the effect, the maximization of this effect primarily from rhetoric, from threats, and not from the application itself, because rhetoric is counterproductive, you can always play back, as piaskov did after putin’s speech, there it came to the point that even drones can be considered a reason, how nuclear weapons can be used, then it started, but no, there's no need to exaggerate everything, they didn't understand it that way, and so on, that is, it says that verbal rhetoric itself is a weapon. but the use of nuclear weapons is irreversible, you cannot win back back, and how do you do it, and therefore those experts who believe that this is exclusively a tool of pressure on public opinion, on the west, on the establishment and the elites of the west, and that it does not necessarily throw over the bridge to use, most likely they are right putin is not ready to use nuclear weapons, because the consequences of their use, i repeat, will be irreversible. question: do

these threats and this nuclear blackmail make an impression on the west, if they did not provide the opportunity to use it for strikes deep into russia, then it means some kind of effect it has, it certainly has some significance in the decision-making process of washington and its allies. another issue is that the domestic political situation in the united states itself is superimposed here, after all, there is an election campaign going on there. democrats are fighting republicans, candidates trump and kamala are fighting. it has yet to be implemented, so by november 5, by the day of the elections, by the results of the elections in the usa, this factor will probably be decisive in the issue of giving ukraine the right to use western means to strike deep into the territory of russia, why, because they do not want built-in situation, they are afraid that trump will come, and not only because the democrats will simply lose to trump, because the strategy will also change.

first of all, to the biden administration, to biden himself. after all, we are talking about the fact that this is support that is institutionalized, declared and implemented, well, as they can, it will change under trump. already now, based on his public statements. and what else should it come from, which should be covered. precisely zelensky's statement is quite fair, because he said: listen, trump has programs no, but really, what is it, here trump himself answers, everything has its own time, at one time you and i honestly talked about the fact that a full-scale invasion was being prepared, you know, there is no, we did not wrap it all in a piece of paper, we did not tell.

about what you think and the economy will win, that is, putin's body language, it is quite telling, his body language, yes, and putin's hysteria, it occurs directly on the faces of those, his supporters, who sat in this ratbez, and here they not even a fly flew by, everyone was sitting like that, yes, yes, yes, you know, you you know, during these 2.5 years of the war, its course, its intermediate results, kyiv in three days did not... after all, it changed, the war changed it, that is, now it is more personified, it is totalitarian, this finally took shape in it despite what some signs show as an authoritarian, rigid dictatorial regime, but still there are totalitarian elements. and imagine now that in putin's entourage there may be at least some shred of doubt. it is impossible,

inadmissible, on the one hand, and then, as we have already seen from the type of such systems, the harder you strengthen a system like this, for example, stalin did, you try to copy any risks associated with threats to your system, that is, you remove the most loyal, shoot and imprison the most loyal. putin has no way out, the elites have a way out, they can hide, then pretend that they are not guilty of anything. and to whom will putin shift responsibility from himself, to whom? putin has no way out, the elites have, even a certain bortnikov has a way out, so he may not be hanged, he will show a proof of residence,

do you know if there is a third zimbabwean passport yes they may have an interesting logic. certificates, he has no chance, because for putin this is a fundamental, unavoidable, fatal situation, for which he has to go to the bank, but for the elite it is not a move to the bank, the elite can jump off all this, i am retired, i am in the garden , i'm sorry, i didn't make the decision about the war, putin made it. that is why you mentioned the events of february 22, when they at the security council decided on the recognition of the republics of the ldpr, and in fact we understood that the issue of starting a war was being decided, and putin needed it to show on tv, putin needed to involve his entire entourage in order to make

a collective decision, so that it could always be said that it was a collective decision, it was not my personal decision, now he no longer has this reflection, he does not need to try to portray something. everyone already understands that the war is his area of ​​responsibility, and of course, all those who stand behind him. he was already going to fight for three days. at that moment, he tried to use the old approaches, collective, collegial decision-making, but now he cannot to lose the elite may lose the war in ukraine, but what will happen to it, and what, will they take moscow? no, losing russia is simply not fulfilling putin's goals of capturing ukraine. do you understand? and what does summer lose from this, the whole environment? does it matter if you are a member? bezu or an ordinary employee of some district administration, well, he doesn’t lose anything, he stays where he was, works and does what he used to do, but putin loses everything, you see, that’s mark, the goals of the war and the goals of putin, that’s what i discussed with his

american acquaintances the situation with the plan zelensky's victory and so on, well, they rated it so, they say, in general, the idea is not bad, the key story... where there will be elements not just of deterring the kremlin, but of the kremlin's interest in entering the negotiation process, we understand, so america must hurt putin so much, that he would be forced, but, as they say, not a fact. yes, we understand that putin did not manage to achieve the military goals, military-political goals that he set for himself, accordingly, the operational situation on the battlefield has changed, we have come a long way. war, so are our prospects quite, you know, vague, accordingly, in your opinion, the victory plan, putin's reaction and what is called, you know, very different signals, there is one from scholz's head, well, i don't want to list all those people who would like, so to speak, start a certain negotiation

process. you know, i'll tell you this, you know, i 'll tell you this, putin would not have paid any attention to zelensky's victory plan and his discussion, debate, if only for one thing, but... if it concerned the front line in ukraine, aid to ukraine and even a blow to the territory of russia, but still without a bridgehead on the territory of the russian federation. two districts in the kursk region, almost 1,000 square kilometers, where battles are currently ongoing in an attempt to push the armed forces of ukraine beyond the state border. perhaps putin would take a lenient approach to this, as he did to... the august events, to the start of the armed forces operation. he contemptuously, even, i would say, with some kind of ultimatum, arrogant tone, proposed three conditions that must be fulfilled in order for these negotiations to begin. and everyone understood

that these conditions were not fulfilled. i will remind them on the eve of the peace summit in lucerne, he said: liberate four oblasts in the administrative borders, i.e. withdraw parts of the armed forces from there, cancel all sanctions, and first, from the start of the negotiations, accept the commitment of ukraine's non-aligned status, i.e., in fact, the end of sovereignty ukraine, let's call a spade a spade, ukraine outside nato and ukraine in nato are two different ukraines, and everyone understands this perfectly well, no one is stupid, but here kursk oblast happened, and actually, how can he continue conduct just as brazenly. taking into account the fact that you do not fully know how long the troops that will be lost will remain there, whether units of the armed forces will advance further, and suddenly they will still enter the bryansk region, and that something completely incredible will happen, and suddenly, earlier in i couldn't believe it, but now it's a common place, foreign

troops have been on the territory of the russian federation for two months now, occupying administrative centers, and this is definitely an exciting, annoying factor that affects acceptance... in some sense he has become more careful, much more careful, and in public statements also, if we are not talking about nuclear blackmail, for example, judge for yourself, he says that we ... it does not matter what bandits, bandos, some provocateurs from the ssu, what provocateurs are doing , what are you talking about, there is a war, you occupied 20% of the territory of ukraine, so what did you want, this is the way, as he said, we will continue what we did on the front line in ukraine itself, at the same time, i believe that the kursk region and the situation there, this is the biggest challenge for him in two years war because the talk that the war would spill over into russia itself, they came true. here they are, yes, now, if sooner or later there is a decision to strike deep into

the territory of russia, then it is absolutely clear that these strikes may lead to the continuation of the operation, during which the armed forces of ukraine will occupy new territories in russia, move further, to kursk or to kurchatov or to other large cities in the kursk region. of course, this is an annoying factor and the victory plan has become not just a slogan, but a kind of threat, because if it is only about... russia may become an object of war, and not an episodic, pin strike by drones, but by missiles carrying from 200 to 500 kg of explosives, it’s okay, and a 50 kg drone, if you compare, there are different types of drones, but nevertheless, it is absolutely obvious that the damage will be many times greater taking into account the presence of foreign eyelashes. in the territory of arref, could putin be afraid of some outrage inside using this situation surrounded by those

who are not happy with him to get rid of him. for example, troops reached kursk armed forces of ukraine, what then? there are only 555 km from the same suzha, not such a big distance, but from kursk to moscow 500. i am not saying that this will happen, i am just talking about the political influence of this factor, and therefore the victory plan is already perceived differently. which putin catches and understands that in reality not everything is so simple. the fact that you take ugledar and pokrovsk will not solve the problem of the kurdish region. this is not an automatic solution, they are not related. you can capture a few more places before or after the new year, although there will probably be a winter break, but this does not mean that you will automatically solve the problem of the presence of foreign troops on the territory of the russian federation, their occupation of a large part of the territory of about 100 km. that's the problem. but there is another moment, yes, if... indeed, there will be certain additional tools or additional, so to speak, moments that

will interest putin, and he will be able to get into one or another, be it behind the scenes, be it through the americans, be it there through these or other countries, mediators, such as switzerland, a negotiation or pseudo-negotiation process, well, he cannot just jump out of the war, after explaining to the fascist population, which, i don't know, for years before the full-scale invasion was fooled by all his... propagandistic stuff, he cannot say to them: well, you know, here we have decided to rethink our attack on ukraine a little bit, let 's somehow withdraw the troops from the new subjects of the federation, i.e. well, we understand that this act is illegal, but they behaved like this in order to completely cut off all the ways of retreat, i don't know if it was for patrushev or someone else who could have conversations with bjorns there or or ryshkin, yes we understand, yes, and how this moment... from the other side, we understand that putin is ready to play for a long time, that is, we have not

agreed on anything, which means that everything will continue at approximately the same pace for a long, bloody meat grinders, well, this is a dead end, well, this is definitely a dead end, specifically for putin, for the elite, for russia itself, for the population, not a dead end, you know, there is such a thesis that putin, as a victory, will sell anything to the population , not all. after all , not everything, so i adhere to the opinion that absolutely everything cannot be sold, absolutely everything is not you will portray it as a victory, if it is only a concession, a loss, a compromise and so on, that is, he cannot sell everything due to his political position, he proclaimed something completely different, de facto they were going to take kyiv in three days, three days or a month, it does not matter, now we are talking about the truism that ukraine is not capable of resisting at all and so on, this did not happen, what is this about... it shows that ukraine is a full-fledged state that will continue to resist, and even if you imagine that there will be no allies, then how will you

manage this territory, what you can, you can only by repressions, mass murders will i force ukraine in the form in which it is now, a national state, a european one, to subdue it, there is no other way. putin has nothing to offer ukrainian society to change its attitude to the war, to the government, to the alliance with russia, none. tool for putin, this is definitely a dead end, so it could be a forced entry into kyiv, the installation of a puppet government, and that would give some kind of chance, and if it doesn't exist, they don't even think about it. what is possible, that's the point: they didn't have a backup plan, putin didn't have a backup plan, in fact, eliminating all those who started this war with him, and patrushev, and shoigu and so on, this is precisely his attitude, and gerasimov, i think, sticks to the new year, it will also be changed, because the symbol of defeat, failure in ukraine must be visualized. for putin, this is a dead end, and it will

continue for some time until some important valley occurs. event to resist and insist that this peace be concluded on his terms. of course, putin is looking for peaceful people negotiations, of course, he wants this peace process and the end of the war, because it gives him relief, but he does not yet see and does not consider another way, because if he makes any compromise, allowing not to release those new subjects of the russian federation, and simply agree with the sovereignty of ukraine, it means that the 80% that are controlled by the central government. he lost to ukraine then, you know? because, of course, no one ever recognizes the occupation of new territories, that is, legally he does not solve this issue, and he has nothing to do with them what, in your opinion, mark, could putin get to, so we understand that there is a public

part, there is a part that is not public, and there, well, in the public part, everyone starts talking, well, not everyone, well, but tamlin's for example. there, let's freeze, let's freeze, we understand that it's, well, a cry to nowhere, well, but at least it's there, this story about stopping the war, ceasing the fire, people will stop dying, we've heard that rhetoric, they won't stop dying, and the war in this sense will not stop, and will continue, it is necessary to create an atmosphere in which ukraine appears to be an opponent of the war, it is necessary to worsen the image of kyiv, that it resists it and craves blood. it is done only for this, for nothing else. as a matter of fact, even these people with a feedlot say that everyone is ready, but only ukraine is resisting. this is definitely a deception, a large-scale deception, kremlin intelligence, which cannot be followed, because i emphasize once again, it is directed against ukraine, because it is empty talk. a simple litmus test, a simple example of how this can be

achieved, very simply. i'm sure, i suspect, there is inside information that putin was offered many times to stop. moscow has always refused, always, here you are fighting on the front line and fighting, let's define a zone, no more than 20-30 km along the front line, but no more strikes on the territory of ukraine, even in kherson, even in khmadita, even in other places, why not agree on this, why not stop destroying these? putin no longer agrees, that is, what does this indicate? this shows that he doesn't want any peace, he doesn't want any ceasefire, he doesn't want an end to bloodshed. i think that such proposals will be introduced. there already is information that a group of semi-loyal moscow intellectuals is forming. i will not even name them, everyone knows them, who should repent in european capitals and form a non-governmental

position of peace. all this is also initiated by the kremlin. are they going to be, relatively speaking, just, you know, a roving marquee, or are they going to represent someone's specific signature there? certainly, because abramovich deals with this, he is assigned to deal with this, he pulls these people in, this is specifically done by abramovich and the persons connected with him, that is, it is a number of harsh officials who in this sense connected, probably surkov has something to do with it, again, they are talking about it, it is similar, because.

the issue is possible and profitable for the negotiation process to take place and for putin not to fall completely, we have talked about this many times, because they are afraid of chaos, a vacuum that may arise in connection with the defeat of putin, and it is not clear who will take his place , there is no projected person. they are probably working on this issue, but they are not ready to take too fast and reactive actions to achieve the result, according to the same plan of victory, because it will lead to chaotic consequences in russia itself, and they will think about it more globally for a long distance, so no one will go to a simple ceasefire, but at the same time they will not give up interaction and attempts to find a compromise so that this peaceful negotiation process ... due to the beginning of the operation of the armed forces of ukraine in the kursk region at the beginning of august. again, we seem to proceed from this

insider information and rumors that the press published. i assume there may have been some consultation in qatar? why not, they could be. another question is what the consequences are this kind of initiative? if this is a public negotiation process, then parameters must be defined, on which basis these will be based. talks. the ukrainian side, like the international community, proposed a formula for peace: international law, understanding of international security. we all know what that is. respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity of the country and so on. what china, even in its 12 principles last year, in 2013, published and declared, regarding the commitment of the first principle to international law, its recognition and respect. and since the bases are not defined, the dispute continues about what... where are the red lines, so to speak, geopolitical realities, the right of force, you understand, the right of force is being discussed, and moscow cannot prove its primacy in this matter, it does not demonstrated this

right of force, but if kyiv were taken, then of course one could talk about the right of force defeating the force of law, in this case we are dealing with brazen blackmail, which is not justified, they will reach kyiv in 100 years, that is, if they will still contribute, but this is not a fact, at this time the armed forces of kursk region will reach moscow. i am exaggerating, but in reality it is impossible to start negotiations, because two principles compete: the law of force and international law. until they agree on this, it is impossible to sit down at the negotiating table. thank you mark, for this extremely interesting and honest conversation, i want to remind our tv viewers that mark fegin, a figure of the russian opposition in exile, a former member of the state duma, and a famous video blogger, was currently working on espresso. thanks mark. thank you.

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, lukasz adamsky, deputy director of the myrushevsky center, expert on polish-ukrainian cooperation, polish historian, will work on espresso. welcome, mr. lukasz, to espresso. good day. well, an extremely irritating, difficult question. of exhumations in volyn, we understand how big it is this issue has gained political, public, media, and in general, the discussion has moved into the ethical plane, so we understand that now there are signals that this case may be resolved in the coming months. so, your assessment of the current current situation? it seems to me that there is a real chance that the case will be resolved within a few months. ma budi taki optimism otrymajemo, skazemo in the next weeks, domeio w ukraine wszy rozumiejuć, wszy w úriadzie. that

november 1 is very important for poles the date is the all saints' day, and if this case is not resolved by november 1 , it will come out with greater intensity, but it also seems to me that in ukraine, if i look at the ukrainian language like this, let's say a discus, so what are the comments, here and there now there is a confrontation between two camps, such that i believe that it is necessary to go... to a certain compromise, and the position that ukraine has occupied, occupied, occupied, that is, that it will agree to the exhumation of the victims of the ukrainian insurgent army and, rather, of other conflicts that took place on the territory of modern ukraine in in the past, only when the table above the monastery will be restored in poland in such a form that it was almost destroyed.

moment, you mentioned the poles who died or were killed in volyn, but we understand that ukrainians were also killed, and if we are talking about exhumation, well, we understand that this story cannot be divided when we talk about technical points, exhumation , a certain joint polish-ukrainian institution that would deal with exhumations, so that there would be no later complaints or accusations, for example, from the ukrainian side, that this is how the poles worked without us from... from whom, that, for example, ukrainian exhumers worked in certain areas. in general, what is the prospect of, well, because this is not a question for historians, this is a question for the relevant authorities, who will in the proper way, according to the proper procedure, study the remains or the remains of human bodies, just like that, and exactly, i would say, relations between the ukrainian

institute.