investors need to know with the swings in stocks the last few weeks, we started this morning, the cyberthreat for business owners, business bank accounts are not foolproof and the costs of the polar for tax up to the billions for travelers. the google barge out of the san francisco bay, google has to move it. the next hour on markets now. got to move the barge. dagen: don't get to see you walk this morning, you're sitting right next to me. connell: glad you realized that. a good start to the show. dagen: top of the hour. stocks up, we need a lot more, trying to shake off the giants' fullback particularly yesterday, down 3% of the previous two sessions. nicole petallides at stock

exchange. nicole: bouncing back a little bit after yesterday's sell-off the dow down 236 points a loss of 2% so we are certainly in that will back at least for the close of yesterday's trading where the s&p was 5% off of its highs, the is and be 5% dow jones industrials 7% so it is a tough go of it you are seeing a bounceback. dupont, pfizer, some of the names leading the dow jones industrials, united healthcare, united technologies are the names weighing on the dow, boeing softened the retailers in focus, j.c. penney, overall the economy is something that is driving the market or bringing some concerns, the manufacturing numbers look weaker, the jobs report on friday. back to you. dagen: the dow off of its second 300 point loss of the year and my next guest says investors better be ready for a bumpier ride ahead. bob bauer, chief global

economist at principal global investors. what problems have we really got lulled into a false sense of security and safety, what we haven't seen this volatility in the last two calendar years. >> we haven't. to understand what is going on there are several things happening in the short term. as you mentioned as your colleagues did a moment ago there have been weak u.s. numbers, the i s m durable-goods, the last payroll report. in addition there have been some difficulties in emerging markets, the big decline, the big devaluation in argentina, rate hike in turkey, some currency problems elsewhere and as you think about last year the market probably did go little overextended late in the year, people didn't want to sell because they were afraid the market would get away from them so it is understandable why you got some bumpy markets in january and february. dagen: in terms of slowing

growth in the emerging markets is a slower economic growth that is the problem or is it just much tighter margins? >> certainly profits that you mentioned, mainly the key problem but what is coming from that is china's growth is slowing for several reasons. its labor force is going to shrink in a year or two, productivity is lower than it has been in the past. china because of rising wages and appreciating currency not nearly as cost competitive as it was so as china slows that is causing growth problems and other emerging markets which were driven by china's industrialization over the last decade or so. with not much pricing power by exporters in emerging markets that is causing profit problems you mentioned. dagen: in terms of china's slowing growth what other parts of the world will pick up the slack if at all?

>> we think developed markets going to pick up the slack this year. we are optimistic about the u.s.. we think we will see slower growth in the first quarter because the inventory accumulation in the second half of last year will slow things a little bit in the first quarter but without that, we look for three to 3% growth this year so that is much better than it has been in the past, the euro zone is coming out of recession, we think we could see 1% growth this year, much more out of germany, the u.k. looks good, japan little hard to know, they had nice growth, we think they can keep that up for a little while so some of the slowing in growth putting pressure on emerging markets taken back by developed countries. dagen: the u.s. europe? >> we like the u.s. we think there are places in europe that look pretty good particularly

domestically focused companies. technology, we like, we have light consumer discretionary stocks. the huge rise in natural gas in january may be putting pressure on consumer budgets in the u.s. which is why consumer staples and discretionary stocks were two of the biggest sector losers in january. dagen: terrific in sight all-around world. we will see you soon. connell: in washington executives from target testifying on capitol hill so possibly shedding light on a recent cyberattacks affecting a million customers. dagen: rich edson standing by with the latest. rich: the attack went on a few days after, there were 25 terminals with credit card information, 150 additional cards were stolen through the process. and industry fight going on in

washington, to put better security in credit cards in europe. and they need to beef up their security systems so that is ongoing and both parties looking to capitol hill to do some legislation to create standards to know how to act and the republican says there is a risk of overregulation. >> as we discuss the creation of a federal preach nullification standard, we must avoid the risk of consumer overnotification just as there is potential for harm when a victim isn't notified of a breach, overnotification can lead to harm and apathy. connell: the top republican on that committee will be on fox business to discuss this issue and a lot more discussion and capitol hill with all of this, more hearings in the next few weeks dealing with the data

breached. dagen: thank you so much. and now this snowy river, nasty winter, last month the polar for tax cost stranded travelers $2.5 billion in lost productivity, lodging expenses and food. airlines taking a hit as well, $150 canceling 490 flight delay in 400,000, according to aviation technology company mass flight. still not over here. connell: back in august the farmer's almanac predicted stormy weather for the super bowl and this was what was in the almanac. we are forecasting stormy weather for the biggest sporting day but even if we are off by a day or two with the timing of the copious wind, rain and snow, we wish to stress that this particular part of the winter season will be pretty generally

volatile and especially turbulent. let's bring in joe bastardi. i would say if you say something like that way back in august we got what we got yesterday, a day late for the super bowl, that is pretty good. >> pretty good forecast, september of 2011. the winners of 12-13 started late last year. 13-14 and 14-15 next year we are going to be bad based on patterns we analyze and look at. that was a good forecast, the folks that are involved in the energy industry and the government, my company weather bell was by far the coldest, brutal winter forecast based on 1917-1918 and '93-'94 and both of those were big top 5 winners. is turning out according to plan your too. connell: we wanted to see a snowy super bowl were disappointed we could have had

yesterday's whether the day before and many were happy they got a 50 degrees or whatever they got one day off sunday night. how do you -- it is all patterns, what you're looking at. repeating patterns. >> if you see similar patterns we analog vista 1917-1918 for various reasons and people that follow me on whether bell know this has been set up for quite a while. water temperatures in the pacific, noaa does this rea analysis scheme and a real analysis scheme noah has you had the same water temperatures in 1917-1918 as you did this year so you get a similar result. nothing is exactly the same but that was the top 5 cold winter and it keeps coming. this week, we were analyzing this back in january, looks like february of '94. 15 to 20 inches from late january into the early part of february '94 so you look at

these and line this up, the point of the matter is i look back at things, become very acquainted with what happened before and when i see things, go to that. my partner and i called older than me has more experience with this stuff. connell: it is interesting, we have been entering you interviewing you through this process and local stations can tell you to some extent what it will be like tonight and how many inches of snow in new york or a big storm sunday, what you saying, this is valuable to businesses, what you saying looking farther ahead now, we had a volatile winter talk about that with the farmer's almanac but what do you look at? anything valuable? >> i have a couple salt companies, one based in new york and we told them back in summer, back in spring, a nasty winter because of what we were looking at so they purchased more salt,

distributing it to their clients as opposed to other people and that is piling up, city's spending a lot of money to fight this stuff but we believe this is going to snap in march. unfortunately they say spring is around corner, it is a long hall to the end block in this case but look for this when it snaps it will snap big-time. i think march will be much warmer than last march and last march we really got started in february and march and april kept going and going. the united states has been cold over the last year since february of last year we turned the tables and instead of having all this warm weather, and warmer. and -- specifically deal with the client.

connell: no finding out. liz: connell: joe bastardi. dagen: looking good in the best. give a shot, i encourage you. snowmobiles of hot ticket these days. jeff flock reports. connell: san francisco bay looks to get rid of a big barge that has been parking there. dagen: growing threat of cyberattacks business and is concerned about their bank accounts, will it hurt consumer confidence and shopping? we will discuss higher oil prices. take a look at what oil is doing today. or retirement.

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for advice, retirement, and life insurance, sometimes they just drop in. always obvious. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances. connell: what are the big stories today? microsoft. and the ceos there. nicole: a big deal here for microsoft, the name we are familiar with, and obviously

they have worked on the company and now move up to the ceo, the board of directors, appointed ceo, board of directors effective immediately, he held the position of executive vice president of the cloud and enterprise group, the group that he served and oversaw the server and tool business which outperformed, got caught positive comments from bill gates and steve ballmer, bill gates says there is no better person for the role, steve ballmer 20 years, the right leader for microsoft spearheaded transition into the company moving into the clouds so here we go. the new ceo of microsoft. dagen: apparently so well like to. we will see you, thank you so much. google's barge in the san francisco bay no longer welcome. the conservation and development commission received several complaints and found the tech giant cannot acquire the proper

permits to keep its vessel where it currently stands. officials say the problem can be fixed if the barge is taken to a permanent construction site. the four story barge has been there over a year. purpose originally a mystery although plans and late last fall shows that the barge had been constructive as interactive site to teach the public about technology. will get shares of google, there is the fight about the buses in san francisco. it is a real war of the people in the technology industry, very left-leaning folks. connell: in the city in general. the fda, food and drug administration lodging $115 million anti-smoking campaign aimed at young people, they call it the real cost and start running the ad in 200 markets around the country on the eleventh of february, seen not only on tv but print ads and social media for one year. young people or people who would

be vulnerable to smoking, in charge of that kind of thing. u.s. at risk of hitting the debt limit once again so we have to talk about it once again but the treasury secretary jack lew sounding the alarm. not in a hurry to get anything done. he joins us later this hour. dagen: you might be sick of the cold weather but this winter has been a huge winter for snowmobile dealers. the deep freeze is a big dream and take a look at currency. scary but fun.

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>> your fox news minute, president obama secures commitments from major u.s. companies worth $750 million to connect more students to high speed internet. microsoft, apple, at&t and sprint are among those companies. this is part of the president's will have 99% of american students connected to high-speed internet. the u.s. ambassador to russia

stepping down after two years in moscow. michael mcfall will resign from the winter olympics, many successes in u.s.-russian relations, he has been criticized by russian officials in the face of rising anti-americanism in that country. hamid karzai has been holding secret peace talks with taliban official. relations between the u.s. and afghanistan have been strained since november when hamid karzai said he would not have a security deal lasting in the presidential election in april. those are your news headlines on the fox business network. dagen: winter has been cold and a brutal but it has been great news for belt makers. in peru, ill..

>> who is happy about this snow? this cold? our first is skiers and snowmobile riders and dealers and you have had an incredible winter? >> this is what we have been waiting for the last ten years. >> look at the numbers on snowmobile sales worldwide? the u.s. the biggest market as well as canada for snow mobiles and it is important for these snow mobile companies when you have this bad winter doesn't do much for you. >> no it doesn't but this is making up for the last few battles. >> look at the snow mobile companies out there. what are we driving right now? >> of polaris pro 800 switch back. >> polaris is one of them, arctic cat is another if you look at the performance of those companies over the course of the past year particular past five

years, snow mobilesing has taken off. >> it is a great family support. everyone has a good time doing it. >> we have snow coming tonight, may start in the next couple hours. >> we are supposed to get four to six inches. >> good news out here, at least for somebody. out here in the fields. in two hours times stay tuned to the 1:00 hour. i have never driven a snow mobile before. let's see if we can get somebody to call 911. i hope not. >> that is worth staying tuned for jeff flock on the move. dagen: stage manager on the throttle. which he does know something about snow mobileing and ice fishing but everything else not

so much. connell: can't know everything. dagen: and jersey basketball. two cyberthreats becoming a top concern for entrepreneurs. paul mitchell, co-founder and ceo, going to let you know what you can do to protect your business and the board of confidence. connell: another debt ceiling that heating up in congress, the friday deadline looming, congressman charlie rangel joining us with the latest on his.of view as we continue on markets now. ♪

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connell: public-service announcement for the day, which facebook and happy birthday. it is tin today. nicole petallides rejoins us. nicole: happy birthday to facebook. of harvard campus in february of 2004 the stock has been jumping 2.5% over the last 52 weeks of 118%. you may remember 2012, below $20. mark zuckerberg came out and said stick with us, tough competition, when they first started with the likes of everything pmispace anddothers, it continued to grow and told those naysayers they are alive and still going to. happy tenth birthday to facebook. mark zuckerberg said we cared more than the other guys and that is one of the reasons. dagen: cidertheft is one of the

top concerns for small-business owners trying to keep their hard-earned money safe. the fbi says steve stone $100 billion from small business bank account in 2011, that number tripling every year. should you be worried if you own a business? should anybody be worried? and founder of the throne, tequila, it is great to see you. >> love you out there. dagen: i do wonder, bigger picture about the cybertheft, particularly target, first and foremost what does that do to the psyche of the consumer? do you think people getting to the point that they are scared to spend money if they're using their credit card? >> yes they are. it was addressed in europe several years ago. in most places in europe if you bring in your credit card they bring the machine to you, to

give yo it is suggested more retailers in the united states, buying some things that will be right back, take your credit card to the back room. there is no guarantee you won't get hacked if they do it right in front of you but it makes subtle little bit easier, more confident in what you are doing if you see them do it right in front of you. it adds that. there are certain things when you look at cybercrime with small business it is a big deal and a lot people not aware of that through social media, they will tap in 2 your own web site and get some information out of you. i spoke to a banker this morning, a couple of them, eddie stafford at prosperity bank, what are the concerns and some of the things we know people can do that you can add to? he says people do hack in the a your social media into your web site but the things people could do to protect a little bit is

one, be very careful of who knows the user's name and the pass code on your system. if possible try to have an in corrupted system if possible. we all know that small businesses maybe can't afford something like that but what they can do is work with -- small business go to the local bank and say what can i do to watch my password? what can i do with you? do you have a special system in place that i could check my system every single day? i could check everybody who is taking money out but what would you suggest? this is something most people don't know. small-businesses that lose money are not insured by banks unless, and this is interesting, they go to the local bank and say to the local bank what can i do in order to make sure i am not jeopardized but if i do is not my responsibility to join in?

at prosperity bank they give you things you could do and if you do these things people suggest then they stand by you as a partner and a lot of people are not aware of that but for small business take the time. dagen: we were talking about the impact on confidence of these major, major data sets recently. big picture if you step back, market in not good condition at least so far this year. income is not growing. what does the country look like right now given all those head winds? >> if you look at these head winds right now, i am not certain, people go into a panic but if you look at the big picture we are going good places. it is a positive outlook. if you look at businesses, profits going up, looking get tough times, we survive them. if you look at other economies following the united states,

usually for any economies, 6 months behind us so a lot of things are going on that negative looking, you got to look at the glass being half full, you do that by looking at the great things going on in government, more people speaking and saying obamacare is something else, this isn't working, change things. the stock market going down, it is cyclical. they go down but come back up again. small businesses look at that they have got to remember there is hope, quick example if we have the time, john paul mitchell systems started in 1980, inflation was 12%, unemployment 10%, interest rates 18% but we went out believing in the positive side of getting the message out. if you look at the positive side of things that going in, things that a going on the consumer will have more confidence and the business will have more confidence and the business, the good things going on to their consumers not just the i agree things are not that good. will get a good thing that are

going on. dagen: i love the positive message, great to see you. >> america still works. connell: from that we go back to washington to talk about the issues there and the congressional budget office protecting a drop in the budget deficit becoming fiscal year but expecting a trillion dollars increase over the course -- dagen: peter barnes with more. peter: the new report is right here. better news on the deficit thanks to billions in extra dividend payment to the treasury for mortgage giant fannie mae and freddie mac which it bailed out and controls. in the new annual forecast predicting a budget deficit of $414 billion for fiscal year 2014 on oct. 21, $46 billion less than the projection in the may outlook of $560 billion in 2014. this compares to an actual

deficit that came in at $680 billion for fiscal 2013 but the cbo also projects a long-term budget outlook will get worse thanks to weaker economic growth over the next ten years than it previously expected it now sees the ten year deficits totaling $7.3 trillion, a trillion dollars increase from it estimates last may. >> beyond 2017 we project economic growth will diminish to a bit more than 2% per year. a pace that is well below the average seen over the last several decades. peter: took a new look at obamacare and it has revised downward its original projection that 7 million people would get coverage in the new health-care exchanges in the first year, revised to 6 million because of all the terrible technical problems with the government's

healthcare.gov web site and also projects because of the health-care law there will be a reduction in full-time employment of 2 million workers by 2017, 2.5 million by 2020 for. dagen: peter barnes in washington. connell: the debt ceiling is the other thing people in washington are talking about, the house speaker john boehner says republicans are looking at deficit reduction as part of the deal there. congressman charlie rangel will give us an idea what they're looking for on his side of the aisle. dagen: a number of automaker recalls sitting a nine year high, the company behind the vehicles with the most problems. connell: tomorrow's good business, in just double pill, health diagnosis to diagnose:cancer. what does everything mean to you? with the quicksilver cash back card from capital one,

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>> u.s. factory orders fell by 1.5% in december, the biggest decline since july. according to the commerce department and 18% drop in commercial aircraft demand led to those demands. bolognese penney sales were up 3.1% year over year for the full fourth quarter same-store sales rose by 2% and the first time the retailer reported positive

quarterly sales since the second quarter of 2011. bolognese any said its web sales jumped 26% over last year. walmart will invest $415 million in its candidate unit. will create 7500 jobs including construction to build 35 new supercenters in canada by next january. that is the latest in a fox business network giving you the power to prosper.

dagen: the global market took a dive as investors are fearful. asia's nikkei falling sharply on the heels of yesterday's markets. connell: japan was not mess overnight. sandra smith joins us with the trade. sandra: our markets bouncing back but overseas completely different story. want to take a look, you mentioned the nikkei down 610 points, a drop of a full 4.2% on

the key level for the tokyo index, just above 14,000, not only did this index be a 4% drop on a date for the entire month of january lost 8.5%, now down 14% from its december highs. firmly in collection mode. our markets have not reached that yet. only 5% from reaching their market territory and farther west hong kong index, the hang seng down 3% on this session. down under as we saw a key central bank decision looking a little more hawkish in their language, reading to a sell-off in sydney 1.7% drop off of 87 points. red arrows across the board following our market is down. want to point out one thing when we're talking about the nikkei index, the most significant plunge.

a lot of this based on currency movements. going to the currency board watching the japanese yen there has been a significant strengthening of the japanese yen overseas and that has led to major concern about corporate profits, and sales tax increases affecting the markets of ritter but getting back to this as we continue to look farther west, one of the markets bounced back a little bit. down 10 points, paris in the green but here we are as we go back to the dow 30 we are in the green, dupont leading the way but significant losses overseas, u.s. investors continued to watch. dagen: stocks recovering today but the recent pullback as investors wondering if this is just one day event. gray wolf partners, looking at this sector, the most economically sensitive sectors i

getting a nice bounce back, consumer discretionary up 1%. >> this sector is the worst performing in january. last year the consumer discretionary has been a huge performer the last few years of the january barometer is telling us something, the sector is extremely weak. now is starting to stabilize, could see a bounce. it still lags for the year but things like utilities which nobody had been watching expected to outperform have done quite well and pulling back, by and large equities that follow the move in treasury yields and the dollar yen over the last few weeks, something important for investors to keep an eye on. there has been a lot of positive correlation. dagen: you are at a stock exchange but what about treasuries? the yield on a ten year, 2.63. you wouldn't buy that right now? >> only for trade. the economy was going to be

weaker than expected but friday's number, no one is looking at long-term viable investment, and avoiding losing equity until you shelter money by being safe by buying treasurys and that is what people are looking at. dagen: at 3% yield, thanks so much. connell: u.s. automakers recalling 22 million vehicles. the company that held the most of of the road. dagen: a new wing just will pay approved in the united states that could help detect colon cancer.

dagen: automakers recalling 22 million cars and trucks in the u.s. the highest number in nine years. this is because companies have started using common parts effective for cost cutting but also results in a higher number of vehicle recalls when something does go wrong. chrysler initiated the most recalls with 36, recalling 4.7 million vehicles. toyota came in with actual number of vehicles recalled. that was 7.3 million in its 15 separate recalls. check this out. mercedes-benz recalling the fewest number of vehicles, only 747. take a look at automakers now, the thing is it is costly to

maintain those. connell: talking about the common parts, how cost-effective, you don't mess it up. the opposite of cost-effective. it doesn't go right because it really is wrong. it is a good story it is, the company giving imaging. they won u.s. approval before a camera that you could actually swallow. the goal is to allow doctors to screen the large intestine for colon cancer. that is a good use of technology. the pictures from battery powered many camera are not enough to replace colonoscopy is but it could help patients with incomplete colonoscopy is, another way of helping in the diagnosis. industry analysts estimate the bill can to do one north american sales of $60 million in 2019. the health side of it is positive. dagen: what age do you get regular colonoscopy is? connell: i hope there's not a

joke in this? dagen: support for a man and woman. thank you so much. it is important. connell: like lots of things. dagen: every morning with me. connell: the dow is up 81. dagen: actually talking to me in bomb morning outside -- connell: without the coffee. and from the stock exchange we are rebounding little bit today. nicole: it is taking the movers here and focusing on that. a different day than yesterday. the vix is soaring. all sectors had down arrows and today you have a bearish on the dow and nasdaq and the s&p and some movers we have been watching retailers like michael course and j.c. penney which came out with some numbers which michael corps is doing great up 18% today so obviously a big move going towards 77 present.

j.c. penney's same-store sales on a rise by 2% but wall street basically saying not good enough, j.c. penney had analysts cutting their targets, one even had $3 so you are seeing it under some pressure. then we are watching interactive which came out with revenue and profit in the fourth quarter of grand theft auto, take a look at how grand theft auto and its parent are doing after those, that mover and last but not least watching those movers overall on wall street. yum brands the fourth one, i wasn't able to see what it was, playing with yum brands, kfc, taco bell, pizza hut, three big names, kfc the big one in china with the bird food scare that had the numbers overall. and forecasts in 2014. connell: it was snowing like

crazy behind us. dagen mcdowell's weather forecast shows that it is not but more bad weather heading today to the midwest and eventually to the northeast, and another storm, joe bastardi was talking how businesses -- told us it would be a rough winter, has been already. some forecasters are saying it is another big storm on sunday. it does slow down a little bit. dagen: should get dr. bill evans credit where credit is due. that is exactly how you got your weather. connell: i made it up. channel 7 in new york, in the 3 to 6 camp. a camp and some people were saying more north of the city. dagen: didn't happen on sunday, superbowl sunday. connell: 1 other note, teasing,

have our friend congressman charlie rangel on the show, next thing you know it goes to a vote which does happen apparently in d.c. but we heard from his staff and they said he is going to come out of our show. not like he got angry and that we are not coming on with that show. we always appreciate when he comes on so it is a good discussion that will happen tomorrow instead of today. dagen: take the mike off and throw it. sorry congressman frank might do that. connell: nothing makes me more afraid than when we have time to kill. you might come. dagen: never book like -- i am always staring at you. connell: the senate judiciary committee digging in to credit card breached and speaking of senators, charles grassley coming on to talk about that with cheryl and dennis in terms

of what has been discovered. dagen: outrage over the return of millions of dollars a virus bonuses, they're back and so much more in the next hour of markets now. and so does bill, an identity thief who stole mary's identity, took over her bank accounts, and stole her hard-earned money. unfortunately, millions of americans just like you learn all it may take is a little misplaced information to wreak havoc on your le. this is identity theft. and none helps stop it better than lifelock. lifelock offers the most comprehensive identity theft protection available. if mary had felock's bank account alerts, she may have been notified before it was too late. lifelock's credit notification service is on the job 24/7. as soon as they detect a threat to your identity within their network, they will alert you, protecting you before the damage is done. lifelock has the most comprehensive identity theft protection available, guarding yousocial security number, your money,

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>> i want to say how deeply sorry we are for the impact this incident has had on our guest dared we know this breach has shaken the confidence in target. we are prepared to work very hard to earn it back. cheryl: i am cheryl casone. here to take you through the next hour of our kids now with dennis kneale. senator charles grassley is the member behind the committee. the massive half trillion dollar deficit is shrinking right now. we debate what it means for america coming up. the new microsoft.

bill gates is out as chairman. where microsoft wants to go next. all of this and a lot more coming up on markets now. ♪ cheryl: you had a super path of destruction for the super bowl. dennis: the second time just in six weeks. i want dow 16,000 back. we have stocks now and every 15 minutes. nicole petallides. nicole: it is not to say it will not happen. we have had a tough go of it. we saw the down 326 points.

we are seeing a little bit of a bounce back. they are not really sure which way the market will go. not forget friday's jobs report. do not forget we are still noting the volatility is still here, at least for right now. the market remains a concern as well. we have a lot here that we are digesting. we have company earnings from cores and yum brands and jcpenney and the like. cheryl: thank you very much,

nicole. a drop in the annual budget deficit. peter barnes is in washington, d.c. peter: the deficit reduction is thanks to billions in extra dividend payments. a new annual forecast. the cbo now projects a forecast of 514 billion for fiscal 2014. that is less than the projection in its may 203 outlook of 560 billion for 2014 deficit. the cbo also now expects the long-term budget picture to get worse. under a new forecast four weaker economic growth.

it now sees the ten year deficits totaling 7.3 trillion. a trillion dollar increase from its estimate last may. >> deficits have fallen so sharply over the last four years. it has been useful, but it has had a very significant effect on the recovery. they took about a percentage point and a half off the growth of gdp. >> cbo also took a new look at obamacare. they revise that down to 6 million because of all of the technical problems. back to you. dennis: thank you very much.

cheryl: how will the deficit forecast affect americans over the next several years? one of the things about these projections that we are seeing -- it seems to me that it is all about the short term. i we being shortsighted in this? the short term is really what we can use as a gold standard to base fiscal policy. it really accounted for the big change in your long-term projections. what is important is in the near term, we are significantly below the capacity in this economy.

we really will not see the kind of academic growth or the kind of recovery that will make the long-term outlook a little bit more stable. cheryl: we did not see more work to reduce the deficit over the next two-three years. the only, the short-term matter. >> i am always frustrated with the cbo. we already said it was a big change from last year. these numbers sound big. most people do not be a big change from last year. last year we had a substantial reduction on the deficit.

going forward, it will probably be something on the order of three-4% gdp. there are a lot of changes that you can put in. i do not see the deficit. fiscal policy playing a big role in outlook these days. monetary policy plays a big role. cheryl: we continue to see the markets except for today. another thing that a higher tax revenue. many have argued that it can be detrimental to the economy. you do take those higher income earners. they pulled back. are you worried about that now, christian? i think we do need to address

what people at the top are paid. i was against increasing taxes while our recovery was so fragile. our recovery could have been better. it was the wrong time to employ that strategy. certainly a part of our future. what we really need is to get full employment. we need to get it well below 6%. that will bring the economy back to full potential. many of the jobs that are being created our service sector jobs. >> we will make the economy performed better.

not much evidence. other measures do not have much affect on the growth of the economy. monetary policy is on a tightening path because of the concerns about too much cartoony assets being held by the fed. the problem with growth is that productivity growth has slowed. we do not know how to increase productivity growth. it is more likely the productivity growth would increase and we would be able to have faster growth without concerns about inflation. cheryl: gentlemen, thank you. we appreciate you weighing in on the topic. we will see how the numbers shake out.

dennis: my next guest says investors beware. carl bettinger says it has been financed by an even bigger explosion by corporate debt. carl writes the market ticket blog. here is a line tracking stocks over the decade. look at this second line. that blue line there, equities have not even return to the peak of 07. >> the real problem you have here is when you are a stockholder, you are the owner of the company. what is going on here is that corporations are using that as a means to buy back stock and pay dividends. what that does is subtract

assets from that tangible asset. you have a speculative premium which is the rest of the valuation in stock markets. it is an all-time record high compared against everything else. we talked about the leveraging. you have been negative on stocks even when the dow was at 6800. >> we were approximately at the median level for corporate leverage over the period of time over the last dirty years. you are not getting paid to take this risk. that does not mean that it cannot continue. we saw a doubling of the nasdaq. that was a terrible time to be in the market.

>> i will say probably what most people are thinking at home. is the debt financing better than the equity financing? you cannot make this argument blanket across the board for all companies. it makes sense to finance the debt. the history says, that the level of corporate debt never goes down. what happens when rates inevitably do go up and it rolls over? >> what happens when you pay these lofty dividends? the stock market is up 8% when you account for everything.

what is the major cost? dividend payments. dennis: it was commercial paper and overnight paper that led to the meltdown. forty year lows. the payback period of it. can companies state passed this potential crisis. >> short. history says they will not do that. that is the problem. when you look at the historical record, they never do pay it off. dennis: investing the money in new growth.

>> there is a lot of confusion. bottom line, we have an outpouring of support in the bond market right now. dennis: you are never wrong. you just may be early. i now think that the price to paid is about to be paid. look out. hold onto your hats. what are you looking at to tell you now is the time. >> what you look at is what is going on around the world. it was the lead-in to the 2000 crash as well. particularly in china and the other a margin market.

all of this free capital has gone into emerging markets. that stress comes back out, the idea that we will be immune from that is pure fant t. dennis: nice job. cheryl: senator grassley is the ranking member of the committee. he will be here. that is coming up. dennis: the government wants to tell automakers what to do. it is what is bugging me. next. ♪ welcome back. how is everything?

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dennis: we'll have the dow higher today. pfizer is one of the stocks that is moving right now.

it is at 12015 and change. they are making a move up to the north right there. that will be creating jobs in canada. it is time for stocks now and every 15 minutes. what are you watching? nicole: it is soaring on a tough time. take a look at what is going on with michael kors. luxury retailer up 18% today. the shareholders for this one are jumping up and down. the stock has moved to a record all-time high today. the profit in the latest quarter soared 77%. better than expected results for the latest quarter and outlook.

they talked about demand for wholesale and retail. the ceo said they enjoyed this. they enjoyed an outstanding holiday season. the ceo saying exactly that. europe, 73% higher. doing great. dennis: what is bugging me is another overreach by government. this time in the car industry. the obama administration will start forcing carmakers to add new technology aimed at avoiding collisions. isn't that bold and courageous. simply by ordering it, they can make it so. nevermind the cost. government knows best.

that is the kind of arrogance that screwed up obamacare. the feds force it down our throats. already we are seeing self parking cars. automatic braking. rearview video. airbags became standards before the feds ever required it. sometimes government has to intervene. tweet me. should the fed force carmakers to add or freedom to do it on their own. dennis: one down, two to go. the northeast is bracing for more snow and ice. we will go live to the fox weather center. getting to the bottom of the time target and neiman marcus

breaches. ♪

dennis: like the house guest that stays too long, the polar vortex is keeping drivers. >> i wish i had better news. a lot of kids will have snow days the next couple of days. taking a look at where we are seeing the snow right now. kansas, missouri, little rock and a good chunk of arkansas under an ice storm warning. current temperatures cold enough for snow currently in kansas city. all of this mess is moving up towards the mid-atlantic and northeast. winter storm advisories for war than two dozen states.

that is where you see the purple and the pain. those are winter storm warnings extending up towards the northeast. let's track it. that is where we will get that dangerous icing and it could be really dangerous for travel. mainly a rain and/or freezing rain for d.c. up towards philadelphia. we will see some mixing as well for new york. we will see the rain and freezing rain and things will be really treacherous. just plan ahead. kansas city could get eight-12 inches which is a pretty rare event for them this time of year. cheryl: there is new outrage at the irs. it is bringing back employee bonuses even amid the targeting scandal. let's talk about the reasoning from the irs with regards to

these buses. >> they say the bonuses got cut during the so quest or last summer. let's take a listen to what the president said about corruption at the irs in terms of the targeting scandal. here is the president talking to mr. o'reilly. >> that is not what i am saying. >> you are saying no corruption. >> no. there were some bonehead decisions. here is the irs commissioner on why he reinstated the bonuses. let's take a look at what the commissioner is saying.

i believe the answer is clear. this is money best spent. cheryl: i wonder what this means for 2014. >> that is a great question. we have irs officials telling us to expect 30% less customer calls to be answered at the irs. 8000 fewer workers. i tell you something, but irs budget is up about 50% since 2001. the irs, you know, they have

been getting budget increases over the years. in terms of their workload, it really has to do with health reform bearing down. six okay. >> great to see you. dennis: more americans are joining the sharing economy. who is joining the trend in who should be threatened by it. cheryl: trying to get to the bottom of the target and niemann market that preaches. we will have that coming up. ♪ [ male announcer ] this is karen and jeremiah.

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hi, are we still on for tomorrow? tomorrow. quick look at the weather. nice day, beautiful tomorrow. tomorrow is fu of promise. we can come back tomorrrow. and we promise to keep it that way. driven to presve the environment, csx moves a ton of freight nearly 450 miles on one gallon of fuel. what a day.

can't wait til tomorrow. dennis: coming up on this half-hour maia call but on target's cfo on the credit card >> reporter: senator charles grassley on the committees that heard the testimony. microsoft names a longtime insider to replace steve ballmer as ceo and bill gates stepping aside as chairman. the so-called sharing economy catching on growing into a multibillion-dollar industry. a closer look ahead. stocks every 15 minutes. nicole petallides up 92. nicole: 94 at the moment. and financials telling how the market is performing at the market and green on the screen about that in yesterday's performance when the dow went up

126 points. jpmorgan, morgan stanley with barrows, that is very telling the. the volume all later than friday and monday, not so much panicky shortcoming according to ubs floor trading. let's take a look at some other movers i am watching, the gap with positive comments revising from neutral, price target of $50, clorox profits wept, not good news, and apple buying the bandwidth, making people think about their tv ambitions at apple. up 1.5%. dennis: thanks very much. cheryl: consumers and investors worry about target date a breach getting some answers today with senate judiciary committee grilling an all-star cast that included the cfo of target john mulligan and michael kingston.

charles grassley is the new top republican. thank you for being here. why were and the credit-card industry executives put on the panel as well when it was their cards that were frankly breached. >> that is a good question, a subject of a second hearing if you have a second hearing. we are trying to work with the people that are hurt and the ones that have some responsibility, at least the initial responsibility. by the way, the best thing that came out of this hearing was the fact that chairman leahy and viagra with him said we have to have a partnership between the private sector and government because some people say leave the industry alone. other people say you ought to

have a top down -- cheryl: public-private partnership could be with anyone. >> i didn't say that. didn't say privatize it. partner should between government trying to solve the solution of cybersecurity and what happens to target employees? the criminals are so sophisticated and they are ahead of business and government, don't know what will pop up next. we will work together. cheryl: that is what you have to get out of the c i o of target who appeared in front of the committee today. do you feel he answered the fact why their systems are so weak? we have been reporting this, those hackers mostly in eastern europe targeted as many retailers as they could find the weakest retailer they could find was the company that is target. did you ask and did he respond?

>> what you get out of this is to like the europeans did with credit cards, have updated credit cards that can happen so often. is a billion dollar cost for business, they haven't been willing to do that. and what europe does, that would help considerably and they suggested that. you raise a legitimate question about business but you got to realize the secret service is supposed to be on top of this all the time. most of these big companies have the best updated malware that you can have. they still got hit. cheryl: we can do as much as we can to secure our networks no matter what we are talking about, retailer or bank but cybercriminals are smarter than us. does the secret service or the fbi have some type of plan in

place? what are you going to do about it? how can you protect the nation's companies? >> we did not get that answer yet and we will get that answer but it is important to look at this from the standpoint of not just blaming targets or the federal government for not being ahead of it and understanding the criminal element is very sophisticated and probably well-financed and know how to do it and the law doesn't king up with the practice of those people that can do this sort of criminal activity. cheryl: do you get the sense from the president or the vice president that the administration knows that they may need to spend more and some in congress need to spend more on cybersecurity so this doesn't happen again especially if it were to happen to a bank, this would be a more severe situation? >> you are absolutely right and

they know that and two years ago we started on cybersecurity, our own national security and economic security, some of these people take out the grid or take out wall street as an example but this administration has been top-heavy on regulation and other people have been trying to work for this partnership and that has been a basic reason why nothing really big has happened at this point even though there is this understanding that the government needs to do more but the heavy-handed government probably is not going to solve this either which is why -- and another thing. once you pass something one size fits all it doesn't fit all. you have small business that doesn't have the capability of the target as an example. cheryl: this issue isn't going away. thank you, senator. dennis: after months of speculation and culling through the best execs' in the world

microsoft passes over superstar outsider like alan mulally of ford or mark heard capping the 20 year microsoft insider. joline kent joins me with more. >> 22 year veteran, interesting choice by the board that essentially says the management in place is working to a certain extent. comes from an interesting part of the division of cloud computing so that was a focus on that but microsoft actually asked what the first order of business was and this is what he had to say. >> first thing i want to do is focus on removing any obstacles that allow wall street, any individual in the organization to innovate and focus that innovation and things that microsoft can uniquely do. dennis: has the reckless steve

jobs like -- the stock barely budging on this news today and wall street and tech might have listened for a lot more and cleve off the consumer business and video games and shake up the company. >> a shake-up could be in order. remains to be seen. he has only been in for a few hours but looking at other tweets the ceo of box, aaron levy said microsoft has one final shot to rebuild the empire, this is going to be an interesting decade at. minutes later he said the only way microsoft will come back strong is to play offensive the end make bold moves and new categories and what you were opening, there's a lot of expectation that comes from a guy who is an insider. dennis: i didn't hear him endorse it. >> it is the challenge which is a lot of people looking for. dennis: thanks very much. media minute, the worst

superbowl route in 21 years, the most watched tv program in u.s. history. the broncos beat him with must see tv. the super bowl drew 212 million viewers after the them there broncos were hopelessly behind of 2.8%, last year gained half a million people at a given moment, streamed again on line. only 5% of viewers and tweets during the game. that shows the power of live tv and the super bowl in part together and the internet has a long way to go before it calls the media old guard and lastly it shows how many of us still have faith in a peyton manning miracle. in old media, new again, broadcast purses cable operators. local tv station group that formed a new lobby that called of hardball tactics of cable operators and direct satellite companies and tvfreedom.org includes the national association of broadcasters and a philly groups of abc, cbs and

fox. the us supreme court threatens broadcast values, a federal appeals court ruled fcc has no right to rein in cable itself. cheryl: trader joe's, major american cities fighting and winning the case against the grocery chain's expansion plan coming up. dennis: why would they want their citizens to have cheap products? what is called the sharing economy made popular, is growing, and new data on who is buying.

sometimes they just drop in. always obvious. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities.

>> ashley webster with your fox business brief, home prices were up 11% year over year, court logic saying last year was the strongest from price gains since 2005. economists see price growth slowing but available housing inventory remains tight. j.c. penney sales for november and december up 3.1% year over year for the full fourth quarter same-store sales, rose by 2%. the first time the retailer had reported quarterly sales since the second quarter of 2011. ac penny saying its web sales jumped 26% over the last year. u.s. factory orders falling by 1.5% in december, the biggest decline since july according to the commerce department, 18%

drop in aircraft demand led the decline. that is the latest from the fox business network giving you the power to prosper. before those little pieces would get in between my dentures and my gum and it was uncomfortable. [ male announcer ] just a few dabs is clinically proven to seal out more food particles. [ corrine ] super poligrip is part of my life now. ♪ [ male announcer ] you're watching one of the biggest financial services cpanies in the country at work. hey. thanks for coming over. hey. [ male annouer ] how did it come to be? yours? ah. not anymore. it's a very short story. come on in. [ male announcer ] by meeting you more than halfway. it's how edward jones makesense of investing.

dennis: the sharing economy, made by kick starter, valued at $2 billion a year and new data profiling who is buying into this trend has brought to us by andrew reid, the president of tech marketing firm vision critical. you interviewed somewhere 90,000 people on the new sharing economy. tell us about the numbers, how big is it? >> we talked to 90 million people in the u.s. 90,000 in the u.s. canada and the u.k. and found over 200 million people in the u.s. 40% are part of the movement. dennis: 80 million people. >> using things like guber and craigslist and ebay.

dennis: you find much difference by age group, 18 to 34, 35 to 55-year-olds.% >> more of the use in those younger people are more affluent. the trend we are going to see as people grow older will be less likely to want to stay to want to use in department stores but warning to leverage the sharing economy. dennis: what is an incumbent to do? hotel companies have been obsessed, suddenly i can run out and be away and local governments getting in the middle of that and transaction are regulated. what about the hotels instead were to become part of it and sell-offs a month old hotel rooms? >> one of the largest hotel chains, i would be asking me is that. that catching it to people's

apartments. and cannibalizing part of that, they do that quickly. dennis: talk to us, a couple key categories. personal services, talks about custom product, the highest uptake, 18 to 34-year-olds. >> we have the custom products. the same suit, the same item that other people have that uniquely yours. we see the trend continued to. it is personalization, dry cleaning -- dennis: someone else -- >> to get dry cleaning and someone who is dependable. what makes these initiatives were well and what regulates them, reviewing people, the reviews to rent out, what makes

them sustainable and governed them. dennis: as facebook was growing up, started with the kids, the rest of us came along. the sharing economy, the work of the young people,> age 35 and the rest of us older folks they're doing it more and more. >> we work with large brand and inside communities and connect with thousands of customers. big brands, on the conversation to be part of that conversation with a continuous involvement with their customers. dennis: we appreciate you being here, not to that up. dagen: natural gas is soaring today at of two more expected big storms. let's live to the trading pits of the cme, phil flynn has the latest on the contract. did you think we would be at this point? >> there's a lot of denial about

the markup. there is a volatile move. and the cold weather, the last couple years people have been estimating meet the demand growth when it comes to natural gas. if we get an old fashioned into you better watch out because natural-gas is up 7.3%, up almost $0.40. this is the first update in four days, basically went up as high, it was down in the last four, the market is not done yet. but the law, an incredible ride. cheryl: michelob for more bad weather in chicago. phil flynn, thank you. thinking about the west coast and in. california's driest year on record and the agricultural industry bracing for

unemployment to soar. manfred processing created 38% of all central valley jobs. trader joe's dropped plans to open a store in oregon, they planned to open in a historically african-american neighborhood. critics in the neighborhood said it would promote gentrification and displace their presidents. trader joe said the community resistance, the plan was scrapped. in san francisco google is told to move its mystery barge after several companies the company never acquired the proper permits for construction. no word from google or the barge, it has options, they will confirm with barges. that is the west coast minute. dennis: the fed's fourth carmakers to add anti-pollution check or free them to do it on there and. what is bugging me, your responses after the break.

dennis: should the feds 4 carmakers to add anti-pollution tackle or freedom to do it on a donkey to what is bugging me. paul's point, this is a wreck or anything to happen. by car now before becomes a requirement. mike says a feature should be an option. how about watch the road? fed's stay out of the decision and let the market work. pittsburgh auto design by bureaucratic committee. i wonder how that might turn out. if it is anything like obamacare be afraid, be very afraid. cheryl: waiting to pounce, investors woodstock by the stock market wild gyrations watching for a good reentry point. paul shad up next with the numbers you need to watch. dennis: new details on the massive credit card hack at target, the holiday debris

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cheryl: what a see-saw and this is. we are in gains, getting gains on wall street. i am lori rothman. adam: i am adam shapiro, the dallas rebounding since june, stocks gained ground for the third time in 11 sessions. lori: the recent pullback is a healthy and expected bull market correction. he is banking on one more big rally. ashley: the future of microsoft, the tech giant named sasha ma l madel madella, the third person to hold the pose that microsoft. lori: the investigation into the ma