leaders who are willing to deal with radical islam. obama not willing to face reality. and from kevin, the more we fail to call. stuart: what it is, the less able we are to address it. smart viewers. neil cavuto, it is yours. >> thank you, stuart, and the dow has any dreams to finish this quarter, it would have to pile on about 1,500 points. it is trying but not going to pile 1,500 points. still looking it he worst quarter, the worst quarter in that of four years. growing indications that at least we can take some soli sole solis we are not alone. >> we have plenty of time. dugout has been getting hammered. there it is 16,200 for the quarter and there's no sugar coating how bad it's been. so then we have to get onto who are we going to blame for this? we're not going to take the blame ourselves of course, let's blame the chinese. it's simple to do that and how

many times do we get to work this and we are the say stocks are down because of china. this is the shanghai composite over the three months, falling off a cliff, the devaluation of the currency, the concerns about the economy, global economic growth in general, it has had it rough. now, if we break it off by sector, one of the interesting storks look at here is biotech. the hillary clinton tweet, we've talked so many times about that. look at these stocks, 13, 13, even up 50% decline over three months. it doesn't get much worse than that. energy stocks didn't do well either, one of the big stories, the declines in oil price. what about the declines for the oil stocks? chevron, exdown by 12. it's not all doom and gloom here. just a quick look at oil, by the way. these stocks have been down so much, even though up today, down a lot. and to kneel a little bit of perspective. history can be our guide, 2011 would be a pretty good year to

look at. terrible third quarter and then coming organizer beat the end of the year 12% fourth quarter. we can repeat that write scythe and going even further back to kneel cavuto's 1987 when the market crashed even that year, neil, as the market was positive for this year. we have time, we're going to do this. who's that, there's gasparino in the corner, those were the days. >> if you remember well, you were watching the muppets and here you are now, a big tv star. that was then. >> i love the muppets. >> thank you, connell, very, very much. as connell pointed out, you can make up for lost ground in the fourth quarter. the dow would have to advance a little more than 9.5%, but he indicated it has happened. we have seen some strong gains but, again, our last down year for the dow was 2008 when we slid about 24%. so we've had up years in the markets every year since.

can we do this year? >> well, neil, as you just pointed out, we've had some big up years. i mean the dow -- the dow's up and the s&p's up, like, 200% since 2009 until they really year. we've had huge gains in the market, a lot of people have made a lot of money, and i think they're taking those winnings off the table, taking their gains because they just don't see the fundamentals in the market at this point. they feel that they just can't trade on the fed news anymore. the stock market as you pointed out is down, like, 10% for the year, the s&p is down 11% since may. listen to this. 400 stocks on the s&p 500 are down 10% or more. 200 are down 20% or more and over 100 are down 30% or more. and, again, the fundamentals just aren'tan there. i think the market was over inflated due to the printing of money and holding interest rates at 0, we haven't seen transitional fundamentals like manufacturing in the economy,

in connection with are down, so i just don't see a lot of reason why the market would move back up at this point. >> let me ask you. when you have over half the s&p 500 stocks, technically bear market territory, in other words, they've come 20% more off their highs. do the rest follow? or does history suggest as we've seen in least some prior fourth quarters a big come back? >> well, at a macrolevel, they typically follow. what i would say, neil, is -- >> typically follow down? >> typically follow down. >> okay. >> the trend is typically your trend. they typically follow it down. neil, there's not a lot of fundamental reason why this market would turn around at this point. china, who affects our market, they're down huge and their economy's crashed, the market's crashed and janet yellen in the fed said they didn't see the circumstance where they could raise interest rates, they didn't believe our economy after six

years of holding the interest rate at 0 we couldn't handle .25 points upside in the rates. so there's not a lot of reason here to believe that the market's going to turn around and come back up in a continue bull market. long term, i believe it does great, shopper term, there's we've got some things to work through. there's no question about that. >> what is short-term? >> six to 12 months i think we could see some downside in the market here. if we just look at pe ratios on the s&p 500, i mean transitionally they're around 15, we're at 18 or 19 now. that measurement alone puts us 20% down from here, and, you know, six months to a year maybe. >> okay. thank you, thai very much. and that tends to indicate even now the level stocks might be overpriced and due for some more correcting. all right. i want to go to dan mitchell right now in washington because among some

of the catalysts for this rally is that the idea that the senate has to build a government shut down, the house is expected to follow-up on this. i should stress that this sort of push -- punts probably more of the word until december 11th. so best we delayed a day of reckoning, but it's still two and a half months off. so you think washington could still play a very unraveling effect. explain. >> well, there's two issues. the long-run issue of course is that we're going to become greece. but we don't have to worry about an immediate collapse because of that. the short-run issue that the markets are looking at, although i think they're overstating is, oh, what if we have some sort of government shut down and what about the debt limit? when his that going to happen? and i think they get people in the market too worked up about that because we have way, way more revenue that come in that need to pay interest on the debt so there will only, a default if the obama

administration wanted that and i can't imagine that they would want that. and we've had plenty of government shutdowns going all the way back to the 1970s and frankly 80% of the government stays open and the rest of it probably should be closed anyhow. so i think a lot of this is just washington postering and in my mind what's most important, what we really should be focusing on is will republicans give away the big victory they achieve when they got the budget control act spending caps back in 2011? that's what obama's trying to achieve. he wants to bluff republicans and bully republicans into giving up the spending caps so we can go back to business as usual. >> he's not the only one. there are many on the other side that would love to do the same when it comes to military. and defense-related spending. having said all of that. i think it is theater, and this drama over a shutdown ends up to be a lot of nothing. but the markets as you know a bottom on certainty, they like

at least that that doesn't look likely but i think you address a very good point. 88 times this has happened; right? where we keep pushing this. and i think that alone is a story; right? that we keep doing it to the same means and the same, you know -- so i don't know why the markets would celebrate that. >> well, here's what i try to explain when i'm talking to some of these folks up on capitol hill. you can kick the can down the road and okay. you get certainty out of that and people say, oh, there's no shut down, no debt limit fight, that's good and then you kick the can down the road again and again. but what if greece 15 years ago had some debt limit fights and government shut down fights that maybe would have created uncertainty at the time boulevard actually forced the greek politicians to agreed the problem before it became a crisis and i guess that's what advocates are about. we realize that not having

this fight dramatically increases the chances and we know that problem is there. whether you're looking at the cbo long-run forecast, the omb, the gao forecast, everyone knows we're heading toward this cliff, this brick wall, whatever you want to call it and the question is are we going to have the responsibility and the prudence to take steps today, even though the obama administration is perfectly happy to leave us on that path toward fiscal ruin. >> good point sold. markets tend to cease on things that may not always be good news. thank you. and meanwhile we are up about 128 points, so a lot of these gains are being shaved off by this he said/she said, about who's doing what in syria. if i believe some of the press reports we've got out, not only are russian planes attacking rebels, they say isis rebels in syria but word

out of the white house that so are we. do we pass each other, bump into each other? taking some of those gains away. to date on these markets and whether we can turn them around in the fourth quarter. again, it has been done. the last was in 2008, surprisingly that was not a very good year for when john mccain -- that's the problem. if you represent the opposition party, it's a good story for you. but if you are the party in even though president bush had finished his two terms be it -- i don't think jesus could have gotten elected that year. anyway we could have the same only in reverse only with the democratic nominee facing the crosswinds of the selloff that could be substantial. after all, carl icahn said it will be substantial. i've got katherine with me. charlie gasparino on whether this could be for that democratic nominee hillary

clinton probably, the consensus panel, although i don't buy that. bad news. what do you think? >> the stock market is not your greatest indicator of who wins the white house. sorry, neil. it did well during george hw bush's time in office. >> i'm talking about the fall. the fall snapshot. if you were in the middle of the free -- >> next year? >> right. >> still not a great indicator. there are better indicators. i think john mccain when he suspended his campaign and broadcasted to washington because he was going to fix everything. >> that was a meltdown. >> right. that was a lose almost 800 points in one day when the tarp originally didn't pass and i think that's when he called off his campaign and then he looked like a man in the corner and -- >> even if he hadn't done that. i think it would have been the same. >> actually rather rational that the stock market doesn't indicate who's going to win an election because politicians can't control the stock market, they can't fikes fix

it if it's broke and they can't break it if it's working. >> if we had the '87 crash in the fall of '88, would michael caucus then beaten vice president bush. >> i think there are a lot of people in the electet who think. when things are bad, people say time for a change but this relies on having an alternative that looks nonscary. and it's not clear that the mccain option, for instance, was a nonscary option. >> that's a very good point. what do you think, charlie? you reported that the camp is very nervous. >> you guys are looking at the stock market way too superficially to say it has no impact on the election. it does in different ways. the reason why it had -- >> by the way, they said that, i didn't. >> i agree. >> just afraid. >> when the stock market goes

down to 6,000; right? from 14,000 to 6,000 in year, that pretends an economic collapse and usually the party in power gets hammered for that. and that's what happened in 2008. in '87, a little bit more difficult. remember the economic collapse that occurred after the '87 crash took a couple of years really to seep in and, as a matter of fact. >> and, by the way, by the time the campaign was on -- >> and you did have ross, you know, seeping -- pulling a lot of spot away from george hw bush. >> well, now you're up to '92. >> now we're up to '92. this time around you have the problem that you have, it's not the government shutdowns, it's the market worrying about two things. the fed not raising interest rates, do they know something we don't know? is the economy going to get rates? and if they do, does that mean they're raising in the global slow down? >> if this is indicative of a

slow down, the narcotics speak that, this year that everything's going to slow down, that can't be good for any party; right? >> not good. >> no. it's not good. i think i will agree with charlie to the extent that if the stock market reflects how your individual feels in this country, if the change in payrolls is negative, if you -- you know, month over month you have smaller number of jobs created, things like that. if you have people who are trying to find work and can't find work. but your best -- the stock market doesn't indicate that at all. >> it's significant. i think 1929 event that carries over for years. >> the best indicator to nate, the work that was done back in '27, the with best that reflects the outcome of the election, number one was the manufacturing index. the s&pes return was 34 out of 43 in the nine months during election year. >> why do i get a sense that people are turning off their

tv sets across the country. >> this is a topic. >> do you want a simple answer, neil, here's the simple answer. the stock market takes into account the price to traject what the future economy is going to be like. if the stock market goes down, the future economy generally from sophisticated investors and they're not betting on ism and things that are -- >> so -- >> the same corporate earnings are going to be less robust. >> and the stock market's rigged so they're not going to look to that. >> what they agree to it would be noteworthy for politician to take note. >> i think it has to be specifically noteworthy, and i think the idea that, you know, a little up, a little down, let's look at this. it's fun actually to do that kind of prognostication but the fact is it's a very fuzzy thing. if people feel poor. >> the market goes down 10,that's not going to be fuzzy. >> let me add one thing. at this point in the election we're more than a year away. >> right. >> it can dictate what the market does, maybe who wins

the nomination. look at trump and how he responded to what happened to china. >> could you look at tomorrow's assignment as to what the indian ism and get back to me? >> i'm coming back in the next hour, so you better bulk up, because i'm coming for you. >> i can't wait for that. do you know the success of john boehner, you don't have to be a member of congress to apply for the job. anyone can. i nominate gasparino only because it would be entertaining. technology empowers us to achieve more.

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he laughed and apparently said he would not. that aquarium confirms what his wife was telling me yesterday that they're over all of us. on the left of your screen john kasich, he speaks very well when combined first and second choice. his poll numbers have moved up a little bit in iowa and emerges oftentimes as a consensus wrap-around candidate for republicans, that doesn't necessarily mean anything, but it could be worthy to follow. foreman senator trent with us right now. senator, i believe kasich is the guy you're supporting; right? >> that's correct. i've served in the house with john, and he was key player when we got the balance budget and actually created a surplus working with pete and bill clinton, as a matter of fact. neil: he was the chief at the time; right? >> yeah. he did a great job, he's been in the private sector and did some work at

fox and now the governor of ohio. and gone goth a disposition that reminds me of reagan, but a lot of it is i know him well, we're friends, and i think he brings the whole package to the, you know, the campaign to be president. i think he's the adult in the room, and he'll have a -- i think good staying power in being -- hopefully will be the nominee. neil: senator, the funny disposition in the evening his case a very good track record. >> yeah. neil: and growing popularity in his home state, something that chris christy would crave right now. >> right. neil: it doesn't necessarily get you to the finish line. >> no. neil: and i'm wondering what you make of that in that despite poll numbers, it's donald trump who is still on top. what do you make of this. >> well, you know, i think, you know, the time will tell. i think -- i don't think he'll be in the final hunt for the nomination. but when you've got donald trump and outsiders in the republican party and bernie sanders in democratic party, it tells you the frustration

out of the american people. they don't like the dysfunction in washington. they want a president that will work with congress, that will quit trying to, you know, do the job i think unconstitutional with executive orders. we're in all kind of trouble around the world, every place you go we've lost steam. so i think people are really expressing frustration, and they're going to want somebody that will come to washington with attitude and say, look, we want something done. i'm tired of people in washington and around the country cursing darkness, some have to talk about the better tomorrow and i think kasich has the better ability to do that. stuart: with john boehner going and kevin mccarthy is the front runner. although there are fears if he got the job, he wouldn't hold onto it very long. and i was not aware of the choice has to be a congressman at all. >> yes. neil: just like when you do your search,. >> right. neil: he and even me or a cardinal or bishop or priest,

so i know they've never gone outside that dish when select popes. do you ever do that when selecting speaker. >> no. not really but i was up on the hill yesterday, as a matter of fact, and i suggested, well, maybe i should run for speaker, and i met a deafening silence, so maybe i won't do that. but, look, being speaker in the house or leader in the senate is a very demanding exhausting job. it just grinds you down you've got to deal with every issue, every day for weeks on end. so, you know, as i said in my book it's like herding cats, cats won't herd. but, first of all, i think john boehner did the very best he could, he was great in how he stepped aside, but i think mccarthy is an outstanding leader, i've known him closely for the last few years, worked his way up the whether i know knows how to do it, and i think he will bring a change

in the dynamics. i think you will see more movement in the house of representatives in a positive way. neil: senator, always a pleasure. thank you. >> thank you, neil. neil: all right. in the meantime we are getting a little bit more from this mitt romney who said that he said he will also support the gop nominee but he doesn't think it's going to be donald trump. that is the closest to what they call a slap i guess. but when his wife and romney were here yesterday talking about her latest book, she did seem to imply in the strongest terms that whoever the nominee is, they cannot engage in 3rd grade behavior. i think she was talking about name-calling, i think by extent she might have been referring to donald trump, but i think it's fair to say that mr. and mrs. romney not a fan of his. we'll have more after this

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>> it is the fox business alert. you heard it before.

mainstream media coverage alert. i swear, folks, every time i see someone come out with a big tax cut plan, the media, the media coverage is something to the effect can pay for it, can't pay for it, can't pay for it. never have i heard a big spending initiative. top newspapers i cover. the fact of the matter is this later sort of competition to cut taxes has the same kind of headlines and ebay. the same type of criticism and scrutiny never comes to how much a government program costs and whether we can find a way to pay for it. again, i am not the only one noticing it. you know, steve, the latest criticism is the donald trump and his plan to dramatically cut taxes. bringing them down to for rates. one of those rates is zero. so substantial.

falling on the heels of other candidates who have offered similar tax cuts. none of them are paid. none of them are revenue neutral. they are all a waste of time. >> i want to give you a statistic. ronald reagan had that highest income tax rate. all the way down to 28%. that is a two thirds reduction. you know what happened from federal revenues from 1980-1990, they doubled. they doubled. the biggest increase received. >> you and i also know that it brings enormous revenues. unfortunately -- democrats do the same thing.

i wish there was a built in law. you will not touch this. that is neither here nor there. >> are you suggesting a lock box? neil: donald trump, in particular has come under some heat. at least before the revenues start building. this idea of a 10% tax. all of that 2.000000000000 plus a broad that companies hold. you could be on your way. >> ringing that money back. now you are talking about a trillion dollars more in the american economy. what that will mean for investment, i love that idea about the plan. especially when you combine it with the tax.

today, we have the highest business tax rate in the world. if you cut that rate from the highest rate in the world to the lowest or close to the lowest, my goodness, you will see all of those businesses move back in. neil: they never wear that. then they calm. it is always fun, my friend. think you very, very much. >> by the way, i think you should throw your hat in for speaker of the house. neil: i do not know which one it will be. thank you, my friend.

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on what we pay for oil and a lot of other stuff. >> the track of this storm will slow into the golf coast to mexico. even though it will not get into the gulf of mexico, it will affect imports. next week, we will see a big drop in u.s. imports. we are not as reliant as we were before. not seeing a big market impact at this time. we have to be very careful with this refineries. those refineries, if they go down or they get hit with a lot of flooding, that will make it potentially spike. the other thing you have to keep in mind, sometimes they can

actually turn out to be a bearish event for prices. the refiners are not impacted. the demand for oil may drop. if that happens, the price of oil could actually go down. neil: we are an hour ahead of him. i have charlie gasparino here. i think that the bush folks are seizing on something here in regards to twitter. >> i think what they are seizing on is the fact that one of the reasons why they have been pretty muted and encountering donald trump's tax, every other name in the book, he has been pretty muted. that has been essentially it here and because they have calculated inside the bush campaign how much negative edge trump does without spending any money through his various

sources. twitter, tv, other parts of social media. when you attack him and he attacks you back, he is generating $25 million worth of free ads. that is how much they have calculated. keep their mouth shut. think about it. they do not have the money to go against something like that. he, without spending a dime, when he gave out linsey grams telephone number, he played it on tv. tv appearances on it. he went on social media. it generated a huge, it generated ads without demanding money. him saying what he wanted to say. that is one of the reasons we are very close with the bush campaign. jeb bush, as of now, is late

back. he was in business. i am not saying that this is good or bad. i think he was a great businessman. when you are in business this long, there is a lot of stuff that will be there. one of the brilliant things about donald trump is that he helps understand -- it is kind of interesting that a guy that is six years old gets a social media and impact of stuff being repeated into the various types of media is. it is brilliant. a lot of the stuff that he does is purely to generate ad time. if he comes after you like he has jeb, rubio -- neil: where did this start?

i think he goes after people who are a threat. he has kind of laid off carly furey know lately. if you watch -- neil: the same thing. you could suffer the same thing. >> they are afraid to go after him right now. >> anthony. [laughter] they would not deny it. the fact of the matter is it could be a counter indicator. neil: are the bush people hoping that this whole outside the box fixation with nontraditional states just emerge?

>> i think two things here. anthony, i love him. he is an established republican. i think the established republicans are now moving more and more to the jeb camp as opposed to the rubio campaign they are hoping he burned himself out. before he goes after him in a negative at. it is so expensive to go after him. jeb raised $120 million in that super pack. that is a lot of money. he needs to raise a lot more. do a tweet. to do some other things on social media. neil: it is amazing. it is tough to go after somebody like that. neil: you do not necessarily have to be a u.s. congressman to apply for that speaker job.

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neil: looking at the dow right now. of 122 points. ninety points for the high of the day. among some of the left, confused about what is going on in syria. you may have heard that the russians have launched a tax. on behalf of the aside government. we have indicated no confirmation for that. we are reporting our own attack on isis revels in serious. the markets look at that. they do not get any of it. they do not know what the heck is going on.

i can tell you, in large part, any noise that shows we are not getting a clear read, typically, markets will pull us on that. they did get a clear read today. the senate approving a measure that will push us back, at least this whole drama to december 11. considering what is the same. do not know how that will go. congressman daniel webster, pushing it to the brink. he is a candidate for speaker banners job. before you dismiss him, remember he challenged speaker boehner before. we probably could have pushed that to a second pallet. very good to have you, congressman.

>> good to be here. neil: how're you doing? >> doing great. neil: making this display to the house, to the senate, essentially. what do you make of it? >> we need to have a principle -based member driven congress. the power base congress usually creates crisis at the end, as opposed to picking up the most important issues first. there is no real option except for what is out there. you have one decision to make as opposed to many options. i did that in the florida legislature. i turned the place around. we became more of a principle -based legislature. if you have an idea that is not based on who you are, what party you are in, based on what it says. you experience this. you knew out of both sides, they

have complimented you on that regard. that is the kind of ammunition that would hurt you. more conservative members that may seize on that. anything that debbie shoulders same positively, they are not. >> she says i do not agree with that. the point is this. everyone has benefited. when everyone has benefited, the public takes notice. we have the same kind of numbers

congressman. we told you a little bit earlier about this confusion into whose striking who in serious. now, john kerry suggesting we stop doing what we are doing. indicating that the united nations, the man is fruitless. not going to stop their operations in theory and airspace. look at this. russia holds its own air campaign. that is weird in and of itself. we will do it. we are not criticizing russia for essentially doing what we are doing.

the only difference is we are both striking the guys we seem to think are the bad guys. we do not agree. russia says we are striking the wrong guy. all i know, in a rather restricted airspace, you have two superpowers whose planes are bombing people close to each other. that is weird. ♪

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neil: it is getting a little weird. oil prices right now, they have been all over the map. look at the dow. the gains have been sliced in half. this tends to be a market that tries to climb back. there is confusion out of syria. i cannot imagine that it is

helping matters any. russia was attacking rebel isis positions. then, if friend us. don't you even think of doing the same or getting planes in here. we later came out with a statement saying that we were indeed conducting targeted airstrike against isis. then, john kerry coming and saying you do not do that and you do not to tell us. we are in that neck of the woods and we will not listen to them. my immediate confusion on this and that is why i am so happy to have mister collins here. something very interesting to me. could you imagine those in the neighborhood. >> absolutely. we had an incident not too long ago when turkey came into the

war. part of the reason turkey wants to get involved this they want to conduct airstrikes on the kurds. the kurds, excuse me, the turks came into the air operation over there, the conflicting. we need all the american planes out of the airspace. now russian planes. what is more is, that type of toxic atmosphere, you could have someone shooting down the wrong plane. >> we have american planes flying over there. we have some british special operation troops of the robles

fight isis. there is a recipe for an absolute disaster. i think that building was a tactical player. there is some very political reasons. neil: let him. >> from a tactical sense, if we think that our reputation is fallen in that region right now, wait until the first russian force over isis. from a geopolitical sense it is based on oil. what better region.

neil: keeping an eye on this. also keeping an eye on the final three hours of trading. it looks like we will lose substantially. think we should do that in the fourth quarter? >> we will see

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. neil: all right. take a look at the up sign there, it is up, but used to be up about 250 points feathery day, a gain is still a deign, and the markets try to claw their way back, they somehow cannot sustain this gains. and, again, this -- no matter how it finishes today, unless it's really a blowout buying spree, we're going to be down about 1,500 points this quarter. we are going to be county in excess of 10%, 11% this quarter. you can claw your way back, and we have seen that in prior fourth quarters. not all the time but a lot of the time. but charles payne knows that

the worst quarter in four years is going to get hard to get positive. 2008 was our last down year for these markets, what do you think. >> yeah. we won't get it today. i mean right now there's probably some heavy betting we'll close in the red across the board today. neil: that does happen. you're a good market technician. >> you've had a lot of smart people on today and had and they hit on the same theme. this momentum to the downside is hard to break. it won't happen per se. neil: yeah. >> and i'm not sure if it's a main event but once it runs out of steam to the upside, here's selling. and people get really nervous . neil: i was watching one stock market watch that we have a bear market going on that over half of the s& s&p s&p 500 stocks are in bear market territory, and i think usually not all the time but usually the rest will soon follow when it gets to be that

-- what the health care is going on. i'm going to make sure that charlie gasparino is over eating a steak and doing interviews. >> one of the best human beings you can find. in the meantime i was just calculating this, i just made up this number, actually i didn't make it up. it came from sources. we've lost in the four in this third quarter globally $11 trillion in stock market value. now, that might be part of it, might be you. so are you going to go shopping when you get your quarterly statement when you see on paper you lost a lot of ground? it's always a big psychological battle. scott martin on that and whether it affects you this holiday. what do you think, scott >> neil, i think it's going to work out okay. let's take a little trip back into the past. the last few years frankly predictions for holiday sales have been pretty dire and, in fact, they've timely surprised

in a lot of cases to the upside. now, don't forget. if you're a retailer, 20 to 25% of your annual sales typically come in the holiday period. so to see that this has a little bit of importance would be stating it smallly. but the consumer is still in pretty good shape, they paid down a lot of debt, housing prices are still in pretty good shape, i think they're going to step up big here >> all right. we're going to get into that in a second with gerri willis. but what about the this idea you have a rough third quarter, we can still pull it out, we did it last year, we did it in 2013, we did it in 2011 where the dow would post the double-digit -- it didn't affect last year, we would have been up anyway. but we would have to pick up 1,500, 1,600 points of the dow to do that; right? >> quite a few and to your point you were correct, though. in october things looked nasty, at least to the half of

the month and rallied in the fourth quarter and that set up for this year. and as an investor if you have a decent time horizon, stocks where still where you should be. so trying to time the market, get in and get out or freaking out about a bad month or two in your 401(k), yes, check your asset allocation, it's probably not the best thing to do as far as freaking out and going to all cash >> real quickly. i want to get your market reaction to this. remarks reporters today, the u.s. military has, in fact, been in touch with this russian counterparts, or seeing russia ramp up its support for president assad by going after presumably these rebel, russia says isis positions, but it's too to tell what had were aiming at. and collins, former green beret that it's total confusion on that airspace because you have multiple parties with emissions who

could bump into each other. it's confusing. >> it's confusing, and it's destabilizing. i mean putting it back to the market, neil, that's not exactly what a troubled market wants to see; right? geopolitical risk. what i would tell the investor regarding this particular incident or advancement by russia, take a look at the things like the u.s. dollar, take a look at the u.s. bonds, in time of stithe globally, especially when it comes to political issues, those asset classes tend toll todd pretty well >> all right, thank you, scott martin. united advisors. back to gerri willis, she's been monitoring the affects and very good at this over the years just how you feel and whether how you feel translates into what you buy or don't buy. and i do know, and i think you were mentioning earlier, gerri, that people are going to get their mutual and 401(k) statements and they're not going to look too good >> no. it doesn't look too good.

down 9%, and people get it in the mail or online and they may be feeling it in the pit of their stomach right now and i think a lot of americans are concerned about their 401(k)s. but here's the reality that's it's like a different than it has been in a number of years. so a lot of people who are close to retirement are putting even more of their money in stocks and why? because their financial advisors are telling them to do that. and why is it a? because returns on near money investments, money market funds, bond funds have been so low because interest rates have been so low that more and more people have their money in the stock market, that means the reaction is going to be worse, not better. >> so just when individuals were finally being to go to play in this party and they were largely out of it, now they could be pushed out. >> they could be pushed out. i think, you know, it's interesting to see how people react. some folks won't do anything tall. they'll barrel look, keep putting money in, which is as well the right thing to do because let's face it, as

stocks fall, lower and lower prices, the right time to buy, but some folks will look at it and say i just cannot take this anxiety and i'm going to sell now. i'm waiting for numbers for the end of the quarter to find out what -- how people have been react over the last several weeks. we don't have it yet. it will be interesting to see just how people will report i >> do you think it will affect their shopping? >> yeah. i think how wealthy you are affects your shopping. that's what we've seen for the last couple of years; right? >> so you're not going to be very generous with me this year. usually you have large -- >> maybe a little box of doughnuts. would that be okay? >> no, large processed meats. all right. thank you, gerri willis. all right. now here hillary clinton, you're hearing all of this market hiccupping and this slow down. imagine hearing this from your union buddies. we're going to talk to donald trump. yikes. you've got to wonder. ford o'connell on that.

what do you make of that, ford? i cannot imagine them jumping to hillary clinton but they're clearly sending the signal here that they're not even impressed with her recent to go after cadillac health care plans because to them it seems to me too little too late. what do you make of this? >> well, it's a clear sign to date that the hillary clinton core nation isn't exactly lightning the world on fire. it's enough that they want to wait for joe biden but the fact that they want to have a sit downtown donald trump, this is the first time in 30 years that the teamsters were entertaining the idea of talking to a republican. so hillary has a lot to do, they're hacked off about keystone, about the cadillac tax, they're hacked off about ttp. i'm happy for them to come over to the republican side any time >> obviously that could be very good news, and mark joins us now, democratic strategist. do you think what ford is saying, though, that she is sending mixed signals, the

unions don't like that. whether it's >> yeah. >> whether it's an oil deal that she's not a fan of or her husband's trade deals, which they deem were bad for them. that she just can't seem to win. are you there? >> yes. >> can you hear me? >> now i can. yes. >> all right. well, is she in trouble, what do you think? >> well, i do think that it's a little early in the campaign, it's not uncommon for unions to hold off and not endorse during the primaries at all, in fact, and yet she's got support from two major unions, the aft, the teacherrers, and the machinists >> but we're going to talk to donald trump, that's pretty weird >> yeah. but also -- >> let marge. >> well, we don't know what they have to say to trump but

we can guess based on what thibault: saying to him in las vegas, his is one of the few hotels on the strip that's not unionized and filing labor grievances and complaints, so they probably have a lot to say to trump, but i support you might not be what they're coming to say. >> what do you think? >> i think here's what some, and understand something else. it's not the teamsters, the isc would not have endorsed hillary either. >> but it is still early. and that -- it could be waiting to see who is the nominee, it's not a guarantee it will be her. >> you're right about that but let me say this. it's a very important campaign for -- >> the union. >> yeah. exactly. so the fact that they're not exactly in your camp yet either is a little bit of a troubling sign because this was supposed to be a coronation for hillary and right now people are having second thoughts because of all the badge with the e-mail and

now we're talking about joe biden. who would have ever thunk that deal. >> i don't know anyone wants a core nation. >> to you, marge, do you think some of them are holding out maybe hopefully for joe biden candidacy? and they they go to him? will do that i don't know. i don't think he's going to run. i think he's made it pretty clear with the most recent interview, colbert and others that he's not prosecuted to do that right now. >> i don't know look at his schedule, it looks like a candidate schedule. he's -- >> marge doesn't want joe biden to run because if joe biden runs, you're going to have a real split in the democratic party. understand something. bernie sanders is not going to win this nomination because there's only so many hyper educated white progressives. this is about joe biden saying i'm going to carry kerry on the legacy and square the own narrative. >> foreperson run, would that be bad for her? >> you know, i think competition is healthy. we're not going to have a field split into 16, 17 parts, but i think in the end hillary will win the nomination and

the white house as well, and i don't think biden is going to run. >> well, neil, to your point hillary is busy bashing biden on the campaign trail, they like competition but hillary doesn't neptune competition because while she's great on paper, she has not proven herself to be a great candidate on the campaign trail and heaves this over and over. >> i apologize for some of the audio problems we seem to have. and the senate has passed the bill to avert the government shut down, it's going to go to the house and a lot of people saying it's perfunctory. i don't know. more after this

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>> all right. up on the day right now the dow getting a little bit more scrutiny than it does, this is the last day of a horrible month and

horrible quarter, they just want to know how horrible, they're hoping how horrible, it will still be the worst quarter likely in four years and to the final three months of the year we've had some incredible come backs in the last three months of the year. but this would be really incredible if we were to go even after this quarter. so we'd have quite a climb at 1,500-plus point climb to do it. now, one of the things that would seem to be productive yesterday, and we had a bit of a buying enthusiasm when the white house indicated in the middle of the day that it looked like we could avoid a government shut down. now, markets don't take sights on these issues, they just blur on uncertainty and uncertainty something they don't like. now we had the senate passing, this was expected but a relief a bill to shut down and if you understand the government through december 11 i believe. and that really just kicked the can down the road. the measure now goes to the house where it's expected to pass.

but remember the house is the home of speaker baron, and it was speaker payne who up and quit this whole back and forth was conservative members. that might have played a role. that and meeting with the pope. congressman jordan on how this is done and how it is received in the house. everyone seems to think it's a foregone conclusion, congressman that the house votes for this, lives to fight another day i guess the middle of september. what do you say. >> well, we'll see. it doesn't get past the question you're not going to get to an organization what planned parenthood did. we know they did something wrong, we got them on tape and a picture's worth a thousand and words we've seen the terrible repulsive things they've done. but it looks like it will pass with the democrats buying large, giving the majority the votes. >> now, what about the you? you're among those, you try to move the ball forward, get any time someone moves the ball forward, the left is suspicious, right is

suspicious, or groups are saying it's our way or the highway. i don't know the proper person or role or view to espoused. i do know that we keep visiting this same thing. government on the brink, avoid a shutdown at the last second, do you think whoever is picked to replace john boehner continues his middle ground approach to avoid this sort of thing or takes a different tact? >> well, it better be different, neil. 60% of republican voters feel betrayed by republican leadership in washington so we better take a different approach. >> is kevin mccarthy a different approach. >> well, we will see. we haven't elected a speaker yet and we don't have an election for a while. >> that's not what i asked. since he is very close to john boehner, some of your more conservative members saying he's boehner like. >> if he is the speaker, let's hope he changes. if he's not the speaker, we're going to have an election. two months ago when the first

video came out, everyone knows what they did is despicable, if we were talking about it every day. frankly if we exerted as much influence and commitment to this debate as we did the past in the trade prom ocean authority, do you remember that debate? it was all hands on deck. if we had that same effort here, we would be in a much better position today and we would do what taxpayers want us to do, take money from the planned parenthood and if you understand the levels that everyone agreed to. that's all we're doing, that's as common sense as it gets. >> do you want on run for speaker? do you want to -- >> i do not. >> why not? >> my role is to -- i think help the conservatives in our house, push things in this direction and help encourage leadership to do just what i described. elevate the debate and mostly focus on just a fundamental thing. keep our promises. do what we told the voters we were going to do when they gave us the privilege so serve here in the united states congress. not that difficult and do what you said you would do. . >> all right. thank you very much, my

friend. very good having you. >> thank you, no. >> in the meantime take a look at the wall abroad. we're up again. so these snapshots, snapped or shot. but read as it may, we're seeing the dow in the steady advance. you've got another two and a half hours to close out this quarter and this month, and it's been an awful period. but, again, wall street as to reckon itself with this. no matter how it ends today, the last down year it experienced was back in 2008 if you think about it, the middle of the melt down, stocks about 34%. since that time, in 2009, 2010, 2011, '12, '13, and '14. each year the markets have been up. could this since the be the first time since the melt down? more after this

>> all right. we're up about 143 points on the dow but look at this. you would think there would be a great unwinding in treasury securities or people would be saying all right. this quality, we can ease up a little bit.

they're not. still about what it was yesterday, still very, very low. so while they're enjoying this brief run up in stocks, whatever you call it, they're not exactly getting out of bonds or getting out of treasury securities. that i think is covering your bets. liz macdonald is here because she follows all these developments, including the imf, the international monetary fund, practically begging the federal reserve not to raise rates. >> that's right. since june christine at the imf saying don't do it. do not raise rates. raise rates in 2016. not now. >> why? >> they're saying because reportedly the debt load in emerging markets, 18 trillion. so that enemies these emerging markets that's up since 2004 levels. the 4 trillion. so they have basically added, like, three japans to their debt load. >> so these rates would --

would take that demolish them. we're talking chilly, turkey, china, brazil. so we've been janet said we're not going to raise rates now because of problems overseas, that i think is what she is of course referring to. so when -- how long can you telegraph a rate hike without actually doing it before your credibility gets hit? . >> they've all -- governors and presidents make up, 10 of them; right? now, they've all right. indicated before the end of the year they're going to do it. >> they haven't though. >> let me ask you. what if they don't. >> well, they indicated they were going to do it by september, and they didn't do it. >> true. >> so here's the thing. you know, the -- really concerned about the debt unwhined in overseas markets and we can't under estimate that. >> do they have went to that as a reason. >> janel yellen is already doing that. turmoil in emerging markets. so, again, again, we see that the worry if the dollar strengthens and you're going to see u.s. treasuries continue to go down because there seems to be a possible flight coming out of the

emerging markets by investors into u.s. treasuries. when you consider that 75% of it economic output is debt driven in the emerging economies from 50%, that's a big deal. >> they're all a ticking time bomb. >> yeah. that is the big deal and i'm not saying ear at 1998 debt crisis, it could be a swarm or real contagion. >> you're talking the thailand currency crisis. >> yeah. it could be more than one. >> but you're talking about hikes, no matter what they do, stocks go down. >> yeah. it could be turmoil but, listen, usually on average it's -- since 19a, rate hike cycle, it's two years later we've had a recession and, you know, the stock markets gone up within a year's time. that's according to the averages. but we're in a nigh world right now because of the debt loads.

>> so asked does this go back to the 100-year war or -- >> we're talking the '50s. not, just talking. >> the person i sat behind in school and used to copy everything. thank you very much. >> sure. >> what do you remember carl icahn was with me and talking about a bubble and lizzie touched on it. it extended to anything interest rate dependent we've got a bubble of bonds and bubble of seeming low interest rates and a bubble in real estate as a result. the guy behind the million-dollar lifting who says this particular billionaire is wrong. he's next

. .

neil: we book a lot of big guest the on this show. tell you when we start talking about stars, the star of million dollar listing, josh would be here, people stopped in their tracks. yeah, yeah. we heard about the vice president. we heard about the former president. where the heck is josh? any ways, big deal. bigger deal apparently than carl icahn who is with me yesterday. he is afraid we have real estate bubble growing. interest rates will go kablooy. end of the world as we know it. he didn't say quite like that. worried about the boomlet we're seeing in housing turn around. are you? >> icahn is one of the smartest men on earth. no one is disagreeing with that ucla school of business, andersen, said we're in beginning of a market.

bubbles happen once every seven years. there is no rule of thumb. if you look over history, seven years. they believe that the market just rebounded in 2012. where as someone like carl icahn it started in 2010. i happen believe somewhere in the middle. neither here nor there. i never heard of three-year cycle. we're technically three or four years in the cycle. i think we have time. neil: he talked about how frothy things are getting, flipping property thing. >> it's a little crazy. new york is definitely, a little toned down. i feel that, because i'm looking to buy an apartment in new york. i remember what it was like even three months ago. it has gotten a little quiet. let's talk about los angeles. los angeles has become one of the hottest destinations. it always has been, not prices per foot even palm beach or hamptons. these are seasonal locations, hamptons, palm beach. you're paying 3, $4,000 a foot, in place you can only have three

months of the year. only make this is sense we were only getting $2,000 a foot in los angeles. people are figuring that out. people are putting money in los angeles. neil: who is doing that? >> when you come from country like china or greece, you have a ton of money. scared what is happening with the economy, you want to park it somewhere safe. where do you go, park it in the united states. what are two biggest markets. new york and los angeles. apartments on fifth avenue being bout, co-ops through corporations are being bout by foreign investors. it is just a place to park the money. neil: that can't be a harbinger of good things if there is not real substantial demand building up, let's say among americans? >> there are a lot of americans buying these -- neil: million dollar listing, who are they? >> literally million dollars or saying multimillion-dollar house? i don't know. your show. who are they? >> unfortunately million dollars doesn't buy you much. neil: a closet, right.

>> with most transactions i did this year have been cash. 90% of the them. neil: how many americans? >> most of them. neil: really? >> yeah. big, big sales, tend to be russians, foreigners. these are second houses for people. and i don't think that market will ever really get touched. it will stay for a while. 2 to 3 million-dollar range where you want to focus, that is what most people want to afford, dictates market. neil: those people are paying cash or a lot are paying cash. >> which is wild, right? you would think they would be loans. what are their ages? >> two to three, 20s, 30s. neil: wow. >> people making money now. neil: yeah. >> people have money. the market is good. neil: you don't think it is getting a little too giddy? idea that l.a. might have some catching up to do. part of his premise, josh, interest rates are unnaturally low. that people are, when they're

this low you could invest in anything it is like shooting fish in a barrel. his argument is we're getting spoiled by something not justified, not so much by housing but means you buy homes. >> a lot of time people hear things like that, what carl icahn is saying. it scares them. i'm not saying avoid the reality but, when you hear it all the time people start to believe it. people get trigger shy. they don't start buying houses. they stop. if something is good, keep it going. when there is a real problem and, then let's talk about it. but right now, we're doing fine. everybody is buying houses. everybody is making money. there is more jobs being put out every month in the united states. neil: but aren't you skewed by bicoastal kind of view? >> 100%. that's why, having me on show i'm not qualified to tell you about something in middle of the country. i'm last person to tell you. i'm specifically talking about high-end markets. i can tell you what is happening

in high-end markets. in high-end markets are good, usually low end markets are good. they follow. neil: personal question. when you're on "million dollar listing," you assess someone, you're a leadser, you have no possible way to be even looking at this property and i don't want to deal with you? >> what i started to do do, for many years i didn't do, which was mistake, i vet them ahead of time. neil: how do you vet them? >> very simple. ask them for financial statement. sometimes, you know what, you take a risk. some don't want to do that. i don't want to waste my time either. i don't want to sit around, show everybody 10 houses and then they oh, when, one time i did that. had a beach house. took these people. thought they were legit. oh, we'll buy this when we win the lottery. that is what they said afterwards. neil: next. very good seeing you. josh flagg, million dollar listing star. >> thank you. neil: stopped in a lot of places here. all those big stars, scoot down the bench.

we're looking at a big stock market. a lot of young people josh referring, might be catalyst for a lot of that cash, their investments in stock. not so much say this quarter. probably not so much this year. but overlast couple years, you've been richly rewarded. what they're hoping at corner of wall and broad whether that gets to be the case final three months of the year. stick around. you're watching fox business.

>> it is fox business brief time. i'm connell mcshane. we'll go straight to the markets this time around, final trading day of the quarter. we were talking about how brutal a quarter it has been. this is pretty nice day with the dow up nearly 150 points. one of the things you notice, many of the groups of stocks, individual stocks leading us lower have bounced back today. a lot of metals fall into that group. talked earlier about oil. oil stocks, chevron and exxon are up today. look at them for the quarter, it has been brutal in terms of the declines. that is how we started the show, talking how they're down 20, 30, or more, even 50% for some of these stocks. this is biotech we look at. down by 50% for one stock. that is the other storied group we've had so far this quarter. all told your number today, 11 trillion. that is how much market value

lost in the third quarter. fourth quarter has to be better. rough today. neil is right back.

neil: did anybody die? this could come down to of the lawsuits piling up against volkswagen on the software implant if you will in 11 million vehicles that

disguised emissions relief. we'll go to two lawyers, whether that case could be made. people actually had died as a result of this. randy cell enand seth. what do you think, randy. you have to prove that, right? >> legally you do, but in reality you really don't. what is going to happen here, volkswagen is radioactive. they have zero credibility. it has been pretty well-established this was not a mistake. this was an outand out lie. if i'm volkswagen i want to put this in my rear view mirror. i don't want to test people coming forward saying they got sick as a result of diesel emissions. right or wrong, legality has zero to do with it. neil: the question in this case i don't know that people have died but would be very tough to prove. not like gm case with faulty switch 124 people died we know of to date. here it's a little more

slippery, isn't it? >> it is. that is the problem. i agree volkswagen is radio tack tiff and very -- radioactive and bad corporate actor. the burden of evidence can not be met. in this case you have to have element of causation for courts for you to come in and prove the issue. neil: how do you prove death? randy, in this case, this person sued or their family sued because they're convinced having driven in one of these cars they died as a result? >> and of course i agree with seth, but again, it is a very low burden. in other words, there is a question of law and as a plaintiff you have to survive volkswagen's to dismiss. volkswagen will move to dismiss. there is no causation. you can't prove anything. all the plaintiff has to do is show some plausible claim. the evidence is viewed in the light most favorable to the plaintiff. for example, if my father got sick and i owned a volkswagen

with diesel engine, if i'm volkswagen do i really want to test that? if my kid has lung issues and now the lung issues are exacerbated? neil: do you want to potentially multiply by 11 million complaints? >> the problem is, i agree with you on day one, on motion to dismiss. that is legal standard. at that point, no pun intended car stalls. once you state the cause of action you have to back it up with evidence and there is no gas in the tank. to have causation element you have to trace emissions from volkswagen car goes into the lung of the victim. that will be very difficult. i think there is a legal mechanism that slams volkswagen in this case, not on mechanism issue we're talking about here. justice department will come down very hard on volkswagen. criminal division is looking at this. i think may even be looking at indictment. they will not get a pass but not in terms of this civil suit. neil: real quick? >> they want this in their rear view mirror. put it behind them. move forward.

neil: not multibillion-dollar settlement with gm? >> do what you got to do. neil: thank you guys, very much. the search is on for new speaker of the house. what if i told you do not need to be congressman or woman, don't need to serve in the body at all? same thing with the pope. cardinals typically choose a pope. they don't have to choose a cardinal oar bishop. from what i understand they don't have to choose a priest. what do you make of that? if the next speaker isn't from the house, who is he? who is she? who could it be? after this.

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>> boo! >> the power of reagan compels you. >> god forbid. neil: it could happen. it could happen. apparently, in the laws that are those of the house, representatives, the next speaker needn't be from the house of representatives. a congressman or woman, they can select anybody. now they have never done that, but, they could, if offered, what would you do? >> well, i would not accept and i would say that my choice would be for jack welch to become speaker of the house. neil: that would be cool. >> that would be an amazing guy. one thing i would say about jack, he ran ge, as you know which was a huge conglomerate. he did a pretty good job over the years. he had some ups and downs. he ran a pretty dysfunctional company. put it together. he was decisive. he was, he was a little bit of an autocrat. neil: the point you select outside candidate and he would

be a good one. >> he would be the guy. neil: dagen mcdowell? >> i think jack would have not a lot of patience to suffer some of the fools in congress. neil: would you go outside? >> absolutely. i would nominate you but entire, all of america would have to endure your -- neil: accents. >> neil cavuto. >> exactly i would say, the bad powers. >> better than what we have. >> my personal nominee would be the rock. >> the rock? >> he would take charge and he is delicious to look at. couldn't we get some video of him with his shirt off? this is best we can do. neil: connell, maybe you can elevate the discussion. >> how about pope francis? just for charlie. just for charlie. neil: you know, you funny, everyone talks about this. there is that -- >> they could go outside. they won't. neil: consensus candidate is

kevin mccarthy. >> should be one of the guys -- you had the congressman jordan. one of the guys who throws from the outside and never wants to be speaker. i thought it was interesting you asked him. not just him. no of course not. i want to say stuff. neil: throwing hand grenades. >> like ted cruz. >> politics is fascinating because these republican insurgents, who, my heart is with them, but you know, they don't put up a candidate. they attack, attack, attack the establishment. where is their guy? >> right. >> comes out here is my plan, my -- >> tea partiers didn't put up anybody. >> these guys should put up or shut up. neil: outside of daniel webster. he is says we need to change the way we go about it. >> what would be really good i think. >> you're such a -- >> richard simmons would get

everybody to exercise. swinging to the oldies. clearly and outsider. can you imagine everybody doing those things? >> i told you, there was, can i tell this story really quickly? neil: please. >> there was a guest who was upset. he was walking out of your green room some years ago and i saw richard simmons, drop his shorts and follow him out of the green room to keep him on the program. it worked. he had underwear on underneath. he pulled his shorts down walking after him like this. you know what? it worked. the guest stayed. i love richard. >> he converted you one time on air, got you on his side by licking that doughnut or something. didn't he do something like that? >> are we still on the air? neil: this segment sounded promising at the outset. here is what i think, connell, in all seriousness, we're looking outside of the pietri dish coming to presidential candidates. 70% of republican voters eyeing

candidates not from the political establishment. in the end we always go back. >> 100%. that is probably why they mick mccarthy. he is not outsider. neil: chad was saying, our washington producer says that is what happens. we might go through multiple speakers. >> as we've been saying every five minutes we think donald had enough. donald trump will implode. but his staying power is testament to how the gop base -- neil: how long do you think the anger lasts? >> i think it will last a long time. when you talk to people, there are some problems from immigration to just all the stuff -- neil: that would help outside the box house candidate. >> it would but politicians are so lame that they want the easy choice. and that's the choice that they will make. that is unwith reasons that people are behind carson and trump and fiorina. neil: connell hit

. >> that is no way to talk about bernard mcguirk. neil: thanks, guys. >> i might nominate charlie if he takes his shirt off and shows me what he has going on. neil: he is very handsome man. we have to go! we have to go! more after this.

neil: we learned search for new ceo of twitter is over. tom dorsey is the guy.

he was, jack dorsey. i apologize. thinking of tom dorsey the stock strayed trader. jack dorsey came back as founder. twitter's stock is up 3 1/2% on that news. they like it. trish, take it to you now. trish: thanks so much, neil. breaking everyone, secretary of defense ash carter is about to speak at the pentagon. he will address serious unexpected move by russia. vladmir putin launching a series of airstrikes against anti-assad forces in syria. president obama who just met with vladmir putin less than 48 hours agnew nothing about it. welcome to "the intelligence report." i'm trish regan. the russian government insists it is trying to take out isis. sources in the intelligence community saying vladmir putin is not hitting isis with these attacks. he is hitting anti-assad forces which indicates this is about one thing and one thing only. vladmir putin keeping his ally,