united states 3 million 3 million. that is, there were countries that lived in a system of preparation for war, like north korea. and iran, and iran, and, by the way, israel, well, here he will tell, but here we can see it more clearly. europe did not live in a state of war, yes, that is, for sure. and they tried, and we did not live in a state of preparation for war, even after all the events of 2014, until the end. i would not say so, i think that starting somewhere after the 15th and 16th, otherwise we did not, well, we did not live like this, we are not in a state of war, we had a clearly defined military doctrine, and the plan is strategic, we had a strategic opponent of russia in 2006, only since 2006, yanukovych came, as he was told, and the minister of defense was told that you have a plan... with russia, they said,

he said , tear it all up so that i don't hear, and don't even show all this to yanukovych, that is, but it already disappeared then, now it appeared again in the 14th year, some time for promotion, and the missile program, bohdana's program, hawks of his stugna program, it was launched, if not, well, we were already out of it during the state of war, by the way, i will remind you that then people reacted very negatively to the introduction itself. part of the martial law, we wanted to avoid the word war at all internally, we didn't want to let it into us and it's natural, no one wants to, but as a result of the weakness of societies, those who, well, first of all , acted like that, as we say, were in to some system of understanding the coordinates from preparation once, secondly, i have accumulated something, it is also necessary to understand that there, i don’t know, in the near east, too... you need to accumulate them, you need

to prepare, you can’t just start from the wheels, that is why hamas also stocked up there, supplied by iran, that is, yes, and these countries received, from here it is necessary to understand where the signal that sounded, if they had, why they can go forward, i think consists of three parts: the statement of shizenpinna on china's party congress, where he said for the first time in a while that he was staying on. and his task is expansion, in fact, well, as the chinese say, they will return the lands, well, something similar, yes, there are lands here, they will return taiwan, in what way, they do not say yet, it is possible, it is possible with the military, they already allow to the military, this is dengping giving a signal, china is entering the arena of expansion, which, to be honest, is not very natural for china, they heard it, the rest of the usa withdrew from afghanistan, also...

a moment that i think is very serious exactly - against what there were many members of the united states military, the agreement was signed, it is no longer here, and the americans dragged as much as possible, trump signed the agreement in, if i am not mistaken, in january of the 20th year, and the americans dragged, in may they had to leave, according to the agreement, the americans dragged until september until... august, understanding the circumstances, in which they will fall, and they still fell, you remember, right here the main thing, not even that, the main thing is this picture, when people ran after the plane and fell, and the plane did not take them, it looks like they were running away from in vietnam, the americans , you remember, they took embassies from the roof, they took people, and that they took everyone, no, many people in vietnam, after this end of the war. in vietnam, when, well, for various reasons

i will not go into details, but also many generals then said that it was a mistake, that there was a possibility of victory, as a result of political the decisions ended wrongly the results of military conflicts for these countries, and here i also think, somehow strangely, the united states showed a whole series of steps that showed its weakness in terms of military actions there, although each of the candidates now talks about the power of the united states. military, but this, you understand, it is not just demonstrated in warehouses, and here is the third, and now the third moment, people somehow passed peacefully for several decades without this horror of nuclear threats, well, there was no such horror since the beginning of the 90s , yes, we are already in in the 90s, when there was this confrontation, by the way, jimmy carter's 100th birthday today, exactly today, yes. or yesterday, well, somewhere yesterday, yesterday it was

100 years ago for the president of the united states, who met with brezhnev at that time, can you imagine what period, and then we were just... getting out of this arms race, yes, that is, the process began, and then everyone returned, and suddenly putin unleashed his own, with his cronies, we will do everything there, we will destroy washington, to pieces, nuclear weapons, then they suddenly remembered, again, again, wait, israel has nuclear weapons, israel clearly, well, i touch on it here, because it is important for understanding further, israel. nuclear weapons, israel has these capabilities already in a completely different version than in the same period there, by the way, today is the 51st year of the start of the doomsday war , that is, the 73rd year, that is why it was october 7, that is all the same, alone and harvest, yes,

that is all, this is all we remember what happened in those times, and then who is david, and then periods of long time, detente, that's it, this historical cycle ended when... ... it is over, here everyone will have their opinion, there is a year, but it's over already, you can't close this pandora's box and this tube, maybe it ended on september 11, when there was an attack on the twin towers, it's just that everyone didn't fully understand the consequences, well, in some countries differently, for example, i think, now i'm what the more i think, the more i am convinced that, for example, in israel, well, israel and palestine. a peaceful, peaceful process, it will largely end with the murder of isha karabin, well, the first intifada, maybe not even, the first intifada just led to the peace process, and it actually coincides there is a whole series of factors, and israel

finds itself under the attack of hezbollah, the same hezbollah and the intifada on the west bank and in the gaza strip, and then. a decision is made to go to the peace talks, and actually i think that in the long run the murder of rabin put an end to it, but then there were attempts, there were attempts to restore the peace process, and now we see that he has finally died, and this was just the first , the first step, here is the question, i still want to complete it with nuclear weapons, that is, there was a mode of general understanding oh... not proliferation, there are countries that got nuclear weapons, they pressured others, like ukraine, to get rid of them, and there is a certain group of countries, five are officially declared, that is, three everyone knows, which are pakistan, india, israel, well, iran is on the brink, and there are other countries that are on the brink

of this, and now the question is, that is, all the regimes of this deterrence are collapsing, i think that on'. and unfortunately, very unfortunately, we will become witnesses, part of this unfolding of the conflict of the world of the use of the attempt to use or the use of nuclear man-made objects or tactical nuclear weapons, why? because you can't, well, let's do it, this is my opinion, it's just so that people don't understand that it will be right there tomorrow, no, all logic shows that if they don't push the pasta back into this tyu. then this will be an element of building a new order, because iran, for example, now will not agree to the opinion that it does not have the right to create its nuclear program in these conditions, if it can, israel will not agree with the united states that

iran will have a nuclear weapons, so they will probably have them, if they see that it is almost ready, they will destroy it, well, they will try destroy, by the way, the same words. here 's a question for you, to what extent do you think that it is possible that iran will go so far, well , in its defense of its position, that it will still dare to demonstrate that it also has a weapon, well, what to call it, then there is a massive impression here . well, deterrence of some kind, yes, and i think, i think that, in principle, israel also has every chance that israel can strike now and there is every chance that iran can demonstrate this , that is, in principle, they are equal,

well, this will change everything, and then we will be in another world, now we will take a break for a few minutes and continue our conversation with mr. yegolos and mr. valery chelny, so stay with us. there are 20% discounts on progtobam in pharmacies plantain bam and the savings of thousands of ukrainians turned out to be. in a similar situation, the sofa suits you on the one hand, and as soon as the time comes to sleep on it, the thought of replacing it immediately arises, you understand why the issue of changing the sofa is so acute, but replacing the sofa is an effective and at the same time rational solution. instead of buying a new sofa for more than uah 10,000, buy a stopper organic mattress and save money. organic is a versatile topper, which, thanks to the combination of materials and different height materials, is able to grow. take almost any sleeping place and turn it into a comfortable one. order

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the help of a telephone survey , turn on and turn on, the verdict with serhiy rudenko, from tuesday to friday from 20 to 22. hundreds of thousands of square meters of damaged property, apartments, houses that need to be rebuilt, about the situation with reconstruction in different regions of ukraine, about rights, opportunities and personal experience. people, this is how olga's house was last year, and this is what it looks like now, i am not spending money at the moment, however, how to unite the country in the process of recovery in the project of the urban reconstruction and development program, every saturday at 18:30 for espresso. we continue the political club espresso program with you. vitaly portyk, you are our guests, director of the center for middle eastern studies, ihor semivalosiy, diplomats, politicians, valery chaly, we welcome

you once again, and we would like to add to our conversation a russian oppositionist, a member of the state duma of the russian federation ilyu panomarov, he is now in touch with us, congratulations, good evening, and now we have to discuss this, in principle, if we are talking about this confrontation between democracy and dictatorships, the question arises of how to fight dictatorships, for ukraine this is an urgent moment, this is the russian dictatorship, how in principle can it... be overthrown, modified, or should i say, forced to behave more cautiously, these are the issues that should be discussed, well, let's go, mr. ilya , let's start, well, fire is a sword, and how else, in another way, that is, democratic ways do not exist here now, if we are talking about dictatorships, a dictatorship can only be defeated by force, and... of course, it may not only be such brute force,

it is also necessary to connect the head, and from putin's point of view, it is also necessary to move in the diplomatic direction, there are sanctions, and pressure, and the main internal struggle, it is necessary to bribe some of the summers to our side, of course, so that they help, but... but in the end - in the end, without the use of force we will not achieve anything, well, that's a good question, so what the main thing, mr. valery, in this case, can there be another method? reactions than the use of force, in this case, well, in order to do something in a country, you have to be in this country, that's the first thing, all these governments in tibet or there, they don't achieve anything for one reason, they missed the moment, when, well, tibet is

a problem with china, and it is chinese territory, but there are those who advocate... dependence and freedom from this influence of beijing, and when you missed the moment when you can fight on your territory, then of course you don't you you are in exile and you no longer influence these things directly, and then you have to connect the forces of some other, other countries, other international organizations in order to influence, that is, yes, and it does not work as a rule, it works very badly, only in in historical terms, for a very long time, so... well, dictatorships can collapse due to the fact that there is no solid social or economic base under them, but as north korea shows, it is also possible to hold on to minimal economic results. in russia, i think, after all, if if we are talking about russia, then, unfortunately, russia

missed the moment when, as in belarus , it was possible to do what, by the way, the ukrainians did. the ukrainians went openly under bullets, as we now know, they were russian bullets and russian grenades that were used against ukrainians, or let me remind you 2000, you mean on the maidan in 2014, yes, well, there were obviously special forces there, including the crimean , but this crimean special forces recruit was already known in russia for a long time, that is, and it was still the fifth year, when it was just beginning, i very well ... i remember when near kyiv, and by the way, mr. igor, i remember when we went to independence square in the morning, i was very afraid that there would be no people there, and i met mr. igor, and the first one, and it was the very morning, so at this very moment, during the orange revolution, the fourth and fifth years, so at this very moment, at

this very moment near kiev, there were russians in the former pioneer camps. several hundred representatives of the russians have been sent here, so that at the moment when the ukrainian internal troops begin to disperse the maidan, they will also join in this operation, but before that they were not given commands, they were russian representatives, even then russia played it, very well, well, this is another topic, but simply then the ukrainians came out, defended, and the president, the then president kuchma, did not give in.. . once on forceful actions against the maidan, which yanukovych urged him to do, today, by the way, the parliamentarian yofe directly said that it is your duty to shoot people at the security council, yofe, who sits in the parliament, until now, well, that our history, therefore, unfortunately, this one was missed in russia a moment that the ukrainians did not miss, and now

i honestly do not have a recommendation, if there is only one recommendation, but it is a recommendation, we ourselves do not know how to do it, victory, defeat russia, it is obvious that the victory of ukraine will lead to a change of the regime, well no obviously, there are victories when which do not lead to, when he says obviously, russia is fighting, let me finish, a victory that i do not say that it will be, and i, by the way, do not consider it, it is a complete defeat for russia in what way , that ukraine deoccupies the territories, then... all subsequent actions, defragmentation of russia, regime change, well, i am not considering this scenario just now, so, unfortunately, it is unlikely that the events of the russian-ukrainian war can quickly change the situation for those people in russia who would like to see another country, as we know and mr. penomerov and whoever left this country, they want it, and i have two news,

one good, one bad, bad, that it will be long, good... i am sure that at least the european part of russia, sooner or later , historically, well, it will not move to other asia, there, it is most likely in some form will gravitate towards european intelligence, sir, and this is by and large, you also say all the time that it is impossible to change the situation in the country through emigration, that is your thesis in fact, now i am looking at mr. valery. and he has such a background there that it looks like he is already inside russia, it is very nice, unfortunately, i think that, unfortunately, the background, the background is not always. solves the story, yes, yes, but, but, i think there is crying about what did not happen in the past, well, i agree with him 100% that there

we could not there and did not change the situation, and it is because of this that this large-scale invasion is happening now, and the war started in the 14th year in general, it is because of the fact that the regime in russia did not change in time, of course we tried, well, but we have... what do we have in this sense, but now the question is not what was done there in the past, now the question is what to do in the future, and in the future in order to stop this war, just another way, except to destroy the regime in moscow, just does not exist, that is, we do not have such a question whether it will happen or not will not happen, the question is what should be done, and... er, of course, well, it must be stated that there is the russian so-called opposition, it is bankrupt, and it was not able to change the regime, i believe that it and will not be able to do this in the future, but

the beginning of a large-scale invasion gave another chance to create new armed formations, armed units that are composed of russian citizens, to create... a guerrilla movement inside the country, which is now cooperating with the ukrainian services there on the oil refinery, on aviation bases, there are other things that are happening in the middle of russia, and it is necessary to increase it, it is necessary to strengthen it, and it is necessary to simply move on to the fact that revolutionary events take place, and here, when we will remember... there are zeros in other countries , then we can easily recall examples of how and when it happened against the background of a defeat in the war, there

was a revolution there, well, for example, in germany, after the first world war, we can also recall examples when nothing happened after the defeat there, for example, iraq , after the first storm in the desert, well, you have to... exactly therefore, to make these changes happen right now and we can do it, we have everything in our hands, well, this is always the question, the truth is, because this is a dictatorship, and yes, he absolutely rightly said that he got saddam hussein's regime, despite the obvious military defeat, obviously the dictatorship, they very often show such resilience, which is not even expected from them, putin's dictatorship, by the way, it was formed on such a rather, i would say, uncertain background, the state was after the economic crisis, a person, who headed this state was unknown to anyone, there were many other strong players, but it has already survived several wars, it has already survived several

oligarchic conflicts, i was told that russians love it for putin because they are as good as they have never lived under him, this was an economic truth, but this truth no longer exists for many years, they have been living badly, and more than that, it also does not affect anything, well, to a certain extent, if we talk about... the regions, then the money that the regime is currently allocating for mobilization, well, for recruiting, for mobilizing people, they led to what these people first got a lot of money, and many say that in these distant settlements in siberia, others are better off than they were, they suddenly got more money and their lives are better now. ah, but in general, if we talk about trends, then , of course, the economic situation for russia is getting worse, only, we must remember, and

we lived in the soviet union, we remembered how the soviet economic union collapsed, but we did not noticed him from the point of view that if you live in moscow, and when cigarettes suddenly disappear, that's when you start for the first time to ask, where are cigarettes and or toothpaste, or sugar, or... and then people have questions, while these questions are not there, people in principle tend to lead their usual way of life, in addition, i think that there was such a certain consensus in russian society, actually fatigue, no matter what they say there, or was it formed, conventionally speaking, by propaganda, volumes from the 90s, but we remember, as in ukraine... it was not love to politics and to politics in after 2008 after 2008 yes, that is, in principle, when people perceived it as something e. not bad or

chaos, and in russia this was also accompanied by war, and it seems to me that the point of no return was earlier, the point of no return was actually the constitution, which was introduced back in 1993, the third year, even when it gave dictatorial powers to a large extent , it all depended then on the person who uses them, since lotteries, like lotteries, and and and from there it went, because... the circumstances in russia, they sought either to separate or to unite, yes, that is, in principle, the centripetal and the center and vice versa diverge and this is the effort that forces them to unite again, and at this stage it is very difficult to imagine what may happen in the near future that may lead to the collapse

of russia there or something else, but always... you have to remember, and this history of russia, at least 20 centuries of the world, that everything there can quickly end within one, two or three days, what it can be, no one knows, but the regime itself is by and large fragile, and the loss of the vertical, the power vertical almost immediately destroys it. there is one point i would like to make to ask sooner, very often they say that... well, the attitude in russia to many issues is different from the ukrainian one, and historically, maybe this is so, especially the attitude to human life, yes, that is, but i remember when putin in an interview with an american journalist when asked about kursk and the death of russian sailors, he said that it happened with a phone call, well, he laughed and laughed, many people in russia did not like it, there was a very serious rejection of such a position,

someone... human life , and i also believe that there should not have been such a gap historical interval, so that we diverged so much in our attitude to human life, as it is happening, we see now in russia, my question is whether there was an assumption in ukraine, including that it was part of military planning, by the way, what if give hanging to the advancing russia and many people will die in the war, well, there are hundreds. thousands who have already died, a hundred thousand, then the war will end, then everything will be the same, whatever the attitude, it will still affect russian society, very, very strange, it is true, because people who lived in the soviet union could not to invent such things, but why is the attitude different in ukraine now, after all, we lived in the soviet union for a long time, by the way, i am not sure that the attitude is different, i think that it is precisely because the attitude in ukraine is not the same, as in russia, but not as in europe, ukraine generally survives in this war, the ukrainian price of

life is less than the price of life. tells us that , after all, the number of dead , including muscovites, and st. petersburg, and there are already in moscow, in my opinion, already 400,000 contracts plus a local one, it is up to 800 dollars there go to war 4,000 is a contract plus a municipal surcharge. yes, that is, st. petersburg is the same story, or can the results of this bloody war and this furnace really affect the reputation of the government, well, maybe at least the reputation of the government, well, i think that someday it will definitely will affect, but the issue is that now the attitude of russians, well, towards life in general, is such that nothing depends on them, that

whatever they do... does not change what is happening around, well there and not only from the point of view of politics, and from the point of view there of social affairs there, well, whatever, and that's why, well, if there is an opportunity to make money from it, well, if our life is not worth anything there, and you can earn money there for your family and everything else, they try to make money, and there is still such an illusion, well, among many, that it is all voluntary, well, that is, if someone there, in the village, signs a contract for this, they chose such a fate, they choose their own path, and of course it is not so, of course, even if purely formally they sign voluntarily, then it's all the same due to circumstances