itself. ashley: we don't know what is goes on with the campaign. tamara holder on hillary clinton losing support of women voters. she lost 29% in the last eight weeks. interesting stuff, neil cavuto. neil: what a drop-off, you know, ashley? if you think about it, that is a free fall. only can count what is happening now, got time to pick up. boy, that is a free fall there. ashley: that certainly is, mr. cavuto. take it away. neil: thank you very much. all eyes on california tomorrow and the big presidential debate. i can tell you already they have the knives out and ready to get extremely nasty. picture a cavuto family reunion with weapons. i'm neil cavuto. you're watching "coast to coast." donald trump free at throwing bashes, the -- barbs, the barbs are coming back. look at poll before tomorrow's

big presidential debate. "the donald," outside after competitive fight with a neurosurgeon is running away with it. those asterisks in the campaign who are fed up finally ready to respond. we've seen them doing so to rather tentative degree. expected to get hot and heated tomorrow. charlie gasparino, melissa francis, alexis levinson on what's at stake. gas, what you were saying during the break, the others have no choice but to respond. >> you know scott walker es camp denied it. rubio's camp denied it. jeb bush denied it, about a month ago when i reported that they were boeing to do attack ads. they would funnel attack ads through the pacs. you're starting to see that now. jeb bush has an attack ad. starting to ramp up rhetoric against trump. there is interesting thing about donald, in new hampshire there are private polling that is being done a lot of people think he is behind that would be the first if that is him. that would mean he is now

finally starting to transform an unconventional campaign to a conventional campaign. when that happens -- neil: his very signing the pledge was step in that direction. what do you think, melissa? >> i think they will come out swinging against trump because that is only way to get attention. we'll see a lot of people trying to attack him. it is dangerous. neil: the one who is have done it really suffered, not exclusively for that. >> except for carly fiorina. neil: very good point. >> responded to an attack. i don't know she went head-on. a lot of campaigns dying for oxygen, they realize this is only way to do it. when you look at polls, that is incredible. when i talk to people no one will submit supporting trump. a great secret in america, well i talk to friends in other states. they say this is crazy. i talk to friends in florida. they won't admit anyone there is supporting him. maybe i have the wrong friends. that's possible. neil: beats having no friends. uh-huh.

>> no, no. neil: stop it. >> working-class people that are -- neil: telling you not just working-class people. >> they are voting for trump. neil: i think you got it wrong. >> i think people vote for him. they weren't admit it. neil: alexis, one of the things i'm watching, i think melissa hit on it, the role carly fiorina plays on it. if anyone is right to seize the initiative and seize on donald trump and go after him. she has done so effectively in ads and statements. what do you think she does tomorrow and how crucial is this debate for her? >> i think this is almost the mark key matchup we're waiting for. she has shown in the past she doesn't pull punches. i think she will go after him. >> i do too. >> in less, cranky, nitpicky way. neil: can do it in nasty way.

>> she is hardcore. she cuts to the quick. she is smartest and fastest than other people. she is best suited to go for the throat with him and hit the mark and succeed. >> what is the mark? i will say this we have a fed rate decision on thursday. neil: are you kidding that is this thursday? >> this thursday. neil: by the way -- >> did ralph not tell you about that? what is he doing. >> make my point before you shoot me down? neil: go ahead. >> we have economic anxiety, the fed doesn't raise rates it means it sees potential recession. which can kate will go out there to speak to that? can donald trump articulate besides pure anger or put together a key inherrent sentence, here is how i will get the country going. carly fiorina can do that. neil: the person who this hurts in that environment is hillary clinton. >> absolutely. neil: rate hike if it were to come. >> i don't know. i don't know that anyone is focused on the rate hike in that

sense, in the voting sense and i'm not sure. neil: could happen thursday. could happen thursday. >> my producer told me about that i guess yours didn't. i don't want to get anyone in trouble. >> not the rate hike that that is trouble. neil: the fear what it leads to. >> is our economy slowing down. neil: perception is everything. alexis, one thing benefiting donald trump, statistically we have great recovery but steady and sure as we goes. trump says we can do better. this is pathetic as historical recoveries go this is pathetic. they will pound it tomorrow as they're pounding hill. who do you think wins out? >> donald trump doesn't seem tethered to put forward actual policies as a lot of other candidates are. he goes out and says this economy sucks. we're a bunch of losers. we have to get it together. but he doesn't have to say what he would do about the economy.

we all keep saying, oh, eventually he will have to nail down on specifics. >> i don't think so. >> what will make him nail down on the pacifics -- specifics yet and he is rising in the polls. you will always win if you never have to put forward any -- neil: many candidates are not offering a whole lot of specific. >> they're not rewarding specifics right now. scott walker talked about his main thing, getting out there talking about unions, blowing up the nlrb. what he could do to put unions behind us with the government. that is his big point. neil: not rewarded for minutia. >> jeb put together a comprehensive plan i like but put me to sleep, to borrow something from trump. articulating that. how to bring down rates and -- >> nobody cares. >> you know? >> i want to thank you all. pressed for time. we're not pressed to get this issue that galvanized a lot of you e-mailing me by the, dare i

say, dozens upon dozens. david stockman talking about the one thing they're not talking about, our debt. listen to this. >> politicians in washington think they can kick the can indefinitely -- neil: who is the candidates, impresses you the most when it comes to at least recognizing this problem? >> you know, it is really sad to say there is debate of 17 coming up, not one of them is focused on the true evil in the system. neil: you don't agree with that? alan simpson, senator and co-chair of debt commission. no offense to the fine senator went nowhere. he is has been saying, alan, what you've been saying a long time, 18 trillion, 19 trillion-dollars debt, no way to address it. they don't talk to the is specifics. >> you're talking to a guy who knows a lot about evil. i heard that the group on the last time they were really getting with it.

well, very simple, now anybody, that thinks interest rates will stay where they are is goofy. it is going to go to historical levels. guess what, whether you like the debt or not, well you say the deficit is down so there is no more problem. that is great, i hope it goes to zero. the debt is on automatic pilot for god's sake. when the interest rates goes up and the federal reserve is twitching like a frog in biology class. they don't know what to do. when they do it will go to 3, to 4, to 5. when it does, the interest that we'll have to pay will be about 600 billion a year instead of 240. and that sucks. talk about oxygen getting sucked out? it sucks it out of defense, education, infrastructure. neil: alan, no one is talking about it. maybe chris christie touches on periphery wanting to means test social security, push age back a little bit. at periphery rand paul talking

about you know whether we have got a twisted dependency on the fed but the bottom line is, that none of these guys, and carly included are serious about really detailing how they address this bloated debt and more specifically, these entitlements. >> yeah. well, they're going to have to start talking about it. they have people in our groups, and a lot of groups are working on this in new hampshire and iowa saying, we want to know what you think about this. as long as you have a political system where if a democrat talks about entitlement reform they get a visit from the aarp and the afl-cio and republican talks about revenue and gets a little chat with grover norquist and club for growth you ain't going nowhere. neil: you made a very good point, alan. melissa touched upon it, candidates that tried to get into specifics have not been richly rewarded in polls. those that haven't, are doing all right. what do you glean from that.

>> babble into the vapors. they have all got pollsters. get up, here's nerve. hit this one we'll have a chart that shows their blood pressure went up or down, what the hell are we into,? neil: it is scary, alan. >> it's a horror story. neil: it is. but you're not horror guy i appreciate it. when we talk about entitlement and debt all that, our debt is 18 trillion bucks, right? niger discovered bernie sanders is looking at spending, spending $18 trillion because that's what the economy needs. niger, who doesn't necessarily fashion himself a math expert says that doesn't make sense. no it does not, niger. what are we to make of that? that is very populist theme. we have to make the system bernie sanders used that toppled the rich. what do you think of that?

>> reminds me of albert einstein's definition of insanity, doing the same thing, over and over again and expecting a different result. look, we had the most progressive tax raising government since woodrow wilson. certainly since fdr. neil: that isn't stopping, niger. some of the latest proposals. give bernie sanders his due. he is consistent on this and actually walks that talk. talking about much high every tax rate. >> yeah. neil: saying it is obligation to finance all of this for the rich because they have gotten away with murder. that is rave reviews, french revolution type responses from the crowds that there is, almost a guillotine moment here. it is crazy. >> i look at it more like greece and the streets of athens where people were protesting very minor cut in the huge social services they have.

look, greece which is the economic basket case, at least has the backstop of the e.u. in germany. of course the e.u. has the military and financial stability backstop of something called the united states. we can not afford to go down that path. we don't have a backstop. we are the last stop, if you will. the fact is that bernie sanders's program, which calls for 18 trillion more in spending, raising taxes, raising all the taxes and disaster that would be for the economy and slowing down already weak recovery. neil: people have crunched some of his numbers. >> yeah. neil: i'm passing this along. so i haven't checked it out, if you were to tax even the top 5%, let alone the top 1%, at 100%, you wouldn't be able to pay for everything he is offering. >> that's right. neil: by that math, he has to go down the food chain here. i don't know whether the same crowds roaring in delate now would be roaring when that

happens. >> i don't think so. that tends to be case, neil, you know this the super-rich, the big corporations always have the sophisticated accountants. they have sophisticated lobbyists. they find tax loopholes. find ways not to get taxes. and usually those big tax increases miss the so-called, elite and hit those of us that would like to some day be in the elite, if you will. those of us in middle class trying to climb the economic ladder of opportunity. the problem with bernie's program, it calls for $18 trillion and more spending. with all his tax increases it would only bring in about $6 trillion in revenue. neil: niger, i thought about it, eight tone trillion number where did i hear that before. it is our debt. >> subtract six from 18, you have 12 trillion. you slap 12 trillion on

18 trillion we're well past greece and where you superpower of greece. neil: carry the one. niger, always good to see you. >> thank you, neil. neil: a lot of people who are in this field say that is nonsense. we have all sorts of protections to make sure they don't cheat. we had the same protections in nor north korea. when north korea was amasses nuclear weaponry and a nuclear arms force of its own. now we're told, that they're ready to pull the trigger. ♪ we live in a world of mobile technology,

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sort of like split views what the federal reserve does or doesn't do. that is the reason de jure they're giving. plenty of reasons to think the fed can put off a rate hike at the two-day meeting that starts tomorrow. plenty of reasons to think it doesn't have to do that but the bottom line the underlying confidence that the economy itself is relatively, put that in quotation marks, relatively sound but there is no way to judge. these are topsy-turvy markets. we have triple digit point swings and that is routine. to glean anything significant beyond the moment it is happening is well, stupid. so i won't fashion any immediate excuse. all right, i will fashion immediate reminder to you on making deals with countries that tend to cheat or lie. north korea comes to mind. just as we're getting ready to secure this deal with iran that seems all but a done deal now we're getting news north korea, a country we also were policing aggressively to make sure they

didn't build any nuclear capabilities from bill clinton to president bush, through this administration apparently it worked like a charm. north korea is warning it restarted all nuclear bomb fuel plants. a day after it was threatening long-range rocket launches. north korea upgraded and restarted all atomic fuel plant to produce more sophisticated nuclear weapons. again that could all be bluster but the fact of the matter is, we had this so-called carrot-and-stick approach that congressman mark meadows remembers well in dealing with north koreans where if they agree to do this, we would give them this. if they just stopped entertaining nuclear notions. well apparently that didn't work out too well, congressman. what do you make of this? >> well it didn't work out well. history is about to repeat itself and as you correctly point out, neil, what we saw was back during the clinton administration some of the same

negotiators working on a framework 12 years later, a nuclear explosion underground. so they now have only nuclear capability but nuclear bombs. yet we somehow think that the iaea is going to police it, sanctions relief will make us all sing kumbayah. you and i know better. troubling we're about to go down the same track again. neil: i don't understand, sir, why we repeat the same mistakes. i understand this tends to be human nature. why we constantly see wars and altercations but some of the same provisos we built in with iran in the latest agreement were the same securities and monitoring we built into north korea, including the freedom to inspect north korea's sites. then north korea said, no, we're not letting you in. then the u.n. inspectors, i guess the iaea of that day, said, no, no. we have to come in and show us. no, it is our country. you're not coming in. that should have telegraphed

warnings to what is going on now and these assurances built into an agreement that has no such assurances because a rogue nation, i would probably put iran in that category, like north korea, ignore it? >> well they can ignore it. we know from paragraph 5 of the side agreement that hasn't been officially delivered to us but we saw the text of that, says that they're going to allow them in as a courtesy. iran is letting them in as a courtesy. if we look at north korea kicking inspectors out, it only ratchets up the potential aggression we may see. but even more problematic than that is, we all want peace. we all want to live in harmony with our neighbor. we have actors that don't want to do that and when they don't, we have to take you have a testify stand. this is obama's failed foreign policy coming back -- neil: congressman, like in

north korea, we were starting to release sanctions money, not to the tune we have here in iran but i understand that, but other countries that amounted to billions of dollars at the time before they made good on some of these commitments. north korea knew they would get us to the table if they promised to sort of monitor their own nuclear ambitions but they really wanted the money. they gave emthis money. this was something extended to europe and nato powers. we gave them the money and they obviously took the money and ran and lied, right. >> they took the money and run and lied but not only are they doubling down now, when we start to give away any leverage we have, sanctions was part of it with north korea, certainly part of it with iran today, when you give it away you lose all your leverage points and we've got to quit looks and allowing the football to be pulled out underneath when we go to kick it. same thing over again. neil: i liken that analogy.

i was likened to charlie brown myself. i was there. i kept falling down. congressman, thank you very much. very apt prediction. >> thank you. neil: but this isn't peanuts. a lot of money. the hike is it coming this week? will we get hike in interest rates or not? two-day fed meeting commences tomorrow. wraps up on tuesday. you might have heard fbn is devoting round-the-clock coverage to this. not round-the-clock, but certainly the mid-afternoon. it will be big. we have gary kaltbaum coming up. you know what he says? now is not the time to hike. we are not in the right place to be doing this right now, after this.

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don't let unanswered legal questions hold you up, because we're here, we're here, and we've got your back. legalzoom. legal help is here. neil: look at big board. the markets were up 1, 6, 6, 6. interesting? i have no idea.

federal reserve will decide whether to hike yea or nay interest rates. gary kaltbaum, one of the smartest guys i know this guy for decade. he gives me great emails and comments that i seize for my own. a quality i admire of myself. gary, your feeling whoa, now is the not time to do this? why not? >> main point. they have not raised rates nine years now. markets heading south. rebounding a little bit, not just here but around the globe. you have countries, if not in recession, getting close to. i'm pretty sure darn good slowdown here. so why do it now? i don't think they're going to. i will stay with that stance. neil: you don't think they're going to this year? >> i don't think they will raise rates this year. they definitely will not in september. neil: how can they not, gary. their line in the sand.

how that worked out for president obama and syria. when you telegraph markets you will do something, and you don't there is more hell to pay? >> they moved that line many times, my friend. it was 6.5% unemployment. then it went to six. then it went to who knows what. i think they will stand pat. not get one in december. it is holiday season. they will not want to screw things up. neil: i agree there is never ideal time to do that the flip side, does the market take your credibility away? if you're trying to satisfy the market beast and calm it, are you doing opposite hinting of one thing and not doing it? >> i think markets around the globe and doing that already with all uncertainty over last couple months. neil: why should the fed be a creature to the markets? >> because that is all they have been. they have been a creature to the market for a while. they started money printing. as soon as it stopped they took

another hit and did number three. neil: this is pavlov response to government. it ruined china's day. this stock market is built on helium. >> governments care more about asset prices than anything else right now. think i they know asset prices have kept the economy afloat for very long time. around i do think they're starting to lose a little bit of that. you saw that in the last couple months. i think they will stay -- by the way even if they decide to go up a quarter of a point, that would take interest rates, zero, dash a quarter percent to a quarter percent. that would be meaningless also. neil: you know what that means. not so much a quarter of a point. it would set the stage for lockstep advances in the future. >> i doubt that. if they move a quarter point, stop dead in their tracks, stay easing around the globe forever. other countries are still printing trillions of dollars.

i think beat goes on until markets decide otherwise around force the opposite. it just hasn't happened yet. neil: gary, we'll see. you might have a future at this stock market thing. >> we try. neil: keep studying, it will pay off. gary kaltbaum is good at this stuff. another good good at this stuff, wonder why he is not running for president. scott mcnealy. former microsoft ceo and icon. he is not in any race but knows what is behind buck men and women. what -- businessmen and business women. can you guess? next.

:

. neil: all right, you might have heard there's a big debate tomorrow night, and all eyes and probably knives on donald trump. 75 days or so after announcing, how is it donald trump maintains the number one status in the polls? my crackpot theory on trump's success is the fact he speaks his mind, but more often than not it's the fact she more technologically savvy than you know. anyone who says anything bad about him, within a mano second, a nanosecond he's responding. that's because his eyes and tentacles are everywhere, and doesn't scott mcnealy know, the sun microsystems technology titan, et al. i think that's his big success. he keeps track of everything, and has the technology to boot. >> and it's not polls anymore. polls don't matter, it's what's going on in social that's

driving. for instance, on twitter, i feel bad, i only have 12,200 followers, trump has over 4 million followers. and look at carson and fiorina, they're in the half million range. he's dominating. that shows support that he's able to get the message out so quick. neil: how does he, though? how can he keep track of what everyone is saying about him? >> weigh-in is a tool that allows anyone to track the entire social conversation by key word, by trends, by whatever. neil: if i use weigh-in and want to see what people are saying about me. >> we could do that in a second. neil: really? let's talk during the break. on this, i don't understand why other candidates don't get it as much, because he responds rapidly. they do respond, sometimes using the same technologies, but not nearly so rapidly? >> they don't have the followers in their messages and as emotionally exciting or

resonating with him, or haven't been work at getting the followers. it's hard to do that. he has a consumer brand which is very valuable, carly comes from a more -- not quite the consumer brand that trump's stuff is. he's worked hard on it. any time you are on tv, like trump, you get an enormous number of followers that way. neil: he filled up a 20,000 person arena. >> it's amazing. neil: you know carly from your h-p days. we're told, scott, that she's the one person who could put trump in his place, maybe because of how her ads and how she's responded online to his attacks, presumably on her looks, he says no. how do you think this would go mano-y-mana. >> that would be an interesting challenge here. i think carly is very articulate in what she says, i have a hard time disagreeing

with her -- i disagreed with her in business, we competed like crazy and partnered and hewlett-packard was a great partner. she knows how do that. she's been around the world. she's got the experience. i think any ceo has a huge advantage in my book over -- i'm a believer. neil: there's two ceo's, he's a ceo, too. this past weekend he was criticizing ceo pay as excessive. that would be like dietary advice because he's a billionaire, it resonated with the folks online? >> i'm a believer in creating products and services online. neil: have you seen his buildings? they're everywhere. i'm not sure there is terrible amount of innovation, anybody who understands where innovation comes from, where wealth gets created, it doesn't necessarily get created on a you're fired tv show. i think it gets done through --

neil: you're just angry you didn't get the "apprentice" gig and schwarzenegger did. most people have been saying surely it would have petered out by now, and he's as popular as ever, and say different rules apply to him. what is the reason scott mcnealy sees as his success? >> you know, it's hard. i think everybody is angry. totally angry. government is so out of control. it's skoch creek beyond belief and they're innovating, i call it crony statism, i do not call it crony capitalism. neil: what it that mean? >> when you use the government and regulations and taxpayer dollars to grow your business, and it is because the government is encroached on financial services, on health care, on education, on all of the main -- they're everywhere. you have to work with the government and become a crony statist. i'm a believer in the private

sector, small government, limited regulation, and allowing people to pursue and -- neil: that's the conservative economic thought on socialism. >> it is very liberal and social in the sense we let people -- >> i agree with you, here's where trump dislodged many in the republican party. that he doesn't favor lower taxes across the board. the rich should pay more, we're going after hedge fund managers, saying they're getting away with murder. the companies that ship goods overseas they would pay under president trump. he's told nabisco i'd stop eating oreo cookies because you ship jobs out. that's resonating oddly enough with the same base, he's not the base i remember, with the republican party. >> yeah, i believe all of these things can be solved by reducing the scope of government, and you will get jobs coming back home. neil: what do you think his wanting to penalize hedge fund guys and go after companies

that ship jobs overseas? >> companies don't ship jobs overseas. people get hired overseas. it's a competition, it isn't a question of shipping. neil: president trump would punish them. >> i don't believe in protectionism or isolationism on an economic front, it won't work. but i'm not sure exactly -- i haven't been able to decipher trump's actual philosophies and strategies and the values under which he will decide things as he goes forward, and i think that's going to be hard for him, until he lays the philosophy out clearly as opposed to one-liners and sound bites, i think it's going to be a little more complicated for him to get all the way there. although, you know, i look and i think the voter is very, very confused these days. neil: yeah, and we've elected unusual folks at different times. >> i also don't know how voters who have been educated by government sector unions and

tenured professors can have a clear -- young voters have a clear understanding how the market economy and capitalism work. neil: or even care. i can get your take on it? do you think as an accomplished ceo in your own right and the business world that guys like you can't make it into politics because you're calling the shots in business, you are dealing with shareholders and boards and i disagree with that, just a description, that trump would be in for a rude awakening. he just can't tell mexico to build a wall, he can't tell the chinese to get off. it's not that easy. >> the ceo versus president is a different job, people think that ceo's can just dictate, we can't and don't. we have enormous number of constituents. neil: you have a way to force things through. in a good way. >> obama doesn't? neil: yeah, i hear you. >> they're the chief executive and they do have executive powers.

so i think having somebody who is an international, diplomatic and accomplished -- neil: you're being nice. >> i'm trying to be nice. neil: see? i caught you being nice. it was a rare slip for you. >> i run out of things to say. neil: real quickly, these markets are up about 180 points. they telegraph they're going to hike rates. what happens if they don't, scott, the end of the year comes and they have not hiked rates? >> the fed is only creating uncertainty, and by printing money we're devaluing everybody's nest egg, in dollars, assets, so my view we ought to grow the money supply at the same -- as a three-year moving average of the gdp, and ought to grow the money supply. neil: we would have never had this market rally. >> we would have never had the big problem. neil: good point. >> so we wouldn't have had the asset bubbles, if you keep the money supply growing with the

rate of gdp, it takes all the uncertainty out and get rid of the savings & loan bubble, the derivitive bubble, the fannie mae bubble, grow the rate of supply at gdp, you will take all the uncertainty out and see ceo's go crazy investing and implementing and growing the business. and i'm not running for office. there's not enough kevlar to keep me there. neil: there are a lot of good ideas. >> follow me on twitter and i'll give you more ideas. >> i want the research on my name and see what people are saying. you heard about the syrian refugee crisis, a lot goes back to russia. we're going to explain and more to the point, we're going to explain why we're not doing anything in response. there's a reason for that, too. after this.

. neil: i want to show you what's going on in miami beach.

border patrol is responding to a maritime smuggling event, responding to information about 12 undocumented aliens who apparently came over in that boat. we don't know their nationalities, but all of this comes at a time illegal immigration is a worldwide event, particularly out of syria, where millions are trying go anywhere they can to get away from syria's president assad, and these type of things, not only playing out in miami are playing out worldwide. they're building walls in hungary, as they're building up security forces along the germany-austria border. with me is the director of margaret thatcher center. this is going on in miami, and this is going to play out across the globe, and no nation has a handle on it. >> you're absolutely right, neil. about half of syria's population for example is left the country, 250,000 people

have been killed in syrian civil war. large numbers of refugees, hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions are making their way now to europe. this is a truly global crisis, and i think the situation frankly is going to get worse. neil: you know what's interesting, nile, and i know you're looking into the origins of this, that everything seems to lead back to russia. explain. >> well, i do think that the russians are actually playing a deeply unhelpful role in syria. they've been propping up the assad regime, together with iran. the russians now are launching a military intervention in syria. they're sending in troops. they're sending in equipment, artillery, tanks, building airfields in western syria, and i think the russians, yet again, are playing a deeply unhelpful role in the middle east, alongside the deeply unhelpful role as well in

eastern europe and, of course in recent years, russia has been terrorizing its own backyard in eastern europe, tearing apart ukraine, for example. moscow has been deeply unhelpful a player with regard to international affairs. neil: but they're a clever unhelpful player, right? i'm sure vladimir putin foresaw exactly what's going on, just as fidel castro foresaw emptying his prisons and mental hospitals in the late 70s in what became the great cuban boat people crisis, would yield the same results. a lot of people trying get the heck out of there fast, right? >> yes, i think vladimir putin is no fall. he is somebody who is a major opponent of the west, but he's playing a rather clever game here in syria. in a way he's feeding off the carcass of syria, and he's

locating this military base in the mediterranean, strategically important location. he is potentially waiting any kind of downfall of the assad regime, he's trying to prevent. that but, of course, if assad falls, the russians would ensure they have a military power base in that region, but the russians certainly, brutal, unscrupulous and i think in some respects are playing a very clever game in the middle east, aligning with the iranians and i think that russia poses a significant threat in the region. neil: you're right about that, because we see what's transpiring right now, and it's getting worse. the early estimates of four to five million has been upped to as many as 7 1/2 million. nile, thank you very much. we're told the self-driving cars are going to be the coolest thing, what if i told

you it's not just talk, it's about to become a reality?

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and learn more about the kinds of plans that will be here for you now - and down the road. i have a lifetime of experience. so i know how important that is. . >> i cannot wait to say you're fired, or you're terminated, or you won't be back. neil: maybe he'll work more on that as he gets closer to the show. i think arnold schwarzenegger is the perfect host for celebrity apprentice, connell was passed up for that. but they weren't looking for kind and gentle. >> arnold will be good. >> i think he'll be excellent. excellent. you're into this whole self-driving cars, i used to think when we were talking about this before, it was a pie in the sky dream, but they're putting the pedal to the metal.

>> google brought in the ceo of the self-driving division who's a car guy who worked at hyundai and ford and other things. neil: they have a self-driving division? >> yes. neil: they started a division and put him -- >> in charge of it. to your analogy of pie in the sky or research project, the google people called it to an actual business, they're serious about this going out in the street, and they're testing them of course. neil: is there software for it? are they physically making the car? >> that's the question. that they haven't decided yet. remember what they did with phones with android? there's other companies making the phones and they were providing the android. it could be that model or get too complicated because all that goes into making a car where they say we get through the whole thing ourselves. that seems something they are internally debating and haven't announced yet. there's a lot of possibilities that people joke a lot about

it, the data shows the cars as they test them are safe. do they get in accidents? sure, do human beings get in accidents? yes, they are more serious about it. neil: it would be great if schwarzenegger got that job. >> that would be one of the projects. neil: i need to go. it's horrible, we need an update on the markets, after this.

. neil: all right, we are always trying to find reasons to have a market move up or down, i feel compelled to check this out. and a lot of people e-mail and call me and let me know because i'm kind of a big deal. anyway, my buddy from brooklyn runs a deli near the new york stock exchange says he has a theory on this, not such a crazy theory, the data on the slower side that a german sentiment index was slipping severely. the empire state factory gauge

was slipping, shanghai composite fell another 3.5%, and that in this environment, the last thing you want to do, he says, is hike interest rates. that makes sense for me, but you know, when all is said and done, buddy makes the most delicious italian grind, so if in doubt on his market insights do not doubt his sub insights. so just passing that along. here's what we've got going now in the political race ahead of the big debate tomorrow. the fact that whether you like donald trump or bernie sanders or ben carson, it's all these outside the box candidates or not your traditional upon dream candidates who are resonating. take a look among the republican front-runners, about a third to half of the vote is going to nonpoliticians. take a look at what bernie sanders is doing, and i know

he's a united states senator, but he's a socialist. he is outside the typical petri dish. he is leading the party establishment figure, hillary clinton, in both new hampshire and iowa, and not just by a little bit. by a lawsuit. to gina loudon and christie selzer on the anti-establishment surge. such sentiment fades the closer we get to primaries and on election that we romance with these type candidates than we inavailably go back to the comfortable types, what do you think? >> i think that the american public has gotten rather comfortable, neil, with the idea of someone who's not going to give lip service to the dire issues of our country in this moment, and someone who's going to put a little action behind their words, and i think the confidence in the establishment-type candidate is just absolutely gone at this point for both parties. neil: do you agree, christie?

>> i do agree with that. i think if you are any sort of established politician, if you've held elected office whatsoever, your chances are in danger this election. it's broader than what you suggested earlier. if you look at republican party, it's as much as 6 out of 10 voters who are supporting either trump or ben carson or carly fiorina. all people who have never held elected office. that's terrify fug are a traditional politician. neil: we get to a point where people's patience breaks and mean it when they say i'm sick of this, i want to go outside of this. this is how third parties are formed, different type candidates have emerged. abraham lincoln comes to mind. i know that was a long, long time ago and things changed. but candidates who are not the typical candidates or early on favorite candidates emerge. gina, could this race be that moment? >> i think it is very impossible to predict anything

other than the fact that the people that have felt like political correctness squelched their voice for so long feel they found their voice and intend to keep it neil. my background is in psychology, you get someone in therapy, and for a moment, you just kind of repeat back to them what you understand them to be saying, effectively, that's what donald trump did. he said, hey, american people, this is what i perceive you to be saying, and all of a sudden, it's like a volcano erupted and the american public intends to be heard. i don't think there's any stopping it at this point. neil: christy, people want specifics, if you are outside the box, you know what know what they're going to do? >> surely. bill clinton famously said the people prefer strong and wrong to weak and right. they're getting a lot of strong and wrong out of donald trump who has a lot of incredibly insulting things to say that is

very damaging for the republican party but doesn't seem he's afraid to say it to anyone you. >> say strong and wrong, on personal comments he's made to individuals, but not on policy, you know what i mean? >> what's more damaging to the republican party than a candidate who loses perennially. that's what the republican party delivered so far, is a john mccain, a romney. i think that's wrong for the party, and right now the numbers that donald trump is attracting from independents and democrats and women and hispanics and blacks, i don't know how you can call that wrong for the party. neil: might beg to disappoint to both your ideas. thank you very much. speaking to ladies in the aggregate, hillary clinton should be worried about this one, rapidly losing support among her strongest days. women voters to lanny davis on that and whether hillary and surrogates should be worried. are you worried, lanny?

>> can you hear me? >> yes, i can. i am not worried. that was lanny davis in washington. you're looking at this -- i'm kidding. you're looking at this and saying this too shall pass. that was essentially the gist of our last conversation. >> i'm sorry, i was so entransed by people who have this -- neil: in other words this free fall she's experiencing isn't going to go on forever, the people take a good look at her, size her up against the bernie sanders, potentially the joe bidens and realize she's the real mccoy? >> yes, but she is the real mccoy, and this is september before january and february when the elections begin, and historically, your two prior guests, excuse me for not being focused, i was trying wonder how can they predict anything given past history. who is the leading candidate at this stage over the last four, 8, 16, 24? you get my point?

neil: you are right, we had the herman cain love affair at this juncture, the michele bachmann love affair. >> it's comical. neil: the clintons themselves were not seen as a serious threat at this stage of the campaign. having seen all of that, do you worry she's out the gate and stumbling and got to get her act together. perceptions quickly become reality, the perception is she's disjointed with the press, not able to respond quickly enough? maybe that's an press induced coma. >> i think she'll be our nominee, and i do hope and expect that joe biden will run and that bernie sanders is a great man, and that we will have high ratings over the course of the next several months, during the debates and that hillary clinton will end up as the most qualified, experienced and likely first female president of the united states. but i am concerned there have

been the problems the last six months with a very, very critical press corps, which is what we expect, and not handling the story as well as she said, as well as she should have. that does cause me some concern, but i believe she's our nominee and i believe she's our next president. neil: do you know, or truth to the rumor that bill clinton was saying that she should not have apologized for the whole e-mail fiasco should. have stuck her ground, did nothing wrong. the gist was she immediately came out and was on defense, i'm cutting to the chase. what did you think of that and is that true? >> there's a crisis management reaction and personal reaction, crisis management reaction is you apologize and you move on because the press treatment and the republican attacks are so severe that it causes this decline in trust and this decline in support even among women. that's a crisis management response. personal response is please tell me what she did wrong

other than not handle this very well? there is nothing illegal, that's undisputed that she did, even the justice department is saying that openly. neil: there could be a lot of classified e-mails that leaked out, right? >> excuse me, you said could, there could be men on the moon. neil: no, no, no, no. we know some might have been classified after the fact, but that alone, that alone, people have done far less have been more severely punished. if that happens to her, is she in trouble? that's all i'm asking. >> i know you don't want to get into details here, what you said is factually incorrect. colin powell used a -- neil: no, no, no, no classified e-mail got out? >> neil, you and i have an agreement, i do the program because you allow me to scombrr don't do what others do. neil: you don't answer me, lanny, there is nothing untoward of wrong here.

by that definition, no classified e-mail got out? >> no classified e-mail that was sent out were fact, which doesn't think there have been classified e-mails and the cia which does, yes. did colin powell mix personal and official? he said on "meet the press," that and in his books high said i sent e-mails on my laptop to principal deputies and foreign ministers. could post facto the e-mails have been classified? yes. is anybody saying there is a difference? the fact is i was about to say to you, she's done nothing illegal and nobody has yet found a classified piece of information at the time she sent it, or any harm done. neil: you think she'll survive this? >> i think she will be our next president, that means survival. i think starting with your first question, i have concern about the way the issue was handled from the beginning which she herself has said she

would have done differently. i think that's the most honest answer. i think she'll be our nominee. i think senator sanders and vice president biden runs are serious candidates. neil: you seem to be indicating that's almost a gimme? >> i'm guessing. i've known him for so many years, i love the man. i think he's being pressured, that with hillary clinton showing vulnerability, he's wanted to be president before, i'm guessing that he'll, it will help the democratic party to have a more competitive contest. >> i think he's going to run as well. lanny davis, good seeing. >> you thank you, neil. neil: charlie gasparino says forget the e-mails and controversies whether they blow up in her face or not. focus on what's going with the economy and fears of a recession. stay ain't so, charles. >> you just heard the way the clintonites will talk around this thing. in my view, do 90% of your business have a personal

e-mail. neil: if you're talking about a macroissue here. >> you can talk about that. she's not going to be able to talk around the economy. i can tell you from people like him. i haven't spoken to lanny davis, but people who the clintons surround themselves with, what they are worried about is the economy turning south in 2016 or the tepid growth becomes more tepid, that there is an economic issue that will derail her presidency. because here's the thing, in many ways she's running as a third obama term. why would president obama support a clinton? they personally don't like each other, right? the bargain she makes with him is i'm not going to repeal obamacare, do a 180 on the iran treaty or whatever the hell you want to call that monstrosity, and many of the other things. that's the third obama term. that's the foustian bargain.

what could screw it up is the economy getting worse or marginally worse and she's stuck defending the obama years. neil: how about a ratcheting up the interest rates. how do candidates survive that? >> if they don't ratchet up the interest rate. if they don't start raising rates and we know something is going to come out thursday or maybe nothing, probably going to do it by the end of the year no matter what. that is an indication that the economy is slowing. they're really scared what's going on in china, how that filters to world economies, somehow affects us and takes our tepit 2% growth, maybe lower. >> the rate hike compounds that. >> it could, they're raising rates at a very difficult time. neil: they feel they have to. >> not only that, what gunpowder do they have if the recession is baked in? they need room to cut rates. neil: are her money guys nervous? >> you know, yeah, they're

nervous but still -- she's got the ability to raise so much, and she's got a lot of friends on the street, and they're as tough as she is when it comes to the game. if they were nervous, larry fink, the head of blackrock would be telling cheryl mills right now get off my board. neil: who's cheryl mills. >> cheryl mills is a clinton counsel, a very close friend, adviser to hillary clinton, she's on the clinton foundation, worked in the clinton white house, she's part of her campaign. she's on the blackrock board. on the board of a major money management firm. if she leaves that board, you can see her money guys really worry about the e-mail stuff. they're not there yet. neil: thank you, buddy. appreciate it. charlie gasparino. while the people are nervous about the federal reserve possibly hiking interest rates as soon as this week they have a funny way of showing it. the dow at session highs. but next guest says whether they hike or not and whether it's this week or december,

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. neil: all right, we monitor a lot on this show, like white house press conferences father dow is over 203, i don't know whether this has anything to do about it. josh earnest talking about north korea, saying the white house will not accept a nuclear north korea, i'm paraphrasing there. that will not stand with them. we shall see, the cheating is the same rap against the iran agreement, and that all of a sudden iran has given assurances, the same assurances that they gave to the clinton

administration, the early part of the obama administration and north korea violated all that. bragging about it saying it's ready to start up the nuclear engines. more importantly, volatility, when it comes to the great interest rate debate. jared follows closely the market swings, and we have a big swing up here today, jared. do you know what's behind it? because you think they'd all be on tenterhooks ahead of the fed decision. >> typically, it's quiet time ahead of the fed decision, everybody hunkers down and waits two, piece of data that came out this morning, industrial production and retail sales, both missed the mark, and i was watching fed funds futures in my models actually changed. what i thought was a 50% shot of a hike later this week is now about a 25% shot. so that's what's fueling a little of the buying here. probably not going to see the rate hike this week. and 25-40% chance is what i believe. but by december i see that more

of a 70% chance or 75% chance now, and again, i think it's a philosophical and psychological thing that needs to be done. as charlie was saying earlier, if the fed does not hike, this is the most telegraphed rate hike in all of fed history. if they don't do it, it opens up another can of worms for market participants and see even a worse sell-off potentially. neil: well, a trusted source i have, echoes what you said, buddy from brooklyn, new york deli says data put the fed rate hike off. buddy says it is still coming. i don't know who's right. i put great stock in both of you. the fed put itself in its box by my guesstimations here, the fed did say we are all but going to do this.

one thing about greenspan and bernanke, they were so vague, i had no idea what the heck they were saying, that's a quality you want in a fed head, a federal reserve governor's and district presidents. you don't want to give them any sense that you have any point of view. so now they've all but said we're going to high, so what happens if they don't? >> yeah, it's not their job to drive the equity markets. you know are? . >> i think they think it is, and that troubles me. >> that's the problem. but again, you've given it us to, you can't take it away. you can, it just takes a long time, and unfortunately, the fact that they have telegraphed it to us, the fact we've gotten so used to it. the fact we're holding onto every word that the fomc says and readinged ands and/ors that are deleted from the minutes, we are addicted and to remove that is difficult to sell off. global easing, the fact that

central banks across the border lowering rates and stimulating the economies create a synthetic rate hike here in the u.s., and basically what that means is they don't have to move that much. a quarter point is good, one and done. neil: it won't be one and done, you're a good marketist, the markets don't see one rate hike, like they don't see one rate cut. that would make it history to go one and done. >> four months. one hike within a four to six months period, but for four months is how it's going to go. there's no reason to bring rates up a half a percentage point. you pacify the psychological aspect of the markets by giving that quarter-point rate hike, letting them know things are on track and you back off and start to pad things. again, i'm talk off the cuff and from a psychological perspective. but there's no need for half point rate hike, and again, i

think it's one and done for four to five, maybe six months. neil: thank you very much, jared levy. whatever jared did get to the point as did the butcher and deli owner, the fact of the matter is that the weak data seems to at least be keeping wall street optimistic that a rate hike might be coming but it won't come this week. that does not mean you should tune into fbn on thursday with the nonstop coverage of the potential move. the fed could still move and you will regret predictions that the move will be coming later on and you'll see if only i had watched, i'm telling to you watch. if you're not going to do it, the pope is, because he's coming to town. yeah, he's coming here. more after this.

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. neil: all right, it's not very often a pope comes to the united states. so obviously, this one,

especially as popular as he is, coming to the united states, in new york, it's going to be a mess with traffic. you don't even want to know. our lizzie mcdonald is looking into all of this and seeing an uprising on the right in his own church and nothing to do with the traffic he's creating, explain, young lady. >> what's happening, and thank you for the young lady. favorability rating has come down according to gallup. neil: it was sky high. >> it was sky high, at 76 in february of last year, now it's down to where he was when he first became pope in the spring of 2013. neil: where is it now is. >> now at 59% favorable. that's pretty strong. it's coming down, but come down among catholics and conservatives, they don't like the pope talking about climate change, and this is according to gallup, and they don't like his comments about capitalism and not mentioning how in

communist countries, there's rampant poverty and inequality, very high death rates and mortality. neil: you and i chat about this, and she writes great books on ss. she does. that's how she got this job. it's one but there are a lot of saints. i look at this, pontiffs are a creature of their upbringing. john paul ii grown up in poland and dealing with the soviet domination, he was a creature of his background. this pope as a cardinal and bishop and before that a priest, in argentina with banks ruling with the iron thumb and all, that he recoiled against that and saw great poverty. it was simplistic to blame that all on banks and all, the argentinean government did all that. i think he is a product of the upbringing and reflecting on views of capitalism. he has seen all of capitalism

sustain under that behavior. >> i agree with that, under the regime there is the third way, which is the pope is trying to do between socialism and capitalism, that's a hard avenue to try to go down. but the pope consistently. neil: that's china's way. >> it is china's way, the pope doesn't bring up with what's going on with terrible poverty in china and the humanitarian crisis. neil: he's got to thread the needle, between now and climate change and corporations have to get real and pony up, i'm paraphrasing, he's going to throw it back in folks' faces? >> i want to be clear, he did mention in a critique about free markets and trickle down theory, saying you're naive if you think that helps the poor. all popes will be about the poor, i was raised catholic, that is the focus. but what solved poverty the best? and capitalism has done it better. and by the way, we tried to

solve income inequality in this country via housing. we have -- we have an income tax system where the top 20% pay 8 4% of the federal tax revenues where the bottom 45% or so don't pay federal income taxes. the pope said 80% of the population controls 80% of the wealth. neil: sounds like bernie sanders. >> about the planet, capitalism, communism, socialism in that statistic. we're look for more definitive language from the pope. neil: you're the expert, as you know, i read a prompter so i think i qualify. i think what he's doing is expand the base of the catholic church. he reads that practicing catholics are rapidly declining, he's got to get more young people, more minorities, reach out to the south american continent, reach out in regions where you don't have them anymore, if for no reason than

to filtpews, to fill the coffers. he is looking at a business that's dying by the traditional measure. >> yes, you're right about his perspectives about argentina but can't be stuck in your lane of thinking in your pew of thinking. his views on capitalism are right now idiosyncratic, peculiar and unique, and not bringing up the problems with socialism and communism which is on the back doorstep in south america. neil: he's a big fan of fbn, he said if you don't get it -- [ laughter ]. neil: thank you very much. a heavenly response in the dow up 222 points. when we come back, what's really behind that, and a message out of the certain state and what alveda king would say to the messenger? after this. can a business have a mind?

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neil: well, it hasn't happened yet but i'm predicting in kentucky and elsewhere a lot of lawsuits could be coming all because of kim davis is not issuing marriage licenses to gays. she is back at work and still refusings to sign off on such gay marriages. now, the proviso that was made that got her sprung from jail or understanding, an agreement we were told, never had this confirmed, that she would not be the one issuing the licenses. i don't know what she does. if she is not issuing licenses as clerk that is among the key

jobs issuing marriage licenses. her under links would. she wouldn't write off on them. that is weird because it is her job. there is a big fuss. supreme court ruled essentially in the law of the land. they say in the government position says she has to honor the law of the land. dr. aleda king, disagrees with that. you stick with kim davis in this respect she is following her conscience, right? >> she is following her conscience, we have common law, the government's law or man's law people make. we have natural law. and that is god's law. anybody whoever tries to follow god's law the natural law can run up against some roadblocks. my uncle did, martin luther king. my dad did, ad. she doesn't seem to be fearful woman and believes in her convictions. neil: let me mention your great

dad and your great-uncle, i don't remember them being against blacks and whites marrying even though at that time it was grounded upon. now, only reason why i mention that is, where do you draw that line because kim davis has drawn it on gays marrying. in the job and in the capacity as a government worker it is the law of the land she has to honor that. not like someone runs a pizza shop won't serve pizza at gay wedding or baker, won't serve at gay wedding. hers is different. she is in government position. >> i want to remind everybody my dad and uncle was not dealing with humansexuality, but their fight was on skin color. their fight was against the skin color and right of decisions. neil: there were no laws on books forbid blacks and live whites from the marrying but it

was frowned on. where is the distinction here and where is the distinction with kim davis? >> with kim, she believes in the natural law. she seems to follow god's law there. neil: god document love bays. >> god loves everybody. but kim has beens twod for example. so she is not a perfect person. but based upon her convictions, her belief and understanding she is trying her best to follow that remember she is human being too. all of us are flawed. sometimes our reasoning won't be she is doing what she. she is courageous. neil: should she be in that position. >> that is where we begin to split hairs. i was talking to attorneys about that. >> you shouldn't do that shouldn't talk to attorneys. you were mentioning three of your kids are lawyers. >> they are. but don't let them see this broadcast. i believe that. i said to one of my children who is an attorney. now, will the government be different and set a standard say we have different standard for

our citizens our standards are thus? so i mean almost like, if you are working in a government position of security, and there is a requirement for your uniforms or something religion says i have to cover my head. neil: right. >> do you have to quit the job or not have the job? we're having these issues and questions now. neil: if you're a right to life person you wouldn't work at abortion clinic? >> i would not. neil: so if you are dead-set det gays mayoring areand despite law of the land and supreme court ruling you shouldn't be in the position of issuing marriage license, right? >> well, that is something we must absolutely consider. we have there again, natural law and common law. they're clashing. god's law and man's law. she is caught between them. neil: doesn't matter what she is thinking about. >> yeah. neil: looking from perspective if everyone did that with every supreme court law we wouldn't follow the law. >> we can't do that with every supreme court law, we can not.

neil: if your dad or uncle were working in that clerk's office and gays came in and want ad marriage license would either of them grant it? >> i don't know because as -- neil: would you? >> i would not. i would probably do what kim davis is doing. i think she is courageous for doing it. i really do. neil: thank you very much. alveda king.t we'll have much more. >> thank you. that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one. i earn unlimited 2% cash back on everything i buy for my studio. ♪ and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business... that's huge for my bottom line. what's in your wallet?

>> it is time for your fox business brief. i'm connell mcshane back here on "cavuto: coast to coast." we found out earlier today retail sales rose in august but did not go up as much as expected. here are the numbers for you right there, 2.02% in the month compared to july, estimate 0.3%. we're still below this number. still a positive, july headline growth was revised higher. look at retail stocks while we're talking about retail sales. walmart and target are both up. macy's to the downside. you would think falling gas prices are a big help to the consumer in general because they're still going down. in fact they're lower by 27 cents in three weeks. that is broader look at the market before we breaker who. the oil price, 44.53. just talked about gas. it is up 50 cents. stocks today, wow, look at this now. 200 plus. the cavuto rally is in effect. we'll be right back.

neil: look at wall street. stocks taking off like a rocket. nice segue to my next segment. jeff bezos wants to build rockets, baby. it is true. the amazon gazillionaire, bought "washington post" with spare change he found under his couch cushions is committing what could be billions of dollars into space f that ring as bell, it should. elon musk is doing same thing.

richard branson doing same thing. paul allen, doing same thing. all billionaires, all very interested in this. the space expert what is the differentiator is with mr. bezos. what do you think? >> i think this is huge debt for jeff bezos and his company, blue origin. selecting a launch sight. neil: right at cape canaveral. >> right at cape canaveral. legacy of human and unmanned launches in our country. they have a lot of expertise they can draw on. 300 plus jobs they will create there. they are investing 200 million in the new facility. neil: how is it different, difference from what elon musk is doing from any of these guys? >> in the background blue origin have been building and designing rockets. they have no site but they have a design but no site. that brings them up to where elon musk and spacex are.

they are launching out of the same air force station, cape canaveral since 2010. they also have a launch site across the pond at kennedy space center for their next rocket, the falcon heavy. this brings blue origin to that level. they have a site where they will launch from. neil: they're a little bit different. jeff seems like democratizing space travel, right? elon musk, what? >> with we know from blue origin and jeff bezos said in the past, they're not averse selling rides on the their spacecraft. they're building two different versions. new sheppard vertical landing will only go into suborbital space. neil: the other is the cheaper ford pinto. >> that is their baseline one. neil: that would worry me. >> they tested already in april actually. they said they will do it more over the -- neil: why can't these guys get together? obviously very hard for even billionaires to compete with the money nasa used to get in the

heyday of space in inflation adjusted terms. if all the billionaires came together to combine resources? >> if think all came together you can imagine what spaceflight they con put together. they want their own kind of profit margin. >> i understand. we're still hitching rides to get into the space we conquered with the russians. any of these guys helping in that regard? >> boeing and spacex and elon musk they have plans in place to do that. just -- neil: got to get it right. >> exactly. last week spacex unveiled glitzy interior what the new seven-man rocket spaceship will look like. the new shepherd vehicle, the passenger, orbit tall one blue origin is doing. has some of the same amenities. guy and wint dose. it will launch up and come back down. they will make that one reusable as well. neil: you think of all these guys who has the best shot making this profitable ongoing enterprise. >> i think spacex is kind of in the lead because they have done a lot of the groundwork.

neil: right. >> they have the proven technology. with this announcement, with this launch site, that was the biggest ingredient missing from blue origin. i think they're chomping at the heels with spacex. neil: gotcha. they have money to play with. good to see. tariq malik, space.com editor. with we come back, what do you think would happen if we went for months without a rate hike, if we went for another year without a rate hike? what then? just curious, what then? m would that stick around? well, stick around. can tap global insights. active management can take calculated risks. active management can seek to outperform. because active investment management isn't reactive. it's active. that's the power of active management.

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call to enroll today and enjoy these benefits and more, like smart ways to save and tools to help you stay healthy. most plans also include part d prescription drug coverage. your healthcare needs are unique. that's why, with over 30 years of medicare experience, we'll help make things easy to understand and guide you every step of the way. so don't wait another day. if you're new to medicare, or retiring, call now and talk to unitedhealthcare about our plans, like aarp medicarecomplete. let's get you on the right path. call unitedhealthcare today. neil: all right, let's assume it will happen. rates will go up. might not happen this week. might wait until december if it happens at all. they will go up. can't stay zero forever. gerri willis is exploring who

wins, who loses in that event. gerri, go to see you. who benefits. >> savers. neil: dying breed. >> people in retirement, near retirement, those kind of folks. cds, they will benefit. those rates to up. money market mutual funds will be better off. look at other products you might not be used to talk about. long-term care insurance. if you're buying insurance policy for after environment, those products have been super expensive. because of low interest rates as have annuities. there are a lot of products people buy to protect themselves. take care of themselves. not the government to do it. they have been hosed last nine years with low, low interest rates. they will benefit slowly and over time. neil: slower than when loan rates go up, right? >> yeah, that is the other side of the equation. who doesn't. >> think about it. cd right now, one-year cd paying 1.02%. what is variable rate on credit

card, 14.9% on average. think about that difference. people penalized are credit card hoeders. variable rate credit cardholders which is nearly everybody. adjustable rate mortgages. home equity lines of credit. anybody with a variable rate product will see rates tick up a small it b one warning, if you're the safer, out there looking for best paying cd, they don't pay a lot, you need to shop around, big banks are really not desperate for deposits right now. they may not react immediately. but small banks, especially web-based banks, will jump on it. they want your dollars. neil: quickly raised a quarter point. some are paying quarter, half a point right now. >> that's right. if you shop around you're much better off. neil: i can remember a time when it was in the teens, young lady, thank you very much. >> thank you. neil: gerri willis gets tired of old stories, when i was your age i walked to school six miles both way uphill. republican senator mike lee

joining us on latest drama going on capitol hill. senator, we're hearing from josh ernest from the white house that a shutdown is not an option. what do you say? >> i hope he is right. i would like to see us move in the direction where we return to what we call regular order spending. where congress, having passed a budget which we did this year for first time. pass as dozen different appropriations bills, each, funding a different aspect of government. we need to return to that standard we departed from over the last six or seven years. neil: to include groups like planned parenthood, right? >> but in each question. in some cases we wouldn't necessarily be addressing planned parenthood funding when we go to fund the department of defense, for example, as we tried to, just a couple months ago, but were filibustered by the democrats in the senate, we were stuffed but trying to fund the department of defense. trying to fund defense operations. neil: i know, senator. i want to understand to keep track of this drama.

the administration made clear if there is effort to defund planned parenthood and attach it to threat of a shutdown in that event, if you don't get that, he will not be a party to that. shutdown would be on you, all hell to pay, blah, blah. what do you say? >> i can understand perhaps why the president would want want te that way. that enhances president'ser, put us in position give us all or nothing. by the way as the president told us last weeks, he told us basically, unless you not only fund planned parenthood increase spending. you go over the spending caps that have been put in place, by law, then i will veto any of these things. this is exactly the problem. neil: to avoid that he would blow the spending caps and onus would be on republicans to explain how they forced shutdown. onus would be on you. how would you respond? >> that is exactly why i get back to the point of saying regular order appropriations. neil: do what mitch mcconnell said earlier and john boehner

said earlier, shutdown is ever, ever, ever, ever on the table? >> well, as i explain in my book, chapter 9 of our book, our lost constitution -- neil: touche. way to bring that book n i give you credit. >> you gave me the ultimate tease, neil. i had to do it. in the lost constitution you put congress in that situation, you fund everything or nothing, keep everything funded at current levels making adjustments at current levels or fund nothing it produces really skewed results. neil: i agree with what you're saying. mitch mcconnell does, john boehner does, leaders do, yourself, obviously, this is something that as tool backfires on you. and they agree in substance with what you're saying but that it is zero-sum game for republicans. wouldn't even entertain it. mcconnell is forceful saying never would be an option. you seem to tell him now it could be an option? >> well i'm not saying that anyone wants a shutdown.

i don't think anyone does. no republican wants a shutdown. what i'm saying you put congress in a terrible position, in a position in which you never know what is going to happen. when everything is on the line, congress has to fund everything or nothing, you don't know where the votes will come from. and it is difficult to predict in advance whether you have everyone being willing to go in that direction. neil: you saw this date on calendar. both parties saw the date on calendar. shouldn't come as fox news alert. so why weren't you guys ready. >> that is excellent question. i would love to see us move in the direction where we don't get towards end of the month. we have 15 days between now and end of the month. in that 15-day period i would love to see congress moving forwarding as many spending bills as we can. neil: mike lee, thank you very much. we'll give update on market reads and sentiment. you're watching "coast to coast." ónóv

neil: all right. well the dow is up a lot.

everyone is focused whether the fed will hike interest rate as quarter of a point. that is a big deal. i don't want that to get lost. focus on what america is doing. this is sixth avenue, right outside of our offices here. avenue of the americas. they're buying hotdogs an fake gucci bags. life is going on. trish, i think we need the need perspective. trish: a big rally tied to expectations about the fed. we'll be live from the new york stock exchange in just a moment. donald trump has company at the top. welcome, everyone, to "the intelligence report." i'm trish regan. i want to quickly get to the markets. jamie cox is with me on set. what do you think is fueling the rally now up 220? >> i think the bond market is specifically giving the federal reserve the green light to raise rates. trish: you think that will happen in thursday? >> i thought it would happen in june. i was wrong.