♪ neil: this just did, a government shutdown is on and here is why. four hours away from what looks like an unstoppable force. a government stop at midnight tonight. both sides have not bugs in inch. each line the other for the first government shut down in 17 years. we just heard him call leaders, even as the president said he is open to negotiating, is not open to negotiating what republicans want him to negotiate, slowing down.

in making it clear that it is not even going to give republicans a chance, today rejecting a counter offer to delay the law for one year. behind the scenes a very desperate starter the festival to avoid a shutdown me. reports that senate republican leader is bowling party members on passing out one week spending bill, enough to keep the government lets on and both sides abide to craft a long-term deal. republicans are not going that far but that apparently resigned themselves to not killing or even delaying the whole health care law son now talk of delaying key parts of the law. including something being debated in the house right now, the individual mandate that requires all americans to buy insurance. there is this back up that would force the senate to vote on a measure that would cut tax subsidies for congress and the president talked out of the health care law. in other words, as one

republican lawmaker put it, force them to eat their own putting. harry reid telling republicans that they can eat that one, too, which brings us back to something that increasingly looks like it is happening. for the first time since 1996, the united states government's a shutting down. tom delay remembers this from the last time and says that things are different this time. so that sarah palin who is here to say republicans better show some backbone this time. all that and a former u.s. comptroller who says both sides should remember the far bigger crisis facing as this time, namely one that starts a little more than two weeks. the countdown begins right now. just as they start trading in our futures get rolling and the u.s. government itself which release starts on winding. tonight, my friends, we have you covered. tonight, as always, we have your back.

let's go right to the capitol where my buddy, rich edson, has been doing yeoman's work keeping track of these latest moves and countermoves. what can you tell us right now? >> reporter: from a we have seen over the past a blow days, the house will likely pass a bill that does find the government with those obamacare provision is attached. we are just learning the u.s. senate will be holding votes around 930 this evening to what is called cable those -- table those amendments to muster paul the language out. that is just what we saw earlier from the u.s. senate. the house has rejected the idea, and so we move forward now with what the house will duke. it is unlikely that there is resolution before midnight tonight. simply running and time, especially when you consider what democrats and republicans are saying. many of whom in the house say they refuse to fund the government unless there are changes to the obamacare law. on the democratic side they say that they refused to entertain any concept our negotiation

dealing with any changes to the obamacare law. we continue this and now especially with the latest coming from the u.s. senate to table what the house has not passed that bill will probably do so in the next 30 minutes. we are where we were this morning, with no sign that this is moving anywhere toward anything but a shut down. neil: it is interesting. a counteroffer from the republicans. you get a sense that they are blinking more than our democrats who have steadfastly held to the deal. either a simple continuing resolution all we are not even entertaining. the republicans went from wanting to help -- kill the health care law to delaying health care law to now supposedly delaying the individual mandate provision which the president all but has said is not negotiable. so it would seem just by their postures that it is the republicans who are getting nervous. what is your sense of it? >> republicans keep going to try to get back to this, but the problem is you have now got a

situation where republicans put on the table the medical device tax which is something that was on the table for the senate thi morning and that is something again nearly 80 votes in the u.s. senate. digress and not going anywhere near. they have not changed the position. they say that they refuse to vote and then also said that they refused to negotiate on the debt ceiling. republicans keep trying to move toward an area. still, it is nowhere near enough for any democrat to entice democratic leaders to buy. neil: thank you, my friends. we had an interesting comment out of a moderate congressman who refuse to be identified. this is a point that i want to pick up with. these tea party years are ruining our day and ruining our chances. this is a key opportunity that they have had their time in the sun with the rest of us getting burnt. what do you make of that? >> well, the tea party patriots are very fiscally conservative,

and concerned about what obamacare will do to decimate our workforce and the middle-class. they're not going anywhere, so the moderate anonymous gop member had to my guesstimate better get used to that. and it is very important that people understand. even talk tonight about the government shut down, this is hysterics. governing by chaos. the american people are sick and tired of it, and we are asking, did congress not understand that october 1st was rolling around on the calendar? neil: it really is ridiculous. we did know that it was coming. both sides should have planned accordingly. bottom line, here we be. i am wondering if you buy these polls that say, as angry as americans are about health care, they do not want this to lead to a government shut down.

valleys in the eye of the beholder. i you afraid the system of. republicans let it be known that this is a problem and a moment to bring this to light. memories on them. they suffered, but as many claim they did in '96. >> again, i have said before, a poll like this, i think that the people need to be reminded what happened during the last step down back in the mid-90s, besides plants and putting up with monica. that is all other story. but they gop actually gained seats in the senate and retain the majority in the house. the also filed welfare reform enacted. we also saw finally a balanced budget. so that sounds pretty good to me . the gop needs to stand firm, not

blank, and start reminding the american people how irrelevant the federal government could and should be in our lives. one way to show that, to see it and make manifest is still less government show for a little bit, even if it has to shut down in terms of nonessential workers what if there are not essential, they should not be on the payroll in the wake. prioritizing said that military is paid a series of security checks go out. it is all a matter of priorities betty not think that they should fear some kind of government shut down and allow the media to drive this whole narrative. neil: the media is certainly trying to do that. always a pleasure. the me bring your attention to what is happening in the house where they will take this measure, called for a delay in the individual mandate which is the part that requires that individuals buy insurance or pay a penalty. now, the fact of the matter is, the senate has said this is denim arrival. republican senators, the fine

state of north dakota joins us. that is true, any tinkering with this health care law is going nowhere. t you believe that? do you think there are negotiating points including either the individual mandate which might be more of a stretch than getting rid of the tax on medicare lices? what do you think will prove the middle ground? >> offering compromises that are very popular with the american people, not only funding government, but delaying obamacare. clearly the president has already delayed it himself. on republicans come back and offer a 1-year delay in the individual mandate and eliminate the subsidy from members of congress in the exchange, i think that is compelling and democrats should compromise with us to get a deal done. neil: but if harry reid is not even let that come up for a vote, let's say, you are going

nowhere fast. if he does it is always attached to the continuing resolution. you are between a rock and a hard place, and the polls, be they what they are, tend to say it will be on republicans. do you believe that? >> republicans are working for reasonable con ermines. right now we're working on funding government, but we have the debt ceiling is she coming as well. the democrats are going to have to compromise to get bipartisan support for these measures. neil: you mentioned the debt ceiling, something i will be raising with a former u.s. comptroller which is really the big fight. this lingers and then you have another potential crisis. by virtue of the calendar, are you really in a bind? a republicans really in a bind? potentially looking and not just a temporary shutdown, but a prolonged one.

>> we need to get to a solution on funding the government now and on the debt ceiling which is why we keep offering measures that the american people support, and i think that as we continue to do this we are going to get broadbased support that will help us get it done. neil: when do you think it will be? in other words, everyone seems a big knowledge in a temporary shutdown. they usually talk in terms of days, but not like we had back in 1996. i think that one lasted three weeks. what do you think? >> hard to say. i thought we would get into this situation on the debt ceiling. we got into it earlier on the budget resolution. i am hopeful that we can find a compromise. we are offering very reasonable measures that could lead us into a solution on the debt ceiling, but on the debt ceiling we're going to need to find savings, in my opinion, savings and reforms to get bipartisan bump -- bipartisan support for a debt ceiling agreement. neil: we shall see. hope springs eternal life, as they say.

also getting a read on what is happening and the house floor right now where they're trying. this would be the fourth attempt to counter what the senate has done, this time by delaying the individual mandate in finding something that the senate will accept. the senate already on record as saying unless you give us a stripped-down continuing resolution to keep the government going for another few months everything you finance who will fight back if you. it is a mess. ♪ um... where's mrs. davis? she took an early spring break thanks to her double miles from the capital one venture card. now what was mrs. davis teaching?

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going to accept pay when the government was shut down. he said that he had planned to, but he was clearly caught off guard. controversy ensued, and now he is saying, if we shut down, damn right have won except a. we will give it to charity. we have congressman henry clay joining us also from the fine sieve texas. what does your gut tell you? how long will last? >> said think what will happen is that the republican majority's will pass a bill back again with the 1-year delay. the senate will send it back and at that time you will have democrats in the middle, republicans in the middle. go ahead and pass a clean bill on the budget because this should be on the focus on the budget committee appropriation. anything about health care anything like that is another time. we can talk about that. i would have focused on the budget, how much money we spend, how much money we cut. as we ought to be talking right

now. neil: they give them their due and they're saying that this is in travolta budget issues and spiraling costs and datasets. they find it a little surprising, the president, democrats in general are saying not now after so many other features of this line been delayed including the employer mandate, the on line provision for small businesses, special exemptions and allowances. so they say let's get our ducks in order. let's disarray head of the implementation of these changes. it would not hurt anyone to the lay-for a year or certain times. are you open? >> again, i am open to talk about the budget. the responsibility of the u.s. congress to pass a budget on time, pay bills on time. this is a budget issue, not health care issue. we had that debate in 2010. the u.s. supreme court had declared it unconstitutional.

it romney wanted to repeal it. they reelected president obama. this is a budget. want to talk about entitlements. neil: it really is not a budget. it is a continuing resolution because -- and both parties could not come up with a budget. has been years since we got a budget. we do this. recall the budget when it is just sort of like a band-aid approach to keep us going. >> again, the senate finally passed a budget. now let's put a conference committee where both the house and senate can sit down and work out the differences. this is not a health care debate we had that in 2010. let's talk about appropriations. less talk about a continuing resolution. this is what i am ready to talk about. a blue dog democrat. i am ready to open up everything about budget issues, appropriations. let's do it and move on. neil: does that mean that you are open to assuming we get some

sort of a deal that would avoid a shutdown market limited, revisiting health care and other provisions that could be delayed or adjusted? >> first of all, i voted for the health care law and will be the first one to say that there are modifications. want to see toward reform, mobile where you can move your head insurance from one state to the other. things like that the wanted in the first place. this is not the fight. i will be the first one to say let's go ahead and modify the health care law. neil: thank you very much. we're getting these totals on this. which would delay that individual mandate. the part that requires americans to get health care or pay a penalty. and that is just the way republicans -- if you are not going to kill a law or delay the entire law, at least delay this summer's provisions a year. expected to pay and so that they could set up punting this back

to the senate which has already pre promised is going nowhere fast. some becoming a far bigger than this. it concerns are dead. that is the big one, the markets are watching. you think there was shaky today? this thing does not go right. ♪ bny mellon combines investment manageme & investment servicing,

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♪ >> past showdowns have disrupted the economy significantly. this one would, too. it would throw a wrench into the years of our economy and a time

when those years have gained traction. neil: is it really that bad? watershed down really be that bad -- that bad for the economy? our twitter followers are not entirely convinced. the president to quiet will again. apocalypse now. the entire economy and still another, we need this shutdown. my world still turns. how about yours? the president is only worried about not being it will disband. this is not a big battle. it is a far bigger battle to come in two weeks when our debt ceiling is reached. unless they do something to suggest that a potential fiscal crisis is on. what happens then? and mean, everyone seems to say that if they do not find some accommodation and and there is just a matter of time before a -- it's very seldom see is at

risk. it always seems a little hyperbolic to me. >> first, let's understand, neil, this continuing resolution is a bigger deal. the reason being is the government has not approved any appropriations bills, none of them, not for defense, veterans, anything. and so therefore it has an ability to have a much bigger impact. but the real battle ought to be, what are we going to do for funding for the entire year and the debt ceiling? if house republicans did not get the senate to go along with this proposal they should pass at three week clean continuing resolution and get on to what matters. and that is, let's start negotiating over funding for the entire year. let's start negotiating for that debt ceiling to make sure we get past the next election. that is where the election is. neil: you would couple that to together. you would put this.

the three weeks would be roughly about the time that you are looking at -- the government running out of money. so you would treat them both together. >> i would couple them together. the reason being is it maximizes leveraged. but the fact is, the republicans have already made their point. they have now backed off. we want to delay the individual mandate, not the whole lot, just a mandate. you want to eliminate the congressional carve out. the american people will win on those points, but we don't have the votes to be able to get what they want now. so do a clean continuing resolution. do not cause a disruption. frankly, continuing resolutions in many cases ending a cost us more money and destruction. let's focus on what matters. let's focus on the debt ceiling and the need to agree on funding for the year end targets to deal with the structural deficits. neil: does this give you any hope? if they cannot handle this?

this was well telegraphed. they did not think -- and so if we are at this brinksmanship now , it seems to me that we are having a hell of a lot of difficulty dealing with that and not going to have much more ability to deal with these ongoing issues. >> first, congress has only passed family budgets and appropriations bills four times in the last 62 years. this is not new. with the mistake was less they should not be leveraging the continuing resolution. we need to keep the government operating. we need to do something about spending. we need to raise the debt ceiling. we need to focus on the three things that cause i structural deficits. social and insurance programs, rationalize their of their promises and do a comprehensive tax reform. neil: they never do. >> they have not. neil: and you can understand sometimes that we tried everything else. we will try it later.

take a chill pill. we will come back. a lot of these people come back and say, well, the hell with this nonsense. we are sick of the broken promise. >> that is why you can raise the debt ceiling by a certain amount , exchange it for spending reductions including some mandatory spending reductions calculated over the high rise. there is way to get it done. the president is willing to negotiate with the iranians, he ought to be willing to negotiate with the republicans. neil: all right. we shall see. it is always a pleasure. thank you as he was speaking in the house is getting done voting and a measure that would go nowhere fast in the senate, the individual mandate provision, foreign markets are generally mixed. underlying stocks under earlier today, nominally to the upside. again, the expectation is a market, and it is always dangerous, that even if we have a shot down, it will not last that long. it will not drag on i hasten to

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neil: with the delay of the individual mandate he wanted to make a year to talk with us and we appreciate that congressman. he actually knows what this is all about which lets this squarely in the middle. congressman would never is dead in the senate in this measure is dead on arrival there? >> hitting our head against

the wall as is said the very day i got here your vasquez was talking about the debt ceiling in august 2011 it does get frustrating it people elected us to do our job to give it -- to the government functioning for kyle late to shrink it did little bit with tax reform and things you heard from the previous segment but yes there should be something we can live with to move on. neil: what should that resolution be? with the pilot terry mechanics and the senate sends back a clean resolution and you send this back and then you go right past each other not recognizing the other? before valid reasons but i don't see where the middle ground would be but getting

that democrats to go along with the tax on medical devices? >> it could be but said to have special exceptions for congress look at how many exemptions we have been given already? think of foxbusiness.com/cavuto hundred everybody should be treated fairly it is a complicated bill and it is extremely complicated and it goes live in the morning at least the exchange's. neil: and that is the reason why the president is loath to change anything because those exchanges is locked hand in hand and if that is the whole thing potentially why after so many delays and provisos and carve out an

exception this is totally unacceptable. >> i cannot imagine why. to treat individual citizen different makes no sense to me whatsoever. we should all be treated the same if it is not good enough for congress than why is it good enough for ordinary citizens? that is the argument we were just making a few moments ago. the people will see that. they really are livid about this. they think they should be treated the same as anybody else. >> it could be overnight. maybe not that long it could be short or long. >> 800,000 federal workers working for the united states government will be

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neil: we always try to find reasons for the market for what they do and sometimes trying to unwind it in the case of our markets with the dow losing 100 20.futures so that may or may not be optimistic. and ben stein to what is happening right now. looking at a shutdown than the issue is how long? >>.

>> we're looking at a shot down unless the men from mars come down. otherwise they get way beyond what i a deserve. [laughter] neil: everyone makes a big deal from times in the past eight and is that true? >> what do you think? >> certainly there is a lot less but what is going on in the country is evenly split about 20 to keep entitlements for ever and have to know what to play for them. and he is exactly right. of the country is deeply split so that has something to do with hard-working

people to say there are a lot of shiftless people we're already paying food stamps now they could wrap the doctors' offices and we don't want that. there is a lot of vigor. -- anchor for hard-working immigrants there would be of much less problem of obamacare than there is now. neil: i assume john decade when he was in washington -- washington with the health care law but there are better ways to go about it. whenever publicity we're getting is bad publicity. and if it means a government shutdown, i am paraphrasing paraphrasing, it will hurt us the matter would never acre they have lost to the eager for shutting it down?

>> i am not sure but there is no point in doing republicans are doing our what mr. cruz did in the house. if the bill is that bad let it become law and collapse under its own weight if the bill works well and pour people get health coverage then god bless obamacare. >> they will get benefits but do they pay for the nose for that? >> it cost twice what it costs to visit the park avenue physician. if it works out to get medical care then why not? it is not morally suitable for a country as rich as the u.s. to get medical care it is just not morally suitable

so how did we go about it? to remind everybody worked for nixon is not a bad idea. neil: ben stein as he was talking the house did approve the measure to kick to the senate to delay the individual mandate the requirement that we all have health insurance and get a fast before we are penalized tom delay will be here to distinguish between the last shot down and what could happen this time. everybody seems to think the republicans were humiliated. was just think the former house majority leader? e used dos from her capital one venture card to take an early vacation. buckle up. let's go do cop stuff. [ siren chirps ] license and venture card, ma'am.

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>> republicans will never surrender in our efforts to get a balanced budget. >> the american people see the future of government that is partially closed and many have found that it works just fine. we will get to a balanced budget by weeding out wasteful and inefficient washington spending. >> do not tell tom delay it was all for naught as he joins me right now to say the lessons learned we can keep in mind now? good to have you. what do republicans gain? that they got the better of the republicans? >> the best thing we gain is the confidence of our base that put us into the first republican majority in 60 years.

that was first doing what we said we would to start the government on a downward road we eliminated over 100 agencies and bill clinton did not like it we did other cuts in government that is why he shut down the government and veto the bill but after the government opened after 21 days we still got the cuts we just fix the bill a little bit to give bill clinton some issues we still got the ut. so we won. not only that but the best part is we send a message that the new republican majority will not fool around. we will take you over the cliff and that is how we got

welfare reform and a balanced budget act of 1997 and spending on the military to beef up defense and all kinds of wonderful things. bill clinton in the last six years of his administration administration, he never signed one major bill he initiated. it was initiated from the house because we've understood the power of the first. neil: you are right to of those and i remember quite well sweat -- spending slowed dramatically but he did get reelected but your point tusis were gained in the senate and with the governors but whether this same of verbiage with a divided republican party maybe you can refresh my memory at the mainstream how were guys like you see and are was the whole party in

lockstep? they strongly believe in what you are doing? >> first of all, the rino was so excited to actually be chairman of a committee they went along with some reluctantly of the contract of america. and the rest of us to have an agenda that people want to be a part of it. >> items see that same cast of characters. >> i have to it mitt the leadership of today tells obama before they even pass the budget they will never shut down the government that gives leverage to obama and look what happens. obama and harry reid say

they will cave but they have to show them that they want and they will have to stand on their principles. of the government shuts down , so be it. neil: take you very much. the whip to get to them all into shape the what happens now? by a large tomorrow is anyone's guess. (vo) you are a business pro. maestro of project management. baron of the build-out. you need a permit... to be this awesome. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle... and go. you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the mid-size price. (aaron) purrrft. (vo) meee-ow, business pro. meee-ow. go national. go like a pro.

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neil: the stock's tumble when the government shut down. yes or no? >> no. after the shutdown it soared and whether if that happens at this time. >> i think the market is so cave maybe if they don't get anything done it could be soft but i think this will end pretty quickly and not so worried in with the dow down today small caps were

flat and amid caps were flat and most of the market did okay. neil: it depends how long it last? then we have problems. >> yes. people have to be calibrate realize they are near a high if you start to see the weeks happening that every week it will cost 15 hundreds of 1%. >> no way that they can quantify. >> nobody is coming back later. [laughter] >> to look at the debt ceiling fight that is the possibility of the u.s. credit downgrade.

or at least on a watch list if we're not help -- careful it is very unlikely in that is the last thing you even less have been. is it a realistic threat? >> confidence is it the one-two punch. and todd said something important. we are susceptible to a pullback or a correction so i don't doubt it continues to roll on this way. >> we have not lost in the lew word to foreigners but if you see that continuing

that it does not get screwed up? >> another interesting market it is around 60 right now it was 12 at the back of the start of august we have moved up 33% so the market is a little fearful of what could have been maybe blood on ned turbidite the president from every and -- iran. >> what could we expect? >> in the next 15 minutes from about 3:00 this afternoon the senate will take the bill there will strip out the portions that deal with obamacare and send it back again it is septupled this speaker and harry reid says they can get out with no other provisions

that have to do with obamacare there are possible ways for word without medical device tax but the senate rejected yesterday so right now it remains to be seen whether or not he tries to move forward he has rejected that so far and as people watched the capitol hill right now it is hard to figure out the way to avoid a government shutdown that is a legislative ping-pong case to find a way for word to fund the government by the bite -- by midnight. neil: but i am wondering if if the markets may be the deciding factor?

if much as we had when congress was voted down the first start package? all bets our off but barring that receives they would not be a problem for congress to consider? >> it has to be a dramatic sell-off. talking to some investors not necessarily a government shutdown that would gradually take place if congress cannot pass the funding bill but what does this mean for the debt ceiling fight? that is the real fight to go over the cliff if u.s. washington d.c.s amazing and the markets around the world we have until october october 17. >> you will be spearheading our coverage but it is like

a couple seeing a marriage counselor. will be be safe? we will see. h tonight on "the w" the spending fight in washington that threatens to shut down the government. is there any way at of this? homeowners rushing. we will break down the new rules set to take effect. and banks making record profits by charging you tons of these. tonight the map to keep some of that money for yourself. rio watching out for you tonight on "the willis report." ♪ the stories and more coming up. also tonight, we kick o