>> it's a winner this week but gave back a lot of yesterday's gains. [closing bell ringing] david: thank you for hanging in there, nicole. we'll come back now a minute. bells are ringing on wall street as you can see and hear. a lot of confusion about what those jobs numbers meant. that confused everybody. although russell 2000 did i manage to bring out a little bit of a victory here, a slight gain of a quarter of 1%. but all of the other indices are down. as liz pointed out the dow and s&p were down much further earlier. again for a while they were in the green. they crossed that up and down line several times while they try to digest what is happening in the stock market but the bond market, very heavy action in the bond market. we'll talk to somebody at the cme in a moment what that means. "after the bell" starts right now. he. david: we have a jam-packed hour for you on "after the bell," including a roundtable with

members of the job creators alliance, people on the front line, who say the real unemployment rate is actually closer to 10% than 6%. but first, le's head back to liz who is live at the berkshire annual shareholder meeting in omaha. list, you have a lot more coming up. liz: yes we do. warren buffett put a number on it last night for us, david. he is expecting 38,000 people at this meeting. that is the a big number, the biggest in all the business world for any shareholder meeting. we have the man that chronicled it in this behemoth of a book. we have buffett biographer, andy patrick. wait until you see the very first meeting berkshire ever held, in a calf fear yaw and card tables. buffett's long time broker, citibank's john frowned. the major change in warren buffett's investment style that started to show itself this year.

david, a rare interview with buffett's again re insurance. how that profitable business is doing. if you wave this things this, is life and times. andy constantly updates it. david: that is whole style encyclopedias. it is huge. thanks, liz. a lot to talk about the markets. scott black of delphi management. he is here in new york. craig johnson of piper jaffray. mike gerka in the pits of the cme. mike, i want to start with you. we usually start by talking stocks but i want to talk bonds. bonds volume was extraordinary. what is going on there. >> that you highlight that i see a 2.59 print in the 10-year yield. it surprise me volume will continue to pick up as long as we see pressure in yields and rally notice markets for a reason. that is more of a head fake. something that the opposite.

something looking out of park either way. we came in better than expected and for those reasons big recipient was treasury market. that is not going to end. david: mike, keep with you for a second. let me talk about yields. we saw a flattening of the yield curve. we saw yields come down a little bit on 10-year, go up a little bit on the five-year. the closer you get to that flattening the worse for the economy, right? >> absolutely. that is one of the reasons why the real estate market is getting such inquestionstive nature to come into the spring and summer months, will that be a robust market? more importantly will we flat line here? all of sudden we have a real problem with the fed on their hand making a decision between growth inflation. rebuilding of economy or more importantly, the status question, which we saw in this number today. if i boil it down, i think a troubling aspect. it shows up in every other asset other than equities.

for those reasons i keep an eye on the yields in the five more than anything. david: exactly. the five boeing into in a different direction than the 10 year on the yield. scott, seems like there is something getting shaky about not only market. we're wondering whether teetering on the market for a while but economy in general, is there? >> agree with you, obviously it was lame at .1 of 1%. everybody used the weather as an excuse. you have a economy with 2 1/2% real gdp growth. unlike the bottom up estimates most people have 120 at s&p. i started year at 116, up seven 1/2% i will stick with that. i they it is a stock-pickers market. the overall direction of the market is not going to take off in this environment, given a 16.5 multiple on s&p. david: craig, even if you're a good stock-picker it would be tough to deal with s&p going down to 1600 level. you think that is where it is going, right? >> i think we're interesting

spot in the market. i agree with most of the guests here, looking at the bond yields right now, the yield curve is flattening. when you look at earnings estimates they're probably too high. the real question that comes into play is, we really need to see this economy accelerate. we really need to see earnings pick up to justify the advance we've seen in the market over the last 12 to 18 months. i mean 2/3 of last year's advance in the market was due to multiple expansion. 1/3 was due to earnings growth. there were a lost expectations built in you would see the economy accelerate in 2014. you have a polar vortex come into play. now we're at a point in time where we need to see backing and filling occurring. if it doesn't happen you will get a reset. david: you're not blaming slow growth completely on the bad weather, are you craig? >> not at all. i think the economy is coming along nicely. it's improving but i think expectations have just gotten too high and that's typically

what you will see, expectations get ahead of themselves and you get a reset. that i think is what will unfold next several months. wouldn't be unreasonable to the market pull back with huge technical support at 1600, 1650. david: i want to stay with you for a second because we were flashing up your year-end s&p guesstimate at 2100. you not only think it will drop down tremendously, if we went down to 1600, that would wipe out a fuel year of gains for the s&p but then it is going to bounce back. when does the bounceback happen? >> so the reason i think we'll get this bounceback, is really simple. when you pull back, break out of a huge base and pull back and retouch support, that is the safest spot to buy stocks. i think you will see a lot of investors come off the sideline, money will shift out of fixed income back to equities and i think you will see that happen. i think advance will start at end of third quarter, around certainly fourth quarter. it will be very strong.

that is typically what you see during midterm election years. david: scott, i'm going to be totally dizzy by the way if that happens. imagine a drop down to 1600, wiping out a year's gains and popping back to 2100 from where we are. do you see that kind of gyration. >> not at you will. i'm a warren buffett devotee from 1980 on. i think what you have to do is what warren says. long-term the u.s. economy grows. you buy good businesses with high returns on equity and strong balance sheets and buy them at low multiples and try not to play stock market. i'm not smart must have whether the market will cycle down 200 points on s&p and come back but i still think there are reasonable values out there. david: okay, but, mike, here's the problem. this comes out of jobs figures. everybody thought. >> tremendous. unemployment rate dropping down to 6.3. but then you look at the numbers, you realize 800,000 people just dropped out of the employment figures. labor force participation

shrinking back to 1978 levels. and here's the thing that is really bothersome, real median income, real median income, once you factor out the inflation figure, is down 3% in the united states from the end of the recession. so, when the recession end you're supposed to get more money and have more money in your pocket to buy more. we're going exactly in the opposite direction. that has to catch up with earnings eventually, right? >> absolutely. for those reasons, as you said, everyone is looking a at headline number, it is real simple for me. i put a one in front of that number. i think it is more like 16. flat tire before it goes back up. the u.s. will get back to leader. and currency it telephone will stop becoming so weak globally. that will be trigger where we're starting to see reacceleration in the economy. until we see housing and employment do some kind of a two-step together, i will not

get emphatic about the macro picture, more than i do of micro scenario month over month. those gdp numbers were not any good for me at all this week. i think that was the real number for the week. david: good stuff, mike. all of you gentlemen, have a great weekend. scott black, craig johnson, michael gerka. 6.3% unenemployment sound like great news but if you ask the real job creators, you have some say it is far from the truth. closer to 10%. we're talking to three members of the job creators network about the real state of hiring. also while investors are focused on the selloff in social media, maybe missing something very important, a more important story in silicon valley. right now, look why mark zuckerberg won't be remembered years from now. elon musk probably will be the guy dominating the conversation. we're heading back to liz at the berkshire shareholders meeting. liz, what do you have coming up? liz: i can tell you warren never

invested in social media stock. he does have a twitter account. doesn't really tweet. david, coming up two people who know how mr. buffett thinks, how he invests and how he lives his life. our next two guests, one is on the other side of the phone when buffett buys or sells his investments of the other chronicled warren buffett's life for decades. join frowned, buffett's broker and andy kilpatrick, buffett's biographer show us from the berkshire hathaway shareholder festivities from omaha, nebraska. we're your window into the best parts of it. stay tuned. ♪ ♪ [ bell ringing, applause ]

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and it helps keep your mouth healthy, too. remember, while your medication is doing you good, a dry mouth isn't. biotene -- for people who suffer from dry mouth. david: utility sector was a big loser today and for the week. let's head bark to nicole petallides on floor of new york stock exchange. it was a winner for the year still but it had a bad week. >> no doubt. when we talk about utilities, they are, it is an incredible sector. it easily surpasses all the other sectors for the year 2014. more than double, number two which would be energy. as far as performance. however this week the safe haven of utilities were just out of favor. this as the dow jones industrial average broke records and made market's first record for the year 2014. you saw names like duke energy, dominion, pg&e, public services

enterprises, southern company to the downside today. talk about the records as well as some of the names that have been a little volatile lately such as social media got a pop this week. so we really saw a complete reversal. so may have haven investments such as utilities really lagged. back to you. david: nicole, have a wonderful weekend, thank you very much. good to see you. meanwhile some analysts are calling this the funkiest job report on record. i'm quoting one of them in market watch. how do you explain biggest gain in hiring two years while at the same time labor force that shrank by the second largest amount in 32 years? for front line perspectives we welcome three members of the job creators network. gentlemen, great to see you, thank you for creating those jobs. we need them now more than ever. bob, what do you make of this

jobs report? >> well, if you look at it in the bigger picture, it is nice we created some jobs but reality we have fewer jobs than we did in '08. and a young person only has one chance in 10 at age 18 to of finding a job. the issue with that also, if you want to raise minimum wage to $10, you're going to further retard the opportunity of young people to get jobs, which is what creates our future economy. david: john, that is not what the president says. the president said raising minimum wage to $10.10 an hour will actually help job creation. do you agree with the president or with bob? >> well, actually the difference here is that the economic institute, run by big labor, says more jobs are needed. as well as the more conservative manhattan institute says the same thing. so both the liberal as well as conservative disagree with the president at that point. david: but the question is what do you do? i mean, okay, so you may

disagree with the president. manhattan institute and liberal group do but what do you do to create jobs? >> well, we are in contact with more than 4,000 small businesses across america. what i hear from them is they need qualified workers to fill the jobs that they have. right now there's a big gap between qualified workers in the jobs available. so really boils down to education. and there's a cyclical trend affecting employment right now. many workers are just not qualified and have cycled out of this jobs cycle because of that very reason. david: scott, these 800,000, a huge number, 800,000 workers just leaving the job market, they vane disappeared. they're still human beings. they're still walking on this planet. apparently looking for a job while not officially in the job market. have you seen any of these people that have lost their job an can't find another one? >> we've seen some. i mean clearly education and having a trained workforce is an

overarching issue for all business owners, finding the right caliber workers. more importantly the burden on small businesses that need to create these jobs are putting on them more than $11,000 of additional taxes, environmental, osha, and other regulatory agencies that are burdening them, stopping them from hiring. so you have both people looking for jobs and small businesses that simply can't afford to hire them. unless we cut that 11,000 down to about 5,000, it would be very difficult to create jobs that we need. david: bob, these young folks that john was talking about, frankly i've got young folk staying with me. my 21-year-old daughter has come back home. it is hard to make it out there on your own when you're young. what do do you about the young folks? >> you think about this. if a young person goes to work for a small business it is like an extended family. they teach them skills. they teach them discipline. they give them upward mobility and that's the process that

allows these people to grow in the marketplace. now when you put this burden on small business, high taxation, regulation, at every front, these small businesses don't have the capital of larger businesses. it makes it very, very challenging for them to complete this process. so if you took all of the small businesses and took the tax burden away from them, they would have both incentive and money to create jobs and develop our young people. david: john, are new regulations and higher taxes preventing you from hiring people? >> they sure are. we're in the securities industry and, we are late denned with lots of regulations in addition to those from osha, e. oc, and -- eeoc and many small business west work with contend every day with complex legal questions that are being introduced by various regulatory agencies that are simply beyond the scope of most small business people to handle in addition to their core business. david: so it takes time away

from your core business to answer all these new regulatory questions? >> it is hard enough to run anea regulator on behalf of the government. david: let me ask each of you. we've got to wrap it at this, whether you're doing any kind of hiring and if so who you're hiring? presumably some folks out there are watching looking for a job or know somebody that is. scott? >> we're clearly hiring in the science and engineering area. it requires phds, advanced degrees in engineering and electrical. we need a highly skilled, highly motivated workforce but we're hiring. david: wow. press you, if you don't have a phd and willing to learn, maybe even at my own expense is there still a place for me? >> i think so. we're also working closely with both the local community colleges and the two universities in the area to develop programs for both people that are reentering the workforce, leaving our military. we have a lot of folks leaving the military that need to be employed as well as students

graduating. so our human resources team and our executives are reaching out to the community to build that bridge. david: thank god, hire veterans. john, are you hire being and if so who? >> we are hiring those people skilled in math, in technical areas, are food candidates for us. -- good candidates for us. we created six internal training perhaps to better quip them for special areas indeed that we have. david: bob, how about yourself. >> we're hiring engineers and physicists. we're also hiring experienced service technicians and we're developing an apprentice program where younger people can come in and learn on-the-job training. david: well that is an interesting point. on that last point. this has to be the last question, bob. are you getting more recruits? some people are talking about how lazy young people are. i don't buy all that but how about you? are you seeing good, young recruits? >> there are good people in the marketplace. they're not easy to find. so we scour the country trying to find quality of individual that we want. but it is very challenging.

david: heart blood of america is right there, folks. bock, john, scott, you guys arer is risk -- terrific. thanks for coming on. >> thank you, david. you're welcome. david: liz has another great exclusive from omaha, nebraska, with two long time buffett associates and friend. his broker, john freund and andy kilpatrick, wrote the book literally on the millionaire. one of the biggest books ever written. it might be worth asking which tech titan will be remembered most 20 years for job creation. we'll ask rich karlgaard, who is right in the middle of silicon valley. that's coming up. ♪ i ys say be thman with the plan

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david: we have breaking news for you, talking a lot about exposure, u.s. companies exposure in russia and how that might be affected by events in ukraine. we heard about ford, gm. turns out jpmorgan, some other banks have some exposure in russia. jpmorgan reporting $4.7 billion exposure in russia as of march 31st. may have changed a little bit since then. this is according to dow jones by the way. they are concerned, they're closely monitoring events in ukraine about whether that might affect their investments in russia. as you can see the stock is off a a little bit hours because of this dow jones report. we'll closely monitor it and bring more information to you. meanwhile, let's go back to liz. liz: thank you, david. if anybody really knows warren buffett, how he thinks, how he

invest our next two guests would be near at the top of the list. one has been warren broker, day, morning noon, nighttime more than 30 years. one has written numerous books about the "oracle of omaha." with me, john freund, citigroup managing director of institutional equity steals and andy kilpatrick, who wrote, "of permanent value," the story of warren buffett. this is the most recent iteration. how many pound is this. >> that is nine pounds. it's a baby. liz: last time you had two versions of it, a first and second. >> cutting it down, adding to it. that is one volume. liz: thank you for being here. john, you've been coming how many years. >> this is my 26th consecutive year. liz: 26th consecutive year but more than 30 years you're taking warren's calls, buy an sell. we want to ask you the most memorable trade for him. it brings back viewers back into

the fold. >> there have been many of them. when he bit petro china and went to sell it off. it was a fun transaction. he wasn't involved in many oil issues at the time. it was an unusual trend action. it was fun. liz: petro china, a multibillion-dollar investment. >> also freddie mac, when he bought freddie when it was basically a, only s&ls could own it. that was one of the more memorable transactions. liz: andy, you know all about the memorable transactions, you have been biographer of buffett's for so long. what stands out to you in the last year about how things have changed for warren buffett? >> well i think more and more example of buying a whole company with a partner that is different wrinkle. i think he wants to buy whole companies. get control of them. you have no annual report. you have no board. you can cut it down if you want. i think he is looking for

elephants and whole companies more than just an equity investment. liz: when he made that investment in in heinz, more than 20 billion with a private equity partner, why do you suppose he did it that way? >> well, that is interesting. some much his investment objectives have changed. it is harder for warren to buy companies, stock in companies, prefer to buy the whole company. he is becoming financial partner. not only with heinz. years ago he did it with wrigley. before that he did it with cap cities as you recall. not only that, he has been doing asset swaps. back in 0, as you may recall, liz, he swapped his white mountain stock for an insurance company that jack byrne owned. and then more recently he did phillips 66 for a sick sid airy that they put into lubrizol, a chemical company that cleans pipelines. liz: can you believe at his age, he will be 94 this year.

>> 94? 84. liz: 84. charlie is 90. he is going to be 84. >> that is incredible. liz: this active. >> he is a medical miracle. i see him walking around faster than a teenager. he is amazing, he really is. one addition, graham holdings things, talking about swaps. "washington post." that is tax sort of preevent they think, if it gets approved. but that is an interesting angle and great for buffett and great for donald graham. liz: he goes and buys outright oriental trading, john. people wonder why he did something like that, the party tchotkes place. he wants to buy whole companies. >> it was an omaha company. i think it had been shopped by private equity. they coin find a buyer at their price. they think warren stepped in as a buyer, was, once again opportunistically. back in '08, when he came in and bought shares in basically, the

preferreds in goldman and ge, he helped save both those companies. he was opportunistic on those approaches. he has permanent capital which a lot of private equity companies don't. sell a single private equity company eventually it will get spun out in some form. with warren it goes in there and not coming out again. think that is real important to the sellers and it is important to them because they can stay on as owners and they can participate as opposed to being thrown out. liz: one of the things you haven't seen done in the past, andy, more and more, is shuffling of investments. he brought in ted west letter, todd collins, two investment guys. >> right. liz: for example his cable holdings, he swaps out directv, i guess you could say. eliminated that stake in the fourth quarter. then bought shares of liberty global, cutting its stake in liberty media. that is not very buffettesque. holeds for a long time. >> i think that wechsler an

combs do more trading than buffett did overall. they have a little different approach. i think that is fine. i think they're largely long-term holders and would say so. they have done some trading and so has buffett. liz: absolutely. >> you ought to know. >> i would add to that what warren, he is fishing in different pond. he has bigger picture. todd has been a wonderful track record and different position. they can buy smaller stocks with impact. each running $7 billion. that's a lot money. liz: warren told us last night 38,000 people may come to crack the record for the shareholder meeting. andy, you have a picture in your book from his very first shareholder meeting held in a cafeteria at card tables. amazing. >> it is in there. and it's a shot later on. i talk to a guy last night, bill

from san francisco. he said there were 15 people in that room. buffett would be talking. he would go get a coke. at end meeting, i've got one hour left. i would talk to you about stocks. they sat at table, four people. they said he was genius then the way he is now. they got to sit with buffett at this table on folding chairs and talked about stocks for an hour. liz: how far he has come. andy kilpatrick, buffett's biographer, a person of value and john freund of citibank. >> our pleasure. liz: we appreciate it. david, back to you in new york. what a story, right? david: hey, i wish i had a couple of shares at that price. bought in thin. oh, well. when investors talk about tech are they thinking about the wrong kind of tech? we're going to debate whether too many investors are allowing social media hype to cloud the real moneymakers in silicon valley. we'll tell you who they are. there is nothing like landing at your vacation destination and then having your luggage land hundreds of miles

away. a new technology helping travelers never lose sight of their bags. we'll tell what you that is coming up. ♪

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david: soaks media stocks receive a lot of attention from investors but maybe too much attention. some folks in the inner sanctum in silicon valley that focus on

facebooks and twitters misses a much bigger tech picture that could have far more fundamental impact on overall economy and jobs. forbes's rich karlgaard is in the middle of silicon valley. he has been following it for decades. he joins us now. i don't want to age you, rich, you done a lot of work i region. you have watched as others have these bubbly, social media stocks fall from grace over the past three or four months of the are you little bit glad that they have. >> first i like to say you and i are exactly same age. david: the secret is out. >> i like air has gone out of facebook, twitter and social media companies and rolled down value. that hasn't hurt the stock market value because that happened. the free market is free market. there is no better way, but there has been misallocation i believe of talent and capital towards these relatively trivial

kind of companies. what is exciting now though, i think over next 10 years you will see all of these sell con val companies and silicon valley completely transform manufacturing, shipping, transportation. all of these big, big sectors that will create a lot of jobs. david: you're getting me excited here about money creation and job creation. before we leave social media and sort of write it off, don't you see value of all the advertising money, at least the advertising money going from old media, and unfortunately we're part of it right now in this to the new social media? isn't there still room to grow there on their part? >> yeah. well there's room to grow but i think their stocks are not going to grow. here on the west coast we consider the four horsemen of technology, to be apple, amazon, google an facebook. i would own apple and google because they're real and their valuations are pretty modest. amazon, you know is fighting too many wars on too many fronts.

they're fighting walmart in retail. they're fighting apple and samsung for electronic devices. they're fighting fedex and ups on delivery and doing it from a point of no profitability whatsoever. facebook simply has to get to a lot bigger revenue and profit standpoint to grow into its valuation. david: talk about the exciting stuff, the room for growth. the way you were describing it, almost sounds like where we were back in the early '80s, right before the information technology exploded. are we on the edge of another growth spurt like that? >> i really think so. obviously we have to have better, better tax and regulatory policies to facilitate this growth. but you think if there is manufacturing renaissance in the united states, that you can already begin to see. you look at the full effect of robotics and artificial intelligence and maybe even drone delivery, all of a sudden a huge advantage that china had and other low cost nations have had, has gone away. david: well, also what goes

away, unfortunately, are some of the manufacturing jobs, right? >> well, yeah. the manufacturing renaissance is not going to produce the quantity of jobs that it did in the 20th century but there are going to be good jobs and whenever you have wealth creation even for facebooks and twitters, when you have wealth creation you have a lot of peripheral jobs that go along with that wealth creation. i don't want, i don't want to leave viewers thinking that i'm anti-twitter or facebook. think they're just bad invests at this point. david: yeah. but the ticket to entry in terms of jobs, based on some of this growth spurt that you're going to see in the tech sector, not social media, don't those, isn't that ticket to entry so high in terms of a phd, computer literacy and everything, most people won't be able to take advantage of it? >> well you know, it has been, david, but i think in the future we're going to see something quite different. i was at the milken global conference earlier in the week. on my panel was the ceo of

apollo education. they own university of phoenix. they're working toward new model driven by employers. they want to be able to simulate the job and all things go along with the job, intelligence and perseverance, the grit, the grace under pressure. and if you can simulate the job, you get much faster route into hiring. i think it takes away this need for credentialism that is real barrier for poor and lower middle class kids right now. david: rich karlgaard. a man in my age and wish i would have taken his advice in the back in the 1980s and made a lot more money than i did. catch rich and myself on "forbes on fox," on our sister channel, 11:00 a.m. eastern time. "forbes on fox." rich is one of the stars. well, president obama and german chancellor angela merkel stand united on ukraine at least for the day. despite all the talk of solidarity will they go their

separate ways in the u.s. and europe impose further sanctions against russia? we'll bo live to the white house to find out why. liz has another exclusive from omaha, nebraska. liz? liz: well as happy hour descends on omaha. david, we're here in the hilton but we've got our own cocktail napkins. #ask liz. you have to send me one of these if you have a question for warren buffett. maybe we'll pick your question for our monday morning big interview, 9:30 a.m. eastern. coming up, the third largest reinsurance giant on the planet. it is general re and berkshire hathaway. he runs this behemoth. this is rare interview. he doesn't give a lot of them. we have him exclusively coming on the big buffett insurance. live from omaha. ♪ you make a great team.

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(announcer) scottrade knows our and invest their own way. with scottrade's smart text, i can quickly understand my charts, and spend more time trading. their quick trade bar lets my account follow me online so i can react in real-time. plus, my local scottrade office is there to help. because they know i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. i'm with scottrade. (announcer) scottrade. voted "best investment services company." >> just north of the city. liz: welcome back, everybody. last year berkshire hathaway reported a total operating income of $15.1 billion, and 5.7 billion of that came from berkshire hathaway's insurance operations. it is massive. well joining me right now is the ceo of one of berkshire's top insurance companies. tad montross of general re.

we're really interested in your entire perspective about the insurance world because it's a huge portion of warren's business that is extremely profitable. i'll start with an easy one. how is business this quarter? >> it's a business that he lots of but the property casualty business is a very intensive business. pension fund and hedge fund have made a huge foray into the business and largely because interest rates are just so low that the yield, everyone is searching for yield. so we've seen a tremendous amount of capital come into the business in the last two years. liz: let's not assume that the world who is watching understands what reinsurance is. >> sure. liz: you insurance the insurance companies? >> exactly. liz: how does an investor find yield in what you're doing? >> we, an investor could invest in an insurance company or a company like berkshire that has extensive insurance holdings, or more recently, the capital markets have been creating

insurance-linked securities often called cap bond and there one can actually buy a bond and we'll get a return associated with what risk is deemed to be for hurricane or earthquake with a specific peril that bond is covering. >> can you just jet net lickly know what is going to happen when you're taking a risk on an insurance company against catastrophe like hurricanes and earthquakes? i would think your business would keep you up at night? >> well it does sometimes. the fascinating thing about insurance is when you price an insurance policy, you don't know what the ultimate costs of that policy will be. liz: exactly. >> so it is based on a number of different assumptions. and really the key to making money in insurance is trying to price with a margin of safety. very similar to the way -- >> work on fear in a way. companies fear that they will get slammed by floods or earthquakes or god forbid sue newspaper miss and they pay you

to insure -- tsunamis. and then if nothing happens you take all the money. it is great. >> well it tend to sort of level out over time. liz: i was going to say, we're coming up on the hurricane season. how does it look? >> we're coming up. it is supposed to be lighter than normal hurricane season. there are 12 named storms forecast in the atlantic this year t has been a very benign hurricane period for five or six years. liz: rates will eventually rise. the fed is eventually going to exit. >> can i quote you on that? liz: you don't believe it. >> it has been a long time. liz: what do you think happens and when? >> i'm not an economist. i did study economics at harvard but you know, i think that it is inevitable over the next two two three years we'll see gradual increase in interest rates. although the 10-year treasury was down to 2.6 i believe today. so it has been, about five years now with really record low

interest rates. which is one of the reasons that we are seeing a lot of interest in the insurance and reinsurance space. liz: tad, wonderful to have you. we'll hope for no hurricane disasters for more reasons than one. >> please play with us of the that would be great. liz: sure. tad montross, the ceo of general re. wonderful to have you. would you join us again. >> i a absolutely will. liz: we love the story of the company and you. tad montross. listen all weekend long we'll give live updates from the berkshire hathaway annual shareholder meeting. warren pay as lot of attention to the insurance unit of berkshire hathaway. we'll be live tweeting all that and more. #askliz. i might choose your question to ask warren buffett on monday. the first hours that the market open fox business has warren buffett live with his vice-chair charlie monger and one of his directors. of course the microsoft founder bill gates. all together live. it is a tradition fox business

started. all the copycatters tried to do it the same but it is very special here. it is monday at 9:30. david, over to you. david: liz, don't you have to pay like $600,000 per question if you want to, for those auctions to ask warren a question? we're giving people offer to do it for free, right? liz: right, absolutely. you don't have to pay anything. come to ask liz, hashtag. david: thank you very much, liz, appreciate it. president obama and german chancellor merkel showing united front at the moment on ukraine promisings tougher sanctions if the crisis increases. what will they talk about after this union? we're also at the white house. would wouldn't you want to know if your luggage made it on the same plight youd did? there is new technology that will help you do that on any airline. we kid you not. details coming up. ♪

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david: president obama meeting with german chance lower angela merkel in washington today and at the top of their agenda was ukraine, the possibility of more sanctions against russia. the meeting coming as violence between pro-russia activists has escalated with a rising number

of deaths. rich edson live at the white house. i heard about the helicopter crashes but all kind of things are breaking out in ukraine. >> absolutely. the president mentioned that and sent a warning along with chancellor angela merkel the they had a joint press conference at the white house where they are preparing the next round of sanctions. they're looking to the may 25th date. that is when the ukrainians are expected to have elections. elections they don't want russians fearing with. they are preparing perhaps sectorwide sanctions. president obama mentioned sectorwide sanctions for the russian economy show he says when you talk about sanctioning the energy sector in russia it's difficult. take a listen. >> the idea that you're going to turn off the tap on all russian oil or natural gas exports, i think is unrealistic. but there are a range of, you know, approaches that can be

taken not only in the energy sector but in the arms sector, the finance sector, in terms of lines of credit for trade, all that have a significant impact on russia. >> of course the difficulties in presenting a united front when it comes to sanctions is just the difference in levels of trade. the president noting that several european countries get 100% of their natural gas from russia. david, back to you. david: rich edson, thank you very much. it is time to go-off the desk. air france and klm, have developed a solution to the lost baggage nightmare, believe it or not. e-track is electronic luggage tag that lets you track your bag's location from your smartphone. can you believe it? the tag eliminates the need to

ever stand in line to check your bag again. can you imagine? it allows you to leave the suitcase at the bag drop and head straight to security. it will be available on air france and klm at the end of the year. don't forget buffett on monday with liz. [ laughter ] smoke? nah, i'm good.

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>> i'm tracy byrnes in for gerri willis. headline today, job growth jumps as unemployment rate plunges to 6.3%. there is way more important number to look at here. it is 806,000. that is a staggering number of people who dropped out of the labor force entirely. the new job engine, believe it or not is part-time work. joining to us talk about all this much more, john lonski, chief economist at moody's, david nelson, small business expert, susan salovich. jonas max ferries, my friend and founder of maxfund.com. was anyone jumping up and down