points. stuart: cruz, that far right? >> no, but more popular than ted cruz. there was an article in the "new york times" that said he was the nominee. stuart: and ben carson has something about health insurance as opposed to health care, subtle difference? out of time. neil cavuto take it away. neil: we're focused on a couple of developments, the corner of wall and broad, we're not far that 18,000 on the dow. it eked into positive territory, it is comfortably doing so on the era of the s&p. keep in mind, we were leaving the third quarter with double digit declines and fears that it would be the first down year for the markets since 2008. way too early to put a cap on this year, but certainly an advance that continues into the month of november. big deals and big money for big deals, driving this, no chump change when you talk about a game that's fetching 5.9 billion dollars in takeover talk.

we're keeping an eye on that, keeping an eye on chipotle, trying to claw back after the e.coli scare, but it is way too early to gauge all of that. way too early to talk about who ultimately will have the center position in next week's fox business network, big development with the big debate and all of the republican candidates. blake burman on outsiders having their way, but a particular one eclipsing a louder one, blake? >> reporter: good afternoon to you. that is indeed right. dr. ben carson comes out on top. donald trump, to keep this in mind and perspective, won eight out of the last ten national polls. several things standard out from nbc news and the "wall street journal." among them the majority of the poll was taken after last week's debate, this is the highest level of support that dr. ben carson has seen on a national level to date. here are the numbers. carson at the top with 29%. trump not too far behind in the "wall street journal"-nbc poll at 23%, and have you another

tier consisting of senators marco rubio and ted cruz, the other to crack double digits is jeb bush. carson well ahead of every other republican when republican voters were asked who they could see themselves eventually supporting. that number 77% for carson. he had the highest combined total for first and second choice at 50%. however, the number that trump can point to is 32%. 32% feel he eventually has the best chance to beat the democratic nominee. trump, a little while ago, was giving a news conference for his book release, that is being released today and pointed the attacks toward carson. take a listen here. >> you look at ben, he's very weak on immigration, and wants to get rid of medicare. ben wants to get rid of medicare. when a man is weak on immigration and wants to get rid of medicare, i don't know

how he stays there. >> reporter: and neil, i'll leave with you. this here's what's so important about next week's debate that you are moderating and others as well. the one thing voters said mattered the most to them, not surprisingly, the economy. and it was overwhelming. neil? neil: amazing, and we're going to delve right into that. thought it would be a good idea. real clear politics caitlin huey-burns on what the ben carson surge could tell us? telling backers he's worth financial support, huh? >> he has raised a lot of money this cycle already. close to 30 million dollars and i believe in the past month alone, he raised 10 million dollars. and these are from really small dollar donors, he's not going to the big financial backers. he's been able to cultivate that grassroots support. i will say, however, it's important to look at what the campaign is spending when they talk about fund-raising.

ben carson has spent a lot of money on cultivating that donor list, and targeting voters through mail, online, that kind of thing, as you know, that's very expensive. and for a first-time candidate, that's something they have to work on. but i will note about carson, he has had a long following. on a book tour right now. people have been lined up for hours to just get a glimpse of him and get a signature from him on their books so he's had the long following from books that he's written in the past. neil: you know what's interesting when you mentioned about new candidates and how much it costs them just to have a campaign on all the expenses just establishing that, so it's not what you gross as a campaign, it's what you net, and that has been the wrap, as you alluded, that is what's costing him a very pricey campaign. not quite as pricey as scott walkers when he was in the race, the governor of wisconsin.

something he's got to watch, he's soaking up a lot of the dollars being raised. >> sure, you have to think of it as an investment. spend the money now to cultivate the donors so they continue to give back, and the advantage of tapping small donors as you sudden you can go back to them again, unlike other donors who max out on contributions. these 10, 20, $30 kinds of donations you can go back and back and back, once you invest in the donor list, return on investment can be pretty big. but the spending now is a lot, and so you have to think that you're going to be in this for the long run to be able to make that pay off. >> you know, caitlyn, all about momentum or the appearance of momentum, if dr. carson can prove i'm raising a lot of money, marco rubio was using the same argument after the debate and it would make a difference, yes, someone like jeb bush has 100 million in the bank. when you talk about cash

cleared and new cash coming in, he falls to fourth or fifth in that regard. carson wants momentum. >> that's such a great point. and another way of fund-raising. so the more you hear about ben carson, the more you hear about how much money he's raising. if you're one of these supporters, you want to get in on that, right? it's another way to invest, and carson is starting to spend a lot of money also on air. i was just in des moines over the weekend and saw at least three billboards with his face on them. >> is that right? >> and his super pac is also doing a lot of advertising that way, so that's important to watch as well. he's kind of all over the place, and, of course, the more you gain in the polls, the more coverage you problems, and so people have been hearing and seeing a lot of him and also been able to really interact with him on the campaign trail. neil: yeah, you are right about that. thank you very much.

lot of you have been asking one week ahead of the big fbn debate how do we decide who sits in the center poll position. it is an average of the polls. dr. carson has eclipsed donald trump he moves to the sdprshgs trump to the side of him, of course, we're not quite at that stage yet, but that alone will get a good deal of attention one week from now. we shall see. keep in mind, what was going on eight years ago at this time when it looked like one john mccain, the former front-runner was gone, dead. rudy giuliani eclipsed him and there are all the other players coming to the fore that looked like they were going to mop the floor with him. that was then. mccain came storming back, on how lightning could strike twice. we pay attention to the moment, who's got the momentum but forget it's a long race. how does this affect someone like a jeb bush for whom it was thought he was the front-runner before everything else

happened? >> well, i mean, certainly two months, from now to the beginning of january, the primary season is eternity in politics, and a jeb bush who has seen star fall somewhat can take comfort in the back of historical precedence, capturing the new hampshire primary and capturing the nomination. there is comfort there, though there is blocking and tack thing that has to happen as well. neil: there are a lot of them, not one or two as with senator mccain. i wonder they're talking about the fire in jeb bush and whether he's up to. that down, not quite out, he's got to come clawing his way back. is he capable of that? >> we'll see. it's an important question. a lot of people have commented upon the sight of john mccain in july of 2007 by himself at national airports in washington, d.c., flying to new hampshire, no staff, no campaign to speak of, and putting himself back in it

literally. and that kind of personal drive, personal energy and fire is essential for becoming president of the united states. it's an incredibly hard job running a campaign and being elected. neil: i hope to god as well some of the people ahead of you stumble. rap against rudy giuliani he took his eye off new hampshire to focus on florida, not the shrewdest of moves. now there are four or five people who would be ahead of him, they have to stumble at the same time, right? >> it is a much more crowded field. mccain had to deal with rudy giuliani, who was ahead. he also had to in florida get ahead of mitt romney, who edged up by that point. and florida victory put him on the path to nomination. when i look at this race, i look at florida as a must-win for jeb bush. this is where he was governor, his home statement but he has a significant rival.

marco rubio. neil: what if either marco rubio or jeb bush win florida, their home stomping ground, and goes to donald trump or ben carson, would that negate the florida effect? i know it's a winner take all state. >> past that. this is going to be much more of a long slog for the republican candidates, bush but the rest included. so many more proportional states where you don't get all the delegates, and they're awarded based on not just proportion of the vote but congressional districts captured. incredibly difficult and arcane practice. there are a lot of political insiders who think we might get to the dimension and not have a clear winner. neil: i paused that at the beginning which makes the speech argument. >> i was referring to you. neil: here's what i was thinking is just math, though, with so many in the race, we're going to have some drop off, and with the proportional, you

know, delegate selection, then what? what if we get to cleveland and there is no clear front-runner. we're working on deals and bets and all that stuff, right? >> as you know, if you get to the convention, your state delegations are bound by the original winner. so if it's a winner take all state for donald trump, they have to vote for trump. once you get the second ballot, all bets are off. you are negotiating with the local precinct captain who said the ten guys that came to dinner want me to vote for ben carson. that's who i'm going to vote for. it could be an incredibly messy and interesting process. neil: it worked for abraham lincoln. i know you weren't around to cover him. >> i don't think i was around to cover him. john mccain would joke he saw it. who knows! >> thank you very much. you know you might have heard

there's a pattern to candidates when they're starlth a presidential run or in the middle of it, a book comes out. the latest is donald trump, and it's a big book and it's a serious cover, but all of that is to send a serious message he is serious about this race. cheryl casone at the big event. hey, cheryl? >> reporter: hey, cheryl -- excuse me, hello neil, good afternoon. this is quite the scene behind me at trump tower on fifth avenue. thousands waiting to line up to meet mr. trump. he arrived to start signing the books and everything. a lot of people are excite. they love donald trump, i want to bring in john right here. john, you are excited to meet with trump today, correct? >> that's correct, correct. >> reporter: what is it that we've seen in the polling is ben carson has come ahead by donald trump by five percentage point, what do you make of that? >> more results in the future, they're going both ways.

you see different polls in the past four days or so. trump has the lead in some polls while carson has the lead in others. trump has more leads than carson does. right now i think it is a wait-and-see what the future holds. >> reporter: he's got to move in the line, everybody is moving in the line. mr. trump is going to be signing exactly 500 books. you can see him in the background, it is a media scrum as you can see. within the last five to ten minutes, once mr. trump arrives, things got really, really intense as far as the crowds and security and everything here. he's signing every single book, neil. he spoke downstairs and we heard a lot of the same things on the campaign trail with mr. trump, about immigration, borders, relationship with mexico, obamacare. he took a lot of hits at marco rubio when he was talking down stairs, but again, a big day for donald trump, and i'm going to leave with you this right now because i'm getting pushed

out of the way. neil cavuto, back to you. neil: thank you, cheryl casone. donald trump signing a book, crippled america, getting ripped for the serious picture of it. but saying these are serious issues and he's worried about america, and obviously that's an instant best-seller. most of his books are. he's one of the more prolific authors of the presidential candidates. among the issues coming up next week if bn will host the next presidential debate, keeping our focus on the economy, jobs, on anything can economic, given the shifting polls, each candidate will be vying about what the polls say about him. if you're donald trump you seize on the fact that you are considered by the most electable. if you are ben carson, you vie the fact for the time being you are number one nationally. they can pick and choose what they want.

we have a lot more coming up, including more news on the russian jet crash over the weekend. our authorities in this country are saying it does not look like it was shot down. fairly unequivocal about that. something happened, something made it blow up in the sky. it could have been something on the plane itself? they're looking into it, and so are we, after this.

. neil: authorities in this country are fairly confident it wasn't a missile that brought down the russian plane. a lot of the travelers that frequent the area over the sinai are avoiding travel in that area. first to connell mcshane on what they did think brought down the russian plane? >> a terrorist act has not been ruled out.

the pentagon official says it was not a missile, it was not antiaircraft fire that brought down the plane, and they say that with just about absolute certainty, so then the focus turns to something certainly, and there are possibilities that do include a bomb, that it could have been a bomb on board the plane. however, that is not a theory that is going -- that they're going with right now without anything else aside from just speculation. it could have been a malfunction of the engine that led to an explosion, could have been a structural problem. something internal appearing to be the focus. whatever it was, it was sudden, the plane disappeared from radar very quickly. there was a midair heat flash detected by u.s. military satellite before the plane came down, they are analyzing that closely to see what they can make of it, and the plane itself did have damage in 2001 when its tail struck a runway. that has long been repaired and

corrected and as we talked about yesterday, neil, the claims by isis, and isis-related group that they brought down the claim are dismissed and the focus is something internal. was it a bomb on board the plane? officials are not willing to go that far just yet, not enough evidence, maybe structural with the engine but something internal rather than external is the working theory now. neil: thank you very much. we know three carriers avoiding the region out of abundance of caution, former u.s. army helicopter pilot amber smith says that is probably a good idea. i was surprised to hear that many were flying over the volatile region to begin with. you could argue the same over ukraine at the time of the malaysian air shootdown, but it is what it is. what do you make of how many were using this route? >> i'm not surprised by it,

airlines aren't likely to react until something happened as we saw with mh-17 over ukraine. airlines should not have been flying over the active war zone and they were, and weren't diverting flight routes until mh-17 was shot down. the fact they are flying over the sinai peninsula in egypt is not necessarily alarming, but it's in the best safety of passengers and crews it. might be a step in the right direction, you can divert air routes all you want around the world sort of to minimize the threat of missiles, but it's not going to help in terms of bombs being inside the aircraft. neil: the argument at time i was told amber for malaysian air not rerouting is that it would have been very expensive and a much longer flight, and obviously much of a pricey one when it comes to fuel. i don't know whether that would have been the case in the sinai for those who would have had to

avoid going over that. but obviously money comes into play. now the better part might be to argues void the area altogether. what do you think? >> well, you know, finances definitely come into play, have you fuel but you also have pilot crew rest policies, and the flight plan itself, so when you change all of that, that all amounts to increase in money to basically get on longer routes, longer flight times, changing crew schedules and flight schedules. so it's just, in terms of safety, the biggest threat is in aviation whether it be maintenance or threat from the ground, it's takeoff and landing, once you're that the cruise altitude, like the aircraft was well above 30,000 feet. that's the safest point in air travel. and so this looks like it was a rapid decompression, whether it be a bomb, fire, maintenance, whether it caused the rapid

decompression to break apart at the high altitude. neil: what do you think happened here? >> i'm very suspicious of some sort of foul play in terms of terrorism. the airport it flew out of in egypt, the egyptian authorities were quick to jump to conclusions it was nothing on their part in terms of security, but i think in terms -- the investigation could definitely go down the path of terrorism, just that part of the world where things like that happen, unfortunately. >> you are right. all right, amber, thank you very much. another statistic i'll leave you folks with, that's interesting. if you avoid trouble spots, in the mediterranean all points east over a 1,000-mile radius, over half the skies are dangerous. over half. all right, when we come back, the latest on chipotle and the e.coli fears. right now the stock and the company seem to be stabilizing, but that's assuming there are

no more problems, that could be a very big assumption, after this.

. neil: all right, just updating you here, the u.s. is set to fine takata, the maker of the air bags that did not deflate properly. $70 million for the lapse that affected 12 different car makers. the fine will be detailed in about an hour and a half with the government announcement on this, but 70 million is a little less than originally expected. they thought the fine could run into the hundreds of millions of dollars. not the case. oil right now bouncing back up a little bit, 2%. when that happens. the energy sector tends to follow, and that is indeed the case today. all right, to ashley webster at the e.coli scare over at chipotle, and they're hoping it's limited to chipotle, but in chipotle's case, they fear the worst is

behind or at least the sightings are behind it, what's the latest? . >> 22 people confirmed, neil. health officials expect the number to grow as more people who hear about the outbreak go to the doctor, not feeling well, and could be confirmed as another e.coli victim, but chipotle keeps these 43 stores in the pacific northwest in washington state and the portland area closed until health officials can figure out where this contamination came from. they're going to do blood tests to identify the strain, there is a belief it could be linked to fresh produce, perhaps lettuce or tomatoes, not meat. that is the latest thinking, but they have yet to come up with a definitive answer. we do have our first lawsuit associated with this. a woman by the name of sharmain mode of north of vancouver

filed a lawsuit in washington state saying she became ill as a result of eating there around october 21st. she had a burrito bowl and now she says she wants compensation for her medical costs, lost wages and other expenses. the suit is seeking $75,000 which seems remarkably low in the era of multimillion-dollar lawsuits. she wants at least $75,000 but will probably ask for more, but that's the first of perhaps what may be more lawsuits as health officials continue to try and track down the source of this, and if it's from a food supplier, the big question is where else did the tainted produc products go and who else is at risk? that is where we stand right now. neil: the latest on the e.coli scare over at chipotle, and hoping it doesn't go beyond chipotle, the fear of tainted beef may have got much wider in the region than was earlier thought.

by the way, when i mentioned oil prices i neglected to mention a potential catalyst, pipeline folks in canada have withdrawn the request to get this approved in the united states. they said to hell with it, gave up on it, waiting for goudeau on the administration to go yea or nay on this. we're told the state department is in the process of sending a response. to add insult to injury, the response is delayed. and you wonder why the canadians and others say look, liberal government, conservative government, the same deal, it's a mess. oil futures trade on the cme, and you might have seen what happened there yesterday, and you think that with the protests there that things would being easing up. the rich and the poor and whether the rich should pay up to help the poor. it's like occupy wall street

2.0, except it's in chicago. big day? ah, the usual. moved some new cars. hauled a bunch of steel. kept the supermarket shelves stocked. made sure everyone got their latest gadgets. what's up for the next shift? ah, nothing much. just keeping the lights on.

(laugh) nice. doing the big things that move an economy. see you tomorrow, mac. see you tomorrow, sam. just another day at norfolk southern.

. neil: all right, as if these protests outside the cme in chicago yesterday weren't bad enough, did any of you watch the carolina panthers and indiana battle the "monday night football." the protesters were unfurling

banner it was a protest against a north carolina energy company backed by bank of america and they hate them, and so it had nothing to do with football or the moment per se , but the stadium and its name, the source of great contention here. my buddy charlie gasparino is minimizing the class warfare, said much the same of the early days of the french revolution. >> what do you want? justice? when do we want it? now. neil: this is new updated stage. melissa francis and lizzie mcdonald. >> what am i doing here? >> i think the biggest story -- >> if you don't know. >> the biggest news story out of this beside the fact i was laughing, look who showed up. do we have the vo of the wonderful human being who showed up. we report, you decide. neil: he said it was him. let's see the vo, do we have

the footage? i want to see not some crummy twitter thing. >> what's your point, charlie gasparino. neil: there he is. >> what do we want? justice. when do we want it? now! >> why is it presence important to you? >> we have viewers, by the way. one of them called me and said you, cavuto and jeff flock missed this thing. ayers, the f palled around with president obama when president obama was involved in chicago politics. neil: but he says he was there? >> we called him, e-mailed him. >> he doesn't take your calls? >> doesn't take my calls. >> i don't hold that against him. goldman sachs doesn't either. bill ayers twitter page he did reach out. neil: that is a cause. melissa what did you make of

this? there is something in the water, the banner thing last night, "monday night football." >> i don't know, i don't think it's gone away, the sentiment has been here for a while. the gap between rich and poor has gone the worse under president obama. that is not an opinion, it's fact from the census bureau, of course people are more agitated and i don't think it ever went away, we continue to see the protests. what's amazing to me is the thing going on in chicago and the cme has to do with pensions that are unfunded which is a politician lying to you and never filling out a bank account. it's like social security, a ponzi scheme. neil: they always take it to the wrong people. >> yeah. >> the institutions that are providing the jobs. >> this financial tax would hit the pensions of cops, firemen and teachers. neil: what do they want to do? >> can i say the irony, government debt security would not be hit with the tax. >> you are all encyclopedias, they want to add pennies to pay

the tax, they say it takes billions to pay for all this. >> neil, the absurdity of this is you have retroguy like bill ayers at this thing, it should tell you when you have a retread like that like at the forefront of a protest like this. >> but it's not natural, spontaneous, not the people protesting it. it's a plan. >> it's a planned leftist attack. neil: i don't buy the tactics or the taxes, i think you are being dismissive. >> what is it called monday? there's a name for this organization, it escapes me. monday protests. i caught flack for that, and she said bill ayer was not part of the formation of it. if he was there, that was great. >> the obama administration said no to this when the eu wanted this financial tax two years ago.

they sent a letter, the u.s. treasury did, they opposed it. jfk opposed it, lyndon johnson opposed it. neil: sounds like easy money, when you hear easy pennies portrayed, raised millions of dollars. >> and say it's coming from the rich traders, the irony is it's hitting the pension funds of the people paying the taxes are being hit. it's ironic. neil: the oil traders in new york moved to chicago because it was getting pricey. >> the cme group could go to jersey or whatever. >> the new york stock exchange, there is a rationale for being there. neil: it's called the new york stock exchange. if they headed to chicago. >> there's a moment, they don't have. that most electronic traders. i think what we're doing is we're feeding the flames of the idiots. neil: no, no, no, no, no,

here's where you're wrong, and melissa leap on this, if you think. the politicians are saying we're going to increase taxes or cut services and we're going to say we are -- our hands are tied, it's not our fault, others escaping responsibility, and that is what triggers this type of wrath. i think they find another culprit, they find another agitator. >> right, and pass the buck down the road. what's amazing is the person who set this up in the first place and created the pension, we go through tolls in new york and the tolls go up and up and up to pay the pensions of people who retired ages ago and new people collecting the tolls. the person who set it up and didn't fund it is long gone and nowhere around. somebody needs to come in and straighten out the system be and honest for people and set it straight for once. >> there's no system to straighten out. >> there is. we can't make the payments,

it's never going to happen and i'm so sorry. >> the politicians have set the economic growth environment over there. neil: that is the leftist agenda that has hillary clinton marching to the left with bernie sanders. i'm wondering in a general election campaign will this resonate. >> hillary is more or less pandering. >> no, no. what should resonate that the ones who are protesting, the worst labor force participation rate since 1973. that's the 18-24-year-olds. >> by the way -- >> who were the protesters? we're told they were bussed in. >> did you listen to the absurdity of those. understanding you're going to explain economics to these folks, you're crazy. >> no, i think they were bussed into protest. >> half of morons and the other are ideologues. >> they are saying i feel i have less money than a few years ago, i feel my paycheck isn't what it needs to be.

neil: you could be getting short tripped. maybe for good reason, maybe a cause to glom onto, i think that anger is real and people are going to get increasingly angry. >> here's the anger of the loonie lefties. >> right, and the trump anger. >> we know it's there. neil: have you seen the book where he's scowling on the cover? >> everybody is furious, like charlie gasparino. neil: what do you make of the polls? >> i think he's starting to lose. everybody in the world predicted it except for us. we took him way too serious. >> you think he's slipping because he's dropped to second. though the same polls show he's the most electable republican? >> i think donald is growing tired of this thing. >> no. i think he's loving it. neil: you are working way too hard, you are so devoid from reality. >> donald trump is relate. neil: yes, he is. don't mock too soon.

guys, thank you all very much. >> did we solve anything? >> i think we did. >> what do we want? justice! when do we want it? now! >> what do we want? gaspo gone! it's james cagney is what it is. i thought it was the late great soupy sales myself. i don't know. why the white house will not rule anything in or out when it comes to keystone. folks gave up on the pipeline and said to hell with the application, we're not going to sit around. and what is probably just irony here, the state department says it will have a response in due course. you can't make this stuff up? after this.

. neil: all right, we've been telling you the folks at transcanada who had the keystone pipeline application in for years now, the state department shelved it. we're taking it out, we can't wait any longer.

i'm paraphrasing there. the state department is awaiting a response to that after years of not giving a response to this. arizona congressman matt simon on that, i think it's a sad turn of events, should have been a yea or nay, but drag it out. it got the transcanada folks annoyed, right? >> frustrated beyond measure. i used to be the chairman over the subcommittee over the western hemisphere and much more intimately involved with the leadership over in canada, but the deal was a win-win. neil: why did they pull it? is it your idea they didn't see this was going anywhere soon, they gave up. is there a strategy to this congressman? >> no, i think they believed that the state -- not the state department but that the white house would actually kill the deal in the next couple of weeks and i think they believed by pulling the application now that they can maybe forestall that bad decision and wait it

out until we get a president that wants to grow jobs. neil: in otherords, by pulling it, you don't have to reapply, in other words, hope that a new president would decide in favor here. was there any sense that you got at least from the white house or the state department that it would be inclined to do this? there had been talks they would do it in stages over certain areas or is the whole thing a moot point and the collapse in oil prices makes it unaffordable for those to be involved in it? >> after the state department's own study showed that the pipeline would have zero effect on greenhouse gases and mightily endorsed the plan and then the president rejected our bill that we pass both in the house and the senate, i think it was really, really clear where the administration was going. they were going to make a decision based on left-wing politics rather than sound science. they saw the writing on the wall and decided to cut the losses. keep the markner place so when

we get a president that wants to grow jobs, that we can start it up again. neil: the irony is canada with a new liberal prime minister and government wanted this done so that and the conservative government agreed on that much. >> there was literally nobody out there but the obama administration, and some of the most left-wing extremists environmental groups out there, fringe elements against the deal. i think all reasonable environmental groups, including the state department's own studies show that it was a healthy project, that it was a win-win for the environment as well as creating jobs. but the obama administration has signaled its opposition time and time again, playing to the ultimate left of their party. neil: sad, very sad. congressman, thank you very much. i think regardless of your position, yea or nay, canada

would deserve a yes or no on this. they're our neighbor to the north, presumably our best friends, and with a liberal government they are due at least. that the company said it's not worth it. i want you to think of the diplomatic implications of that, our closest friend saying to hell with it. we'll have more after this.

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. >> my jeb impression? no, i don't want to do that. i don't like to show a person sleeping at a podium. neil: yikes. donald trump taking a shot at jeb bush, and the fact that bush is in a world of polling hurt right now, despite the fact he entered this race with more money than any of them.

gerry seib going to respond to that. he'll join us a week from now at the big debate. he put him down a number of times but it does serve as a reminder that money can only take you so far. what has happened to jeb bush? >> well, look, this turns out to be not the year any of us anticipated, that's especially true for jeb bush, i think. the tradition of the republican party is the people whose turn has come moved to the front of the line, jeb bush seemed the most experienced guy, the kind of guy republicans gravitate too eventually. this is the guy republicans don't traditionally gravitate to. havi have to say this is early still by historical standards. at this point years ago, rudy giuliani had been ahead for eight straight months, that didn't last december into january. theory of the bush campaign is there are the two lanes, the

outside agitator lane, donald trump and ben carson fit into there and the established lane, that's where the computation is marco rubio in particular. i have to be in that lane and the guy who goes head-to-head with the outsider candidate. neil: the establishment royale is that bush and rubio would fight it out in florida. what happened if neither takes the winner take all delegate state and goes to a trump or carson. that means the battle goes beyond florida? >> yeah, that's where you need all the money the jeb bush super pac has, it's a long slog, and the wild card is ted cruz. he's the guy who can move in both of the candidates and quietly slipping up the polls. we have jeb bush in fifth, not just behind ben carson and donald trump and marco rubio but behind ted cruz, there is another wild card named cruz and hard to know where that goes right now.

the bush people know they have a problem, they are trying to restart the campaign this week. florida is absolutely critical in this equation. neil: jerry, do you get a sense it's not so much the money in the bank but the money you raise that shows momentum that gets the attention? >> certainly that, and that's what we're talking about the morning after new hampshire and south carolina. also the reality as you go through the race it gets more expensive to spend the money, tv time is gobbled up by people. you have to pay a premium to get your voice heard. you have to raise more money going forward even if you have a lot to begin with. neil: jerry, look forward to you and all the folks at the "wall street journal" helping out at the big debate scheduled one week from today. two big debates, back to back, fox business on the business at hand. next stop, what he wants to hear from the candidates that he's not hearing now. technology empowers us to achieve more.

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neil: we told you about transcanada in the request to have the keystone pipeline. completely plummeting over this. unusual. the canadians are trying to say, well, more than a pause. we have been waiting more than a few years for this to just give up. it will have a decision shortly. by the end of barack obama's presidency. adding insult to injury, we are criticizing them for pulling a year-long application to have that thing built. you cannot make this stuff up. you just cannot make it up. they, essentially, said that that is the canadians. we can wake a week awake, we

could await, but we have other things to do. the dow adding about 85, 86 points today. jared leiby is looking at all of this. you are saying a correction is coming. >> i actually pay a lot of attention to specifics. this has been the year that a lot of people have compared to 2011. literally, a move almost identical. one of the things that stands out to me is that we are five plus years into this sort of expansion. s&p growth, earnings growth has been minimal. that is coming from 880 recession. something that they use to

measure value. i look at this and i'm like, okay, we are at and earnings recession. they have been dropping for the last two quarters. stocks are at an all-time high. it does not make sense. neil: all-time highs. cycle highs. terms. you are saying bottom line it is a rich market. we had these corrections. we had them in the third quarter. you stay not nearly enough. >> i do not think that it was nearly enough. i think it was about 12%. another 12 or 11% after that. i think we are going to need another drawdown. they have not raise their efforts. i think if they move lower, we need to be careful. another pullback down. we will see what q4 looks like.

neil: okay. okay. we will see. good seeing you, my friend. big deals. especially when it comes to candy crush. that is the name of the game. to me, the whole thing is stupid. connell is reporting on it. a valuation to a stupid company making a stupid game. connell: the only anchor on fox business that always has his ipad on him. >> actually, it is a meet order. >> there you go. this is a big deal. a $6 billion business deal. 5.9 billion. the company is king digital.

you are right about that. hoping a big bidder would come in. a 20% premium over the close yesterday. they must have a lot of confidence. yes, that must be part of it. for as successful as activision has been, it has not been successful here. that is what king digital brings to the table with candy crush and maybe down the line some other games added to it. it ranks pretty high in the apple store and what have you. here is the stock price today for activision at least. up even with the acquisition by 7%. investors seem to like this deal as well. neil: thank you very much. i am bitter. i had a cheesecake crush.

it never took off. david stockman is here. one of the best economic financial mindset i know. one week ahead of our big fox business debate. i would imagine the stock would be itching to get in there and get some questions on our deficit. overall financial whiz with us now. >> obviously and unfortunately the republican party is broke, dysfunctional and useless. by that, i mean fiscal rectitude. getting our 19 trillion debt under control. free-market capitalism. why? the republican party has been basically hijacked by big government. the only concern about the pentagon budget.

willing to trade anything in domestic policy to support interventions. we saw that last week in the total to pick two laois and on the debt ceiling. basically, they do not understand it is not the government's business what goes on in your bedroom and are so upset by this immigration, building laws and policing every lawyer in the country about whether he is hiring someone that is legal or not that they are missing and are on alike the book. the non-interventionist, the small government budget balances are out in the cold. neil: you think that they would look at polls. all of the support. not been rewarded in the polls for doing so.

i am not saying that it is a justification for not saying anything or doing anything, but there is no upside politically. >> i kind of disagree with that. you have to bash the right way. neil: how would you do it? the war on favors has to stop. if people can now earn 30 basis points in their retirement, nothing on a couple hundred thousand dollars worth of savings, in fact if you saved a quarter of a million, in 40 years of work you are getting interests of one starbucks cappuccino a day. that is what you are getting. i would say tap that rage because there are tens of millions of sabers being crushed who do not want to buy junk bonds. who do not want to go into the

"wall street journal." neil: which candidates speak for them? i was hoping that grandpa would. he has tried to, but his voice is lost in the pack. maybe ted cruz did a little bit last time when finally they brought rick on to tell a relevant question about the fundamental issue of this election and that is are we going to have a democracy or are we going to be controlled by our monetary policy bureau of 12 people that fit in washington and runs -- neil: that appears to be the case. i guess that issue becomes what do we do about it. if we are a glorying everything -- >> i think that we are heading for the wall. despite their arrogant belief they control everything, they

have not repealed a business cycle. seventy-seven of the so-called expansion. now that they have done this to your copout deal, it means -- neil: the budget deal -- >> suspend the budget. there is a lag in this process. you'll not be able to affect the real cash flow. that is 100 months or more into a expansion. neil: donald trump raised an interesting argument today. this is all politicized. janet yellen. >> janet yellen is highly political and she is not raising rates for a very specific reason.

because obama told her not to because he wants to be out playing golf in a year from now and he wants to be doing other things and he does not want to see a big bubble burst during his administration. >> well, obama did not have to tell her. he is right direction only. janet yellen is a big government interventionist liberal. she believes that giving people free money indefinitely is somehow going to cause wealth. neil: we do not have the room to raise interest rates. so tenuous. you may change. >> i think that it is nonsense. it is baloney. the cost of money. they had it at zero now for 82 months and they are threatening to go another six or seven until

next march. when you have free money for 90 months, you are sowing the world windows population like you have never seen before. that is why you see these markets turn around the way they do. this is not price discovery anymore, this is just one giant casino that is fueled by free overnight money that the people who run the fed are afraid to death that if they allow the market to set interest rates there would be a hissy fit on wall street and the world. the speculators are calling to the tune. the people that believe the market goes up day in and day out, come how or high water, do anything, sacrifice any principle, if we need to have a bigger deficit, let's have it. neil: what do you make of these

protests that have been going on? the one in chicago yesterday. tax trades, these rich fat tax are getting away with murder. a separate incident at a monday night football game. there is anger at corporate america. it is more widely spread them before. what is behind this? >> i think it goes back to the question you asked before. the republican party is missing the boat veered they should be going after the regime. the current regime is wall street and the fed having a giant party that created a massive run-up and financial asset values while main street has struggled and barely moved from where it was at the turn-of-the-century. that policy has to change. we need to get the fed out of wall street. we need to allow --

neil: into replaces it weird the market. neil: the same market that you hated. >> the market is domesticated by free money. neil: how would you control rates? >> the heart of capitalism is millions and millions of people taking a look at the facts and deciding what that price ought to be. we do not need 12 people setting the price of money. we do not need 12 people try to manage big yield curve or try to generate wealth effects so people think they are richer and spend more money and make growth happened. this is nonsense. something that i thought we had killed in the early '80s. now it is back. unfortunately, the republican party is a deer in headlights.

they do not even know they got overrun by this regime that is, for the moment, kind of, you know, full of the country, but when the next bubble blows, they will be coming with pitchforks and torches. the 15 it is the democrats election to lose. you could say like that. >> if it stays like this. they could keep the bubble inflating. it is not because janet yellen is getting a call from obama. she does not need much. she is going to do it anyway. do we have any hope that this will change? i do not see much hope. neil: every president has a political agenda when he picks his fed chief. >> that is what is wrong with the fed. we do not need a fed

micromanaging the economy or interest rates or pegging the price of money and debt and stock and everything else. that is what free markets are for. if we do not get back to that, i think it will be very difficult. neil: no matter who is black did a year from now, that is a person who is facing all this hell. >> oh, yeah. it will be one firestorm. one nasty morning after because we have been kicking the can ever since 2008. supposedly, we had a wake up call in september 208. instead of facing the fundamental problems confronting this country, we simply allowed allow the fed to open up the spigot. massively increase its balance sheet. by a few years before the next disaster holds. neil: in the meantime, you may want to -- the dow is updated

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call today at see car insurance in a whole new light. liberty mutual insurance. neil: albright. you may have heard about donald trump and the remarks at a book signing today. janet yellen doing bidding on interest rates under direct orders from the president. she has kept interest rates at or near zero. the administration disagreed with that. the administration goes to great lengths to make sure the federal reserve can make on a terry decision solely on the interest of the economy and prevent data from narrow consideration. it would have been funny, though. that did not veered that did not happen.

again, another thing that would not surprise me when giving media reaction to something or the administration reaction to something, it is an incredible event that the media ignores. this is the benghazi hearing. a key issue behind that attack that took down ambassador stephens and three others. she lied at the time. she said it was all perpetrated by a video. she knew day of. she took the best the republicans throughout her. editor and chief. it is like it never happened. that revolution was never established. it is weird. what do you think of it? >> she is just going to keep ignoring it. working at this last mission

over benghazi. what exactly happened. why these americans were killed. hillary clinton being a good candidate. they said, all right. this case is close. the investigation is over. now, ignored about its hundred security quests and libya. and afterward ignored libya saying it has nothing to do with the video. neil: the media was amazed by that. she was being picked apart. even when republican questions out veered no reaction. >> trey gaudi was in a tough position. the republicans on trial. also because some of the fellow had handed the football ready. neil: that revelation is out

there. kind of a big deal. no other gloves were being laid on her. that was a transit 180. i do not know whether it was benghazi or people said can it change now. what difference does it make? >> he has been caught red-handed . it seems like regardless of what anybody said they wanted to cover their butts. they were recovering gun smuggling. it was not what was going on in libya. it was getting guns to syria, protecting cia operations and they were going to say anything they possibly could will guard as to what people were streaming on the ground. keeping that out of media.

neil: that republican was caught in a boldfaced lie. it would have been a different cover on the "new york times" the next day. >> incredible. just incredible. thank you very much. all right. you have probably heard transcanada, the company behind the keys don't pipeline, withdrew its request. the administration kind of had the nerve to say, well, we do not understand what this is about. we were going to make a decision. what if i told you there was another factor. the cost to do this thing just isn't there. the administration may have known that all along. i think they call that running out the clock. i think. ♪

. . . .

neil: watching cme protests we were getting scared. phil flynn popped in. i thought he was one of protesters or like french revolution thing that they were targeting him. he was saying how foolish it was directing it at wrong people. this is very brave men, the guy covering oil markets for us at cme i hope he has protection. very good to see you again. >> thank you. neil: they're talking about doing this again. they're not done. they think the guys who you cover behind you there are, they cough up a couple of penny as trade and solve the chicago financial ills and state of illinois financial ills. what difference would it make. what do you think of that? >> it would make a huge difference because a lot of these guys wouldn't be here. would be in florida or indiana.

you know what? i talked to a lot of people there. i'm ready for the next debate because i found one of their chant sheets at thing. very well-done. we want, what do we want? so i'm ready for the next one. there were a lot of good people. i think when we had some open debate they could see a lot of my points. started to do make sense to them a little bit. listen, i think their hearts are in the right place. they have just been sold a bill of goods where the real problems are. the real problem is really in the state of illinois. the legislature. you're years of corruption we've had in the state of illinois. not unheard of, not a surprise that the illinois state government and has had a lot of corruption. we're paying the price for that right now. neil: seems like the anger isn't directed at politicians who caused this, made all of sudden who made all unfunded liabilities reality. it is at guys providing revenue,

what there is of it, for chicago, for illinois. >> right. neil: and i always think it is misdirected, the way the media plays it. >> it is misdirected and people are angry but i will tell you what. it is so difficult to do business in illinois, you can go to ileana and illinois, i know people are trying to bring businesses to illinois, they throw up their hands. the process that we have to go through, so much easier to deal with another state that we're losing businesses. the other thing is, since beginning of the year, illinois has lost 70 businesses to indiana. indiana is trying to really capitalize on the mess that we have here in illinois. and they are openly attracting businesses. they are doing everything. they're running tv ads. they're running billboards. move yourself to state that works. move to indiana. why stay in illinois. i hate to say it, a lot of illinois businesses are starting to listen.

neil: amazing. phil flynn, thank you very much. >> thank you. neil: phil and i were chatting. getting news on jon stewart going to hbo, part after four-year production deal developing digital content for hbo. statement from the comedian, he had hosted "the daily show" since 1999, appearing 22 minutes a night. nearly broke me. i think i can produce a few minutes of content every now and then. no details how soon it would be available. but for time warner, hbo parent, that stock is up about 2%. not exclusively on this news but probably for hbo would be welcome news. not so welcome news for the canadians when it comes to its big energy provider, simply bowing out of the keystone pipeline waiting for response from the united states yea or nay. dave main any on that and impact is going to have.

essentially, transcanada, dave, said hell with it, we can't wait any longer so we pulled orlication. tumbling gas prices ultimately dictate this? >> i think this got taken out by a perfect storm, neil. the energy markets were biggest factor. as you know the tar sands up in alberta are a high cost source of crude oil. they make sense when the prices are highest, that is when that whole production regime kicks in. so the rationale for, for that production area has lessened as prices have fallen. you've seen major oil companies pulling out of projects up there and times are tough up in alberta. so that is the biggest factor. you have politics on both sides of the border. you have the obama administration obviously which has been roadblocking the thing forever, but now you have this very interesting change in canadian governments to a government, which as i heard you say earlier, nominally supports

the pipeline and yet he, i think that philosophically the trudeau government is going to be very much aligned with the obama government. and i would not be at all surprised if there was not a back room, cross-border conversation where trudeau basically said, hey, look, how about if i get these guys to withdraw these things because i don't really want to be seen as you, dumping on me, mr. president obama? neil: that is interesting. he backed him but harper government, he was replacing made it divisive issue. it wasn't worth it. you might be right. that might be it behind the scenes. >> it was never vociferious. he was not champion pipeline. he opposed another pipeline they wanted to build to the british columbia coast. they have significant problems with safety. remember the giant train derailment that killed 47 people in quebec. he is straddling every side of this issue, mr. trudeau is. neil: yeah. thank you very much.

very good having you. we told you at start of the broadcast ben carson is surging in the polls. he is number one pick among republicans nationally now he has to dot some is and cross tom ts with a plan that might tax that popularity. we'll see. equals pretending to know wine. pinot noir, which means peanut of the night.

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at ally bank no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like shopping hungry equals overshopping. neil: his opponents like to dismiss him as "dr. no" there

there. dr. carson is not giving up that position. if anything he continues to get more money and continues to feel pressure now that he is the most talked about candidate in the republican party, to have to put ideas to paper, including a health care plan that he has been rolling out over the last couple of days that calls for jettisoning the president's obama care plan. that is nothing new. the way he goes bit is already getting raised eyebrow responses from some of his rivals who claim it is too simplistic. regardless, katetee pavlich, whether less is more to surging candidates. they leave themselves open, katy katie he wanted to get rid of obamacare, medicaid, medicare, junk it for a 2,000-dollar per year american voucher system. he dialed that back. maybe he has provided more clarity here or maybe he hasn't.

>> he has a hard time explaining how health savings accounts plan work with medicare and medicaid and obamacare. neil: first, medicare and medicaid were going to go. he realized that was a nonstarter. these are adjustments to candidates make but it's a big one. >> this is a big one. it cuts both ways. first way it cuts, ben carson is at the front of the pack. we have new polling out today that he is beating donald trump nationally. what does that mean? voters, primary voters in particular expect some kind of plan from him on main issue which of course is health care. he rose to fame because he took on president obama to his face on obamacare, right? the other way this cuts, look he has come out with that plan and getting asked very specific questions how it is going to work in the real world. he has had some trouble answering those questions. when you're at the front. line, you will not only get attacked by republicans but those on the left that do support obama care. neil: one thank is appealing to

him, i talk to a broadest pair rat group of people, conservatives, liberals, one thing they like about ben carson so different, is so outside of the political pietri dish because he is not part of the political pietri dish. they criticize him, that he has not enough smarts but he smarter than the all candidates put together but in a they find that endearing like a friendly doctor that resonates. how long did you think that lasts? >> just depends how well he can answer these questions and whether people care about the details of the plan he gives. people have embraced this idea that ben carson is an outside player. he doesn't talk about politician and doesn't expect him to. republicans want a politician and non-politician would explain something in politician way, they get up in arms saying they

are not fit for the job. gotten past that, he wants someone from outside speak and act like they're on the outside and ben carson is one of them. neil: katie, this love affair has gone on longer than these typical political flings we get in the off-season if you will because he has been going on long every and thriving in the polls longer as is donald trump and both of those guys put together represent more than half of the republican voting sentiment. >> right. neil: which says something about this, let's go outside the pietri dish mentality, right? >> the danger here, neil, that we're now seeing plans that maybe not night work in the real world in terms of merging what is already in place. we can't discount this idea that we do have obamacare in place. the health care system in this country is very complicated. it is not simplistic. the danger putting someone into the position and have them be over their heads to get a plan that can actually work. at the same time things are not

working here in d.c. they haven't worked for a long time. congress doesn't seem to know what to do with the health care system in this country. ben carson is offering new plan. he will have to explain how it will affect people in very individual basis and how it will affect their family and make their health care better. we know over the past couple years, prices increase, seen their health care go away as a result of another big government complicated program. neil: yeah, but can always fall back on i'm a doctor. i'm a doctor. >> i am a doctor, i know everything. he is brain surgeon. one of the best kind. neil: scary smart kind. we'll see how it sorts out. katie, thank you very much. >> thanks, neil. neil: we've been long following the volkswagen story on rigged emissions, on software in cars and a lot people weren't worried about, it is some volkswagen models. isn't the top tier line. along came the news it involves porsche as well. that changes everything. because every porsche owner in the world, started calling, my

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if legalzoom has your back.s, over the last 10 years we've helped one million business owners get started. visit legalzoom today for the legal help you need to start and run your business. legalzoom. legal help is here. neil: we are expected to hear that $70 million fine the company plans to exact on takata with airbags that didn't work and affected a dozen automakers. that announcement coming at top of the hour. we're keeping awe abreast of the other development of the volkswagen scandal. this has moved up the food chain to porsche owners as well. gerri willis here to sort it out. how big does this group. >> this group includes 10,000 cars, includes names you

wouldn't have heard like porsche cayenne, suvs, diesel cars, diesel engines. taurig, 2014 volkswagen. cayenne. audi a6 quattro. audi q5. very popular cars. neil: did they have all the same ignition charge? >> great question. volkswagen is saying to the epa. you are wrong. we didn't put in the lame software that is supposed to lie to the federal government in those cars. there is big disagreement what happens next. they recalled 11 million cars, 480,000 here in the united states of america but who knows what will happen with this group. you have to start wondering, maybe the testing, emissions tests themselves that may be part of the problem here? neil: so that, software know, are testing this? >> well, my question is because volkswagen sy is aing, this particular software did not try to cheat the exam. that we put --

neil: on these other vehicles or on originals? >> on these vehicles in the spotlight today, these 10,000 cars. that is not what happened here. so now they are pushing back for the first time. they did not push back at all first time around. if you remember, they immediately got on the case tried to get to the bottom of it. the ceo was fired. but this time around they're saying hey, you're going to far here. i think we'll have to wait and see what the reality is. but epa saying that you have nine times the allowable nitrogen oxide emissions in these cars. now, if you're consumer today and wondering what to do, the reality is, your safety is not at risk. that is not an issue here. this is emissions issue. right? neil: you're choking them, right? >> not the takata airbag that might blow up inside of your car. neil: very good point. >> hurting with you sharp and pointy metal objections. neil: thank you very much, gerri willis. we were talking with ken langone yesterday.

p he is big chris christie supporter. don't follow the money, follow the pizazz. he says chris christie has pizazz. unfortunately chris christie doesn't have a lot of money. which one is out, pizazz or money? after this. can a business have a mind? a subconscious. a knack for predicting the future.

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there is nobody better than him, nobody. neil: all right. well, chris christie might still be kind of hurting in the polls. though he has moved up. he can count his blessings with friends like that. ken langone, cofounder of home depot, gazillionaire many times over. charlie gasparino, whether that alone will help the new jersey governor, especially a lot of new money seems to gravitate to marco rubio and now ted cruz and ben carson? >> we should sort of delineate what ken said there. a million dollars is not a lot of money. you have to raise it all the time. it's a grueling process, marco rubio within 24 hours. >> if they raised it or commitments. we don't know yet. he is right, not in the scheme of things in presidential campaign you have to raise 2 billion between traditional and super-pac.

neil: scott walker raised a lot of money but had commence sieve -- >> ken is being sort of unfair is about, clearly the momentum is moving in rubio's direction, in terms of the big money thinking that he could be the establishment candidate. it is moving away from jeb. it was never in christie's camp unfortunately until, i mean i guess at one point some of it was because it was ken. i would like to see how much ken is raising for christie right now. neil: you ever think, charlie, had trump not entered race, never entered the race, that could have gravitated, that attention could have gravitated to christie? >> right. sort of unconventional attention. listen operative question to ask ken, how much money have you raised for christie lately. i have to tell you i have not asked him that. i should have ask him. my friends in the republican establishment he would hit up, same people he hit up to raise money which was very good thank for the st. patrick's cathedral

are not taking those calls. neil: it is early and polls can change. >> no. it is not polls. they're not getting fun raising calls. neil: doesn't one beget the other? >> sometimes but you would think -- neil: attention of names i mentioned? >> moving towards, just, let's talk about now. momentum moving towards rubio. also, some moving towards cruz. we talked about this yesterday. ted cruz was in the functional equivalent for the south of wall street. north dallas, north texas, where a bunch of very seasoned fund-raisers, met him, extremely impressed. he probably raised in one shot $250,000. neil: has very lean organization. >> he has jack welch here in new york, former ge -- neil: very influencal. >> that is where momentum is now among the candidates where fund-raising -- it could change. it's early. one thing i will say, people are astounded. i hear this all the time. they are astounded at jeb's

standing right now. that he has not been able to basically, you know, get more momentum in the polls. here is the other thing that i will tell you from the establishment. this is kind of interesting. everybody in the establishment believes that, i'm not saying they will be accurate. this is their prediction. trump will drop out. ben carson will drop out. this is firtation. neil: going on for a while. >> if you talk to them, they have no reason to bs me in private. neil: sure they do. >> not in private. neil: use you like a fiddle. >> look how well it works. just telling you what they're saying in private. neil: okay. very good. look forward to be with you in milwaukee. >> till will be fun. no any italian restaurants. neil: like kielbasa with garlic. >> milwaukee is beautiful town. neil: we'll have more right after this.

neil: take a look at the dow,

close to 18,000. all worries in the world whether this is overhyped. conjecture making $6 billion for maker of "candy crush" game. be that as it may, bidding up prices higher and higher we go. trish regan, through the next hour. trish: up and away. donald trump inning ante as he takes on his toughest competitor, ben carson. this is "the intelligence report. retired neurosurgeon ben carson has six-point lead. first "wall street journal" poll since june, someone other than trump leading pack. separate poll conducted by reuters shows trump is still number one with majority of voters saying they trust trump most on economy and nuclear weapons. trump apes top spot is in question. he is fighting back. saying carson can't cut