individuals making over what billion-dollar is. there we great battleground ideas out there but everyone gets behind the talking points and is not tried to move the ball forward. yes we have the spending problem but a president not budging and away to show if traders looking at that now it is time for melissa. melissa: i'm missa francis and here's what's money tonight. a new county down. 49 days until theiscal cliff hits. i'm already sick of people sang the awer is for everyone to work together! how about an actual pan? i will talk to one congressman at the center of all of it about when we'll seereal action. a new study says we, the united states of america will be the world's top oil producer in just five years. this would be great. unless it is all fantasy. i will get the answers from oil guru stephen schork. gas companies get sued for price-gouging after the storm but would there have been a gas crisis if anyone could have charged as much as they wanted? one ecomist says, hey, if

someonis willing to pay $15 a gallon the should be able to sell it for that and he is here to make his case. even when they say it's not, it is always about money. melissa: first, let's take a look at a market headline. stocks saw light trading on this veterans day holiday. a wait and see mode on fiscal cliff and european debt crisis basically left stocks unchanged. the dow closed down one point. shares of jeffrey's group soared more than 14%. the securities firm announced its biggest share hold, leucadia international, is acquiring it for $2.7 billion. best buy named the ceo former hea of williams-sonoma will take over the posion. best buy shares close up more than 3 1/2% on the day.

now to our top story, it is what everyone is talking about right you no, the dreaded fisal cliff. but here's what is really getting to me. it is all the talking. that is all we do. we hear about people talking and dbating, discussing all the differentways this could be negotiated. so how about this? why not put out a plan? one with real proposals? what to cut what to keep? it could be a starting point for congress to finally take some action. i don't know maybe i'm crazy. don't answer that we have republican senator from louisiana, david vitter. senator, who do you think will make the first move here? >> good to be with you, melissa. the present has to lead. it is always up to presidential leadership on this issue he has to lead. the solution, compromise is pretty obvious. it is a tax increase but embeed inax reform with rates not going up but actually going down, and spending and entitlement reform. melissa: okay. let's -- >> compromise and obvious

package, the qstion is, is president obama going to lead on that? melissa: why ds you have to go first? couldn't you show him up and come up with a good proposal ouof the gate? >> anybody could do that. it will simply not have the credibility, garner the attention without the president leading, that is number one. the number two, the reason he has to go first, he really pulled back in all previous negotiations when it fell apart about a year ago. republicans need to be convinced that he is ge for this and he is open to this obvious compromise. republics have made that step before. the republicans on the so-called super-committee, basically proposed a version of this beforr. melissa: but, don't you just look like obstructionists? seems like just from a negotiating standpoint, if you hop out there first and say we have come to the table with a solution, no matter what, the other side then is saying no, they look like they're the problem? so why not go fir? >> well, i mean i think

speaker boehner basically did that the day after the election. now obviously there wasn't fine detail on it but he laid out exactly what i'm talking about. laid out the path for ward and asked prident obama to join him on that path. he outlined exactly that path forward. melissa: would you agree to raising taxes on people that make over $250,000 a year or families that make that or do you think the number has to be higher? >> the devil is in the details. i would certainly prefer the number be much higher. i would like no tax increase period. goes without saying that i would the incomeumber to be much higher. the key is can't be just a rate increase which most folks think would be most negative for the economy. it has to in tax reform without a rate increase. in ft i would like all the rates to go down. that canbe done when you're broadening the base and getting rid of a great majority of credits and deductions and loopholes and special interest provision. >> that kind of sounded like a no to my actual question, you know, would you be

willing to raise marginal rates on people making over 250,000? >> if you're talking about raising marginal rates that is absolute no. melissa: okay. >> that would be an absolute no from the republican house more importantly. melissa: is it possibl the thing people say about reforming the tax code oh, that is over whelming, how are we possibly going to that in time? is there a practical way to do that befe we go barreling over this cliff? >>that will not be done in all the details necessary by december 31st. however, what could be done is an outline of th grand bargain with deadlines into the new year. continue the present rates. have mandates from the relevant committees, house and senate, to report tax and entitlement reform bills following this outline by a date certain. melia: so is this another e of those things where we sort of lay out something that is cobbled together but don't maybe the hard decisions? i mean would that be some people say washiton will kick the can, i hate that phrase but just sort of

fits. would what you're talking about be that -- >> if you're asking is something in precise detail both on the tax side and the spending side going to be rfected and passed by dember 31st, i don't think there is any chance of that as a practical matter. so if you're asking tha, yes, i think the can will be kicked down the road but it is a little different if you have a fairly clear outline of where you're going with deadlines for the coittees to report those bill. >> okay. ank you somuch for coming on. we really appreciate your time. >> thanks, melissa very much. i. melissa: i hope we get to a solution here. let's turn to former indiana senator evan bayh joining us on the same topic. senator, you spent enough time in d.c. to know how these things work. you saidrecently the appearance of trying to negotiate across the aisle is now perceived as betrayal of your own party rather than trying to work together. so howo you think this is going to play out? >> melissa, i'm as pessimistic as anybod about dysfunction and gridlock in

washington but i do think there is some reason to be cautusly optimistic here. i agree with a fair amount of what senator vitter jt said. i think the president having been reelected will be more willing to take on entitlement reform. doesn't have to worry about offending his base so much. the fact he is elected the republicans don't have to focus on trying to defeat him quite so much and i think he will be interested in his legacy. he has to get this de otherwise it haags over everythinghe next four yes. you look over that, i think there is window of opportunity next six months to hammer out some difficult, don't get me wrong, a lot of brinkmanship, right to the 11th hour but actually make some major progress on these fiscal issues. melissa: what do you think the final deal looks like? you heardd what senator vittert said. to me while that might sound practical it does not sound like something democrats will accept here in the wake of what they think is a mandate. seems like democrats want to die on the hllf this marginal tax increase of people either ove 250,000

couples or over a million. do youhink that is essential to getting a deal done, at piece has to be in it? >> no. leaders like senator schumer have already said he thinks it should be a million dollars. i think there is a lot of room for maneuver there. i think the harder part with regard to all that is treatment of dividends and capital gains. clearly republicans want to have that treated in a way that fosters investment and growth. democrats want to focus on equity for people who drive the vast majory of their income from passive sources like that. i think thais the harder issue. melissa: how do you think that gets resolved? >> well that's a good question. i tend t be a little more moderate on these things than most members of my own party. i guess, they are 15. they both go up to 20, something like that. people will be pushing for more than that. my guess that is not a bad place to comprome. meliss as somebody who is now, who has been through it so many times and is now probably thankfully on sidelines watching everyone fight this one out, what is

your bet on how this plays out from here? >> my bet is, about a 40% chance of a framewor ing announced. two to one spending cuts versus revenue increases. tax reform, a mandate to the committees to go do it. some sort of sword of damocles on june the 30th, if tey don't get the job done here is wt will go into effect. that is the scenario senator vittert was outlining. i think that is 40% chance. 30% chance we go over the cliff for 48 to 72 hours. that would cause all hell to break loose. votes would, taxes gone up, everyone is voting to bring them back down for people who don't want to vote for any kind of tax increase whatsoever. 15% chance that there is just a complete failure and other 15% chance that they really g everything done. so i think the most likely outcome is a framework with a timeline and consequences if they don't meet the timeline. and a modest downayment towards getting theeficit

down. think th is the most likely outcome. melissa, as i said before, a lot of volatility. a lot of uncertainty. this will not get done until the 11th hour. at several points in time each side will walk aw from the table and thro up their hand and that's it. the next day the market will sell off. melissa: dramatically when someone is fouled in the nb. an laying on t ground writing in pain like they have been murdered we' see all that. >> if i have 10 seconds. viewers may remember the tarp vote, 75-25. went over tohe house. house voted it down. stock market dropped 700 points in hour and a half. that tookthe hse to come back and actually pass the bill. yomight see something like that. the better bet is at the 11th hour they announce a framework. melissa: if we have the framework with all hell breaking loose in july or june whatever it is, isn't that what we did this time? that sounds very familiar. makes the deadlines seem so fake. seems like that what we set up for this time. >> that's true, but, the framework will be, $2 of

spending reductions and enlightment reform for everyone dollar of revenue. they will instruct the committees you have to come up with tax reform. he is how much it has to generate in the way of new revenue and they will have to consequence for failure unlike this time, melissa, the big difference this time it was armageddon. if they didn't get the job done it was clearly unacceptable outcome. next time the sword of damocl will be something people could live wth and more likely to actually go into effect. melissa: senator, thanks so much for coming on. we appreciate your time tonight. >> good luck with your book. melissa: thank you. here's the question of the day. what's the single biggest compromise each party should make to avoid the fiscal cliff? we want to hearhat you think. like us on facebook at facebook.com/melissafrancisfo or follow me on twitter @melissaafrancis. next on "money", move over saudi arabia. a new report says the u.s. will be the world's number one oil producer in just five years. but is it t good to be

true? stephen schork of the schork report is here to break it all down. us the northeast gas crisis has wreaked havoc for millions of people but one economist says price gouging actually could have prevented it. he is here to explain. more "money" coming up.

♪ . melissa: so time to gush about oil right here in the usa. that'sight, believe ii or not the international energy agency says the u.s. will become the world's top oil produc in five years. that would be amazing if it's true. what will it take to get there? i don't know. let's turn to oil guru stephen schork, founder and editor of the schork report. stephen, as always, welcome back to the show. >> great to be here, thank you. melissa: all this is predicated on tracking and shale. first of all do you think it is realistic? that is pretty quick time horizon? >> absolutely, melissa, and it is amazing when you make prices go high enough how much of a supply given commodity there is out there. with all apologies to the

bob dylan, the answer is not blowing in the wind. the answer is drilling beneath our feet. melissa: so let's do comparisons on a price basis because my thought on this we coul outproduce saudi aria at some price. saudi arab the oil is sor of sitting rightn top of the sand. we're talking about oil in the u.s. that is more expensive to get to. but at the same time we don't have to transport it because it is right here. it is all about the equaon on both sides. what price do you think o has to be for this to make sense? >> at these prices right now we're looking nominal prices, right now, for brent, we'll use that as the world proxy, 105 to $115 a barrel does seem to work at these leve to this point. so, we're there, we're there at this juncture. melissa: couldn't saudi arabia though just really open up the tap and flood us out of the market? they kind of, they produce what the is demand for but

that doesn't mean they can't open up the tap and drive the price lower in order to sort of drive their fracking out of business? >> well, there is indeed a concern with that but keep in mind high prices are not in opec's or saudi arabia's best interests. high prices being, prices that t the market simply can not afford. prices for instance we saw at the beginning of this year, $130 a barrel. messa: they could drive it lower. they could drive it lower. they could open up the tap to increase supply, drive price lower and drive the fracking guys out of business. >> indeed but that standpoint y don't want to make the price, you don't want to drive out the supplies. these are supplies here in the united states that the technologies are improving. the oil coming to market now in the united states was commercially unavaible 10 years ago because the technology and production techniques did not exist. that is only going to continue. so really isn't in saudi's best interests to drive the u.s. out of the market. melissa: yeah. >> still going to be a force

and given the forecast the majority, and this is the trend we've been seeing for the past 10 years, the trend as far as saudi and as far as opec is concerned their growth, their clients are in asia. they're no longer in the united states. melissa: they don't care anyway. what about, i'm trying it foresee all the speed bumps in the road here. other thing what we've seen with natural gas practicing -- fracking everybody rt of wentfter it at one time. all of sudden there was explosion of the natural gas on the market and price fell below two bucks and a lot of people backed off their drilling bause the price went so low so quickly. is there a chance of that happening with crude oil? >> well there is. the analogy with natural gas because what we've seen in the natural gas is fall back in production of dry natural gas. liquids, prone, methane stuff linked to theoil market. we still have high natural gas production. we still have high oil

production beari natural gas prices because we're getting that production. if indeed you make prices low enough, that the best-case scenario,isn't it? supply on the market, lower prices, a win-win for both sides and both the consumer and both for industry. keep in mind, we're just out in ohio last we with parts of the utica shale in eastern ohio. we're on the verge of this country of manufacturing renaissance all predicated on ch information. it is a good thing for all of us right now melissa: let me ask you because this sounds like maybe the end of clean engy, why aren't gas prices lower at the pump? why isn't it cheaper forme to fill up if we have this abundance of resources? >> we have the abundance of resources. the play now in the market is we don't have the resources ere we need them. so it is an infrastructure play. we have a lot of oil sitting in bakken, up in cada. simply can't get the to where it needs to be refineries in the gulf coast and refineries on the east and st coast. that is the play to look for. we're in the midst of a

complete change over to the schematic of north american energy assets to the flow, which way the flow, for crying out loud, natul gas, west virgina is exporting tural gas to canada of all people. entire flow, the economic are all changing. it is all predicated on infrastructure melissa: uh-oh, we're in trouble. we know what happened to the exce pipeline. >> indeed. melissa: we'll talk about that next time. >> thank you, melissa. lissa: time for the fuel gauge report. oil prices broke a two-day winning streak on e.u. and debt crisis concerns. we'll solve the problems any day. crude fell t 85.57 a barrel. the iaea getting atteion looking to government subsidies to the fossil fuel industry. research says the sector got $523 billion tax breaks and government assistance around the globe. i don't know. i have to see those details. a 30% increase from 2010. moody's predicts

president obama will green light the ski tone exl pipeline in the second term. bubut a decision isn't expected to come quickly. nokidding. moody's says long permitting process means the pipeline may not become prathal until 2015, 2016. who knows. coming up on "money" an economist who saysampant price-gouging on gas means there wouldn't be a post-storm crisis at all. very interesting. he will come on and explain this one. remember when president obama said this? >> if you like your doctor you will be able to keep your doctor, peod. if you like your hlth care plan, you will be able to keep your healthcare plan. period. no one will take it away. no matter what. melia: well, some wal-mart employee are ready to jump onhe government dole. more may be just behind them. we'll tell you why. do you ever have too much

money? we'll be right back. ♪

♪ . melissa: gays lines in the northeast are easing up. but there is a chance they will get longer again. if we just let the free market work and allow people to jack up the prices we wouldn't have tse problems to begin with. casey mulligan is a economics professor at the university of ccago and author of the book, the redistribution process. he joins me w. very interesting. so give me your solution here. you think if we just let gas stations charge whatever the market would bear we wouldn't have a run but wouldn't have a lot of cars on side of the road empty, no? >> that's exactly right. you know obviouslyly after you have a disaster it takes

extraordinary efforts to get the necessities to people who need them and the mark does that by having extra ordinary prices. instead, what these no-no economics government officials have done, christie or mr. have loan in suffolk county, they came out immediately saying we won't let you charge high prices. basically you're telling them we will no let you get reward for extraordinary efforts. so guess what? they didn't do extraordinary efforts to get people what they need. melissa: you think there would be more supply in the area? medy would truck it from further away? not only the rich to have gas. you

unknown health care costs of thing like no preexisting conditions. melissa: so if they go ahead and raise the price and employees can't afford it, what happens then? >> well, presumably, depending on the level of income of those employees, they could be eligible for some subsidies in the affordable care act going through the internet through what is called the insurance exchanges at each state. melissa: how does that work? who pays for that? >> well, the employer obviously, if they choose not to provide health insurance for their employees do pay a fee or a fine to cover those individual employees. but --. melissa: go ahead. >> still providing insurance, if they're still providing insurance for their

employees and employees can takedvantage of them, employees choose not to, and their income is low enough they apply for the subsidies, then, that comes out of the taxpayers pocketbook. melissa: just becomes another one of the giant entitlements we have going in this cotry. >> that is certainly a way to look at it. melissa: they talk about premiums at wal-mart going up as much as 36%, you look what the premium is though. it is like, i'm trying it find it. you know, $15 a month? so even if it went up 36%, still o only like, 20 bucks. it's at the end of the day on percentage basis sounds like a lot but not that expensive. don't yo think most employees can afford that? >> well, you know, most employers provide hlth insurance. they pay the vast majority of the costs. ually somewhere between 70 and 80 plus percent. employees are left to pay the balance of course if health care premiums go up, obvusly

employees portion with go up too. if employer like wal-mart covers significant part of the increase, then the part the employees would have to pay obviously is much less and then i guess depends on the individual circumstance whether the employee feels it is too much. melissa: you know, someone o has been in the industry for a lo time what do you think is the bottom line how is is playing out? is it, is it net-net good? do more people end up with health insurance or, you know, does it become, what does it look like in the end? >> well i think in the end more people obviously do have health insurance. whether they have someone that will, a physician that will actually see them or not is a different story. what i think the real lling int her is that this may be the ver first sign, first salvo in what's going to happen with the empler mandate. my ilosophy which i stated in my book is that probably within 10 years we will do away with employer-based

insurance because employers, we have to remember, that, providing health insurance for your employees can be a problem. often results in you having to make decisions which don't please your employees which is never a good position. i think what will happen is, many employers are simply going to say i'm going to choose not to provide you health insurance. i will pay the fine, particularly if the teen is less than cost of insurance. let you go to the insurance exchange and find it yourself and rlace it with some other benefit not nearly as controversial. melissa: se peopleill go to the exchange and wealthy people wll buy really expensive health care and better and create a two-tiered system at end of the day. >> that certainly could happen. melissa: stan, thanks so much for coming on, we appreciate your time. >> all right, thank you. melissa: there may be no better way to tnk veterans than helping them fund a job. how one organization has given work to 60,000 of our rerning heroes in just one year. at the end of the day it is all about money.

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melissa: so ire kids may look as tod another day off from school but in this

day and age we can't ignore the huge sacrific our military make for us every day. the absole least, least we can do is help them get a job when they get back for putting their lives on the line for us. listen to this. the international franchise association helped put more than 64,000 vets back to work and they aren't nearly finished. we have e president and ceo of the ia. welcome to the show, steve. thanks for coming on. >> thanks, melissa. appreciate being here. melissa: tell me about operation enduring opportunity. where did this idea come from and what does it do? >> sure. back in 1991 in the wake of the gulf war the international franchise association started vet friend which essentially provided financial discounts for returning members of t the military to get them back into the civilian economy? why? because we know veterans are used to structure. they're used to syems. it is about operational excellence. if when you look at basic tenets that make franchising

successful. proven, structured scalable modeof franchising. when first lady obama and dr. joe biden put out the call for businesses to step up. we look a look inside ourselves as industry and you know what? we already know we have 66,000 veteran owned franchise busisses in this industry. we employ 815,000 people. vets tend to hire vets. our board got together and we tossed around a lot of ideas. we said, you know what? we'll commit to hiring 75,000 veterans, military spouses and 5,000 wounded warriors by the end of 2014. of course y just referenced our study where we have said that in the first year surveying 800 mpanie member companies, by franchise business review, that we brought in almost 65,000 veterans. 4300, melissa of that business franchise owners. fantastistuff. melissa: if i can stop you for jt one second. ses like franchises are a particularly food fit for

veterans which i think is so intesting. it tak as special person to open a franchise. take as certain amount of determination, bravery, i mean, you're not working for someone else. you're taking on the debt of opening a small business or woing for a small business owner according to the suey, 95% of franchisees said veterans are particularly good fit for employment. and it is also interesting the average veteran-owned franchise generatesbout $2.1 million. versus versus, compared to other businesses with, i'm sorry, other veteran owned businesses that areot franchises. generate about half a million dollars. why do you think that is a particularly good fit for vets? >> again i think it goes back, you said it, their grit, their determination, their experience following operational excellence on the ground. when you transfer the skills into franchising which is being in business for

yourself but not by yourself as we like to say, formula entrepreneurism, veterans just really fit well. and again you know we have a millio brave young men and women returning over the next three years. we have to t them back into the civilian economy. so we believe veterans are good for franchising. franchising is good for veterans. most importantly, veterans are great for this country and we need to find work for them. melissa: sure. >> look, we're at 7.9% unemployment. we have a million vets coming back. so it's a bigger picture we have to look at here. melissa: it is a partularly hard tim to find a job. there are millions, 16 million people who aren't working as much as they want to or not working at all. >> that's right. melissa: you add veterans to that mix, you know, do you feel like they should sort of be a step ahead of everybody else? >> well, look, here's what i know. they have risked, some have give the ultimate sacrifice and many are coming back wounded, severely wounded,

the wounded warriors. what i can say is they deserve an opportunity. e 18 to 24-year-old bracket of veterans are 24.8% unemployment rate that is staggering and really alarming. we have to do something about it. we're hopeful many other industries will follow, you know, the call by first lady obama and dr. jill biden. we woed closely with our friends at the u.s. chamber of commerce. they're our hiring heroes program. i will be wth them later this week. we're proud of the results. we have a ways to go. we hope others follow in line. melissa: thanks for coming on veterans day. i thought it was interesting the stats prove this is tick lawley good fit. -- particularly good fit. >> thanks, melissa. melissa: bill o'reilly may have the best selli nonficti book. watch out. my memoir is out today and i have some of the biggest

names in the business helping it to make a slash. watch out, bill o'reilly. you can never have too much money or too many books. that is the big cheese, roger ailes at my party. ♪ .

♪

melissa: all right. it's time for a little spare change. today we are finally joined by my 1:00 p.m. co-host, lori rothman. and our very own dennis kneele. come on. i don't want to make you feel that. he comes out here nd does some good materialevery single week. >>ou was talking about his joke writing. i did not prepare thatwell. melissa: bucl up. all right. first up, can you please pay attention to me? this is from my fabulous launch party for my ew book. there it is. diary of a stage mother daughter. >> adorable. >> million kelly. >> she was crashin >> the female anchors just want to scratch each other's eyes out ice of the intercom. look at that ppertaining read your book. melissa: now, you read it. lori rothman was there. the boss of all bosses, roger ailes came. so fabulous. so much fun. all about me.

there is the fabulous staff. in cas you're wondering who makes all this happened. the book is amazing. so many child actors blow up, and you didn't. you're oing. [talking over each other] >> depends on how you look at it, but the good thing about the book, great insight. i think melissa as always had this effervescent and disasr quality wrapped around something that is like titanium razor sharp and willing to kill you. lori, the whole reason she showed up today. she's afraid to say no because melissa, and i don't knowf you know about this, but hollywood is already talking. there will be a lifetime movie of this book. i want to look at who is being discussed as playing her as a young child. take a look at her book cover. they're talking about. [laughter] >> that's awesome. melissa: i love it. i would take that any day. >> a package deal. >> there you go.

>> the follow-up. >> i told my in-laws. watch out. you beter be nice to me. i'm coming for you next. >> there you go. >> serious question. it was not your choice get intocting, but he stuck with it. >> not being beaten. >> i love this. you have to really enjoy it to get out there and do it. i mean, you know kids. you can't get them to do anything they don't want to do. it's all about bribe and, you know, it's possible i have a narcissistic level of attention in the camera. it's possible that i have a problem. >> not that we understand thing about that. >> i remember watching you on the house on the prairie live minnows so envious you got to go work every day with michael landon. melissa: hansen. you were like seve. there's some real psychological problems. >> a. did you ever get together with any of the other cast members like jason bteman? >> s thomas of the other day.

we had dinner. >> that's great that you guys still talk to each other. melissa: yes. >> enough about you. what are we going to do. melissa: all right. next up. sslling tickets. a spanish theater is selling carrots, which is brilliant. new austerity measures mean higher sales taxes on everything, including a 21% rate for theater tckets. in order to get around it hey are seling carrots, which are only taxed becuse tey're consered a staple. an economist of this tax evasion. posh. even the local mayr supports the theat directors decision. what do you think? i think is genius th happen tocome with a free movie. >> what was shoking, one cared cost $16 spain. >> i think it's for purposes of this city can use itfor the ticket prices. >> that's what they're charging. >> of the you can give them the carr to get into the theater. >> i read it so that inflation

is set. [talking over each other] >> the movie, all of these discretionary purchases that you make. you know, taxes are low on carrots. >> carrot and stick, and it will not survive, but it does show you that what happens when government goes too far and raises taxes too much copybook, but enterprising ways to get around it. this is definitely in your face. this is a very bitter the carriage. melissa: it is a budgetary to swallow. moving on to another possible when for the tax man, but this time it is in france. neato lovers might ant to stock up right now. the price could go through the roof. palm o is a crucial ingredient many of the pastries. so now frenchlawmakers are considering raising the tax to 300%. there must be raising a 300%.

do you think the tax we will pass? do you think the mayor is going to go, ben, at sounds pretty cler. >> i used to work a bloomberg. the most popular item is the developer. and -- >> this is obviously that stupid european regations version of spare change. but there is no way they can get away with this. we have too stupid regulations in a row. the carriage thing. somewhere in europe just today they dspatched plans were som kind of another one of those taxes onfat. they decided it's not effective. it never work. people are just going to put the company had a business. melissa: it's crazy. >> again, it gets back to the value added tax. if you're in a suation where you have to have austerity measures and higher taxes, now you are against relevant, but if you have to tax something you miiht as well tax b-movie