regrouping much better, this is exactly my next hard question, that is, listening to one good person like this will not do... to reject this political scientist oleg sahakyan, yes, russia is in very good shape, and ukraine with the whole event is in very bad shape, and we are only retreating here and we put our hands together like that, and they go with a wide step and overcome everything and impose their agenda, and we only retreat, it's not true, mr. oleg, no, it's not true. you're right, i didn't say we're retreating, i said no, if the person who watched this hour of the program has to ask what you heard, then they, they will say, well yes, mr. oleg, said that ukraine is so weak in the west, and we are retreating, and the russians are such, such powerful guys are moving

forward, that's what he would say, this this someone , well, i’m paraphrasing, now because of fears, because of indecision, because of... external problems, the find is ready to step into a trap and drag ukraine into it, we must not allow ourselves to step into a trap and must demonstrate that this is a folder and explain that it is not , the way out of this situation is absolutely the opposite, joining nato has to move in parallel, and this is in the interests of european security, and the russian-ukrainian war, it must look for other answers and recipes for it, they are also on the table and known, but you cannot cross these two things, because otherwise we fall into the herd and that. .. leads us away from the real problem, real challenges, creating the illusion that the problem can supposedly be solved. this is a canvas, you know, which you can then poke through with your nose and it will turn out that there is still a whole world hiding behind it. yes, well, without the air, you and i

will continue the discussion, because i absolutely do not i see in your logic or in the logic of the logic of the west, i do not see, because in fact. i see, the only problem in any construction is putin's problem, how to force him to do something, he obviously does not want to do anything, it is obvious that he understands that every day and week his power is decreasing, and ukrainian and western power does not decrease, at least, i do not say that it increases, and he has to do something in those conditions, well, in short, it is difficult. a long question, but isn't it related that we everyone paid attention to this, that chancellor scholz will speak on the phone with putin for the first time in two years, or will this not be the proposal, let's somehow arrange some peace

talks with the condition that you take it away, we do not recognize crimea and donbas as russian, but in fact he is with you, and we are with... so we all stop shooting, yes, and ukraine is joining nato, why did katser suddenly decide to talk to the president of russia? i think that it can be. and the chancellor takes on the toxic role of establishing additional communication channels with putin bypassing hungary and all others, because now they are capitalizing on their toxic role of contacts with russia, which is one of the key, let's say, capitals, the so-called four , and chancellor scholz, who already has low ratings today, let's say, and can act in this way, he it is likely that he wants to demonize this role of hungary and other mediators, to come forward with... or with other initiatives, his task, to put it very simply, is to take a stick and feel whether the child

is alive in the kremlin and find out how adequate or not, in general, there is what to talk about or not, without third parties, i'm not sure that there will be some specific initiatives or that the initiatives of negotiations will be promoted directly, but for the event it is very important to see how far putin is in a certain adequate state and how quickly it is possible to conclude any drafts of any potential agreements. okay, now about good russians, we just talked about putin, that is, a bad russian, and there is an allegedly good russian named kara murza, he addressed the parliamentary assembly of the council of europe and said some fantastic words, for example, that europe together with the russia of the future, which will probably be led by people like karamurza, will be, together they will build a real free europe, that's what we see. now mr. volodymyr, and i thought, well, well, they

are sick, that is, they are not only found in the kremlin, but you just said that you should call scholz and find out if he is at all conscious putin, so this one is also bald, like i am, well, more or less bald, russian, so here he is, and he also says that together, holding hands with friends, we will go... to the liberation of europe from what, or what in europe is putin, or in europe kimcher, kimchinin, i can’t understand, maybe you can, mr. oleg, i can’t particularly comment on it somehow, because the problem here is not that it is good or bad, the problem is that it is russian, and this is the key, and the problem is not that we love or don't love, that russian, what it is, is identifying oneself with... a non-existent state, because the russian political nation did not take place, the russian national

state did not appear, and they are this russian opposition , even the best of them, they are the product of that system that does not exist, and i appeal to that virtual russia, which does not exist, which did not take place, which was eaten up by the russian federation, this russian world, russian liberal culture, russian fascist culture and all that is related to the russian world and... that is why karamorza is a great tragedy of the russian liberal opposition, they are an opposition without a country, without a state, because they are marginalized by their own state, and for them to happen, they must abandon the prison of nations and really concentrate on russia as a nation-state, and not on russia as an empire, but they are not able to do this do they they don't want, they don't want to admit that russia needs to rebuild, and then it will appear in them too. perhaps, in today's russia, they have no future if they remain a liberal position, they

only have a future if they are the same fascist, ruskomirov alternatives to putin without changing the system, and then they are divided into those who simply admit that they are really imperialists under a liberal skin, and for those who do not admit this to themselves, the liberal position remains without a state and without a country and without prospects, they are marginalized in their own the country, that is, they are incurable as poles... the political class is for putin, against putin, for big russia, for little russia, these are incurable people and they have no prospects, i understood correctly, absolutely, well, i would say not incurable, but they are pointless, there is only one thing now, either useful or pointless, they are not useful, respectively, well, now they are animators and reenactors, only the first reenactors of aly girkin are trying to reconstruct the russia of the past. and these are trying to sell russia in the future, which did not exist, well, that's it this is their difference, but putin lives in real

russia, and russians live in real russia, and both the first and the second, they live in some russias of the past and future, which do not exist. thank you very much, thank you very much, oleg sahakyan, political scientist, co-founder of the national platform for stability and cohesion, was with us, now let's talk a little about energy, i'm just surprised that we will end this conversation like this today. with my memories today, i watched in the morning, for the first time in the last two years i heard some russian oppositionist saying that it is necessary to establish meeting. to do, it is necessary to reboot, that is , finally i heard something sober, and not like what we just discussed with mr. to build a good europe, otherwise europe

could not build itself without russia, well, less so. oleksandr kharchenko, director of the research center. ethics, as i promised, will now appear before us, good health, mr. alexander, thank you for finding for us, for it's sunday, so tomorrow is good evening, tomorrow, october 7, i don't know if it's in honor of the birthday of the president of the russian federation, the governments of slovakia and ukraine will meet in uzhhorod and discuss whether to extend the contract. about the supply of gas to slovakia in particular, in fact to slovakia, as i understand it, to austria and to hungary, should i continue, and today, all day, all evening, when i host the program, i say, how would the president call you, mr. oleksandr, asked whether to continue like this or not, what do you want? answered, i would say that i'm very glad that i don't have to make this decision, it's really

not an easy one, ah, look, it's definitely not about... it's about continuing some contracts, well, there's no question about that, ukraine will definitely not extend the contract with gazprom, but if you look at the letter of the european rules, just the letter of the european rules, ukraine, as a candidate for the european union, has no reason to refuse austrian, hungarian, or any other companies, if they will contact the ukrainian company ogtsu. and they will say dear ogtsu company, we have contracts here, we need to pump gas, please pump, here is the eu directive that obliges you, that is, really obliges you to do this, and there are no political instruments that would prohibit it, and the ukrainian the company must either risk refusing to go to some tribunals,

there are european arbitrations and most likely lose a lot of money if they refuse, or there must be a completely different political decision, when politicians either in europe or in ukraine will say, everything we decided, we no longer pump gas, all the consequences of this decision accepted politically, let's go, that's how we do it, nobody said that anywhere, yes, i thought about it too and thought that, well, if ukraine refuses, someone will not refuse.

this is the question that everyone is discussing now that saudi arabia says that they will lower prices now, and then raise prices, but they are calling out russians, someone else, kazakhs, russians, i don't remember who from the market, will become so more- less monopolists, and it will be very good for them, as much as it is possible, why am i asking about the possibility, we all know, even i know, which are not... in energy, what predicting the price of oil is very difficult, because if i knew and could predict, then i would not be talking to you, i would be sitting somewhere, i don't know where, well, i would be sitting in my plane or somewhere on the french coast of the mediterranean, in to some big house, but i'm not sitting,

so i don't know, but what's the point here, that it's beneficial for the americans. 50 dollars per barrel, and saudi arabia is profitable at 10 dollars per barrel, i mean, well, when will they start it, and the russians, in short, must somehow determine the number there, 53.2 dollars, when the americans benefit, and the russians do not benefit, and then the russians will lose, this is possible, in principle, please. it is possible, i will tell you more that it is saudi arabia - those people, as you correctly described, who sit in their own plane when they want, yes there, or are in u... when they want on their own island and so on and so on so on. in fact, today saudi arabia determines, so the circumstances in the oil markets have developed, that

saudi arabia determines the price level. for a very long time, it kept pace with russia, which told saudi arabia, guys, you and i will not extract very much, we do not strain there at all, we extract at a minimum, but the price on the market will be high, we will make money... we should, and after several years of such a situation, the saudis learned that russia almost constantly deceived them and extracted more than they promised to extract as part of this agreement in fact, and constantly pumped additional oil there in the shadow regime in various ways into the markets, and now, it seems, the time has come to react to this, for them the most profitable reaction is really increase production, it is very easy for them to do it, there is a comfortable situation there, increase production and quite quickly, and this will mean a rather rapid drop in prices in the market as a whole, if

this happens, we have to thank them madly, the russians even at the level of 50-55 dollars per barrels are feeling extremely bad, and it will be, you know, such an additional front... in fact, an oil front against russia. another issue, besides the ukrainian war, is the arab-israeli war. and i was thinking like this, correct me if, if you have to correct me, that it is not beneficial for the ukrainians to attack israel on the oil capabilities of iran, on the nuclear ones, maybe, well, i... if it is neutral or profitable, but if you hit oil, then there will be less oil, the price will be higher and it will be more profitable for the russians, what do you say, you

are absolutely right, and more than i support this opinion, for ukraine, strikes on any iranian oil facilities are a direct danger, a direct danger of rising oil prices, and of course, well, i know that the americans are already publicly urging israel not to do this and... and well, it is in the best interests of ukraine not to do this happened, so let's hope that the wisdom of the israeli people will be enough for this. what kind of winter is ahead of us, please tell me, because i see a big discussion among experts, and she, even i see what the discussion is, one part says: it will be very difficult, very, very, very difficult, if you do not give money that's why he will build such large defense structures, and then it will be easier, and for some reason i see that there is some kind of corruption scheme here, other people who

probably do not want to get into the pocket or cannot get into the pocket of the state, say listen, well, we will survive the winter for all the winter under all conditions, it will be difficult in some places, in some places not so difficult, but worse than, for example, in july of this summer, well for... what do you say, mr. oleksandr, look, well, in fact, there is a part that you and i can predict, that is, let's imagine that there are no attacks, yes, if there are no attacks and we go through the winter with the energy system that we have today, then basically nothing no terrible, apocalyptic things will happen there, yes, there will be certain restrictions in conditions of frost. they will actually be quite comfortable at the temperature there, well, except that -10-15 for two or three weeks can reach eight

hours a day there or something like that, that's the maximum, it's the maximum maximum, so to speak, it's softer than in july, but only on the condition that everything works here, and in our power system, in principle, quite a lot of strength has already been built and a lot of protection has been done, and there is only one place left. in fact, where there is no protection, these are energy atom facilities, because all other companies that are responsible for the production of electricity and transportation, or are building, or have already built, a certain defense that has proven itself very well, that has shown that it almost completely nullifies the arrival of drones, it significantly nullifies the arrival of missiles, and even if missiles have arrived, everything can be restored much faster, but unfortunately, energoatom did not complete this work... and only in the last week and a half basically announced that it will sign contracts and build something, so this danger remains with us, unfortunately, this

part has not been completed, and eh... here i think , the country's leadership must understand why, i i won't tell you here, i don't have influence and i probably don't, because these are very sensitive and, in fact, secret moments, how and what is happening there, but the situation is as it is, so either we hope that there will be no attacks, and then approximately everything is fine, or there will be attacks, and honestly, if they will be on those objects that are not protected, then we are really in for it. hard winter and then the scenario is very difficult, we will still win, we will still survive, but there will be days when the electricity may not be there for 18 hours, for example, or 20 hours on there will be no electricity for a day, because our nuclear plants are now the basis of electricity supply in principle, here you have to remember, mr. oleksandr, you can somehow, well, not directly,

not even indirectly, but theoretically. because this is really a question, but why didn't the energat take care of putting up some kind of protection, well, because it was so natural, it was summer and everyone understood that it had to be done, that winter was ahead and so on and so on, so what it could just be that they gave a bribe of 2 million from russia and said that you are not building anything there or how it is, well sooner or later it will become known, here is another question, it is... obviously, if i were to ask you if you told someone to another journalist, and everyone would talk about it, why didn't they thought about it, i will tell you honestly, i cannot explain it to myself, because the discussion in the energy company about what should be built, should be built, should be built, has been going on since march , since march everyone they said that we are building the ministry of defense as soon as possible, it is working, we already know how to build it.

helped energy workers to plan these protective buildings, the whole institute was working, they did a sensible thing, let's build quickly, why didn't this happen, well, honestly, i can't explain for myself, okay, you can't, and fine, but you can explain what the state of affairs is in russian energy, because it is stronger than ever, say people who like putin, and people who don't like putin very much, or vice versa... energy as part of the overall economy of russia is weaker than ever. and what do you say, mr. oleksandr? i will be in the middle because, on the one hand , the modernization plan in russia has failed of the power system, which was developed and started to be implemented since the mid-2000s. it was designed for 25 years. and now we can state that it has failed.

it already exists in many regions of russia. power supply problems, blackouts happen, long-term outages happen, and this is also a reality, but on the other hand, to talk about some kind of global collapse and the complete collapse or inoperability of the system would be untrue, it still has significant reserves of strength, another matter , that without importing equipment they feel very well it's uncomfortable and they really can't modernize or significantly update their power plants. and these conversations that i hear and read from russians, that there are wells where they want to get oil, 90% water flows there, 10% oil, well, in order to extract oil , a lot of water is pumped there, such a technology, and now there is already there are very few such mines where there is actually oil, and every year they will reduce

their ability to... produce oil, is it true? it's true, both in gas and in oil , their production is decreasing, and in fact, to before the full-scale invasion began, before the great war began, russia was completely reliant on western technology for development, extraction and oil and gas, and most of the companies, i can't say all, unfortunately, because they still remain certain companies that help russia extract on... and extract western gas through certain pipelines there, through certain chinese subsidiaries and so on and so on, but they help, but nevertheless this help is not enough for them, they reduce production and they are not capable themselves to get a technological level so as not to reduce production, so as not to...