on february 22nd, when they were deciding on the recognition of the republics of the ldnr at the retreat, and in fact we understood that the issue of starting a war was being decided, and putin needed to show it on tv, putin needed to involve all his entourage in order to make a collective decision, so that always one could say that it was a collective decision, it was not my personal decision, now he no longer has this reflection, he does not need to try to portray something, everyone already understands everything. that the war is his area of ​​responsibility, and of course, all those who stands behind him. he was already going to fight for three days. at that moment, he tried to use the old approaches, collective, collegial decision-making, and now he cannot lose. the elite may lose the war in ukraine. and what will happen to her? what is this, they will take moscow? no. losing russia is simply not fulfilling putin's goals of capturing ukraine. do you understand? and what does summer lose from this? the whole environment? it doesn't matter whether you are a member of the radbez or an ordinary soldier.

not just deterring the kremlin, but the kremlin's interest in entering the negotiation process. we understand, so america should hurt putin so much that he would be forced. but, as they say, not a fact. yes, we understand that putin failed to achieve the military, military and political goals he set for himself. accordingly, the operational situation on the battlefield has changed. we have entered into a long, bloody war, and...

our prospects are quite, you know, dim, according to your opinion, the plan for victory, putin's reaction and what is called, you know, very different signals, from scholz's hand , well no i would like to list all those people who would like, so to speak, to start a certain negotiation process. you know, i'll tell you this, putin would not have paid any attention to zelensky's victory plan and his discussion, if it weren't for one thing, the kursk region. but if it concerned the front line in ukraine, aid to ukraine and even a strike on the territory of russia, but still without a bridgehead on the territory of the russian federation, two districts in the kursk region, almost 100 km away, where fighting is currently ongoing in an attempt to push the armed forces of ukraine behind borders of the state border, then probably putin would be lenient about it, as he was about the peace formula. before the august

events, before the start of the armed forces operation. he disdainfully, even, i would say, with some ultimate arrogant tone, proposed three conditions that must be fulfilled in order for these negotiations to begin. and everyone understood that these conditions were not feasible. i will remind them, on the eve of the peace summit in lucerne, he said: liberate four regions in the administrative borders, i.e. remove parts from... that is, in fact, about the end of sovereignty of ukraine. let's call a spade a spade. ukraine outside nato and ukraine in nato are two different ukraines. and everyone understands this very well, no one is stupid. but this is where the kursk region happened. and actually, how can he continue to behave as brazenly , taking into account the fact that... you don't know until the end

how long the troops will remain there, which will be lost, or whether units of the armed forces will advance further, and suddenly they will enter the bryansk region, and what if something completely unbelievable will happen, and suddenly, it was not believed before, but now it is a common place, already as for two months, foreign troops have been on the territory of the russian federation, occupying administrative centers, and this is definitely an exciting, irritating factor that affects putin's decision-making. in a sense he has become more careful, much more careful, and in public statements also, if we are not talking about nuclear blackmail, for example, judge for yourself, he says that we do not care what bandits, bandos, some provocateurs from the ssu, what provocateurs are doing , what are you talking about, there is a war, you occupied 20% of the territories of ukraine, so what did you want, this is the way, as he said, we will continue what we were doing on the front line in ukraine itself, at the same time, i believe that the course... the region and the situation there

is the biggest challenge for him in two years of war because the talk that the war would spill over into russia itself, they came true, that's what they are. yes, now, if sooner or later there is a decision to strike deep into the territory of russia, then it is absolutely clear that these strikes may lead to the continuation of the operation, during which the armed forces of ukraine will occupy new territories in russia, move on to kursk or to kurchaatov or to other large cities in the territory of the kursk region. of course, this is an irritating factor, and the victory plan has become not just a slogan, but a kind of threat, because if we are talking only about ukraine, then win, don't win. let you liberate your territory, here you can suffer and the population of the european part of russia can turn out to be an object of war, and not by an episodic pin strike by drones, but by rockets that carry from 200 to 500 kg of explosives, it's okay, and a drone has 50 kg, if

to compare, there are different types of drones, but none the less. it is absolutely obvious that the damage will be many times greater, taking into account the presence of foreign troops on the territory of arref. could putin be afraid of some indignation inside using this situation, surrounded by those who are not happy with him, to get rid of him. for example, the troops of the armed forces of ukraine reached kursk, what then? there are only 50-55 km from the same suzha, not such a big distance, and from kursk to moscow - 500. i am not saying that this will happen, i am just talking about the political influence of this factor, and therefore the victory plan is already perceived in a different way, there is a different feeling that putin catches. understands that in reality everything is not so simple: taking ughledar and pokrovsk will not solve the problem of the kurdish region, it is not an automatic solution, they are not connected, you can capture a few more places before the new year or after it, although for sure there will be a winter break, but this does not mean that you will automatically solve

the problem of the presence of foreign troops on the territory of the russian federation, occupying a large part of them territory, about thousands of square kilometers, that's the problem, but there is another moment, yes, if there really are some or the other... additional tools or additional, so to speak, moments that will interest putin, and he will be able to go into that or another, be it behind-the-scenes, be it through the americans, be it through these or other mediators, such as switzerland, a negotiation or pseudo-negotiation process, well, he cannot just jump out of the war, explaining to the fascist population that, i don’t know, over the years before a full-scale invasion, was fooled with his entire propaganda team... he can tell them: well, you know, we have decided to rethink our attack on ukraine a little bit, let's somehow withdraw the troops from the new subjects of the federation, that is, we understand that this act is illegal, but well this is how they behaved in order to completely cut off all the ways of retreat there, i don’t know there

for patrushev or anyone else who could have conversations with burnson there or with ryshkin, so we understand, and that’s how this is the moment of exit, from the other side . well, putin is ready to play the long game, that is, well, no agreed on nothing, so everything will continue at approximately the same pace of a long, bloody meat grinder. well, this is definitely a dead end, specifically for putin, for the elite, for russia itself, for the population, not a dead end. you know, there is a thesis that putin will sell anything to the population as a victory . not all, still, not all. i am of the opinion that you cannot sell absolutely everything, you cannot depict absolutely everything as a victory, if it is only a concession, a loss, a compromise and so on, that is, he cannot sell everything due to his political position, he proclaimed something completely different, de facto they were going to take kyiv in three days, three days

or a month, it doesn’t matter, now we are talking about the truism that ukraine is generally incapable of resisting and so on, this did not happen, what this proves, about the fact that ukraine... is a full-fledged state that continues to resist, and even if you imagine that there will be no allies, then how will you manage this territory, that you can, you can only with repressions, mass murders of forced ukraine in the form in which it is now a national state, european, to conquer it, there is no other way. putin has nothing to offer ukrainian society to change its attitude to the war, to the authorities, to the union with russia, there is no tool for putin. this is definitely a dead end. yes, it could have been a forced entry into kyiv, the landing of a puppet government, and that would have given some chance, and if there was none, they didn't even think that such a thing was possible. here's the thing: they didn't have a backup plan, putin didn't have a backup plan. actually, eliminating all those

who started this war with him, and patrushev, and shoigu and so on, this is precisely his attitude. well, gerasimov is holding on, i think, until the new year, he will also be replaced, because... it is expected that this peace will be concluded on his terms. of course, putin is looking for peace talks, of course he wants this peace process and an end to the war, because it gives him relief, but he does not yet see or consider another way, because if he makes any compromise, allowing not to release those new subjects of the russian federation, but simply agrees with the sovereignty of ukraine, then this means that the 80% that are controlled by the central government in ukraine are transferring.

no one ever recognizes the occupation of new territories, that is, legally he does not solve this issue, and he has nothing to do with them, what do you think, mark, putin could reach, so we understand that there is a public part, there is a non-public part, and there, well, in the public part, everyone starts talking, well, not everyone, well, but tamlin’s, for example, let’s go for... let’s freeze, we understand that it’s a cry to nowhere, well, but at least it’s there, this story about stopping the war, stopping fire, people will stop dying, we have heard this rhetoric, they will not stop dying, and the war in this sense will not stop, and will continue, this is necessary to create an atmosphere in which ukraine appears to be an opponent of the war, this is necessary to worsen the image of kyiv, that it resists this and thirsts for blood, it is done only for this. for nothing more, in fact, these people are speaking in a tongue-in-cheek way that everyone is ready, but only ukraine is resisting, this is definitely

a deception, a large-scale deception, kremlin intelligence, which cannot be followed, because still once i emphasize, it is directed against ukraine, because it is empty talk, a simple litmus, a simple example of how this can be achieved, very simply: i am sure, i suspect there is insider information that putin has been offered many times to stop mutual shelling. then you stop shelling the territory of ukraine, and ukraine stops shelling the territory of russia without using drones and missiles. moscow always refused, always. here you are fighting on the front line and fighting. let's define a zone, no more than 20-30 km along the front line, but more no strikes on the territory of ukraine, even in kherson, even in khmadita, even in other places. why not agree on this, why not stop destroying the whole country? i agree, that is, what this shows, it shows that he does not want any peace, no

ceasefire, no bloodshed, he does not want. i think that such proposals will be introduced, there is already information that a group of semi-loyal moscow intellectuals is forming, i won’t even name them, everyone knows them, who should repent in european capitals and form a non-governmental position of peace, that’s all is also launched by the kremlin, and the mandate of those people will be, conditionally speaking. are they just, you know, a roving marquee, or are they going to represent someone's specific signature there? absolutely, because abramovych deals with this, he is assigned to deal with this, he pulls these people up, this is specifically done by abramovych and the persons connected with him, that is, it is a series of sharp-looking officials who are connected in this sense, probably surkov has something to do with this, again, they are talking about it, it is similar, because abramovich is engaged in exchanges and... will speak about interactions in turkey with the leadership. istanbul and the grain corridor, so

-called, yes it was. all his, all his. so now it will be pushed through. first, experienced western allies also understand this. to say that washington does not understand this is ridiculous. washington understands everything perfectly, he just does something else. there is an understanding of the situation there. to say that they are naive or stupid there is no, they understand everything. another question is, perhaps, it is beneficial that... the negotiation process was also so that putin did not fall completely. we have talked about this many times. because they are afraid of the chaos, the vacuum, which may arise in connection with the defeat of putin. and it is not clear who will take his place, there is no predicted person. they are probably working on this issue, but they are not ready to take too fast and reactive actions to achieve the result, according to the same plan of victory. because it will lead to chaotic consequences in russia itself. and they will think about it more globally. for a long distance, therefore no one will go to a simple ceasefire, but at the same time they will not give up

interaction and attempts to find a compromise so that this start a peaceful negotiation process. he saw each other in kateri and now stopped due to the beginning of the operation of the armed forces of ukraine in the kursk region at the beginning of august. again, we seem to proceed from this insider information and rumors that the press published. i assume that there could be some consultations in the field, why not, there could be. another question is what are the consequences of this kind of initiative? if this is a public negotiation process, the parameters on which these negotiations will be based should be determined. side as well as international community, proposed a formula for peace: international law, understanding of international security. we all know what it is? respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity of the country and so on. what china, even in its 12 principles last year in 2013, published and declared about the commitment of the first principle to international law, its

recognition and respect, and since the bases are not defined, the dispute continues that where are the red lines so... so to speak , geopolitical realities, the right of force, you understand, are discussing the right of force, and moscow cannot prove its primacy in this matter, it has not demonstrated this right of force, but if kyiv were taken, then of course one could talk about the right of force defeating the force of law. in this case, we are dealing with brazen blackmail, which is not justified. they will reach kyiv in 100 years, that is, if they are still supported, but this is not a fact. and at this time from the kursk region to moscow. will reach the union, i exaggerate, but in reality it is impossible to start negotiations, because two competing principles: the law of force and international law, until they agree on this, it is impossible to sit down at the negotiating table. thank you mark for this extremely interesting and honest conversation with our tv viewers, i want to remind you that mark fegin, a member of the russian opposition to emigration, a former member of the state duma, and

a famous video blogger, was currently working on espresso. thanks mark. thank you. plantain bam and oskad are available in pharmacies. the book of women at war, a joint project of the espresso tv channel and duhi litera publishing house. the book is based on the reports of the presenter of the espresso tv channel khrystyna parubiy. 20 stories, 20 fate, 20 women who defended the country. book, dedication. who chose the path of fighting the enemy in the ranks of the military, women at war, look in bookstores of ukraine, with the support of the konstantin zhivago charity fund, there are discounts on proktobam, 20% in pharmacies psaryznyk, ban and oschad.

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