all right, neil, take it away. neil: you didn't get, that's mail from us? can't wait until cavuto comes on? [ laughter ]. neil: you did? thank you very much, charles. we are following a lot of stuff all at the same time, which is another way of saying concurrently. take a look at the big board. we had been up almost 180 points. here is where we stand right now. fast moving conditions and just to chart it out here, you know me, i'm a huge fan of the charts but it's been all over the map. a lot of this could have to do with oil, oil prices got the sign that maybe the global economy could be picking up. whatever the excuse du jour is they're down right now, that is calling into question whether we have too much supply.

they got an unexpected bunch of it in the latest reading. now following fast moving developments in politics. marco rubio is at a rally in dover new hampshire, he's doing okay, but no ben carson. that is worrying the establishment candidates, ben carson is not that but a big threat at perhaps the most serious threat to whoever the democratic nominee will be. right now, most people seem to be betting he'd have a tougher fight with joe biden and joe biden a tougher fight with ben carson. no other republican puts up the numbers in an imaginary mock-up race against joe biden. we're told come next monday the vice president is going to decide whether he's in or out of this race. i showed you the numbers in the close matchup with ben carson, that's all anyone is talk about in the political world today and the donors are beginning to

say you know, maybe you got to give the doctor another look, and establishment candidates when they hear that, uh-oh. bush 43 spokesperson mercedes schlapp and joe, joe, i was reading your notes on this, you dismissed carson as like republicans' version of this year's howard dean. a development that will go away. >> absolutely. neil: i don't think you are appreciating what he's doing. dean was a one hit wonder. >> i disagree with you. dean was well going into iowa with a lot of steam. i think ben's -- carson's got some problems. he is undefined. no one has defined him yet. once that starts, you will see the ship lose a lot of its wind. trump and carson are leading this thing. when we look at establishment candidates are sitting in the back, and waiting, once they fall, the supporters have to go somewhere else. ben is going to be tested, defined which he hasn't yet. neil: he's doing okay for

someone who's not been defined and across the board which you love to accentuate, he's done well in the polls. >> no one is campaigning against him, yet. neil: i think there are 16 others who are. i could be mistaken. mercedes, what do you make of this? and to be fair to joe, lot of people say, well, he might be this year's herman cain, they said the same of donald trump, and the same of carly fiorina. we have a lot more of outside the box candidates. >> we've had the trump phenomenon, now a little of the carson phenomenon. think about it, neil, he's raised more small dollar donations than any other candidate about. 20 million he's raised in the last quarter. he's somehow connecting with a lot of these primarily social conservatives, christian in the key states like iowa, like south carolina, the numbers that came out in ohio, pennsylvania and florida,

message is resonating, why? he's the less radioactive version of donald trump. i think that's where the people are saying he's thoughtful. he has a compelling narrative and i think that, yes, part of this is going to be what are going to be his proposals? he talked about the economy just today, so i think those are the issues that we have to see because considering he had a poor debate performance, he's doing quite well, which is surprising. >> you know, joe, when you look at this, the unwritten story going to the polls is that the tight polls feature joe biden against in this case carson. i could have picked the other candidates too because biden does better in the matchups than she does. what do you make of that? >> first in full disclosure, i am a big biden fan, i would support his candidacy if he ran. we're right on this front, people look at biden and don't see this washed in democrat because he's got the story of going home when he's a senator and it's an interesting narrative.

neil: he is a washington democrat, he's the vice president of the united states. >> he's been in washington for years. >> he's teflon joe. a lot of the stuff doesn't stick. neil: unions don't like hillary clinton because she was part of administration that had the trade deals and think he's anti-trade. he had a higher position, he's the vice president of the united states. >> you're absolutely right. here's the thing, if it doesn't stick, it doesn't stick, perception is reality, when people look at him they think of uncle joe. neil: i have no follow-up question, but mercedes, do you get a sense that biden enters this race, if he does, that he gets the nomination, in other words, that regardless of the baggage you have associated with an administration and the incumbency it cuts both ways, it wouldn't cut hugely favorably, he survives that. >> everything seems so unlike what is predictable in politics right now, right? who would have known trump would be up in the gop side. i think when you looked at

democratic side hillary has a huge advantage in the sense she's been raising millions and millions of dollars, obviously her numbers are very impressive. she has built up an organizational structure in the key states. biden needs to play catch-up and in a very quick period of time. you got to talk about turning the heat. i think it will be an uphill battle, it's not impossible because again you're dealing with clinton, which comes across without having a heart and being filled with scandal to joe biden with a very touching, sad story, again, well loved by the democrats, so it's going to be an interesting play. i think the democrats want this fight. neil: i want to thank you, both. fast moving developments. in the meantime, maybe time for hillary clinton to bring in the big dogs as don imus would say, connell would remember that expression. bring in her husband, bring in bill clinton. it's not accidental that bill clinton is popping up a lot

more. blake burman on that. >> reporter: good afternoon to you, bill clinton last night was on stephen colbert, made an appearance. two different segments, was on the show probably 15 minutes or so. and with that bill clinton will be hosting a fund-raiser tonight in michigan, so he'll be raising money, and also making public appearances, at least the last couple days on her behalf as well. i want to play you a little bit of that appearance last night on stephen colbert. clinton there trying to distinguish himself from his previous predecessor, and with that kind of trying to separate the clintons from the bushes, take a listen here. >> when the second president bush came in office for the first six years, he had a republican congress and he was there, and they went back to trickle down economics, been in

my economic policy. >> reporter: so there you go, that was as political as clinton got. he was also asked jokingly who he would support. but it is certainly an interesting time with many also wondering well, if bill clinton is back out there on the campaign trail, might george w. bush at some point come on the campaign trail for his brother as well. so far bush's only main involvement is behind the scenes for his brother. that being fund-raising, he had a recent fund-raiser last week for jeb bush, scheduled for two more later in the month, including one here in washington, d.c., and many of those who are supporting jeb bush with these recent poll numbers, that recent poll in florida, pennsylvania and ohio which were not good for jeb bush are wondering is it a time for george w. to come on the trail like we have seen with bill clinton. neil? . >> you don't run away from your name, everyone knows who you are. blake, thank you very much. always good having you. from dagen mcdowell and

connell mcshane, david asman. i was mentioning the don imus comment, bring in the big dog, but also going with the guy who knows how to work the stump. >> i think my amateur political analysis say hillary needs two things, help on the trust end of things, the polling would tell you she needs help in the likability quotient of things, he does help in likability among democratic voters. people love him, and the people that vote in the primaries like bill clinton. neil: key point in the primaries, they do. >> they like bill clinton, they like listening to him, interesting, funny, informative. that's where he helps. >> he's a loose cannon. in 2008 he upstaged hillary clinton several times. by making statements that were taken as misstatements. neil: talking about obama, the guy is a fairytale. >> in south carolina talking about his anti-war policy.

he could turn out to be a double-edged sword for her. >> really? you think? you know what? one, he doesn't look healthy. he looks old, and you don't want to highlight -- >> he sounded old on the show last night. neil: we all get old. >> not you, neil, you're ageing in reverse. number one, and hillary clinton, she wants and frankly expects women to vote for her, and i watched that last night and thought why in the hell is she still married to that man? all this he put her through? oh, yes, i forgot, she wanted to run for the presidency, that's why she's still married to him. neil: that is difficulty, i think you're a hateer. >> it's a partnership. she gains as much from it as he does. >> that doesn't make me like her any more. neil: on this show, we won't do it. not this show. >> we did know what was going

on in that marriage, the whole country did. neil: connell, i think of the donors who sit on the sidelines and looking at ben carson, thinking he's a flash in the pan, doesn't appear to be a flash in the pan, i was thinking jeb bush was a sure bet, he's mired in fourth or fifth or sixth place in florida. so maybe changes so donors get off the fence, what do you think? >> might be a little early, it probably does. seems the only strategy, blake was bringing up whether jeb bush should have his brother campaign for him. neil: in states like south carolina, i think it would help. >> maybe it does. but i think more to the point for jeb bush right now, only viable strategy is to hope that time is on his side. that he can kind of play out the clock here a little bit and become the establishment candidate with a lot of money if he's able to best marco rubio or john mccain.

neil: there's a democratic donor robert wolf former president of ubs. >> bigwig in the financial world. >> he comes on neil's show frequently. neil: and always golfs with the president. a lot of time to golf. >> a lot of connections with hillary and bill, he put in a phone call to joe biden that scared the hell out of hillary clinton. and she and her advisers including john podesta to say what is going on? are you losing sight of the fact that i'm going to be the next president? not joe biden. neil: you are hearing a lot of evidence that suggests the hillary clinton backers are bored by her. >> like robert wolf. >> and they are piling on democrats ahead of potential joe biden announcement to lock up everybody that they can. i want to point out it about jeb bush and bush 43, there is no such thing as local anymore not with social media, not with the national stage that everyone operates on and the

former president coming out and campaigning is going to give material not just to the democratic candidates but potentially republican candidates as well. >> i hear you, and i think it's not as if you can pretend your name is smith if you're bush or if you're hillary clinton. >> he's trying. >> what did he look to gain from that? >> his logo is jeb with an exclamation point with no bush. on the flipside, the jeb campaign argues they're going to get hit with the former president's record anyway, they might as well have the -- they're well liked former president. >> who has the most hits against them running for president. >> hillary has the e-mails, the economy going down which she has to answer to. bernie sanders going up in the polls and beating her in several states, and bottom line she's got biden and liz warren there's a lot of talk about biden hooking up with liz warren on the campaign trail.

that would be one hell of a -- >> the democrats are very, very worried. they see the possibility of a bernie sanders pulling a mcgovern and getting the nomination and not going much further, that's where biden's charm comes in, right? >> yes. mcgovern is all lbj had to worry about, now you got two. not only is bernie gaining on hillary, but you have the possibility of biden. two major shows following her wherever she goes. >> biden is extremely strong on foreign policy. extremely strong in a way that hillary probably wouldn't be. neil: is there any sense you guys are getting if the markets go into, like a bear market, today not withstanding that that boomerangs on this race? the then attack for president bush senior is the crash didn't happen in the fall of '88. >> that's the gas theory, too.

that's what he thinks is going to kill hillary's candidacy. >> it could. it turns the tide on the issues, but it would force hillary clinton to run against what barack obama's done in the last what will be eight years once the presidential season kicks in, or seven years. i don't think it matters until you get down to the last three months of the president's term in terms of market. >> whether it's market or the economy, that's the point why jeb bush has time on its side. the negativity theory can come back to get him. >> it shines a light how left she's gone and how left the democratic party has gone. >> that's a great point. >> that didn't happen in 2008. >> hold the stock for six years to get the low rate. bill cut taxes and look what it did. >> trade deal as well, great point. neil: we are getting confirmation, thank you very much, as expected, new york

state is going after volkswagen. wants to get little more details how many cars are rigged, how many are vulnerable and how many people got hurt? can you add up the dollar signs, it has begun. the uaw all but set to make fiat the target of a big-old strike. what do you do if you're in the mood to get a car, any car. move now.

. neil: all right, we're seeing crowds building at the white house where the president is going to deliver remarks at a worker voice summit let me cut to the chase here, this is a union summit, espousing how important unions are, how crucial they are and how the white house has their ear.

one thing for the president to talk to the group. later on today we're going to hear from the vice president talking to the group. many in the audience are pushing him to run for president. we'll keep an eye on that, but all of this coming at a time unions feel they have a quasi victory when scott walker pushed himself out of presidential race, he cracked down on his unions in the state of wisconsin. meanwhile, ongoing problems for the auto industry, and lot of unions know it, but they're taking their fight to fiat chrysler. jeff flock on that. jeff? >> reporter: they're a little bit like donald trump supporters, neil. the rank and file of the fiat chrysler auto workers because the management, the establishment came up with an agreement, they had a deal and the rank and file said go back to the table, it's not good enough. by deadline time tonight, 11:59 eastern time tonight week could

get a strike at nationwide fiat chrysler plants or targeted plants. gm in 1999, a strike they covered, they targeted a parts plant and eventually shut down whole production. if you strike the transmission plant at fiat chrysler in kokomo, the union has leverage on its side, nobody wants a strike, that's the way it's headed right now. neil: what do prospective car buyers do when that happens? you covered that many times. they get their car now if they can because there will be a shortage of supplies if this drags on, what? >> reporter: potentially, that's the union wants to do is target the most popular vehicles the jeeps at dealership behind me are selling tremendously. chrysler on a 66 straight month streak of sales increases, so you know, they've got a -- the figure is 77-day supply, but that could go fairly quickly if

you get a strike and there's demand for the vehicles. so yeah, if you want an indemand vehicle like a jeep, think about getting it. neil: i am hearing volkswagen has alternatives for folks, but apparently people are not leaping at that yet, jeff. thank you very much, my friend great job as always. jeff flock. we're keeping track of that volkswagen of course, i told you the new york attorney general has again indicated that an investigation will be under way, and the headaches mount and other attorneys general doing the same thing. the stock up a little bit, it has been about halved from the crisis though. onto syria, the russian foreign minister had a very good reaction to americans lecturing on whether the russians are hitting isis positions, effectively saying, making reference without saying so to the collateral damage strike at a hospital in afghanistan by our own airplanes.

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. neil: all right, here's the weirdest thing that's happening in syria. iraq is urging the russians to continue seek out isis positions, assuming they're doing just that. no. the weird reality is saying nothing of thousands of american lives seem to be joining up with russians at a time russia's formed this unusual alliance featuring iran as well. you have to ask yourself where is all of this going? what are we to make of it. we have retired colonel wesley martin on that. i'm thinking of this, this feeds into america's pessimism why we should commit to the region when the folks we helped out in the past have jumped sides, what do you say? >> the government appears to be jumping side.

folks, the people in iraq are the same good people that i served with and i worked with when i was over there, and there are thousands, tens of thousands of people demonstrating in the streets right now, but unfortunately it's the iranian influence on the government of iraq, solid influence on al-malaki, similar influence to al-abadi, it's the government, not the people. neil: can you make the argument of the people of iran are not as whacko as the government. but the government is as the government, is and the government is cozying up to vladimir putin. what do we do? our response certainly seems to be at best tentative and not consistent. >> i've been saying from the very beginning when isis was first invading into iraq, if this administration had acted quickly and decisively, we could have knocked them out in convoy on the way to mosul. instead a president goes up on tv and says we don't have a

strategy yet. he calls them a junior varsity team. we know, we don't have a strategy but they're no junior varsity team. we have to do full combat operations against isis, and instead we say we're going to go ahead and bomb. british were bombed during world war ii continuously. what did that do? it toughened their resolve. i'm not just talking boots on the ground, i'm talking about going into computer network operations, follow the money trail, shut down the fund-raising capabilities, and work with the communities. we abandon these people. put it simply, david petraeus won the war, barack obama lost the peace. neil: do you think there is much public appetite to reengage? >> as of this moment, there is not because we lost 4, 485 lives and as you pointed out the iraq regime was the clear winner, they were the winner

when we dropped saddam hussein. what the president needs to do is not lead from the rear, which is his logo but leads from the front. he properly identifies the threat, properly identifies the solution and implements it. al-abadi is trying, but said the reason i'm turning to the russian says because the americans left me. neil: good tonight. very good point. colonel, thank you very much. >> thank you, sir. >> all right, you hear the extreme views on both sides in this particular race, does anyone remember jack kemp? he tried to find a way to bridge that divide. they say he's gone but the messages shouldn't be forgotten. after this.

. neil: all right, you know we have a battle. republicans are trying to select the next speaker, and conservatives say you this never, ever negotiate with the other side. the other side saying you got to get stuff. in the middle of that, you start to wonder where would a jack kemp fit in today in the former buffalo, new york congressman, vice presidential candidate, and conservative party stalwart might have a tough time fitting in with the party today. fred barnes leading our conservatives, we changed america, the premise is this he was probably the most consequential nonpresidential figure in the last century. certainly among them. good to have you back with me.

>> hi, neil, how are you? >> good. do you think that the party would welcome a jack kemp today or he would recognize it? >> well, in certain respects, he would be controversial but he meant to be controversial. i would like to think that his ideas could carry the day even yet. john kasich is not too far off from where kemp would be, and if kasich. neil: the compassionate conservative guy. >> compassionate conservative, growth oriented conservative. he doesn't quite have the lift and the optimism that kemp conveyed, and he's having a difficult time getting through and as an energetic candidate, but i think he's the closest. and jeb is not much behind but jeb is way down on the energy scale. neil: that surprises me. fred the one thing that you

get reading a little bit about where kemp came from and the influence he had, especially on tax cuts, getting ronald reagan to embrace the big supply side-type cuts that drastically brought taxes down and led to a boom, is that he seemed to represent two different bonds within the same party. modern, hoping to get more minorities in getting republican votes but revolutionary in terms of turning political orthodoxy upside down, could kemp do it today? >> kemp could. neil: he didn't do it as a vice presidential candidate. i'm not blaming him for what happened to bob dole. >> you are stuck with whatever the presidential candidate has as his policies and style somewhat, but, look, kemp was

so dynamic, he was so growth oriented. that's exactly what america needs now. we have a slow growth of stagnant economy, 2% growth or less. i think the first time in decades, many, many decades where when you've gone through seven years of a presidency and haven't had one year of 3% growth, kemp would have been furious and campaigning for a new round of supply side tax cuts where the rates are cut, and then they're not just a cut here for that. but really across the board, and that's exactly what we need. kemp believed in economic growth because he said growth would like jfk said, the rising tide would lift off boats, and historically it has. neil: you pointed out as well, that inspiration for kemp and the tax cuts to come jack kennedy would have got the cuts he wanted in 1964. >> what you are touching on, there are two parts of kemp,

there's the kemp that's very bold, supply side guy who pushed across the tax cuts, and kemp the model republican politician, who cared about the poor and so on. neil: this is where i felt he was a riddle raft of a proverbial conundrum, he was a guest on the show around the time. meltdown, i want to replay clips here, i at the time was not a fan of the bush bailouts that were going on with ben bernanke. the first part of this interview goes back to the nearly 800 point free fall in the dow after congress failed to pass tarp, the emergency bank rescue measure, and kemp's view was we needed to do that, and i argued, well, we're doing this to save the markets when in fact they would later slide precipitously. this is where i thought he was company man. no disrespect intended.

let's go back in time, jack kemp 2008. >> the markets are going into a hissy fit. >> hissy fit? you call this a hissy fit. neil: yes, i do. what do you think it is? >> it's a market meltdown, a credit crunch, and a threat to the economy of significant propersions. >> how does the government need to do that? why not let the market, however hellish it might be, if the market projects it, let it rip. >> let it rip. like the hissy fit you called it monday. what do you call it today? neil: is it a hissy fit over the economy. i'm saying, jack, when you countdown to the markets, jack is that a mistake? believe it or not, we got along just famously. my point remains by the way, maybe it's conservative on my part to say a government should not interfere with markets, however brutal and however

brutal the fallout that you save off the agony, and the point i was trying to raise is set up other rescues and could be other rescues for the auto industry for kids behind on the student loanis and could go on and on and on, so what do you think of that, mort. if the true conservative would not have embraced, george bush did, i know, would not have embraced what was a very slippery slope? >> look, who knows what would have happened if we followed your model. neil: we would have gotten over it, take it from me, i know exactly what would have happened, trust me. >> maybe we'd be in the middle of a depression. neil: well, that was the argument, but again we don't know. >> but jack -- >> i don't want to fight on the right or wrong of it. fred, help me with this. >> no, i'm going to answer this. neil: okay, go ahead. >> jack kemp, jack kemp. neil: you had to be against the government intervening, because

you can't be a little bit pregnant? >> jack kemp was never a libertarian. he did not believe that the government had no place in any activity. jack kemp was in favor of -- like lincoln was, he was a lincoln republican, he wanted government to assist people in rising and, you know, just letting, he was not laissez-faire. neil: you don't get my point, brilliant, both of you. fred, the argument for the intervention at the time, and it service as a metaphor for both you guys great book, that we have got to do this for the good of the country, that this is something that needs to be done. my fear with those who now and then change their minds on the value of government intervention is once you allow once you condone it, we build a system that is government dependent, even in the times that we were in. what do you say? >> that's true, but you're thinking, neil, you're thinking economically, you're thinking

as an economic conservative, a free market guy who believes that the market will heal itself and probably would have. kemp always thought presidentially, he was a presidential figure, even when he was in the house of representatives, he didn't care about being a committee chairman or party whip or anything like that. he thought about the whole country. a president would have to act politically, he could not just allow, i mean, tell the american people, i'm going to let it ride and we'll hope for the best. you can't do that. the same with the bailout of the auto industry. no president is going to allow the auto industry in america to fail or even to allow an agreement to take the gamble that it might. neil: why not? that ronald reagan didn't propose fiscal stimulus after the '87 market crash. ronald reagan -- my point, is gentlemen, and it's not like i'm disparaging your look, i'm not at all. my point is he was not in the reagan genre. >> he usually wasn't.

i can see why he thought that. look, the fact of the matter is, if you're president, if you're running the country, you don't take gambles with the auto industry failing or the economy cracking up completely. neil: all right, all right. mort? >> yeah, i completely agree with fred, and look, kemp believes in -- neil: so odd, you agree with your co-author! [ laughter ]. >> kemp was not a libertarian, he believes that the government needed to do. neil: that's a good point. >> under the circumstances, you look at what paul ryan did during that period. paul ryan came around and was one of the people that reversed the house vote, and he was -- neil: to what end? after we did get the tarp, a few months later we were down 6,000 more points. the idea to calm the market hissy fit as i joked with jack what good does it do, right? >> i loved that interview, that was great.

neil: he was a great guy, and don't mean any disrespect to him. as i told him. it's a great books so glad having you for your last appearance on the show. i kid you. it is a great read, fred and mort, incredible authors on this. and they go back in time. i forgot the juxtaposition with reagan and selling him on this stuff. i told you about the attorney general going after volkswagen and now going after fantasy football. really?

. neil: all right, we've moved from fantasy to real, as in a real investigation on the part of the new york state attorney general into the whole fantasy football dustup. connell mcshane with more on that. now it is getting serious. >> we thought it might, we were

speculating whether government officials should get involved. eric schneiderman sent a letter to the draftkings ceo who was on with maria bart roam on this morning. what schneiderman wants to know who are the employees that are coding, setting up the website that have the data on the fantasy football players that are used and what are the rules that surround the employees? around to play on another site as was accused on the case that is big news, alout to win money. he's given them until the 15th of october to give answers. mr. robin speaking to maria bartiromo about the case of this guy ethan haskell, the guy in the news the last couple of days, supposedly trading or playing with proprietary information, shouldn't have been public, maybe he had an advantage, or maybe not. here's what robbins had to say to maria. >> we have done everything to investigate the incident and

have clearly found evidence that we pulled records when data was sent to the employee there was absolutely no wrongdoing here. >> no wrongdoing here, maybe the absolute truth. the problem is we don't know for certain what robins is claiming, this guy haskell, they have done an intern investigation, documentation, that they have the information that was the key to all this after it was useful to him. he had it but couldn't act upon it. he had to lock in his fantasy lineup. i called to ask to send some of the documentation, the documentation is there, we don't know if he had it all week and didn't act upon it until 1:40 p.m. which is the time he acted upon it. they say no wrongdoing the attorney general is looking into it. neil: when you make money on, this bet money on picks in your fantasy, everyone is going on a hunch, a bet.

does the game change when have you proprietary information or taken information that's not available in public. is that where the rating thing comes up? >> it might, key thing on a hunch or bet, if you are right -- and people agree with you in the characterization. neil: interesting, i had no idea what i said. >> that's gambling, right? the point is this is not supposed to be gambling, this is not officially gambling, that's what they claim. neil: i don't mean to trivialize it. apparently people are going on the sites, does it make a difference to them, or is it a rigged game. >> that's why people should care. hundreds of thousand of us playing, i have information what you're doing, i could use the information essentially like the stock market, i could bet against what you're doing and the next guy playing has no idea what the two of us are doing, that's a level playing field. >> the term fantasy football might be an opening clue, right?

>> right, a bunch of geeks, that what you're saying? . neil: one guy makes a living off this. >> twenty-first century fox has a stake an investment in draftkings, lots of other companies too, that's the reason we care. neil: so we have an investment as a sdmuchl yes, in draftkings. neil: it's a great idea, the technology is big! all right, look at the time. when we come back, you know, i cannot keep track of the fed governors and district presidents. they say we're going to hike in december, if we don't, we'll all rue on the day. you can get on the same page? after this. active management can seek to outperform. that's the power of active management.

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not get fixated on what a quarter point hike in interest rates will do. you got to hike rates, you got to give the fed wiggle room and the fed did draw a line in the sand when it all but promised that a rate hike would come by the end of the year. the jobs report disrupted that but eric stein, the co-director of global fixed income said it wouldn't be the end of the world if we saw the hike by december? you stand by that? >> i still do. i think it would be the right move to do. neil: in the face of it. >> zero is an emergency rate, we're not in emergency, slow growth, picking up, how big a concern china is, we're not in an emergency environment. neil: you could have made that argument five years ago, right? long in the tooth for this. >> we certainly are. the fed is behind the curve not in the traditional sense of behind the curve in inflation but behind the curve in the economic cycle, that means they

should get off zero when they can. neil: what happens when they do? i'm confounded to market reaction in developments. you would think at a meeting two weeks ago when they weren't expected to hike, not at that meeting, there was all this consternation that they must see how on the horizon, sure enough we got employment report out couple weeks later telegraphed by the none move. if they hike in the face of the weaker news, do the markets punish them for that? >> i think the markets could actually rally. it is interesting about the last meeting, the september meeting they did a dovish hold they held rates and were hawkish, if they held they'll be hawkish, they weren't. they were concerned about china and other things and risk markets sold off. we've seen most fed speakers, dudley and yellen and others say we want to get off zero. neil: are they compelled to do it because they themselves drew that line in the sand, and they

feel they have to be people of their word? >> no, i think the most compelling argument is get off zero, not an emergency rate. we're at 5.1% unemployment. a year out we could be sub5%. neil: he's assuming ratchet up quarter point at a time, what do you think? >> i think we can. the u.s. economy certainly overseas in china, there's lots of concerns, short-term the negative sentiment in china will bottom. but given where we are in the commodity cycle, there is concern about emerging market countries that produce commodities and concern about china. there is always going to be risked. >> okay, very good. eric stein, thank you very much. donald trump is still tops in all the polls, lead pared a little bit, i got a guy who says you know what? the donald is out by a long shot. after this.

>>

>> >>

neil: look who's birthday it is today. i almost forgot. yes, i am talking about you. sixty-three years young. i could not get all the kids in my class to join me. anyway -- 63 years old. dealing with russian planes and all that stuff. why not celebrate your birthday. a heck of a hockey player. seven-zero p1. no one stopped him. the one guy that did, they are looking for him now. happy birthday. donald trump. he is and i was getting ready to make some big remarks. all the polls can be volatile. a consistent reading with donald trump on top.

carson may do better suited against the democratic candidate whether it is hillary clinton or joe biden if he enters the race. stuart stevens. he has a book out. maybe he will weigh in. your argument is that he is not going to be around for iowa. you do not think that donald trump will stick it out. why? >> i think that donald trump is someone that places a great value on his brand. the brand is still a winner. what do we know about most people that run for president? i do not think that donald trump will win iowa. i think he will win south carolina. >> that electorate would nominate. someone who is a big winner in

business to emerge a loser and politics. >> he has exponentially built that. win, lose, draw. whatever you say. >> i do not think that he would look at it that way. the thing about politics is there is a score. you cannot spend that. my brand is really worth 10 billion, not 4 billion. you have a number and you are evaluated. very dangerous. a lot of these people come out of the presidential process enhanced. a lot of people come out of it in a lower status. >> still on top. what i find so amazing is he watches him follows everything.

even reach retreating the story we did on this very show within the last hour. donald trump is leading them carson in a new poll. we brought that. we pass that along. >> a 13-year-old kid in his mom's basement in moscow could start a war with petroleum. i have never seen someone so sensitive about what is said about him. neil: you are a hater. you are a hater. he has a slightly big ego. your issue is what else? >> proven in this race that he is temperamentally unprepared on the issues. temperamentally unprepared to be president. i have a lot of respect for donald trump as a business

leader. he hired a lot of people when days were darkened new york. he paid a ton of taxes. given a ton to charity. a lot of respect for him. what he said about austin area and isis is just laughable. they can fight it out with the russians. it is silly stuff. look, i think that donnell trump has been having fun. he is at a stage in his life that does what he likes to do for fun. you've got to love him for that. >> his performance in this poll is surprising. >> where he is now really does not matter. it is where he ends up on the ballot. neil: i see. we have this thing called a nomination in there.

thank you very much. good seeing you. another criticism, by the way. half of all eligible taxpayers. a lot of people say it is negative if you are running for election. paying no taxes. bobby jindal coming along with a plan. everyone paying taxes. everyone has skin in the game. they are more attentive to that game. more on that. what do you think of that? >> i think that he is running at the trial. donald trump came out with this plan that cuts tax rates across the board. 70 million off entirely. not very fond.

a tax party. most conservatives also believe everyone should pay a bill. even you neil. >> it is not that trump is the only one. that is where it goes. what is alarming is when you get up to trump you have have to art and who are not. some not paying anything. you put a percentage cap on that. >> somewhere close to 40% on american households pay no income tax. that is something like 40 million household pays that pay zero.

by my calculations, almost two thirds of households. we have talked about this over the years. the top 1%. they're paying about 40% of the tax. the top pay about 65%. highly progressive. a huge percentage of the tax. the only other thing i would mention is talking about jeb bush. the this is actually something that dates back to my hero. ronald reagan. reagan took a lot of low income people off entirely. if you make $10,000, maybe you should just pay $100 in tax. >> soma takes you out to dinner. you are not going to cut back.

three appetizers and five desserts. [laughter] >> that is absolutely for sure. a tiny sliver. you do not want government to be free to people. then they will order the lobster dinner. neil: or the lobster in the shrimp. [laughter] by the way, debuting not plan. bobby jindal on why he thinks everybody, everybody has to pay something to uncle sammy. 4:00 p.m. eastern time. connell mcshane and elizabeth macdonald on another development we are watching. battling those is acute is. my point was not to say that there are plenty of sinners among the bankers.

bernanke and hillary clinton saying they are surprised. doing what they did. >> yes. what did the federal reserve do. bailing out government spending. in washington, d.c. that has our expense. that is a self bailout of the bankers. >> these guys created it. >> he turned a blind eye when bankers were raising their own bonuses. now he is talking about putting more of them in jail. neil: or his warnings. >> that is where they started.

lives with hillary. bill clinton. how about the repeal of glass seagal. allow to be done. the guy that she lives with started it. sort of expanding home ownership. going from being a gold to a darn near birthright. they will collateralize and package and find a way to keep pushing. watching them provide the loaded gun. the ammunition. now saying we will go after these guys because they went on that. >> we were saying earlier in the show, taken but up the point

that hillary has made this movement to the left. trying to make this movement to the left or is making this move to the left, no better illustration. giving us the ammunition to use your terminology. all those people should go to jail. >> back at the "wall street journal." doing a story about redlining. solving income inequality. the s&l crisis happened. wall street was looking for in another game to play. washington, d.c. set that up for them beautifully. neil: they love these mortgage-backed securities. they love the way that things were finding a way to lend to

people. they encourage us. everyone was using their home as an atm. all of a sudden the music stopped. >> the party was great. as long as alcohol cup coming out. if you have a heart beat, we will give you a loan. that is absolutely crazy. this is such a populous move. the lowest thing to go after. she says, oh, hey, america. i want to protect you. neil: we always want to see people punished after a crisis. that is not good enough. we need to see people walk.

>> that is fair. don't have the conversation going completely one direction. bernanke brings up that some of these institutions were fine. in essence with those lines you are saying they did something wrong. there were individuals that committed some sort of wrongdoing. >> they could be right. yes, there was corrupt behavior. everybody in washington, d.c. saying their mortgages worth more than it is. neil: i am not saying that bankers -- i'm just saying their armed more than a few other. go after the group. >> they were looking to do that. they could not get the proof

why? >> watching opportunities for people who could not get home before -- that could not get loans before. >> pretend all the time. connell: that is exactly right about that. pick your name. >> taking a case and you will prosecute the case. >> the gse of d.c. >> the punishment. go for one, go for all. >> their own accounting scandals, by the way. i am not sure why they were left out. >> guys, thank you all. the latest developments in the middle east.

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neil: i was warning you about this. my fears about this. last week we got news of russian planes flying over serious. i mentioned the fact that there was no air traffic control over those skies. flying over those. now we get this report just out of the pentagon. u.s. aircraft had to change course to avoid a russian jet. they would not give an exact type of jet that was involved or how close they came.

apparently close enough where they could see each other. that is not good. a very dangerous development. we are not checking where each other's planes are flying. >> i think that it is inevitable. i think it is like oh hair at rush hour. it means you are very, very close. talking about a mile-2 miles within each other. inevitably, you have airplanes and bombs with missiles doing, runs on targets, you have events where you will get so close to each other. even in the best conditions. air force versus navy. three or four different countries with the complexity of elements of each of their air

force involved. you will have people bump up against each other. the pentagon says avoidance has occurred since the russians began flying the so-called shortage. they have argued. we are supporting to help overthrow the saudi government. close enough that we had to reroute the plane to avoid a russian fighter jet. they fly so fast. i think that it is just a matter of time. we have some pretty crowded skies. >> we do.

they are going to go after isis two. inevitably, within the context of that, i think this may be a good thing. attacking isis targets. you have russian airplanes close to our airplanes. that means they actually are going after isis targets. with that said, they are doing it for their own purpose. the russians have been asked to be in syria. we have not. you need to back off america. we are legitimately here. you will see this ratcheting up diplomatic. all about putin pushing his way in. a $2 billion deal. going into jordan.

going into a number of places. i say i have a better deal. a more stable ally. president obama is not on your side. it will not be anything to help us. it will be about putin himself. neil: it is his birthday. do not be trashing him too much. all right. let's look at oil. this is another development that is interesting. oil had been up. there was a lot more squashing around in the world than we thought. the currency is going down. on paper, mr. putin is finding out that it is his party. less rich than he was. go ahead, cry if you want to.

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neil: in waterloo, iowa, donald trump speaking to a pretty jazzed crowd. he is saying he is not going anywhere. this is same donald trump who thought he would get tripped up about comments about isis and russia. if russians want to fight isis have at it. a lot of people criticized for that but he hasn't suffer inned polls. having said that this whole syrian thing was first beginning to trigger concern in the oil markets but that concern apparently has been totally unwound. take a look at oil prices right now. we got a report that shows we have a little bit more of this stuff. a lot more than we thought. we had godden close to 50 bucks a barrel. in and out of 48.55, 56, or so. phil flynn, i can't make sense

what is going on in the oil markets? what is driving it right now? the supply surprised people because we have more than we thought. >> it did. a lot of traders are already questioning that. we saw a big drop in rye finery runs. that led to increase. totally opposite what we saw from the american petroleum institute. listen, despite today's pullback, oil prices are still hanging at high level. over last six days we had biggest run in s&p energy index we've seen probably the last two years. so we are definitely seeing upward momentum. what is happening in the big picture, construction destruction. we've seen the biggest pullback in the energy industry construction complex. rig counts are falling dramatically. that is supporting prices. the one week build of supplies caught people by surprise. that may be part of impact of

the hurricane. refineries shut down. imports not leaving the country and that may have have impact. neil: phil, thank you for me picking your brain. your words become mind. donald trump continues to address to people in iowa. indicating he is not going anywhere. a group said by iowa he would be out of the race he would be bored especially if slips in the polls. i'm not of that opinion. i don't think folks are of that opinion. donald trump is not of that opinion. things could change. right now the man who has more money than all the other candidates combined by a thousand, he is spending the least. give you a point here. hillary clinton spent about $30 million in the last three months. $30 million. 30 million. donald trump? two million. money under the couch. more after this. rfect moment. the one nobody else sees. and when i find it- i go for it.

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neil: donald trump is doubling down on the famous let the russians fight isis comment. he is addressing an audience in iowa. saying let them carry the fight to isis. the criticism of the white house , russian warplanes with whom our fighters came close to, they're fighting our fighters we support to topple president assad of syria. be that as it may, if you thought donald trump would dial this back, much like our charlie gasparino, he refuses.

speaking of which we have charlie here. dagen is here. we got connell back here. this is guy, i don't know, gaspo, says how much he is worth >> 10. neil: whatever. he spent all of two million dollars, right? >> i make billions and billions and i spend nothing on this race, neil. nothing on this race. neil: why do you sound like -- >> what is his name? who is my spokesman? eric something or another. will tell you. neil: stop it. >> here's the thing. right now, what we reported in the past, he actually doesn't have to spend that much money, because the bottom line is this. when he opens his mouth, when you combine that with the pickup he gets in the newspapers, that we talked about -- neil: a lot more than two million. >> 25 million, 25 million a pop. neil: okay. >> this is where i question whether donald is serious. here's the thing. you have to set up statewide

apparatuses. 2 million is nothing. >> they denied the number or came from their camp. >> here is what they're denying. let me finish, they're saying it is inaccurate. that is what they told us. >> that would be -- >> said the number didn't come from their campaign. >> said it is inaccurate. >> here is what we know. october 15th, is when they have to report to the federal election committee. that is when we'll know exactly what he spent. >> they're saying it is inaccurate. i still think he spent a lot. neil: connell, 30 million like hillary or close to it, he is not spending that money, right. >> that is the point. the point he is not spending a lot of money. "washington post" used facebook data, which is fascinating. 80% of the conversation in the election surrounds trump. it is free media. >> 25 million a pop. >> so everything he is getting now is for free. >> this came from the jeb bush campaign, okay? this is what they did. they went back and looked at

comparable media buy it would take to have the impact when donald goes out and says something provocative or something. >> sure. >> the pickup in the social media, in the print and advertising media lasts about three days. what the bush campaign estimated it is equal to $25 million free. free stuff. neil: competitors, i had one earlier, dagen, he will run out of steam. i don't think even makes it to iowa. i don't think he is serious. this is about charlie's view in the beginning when trump first declared. if he starts losing or damaging the brand or falling in the polls, i don't buy that. >> it will take a lot for him to lose all mojo in the next several months between now and end of the year. neil: falls to second or third in iowa he bolts the race. >> yeah i do. can't stand losing. i want to point out since charlie has.

that giant 757 boeing jet he fliesing around with trump on the side of it. no other candidate has that access to private aircraft. he spent half a million dollars alone in the second quarter on that jet. >> we don't know on that jet. >> on private air travel. according to records, over half a million dollars was spent on private air travel. that is almost double. neil: let me ask you this, business jet for political use you could make the argument, anytime if he mentions business trip he can write it off? >> this is why the notion he is spending. i received emails, the notion this is huge expense for trump campaign is a joke. he will take deductions. he goes to his golf courses on campaign events. neil: you don't know that. >> does that pass the smell test? >> it doesn't. neil: i think these numbers are far bigger. >> he will, neil two million

dollars a year on a jet is peanuts. >> will be a lot more than two million dollars. neil: ultimately it is higher than being stated. >> i don't know about that. i do. my point is, whatever the final figure is deemed to be, a heck of a lot less and all the candidates -- >> that is the point. >> at some point he has to spend something. neil: where did he spend couple million? >> that jet, 757 alone costs more than $10,000 an hour to fly it. if you want to know how it works, you won't listen to me, connell. >> why does it matter? >> you have to treat -- >> $6 million a year. >> he is essentially reimbursing himself. >> that's it. >> the campaign has to treat it as in-kind gift. it is a gift from trump.

he is financing his own campaign. it is more than 2 million a year though. >> suppose he pops in -- neil: i don't know what any of you just said. >> by the way, suppose he pops into a golf course there near where -- >> that's fine. >> saying more than two million a year. he is traveling more than he was in the second quarter. neil: we can quibble over two million, 20 million, the argument he eventually has to. >> that is what i was about to say, when something bad happens, if dagen finished second or third quarter -- neil: was afraid to ask her a follow-up. >> you don't have the sexual tension with me that connell does. >> don't want to get involved in that. >> you guys want to talk? >> always your fault, connell. >> that's it. >> you're beautiful, connell. >> excuse me, charlie. >> there goes train of thought. >> i love you. >> going to say something -- >> if something bad happens to him in the campaign, does he -- dagen says he drops out.

neil: i don't think he does. >> if he spends money what does he spend? a ton of advertising. >> he said he will spend 100 million to win the nomination. neil: rounding error in his checking account. >> what is the nomination going to be done? middle of next year, right? >> maybe at the convention. neil: maybe at the convention. >> just think, he is spent 2 million now. what is the run rate on that? he is not spending. neil: i think much more than you're stating, but, and i understand the crazing accounting. still to connell's point a lot less. >> you know he is definitely running when he sets up statewide committees. >> he has not done that. how much staff has he hired? very little. neil: ballpark sandwiches for 100 people didn't -- >> i tell connell. i love your face. beautiful face. >> there is plenty ever tension between us. neil: oh, boy. >> he has a beautiful face. neil: wish we had more time for the segment.

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early this morning probably think well, the oil price is way up. well, it is not. it actually went down. the government reported larger than expected build in crude oil stockpiles which is the main point. it was 3.07 barrels. the expectation was 2.2. so way off on the expectation. it gives us a chance as you see intraday movement, up and down we're coming back, to talk about energy stocks, the energy sector sup 9% as a group since last wednesday. so the best performing group this quarter. funny thing, energy was biggest loser in the third quarter, down 18%. we'll see if it continues. what does continue is "cavuto: coast to coast." we're up 70 point at the moment.

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neil: is it me or do billionaires get bored. you know what? i think my fellow billionaire buddy michael bloomberg should run for president as donald trump is running for president. if everyone acts on impulses we could have more billionaires in this presidential contest than ever. michael bloomberg has experience in new york with 12 years as

mayor. got business shops et cetera. he is cerebral guy. what do you make of that? >> well, there are a lot of positive things to say about michael bloomberg. he has become fabulously wealthy. it was because he was fired from a job. neil: that's true. that is very true. >> working at solomon brothers. was laid off, given a small severance package, nine or $10 million but turned it into this amazing corporation. good for michael bloomberg. let's be clear, neil. if he were to run he would run as a dim democrat. neil: democratic liening? >> bloomberg is too smart to think a independent could win. with hillary clinton looking so feeble in the polls, being beaten a social alist from vermont who speaks with brooklyn accent, much more likely bloomberg could run as a democrat. in fact he would have a decent

chance getting nomination. neil: in a crowded field that might include joe biden, he would certainly be an outside the box pick. and you know, supported by a lot of democrats because, truth be told when he ran as republican ran to clear the field, to get elected. what i guess i'm asking is, how does he make that connection then, with people say you will just a political flip-flopper? >> well, but look, when you look at social issues, he lines up very consistently with democrats. neil: yes. >> he favors abortion rights. he has a lenient view on immigration. he is in favor of strong gun control. so he is worried about climate change. exactly. so democrats could brag compared to donald trump. our billionaire is 10 times -- neil: how would he do in a general election? >> depends who he faces. now -- neil: wouldn't that be cool if it were trump? >> well, yes. that is why democrats would

cheer, say our billionaire is 10 times richer than your billionaire. who will be better for the economy? neil: donald trump has a tax plan on the table as you know, todd, that calls for 0% tax rate, one of the four rates. where 75 million more americans households wouldn't have to pay. now that's a populist appeal. that means half of all households would not pay federal income taxes. that is very popular. do you think that is something that would resonate on the stomach? >> i think it sounds attractive. the real question is, is it good for the country? i have to tell you, neil -- neil: everyone has to have skin in the game. that is bobby jindal getting with a plan, at least everyone to pay something, even if the lowest rate is only 2% but everyone pays something. >> and i think, everyone should have skin in the game. i don't think it is healthy for a country, for the long-term survival of this country, if half the people feel that, well,

hell, i don't care what the government spends. not coming out of my pocket. i think it is an important point. i think we've gone too far with idea so many millions of people should not be worried about federal spending. neil: todd as some that worked in the, sr. administration there is back and forth, jeb should use your brother, freely mention your dad. everyone knows who you are but he is almost afraid to. what do you make of his conundrum? >> well, it is a difficult situation. the fact is jeb bush, was the governor of florida. successfully reelected. he has got a record of his own but he should perhaps take a lesson from al gore who lost the presidency because he ran away from bill clinton. and bill clinton never understood why in 2,000 al gore wouldn't embrace clinton's record. perhaps you're right, jeb bush

should not run from the bush name but in fact it represents strong leadership. he has other problems with his campaign. neil: absolutely. >> certainly he hasn't figured out how exactly to present himself to the public. neil: embrace who you are. todd buchholz. always good to have with you, my friend. >> good to be with you, neil. neil: yum! brands, taco bell kfc, we told you how they reported disappointing earnings and the stock is down 19% right now. we've been picking through the earnings. you know where the earnings were most profound, most worrisome most real? china. people that say china is no longer a problem? they can just eat it. ♪

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♪ ♪ (ee-e-e-oh-mum-oh-weh) (hush my darling...) (don't fear my darling...) (the lion sleeps tonight.) (hush my darling...) man snoring (don't fear my darling...) (the lion sleeps tonight.) woman snoring take the roar out of snore. yet another innovation only at a sleep number store. neil: when yum! brands earnings

came out, taco bell, pizza hut people were worried with maybe disappointment fewer people were eating out. turns out yes, that was generally the case, fewer the thought, generally the case in china, which was a booming market to these guys, and a lot of other guys. that prompted fears of wait a minute, flooding fears of their own earnings, jo ling kent, ashley webster with how this pans out. jo ling, what do you think? >> a decline started with avian flu and continued on. the issue is chinese consumer what they want and what they can afford, right? these slowing growth numbers are not tip of the iceberg when it comes to the actual debt of china. kfc traditionally done very, we well in china. it has slowed down quite a bit. what we see is, yum! brands trying to figure out new strategy. do we offer premium that's or coffee. neil: it had been working.

>> it had been working, yes. you had more competition from chinese chains with more local flavors as well. neil: bottom line, does this herald bad news for other guys in this neck of the woods? >> we talked about. i covered earnings when we talked about this. neil: wait. are you saying we're kind of after the fact here? >> no, no, not at all. we got the results. you're very touchy, aren't you? neil: i am. >> the end of the show. >> that is what i'm saying. as you go through all the of results is this bigger china story or a problem for yum! brands. i know china is struggling. think think company in particular may not reflect overall for what u.s. companies are doing in china. they really struggled last three years with food scandals. toxic chicken used with antibiotics. we have had, i think, because of that -- neil: chinese are fine ones to start judging our -- >> that is whole another conversation but you're absolutely right. i do think they struggled. they say kfc is doing better.

pizza hut struggled. neil: pizza hut struggled always experimenting with the crust. leave the crust alone. >> pizza hut in china, jo can speak to, is nothing like pizza hut here. chicken wings and fried squid. >> put cool vegetables on the pizza. pizza is special destination type of thing that isn't necessarily high indbut just different. pizza hut will never be kfc where people go. neil: this is american institution. we don't like them yapping how we're hacking of them. we're getting tired of it. >> i don't gather that from pizza hut customers. but i haven't seen them on the ground in china for a few years. neil: if i'm doing manufacturing there, all these guys are kowtowing to the chinese president when he was here should they be worried? >> tech companies? neil: any company. >> tech companies have a whole different, talking about like facebook, mark zuckerberg's facebook, they're not even in

china right now. he is still working the table of the state dinner to make inroads with the president to get facebook unblocked or have modified service. a lot of tech companies are reliant on access to the pipes in china. a little bit different in terms of hard commodities or something else. some other business. >> other industries it is a great market. we know the potential of this market. it is not always easy doing business, especially tech companies. dealing with information and intellectual property. but for industrial companies, i don't think it is ever easy doing business in china because of all the bureaucracy and all the games you have to play. but it is a huge market. they are in a downturn. no doubt about that. the question how deep and how hard the landing will be. are we seeing hard landing now? neil: thank you for your patience in enduring this segment. >> yes. why am i going over it again neil you're nashville. >> i love nashville.

where i got my accent. neil: picture this guy 10 years in nashville. we'll have more after this.

neil: all right. finishing this hour with the dow up 82, 83 points. obviously a market that doesn't know what to do. all right? that is my expert read. trish regan. trish: thanks so much, neil cavuto. donald trump moving full steam ahead. i'm trish regan. welcome to "the intelligence report." a live shot from iowa, where donald trump is speaking sounding as confident as ever despite falling into second place in recent national poll. here is he is just moments ago. >> is there any way? honestly, if i did terribly. all of sudden, next day, headlines, may get out. in other words, he may. i didn't say that. i said, in fact my wife said i'm not going anywhere. trish: he said he is not going anywhere.