>> what do you have coming up? >> everyone is talking about twitter. what if i told you it takes 700 years to get paid back on investment in twitter based on their earnings. ashley: that is a long time. >> we'll crunch the numbers for you. we have you covered with the biggest stories affecting your money today, from mistakes killing your retirement fund to stress hormones actually causing volatility in the markets. oh, don't forget our epic wall street throwdown. we're talking twitter. before we get to all of that right now the nasdaq and russell 2000 on track for the longest winning streak in seven months. want to let you know, at this moment the dow is down 16 points but s&p 500 is up almost two points. nasdaq up almost 26 points. we have two hours left in the trading day and we are watching your money.

adam: we're watching developments? washington and wall street. we kick it off with lauren simonetti on floor of the new york stock exchange. this market can't get going, can it? >> this dow component, disney, has something it never has done before, $80 a share. a historic high for disney. remember earlier in the month they report the earnings. "frozen" helped them early in the month. netflix, what a winner, new all-time high here, $441 and change for netflix. and you could argue a lot of that has to do with "house of cards", season two. it came out on friday. a web company, said, 16% of the netflix users tuned into one episode to watch the new season of "house of cards." if you look at my twitter feed everybody is talking about the show. this is helping netflix out a

little bit. have you seen "house of cards" season one or two? adam: i haven't watched "house of cards." i have netflix. i haven't activated the fremont. let me ask you a yes. >> yeah. adam: people were surprised on coke earnings missing on revenue. as americans we're not drinking pop by the way we used to. pop is the midwest word, by the way, for soda. >> coke was a disappointment this morning especially north american sales are down. they are making up for coca-cola a little bit with other drinks, dasani and power aid. that stock is down almost four% as i speak. it is contributing to the 17-point loss for the overall dow industrials. coca-cola is buying some of green mountain eventually at end of the this year let us make our soda and other beverages at home. that could help the stock out. adam: i'm looking coke down 3%, lauren. a company can figure out how to make me pay money for tapwater in a bottle, why wouldn't you invest.

two hours left in the trading day. thank you very much, lauren. we have breaking news on the battle over the federal minimum wage. peter barnes is in washington for us and we will get to that a little bit later on. but right now we are going to continue our discussion what is happening in the markets. nasdaq composite and russell 2 thou as we said, on track for the longest winning streak in seven months. ned riley, of reilly asset management, the bulls own the neither future. we have john lekish, no way the bears will eat your lunch. ned, you first. you seem optimistic. why? there is information on the horizon saying time to get out. >> we know that information. the irony the bears are arguing about points that have already been discounted in the market. when i start to look at this market, there's still a huge degree of skepticism. people talk a good game but when you start to look at the money flows, there is only a fraction of what was taken out of market back in 2010 and 2011 that has

come back into this market. the average asset allocation in a 401(k) plan has dropped 10 percentage points in five years. the retirees need this money in the future and they're going to find it, their liabilities will exceed their assets. the next thing i think is the profits in this economy still look good. it has been slow growth. we saw in the first or fourth quarter of last year, companies beat the average on wall street again. so i think that's an encouraging sign. adam: okay. >> one other thing to look for right now is the wall of worry is still out there. people are worried about valuation, speculative bubbles. they're worried about congress. they're worried about obama. when you have enough bricks in the wall of worry that means to me the psychology is really negative behind the numbers. and it means higher stocks price is. adam: ned, hold on there. i give you a softball question, john. i think ned made the case why you should be getting out.

how do you respond to what he said and why should we be getting out? >> a couple of things. i like to go by the numbers. 73% of the time since 1950 january did not go well, so goes january so goes the year. 73% of the time the average move down in the equity markets is about 13%. i think people need to take note of that. to ned's point on 401(k), look, obamacare threw a lot of cold water on that. that will cost average guy 300 to 500 bucks a month. backing away from not only large purchases like cars, which by the way, cars inventories worst it has been since 2009. meaning cars are piling up on the lot. look, the people are have the choice. you want health care or want a 401(k)? i think ned is wrong on that. i think obamacare is huge, huge glass of cold water. adam: i throw in a very simple metric to both of you. forget that as january goes stuff. let's talk about this stuff. debt is increasing for americans.

wages are flat. that means less money to spend on things. talk about coca-cola. we're not buying coke. ned, seems this is precarious time to go into the market, no the a bull time to go in. >> adam, glad you said that here another skeptic about this market i'm talking about. the skeptics are still out there. in terms of the money flows, we will get through obamacare even though it is a detriment to the future growth of this economy. but it is not the only growth to this economy. we have not had the aid of 2/3 of the world in terms of our economic growth over the lass three or four years and we've been able to do pretty darn well. in terms of the savings of individuals, yeah, the savings are critical but i'm telling you right now, people are going to go for the savings. there will be a lot more people signing up for obamacare. >> there is no money flow. there is no money flow. excess reserves 2.3 trillion, climbing up from is .7 trillion last year. there is no money flow. when the fed purchases bonds, banks put that directly into the

federal reserve because policy is putting damper on that. adam: john? >> average wages you're right gone from 54 to 50,000 in the last five years. adam: john and ned, i apologize. we have breaking news. i have to stop the discussion right there. next time pick it up there because i think wages will be far more important going forward. >> i agree. adam: this is discussion about wages and battle over federal minimum wage. peter barnes has latest in washington. what is it, peteer? >> congressional budget office release ad report that the president's proposal to increase the minimum wage to $1.10 an hour over the next three years would cost the economy about 500,000 jobs. so it would cost, according to this new report just released, quote, once fully implemented in the second half of 2016, the $10.10 an hour option would reduce total employment by about 500,000 workers or 0.3% of the workforce and cbo ads there is

about 2/3 chance the effect could be in a range that is below that number but could also be as high as a loss of jobs of one million workers by the second half of 2016, adam. adam: peter, i have to ask you a quick follow-up question on this and i ask it sarcastically based on what we got from the administration last week, that 500,000 to one million jobs lost. well administration those people will now have luxury looking for another job? we saw them try to spin the last numbers with obamacare. are they putting positive spin on this? >> they can't on this one because what you're referring to there that report on obamacare that the cbo came out with said that obamacare could cost the equivalent of two million jobs by 2017 because workers would have incentives not to look for work or might have incentives to cut back their work or not work at all. this looks at the actual demand-driven need for workers

by employers. this looks at the top line, kind of gdp number and, and this is not, this is, this is an apples and oranges number and sure to trigger enormous debate as this issue goes forward on capitol hill. adam: peter barnes, thank you very much. headline again, raising minimum wage, federal minimum wage would cost jobs to the economy. while economists are split on this, that is the cbo headline right now. thank you, peter. twitter shares are tested today as insiders get their first chance to sell millions of shares. you know our own charlie gasparino has a lot to say about that. he is battling it out with twitter analyst victor ant in a wall street throwdown. i ask him why 700 years is important in the twitter discussion. painful mistake, killing your retirement fund. simple one too. millions of retirees are losing out on their hard-earned money. your wallet doesn't want to miss this one. more "money" ccming up.

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adam: more pictures from the ukraine. check this out. this is the capital kiev in the

ukraine and the united states says it is al appalled by violence taking place that is the protesters village in center of capital which has been set ablaze. nine people have been killed according to reports from reuters. fox news channel is on top of this. we'll keep watching developments out of ukraine. it's a tweet for all. nearly 10 million twitter sales are eligible for sale as the first post-ipo lockup period expires. this sets the stage for today's wall street throwdown and we have victor anthony and our senior correspondent charlie gasparino. let me start with you, victor. actually a small amount of shares are eligible to hit the open market today. are people gobbling them and what does it signify? >> only 2% of the common shares. the one to worry about is april where roughly 80% the common shares. so i think it is significant. i think investors should bypass the small lock up to see what happens in april whether or not

the company executes. adam: where we kind of get the dump of shares. >> right. adam: charlie they're up 1 1/2%. >> what i like my guest now he can actually add as opposed to bolling. and he makes a great point this is a small amount that shouldn't have impact on the stock. as a matter of fact the stock is up a little bit today. i would say this, listen the big lockup period goes when? >> april 24th. >> april 24th. you have that headwind and you have the headwind the company is still unprofitable. adam: excluding one-time items. >> still unprofitable company with a huge market cap. adam: 27 billion. >> i don't care what in says, this company is not worth $27 billion. far be it from me, i'm not giving you investment advice out there. i will say this, if you're average mom-and-pop person, forget about a wall street speculator you can lose your

money so many better ways. i'm not sure you will but you are rolling the dice. adam: his best friend is eric bolling. are you on twitter. >> i'm precluded from owning the stock. >> bolling wasn't. adam: charlie brought up, exclude one-time itees they made a profit of $10 million on a market cap of 27 billion. "newsweek" made crunch of numbers, 700 years to earn the ininvestment back. >> 700? adam: 700 years. isn't this highly overvalued company? >> it is also extremely fast-growing company. so you have triple digit revenue growth rates. triple digit ebitda growth rates. i focus roughly 100% growth ebitda next couple years. that is what i look at. they're early years of monetizing and advertising and user growth. so you want to get in now to ultimately benefit over the next several years. this is not, this is stock that is not for the average investor. very, very long only funds.

very long time horizon who could stomach volatility in the stock over the -- >> at least you're honest as opposed to bolling because here is the reality. it is not for the average investor. it is, this is a stock that you can lose your money so many better ways. i don't mean eric is dishonest. he is just full of himself a lot, especially when it comes to stuff like this. the reality is this. if you're the average guy, you don't want to be in this stock unless of course you bought it, only time i heard anybody tell average people to get in on the stock is unaverage person that buys it at ipo at 29 and wants to see the thing go to 70 so he or she can flip it. this is not a stock -- they have not really proven themselves. they may be the greatest company in the world in five years but between now and then, it is going up and down up and down. if you're the average person why do you even need to be there? adam: on that note we'll say thank you. i think eric bolling is waiting outside the studio. >> with his baseball bat. adam: appreciate you being here. your comment about volatility

and this is not for the average investor. >> traditional investors with long-term time horizon. >> not much of a throwdown. adam: i won't be here. it will be melissa's show and have you back in april. we'll talk about this this will be a big one. thank you, guys. >> sure. adam: a lot of people are making a very expensive mistake, draining, draining their retirement accounts because of it. are you one of them? that's next and you don't want to miss it. uggs, some people don't like the look of these cozy keep skin boots but right now investors love them -- sheepskin boots. that is easy one to answer. do you ever have too much money?

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adam: we're watching your investments right now. you can see there are new lows for several companies. shares of fresh del monte produce are falling to a 2 1/2-year low after reporting bigger than expected fourth quarter net loss. falling to new lows, kansas city southern, seadrill, dresser-rand and atlas pipeline. all financial planning in the world may not mean a thing because there is retirement fund killer waiting to get you. good news for you, we have one of the top financial advisors in the nation to help save your day. ric edelman, joins us from fairrax, virginia. i appreciate you doing this. it is so hard for average people like me who did not do well in math to appreciate compounding. >> right. adam: at the end of the day if you take part in 401(k), you do all the things you supposed to do, the fees you are paying to the company managing your 401(k) fund, may actually eat away at your retirement as goes

year-over-year over year as opposed to investing in index fund. why? >> you're absolutely right. people don't understand the power of a percent. over entire working career, extra 1% fee per year will cost you about 30% in total ending value. so it is really important thaw keep those fees low. adam: so, to put this in english, for instance, i could go, money out of my own pocket in an invest and say, vanguard index 500. it mimics the s&p 500. bingo, bango, paying on fees there, maybe 1%. if i do it through the 401(k), because most 401(k) managers have a fund that will mimic the index, the s&p index, i may wind up losing money because the fees i pay to those managers are not only a little bit greater but i'm going to lose return i would get based upon the percent i'm paying? >> your you are return will be lower, you're absolutely right. if your fund is charging you

1.5% and, you choose that fund, you're going to earn a lot less than if you chose a fund that charged you 1 1/2 half of 1%. the key is to make sure the funds you're using in your 401(k) are cheap, inexpensive funds. it is that simple. adam: not only should you look for a cheap, inexpensive fund, best of luck. best thing you could do is choose index fund, is it not? most money managers don't outperform in long haul, 15, 20 years, don't beat the index. >> the reason they don't beat the index because of their fee. imagine that you're in 100-yard dash against me but you have a ball and chain tied to your ankle and i don't? that is the equivalent of the fee. we're in a equivalent race. we know that the stock market, since 1926 averaged about 10% a year. if you're charging 1% a year and i'm not, guess who is going to win? simple as that. adam: simple as that. give people info they can use because we are somewhat our

hands are tied with 401(k) choices. first in 401(k) k options for an index fund and find one with cheap costs. what do you consider cheap coo? 1% or less? what is the metric? >> cheap would be .1 of 1%. .2 or .3%. not 1%. that is very expensive. 1 1/2% is ridiculously expensive. adam: if i can't get that in my 401(k) what do i do? >> if you don't have choices available lobby your boss. your boss has incentive to give you the kind of cheap funds you want, not only because he wants to make you happy. this is an employee benefit. because if he doesn't do that, you could sue him for violating his fiduciary duties. so you would be surprised how cooperative your boss might be at introducing these very inexpensive funds. adam: all right. listen, i appreciate you joining us. ric edelman. this is important stuff. we'll post it because people need to lobby their c-suite or

their bosses and look for the index fund and cheap costs within your 401(k). appreciate it. all the best to you. want to take you back to ukraine and kiev which is erupping. nine people dead according to reuters. the united states issued a statement saying it is appalled by the violence in the capitol of ukraine. to give you perspective where it is, it is 1400 kilometers northwest of sochi where the olympics are taking place. that is what, roughly 870 miles? this is live picture what is happening in kiev, ukraine. we'll stay on top of this and fox news channel which is monitoring the situation.

>> talking about your retirement and your investments. now we will talk about puerto rico. they are coming to market in march. roughly $2.8 billion debt

offering. this will likely take place in march according to the government of puerto rico. they do want to point out that no counterparty is exercising acceleration. this is important. nobody, as of yet, has required them to put up the collateral that would usually be triggered by the downgrades. again, puerto rico announcing they will come to market with $2.86 billion bond. pharmaceutical deal fueling big stocks today. >> this is a deal we have not spoken about all day. let me show you write it right now. up basically 6%. very big for a stock like this.

mckesson hitting an all-time high. this is the deal between both of these stocks. they are rallying and hitting new highs. >> all right. lauren simonetti, thank you very much. according to a new study, raging stress hormones are calling it safe when the markets get tough. that could lead us to our next major financial crisis. we have a former trader himself on the telephone. he is joining me from cambridge england. this is about. when a trader gets stressed, they tend to take less risk.

>> that is part of it. we are looking at a slightly different mechanism. when the volatility of the market goes up, the stress hormones of the traders go up with them. we are designed to be very sensitive to levels of uncertainty. when we are uncertain about something, we do not know what is coming. our body prepares us for the unexpected. >> quarters all. >> yes. it is the long-acting one. the war, the last risk a traders willing to take on? >> it is not quite that simple.

>> you get a short-lived increase. it is actually very enjoyable. we like taking risks. the important thing to remember is that these stress hormones are supposed to return back to normal quite quickly. it has very different effects on us. they can lead to type two diabetes. what we just found out is a can lead to risk versson. when volatility spikes, it will freeze up in risk aversion.

they do not take risk. they are scared. they do not take risks. thank you, sir. we want to bring in trader andrew king now. lauren simonetti is back on the floor of the new york stock exchange. you just heard the results of the study. it would appeared that we are willing to take less risk. >> a study is a study. for myself, i totally disagree with this statement. when the market was going down, i was always sure. anytime we rallied, i always got bigger. i loved every single minute of it. when the market was crumbling i

was looking to put on more risk. not less risk. from my point of view, absolutely not. volatility creates opportunity. without volatility there is no opportunity. adam: remind me never to let you drive. >> risk is the name of the game. you have a hard job, adam. a job that would make many people nervous. traders are used to risk. adam: i have to let both of you go. i appreciate it. both of you. thank you very much. i want to go back to puerto rico. they will come to market with a $2.8 billion bond sale. this, of course, follows the big thhee rating firms.

they are going to show, we hope, the investor class that they are still worth investing in. up next, get ready for some sticker shock at the gas pump. no matter where you are filling up the tank. we will tell you how much worse it is going to get. do not miss it. also an exclusive interview with ford. it is all starting at 4:00 p.m. eastern. it is all about money. ♪ fall in ve, get marrie ha a couple of kids, [ children laughing ] move to the country, and live a long, happy life together where they almost never ght about money. [ dog barks ] becae rit after they get married, they'll find some financial folks who will talk to them about preparing early for retirement and be able to focus on other things, like each other,

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the 2014 e-class. see your authorized dealer for exceptional offers through mercedes-benz financial services. ♪ >> i am cheryl casone with your fox business brief. the national association of homebuilders dropped to 46. that is down ten points from january. builders were concerned about the cost of labor. they approved an eight years labor contract extension. targets massive data breaches costing financial institutions more than $200 million.

i am cheryl casone. ♪

adam: "countdown to the closing bell" is coming up. liz claman is just moments away. liz: it is supposed to be merger

monday, instead it is merger tuesday. we do 3:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. eastern. a fox business exclusive with the ceo of forest labs. bret saunders just took over. he just started moving with this company. the next thing you know, he has just been acquired. we are going to talk to him in a fox business exclusive. did activists pay too little for this company? right now we are well above that at the moment. this is an interesting move. he comes out a winner. let's see what the rest of the investors do. we also want to memorize this date. may 6. it has to do with twitter.

we have a panel discussion on why twitter may start to gyrate crazily. we will explain all of it coming up. you cannot miss the discussion. you also have to watch liz and "countdown to the closing bell." see you in a few minutes. crude oil prices climbing. you cannot escape the impact of the pop no matter where you drive. gas prices topped the three dollars per gallon. senior petroleum analyst joins me now. i thought we were in a new era of energy independence in that gas prices would drop. i was wrong. why? >> it is not all roses.

preparing for the increase in demand. we have also seen oil prices take a big jump up. the increase n oil price, fueling up gasoline prices. it diminishes how much refineries are producing. >> to the refineries ever, do they ever lie or mislead about pulling capacity off-line in order to drive up the price? >> well, you know, i cannot comment about that. who knows. i suppose it is a possibility. >> the more expensive blinds are what they will be producing going forward. they have to put in the regulatory different times of gasoline. >> of course. it is kind of a two-phase process here.

the pump prices soar because of refinery maintenance and production. in about a month or two, we will see the gist of that increase because of summer gasoline. that is something that really does not take place until april or so. i know some areas are already converting. much of the country, that will be april or may. adam: patrick, thank you. i appreciate you letting me put you on the spot. all the best to you. >> thank you, adam. adam: big banks taking a hit as small things come out on top. jeff flock is at glenview state bank in illinois. he has all the details of what this could mean for you. jeff: small banks picking up the slack where the big banks left

off. this is where the mortgage lending takes place. i want to show you the trend. take a look at the numbers. in 2009, smaller banks had 39% of the share of the mortgage market. it is now closer to 60%. executive vice president, why is that? >> i think customers want to talk to someone. the biggest asset for most people that they own. >> a better ability to speak one-on-one with guys like you. a lot of people have an attitude about it. >> all i can speak for is us. our mission is to advise people to get them into the right programs. jeff: fannie mae who you sell some of your loans to see a trend may be headed back another way. take a look at what fannie mae

had to set about the future. there is a significant probability that long-term, the large lender piece of the business will get back on track and will increase. you think, not necessarily so. you like this business. >> i do like this business. it is part of being a community bank. we are helping people with their investments. small investments, large investments and also their lending needs. jeff: it is a bit of a throwback. smaller lenders, not only you, let's run through some of the companies. penny mac, they should start, these are companies that are really getting some traction now and taking away from the bigger banks.

there you go. glenview state bank. one of many around this country doing mortgage business. nice to should you buy this one? that is next. ♪ for over a dade

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♪ adam: we want to keep you posted on the developments. it looks like they are has just been an explosion.

that is the capital of ukraine. protesters have been staging their demonstrations. the united states has issued a statement on what is taking place. it is appalled by violence. force will not resolve the crisis. this is coming from the white house. nine people, according to reuters, have been killed. the situation is not under control. about 900 miles northwest of sochi which is where the winter olympics are taking place. we will have more on this on fox business and fox news channel. this year's winter storms have been hitting businesses pretty

hard. joining me now is a retail analyst. thank you for joining us, jeff. it goes well beyond that. if you go back a couple years ago, the winters were unseasonably warm. certainly, in terms of the blue business, it is a beneficiary.

yes. new running products. there are sevvral products. ugg is the majority of the business. adam: they are up today. they are not far from their 52 week high. >> it is important to understand that the weather can help ugg sales. it is about a company that has moved forward very aggressively with product development and other things.

i think the answer is to a degree that they continue to be successful. adam: as i wrap up, for the people watching who may choose to invest in better outdoor, what is it that they have innovated that make you optimistic? >> it is interesting. it is great product. what they have really done is come up with a derivative of that product. they have different elements of style that have resonated very well. they even have great man's product that is not the original classic ugg boot. adam: keeping your feet warm and dry. we really appreciate you joining us. thank you very much.

coming up, gold is having their best charts of the year. some are saying it is a correction. others are saying it is fear in china. we will be back with the analysis all where this is all headed and what you can do to protect your money. ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] this m has aaccomplished research and analytical group at his disposal. ♪ but even more pressive is how he puts it to work for his clients. ♪ morning. morning. thanks for meeting so early. oh, it's not a big deal at a. come on in. [ male announcer ] it's how edward jones makes sense of investing. ♪

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adam: whether it's on wall street or main street, here's who's making money today in the deal of the day. drug maker activist is planning to buy forest laboratories for $25 billion to focus on brand name medications. forest labs means carl aye can's making about $630 million today. shares of coca-cola are fizzing out after reporting a decline in profit. sales slipped in developed markets as consumers turn to healthier options. warren buffett's berkshire berkshire hathaway is losing about $600 million today.

gold is up for the ninth straight session, and there is a new top gold consumer in the world. china. china has taken other the top spot from india. rbc wealth management senior vice president george gerald knows precious metals more than just about anybody. one of the reasons this has happened is india raised its tax on gold. >> correct. adam: but there are a lot of people saying that the big consumption of gold within china indicates people there are freaked about their own economy collapsing. >> yes, they are. and also, of course, there was that bank of japan lending program that was announced over the weekend. adam: yes, over the weekend. >> so you have this divergence in gold that con founded a lot of traders last friday when gold rose quite a bit, up $14 at the end while the stock market had triple doubling psychiatry gains. adam: that's what i want to ask you about.

it usually means people are worried about an economy. we have people trying to figure out where to put their investments, and out used to be in gold was going up, you want to get out of stocks, but that's not the case. >> no, it isn't. gold is trading on its own. gold for a long time has been a misunderstood asset. and then, of course, last year with the large jump up in the stocks, about 28% for the year, gold was down about 25% to 28% for the year, and a lot of portfolios became underinvested. and that meant that now this year as gold starts to regain some stature as an asset allocator's tool, more people are wondering did i miss the boat by not investing last year. adam: yeah. >> and so portfolio managers are looking at gold with new eyes. adam: george, i apologize that i have to end it there, because i would love to get more close with gold so i can appreciate it more, but the trading day's going to wrap up in about an hour. we want to let you know that liz

claman's going to help you continue to make money because "countdown to the closing bell" is next. ♪ ♪ liz: irish eyes are smiling. dublin-based activist buying forest labs in a deal valued at $25 billion. guess who's sitting pretty? billionaire activist carl icahn tweeting this proves again that activism works. it does for him, what about others? what do twitter insiders really think about the future of their company? today they can literally leave the nest and cash in their stocks. do they fly the coop or sit pretty on the stock, is an even bigger judgment day just around the corner? plus, stressed out. we've all experienced it, but wait until you hear what high levels of stress hormones do to traders. it might just change the way you