erdogan. president. thank you very much for watching tonight. "stossel" is here tomorrow night. friday governmental breakdown, hope you watch it. for matt welch and kmele foster. i'm kennedy thanking you for watching "the independents."rni. handing you off to the man himself, lou dobbs. lou: good evening, everybody, breaking news here tonight. u.s. ebola patient zero thomas edward duncan succumbed to the deadly virus, he passed away eight days after his diagnosis, and we have reports tonight there is a second possible ebola case in the dallas area, and the patient is a dallas county sheriffs deputy who was in contact with duncan's family, who was inside the apartment where duncan first showed symptoms of the ebola sickness. >> this patient had reported that they initially had been in the apartment, and the initial

ebola patient in dallas and had some contact with family members. lou: the first co-texas fire chief made the confirmation minutes after centers for disease control tom frieden claimed he had no information whatsoever about a second possible victim. and frieden telling america how little control he believes the centers for disease control has in the prevention effort against ebola. dr. frieden said quote -- only frieden has ever raised the issue of zero risk or perfection, if you will. the cdc director's comments come after his explanation of a new screening procedure being enacted in just five u.s. airports. screening that dr. frieden says will only apply to about 150 passengers a day. we take you thrive dallas, texas for a full report in just

moments. also tonight secretary of state john kerry and pentagon spokesperson rear admiral john kirby suggested the kurdish town of kobani is not a priority for this administration. the syrian border town of nearly 200,000 appears likely to fall to the islamic state at any moment after what has been a fierce three week fire fight. admiral kirby all but today conceded defeat. >> airstrikes alone are not going to do this, not going to fix this, not going to save the town of kobani. >> is it time to ask for permission to use ground forces there? >> no. >> also would the pentagon consider the fall of kobani a strategic loss? >> i don't know that we're going to characterize the fall of kobani one way or the other. lou: we'll take up the ambivalence, ambiguities and vaguearies of the islamic campaign tonight. also good news for

investors who lost a lot of money yesterday. they made it back. wall street shrugging off a nearly 300-point loss yesterday with a nearly 300-point win today. a paper gain of $375 billion for investors, the best trading day of this year. we begin tonight with the threat of the deadly ebola virus spreading in dallas, a second suspected case linked to the first. fox news correspondent casey stegall live in dallas with our report. >> reporter: it is important to point out this has not been officially confirmed as ebola. that is certainly the headline here. the new patient that popped up this afternoon is being monitored and tested right now as we speak at texas health presbyterian hospital here in dallas. ironically, the same hospital where thomas duncan, the liberian national who brought

ebola to the united states passed away earlier this morning. the patient was brought to this location. we understand a sheriffs deputy who had gone inside duncan's apartment at one point, referring to this particular case the cdc chief says there are more questions than answers at this hour. this comes after thomas duncan, the liberian national lost his battle with the ilness this morning. four members of family in north texas not only mourning but wondering if they face the same fate as they sit in quarantine until october 19, the end of ebola's maximum 21 day incubation period. they had been in extremely close contact with duncan. at this apartment complex as the virus began ravaging his body. his longtime girlfriend said this today, quote, i hope that you will keep my family in your prayers. this has dramatically changed our lives and we will be grieving for a long time.

may eric rest in peace. we got more information about the beefed-up security screening to a handful of airports. >> these five airports, represent but 94, 95% of the 150 travelers per day who arrive from these three countries. the department of homeland security, cbp, will be implementing a detailed questionnaire as well as temperature taking and providing information to each traveler. >> reporter: and finally this evening, that freelance nbc photographer continues to treated for ebola in nebraska tonight after he contracted the deadly virus working inside of liberia. officials say he is receiving an experimental drug and also blood transfusions from an

american doctor who was successfully treated for ebola not too long ago. lou? lou: casey, thank you very much, casey stegall reporting from dallas. more developments concerning the ebola outbreak to bring you the. the world health organization announced the virus has now killed nearly 3900 people. nearly half of the more than 8,000 infected across five west african countries, spain and the united states now. spanish officials say a nurse with ebola likely was infected when she touched her face with gloves after tending to a spanish priest who had been stricken with ebola. the situation in west africa is not look good. burial teams in sierra leone did return to work today, a day after they organized air strike over pay and they abandoned dead bodies of ebola victims in the capital city.

but health workers in liberia are threatening to strike as well if their demands for more money and safety equipment aren't met by the end of this week. a new report estimates the economic impact of ebola in west africa could top 32 billion dollars by the end of nextyear. and the impact is sure to extend beyond west africa, potentially spiraling into another immigration crisis into the united states. that according to the marine corps general who leads america's southern command. >> if ebola breaks out in haiti or in central america, i think it is literally katie bar the door in terms of the mass migration of central americans into the united states. lou: the general went onto warn about human trafficking networks which could unwittingly smuggle people carrying ebola. president obama today getting a briefing from his national security team and the military leaders at the

pentagon on the ebola situation and his administration's efforts in airstrike campaign against the islamic state in iraq and syria. this is just the third time in mr. obama's presidency he's gone to the pentagon for briefings. fox news correspondent ed henrys hat report. >> reporter: president obama went behind closed doors and suggested he's staying the course against isis. >> remains a difficult mission, as i've indicated from the start. this is not something that's going to be solved overnight. >> reporter: the chairman of the house armed services committee insisted otherwise. republican buck mckion declaring isis is not degraded by airstrikes and american troops are necessary because the president, quote, needs to walk out of pentagon willing to put new options on the table rather than continuing to rule them out. >> the joint chiefs are going to tell the president, mr. president, the airstrikes

so far have disrupted isis, that's successful. your stated goal sir is to defeat isis. >> reporter: white house spokesman josh earnest repeatedly insisted the strategy is working as he heads whether u.s. can save the key city of kobani along the syrian and turkish border. >> have you seen the u.s. military carry out airstrikes in this region that have degraded the ability of isil to stop this function. is this going to stop isil from overrunning kobani? i don't think anybody knows. >> reporter: they are able to hit isis refineries in syria and taking back the mosul dam. state department spokesman had trouble articulating that during a 48 second answer that included this. >> some of our successes on the ground by the iraqi security

forces. sorry. well, i'll find it. >> reporter: in an interview promoting his new book, former defense secretary leon panetta said it starts at the top. >> i think deep down, you know he knows what needs to be done. what he's got to do is develop the will to fight to get into the ring. >> he better get on it. >> do our enemies throughout the world fear us? >> i think they're getting a mixed message. >> reporter: sparking speculation the president could shake up staff after the midterms with "washington post" columnist mentions big names like chief of staff denis mcdonough and national security adviser susan rice. >> is there a chance, some change, rejiggering needs to be done? >> no, i don't think so. >> reporter: jimmy carter is on the attack saying the president waited too long to deal with isis and more importantly his

mideast policy keeps changing, lou? lou: thank you very much, ed henry from the white house. coming right back with more from ebola, the islamic state and midterm election. stay with us. 26 days until the midterms. the president's underwater approval ratings have republicans rejoicing, is it a little early? republican strategist and republican strategist and architect of two presidential [ hoof beats ]

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. lou: the newest fox poll looks at five key midterm states revealing a dismal perception of president obama's job performance. his approval numbers in alaska, arkansas, colorado, kansas and kentucky all in the 30% range.

his disapproval numbers in each of those hotly contested states, hovering at or above 60%! despite this, republican candidates only leading in those contests state by state between four and seven points. not that far outside the margin of error. here now to analyze the midterms just 26 days away and the likely results, former deputy chief of staff to president george w. bush karl rove, fox news contributor. great to have you with us. one would expect the republicans to be much farther ahead than they are, in some case tied up. >> remember, all three of the races in democratic states covered in the new fox polls are against democratic incumbents. if these were open races, the seats would be settled and settled today. hard to be incumbent and every one of the incumbents saw a tough election year coming and muscled up with money and have

been on the attack since day one. i mean the good news is that our candidates appear in these three races to have basically survived the onslaught and some cases prospered. these three races arkansas, alaska and colorado, if they're added to the other three open democratic seats where everybody shows republicans ahead, would give us the six necessary to win the senate, and that leaves out iowa and louisiana which have been polled by fox news previously, it was the republican candidate was at louisiana and tiedn i iowa. it shows joni ernst starting to pull ahead. lou: she is an attractive candidate by every definition, yet it has been much tighter than most people thought it would be, her contest. >> well, remember, she came, first of all, the democrats settled on one candidate early

on. bruce brailey had 2013 and 2014 to run in the clear. she came through a bitter republican primary and captured in exceptional style. she's a state senator who represents 1/40 of the state. he's one of the state's four congressmen. the fact she has moved ahead of him is a testament to the strength of her candidacy because until this quarter, she has been outspent by the brailey and his democratic allies by considerable margin. lou: karl, i love the way you say brailey and his democratic allies, you make it sound like they're gang members. [ laughter ] . >> you know, some of them are pretty tough hombres. harry reid, his campaign is brutal. when fox poll covers arkansas. the democrats ran an ad saying republican tom cotton didn't

want to prepare america against ebola. this is how tough they've been. lou: tough races in lots of places. you've -- well, american crossroads raised 100 million to throw into the midterms. the republicans right now are getting outspent, do you close the gap here in the final days, 26 days away now from the election. >> yeah, good news is in the final four weeks of the campaign for republicans, the good news is that the spending gap has narrowed dramatically in part because of outside groups and republican candidates have exceptional success as we close the campaign in raising funds. corey gardner in colorado raised 4.3 million dollars. joni ernst raised 4.5 million dollars. tom cotton raised more money for an incumbent in the history of arkansas. the gap is starting to close, the parties and the critical

contests will be a rough parody, there will be a couple of races in north carolina and new hampshire, the republicans are terribly outspent, but the gap is closing in and i suspect it will close in those two states. lou: turn quickly as we wrap up here, south dakota, that senate race has blown up, it looks like, three folks fighting it out for republican, democrat and independent by the name of larry pressler, who famously brought the telecommunications act into being. how do you expect that to unwind with what looks like they've attached scandal to governor rounds. are they going to make it stick? >> i don't think so. look, there's one poll that shows the race close. the other polling shows the race wide open, excuse me with, a big margin, for rounds. but, look, it's a small state.

a super pac run by a harvard professor opposed to big money and politics is going to come into the state and support wyland with a million dollars. that's a lot of money for a small state like south dakota. at the end of the day, rounds wins this not by the margin he leads with in polls well into the double digits. i think he wins it. he was a very popular governor and attacks on ethics i don't think, they're conversation but i don't think they're sticking. lou: real quickly, barbara bush has gone from negative to neutral on jeb bush running for president. you have been consigliory, does he get in or not? >> i don't know if the family members know. i know this about jeb bush, he's definitive, when he says he's going to make a decision at the end of the year, he's going to make a decision at the

end of the year, early next. he has not made up his mind with respect to run. i saw this with his brother, i'm not going to make up my mind as to whether or not to run until after the 1998 gubernatorial election. he was very open about it with voters, and i know from behind the scenes, he did not make up his mind until after the holidays in 1998 and '99 and reluctant to jump into the race until after the legislative session there. was even a discussion that took place in january and february about the necessity of signaling intention in march. when they say i'm going to make up my mind, at this point, that's when they make up their mind. lou: has barbara bush told what you advice she wants you to give jeb? >> no, no. mrs. bush doesn't need people to give advice to her son. she gives the advice pretty directly, in my experience. lou: karl, great to have you with us. >> thank you, lou, appreciate it. lou: karl rove. time for a look at our online

poll results. we asked you whether the president's lack of leadership concerns you most on which of these two issues? ebola or islamic state. be sure to vote in our poll tonight, the question is, is there any issue that would cause to you vote for the democratic candidate in next month's midterm election. cast your vote at loudobbs.com. up next, a kurdish town of 200,000 people in western syria, surrounded by radical islamists who mean to call them all. this is our secretary of state on their fate. >> we have conducted additional strikes in the region. as horrific as it is to watch in real time, what's happening in kobani, it's also important to remember, you have to step back and understand the strategic objective and where we have begun over the course of the last weeks.

lou: i'm sure that was very moving to the 200,000 people entrapped in kobani. is this truly how america now wages war? we take up that ♪ mr. daniels. mr. daniels. look at this. what's this? clicks are off the charts. yeah. yoshi, we're back. yes, sir! ♪ more shipping! more shipping! ♪ [ beeping ] ♪ [ beeping ] ameriprise asked people a simple question: in retirement, will you have enough money to live life on your terms? i sure hope so. with healthcare costs, who knows. umm... everyone has retirement questions.

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. lou: coming up here tonight, reports of a major white house staff shake-up. who the likely candidates are, and why mr. obama will show them the door? and tonight my commentary on why the president suddenly finds himself lonely with failed policies in the white house? our next guest is not surprised this is the president's third visit to the pentagon during his presidency. mr. obama also rarely attends intelligence briefings. joining us tonight retired major general robert scales, a u.s. commandant. general, good to have you. >> thank you, lou. lou: i was shocked to hear this was his third meeting to the pentagon and persuade the generals of the airstrike campaign strategy and the generals to persuade him of doing far more. what do you think the outcome

was? >> well, i think the outcome was business as usual. it was clear when the president went to the pentagon that his strategy wasn't going change, and to their credit, as i've been told today, the joint chiefs basically laid out the facts of what's happened over the last 50 days. they show the him the numbers, the bomb damage assessment and say mr. president, your campaign degraded the isis, but you told us mr. president, your objective is to destroy them. if you follow the current course, you may degrade them but it's very unlikely over time that you will destroy us. lou: the idea that our military is captivated by a long war as is apparently this president or conflict, whatever he might style it as. we've gone from the petraeus long war now to the latest iteration of the military commanders, the flying staff

ranks in the pentagon to now decades. generational wars. >> right. lou: general, i've got to ask you, americans have little stomach for generals who can't win and presidents who entangle us abroad in adventures that we don't conclude or achieve victory. >> lou, there's an old soldier saying, go big or go home. lou: amen, general, amen! >> and that's basically what the joint chiefs are trying to tell the president. this is a business channel, let me give you 20 second of numbers. we defeated the taliban over 70 days in 2001, 2002, a force larger than isis with 450 special forces on the ground, dropping over 17,000 bombs. so far over 50 days of this campaign, they've flown 382 missions over 50 days. and no special forces on the ground. that just gives you a metric that defines what we're about.

at that rate, it will be a 30-year war and two former secretaries of defense, two ambassadors and former president have told the commander in chief that's what's going to happen, lou. lou: why then are we not hearing from our leaders either in the military or whether it be secretary of state clinton, whether it be secretary of defense gates, secretary of defense panetta, why are not the leaders and our national security team and ranks saying if they disagree with this direction, and the impact and the lack of potential success following that strategy why, aren't some of them standing up and saying, thank you, sir, i can't serve any longer. i am done here, and i think you're utterly mistaken, you can be as gentlemanly as you like in that. >> lou, i've been in this business a long time, and i have never seen a coalition of

opposition like this in my entire career. when you have ambassadors and think tank gurus and generals and former defense secretaries and former presidents. almost uniformly counseling the president that current course is the wrong one, i don't know how much more advice you can give to the commander in chief. but at the end of the days, it's the guy that sits in the white house at a quiet moment that turns to inner circle and says continue the campaign, business as usual. you say generals can quit, generals have done that in the past. downing if the entire joint chiefs quit tomorrow that would change the president's course? lou: yes, sir, i do. i think it would change the nation's course. i think it would change history. and i think it's about time that some of the people writing a lot of books did something rather than wrote something. general, you're one of the folks who's done a lot and we appreciate it. thanks for being with us. >> thank you, lou. lou: general robert scales. the fbi is now asking for your help in identifying an

english speaking islamic state terrorist who is seen on video helping to execute syrian soldiers. fbi made much of highly vaunted biometrics technology and facial recognition technology and the fbi now can only tell us that the executioner is believed to be an american likely from the midwest and their hopes for the application of all that technology resulting in identification has been thwarted. u.s. intelligence analysts tell foxnews.com they are able to identify another islamic state terrorist known as jihadi john within software within days. his identity has yet to be discovered either. it could be several more weeks before a mexican court decides the fate of jailed marine sergeant andrew tahmooressi. tahmooressi's attorney says the prosecution is expected to rest

its case in the coming days. the judge doesn't have to render a verdict, of course, not for another five weeks. tahmooressi has been imprisoned for 192 days now without a single mention from this president and without this administration intervening on behalf of a former servicemember who is a decorated marine. we're coming right back. the country's ready for a change in the white house, and so is president obama. will there be a shake-up? every job in the white house could be on the line exceeeee ♪ [ female announcer ] we love our smartphones. and now telcos using hp big data solutions

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. lou: joining us now the chairman of the american conservative union, former white house political director under president george w. bush matt schraub and fox news contributor, michael goodwin of

the "new york post." tonight get your reaction to the brand new ad from americans for prosperity. >> i don't know where things went offtrack. i thought i was doing everything right, and then i am -- i guess i lost hope. i had to move back in with my parents after everything they've done for me. >> that's great work, does anyone else want to share? >> hi, my name is dan, and i'm unemployed. >> hi, dan. >> big government is killing opportunity for young americans. don't they deserve the dream? lou: dreamers. what do you think, michael? >> i was -- that's the first time i've seen the whole thing, and i was thrown by the tone. it does have the double a, triple a feeling, life has gone

off track. it could be in certain states where i think this is going to run, could this be very effective. it will get your attention. lou: it's for five states where vulnerable democrats are there. matt, your reaction, i have never seen this. i want to give the americans for prosperity. i got to compliment them. they have taken the battle for mine space directly at the point which democrats, at least in media, live. >> that's right, how is this obama economy working for the poor where we see all the statistics on poverty going through the roof, and how is this obama economy working for the people that really did think he represented hope and change, i disagree with you a little, lou, like dr dr. kevorkian, it connects with the people that think this county is on the wrong track. i hope it's got a sequel that explains what the republican candidates will do to fix the problem.

lou: less dr. kevorkian, if i may say than halloween or -- what's the name of the -- jack the ripper. what's being conducted here is a battle against the unemployed against this country. the middle class, and i think it nails it, because it's about time people understand. this is not some sort of serendipity. this is cause and effect. there is a solution mapped by the previous administration that are devastated. >> lou, i think the american people understand that the obama economy is wrecking this country, and republicans need to --. >> i wish you hadn't said that, now i'm starting to think your kevorkian as well. that's what republicans were saying in 2012, matt. they have a record only a fool -- >> let me finish, i think the news for republicans this november is not just about the

fact it's obama people are worried about. they are equally worried with anybody in office and what the solutions are. if there's not clear republican and conservative solution to the problems, they're not going to vote for them either. >> i think mr. obama made it rather tough, matt, he said his policies are on the ballot in every state. >> that's one of the issues that i think linking of course every candidate with president obama, you've seen it in the ads and the hard fought senate races where all you have to say is harry reid and barack obama, that's the answer to every question in the debates. that's the tag line in every ad. and i think fundamentally it will work in those states because the president's personal popularity is so low, and his job approval is so low that the democrats have to fight against their own president. lou: those numbers have been upside down, matt, as you know for the past year for the president. we're looking at tight races. i went through some of them

with karl rove earlier tonight. and you would expect, i think, reasonably, that republicans would have a greater lead. we're talking about 60% disapproval in five states. 30%, only 30% approval ratings for the president, what do you think is going to happen? >> look, i agree with both of you that the president's in the tank with his numbers. that's going to accrue to the benefit of the republican candidates. no question that attacking obama gets them very far. that i have to make sure they don't assume the american people are in love with them. they have to have clear solution. there's a great chance that the republicans will pick -- you. >> mean like the national party? >> that's a fair question, lou, that a fair question. we have to have specific policies to answer the angst that the american people have. i'm not here to be a cheerleader for the party. we're going to take back the senate. republicans have to have a clear agenda.

if they get the gavels and have a chance to lead in the senate and the house, they have to show the american people what they've got. lou: super. last word? >> today we had jimmy carter chiming in on barack obama's foreign policy. >> i think the president didn't mind that a bit. >> i have to say, it felt like if this were the nfl, that would have blown the whistle. this is unnecessary roughness, everybody now is beating up on the president. this is a sign it's almost impossible for him to do anything in the next 26 days that would make a difference in his party's favor. lou: you are a well of compassion and empathy and i'm so impressed. thank you so much, michael. michael and matt. thanks for being with us. up next, the department of homeland security intends on sending out lone wolf warnings to law enforcement agencies. maybe they should be looking a

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. lou: coming up tonight, a historic drought has left 100% of the state of california in drought. we'll be taking that up and the likely impact. a few comments now, the department of homeland security has been warning us all about the dangers of a lone wolf. well, one of those lone wolves has revealed himself has few friends, fewer allies and lives at 1600 pennsylvania avenue. i said to president obama became a lame duck in the spring of last year. that was a right animal then, it's changing a bit. and i said the president was in more trouble in january. when the secretary of defense robert gates said in his memoir that president obama, quote, doesn't believe in his own strategy and doesn't consider the war to be his, for him, it's all about getting out. then, in august. after her new memoir was

published, the former secretary of state hillary clinton blasted president obama, she said quote great nations need organizing principles and don't do stupid stuff is not an organizing principle. now two months later, bob gates successor has stronger criticism of the president. >> the division going on in the congress, and then if the president doesn't engage with them, then you have a situation where everybody gives up, and they've basically given up on things. given up on a budget deal, immigration reform. they've given up on issues like infrastructure funding otrade, on energy. that is what concerns me because i think this country cannot stand another 2 1/2 years of stalemate. lou: you know, the three former members of president obama's cabinet have done a great public service with their critiques. but they are also selling books. and to my knowledge not one of them offered their resignation over the issues that they

raised. whether it would have mattered, i certainly don't know, but i would feel a lot better if at least one of them had done so because each makes it clear under this president, we for a lot of trouble. now the quotation of the evening, this one from the 26th president of the united states theodore roosevelt. he said -- up next, more americans live in california than in any other state, despite the deepest statewide drought in the country's history. what happens to those tens of millions of californians when the last drop yo, bro, you on woo-woo? are you kidding me? everybody's on woo-woo! [elevator bell rings] woo-woo? lock and load, people! we're going all in on woo-woo! mark! comp us up a profile page!

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. lou: california's going through the driest year on record since 1977 with its historic drought entering the fourth year. more than 80% of the state of california is in extreme drought. nearly 60% experiencing the worst possible drought conditions. 100% of the state in drought. joining us now paul wanger, and danielle can, a researcher meteorologist with the scripps institution of oceanography and u.s. geological researcher. paul winger, the politics of this thing are one thing, but for the state to limit the extraction of ground water strikes many as just befuddling. what will be the impact on agriculture and what is agriculture's future if this

draught continues? >> a huge impact of agriculture, lou, being if california with the pacific ocean on our west, the sierra nevadas on our east. it's mismanagement. it's deferring, i think, to the environment sometimes and not managing current infrastructure. 76, 77 was the last severe drought. we haven't changed water from from in california. we have 38 million residents, and that's making the impact greater. lou: doctor, is there any relief in sight, el nino? is there any way in which california can react responsibly, environmentally and effectively, to the drought? >> there is an el nino developing. it looks like a mild one. this year. and i guess the good thing is it's not cool in the tropical pacific which in much part of the state would be probably

turn out to be dry. el ninos, however, have had a very large range of outcomes from pretty dry to extremely wet. so we'll hope that this one pushes us towards the wetter side, but it's unlikely that we'll reverse the current situation. lou: we're talking about the -- state of california vitally important in the nation's food production, but it's the entire southwest that is being hit by this drought. the water table, the last number that we saw, the west has lost 63 trillion gallons, 63 trillion gallons since early last year! i mean that's staggering! >> yeah, this is an enormous amount, and as you said, the drought is a very broad

footprint which reflects the lack of storminess we've had not only over this last year but building up over a series of years. the dryness in the west goes back to the late 90s more or less, and has persisted. lou: you know, and paul, when you're talking about this kind of impact on agriculture, a lot of people saying, and i know it's part of the political solution, we're going to see you guys raise more bond money. we're going to see other steps taken. but in the face, if this turns out to be the 500-year drought it was proclaimed to be back in the 90s as dr. cane mentioned, we're talking about a national scale emergency here, not simply california, not simply the west, but for the nation, and i don't see the national government, the federal government responding in any meaningful way, do you? >> you are absolutely right. when we talk about the pulse

rains and because of endangered species regulations we were not able to capture the water into reservoirs. lou: that's insane. >> when you talk about california, not only the united states, we're the sixth largest food producer in the world. what happens if california agriculture will have a footprint not only in california and the united states, but across our entire world. lou: and doctor, at this point, what is your outlook. many people may not realize, the earth has actually risen, it is so dry in the west, that is being measured by noaa, and their satellites. this is a big, big deal, and gets so little coverage in the national media. >> that's right. lack of water weighing down the earth's crust, which is elastic is actually resulted in this

uplift that you mentioned, lou. as far as california, i guess the good thing is that we are the most volatile part of the united states, when you consider the precipitation climatology. so we have lots of downs but also have ups, and -- lou: well, you guys eventually will hope for an up that will take us out of this persistent dryness that we've experienced. lou: that's a hope. the forecast? >> the forecast is uncertain right now because of the relatively modest signal in the tropical pacific, but again, there's a range of outcomes, over half of which are on at least the normal to wetter side. lou: dr. kayan, thank you very

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neil: all right. tonight, on cavuto the first ebola patient dies in america. is this the surprising so-called black swan development that could rock tober event. is the irs still at it. i want you to the meet the anti-filmmaker. is he on to something? subway in the hot seat for telling women to try their stuff and you'll look better hot. i think that sizzling ad alone is going to land it into some deep do do. in the meantime. welcome everybody i'm neil cavuto and our top story, you know things are bad