trump? our all-star panel weighs in. david: as liz said this time tomorrow we'll know the fed decision. no matter what they decide a lot of folks think they have too much power. i do too and tell you why in a moment. melissa: not homeless but hungry for success. a buffalo woman was so desperate for a job she started handing out resume's on a busy street. it worked. she will tell us number one mistake job-seekers are making. [closing bell ringing] david: we'll look at stocks as closing bells finishing up. before the highly anticipated rate decision. dow, s&p 500, they're on track for the biggest two-day gain since august as we heard the bells. dow jones has come way off its highs but still in triple digits. not a bad day for traders. look at gold though. an indication perhaps the fed may not raise rates. when gold is higher they think the dollar will be weaker. that would happen if the fed doesn't raise rates. melissa: this is look at the board where we ended.

s&p 500 trading up by 17 points. nasdaq, oil, gold as you mentioned all higher on the day. david. david: while markets wait for the big day tomorrow here is everything you need to know now. we're just a few hours away from round two of the republican debates as 11 candidates get ready to take the stage in california. blake burman from the presidential library, wonderful site for these debates, blake. >> reporter: absolutely beautiful, david. the library behind me, the mountains in the back. picture-perfect, serene, calm. probably not going to be like that inside of the reagan library once the debate gets underway one might imagine. the stage there inside is already set. will be similar to last time. certainly a couple differences for one. donald trump will be surrounded by jeb bush. that stays the same. because of rise of dr. ben carson he will flank

donald trump tonight on one side and jeb bush on the other. candidates sprawl it from there. joining the stage tonight, 11 candidates. that is because carly fiorina joins the main debate after her successful performance at the fox debate last month and her subsequent rise in the polls. she was included in the main debate bringing it from 10 to 11. she said last night to megyn kelly this is a great thing for her because it will bring along with it name recognition all over the country she so desperately needs. take a listen. >> when i'm on the ground, it turns out even though i continue to have the lowest name i.d. in the field, and tomorrow night's debate is another great opportunity for me to introduce myself to the american people, i'm still in the top five in every single state poll. >> reporter: some different ways you can slice this, david and melissa. either way this all circles back at least at beginning here to donald trump.

who hits him, what do they hit him over, how hard does the field gang up on the frontrunner? or is just certain candidates here and there? we will soon find out next few hours. this is important for everybody here involved because you have to report your campaign cash at the end of this month. david: oh. >> they need to lock up donors that continues with tonight. david: but the trump factor is still the most important thing we'll watch for tonight. meanwhile we have earnings alert. first-quarter earnings results >> yes, we have them david, earnings per share, eps at justed 53 cents. that is one cent better than the estimate. a little short on the revenue. says its cloud revenue from the cloud services which is really putting a strong move into up 34% but it also notes the strong dollar was a big problem. this particular quarter.

they're also announcing a dividend of 15 cents a share. beat on earnings. a little short on revenue. moving perhaps a little lower in the, after the closing bell. this stock gained 1% before the bell during today's session, guys, but it has been down 7% over the past year. so, a mixed result, let's say from oracle. david: very good. ashley webster. thank you. melissa? melissa: republican candidates are ready to rumble. gop frontrunner donald trump once again takes center stage. what can we expect from tonight's debate? bret baier, host of "special report" and one of the last moderators at the last gop debate. bret, thank you so much for joining us. what do you think will be different about this one? >> hey, melissa, listening to jake tapper, our good friend at cnn he wants to try to get each candidate to mix it up with

another and really try to get interaction going. we tried numerous times on number of topics. they, many candidates were a little reluctant to do that in that first debate. maybe this, because donald trump and ben carson are leading by so much, in the recent polls, that maybe they will be ready to do that now. we'll see if that is the case. and i also think that having carly fiorina on that stage is a different dynamic, especially in the wake of the dust-up with donald trump. melissa: absolutely. what issue do you think will be front and center? what are two of the biggest ones? >> i think foreign policy you judging by some of the talk over there at cnn will be big. hugh hewitt is big into foreign policy, the radio talk show host. he asked a number of specific questions on that front. i think they're going to go for topics that perhaps didn't get as much airtime in the fox debate. and i do think they will try to

pin candidates against each other to throw sparks out there. melissa: people in the audience and pundits are making it everyone against donald trump. do you think that is how it is going to match up? they will try to take shots at him, that is way to get attention or is that very dangerous thing to do? >> i think it is dangerous, number one but number two, i do think there will be efforts to say where are his specific policy points. and here's what i'm going to do on that front. and try to differentiate between the candidate and donald trump. i do think trump will be a big factor as he was in our debate. it is a different dynamic, melissa. this is much smaller audience. very small in fact. and so it won't have the same field in the audience. melissa: yours had a big, big field. with he loved watching it. we appreciate it. david. david: can't wait for the debate.

another rally on wall street as investors wait for the fed decision tomorrow, speaking of wishings i have a confession. i hate the fed. i hate the fact that it occupies so much of our time. that a few select economists have so much power over our lives and our markets. that their few flawed minds and emotions make decisions that affect millions, probably billions of people. the collective wisdom of a free market is always smarter than a collection of smart people. having said all of that, is the fed really the best mechanism to regulate our financial? let's bring in our panel. scott wren, wells fargo senior global equity strategist, harry dent, author of the demographic cliff, steve moore, heritage foundation and ted peters former philadelphia fed governor. thank you, gentlemen. steve, kind of editorial, are you there with me. >> totally. so much power, janet yellen

unelected official, david, i don't know about you i never voted for her for everything. about this speculation the fed will or won't this is economically destablizing. it add as new risk element to the market which is bad for business and bad for markets. i'm with you. get to a rule, gold, commodities, take power away. david: harry, as stephens mentioned there are alternatives. a gold standard is mentioned by steve forbes and others. currency board. is it possible to live without the fed. >> absolutely. the only reason we had recovery since 2008 and nine because of quantitative easing, which not expanded economy or lending. it only expanded financial asset bubbles. they're trying to cure a debt problem with more debt and it can not happen. there is this illusion that the fed can taper off here and start to raise interest rates and economy will go into escape velocity. there is not a chance that will happen because the fundamentals

demographically and debtwise are the worst in history. david: my brother, ted peters, representing the federal reserve board. are we being too harsh here? is it bad to look for alternative to the fed? >> i respectfully disagree. i think the fed did a great job. they did a great job in 2008-nine when the crisis hit. remember the fed members, testimony omc and janet yellen they have no personal agenda. they want to do what is right for the united states. david: even the old expression the road to hell is paved with good intentions, the notion a market of millions, hundreds of millions of players is smarter collectively than a small group of people making these huge decisions over interest rates. what do you think of that? >> well, first of all everything is done not in vacuum. it is done with amazing amount of data points coming in. you have to have some type of central authority overlooking watching this thing. if the fed had not acted aggressively in 2009, along with

the treasury, we would have gone into a depression which would make 1932 look pretty good. david: bring that point to scott. >> i agree with that. david: do you agree with that. >> i agree, david, i disagree with you. i think we need an institution like the fed. i certainly don't want politicians determining monetary policy. that would be a big mistake. david: nobody is suggesting that, scott. we're suggesting alternatives like currency board or gold standard. >> i disagree with that. i think we need the fed. i think the fed has made some major league mistakes from the greenspan era to, through bernanke for sure but i will agree with your last guest that they have done a good job in this calamity after the financial crisis. saying that a lot of their actions got us to that calamity so. david: maybe if you're a trader, steve moore. if you were a saver and you're seeing inflation above interest rates, which is abnormal for our economy, you're supposed to be able to make a little money if you have savings.

you haven't been able to do that with zero interest rate policy. >> that's true. look, here's the main point. both these gentlemen saying look, they helped us out of the financial crisis. no. get us very clear here, ladies and gentlemen, the fed caused the crisis in the first place with building up huge, both in 1999 and 2000 -- david: i have to let him respond to that. >> easy money created a crisis. >> funny, congress wants more control over the fed. >> we're not saying that. >> and whatever. >> ron paul and son, everybody wants to get more involved in it. to me that is so humerus. -- humor rouse. congress is dysfunctional and can't balance budget. david: we agree with you. there are alternatives besides putting congress in charge of monetary. like gold standard rule. >> i think we're going backwards if you do that i think we passed that a long time ago. david: last word to harry. go ahead. >> hey, gold can not be standard because it can not support the global economy but you do have to have a standard.

debt grew 2.6 times gdp for 26 years. that is guaranteed disaster. i agree with steve on that. you have to have a standard says you can not expand debt and credit much faster than the economy and that can not be gold because gold can not do that today. david: gentlemen, great discussion. thank you very much. appreciate it. ted, you were good. up with against so many. appreciate it. melissa. melissa: looking at commodities, oil spiking getting a boost from weekly report showing bigger than expected drop in inventory. look at gold, another big winner. closing up over $16 an ounce. largest one-day price gain in nearly a month. dan stecich is director of economic research at athena private wealth. he joins me from the cme in chicago. dan, what do you think gold is telling us in the trade today? >> i think mentioned a few times on earlier programs that the fed probably won't go tomorrow. you will see a little bit of a jump.

look at gold relative to where it has been. near the lows of past couple months. a little pop of $15, $17 doesn't say a whole lot. other than uncertainty out in the market. melissa: crude oil, finally got inventory data showing big decline in production. expecting this to happen, prices were so low. you had to think people were backing away from pulling it out of the ground. what do you think we'll see from here? >> crude oil is finally doing what it is supposed to do. letting supply an demand determine where price should be. supply fell a little bit. demand hasn't changed. because of that you saw increase in price. going down the pike a little bit, couple years from now, if demand starts picking up, prices start going up, the suppliers that have stopped producing will start producing again. they say these fracking wells, depending who you talk to, between 45 and $55 to break even. as soon as it gets above those levels you will see production come again. until demand outstrips that

supply you will see probably a lid around this 55, $60 level. that is good news for our economy. melissa: that was a big jump in oil prices today, dan. thank you so much. david: all right chaos at the border. you probably saw the pictures, really intensifying along the hungarian border as riot police fire tear gas at hundreds of migrants. retired four-star general jack keane responding to how this changes europe. melissa: is this make it or break it for contenders in the grand old party? which candidates will be knocked out after round two? david: facebook giving into peer pressure with the company's latest feature won't end well. ouch. ♪ i've smoked a lot

and quit a lot, but ended up nowhere. now i use this. the nicoderm cq patch, with unique extended release technology, helps prevent the urge to smoke all day. i want this time to be my last time. that's why i choose nicoderm cq.

technology empowers us it pushes us to go further. special olympics has almost five million athletes in 170 countries. the microsoft cloud allows us to immediately be able to access information, wherever we are. information for an athlete's medical care, or information to track their personal best. with microsoft cloud, we save millions of man hours, and that's time that we can invest in our athletes and changing the world. perfect driving record. >>perfect. no tickets. no accidents...

>>that is until one of you clips a food truck, ruining your perfect record. >>yup... now, you would think your insurance company would cut you some slack, right? >>no. your insurance rates go through the roof. your perfect record doesn't get you anything. >>anything. perfect! for drivers with accident forgiveness, liberty mutual won't raise your rates due to your first accident. and if you do have an accident, our claim centers are available to assist you 24/7. for a free quote, call liberty mutual at switch to liberty mutual and you could save up to $509 call today at see car insurance in a whole new light. liberty mutual insurance.

david: disturbing images coming out of hungary, as efforts turned violent. hungarian police fired tear gas, trying to break through the border. after germany changed the tune about allowing free flow of immigrants from the middle east. how will this change europe? what is our role in all of this? retired four-star general jack keane weighing in. general, good to see you. first question about who these people were. a lot of military age, young men in the 20s, go up to the border and provoke action and police move in and put the women and children up front. kind of the same action you see by hamas, for example, down in israel. you wonder who these people are. >> listen, the overwhelming majority of people are displaced persons. we have 11 people displaced from homes in syria. four million outside of the country.

another 7.8 inside of the country. hundreds of thousands of others around the middle east in general. there are families obviously here. there are a lot of young people there. i don't for a minute to think they're all terrorists. terrorists need people back fighting wars they're fighting. i think countries will vet them and pick out those at that may in fact do harm to them. largely what this is, this is humanitarian crisis. people who are running and feeing from the death and destruction that they have been exposed to for a number of years. >> people who use the word invasion are using wrong word according to you? >> yeah. i think it is a humanitarian catastrophe, that bass actually preventable. churchhill when asked about world war ii and great calamity it was, 100 million people killed, he said it was one of the most presprintable wars we were involved in. this catastrophe here because u.s. and european policies disengaging from middle east and

letting thugs run wild in iraq and syria caused this crisis. david: president spoke in 2011, when he was about to remove practically all of our troops out of iraq, some people saying leading to isis moving in after we moved out. let's play the sound bite to get your reaction? >> iraq is not a perfect place. it has many challenges ahead. but we're leaving behind a sovereign, stable, and self-reliant iraq. with a representative government, that was elected by its people. we're building a new partnership between our nations. david: now obviously that was wrong, terribly naive. you add to that support of the muslim brotherhood, support of arab spring and you get what, this poll at this, what we're seeing all these my grant? >> one bad policy decision after another. that was most significant one, you one you played, david. clearly pulling out of iraq, gave rise to al qaeda initially

as terrorist organization. they moved into syria because of the chaos there. remember we would not assist rebels in syria even though iran and russia would assisting assad regime. we said know to them twice. the isis organization was born there. they established bases. two years later they invade iraq and create the chaos that we have in iraq today. we would not assist the new government in libya we deposed qadaffi. the only thing that new empty asked for because help me build security force to control radical militants. we did the do that. they burned down our consulate and killed down our ambassador and forced us to flee the country and causing the chaos we have in the middle east. our policies contributed to the chaos we see in europe. david: talk about dominoes. sounds like dominoes going the wrong way. general jack keane, thank you very much. >> good talking to you. melissa: a few other stories on our radar right now.

the cubans that lanked dramatically in miami were a weak at sea after fleeing cuba. the number of mike grants is up -- migrants as result of obama's thawing of relationship, fearing that the we will change the wet foot-dry foot policy allowing cubans to stay and apply for citizenship. an agreement addresses two tier pay structure and health care costs. the deal goes before the union's 40,000 members for a vote. a report that the national institute of health has spent 1 1/2 million dollars how infants think about food. here are the findings. children would rather not eat food someone has sneezed on or licked. david: what? unbelievable. melissa: shocking. david: taking care of business. president obama taking economic

victory lap and a jab at donald trump. the president says america is great right now. we'll debate that. you decide. plus not homeless but hungry for success. how one woman took charge of her own job search. that's next. melissa: do you like food that has been sneezed on? david: yeah ♪

♪ [ girl ] my mom, she makes underwater fans that are powered by the moon. ♪ [ birds squawking ] my mom makes airplane engines that can talk. [ birds squawking ] ♪ my mom makes hospitals you can hold in your hand. ♪ my mom can print amazing things right from her computer. [ whirring ] [ train whistle blows ] my mom makes trains that are friends with trees. [ train whistle blows ] ♪ my mom works at ge. ♪

my mom works at ge. actually, knowing the kind of srisk that you're comfortable sure thiwith,ight? i'd steer clear. really? really. straight talk. now based on your strategy i do have some other thoughts... multiplied by 13,000 financial advisors it's a big deal. and it's how edward jones makes sense of investing.

melissa: most of us have been there looking for dream job, sending out resume's left and right. my next guest took a rather unorthodox approach to the job search. boy, did it pay off. she stood at an intersection in buffalo, new york, said, not homeless but hungry for success. take a resume'. here with her story is kerry kimmel. thanks for joining us. i love your story. >> thank you. melissa: i love picture of you out there hustling. let's walk through it. you had a job at the time, right, when you went out on the corner? how did this get started? tell us. >> well i was looking for some

extra work, part time, evenings. i did have a full-time job. so just looking for a little bit extra. then it turned into something so much more. melissa: yep. what gave you the idea to stand there as he opposed, so many people just mail out resume'. they post it on line. you decided to stand at the road psy. how were you inspired to do that? >> it was quite frustrating handing out my resume' all the time and never getting any responses. so i just had to think outside of the box and figure out a way to step it up and show my personality. melissa: now, what you did is very unusual, so i imagine you got some unusual responses. what did people say what they went by? >> so positive. keep it up. a lot of thumbs up. it was overwhelmingly amazing how people responded, in person and online. i got a ton of emails, even if it wasn't for a job offer. you know, let's help you with your resume'. or you know, just keep doing

what you're doing. and you know, i have seen a couple of people do what i did and i hope the best for them too. melissa: so you did end up giving a job. give a plug to the people that hired you. they deserve it. what are they doing and did they pick up your resume' when you were standing outside? >> yes. the ceo of the company at stampede global actually saw my story in the news and sent the recruiter out with their little bible and, they said, we want you. and, it was a beautiful start to a hopefully great relationship. melissa: what is the biggest mistake you see people out there making right now looking for jobs? because i hear from people every day who are frustrated and can't find something? what is your advice to them? >> i don't have advice. i would say you just have to come up with your own creative way to stand out. that is what i literal i did. i just stood out. melissa: you have to hustle! get behind it.

carrie, thank you so much. good luck to you. >> thank you so much. david: good for her. i love those stories. melissa: i know. david: facebook finally may be creating a dislike button. ceo mark zuckerberg saying the company is testing alternatives to like button. they are asking about the dislike button. today is the day i actually get to say we're working on it. we'll see what they come up with. melissa: that will work out just great. people are too mean for dislike button. david: you think you see more than the like button? i think you may be right. melissa: i don't think that is good idea. david: how do you beat "the donald?" you can imagine that is keeping the gop opponents up at night. our all-star panel weighing in with their answers up next. melissa: is miller time going the way of bud time? there is blockbuster news brewing for the world's biggest beers. we have all the latest coming up. ♪ [ male announcer ] whether it takes 200,000 parts,

♪ 800,000 hours of supercomputing time, 3 million lines of code, 40,000 sets of eyes, or a million sleepless nights. whether it's building the world's most advanced satellite, the space station, or the next leap in unmanned systems. at boeing, one thing never changes. our passion to make it real. ♪ our passion to make it real. awe believe active management can protect capital long term. active management can tap global insights. active management can take calculated risks. active management can seek to outperform. because active investment management isn't reactive. it's active. that's the power of active management.

the internet of things. what we're recommending as your consultants... the new consultants are here. it's not just big data, its bigger data. we're beta testing the new wearable interface... ♪ xerox believes finding the right solution shouldn't be so much work. by engineering a better way for people, process and technology to work together. work can work better. with xerox. t11 intelligent driver-assist systems. it recognizes pedestrians and alerts you. warns you about incoming cross-traffic. cameras and radar detect dangers you don't. and it can even stop by itself. so in this crash test, one thing's missing: a crash. the 2016 e-class. see your authorized dealer for exceptional offers through mercedes-benz financial services.

>> so, the debate. i hear they're all going after me. whatever. whatever. no, i hear it. melissa: it is entertaining. you have to admit that. donald trump taking his gloves off i guess, ahead of tonight's team.

planning billionaire attacks on frontrunner. what is the best way to dealing with donald? brad blakeman, senior staffer with president george w. bush, bruce terkel, and steve moore, heritage foundation and chief economist and fox news contributor. bruce terkel, i will start with you. you are really the maven. if you had a client or you yourself had to face him, what would you tell them to do first? >> i would tell them to understand the situation. we're all looking at it wrong. this is not about politics. this is about entertainment. all the people in that debate are politicians. donald trump is an entertainer. he has been running a reality show for more than a decade. he knows how to do this. melissa: what does that mean, bruce? do jokes or if it is entertaining, what does that mean? >> he is not winning the game. he changed the game. they need to do that to him. we need a sound bite, from now on, each one should call him the

hypocrite in chief. ask him, hey, mr. trump, you spent 30 years as developer. how many illegal aliens do you employ in your hotels? if you don't do it, prove it. they should continue to call him the hypocrite in chief and chip away so there is a brand that's built. melissa: brad what do you think of that strategy? would that work? >> no, i don't think it would work as somebody involved in presidential debates. it is best to let donald trump alone. here's why? if donald trump comes after you and mentioned by name in your response you have 30 second rebuttal can be extended at discretion kind of moderate tore. treat trump as if he is not there. this is serious debate about foreign policy. melissa: serious guys are not getting traction. that is the problem, steve moore. only way people are getting attention in this debate. they're getting carried beyond

just the debate itself is by engaging him. that is what is working. >> look, i would ignore trump too. i would get off as many zingers, as many as memorable one liners. make them funny and hard-hitting. hitting donald trump there is nothing wrong with that people don't remember grandiose policy discussions. they remember hard punches an funny lines. melissa: bruce, brad told you you were wrong. do you want to respond to that? >> i absolutely do. he is talking old school. this is not politics. it is not issues. if people carried about serious issues they would listen to kasich. they would listen to serious issue oriented politicians. that is not what this is b it is branding. it is marketing. it is about old entertainment. melissa: boring old brad you want to respond to that? >> i will take the rebuttal. carly moved up to the big boy table is because of her performance. she is confident and knowledgeable. that is what the american people want to sigh.

i think they have had enough entertainment this venue is not one he can feed off of. not 20,000 adoring fans this is 500 people who are selected by the reagan library, serious people who will not respond to donald trump like he is used to. >> people are amused by donald trump. that doesn't mean necessarily that they're going to vet for him. melissa: why does he keep polling at very top? >> basically just a vote, i hate the republican establishment. melissa: all right. there you go, guys. david, over to you. david: keeping on politics, presidential candidate jim gilmore is not at the debate. he is making sure you still know he is in it to win it. he joining deirdre bolton at top of the hour. for a preview. deirdre? >> he told me week 1/2 ago that he is just plain wrong he is not allowed to participate tonight but he will be tweeting live tweeting the event. so one of the questions that i'm going to be asking the former governor of virginia is with

1500 followers, what effect does hope to have on the conversation? as a few of your previous guests points there, i will ask him what topics are most important to him, what he most wants to hear from candidates. all that and more coming your way. david: good stuff. deirdre bolton. see you at the top of the hour for "risk & reward." melissa: president obama is giving himself a little pat on the back for bringing back the economy but is it enough to bring us back from the brink of government shutdown? good news for kardashian fans and the kardashian bank account. we'll tell you how staying caught up on the lives of your favorite reality stars translates into cold hard cash. david: have to pay me to watch that show. maybe that is how it works. it's a fact. kind of like shopping hungry equals overshopping.

but it is not the device mobithat is mobile, it is you. usaa makes me feel like i'm a car buying expert in no time at all. there was no stress. it was in and out. if i buy a car through usaa, i know i'm getting a fair price. we realized, okay, this not only could be convenient, we could save a lot of money. i was like, wow, if i could save this much, then i could actually maybe upgrade a little bit. and it was just easy. usaa, they just really make sure that you're well taken care of. usaa car buying service. powered by truecar. online and on the usaa app.

you can't breathed. through your nose. suddenly, you're a mouthbreather. well, just put on a breathe right strip which instantly opens your nose up to 38% more than cold medicine alone. shut your mouth and say goodnight mouthbreathers. breathe right at ally bank no branches equalsit's a fact.. kind of like mute buttons equal danger. ...that sound good? not being on this phone call sounds good. it's not muted. was that you jason? it was geoffrey! it was jason. it could've been brenda. david: president obama speaking to members of the business roundtable, touting strength of

the economy during his time in office. take a listen. we created more than 13 million new jobs, the longest streak of job growth on record. employment rate lower -- unemployment rate is lower than it has been in seven years. this is testament to american business and envoy nation. i will take a little credit, this is testament to good policy decisions. david: harry dent, author of the demographic clift. steve moore, heritage foundation, julie roginsky, fox news contributors. harry, when i think of economy to celebrate coming out of the recession in 1980s, with 8% per quarter for certain years. final years of clinton administration when you had tremendous growth. i don't think of this as anything to celebrate, do you. >> this is the worst recovery in history because the fundamental trends are disadvantageous, demographics, i've said this for year.

greatest debt bubble in history created by the fed. this recovery since obama got in office. he got in office because the economy was bad in late 2008 and bad when he entered and gone up, 90% because the fed poured $4 trillion of free money, zero interest rates, short term and long term adjusted inflation, expectation on wall street and affluent getting richer without the economy making real progress. yes we hired back people. but only people we lost and fewer people are in the workforce. david: julie, we're a middle class economy. we pride ourselves and we should. the typical household we learned from the census bureau is making less than it did before the recession. that is not a reason to celebrate? >> it is no reason to celebrate. he inherit ad recession 20 times worse than ronald reagan inherited in the 80's or bill clinton going into office but that is hard comparison to make. you're right the middle class has been largely left behind. i think harry is right, people already rich have gotten

enormously richer but people in the middle class have not kept up. in fact they're feeling they made less than they did before. david: steve he talks about good policy decisions. what good policy decisions. >> reminds me of the john mcken row saying, you can not be serious -- mcenroe. listen to what the democratic candidates for president are saying. mid disclass people working at mcdonald's. this is not economy to celebrate. i think for democrats to talk about how wonderful things are, when not just the statistics you cited but look at polling. shows that 40 to 50% of the americans still think we're in recession seven years later! david: harry, i will quote somebody that dropped out, whoops. there he is. he is back in. somebody that dropped out of the presidential race, rick perry. it is not rocket science. you lower the cost of doing work or creating a business and you get more business. that is what you do. you lower the tax rates, you lower regulations, you get more business.

that hasn't been done over the past six years. >> but you also have to restructure debt after the biggest debt bubble in history. we have not done that we only pumped up more around the world. here is my prediction. obama looks okay now. i think economy by the time next election is decided in late 2016 and leaves office in january of 2017, the economy and stock market will be worse than he left it. we only created bigger bubble. bubbles burst. it is starting to burst including china. watch china. david: julie, democratic nominee, whoever that happens to be will be with president obama saying he made good policy decisions or against him? >> you can't really be against him, whoever the nominee will is -- david: will he have to run away from his policies or embrace policies. >> nominee will say policies were good but didn't go far enough. you see that with income inequality discussions across the board in democrat parties. democrats will give him credit for stopping recession but will

say he did not go far enough. david: that means bernie sanders. he would certainly go far enough, right, steve. >> the problem joe biden gets in the race, looks like he could be the democratic nominee, it is impossible to run against get e dreadful record. every poll shows americans don't want a third obama term. it has been disaster economically. melissa: that could have gone on for a while. to a story that has gotten a lot of attention, a 14-year-old muslim texas high school student was arrested and suspended for three days after school officials at macarthur high school in irving mistook the engineering clock invention for a bomb, when he brought it into school to show his teacher. if there is silver lining to all of this, president obama tweeted an invitation to him to bring his invention to the white house. also showing his support, facebook founder mark zuckerberg, inviting him, the

young inventor to fist r visit facebook's headquarters. wow. david? david: we're looking forward to this. fight night round two. republican contenders prepare to take center stage. a make it or break it moment for several candidates. also decking the halls in september. why you might already behind on your holiday shopping. say it ain't so. ♪ you're late for work.

you grab your 10-gallon jug of coffee, and back out of the garage. right into your wife's car. with your wife watching. she forgives you... eventually. your insurance company, not so much. they say you only have their basic policy. don't basic policies cover basic accidents? of course, they say... as long as you pay extra for it. with a liberty mutual base policy, new car replacement comes standard.

and for drivers with accident forgiveness, liberty mutual won't raise your rates due to your first accident. learn more by calling at liberty mutual, with coverage and deductibles, every policy is personal, customized just for you. which is why we don't offer any off-the-shelf policies. switch to liberty mutual and you could save up to $509. call liberty mutual for a free quote today at see car insurance in a whole new light. liberty mutual insurance.

melissa: whether on wall street or main street here is making money. of the two of the world's biggest beer makers after anheuser-busch, maker of budweiser making a takeover approach to sabmiller owner of miller draft. no offer officially has been

made, sabmiller is soaring on the news. christmas in september, are you kidding me? the holiday may be months away, it hasn't stopped shoppers from getting head start. one in seven respondents are shopping for holidays. not me. i bet my mother-in-law is shopping in an airport. kardashians and generallers realing in the downloads and cash. the new app which allows fans to follow their everyday lives is on pace estimated $32 million per year. that is so depressing, david. david: depressing but how do i get that figure. melissa: depressing because it is not our money. that is why it is depressing. david: county down on for second gop debate with frontrunner donald trump leading polls. which cain dates make it or break it tonight? her shades slap, former spokesperson for president george w. bush. julie roginsky and brad blakeman are back with us. we combine my two favorite things.

david: predictions and winners and losers segment. mercedes, loser, who do you think is the big loser? >> i don't want to make prediction necessarily of a loser. the one who has most to lose is governor scott walker. he had a weak performance in the first debate. he has had very inconsistent answers on issues like immigration. it really impacted his numbers. he is the one who has to really come out and shine. otherwise i really think that you will look at donor base, i could see them getting very, very nervous with scott walker if he doesn't improve his game. david: brad, what do you think about the loser? >> i think biggest loser could be possibly donald trump. he is not in his environment. not 20,000 adoring fans. he will be pinned down on policy. he will have to be specific. this is not forum for him to excel in. david: whoa. what did you call what he did the last time he was in this forum? didn't you think he did pretty well?

didn't hurt him in the polls? >> no, it did not hurt him in the polls but again he had a large audience to feed off of. this is the very specific group. >> i was at the debate in cleveland and i have to tell you, they booed him. it was a grassroots activists. a lot of republican establishments were there. it really didn't make a difference. it played so differently outside of the -- david: julie, you can't say everyone will be a loser. i know you would like to. but you can't. who is the biggest potential loser? >> i think biggest potential loser is governor chris christie, governor of new jersey. this is make-or-break. 1% in the polls in new hampshire which is his bulwark. if he doesn't do anything in the debate to stand out. he claims he will go nuclear, whatever that means. unfortunately standing next to a guy, donald trump, who perfected to going nuclear. if he doesn't shine you're looking at rick perry for him at some point.

david: julie, we saw on your picks, marco rubio. he you think will be the winner? >> donald trump will be winner. i agree with mercedes nothing he will do to hurt him at this point, unfortunately for him or the unfortunately for the republican party i should say. rubio is the winner to have the ability to shine which he didn't do so much last debate. this is a good opportunity for him. he is able to ride the cusp between establishment and grassroots. if he harnesses that tonight -- david: brad i think he is building a base in terms of being vp pick by one of the leaders, trump or someone else. who is the potential winner tonight, brad? >> i think carly won already moving up to the big boy table. she had such a stellar performance. david: we'll ban the phrase big boy table by now. >> big person table. and i think the fact that she made it and that she had a good performance last name, if she has a good performance this time i think you can count her as one. winners. david: mercedes, winners?

>> i can not believe it i agree with both bad and julie. i think fiorina-rubio moment. carly will have the opportunity to shine. she is a very strong debater. i think when is comes to senator marco rubio he is one candidate that knows how to connect with the average voter. again brings together this broader coalition. and he knows how to tell the personal narrative which i think will be important. again be watching for ben carson too. it will be a moment for him. david: that's right. i was going to pick him myself. think ben carson, again with his quiet style, such a dramatic contrast to everybody else, contrast ben carson to christie and trump and the others i think that contrast will make carson stand out. that is my -- >> carson is the most reaganesque to date. i think that is why he -- david: i think a little softer than reagan. quickly, julie. >> kasich falls into that. david: kasich as well. guys, thank you very much. melissa?

melissa: t-minus 19 hours until the fed hands down the hotly debated decision on interest rates. it's a huge day for the markets and for us. what you need to know in the full lineup coming up next. ♪

why pause to take a pill when a moment spontaneously turns romantic? and why stop what you're doing to find a bathroom? with cialis for daily use, you don't have to plan around either. it's the only daily tablet approved to treat erectile dysfunction so you can be ready anytime the moment is right. plus cialis treats the frustrating urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or any symptoms of an allergic reaction, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away.

why pause the moment? ask your doctor about cialis for daily use. for a free 30-tablet trial go to cialis.com you do all this research on the gas mileage, horsepower torque ratios. three spreadsheets later you finally bring home the one. then smash it into a tree. your insurance company's all too happy to raise your rates. maybe you should've done a little more research on them.

for drivers with accident forgiveness, liberty mutual won't raise your rates due to your first accident. see car insurance in a whole new light. liberty mutual insurance. >> it is decision day for the fed and janet yellen and company. it is the decision to raise or not to raise. that is the question. david: you don't have to miss a moment what is going on. fox business's special report kicks off at 1:00 p.m. eastern time. neil cavuto, maria bartiromo, lou dobbs, stuart varney. usually don't see them all together but they will be together tomorrow to cover this. >> that's right. liz claman will be down at the new york stock exchange. then it is our two-hour special report continues 5:00 p.m. eastern. david and i will be out there. we'll be joined by charles payne. it will be fantastic! david: guess who is coming? remember him? ron paul. who knows the fed better than ron paul.

you can disagree with the guy on a lot of things. he knows the fed inside and out. it is a huge day. could be huge for markets as well. please don't miss a moment of it. >> that does it for us. "risk & reward" starts right now. [screaming. [sirens] dierdre: these are images that most in the western world don't expect to see in europe. the migrant crisis is reaching fever pitch. hungarian police firing water cannons against refugees trying to cross the border. christian whiton former state department official. what does this signal as far as u.s. commitment to take in 10,000 migrants?