very special guest from overseas. ashley: yes, we do. nicole: i am medical petallides. ashley: i am ashley webster. michael steinberr arrested on insider trading charges. ashley: mortgage rate climbing from record lows. bill emerson will be joining us in minutes. where he thinks the housing recovery is at at this point. nicole: crisis and cyprus. this may last for months. ashley: the top portfolio

manager arrested this morning by the fbi on insider trading charges. our colleague at the "wall street journal" catching that arrest of michael steinberg this morning. he is the most senior executive of the hedge fund to be snared in the government probe. he has pled not guilty and will be released on $3 million bail. mike has conducted himself professionally and ethically. we believe him to be a man of integrity. charlie gasparino has been all over this story for us. charlie: they gave us a news story on good friday. nicole: a man of integrity. what do you think? >> i do not know. he says he wrote an ethical shop. i have gone round and round with sec for years.

i always believed that the ultimate target of the investigation, not think he is guilty, but the target of the immigration has been steve cohen. i believe that based on my sources. it is getting closer and closer. everybody thought that matthew martoma actually had a 20 minute phone call with steve cohen before he did a 180. >> people thought that was the weight they would try to nail steve cohen. there are so many different avenues. how does he survive this as a firm? whether they do invite him or get somebody to flip on him.

how do they survive as a firm when they are literally taking off yourrtop people? it is almost like the vice president being indicted. we should point out, there is no president, steve cohen runs the company. there is no nominal number two. nicole: what do you see for the near term? >> they will continue to try to make a case against steve cohen. there are other production dates coming. blackstone is one of their big, this is key for their big client. blackstone says they are not sure if they will pull money out or not. steve collins own net worth of $9 billion fund, that alone

makes it one of the biggest hedge funds around. theoretically, they could they open. i do not know how you have a public hedge fund when you're number two guy is indicted. that is a huge blow. what is mr. steinberger saying when he is facing ten years in jail? they make a huge thing out of it. the knucklehead who sent the racist and nutty e-mails, he was the guy that came out and said the fbi showed up to his door, he got four years in jail or marginal stuff. mr. steinberg is looking at much more than that. they get guys around the guy in the middle.

remember that great scene in godfather two: there are lots of buffers. they go after them and that is how they get the guy at the top. nicole: even though the markets are close, we have a few economic reports this morning. our u.s. consumers feeling confident with the state of the economy? our very own elizabeth macdonald is with us. liz: great economic data. when you look at this, you have to say to yourself, our bill in an air park it in the market? the consumers are feeling a lot better right now. let's look at the numbers. we have good jobs coming in. we have personal income outside

a very nice rate. the number came in fairly strong. even the most on reconstruct it there has to say to themselves, wait a second, are we in a good space right now? we are not feeling like it is a white nicole ride anymore. look at the best performers so far on the s&p 500 this year. we have the dow ringing the bells at the strongest first quarter since 1998. look at this and best buy. hp, as well. h&r block, who would have thought. upon groupon there. what is really telling, i have to tell you, look at what

goldman sachs and morgan stanley are saying about where the s&p will end up at the end of the year. goldman sachs is now raising it to 1625. look at how much it increases. are we in a good space right now? it sure feels that way. we had all the predictions from sequestration. then with the hike in the payroll tax. all of this, they have said okay. sentiment is up high. it feels like there is some sense to this recovery. liz: time and again, economic data can use to surprise to the upside. you are right, the mayan

collapse did not happen. [ laughter ] ashley: we all survived. thank you very much. mortgage rates continued to edge higher. application continue to rise. jumping 8% last week alone. is this a sign that rates have bothered on bottoming? joining us now is bill emerson. do you expect this trend to continue? >> think it depends on a lot of things. it depends on what happens economically. jobs are really a big piece of that. folks feel good when they are going back to work. right now, rates are very low.

we are starting to see some home prices appreciate. as long as we stay stable and we don't have a challenge from europe, i think you will start to see home prices continue to rise and people getting back in the game of buying homes. ashley: millions of consumers out there that could benefit refinancing their homes and mortgages. why haven't they? >> that is a great question. you are referring to a program called harp. there is still two and a half million people out there who have not taken advantage of today's low interest rates. they either do not know about the program or they do not believe the program is for real or if they are not sure that they qualify. we talk to people every day in

that situation that can save 300 to $600 a month. ashley: so much is made of the credit standard. >> i think there is a lot of talk about credit and credit being type. there is still plenty of opportunity for people to qualify. i do think that folks at the lower end of the credit score have more challenges in the nap then they did in the past. ashley: do you have to put 20% down? >> no. fha still allows between 3.5%

and 5%. that is clearly a missed number. there are rules that could potentially be coming into affect that would cause folks to put more down. >> a lack of inventory is working to push those numbers higher. >> if you think about inventory, it is tight. when you think about the fact about the folks underwater, it's it difficult for them. inventory is tight. ashley: great stuff. thank you so much for joining us today. >> my pleasure. nicole: more troubles for electric carmaker fisker. according to the "wall street journal," the automaker has hired advisers to prepare a

bankruptcy filing. manufacturer is the maker of the karma and $100,000 hybrid sports car. it has been struggling. the company's cofounder resigned earlier this month. he was founded in part by an obama administration founder. if you do not succeed, try, try again. you know that saying. pushing for a $0.75 tax on the rich should. ashley: russia. the new plan to limit sulfur in your gas could mean higher prices at the gas pump. nicole: cyprus extending limits on capital controls. we are live there next. ♪ i'm a conservative investor.

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nicole: the immediate crisis in cyprus is hopefully over. things are not getting back to normal any time soon. with more on what things are like on the ground there in cyprus, i bring in my very own cousin irene petallides. the best thing to come of this is i get to see my first cousin twice in one week. we are checking in with you because when i spoke with you earlier in the week, you certainly seem worried. you have not been paid for your company. how do you feel now? >> hi. good to see you again. we are calm. everything here is still called. we are very proud.

like you said, the banks opened yesterday. everything was running smoothly without any incident. there were long lines like we expected. everyone was calm and understanding that they had to wait. it was a very proud feeling, actually. speak i am very proud also. a lot of people expected and that of very angry people and riots to go along with it. you said you feel slightly betrayed by the euro zone. what are people saying now about the euro zone? >> at the moment, we are looking at our own backyard. we are not really interested in

any other euro zone country. like we said, we are determined. we are proud. we are remaining calm. we are just going to fight through it. nicole: like cyprus always does. what about the fact that cyprus was an economy that was flourishing before it entered the euro zone. you took a haircut. what happens to the economy now? i am hearing stories about businesses that will either have to cut the wages, to layoffs or close the businesses. >> there will be job losses. we know that. we cannot kid ourselves about that. that is something that is worrying a lot of people. there is no invitation at the example, for example, big businesses are leaving the country.

nicole: that is a very good thing. >> there is also talk that there is no indication that the to her resume has fallen. no major cancellations into her. that is our main bread and butter, so to speak. nicole: how about your son? how are the children cyprus? >> my son is eight. people are not crying and screaming and throwing themselves on the floor. he knows as far as an 8-year-old can understand. of course, an 8-year-old does not understand the impact. grown-ups do not understand the impact of what this bailout brings. nicole: do you worry that it may not be enough?

>> anything is possible, nicole. anything is possible. nicole: i love you very much. kiss nicholas for me. >> i will. you kiss the boys. ashley: it is very difficult to have any faith or confidence and what happens next. nicole: you believe that your money is safe. ashley: french president called for a 75% tax on the writ. you remember this a few months ago. it was rejected by the courts. he is changing his proposal. he is now looking to tax businesses. this probably will not help the france economy.

shaping up to be the worst quarter since 29. he is under a lot of pressure. that will not sit well. we have hardly seen people leaving the current. more of that will happen. the environmental protection agency proposing new standards for cleaner gasoline in cars. they will cut down on pollution. it will probably end up costing you more at the pump. peter barnes in washington with the details. peter: this proposal will clean up gasoline and carbon emissions come but also, higher gas prices. less than a penny a gallon. according to an oil industry study, six-nine cents per gallon. the epa will hold hearings on

this. "today's proposed standards are next up in our work to protect public health and our providing of the industry with the certainty they need to offer the same car models." the proposal will cost oil refineries billions and unjustified investments. >> i am doubtful that the rule would ever be justified on a cost and if it basis. that the actual benefits public outweigh the costs that are imposed on the economy. this is kind of a game that people play in d.c. if you do not want to embark upon the required necessary investments in refining infrastructure, you painted a doom and gloom scenario that is in excess of what the actual cost are going to be.

peter: if, when the proposals are approved, they would go into affect in 2017. ashley: peter barnes in washington, d.c. nicole: happy easter, peter zombie foreclosures. major concerns. zillow chief economist is next. ashley: hacking as easy as 123. is your cell phone at risk? which ones leave you this vulnerable. ♪

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>> at 20 seven minutes past the hour i'm arthel neville with your fox news minute. the white house says north korea's threats to launch rockets on the u.s. will just deepen the country's isolation from the world. the threats came after american b-2 bombers dropped dummy munitions yesterday with joint military drills with south korea. former african president and anti-apartheid leader nelson mandela is in good

spirits following treatment for a recurring lung infection. he was admitted to the hospital in pretoria wednesday night. it is third trip to the hospital since december. transit police in philadelphia are calling a local man a hero after he jumped on the subway tracks, you saw that, to help a man off the platform. he held the man's head and neck stable until firefighters arrived a few minutes later. investigators don't know what caused the man to fall. unbelievable. those are the headlines on the fox business network. back to nicole and ashley. ashley: very brave indeed. arthel neville, thank you very much. breaking news. ubs agree to go pay $40 million a to settle a probe on shipments on behalf of illegal online pharmacies. the nonprosecution agreement struck with the u.s. attorney's office in san francisco follows a probe into illegal internet pharmacies dea has been investigating fedex over

similar issues according to "wall street journal" sources but fedex not a part of that settlement today. nicole: as homes claw that way back to precrisis levels, another issue is climbing up. zombie homes are broken down homes eye source for neighborhoods and hotbeds for criminal activity. do you really want one of these in your neighborhood? probably not. for more on the zombie homes, bring in zillow chief economist, stan humphries. this is the first topic, stan. how much of a problem are the zombie homes, foreclosed homes, sit on your road, they're dilapidated and falling apart and sometimes can be a place for criminal activity? what do you think? >> i don't think zombie homes are really any problem for the overall market. they are definitely problems for local municipal governments because they're a drain on resources it false to the local government to maintain the houses and there's not receiving tax revenues for them. but for the overall market the real story is inventory shortages. having some foreclosures out there is definitely not a problem.

in fact overall foreclosures are down. nicole: i want to highlight. we have a great map where a lot of zombie homes actually lie. the top area, florida, actually tops the list of the zombie properties with over 90,000. other areas would be indiana, nevada, oregon, illinois, california. if you live in these areas you may have seen these homes. jeez, i wish somebody would buy the home and move in and move on with it. one of the issues in housing there is just not enough inventory. that seems surprising to many people. why? >> that's right. it has been a real turnaround how quickly inventory dried up. we have definitely gone from steep home value declines two years, ago, a lot of sunbelt markets, we're see appreciation rates above 15%. the phoenix we're seeing home values 20%. for sale of inventory of homes in the market is down 17%. but some of these markets like california markets, inventory is down 40%. we're seeing real ininventory restrictions

leading in turn to price increase. >> no doubt, stan, we're seeing some of the areas hardest hit coming back as fastest speed. you noted phoenix, las vegas, san francisco, miami, san jose. manhattan goes into that category. how much of the good housing turn around do you relate to low mortgage prices, rates i should say? >> i think it is really incredible impact of low mortgages rates. if you look at impact, monthly mortgage payment relative to incomes that is currently 37% below the average between 1985 and 2000. homes look incredibly affordable. instead of looking at low mortgage rates where are a big factor driving those down, look at fundamental home prices themselves they're 15% above the average between 1985 and 2000. meaning homes thelsselves pricewise are fairly expensive even though they look affordable because of low interest rates right now. nicole: i have only 10 seconds. what is your outlook?

give us a word on the housing market, great, bad, okay, what do you think? >> we think strong recovery. expect 3.2% appreciation over next year. we're worried about gaining too much too fast. nicole: stan humphries of zillow, thanks so much for breaking it down for us. we appreciate it. >> thank you. ashley: all right. we have more breaking news for you. united airlines says it is delaying its new denver to tokyo service again because its new boeing 787 jets remain grounded. it will now begin june 10th. the airline originally planned to relaunch the route on march 31st. boeing 787 dreamliner has been grounded since january due to the problems with its battery. so more delays. all right, coming up after splitting from wendy's fast-food chain, arby's is serving up profits. what is the secret to their success? arby's president will be here to tell us. nicole: and a record-breaking streak for the dow jones industrials. the names you need to know

before monday's trading session. we'll have that for you next.

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>> while cnbc is on tape we're open for business. nicole: we have to get you through what you saw first quarter of stocks in overall market. seeing a lot of green. cheryl casone is here with biggest winners, losers in the market over the first quarter. what are you looking at? >> for you since you're here in the studio for us, the dow. you had the dow rise almost 11% in the first quarter of 2013. new records being hit obviously. 14,578. here is the 3-month chart for the dow. you can see the rise we got. take a look at s&p, big rise for the s&p in the first quarter of this year. the s&p gaining almost 10%.

finally after 13 sessions as we all know the s&p finally getting into record territory. i want to go back in the dow with nicole's honor. look at names, basically led the dow higher. some that didn't perform so well. i want to start off with hewlett-packard. biggest, best performer for 2013, in the first quarter, excuse me. here are the three-month chart. the stock gained when it closed up 26 cents. hpq chrand 67% in the first quarter of 2013. now to american express. here is the stock and how it closed last night. the another story with american express. american express 17%. travelers, again, 17% gain. johnson & johnson, 16%. here is that stock for the three months and pfizer, 15%. now there were drags on the dow. first the caterpillar. caterpillar losing 3% in the first quarter. that global story. we all know about caterpillar equipment especially china was a big problem there. alcoa losing 2% in the first

quarter. so despite records we got, as you can see here, alcoa, three-month chart. exxonmobil did gain but not a big gain. only 4%. bank of america, 5%. unitedhealthcare group, 5%. so these are the names that kind of how they performed but these really are the stocks that we watched, nicole. obviously that you watch all of the time when you're on the floor of the new york stock exchange but again, that record high. hit it march fifth with the dow and hit it last night and second quarter begins monday. nicole: exciting for bulls out there. a lot of gainers that we've seen, like hewlett-packard and netflix, some that led the s&p 500 they have all stories that go behind them. even best buy that recovered. great with that. we'll see what the second quarter brinks. >> hpq, who knew, guys? ashley: will be hard to match the first quarter. cheryl, thanks so much. let's talk about some, food. arby's beefing up its business. one time struggling fast-food chain has been taking big steps to boost

sales after splitting from wendy's. here to tell us more about the big changes inside the business is arby's ceo, halo mode dell moving. thank you for joining us. i as looking at the stats when you took over the arby's chain in defend, sales were down. profits were down. the then parent company of wendy's and arby's posted a $4.3 million loss. you have turned things around very impressively. how have you done that. >> well, thanks very much, it is really me and a big team of people back at the ranch. we have done it, we've got, we're on our 9th consecutive quarter of comp sales increases. as everybody knows in the retail business, that top line drives everything. we're very excited about that. the two biggest areas that really has driven arby's performance which is menu

innovation that we're known for and new campaign slicing up the truth about freshness. new brand positioning. new menu innovation and a lot of hard work these last nine quarters. ashley: it is interesting. you're a private company. does it help to focus on your business without the scrutiny if you like of public shareholders? >> i absolutely think so. i love being a private company. frankly. we're owned by roarks capital. they're a great owner. they're brand builders. we can focus on the long term. there is still a lot of things we still want and need to do with the brand. it provides yoo opportunity to focus on building a brand for the long term and growing the business of our franchises. ashley: what is your core demographic group as the advertisers like to talk about? >> well, it's interesting we don't really define them in terms of demographics per se because it is 18 to 54 and everything around those. but we have something called the modern day traditionalist. that is our design target

and these are people who share a common set of values and the biggest thing that they share is they love arby's and they love our product and they can't wait for to us come out with the next new innovation. ashley: i guess the core demographic would be those that are really hungry. looking at your fact sheet here. i'm fascinated in 48 states of 50 but not in vermont or rhode island. why? >> well i think actually we should be talking to the good people of vermont and rhode island about that because i think we need to be there. i guess the fact that they're small states. now that you mention it i will get the team back at the headquarters working on that one. ashley: we need to go 50 for 50. thanks so much for joining us. congratulations and continued success. >> thank you so much. nicole: you inspired them, ashley. ashley: there you go. nicole: cyber threat, something we all worry about. how safe is your mobile phone? we have the best and the worst when it comes to keeping your information private. ashley: and google, already tops in the digital mapping

world. having new public transit features to its maps app. we'll show you what it looks like next. the capital one cash rewards card gives you 1% cash back on all purchases, plus a 50% annual bonus. and everyone but her... no. no! no. ...likes 50% more cash. but i don't give up easy... do you want 50% more cash? yes! yes?! ♪ [ male announcer ] the capital one cash rewards card gives you 1% cash back on every purchase, plus a 50% annual bonus on the cash you earn. it's the card for people who like more cash. ♪ what's in your wallet? why? and we've hit the why phase...

why? i have obligations. cute tobligations, but obligations.g. i need to rethink the core of my portfolio. what i really need is sleep. introducing the ishares core, building blocks for the heart of your portfolio. find out why 9 out of 10 large professional investors choose ishares for their etfs. ishares by blackrock. call 1-800-ishares for a prospectus which includes investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. read and consider it carefully before investing. risk includes possible loss of principal. nicole: in an effort to stay on course in the mapping game google has enhanced its maps transit feature. google maps users can view

live departure for several salt lake city tram and bus lines and subways lines right here in new york. ers in washington, d.c., can't see live departure times yet but they can get live service alerts, delays and scheduled track work. google maps now has transit information for 800 cities worldwide. and microsoft bing added public transportation information in 2010. apple is holding out and yet to add public transit information to its new map app. ashley: nice to know something isn't running or track is shut down. nicole: got to know. ashley: there you go. got to know. it is accepted wisdom that your internet browser and smartphone are safe and secure from hacking. a new report says that may not be the case. our very own shibani joshi has details from the latest scare. shibani. >> hat attacks we talk about it all the time all the companies getting hacked. one thing we don't know

where the hackers are. we know where they're targeting. they're targeting smartphones and platforms that have highest numbers of users. what a study shows from source fire, breaks down the number of vulnerabilitis. vulnerabilities means wear flaws. in the smartphone industry. they looked over last 25 years. results may surprise you especially if you saw the iphone was safe here. biggest percent of all iphone software vulnerabilities or software flaws in general are on the iphone, then android and windows and blackberry phone. the company goes on to say that apple didn't focus very much on security at least initially when they first released the iphone. they still have made significant improvement and can be considered the current market leader. there's the source there. also there also targeting on desktops and pcs and tablets. source fire says the most critical security flaws are on, get this, we'll break

out of here now? you have breaking news i guess. ashley: all right. shibani. a little disturbing for the iphone users. thank you very much. nicole: very good info, shibani, thank you very much. breaking news as shibani noted, espn reported that detroit tigers pitcher justin verlander reached a record seven-year contract. you know how much it is worth? $180 million. you know what that makes him? the highest paid pitcher in baseball. good luck to the tiger fans. ashley: wow, should have played more baseball in little league and all that. one. big parts of the president's jobs act was to make ipos a bit simpler. almost one year later did the jobs act do its job on ipos? we'll tell you. nicole: plus are you spending more money on the bunny, easter bunny that is. there is him right there. well the answer may surprise you. that's next my mother made the best toffee in the world.

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nicole: it's been nearly one year since the jobs act was implemented. one of its goals was to make the road to ipos easier for emerging companies. turns out the ipos are actually down 21% since it was implemented. so with stocks as record highs, what's the outlook for ipos going forward? our next guest keeps track of all these things. that's why we're having mr. jay ritter on. professor university of florida. i want to first begin with the jobs act legislation that was introduced. how much do you think it hurt the ipo market? we saw it pulled back a little bit. do you think it was directly related, or not?. >> very little relation. the jobs act had several

features to it. some of which facilitated private companies raising money. some of which facilitated companies to go public. and, the two things are probably pretty much a wash. last year, when i testified before the u.s. senate banking committee about the jobs act i predicted it would have no effect on the ipo market. and with a year's worth of experience looks like that prediction was one of the few predictions that have been made that have been right. nicole: i'm sure you predicted many things that have been right. we talk about the jobs act. so is it a complete failure or just a nonevent? was it worth anybody's time? >> largely a nonevent. the jobs act tweaked some of the regulations that affect companies going public. but i think the main reason that we've seen so few ipos ever since the tech bubble burst 12 years ago, is that not because of regulatory

policy. because bus getting big fast is more important than it used to be and a lot of small companies have decided rather than going public and growing organically that selling out is the best way of getting big fast. nicole: oh, no. we see ipos, i was sort of thinking that with the market improving the environment improving that it would be a great place for ipos to now reemerge and start over again. we saw pinnacle foods this week which did very well at the ipo yesterday. this is a new jersey based company. on the other hand you had something like facebook which was a complete debacle. you know, there are a lot of advantages for ipos. why aren't we just seeing a boom? >> he will well, there are definitely some companies going public. facebook was backed by venture-capitalists. pinnacle foods was backed by a buyout firm both of which sought exits.

and indeed some companies are best as independent companies. but, a trend that has been going on for 20 years or more, it that, getting big fast is more important than it used to be. consequently not so much a public company versus private company issue. it's a small company versus big company issue. a lot of small companies can get big fast by being acquired. nicole: that's very good point. that's right. see there is something else you were right on, mr. jay ritter. thanks so much for being with us, university of florida professor. we appreciate your up sight that this. thanks again. ashley: all right, well now to the easter bunny, the really important stuff. and you could be feeling frugal. according to the national retail federation most people are keeping their spending in check this easter season. eight in 10 americans who plan it celebrate easter will spend average of 145 bucks this year. that is about the same amount as last year. in total easter spending

expected to bring in $17.2 billion nationwide. what are people buying exactly? no surprise here, candy. don't have any on the set as nicole pointed out. $2.3 billion expected to be spent this year on 90 million chocolate easter bunnies, 700 million marshmallow peeps and 16 billion jellybeans. nicole: certainly a big business. if you have easter on may 5th, get it half price. forget about financial futures, how about investing in wine futures? fine wine retailer gary phish joins us next on with tracy byrnes and ashley webster. breathe, and how that feels. copd includes chronic bronchitis and emphysema. spiriva helps control my copd symptoms by keeping my airways open for 24 hours. plus, it reduces copd flare-ups.

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tracy: welcome back. i'm tracy byrnes. ashley: i'm ashley webster. inside of a trading chart is climbing the ladder at sac capital. the feds charged their most

senior target at the hedge fund. what will it mean for sac founder and investor steve cohen? that will be ahead. tracy: regulation nation. they epa wants new rules for gas. drivers will end up paying the price. we'll tell you how much it will boost the price. ashley: no big surprise. growing konlt virz over president obama's pick for labor secretary. did thomas perez use political muscle to undermined the rule of law. tracy: that is so crazy. first evidence that americans are feeling confident about the economy and spending more. lizzie mack is here with the story. really? >> three important data points. consumer sentiment, personal income and personal spending all up. the consumer sentiment number is at a four-month high. best since november. personal income is coming in strong. even when you knock out ggs and food the spending came in pretty solid. if it stays at this pace it could be the fastest spending growth in two

years. were engines knocked off of the recovery? that is the question because of, you raised this too, ashley, payroll tax increase and sequestration? no, the answer seems to be no. now we know that these data points can be rear view mirror thinking, right? certainly analysts take on them but what we like to look at what is happening with the s&p 500, all 10 sectors up. we know the dow is trading at the highest level since 1998. can it hold? have we rung the bell at top or happy the roof didn't fall in? look at stocks that are performing putting in good numbers so far this quarter. take a look here. you will see, look at that netflix, best buy. hp pulling in a strong performance. wow! h and ar block coming in solid. now look at the stinkers. on the stinker list, look at the worst performers. of course jcpenney. garman and apollo group. those are the worst

performers in the first quarter. not so surprised about jcpenney. what i want to turn to next. where do we end up at the end of the year? at the stretch we're going at we would be up 15%. when you look at 30 years worth of data and this first quarter performance going back for the s&p 500 again at the first quarter performance of the s&p 500 where we end up at end of year? bears are throwing in the towel. goldman sachs reforecast the s&p up to 1625. that's what we say at year-end at s&p. big bear, at morgan stanley thrown in the towel, adam parker, to 1600 up from 1424. have we rung the bell at the top? doesn't feel like emotionally wide trading ranges we're feeling with the markets right now. ashley: yeah. >> doesn't feel like so much of a white-knuckle ride right now. tracy: no, it doesn't? >> are we operating in a air pocket? we'll talk about that. most unreconstructed bears are saying, uh-oh, we may

have miss the i had roo. they're feeling kind of bad. tracy: economic data blows my mind. i can't be the only person feeling this payroll tax. i just can't. i feel like the surveys say i am. ashley: we had people say consumers just brushed it aside. >> taking it in stride, right? yes. i know what you're saying tracy. tracy: i'm not. >> for a lot of families out there, i hear about it. we all felt it. hey, the numbers are coming in. tracy: god bless everybody else, emac, thank you very much. >> sure. ashley: elizabeth, appreciate it. more now on consumer spending. more feeling better about the economy as well. could it signal a pickup in economic growth this quarter? let's bring in a former economist at the house ways and means committee. now at the american enterprise institute. alex, we were talking with liz macdonald. seems all engines are go albeit, you know, modestly so but it does seem like we're gaining some momentum. with this latest consumer sentiment number, the highest since november, it does seem very positive.

>> well, certainly, thanks for having me on. it certainly is the case that the numbers that came out this morning are positive as was just reported. increases in income, spending and consumers are feeling a little bit better. we should keep in mind that same report last month, personal income report, in january was terrible. and that's a result of the tax law changes and the expiration of the payroll tax holiday. saw a huge drop in personal income, the biggest in 20 years. but the good news is, that things have started to turn around. those numbers are pointing up. people are willing to spend and they are earning a little bit more. i attribute some of this, just to the resolution of all of the uncertainty we were facing right around the end of last year. so, as we all remember, december beginning of january, fiscal cliff was looming. no one knew what their tax rates were going to be like this year. with that uncertainty, taken out of the equation, people

feel a little bit more comfortable. >> that is interesting, alex. there were all sorts of dire predictions with sequestration. they seem to be brushed aside. to tracy's point. this payroll tax hike we thought would take a bite out of consumer spending, it just doesn't seem to have happened? >> i think that's right. the sequestration, of course, remember, it just began at the beginning of this month. a lot of the effects of it haven't yet materialized. some of the policies, the furloughs, haven't begun. the effects on medicare payments won't begin until next month. but at the end of the day, i believe that the sequestration is closer to a nothing burtering in terms of the macro economy. that is the key. not to say that the sequestration is a good idea. it is a terrible way to structure spending constraints but in total, the total reduction if outlays this year will be order of magnitude of $40 billion. in the a $1 trillion economy that will not move the dial very much -- 16 trillion. ashley: do you think the

economy is sustainable? are consumers in the driver's seat? housing industry is important. a lot of money tied up in homes. prices increase. are we really on solid ground? >> when we looked at the last gdp number for the fourth quarter of last year, that number was just revised to reflect a significant increase in real investment in the economy. of course as you noted home prices and home sales seem to be moving up a little bit. that will contribute to the positive sentiment, the consumer sentiment numbers that we've seen. i think we are on an upward path for the u.s. economy but the key here it is a tepid upward path. ashley: yee. >> we're growing. we'll profbly grow a i'm a little optimistic, 2% this year. others are more pessimistic. that is not 3% or 3 1/2% growth we love to be enjoying at this point. ashley: you know that's true. it is interesting.

a very resill ability economy when you economy everything that has been thrown at it and compare the euro it is quite remarkable. the interesting thing if unemployment does improve significantly we start thinking about the fed taking away all that cheap money. >> that's right. i think the labor market is really key here. while the overall u.s. economy is growing, i think it will continue to grow. it might soften a little bit in the second quarter but it is continuing to grow. what i don't see are real strong improvements in the labor market. and that really worries me in two parts. first of all, just the overall level of employment remains high by historical record and furthermore, folks who have been unemployed for a long time, those people are really struggling. there's a lot of long-term unemployment in our economy. we don't see that in the headline number but it's there if you dig down into the reports. and that long-term unemployment, those workers

very concerned about their ability to get back into the workforce, really ever. ashley: yeah. >> they're losing critical skills. they're being discourage. that will be a long-term drag on the u.s. economy. ashley: you're absolutely right. thank you so much. alex brill with aei. thank you so much for joining us today. we appreciate it, alex are. >> thanks for having me on. ashley: those people, a lot of people have just given up. tracy: yeah, because they feel like they don't have the skills. ashley: companies have gotten used to do the same with less. that is another issue. tracy: there's that. coming up, it is almost april. your tax return is due. i did mine. did you do yours? ashley: i did. tracy: wait, waiting on bated breath for my refund. is it sign, sealed and delivered? ernst & young tax expert on last minute tips for those that haven't filed. ashley: we're so smug. big questions about president obama's choice for labor secretary thomas perez. will controversy surrounding some of his past work get in the way of his senate

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how old is the oldest person you've known? we gave people a sticker and had them show us. we learned a lot of us have known someone who's lived well into their 90s. and that's a great thing. ut even though we're living longer, one thing that hasn't changed: the official retirement age. ♪ the question is how do you make sure you have the money you need to enjoy all of these years. ♪

tracy: we have breaking news for you. toys "r" us just withdrawn its initial public offering. this is according to an sec filing. the company initially filed for the ipo nearly three years ago. not working out so well, three years ago. okay. time to make money for charles payne. this hour we're continuing a discussion we actually started yesterday about wall street's weak targets and poor timing. should investors even listen to wall street anymore? or is this firms trying to be responsible. what do you say, charles? >> i wish i could say they were trying to be responsible. you know why? they have a fiduciary responsibility. one of the key critical things with the responsibility make sure you never lose principle or try not to. you grow the pot. there was report august,

2010, 29% of publicly rated companies had a buy rating. that was the lowest number since 1997. where have the stocks gone from august 2010 to today? i mean they have done extraordinarily well. tracy: this is what i wanted to say yesterday but we didn't have a lot of tile. the pay scale changed for these twice ever since the financial crisis, right? they guys used to be paid top dollar. made loads of money. maybe they got a better group of people. can you make a correlation between these guys? who would you you measure how good they are. tracy: you can't get the creel of crop? who would take that salary? >> somewhat of a good point. i've been doing this for years, over 25 years you have to have a certain passion about it. i got rid of a lot of analysts who work for me. you have to have a passion you walk out the door you can't forget about this i have to walk down the street to see seven people inside of a line to go shoe store, look if they're publicly-traded and look at financials. you don't have to be highest

paid person in the world to have. the people you were talking about were deal-makers. be honest, an old analyst was deal-makers. knew all the insiders to go public through his firm. do the big bond offering. would maybe be a consultant. and that is how make $20 million. sec said you can't have a research firm to pump stocks the company took public the whole thing collapsed. i think they have been afraid to your point. ashley: playing it safe. >> the public is already dept call with respect to the stock market. tracy: are they not attracting guys willing to go out an a him because of what happened? ashley: maybe not. >> maybe we're not maybe not rewarding them enough. tracy: yeah. >> i point i made yesterday, guys. if you look here this week and some price targets, right? you had very conservative stuff. paychex went from 30 to 32. six flags from 78 to 81. these are from relatively larger firms. robust, more robust upgrades this week.

zillow, tag, i don't know who tag is, went from 41 to 53. that is big 25% difference. ens, maksim will not being 46 bucks. it will be 57. these are owe bust major changes in the a gets. as investors maybe i buy the stock. maybe i hold onto the stock. certainly you will not get me to buy stock because you think it will go to 81 from 78. tracy: maybe smaller firms are getting pr. >> might be trying to take a claim for themselves. maybe they are taking greater risk. ashley: charles, track record is really important. follow them for a while. see if they seem to know what they're talking about. otherwise -- >> kind of hard, behind the opaque wall you're not sure who the individual is. ashley: that's true. >> people watching the show tend to lump all wall street together. i can tell you it is almost a joke. hard to laugh when i think a lot of people missed this rally and will continue to miss the rally. ashley: interesting stuff. charles payne. thank you. >> have a great weekend.

>> you too. tracy: happy easter. well the deadline to file your taxes a little more than two weeks away which is crazy but they're is still time to take advantage of last minute tax tips. we will try to save you some money. joining us now, tax guru from ernst & young. working on this friday thankfully. i'm glad you're here. a lot of people scrambling. are you seeing a lot of, you know, different things than you've seen in the past because so many people tried to pull into last year and take advantage of things becauser unsure what was going to happen? >> yes. there was a real acceleration of into last year to get, take advantage of lower rates. and as a result, there is a whole lot of people who owe this april 15th. didn't have enough withheld. didn't make estimated payments. may not have needed to because they're doing a catch-up now. so there will be lots of balances due, paid with returns in april 15th. a lot of extensions with big payments. that are going. now it is really important then to file that extension

or return timely. tracy: right. >> with payment. so that you do not have penalties. tracy: that's, but the 4868 is extension form. that's a great point. you have to pay your bill. it is not extension to pay. >> right. tracy: if you haven't prepped the return yet how do you know what to pay? >> you have to pull out let's say the 2011 return, pull out all information you do have, say, okay which items don't i have and what's the ballpark for them? really a problem for people who invest in limited partnerships or hedge fund or private equity fund because if they didn't get the k-1s yet they either have to call to get projection of estimated taxable income and give. they may not be in the ballpark because all those funds, accelerated income. tracy: that is interesting. a lot of capital gains this year. what other things are people missing at bottom line? >> people often miss deductions right? they're not either quite sure what is deductible or there is not a great

record-keeping civil. income, w-2s, k-9s. nobody is adding deducts. you have to do that yourself. that is where people need to be vigilant. what i remind people about say for charitable, do you do volunteer work? you can't deduck the value of your time but any out-of-pocket expenses. driving a car. taking a taxi. paying for supplies. those are deductible. real estate taxes, if you bought or sold a home during the year, make sure you don't just look at the check you wrote to pay taxes but get out the closing statement and was there proration of real estate taxes on closing statement? did you refinance? did you pay points when you refinanced mortgage? look at your debt. can any of it be classified as not for personal use but for perhaps tied to make an investment? people don't often recognize that if you borrow to make investments, not only, using margin but if you took a line of credit on your home,

for example, and used it to make investments, that is tax deductible. so if people will have debt in their lives, good to set it up so that it is connected to making taxable investments. the only thing you can't deduct if you borrowed to invest in municipal bonds. that interest is not deductible. tracy: that is great tip. talk about 2013 now. a lot of things are changing. we've been hearing more and more too about people considering changing residence. state taxes are out of control. are you hearing that from your clients going forward? >> my clients are very much in tune there are taxes at the federal level certainly have gone up but what can they control? perhaps their state taxes. tracy: right. >> are they living in the right place? in a world where we rely now on technology, people feel like they can work for almost anywhere. they can work from home. they can work from a beach house. so i've been doing many analyses about what does it cost to move their business and or just personal residence to a different state? and what are the rules

around determining whether somebody's resident in a state? it is not as easy as people think. tracy: right. >> it is not just buy a property there and put that address on the return. states are very, very tough on people who change residency. they audit all the time. tracy: so total red flag? >> total red flag. and the burden is on the taxpayer to prove that they are not resident of a state and these audits are very intrusive in that they will ask for every credit card statement, every bank account, telephone bills. and they will map out based on that paper where you are each day of the year. guess what? if you're a state you don't have pay a lot of money to hire bunch of auditors to hire residency. this is not tax law. look at a cell phone bill to figure out where they are. not easy to do but people are legally looking at it. it is much more mobil society. so people do pick up and

move. tracy: you got to come back. we have to talk more about this. we talked about puerto rico as option. i heard of a family moving to texas the other day. more and more this is option for a lot of people. >> that's right. tracy: happy easter. >> you too, tracy. tracy: thanks for coming in. ashley: i want to work from a beach house. tracy: i'm telling you. i think we should do the show from there. ashley: get a satellite up. tracy: josh is coming. stage manager is coming. ashley: gas prices may be going up again. that is great news, isn't it? this time thanks to new government regulations. the story is ahead. tracy: how about this investment idea, wine futures? ashley: yes. tracy: wine retailer gary fisk tells us how to do it. he is coming up. ♪

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ashley: all sorts of nice today. the environmental protection agency announcing new standards for cars and gasoline. how much will they cut down on pollution? what cost to consumers? peter barnes in d.c. with details. peter? >> ashley, that's right. the epa says gasoline will clean up car emissions and better air and health but higher gasoline prices. according to the agency less than a penny a gallon. according to an oil industry

study, six to nine cents a gallon. the epa will hold public hearings on this post-election proposal. acting administrator says quote, these common sense cleaner fuels and car standards are another example of how we can protect the environment and public health in an affordable and practical way. but house republicans are upset with the propositively. they're planning to review it. critics and supporters are split over the economic impact. >> let's call it a time out. i think it is time for a time out and see what happens to gasoline prices and the economy before epa requires this very costly investment. >> when you require these refiners to do the upgrades that is a job creation investment. okay? this isn't some investment happening in china or india. it is investment happening in the united states. >> if, when, the rules are approved they would take effect in 2017.

ashley and tracy. ashley: we have been warned. peter barnes, thank you so much, peter. tracy: because if there is not enough pain at pump. we have breaking news for you the "wall street journal" reporting ge talked with dell about buying its finance unit. this is according to journal sources. the report also says ge is in direct talks with dell. they were separate from the blackstone discussions and ge talks with dell unfortunately failed to lead to a deal but they did talk about spinning off dell's finance division. they didn't want that. ashley: all sorts of back room stuff going on with dell. tracy: you ned a flow chart with this thing. ashley: you really do. tracy: this story though, pretty straightforward. how about this for a week. what a week for hedge fund giant steve cohen. starts with $200 million shopping spree. ends with one of his deputies in handcuffs. we'll have details ahead.

nicole: ashley: it is certainly the talker of the day. michael steinberg's arrest is just the latest in federal investigation in the hedge fund. we have been all over this story today. gerri willis is here to weigh in. gerri: first of all, drama, drama, drama. we saw the picture. i believe there was one "wall street journal" reporters there to document it. when you talk about insider

trades, this is a case you would write if you were trying to explain it to a classroom of kids. they are accused of taking earnings information. not an earnings statement or press release, but analysis from people who are very close to the company and trading on it. i think we talked about an analyst at sac. he gets this information to the portfolio manager. how do we know this? it is all in e-mails according to the sac. then this information gets put forward to another portfolio manager and steinberg writes normally, would never divulge data like this. be sure to be discreet.

tracy: for smart traders, they are dumb human beings. you do not do that. you do not do insider trading. gerri: a lot of people out there say this is a victimless crime. i do not agree. this company made $6 million on this one tiny bit of information. ashley: again, just validates peoples skepticism on what goes on on wall street. gerri: exactly right. exactly right. tracy: he is pleading not guilty. gerri: we will be talking about this tonight. we will be talking about the ways epa is looking to wrangle clean air out of gas. there will be a debate at the

top of the show about that we will be talking about one of the supreme court justices who lost his credit card. what do you do? ashley: that is interesting. tracy: wow. gerri: i have a case for you to take care of. that would be illegal. ashley: yes, it would. thank you for pointing that out. [ laughter ] tracy: consumer spending rose again last month. americans are feeling more confident about the economy. one independent, one industry independent on that is travel. tim schafer joining us now.

people make fun of me when say i love water parks. i am clearly not alone. there are a lot of water parks popping up all over the place. >> there are. it makes a lot of sense. i think it is a trend that will stay. tracy: the notion for many people, they don't have get on a plane. i am at the beach even though it is the dead of the winter. i can be and my bathing suit in january. does that age -- does that add to it? >> certainly. two or three days is a great amount of time for this type of a destination. it gives people a chance to have a full vacation and not have to

take all that time away from work or other things as well. tracy: you have to eat their cover the most part. it is not like you are giving away the farm by any stretch. you still have people coming. why is that, do you think? sometimes i walk out there thinking i just spent a lot of money. >> but you had a great time. i think that is what people are finding. you want the memories and you want the time. that has really been what we have been focused on. tracy: you are adding jobs. these are not necessarily management positions. we are talking about kids who

are lifeguards. >> we are busy. we are adding new attractions and new amenities and staying very busy. that does help add to the job market. we are in the service industry. we have to be thoughtful. how it will all play out with the health care, i think everyone is still trying to figure out. because we hire somebody part-time people, we do not think in our new industry that it affects people who have the year-round, full-time employment. tracy: kim schafer, thank you for taking the time to be with us today. >> sure. no problem. happy easter. tracy: it is easier to be private. ashley: it is. coming up, president obama's pick for labor secretary is

under heavy criticism. the "wall street journal" has been reporting for years. tracy: one of the busiest days of the year for honeybaked ham. jeff flock is in chicago with a preview. jeff: you have a good product when people are willing to stand in line on good friday to purchase it. we will be back to introduce you to the man whose grandfather invented the spiral ham slicer. i don't think you want to miss that, do you? ♪

♪

ashley: out the growing controversy over president obama's nominee for labor secretary. perez got the city of st. paul, minnesota, to withdraw a case. that is only the beginning. the "wall street journal" mary kissel has been reporting on this for years. she joins me now. the bottom line is, he was using muscle to have the course of justice altered. is that a good way of putting it? >> he used the law as a valuable

thing. especially when it does not agree with his principal. he was elevated at the justice department to a very high level. he went to banks and accused them of being racist. they settled. he went to the city of st. paul and says, if you withdraw the case, they will not touch chases against you. as you said, this week, this very week, the house democratic minority said they would release his statement to supply some context for this serious public accusations against him. what he did in this statement was basically admit to

everything that the "wall street journal" editorial page had written about him. ashley: that is insane. the process begins soon, doesn't it? >> he is expected to come up in front of the senate and a couple weeks. likely in april. it is flying under the radar. it is not just what he did with the supreme court case. he tried to put a predatory lending all in place that was entirely illegal. the court struck it down.

he is an activist, stretches of the law, fails, gets caught and just keeps moving up in the government didashley: the actuae justice department were brought into question. you have to think about the scope of what he did. he went to the department of justice. he went to the city of st. paul. he denied the supreme court a chance to rule on a legal principle. ashley: the president introduces this guy of a prime example.

>> he said he wanted could to issue a rule. if you could not get this case withdrawn, do not worry, there is another bureaucracy out there that will instruct what to do. ashley: we will follow this very carefully, indeed. mary kissel, thank you for being here. tracy: very interesting stuff. all right. i love this story. a staple of many american eastern dinners. the ham. jeff flock is at the store and rolling meadows, illinois. jeff: we love to bring you great american success stories.

take a look at port prices out there. they are low right now. look at the outline. isn't that something? think about where your hop producers are. can you believe the arkansas razorbacks? i was, $4.1 billion worth of pork. illinois, minnesota and montana. the man who founded this invented the first spiral ham slicer.

take a listen to the grandson of the man who invented the spiral ham slicer. >> people at the holiday times know it has been a tough year for them. they want to do the best thing for their family. they do not want to cut corners. they want to treat their family and their friends. they have been saving all year long. jeff: one final note to take away. it is not even close. the biggest poor producer in the world would be china. 49,000 tons last year. usa, 10,000.

tracy: happy easter, jeff. jeff: thank you. ashley: looking for an alternative investment? how about wine futures? find out how you can trade. tracy is over this story. ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] how could switchgrass in argtina, change engineering in dubai, aluminum production in south africa, and the aerospace industry in the u.s.? at t. rowe price, we understand the connections of a complex, global economy. it's just one reason over 75% of our mutual funds beat their 10-year lipper average. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. reque a prospectus or summary prospectus with investment information, risks, fees and expenses

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tracy: we know a lot of wine drinkers. we know a lot of people who want

to make money. entrepreneur also known as wine futures. bought and sold like other commodities. i guess you could say with less risk. founder and ceo of gary's marketplace. >> it is a liquid asset. tracy: basically, this wine is tested while it is still in the barrel. you send people out there. >> it is the 2012 from your. as a vintage, it was very difficult and challenging. they open up the château's, thousands of people from all over the world come. they taste the vintage. tracy: but i cannot go? >> wine journalists to go. they write about the vintage and talk about the vintage. starting may / june, they start releasing prices.

the château, after the feel of what is going on, the château's then pick the price. tracy: you payment and paid. this is a 99. the château can come out and charged top dollar. >> we are just starting to get into 2010. the nines are done. it is a long time to get it. the winds are not ready to drink. you want to save those for years. tracy: i went on your website. i picked a 2010 château. it was $2950. i buy this bottle today. i get it in three years. the assumption that bottle will be swirls and?

>> if you bought all five that you would pay $15,000. now it is worth $58,000. that is 287% increase. the dow has gone up 40% in that time. tracy: that is amazing. i trust that these guys know their wines. >> thattis the next point. you have to trust the reviewers. you really need to trust the merchant. you need somebody that you know will be there. you are writing a check for the wine. three years before it is coming.

tracy: i have to store it properly. >> correct. there are storage facilities or you have your own wine cellar. you need to keep it in temperature control. tracy: has hong kong and china screwed the pricing a little bit? >> they have destroyed the market. they are now coming out of the box $12,000 a catered case. we had a guy, he had a $60,000 purchase in 2009. it is worth $90,000 now. tracy: you have to check it out. i am so glad you are here. >> bankia for having me.

ashley: i think some wine under the bed is handy. [ laughter ] one fund manager helping you to put a little space back in your portfolio. liz claman is taking us through the last hour ofoi eating. ♪ i want to know exactly how much i'm paying. i want to use the same stuff the big guys use. find out why nine out of ten large professional investors choose ishes for their etfs. ishares by blackrock. call 1-800-ishares for a prospectus which includes investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. read and consider it carefully before investing. risk includes possible loss of principal.

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