neil: afree agreeing to sign a pledge, if he were not the republican nominee, he would support whoever is. in other words, donald trump, would support any one of his competitors who he leads right now in this race and sign a pledge to do so. that he would not bolt from this party. it is two hours away. anything can happen. it is donald trump. it's a commitment on paper but how binding if it comes to pass? we'll know in 120 minutes. to blake burman with the very latest why trump is doing this right now. >> reporter: hi, there, neil. i kind of walk you through everything how this all started. remember last month at the gop

debate, the fox debate in cleveland, trump was the only candidate who refused to swear off potential third party run. that was video. he was only one there that put up his hands. yesterday, according to reports eventually confirmed by fox, rnc was basically reaching out to campaigns to get them to sign this pledge so that trump or anybody else, but really trump in this case wouldn't threaten a potential third party run. all the polling that you see shows that would be disasterous for republicans if that were indeed the case. last night trump sent out, his campaign did, news release, calling for 2:00 press conference. it didn't mention what this press conference would be about. just that it would be the at trump tower at 2:00. by that happens at 1:00, an hour from now, trump is meeting with reince priebus, head of the rnc. at the heart of that meeting we're told is this pledge. now "politico" and "the washington post" are

reporting that trump will indeed sign that pledge, ruling out that potential third party run. we'll see if that what the 2:00 newser is about, which i mentioned didn't have a subject matter about it. i tell you this much, reached out to the trump campaign, several people last hour or so, they are not confirming any of this, at least as of this moment. this is certainly though the issue of the day. i want to show awe piece of video real quick. chris christie earlier today was on fox news. he took out the pledge and literally, there you go, production assistant comes and brings it, pulls out the pen and signs it on air. this has been pretty much the story of the day. earlier today jeb bush when asked about this said he would support jeb bush. so that kind, he would support donald trump which also goes to show you, this is a two-way street here, should trump indeed end up getting nomination. neil? neil: thank you very much. just got a pledge to sign here. this pledge just means --

>> no chocolate till new year's. neil: right. only eat a rug today la. -- arugula. >> support the nominee. neil: i joke. it is on paper, signing something. not really binding agreement. mark serrano, dagen mcdowell. dagen, really? >> everything he does is a win, right? he will sign it and have a giant, assumes he does sign it, have a giant press conference. it will be a victory for trump. he could show up in members only jacket and hush puppies everybody would talk about how cool he would look. neil: can't tell you how many times i did that. >> he turn ad joke of a hairstyle -- neil: hey, hey. >> in a talking point. i admire the cantilevered genius that is his hairdo. there was some indication he would sign on this, in south carolina as part of the primary, you have to sign an agreement i will get behind the republican nominee. neil: or you don't get on the ballot. >> seemed to suggest he would do

that. neil: mark, he is being shrewd here. others could interpret it as a sign, they should worry all the more, he is seriously is looking at this nomination. he is not just toying around wit. >> right. he said himself he wanted -- neil: did you grow a goatee while i was away? >> this is not connell mcshane level of beard. neil: delicious. continue. is that really necessary, dagen? >> i'm on notice. neil: all right. >> said he would use this for leverage. four weeks later, if you sign it today, then the rnc chairman is showing up to witness his signing effort. i would say that is leverage. neil: are you lawyer? >> no. neil: i watched a lot of legal shows. so i think i qualify. nothing binding about this. can break this all the time. >> ultimately what happens, dagen pointed out in south carolina and virginia the law is very clear. if you run for the primary and you lose, you can't later go on the ballot as third parity.

so the law -- you can challenge the law. but that would take too much. look -- neil: how would that affect you after the fact? in other words, let's say he wins south carolina, would that hurt him later on, if he bolts to the third party, that he can't get on the ballot as a third party candidate? i didn't think that mattered whether you signed an agreement or not? >> it is ultimately, this is political leverage. he used that political leveraged. neil: but he reversed himself, done a 180 from the debate. could that hurt him. >> no, he said at this time. four weeks ago, he said, not at this time. neil: are you sure you're not a lawyer. >> i am not. watch legal shows. >> he was asked in south carolina. he said he would be making a decision about signing the south carolina pledge in a short time. indication he would sign. neil: he was apprised south carolina and states where this might apply, figured and used his leverage.

so a very good move. >> is this very big question. anybody talking about democrats signing a pledge? will hillary and joe biden sign a pledge where if bernie sanders becomes nominee will they support him? >> this is about donald trump. this was to pigeon hole donald trump. donald trump doesn't like to be a loser or even appear to be a loser. i don't think that is why he would ever run as third party candidate at this point. the only thing would force him to run, if he isn't in lead among all the republicans. i don't think he would be in step, i can't get republican nomination, i will step in the middle somewhere. neil: he looks a lot more serious like a nominee than he did at the time of the debate, even then when he was ahead in the polls. i think he is weighing that, you know, i could go all the way. >> party leadership is now saying donald trump is one of us, right? he is saying, yes i'm one of you. i want the gop nomination. look, even a billionaire faces daunting challenges to run as an independent. daunting.

it is almost impossible to get on the ballot in 50 states as an independent. look, he wants republican nomination. he is making that official because he took time to get leverage out of it. the party chairman is showing up. which other candidate is showing up for? he wasn't in the studio today when chris christie signed that pledge, right? >> he certainly has more energy, donald trump does than any other candidate the way he is speaking to the american people. and it is connecting. >> that is it. there are a fervor across the country, wants to turn the establishment, both parties on its head. trump is achieving that. i think what happened, a month ago, a lot of anti-establishment voters showed up in polls. not a lot more party faithful are showing up. neil: next cnn debate, it's a moot point, right? >> exactly. something to take off the table. neil: we can't take off the table wall and broad. stocks are up appreciably, but not as much as earlier, two days running. you're welcome, america, i

return and stocks continue. enough about to pale imitation of me, connell mack shine. >> neil, have you signed pledge only i can fill in for you? neil: eatenly arugula for rest of my life. i still don't know what arugula is. connell what is going on? ii want to address china. its markets are closed today and tomorrow. first a lot of wired things in the markets. what is going on. >> a lot of weird things going on. is celebration not like in china, because they're not having any stock market celebration in china. cue confetti. we're trying to calm everybody down. they're shape the chinese are not trading. they're not trading today and not trading tomorrow. that seemed to calm markets down neil: just ignore that. >> and all that kind of thing. to look into the rally, let's see, 143 points to the upside.

we'll take you through a few of the leaders on dow board. intel is having a good day. cisco, visa. ibm. a lot of green on the screen today. very calm 142 points to the upside. all of the sectors in the s&p 500 are doing well. so we are calling this the two-day cavuto rally at this point. let's hope it sticks through the close. neil: i'm wondering how much this has to do besides me, but china not trading? sometimes better part of valor we're so grateful when those guys aren't a factor. today, tomorrow, they won't be trading. of course next week they will be. they're always a catalyst for something. >> this new world. last couple weeks where we wait for the chinese market to see what it is going to do. it seems to lead our market. it has become the norm here the last couple weeks. other thing is the jobs report coming in tomorrow. the bets are what will the jobs report look like. how does that affect the federal reserve. we'll get through a long weekend and by tuesday morning thinking

about china. neil: you're dealing with tense and frantic environment if we look what is going on the floor there. you can cut the craziness with a knife. [crickets sound] >> working through. it. >> market pulling back a little bit as connell talked. i think people were falling asleep. neil: he has that effect on people. we love him regardless. meantime, a lot of folks not loving chinese days. here is not only why but because of markets it is creating but bellicose, two days of military parades by the way but five naval vessels show up off the coast of alaska as the president is really just a few miles away touring some glaciers. peter brookes following all of this. he doesn't like it. not one bit. peter brookes, what is going on? >> well, i think you're seeing china's new assertiveness. china is telling the world that we have arrived.

not only with this soviet-style parade they had, marking the end of the war in the pacific, world war ii in the pacific but also the power projection forces that we're seeing up off alaska also borders the arctic and potential energy resources there. also what we're seeing in the south china sea where 40% of the global, world's global commerce goes through. they're building islands. they're claiming these islands as solve return chinese territory. so this is something we're all going to have to get used to, whether talking about economics you were talking about, neil, or political or military power of the new china. neil: you know what is weird about military response to all of this, and maybe that has to be the politically correct way to respond, not making a big deal of it. five vessels off the coast of alaska. we're monitoring it. we don't expect anything weird or untoward. i'm paraphrasing, much ado, we're watching, about nothing. what do you make of that? >> wealth relationship has the

potential to get much more tense on the security side. the chinese off of alaska may be reflecting the fact that we have ships near china. that we have ships near what they're calling their islands in the south china sea. nobody wants to see this to become enemy relationship. we're certainly rivals with china on so many levels and certainly competitors. other issue, president of china, president xi will be in washington and the united states at the end of this month. he will also visit the white house and go to new york and u.n. general assembly. people want to be able to manage this relationship. but this is a country that is, number two economy in the world. has world's second largest defense budget. and certainly one of the most powerful politically. so this is a rivalry that the united states will have to manage and deal with. neil: fighter brooks, thank you. good talking to you. >> thank you. neil: you probably heard probably most earth shattering news of the day.

tom brady will be playing in the opening game for the new england patriots. what is the big deal? ultimate patriots fan is with us. joe ligotti is with us, and he is delighted. i mention boston red sox are dead last in the american league east! more after this.

neil: all right. who says crime doesn't pay? new england, touche. tom brady, will play in the opening game. four-game suspension wiped out by a judge who said it was a little bit too draconian on the part of the nfl administering. this no good cheating quarterback criminal will fight another day, maybe 16 games.

one joe ligotti is happy, ultimate new england phone. he joins us over the phone. joseph, congratulations, i guess. what do you make of this? >> neil, waiting to do for your -- today everybody wants to be bostonian, right? neil: no they don't. no they don't. what do you make of this? the judge effectively saying the nfl went too far, right? >> i totally agree. as i said on your program three months ago, that this report was not like a police report. it didn't have witnesses and dna and tom brady's sweat on the ball, this and that. it was generality. neil: it was a lot of deflated balls, clearly, clearly deflated if not personally but at his behest by said quarterback tom brady, no doubt a liar. your reaction? >> neil, i don't know if another man on national tv should talk about deflated balls with another man, but i feel very,

very comfortable with you, neil. neil: i digress. you're quite right. there are a lot of non-new england fans saying hey, this guy got away with something. but you raised that, among many points last time, a number of good ones which was, do we have time for this sort of nonsense? in an age where there are quarter packs and -- quarterbacks and football players beating up their girlfriends or worse, is this something the nfl should get bogged down in? what do you make of this? >> i totally agree, neil. as i have been trumpeting this, the nfl no question about it, leadership has to do something from the top down and you know, change all of this stuff. it would be ludicrous for tom brady sit four games for a couple of pounds in footballs in a game that was 45-17. allow a pittsburgh running back, forget his name, one game for violating drug policy.

neil: i know in your heart of hearts you're a new england fan. no one speaks better for new england teams, but that seems to work like a charm for the red sox. you must know and sense, much of the civilized world does that the new england patriots cheat? >> i wouldn't say we're cheating, neil. here is the way i would put it. i would say that bill belichick and tom brady are the greatest coach and quarterback tandem ever to play this game. neil: guess what, joe. we got news as we're speaking, maybe nfl heard what you said, they're appeals, they're appealing this decision. >> i saw that coming. neil: what do you make of that? >> i may -- roger goodell spent nine or $10 million to defend this case. he has, you know, x-amount of owners that really want brady's head and belichick's head on platter. no question they would appeal this thing. but the main thing is, we're going to get to play football in new england.

the man won super bowl. he will get to play in the first game which they will pass out the rings and raise that banner. and, to be honest with you, neil, i think their policy has to change. that is why before they suspended brady, two days before goodell had to change the rule how they handle footballs in, regulation footballs during the game and how refs did it because there was no rule in place. that i was trying to say, belichick is so smart, he is way smarter than the front office. he doesn't cheat, neil. what he does is he outthinks -- neil: you're right. good criminals do. good criminals do. >> oh, my god, neil. neil: do you have your post-season tickets for the red sox by the way? >> i doesn't but i'll tell you what i will be doing tonight. i will be watching patriots and exonerated and vindicated tom brady kicking the pants off the giants.

neil: no one will be playing. their kids will be playing. >> i would like tom go in for one snap to see the fans and how much -- neil: no doubt, with deflated ball, to rub it in their face! joe -- >> take it easy. neil: i will be talking with you later on fox news. >> i heard that. neil: we love you. you're new england biases notwithstanding. all right. well, from one crime to another. the iran deal. what do they have in common with tom brady? more than you know. the ♪ [ male announcer ] we know they're out there.

you can't always see them. but it's our job to find them. the answers. the solutions. the innovations. all waiting to help us build something better. something more amazing. a safer, cleaner, brighter future. at boeing, that's what building something better is all about. ♪ neil: all right. you heard of this iran deal looks like it's a deal. that the president secured just enough votes, the 34th yesterday with senator barbara mikulski to override potential veto. even though the house and senate overwhelmingly will likely reject the agreement we have with iran, it won't matter because it is not by 2/3

majority you need to override that veto. james woolsey is here of course, our ambassador, former cia director, so many other impressive titles here. james woolsey, you've been saying it is the whole process that stinks and the vote count, you would have preferred a 2/3 vote to approve it? >> right. i'm very much, in league with andy mccarthy on this, who has done scholarly excellent legal work. this should have been a treaty. obviously should have been a treaty. it is of such fundamental importance. no one historically would have made something like this an executive agreement. and as a treaty, it would require 2/3 of the senate to approve it. so the president -- neil: why didn't the senate leadership, house leadership push for that? >> i have no idea. i think they made a big mistake not pushing for it then. no reason they can't push for it now except it is embarrassing to them. politically embarrassing to them. substantively as far as law is

concerned, the president submitted what the statutes require him to submit yet, because he hasn't submitted all annexes, the reason they're being hidden from the states. neil: ambassador i talked to the senator from pennsylvania, democrat got of undecided list and decided to support this. he worked on the understanding, i put that in quotes, if iran really violates this, we have military option. in other words, by that i assume we could bring in troops to sort of force the issue. that was news to me. apparently it was news to ted cruz. i want us you to listen to this exchange with ted cruz. >> good to join you. neil: do you know of this military option on table if iran violates this? >> sadly, no. and every observe knows this president is not willing to use force military or otherwise to prevent iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. the materials of this deal make that abundantly clear, because

on the face of the deal it accelerates iran acquiring nuclear weapons. neil: is he right? >> there are few longer odds in washington that president obama might use force on something like this. there is just not a chance in the dickens he is going to do that. neil: because iranians would never sign it. >> well, even if he had the authority, and i think he probably does, he is not going to do it. the frankfurter newspaper, said when there was red line and if syrians cross it and use chemical weapons then i'm going to be really tough. neil: right. >> the frankfurter said the red line became a pink line. he would not even, when he made a declaration like that, move against the syrians and their use of chemical weapons against the poor syrian people. i don't think there is any chance -- neil: you know what is troubling, ambassador, and i take senator casey -- kerry, i

took it at his word, he is honorable guy. you know him. that other democrats are on the fence who came part of that 34 were similarly hoodwinked? >> anyone who thinks that president obama would use force to enforce this agreement has been misled. neil: but what does that mean now going forward? this deal goes through but it is a deal that goes through despite hefty majorities in the senate and house ring it? >> i don't think it goes through because the president hasn't submitted it yet because he can't, because the substance is being hidden. apparently from him and certainly from the congress and american people and in not transmitting terms. i've negotiated four arms control agreements. if i came back from any of my negotiations and told the congress or senate, by the way, i'm not going to be able to share all of this with you because the russians don't want it shared with you. neil: just trust me. >> what? i mean it's, it's really amazing. neil: ambassador woolsey, thank you very, very much. we appreciate it.

we are learning as the ambassador and i were speaking donald trump is set to confirm 90 minutes from now he will stay with the republican party. he will not bolt and become a third party candidate if he shoed louis the nomination or opt out of the republican primary process all together. some are interpreting that as a sign he is growingly confident he will get the nomination. others saying he is using some smart calculus here in states like south carolina it is crucial, if you're off the ballot there if you don't do something like this, after this. is it our insightful strategies that make edward jones

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neil: all right. an hour 1/2 away from donald trump saying all right, all right, i will sign the stupid pledge. he will go ahead -- he didn't say it like that.

but a pledge to say he won't bolt from the republican party. who is urging him on to do this? who are some of the powers than behind the power? who knows better than our charlie gasparino, the ultimate power behind the power. no better business journalist on the planet. he would know. what are you hearing? >> steve wynn. neil: the casino guy. >> i -- neil: you didn't know he was in mall cop 1 and 2. >> saw mall cap 2. it was very food. neil: does know there is sequel? >> what i heard from gop operatives in the room with both men. these are people that are close, in recent weeks, one person that is, donald trump has leaned on for advice and counsel described to me, steve wynn. a lot of advice and counsel, calling him up asking, what do you think of this, what do you think i did here and what do you

think i did there? one thing i heard, heard it through the same operatives, steve wynn was one prodded him not to do a third party run. neil: why would steve wynn care? >> steve wynn wants to defeat democrats. steve wynn all over the place politically and supported democrats in the past. neil: that is city that you have to be. >> from purely business standpoint. he has been very critical of president obama and i think he is very critical of the left ward movement of democratic party. i think it would be fair to say he would be republican supporter. neil: you fear a third party move by trump would destroy -- >> would kill them. and he, from what i understand he prodded him not to do that he has been in trump's ear in last couple weeks in major, major way. getting this from gop operatives who -- neil: what does that mean in his ear? telling him what? >> advice and counsel the. neil: like carl icon? >> i don't know in carl gives donald advice.

neil: carl is open to being treasury secretary. >> of course. so am i. but i think, wynn is a little more intimate in terms of, from what i understand, in terms of -- neil: they have had tempestuous relationship. >> hugely tempestuous. >> i will report on foxbusiness.com. i will put this in foxbusiness.com, quote some of the names they called each other over the years. we're not talking about 25 years ago. talking about late '90s. when they were battling it out for casinos in atlantic city. i mean this is -- and other properties. they battled it out. neil: does wynn see trump having serious shot at the white house? >> i think he does. we should point out we called both mens press officials. neil: right. >> neither have denied it. they said, listen they have been friends for a long time. wynn's spokesman says he gives advice and counsel to a lot of people including donald but what i understand donald trump has been leaning on him this loyalty pledge, if and when he takes it,

do you think he will take it without strings attached? i have no idea. it is going to come out within the next hour we'll hear, genesis of that, i understand is wynn. neil: will he commit to that signing a pledge on paper? it's a piece of paper? >> i have no idea. donald is crafty guy. he will do what is best for him. so if, you know, putting it in invisible ink or ink that erases, that disappears, disappearing ink -- neil: he will do it. he is going to do it. >> we'll see. neil: thank you, buddy, very, very much. charlie gasparino. speaking of the pledge we just heard rick perry signed it as well. i think chris christie on fox news this morning did the same thing. the killer was christie, he was just signing a laundry, little laundry checklist. it wasn't, no. anyway a number of republicans are. this commitment that they won't bolt from the party. it is carrying some weight. carries significant weight and

takes the issue of the table as debate feature for cnn if trump is already on board and promises he will stay on board. although it is just a piece of paper. all right. iran right now looks like it's a done deal, right? the president secured 34 votes he needs to prevent republicans from piling up and overriding a veto. but there is more to it than that. this is proof, at least according to writer that says this president is anything but a lame duck. well you know, when i look at what he achieved and what he has done and what he managed to push through, republicans will argue illegally with a lot of executive edicts, he is ruling the sort of debate here, isn't he? >> yeah. i think, you know, an animal is most dangerous when he wounded. the president is kind of backed into corner now with heavy majority, republican majorities in congress. he feels sort of going it alone

is only way to sort of cement his legacy to get something done. we're seeing with the iran deal and epa regulations and immigration and a lot of other major policy areas. he realize he can't rely on congress for any of his policy priorities. he will do it himself. if court battle ensues he will do it. neil: he won a couple key court battles when the supreme court effectively nullified republicans on the idea on the health care law, virtually securing it now for, well, despite what republicans hope will be not the case, for permanent law status. then, winning on the gay ruling. those two developments, i think changed the context of this presidency in its second term, right? >> yeah. they were certainly, the president is going to, you know, he feels that it is sort of cemented his legacy. you about he can't really point to anything that he has been able to do in his second term i

don't think unilaterally. obviously he had major accomplishments. in the first term we saw obamacare pass through congress, dodd-frank. there were things he could point to tangentally, duly enacted laws. now law of the land. obviously supreme court cementing obamacare was a dig deal. you haven't seen him go the legislative route. neil: regardless whether done deal, epa, new clean air requirements and cuttings down on ozone requirements, even renaming a mountain in alaska. >> yeah. neil: all by executive edict. can he do this? or is it just a moot point, he is doing it? >> there are certainly case to be made republicans have not stood up to him to the extent they could have. the corker bill could end up solidifying this iran deal with just 34 votes in the senate, was probably in retrospect a major misstep. the administration was saying all along this was not treaty

and shouldn't be treated as a treaty. he have majorities in the senate needed to enact that. when you look a lot of provisions that iran is now saying, restrictions on conventional weaponry are being lifted and so on, seems clearer every day this should have gone through the normal treaty process. whether you see similar legal challenges going forward. neil: lachlan, always good chatting. appreciate it. >> you bet. neil: we pare ad lot of gains but still up. a lot of folks on lot of shows focus on tick for tick movement on dow last couple weeks i understand that regular viewers of this show i always remind people a market in moment is a snapshot. once snapshot is done. i keep a chart in my office aways from from desk. shows how the dow performed over the last century. that chart goes up, when you get close to the chart you see huge guy races, huge.

you can get fixated gyrations on many networks to as we should in the moment. always remember it is the moment. the and the trend is your friend. the guy who echoes that and has made a lot of money expounding on that, after this.

neil: i wonder how some of these big fund are looking at now with the dow up 96 points on top of yesterday's gain. the dow seems to come back in fit and starts. gerri willis on the second biggest pension fund seems to being in the market a liability. what is up with that? >> calsters. the second biggest hedge fund. represent california teachers retired and working, what they will do pull a bunch of money out of the u.s. stock market. neil: after all this craziness, right? >> they're trying to reduce their risk.

you can't really invest if you don't want any risk that is my view. this is what they do. give a bunch of money from hedge fund operators. how have they done? i don't know, last year they made less than 5%. neil: you pay them exorbitant fees for privilege. >> two and 20, right? 2% of assets, 20% of process. calpers pulled out of them. there is another public pension fund they pulled out of them. we're not doing it anymore. their performance of hedge fund managers subpar. that is the story. if you're joe blow investing in s&p 500 index you dead better than hedge fund managers. neil: they get nervous, right? just like they get nervous now they're missing something because they got out, right? what is your advice for people? >> cure to that is not hiring bunch of super expensive managers in nye view. the cure for that you're properly allocated. you will lose money sometimes. that is the way investing world works. you can't escape from risk.

neil: i have proposal, gerri, with the world watching, i think you're on board. all of those people nervous in the market, give us your money. we'll get back to you in what, 20, 30 years. >> we'll be back. neil: we'll be phoning you from bermuda. thank you very much. another guy with calm, rational approach to this is mark madsen. every time we see a crash or jolt look at headlines, end of the world. if you have a lead suit put it on. better not make it fireproof. you know the score. says mark, everyone calm down. but they don't calm down, mark, do they? >> no, neil, they don't. it is well-documented when markets go down investors panic. would be like the short-term turbulence and being in airplane, feel a little turbulence and panic and jump out of the plane. absolutely wrong thing to do. investing is a long-term function, 20 to 30 years, long-term, over last five years,

equities in the 110 were up 15%. over last 30 years up almost 11%. don't be scared out of small-term jobs because -- neil: should be cautious. some who watch these shays and focus on tick for tick moves on the dow, day traders who make money on momentum and quick shifts trade accordingly. that is fine if that's your bailiwick. for most that is a -- most folks that is losing proposition. for most folks pegging stock to average collapsing in a moment, it is own a moment right? what do you till folks? >> tell folks their instincts and emotions are their own worst enemies. everybody goes away from fear. when markets go down, you will feel the fear. courage is doing right thing even though you feel fear. the right thing to sell fixed income in portfolio and buy equities while they're down. investors should think opportunity, opportunity, opportunity. when they go way up, take off a little bit and buy fixed income.

it is completely counterintuitive. like saying no to the cheesecake when it pass the table. their instincts and emotions want to make you do wrong thing, you as if having the cheesecake is problem? mark, i want to stress, maybe you can help me out with this. there is a different sort of strategy depending on your time frame, right? if you need money right away, year, two years away, maybe stocks are not your best bet if you want to hang on to some cash. where do you put it is okay five years out, five years or more, 10 years or what? >> short term every investor has to look at their time horizon. short-term investors need to be in high quality, short-term fixed income. whatever they do, don't start cheating out on yield curve. you will have a lot of volatility when interest rates go up. don't buy junk to get extra 50 basis points. whatever you do, stay away from commodities and gold. that will be the kiss of death. highly volatile, low returns. you don't want that. neil: be a contrarian in general. world is going one way.

doesn't kill you to at least look the other way. thank you very much, my friend. mark matson. matson money ceo. done very well with the strategy. told you about tom brady suspension overturned, four-game suspension overturned. i don't know if he will play in the exhibition game with the giants. he will very opening game is it monday? no that is exhibition, right? when does the regular season opening game, susana? you have no idea. thursday, okay. so dismissive with me. i will ask susana to the, remember, ralph when i had to pick on ralph and how condescending he was to me? i guess i have to add young susana to the list. that's what i deal with. anyway, we heard from a big boston, new england fan who is delighted at this reversal of a travesty of justice. i want you now to hear from a former player who disagrees with joe ligotti and by extension

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and start gathering the information you need to help you keep rolling with confidence. go long™. ♪ neil: all right. i want to show you what's going on in control room right now. these two kids who are producers of this broadcast, ralph, like the boss of this operation, he is like 12 years old. woman to the right, that's susana. she was the one dare questioning me after the whole ralph dust-up as i left, she, i told you. i didn't say they're playing. i didn't say the patriots are playing with brady tonight. i didn't say -- i don't know what she was saying. i was talking to you, when she was talking to me. i found him and her are annoying. both will be removed from said control room. guys, wave to them. bye-bye. there they go.

you can go now, suzanne. you can leave. we'll have more on them and their spiraling careers in just a second. now to tom brady, whose career is no longer spiraling, not looking at four-game suspension. former nfl player says the suspension shouldn't have been overturned. i talk to a number of new england patriots who said it was travesty. you say no, no. so you don't like this? what do you think? >> no. i actually, i actually don't mind the fact that it was suspended. i mean that it was vacated. remember last time i was on your show i said that tom brady probably, most likely did something wrong and he covered it up as well, but the thing is, the commissioner did not have the precedent, nor the power to necessarily suspend him the way he did. neil: you're sounding a lot like ralph and suzanna here and not, changing what you just told me before, last time you were here. >> no.

neil: you know you are. >> play back the tape. neil: i wish you were here with me out because i would kick you out. he is remote. >> i am, that i am in favor of tom brady, in terms of herm and his suspension. however, do i think he did something wrong? yes, he destroyed his phone. he covered up evidence. he did all of these things. that doesn't make all those things not true. it just means that you just can't punish somebody ex post facto. that you have to actually have a plan in place to suspend people. same thing that -- neil: they used all of that stuff which was good enough for the nflpa, you're out of here. you're looking trying to have it both ways. are you scared of tom brady? >> but the difference -- why would i be scared of tom brady? look at what the judge said. the judge did not say that he was innocent. the judge actually said that there were three reasons why tom brady was not, why he vacated

the decision and that was one, because tom brady didn't know that he was going to get -- neil: counting down. you're not -- bottom line, you're happy but you're not happy? >> no. i'm happy in terms of the players, from the players perspective because players have been suspended numerous times without precedent. but in terms of for the good of the game and for the patriots just -- neil: for god's sake. all right, george. i love you dearly. admire you greatly you but don't sound any different than my young producers who constantly challenge me for no reason. very lucky i'm not there with you now. we'll have more after this.

neil that'll all right. my producer, ralph, wanted me to remind you there's a lot of other stuff going on like this trump thing in an hour where he's going to sign in this pledge saying he won't bolt. hello, i know.

let's go to the control room. yeah, forget donald trump, we've seen him once or twice on tv. [laughter] this is a very pet trifid control room. i can't make that, is that melinda or susana? so we got rid of sue. that's good. melinda, i hate to break it to you, but you're kind of on borrowed time yourself -- [laughter] so a lot depends on whether you listen to me and not that guy next to you. [laughter] all right. we're following that news and this whole trump thing. about 58, 59 minutes away, that is trump tower time, from agreeing to sign a piece of paper that says i won't bolt from the grand old party even if i am not its grand old nominee, even if someone else is. and i'm thinking to myself what if it's rand paul who's ripped him a new one, or what if it's rick perry who has called him some nasty names as their tit for tat goes? he's going to support any one of

those guys or carly fiorina? just thinking, you know, you sign a piece of paper, doesn't mean it's law, does it? a third party run from trump could have destroyed from republicans, so republicans better be hoping that he sticks to that. why is he doing this, vince? i can't see him necessarily sticking to it. he has some chilly relations with some of these guys. >> right, yeah. i imagine at best for republicans n some cases his support will be muted. you just won't hear from donald trump if certain people become the nominee. i kind of find it hard to believe you won't hear from donald trump. it's helping him, being loud throughout this campaign. reince priebus is either about to get a piece of paper signed by the donald, or he's going to be embarrassed and walk out of trump tower with nothing. i mean, if he does sign it, he should sign it with 16 pens and then send them all out to the other candidates as, like,

souvenirs. neil: you know, it's not a legally-binding document. obviously, people sign pledges all the time, the no new taxes pledge and all of that, george bush sr. had agreed to that, and he famously had to reverse that. so when a politician makes a commitment -- and that's what donald trump is now -- does that mean it's a binding agreement? do you see him disavowing this? >> he could come out a month from now saying, yeah, i talked to my lawyers, and it doesn't mean anything. who knows? the republicans need this. i think trump thinks he need this specifically because the early states you do need to pledge that you will support the nominee, or at least put ink to paper, because he wants to get on the ballot in states like south carolina. he needs to say he'll going to support the eventual nominee in order to appear on the ballot which suggests donald trump is serious enough to stay in -- neil: you read my mind. that's the immediate thing i

read into this, he must be making the calculation, hey, i've got a good shot at this thing, and i don't want to upset it. >> yeah. it's so funny, though, to think that donald trump has to be put in a position where he's asked to say whether or not he would run a third party bid. he's been the front runner for a while now. the only time you ever talk about third parties is for people who are behind, so the real question is will these republicans sport donald trump -- support donald trump if he becomes the nominee? neil: right, very, very good. rick perry has signed on to this pledge himself. in fact, republican fundraiser andrea mcwilliams says she was a big backer of senator perry -- or governor perry and now has moved on to, i guess, mike huckabee, right? >> yes, sir. neil: why? >> you know, i think perry has been plagued by this problem, and i know we've talked about it before. the reason that he's not going to make it to south carolina is

because he's the only candidate that has an indictment hanging over him. when you have so many good choices in the be field and you have to combat the fact that you have an indictment that i think will eventually be resolved, there's just no way to recover from that, and i think that's why you won't see him make it to south carolina. neil: all right. this is staffing issues which were interpreted as unconstitutional. he has argued, and other legal pundits on the right and the left have said was just a sham of an indictment. but an indictment is an indictment. >> the same thing -- neil: i'm sorry, finish that. >> the same thing with tom delay -- neil: you're exactly right. but, you know, now we have this conundrum for rick perry where he goes ahead, signs the pledge, and donald trump's going to get a lot more attention signing. does that pledge mean anything to you? >> no, it really doesn't. but i think the reason you're going to see donald trump sign the pledge today is, neil, what you've talked about so much in

the past, and that's this whole ross perot phenomena from 23 years ago. in july of 1992 ross perot was leading bush and clinton, and by the next month he dropped out. and the reason he dropped out is because no third party candidate can win in american politics. trump sees that, that's why he's going to sign pledge. and i have to say i guess i shouldn't be surprised that all of a sudden casinos are interjected into the presidential campaign if trump's involved. there's been this longstanding war between steve wynn and sheldon edelson who is on the republican jewish federation board, and as you know they've courted a lot of the presidential candidates. neil: that's right. >> so it's so fascinating to me that potentially to come back to a showdown between steve wynn and sheldon edelson since you've uncovered now that wynn is advising trump. neil: yeah. there must be something to that and the fact that trump is courting more business titans.

we've already talked about carl icahn. >> sure. neil: i think it's safe to say he's pretty serious about this. >> well, what's so fascinating to me about donald trump is he has grabbed the third rail in politics so many times and survived. i think he surprised himself, quite frankly. neil: yeah. >> and i think the magic, i think the magic about donald trump is that he believes in american exceptionalism and that voters are so tired of listening to obama apologize about american exceptionalism for all of these years that that is why voters are embracing him in the way that they are. neil: yeah. it is unfiltered, but it is unfiltered enthusiasm. thank you very, very much, i appreciate it. all right, let's take a look at what's gown on on the corner -- going on on the corner of wall and broad right now. the dow up and now under 30 points up. with all the crazy market volatility we have seen of late, there are a lot of people who have been pulling back their 401(k) commitments, their

pension fund commitments. but when it comes to young people at least in the latest week, they were opening up accounts. they were committing money. young peep were doing this -- young people were doing this. it's not a fast and sure, reliable science, but it is a remarkable development. why are young people, especially at such a volatile juncture, looking at stocks? so we've gathered some millennials. why, why they think this is happening. i'm looking at this, katherine, i can't figure it out. what's going on? >> well, what else are we supposed to do, invest in bonds with interest rates near zero? rely on social security with the way things are? neil: see, i was just thinking you were going to buy beer. >> oh, yeah, that too. i have no money left over. i actually set up my 401(k) this week because i'm a little younger, so i have more time to make more risky investments, but i definitely am spooked by the

market and concerned by it. but i'm still young, and i'm going to put money many other places too, but i don't know what else i'm supposed to do given our current environment -- neil: no, it's a very important point. it does fly in the face of conventional wisdom that when the markets get rocky, people beat a line out of stocks. >> i think you're seeing -- yeah, exactly. i think you're seeing an increase in 401(k) investment simply because of autoenroll features which is befuddling considering unemployment for 18-29-year-olds is hovering around 15.2%. so the fact that these people have jobbed and are able to -- jobs and are able to open these plans up and start actually investing with any sort of discretion their income they have in this economy is a little surprising. neil: um, do you think it's something bigger, michael? explain. >> yeah. well, you just said it's unconventional, and you're right, but a lot of the things millennials do are unconventional as we've talked about before.

this is a generation, like you said, that is a little bit low on cash. when the market is down, that's sort of like a sale. this is a good time for them to get involved, and they're doing it from apps to various other different channels. they're using everything they know to invest a little bit more in their future. neil: you know, it actually could be timed almost to the day we hit the 10% correction, katherine, which would indicate that millennials are more into market timing than we know. what do you make of that? >> well, the millennials that are investing are investing in stocks. of course, only about 26% of millennials are investing at all, but that's because of things like student loans and, like caleb mentioned, unemployment. but what is surprising is the fact that they are choosing to invest in stocks, but we really don't have a choice. and a lot of millennials aren't going with investors. a huge percentage are kind of trying it out, maybe trying some of these automated rowo investors, so they're not going the -- robo investors, so they're not going the

traditional route. neil: caleb, is the trust in the market there, or by putting it in indices or index funds it's a safer, less sort of manipulated route? >> well, i think people are looking for security, especially young people. we've grown up in our formidable investing years seeing stock market crashes, massive economic downfall in 2009. so we're definitely looking for ways to rebuild trust. and i don't know if it's necessarily there yet. you have 93% of young millennials looking at a market and saying that there's two reasons why we're not investing. it's because we think that it's too volatile. we also lack the financial literacy to understand what is a proper investment, what maybe would be a proper amount of risk as compared to being a little more conservative with building your portfolio. so i think it can go both ways, but i think right now millennials are definitely looking for some more stability in their lives, and they're

seeming to turn into building portfolios. neil: yeah. >> yeah, i think we see a riff in the generation too. i think we see the group of people that maybe are a little more financially literate and who understand the stock market, they're doubling down. they're using apps like robin hood to invest more when the other group that maybe doesn't understand the market as much, they're using it as an excuse to say, hey, listen, this proves my point. neil: yeah. well, they're just smoking pot -- [laughter] >> just beer. neil: guys, thank you very much. as they were speaking, we're getting this bulletin. remember that kentucky clerk who refused several times to issue licenses to gays hoping to marry? well, a judge has ordered her to go to jail if she refuses to issue marriage licenses, and she did. she did so again, and the judge said, you know what? you're going to jail. we'll have more after this. (vo) me? i don't just wait for a moment.

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neil: all right. something is going on here. a number of top wall street titans have been on the wires exresting in various venues -- expressing in various venues skepticism about this market. i'm not saying that is the catalyst for coming off our highs, but many of them are down, technology stocks, that average just turning negative right now which could be a reflection that technology -- which really brought this market back -- is still going to be looking at hiccups along the way. another worry for the chamber of commerce, its chief economist says if american businesses are facing these hurdles, a lot of it goes back to the government. i don't know what's doing it, but those hurdles are there. that skepticism is there, martin, and what do they tell you? what are these guys telling you? >> well, i think they're uncertain as to the environment. this has been the slowest

economic expansion in the postwar era. it's only grown at 2.1%. we've never developed any momentum. cbo came out with a report that said if we continue to grow as expected, we'll never reach our prior potential, we'll never get back to where we're supposed to be, and businesses are concerned about that. they're concerned about the excessive regulation, they're concerned about large government programs like the health care law and the financial services bills that really haven't fixed anything that they were supposed to. and so they're sitting there kind of wondering what's next? this administration decides that when they can't get the congress to go along with them on these different approaches, they'll just go along by themselves, and that creates an uncertainty, and it creates a very tepid economy that doesn't allow them much in the way of opportunities. neil: you know, there's always been i guess i could best describe it as a bit of a chill between yourself over at the chamber of commerce and those at the white house whose policies

you've not exactly warmly endorsed. and it always struck me as odd when there was that -- not you specifically -- that you're across the street from one another. the u.s. chamber of commerce, the white house are literally across the street from one another. but it mighting as well have been, you know, a hundred miles. was the friction immediate? was the disagreement on policies immediate? did they stop calling you, you them? what? >> well, neither group has stopped calling the other group. we still talk with the administration on various issues, and there's a few issues where we do agree. but on the, for the most part, you know, it started out with an economy that was in a recession, a very steep recession. we agreed with them on some of the policies early on as to how to get out of it, not exactly the way they imelemented the policies, but we -- implemented the policies, but we agreed with the policies. but then things started to go kind of south. so we had the financial services bill, we had the health care bill, we've had all this

plethora of egglation that have come out -- regulation that have come out, and every time we try to communicate with them on these issues, we find there's kind of a deaf ear. we're more than happy to work with the white house on issues to get this economy going, but we really don't see the white house focusing on some of the issues that are important; the energy issues that we thought would have been a jump-start for this economy, pretty much a deaf ear. we looked at what we could do on immigration reform. we looked at what we could do on tax reform -- neil: well, you've got 17 months. i don't see magic just starting here. >> oh, i don't either, and that's why most projections are that the economy will continue to muddle along over the next year or so. we don't see a recession, but we certainly don't see much in the way of pick-up in part because nothing's changed. neil: marty, thank you very much. thanks for taking the time. >> my pleasure. neil: we've been looking at these markets, the dow is up about 50 points, but the nasdaq has entered negative territory. that's getting some attention here, the skittishness out there, and this despite the fact chinese markets are closed today

and tomorrow. do you know what they're doing in china? they're honoring the 70th anniversary of the end of world war ii and victory over japan. that's one thing. but the way they're doing it is quite another. it's a show of force. they've got two million standing soldiers, two million. that is more than russia, the united states and the old european powers combined. and they just bragged about how they've cut that back by 300,000 soldiers. they'll still have two million. they do this at the same time they've got five chinese naval vessels circling around off the port of alaska. alaska. so what's going on here? former cia korea director bruce chinker. this comes, bruce, right after all this small island rebuilding they were doing. they take a small island in the south china sea, they'd rebuild it, reconfigure it, make it like

a military stop, move on, do the other side. we don't have a response, what are they up to? >> president xi jinping's behavior at the military parade certainly a change from his predecessor. xi was strutting across the stage practically running down the line of dignitaries doing high-fives, you know? he had very over the top -- neil: they're not american dignitaries, they're putin and some other nefarious characters which makes me wonder, what are they up to? >> right. china's trying to intimidate the neighbors. they've been building these islands, they're trying to push their in not sovereignty, at least their influence far from their shores. they've built the legitimacy of the communist party on income equality, economic growth and then nationalism.

well, it's a stable tricycle. but the income equality wheel fell off a long time ago, so then you have a bicycle which is stable as long as it's moving forward, and now that economic growth is coming into question, it's an unstable unicycle where they have to rely even more on nationalism. neil: do you think they upped the ante there, that is the president, to show or get people's mind off the craziness this their markets? in other words -- in their markets? in other words, yeah, but focus on this instead because this is shiny, and this is a much brighter bulb than what's going on in our markets? >> yes and no. the parade and the style, the over-the-top, anti-japanese focus was long planned. so it's going to be diverting attention from its own behavior in the east and south china seas, trying to deflect blame on japan, claiming there's a resurgence of 1930s militarism. the display of the weapons including carrier killer weapons

and a guam killer weapon, missile, it's really to intimidate the neighbors. and then now with the economic growth slowing and the danger in their economy, it also serves that purpose of maintaining legitimacy by deflecting attention outward and also showing just how strong china is at least militarily. neil: crazy stuff, bruce. thank you very much. i appreciate it. >> thank you. neil: all right. i want to go to the trump tower here in new york city, actually just a few blocks away from us here. donald trump is expected to make an announcement, actually make an announcement and sign a piece of paper, a pledge that he'll never bolt from the republican party if he doesn't become the nominee. he will stay a republican and presumably support the republican nominee. this on the heels of a poll out just a few minutes ago that shows his lead growing among all presidential contenders. nationally, he secures 30% of that vote, so that has grown. ben carson is in second place. i don't even know if the good doctor has signed such a pledge.

maybe he's never been asked or doesn't have to. but donald trump, under heavy pressure from the republican higher-ups, has to. and today he is. why is that? after this.

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neil: from marble trump tower, empty podium. it is not empty podium. the guy is doing sound checks. has a big crowd. this is the at trum tower, we're expecting donald trump to announce to the world something he couldn't commit to the fox news republican presidential debate. that is, he is willing ready, indeed eager to sign a pledge that he will not bolt from the republican party. a lot of people say it is a piece of paper. what does it mean? reince priebus is there, republican national committee chairman. many say he has been egging him on. donald trump gets something from this, assures if he wins he is

not taken off any state ballot and if he is republican nominee and. first with blake burman what we can expect ahead of that. >> reporter: neil, you've been talking about the pledge. i have given it a look last few minutes. we have the exact texas you mention. there is really no legal binding authority to any of this. reince priebus's name on it. read it exactly with it says. put it up on the screen. according to the pledge it says quote, i, then you write in your name, affirm if i do not win the 2016 republican nomination for president of the united states i will endorse the 2016 republican presidential nominee, regardless of who it is. i further pledge that i will not seek to run as an independent or write-in candidate, nor will i seek or accept the nomination for president of any other party. so there you go. that is the one-page pledge right there.

as for those who actually either signed on to it or have said they are going to, we have got it pegged at seven of the 17 right now. this is most likely in flux. those seven being chris christie, rick perry, mike huckabee, ted cruz, dr. ben carson, carly fiorina, and scott walker. the big question as you mentioned, will donald trump end up putting his name to that list. either way, you'll remember what happened all the way back in august, at the fox news debate when everybody kept their hand down, donald trump kept his hand up. so it is expected that everybody else will at some point either sign on to this or say they will take up this pledge. as you see there, donald trump the only one at that point to say he wouldn't. we're expecting likely role reversal. as you mentioned reince priebus is there or possibly still there at the trump tower.

hat 1:00 meeting with donald trump. 2:00 news conference scheduled for about half an hour from now. we expect to see donald trump then. neil? neil: not legally binding agreement, right? is just a promise, a pledge? >> just your signature and your word which means something to a whole lot of people but in this case not legal. neil: absolutely. blake, thank you very much. blake in washington. sign on this, i will not eat anymore ring dings or yodels, signed neil cavuto. okay. we'll see how it goes in half an hour. not being cynical about this but come on, really? we've got oil. crazy markets. we have gas now in a lot of state, it is under $2 a gallon. how long does the momentum continue? drivers who might be waiting for these lower gas price, seems to be a bit long. their ship has come in or at least cheaper gas will come in,

right? >> it does seem to be coming in. what i look as a benchmark, wti crude oil futures. essentially they broke down recently to a new multiyear low. that is a good thing. bodes well for -- neil: doesn't seem an unusual delay. >> it does seem an unusual debay lay. i just think it nature of the markets. it is catching up if you will. this is from a long-term trend in crude oil beginning in 2014. whether you're long-term bullish or bearish depends on your time frame. i think you should be bullish. i don't think the lag will have effect on gasoline in the near term. near term i think you can expect crude oil will continue the downtrend which would be more impactful for the consumer. neil: there are always pro and con arcments to lower gas prices. consumer enjoy lower gas prices.

tangible money safer in the pump. in macro sense it is reflection after slowdown going on. what wins out? what is the biggser picture? should consumers hope pass prices stay at or around these levels, maybe a little higher? if they go too low, we've lost 56,000 oil-related jobs this summer, what? >> difficult to quantify that of course. there are two sides to the story. the way i look at crude oil a trend falling perspective. downtrend reflects something going on with global growth. you've really seen that so far in the emerging markets the most. hopefully it didn't have too much of an impact on the u.s. equity market you but there are changes in the armor where s&p 500 taken out support. neil: dagen mcdowell reminded me, one state, south carolina the average standard going rate is under $2 a gallon. we'll have update what is going on donald trump with the pledge he signed. how committed he is to the pledge. whether it indicates whether he is caving to republican party

officials demands or not. it could be the other way around. they are caving to his. and he is very serious about not only obtaining their nomination, but going all the way to the white house. more after this. it's from daddy. sfx: dad's voice i love you baby girl. duracell quantum lasts longer in 99% of devices so you can always be there. ♪

neil: in washington josh ernest about to conduct a press conference, if he is not on vacation. first opportunity for administration to respond to

sightings of chinese naval vessels off the coast of alaska. closest vessels have ever come to alaska, at a time that the president had been sort of touring the glacier area, the arctic area. these guys were doing, god knows what. officially no response to this the our military doesn't appear to be too worried about the developments of chinese. they were in international waters and leave it at that. former lieutenant colonel alan west of congress says it worries him. why, alan. >> good to be with you, neil. not just you have the chinese there, but russians conducting massive military operations, re-establishing military bases. russian navy has 40 icebreakers to deploy to the arctic. the united states knave has none. many of those troops will come from alaska. if you go back to remember the last debate with mitt romney when he was asked about the

greatest geopolitical threat to the united states of america, he said russia. the president laughed it off, saying '80s wants foreign policy strategy back. we see russia, china, make be inroads to the arctic where you have 30 to 35% of the oil reserves in the entire world. neil: he said, allen, these are international waters. we can do what we want. this is not military target move against the united states. you don't believe that? >> no, i don't believe that. as a matter of fact. 4th of july, vladmir putin made a call to president of the united states of america to wish him happy independence day while russian military aircraft, bombers flu along the -- flew along the west coast of the united states of america. which have now a russian research ship dangerously close to a united states naval submarine base and it is being followed. you see all of these different incursions to include step up of russian activity in support of bashar al-assad in syria.

remember what the president said to demetri medvedev after election he would have more flexibility. we seen what the flexibility means. russians taken crimea and eastern part of ukraine and china expanding into the pacific neil: scary stuff happening at the same time. we're monitoring the press conference f we get official statements from the white house we'll pass it along. allen, pleasure. >> always a pleasure, neil. neil: on corner of wall and broad, dow is up a quarter of what is was earlier in the session. nasdaq was trading in negative territories in and out of the being unchanged but netflix, a big catalyst for this sudden assault on technology stocks. it is down, an additional 2% today. 11 percent in the past few weeks. so what is going on here? tech investor extraordinaire, one of the smartest entrepreneurs i know, big commitment to promising

undertaking, alan patrick hoff. what is going on, alan? >> it is pretty obvious, neil. television what i was born with and most people lived with for a long time. then we went to cable. now we're going to streaming. netflix had it almost to themselves for quite a while here. now we've got amazon encroaching. apple as of yesterday or today, all the word is coming out that is going to happen. we have hulu. people have a lot of alternatives how to watch. neil: no longer just netflix's oyster here? >> i think they certainly don't have it to themselves. they're all trying to develop their own programing, which gets down to content. we're reproducing what we had on television. we'll find the kind of same kind of struggles getting great content. that is what will get viewers. that will sell advertising. that will get traffic subscriptions. neil: hurt traditional cable companies. it hurt traditional entertainment companies like this one.

i'm wondering, what the nasdaq is telling us is a lot of those issues, have joined others under pressure, selling pressure. has nasdaq run up too far to fast? has technology run up too far, too fast, traditional names? >> i don't see the tie between netflix and specifically technology. i think netflix is in its own trajectory up or down. i think that -- neil: apple are indicative of a high flying -- >> they're related to otherissues than just technological developments. neil: you're not worried all of sudden the technology run-up is in danger? >> i am concerned. more concerned frankly from the private investment aspect than i am from the public markets. frankly the public markets in technology are cheaper than what's happening in the private markets where there is an enormous inflation of value and, it is interesting article in the "new york times" this morning say, in the business section, where i think headline is,

people are asking where the are profits? in the private area, a lot of these companies raised money at extraordinaire valuations and investors have not focused as much, where is the beef? where is the return on equity? neil: now there is hell to pay for the averages? what is more real? what has been happening, stability last couple days or what happened last couple weeks? >> i think what happened last week particularly. neil: yeah. >> was, would have a more dramatic impact if it extended itself. now we've seen recovery. so you have had mixed messages. i think that, my sense is we have more down days to come. and more adjusting. but you know, total amount of decline is not overwhelming at this point. neil: i want to ask a quasi-political question. >> sooner or later. neil: this is market connection. hillary clinton has targeted a lot of wall street fat cats, i guess, extended to definition

guys like you but on tiered capital-gains tax. a lot of wall street pros tell me that will be bad for the markets. her proposals, her ideas are anti-market. what do you say? >> i'm, maybe i'm not going to give you exactly answer you want but i think people really don't invest based on capital gains tax. i find amazing in particular in private markets. if you ever talk to entrepreneur said, you will have to pay this tax or that tax, would not make difference to building a company or starting a market. neil: what about private investing companies. >> has no impact. people do not -- most of the investors in private markets are particularly institutions who pay no tax. there is no danger of changing. so i think from the standpoint of capital gains sure everyone would like to have lower taxes. i think that anything that can incentivize people, not necessarily hillary's formula, which, you know, needs more discussion. but interesting idea, we've

suffered for a long time on short termism. people, institutions, investors, hedge funds, trade actively and there isn't enough reasons to keep people in a long-term basis. so i think anything we can do to encourage long-term holds is a positive for the country, positive for growth, positive for research and development. positive for people running public companies. neil: you still like her? >> of course i do. i mean -- you wouldn't invite me on here if you thought i didn't like her anymore. neil: are you kidding. alan, thank you very much. good read all the time. we're waiting another guy i'm sure alan loves, donald trump getting set to sign a pledge that is getting a whole lot of attention he refused to do it a few weeks ago and could be on the verge of reversings himself. what does that mean? what is he up to after this?

>> i'm connell mcshane with your fox business brief. we're in the midst of what we would call a fading rally here on wall street on the floor of the new york stock exchange. as neil might say in the middle of all the action, action that had the dow up strongly triple digits earlier in the day but just a 44-point advance right now. we've given a lot of that back. if we look at stocks first on the way up and now on the way down, you get idea what is happening. cisco, ibm, moving higher but still off earlier highs.

on the downside dragging us lower, caterpillar, interesting, seen as economic bellwether. shows they're concerned about economic growth around the world. the stock is down more than 18% year to date. finally real quick, storied stock of the day, limited brands. you say that is reason for us to show victoria secret video. that is only half true. stock is up on better than bet . 5.4%. cavuto coast coast. look at that neil. back in just a moment.

neil: all right. see this is trump tower. gaspo, that is few blocks? >> right up the block. neil: inside there is a lot of brass and markel. donald trump will soon be there. the big deal, he will sign a big pledge. will commit himself with reince priebus in tow not bolting from the republican party. dagen and charlie gasparino. others follow through. dagen, what do you think of it. >> beautiful salmon colored marble indicative of '80s. what i will say about that. neil: you're still a hater. >> this makes him more of a republican when many conservative people scratching their heads about donald trump and why he has garnered this vote. by the way -- >> 20 bucks, go right there. >> even this time of year there are a lot of gawkers because tiffany is in the building.

there is tiffany and gucci in the building. neil: you know the neighborhood. >> i went up there, and said my price is 50. >> 50 bucks. you're saying these people in this crowd didn't wander in? >> i suspect not but i don't know for sure. not confirmed it. neil: once a hater always a hater. >> one thing i have confirmed, we should point out steve wynn's people as we reported earlier, steve wynn is advisor to donald. wynn's people confirmed they prodded him not to do third party to take loyalty pledge. his people are on record. neil: why would wynn do that? >> wynn despises left ward tilt of democratic party under president obama. neil: he used to hate donald trump. >> he used to -- these guys are like, change with the wind. wynn voted for president obama apparently. that's what he said. he used to think donald was a fool. he used those type of words, a liar and things like that. neil: must be something to this. charles payne, i'm looking at

this, if this doesn't prove that trump is seriously running here and aware of the political calculus and risks, in states like south carolina, getting kicked off the ballot if you pull a stunt like that, then he is going for all the marbles. >> he is going for all the marbles and you wonder who is blinking, is he blinking or is gop blinking? i will tell you this, some early support is of donald trump don't like what is happening. they like him, jumped on bandwagon, because he didn't do these things, because he didn't apologize, precisely he is anti-establishment. a whole lot of people -- neil: you're arguing it could hurt him. >> not in terms of policies. he is so anti-conservative in some ways. i think that is what boggles -- let me finish. >> depends on your conservative. he is not against -- >> listen what is conservatism? free trade. he is for tariffs. it is anti-immigrant rather than --

>> you think conservative system capital-gains tax cut and i'm telling you there is huge, huge portion of the conservative electorate. they don't care. >> listen i will tell you -- neil: she didn't say capital gains. >> i said -- neil: can you keep it down? >> they don't care about that. >> you know what? conservative -- >> a lot of conservatives don't care about that. >> free market, free trade. >> no it us not. not to a lot of conservatives. you're wrong. >> it is attracting best and brightest in the united states -- >> you're wrong on all those issues. >> okay my parents worked in grassroots republican party before i was born. i don't know what i'm talking about. >> not on immigration. a huge portion of the conservative electorate hates open borders. a huge portion of conservative electorate -- i'm not saying agree -- neil: you mentioned this go to charles payne. you're scaring me. i want you to stop. charles payne, he is redefining at least the party preferences towards typical conservatives

right? >> he is tapping into a base emotion. all of this other stuff we're talking about right now has, doesn't mean anything right now to what donald trump his success so far. his success is same thing that propelled the tea party from nothing to major player. that is extreme frustrate phrase with both establishment and right and left. gop, won the midterm elections and did squat with it. people are upset and people looking to him. >> why did romney lose ohio? yes, president obama had better boots on the ground and all that, but they underestimated or misestimated amount of emotion among working class, particularly working class whites. >> that's what i'm saying. >> who don't care about trade. don't care about the capital gains tax. don't care about all the issues. >> that is not conservative principles. that doesn't mean they're conservative principles. i don't think people are looking at kind of stuff yet. i think right now it is all about emotions right now. that is what trump is winning now. neil: all i will look at, i want

to bring dennis kucinich in with us. i believe you're with us. i don't know who is right on the panel. i know they're very smart. when they're yelling when that they scare me. i will say this, dennis this, is proof i think donald trump is serious about this race. he is very serious about this race. what do you think? >> neil, you're right. he clearly expects to win the nomination. and in signing the pledge, he will then expect the other candidates to support him as they have signed the pledge as well. neil: charles payne raise ad very good point. some of his rabid supporters might not like the fact he is kowtowing an becoming a conventional candidate. i think i paraphrased that right. what do you think of that, dennis? >> i think donald trump keeps breaking the mold and creating a new one and breaking that one. and he is, i think he has a lot more latitude than most candidates have because of the way he pursued his candidacy.

it has been wide and open and, unconventional. and frankly, the american people right now are not looking for a conventional politician. >> i want to just say one thing. so he might alienate people who like him for signing this pledge. maybe he brings in more traditional republicans but he still has a long way to go to win back latino voters and -- >> i think that's right. think of forgotten majority of conservative movement of right of center movement. can't say conservative movement. they're working class voters. they are largely white. some are hispanic. they see issues you articulated before not as bread and butter issues for them and they stayed home. they have been staying home. that's what he is appealing to. he gets 20% of the them. neil: cobbling together a very different populace -- >> silent majority. >> he is cobbling together people who have that kind of passion. they will show up to the polls. >> right. >> they were motivated. losing their motivation

particularly after midterm election. boehners of the world let them down. con nels of the world let them down. they are next dreamily upset. he does risk losing that to a degree. dennis kucinich is used to conventional. chris christie signed it, all other guys signed it. this is conventional move this is something a lot ever people don't want him to do. >> not signing it at last minute. neil: yeah that is very good point. >> let's see how he unveils it. this could be very unconventional unveiling of a conventional -- >> bottom line, neil. he expects to win the nomination. that's why he is doing it. neil: i think you're right about that. could be very scared you and i are on the same page, dennis this crowd, he sees poll, sees sustainability. sees he is clearly proving critics wrong, not a free polling phenomenon. and here is stay. this is impediment in the way that can hurt him in states that could take him off of the

ballot. he is making pragmatic tactical move. >> exactly right. neil: it tells me is going way beyond the moment here. >> absolutely right. >> also some bottom line, if he says, listen i will not leave you guys. you guys don't leave me either. everybody that signs better get on board. neil: like the godfather. >> will jeb bush support donald trump. >> he better. if they all signed on -- >> becomes, runner meets the road with donald when he spend as dime. he hasn't spent any money. neil: that is amazing. >> when he spends money i believe it. >> who paid for the anti-jeb ad? >> could put that together for $5. >> somebody was paid to put it together. you won't wave a magic wand. >> costs $10. neil: dagen, remarkable the richest guy for office doesn't have to. >> not yet. not yet. he will at some point. that is a big question. of course he will. >> absolutely have to spend

money. >> he creates -- neil: despite what charlie said that these people were paid to be there look at attention. >> he is notoriously cheap. neil: so are you. >> i am but i'm not worth -- neil: 10 billion. >> i'm telling you that you have to spend money on these things. you know what? here's the thing. neil: he has gotten away not -- >> i can't wait to see when he goes to the hedge fund guys, that i'm really your guy. >> he charms the pants off people. i saw him charm the pants off you doing, charlie is.to dropping trow, whoa! >> donald said to me -- neil: don't ever park in my spot again. >> don't think i'm serious and you were once my friend. >> he did charm you. come on. >> i love the guy. i like the guy. i like the guy but i'm being honest here. being fair and balanced. you know the motto of our network.

neil: right, right. >> guy never spends any money. neil: will he be mom nye of this party? i don't know. i don't know. all experts keep coming on air that he won't be a losing a lot of credibility. >> falling by the wayside. i've been a naysayer. i see people gloming on to somebody powerful and popular because they want to get behind a winner. neil: dennis kucinich, i heard a lot of liberals say they hope donald trump is nominee. they would annihilate him. what do you think of that? >> they would. >> i think republican party signing loyalty oath today becomes one big, happy dysfunctional family just like the democrats. neil: well, would be very dysfunctional family again just like the democrats. >> i, did jeb sign the loyalty pledge? neil: did jeb sign it? a lot of them did. seven of them did. he did? >> i'm sure.

>> perry called donald a cancer. neil: we were wondering about that. >> that is what primaries are all about. neil: you were right. trish coming up to get into this and a lot more. holy cow, trish. this is it, right? trish: big crowd there on fifth avenue, neil. break this hour, every one, we're moments away from mr. donald trump taking to the podium to address the public. you're looking at a live picture there. he is expected, everyone, to announce he will take the rnc pledge to not run as a third party candidate should he not get the nomination. over the last 60 minutes here he has been meeting with republican party chairman reince priebus, there at trump's campaign headquarters there in new york city. we'll be coming to that podium to address the public and let everyone know, we think, that he is not going to take that, or that he will take that pledge. welcome, everyone, to "the intelligence report." i'm trish regan.