tv Bulls and Bears FOX Business October 19, 2014 2:00am-2:31am EDT
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good night. (captioned by clo services, inc.) us tomorrow. university students bullied on campus when passing out the constitution. join us! ebola worries rattling both main street and wall street. as more scares are popping up in more places, from planes to cruise ships to buses and stores. the worrisome headlines making stocks swing all over the place. so just how bad could it get for your money and our economy? hi, everyone. i'm brenda butner. this is "bulls and bears." and here we've got them. the bulls and bears this week, gary v. smith, john mayfield, along with david mercer. welcome to everybody. how much worse is this going to get? >> i think it's definitely going to get worse. look at all the crazy swings we had last week. i'm not meaning to make light of
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ebola at all. anytime you're seeing somebody get sick, they're quarantining planes, buses, schools, this is going to continue. and i think this adds to the problems the market is having and the reason is because ebola has such a high mortality rate, fatality rate so, it's causing this fear of this wide pandemic. but remember the cdc has been wrong about avian flu, the swine flu, they've been wrong about malaria coming to north america. they've been wrong about sars. hopefully they're wrong about this also. but you're going to see the market have wider gyrations while the market is dealing with germany slowing down the eu and the fed keeping interest rates low. >> gary bee. viewers sitting at home, a lot of us have 401(k)s, a lot of that is in the s&p 500. and just to keep in perspective, the s&p is up 2% so far this year even though it's been all over the place this last week. is this a time to get in, to buy? what should we be doing? >> yeah. i actually think it is a time to buy. i agree with a lot of what john said. a lot of the volatility is
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caused by fear of the unknown. i think it's kind of katie, bar the door. if we discover a person that isn't associated with health care has ebola, then it's oh, my gosh, then that's really serious. now everyone has been in the hospital or came from west africa, and so far it's fairly contained. and i think it provides these panic sell-offs, if you will. and i think they're attributed to other reasons, too. but the panic sell-offs that we've had i think are buying opportunities. as the s&p approached 1800 the other day, two days ago i think it was, i was buying. i don't say everyone should go all in. i think you start to do selective buying on these big dips. >> but jonas, panic itself, even if there are no more outbreaks, panic itself can really lead to some hiccups in the economy, in the market.
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>> panic is the only hiccup in the market. panics hundreds of years ago all the time in the economy and the market. we saw stocks moving around like carnival cruise lines with just phantom menaces of this ebola outbreak that weren't even real and the stocks would recover later in the day. the point is if people behave crazy there's no limit to how far it could go. we could have thousands of ebola outbreaks and it would have no more effect on the economy than the flu if no one cared. but it will if they panic. we could see people not travel, get nutty, hoard up in their house. that could drive the economy into a recession. so i fear the panic and how people behave, not the actual chance of getting a flu. that's a very viable thing. we don't know how much people will panic. >> david, you say that fear mongering is to blame. the stocks are actually down for the month. but you point your finger at some for this. >> well, i point my finger as i think some exaggeration on the part of the media. the gop has been using it as a
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political issue and fear mongering the issue sxip think the real -- the thing that scares me the most is the fact that we would have been better prepared for this had we not endured the cuts to the center on disease control or on national institute of health, which would have been better prepared for this. that said, let's put it in perspective. you have more people dying a year, 50,000 people die of the flu and pneumonia and of that 4,000 die strictly from the flu. so go get your flu shots, take a deep breath. let's not worry so much about ebola, but let's get our arms around how we can reduce and prevent any others from contracting ebola is what we need to do. >> you do make a good point. we should stay calm. but tracy, the studies on fruit fly sex or whatever it was, that cdc and nih do. that's money well spent? >> monkeys getting drunk was one of the nih's studies as well.
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so the cuts have nothing to do with why we are unprepared for this. to john's point, there's so much volatility in this market, really anything could make it gyrate for the rest of the year. but the trend is up for november and december. history has shown november-december to be really good months in the market and i think this was a little bit of the correction everybody was waiting for and the ebola scared just added to it and moved it along and set it along. gary said people should have been buying. people should have made a shopping list for this correction and gone in and bought a stock or two you wanted to buy and now you can at a cheaper price but i don't think we should panic and presume in this market is falling off a cliff. >> john, a lot of sectors saw a lot of action. if you're selling hand sanitizers, you had quite a bum. and airlines have some trouble. >> airlines have some trouble, and only a democratic strategist could find a way to blame ebola on the other party. >> i wasn't blaming ebola. >> that is -- that's preposterous. but if you're a republican
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strategist you blame it on the democrats. that's what you do for a lifgs. it makes sense for these guys. but the problem you have is like tracy had said the market is gyrating mainly because of factors that have more to do than ebola. oil is down. and because of that you're seeing a lot of hedge funds come out of oil stock, coming out of retail stocks as well. that should help retail going into the christmas season. we have a lot of positive things going for us. the network negative is the global slowdown. oil prices are coming down. that has more effect than ebola. ebola added on top of that can help precipitate the swings and make it more volatile. >> we see a lot of gyrations in the short term but if you look long term, if you've got? time, 10, 15 years before your retirement, should you be worried about this volatility? >> no. i don't think so. this volatility, you remember, brenda, until we hit about 2012, 2013, we always had stretches
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like this. it's only been recently that the volatility has been fairly low. it wasn't until this past week, as a matter of fact, that the s&p fell below its 200-day moving average. i mean, it was above it for like a year and a half, two years. it was just an untenable stretch. this volatility we're experiencing really is more the norm. and you're exactly right. if you have a long-term horizon, days like we had on wednesday and thursday when the market swoops down, i think it is time, as tracy so aptly points out, to have your shopping list and if you want to buy $10,000 worth of pick it, netflix, maybe you say, well, i'm going to buy $2,000 worth, and you sfastart to edge into these things. my gosh, 10, 15 years from now you're going to be a lot wealthier. >> david? >> i would just say to point out what gary had said earler and tracy before that, and that is october is traditionally a month where you see this kind of
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volatility for correction or other reasons. i might also add that you have a slowdown in the european economy. that's contributing to it. so it's something to be expected. and let's not stretch it to go to ebola or find other reasons to explain away october which traditionally is a month where you see these kind of ups and downs. >> jonas, but you still fear fear itself. >> yeah. i mean, i would like to use panic if it was airrational to buy if we had a pullback. the 7% dop is not historically a big drop. you could see so%, 20%, 30%. you've got to be prepared for that. i will say if ebola spread people are going to irrationally panic and it will hit the market in a way that doesn't make any sense and it will probably be a buying opportunity. i'd like to think people aren't going to haul off and cause a recession because people realize they're not going to get it even if some people in america have it. >> okay. last word. thanks, guys. it's not just flights. how about banning visas?
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but critics questioning president obama's choice since he has zero medical experience. and tracy, you say this is more proof that the government needs to be run like a private company? >> you know, when they created the job description for the ebola czar, my guess is the first line said doctor. because this is a medical issue. and yet no one even -- did they not think of that or did we just put him in there because he was joe biden's chief of staff and that's what we do, we give our friends jobs? look, this man has to understand preventive care, the drugs, all this kind of stuff that requires medical background. i'm sure he's going to surround himself with smart people. but you would want the guy at the top, guy or girl at the top, to have that in the back of their head the whole time. >> gary b., in the private sector one of the biggest turnarounds, you saw it at ibm, right? >> i did. and my wife worked right next to lou gershner when he came over from rjr nabisco.
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mr. gershner knew something about commuters because he was an ibm client before that. but he didn't really know about the ftechnology industry. and he did a fantastic job of turning around ibm. i understand what tracy's saying and i agree with certain points but the private sector doesn't always operate like that. another great example is meg whitman. meg whitman before she took over e bay worked at disney and stride-rit sxechlt hasbro and is now at hp. she didn't know anything about i.t. and i think she's doing a good job. i think it's really -- this job is more of a leadership job than a medical job. >> david, he still doesn't have ceo background. i mean, he has a management background and he was responsible for coordinating the first -- in the first year that economic stimulus. it doesn't have much success. >> well, he's got a lot of management experience. you know, this is a gentleman that has served two vice presidents. to tracy's point. it's not just one but two. has served a majority leader. has served as a clerk for the
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supreme court justice. has been the chief of staff to the attorney general. so he's covered a wide range of issues. in addition, he's also worked in the private sector at the law firm of williams & connelly, at aol and others. so what we need here, we have enough doctors at cdc and other expertise at some of the agencies that are at the forefront of combating ebola. but we need somebody that's going to keep the trains going on time. coordinate, identify problems that don't get bigger. and to work with congress so that we can all address this issue in a coherent manner rather than it just overwhelming us. and i think he's been in that position to do this. >> and jonas, you actually point out that a lot of hospital administrators have no medical background. >> yeah. the guy running hospital corp. of america has an accounting degree. that's who runs businesses in america. you think the drug companies are run by doctors? that's totally absurd. they work there in some capacity but the real money is in
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management. people with mbas or accounting degrees or law degrees. here's the real problem with this hire. it's not that. it's that this job pays in a year what hospital executives running top chains make in a week. so it's going to be really difficult to get those people to leave those cushy jobs with the stock options and take this dead end ebola job when this blows over. who wants to be that czar? the real question is is the job post necessary in why isn't homeland security doing it? they already have this. in their huge $30 billion budget a whole infectious disease bioterrorism department that is supposed to be on top of this in case a terrorism decides to come here with ebola to get it to spread. and they have no plan, obviously. hiring more people isn't going to fix that problem. >> well, john, is this the right man for the job? >> no. i don't know the man personally but i don't want someone that served under a lot of people. i want someone that ran something. and why is the president not showing leadership here? this is political cronyism at its absolute worst. if you're going get somebody, why don't you go out there and
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swall yeh your pride and call bill clinton? why don't you call mitt romney? reach out like abraham lincoln did. he at least saved the salt lake olympics. why don't you call michael bloomberg? there are a lot of people out there who've run very big things successfully. the president could have called. instead he chose somebody he wants to play golf with, one of his political cronies. >> david? >> that is just absolutely true. and i think it's belittling the public service that this man has put forth. and shame on that comment. >> no, no. >> because this man has forfeited, as was just pointed out, what he could have made in millions of dollars to try and address a major issue that we're facing and to prevent it from getting worse. >> david -- >> so let's put it in perspective and honor those that do -- >> let's not -- >> that's what i'm pointing out. it's not fair for you to say what you said. >> hold on. you know what? john, go ahead. >> david, i'm not belittling this man's public service. i'm saying if you're going to call somebody who would you rather call, somebody who's served a bunch of vice presidents? let's say he's done it as fantastic as anybody ever has or
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somebody who's created bloomberg machine, also was mayor of new york or president bill clinton. >> john, you should try running the chief of staff office at the vice presidential level on -- >> jonas makes the best point. we don't even need this guy. we should have -- we already have the staff. we already have themanpower. but typical, as this administration has been doing, they don't do anything right. so it's all lost in the shuffle. but the people are already there. we don't even need to be having this conversation. >> hey, guys. cashing in just over an hour from now. eric, what do you guys have coming up? >> hi, brenda. with new ebola scares in the u.s., a majority of americans now on flights banned from ebola outbreak countries. what we can do if d.c. doesn't listen. plus, as student debt soars to record highs, is hillary clinton cashing in on rising education costs? the crew is all over that and a whole lot more. see you at 11:30. >> thanks, eric. we'll be watching. but up here first, bahumbug. it's not even halloween and
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we're already hearing stores will be opening their doors earlier than ever on thanksgiving. and something nearly 2/3 of you are doing right now may be the reason why. fox news go is the revolutionary way to watch fox news channel live on your desktop. stay tuned 24/7 and get the information you need. so what are you@?
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macy's unlocking its doors two hours sooner at 6:00 p.m. to lure in holiday shoppers. is this why? over 2/3 of americans saying they're cutting back on spending. as a new report shows retail sales are falling. now, gary b., on friday we did see consumer confidence rise unexpectedly, but do you think the grinch is going to steal this year's holiday cheer? >> i do, brenda. you know, my gauge for how good christmas is going to be is always basically my own feelings. and i've been grumpy now for about two weeks. look, i think it boils down to the double-edged sword, if you will. you've got one half of the country greatly affected by the lack of rise in median income. we are all feeling poor. then you've got the other half of the country that's seen their 401(k)s, their richness index get plummeted. so they're all feeling poor. brenda, there's no one out there willing to spend right now.
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>> tracy? >> i also don't think there's anything that's going to blow your mind come christmas time either. other than some technology, people will probably buy, you know, new phones, things like that. but otherwise, walk through the mall. there's nothing to buy. so if you're tight with your cash to begin with and nothing is pulling you into the stores to buy, it you're certainly going to want to keep it. and i think that's what we're going to see. deja vu all over again. i feel like it's been this way for a few years now and we're not getting out of this rut. >> okay, david, quickly. >> i think the recovery is going well but i think it's been a bit unbalanced. you have most americans who have not felt what benefits have accrued to a few americans, and they have student loans, now at $1.2 trillion. they have income inequality. they have no minimum -- raise in minimum wage. so they're not going to be jumping up and down to go and create demand on christmas. so it's not the grinch stealing christmas. it is minimum wage not being prize raised and those other
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issues. >> john. >> i don't think it has anything to do with minimum wage. we have more americans not work than in our history. gas numbers. i think americans spend on christmas. as tracy said, you need something to spend on it. we don't see that item that is a must-have yet. i think that probably will come. but i think with gas prices down we'll see a pretty good christmas. i actually bought two retail stocks this week because of that. >> jonas, very quickly. i'm sorry. you've got 20 seconds. >> for a lot of people this is as good as it gets economy but that consumer sentiment number from michigan is the best in seven years. it's a very optimistic sign for how people will spend. i was in a line at the apple store. i think things are better than they look for many people. >> technology may be it. thanks, guys. and thank you, david, for joining us. we appreciate it. >> thank you. parents, listen up. you'd better check out what little johnny and janie are putting up on facebook because you could be facing a lawsuit.
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predictions. gary b., take it away. >> brenda, everyone from hbo to cbs is getting into the streaming arena. i think verizon benefits. stock up 30% in a year. >> john, what do you i? what's your prediction? >> gopro is my favorite stock i own it. i think it's up 50% in six months. >> and jonas. >> next week applepay hits and that links your american express card with your phone. you can just tap your phone on stuff to pay for it. good for american express. 20% in a year. >> you get so excited about this. >> tracy. >> a georgia appeals court ruled
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that parents can be held responsible for what their kids post on facebook. everybody better go home and check what your kids are posting. >> john, do you watch what you're posting? >> my dad's on facebook and he's 83. >> that's good. coming up, "cavuto on business." >> it's still hot but we're still giving passes to people in ebola hot zones. hello, everyone. i'm charles lane in for neil cavuto. united states embassies in ebola zones of guinea, sierra leone and liberia are processing up to 100 visa applications daily. if approved, those people would be free to come to the united states. now, top republican lawmaker firing off a letter to the state department calling a halt to all applications until this threat is over. makes sense to me. why can't we make this happen? to ben stein, gary along with adam lashinsky and
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