cheryl: were you even surprised that they were going to double next year? stuart: doubling and maybe tripling, that is a shock. cheryl: stuart, thank you very much. adam: it will shift. cheryl: it is all about the fed during this hour. the warning styles from fedex. a winter much worse than feared. general motors begins. toyota finds more than a billion dollars. attorney general eric holder saying he hopes this case will serve as a model for other cases. adam: the race for your wrist. time running out for apple. cheryl: going out after working

out. lulu lemmons newline for women. could you really work out in a dress. this is catching investors eyes today. adam: we want to go through today's top stories. cheryl: peter barnes is standing by. peter: looking for three things today. it continues to wind down the quantitative easing program. the fed is considering changing its guidance on when it will start to raise short-term interest rates. right now it says it plans to keep rates near zero, at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6.5%.

getting closer into the threshold. some economists expect the fed to update its plan for unwinding its massive trillion dollar balance sheet. we will also be getting new economic forecast. we are not expecting a huge change, but we do expect a lot of talk about the bad weather. cheryl: peter, thank you so much. let's head to the floor of the new york stock exchange. markets are treading water completely today. nicole: no doubt. we are really in this weight and see mode.

it will be key. we have some strength in healthcare. let's take a look at some of these healthcare names. looking at pfizer. merck and pfizer are actually lower. eli lilly up one quarter of a percent. johnson & johnson. take a look here at verizon, sprint, no pf just to name a few. back to you. adam: thank you very much, nicole. fedex is getting iced out, literally. the shipping giant reported disappointing numbers. whether leading to big mrs. purple profit and revenue. donald, a lot of people will look to the fed for an indication about the economy. what does this tell us?

>> it tells us we will continue to see growth in e-commerce. the real problem for fedex, though, was the weather. the response to it, ironically, in the quarter were said the situation from an earnings perspective. they dow dealt with it by throwing money at the situation. they paid their people more to work more overtime. they pay their people who volunteered to work on christmas day. i had a package delivered to mike -- to my house on christmas day. adam: was it all because of the response to the bad weather? >> this was weather related. last year was the second warmest most mild winter.

this winter, of course, has been anything but mild. they were 99 plus% online. adam: fedex was able to grab a some of the market share. >> i fully expect them to. certainly, that is something we pointed out in the know we published yesterday morning. fedex should be able to translate this into future gains. this quarter will be bad.

it should be good going forward. adam: the ground volume shipping is up and also they are improving their margins. it seems the stock may be a bit expensive right now. do you disagree with that? >> no, i do not. we downgraded the stock recently.

cheryl: hopefully they are listening to you. thank you very much. >> we have a business alert for you right now. the plane was sadly designed and met at safety levels. they makes seven recommendations for further improvements. faa oversight. the fire prompted regulators to ground the plane for three and a half months last year. adam: toyota reached a settlement with the justice department today avoiding criminal charges.

it comes on the heels of a four-year investigation. they protected its brand ahead of the customers. adam: toyota shares are not down terribly. athletic apparel maker lulu lemon launching a new line of clothing this morning. it is meant to have a more hi

and look. half of the products on the line sold out in one day. take a look at the stock right now. cheryl: also pandora announcing plans to increase fees for its ad free version. pandora says the fee hike should affect 3.3 billion listeners. a fraction of it 250 registered million users. authorities revealed more information regarding the path the airline may have taken. ashley webster joins us with more.

ashley: the search continuing in two main areas. it is one area that the main focus in the southern ocean about 1600 miles off the coast of australia. this is an area that is huge. about 1500 miles due west, southwest from the western coast of australia. very deep water out here, by the way. some 23,000 feet deep in some places. it will be extremely hard. it really is like finding a needle in a haystack. unlike the size of australia itself. remember, the battery on the plane lost only 30 days and then it stops transmitting. that means searches have just 18 days left. they began appealing to other countries to volunteer data

after thailand released its radar information 11 days after the flight disappeared. one new development today. investigators are trying to recover delete it files on that homemade flight simulator taken from the home of the planes captaincy in here. the fires were erased on february the third. do not speculate too much on that. background checks have indicated nothing to indicate a possible motive. for the relatives of the missing passengers, each passing day continues to bring more despair and anger. those emotions boiled over today.

cheryl: thank you for the update. adam: comcast ceo wants to change that. cheryl: general motors working to ensure frustrated dealerships over that massive recall. kelley blue book on what drivers need to know about this. adam: the virtual reality devices. ♪ designed by hp, will give ups over twice the performance, using forty percent less energy. multiply that across over a thousand locations, and they'll provide the same benefit to the environment as over 60,000 trees. that's a trend we can all get behind.

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adam: gm stock is down today for the first time this week. jeff flock explains bad news for its biggest competitor has gm worried. jeff: take a look at the intraday another massive recall. take a look at why.

it is because of that toyota press conference. announcing that settlement. essentially, if you look at what they said there in washington today, it was a warning to gm. essentially, other car companies should not repeat the mistake that toyota made. it was echoed by fox. i think it also probably cast some dow on what the ultimate cost to gm will be. $100 million in expected. that is very little. it is a very small fix. it will be hard for them to not make the same sort of penalty.

of course there is the deafening crash claims. that we do not know about. a lot of them answered questions today. it probably put a little bit more fear into gm's hearts. adam: jeff flock in chicago. thank you very much. adam: the scandal surrounding to popular car countries have many wondering what the reaction will be. to answer that, we are joined by kelly blue book executive. toyota just settled this today. this is four years ago. do you think that customers will stick with this company for that

long? >> i think that the goal is to make it much shorter. it will be vastly different than what toyota did. i think toyota wants to put this in their rearview mirror today. i think general motors wants to get to that place very quickly. cheryl: the media will not stop talking about this because it will continue. focusing on mary bar and how she has handled this, she came out, publicly apologized. toyota did not do that. we barely got the ceo out of japan to testify in d.c. does this hurt her and does it hurt gm? >> i think that this is the right thing to do.

they are trying to avoid what has just happened to toyota. they are trying to be much more forthright about this. both with the regulators and in the court of public opinion. cheryl: we will see more and more of these stories come out. this is an american brand. general motors, we used to call a government motors. does that help the company's image? >> here is a company that was rescued by the americans taxpayer.

cheryl: do we love them because we save this iconic brand? >> like everything else in america. we are looking from positives from them in the future. now scratching their heads in going, why did we do this. cheryl: we will see how the public reacts. thank you. adam: check out shares of first solar. tesla ads have everybody raving. the best part, he was made by fans of only $1500.

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cheryl: starting with google getting into smart watches. it may be launched as early as today or by early next week. google beating apple to the punch. will women want to wear it? will men want to wear it? will it be a good-looking thing to put on your wrist.

apple seems to be fairly behind the game here. this could really kill apple. >> google made a smart move. that led to the apps coming in for the wearable watch. one thing i will say, google buying nest, you can voice activate your homes home appliances, that can be done through the rest. you wear this headset. no price for it yet. no release date for this thing. they are really basically rolling over the developers at the developer conferences.

i am thinking, where would i want to be. probably in bed. [laughter] cheryl: at the same time -- >> what happens when you take it off. adam: everyone is raving about a sand made tesla commercial. ♪ cheryl: this little boy gets in the car and he is driving off into outer space. this video, 62nd spot, made by

college grads by just $1500. it is going viral already. i love it. cheryl: who would have thought that madison avenue would have to watch youtube for ideas. >> tesla is half the market value of gm and ford right now. cheryl: thank you. adam: we have some news for you out of the house of the mouse. a total picture for fiscal 2013 dropped by 15%. some say pension funds and

questioning the chairman and ceo pay off. movie news sometimes after 2015. wait, there is more. star wars fans excited for the seventh star wars movie. it will take place 30 years after return of the jedi. it will feature some familiar faces. the movie is set to begin shooting in may and london. shares of disney up over 45%. cheryl: bringing back old characters from 30 years ago. janet yellen and the fed takes center stage.

cheryl: coming up on 30 minutes away. the focus will be on quality. we are front running the decision where economists -- adam: a look at who is a bantu is down on the dow. ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] this m has an accomplished research and analytical group at his disposal. ♪ but even more pressive is how he puts it to work for his clients. ♪ morning. morning. thanks for meeting so early. oh, it's not a big deal at all. come on in. [ male announcer ] it's how edward jones makes sense of investing. ♪

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cheryl: we are less than 30 minutes away from the fed decision. markets have taken a pause from that two-day rally. let's bring in nicole petallides from the floor of the new york stock exchange. defensive, defensive, defensive right now. >> no doubt and wee watched the dow jones industrials go back and forth all day long. we started off in the red. spiked to the green. it has been red green, red green, all day long. all the major averages are

within .1 of 1% from the unchanged line. everybody is keying into the fed this afternoon. look at gold. watching metals overall. gold is pulling back. down two days in a row. down again today. back to you. cheryl: nicole, thank you. adam: we're just about 25 minutes away from the latest fomc decision. janet yellen's first as chair. all signs point to the fed continuing with the tapering program of its monthly bond buying and reducing asset purchases by 10 billion bucks. we have steven ol' lynner, american enterprise independence statute and former fed economy. he believes the fed will continue to tapering. the big thing is guidance. what will they do about the box they cornered themselves regarding unemployment? >> well i think they're going to drop the unemployment rate threshold at today's meeting, the 6 1/2% threshold. become ob. the unemployment rate is nearly

at 6 1/2%. a couple months it could be lower than that at that point it will be completely uninformative. so i think they will drop that threshold and they will draft some new qualitative guidance hopefully will give markets a sense of what their plans are. cheryl: steven, what do you expect the decision making to be at this meeting? when mr. bernanke had his final meeting he had unanimous consent and support from the board. this time though, mr. fisher, mr. plosser, may be those swing votes. do you think that has any effect on the beginning of janet yellen's tenure as fed chairwoman? >> i don't think it will have any effect on the actual decision that the fomc reaches. those two fomc members as you have noted tend to be on the hawkish end. they have dissented frequently in the past but they're too far out of the mainstream to affect the decision. so it might not be unanimous decision but they're not going to influence what the fomc ultimately does today. adam: so janet yellen, like her predecessor is focused on jobs,

jobs, jobs but if they move that target unemployment rate out, what kind of guidance can they give the market to keep people calm? because they want to keep things stable. >> right. think they have a pretty tough communication job as you mentioned because they're not going to put in a new quantitative threshold. they will not put in an up employment rate at 6% because they how to know to interpret what is happening in the labor market where the unemployment rate is dropping faster than expected yet they still think there is a lot of slack in the labor market. the developments have been confusing. i think they will try to emphasize they expect policy to remain highly accommodative for a considerable time from now. they have language in the statement from january that they can keep in there, that i think will signal to investors that will not be a rate hike this year. it will be in 2015 at the earliest. and that language says that, they expect policy to remain

highly accommodative for a considerable statement after their asset purchases end. while on their $10 billion per month per meeting taper that would occur late this year. so considerable time after late this year getting well into -- cheryl: stephen, out of the box, we get the press conference and do you think she will address issues like dodd-frank? dodd-frank, ukraine, emerging markets, currencies, the stress test tomorrow, do you think any of that she would be, would answer any of those types of questions today? >> i think she will give generalities in response to those questions. you're right, they're probably going to come up. she will not be asked strictly about monetary policy as bernanke was not. the questions came from all over the place. i think she will be forth as she can be the same way bernanke was. he tried to bance parent. he is speaking on behalf of the a committee. he is not talking for himself.

he needs to be cautious in terms what he says. the answers tend to be phrased in generalities because in part they don't know what the future is going to bring so they can't give precise predictions. >> we'll stop the discussion there for now. we'll pick it up later on. stephen ol' lynner, thank you very much. >> you're welcome. cheryl: we have 20 minutes to go to the fed decision. we're watching the ipo market this year. it is one of the most anticipated ipo as, alley bob barks talk that it will head to the new york stock exchange. not so fast. charlie gasparino is saying i hear something else. don't count out nasdaq. adam: we're minutes away from learning how janet yellen and fed plan to dial back stimulus. the markets are clinging to every word so you don't go anywhere. ♪ (announcer) scottrade knows our clients trade and invest their own way.

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>> other business headlines for you, german luxury automaker bmw plans to increase production capacity in the united states. the plant in south carolina expects to produce 350,000 this year up from last year's 300,000. bmw is seeking record u.s. car sales and higher profits in 2014. jpmorgan is selling its physical commodities business for $3.5 billion to mecuria

energy group after new regulations restricted the bank's ability to control, power plants, warehouses and oil refineries. general mills reported mixed third quarter results. revenue of 4.38 billion came in just below the forecast. the maker of yoplait and cheerios says severe winter weather dampened sales performance. that is the latest from fox business, giving you the power to prosper.

cheryl: here we go. less than 20 minutes until we hear the fed's plan for the$5 billion monthly bond-buying program and short-term interest rates which have been set near zero, get this, since december of 2012. want to show you what the markets are doing right now. the dow and s&p going over the unchanged line, back and forth, back and forth, 50/50, we're talking about defense people. i want to show you sectors moving like consumer staples and

health care sector because investors are getting defensive. aetna, express scripts, a piece of this news broke in the last hour that premiums will maybe double, potentially triple for some americans next year thanks to warm kiar. this is one of sectors we're watching as we move into the big fed decision, adam, a few moments away. adam: thank you, cheryl. does nasdaq care about getting the alibaba ipo. sources say maybe not but charlie gasparino is here with exclusive details. charlie. >> nasdaq officials tell fox business network that they believe they're still in the running own though there are lots of reports, we were first to report nyse, new york stock exchange is still in the lead. why is that? a lot of underwriter angst. people doing the deal, goldman sachss, morgan stanleys, they have bias against the nasdaq these days following the flubbed facebook ipo they were a part of. not only that the implosion of the nasdaq trading system a

couple months after that. there is bias against nasdaq. despite that nasdaq officials say they're still in the running for alibaba ipo. when you look at this stuff, look at the business model an talk to people at the place. here you get the feeling, yes they will mange a pitch for this. yahoo! partially owns a piece of alibaba. yahoo! i believe is his listed on nasdaq. there are ways in on this thing. they're telling less reliant on the quote, unquote listing business. this is firm, nasdaq, the stork market, less of a stock market right now and much more under greifeld, this is the last couple years, much more of an information gathering, processing business. they bought thomson reuters. they give you pr advice. there are way that is they do things for companies involving information, providing them with market information that is moving them away from the notion of a traditional market. we should point out they still match buyers and sellers of stock. adam: that is where they make their money. >> that is much, that is commodity advertising business. that is becoming, there is

competition from all the dark pools and all these other players that are out there. also listing, if you think about it, nasdaq doesn't get paid that much for its listing. it is paid 50 grand a pop. there is lot of infrastructure and a lot of marketing you have to do for that stuff as well. if you look what greifeld has done, this is what i'm getting from people inside nasdaq it is moving away from traditional market business, information processing gathering something to help companies with market information to provide, providing was the word i couldn't think of, that is what it is, that is where they're moving toward. less of a stock market. yes they would like to get the alibaba ipo they don't believe it is catastrophic. cheryl: they may not fight for it. nyse is the one with their back against the wall trying to retain their leadership in the ipo space and they have done a decent job recently. maybe not -- >> if you notice, nyse has made inroads into those tech ip offs, right? some of it come as mistakes from the nasdaq but be clear here

about what nasdaq is. it is less of a market these days. it is much more of an information-providing, crunching numbers type company that handles, that it gives to corporate america and, you know, they are less reliant on this business, which is very infrastructure-heavy, right? you have to get people. you have to market. that is the whole thing. they want to marketing bonanza. it's costly. i wonder if it actually pays for itself. adam: if you're alibaba, if that is actually the case, wouldn't you naturally then go to nyse? >> yes, maybe. and maybe nasdaq doesn't care as much. listen everybody is talking like if they lose this is it catastrophic for bob greifeld? i don't think so. i think he built a diversified business. he gets enough tech ipos. you don't have to spend a gazillion dollars on marketing so be it. i'm telling you. i think they're okay. cheryl: we're getting ready for the press decision, charlie. are you looking forward to the first press conference of janet

yellen. bringing that new york attitude to d.c. >> went to fort hamilton high school with a good friend of mine, ron vincent who has been on the show. ron is long-time broker formerly of morgan stanley. we all know what she is is. she is ben bernanke on steroids. adam: a little shorter. >> right. maybe not the muscullr, but in terms of policy, she's a dove. i don't think, the markets like this stuff. at some point i think logic dictates when you print -- adam: four trillion on the balance sheet. >> if you put something, make enough of something, the price goes down because you know, there is more, more quantity than people buying and that is what we're doing with our dollar right now. cheryl: it will be interesting to see how she respond to reporter questions. she will be asked about everything. it will be no-holds barred. >> eminently qualified. she was more qualified on paper than summers if you look at her background. she is really a lefty. she believes in the heavy hand

of monetary policy to cure all evils and ills. adam: you get last word. i wonder when you call their sources, how you react, the dreaded word this is charlie gasparino. >> the sources don't mind talking to me. it is other people. cheryl: thank you, charlie. here we go. we're about 15 minutes away. we're counting down to the fed decision coming up at 2:00 p.m. eastern time. adam: first perspective from the trading floors. we're live at the new york stock exchange and cme as investors brace for fed chair janet yellen's message. ♪ so our business can be on at&t's network for $175 a month? yup. all 5 of you for $175. our clients need a lot of attention. there's unlimited talk and text.

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cheryl: here it comes. we are about nine minutes away or so from the federal reserve decision on interest rates. everything else. let's check in with our guys. they're in the thick of it. adam: jonathan corpina on the floor of new york stock exchange and fox business contributor phil flynn of price futures grip and trading pits of the cme. dow crossed unchanged line 35 time times, s&p 500, 32 times. they can't make up their mind. like a teenager deciding what to wear to the prom. >> exactly. this is the same type of market activity we see on the calendar what is happening today. nice run-up in the market yesterday. you do have an excuse to take some profits off the table today. seems like the market doesn't know what to do at this point. we're waiting for more information out of washington. a couple key things we're looking for, talking about tapering whether they ramp that up more. target rate, unemployment number. clearly this first q&a session from miss yellen will be very interesting. cheryl: she will give us her

take on economy and emerging markets. i was looking at gold contract. we're seeing stocks kind of going safe. we're seeing defensive plays in the stock market. a little bit. is that a contract i would think would be reacting the other way. >> i think it would be but we're looking at the, no problem. we're looking at tapering issue right now. you know, people think that tapering is bearish for gold. it really isn't. but that at least is a knee-jerk reaction. that and reduction of risk premium, you look at bond market. we had the risk-on situation with the ukraine. that is backing off a little bit. i think they're getting prepared for what this is going to be. the big thing traders are talking about, whether the fed will raise interest rates. fed fund futures say it is basically, your best chance is in october of 2015 at the september meeting. that is the talk right now. we'll see if it continues at

that level. adam: i want to throw the question back to jonathan. no one expects interest raids to grow until 2015 shouldn't we see less indecision to piling into equities and people piling into equities? >> that is what we're hoping to see and we're hoping for mid 2015. once we get through some of lack of transparency as far as interest rates are concerned around tapering is concerned, major geopolitical issues weighing on the markets, once we get through that we'll see the cash on the sidelines waiting to come back into equities start making that play. i'm expecting middle of second quarter when that starts to happen. cheryl: jonathan, on the blackberry, fifth paragraph or third paragraph you go to first. >> you have to go to the guts of it and go to the bottom of it. we see this same reaction every time. the market pounces higher, comes back down and eventually find its spot.

don't get fooled by initial volatility when the headlines come out. adam: a little time left. what is drives headlines today? is indecision with the fed or something else at play? >> i think they're taking off risk premium with the ukraine. they want to hear how this fed will get out of target of 6.5 unemployment. they're looking for a new buzz phrase out of this statement. that is what they're talking about. how will the fed wording qualitative guidance. that will be the big thing. whatever that is, we'll be probably talking about it the next 12 months. cheryl: also, jonathan, how we'll handle really quick the issue of the weather? >> once again weather played a factor in everything across the board. we talk about it in earnings reports as we will. we'll talk about unemployment numbers. all sectors have been affected. i think the government too will jump on that bandwagon. >> jonathan corpina, phil flynn, thank you very much. stick around guys. cheryl: we'll bring in melissa francis. she will cover the decision live for fox business. i'm curious, you will have the

statement right in front of you at the top of the hour. what is the key thing you will look for in the decision today. >> we all want to look at the language. we're all interested in the tapering. we're interested in projections for the rest of this year. i've got an all-star panel with me here. we're a few minutes away from big fed news. peter barnes is standing by in lockup waiting for breaking headlines. we're hitting from every angle. we have an all-star lineup to help digest it all. we'll hear from media titan steve forbes. fed critic and host of the ron paul channel, dr. ron paul is with us as well. cm e-trader james row medically is here. the one an only stuart varney stuck around to mix it up because, especially when it is fed day, it is always about money. cheryl: let's bring in panel right now. we're awaiting fed decision

melissa: what is the best thing she could do. >> announcing taper is over. wouldn't distort the credit markets and would be a healthy thing once people digested it. melissa: stuart, what do you think of that? >> i'm more middle of the road kind of guy. >> you're middle of road? >> see if i am. i expect janet yellen to announce she is staying on the program. she will reduce the printing of money by $10 billion next month and stay with the taper. i think that is what she will say and i think market will go up when she says it. melissa: who else do we have with us right now? gerald, can you hear us, gerald o'driscoll? i don't think he is with us yet. last time we've seen this, in '70s we saw a lot of inflation. in 2,000 we saw this and we saw a housing bubble. i wonder if we're building a stock market bubble and seeing it with the insane ipo market right now, what do you think?

>> markets always have excesses from time to time. the key thing will we get this economy back on track again. amazing five years into a recovery, more than four years we're still hoping maybe we can get to 3%. that is preposterous. we should hope to do 3 to 4 this week. melissa: what do you think, stuart. >> if would look like stock market bubble if janet yellen suggests that end qe right now. the market would go straight down. >> middle of the road kind of guy. >> okay. melissa: if you think about the market and if they stop right now they would interpret the fed thinking the economy is very strong and we're out of the woods. so they ended qe. maybe you would see the market really rally on that. >> that is entirely possible. i want to see what happens to interest rates six months from now. where are we going to be. melissa: we'll ask gerald o'driscoll to come in, former dallas fed vice president.

what do you think we'll hear today. >> those are two different things. we'll hear what stu told us. she will stay the course. continue tapering. gradualism but i agree, it would be, i think it is time to reconsider what they're doing because i don't think it is beneficial on net. it is one of the reasons we have had a slow recovery. melissa: how do you rethink that, gerri? how do you exit gracefully from here? >> exit gracefully after you painted yourself in a corner. >> right. >> it would be a shock to the market if she suddenly announced she would be reversing course. you have to stay after five years the stimulus has been counterproductive and it discourages savings, misallocates credit. borrowing, buying of treasurys and mortgage securities. reallocate credits from productive activities. >> hang on. we're seconds away from the decision. we'll go to peter barnes. i want to note that the dow right now is up eight points.

we've gone back and forth here into positive negative territory all day. so we'll see how the stock market reacts when they get this decision. we also want to see what the growth prediction is going to be in terms of gdp revenue. let's go to peter barnes. >> the fed continues to taper. the fed continue toss taper, cutting bond purchases another $10 billion a month as expected and the fed has changed its guidance when it may begin to increase short-term interest rates as the economy improves, eliminating its 6 1/2% unemployment rate threshold. let's get right to the economic analysis. quote, information received since the federal open market committee met in january indicates that growth in economic activity slowed during the winter months in part reflecting adverse weather conditions. labor market indicators were mixed but on balance showed further improvement. the unemployment rate however remains elevated of the household spending and business