dire warning from david stockman who says there is a fed bubble in the market, that is about to burst. lori: and we will discuss immigration reform. is congress about to make a deal? lou dobbs talks about it gaining traction. adam: fox business the only business networks to show you the arrest on friday. today we will show you what this means for steve cohen. lori: let's kick things off as we do with stocks now. checking in for the first time this hour with nicole petallides. the market starting a little lower here. nicole: that is right. the dow and the s&p each gained 10% in the first three months of 2013 pulling back a little bit on this first trading day of a new month and a new quarter. certainly coming off of the losses earlier today the dow and the s&p set some new highs

intraday. a record all-time intraday highs. so we did see some green on the screen. a little disappointing, we got in some construction numbers. china playing into this as well. intel and cisco couple of names to keep an eye on. securities downgraded intel. down 2.2% right now, some concerns of a delay in the profits bringing concern along with it. shares up one quarter of 1% as they raised their dividends and chief financial officers talking about strong position financially. back to you. lori: thank you. adam: david stockman issuing a dire warning in sunday's "new york times." a market crash is looming when the fed bubble burst.

there will be nothing, he says, to cushion the collapse. he sat down with stuart varney earlier this morning, here's what he says. >> what i do know is this market lives and dies by the last work of the fed and the people at the fed have no clue what they're doing. bernanke is the most dangerous man to ever hold high financial office in the history of the united states. adam: if you read that, he goes on to criticize everybody in washington. old clinical parties, our leadership, telling us they have been asleep at the wheel for decades. lori: there's a very strong argument in favor of bernanke and the fed that he has been masterful at guiding the u.s. economy out of the 2007 housing crash and especially if you look at one of the mandates, that is price control could haven't had a significant inflation. adam: do you remember those dire days in 2008, ben bernanke with

the economy. they say that was all hyperbole. he actually says we bailed out the big banks, but the community banks are not in danger of going belly up and says better to let the big guys go belly up, let the shareholders suffer the consequences and they would have been fine. he says that wouldn't have been a problem. lori: you have no bernanke knows he has to have an exit strategy, right? he took all the questions, managing exit strategy the other side of the argument will be a very controlled, managed, orderly exit to all of the monetary easing. it is a fascinating discussion and there should be a lot of discussion and concern about what happened when the punch bowl is removed. my next guest is not quite as doom and gloom about the market. urging them to remain cautious.

joining us with more on why he says a pullback is on the way. it is great to have you with us. let me get your take on this which has gone totally viral, the stock market opel similar to the 2007 housing crash with the bubble crash. you are expecting a pullback but not perhaps as dramatic and scary as he is calling for. >> absolutely. certainly don't see a crisis looming. the big risk to this market ends up being a mistake. we saw the hint of that, clearly the fed makes a mistake and really stops the stimulus too early, we will get a screeching halt to the economy and have a much bigger pullback. but we don't think that is going to happen. the fed will continue to pump

$85 billion. that is going to continue to keep this economy propped up until we get growth rates into the two an two and a half, threr range. lori: we know from his most recent comments they are working on an exit strategy, they know the fed has to be mindful of this. we have had a record low interest rates for years now, and there is a significant risk if they remove the punch bowl too quickly. are you confident bernanke will massage this? >> no, not completely confident, but it is a ways off. we have sometime to see what happens. at the end of the day there is so much stimulus that the economy has to get back, and growth rate 3% range. the fed can begin to pull out and we will survive on it. lori: the timeframe is where

stockton left us hanging. if you are not totally confide confident, that is what i am garnering from our conversation, the exit strategy skills or how he will go about doing that, what kind of a timeframe do you think this will all go down? >> i think it will be a slow, gradual process. i don't think it is anytime soon. it is going to be extremely slow, and what they are really looking for really is to make sure inflation stays low and employment continues to move higher. that is why the employment number coming up this week is really important. the market needs a goldilocks number. it gives an illustration of perhaps you have some coming from europe. if it is too good, that will raise concerns the fed will pull away from the punch bowl too soon. lori: i wanted to work in today's economic data.

still soft, but some economists say they support payroll growth, is that a goldilocks number in your view? >> i think the 200,000 number is a goldilocks number. it was disappointing. even the leading indicators were disappointing, but the employment number was pretty strong. still reports payrolls in the neighborhood of 200,000 plus. we think the upside is potentially higher than that. if you start to see a number above the upside of the range, in a 300,000 range or above, while that is a great number for our economy, it is a bad number for the market. lori: or investment strategy right now, know you said i in te past you think the market is overbought. what is your strategy from here, what do you think is ahead? >> every time you hear the word all-time high, that means record high prices. we will be really careful here.

we think there's a lot of value in the market long term. we have been selling into this rally slowly but surely. we have been raising cash taking money off the table. but give us a little bit of a pullback. lori: thank you. we will see you soon. adam: talking about commodities. stocks surging 10%. phil flynn of price futures group in the pits of the cme. oil prices are sliding after five straight days of gains. what gives? stocks are up? why are we seeing oil fall? phil: i think it is both. pegasus closing is a big thing. getting our new production of oil where it needs to be, getting it to the refiners and with the pipeline being out, the concern is that we'll build up supplies, but that might have changed in the last few minutes. we've seen gasoline gasoline and

heating oil exploded in the last five minutes. they are up almost $0.03 a second ago. heating oil up for cents on the day. maybe at one it is bearish oil, but it can be bearish product. we are seeing a reversal of the move. we are down over $1 at one point. starting to come back up. maybe they are shaking up the manufacturing stuff worried about supply. adam: are the hedge funds making a mistake? sounds like they might be making the right play. >> i think hedge funds are realizing the diversity between stocks and commodities are at their worst levels since 2008. stocks are overvalued, coming in it big way. it is not as much oil in the energy sector as it is natural gas. natural gas has come off of

historic lows, people are beginning to realize demand is growing pretty dramatically. i think a lot of money is looking for the cheap commodity on the street, that is bringing the commodity back. adam: thank you very much for joining us. lori: another chapter in the ongoing saga for struggling stockton, california. but will it be chapter nine? the judge ruling today. adam: and lou dobbs on the immigration debate as they promised a large hurdle to an immigration overhaul. lori: missing a pep in your step this monday? you may be able to blame your coffee. we will explain next.

adam: it is time to make some money with charles payne. this hour he is looking at making profits with protein. charles: eating chickens, that is right. the price of food is the play i like. ana near 52-week high. top of the market share with respect to chicken. 22% of the market, the top would be 41%, number two with reports obviously protein play all around. corn prices have come down, one of the things i have had somewhat is the operating margins the last couple of years. the stock probably would be worth more. that is the market share. operating margins. lori: look at the margins of pork.

that is huge. charles: the one that went up more than others. sometimes i look for an excuse to get people to buy a stock because unfortunately they will buy the food everyday, but heaven forbid they own the company. the larger, greater scheme of things, protein around the world is just amazing. lori: even these granola bars with protein packed, protein is the word of the moment. charles: chicken, brazil will have 2 million birds per week, india will have 450,000 birds per week, china will increase 50%. a huge market. adam: we just saw the reserves for corn. charles: the operating margin

expansion. adam: thank you very much. lori: time for another look at the market as we do, nicole and the floor of the new york stock exchange watching dell. nicole: a couple of names to keep an eye on. of course michael dell a big opponent of dell itself. now michael dell will only consider backing blackstone's bid if the firm guarantees he will stay on as the chief executive officer after doing some findings dell laid out the cover has a case for going private saying public was a worsening public outlook. not a good idea. of course blackstone, carl i can as well. adp shares to the downside. the company cfo is leaving. katherine nichols, the chief financial officer over at xerox,

she actually was not on that for a year. they have initiated a search for a new chief financial officer. up 41% this year. adt up about 3% this year. adam: something a lot of people love, coffee. some of us are very addictive. singleserve cups by green mountain roasters have grown to account for 26% of ground coffee sales in the usa according to data from nielsen's. for 12 weeks up to march 16 sales up 38% from the same time last year, but if you are in the need of a caffeine boost, look no further than starbucks. a 16-ounce cup has more than three times as much caffeine as a 16-ounce coffee from

mcdonald's. lori: that is news i will use. those singleserve cups are so popular you can buy the plastic cups and fill it with your own grounds. it is like $0.60 give or take. adam: but you have to buy the $100 machine for the joy. lori: that would prorate out so quickly. i have coffee next to me right now. that is my vice. it could be a lot worse. the crazy estate taxes you never heard of ahead. adam: the u.s. patent office rebuffed the tech giant could knonomini be a big problem? lori: the dollar off against the

euro. welcome to the new new york state.

what's the "new" in the new new york? a new property tax cap... and the lowest middle class income tax rate in 60 years... and a billion dollars in tax breaks and incentives. new opportunities for business. over 250,000 new private sector js were created over the last two years. and 17 straight months of job growth. with the most private sector jobs ever. lower taxes, new incentives, new jobs, now that's news. to grow or start your siness in the new new york visit thenewny.com you are gonna need a wingman. and my cash back keeps the party goin but my airline miles take it worldwide. [ male announcer ] it shouldn't be this hard. with creditcards.com, it's easy to search hundreds of cards and apply online. creditcards.com.

>> 22 minutes past the hour, this is your fox news minute. prosecutors in colorado city will seek seek the death penalty against james holmes last year's attack in a movie theater. the former graduate student accused of killing 12 people and wounding 70 during a packed midnight screening of "the dark knight rises" on july 20. one forest officials across texas are on high alert after the d.a. and wife were found shot to death in their home on saturday. it comes to months after one of the assistant d.a.'s was gunned down. security has been increased at the county courthouse where he worked. and on a lighter note, president obama and his family welcomes thousands of children to the white house for the annual easter egg roll. kids enjoyed chocolate and chili beans and easter but the first healthy eating habits.

those are your news headlines. lori: you can't have easter without that. thank you. stockton, california, waiting to hear federal judge will allow it to become the most populous city in the united states to go bankrupt. stockton was hit hard by the foreclosure crisis and owes money to the public employees retirement system to cover pension promises. the city cut a quarter of the police force and more than $90 million off of its budget over the last three years. these cuts not enough to pay off all the debt. a three-day trial took place last week with a long line of creditors are going stockton has not cut enough spending or increase taxes in order to pay back its debts. another city, san bernardino, is in bankruptcy. adam: we will continue to see that. we're going to turn our

attention to somebody else in trouble. steve cohen, as criminal charges have been pressured against a top official. we were there when he got arrested, but what evidence do we know so far may be brought forward the government will use against him? liz: this is a developing story. who can the government gets to slip? whether they can get michael steinberg to flip, there is nine current and former employees. four of them are cooperating. michael steinberg today is pleading not guilty. the insider's game, 276 million, way more than what is at issue here. with michael steinberg. i want to zero in according to law enforcement authorities,

they were zeroing in on e-mails. that is these damning e-mails have popped up already. this is what is at issue. you can see an e-mail from the tech analyst portfolio manager who says i have a secondhand read from somebody at the company, meaning tha dell. by the way, it is saying this is a third-quarter i have got to misread from dell. this e-mail went out to michael steinberg to be extra sensitive, please keep that stuff on the down low. let's go to the next level of e-mails you will see here, e-mails from michael steinberg. normally we would not divulge data about this information so please be discreet, thanks.

these e-mails came in and around the earnings report and what happened was the sec d. 600,000 shares in dell before the earnings release. the stock eventually had a negative read on the earnings sf the stock plunged 13%, so these e-mails are key. adam: those e-mails look kind of week. you'd expect them to be discussed in dell, that does not say anything about any relevant information. and you always want to be sensitive. liz: this is the third quarter i've got married from them, very good info. so they traded on that info. they acted on it. why was it on the down low if it was investor relations. if it was above ground. that is what a judge said, why is this on the download of it

came from investor relations. that is why it is so fascinating. we will continue on this throughout the day. lori: lou dobbs with big business, compromise seems to be forming quickly but some say the president needs to back off to get republicans to jump on board. adam: is there a fed bubble about to come crashing down? we will get lou dobbs take on that one as well. lori: check out who is up, who's down. we are back in a moment.

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lori: your money is trying to make some positive feigns here. we'll go back to the floor of the new york stock exchange and nicole petallides to see if we possibly go positive on the dow, nicole. >> you possibly can. we're only a few points away, adam, as you noted. down six points on the dow jones industrials. we certainly went back and forth. we started with all-time intraday record high for the dow only to see it dip. we got weak ism numbers. that weighed into the markets. the vix, the fear index has been to the upside all day long. we want to look at one name on the move. hess, shares are jumping to a new annual high. highest levels since summer of 20 very much enas they make a -- 2011. as they make a sale to lukoil. this is $2 billion deal. they're trying to use the proceeds of the sale to return capital to shareholders.

the shareholders are very loud lately talking about the fact they would like to see more shareholder value, and including splitting the company. this is some of the clamor from shareholders. this hopefully returns shareholder value for them. adam: thank you very much, nicole. lori: i am my mitigation reform clearing a -- immigration clearing a major hurdle. what had been one. biggest stumbling blocks. the agreement would allow between 20,000 and 200,000 illegal immigrants to come to the u.s. in low skilled jobs. marco rubio said a compromise on this important legislation is quote, premature. now for lou dobbs. >> hello. lori: where are we on this? are we more with marco rubio. >> i'm absolutely marco rubio on this he is the only adult as far as i can tell using independent judgment about very important issues which is after all the responsibility of the senate. to, i mean, think about this. everybody is all excited about an agreement between

the afl-cio and the u.s. chamber of commerce as if they're ex officio branches of government here. i hope ex officio. they are, absolutely, in control here. not the senate. not the congress and not, well, the president who obviously is in control because he is driving the agenda. but we're not having anything of a public hearing. the last people that will be consulted here, american people and citizens and they're getting away with it. if it not were the leadership of marco rubio in particular here, i don't know what would happen because these, these senators are sayings, and by the way, i talked to a number of people on my broadcast. some of the best and the brightest in the country and they say, well, you know as long as we get the result we need here it is okay if you don't have open meetings, open hearings, full disclosure, and a process that brings the american people in.

in other words, a rerun of obamacare, 2009-2010, is fine with them. and look at the disaster it is. adam: we have to move onto a headline a lot of people are talking about. the stockman in the op-ed of "new york times" and on mr. varney's show. >> mr. varney. adam: mr. varney. call him other things personally you about that sendly to his face. the deal in washington, says a plague on everyone's house, ben bernanke, both political parties. we have a sound bite what he had to say. >> sure. adam: want to get your reaction. >> what i do know this market lives and dies by the last word of the fed and the people at the fed have no clue what they're doing. bernanke is the most dangerous man ever to hold high financial in the history of the united states. >> well, i think that there may be some hyperbole there as david stockman is wont to offer. are there issues?

absolutely. is the money supply, you know, and, and, the balance sheet larger than we would like to see? absolutely. but without it, we would have, i think, a round of deflation the likes of which would be crippling. we've got to maintain some perspective and david stockman is a bright guy. he knows better than this. lori: why is he such a doom sayer? why he is trying to get everyone to run to the exits? >> that is great question, lori. it is impossible for me to say what his motive is and tell you why it is appearing in some places across the web, being picked up and driven because the shorts are desperate right now. we're looking at these indexes, averages and prices so high the shorts are getting killed. adam: isn't his motivation though, he is a debt hawk. he hates debt. he hated debt in the '80s when he resigned from the reagan administration. >> having left a lot of debt. adam: having left a lot of debt but blaming president reagan. but he is, what he is saying

the motivation is the federal reserve pumping money is allowing congress to go on drunken sailor spending spree. no offense to drunken sailors. >> the two are utterly unrelated. fed is moving at his pace and approach. bernanke is entirely possible for monetary policy. congress is responsible for fiscal policy and this president. what we're witnessing a president and compliant congress moved ahead over $5.6 trillion over the course of the last four budgets. this is unconscionable. adam: stockton is agreeing with you on that front. >> we agree but there is nothing mysterious about this. this is the reality that we've been confronted. and when you have a body politic and a compliant and complicit press that was once a watchdog that now says, oh, it is mr. obama, without any kind of, without any kind of critical judgment on the policies that we're pursuing, and

fiscal policy, then you have to throw your hands up. this is a matter that has to be resolved in the next election. if the republicans remain so inert, so unimaginetive, so unenergized, and lacking the capacity to go out and build up a party that can win on the ground, not just simply buy more pac advertising, then we're doomed. we are literally. adam: you agree with him. that is he is saying. >> no, no. we're doomed, let me finish the sentence, we're doomed to see another round of democratic spending and irresponsibility when it comes to the national debt. the nation is not doomed, you know. at some point we are, if we were to follow this policy of period of time pet wall debtor nation forever but, you know, we're far from that. i'm still hopeful the republicans will have the guts and brains, mustard,

maybe they are cloistered somewhere, it will be a big surprise in 2014. we'll see their brains revealed, their intelligence, their imagination. right now we're desperate for leadership of any kind in eitter party. we have a president who has just basically decided that his deal is, he is 1% of the 1% and he is going to take the family on vacations. he is going to enjoy life. and he is not going to work very hard. this president is not working very hard. he blathers about gun control. he blathers about comprehensive immigration reform and talks about neither in the national interest or according to the traditional and important values of this nation. the republicans, you know, they're all about money. they want to talk about budgets. they want to talk about debt. they want to talk david stockman's stuff. they have got to learn there is something here besides money. there's a a nation and the requirement for a vision and a spobs to challenges to other values and the republicans are laying down right now. they have been defeated in

two presidential elections. they may well be defeated in the next midterm 2014. if so, then we're going to start moving toward that --. we will cross that penumbra between we are and what david stockman is predicting. lori: i have to look that up. >> moving from the light to the dark. or reverse. it is dividing line. lori: no one says it more than eloquently than lou dobbs. 7:00 and 10:00 eastern. bob doll, nuveen asset management is lou's debt. he will discuss the market and these records after that last week. adam: cryptic announcement from facebook has the rumor mill in motion. is a facebook phone on the way? lori: please no. beat tale mania, autographed copy of sergeant pepper's

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what's in your wallet? [ crows ] now where's the snooze button? >> i'm lori rothman with your fox business brief. a court victory today for

barry diller and his live tv streaming service that retransmits local tv to subscribers. an appeal court denied booed cast terse request for a preliminary injunction to shut down the service. the suit alleges that it is violating copyright law. fox news, is one of the plaintiffs in that lawsuit. a 2.2% surge in home construction which rose to the highest level in more than four years. american greetings is being taken private by the white family for $18.20 in cash and nearly 27% premium over the class-a shares close on september 25th. that is when the family first proposed to acquire the company. that is the latest from the fox business network, giving you the power to prosper.

adam: they say money can't buy me love but some collectors might disagree. a rare copy of the beatles record "sgt. pepper's lonely hearts club band" autographed all four band members shattered expectations. iconic album listed for $30,000 but sold more than $290,500 with to unidentified bidder with a big smile. the autographs obtained in 1967s same day the album was issued. this is one of the top items of beatles memorabilia in existence. lori: i didn't know you were a fan of the antique's road show. adam: $250,000 i would have gotten a studebaker or a lot less. nicole petallides, we thought we might go positive but we pulled back from that opportunity, haven't we? >> moulson coarse is getting positive comments from. moulson coors considered one of the most unloved stocks

in consumer staples. they are seeing up side potential here. stock is up 5%. stock hitting a new 52-week high. raised rating to a buy from neutral. up from 47 bucks. citing rising beer volumes in north america and new product cycles. goldman sachs hot on moul soon soars. back to you. adam: thank you very much, nicole. lori: shibani joshi is here with more. facebook may be a getting a lift. >> along with apple tv this fabled facebook phone is one of the most highly hyped and highly anticipated things we've yet to see materialize in many, many years. you tell me what you think we'll get out of facebook coming up on thursday? this is the invitation i got on thursday. knight inviting me to come and see our new home on android. that is what facebook is inviting members of the media to coming this thursday at the company's headquarters. everyone is wondering will this be the new facebook

phone. the question is why does the company want to release a phone in the first place? well a billion users is a reason why. the company has a lot of traction and a lot of, a lot of loyalty with its users. new study out by ibc last week actually showed that facebook mobile users checked their mobile status on their phone 14 times per day and within 15 minutes of waking. so what could this facebook phone look like? some of the rumored status updates that we could see is a phone made by htc including a facebook operating system, free calls and texts through facebook messenger. discuss onized version of the android operating system and 4.3-inch screen. it will be a welcome news for investors. the stock is down 32% since going public last summer. everybody is waiting for the promise of mobile to actually come to fruition. so facebook phone may be here. thursday we'll figure it all

out. lori? lori: all right, shibani. we saw the app on all of our phones for facebook so. adam: i'm thinking 14 times a day that is kind of like old "star trek" line, get a life. 14 types a day is a lot. don't want to offend any facebook users. underpromise and overdeliver. sac -- s&p capital christine will join us why second quarter out put will wow the street. lori: we still have winners on the session. we're showing you some of them right now. back after this. lcome to the new new york state.

what's the "new" in the new new york? a new operty t cap... and the lowest middle class income tax rate in 60 years... and a billion dollars in tax breaks and incentives. new opportunities for business. over 250,000 new private sector jobs were created over the last two years. and 17 straight months of job growth. with the most private sector jobs ever. lower taxes, new incentives, new jobs, now that's news. to grow or start your business in the new new york visit thenewny.com

adam: investors are holding their breath for first-quarter earnings. you remember when you were a kid you hold your breath a bit long and you would get dizzy, that might be happening to investors.

earnings season we'll kick off next week. the bar has been set low, really low by wall street. consensus estimate for first-quarter earnings growth is dreary half a percent. don't worry yet. my next guest says the predictions are artificially low, incredibly low. wall street trying to underperform and overly perform when they report. joining to us discuss this, christine short senior manager for s&p capitalism q. we see this game played every quarter, don't we? >> every quarter. we finally went back and looked over the last quarter and what is the difference. three to four weeks before earnings season. we see artificially low estimate by analysts. on average that number ticks up 4% by the time things are all said and done. investors look at .5%. they're getting a little sppoked. ultimately historical trend are upheld we'll see four to 5% growth by the end of the season. adam: with which would counter some of the things we're hearing from analysts which say we're expecting a pullback in stocks. earnings will not be there

the way we expected. are those people telling us that are buying into this, underperforming attitude which proves to be wrong it seems all the time? >> depends which sector you look at. certainly sectors are expected to do less well than others. if you look at the historical trend, especially last three or four years, analysts really set the bar pretty low and every season, we see, companies end up beating. companies, 68% of the companies beat first quarter estimates. 19 companies have reported. that is quite higher than the overall historical 10-year average of 62%. we are seeing beat rates higher and higher. adam: why to investors fall for the beating 68% of the estimates? >> source of habit. we have to pay attention to the estimates, right? >> what we've got. that is the data in front of us. >> we'll use what we have. if you keep in mind typically by the end of the season it ends up getting that much better, analysts or companies being beat. adam: which sectors are most accurate farce what we'll be going forward for strong earnings growth?

is it going to be tech? >> i don't think it will be tech this quarter. last quarter we saw strength in i-t. this quarter we're looking at consumer discretionary. for a lot of different reasons, pay attention to retail sales numbers. retail sales quite strong. consumer confidence the last reading was the highest throughout the rrcovery. we're seeing very healthy consumer out there. again driven by a couple industry than it was in the former quarter. household durables. we're seeing homebuilders, lennar knocking it out of the park when they reported. expecting d.r. horton. pulte homes also doing very good. textiles and apparel retailers are getting it. they're expecting to up double-digits in the first quarter. expecting industries projections to be driving. adam: going forward tax returns coming in. refunds come in. people might spend money. what sectors will live up to the underperformance? who will be a dog? >> looking at energy. they're down about 2 into 7%. energy costs are very high

it is year-over-year comparison. difficult comparisons for last year. for instance a barrel of oil on average was $95 in the first quarter of this year, versus 103 last year. that is why the decline. adam: christine short, thank you very much for joining us on fbn. we'll be watching. >> thanks very much for having me. lori: we had a lot of fun on april fool's edition of markets now. believe it or not this is the real list of weirdest state taxes you may never have heard of. get this, new york charges 8 cents on altered bagels. adam: i smear. >> kansas has a sales tax of 6.3% on all hot-air ballon amusement rides but only if the balloon is tied to the ground. because unattached balloon rides count as transportation and therefore taxing them. adam: also known has aer. lori: you have to have llx to make it aer. ? adam: especially in kansas. lori: connecticut, built in tax on all children's diapers 6.3%.

adult diapers, adam, untaxed. news you kang use. just kidding. >> in about 30 years. thank you very much. all right, coming up, we're going to be here at 5:00. i will host money for melissa francis. she has a day off. jeremy siegel, wharton professor of finance will discuss the fed's market friendly exit strategy. siegel says the banks should raise reserves 8%. uh-huh. as high as 15% which will happen when the fed ends its easing policy. that is tonight 5:00 p.m. eastern. lori: couple hours before the closing bell. keep it here. waiting on a critical bankruptcy ruling on stockton, california. fox judicial analyst judge andrew napolitano says this case is unprecedented. he will join tracy byrnes and ashley webster here on fox business.

tracy: happy monday, i'm

tracy byrnes. ashley: i'm ashley webster. is the market record run a bubble about to pop? former reagan budget director david stockman says yes and a collapse is coming and time to hide out in cash but is he right on the money we'll talk with one top strategist who says, no way. that's coming up. tracy: a critical bankruptcy ruling on stockton, california, could come any minute. fox news's judge andrew napolitano will tell us how the case will impact cities pensions around the country. ashley: small business, big ideas. we'll meet the founder of one health food snack maker making pretty healthy profits being way ahead of the gluten-free craze. tracy: they're so good too. top of the hour. time for stocks. we go down to nicole petallides. stocks off the worst levels of the day, nicole but you know, we're still in the red. >> we are indeed after a great first quarter for all the bulls out there looking at new highs. we set record intraday highs for the dow jones industrial

average. only to pull back. the vix, the fear index is has been to the upside all day, showing trepidation. people are nervous here. we've seen the vix up about 8%. the dow right now is down about 14 points. it has been about a 75-point swing from top to bottom today. our record intraday high today was 14,605. the s&p 500, it should be noted, it too hit a multiyear intraday high. not quite the all-time intraday high. not yet at least for bulls out there who are hoping. we heard a lot of people raising targets to the end of the year, brokers that is. let's look here at something else on the move that is the dow jones industrials over the last three months. when we talk about the first quarter which we have completed we saw the dow and s&p both gaining 10% for the first quarter. but the trading day of the new month, new quarter, down arrows are across the board at least for the moment. back to you. tracy: nicole, see you in 15 minutes. we have breaking news. actually good news. check out the photo of kevin

ware as he begins to recover from last night's horrific on court incident of the as you all may know or probably do know at this point, ware broke his leg in last night's louisville win over duke. man, it was, ugly at best, right? louisville athletic department tweeted out this photo of wear standing up on crutches. he had a two-hour surgery after the bone basically just came right out of his leg, right? ashley: just horrific. absolutely horrific. tracy: poor kid. ashley: but he is standing, look at that that is amazing. tracy: he asked his team to go on and did and they did. ashley: that is good news. former budget director david stockman says the coming collapse is coming. he says the market has a flood of what he calls phony money. stockman talked with fox business's stuart varney today and took direct aim at federal reserve chairman ben bernanke. >> this market lives and dies by the last word of the fed and the people at the

fed have no clue what they're doing. bernanke is the most dangerous man ever to hold high financial office in the history of the united states. ashley: what do you really think? are equities in a bubble that is about to burst? that is a big question. let's bring in margie patel and managing director and senior portfolio manager of wells capital management. many peel say the fed poured all the cheap money in. it hasn't done a whole lot. banks are not lending. economy is has tepid growth at best. is this a bubble waiting to burst? what do you think? >> no. i think equity values look pretty reasonable because corporations look very sound. their ability to generate cash and increase cash as the economy grows. so i think stocks will continue to surprise on the upside. tracy: we've said this here before. you kind of got to be in it to win it, right? regardless of why the market is up, it is up and people on the sidelines are missing out, aren't they? >> yeah.

even if you just looked at stocks by their ability to throw off dividend, cash, back to shareholders, it is above the 10-year treasury. because companies have been withholding cash and hoarding it really, they have the ability to increase dividend even if their earnings stay flat. so i think that you have to be pretty optimistic about the valuations, the price earnings ratio, the free cash flow multiples when you look at stocks. ashley: margie, the dow is up 11% so far this year. s&p 10%. are corporate earnings the next catalyst for the market's move? if that is the case, where do they move, up or down? >> i think earnings are going to continue to move up and certainly as we start to see earnings reports come through, for the first quarter, i'm sure there will be disappointments here and there. some sectors here and there. i think on balance they show the ability of corporations to be very, very flexibility in expanding markets.

in holding costs in line and that will enable them to continue to have cash flow that makes it very attractive for investors. i don't see a bubble. certainly not on the equity side. tracy: let's make money. where should we put it? we have got to get in this. you have been a big proponent of shale gas companies. which ones in particular? >> i think really the whole group is a attractive. companies on the e&p side that have been very successful in finding particularly the liquids, companies, such as, range or eog. i think they have had a good track record, i think companies building out infrastructure to store and treat and move, shale gas and liquids from where they're found to either users or, to, a big source, which will be exporting lng. that would be companies like williams brothers, kinder morgan, companies like that part of the whole buildout of the infrastructure. ashley: do you like the financials margie? are you concerned about

dodd-frank and, the volcker rule, what that will do to the bottom line and profits of these banks? >> i think there is some value in the banks. i was very cautious about the banks because they seem to be under endless assault by, various regulatory bodies but i think finally that the government will come around and realize in order to make the economy grow you have to take the, take the weight off the banks and allow them to lend. there have been a lot of restrictions held back lending to the corporate sector. and also, i think that reits will continue to be a pretty attractive sector. they have the ability to profit by irvery low rates to continuously refinance their debt to lower levels, increasing cash flow and dividends. ashley: much more positive view of the market. thanks so much, margie patel with wells capital management. as always, thank you. tracy: yeah, the bears are right eventually. ashley: well, that's right. eventually they're going to get it right. tracy: i don't know. i though, will not.

federal net tightening around billionaire hedge fund titan steve cohen as criminal insider trading charges were leveled against the top lieutenant at sac capital. liz macdonald is here. what do we know so far? >> what we know so far to date four sac executives, former and current are cooperating with the federal authorities. michael steinberg is pleading not guilty to total of five counts, four securities fraud, one conspiracy. he faces at least 20 years in prison. what we know at this hour the government is trying to get michael steinberg possibly to turn state evidence against steven cohen. this is according to the law enforcement authorities. so this is the issue. will he flip? will michael steinberg flip? we've been reporting this all day. i'll tell you something, matthew mart toma at sac capital, former exec, had bigger insider trading profit, 276 million, accused of steinberg, 1.4 billion. he did not turn to flip to

the state to help him out. there are individual cooperating with federal authorities. what is key is, we've been reporting this all day. we reported this story out on friday ahead of everybody else. ashley: right. >> there are these e-mails at issue. we only have the tip of the iceberg of e-mails. here is series of them. you're going to see, this is from john horvath, tech analyst at sac capital talking to portfolio manager in an e-mail. i have a secondhand read from someone at the company, dell. he is also saying in the same e-mail, this is irk this i've gotten this read from dell and very good information last quarter saying, be extra sensitive with this info. this is horvath to michael steinberg in an e-mail. also telling steinberg to please keep the dell stuff especially on the down low. these e-mails went out before dell's earnings report in august of 2008. the stock eventually cratered by 30%. prior to that insiders at sac capital basically unloaded 600,000 shares. call them insiders because that is what the government

is calling them. now you will see michael steinberg e-mails. talking about dell trade. yes, normally we would never divulge data like this so please be discrete. thanks. talking to steve cohen about dell earlier today. this is tip of the iceberg, what fox business is hearing there are more e-mails to come whether or not we have wiretaps. >> smart with money. why are they putting this on e-mail for crying out loud? this is insane. >> this is just 2008. they're looking 2008, 2009, 2010, insider trades allegedly at sac capital. tracy: do you think we'll have a sammy "the bull" gravano out of this? someone will sing? >> that is the question. we're seeing tech analysts --. tracy: everybody sings for a price eventually. lizzie mack, thank you, good story. >> sure. tracy: lizzie covered it on friday all day. good stuff. ashley: coming up, waiting on a critical bankruptcy ruling on stockton, california. it could impact cash-strapped cities and

pensions around the country. fox news analyst judge an draw napolitano breaks down the case for us. tracy: leaders reach a deal on immigration reform. those are strange bedfellows. will congress sign off and how will it impact business. that is coming up. as we do every day this time of day let's look how oil is trading. oil is slightly down 40 cents. $96.84 a barrel. we'll be right back welcome to the new new york state.

what's the "new" in the new new york? a new property tax cap... and the lowest middle class income tax rate in 60 years... and a billion dolls in tax breaks and incentives. new opportunities for business. over 250,000 new private sector jobs were created over the last two years. and 17 straight months of job growth. with the most private sector jobs ever. lower taxes, new incentives, new jobs, now that's news. to grow or start your business in the new new york visit thenewny.com tracy: time to make some money. charles payne here at this hour. calling all profits in the domestic economy. charles? >> i haven't pulled the trigger yet but i wanted to share what i'm looking at most more than anything else today, that is magic jack. it's a smaller play but everyone knows the name obviously. ashley: yeah. >> the symbol is call. i typically hate a cute symbol.

tracy: i know you do. market cap, under 300 million? >> right. tracy: got to be clear about that. >> i said, it is higher than normal risk idea but it is a name that everyone knows. here is the conundrum with the company. they're doing extraordinarily well in that space but that space continues to shrink, you know, the phone business but, you know they have got some other things. trying to use magic jack as server, 4 g hot spot. they say they have a amazing pipeline of products. they delayed this announcement which put some pressure on the stock. last two earnings reports were absolutely phenomenal. last one, the third quarter, they had record revenues and profits, income, x items. they're making a lot of money. they're carving out a huge space for themselves s. one of these things, can they continue to do well, something where the overall, can you be 800-pound gorilla in a market that continues to shrink? they report after the bell. i will look at volume tomorrow. probably look at

determination. if think close above 1490 on a closing basis. that is technical point of view something of a buy signal. if the street likes the number, the stock could pop. to your point, a small cap name. what is still falling. but one really very intriguing and today, friday. acting really well like it wants to go much higher. tracy: you're saying 14.90? >> between now and tomorrow. if it picks up momentum tomorrow from today, lime looking mostly at volume. tracy: is it buyout candy? >> i don't think it is a buyout candidate. it is one of the name with tremendous breadth of clients. if it finds out ways to exploit that this stock will have another leg. of course it is killing in competition but --. tracy: got to figure it out. >> got to figure it out. tracy: charles payne, thanks for watching that thank you. ashley: all right. quarter past the hour, time to check on these markets. nicole petallides on the floor of the new york stock exchange. nicole, the dow struggling to get back to the water mark i guess you could say?

>> that's right. you know the bulls can't give up hope just yet. had a great first quarter. today is back and forth action down just 11 points. looking at two movers, ashley and tracy. start off with game stop. gamestop was saying they would have weak sales. they came out with great sales. beat the street. quarterly numbers beat the street. gave outlook that really was a good one. also incorporated a lot of talk about new microsoft console. sony console, game consoles. that may be hot for holidays. the stock is up 7% it hiing a new high. look at ebay. ebay certainly one to watch here. year-to-date it's a inwither. the company expects annual earnings growth of 15 to 19% over the next three years. they're giving projections that are very optimistic, and really above the market for ebay shares, up along with it. up about 3 1/2% today. ashley: nice move. nicole, thank you very much. we'll be back in 15 minutes. tracy: crunch time for american companies deciding how they're going to

implement obamacare. up next, payroll giant adt tells us many factors that companies have to consider before making these tough decisions. ashley: first, take a look how the good ol' u.s. dollar is moving right now. it is moving lower. only one of these currencies, the peso is lower. everyone else making ground on the dollar today even the euro, embattled euro back up to 1.2855. we'll be right back friday nightbuddy. you are gonna need a wingman. and my cash back keeps the party going. but my airline miles take it worldwide. [ male announcer ] it shouldn't be this hard. with creditcards.com, it's easy to search hundreds of cards and apply online. creditcards.com.

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>> at 20 minutes past the hour, i'm lauren green with your fox news minute. prosecutors wants james holmes executed for last year's attack in an aurora, colorado, movie theater. they announced their intention to seek the death penalty against holmes in court this morning. he is charged with multiple counts of murder and attempted murder for the july 20th assault on a midnight screening of the dark night rises. it killed 12 people and injured 70. pentagon said the u.s. sent f-22 fighter jets to take part in war games with south korea in another show of fire power in north korea. they said the drills are part of preparation for invasion. u.s. sent b-2 stealth bombers to south korea last week. it is baseball's opening day.

but the season got underway last night. for now at least there is joy in houston the worst team in the majors the past two years, the houston astros, beat the texas rangers, 8-2. and those are your news headlines. on the fox business network. back to tracy. tracy: quite happy with baseball season. that will mean it will be warm soon. >> oh, yeah. tracy: health care costs continue to voor -- soar, to are issues for small businesses. should they continue to provide insurance or send employees for their own policy? we have the head of services for adp right now. i can't even imagine if i were a small business what i would be thinking. i was telling you this stat. 58 million paperwork burdened hours according to the american action forum. this is how many hours of paperwork, 30,000 employees needed just to file this stuff. >> it is a tremendous burden for employers, for employees, for the government.

i think we'll get through it. like with medicare, it will be 10 years before we get through it. tracy: that is comforting by the way. i'm an employer. what do i need to know? >> if you have more than 50 full-time equivalents as of january 1st, you need to provide insurance coverage to all employees. second, your part-timers, today you might need part-timers, and not provide insurance, if there were 32, 34 hours. as of january 1st, minimum 30 hours of employment the must provide insurance coverage. thirdly, most importantly, the insurance coverage has to be not too expensive for imply east to cover. 9.5% of income is a threshold. you can trigger fines if your insurance coverage is too rich. tracy: you as a benefits services provider, what are you doing to help these people? are you helping me with the my payroll checks? are you helping me with other paperwork because there is lot of it? >> adp does all of those

things. we do payroll. we do benefits. time tracking and reporting. we do leaves management of the all issues which really surround the whole question of health care, compliance, reporting to the government are all things that we provide. today what we're doing is getting all of the sieves ready. tracy: sarbanes-oxley all over again, isn't it? >> it is. tracy: as on employee when i did my tax return this year on my w-2 was the amount of paid for my insurance by news corp. i saw that this year. what else coming forward will i have to look for? >> well, you are going to have to buy insurance or pay a fine. so as of january 1st you need to be ready if you work for employer with more than 50 employees. again you need to buy insurance. you need to think now if you haven't bought insurance in the past, what are the implications? what can you afford. you can't see these programs yet. ex-changes are being set up. tracy: exchanges right. >> they are being set up now. so you really can't see coverage and pricing yet. that will become clear this fall but, you need to be prepared if you have not

purchased insurance before, if you have been eligible but made a decision not to purchase, you will be facing a choice, do i buy insurance now or pay a penalty. tracy: this was reported to irs, isn't it. >> it is. tracy: there are forms out. like, are you finding that small businesses hiring someone to take care of this administrative stuff? >> it is a big burden. small businesses are dealing with implications to get ready for this. we don't see small businesses hiring people per se. we see them worrying. tracy: sure. >> doing a lot of things to get ready. large businesses do have more capacity to hire people to administer. many people are outsourcing. tracy: which, helps you in your stock i guess. someone has to benefit from this catastrophe. at least we can buy your stock, tim, take advantage. >> please do. >> thank you very much. mon necessarily, administrative nightmare. ashley: it is. someone will have to do it and someone will benefit. latest on immigration reform. this is interesting.

the chamber of commerce reached between business and labor negotiators is structure they can move forward with. peter barnes live from desigh with the latest developments on this story, peter? >> i hope they move forward since they negotiated the deal. this is breakthrough came in compromise this weekend on the touchy issue of lower paid, lower skiiled guest workers. labor unions do not want easy visas for temporary workers in industries like hospitality, restaurants and construction. they want to protect jobs and wages of course. business, had been pushing for 400,000 guest worker visas each year but in negotiations between the afl-cio and the u.s. chamber of commerce, they settled on phasing in more visas, starting with 20,000 more in year one, rising to 75,000 in year four and after that, a maximum of 200,000 a year under a many could plex formula. as you said, the chamber said, quote, this is a

structure we can move forward with. the deal allows bipartisan group of eight senators to finalize legislation on a immigration reform bill that would provide a path to citizenship for the nation's 11 million illegal aliens. the white house is waiting. >> we're not there yet. and this process is still underway in the senate. legislation has to be written, drafted and we will evaluate the specific aspects of that legislation when it is produced. >> now, a key republican member of the group of eight, conservative marco rubio of florida, said in a statement, quote, i'm encouraged, however reports that the bipartisan group has agreed on a legislative proposal are premature. republicans are demanding that any deal include significant certifiable, improvements in border security. ashley? ashley: all right. we'll see. peter barnes in d.c. thank you. >> you bet. tracy: all certifiable.

all right. jcpenney shares down nearly 60% from their 52-week high. will a critical launch this week finally shift the momentum at this troubled retailer? i don't know. gerri willis is on the story next. ashley: heard that before. first let's take a look at some of today's winners and losers on the s&p as we head to the break. the dow just below the water mark but we to have some winners out there. gamestop a big winner today. we'll be right back.

in it is half past the hour. that dow of about 18, 19 points. let's head to the floor of the new york stock exchange. nicole petallides is standing by. nicole: we have some winners and losers on the dow jones industrials today. what do you make of today? >> we kind of comment on this lackluster day today. european markets are closed. i do not think we are seeing a lot of trading on this first day. i think a lot of people will wait and see how quarter starts off. i think people are a little

skeptical right now today what they will do with their money coming into the second quarter. if we continue to see the market moved higher and higher, money off the sidelines will come in. nicole: if we continue to run up our money comes in to chase the market. >> absolutely. you may say that come back in. nicole: you do not want to miss out. that is for sure. friday's jobs report will be key. back to you. ashley: thank you. oil closing down, as you can see, $0.16 on the day. today's loss snaps five straight days of gains for oil. it is still pretty high at $97 a

barrel. tracy: jcpenney getting ready to launch the first of its new home goods boutiques this front. gerri willis? really? gerri: how many cakes at the candy you actually get? i know what will happen, they won't fire him and give him $25 billion. six years ago, it was 21% of sales. they are trying to reignite this business. there is no martha in this conversation she is in a big dispute with them.

under ron johnson, jcpenney traffic has gone into the toilet. revenues are down 25%. customer traffic down 13%. they had everyday low prices. they never ever, ever, ever have a sale. they would market up and work it down. he had a pedigree because he came out of apple stores. that was considered brilliant. he also worked at target, do not forget. that is much more similar. he had the pedigree. the question was whether he should actually do something that jcpenney. tracy: customers are much older than target or apples.

you really have to targeted them. gerri: we did some street interviews about jcpenney's. people did not like their products, i don't like the fact that they took away the sales that you know, they have really hurt themselves. ashley: but home furnishings will turn it all around? gerri: i did not say that. we will talk about that and a fellow in new jersey who is still waiting for the check from the insurance company six months after hurricane sandy. as well as, a north carolina town where a fellow took all their money in a ponzi scheme. tracy: unfortunately, you knew this was going to happen. thank you, gerri.

jeff: out this the willis report tonight at 6:00 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. damage to the new hampshire main bridge. the tanker is now at least 800 feet long during fuel. it is not immediately known what kind of fuel. no word of a me injuries. we will keep an eye on that situation. tracy: coming up, small business big ideas. we will find the founder of one snack maker that doubled its revenue last year from the year before. if we are lucky, we will get a sample. ashley: fingers are crossed. we will be right back. ♪ this is america.

we don't let frequent heartburn come between us and what we love. so if you're one of them people who gets heartburn and then treats day afr day... block the acid with prilosec otc and don't get heartburn in the first place! [ male announcer ] e pill eachmorning. 4 hours. zero heartbur >> i am the parent with your fox business brief. exxon mobil continues cleaning up oil. this after a pipeline ruptured on friday.

u.s. construction rose last month. a survey shows u.s. activity expanded more in march than february. factories hired at a faster pace last month. that is the latest from the fox business network. giving you the power to prosper. ♪

ashley: it started with a simple idea. growing to become a leader in the $4 billion healthy snack bar

industry. the founder and ceo joins me now. thank you for being here. could you ever imagine this company that you started back in 2004 has grown the way it has? >> where they started, -- ashley: you started off with a company that featured mediterranean food. it's doing well, but you expanded too much. have you taken that lesson while you have gotten this could be underway? >> every product that we introduce we make with

ingredients you can see and pronounce. ashley: you really take your time. >> sometimes we come up with something really amazing and the team gets upset when i say it is not perfect, it is not ready. it took us two years to perfect. we wanted to give them something with under 5 grams of sugar without sacrificing taste. now it is one of our fastest selling items. what sets you apart from your competitors? >> they see that it is transparent the way we treat the ingredients with respect. you can see what you are eating. they are ingredients that you can see and pronounce. you know what you are putting into your mouth. it is kind to your body, your

taste buds and your world. ashley: kind fruit and not bars health and weight management. that is a nice boost also. >> yes. it prevents wayne because they are nutritionally rich and keeps you healthy. we are a little more cautious and strategic. still a very big opportunity.

every one of them, i think is doing very well. we are very grateful to our partners. we do well because they see it and they support us and we develop an lot of relationships. ashley: what is your most popular product? >> i call it my masterpiece. ashley: thank you so much for being here. continued success. good stuff. tracy: great stuff. it is quarter till. time for stocks out as we do every 15 minutes. nicole petallides. nicole: the dow jones industrials are down about 25 points. we have had some back-and-forth action. i wanted to take a look at tesla and apple.

you think of electric vehicles when you think of tesla. good news for the shareholders. of about 15%. stronger than expected numbers. a winner today call up almost six dollars. apple down about 17% year to date. we are seeing it to the downside once again. the latest numbers coming out showing less demand for the ipad. slowing down production of the ipad mini. right now it has been under pressure and continues to be lower. back to you. tracy: we will see you at the top of the hour. ashley: on deck, waiting for that critical ruling.

andrew napolitano told is why cities across the country will be watching this case very closely. tracy: let take a look at some of the winners on the nasdaq. we will be right back. don't go what's droid-smart ? with google now, it automatically knows when you need to leave for the airport, how much traffic there is, and can have your boarding pass ready. the droid razr maxx hd by motorola. droid-smart. droid-powerful. you are gonna need a wingman. and my cash back keeps the party going. but my airline miles take it worldwide. [ male announcer ] it shouldn't be this hard. with creditcards.com, it's easy to search hundreds of cards and apply online. creditcards.com.

tracy: still ruling out of stock ten. the judge deciding whether the city will be able to file for bankruptcy. judge andrew napolitano is here. >> there is no jury trial.

it is a judge trial. it is a federal bankruptcy trial. the city of stockton will say to a federal judge, we owe tens of billions to calpers, the california pension system, we do not have money. in order to keep us alive as a municipality, you have to relieve us of our obligations to pay this money speak out and the judge could wrap up >> yes. not all state laws permit that.

it gets a little dicey between federal and state law. state law permits interference with all contracts. federal law prohibits interference with pensions once they have been paid. if this judge reduces all pension payments to everybody, this case will go to this day in court the united states. ashley: is this ultimately where it is headed? >> unfortunately, for california, the governments have been so generous that this is now coming to the point where they cannot afford this generosity anymore. if the court interferes with those pension payments, obviously, this will go to the supreme court. if it favors stockton, this will

be a watershed. you will see this happening many times afterwards. tracy: because of the magnitude of this, it should go to supreme court. >> because this could be the domino, tracy, for many other municipal bankruptcies that involve pension funds, this should go to the supreme court. one of the unique things about bankruptcy is it is a federal system, but the judges follow the laws in the state in which they said. the invasion of a pension fund by a federal judge is so unheard of that it is unlikely to happen without the approval of the ninth citric.

ashley: do they have the power to appeal? speak yes, they do. they will not sell city hall and give you the proceeds. you really take that chance. you want $0.100 of a dollar, but you could end up with 17. tracy: good thing we have you around. this will go on for a long time. ashley: facebook may be changing its status and mobile market. shibani joshi has the details. shibani: i do not think -- this

is what investors have been way for. shares have just not been able to get any traction. on thursday they will have a big event. everyone is talking about the smart phone. they have to make money in one way, shape or form did. ashley: there has been lots of comments. tracy: mark zuckerberg has said he does not want to make a phone. it will just be a branded facebook phone. there have been a lot of doubt.

shibani: there are lots of apps out there. people are asking why they need facebook clones. we think they will unveil a phone where you just turn it on and get your facebook. ashley: good stuff, shibani. thank you. tracy: how high can this dow go? liz claman will take you through the last hour of trading. "countdown to the closing bell" is next. ♪

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