>> how is that different for 2016? stuart: i'm going to do more of it next year. neil cavuto, you want to pass any comment on moi? neil: let me understand this, you're going to get cheaper in the new year? stuart: yes. neil: all right, well, that's a fox news alert right there. welcome to america, my friend. in the meantime, we are watching new year's celebrations from the other side of the planet, bangkok, thailand, the latest to ring in the new year. times square is also getting ready for the big movement, as stuart pointed out about 12 hours away, but you would not know it. there are thousands of folks already standing in these pepped-up areas -- penned-up areas, and they're going to be there for the rest of the day. they cannot leave these areas, the ones who have chosen to wait this out. twelve hours standing up, you cannot leave, you can't take a potty break. depends, that's all i can think of.

it's gotta be depends. all right, we're also again keeping you alert on all this concern that something bad that could happen. a rochester man just pled guilty to attempting to provide material support to isis. and the plan was to blow up a bar in the rochester, new york, area. we're getting some of the details here, but suffice it to say there was a new york attack planned. not in new york city, apparently in rochester, new york. when we get more, we'll pass that along. we're also keeping a close eye on the dow. it looks like it's going to be a herculean climb to get to a positive year which means that this would be the first negative year since 2008. so despite about an 8% sungar in the quarter -- surge in the quarter, it might not be good enough to bring us into positive territory on the year. lori rothman with more from the new york stock exchange.

>> reporter: hi, neil. stocks roaring back on this final trading day of 2015. we've pared gains by about a half, the dow is down by just about 60 points, oil up 75 cents a barrel, and as you know, oil's been the story all year. let's look back at our trends since 2008, right? we were just coming off the financial crisis, the dow was down almost 34%. that was a tough year. it's been gains since then until this year. but right now the dow's only down just over 1.5%, and as i mentioned, the dow is coming back, though we still need about give or take 300 points if the dow to break even on 2015. but we're down nearly as much as we were back in 2008 when times were much tougher considering the football crisis, and we -- the financial crisis, and we doesn't know where we were going from there. but in terms of this year, it's really been the story about oil and oil prices falling, and that's really weighed across the broader america. energy is one of the weakest

sectors today, you're looking at the 2015 dow losers. sales at wal-mart down 28%, american express, caterpillar, all down a quarter, 25% on the year. so a tough year, but the s&p holding on slightly, that's just about break even right now, neil. we still have half the trading deal ahead of us. neil: you know, i didn't get a thank you note from mcdonald's, because i told them if you do breakfast all day, you're off to the races. nothing. not a certificate, not a coupon, nada. >> reporter: i'll let 'em know. [laughter] neil: gerri willis now on some of the lagging sectors for the year. what have you got? >> we're looking at the s&p which looks like it's going to fall three-tenths of a percent, and if that index falls into -- continues in negative territory, it will be the first time in four years. it's had a three-year run of positive finishes. this would be ending that cycle. let's take a look at the stocks here, the winners. netflix, amazon and invidia.

netflix riding that media-streaming wave, it's up 139%, amazon up 122%. as we saw earlier this year, just a few days ago, they announced they signed up three million prime members in just a single week in december, and invidia makes chips, graphic processers, it's up 67%. so if you were in consumer technology this year, you had a good chance of doing well. the losers, as lori was just saying, energy, energy u energy. take a look at this. chesapeake energy, the single worst performing dow stock or, pardon me, s&p 500 stock down 78%. this company's bonds are trading at 25 cents on the door. console and southwestern both down 77%. and if you want to look at the sectors here, this is fascinating. consumer discretionary up 9% here, names like mcdonald's, home depot doing very, very well as consumers begin to open their wallets a little bit more.

and, of course, the energy sector down 24%. the sector lost $230 billion in market cap this year. it's been a real washout for that sector. neil, back to you. neil: wow. that's wild. the oil thing, to your point, this would be the first, i think, back-to-back years we've seen oil decline since 1998, so not a good harbinger. jeff flock on that wild oil ride. what have you got? >> reporter: yeah, it was the asian economic crisis in the late '90s was the last time we had two years like this back to back x it's all commodities. i'm actually in the soybean options pit. these guys behind me back there, they definitely know beans, but this year everything driven by oil. we just did the computation, oil prices compared to this time last year down 37%, and, or you know, gerri mentioned the overall energy sector not down quite as much.

u.s. shale oil production actually given the terrible state of prices actually has hung on, and production has continued. that's one of the reasons things like gas prices continue to come down. that was another big story this year. take a look at the average right now, $2 a gallon nationwide, according to aaa. $2.26 this time last year, and day that say this is the cheapest gas, they just announced this today, aaa saying cheapest gas we have had on average for a year in ten years. and their forecast for the future is that gas prices will continue to come down. it might be even lower on average next year. 71% of u.s. stations now charging below $2 a gallon. that's got to help consumer discretionary even more at some point, maybe. neil: jeff, two things i'm noticing. you can cut the tension with a knife, obviously -- [laughter] looking at the people behind you. [laughter] and secondly -- >> oh, that was cold. neil: -- this is the longest,

jeff, you have just stood in one place for a report. [laughter] you are that good. you're skiing or running or in a luge or something. man, this is a record in and of itself. what do you think? >> reporter: i'm getting old to. [laughter] i'm getting old. these guys back here, they know beans though. they know their beans. nell nell tell -- neil: tell 'em to relaxes, take it easy. jeff, you are the best and a trooper. >> reporter: happy new year. neil: in the meantime, we kept referring to, and i think it's important, 17,823.07. she pounded that number because that would be the number to beat to be into positive territory. the aforementioned liz claman is here, trish regan is here, charles payne is here. look, the point was we don't cross over that number, we're looking at the first negative number since 2008. >> you thought the guys behind jeff flock were hysterical and crying and weeping, it's going to be terrible.

this is the year of nothing much happened except, of course, the crash in oil. and then anybody who was smart enough to short oil got a 74% jump in what they put into that. neil: wow. >> you guys have to look at what you're doing with your money and say what's the herd doing, it's not necessarily the right thing. so we don't make that number, it's not the worst thing in the world. we've seen this story before. neil: yeah. interesting argument is one down year doesn't make it automatically follow with a a down year, but it does cut a string of achievements. if you're barack obama and looking at this, you're saying, hey, every year under my leadership the dow has been advancing, this'll be the one year it doesn't. it's still more than doubled, actually, close to tripled. >> and trees don't grow to the sky. neil: absolutely. what do you think? >> i'm surprised we have not yet seen a better pick-up in the overall american consumer. it really tells you, i think, that we are in a serious case of economic malaise. when you think of that drop, we were seeing 24% drop in oil,

that should have translated into more money in people's pockets, that should have, therefore -- neil: makes you wonder, where would we be without it? in other words, there was some spending. where would we have been without it? >> probably in worse shape. but i don't think american psychology is back to where it needs to be. i don't think people are feeling good about the economy. they're not feeling good about their future, their neighbors' future, their friends' future and, consequently, they're not out spending. let's not forget, spending is the underbelly of the american economy. you need that to be growing, and it's not, neil. neil: what do you think, charles? >> yeah. it's not economic malaise, but overarching malaise, economics just happens to be one string of it, to your point. even consider that credit card debt is not back to where it used to be, all-time highs. i think you do have a large part of our populace are people who lived through the great depression, they will never, ever put it out there like they did before. they just won't. neil: so burnt from the

meltdown -- >> right. then i think there's a larger part who are so unsure of leadership in this country. and this is not -- this is a pox on both houses. they don't know what the heck is going to happen, they are so afraid. those few bucks they saved at the gas station went right under the pillow or a coffee can. it's an overarching malaise not unlike when jimmy carter was president. by the way, there's also a thing i call backward prosperity. it's one thing to have bucks in your pocket because gas is cheep, it's another thing to have it because you have a raise. >> presidential electionsing though, neil, tend to have a massive impact on stocks. if we spin it forward to the future, they usually, on balance, do way better in the four-year cycle. this could or could not be the situation, but right now we have that global economy -- neil: right. >> you can't literally say, oh, only my left arm has lyme disease. dude, the rest of your body has lyme disease, and you have

global trade down 14% year-over-year. so if the rest of the world is sick, the u.s. can't go out jogging a marathon. neil: so you're worried that this follows to worse things. >> yeah -- not worse, but just malaise. >> there was a time when the world hitched its wagon to us so that when they were sort of sickly, we were the well part that got the rest of the body well. so even that statement in and of itself shows that we're not the preeminent powerhouse that we once were. doesn't mean we can't get back there, but there was a time when, hey, if america -- neil: more like the tallest midget in the room, right? >> i think that's what we are now. neil: trish, if we do have a down year, and lizzie was bringing up presidential election cycles, usually the year before the market's up. a lot of people seize on that and say, uh-oh. >> you think about that, that is a challenging narrative for hillary clinton to overcome. because she's part of that.

she's part of the obama administration. it's a carry-on, and so she's really going to have to convince americans that she can do better, that she can actually -- neil: but isn't that a kicker, if you think about it? the eighth year for bill clinton brought us a recession, the eighth year for barack obama could bring us a recession. we know for george bush the eighth year brought calamity. but, you know, presidential -- >> it's interesting you're saying recession. i mean, that's going to be a big question this year. are we actually in a position where we're going to see two quarters of negative growth. i was talking about economic malaise, could it be actual -- neil: what do you think? do you think this is a recession year? >> i think there are individual pockets of recession already in this country. neil: that's not what i asked, you dodged it. >> overall, we're not in a recession. neil: he does this all the time. [laughter] >> this is lackluster recovery. i mean, listen, 1.5%, 2% gdp growth, that's not -- neil: what do you think, liz? >> oh, no.

because the fed is starting to tighten interest rates, you've started to see the market move slightly higher. the nasdaq's done pretty well. neil: you're right. >> nasdaq will be up for the year. [inaudible conversations] >> i'm going to go out on a limb and say the over/under here, there is a stronger chance that we could be heading there than not. i think that the fundamentals are not strong for this economy, and you can't just keep hobbling along with no growth. you've got a fed that has acted so aggressively for the last years, and yet no real inflation, to your point, no inflation in wages? >> why do we want higher prices? i know that's the conventional -- >> yeah. neil: we want more of a raise. >> higher wages, that's it though. but in pricing, you want to keep things less expensive. >> i guess people feel like, you know, classic 101 inflation, right? more money chasing fewer goods. people would love to get that, you know? we're getting higher prices, at least let's get a higher paycheck, you know?

neil: which is when he starts angling for a raise. [laughter] >> i am entering a contract year. [laughter] neil: by the way, i do want to alert you, a lot of people ripped me a new one when i panned the "star wars" movie. well, i want to awaken you to this force: george lucas thinks it's stupid. did you hear me, folks? all you idiots dressing up, and you're grown men? he thinks it's stupid. after this. bring your family and friends together

to discover the best shows and movies with xfinity's winter watchlist. later on, we'll conspire ♪ ♪ as we dream by the fire ♪ a beautiful sight, we're happy tonight ♪ ♪ watching in a winter watchlist land, ♪ ♪ watching in a winter watchlist land! ♪

xfinity's winter watchlist. watch now with xfinity on demand- your home for the best entertainment this holiday season. neil: all right. i want to take a quick peek at times square. a billion people are going to be watching this tonight when the ball goes down, but already thousands are stuffed in there. and i want you to see these holding pens behind these gates. a lot of those people who are waiting for the ball to drop, they had to get there very

early, some of them yesterday afternoon or, i kid you not. and they have to stay there. they cannot leave there. so -- or they lose their spot, and then they don't get that back. so you're there, for some of them better than 24 hours without taking a potty break. so you just picture what that's like. but it's a moment, and, obviously, they feel it's worth being there. but, you know, police and everyone who was checking the packages and everything else, any bags, you can't have them going in there. you can imagine the angst ahead of this big event amid security alertses and now this revelation in rochester, new york, they nabbed a guy who wanted to blow up a bar in rochester, new york, with a message from isis. david katz is with us, global security group ceo, on all the security tightening. we already know, david, they abandoned plans for new year's eve celebrations or at least big ones in belgium. other cities are scaling things back.

in new york it's business as usual, but what are they looking for? what prompts a city or community to say, no, no, no, we're not going to risk it? >> i think overall it's, i guess, their confidence in the personnel they have on the ground. in new york city they've been doing this for many, many years. one of my business partners -- in our truly remarkable company, by the way -- used to work this detail and was talking about exactly the dynamic you were mention. people go into pens, they're there sometimes for 24 hours. anyone is screened anywhere near the area, so there's a high level of confidence that the new york city police department and all the associated agencies will keep this event a safe and enjoyable one for everybody. neil: i did notice those going into pens, they weren't taking bags from everybody this morning, very early. but those going into those standing areas, whatever you want to call them, they did take their bags away. but it's a little on cooler side, so they do have coats.

i mean, how do they handle that? any nut job could strap god know's what to hymn or herself. how do they check for that? >> that's exactly the conversation we were having in the office this morning. certainly, someone could put a jacket on, walk up to a checkpoint and detonate. but they're going to be asked to open their coats. screening is done with a combination of technology and human intervention. so you look for people who look out of place, they don't look like the normal, ordinary holiday reveler. could someone walk up at a peripheral point prior to getting into the secure area and cause some problem? yes. there's no way to avoid that. but they're not going to get in beyond that point with anything. is that's the -- so that's the goal, if you will, make sure that secure area is safe for everyone to watch the ball drop. neil: dave, despite this announcement of this arrest of a guy in rochester, new york, who was apparently planning to blow up a bar, something like that,

the justice department is saying there are no threats to the u.s. homeland or no specific, credible threats. what gets them to the point of being specific and credible versus just chatter or, in this guy's case, an involved plot? >> it's anytime any evidence, whether it's informant information or technological intercepts reach the level where people say, this is serious. school closures, someone e-mails a threat in, that's a threat, of course, but it's not a specific, credible threat. if it's specific information detailing the place of the incident, that's taken seriously. by the way, that's not a threat, it's information. isis is not going to threaten us and say we're coming to this location, we're going to harm you. they're going to take credit after the attack. what they're going to do or the way they actually assess the threat is information that's not coming from the people making

the threats, information that they're monitoring their communications or informant information. it's that kind of information that they're going to put together and judge. neil: i gotcha. david, thank you very much. have a safe new year yourself. >> happy 2016. neil: all right, see you as well. in the meantime, with this cooler weather, we've got nat gas prices up again. keep in mind, it's fairly cheap, so any slight movement means it's a big percentage move. it is up 7% today. stick around. this is the one place we're not afraid to fail.

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neil: all right. wild weather is just the name of the game for much of the country, particularly the south. trying to dry out after all these floods, meteorologist rick reichmuth on what's happening right now for much of the country. what have you got, rick? >> this is going to be one of the slow pain scenarios where we watch the river very slowly move down. right now getting ready to crest around the st. louis area. the third highest we've ever

seen. we're going to be breaking the record ever for the mississippi river valley, and when you think about some of the floods that we've had that have been so memorable for so many of us, we're going to be talking about that same scenario. the one good news is we don't have a lot more rain coming in the area over the next week, but we do have some very cold temperatures, unfortunately. so as the water goes down and people get back into their homes, this is what you are going to be dealing with temperature wise, at freezing or below. want to take you through the rest of the country. here's what we've got going on for today. any kind of precipitation, it's new i year's eve -- new year's eve, a little bit of leftover rain across parts of the carolinas, some upstate new york snow, but the rest of the country, i tell you what, you're looking good. st. louis area, much of missouri, no real precipitation to speak of. this you see here is at the very

end of the period, and at this point it doesn't look like all that much. all the action is out across parts of the west, and saturday into sunday the next system moves on in. we're going to get some very good precipitation that we desperate lit want to see. here's -- desperately want to see. temperatures today not all that bad. still chilly where they're flooding unfortunately, neil. neil: have a happy new year, rick reichmuth. well, river in missouri and swelling the waters period a big issue there, of course, jay nixon, the governor, already bringing in the national guard to help keep the calm and to help people who might be in distress and rescue them from floods or at least get them and in out of things. missouri county commissioner, what's the latest there? how are things looking? >> the river is predicted to drop about two foot, and that will help us out a lot because the record break was in '93 with

49.7, and now the prediction is 48.5. neil: wow. holy toledo. the governor was urging folks two days ago, commissioner, just because you see these receding waters, you know, don't go out there. so what are people being told to do? >> we evacuated our levee testimony. we had help from our emergency management person, our levee district perp. we had the whole community coming together with the sheriff's department, highway patrol, city of perryville, the businesses in the affected area, sabreliner aviation, local farmers. we contacted citizens electric, national guard, we had everybody on board with us, health department, modot, and we've got everybody organized and traffic control was a major project, but

it was mostly watching the water come up, and with the good news with it dropping two foot that weaver here to just stand by and make sure everybody is safe. neil: you be safe as well, commissioner. you people have been through incredible stuff, but you've handled it, and that doesn't surprise those who know folks in your neck of the region well. but hang in there. try to make it a safe new year. thank you again. >> thank you. neil: all right. in the meantime, as i was talking to the commissioner, we're getting word now of two top aides resigning in the ben carson campaign. you might recall when we were chatting with the presidential candidate, he said a shake-up would be ensuing and soon. he seemed to intimate within the next week. we're told right now that having just announced that he raised $23 million for the quarter just ending more than any other presidential candidate, he is shaking things up, and these top officials are leaving now effective immediately.

they're not exactly naming names at point, but it has begun. more after this. attention! consumer protection alert! if you've donated to the humane society of the united states you should know that only one penny of every dollar donated goes to local pet shelters. hsus is currently being sued for fraud and recently paid over five million dollars to settle a bribery lawsuit. if you want to help pets, support local animal shelters in your cittty. find out more at humane watch dot org.

neil: a couple of days ago were we last spoke to dan carson, he innovated that day was coming. to top ones are leaving from the former communications are. we have resigned from the

campaign effect if immediately. we respect the candidate. they go on to say announcing $23 million in the fourth quarter. passing 1 million contributions. over 600,000 unique donors since march. we wish him and his campaign the best of luck. these were among the gentlemen that were talking about how important it was for the candidate. responding to attacks or show a little bit more, i think they call it something in vinegar. they show a little bit more. a little bit more aggressiveness. it may be changing. anthony williams is right here.

what do you think of this? >> people that like doctor carson once holding where he once was over the summer. the people that like him still like him. it is on an emotional level. they will still give him. he does not have support. trump has fans. ted cruz has supporters. i think that type of thing is where we're seeing that fundraising not really changing. he raises all this money. close to double with ted cruz or jeb bush. all the attention certainly is on the ted cruz. explain the disconnect to me. >> a lot has to do with the poll numbers. his one time nearly.

he is now considered an afterthought in many of these states. >> he has this loyal following. a personal attack politics of donald trump. sort of soft-spoken. getting obama a really rough time on obama care. i think ben carson has sustained this political moment that he embraced for quite a while. today's indication, no matter how much money you have, if it is not well managed, it will be wasted. ultimately, i think you are beginning to see now, the beginning of a substantial wind just around the corner. >> they will complain about it. two weeks from today. there is the fox business d-day.

carson. why does he not get the time. we have actually crunched this down. he does not generate the broadside returns. nasty follow-ups. outside of, apparently, recommending that he get more. >> i actually do not think that he should go there. i think, again, to the leaders that will consistently support him and give him money. that will send a disconnect. he did not get a lot of time in the first fox news debate either. powerful enough. >> my point only, it is not about the lack of time, it is about what we would have. >> doesn't he need to put the

emphasis on his ads? what he prefers not to do? what do you think? >> i think that iowa is where he needs to compete. he needs to appeal evangelicals. >> i think so. new hampshire seems to be a batch in the establishment candidate. donald trump is set to clean all of them. unless things change dramatically. >> i think that trump will be the guy. the electorate there is independent. they do change. bernie sanders or the donald trump candidate in this primary. it will not be an establishment playful for them. >> you guys look at the candidates. if you are not in the top three, you are in trouble. >> in trouble. not only that momentum

implications. the delegate threshold. the very practical reality. if you are not in the top tier. all of the states, leaders of florida, you simply will not have enough delegates. that is where these establishment candidates are hoping to do. >> it will add to their total. we may see a long process as a result. neil: i looked at the math here. we could have a brokered convention. i could be wrong. neil: two weeks from today. the first presidential debate from the new year.

and maybe for doctor carson. another chance to make a good impression. raising money. raising much enthusiasm among voters. the race is on. we shall see two weeks from today. take a quick look from the dow right now. we have been down over 100. this is a market that may have been determined. just the numbers here, we need to gain 219 points. twenty-one points to be where we started out the year. anything short of that, is a loss. our first loss since 2008. we are watching it in new york. i am told that a certain gentleman is watching it in hawaii. more after this. ♪

>> they wanted to do a retro movie. i do not like that. i work very hard to make them completely different. different planets. different spaceships. neil: what do you say now, america? after seeing it, horrible things to me. it made me feel very scaredy-cat. a lot if you set said things that got me to the point of adding extra security at my home. george lucas. saying that this movie stinks. that is george lucas saying that. that is your guild. [laughter] from your founder. from your savior.

$4 billion that this guy got. selling it to disney. apparently, he does not like the movie. i am thinking he did not get a percentage. now what do you think, america? okay. enough of that. back to the markets. that is not in danger of going away. the next three hours and 15 minutes. it is a lot of the other players. the name you know. reporting on extensively. it is interesting. it was still a pretty good year. >> it was a great year. nasdaq does not have stocks. it is up around that year to date. you have been uncovering that with the unchanged line.

netflix up 140%. amazon doubling. as the comparison, the s&p 500 down around 4% year to date. how much the company is spending on original content. if you are a believer, you buy the stock. spending $5 billion. it is on content this year. comparing that to last year. using it altogether. four and a half billion. netflix is still planning on outspending those for huge players this year. the house of cards. yes. amazon is a little bit out for house. i have not caught those. it is covered with amazon.

>> we talk about a model where they are spending a lot of money early on. >> not dependent on the content. $61 billion in revenue. netflix, three and a half. chances are, they run off of amazon. >> big runners. it is millennial's. they want the same money on their cable bills. you know what, even espn launched subscribers. neil: i think you would agree

that. it is this tribeca backpack that i got for you. neil: it is stupid. i am just telling you. i will message you on friday. added this. i wish you people would have listened to neil cavuto on fox business. a terrific movie. not all the others. happy new year, neil. >> happy new year to you as well. more after this. ♪ you both have a

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neil: there will be a lot of picking apart the winners and the losers. chipolte was doing fine going into the final months of the year. it is the safety and quality of its food. that stock down close to 30% for the year. another winner early on. go pro. those little cameras. apparently you do not need to focus too hard. a loss of about 70% on the year. they can sometimes turn on you. unexpected. i'll also unexpected developments for hoverboards. they were all the rage. they still are, actually. some of the safety. we had another case of a hover board ake's potion. the brand in this case, we do

know. they want to sue the company. they do have the case. what do you mean not so fast. why not so fast? >> it is still too soon to tell. they are stealing our christmas presents this year. they are numerous in nature. table: nature. only about one dozen reported fires as it relates to these hoverboards charging issues. they really do not know the common cause as to why the batteries are catching fire. the range and the damages are faring fastly.

the boards are actually causing house fires. without having enough facts to determine. >> where there is smoke, there is fire. they ask questions later. they are worried about something. you are saying that that is enough. >> well, it could be. i agree with the point that trial lawyers tried to use drop on for the ride. >> it is very rare. believe it or not, it happens. a gentleman by the name of john brown filed a class-action lawsuit in new york. bought a hover board for his kids for the holidays. after plugging it in, it blew up. in that case, in at least 10

other states, it really does appear that we have a safety issue here. i think that when you take a look at all these cases into plug it into that lawsuit, i think that this guy probably does have a case. you have physicality. bottom line, i think that the case is well drafted. >> there are some sloppy dealers. it is effective. heating up for blowing up. normally, all hoverboards of lawmakers seem to get caught up in the safety. where do you start distinguishing? >> that is the unfortunate part. you look at what happened with the cell phone industry. you need to look at where you are buying the hoverboards from. is it a major retailer or not?

is at one of these manufacturers that is questionable in nature. if you do have a claim, it is more prudent to file an individual claim if you have prudent charges. >> are okay wrist. that's a man shot of mike tyson falling. i would think those issues are more germane here. >> there has to be an assumption of risk as it relates to falling off the hoverboards. if you are on something that is not your feet and you fall, you assume that risk. you assume the risk that you will fall. you have several big-box retailers. you have the faa voicing concerns. you have the safety commission investigating. >> we will watch closely. take you very much. every time i do, i do not know.

it is cruel. i do not know if it is me. i do not know if it is childish. he is fine, by the way. more after this. ♪

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neil: i will take you to times square. fox business studios. they expect 1 million people to crowd into that space. watching the air. you can tell. they just stopped in the middle of the street or sidewalk. believe me. i wish you would just move a little to the right. the left and the right, there is simply no room. lived there in times square. what is it looking like they are? >> i like your plea to the

public. it is not going to happen. this year it will go down in history. over 6000 police officers will be on hand tonight. i have to show you this. they are already lined up as far as the eye can see. they have been here since five about this morning. probably over 1 million people. some officers will have radiation errors. the nypd critical response command. training for counterterrorism. some who will be in position. they will be on top of the buildings here. thousands of cameras positioned throughout. there is no credible threat to new york city. there are many layers of security. the big apple, big hearty.

>> you have covered some of the big stories in recent history. how do those people go to the bathroom? >> i have not seen a lot. i know that sometimes they do bring them out. it depends on your position. neil: i gotcha. >> that is kind of the running spot here as of right now. [laughter] we talked to a lot of people who try not to drink anything. you really have to be with your fluid intake. >> it was in response to that question. it is weird. thank you very much. a long time ahead of us.

it is not only the focus here. al qaeda seems to be resurrecting itself. what do you make of that? we thought al qaeda was an afterthought. all of a sudden, they are reemerging. >> they just took a backseat to isis. they are growing. you focus your attention on one thing. i do not think that they went away. i think our narrative would like to have them go away. >> we have our sights set on isis. not so much al qaeda. can we track all these guys down at the same time? a little bit more familiar in recent years. have to deal with isis and not

as much al qaeda. >> we should be dealing with them all at once. you have different elements. they can deal with different geographic places at the same time. isis and al qaeda are different. >> we are just getting word. a guy who was trying to blow up a bar. he was communicating, we are told. that raised some eyebrows. maybe in places you would not plan on. what do you make of that? >> i believe that it is absolutely happening. i think that there is an intelligence network out there

that we have that is actively pursuing these guys. >> all right. thank you very much. have a safe year. we appreciate it. >> picking up a little bit on what has been happening. certainly in this weather related market. it has collapsed. that has been given a disproportionate in the dow. and to us on the s&p. how those markets are down. we have jeff flock and phil flynn at the cme. you are arguing that the selloff was overdone. maybe it turns around in the new year. do you still hold that deal? >> some of the negativity that

we have going on here right now. the prices have moved in unison. it tells us a lot about demand. technology is created faster. almost all the commodities have hit multi- year lows. many still hover above those levels. copper, steel, crude veered it just keeps expanding. prices will be well forever. what is the rest of the story? 1998. back to back. guess what happened in 1999. it was a much happier new year for the oil industry. happy new year. giving hope to the new year. it could be a much better gear next year. hang in there. >> there was a lack of excitement here. if it's behind me. i ask you to roll the tape.

this is what they produced for us. for this hour. there is a different sense of excitement here on the cme. it just depends on when you are looking at it. >> how do i know that they just are not drinking? >> there may have been some of that. i cannot testify to that. [laughter] the mac this is the settling of the euro dollar. neil: there you go. great job, guys. jeff: happy new year. >> he can rest now. we have a lot more coming up. this whole oil thing. is story that some are missing. the stories are indeed pumping like crazy. they cannot stop this.

explain. it is about extra barrels of capacity. the only one that has an extra capacity. a strike, stepping in. it shows about $105,000 is all they need to cover all of their welfare. all of the royal families that are just being paid. basically, not any civil unrest. >> i am sorry, my friend, don't they know in doing that they push the price down? they may get more of the price that they want. propping up what they want to prop up. they are splitting their own risk as well. >> and again barrels coming on

from last year. oil prices going up significantly. just over 1000 to about 550 in the u.s. the fracking industry has been able to develop to and even point right now. you see the oil prices, up. it will come from the united states. all they will do is lose market share. plus the revenue that they will lose. here are some trends that worry me. should worry saudi arabia. the price of oil. things are slowing down. in midwest manufacturing report. it plummeted to 2009 levels. 42.9. you have walmart coming off its worst year since 1974. a slowdown in spending.

weekly jobless claims up 20,000. the latest housing reports indicated over the last three months. what is it, a slowdown not just here, but globally. oil prices falling down even lower. the cheapest in the world. about $15 a barrel. they need $105,000 just to fund their government. they need to be able to build more cattle products. this is all they are getting out of the ground now. going down to $30 or even $25. you have after capacity and saudi arabia. the fractures in the united states are the ones winning this war right now. >> it is interested. thank you, my friends.

have a safe new year. let's look at the dow right now. higher on the year. now, potentially less than three hours away. as things stand down, we are down on the year. taking a gain of more than 219 points to turn this market into positive territory. we are down if it finishes in this rough trajectory. since 2008. the dow lost one third of its value. down 33.8%. again, we are watching closely. normally, before a presidential election year. double digit years. gaining 10 and a half percent. not until this year. bringing us back to 1939. we were down. more after this.

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see car insurance in a whole new light. liberty mutual insurance. >> the dow dow looks like it will have a bad year here. walmart. down today. it alone accounts for three quarters of the dow drop off this year. that is a huge job off. the world's biggest that was just hit left and right by everything from gas prices. we thought that it would benefit from that, but then it didn't. those oil prices are actually not helping it. bottom line, shoppers went elsewhere in buyers of stock will swear. looking at mcdonald's. anything but. turning things around. offering breakfast all day.

27% this year. the second biggest gainer in the dow. nike was the first. nike. that is what they used. what i slip on when i run to mcdonald's. we are just about two hours 44 minutes away from closing out the 2015th market year. figure does not look good for some of the big averages. the s&p slightly in negative territory. thanks to a good run-up in technology. guaranteeing another positive year by at least six and a half percent. the floods going on in missouri. the very latest. what can you tell us? >> good afternoon. the mayor told us that this is losing the battle to your with the flood.

at least 100 homes expected to be destroyed or affected by this flood veered it is just too dangerous right now. this may not look like much at home. as you can see, only a few feet of dry water left. in rd has closed before. it will add to the travel nightmare. fifty-five" and right now. you can imagine the travel nightmare it is creating. giving you and idea of the magnitude of the flood. a football field completely underwater. they use 145,000 sandbags to try to compete with this flood to try and stop the waters. now they are all underwater. the chief of police saying this is the worst natural disaster the town has ever seen. as we spoke to neighbors over

the past two days, this is the worst flood they have ever seen. that flood has been described as a one in 500 year event. >> thank you, very, very much. we will keep you posted. even bringing up the coast guard to help out with all this flooding. all right. a development half a world away. on fire at a hotel in dubai. we are not sure how this started here and breaking out. apparently, near a large new year's eve fireworks display. we are not sure if the fireworks display is what caused this. all we know is that it is 20 stories. the world's tallest skyscraper already. because of that, we do not know how many.

if that is the case, just keeping a very close eye on it. about nine hours ahead of us. this is about one hour and a half away from their new year. right now at this time, anything but celebratory. we do not know what caused this. it was an out-of-control fire now. the world's tallest skyscraper now engulfed in flames. we will have more after this. ♪

neil: we talk about a staff shakeup. is that still in the works? >> we will certainly be altering some things in the campaign. we will be talking about that quite publicly next week. >> a little sooner than next week. innovating the changes in the staff. today, they are coming down.

urging doctor carson. answering the charges. unable to deal with foreign-policy. the doctor telling me that that is not his style. he has decided to shake things up. it is anyone's guess. marc, to you first, how do you make of this? >> new year pass. thank you for letting me be a part of this. >> thank you very much. >> i have to tell you, i have a little hat. >> whatever. >> she is a regional democrat. >> that is so nice. i do not know what that means, but thank you.

>> i would say, it is not a moment too soon that he is making a change. frankly, he should not have talked about it before today. no anticipation or talking about it. getting rid of who he needed to get rid of and have a clean slate. unhappy with the performance of some of his top campaign leaders, then he should have gotten rid of them. he is sitting on some cash. you can put them into some advertising. you can put them into some ground troops in the key early states. it isn't a moment too soon. >> the slightest tumble in the polls. he has had this disarray. he raised a lot of money this last quarter. $23 million which is about double. there seems to be a weird disconnect. what do you make of that?

>> doing a great job. i watch this interview with you on tuesday. having a candidate go out on national television and tell people that they will fire you before you get fired, i think that that is a horrible move. they resigned and had an advance that him doing it. it made zero sense to me to go and telegraph and 2,000,008 your staff that way. they were sitting there for two weeks. >> they felt that they were not being listened to. >> i would. going out to neil cavuto. i will fire her in two weeks. i am out of here. thank you for this respecting me in that way.

you are still here. [laughter] >> you do not work here anymore. >> it is not about the staff people. that candidates have to be comfortable with this campaign. especially starting monday morning. this guy has a chance to score some wins in this campaign. an outsider candidate. obviously getting advice that he did not like. he will have to demonstrate in command. in terms of whether he is disrespecting staff, tough luck could they just need to lick their wounds. neil: doctors tend to be very deliberate. very cautious. this is coming to loud and clear with the way this was handled. thinking things through. this may be a different case.

>> saying something to me about his personality. he would go out there and humiliate him in this way. doing this for two weeks, if not longer. you will fire these people and expect them to sit there and take it. >> very nice supportive statements. i think that that is what you do. i think, you know, frankly, that happened to me, if someone came to me and told you that you would be fired, i would take a hike. >> this will either work really well for carson or believe badly. john mccain was able to win in 2008. he completely cleared house. >> he did not telegraph it. i do not mind clearing house. >> thank you, very, very much.

i want to update you on what is going on. this fire is still happening. it is actually near. twenty stories are engulfed in flames. we do not know how this started. we do know that it is very near a new years fireworks display. four hunt thousand led lights. tons of fireworks going to be used in the display. whether it had anything to do with what is happening here, we just do not know. and out-of-control fire. the fireworks display is off. we will have more after this. ♪

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neil: apple has been very volatile but what if i told you for the year it has been done all but 4%. free fall from the 133 price or highs makes it look precipitous. when all said and done, looking at 4% decline. that the worst performance for apple since 2008. google just the opposite. it has been on fire on the year. appreciably, beating apple. what to make of that is anyone's guess but we're following it. okay, meantime we're following what is going on with star wars.

told a lot of you 12 days to for this horrific i will film to make billion dollars. >> fastest on record. neil: dagen mcdowell is here. dagen is very tired. she has been doing yeoman's work. the early show, maria's show, 15 hours on the air. she is a little punch-drunk. fact of the matter, dagen horrific movie. george leung cast himself, man who created it, horrific movie. told charlie rose, i can't believe these guys do movies. the understanding was the creator thinks it stinks. >> sour grapes. put on your big boy pants and get a life. neil: that is what he did. he told the truth. >> no he didn't. here's the deal, being "star wars" ad dick and loser myself my whole life, here is what is going on. by the way, talk about language

george lucas used, these characters, these films are his kids. i loved them. i created them. i told them -- sold them to the white slavers. neil: abdursal jaraboev or whatever that pathetic characterrer? >> that is the problem. the last three movies he made were a strip to stink town. they were awful. the best two movies in the first six films were the two movies that george lucas did not direct, "return of the jedi." i did not see the new one. i watched all of them multiple times. i didn't see the new one because. did you go. neil: i did indeed. >> you went? neil: yes i did. it was even worse than i fear. >> you championed the apple watch buck coand apple's stock is tanking. nobody wanted to own that thing except you. neil: i felt i had to know. my sons begged and cajoled and i went. >> it was excellent. neil: there were people dressed in the theater like the characters.

grown men my age, dagen. it was humiliating, i thought, tragic. now george lucas, their yesterday today, their god is telling them you're all tragic, this movie is tragic. i'm done with you. he got 4 billion for his film company from disney. more or less on way out, saying -- >> i can't believe you didn't didn't want to do my script. they didn't want to do your scripts because the last three movies were terrible. neil: why would he do this? if you think about it, the success you say it is, seems to be doing okay. snoop will be biggest movie of all time, mark my words. neil: great. why wouldn't he quietly run with that and take credit for i which he could. he didn't have anything to do with this movie, you know what i mean? >> he, again -- neil: small, petty man i guess. >> he is petty, he is small. he is jealous of j.j. abrams. they made a movie for fans which he didn't want to do.

>> j.j. abrams -- >> is the director of the movie. they brought in larry kasden to write it. he wrote "empire strikes back" and co-wrote "return of the jedi." the two best movies of entire series except for current one. george lucas did not direct those. those were great because george lucas was not involved as much. he is totally sour because a lot of "star wars" fans think the last three movies he made were a j, o, k, e, disaster. by the way, one of the reasons that he sold the franchise is because, or sold lucas film to disney is because he had a kid about 2 1/2 years ago with his new wife. he had other things to do. he was just ready to move on but he can't let go because he is jealous because he couldn't make the movie that j.j. abrams and larry kasden. neil: what do you think of princess leia, when she

responded to her critics which i think were brilliant. >> looks should be off limits. if you didn't look the way you did 30 or 40 years ago, carrie fisher, you would never be in the movies. you are lucky eddie fisher and debbie reynolds were your parents or you would never be on the screen. neil: she looks great. >> from what i've seen on movie clips -- neil: you haven't seen the movie. you haven't done your homework. you don't know. >> i seen interviews. she whipped herself into shape. neil: she is beautiful. >> i guess she had work done. i made fun -- neil: do you think han solo. >> needed to. he is so creaky looking and so disinterested. i don't know what he's on but he is not, but he is not, looks like he has been drinking benadryl. neil: done with you am i? there you go, unbiased view. >> goes both way, men, women. you know what? neil: don't dress up for the

stupid movie. that's all we're saying. >> i'm dressing up. neil: if you're mad at anyone, be mad at the creator of this whole stupid series. gorge lucas had added comment. i wish you would have listened to neil cavuto on fox business, uncannily prescient and master of his medium. >> you do not understand love in this world. you just understand hate. you are -- neil: made up. it is all fiction. these characters are not real. >> well it is my second life. what do you mean they're not real? neil: okay. [laughter] therapy begins right after this. stick around. we live in a pick and choose world.

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usaa car buying service. powered by truecar. online and on the usaa app. >> happy new year from the floor of new york stock exchange where they're selling stocks. you can't blame oil today. oil is up about 2 1/2%. looks like a lot of traders are settling out positions for end of the year. we'll see a down year for the dow. s&p right now about break even. oil as i said up 88 cents today but it has been down a lot as you know for this year. last two years down 60 plus percent. it's crazy. dow off 72 points. "new york st" portg tt olivgard is argi you $400or aew yr's e dier. getsou aot me th brdstis anall-u-caeat sala peect ew oflewearsve baroppg --ew yr's e ll dppinin tes sare

d ni, ea, acssib bathom. one of gainers today chevron with oil up. more more "cavuto: coast to coast" coming up.

neil: they just let this one slip on a holiday here. the state department announcing it will fall short after court order requiring it to release 82% of hillary clinton's e-mails by end of today. that is the understanding but

the state department effectively saying it is kind of overwhelmed. he hope to meet the deadline sometime in january. although reading from this i can't see when in january. that is the end of the year, they were supposed to have 43,000 pages of hillary clinton's emails. so they fall a few thousand pages shy of that. i always think how many emails you have to have to fill out 43,000 pages you know. but anyway, it will not happen today. we're told at least 2,000 pages shy of the court's demand to get them all out. 82% of the messages by the end of today ain't happening. so there you go. more on that fire going on in dubai. we're told that there are no injuries here even though it looks like it could be horrific but this started, we're told a little over an hour ago. it is very near the world's tallest building where there was supposed to be a fireworks display to ring in the new year here. there are a lot of lights, a lot

of fireworks, that, whether that had any connection to this is anyone's guess but 20 plus floors are engulfed in flames. some injuries. we're told though that that's it. that is the extent of it. it looks very bad but might not be very bad. again, this is coming half a world away. much we don't know. all we do know it looks pretty bad on this new year's eve. you can imagine the new year's eve festivities tonight are off. look at dow right now. we are down today. it is looking less and less likely, although 2 hours and 15 minutes. anything can happen. we won't have up year if it does not materialize. looks like we won't. we'll have the first down year since 2008. many are seizing on the fact it would be the first year before a presidential election, normally a very bullish year on stocks on average, such years are up in the vicinity up 10 1/2%. not so this year. it would be first down year

before a presidential election since 1939. ben stein was reporting on that last time it happened. he joins us right now. ben, good to see you. happy new year. >> nice to see you, i wasn't born then as you well know. happy to take the compliment. neil: just a little zinger. what do you make of this? do you read any significance we attach to these numbers at end of the year? for barack obama every year of his administration has been an up year for the dow. maybe not now. >> he is not running again and, it came off of a horrible, horrible couple of years during the crash. i don't read any significance into it whatsoever. i read into it the significance where you have quite a mature bull market but that has no influence on the election whatsoever. i don't think hillary needs to quake in her boot or wake up from her nap or showing any signs of life whatsoever in response to it. i don't think it's a worrisome sign for her or a bad sign for the republicans. i know you're going to make fun of me when i say this it, i know

you're going to make fun of me for saying, it has no significance whatsoever in terms of the election. now you can make fun with me. neil: i guess we lost our feed with ben. i can't hear him anymore. no. ben, let me posit one other thing, the 8th year of at least recent presidents wheels come off the wagon. we know what happened with president bush with the meltdown and everything else, real estate collapse. not attaching it to him or blaming him one way or other. 8th year of bill clinton, collapse of internet boom that went bust. what is it about the 8th years, the fear even in this president's final year we could see the economy slow down, maybe precipitously and this is telegraphing something? what do you think? >> well i don't think it symbolizes anything whatsoever about the economy. bill clinton, it was a disaster for him for many reasons, mostly because of his own personal sexual interests and habits. in terms of george bush's final

year, he made catastrophic, unbelievable mistakes in terms of managing the economy and managing the federal reserve and managing treasury. i don't think there has ever been a worst treasury secretary than mr. paulson ever in the history of the united states. so that was -- neil: not talking politically one way or the other. in bill clinton's final year. obviously markets an economy were on fire but we technically had a recession. i mean i'm just wondering what is it that peters out or is there any significance to either? >> i don't think there is any significance to it really whatsoever. the 8th year of dwight eisenhower's administration which i do remember fairly well, we had pretty quiet time of it. there was slight recession, not much happened. the only president who really, really got, what is the word jammed up the works, gummed up the works really, really badly but was my very good friend and bush 43, love and worship, a

great guy, but let mr. paulson influence him. i don't think there is problem in the economy this year, i'm often wrong. the economy looks write wrong. i have to finish, the bit dagen did to you with "star wars" was funniest thing on tv and dagen should get the nobel prize for humor in film criticism for that. i'm sorry to go off topic but dagen's a genius. neil: you know what is interesting, she didn't even see the movie. >> i know that but her comments, and i don't agree with her all about lawrence kasdan as a screenwriter. her comments are unbelievably funny. whatever you found other upper patch of virginia you found her from, that is the find of the century. neil: i would agree with that, my friend. i would agree with that. what did you make of george lucas out of the blue with charlie rose just ripping -- >> i was quite surprised. i was quite surprised. i think he has got human feelings like everybody else. by the way i don't think there

has been a good "star wars" movie since original one, "empire strikes back." neil: did you see this one. >> i have not seen it. i don't think i'm going to see it. it is that bad? neil: who are risk. horrible. >> i won't see it. the new james bond movie was quite of a disappointment. first time i've ever been disappointed in a james bond movie, ever, ever. in terms of investing this is perfectly good year to invest if you're investing for long run, if you're investing for grandchildren, it will be perfectly good year. i don't think it will influence the election at all. i think hillary will walk away with everything if i may say so. don't worry about the stock market this year. keep buying in little dribs and drabs. neil: for reviewing of those who just tuned in, ben stein agrees with me, significance of the what is happening with the dow looking at soft year, what that could portend. thanks, ben for clarifying.

>> i didn't say horrific. neil: that was pretty tacky. >> you're funny. neil: ben stein, thank you very, very much. quick look at the dubai, what is going on. i'm only showing this here. it looks bad but we're told it really isn't. they don't expect any injuries or no injuries were reported. whether that means a lot of people got out of the building, it is a skyscraper, 20 floors, maybe more engulfed in flames. they have a lost tall buildings. literally the world's tallest is right next door. they would have a big fireworks display. that is obviously off. they wonder if that had anything to do with this. safe to say the celebration of new year's eve is off. very, very pricey bit of real estate is on fire. more after this.

neil: you know what? every year about this time they look at people how much they're paying in taxes and usually focus tends to be on super uber-richest, right? 400 richest people on the planet who on average pay about the $60 billion in taxes each year. they have discovered that this group, as a group, has been paying a higher percentage, about five percentage points higher than they have in the past. so their tax rates are skyrocketing. but as cns news.com editor terry jeffrey explains it, something is skyrocketing even more, spending in washington. good to have you. crunch this down. what did you find out? >> well, neil, what we saw that in fiscal year 2015 which of course ended on september 30th, federal government collected more taxes in inflation adjusted dollars ever in the history of the country. more than $3.2 trillion taken from the american people but they turned around and spent 3.68 trillion or so and ran you

have a deficit of 438.9 billion. despite taking more money from americans than ever, the government ran a massive deficit and ran up the debt during the year. neil: you know i was just thinking what a hillary clinton or bernie sanders would say hearing that their average tax rate, i don't have it right in front of me, you can correct me and feel free to, is about 22%. that is up 16, 17% those guys are saying no, whoa, whoa, that is not warren buffett rule, they pay at least 30%. they will seize on that, not paying enough. not that spending is out of control, or that the taxing isn't out of control. >> i have no doubt that president obama, who is behind some of the tax changes that caused this, as well as hillary clinton, of course bernie sanders, they want to see the tax code as instrument of tax war. part of their political agenda people are successful who make money, who save and invest have done something wrong and that

they ought to be punished. they're not interested in really growing the economy. they're not interested in justice and fairness. they're interested in advancing their own political career by pitting one group of americans against another when in fact, people who save and invest their money are creating wealth and jobs for other people. that is basic economic fact, neil, they don't understand. neil: it is weird. watch what i say, i think they will seize on this and say the problem isn't spending. the problem is not these guys are not paying enough. terry, great seeing you. thanks for joining us. happy new year. neil: >> happy new year nearly. neil: more than two hours to to but it is looks dicey. more after this.

neil: all right. you have to go back to the meltdown, the last time we were down or the dow was down can. it is liking is about to revisit what has not happened since 2008, a down year for the dow.

the s&p already in that negative territory, albeit slightly. trish regan will be following each and all as the minutes wind down. hey there, trish. trish: hey there, neil. breaking this hour, everyone, a luxury hotel in flames in dubai right now. meanwhile, right here in the homeland everyone on high alert. a 25-year-old man has been arrested for plotting a new year's eve attack in upstate new york all in the name of isis. i am trish regan, welcome, everyone, to "the intelligence report." i want to go to these pictures we are getting in from dubai right now where there is a fire happening at a luxury hotel in dubai. the blaze is running up, you can see this, all these stories, reports say 40 stories right now. this is a 63-story luxury hotel. it's located right next to the tallest building in the world there in dubai, and it has 200 rooms, over 60 apartments.