Skip to main content

tv   After the Bell  FOX Business  December 22, 2014 4:00pm-5:01pm EST

4:00 pm
saying this is $100 stock. [closing bell ringing] closing session at 81, hitting a massive year and another high. david: wow. liz: here are the bells on wall street, david. four in a row. four big rallyies in a row. with the dow charging ahead by 155 points. interesting backdrop that broke in the last hour that north korea suffered a massive online outage. they have no internet access. is there some shenanigans on this? the united states government declining on that our markets took off. up the nasdaq by 16 points. "after the bell" starts right now. liz: it is a record for the s&p 500 of the number to beat was 2075. david: extraordinary. we're less than 40 points away from 18,000 on the dow. liz: let's get right to today's
4:01 pm
market action of the fire has been lit unall of our people we have here. christian mcgoon from yield shares, says the markets won't rely on what the fed says in 2015. we'll ask him what will they rely on? john few hi says we'll continue to see volatile markets to the end of the year. this is tacked on to three major rallies last week. what do you ad attribute the gain? thinner volume, not surprising as we head into the beginning of a holiday week. >> like i said couple weeks ago it would be slow to the end of year, right, nothing happened. we're right where we started. no. i think all honestly, the big break was short oil, shout s&p sent the whole market lower. that has broken apart. you can't short oil to force the s&p 500 down. that has broken apart. oil down close to $2.
4:02 pm
exxonmobil is down less than 50 cents. they stopped throwing babies out with the bath water. really good names. diversified oil names. refiners really started to rally, rocketed off those lows. exxon back above 92 1/2 toward 93. chevrontexaco back toward 110. that is what i point toward. we've seen strength in a lot of really good oil names really not allowing the dow and s&p to tank with oil. david: christian, let's look at the whole week here. because we've had extraordinary week of gains despite some of the same problems a few weeks ago were causing the markets to go down. what caused the reverse? >> i think it was initially an overreaction, dave. i think the oil decline took a lot of people by surprise. once that was die guessed, i think the -- digested i think aftermath led a few attractive values. energy companies are stablized.
4:03 pm
there is interest going in and bargain prices on these oil companies specifically. liz: okay, christian, let me get to you. you're remaining cautiously optimistic into the end of the year. cautiously optimistic we call that a little bit of a copout. take a stand here. should we be in stocks or out, or half bonds, half stocks? what is your recommended allocation. >> for liz, for you, be in the stock market. let's not miss out on this year-end rally. liz: okay. >> there is definitely a lot of momentum seems to be building in the last week or so. last week was the best week in the stock market for over, second best week in the stock market for over two years. so there is a lot of opportunity there. i think investors who are out feel like they're missing in and i think that is increasing momentum going into year-end. david: john, despite oil prices continuing to go down, the oil sector took a little bit of a hit, not as much as you expect with 3% move in the price of
4:04 pm
oil, time to start picking through the oil sector to see stocks that really remain strong and doing well long-term, one of those you pick is occidental. why? >> well, i think it is one of those, the phrase was used throw out the babies with the bath water. i don't know that it's a baby but i think it is a company, an oil company that has a lot of cash, low net debt position, some low-cost oil production and its undergoing portfolio redesign. it sold off its california business. that at least 80% of it in an ipo. it will ramp up low-cost production in the permanent mean and likely sell solve on business in the middle east. free cash flow dividend and much better positioned than other e&p companies. we think that is an energy company to take a good, hard look at. liz: mark, when we talk about
4:05 pm
energy and you talk about the behavior of what happened, once again we started to see oil go down and again we are below significant levels here. i'm just checking for crude. again it is in the after-market session at the moment but looking at brent, $60, light sweet, 55.32, what do you think is the next play here and do you see trend within the pits where you start to see flows that are dependent on what the price of crude is doing that day? >> you know, i would say, one thing to watch is that oil does not going to make a straight plummet down anymore. it is making kind of a down two bucks, up 1.90, down two bucks. its rate of descent is slowing down. what i think we'll see in next couple weeks if the oil stays in the $50 range you will start to see some of the big boys start to swallow some of smaller companies at their weakest trying to get their technology and a lot of that capacity either off the market or at a
4:06 pm
really inexpensive level. that will be a real sign that the oil market is potting. we see a lot of deals at tops and bottoms. i think that's really what we're going to see here. what is the next level for oil? you know, there has got to be a level that the saudis start to step in. i don't know what it is. david: yeah. >> exxonmobil, the big boys say they can make money at 40 bucks a barrel. david: who knows. the saudis are blaming it all on other people. saudis are saying it is your fault, not us doing it. frankly i don't buy. that christian, let's move to the tech sector. there are great opportunities for tex expansion. how do you take advantage? i know you like a particular tech spdr fund. >> that's right, david xlk is select spdr etf. a broadway to play the technology market. i like it. there is a lot of growth that can happen in the technology space, not just organic growth but mergers and acquisitions and there is potential in
4:07 pm
cybersecurity stocks. liz: cybersecurity stocks, that's a big story needless to say because sony has definitely become very much a target. that is the at forefront here. we had a breaking story at the top of 3:00, and dish and sony had a secret plan, or at least sony wanted dish to be part of that. talks fell apart. did not work out. sony is adamantly telling sources at the matter, telling fox business they want to release this thing. does that drive internet protection stocks and cybersecurity stocks or is it a trend type of situation? >> i think the impact that happened in sony, the very public, kind of attack is going to continue to drive cybersecurity, investing, and questions in the boardroom of companies. it is also going to move to the government, u.s. government and what kind of spending and method they can actually go in and help out with, given the fact that some of these attacks seem to be from other nation states. so looking at the cybersecurity
4:08 pm
companies and etf, move solidly up, i think that will be continued going into 2015. david: john, a lot of investors are having a tough time getting a fix what is happening with retail. first we seemed to have what was slow retail sales over thanksgiving holiday. now they're picking up a little and slowing. what do you think about retail and how do you play that market? >> i think retail is tough because there are apparel companies which i think are facing a headwind, a lot of competition and no hot product and everyone's interested in electronics. people are refurbishing their homes. so the home depots of the world are getting some traffic. but, when you talk retail, one stock that we like is a cvs. it is combination of retail with, sort of the front end and but has the back end pharmacy. so it has the benefit of the pharmacy if the trend, the tailwind from health care in the affordable care act, combined
4:09 pm
with, people will go to the pharmacy. they will go to the front end of the store. so we like stories where there is something structurally advantaging them and we would say that would be companies like home depot and lowe's are companies which, like cvs, which has the health care tailwind. liz: great to see all of you with your ideas. they're like mini stocking stuffers for us. david: yeah. liz: john, christian, mark sebastian. mark we'll see you in a few minutes when the s&p futures close. david: appreciate it. liz: we were talking about oil prices sliding lower today, hitting $55 a barrel. many believe this decline in oil now at 39% sips the start of the year. will it help the economy and lift some sectors but profiting from lower energy prices might be a little more complicated than investors realize. david: joining us, greg zuckerman, "wall street journal" special writer and author of, the frackers. this guy knows everything bit. we'll talk a little bit about
4:10 pm
that everybody knows energy stocks have taken a hint sill oil prices have come down but you talk about some other sectors that have taken a hit that may not be thought of in the same category. banking, how does banking take a hit from oil going down? >> that is a good question where banks in this country focus on energy or have a book on energy. 18% to 50% of their loans are in energy world. they are mid-sized banks. you have to be wary of them. that is the key. will there be contagion from the energy industry into others? david: what do you think? >> even a week ago the junk bond market was falling apart. 15, to 16% of the junk bond market is made up of energy exposure. now they're saying not so worried about it. i think there will be contagion. you will get banks, other kinds, retail, like a costco which is a buy. it is attractive yet they do a lot of energy as well. they're one of the biggest energy retailers as well.
4:11 pm
people forget about that. liz: everybody looks at airlines and says airlines are obviously beneficiaries of lower oil prices, lower jet fuel prices. are we missing something? is that the case? >> it is an obvious argument because they don't pass along those savings unfortunately to customers. the problem some of them are pretty expensive. american airlines such they are% from the lows. they're not cheap anymore. stocks you want to buy before they become too low. not to say there is for upside but they will not be the best winners going forward you would think. david: you did write the book on frack being, the frackers. a lot of people are saying some small companies overleveraged that maybe got in a little late on fracking they may fall by the wayside as a result of the price squeeze i think by the saudis. which companies survive though? what are the fracking companies that have so developed their technology they could survive
4:12 pm
60, 50, even $40 a barrel oil? >> yeah, good question because you are going to see dozens of smaller bankrupt companies. energy companies that raise a lot of money. banked junk bonds last few years and can't pay the debt back. david: talk about survivor. >> winners, somebody like eog resources. they have been one of pioneers when it comes to shale formations. the key they have a lot of them, pull back, focus on their best acreage. they have a nice balance sheet. continental has a balance sheet. only problem they took their hedges off. they have been hurt. as a result the stock come down a lot. long term i still think they're a winner i would argue. liz: what about consumers names? big names that attract, big box retailers, now people say i have more money to spend on those goods there? are there clear winners? >> it's a good question. it is challenging. look at somebody like home depot. you would think they would be a winner or a costco. but you wonder how much will it
4:13 pm
impact the consumer? yeah, they will save money when it comes to filling up at the bum pump but the housing market is starting to get weaker. that has been a benefit for consumer. maybe they'll will be offset. it is really challenging for the consumer. see that in the sock market. one week we're up because of oil falling. then we're down oil falling. then we're back up. it is confusing for the investor. david: if you have any questions about fracking pick up the book, "the frackers." it's a great book. tells you everything you need to know. >> thank you. david: greg zuckerman, "wall street journal." liz: sony continues to be a massive developing story. we had breaking news in the last hour that north korea's government has gone completely dark as it pertains to online business. over the weekend president barack obama is saying that north korea's sony hack was not an act of war. david: now we want to know what you think. was it an act of war? send us a message on facebook or tweet us @fbnatb. your answers coming up.
4:14 pm
liz: one sector has rallied some 29% this year, double the major indices. win analyst says 2015 could bring even bigger returns? really? we will tell you what sectors those are. david: also banking regulations, could a new congress provide some relief for the smaller, the community banks, burdened with massive new regulations? could that help consumers and small businesses to get loans and credit they need? liz: and another tv -- for dish network. the third this year. who will pick up angry consumers. speaking of dish, unable to seal a deal with sony to air "the interview." where does sony go next? >> super saturday beating out black friday? what retailers were super. that and much more with our panel straight ahead. ♪
4:15 pm
she's still the one for you. and cialis for daily use helps you be ready anytime the moment is right. cialis is also the only daily ed tablet approved to treat symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long term injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or any allergic reactions like rash, hives, swelling of the lips, tongue or throat, or difficulty breathing or swallowing, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis for daily use and a free 30-tablet trial.
4:16 pm
4:17 pm
you don't need to think about the energy that makes our lives possible. because we do. we're exxonmobil and powering the world responsibly is our job. because boiling an egg... isn't as simple as just boiling an egg. life takes energy. energy lives here.
4:18 pm
david: while many big banks have been doing quite well over the past three years a lot of smaller community banks have been hurt by a lot of new financial regulations as kansas city fed president esther george put it recently, quote, community banks have become entertaining gelled a web of
4:19 pm
reforms intended to address risks in the largest banks. will the new congress change this in 2015? with us, john allison, cato institute and ceo and president, former bb&t chairman, author of, the leadership crisis and a free market cure. john, thank you for being here. is esther george right? are the smaller banks getting crushed by regs that the big banks are just coasting through? >> absolutely david. i don't know if the big banks are coasting through but there is much more damage to small banks. this is what a lot of people don't understand, even though a regulations may be targeted at a large institution, ceo of a large institution has many people to delegate the work to. what i started at bb&t we were a small bank and regulations become a priority because they can put you in jail and your talent is limited at top of the organization. instead of focusing making loans and creating business and making economy better you spend all your time making government regulators happy. is has done, dodd-frank has done
4:20 pm
tremendous damage to the community banking industry. david: on january 1st, we have a new congress. we have the same president who approved of all the new regulations but the new congress doesn't but what can they do to change things? >> there is a lot of stuff they can do, repeal dodd-frank that would be good but they won't be able to do it getting it through president obama but this is a little esoteric but one of the biggest problems that's happened is fact that the federal reserve is forcing banks to be obsessed with mathematical modeling. small business lending, which is what makes small banks work and hugely important in terms of job creation is part art and part science. i was a small business lender and fortunately helped a lot of businesses get started that created thousands of jobs. the loans i made 30-years ago we can't meet today because they won't meet the mathematic modeling forced on community banks by government regulators.
4:21 pm
congress could say to the federal reserve, back away from mathematical modeling. it never worked. the it is same as global climate change, close to zero and let people use judgment and common sense and make valuations of people and ideas which is what makes small business lending works which is what drives small banks. david: you know, you're in washington a lot of the time. you know who writes up the regulations. they are lawyers and economists who live in ivory tower, they don't know the real world. and don't know as you say small business loans are more art than science. how will you drill it into these guys? how do you let them know these regses, one size fits all doesn't work? >> i think it will take congressional action at least some threats. federal reserve sometimes listens to congress. you're absolutely right. these are elitists smarter than anybody? i met with them a lot of times. i spent a long year in banking. fortunately my company was
4:22 pm
extremely profitable, but they are not interested in my ideas. david: how frustrating is that to talk to somebody who knows a lot less than you do about a subject and yet they're the ones who define the regulations for that subject? >> it is extremely frustrating and very destructive. they don't invite any business people, any bankers, to really be involved in this process. they just poo-poo your ideas because they know everything. it is very frustrating. david: one final question, john. we talked about regulations. we talked about banks and oil and how a lot of smaller banks in particular do have loans outstanding to some smaller oil companies that are getting killed, particularly the frackers. will that reverberate through the fracking industry? >> there will be impact on niche banks, particularly targeted towards the energy segment. on the other hand lower oil prices improves the economy. banks will have lower loss ratios in general than other
4:23 pm
aspects of their business. i suspect most banks will benefit, a few banks will be hurt. david: john allison, cato institute, merry christmas to you. >> thank you, david. david: liz? liz: as we reported exclusively sony's talks over the weekend to dish network to release the movie "the interview," broken down, not happening. where does sony turn to next? will they try to court another distributor for the controversial film? >> speaking of dish, the company at war with a content provider, a third one this year, fox. as channels disappear will customers flock elsewhere? the latest production sedan on the planet. though it is not a posh porsche or maserati, it is a dodge? a dodge? details ahead. you have to see. ♪
4:24 pm
you pay your auto insurance premium every month on the dot. you're like the poster child for paying on time. and then one day you tap the bumper of a station wagon. no big deal... until your insurance company jacks up your rates. you freak out. what good is having insurance if you get punished for using it? hey insurance companies, news flash. nobody's perfect. for drivers with accident forgiveness, liberty mutual won't raise your rates due to your first accident. see car insurance in a whole new light. liberty mutual insurance.
4:25 pm
4:26 pm
4:27 pm
the mercedes-benz winter event is back, with the perfect vehicle that's just right for you, no matter which list you're on. [ho, ho, ho, ho] lease the 2015 ml 350 for $579 a month at your local mercedes-benz dealer. david: time for a look at
4:28 pm
today's market drivers. all three major indices ending the day in the green with the s&p and dow closing at all-time highs. it was 50th record close of the year for s&p. existing home sales falling 6.1% in november to seasonally adjusted 4.93 million. economists expect ad decline of only 1%. natural gas price, falling 9% to nearly two-year low today. it was worst one day percentage loss since february. good for consumers, liz. >> fox business reported exclusively that sony and dish were feverishly working all weekend long for a plan for dish network to air the controversial movie, "the interview," december 25th, the same date as the initial release date but that deal appears to be canned at least for now. so where does sony go next. sony determined to run "the interview" somewhere. let's bring in our panel. jeff saut, raymond james, mark
4:29 pm
wolf, gray wolf technical partners chief technical analyst and fox business's adam shapiro who has been working story. dish and charlie ergen didn't want to do it. phone calls were made, our sources told exclusively there was discussions between sony and dish, right? put it out on satellite much the sony movie channel is already there. get it as a venue but it didn't come together. where does sony go next, adam? >> next, give it free on internet. put it out there. you've taken a $80 million loss. don't expect to get anything from this except saving face. at the same time bringing disrepute to people who shut you down in the first place. >> sony have a direct relationship to the consumer? they have to have the movies in theater or stream through bittorrent or netflix or crackle. apparently that was shot down. bit tore renter says we do it. sony hasn't dealt with them. as far as we know, not directv.
4:30 pm
my sources are telling me directv have no plans to offer this, they will not be offer it. >> again i say, free on the internet. they leaked five of their movies already. give them this one to boot. >> mark as you look what is going on with the markets and how they are reacting to all things north korean, we just saw in the last hour, as soon as news broke through the associated press that north korea has gone out, massive internet outage, could be sparked by perhaps the united states who is not commenting on this, but at moment during this hacking scandal how far does this go for the markets? >> i think the market has been oblivious. we haven't really reacted all that seriously what happened in north korea, nor should we. one of the streaming services will eventually pick this up. everyone wants the rhetoric to die down a bit. everybody is unanimous that sony was wrong in their decision to pull the movie. so now, a question of how to best serve the consumer. take the loss. show it on streaming service and
4:31 pm
get it out there to the public and make sure we don't respond to a, cyber threats and rogue nations like this and a matter like this ever again. >> let me just be clear. my sources at sony are saying they are trying to find a way. they will find a way to stream this or get it out somehow. we will be following that story. as year-end approaches with new records being set on the dow and s&p today alone, will the optimism continue next year? which areas might outperform in 2015? jeff, you have said that you expect another 10 to 12% for the s&p. you nailed it for 2014. which sectors could really benefit? >> i think technology and energy. i think energy has been overdone on the downside. there is real value there. you've already seen some of the midstream mlps have very nice bounces on the upside. genesis mlp ran for 39 bucks five sections ago to almost $45 today. i think accumulating tech which
4:32 pm
is underowned and energy will be the watchwords outperformance in 2015. liz: mark, you watch all of the charts. tech was a real standout today looking real good. what do you think as we go into 2015, where should we be overweight? >> i agree with jeff, technology should be a key sector to focus on. it has started to ramp up last few weeks. continues to be key area. look at financials. as interest rates ramp up, this has underperformed last couple years. my thinking it eventually need to play catch-up. this also looks very interesting to me. energy is a short-term buy agree with. i'm skeptical that, we stablized too much in oil just yet to put a lot of confidence in energy on intermediate term basis. for value players, looks certainly oversold technically, it should at least have a decent bounce in the months ahead. liz: adam, correct me if i'm wrong. seems like there is optimism. we have tailwind. >> right. liz: fed that is involved and
4:33 pm
better economic data for 2015. >> absolutely. i was going to say, this is why i don't manage anyone's money, i was going to say utilities because i think they're undervalued. here is another reason i don't manage people's money but consumer discretionary, even if energy prices go up you will enjoy the raise and money in your pocket at least first few months of 2016. liz: i'm thinking tiffany next lasts, coach purses discretionary. great. up next, dish we need to continue this discussion because yet another distribution fallout. can you profit from their negotiation skills or lack thereof? plus super saturday was indeed super beating out black friday. who are winners on this one? david, stay tuned. david: record closes for dow and s&p and three major indices are set to close the-year higher. but there is one sector, nearly doubling major indices returns. can you guess which one? will the performance of this sector continue next year?
4:34 pm
we'll tell you coming up. plus immigration, deepen the divide between political parties in four fourth. what the president is saying he wants to work with congress on a bill. what kind of a battle will well see in 2015? we have more on that. also, dodge, shedding its fannedly friendly image -- family friendly image. launching most powerful sedan on the market. wait until you see this car. ♪
4:35 pm
4:36 pm
4:37 pm
4:38 pm
liz: so, fox business and fox news are dark for dish network viewers. that is the third time this year dish has blacked out a channel due to contract disputes. could this be a win for cable names maybe? we're back with jeff saut, mark newton and adam shapiro. first it was, weather channel, cbs. they have all had disputes with dish. this is becoming more common when the carriage disputes ramp up i guess but jeff saut, is this an opportunity for the cable guys to say, come over here? >> well, let me say, charlie ergen is one of the smartest guys in the business but anytime you block somebody from a network like that i think it's a mistake and i think it is an opportunity for the cable people. liz: because the cable guys have their own carriage disputes depending on which month of which year, right, adam? >> you're correct. we've seen this playbook before. the problem is, the bottom line, yes, there is an opportunity for cable guys. there are 14 million dish customers, some will say this
4:39 pm
makes me so angry and might if they have option go to cable customer, cable supplier to get it. from long term i figure out who will benefit from these kind of disputes? is it content producer or the distribution mechanism? liz: can we just say i had a viewer say he would sit in his car and listen to the 4:00 and 3:00 shows today. our shows, because he said that is where he gets it, xm sirius because he has dish. >> did we settle our dispute with them. liz: he was so annoyed. i want to call but he wasn't happy. maybe it is siri. i don't know. you look at these names, jeff and figure any pop they might get is short term. >> i still, say it again, liz, i think anytime somebody blocks an organization as good as y'all's i think it's a mistake. liz: let's move on to super saturday. there is a new shopping day taking the crown. that is super saturday. sales for this past saturday are expected to well-exceed black
4:40 pm
friday sales thanks to last-minute shoppers. we're talking about billions of dollars done on a single day. adam, who comes out the winner. >> i'm not sure, obviously consumer but why do they call them sales. my email is filled 40% off, 40% off every day since thanksgiving. it is one constant sale day. why don't they call it that? liz: look at numbers, 10 billion versus black friday, 9.1 billion. it is a much bigger opportunity as you bump up jeff saut, what is closer day to christmas. >> i said it on your show many times in the past couple months. i think underlying economy is a lot stronger than the surface figures show. notion alley every penny drop in the price of gasoline at the pump puts extra one billion dollars purchasing power in the hand of the public. that is especially impactful after the low end of the wage scale. liz: mark newton, you look at charts of all the retail names, did you see any spikes, or sell on the news?
4:41 pm
>> retailers continue to show very good signs of strength. teen retailing area is particularly hard-hit. super saturday, santa sunday, cyber monday, people are shopping throughout the year, it is difficult to make predictions about a certain day and prove that accurate. there sun certainty about the economist. there are dispoints being rolled out. no surprise that super saturday was a bit higher today than black monday or black friday. >> margins and then numbers as the duty settles. great to have all of you in lively panel. jeff saut, raymond james and mark newton, and our own fox business's adam shapiro. david? david: all the sectors did great but there is one sector in the market up 30% this year, outperforming all of the others. up next we tell you why the uptrend could continue and how you can still get in on the action. plus one of the most
4:42 pm
contentious issues in d.c. this year has been immigration. up next, rich edson from inside the beltway will give us the lowdown how the battle over immigration is shaping up tore 2015. note ♪
4:43 pm
4:44 pm
4:45 pm
4:46 pm
david: this is so cool. it has got the most horsepower than any sedan in the world. not a porsche, mercedes-benz or maserati. it's a dodge of the company released dodger xrt hellcat. it has a supercharged 707-horsepower engine. it can go 204 miles per hour. the hellcat goes from zero to 60 miles per hour in only 3.5 seconds. it gets around 22 miles per hour. not a bad combination. the car will sell just under $65,000. i pray that my wife is listening right now. >> very sexy. david: i love that car. liz: there is one sector, not auto sector, in the market that has been outperforming all the major indices so far this year. it is the reit sector, real estate investment trusts. they have rallied nearly 29% so far this year, wow. david: with the sector set to become the 11th s&p 500 sector in 2015, is 2016 the time
4:47 pm
to get in? joining us is the chief strategy officer. thank you for coming in. so apartment reits, in particular are just soar, and it is because of a relationship between millenials and the job situation. explain. >> thanks for having me on, liz and david. great to be on with you again. the underlying asset is what it is all about. commercial real estate in general has been doing very well. the recovery is actually exhilarating thanks to better job numbers last few months and very low interest rates. so reits are reflection of strength for the whole asset class. apartments in particular were the first to recover as you well know because of the housing crisis. they really sustained their strength because there is so much demand coming from both young adult looking for entry level sort of an apartment unit but more importantly, from the professional adult, 30 somethings that are capturing a lot of profession service jobs and empty nesters selling their hopes and choosing to rent a
4:48 pm
high-end apartment in an urban area. those seem to be the most sort of relevant trend we're seeing on the ground. liz: wealth trend are certainly exciting but so are dividends, am i correct? that's why people want to invest in the real estate investment trusts. talk about dividends available for names you like right now? >> we do a study every year going into every new year and forecast, gets a sort of a ranking by market area by metro for each of the property types. retail office centers, apartments are something we analyze at a market level. if you look at those markets you see the job leaders across all different property types are have different rental growth prospects because of those reits in metros tend to do well. on top of that, dividend yield of 3% or more, for yields on average generated by reits but there are sectors that yield even more than.
4:49 pm
that you have to really look at investment spectrum and manage risk to the returns. >> i get that. >> sectors like hotel are higher risk, higher return versus apartments that perceive to be safer. liz: okay. david: tell us which areas are doing the best. not all areas are wall in the u.s. some are good. some are not so good. >> you're absolutely right, very clear on that because market performance has been different by metro. if you look at texas metros for example, that have done very, very well over last three years, the energy sector having slowed down is a bit of a concern but texas is really diversified. if you look at florida markets they're just not beginning to come back. coastal markets, new york, washington, d.c., boston and on west coast, seattle, san francisco, los angeles are very supply constrained markets. it is very hard to and expensive to add new apartment buildings or shopping centers and office buildings they tend to attract more investor demand.
4:50 pm
liz: the conventional wisdom when it comes to winners at end of one year, means they might be losers next year. the old dogs of the dow, those kind of theories. is there some concern with amazing run-up reits enjoyed they might moderate and pull back in 2015. >> sure, liz, that is a concern. if you look at fundamentals, they point to very strong year in 2015. you have to remember, reits are doing very well this year. 2013 they were overly punished because of fear of interest rate spikes that didn't materialize. in fact interest rates went down for a while and the market adjusted to that. looking at 2015 the interest rate forecast is still pretty moderate. we're expecting higher interest rates. there is some signs of inflation beginning to build. given the pullback in energy prices, coupled with the fact that the consumer now doing very well and pent-up demand on corporate front, really corporate balance sheets are very healthy and so on, you put
4:51 pm
all that together and it should be a pretty measured and balanced movement on the interest rate along with the job growth. that's why we believe commercial real estate in general and reits in particular should fare very well in 2015. liz: great to see you. let's hope so. always good to get ideas. we appreciate you being here. thank you. >> thanks for having me. david: number of issues deepened the divide with the political parties inside the beltway this year but one caused a lot of disruptions within party lines. we're talking about immigration which we'll look at coming next. liz: plus it is a economic bonanza tomorrow with more than five key data points out from sentiment to housing to durable goods. which one could rattle your portfolio? it is tomorrow's trades today, next. >> hey, everyone i'm tracy byrnes in for gerri willis. coming up at top of the show, the hottest trend in technology for your show. what's not hot, what's not and what will it cost you.
4:52 pm
that is coming up in a few minutes. don't go anywhere. [vet] two yearly physicals down.
4:53 pm
4:54 pm
martha and mildred are good to go. here's your invoice, ladies. a few stops later, and it looks like big ollie is on the mend. it might not seem that glamorous having an old pickup truck for an office... or filling your days looking down the south end of a heifer, but...i wouldn't have it any other way. look at that, i had my best month ever. and earned a shiny new office upgrade. i run on quickbooks. that's how i own it.
4:55 pm
dad,thank you mom for said this oftprotecting my future.you. thank you for being my hero and my dad. military families are uniquely thankful for many things, the legacy of usaa auto insurance could be one of them. if you're a current or former military member or their family, get an auto insurance quote and see why 92% of our members plan to stay for life. can. liz: political parties were divided this year as usual. the president's decision on immigration start ad uproar that was too hard to ignore. david: rich edson looks inside the immigration divide. >> good afternoon, david and liz. president obama announced in his
4:56 pm
state of the union address this would be a year of action, executive action of after the november midterm elections he announced unilateral overhaul of immigration enforcement allowing five million in the country a chance to stay. the president's claim that the house failed to act on the immigration bill forced him to act. >> senate pass ad bipartisan senate immigration year. i did everything a year-and-a-half to provide republicans the space to act. >> republicans charge the president's move is illegal. they will respond early in a new gop-controlled congress early next year. lawmakers only funded department of homeland security in february, giving republicans an opportunity to attach a immigration provision to that spending bill. >> this is a chance essentially to offer a competing view for what immigration reform should look like. >> that could include more money for border security and expansion of work visas especially for science, math and engineers. businesses have been lobbying for those measures and
4:57 pm
republicans supported them. even with some areas of agreement between the parties, one analyst says congress will likely wait until president obama's term has concluded to pass a comprehensive immigration bill. >> i suspect it will take two or three years and probably next administration to really deal with the immigration problem as we know it. >> while republicans in congress consider their legislative response to the president, two dozen states are suing the obama administration over this executive order, climbing it is illegal. liz, david, back to you. liz: rich edson, thank you very much. david: we've been asking if you agree with the president that the north korean sony hacking was not a act of war. spencer says, anytime another country attempts to disrupt peace of mind in another country's citizens it is an act of terror. we're bringing you number one thing to watch tomorrow. we're back with jeff saut, raymond james chief investment strategist. we have a lot to choose from. a lot of stats tomorrow. what are you looking at? >> i think three ones they will
4:58 pm
look at the most, housing numbers, durable goods and gdp how the of those the third revision on gdp will be most important. whisper number is 3.9 up to 4.2, 4.3. that would be i think a surprise liz: a surprise. you can't ignore the durable goods number, is it not, jeff, a real opportunity to say the economy looks very good? >> but those numbers and housing numbers and consumer spending numbers, they move around a lot, liz. there is a lot of noise in the numbers. this is the third revision of the gdp i think that is much more important. david: by the way, that is not taking into account, not averaging out including the first quarter, is it? that is for the one quarter, if you take that annually. if you average out the past three quarters, don't you rate a lot less than 4%? >> yeah. you come somewhere around 2.25, 2 1/2%. which is what we targeted for this year because we gave away
4:59 pm
the first quarter. but we think gdp is strengthening here. as i said earlier, i think underlying economy is stronger than the surface figures suggest. liz: what could worry you at this point, jeff? is there any number you're waiting on? is it the next jobs number, labor department number that comes out? >> no, the things that worry me, would be big policy mistake inside of the d.c. beltway. i do think that the democratic party is worried about the republican house and senate and possibility of a republican president. in 2016. so i think they are urging president obama even if it is baby steps to try to find compromise. i think you just saw that with the budget bill that got passed. david: i'm wondering if wall street doesn't prefer when there is certain amount of gridlock because at least things won't get worse? >> one of my themes the next 18 to 24 months we'll elect smarter lawmakers and smarter policies
5:00 pm
out of the d.c. beltway crowd. tracy: we're waiting jeff and we'll see. have a wonderful holiday. david: thank you very much, jeff. we'll watch very carefully the markets overnight and present you the very latest tomorrow. liz: "the willis report" is next with tracy >> hi, everyone, i'm tracy byrnes in for gerri willis. we're down to the final stretch in the holiday shopping frenzy. with a not so stellar start to the holiday season, retail remembers doing everything they can to attract last minute shoppers. can you snag a deal this late in the game? we have retail expert, eric shiver. thanks for being with us. i thought this was interesting stat. one in four shoppers held off to complete shopping season over the weekend. i think it is more. i know tons of people behind the eight ball this year. >> i know lots of people behind the eight ball and it is true. there were polls taken and

80 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on