the season. >> it is all about retail. with every penny down and the price for a gallon of gas, $1 billion, we could see stocks continuing to rally for the rest of the year. dave: we will come back to you as we talk about various trends happening. it is up next day on wall street. dow jones industrials up a tick percentage zubov whys, the s&p is down, nasdaq but a little bit. it may settle the downside. the biggest affected sectors the small and medium-size stocks represented by the russell 2,000. that was a significant turn to the downside about one.5%. we have a busy day, loyal top of the agenda. "after the bell" starts right now. breaking down today's market,

permanent portfolio, tell us what he thinks stocks are still reasonably priced as three picks to have your portfolio, and bob haeckel is with us from the floor of an icy and chris roberson in the pits of the cme. we are going to talk about oil. where does it go down from here? >> you must consider '70s the big number, a low of 67-3/4. 65 or 60, 55, a lot of people thought the $70 level, and that supposedly put pressure on fracking operations here. that continues to happen but you have plenty of supply, lower demand worldwide. you have prices covered. there was a very big move yesterday, last night. $5 include was a big move. if you own crude you have law morning getting out of that

position. that is the big thing we're looking at. and the current funding of the u.s. dollar, the u.s. dollars a stone's produce 4-1/2 year-. and the thing macro traders are looking at. tracy: a bunch of hicks, before we get there and let's talk big picture. you kind of got to be in it to wind it even though a lot of people say it is overvalued. >> i don't think the stock market is overvalued. is fairly valued. corporate earnings are growing mid single-digit. when you look at the best policy direction they will raise interest rates at some point but they are in a box as to how much they can raise rates. as long as those conditions holes, the u.s. economy as long as those conditions will be make money in stocks, dividend yields support earnings and u.s. companies are doing okay. in the broader sense when you are looking at energy today, in

the short-term for consumers this is great, energy prices come down and is great for the airlines' but if demand is that bad and you can hold 65, $50 oil, what does that say about global growth, that will head the u.s. economy. dave: we had good domestic to gain more traction. and fears of the slowdown are affecting u.s. markets, are they not? >> the other thing is we had a slower week this week. have the day on friday. we will not see that much action going on, and the market should pick up as santa claus rally. end to help the u.s. consumer. tracy: i know you sticking

around. tell us about your picks. there's some stuff out there you want people to put their money in now. >> we are pretty diversified all the time so hedge your bets in a lot of areas. if we are talking to equity, ideas in our portfolio for a long time continues to be facebook. multiple revenue streams, chances to monetize the intangible assets of inflammation and people that they have and the ability to interact on that site. the business lines that are successful, no question the growing mobile business and mobiles growing with a computer and there's a lot of potential going forward. janice capital in the financial-services area is a smaller cap demand is a play upon bill growth going there and raising aspects for the long term but even without that, isn't building the business of multiple asset class strategy,

they are rolling out some of their performance issues that they have over the last several years. there is a lot of operating leverage and growth in that stock going forward. dave: peabody is a contrarian bid, down 6%, peabody energy. i am curious as to whether there are investors, a hedge that at this point, eventually oil will come back and prices with it. how many investors are backing to the energy sector will bottom out somewhere around here. >> a lot of people taking shots after that break looking for a bounce back. that is always something traders are trying to do. also again the money flow. next monday, tuesday, wednesday, that will be a good signal for what we have for the rest of the year. typically december is the chop

the month. if they made money for the year it goes in the books so i think absolutely you see people taking a shot, looking for a bounce in crude oil. tracy: mike likes financial and the tech sector. where would you be putting money from now to the end of the year? >> the whole theory of bosh on the rumor, sell on the news, you have the news down now, opec and what their decisions will be or don't catch a falling knife. is an opportunity to give you a nibble on diesel oil stocks and one thing we look at is noble for a penny, one we are taking a look at, something to keep an eye on. dave: with all this focus on oil don't want to lose sight on gold. gold was down $33, it is down, sunday there is a big referendum in switzerland with a return to the gold standard in fact they do. could gold bounceback?

>> that is always a possibility. look what gold has done. we have a one month high last week, $1,200. it looks -- 1130. and hundred dollar trading range, and the gold bugs back on track. if you look at what gold has done in the past two years versus what the stock market has done the gold traded up the 1950 and a month ago we were at 1130 so if you liked it at 1950 why not load up again in the 1200 area. dave: talking fundamentals, you don't think the swiss vote will have anything to do with the price of gold? >> i don't believe so. it may be something people decide is bullish and they get caught. looks more like a range trade

and also gold has become a currency hedge. if you look at where the u.s. dollar is commie is near four year high, gold is your four year low. that is more what is going on. i could be wrong but gold going higher if it is time to get along, that is what you have to look at but i think it is at this point if something blows up in the world we don't see you will see that trade. tracy: michael, coming in to the end of the year, people will see some bonus money. would you put it in a financial nortek edf? if you take individual stocks? >> as a long-term investor i would be looking at areas that have been down as opposed to areas that are trading at the higher range. if you are in them you ride them, but i look at other areas there been down. gold is a great example. a couple points on gold, the swiss vote if it is successful and it looks like it may not be

in the short term won't do much but long term it will create additional buyer and the other thing that is happening is you have a lot of currency devaluation around the world, they are all buyers out there not in the u.s. but around the world whose currencies have been devalued entity look at golden the last 18 months it is not the 1900 number. it is more and the trading range from the lowly 11s to the low 13s so despite the move today it is a broader consolidation phase. near the cost of production right now and it is not off sexy trade but for a long-term investor looking to hedge against the equity market and uncertainty and there's a lot of a round world. tracy: stick around with us, the s&p futures are going to close since the don't move. dave: opec decided to keep the spigots open causing world oil prices to tumble down the-3/4%

today. how long will it go down and will drive u.s. oil crackers out of business? tracy: the outlet malls used to be associated with lower end brands. but now you can find luxury labels, believe the not all in the outlet stores. we will find out what the trend is and attracting big sales. jeff flock is there. dave: something crazy here. after the democrats receive something in the midterm elections, finger-pointing among democrats could actually be a boon for businesses. says liberal n.y. senator chuck schumer really changed his stripes and is now pro-business. ♪

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>> it is unchanged for the day. it is down 5, it is not an event. dow futures trading and ended points of the 1800 level. and 16,000 prints in the dow. it is at 2100. they are saying that. dave: thanks, have a good weekend. dave: they are on fire, the group completely posting gains out opposing the market, contrary to what i said. everyone will cybershot. as that we're getting incredible numbers from wal-mart and target. live from the chicago fashion outlets in rosemont, ill.. how crazy is it? >> it is only anecdotal but i tell you we have seen nothing

but lines everywhere. this is tory birch, the coach men's will a new. the lines to get into these places. and i tell you the manager of the small told us earlier today on fox business he thinks a big factor of gasoline prices, if you take a look at the retail edf and compare that to gasoline you see when one goes in one direction, the other goes in the other. when gas prices go down retail goes up. as you point out we are in that unique retail environment. these are high end outlets. michael course, gucci down there, from the few product outlets, this is high end stuff on the top floor. stocks on the first floor you have the typical retailers like nike for example. they have done well in terms of stock and that is a conventional

one. companies like tiffany and that sort of thing, high end ones, these are places you don't get in most outlets doing real well. you want to make money, there is a stock for you, just poking around, that is 116%, one year. the companies announced this real-estate investment trust that owns this small, they are up 22%, three months. they bought interest in this small. it is the big success. tracy: i have spent many a time there. dave: not just the retail outlets. it is the online shows. target, 40% increase over last year's so everybody, this is great news, appreciate it. tracy: to jeff's point gas

prices down, people have extra cash in their pockets and willing to spend some money. dave: oil prices are plunging. they were down 8.45% today. it is unbelievable how much further it will go. joining us is chris jarvis, risk-management ceo and president we know how much oil has fallen over the past week, just extraordinary price crashed. white is opec continuing to pump oil? how low do they want the price to go? can you hear me, chris? all right. we are going to take a short break and come right back and get chris to answer those questions. the big question is why is opec continuing to shoot itself in the foot? the great things about oil prices plummeting is it allows consumers to have more cash in

their pockets. but our retail investors getting too judy about retailing market right now? tracy: is it really that much money extra? and ebola could mean big bucks for your portfolio. we will explain all that next.

dave: sounded issues worked out. we are back with the risk-management and ceo. you couldn't hear me before. why is opec doing this? to a lot of people look like they're shooting themselves in the foot. >> action lease a are not. this comes down on market share gain. the decision is monumental because what they are saying is welcome to the world oil production in the united states, now you will feel some pain. they won't lower production just so the united states producers will benefit.

they will let it go lower and see how much u.s. energy production comes off. tracy: do you think that will happen? will this call if he grows with the keystone pipeline going forward we don't care, we will keep going? >> this really is not going to impact keystone too much. when you take a look at high-cost production, the marginal production in the united states is high cost. and another $10 to real and out. dave: we talk about consumers, many in the pocket, and dragged to the mall. and russia and iran are getting crushed. are they not?

>> that is the silver lining. consumer's benefit and and look at geopolitically, saudi arabia based on $100 oil, three years reserves, building dollars in reserves but oil at $65 cutting through that quick, a lot of hot spots are under the gun, certainly benefits from geopolitical standpoint. tracy: had the benefit in your portfolio? what are you looking at? exxon, anadarko, what are your favorites? >> oil has dropped but if you look back from june of 2009 to october of 2010, $68 level, if you start to nibble on diesel oil names, e o ig and anadarko, the best house on the block, these sitdown molds. if you tone down the risk of a

little bit and look at exxon mobile and chevron after integrated oil which offset some oil price weakness you get a dividend yield. those are the names we focus on if you are getting back in the market. tracy: thanks for sticking with us through all of this. dave: shale oil stocks getting crushed today. down 12, 20, even 36% as the price war causes havoc among domestic oil and gas producers will the opec will play kill off all u.s. shale oil? that is the first question for our panel. steve more, heritage foundation, and advisers managing partner, how do you pronouns that? >> each the retail advisory chief. you have written about and lectured about the fracking business. they are hurting bad.

don't know if you saw that charge at the top but they are getting crushed today. how much water. i am told profitability varies between $70 a barrel and which some companies go out of business and if it gets much lower is and it is now the majority of them will go out of business. >> i don't see it that way. it is true once these prices are found by 35% it has been a big negative for the shield players but they can still make money, 50 to $60 a barrel which -- dave: what we are looking at, look at the tuscaloosa marine shale, at $79 if it goes below 79, they are unprofitable. there are others like colorado and wyoming which have a price target of $50. anything lowered they become unprofitable so it's a large sum will go out of business if these prices remain. >> that is true.

my point would be this. the technology is improving so dramatically with fracking technologies that will get cheaper and cheaper over time. there was a report from one of the russian oil companies that this is just a big bubble in the shale, oil and gas in the united states. the technology makes it better it will be cheaper. dave: if oil comes down below $60 do these companies survive or not? >> at least 60% to 70% of recent upstarts who relied on cheap debt and financing to get their business going when oil was at $110 a barrel those companies will go out of business or scaled back dramatically probably leading towards going out of business unfortunately. i disagree with the previous guy. we are seeing a bubble popped. even with the talk of production being so high. even the past two years why was

oil $110 a barrel. it was due to geopolitical fear and influences, syria, iraq, we will see a big fundamental shift in the u.s. shale producers. if we get below 50 which is possible. dave: will prices are continuing to be lifesavers and the number of retailers. as consumers have more money in the pocket, will the retail market exceed expectations? we are getting incredible numbers about the retail bonanza. it is early in the holiday season but walmart, 22 million transactions through the night, target online sales running 40% higher than last year. >> it was unbelievable. they still had traffic in there. it was lighter than we saw in the evening but they were lining up to buy and one of the

reasons, people are really feeling they need to consume. and people go ahead and spend because they spend so much. they haven't had the opportunity to spend. they feel better about the economy and also the millennials are the ones that are beating the spending frenzy. 18 to 24-year-olds are not buying homes. they feel better about their homes and most having jobs. dave: we buy in the retail sector? >> this is a bullish trend, i don't think anybody should stand in front of to the bear side. this is the major major bullish trend, when i look at the prices of gasoline in the futures market, and i was utterly shocked. gas prices are continuing to head lower and lower and to decrease prices at the pump the down months after the price it

-- prices move. today easy prices down can, $0.15, they feel more confident seeing more money at the pump. dave: will we have a blowout holiday season? >> we are. it is not just retailed but restaurants. restaurants do well when the gasoline prices fall because people go out to eat more. dave: coming up next could a split between democrats and the white house be good news for businesses? we have a feel good story at a fergus and following the riots earlier. tracy: will one of the busiest traveling days of the year lead to more online it theft? is there anything unwitting shoppers can't do to protect themselves? we will ask one of the top guys at mcafee. as shoppers flocked to the malls and on line one are the hottest selling toys and are there any

left? rich edson has been -- seems like something is over his head. he is looking for deals and trying to find a few things. we will be right back.

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dave: president obama may not have noticed the election results but other members of his party have. a split between pro-business democrat and the white house may be good news for businesses in

the new year. there are a lot of e shoes that would be pro-business that this new congress, not only republicans but some newly new religion democrats finding business is a good thing voting along with the republicans, repatriation of foreign capital and tax simplification. >> i am a little skeptical. the term pro-business democrat is almost a contradiction in terms. we will see whether democrats inc. this message that they want jobs and economic growth. what is chuck schumer said the other day was positive, let's start concentrating on things that help the middle class and business and i think one of the reasons he likes the idea of repatriation of foreign capital to the united states allow will come back to new york city. dave: i really don't care what is in chuck schumer's heart. i prefer not to know.

i do know one thing in his heart, he wants to get reelected. noticed the election results and has a lot of people in business in new york that could vote him out of office if he doesn't become pro-business and won't along with republicans on these pro-business measures? >> i do believe he will. he is frustrated with obama in general. he broke the company line sets to speak and publicly criticized obama's focus on obamacare. it was interesting to see that. we haven't seen that happening years. the bigger picture is i don't think any major changes will take place until we get a president who is really aligned with the so-called -- dave: if you have all republicans going for tax simplification, bringing down the corporate tax rate, repatriation of capital and a few democrats that would be enough to override a presidential veto.

>> i hope you are right but that is what the small businesses need. >> when chuck schumer is coming to bat for this. dave: finally a real feel good story. and receive $200,000 donations to the start over from around the country so have the socialists occupy idiots lost and have free enterprise recaptured the hearts and minds of the public? jason, i got to believe they have. people prefer free enterprise to these socialists. >> of course. that is obviously in the dna of america. this is one of my favorite stories, she was actually the bakery owner was asking for $20,000 in donations and she got $220,000 plus. what this speaks to is the

american dna is pro free enterprise, perot people using their energy constructively. anytime anybody stands up like this 32-year-old woman starting a business from scratch the get supported and i think we need leadership starting at the top. dave: we are not going to get it from president obama. if anything he is more in favor of the protesters and they are being laughed out of existence. they had these protests in macy's and bloomingdale's and got no attraction at all. >> their protests are not going to affect the walmarts, macy's and targets of the world. it is the small businesses they will impact. they are doing brown friday trying to make sure people aren't spending, to raise awareness. that is only going to hurt the local businesses. don't know why they would want to hurt the community. dave: you and i have known for years that obviously free enterprise has more attractions and socialism but there has been so much attention by the media

given to these occupy guys who are out there and they just hate the free-market. they use their iphones to call their friends and everything's. it is easy to be against capitalism when you have an iphone. >> i would say the real story, i don't know if americans love capitalism but they love the byproduct of capitalism which is low prices and the fact you can go to wal-mart or target or these incredible stores and buy cheap things and people say to these protesters get out of my way, i want to get the i phone with this -- i hope americans appreciate that capitalism creates these everyday -- dave: i think the testimony to is that is the money natalie's bakery received. people of the free enterprise system in america. you can catch piece again tonight, you don't want to miss a special making money with charles payne, investing 101

tonight at 6:00 p.m. with charles. tracy: we are in the middle of one of the busiest shopping records of the year. door buster holiday deals, cyberhackers watching your every move. we will tell you about unwrapping a hack attack this holiday season. investing in hollywood sounds like a sexy money play but could also be a dangerous minefield for your portfolio. we will tell you how to navigate hollywood landscapes and score some returns. don't go anywhere. we will be right back.

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and could save you in out-of-pocket medical costs. call now to request your free decision guide. and learn more about the kinds of plans that will be here for you now -- and down the road. i have a lifetime of experience. so i know how important that is. dave: breaking news on oil, telling you how much the price of oil has gone down even further, a 10%, almost 10.5% fall tuesday. that is the close, $65.99. i don't think we had of all this big since the fall of 2008 before the financial crisis. the question is how much longer opec continues to do this. tracy: consumers will take advantage of it, holiday

shopping season is a gold mine. it is also a magnet for cyberhackers looking to capitalize on and distracted shoppers. dave: how you protect u.s. all from cyber hack attack? gary davis, chief consumer security and hedge list, the most popular digital scanners and ways to avoid them. did we learn anything? is it possible this year could be worse? >> i think this year will be better. what we learned from the big acts that were highly publicized, i expect this year to be better than last year because retailers are taking notice, to make sure that things don't happen. tracy: you list well scams of the holidays. the deceptive advertising, and what should people be most aware of? >> fishing scams for the holidays.

i got one this morning from costco saying this package, we will help you get it. these sort of things, fishing scams are getting so much like you actually get from a real vendors that that is causing confusion. they think we have a package at costco, let's go fill the data when you are giving your information to a hacker. dave: i never man had much hope of the government fixing things, they can't fix anything. this battle, one thing that stopped legislation focusing on cyberscams, can't figure out who should play for the money that would fix things whether it is retailers or card companies that should pay for them. how do they work that out? >> this will be an ongoing challenge. ultimately the consumer will bear the price for putting new technology in. i believe in 2013 the retailers in north america will go to what is called the cit and pin method

that has been in place for several years and we will not see a major breach of the retailer for several years. i believe once we view that technology we will start seeing in 2015 it will help retailers out quite a bit. it will help consumers because in that environment, you are not sharing credit card information but giving them a transaction verifications that it worked. tracy: uncomfortable that corporations -- anyone that mentions targets or home depot is probably coming at a table with cash because they are squarely nervous. >> anything that happens with highly publicized breaches, security has become a board of discussion. how do we deploy security for its strategic differentiation. how we make sure we are best protected, to protect consumers that pressed us. dave: hope you don't mind my

asking, when people hear mcafee, what happened to john mcafee? what is he up to these days? >> he has not been associated with the company for 17 years. i have no idea what he is a 2. dave: allow viewers wanted to know. the chief consumer security evangelist, appreciate your coming gone. tracy: everyone gets e cards. beware of those and make sure you know where they're coming from. dave: we learned from past mistakes and hopefully things will get better. tracy: coming of the force already appears to be with disney, just released a 90 seconds trailer of the new star wars film the force awakens. disney hitting an all-time intraday high. the other hollywood heavyweight, how can you invest in them to get a piece of smaller but highly profitable independence

movie houses. you have media society ceo wayne bradley with all the answers. dave: where can you really get the best black friday deals today and leave have to head to ebay to get that 1 told every child claims they can't live without? rich edson has summoned his inner child. we have a full report. how could a luminous protein in jellyfish, impact life expectancy in the u.s., real estate in hong kong, and the optics industry in germany? at t. rowe price, we understand the connections of a complex, global economy. it's just one reason over 70% of our mutual funds beat their 10-year lipper average. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. request a prospectus or summary prospectus with investment information, risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investing.

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tracy: the magical world of disney getting a big boost today, stock hitting an all-time high on the day on the release of the triple latest installment in disney's star wars franchise. star wars:the force awakens. dave: the stock market trading in record territory for the stocks investing in an alternative asset like the film seems crazy to a lot of investors but our next guest says in the ec grid and investing in a volatile market and the whole company joining us now to explain is weighed bradley, a media society at ceo. with disney's stock at an all-time high why wouldn't i want to go with a big company that is the hedge against itself, has a lot of different divisions within it rather than investing in one film which is a lot more risky i would thing. >> our folks invest in suites of films but they are allocating of a market, taking a non correlating asset because

they're looking at the market saying we probably captured 90 to 95% of this bull run that has been in place for 66 months. now they have an opportunity, take those gains of the table, reinvest outside the market in something that if the market does correct substantially you are going to get a boost on that investment as well. tracy: so you are using this as a hedge for high net worth individual. >> it does act in that way. tracy: moviegoers are fickle. a lot of people don't like a lot of stuff out there. >> absolutely. it is one of the reasons we target underserved markets like field last 30 and up, insatiable appetite markets like a horror market. dave: there's also a kind of more than money, there's the vanity aspect to what you do to appeal to people by saying you get your names in credits, you go to parties with actors and actresses. that plays a part in this investment. >> at the end of the day the

initiative the investment because of the managed risk strategy but it does count towards something. is awesome for them. the meet some people it never me otherwise. tracy: i can't believe poor is still up there. dave: it is there. tracy: give a ball park on the return of investment investors are seeing. >> we target 30% to 60% return in the mid to high range and it occurs over a 36 month period. dave: how do your films get distributed to give people talk about the distribution mafia for film, keeping out folks like you. >> when you make high-quality film with top tier producers, you have a product that is the distributors want. we are in the midst, we already finished the film we talked about last time. it is already completed. we are in negotiations with a dozen distributors. dave: isn't there, don't they

have a minimum requirement that would keep a lot of your films out? >> they want great quality product that will attract an audience. all of our product is open and accessible. dave: what is your favorite coming down the pike? >> i just saw bird man recently. dave: is a fox film. >> really phenomenal. that is kind of the big movies that have gone out and seen recently. big stone gap, our movie i an incredibly excited about. tracy: that is what the goldberg. >> ashley judd, patrick wilson, phenomenal film and not a dry eye in the audience at the end. dave: is not cheap. you have a minimum investment. >> $150,000 for people to participate. dave: congratulations, thank you for being here. tracy: to be on the red carpet, i don't know. dave: we have red carpets here at fox. one retailer looking to

capitalize big this black friday, close our eyes. the store has been open since 5:00 p.m. yesterday and hired an additional 45,000 seasonal workers. tracy: how his business and for the retailer so far? rich edson joining us live from the toys r us in times square. i saw the drone come across the balcony earlier. some decent voice out there. any must have items? >> plenty of must have items here. cause should fly. this codifies. i would show it to you but we have been playing with it so much we killed the battery on it so i can't tell you but the other must have, toys r us drop the lot of stuff. was our starts figuring out what toys is going to get exclusively. talking to disney for a year to get deals on stuff like this. once black friday ends they head

over to hong kong with their executive to work out deals for next black friday. we got here at 4:00, he wasn't all that busy. look at it now. they expect tens of thousands of people, we are in times square. there is the element of people who come down from all over the world and we have plenty of shoppers here, plenty of tourists with bags, people with absolutely nothing, the retail federation expects 140 million shoppers overs this holiday season thursday, friday, saturday, sunday, the next four days or so during the black friday shopping season and expect 600 billion plus dollars in commercial activity between now and christmas time. dave: very quick question because we are running out of time. what do the shopkeepers tell you about how this compares to last year? >> is as busy as last year.

it is pretty similar, pretty crowded. dave: if you have a chance to be in manhattan you have to go to toys r us, the best one with a ferris wheel and everything. thank you very much. have a great weekend. >> money with melissa frances next. >> you dream of having money? of course you have. many makers are sharing their tips so you can. even when they say it is not it is always about money. money is always trying to get you the most bang for your buck. fox business cheryl bisson kicks it up for us in new york city.