into a necklace for his newborn child. >> clearly, we're in the wrong line of work. melissa: that's all the money we have for you today. we'll see you back here tomorrow, and "the willis report" is up next. ♪ gerri: tonight, a must-win debate for president obama and more polls swing towards mitt romney. the white house said it was the future, a quarter billion dollars, but now another great energy company goes bust. welcome to "the willis report." ♪ gerri: hello, everybody, i'm gerri willis. now it's your turn.

tonight, town hall debate features regular americans asking president obama and mitt romney the tough questions. according to the mainstream media, average americans would be hard pressed to ask an intelligent question. >> it's great to have questions from citizens, but citizens are not expert questioners, not experts at following up. gerri: i guess mark thinks only journalists should ask the questions. with more on this, neil cavuto, from long island, new york, where he's hosting coverage at 8 p.m. eastern. all right, nemo, why is the main mainstream media dissing the citizens? >> i couldn't believe the arrogance of that remark. in other words, better odds that an average joe or joann is a lot closer to the economy than any prompter reader, myself included.

i think it's a given. sometimes it's just average folks who get to the core of the problem. you know, i remember in 1992, a young housewife who had said what can be done to hhlp my husband whose skills don't match what he needs to get a job and to help my family? that cuts to the core. that cuts to the core. you can have someone, a new yorker, intellectualize that saying, well, in this economy, how do we shift the responsibilities and roles and then retrain workers? there was a young lady talking about her just laid off husband in terms everybody could understand. get off your ivy tower and high society view and help me here. generally, those types of questions cut to the core, and cut to what this is about. gerri: you know, that aside, lovely journalists, very good,

but regular americans may have the most interesting questionings and questions that go to the heart of the problems as you just said, but you have, as usual, when you cover these events, you have a bangup list tonight that you integrate into the coverage. tell us what you have. >> well, what we were trying to do is an interesting point you raise. i want to stress the average folks asking questions, gerri, they get nervous. they are all selected in a room where their questions were submitted, and the candidates select them. they are nervous. i want to be president, responding o your question. people, nervous or not, and journalists get nervous too, by the way, asking questions, that if they are not answering your questions in the moment, you don't get a chance for a follow-up. no, that's not what i asked you. some can be direct.

they are very, very poignant. i think that's why this could be very instructive. now, it might lead to a more low key debate and that mite not be what the doctor ordered or wants, but the savvy politicians takes the question and works it into a narrative on how he's better shaped to deal with whatever the issue is and how the opponent is not. president obama to try to do that, and i think they expect questions to come up tonight, and we have simpson, the former chair, saying sort of whether you can go so far to cut too much about spending, charles schwab, and many, many more. it's really average citizens that reverberate tonight because they are the ones who were told are getting increasingly empty about the recovery.

it might pop up in the line of questioning. we shall see. gerri: i have to tell you here, i get nervous asking you questions too. >> yeah, who knew. gerri: it's a normal response. >> there you go. gerri: good luck tonight. i know it will be rivetting. >> thank you very much. gerri: watch neil tonight here on fbn at 8 p.m. eastern. it's going to be fascinating. unlike the first debate, stakes are high for both candidates, not just mitt romney. president obama is making up for his performance, but will he rise above the pressure or crack under it? deputy secretary defense, fox news contributor, o'connell, the chairman, and former mccain adviser. interesting, pugh polled folks tonight, and president wins tonight, 41% to 37%. what are your expectations?

>> you know, i think that's a right -- look, i cam waned against both president obama and mccain. the key for president obama is to go out there and say, look, america's recovering. mitt romney's plans for the future are hard wash, and they are going to hurt america. mitt romney's got to say, look, i got a plan to make america recover faster, and my policies will improve the lives of all americans over four years. that's what they try to do there. romney has to say to the president i have a plan moving forward, and barack obama wants to say romney's plans are worthless and there's no specifics. gerri: well, certainly the economy's going to be a big part of the debate tonight, no question about it, but we had another story -- actually, it's been on the front burner for about four weeks now, and that's libya. i want you to hear today, last night, that is, hillary clinton, taking responsibility for the

murder of her ambassador there. listen to this. >> i'm responsible for the state department for the more than 60,000 people around the world, the decisions about security assets are made by security professionals, but we're going to review everything to make sure we're doing what needs to be done in an increasingly risky environment. gerri: so, this was a shocker. i don't think anybody expected that hillary clinton taking on responsibility for this last night. this is going to be a part of the debate? is there a political component to this, you think? >> yeah, i think she threw herself under the bus saying i take responsibility. remember last week in the vice presidential debate, biden said it was the state department's fated. it was the intelligence community's fault who had the speedometer of feeding us the intelligence. we didn't know anything about it. i think the important thing,

though, especially to average guys asking the question, if most people don't want to know the specific details of what happened in libya or the specific details, they want to get on with their lives and make sure there's someone taking responsibility. if the president says the bad economy is george bush's fault or the european's fault or the problem in benghazi and libya, that's the state department's fault. at a certain point, people want someone to take responsibility and deal with it. gerri: the debate, the story's going on now for a month. i never expected it to last this long, big questions whether the administration is hiding, what it knew, when it knew it. do you expect this to resinate with voters? >> i think it could resinate with voters. it's up to how far mitt romney wants to push it because it really goes to the leadership component of it. really, remember, obama's been on the campaign trail saying,

hey, we killed bin laden. i'll trance late that for you. we're strong on terrorism. either way, it could be failed leadership particularly whennhe goes out two weeks after the situation, goes before the u.n. saying, hey, it was a video, and this was a, you know, a little get-together not meant to be a terrorist attack. that's something romney should foe -- focus on. gerri: aren't we focused on everything that's happened to date? >> yeah, i mean, here's the thing -- the thing is five days before that attack, president obama was at the democratic convention, and he said al-qaeda is finished, on their heals, we won the war on terror. five days later, what do you have? an attack and an american ambassador dead and killed. that calls into question, well, if al-qaeda's dead, why did they have a successful attack? if the war on terror is over, why are they spreading throughout the region?

the entire policy, not just what happens specifically this day or that day or who ffiled to pick up the phone to tell the president. gerri: you mentioned before, the economy, and there's no doubt there's a topic of debate tonight considering the questioners are regular americans worried about their jobs, concerned about the economy, can't seem to go anywhere. a lot of focus on how this is going to happen that it's a town hall, what do you make of the debate? about the debate? >> well, you know, the town hall format doesn't lend itself to the usc cage style match in the vp debate. it's a little more of a, you know, like "the view". style matters more than substance. people want to see can you convince me you have a plan for the future and you'll make all lives of americans better overall. that's what they have to do.

they have to focus on body language and answer questions directly. i think a lot will weave in personal stories. if i'm mitt romney, they will try to channel that in, turn, pivot, saying this is where the opponent's policies are weak. gerri: better prepared to ask questions than regular americans? what do you think? >> well, absolutely. the world is a changing place. this is nassau county, one of the most republican counties historically. there's a lot of former military people there or retired uniformed police and firemen. who's going to ask the question to say are you cutting my benefits? are you going to protect my kids? in fact, it's a good place to have some pretty real questions. gerri: will be excitingment can't wait. i'll watch, and i know you two will too. thanks for coming on tonight. appreciate it. >> thank you, gerri. gear gear what do you think -- gerri: what do you think? if romney wins, is it game, set, match? log on to gerriwillis.com, vote

on the right hand side of the screen, and i'll share the results at the end of the show. another -- no, it's not an old script here, but another green energy company gets hundreds of millions of your taxpayer dollars touted as the future by the future, today, goes into bankruptcy. also, can a computer pick the winner in november? the next guest says, yes, it can, and he'll show us how and how he's been right every year since this song was number one in the charts in 1980. ♪ everyone has goals.

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♪ gerri: will mitt romney win in november? one election model says yes, and it's been right for the past three decades. my next guest uses a sophisticated computer model since 1980 to correctly predict

the outcomes of the presidential elections. here to explain his method and madness, professor, thanks for coming on. to the viewers what it is you're forecasting with the computer model. you say mitt romney gets 330 electoral votes, and the president gets just 208. what is it about your model that leads you to these conclusions? >> we model the electoral college rather than figure out the votes. we use data going back to 1980 to do that, and what drives the model, in addition to the prior vote in each state is economic conditions, the economic fundmentals of the nation, and the view in each individual state. on the basis of that, with unemployment where it is and where real income on a per capita basis, where that has been, which is not been growing over the last four years, on the

basis of those factors, it looks pretty clear that the governor is running at a good time to be a challenger, and to win this election. gerri: professor, i'm sure you're aware that the unemployment rates for september went down 7.8%. 8% or higher for 43 months in a row. really painful for the american public, but we've had a couple good data points here. down by the time we get to the election in november that americans feel differently about their prospects? >> well, it's a possibility, but i think it's an unlikely possibility. one of the main drivers in that unemployment rate going down was people abandoning the work force. when we food -- model the economy, we look at unemployment, but we're also looking at income that households have. we're measuring income on a per capita basis with the effects of inflation removed. it's the purchasing power.

up employment went down, partly because people abandoned the work force. when they do that, there's less income to spend. while unemployment goes down helps the president somewhat, the fact that income goes down too hurts the president, and that's part of why these things tend to offset, and it continues to be an electoral cycle where it's better to be the challenger than the incuubent. gerri: i want to show folks a map of what your forecast looks like so people get a sense of it. look at that. this map is projections for romney winning on election day according to a computer model that our guest put together. professor bikcers, we talked about how the economy is so important here. could you be surprised? you have not been surprised in the past. you is an comeagz track record. anything happening in the next few weeks to turn it around? >> there's a possibility of a shock, like an attack from a --

if israel were to attack iran, for example, we can't model that. that's outside the model, something calamitous for one candidate or the other in the debates that are upcoming, sure, those things could have an effect, but by and large, people made up the mind about the economy. we know that from a lot of sources, and what they are trying to figure out now is are they ready to go with the challenger? that's what we saw happening in the debate in denver a couple weeks ago, which is people are saying, yeah, i don't mind looking at the challenger and if i'm undecided, maybe that's who i'll go with. that's what our model is showing. gerri: wow. professor, really compelling information. come back sometime. it's just interesting analysis. appreciate your time today, thank you. >> thank you. gerri: all right. washington, they waste money. i know. i shocked you with the statement; right? that may not surprise you, but this might.

the book announced a watch list of the most ridiculous spending in washington. of course, there's a lot of that. the republican senator of oklahoma had app example of let the meat caviar in washington. no surprise there. detailed 100 examples totally $19 billion, a drop of the bucket, to the debt we have, but it reflects the out of touch, out of control spending bankrupting the country. throughout the hour, we'll show you the most egregious examples of waste in the nation's capital like this one. look at this. nasa spent a million dollars to develop a mars menu meaning food humans would eat one day on mars. note to self, we're not there yet. coming up, our tax dollars bailing out banks in the past, and the president says -- >> we got back every dime we

used to rescue the financial system. >> is this true? we invest gait. it appears mitt romney is what women voters want. we'll weigh in the results of a new poll. also, one california city taking their smoking ban to a whole new level punishing people for what they do in their own homes. we're on the cave next on "the willis report." 0t[h7 ok, if you have copd like me,

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does not replace fast-acting inhalers for sudden symptoms. tell your doctor if you have kidn problems, glaucoma, trouble urinating, or an enlarged prostate. these may worsen with spiriva. discuss all medicines you take, even eye drops. stop taking spiriva and seek immediate medicahelp if your breathing suddenly worsens, your throat tongue swells, you get hives, vision changes or eye pain, or problems passing urine. other side effects include dry uth and constipation. nothing can reverse copd spiriva helps me breathe better. (blowing sou) ask your doctor about spiriva. gerri: obama says we're in a recovery and that the bailouts are paid back. can anyone in the white house tell the truth, next.

♪ gerri: we talk a lot about the lies in this administration tells about the economy about you name it, but last week, we got a whopper. here's the president on the

campaign trail talking about t.a.r.p.. >> we got back every dime we used to rescue the financial system, but we also passed historical bill to end taxpayer pundits wall street bailouts for good. gerri: every dime. every dime? really? i wish that were true, but up fortunately, the taxpayers have a pocket on the bailout of the financial industry. naturally, fannie mae and freddie mack lead the way. look at this. they owe taxpayers over $141 billion. they were in the center of the meltdown backing millions of loans that went bust. they never paid us back, but they are more important to the market now than ever before. there's aig, still owed more than $2.5 billion from the nearly $69 billion bailout that company got. government moe motors, i mean, general motors, a bailout the

president is proud of, but gm owes us half. gmac has barely repaid anything at all. we're owed $1 # 1 billion. sorry about that. chrysler repaid most, but owes us more than a billion bucks. those are just the companies you heard of. there's a slew of companies you're probably not familiar with like cit group, south financial, sterling financial, midwest bank, bank corp.. a lot of smaller banks were caught up in the mess, but here's the bottom line on t.a.r.p. spending. the government dispersed 604 billion dollars to 926 recipients. more than half is paid back, only $343 billion. we're owed $174 billion. that's four years after the crash. now, the government has made money it itself, $7.3 billion, but don't look for the money in

the refund check this year because the money or the biggest stakes tend to go to old crowenys, not you and me. case in point today, electric car battery producer filed for bankruptcy today receiving a $249 million grant as part of the $90 billion that the president earmarked for green energy. solyndra is already back in bankruptcy. here's the president back in april of 2010. >> one of the 48 companies to win recovery act grant for advanced battery technology. that grant helped a123 hire 44 new workers supporting the crix -- construction of three new plants in michigan that a123 expects to hire more than 120 workers by the end of this year, and thousand by next year, and more than 3,000 by the end of 2012. today's news is another sign we're on the right track.

gerri: promises, promises all broken. whether it's 90 billion for green energy or $604 billion to the financial sector, blanketing this country with taxpayer dollars is not lifted off economy or improved the fortunes of the middle class. 23 million are under employee r odd unemployed. the portion of americans on food stamps hit a new high. three and a half years after the recession was supposed to be over, throwing money at a problem doesn't solve it. what we are missing is leadership. when we come back, they were a big voting block for obama in 2008, but now women are swinging in mitt romney's direction. why the bump in the polls for the republican ticket? answers next. ♪ since ameriprise financial was founded back in 1894,

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and it. gerri: the candidates will come out swinging tonight then jabbed in the swing states tomorrow. obama's goes to ohio and i was at mitt romney goes to virginia. a new poll has mitt romney leading the president. the reason? women voters. wire they supporting him out? let's ask my next guest coming gretchen, what is going on? this is been a sore point*. >> not only mitt romney but republicans incense george h. w. bush.

the gender gap is there. but mitt romney can bring it within a close margin. he brought the deficit of 18 points into a tie. the calum point* is within one point* because women care about the broader issues. not about women rights or birth control. gerri: interesting is that women are not a model with. we care about the economy economy, fundamentals. women are different they are not the same interest group. kaltbaum mccann pain treats them as the monolithic group only about birth control. they care about unemployment come economy and debt and deficit romney either wins

or brings it to the thai. gerri: what to play some sound from and the event with hollywood actresses. listen to what they say. >> i wanted to talk about women, and mitt romney. he is for ending funding to planned parenthood including cancer screenings. >> most people see at as pandering to them to make an issue out of something that is not an issue. who is more out of touch that hollywood? [laughter] gerri: if you listen to hollywood and the left the think the only matter that issues -- issues that matter is birth control and abortion. women face the same seven

point* 8 percent unemployment rate, high proportion of americans on food stamps. we cannot put food on the table. how do democrats get it so wrong? >> in 2008 obama did not turn out the single women. they sat out. they think they can get them to come back out. he needs the single women. we have been talking about -his since february. [laughter] gerri: thank you for your time. a smoking ban has you fired up. democrats been the numbers with your taxes. which candidate is best? grover norquist has the real numbers. ♪ bob...

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gerri: the sec and presidential debate two hours away and democrats are planning their blows some. obama's tax plan will hurt taxpayers most. grover norquist president

for americans for tax reform. to start up criticism of the tax plan is effective. but democrats say it is the intention of the republicans to tax the middle class and give it to the wealthy people. >> mitt romney's plan is to cut tax rates across the board 20%. reagan did it 25%. kennedy did 22%. romney said he does not want to increase the deficit. more people will have jobs and he will eliminate deductions for high eight income people. democrats don't understand growth brings in revenue. gerri: you don't have to talk about dollar for dollar replacement. >> of course, not. i think they should be cut across the board period.

gerri: in your perfect world i think that is the way that it works. growth is absolutely key. i want to get to a subtle change about what his tax policy will be. >> some of the obamacare paid one every specific. obama's promise four years ago he would never raise taxes on any one. and earning less than $250,000. he broke that many times. but the new promise from colorado that is in the teleprompter that my plan if you earn less than $250,000

and will not raise income taxes. now all the promising not to raise income-tax leaving open value added tax and only through 2013. after that he caps -- keeps his word. allowing the bush tax cuts to lapse and in his mind after one year he could raise any tax that he once. gerri: obama's tells you that and the media is not reporting a. this was part of of vice-presidential debate with the impact of small businesses. how do you define small-business? >> 97% will be hit.

another fact that is true, 1 million small businesses will be hit. 1 million across the country that will pay the higher taxes as high as 44%. the fact it is a small percentage of many does not get around the fact is 1 million small businesses. gerri: jobs are hanging in the balance. they tend not to grow. the fiscal cliff is looming. this will hit a lot f people. 90% will pay more over the year. do you have confidence

congress will do something? >> it depends on the election. if from the wince all of the lab saying tax cuts are continued then they do tax reform. if from the wince all of the lab saying tax cuts are continued then they do tax reform. mitt romney wins there will be no raising of taxes. gerri: you cannot count on that. >> applebaum of wins the presidency or a democratic senate, they could block the continuation of the bush tax cuts. two years ago democratic senate and president extending all tax cuts to years they were terrified to hurt the economy when a bomb iran for reelection in. the economy is worse now.

those who insist on the tax cuts being continued is the 20 democrats up for reelection 2014. if they have any say they will extend them two years. if they don't been indefinitely with the republican-led congress and republican president. gerri: great to have you on set. a shocker on wall street can obama campaign that the market has doubled under his administration? what is really happening? next. ♪ 0t[h7

gerri: citi group new ceo today's said the -- vikram pandit it was not pushed out he quit. report said he led the bank in and out of the crisis was ousted over a clash of strategy. and a conference call the new ceo said that is not the case also he will not change the direction of the bank. shareholders have not been too excited with vikram pandit. he received $50 million last year. the new ceo has worked for the bank since he graduated from harvard in 1983.

veterans ceos on their way out makes way for the executives under the age of 40. the highest-paid yen executives. number five the president of symantec's taking a $6 million per year. number four. managing director of capital management topping $7 million. number three, at christopher winfrey from charter communications for a 36 earnings 7.5 million. james murdoch ceo of news corporation 39. earning 13.5 million per year and the number one executive 36 year-old vice president of facebook

earning nearly $25 million per year. does he own any facebook stock? the truth behind the market's and the economy. obama will put the best spin on it tonight. michelle gave him credit for doubling the stock market. dishy have the right? from fulcrum securities, rob , did the double the market? >> the president gets to much credit when things are good and too much blame when things are bad. you cannot legislate the business cycle. i would say no. it doubled because earnings have gotten better. gerri: look at the numbers that are out today. cpi index is up in home

builder confidence is soaring. industrial production looks good. this is positive implications? >> i think so. the economic release was positive and we're starting to get into earnings season for the most part those earnings looked good. gerri: people are of beat with the financial sector give us an analysis. >> i like the financials but i shy away i think there is balance sheet issues bank of america reports tomorrow with the expectations that are low but goldman sachs had good records but it is based on low expectations so

i think bank of america should be able to clear it. gerri: talk about vikram pandit being tossed out. what do you make of it? >> obviously it is he said/she said. who knows? look at the facts. balance sheet issues and the stock when the s&p 500 has doubled nothing else has approached that return. i don't think he did do the greatest job regardless of his departure. gerri: no doubt tonight the economy is front and center. we have seen the good news from the jobs market but i am not convinced the economy

is coming back. >> i think you are right. we had structural changes and used to be a manufacturing economy now we are a service recovery -- economy. having a jobless recovery we invented that 25 years ago. as long as the service economy this is the type you will have. for -- full disclosure will vote for romney but the president may be getting too much blame because you cannot legislate the business cycle. gerri: you can help it. [laughter] thank you. you'll be right back with the answer to the question. is a game set match if governor romney wins?

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we're committed to safely and responsibly producing natural gas. it's not a dream. america'natural gas... putting us in control of our energfuture, now. gerri: president obama tonight sayses he feels great in advance of tonight's second debate woo hours from now. will another performance be game, set, match for mitt romney? here's what you are posting. donald says, "it will be insur mountable barring a scandal effect of surprise, romney in a landslide, no, you would close the race tighter. michael says it's not over until november 6. 70% of you said yes, 20% no. log on tooour online question every weekday.

if things don't work out or mayor bloomberg in new york city, he could find a home in california. the suburbanned smoking, not just in public places, but in duplexes, condos, and other multifamily homes so if you own your own condo or home, it doesn't matter, you still can't smoke. the city council putting it in favor of the ban last night, the ninth municipality to ban the smoking in unit housing. i'm not for smokes, but i'm not for this. what right does the council have to tell me what to do inside my own home? that's a slippery slope. that's my two crepts more. the romney campaigns turns attention to the deficit and debt with a policy speech friday. former vice chairman and reagan