demographic problems, this approach should include education and the return of ukrainians abroad. we cannot afford to lose a whole generation of ukrainians. the time to act is now. if you agree that this issue needs to be addressed immediately, please share this video. subscribe to the channel to learn new investigations, stories, initiatives, because together we can force the authorities to return attention to the future of our children. and for more details about... our refugees studying abroad, see link, together we will win. greetings, friends, vitaly portnikov is with you and the politclub program is on the air on the espresso tv channel. today we will be with our guests, igor simiolos, director of the center for near eastern studies, i congratulate mr. igor, and a diplomat, expert, former ambassador.

of the united states by valery chalom, welcome, mr. valery, to discuss this disposition, which i constantly try to defend as the main thesis, i would say the 21st century, referring, by the way, as a rule, to an article written by a former speaker of the house of representatives of the american congress, an experienced american politician, nancy peleus, when her plane arrived in taiwan, she said that we are witnessing the struggle of democracy and dictatorships, and by and large... this is what defines the moment that the world is experiencing now, but the world is experiencing more than just some kind of struggle between democracy and dictatorship, their rivalry on a global scale, the world is still going through two wars at the same time, which are essentially part of this, i would say, the clash of democracy and dictatorship, because the same players, one can say, in both cases, so to speak, we can feel the iranian shaheds even during our broadcast today, i hope it won't happen, but when they announce... about

a drone attack, it could be iranian-made drones, and at the same time iranian ballistic missiles appear in the sky over israel, russia supports the same organizations that israel is in the middle east conflict, fights with ukraine with the help of tamiran and north korea, etc., so we are talking about the same countries, and here is an interesting point, it seems to me that worth to discuss, this is the long-term nature of these conflicts, tomorrow is the anniversary of the attack by hamas on israel, and i am very... i remember that when this anniversary was, most experts, not you, i will say right away, said that it continues, well, two or three weeks, well, two or three months, well, how many conflicts in the middle east, when i said that i was very worried that this war would divert attention from the ukrainian war, my interlocutors in kyiv said, well, why are you worried, well, it's for a couple of weeks, then they'll come to an agreement, exchange hostages for terrorists, as it's always been on the other side and will be in the center again. attention: the war

in ukraine, for 360 5 days there is a war in the middle east and soon there will be a thousand-day war between russia and ukraine, a big war, although when it started, you also remember, they said that it would last for two or three weeks, for a few months, that it will end in some kind of battle, that putin sees that he cannot take ukraine, then he will stop somewhere at some kind of truce, well, you see everything that we are watching, and let's try to understand why... this longevity, let's you, mr. valery, tell about the duration of the russian-ukrainian war, and you explain to us why the war in the middle east is so long this time, please, for a start, allow me to congratulate everyone who is currently holding the defense, and the teachers, by the way, on territorial defense day we taught correctly, i think, to look at things more deeply, so i will try in your style, mr. vitali. somewhere to expand this

thesis, the struggle between bureaucracy, i say democracy and authoritarianism, well, if everything was so simple that it has started now, this struggle, it didn't start now, yes, it is already going on, now we have discussed more than once this struggle of identities, who is fighting for what, for which, that is, the struggle went on different fronts, in different directions, what we are facing now, it seems to me, it seems to me. .. what we are faced with is simply the way the dispute goes , climate change, what is this trend, or is it a periodic fluctuation of the weather, yes, i think it is something like there are economic crises, there are crises of world development, that is, it is a crisis, it is protracted , obviously now international law has been established, well in the best case, the right does not apply to standby forces, those who can use them, try to use them, begin to use them. or from our

direct enemies, russia and putin, well, the middle east is also the same, i also see that they are trying to take advantage of this pause, they are obviously looking for it, well, the first thing is necessary. understand, it is not really for one year and maybe not for 10 years, that is, this transition to some system, rules, a new vision, it will take time, as you can see, but now from the side of china, from the part of this, which took advantage of the decline in the influence of the us, relatively speaking, of its partners, and this decline and it was predicted with the same united states for a long time, they want to build differently. someone is a multipolar world, they think so, russia, india, there, but china wants to build a bipolar world, where there is china, and its allies, are there suzerains or, more precisely, those who go, well, not partners, i

would like them so did not call partners, a coalition of countries there led by china, and there is the united states, so far, as from the point of view of china, which leads another group, because, apparently, the cold war, where it was in the format of the soviet union. and the united states, she showed that it is still for those who live and who passed that period, it is an even clearer system, two large nuclear blocs, and there are countries that maneuver between them, but no one, they do not come up with anything else, they restore , are restoring such a big bipolar world, and the process is going on, everyone is looking for their place in this world, well, that's simplified, if we talk about the struggle that is a component in this situation. there are democracies, authoritarian regimes, well, it seems so at first glance, the division, yes, but this division is not very clear. we can name among the countries of the west, the west, conditional, yes, we can call the countries authoritarian, and we can also call them democratic from the side of the new

forming coalition, only now the understanding of what is democracy, authoritarianism, what is the limit of the use of force, what are the rules, it is all already blurred, then... then everything is scattered, therefore - first, three such conclusions: the beginning of the period of warriors, where i think that it will not do without regional warriors, now regional warriors, what is most interesting, there are no more, well, that is, already on the near east is on the brink of a regional war, and somewhere halfway there europe before that, that is, there will be regional wars, where will they take place, in which part of the world, it is difficult to say whether it will pass? it has already moved to the global level in some ways, for example, the cyber sphere, there is already full -scale involvement, at least 15 countries are at war at the global level of cyber war, or will it be you, but we will see it just on the territories, i don’t know, but i know for sure , that

the period of warriors is just beginning, and it is our great tragedy that putin, with his little strategic skill, started a... war in europe, i.e., although in theory it could to arise such, such a large-scale these years where, well, it could have arisen between india, pakistan, it could have arisen in africa, and there, by the way, there are also such places, that is, to narrow it down to the struggle between democracy and authoritarianism, it would be very narrowly, to identity, these are certain regions, so this is just a period, humanity has not figured out how to live in a different way, it always goes through... from a crisis, that is, we are somewhere at the very beginning of a great geopolitical crisis, conflicts, warriors who will last, it is unknown, i cannot predict how long, and now the main thing is the final question is whether it is possible to return it, that is, put it all back in the box, this is

a key question, because what do the countries of the west say, and we, by the way, let's return international law, international rules, return everything to the way it was, this is the key question, are there other... scenarios, is it possible to return the system or not, has it already gone so far that we will not go back, ukraine just needs to adapt, if we are talking about us, adapt to this system, what does it mean in in a world dominated by the right, the only way to survive is to be strong and be strong, well, how sometimes in the animal world you survive, or santas, or you unite with others, and then, relatively speaking, wolves... can also overcome a bear, in another way, and one wolf can't beat a bear, well, that's it here is the general vision, this also applies to the middle east, that it is necessary to overcome someone, someone, someone, is there any such and such situation in the middle east in principle, it is not new, that is, unlike europe, these are all

outbreaks of violence, or within the framework of the arab of the israeli conflict or within the contradictions of the confrontation between the shiites and sunnis or actually these revolutionary trends, yes, which were led and, let's say, captured, captured by muslim brothers in the 10s, or the same islamic revolution. they testify to the fact that in fact the middle east is very dynamic, and if you look at this picture, you can see how seriously it has changed even in 1979, and how much circumstances, people, ideas, ideas, and many other things have changed , what happened, why, why such a long war, well, definitely from... i don't have it, but i can assume that netanyahu's goals in this war

somewhat different than, say, the release of the hostages, that is, the hostages, of course, they remain one of the key goals, it is declared, it is manifested, well, it is obvious that the main goal for netanyahu himself is not only the release of the hostages, that is, they have the main goal - this is the destruction of the capabilities of hamas, but not only hamas and not so much hamas. i, but this is a series of events that should lead to the strategic defeat of iran, i do not know how prepared they were and saw this situation in which they found themselves after a year of war, when they are about to strike on iran and accordingly launch a new wave of escalation, and here i can only say that allen pinchas, a well-known israeli... commentator, analyst, in haretz, he very correctly wrote that if you think you

are in control of the escalation, then you you don't control it, and the problem is that this, this paste from the tube that valeriy, mr. valeriy said, like a chest that can be pushed in, it's already been squeezed out, and it's clear that escalation is not inevitable, the question is again , who will be on which side and how quickly this issue can be resolved. in case with the gaza strip, i think the circumstances were such that israel got into a kind of trap of a ground operation, and when the ground operation first started, it was clear that it was going to be long, it could not be short, given that the israelis were protecting their people, military, and in assaults, densely populated cities, let's say, they could ... have great losses, that's why this story stretched, on the other hand, during the whole time of this war, israel

could have the opportunity to stop it and put an end to the issue of hostages and everything else is already several times, but he did not do it, because from the point of view of netanyahu and the right of the israeli government - this is their defeat, and this is already contrary to public opinion. because public opinion, if you look at the polls, it is militant, that is, people demand revenge, and this is unanimous about netanyahu's words, about the sword that we raised and will not lower and will fight, that is, now any attempt there, let's say by some miracle, natanya says, we are all stopping the war, we are stopping the conflict, we are signing a new agreement, neither his allies will understand him, nor his... even political opponents, well, we still need to understand, you expressed such general considerations about

the whole situation that has developed in the world, but still we need to understand why, in principle, there is no such thing, you know, the instinct to stop at the right moment, but russia has been waging this war against ukraine for eight years, such a half-war, half- destabilization, which, in its opinion, could lead there to the fact that sooner or later it is possible... to establish control over a much larger, i would say part of it ukrainian society, than, than it is happening now, when almost all ukrainians there live under these bombs and rockets, well, in the middle east, hamas too, in principle, if we remember hamas and hezbollah, they could terrorize israel for a long time with these constant rocket attacks, without bringing the matter to the very possibilities of attacking gas and taking the way we see it, just an apocalyptic spectacle, and the israeli army has never had a political... i would say, the ability to act like this, now no one does not stop, it is very simple, it is very easy to explain, from the point of view, if we think

in terms of the coordinates of the world where we lived not so long ago, and i will remind you that when such a situation was created, someone attacked from countries, well this and in the middle east, we saw attempts by the same iraq, in kuwait, to seize kuwait, that is, then a coalition was created, there were rules in the un, there is a un charter. everyone thought that it would be fulfilled. a coalition, what is a coalition, it immediately created a certain group of countries that could act in the military plan, the embargo was applied there against iran. was done, i.e. embargo at once, north korea at once, the same story, everyone united, and even countries like russia and china, they in principle, criticizing such approaches, not allowing the us to gain more weight than they could, they everyone equally participated in this, somewhere there they did not have time to, say, stop the coalition, well, as they say, there

was no vote, but it was mainly a collective action, well, within the framework of the whole world, now it is clearly visible that... some countries simply refused follow these rules, first of all this is russia, china, that is, china, despite the fact that it is also covered by some rules, do you think china is there too, china for sure, well china, it says one thing, like in the initiative, for example, there are peace initiatives that they tried to sell, as a peace initiative, in fact, they are creating an anti-american coalition, in fact, that is, but they did not manage to... do everything, because the simple question is how to simultaneously support the sovereignty of ukraine there, well, it is sovereignty and not territorial integrity, and at the same time propose to divide ukraine is simply new a new period, why did it become possible, because some of the countries went to play in this way, and the other part no longer has the power it had

before, this is the main thing, the usa and its allies, europe, definitely do not have such power, why is it an illusion . for today, well, there was an illusion, and this illusion precisely led to the fact that hamas carried out this operation, and in israel there was an illusion when, well, the illusions of hamas, when they planned this operation, they assumed that the year of the reign netanyahu, an attempt to undermine the supreme court, rich and traditional democratic values, and the riots that took place. israel and clear signals, including public signals from representatives of israel's special services, law enforcement agencies, said that what is happening in israel undermines our security and creates opportunities for our enemies, this was said publicly, and it created an illusion , that israel is weak, and to a certain extent it was so,

that israel was able, as they say, to cower, is another matter, but as of that, as of... last year, yes, there were conflicts even with reservists, and the same reservists who refused to even go to the army, but now they are participating there, a lot has been written about it, that they participated in the attacks on the bunker, they fucked up, but that was the case, they were a year ago, and a little more therefore, they refused to participate in any maneuvers and any training, well, an illusion, yes, there was an illusion in relation to, well, an illusion. i don't think, by the way, that, for example, in the western part of europe, it was putin's illusion, that is, he always, if we talk about the conflict already, well the russian-ukrainian war, by the way, i would very much like it to be called the russian-ukrainian war, and not the war in ukraine, as the president of ukraine did, unfortunately, after meeting with the president of the us presidential candidate, saying that this in ukraine, well, here you have to

follow, well, i call president zelenskyy different names and, as a rule, correctly, but very often it is called a war in ukraine, which is absolutely wrong, it is a war in europe, obviously, that is, russia also saw that with the point of view of the leadership of russia, europe is weak, the usa is also weakened, and in principle this became one of the factors, in reality, of the factors, and ukraine is weakened, it is also them, well, whether it is an illusion or not, history will decide for us whether they decide, but such a... factor influenced , that is , the enemy's weakness factor has a very serious effect on the one who wants to exert force pressure, in russia it works very well, it can be shown every time, so maybe it's an illusion, maybe it's real facts, but look, there's a fact, there's no way a million projectiles to be produced for ukraine at the initiative of the czech republic,

north korea put, well, according to the data provided by the united states, 3 million, 3 million, that is... there were countries that lived in the system of preparing for war, like north korea, and iran, and iran, and israel, by the way, well, haihor will tell you, but here it is clearer here that europe did not live in a state of war, yes, that is, for sure, and they tried, and we did not live in a state of preparation for war, even after all the events of 2014, until the end, i would didn't say so, i think that somewhere starting from... from after the 15th and 16th, otherwise we didn't, well, we didn't live like that, we didn't have state of war, we had a clear, clear doctrine of our military and... and strategic intention, we had a strategic opponent of russia in 2006, only since 2006, yanukovych came, as he was told, and

yezhel, the minister of defense, was told , that you have a plan to go to war with russia, they said, yezhel said, tear it all up so that i don't hear, and don't even show all this to yanukovych, that is, but it already disappeared then, and now it has reappeared 14- th year, some time for promotion and rockets. the program, the program of bohdana's hawk program, it was launched, why not, well, we were no longer in a state of war, by the way, i will remind you that at that time people reacted very negatively to the very introduction of partial martial law, we wanted to avoid the internal altogether, the word war, they did not want to let it in, and this is natural, no one wants to, but as a result of the weakness of societies, those... who, well, first of all, acted as we say, were in some system of understanding coordinates, preparation, time, secondly, i have accumulated something, it is still necessary to understand that

there, i don't know, in the near east, too rockets must be stockpiled, they must be prepared, it cannot be done immediately, that is why hamas also stockpiled them there, supplied them, that is, and these countries received them, that is why it is necessary to understand where the signal that sounded was. if they have, why can they go forward? i think it consists of three parts: xizenping's statement at the chinese party congress, where he said for the first time in a while that he is staying on, and his task of expansion is basically, well, as the chinese say, take back the lands, well, something like that , yes, there are lands here to return taiwan, in what way they still they don't say, it's possible, it's possible for the military, they already allow in... the military, dengping gave the signal that china is entering the arena of expansion, which , to be honest, is not very natural for china, they heard it, the rest of the usa withdrew from

afghanistan, also a moment , which, i think, is very serious, just what many of the military, the united states, were against, the agreement was signed, not here anymore, and the americans dragged it out as much as possible, trump signed it. the weather in, if i am not mistaken, in january of the 20th year, and the americans were pulling, in may they were supposed to leave, according to the agreement, the americans dragged it out until september, until august, understanding the circumstances in which they would find themselves, and they still got there, you remember, right away the main thing is not even that, the main thing is this picture, when people ran and fell by plane, and they were not picked up by the plane, saigon is all different. it looks like they were fleeing vietnam, the americans, from the roof, you remember, from the roof they took the embassies, they took the people, and that they took everyone, no, a lot of people in vietnam, after that, the end of

such a war in vietnam , when, well, for various reasons i will not go into details, but also many generals then said that this was a mistake, that there was a possibility of victory, as a result of which political decisions ended the results of military conflicts incorrectly. for these countries, and here i also think that it is somehow strange, the united states has demonstrated a whole series of steps that have shown its weakness, from the point of view of military actions there, although each of the candidates now talks about the power of the united states, military, but still, you understand, it is not just displayed in warehouses, and here is the third, and here is the third moment, people somehow passed peacefully for several decades without of this horror of nuclear threats. well, it hasn't been so terrible since the early 90s, yes, we were in the 90s, when this confrontation took place, by the way, it's 100 years today for jimmy carter, exactly

today, yes, or yesterday, well, sometime yesterday, yesterday it was 100 years ago for the president of the united states, who met with brezhnev at that time, can you imagine what a period was, and then we were just coming out of this arms race, and that is... the process began, and then everyone returned and suddenly putin unleashed his we will do everything there with these, with our posipaks, we will destroy washington, by the way, nuclear weapons, here they suddenly remembered, again, again, wait, israel has nuclear weapons, israel clearly, well, i touch on it here, because it is important for further understanding, israel nuclear weapons, israel has these opportunities already. in a different version than in the same period there, by the way, today is the 51st year of the start of the doomsday war, that is, the 73rd year, and that is why it was

october 7. all the same, yes, that is, this is all, this is all, we remember what happened in those times, and then kem david, and then periods of long time discharge, that's all, this historical cycle ended when it ended, here everyone will have their opinion, there's a year, but it's over already, you can't close this pandora's box, and this tube, maybe on september 11 , it ended when the towers were hit, blasphemy in some countries differently, for example, it seems to me, but now the more i think, the more i think, the more i am convinced that, for example, in israel, that is, israel and palestine, a peaceful, peaceful process, it will, by and large, end with the killing of shah karabin , well, the first intifada, maybe even no-no, the first the intifada just led to the peace process, and actually it coincides with a whole

series there. factors, and israel finds itself under the blows of hezbollah, the same hezbollah and the intifada on the west bank and in the gaza strip, and then the decision is made to go to the oslo negotiations, and actually i think that by and large the full stop was put in rabin’s bust, but well then there were attempts, there were attempts to restore peace. and now we see that he died for sure, and this was just the first, the first step, here is the question, i still want to finish it with nuclear weapons, that is, i was the regime of general understanding is non-proliferation, there are countries that got nuclear weapons, they pressured others, like ukraine, to get rid of them, and there is a certain group of countries, five are officially declared, that is, three, everyone knows that there are pakistan, india, israel,

well...iran is on the brink, and there are other countries that are on the brink of that, and now the question, that is, all the regimes of this deterrence are collapsing, i think that very unfortunately, very unfortunately, we 're going to witness, be a part of that deployment of the conflict world of use, attempts to use or use of nuclear man-made objects or tactical nuclear weapons, why? because you can't, well, come on, that's my opinion, it's just that people don't understand that it will be right there tomorrow, no, this logic shows that if they don't push the paste back into this tube, then it will be an element of building a new order, because iran, for example, now will not agree to the idea that it does not have the right under these conditions to still

create... its nuclear program, if it can, israel will not agree with the us that iran will have nuclear weapons, so will probably be her if they see that it is almost ready, they will destroy it, well, try to destroy it, well, by the way, there have already been similar threats, there was an attack on a nuclear reactor in iraq, this is not big news either, but this is also a question for you, a question to what extent do you think that as far as it is possible, that iran will go so far... well, in its defense of its position, that it will still dare to demonstrate that it also has a weapon, well, what to call it, that is, well, the containment of some kind of repression, yes, and i think 30 seconds, but maybe, i think so that in in principle and israel, there is every chance that israel can strike now, and there is every chance that iran can demonstrate this, that is, in

principle, they are... equal, equal, well, that will change everything then, and we will be in a different world , now we will take a break for a few minutes and continue our conversation with mr. slovolosov, mr. valery chal, so stay with us, lacal fix fixes reliably, my dentist advised me, it also reduces inflammation of the gums, and the price is good, economical lacaka fix, there is discount. on nephrobam, 20% in pharmacies, plantain, bam and savings. from joint and back pain, i take dr. tice's comfrey ointment. the composition of the ointment contains natural components that suppress pain and inflammation. healthy joints and back allow you to lead an active lifestyle. from pain in joints and muscles, natural german ointment with comfrey helps to eliminate pain, inflammation, stiffness and contains natural ingredients. save when you buy dr. tice's mays with comfrey at.