huckabee will be the first to leave the race and then the next big one to exit will be jeb bush. stuart: whoa. save the best to last. >> after new hampshire. stuart: thank you, monk, very much. and ashley too. neil cavuto, it is yours. neil: thank you very much. we've been all over the map, and as stuart saying it could be worse. four hours to go. the bottom line here, my friends is that china has revealed itself to be an ineffective economic and now market power. and the bloom is off the roads. that much is clear. and the country's ability to sustain at least these body blows. it is indicated already that all -- they're going to go these so-called circuit breakers are going to go. so they're just going to dry tomorrow. we'll see how that goes. for now, we've got a sell of better than 211 points. but as i say, it could be worse. nevertheless when you step back from this from the political fallout, presidential candidate marco rubio just telling me it does come back to china, and it

does come back to whether they're up to the task and we're up to the task. take a look. neil: in these markets a lot of it driven by china and fears that china's falling out of bed are less global economic guest, and we're in trouble. do you agree with that? >> china's in a lot of trouble. their government has been battling this economy, they haven't been transparent. i think this is going to be an ongoing cycle for months perhaps years to come. neil: all right. a lot more with marco rubio as the show ensues and his own recovery as he says those chickens are coming home to roost. that wasn't rubio's way of saying we have more trouble, but essaying we do have least more economic hardship down the pike. connell mcshane, whatever is happening today, we know it's butchy. >> yeah. we're all over the place in the markets now. one thing about china, neil, we shouldn't be surprised, we've been talking about it

for the better past of the year. the chinese market in the economy was one of the big stories. the market in china last year was all over the map. it surged like 60% at the beginning of last year, crashed in june, ended up higher for the year by, like, 9%, but it was a bumpy ride. so you go down 7% a half an hour in china, they close it down again because of these circuit breakers, and it looked like we had a terrible day today, we tile stihl might, we were down more than 300 at the lows of the session. the thing to do today is watch oil. because as oil came back off of its lows, so did stocks, stocks started to drift to the downside by 200. what's getting hit the hard he is s&p quick mention of apple here. because apple has been -- down again today -- down over three days in a row concerning of iphone demand and twitter. all-time low for twitter today at just below $21. so i know a lot of you people, neil have been saying we're off to the worst start in our markets since 1991, and we

are, the end of the cold war days, but the thing about 1991, we ended up higher by 11% of the year. neil: yeah, that was one of those rare years that that happened. thank you very much, connell. in the meantime back to china and whether we should be caring as much. one of the things marco rubio was getting on about was how we shouldn't itch our wagon to china. one thing we can't believe everything that they're saying. and china does have a long history -- and i said on this show, being like the john lovities character. and then went down to 7 or 8%. it's a little wanting here and now they're being revealed like the wizard of oz. they take the curtain away and maybe that. it's not a good adjustment for them; right? and it's certainly not a good adjustment for us realizing that, is it? >> yeah. so china like you said has a history of not being honest.

we know that. the question is how dishonest and how much longer can they keep it up? i was talking to some analyst friends of mine who focus on that part of the world and they said two things to me. number one we don't focus on the real economic growth numbers. we focus on forecasting what the government will say what those numbers are or else we'll look like complete idiots and upset things. that's number one. number two is china is in a position where, you know, they're trying to balance this very, very delicate "house of cards." a friends of mine said their estimate growth in 2015 was as low as 2%, others say 7%. when you have this differential, it's crazy, neil. and i guess the biggest problem is if it's really that bad, the government doesn't necessarily have the ability to control it. it's kind of like a communist country, half democracy. they're trying to control and things yet trying to let free markets run their course in certain aspects, and it's just -- it's a difficult game to play, neil. stuart: to your -- that's a

very good point. but one of the points i've always raised is it does sound too good to be true, it probably is. so when i'm hearing china and i know compared to a low level if you go from virtually no growth to let's say 1% growth, you've gone 100%. i understand how that works. >> right. stuart: but even after that when china was humming, they kept saying 12, 13%, no, now we're going to slow down to 7.5%, i think they were making all of this crap up all along. they were propping up the markets as best they could. forbidding you to short sell, to try to make sure people weren't harming these markets. they were darn near arresting anyone who tried to trifled with that. so you make your bed, you have to lie in it. now they're lying in the bed that they lied in you know what i mean? >> yeah. and all of those circuit breakers, all of those short restrictions that are coming off now. neil: right?

>> it's a dam that was being held up for so long. and another thing, neil, they were suppressing their currency. neil: yes. >> this morning -- i never pronounce that correctly, down 6 points here whatever it is. six-year low. you've got to realize when you're doing that, money is exiting the country. neil: you could never control your currency. you just can't. >> that's right. neil: you could slow it, tinker at those levels but longer term, markets will do what markets will do. >> not directly. neil: yeah. good insight, buddy, as always. happy new year to you. >> thanks, neil, you too. neil: now to my buddy charles payne. by the way, excellent job. >> thanks. neil: but really he works his hiney off here. what about the circuit breakers? they come off china and it's china's way of saying i guess we have confident in the markets, and they think they're going to be fine. so immediately thinking what if they're not fine? >> you know, sometimes have made going to have a hard landing. that's the reality of life that even essential planners of china are starting to come

to grips -- neil: like our kids until we bail them out. >> but i do believe from now until the time the market opens, they get more news. in other words, maybe they'll lower their lending rate, they'll do something else to counter -- neil: yeah, i heard you saying that on varney and one of the things that intrigued me is that what you were saying is they're not totaling divorcing themselves in the process. now, the circuit breakers might go but getting the market breaks is not going to go; right? >> well, they have to do something to inject confidence or -- neil: what would that be? >> again, it would be, you know, intervening like they did last summer, lowering the main rates on, like, the -- neil: right? >> our federal reserve. it rescued their markets last year. remember the big story -- neil: for the moment. >> well, that's where all of these markets live, moment to moment, particularly like this. if you were to ask the average casual market observer, to connell's point, they would have told you that china crashed last year, but it was

one of the top performing markets in all the world. neil: up 9%. >> you and jared hit on it in a little bit. in january 2014, farmer reserves hit $4 trillion, now at 3.3 trillion. they spent a record amount of money trying to figure out how to short. because once they lowered it, you're in china, you don't want to hold this. if your country is lowering the value of the currency, you start to sell it and get dollars. so they have the balancing act they're lowering the currency but don't want things to free fall. they manufactured their economy, controlled the aspect, they controlled how many kids you can have to everything else. but they're learning you can't do that to your markets. not indefinitely to your point. neil: whether they can succeed at this or not, the question gets back to something marco rubio was raising. whether china should be that much to fuss over. psychologically i understand why it is because we've been told for years it is and, you

know, would they buy a lot of our debt, we need them -- but why? how does charles payne step back and look at china if it were not such a big factor. ashley: 10% of our exports go to china. in other words, if a company made a billion dollars every year, the stock would go nowhere. if it made 1,000,000.1, those moves have helped our market because it has helped caterpillar and ibm and apple. now, having said that, they're the symptoms. they're not the reason. they're the symptoms of something else going on in this world, and it's an economic slow down. when china's having problems, it's because it's an export economy. it's not their problem. they don't have anybody to sell anything to. neil: so does that justify the prices at these levels. >> the asterisk with the oil prices is also saudi arabia. neil: right? >> who thought they would be flooding the spigots last year and then at the end of the

year turn them up even more? they're playing an amazingly dangerous game. neil: but is it a global slow down? a recession we're heading into? >> a lot of is people saying it is a recession, here in america we know it. technically it's a recovery. i guarantee most people watching this their life hasn't changed much in the last seven years. it's as bad as it was in 2008, 2009. so on paper we're limping along. growing 1% in the fourth quarter of last year. neil: we're doing a little bit better. >> a little bit barrett. neil: you're an obama hater. >> no, if you were to ask the viewers, i know on paper it says one thing. but the average person either it's not happening to them or -- neil: in other words, we're hardly off to the right? >> right and most people are reluctant to say the number one thing that has to improve hasn't improved. neil: charles payne, busy guy. we were talking about oil prices going down but not gas prices. they've been rising because whatever excess supply we have

of oil to charles payne's point, we apparently didn't have a lot of this stuff when it comes to gas. that and the colder weather, which always plays a factor when it comes to gas. because i guess so many of us -- charles payne just uses the fireplace. he's very cheap, but it forks him. >> julie charter. neil: you remember the fire went out? all right. well, hopefully the fire doesn't go out on this guy because marco rubio still says he is the guy to beat hillary clinton, and he lays out his case. especially in light of these markets after this

neil: all right. let's take a look at what's going on now. down about 213 points, and i sound weird saying that that's actually better. more stable than it was. because going into trading today if you looked at the

futures at its worse, it looked like a 450 point fuel off. we never got that bad but well over 300 points. that has dissipated somewhat but, you know, these markets we don't read them particular for particular because what do i say about snapshots? because maybe one snapshot. you get it? snap -- okay. katie on how this is -- you're going to be hearing from marco rubio spells it out that maybe the oil is coming off the so-called recovery wagon. he has never been a big believer in that. if so, katie, eight years of two-term presidential terms. tend to be problematic. of course we all know that from george bush and the melt down of fall of his last year. even with bill clinton when the boom and the bust. but where does this stand for the candidates -- the 2016 candidates who benefits. >> well, i think in this case republicans benefit more for two reasons.

the first is when the market is crashing and then that gives implication that the economy is going to crash. voters are looking to the opposite party and power in white house not necessarily congress to solve the problem. and two republicans really do a lot of material to use against president obama when it comes to talking to voters on the campaign trail and tying hillary clinton to president obama and essentially saying that she will be his third term on the economy. i mean you look at the president saying we've been in recovery summer now for seven years and people aren't feeling it. and although the white house has been touting for months now that we're in a recovery, we actually go out and talk to people, they don't feel that way. and on top of the market crashing, they feel they're unsafe in a unstable environment, so i think republicans have most to gain here. neil: well, i guess which republican, donald trump is the guy who can deal with this because he's mr. capitalist, mr. business success. knows how to get things going. wants to get government out of the way.

the consensus from the so-called establishment, he's the guy that would torpedo the chances of the party. what do you say? >> well, i think when it comes to economy, obviously donald trump has a ton of experience. not just domestically but obviously globally and market crashes aren't a domestic issue, they're a global issue and donald trump can speak to that. carly fiorina call us speak to this. she was of course the ceo of hewellet packard and -- neil: well, that can come both ways. >> exactly it can. it can come both ways for both of them. and the problem here too is that even though republicans and democrats on a campaign trail are trying to use the market crash as a campaign talking point, it doesn't necessarily mean that washington d.c. is responsible that for everything that is happening in the world. so it's a hard -- neil: no, you're absolutely right. i always argue that we are what we feel. what we get. and if we're getting something that's stressing in the markets or we're hearing about it, or it's like a meltdown -- which is far worse some eight years ago.

it's palpable that it affects our mood, outlook, even our look. so it's the staying power that would call that into question. katie as always a pleasure. happy new year. >> thanks, neil, good to see you. neil: here's something odd what's going on today. the markets not withstanding. if you're following oil, still going down. and if you think about it, that's weird because if you have going on everywhere in the middle east. i'm talking about saudi arabia right now in iran you obviously had china escalating things by landing passenger planes on islands that have taken over and rebuilt them. and nothing. nothing at all with oil. no nervous running up a year. none of that. why is that? all of that and marco rubio. fox business.

neil: all right. you're

looking at our heat map, no one has given me an explanation about why it is called that but these kids today and their fancy graphics. but look at the green, the only stock positive positive in 2016 and you've got disney, the only other stock up in the dow today and despite the horrific star wars movie that inflation adjustment terms is one of the worst performing movies ever. way, way, way behind gone with the wind. just tragic. but, no, effectively the number one movie in north america of all time. but north america. you can include the world. you have a ways to go, helmet head. now, to oil and why it's subsiding away in all of these crisis going on and the middle east blowing up, china getting very provocative, jeff flock at the cme, what the heck is happening?

>> well, that's a lo that's a good question. we do have a lot of oil out there and right now we're down about a half a dollar, look at the last trade at 33.44 here. but we were down as low as 33.10 earlier today. that's 2004 levels that we haven't seen since then. so really come back if you look at the chart. and why? did it come all the way back? well, traders tell us it's covering short positions. that's when they sold oil short. but on b now even shorter, so they go ahead and liquidate the profit there. in addition we've got news from saudi arabia today that their state owned oil company essentially the biggest -- the economist today called it the most valuable company in the world worth trillions of dollars unknown. they may go public at some point. that has got to be somewhat bullish for oil prices. if it's not, the saudis themselves controlling what they do in terms of pumping, maybe a public company would make different choices about whether they continue to pump or not. at any rate, also getting a

benefit today here over at the cme because cold weather is coming. and gas prices just to check them, we seem to be stuck around $2 a gallon. i think today's average is 1.99. we have been there for the last several weeks and, you know, even if you look back a year, neil, we were only at $2.19 a year ago. so, you know, we've had a solid year. you know, you did the walmart numbers. maybe that's part of that is that, you know, this dividend we get from our gas prices, it may not be reflected in big purchases, but those everyday cheap things that you get at walmart, maybe that's having a benefit. neil: it is weird, though, because gas prices as low as they are certainly in the last six months have not gone in tandem the same percentage a drop in oil. but who am i to judge? >> double scam. neil: yeah, who knows. jeff flock. well, marco rubio has deposited that he is the

guy to beat for the republican nomination. donald trump not withstanding. he makes his case because he says, well, a businessman can talk all he wants about how he would be huge. but you have to cobble together the type of talents that some businessmen don't have. i don't think he was trashing donald trump. but i think he was -- well, he was trashing donald trump. he's next at ally bank no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like reunions equal blatant lying. the company is actually doing really well on, on social media. oh that's interesting. i - i started social media. oh! it was my...baby. legalzoom has your back. for your business, our trusted network of attorneys has provided guidance to over 100,000 people just like you. visit legalzoom today. the legal help you can count on. legalzoom. legal help is here.

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neil: marco rubio to be the first to say. he did not have a lot to say about the reason why these markets are so volatile. china. >> obviously china's direct impact is not as big as some people may think. they are the number one export market. relying on them for raw materials and so forth. china is in a lot of trouble. they have not been transparent. the best way to protect america is to have a strong economy. our tax code does not encourage companies to lead. the best way is to strengthen our economy. not undermine it the way barack

obama has done in the last several years. >> benefiting from all the turbulence of broad. one market analyst, the toll is mentioned in the room. that does not mean we are on fire, but, by comparison, better. how volatile it has been. this is a year all that has ended. >> the economy is increasingly globalized. it has an impact here at home. it is not engaged in the stock market directly. eventually, if you are an employee, people that are invested in the market. america is still the greatest country in the world. a great country and the client because of barack obama. making us the most prosperous nation in the world.

we will reembrace this country. >> free enterprise. given the turbulence. donald trump has said, well, i am your guy. mr. capitalism. i have had great success. i am paraphrasing. this is the world tailor made for his cue work. >> being president of the united states is not the same as being a real estate developer. the job of the president is to support policies. that is why we need serious tax reform. real regulatory reform. allowing us to utilize our energy resources. the best paying jobs for the 21st century. i think it is important for people running for president to

clearly detail, not just what they're going to do, how are you going to do it? what are the specific policies? this is too important an election to get wrong. neil: it certainly has to be north korea. nancy pelosi says there is very strong bipartisan support in congress. more sanctions against north korea. you advocated something you did further. a list of state sponsors of terror's. either way, what would that do? these guys just do what they want to do. >> first, we have to make sure they have less money to spend on these programs.

they were once on that list. they were removed as a concession. they need to be put back on. they are leaders in north korea. we should be going after them. we need to rebuild our military. being dramatically reduced in a dangerous way. if we continue with these defense cuts, we need to reverse them. humber for, we need to invest. intercontinental missiles. are ready capable of hitting the west coast of the united states. a comprehensive shield. both the west coast and the east coast. neil: those challenging our leadership, blaming that on president obama. family and up. passenger planes on these

islands. they have made their own. i am wondering, with u.s. president, what you would do about that type of behavior? a nation that sees what are considered a neutral water and just take them over. whether it is russia. the rest of ukraine. what would you do to stall that? >> those are the territorial waters. they are hoping that they will just accept it. everyone will say, what can they do about it? neil: what would president rubio do? >> i would sail right through those waters. i would put the u.s. navy and repeatedly sail through those

waters. as part of rebuilding our military alliance in the world, the japanese have quite an impressive navy. the philippines need an upgrade in their ability. we need to reinvigorate our military science. neil: i am sorry. they are not just beefing up a presence. if china was trying to land a military or passenger jet as it has done over the last couple of days. would you see that as an act of war? not they were to go after aggressively japan. we had defense agreements with these countries.

in this case, what you need to do is recharge their claims. artificial islands in the middle of this chain. they can claim territorial waters around it. we will reject their sovereignty over these areas. the other ones will have to answer the question of what to do about it. it is already a done deal. that is what russia has done with but it is good and crimea. there is no way to challenge that. we will never accept it. it is not just logical. shifting airplanes to challenge. the defense agreements in the region.

>> they are getting very close to the iowa caucuses. very close to the primary. things are getting heated in a campaign. lately, it you and chris christie have been going at it. he did not like them. you will not be able to slide your way to the white house. what did you think of that? >> they are 100% accurate. chris christie has supported republican support. chris christie supported a weapons ban. that is a reason he got into politics to begin with. chris christie has done a number of things that are very similar to the obama agenda. i just do not think this country can afford to elect their president that will not stand up and do it the damage barack obama has done to this country.

we cannot get this election wrong. barack obama has done incredible damage to the united states. when i am president, starting my first day of office, we will undo the damage. >> you say that it is not personal. chris christie was talking about all the times that you have miss crucial votes in the senate. you are right about that. i am a governor. 247. i get stuff done. what do you think of that? >> at the end of the day, chris christie is dismissing new jersey. he is running for president. i am running for president. the votes we taken the senate matter again. they are precooked.

everyone knows what the outcome will be. the votes are already counted. i am tired of voting on statement votes. late in. i want a president that will sign it and i will. i want a president that will undo the executive orders. the unconstitutional ones. i am running for president so we can have a president that undoes the damage that barack obama has done to america. we will win. when i get elected, i will begin . it seems to say that senators job is not. you guys just vote yay or nay on stocks.

the zap of you? >> no, it doesn't. being president is a unique office. you want to be commander-in-chief. showing better judgment. to be the commander in chief as the united states? that is the most important thing the president does. i will rebuild the military. we will defeat isis. that is why i am running.

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neil: well, this is no surprise. they both collectively hate north korea and more. they are now indicating that there will be a vote next week that is overwhelmingly supported by both parties. the vote could come next week. we don't know who they would target, but it is coming next week. that has been a part of the

noise in this market selloff. what do you make of it? >> shutting itself up to shake it down again. they have been doing this for over 20 years. one of the things that did work a few years ago was one putting north korea back on the terrorism list. going after all their sources. going after all the various bank accounts overseas. neil: we were doing that with iran. they were still doing all sorts of horrible stuff. the longevity or the same power of sanctions. north korea is a good example. >> it reduces their capacity to do so.

>> we took the pressure off. >> especially on the money side. it starts to lose its worker and stuff like that. >> all of this could be coming at a time. trying to get tougher with north korea. >> that is a whole another subject. this can be the new era there. because of the great diplomacy. what is happening with saudi arabia and iran is a key reason why the markets are volatile. neil: continuing this security. right until the end of the year. >> there is a feeling that the

man does not want to getting gauged in a serious way. a security issue could dominate. it will be a huge issue out there. any republican. perhaps not rand paul, but all the others. it will be interesting to see how hillary clinton response to that. how did does she walk away from her own record? she did in 1994. neil: a bipartisan slip on his part. we are one week away from the big debate. one candidate stands out to you. a shot of winning the whole

thing? >> i think it will be interesting to see how they do in this debate. donald trump is out there. all fighting to be the trump or the non-trump. what they will have to do is go into substance. who will put some real stuff on the table and advocated? for example, crews on the federal reserve. you have to be out the way that reagan was. neil: the closer you get to iowa and new hampshire higher, it is getting some attention. standing out. the way reagan stood out. >> back in iowa in 1980. george h. w. bush. reagan hit on the tax issue. made that the forefront. radical tax cuts.

we will see if another candidate can do that in the next couple of weeks. neil: who has the best chance of beating hillary clinton if she was a nominee right now? out of all of them. >> somebody like a rubio. starting to make real efforts. maybe you should take another look at them. this is why it will be very fluid in the next couple of weeks. going from dating to marriage. they will look at these people in a sharp way. neil: it has not gone away. >> that is why, again, they are fighting.

the nevada caucuses. we will be able to stay among the top two and three. if trump wins iowa and new hampshire higher, it is over. in south carolina, the trump people are going after democrats and independents. this will be very interesting before it is over. we cannot rule anything out. >> thank you very much. ben carson ousted campaign officials. it is donald trumps race to lose. it will be donald trump. i wonder how doctor carson's wife feels about that. candy carson is in the house. she will be joining me a little later. stick around. ♪ you pay your car insurance

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we are learning right now that oklahoma is setting its sights on marco rubio. multi billionaires. all coming to the conclusion that may be the florida senators -- shot at taking the white house does not mean anything. influence and support. weighing all the candidates.

he has indeed settled on marco rubio. that could be a game changer. sometimes that can keep that campaign afloat for quite a while. whether investors should get out or just stay put. it depends on perspective and timing. >> this is typically the time that folks go to cash. why? because they get fearful. back in 1991, the market added 20%. let me show you. this is the dow industrials from 1976 to president. despite the bursting of the housing bubble. stocks continue higher and higher. the average gain over the long term is six-7%.

i want to tell you something else about that chart, regarding the dow. you know what that starting value was, 858 lanes. it is up 1850%. stocks go up over time. there is no asset class. frankly, for small investors, staying in is the only way to win. neil. >> the trend is your friend. they are moving into bonds. that always helps. that brings interest rates down. candy carson. the wife of doctor ben carson. so much to ask her about. remember when ben carson was with me a couple weeks ago. he has a man cave. doctor ben carson. one of those claimed surgeons on the planet has a man cave. candy carson let him have one. think about that.

i will ask about the man cave and maybe this presidential race after this. ♪ i have asthma...

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neil: we are getting some news out of alabama. you aware that heard that a number of governors clashing with their attorney general. the law is the law. stop fighting this -- stop fighting this refugee. i think there are about 30 governors now. they are about 10,000 over the scheme of things in the next six months. you have seen what is going on. a selloff to tell you about. raising questions about how much the effect of the spillover

rattles us here. whether it is the start of something big. charlie gasparino is with us. and with you and maybe begin with you. your take on this. imagine you to reach out to the retail community. plenty nervous. how can you reassure them? >> even overseas. i am not hearing questions about opportunity. really paying off this year. the trend is probably not going to persist. stocks and bonds moving in an opposite direction. neil: a lot of these people have made money on paper.

cashing out and let this armageddon settle. i think short term there is more in the market. a 10 week moving average. you still get the overall picture. all of the major industries are below that level. fundamentally, it has been earnings and she we. they are definitely flat out. being weighed down by energy sector. qed is no longer around. charlie gasparino. all the major sectors are down. and from their highs. a lot of them bear market territory.

we are well off of our highs for most of the set errors. charlie: start buying. neil: the first five days of january. pointing out last night, i looked that look that the fed is not just in favor of qe. they are talking about raising interest rates. an economy on the economic cycles. talking about corporate earnings. corporate earnings flattening out. i put it all together. i say if you are a small investor, you really have to calculate whether this is a bear market share. charlie: we could talk about diversified portfolios which is where you are supposed to be. a mix of all sorts of investments.

i think you really do have to factor in 2016. the economy really does get impacted by china. everybody says, you guys know better than me, china only represents a 20% exposure to gdp. we do know that china has a bigger exposure to gdp. if all that slows down, what happens with us? will never raise interest rates again. >> what i am wondering, whether this is a sign to come. to charlie's point, four-month recovery. despite gravity it has decent ground. >> usually, we look at a seven-year expansion. the rest of the world is in that seven-year expansion as well. the recession last year, 11 and

14. europe was in recession 2013 and 14. they still had qe. neil: maybe they emerged the focus. not us. >> he is right. they are still doing qe and europe and japan. the fed keeps things stabilize. they are saying for rate hikes. i think there is too much uncertainty. >> zero may not be good news. the earnings environment that would keep the fed on hold. neil: all right. talking about china. a big political issue. john kasich as well.

>> china is in a lot of trouble. they have not been transparent. an ongoing cycle for months and years to come. >> i want to say one thing about this whole china thing. the world is paying a price. >> the fox business presidential debate. trust me, we will continue to do so. america does not really trust the government to fix any of this. there is this inheritance for us. it is a government that is in china trying to fix what it has. it is nice and cold. >> i have been doing some data looking this weekend in light of these elections. happy new year, neil.

it is fascinating. where they put their trust. 80% numbers. now about 19 say they trust the government. maybe a persona for publicans. 54% of democrats think that government is a bigger threat to america's future. we have more americans on government than ever. seven out of $10 to washington. goes right out to an individual. you can start to understand, looking at that why this election has fear. concern about the international community. >> i know what you are saying. and people start panicking, i always think they look anywhere they can for help.

the last thing you want is government doubling down. >> even republicans. when you look at even donald trump's answers to some of this, it is still much more government involvement. how do they define themselves in the midst of people saying we need government. we like to use it for economic interest. it is intriguing. hopefully some of these questions will be addressed next week. neil: they all say, well, our prescription is gabe regulations out of the way. cut taxes a lot. >> you are not hearing that that much. especially the last fox business the babe. we can also look at the states.

they certainly are not doing what the left says. we are not hearing that. i do not know if that has ever been in a position of republicans. neil: that is interesting. thank you. happy new year. always fun having you. we are in south carolina next week. you can imagine, at the debate. two days later. yes, we accept food. more after this. ♪

connell: back with breaking news on cavuto coast-to-coast. we were down 318. china fears working in. we work over to our heat map. walmart the only dow stock showing any kind of green today. the downside. talking to you about winners and losers. losers are very easy to find. an all-time low today. really struggling today. whatever it is, the stock has really been taking a hit to start the new year. apple down for three days in a row now. today, along with boeing. another stock getting hit this year. there are winners, even with the market down as much as it is. a look at macy's. walmart was one of the worst

performing stock / year. your winners and your losers. down more than 300 on the dow. neil: a lot of people say, in this environment, what do we do? we had a candidate on who says that there is sort of an alternative to republicans and democrats. >> i will take this opportunity to announce my candidacy for president. the president in 2016. in fact, offer that alternative. >> really lighting up. he could remember, obviously, what ralph nader was able to do in places like florida. we have former ross perot candidate joining us.

orchestrating a campaign. he got over 90% of the vote. you hear a lot of the bush senior folks sell it. they tip that one it one way or the other to a candidate. >> i think that they like to have plenty of excuses. they do not like responsibilities. everybody gets to come. period not really the problem for al gore. the construction of a ballot. more votes in one county than any other state in the country. probably both intended for al gore. neil: you raise a very good point. the most successful third-party candidate. back in history. thinking teddy roosevelt.

they can make very big impressions. they do not get the ross rang. very rarely a single electorate vote. >> they raise issues that the establishment candidate will not raise during the election. what typically happens after an election is the two bodies try to co-opt the issues of the independent candidate. both are republicans and democrats running around the country. the new term election and the next election. we see that throughout history. a third-party movement. the republican and democrats. helping to give them an electorate majority.

do you think that there will be a viable third party candidate or someone who will be up there on the stage? republican and democratic nominees. >> we are getting close to the deadline. has to be up there by march 2. >> the thought that trump would quit. he is saying that he won't. time is a wasting. some other independent wealthy individuals. doing it pretty quickly. they do have jim webb from the democratic party. he is in position. gary johnson will be going to an established party. other candidates, the liberated. having a process to get too many states. this year, he would have the

shadow of rand paul. the father. 2012, the lush ire of the libertarian. his problem would be raising the money. can you break older the republican democratic corporations. breaking his way through the national debates. neil: any candidate. always good seeing you. thank you very much. when i had carson on a couple weeks ago, they have been shaken off. now, we are learning, now we are learning a former lieutenant saying it does not matter. donald trump election to lose. i wonder what candy carson is thinking about that?

♪ marco rubio thinks it's unfair to criticize him for missing votes. "but i am going to miss votes, i'm running for president." but he's been missing votes for a long time. "one third of all of his missed votes in 2015 were missed before he announced he was running for president." over the last three years, marco rubio has missed more votes... than any other senator. washington politician marco rubio. doesn't show up for work, but wants a promotion? right to rise usa is responsible for the content of this message.

neil: all right. the doctor's wife in the house. before we get to candy carson, we have a selloff going on. revisiting lozier. what is going on? >> pretty quickly we have done it. oil is what we really have been watching. we were looking at the oil market at that time. as it came back, so did stocks. oil is down. starting to come back. looking like the stock market might come back. down 350. it looks like we will have, i

know we have been going on and on about how horrible of a start of a year it has been. three days of trading. the data will be down at least 3%. lower by more than 2%. a horrible start to the year. keeping a very close i on oil today. neil: a lot of people worry about this stuff. it is true in the first week of trading. generally indicating how the rest of the gear will go. not always. connell: not always. by the time they year wrapped up, every year is different. it is a gulf war. at the end of the cold war. i do not know, but those stats are always the best thing to look at. neil: we will be going back as we monitor these markets. it is outside noise. aware of what is going on.

not paying detailed attention to that. stocks go up, stocks go down. leave it at that. we have candy carson. it means a doctor. when you are out on the trail, do you look at that kind of stuff? >> he served on the corporate world. several different corporate boards for 30 years. he has a good business sense. yes. it is interesting to hear the difference. i was a spouse. you do not get to go to these meetings. a little bit can trickle through. it was interesting the

difference between a corporate board and an academic ward. that is a big difference. >> he loves anything that has to do with news. back then, i think it was martin luther king. that was a lot of excitement. and a lot of things going on. he is watching. >> nothing seems to rattle anything. very calm. almost to calm. very laid back. what are you going to do, doctor carson? what are you going to do. >> he would be calm on the outside. on the inside, he is looking at ways to make it stronger. neil: the former campaign manager saying he thinks it will be donald trump.

losing the chance. >> right to their opinion. what we see around the trail is large numbers. he is the author guy out. people who have not voted in a long time will come up and say i have been out of this for a long time. i am coming back. neil: more in the latest quarter. why is he so good at raising money, not so good at raising these poll numbers. >> part of the difference is, when you poll people, it is not one of those people without the standard deviation. getting back to pulling people that would likely vote. a lot of people coming up to us

who have not voted in years and years. we are getting a different picture. since he made that declaration on the 31st of december, the last thing i got was for the first four days of this month. a huge indicator is the telemarketing. it went up 42%. >> i know him better than anyone. there was this calm, very dedicated, decent human being. he is almost too nice to be president of the united states. >> he does what he needs to do to get the job done. >> , on. he will do what needs to be done.

he will do it in an ethical way. >> he really enjoyed his training. learning those manuals. surrounding himself with people who have had experience in map. >> known in an interview. a very impressive guy. operating open. having said that, is there a different talents that? i think i will run for president of the united states. did you at any point say what? >> of course. i am human. i want my husband back. when he was not home, we knew he was saving lives. >> it would seems like you transit queen knew what he did.

>> no. it is not something that was on our bucket list. at this point, i do realize how serious our country is. the situations that are here. unemployment. all kinds of things going on. neil: you were able to make that sacrifice. >> of course. you should have the same opportunities. >> it goes by that day. spieth. >> you missed the faces. a payoff rate of $10 million a day. neil: you have done your homework, young lady. we were fiscally responsible. there would be no fiscal debt.

we have to say the number. if we don't get the number out there, people will not understand it we are over 200 trillion now. working for the next generation. that is not right. real quickly, i found out that your husband does have a man cave. one hundred people. >> yes. someone else's calling it a man cave. it is really a people cave. it is a people cave.

okay. typical things that you find. there is a big-screen tv. we kept it down there. when we have people over, we host a party every year. up to 100 people. some people will not be interested. they want to see what is going on with the game. we have the foosball table. it is about we the people, still. sometimes you have your corn chips and not chose. you know. >> all right. a real pleasure. doctor in the house. she is the one who has been running for president. i am joking. good, good people.

>> hank you for having me. >> i will see you next week in charleston. for the debate. he snaps to for you, doesn't he. we do not always agree. [laughter] thank you very much. she must have some magical effect here. it uses up a little bit. needing it and oil sinking. the groups are leading us lower. technology stocks are not doing well today.

they are also down. industrials. the ge's of the world. the material stocks. it seems a little bit of strength in retail. china was destroyed. global economic slowdown. watching oil and watching stocks. it seems like stocks fade as water comes back. we have seen that since opening bell this morning. neil: thank you very much. what the heck is behind this? the start of the year. two, was point. it does not mean it is always the rest of the year. that is the case.

just -- >> i think you are right about that. you see the headlines coming out of bank of kicks off next week. we'll see about a 5% downturn in corporate earnings, according to b-of-a merrill. s&p i.q. handicaps it around 4.6%. that is big significant drop. we can't underestimate, we've been talking about china all day long. but it is important, when you look at big stocks exposed to china, neil, jpmorgan chase, put a number to it. they said, for example, apple getting 11% of its sales from china. we're looking at stocks like yum! brands, double-digit sales from china. also mgm grand, wynn resorts, still major players in the u.s. have major exposure to china. u.s. manufacturing in recession. watching jobs number in

tomorrow. only 17,000 jobs created in manufacturing. that is oil patch downturn. neil: a lot going on. francis, i look for a half full on day like this, money has to go somewhere. interest rates are coming down, so the fed might be picking them up in the short market but interest rates are moving down the market rates. 10-year treasury notes and the like, that would mean cheaper mortgages for folks, refinancings and like. low gas prices continue to be commonplace rule of the land. is that going to sort of provide a cushion, a floor to this? what do you think? >> yeah, you're absolutely correct. as long as there's money it will be spent somewhere. another key thing i haven't heard today, government spending creates is high. it i will be created across circulation. we've outsourced our

manufacturing which gives us vulnerability in china. we got ourselves out of the 2008 crisis on stimulus. and quantitative easing. so it is fundamentally weak. but as long as there is money in circulation, then we will see that weakness play out at a glacial pace. i think there is quite a bit of a buffer in some of the things you mentioned and also government spending being as high as it is. neil: we were talking with connell mcshane as we continue discussion with the market down 350 points. we were looking for an cues to to -- an excuse to sell, connell and economic powerhouse is in trouble and we had a nice run-up. a lot of people are saying this is a good time to get out of dodge. how much of that is playing into it? >> might be a lot of it. gerri willis was on earlier she was talking about a long-term trend in stocks. it is good to get perspective over the long haul stocks go up. but it can be very, very painful

for people when they come down. what is happening in china, obviously cliche watch what happens there affects us. this global slowdown is real fear, with china trying to control the economy in a it probably can't and live in the rest of the world we all live in what happens next? federal reserve can't save us in the united states. that's with we've been leaning or fon years. if we don't have the safety blanket, the long-term trend in stocks and long run-up, may continue next 15, 20 years, the next few weeks and months could be quite painful. neil: down 365. one of the things worrisome tomorrow, i was hearing you on stuart varney's show talking about chinese intention right now to drop this whole circuit breaker thing and sort of fly without life raft here. >> right. neil: i guess they were trying to show faith in the markets and all but what if markets don't comply? >> exactly right.

what if the markets don't comply? remember, neil, you were covering it back in january of 2007, you know. same thing happened. the markets really cratered when china's markets went down. i think about 9%. that was worst showing since the dot-com bust at that time. it happened again in january of last year. china had conniptions and our market started to go down. is it enough to instill confidence that china will give market as free ride? i will tell you something, hate to say, take a wait-and-see. we'll see that in trading, as trading begins overnight. but one thing at that really stands out is time and again we don't know really, market watchers on wall street, neil, are telling us they don't think china will collapse. it is not really zero-sum game. they think it's a slow and messy regime change possibly. they're talking about down there as a black swan event. you know, remember, 1989, nobody predicted soviet union's

collapse. even cia didn't see it. neil: fair enough. >> they're talking about things like that. that is watercooler talk we're picking up from wall street. neil: francis, what i also hear, that people hope governments will do something. i hope they don't. not to be cavalier and have pain keep coming. i think pain is extended and exaggerated and postponed when governments intervene, even things on part of circuit breakers with the exchanges or governments buying a lot of debt. provides salve and help in the meantime but postpones the agony. i don't know if awe rye agree with that to lizzie's point, circuit breakers don't work because we're selling off and we'll do something else. i don't think lets the markets do their thing, even a brutal thing. what do you think? >> no, i completely agree with you. china has 207% debt-to-gdp ratio. that is hugely exacerbated.

it has gone up so far so fast on unsustainable angle. they will jump to make something sustain unsustainable sustainable. and government can't actually do that. they provide failure and failure. they provide false hope. governments can not control free markets. there are too many variable. >> right. >> too much money floating around for them to be able to effectively management and i like what liz said about the regime change. i think that will ultimately have to be that occurs as a result of this failure. neil: i want to bring in todd from the cme what the reed out there with panic sets in and panic sell being begets panic selling and psychological and riding that wave. what do you see? >> it does, neil. when you look at markets have done, no one expected this kind of selloff and no one expected this kind of volatility this

early in the year. one of the big indicates -- indicators is gold. gold is up $50 an ounce since december. there is undertow to this market move. i don't think anyone say it this clearly this fast. certainly downside to the equity markets. you will see retail sellers coming in watching 401(k)s. neil: gold is minor beneficiary but where? >> yeah, right now rates are going lowerrer as well. that is one place you will park your money. two year notes seem attractive since the fed tightened. there is short-term need to park he can equity money. this will be probably a hiccup than a long-term selloff. neil: 10-year notes, rates which the fed has no control. so it is busy raising rates, right? and mark competent is busy lower

them. flight to quality and pushing up treasury note and bond prices, the yield comes down. that generally leads to something called a flatter or flattening yield curve. which generally telegraphs trouble. are you worried about trouble? >> well, let's not forget what stanley fischer said yesterday, and don't be misled bit markets. i think that was a little bit of a courageous statement on his part. the markets are typically right. we're right and wrong but the markets are always right because they always are. the trouble we'll see comes in many forms. goes back to the central bank intervention started six or seven years ago. that is starting to unfold here. as you can see the equity markets may be loosening a little bit. rates markets are very numb to what's happening. seeing very low levels of volatility and yields not reacting to equity moves. right now i think it's a central bank trade. >> neil, sorry, just as an

addendum to what todd is saying here. the other thing wall street is talking about, bringing up the "r" word. they're talking about recession. looking ism manufacturing number trending towards 45, it is 48 right now. that means manufacturing is in contraction here in the united states. if it trends towards 45, that indicates that you know, 11 out of 13 times since world war ii that triggers that means recession is here. if we have corporate profits down two quarters in a row, that can indicate recession. i got to say time and again we saw the 18,000 on the dow, guys, out there, time and again, the rainbow spotters were way too much in control. one guy told me this morning, said on maria's show, house is on fire, and everyone is smoking in bed. what were they telling their clients, you know what i mean neil? neil: yeah. >> the question in the manufacturing sector can, the auto industry seems to be doing okay, best year since 2000. can that offset the decline in the oil patch.

that is the backstory there. neil: you mentioned black swan, china could be that event. not just what is going on in the markets but increasing bellicose and landing passenger jet on one of these islands reconfigured to their own liking in international waters. that is stuff that worries former ambassador joseph thomas, following this closely. ambassador, as former assistant secretary of state, if you were in office at that time when something like this were going on, i'm sure you or your boss would be picking up the phone asking the chinese, what the hell are you doing? i don't know what we're doing now. that is worrisome development, is it not? >> it is worrisome and it is worrisome because you can see from -- your ticker how deeply intertwined our markets and our economies are. this is the 21st century equivalent of mutually assured destruction.

we and the chinese have to work together in the area of markets and economy. neil: but they're not, they're not. they keep doing this to your point, ambassador, and almost flaunting it. one thing to sort of militarize islands that aren't yours. quite another thing to shove it back in our face and land passenger and military jets on said islands despite our protests. this to me sound or has makings of being international crisis, right? especially if you're china and you're economically falling out of bed, nothing distracts folks like paying attention to the shiny military conflict, right? >> there is always the risk when you're, the economy for the chinese leadership is part of their legitimacy. so there's always that risk, when a guy's legitimacy is at risk he looks for something to shore it up. there is no question that is a a problem in that area. that probably argues against

puffing out your chest against that guy because he is already under stress. this is part of some of normal push and shove between great powers. it is what we do between great powers. try to establish borderlines. neil: that requires great powers to do great things, right. >> the other thing about this is the chinese leadership, they are a pragmatic bunch and they think long-term and strategically. they're not advent you arers. so i think there is way to work with this. i agree with you, picking up the phone saying what the hell is going on is not a bad idea. that is the key point start talk to the chinese about a whole series of things, not just the islands, but north korea, a whole series of things where we have strattic relationship, where we don't want the chinese when they're on edge to get closer to the cliff. neil: update for those tuning

in. we're sticking on this screen. we will on bottom of the screen bring you individual stock stories, individual sector stories. but as we are we're in and out of session lows today, 347 points. dow is getting very close to correction territory, 10% off the highs or 8 plus percent right now. in of itself doesn't mean you go to the next stage, bear market, fall of 20% or more off the highs. more than half s&p stocks are in that territory, in other words, 20% below their highs. i want to talk about the departure from 52-week highs, virtually every major sector in this market according to my buddy charles payne is at or close to bear market territory. that would include consumer staples which are down close to 20%. no surprise there, down 50% from highs i'm talking about. financials down about 19%. health care about 21%.

industrials, 24%. technology 23%. there will be a quiz so you have to keep up with me. materials, 31%. i only mentioned materials if you thought commodities and other things money would find safe haven it is not today. that doesn't mean it can't another day. on a day a lot of things are down, everything can't be momentarily down. the question is, how long is momentarily. we have cast of characters. emac, francis. charlie gasparino joined us. jo ling kent, connell mcshane and pricewaterhousecoopers shannon slaughter. shannon you're hearing this. what do you say to your clients? >> we say what do you say to your employees. they're a huge part of the economic base. neil: that is out the window. >> trying to figure out what to do for themselves. 70% of the workforce are millenials. trying to them them what they need to do. neil: what do you do? >> we make sure we are a part of their retirement savings.

only 3 of% are a part of their retirement savings and 20% are taking some of it out. neil: is that right? >> long-term effect. neil: before any of this? >> before any of this they're taking it out. before any of this, 30% of them have overdrawn checking accounts. this is issue we see compounding. neil: this is millenials? >> these are millenials. neil: gaspo? >> i was going to say of course. >> you unleashed a dragon. >> that was fastball about 80 miles an hour. i don't think come as any surprise millenals are overinvesting. over running credit cards. disaster waiting to happen. neil: boomer generation -- >> i don't know, bad college education. the biggser point here is this i believe, are we heading not just for correction but for bear market? if you are, take millenials out

of it, because they don't listen to you anyway, if you're savvy investor should you be in cash right now? that is something you have to really consider. listen i'm not expert at this. if you listen to enough experts china represents 7% of our gdp but represent a bigger piece of gdp globally, if they slow down, global economy slows down. that has to hit us when we're only, u.s. economy is growing sort of average of 2%. neil: could be significant bear market territory. what do you think of that? >> looking at china story, shows no sign of stopping anytime soon neil: success part of the story? >> no, failure part of the story. getting economy back on its feet turning towards a consumer driven economy. if you look what happened this week, peoples bank of china stepping in trying to hold the markets together on monday night. held for 24 hours before they devalued yuan again and panic. they're taking a way trigger function that was not supposed

to incite panic in the first place. we'll see what happens. they're basically scrambling. >> maybe a flannel wall, government, poll lit borrow in china, they're -- politburo. part of it is cultural they feel like they can control. they come up to the communist party. they feel like they can control the economy. they want to do something to control it make it better, inclination is act, do something, pump money in when it starts to backfire -- >> i think the two clips we had today, one from kasich and rubio were so -- that's telling. i will say this during china's economic miracle as much as it was, you would hear a lot of democratic politicians say look what they're doing by managing economy. look how much success they're having. now the chickens are coming home to roost. you know what? market forces always prevail. neil: i think they lied about that. >> i agree. neil: shannon skyler, sorry i

misproannounced your name. i will get to you, shannon, i promise. one thing i wanted to clarify, my suspicion is chinese were lying about how well they were doing. they side 7% and i never believed that. i wonder if this is part of that they are exposed for statistical frauds they were. >> a lot is come home to roost. who is telling the truth. everyone likes to paint a better story. waiting for everything to come out. i think combination of when you look at markets, really looking at shifts that are happening i think you're right. i think they weren't telling the truth. >> what you're saying, neil, is that the market is taking a 20% haircut because they don't believe i anything coming out --

neil: that is exactly right. kind of what i said. >> thank you. neil: but you said it better. i'm sorry, kiddo. >> that's all right. two numbers stand out about china. , 400 million seniors in china, that is bigger than population. united states next 20 years when the per capita income is $12,000. china is desperately trying to move to innovative knowledge based economy but it doesn't have the soft economic power like we do in terms of our brands known around the world. neil: now, francis, if they do, the world fear can play on fear. correction territory to bear market fairly quickly. do you worry about the

psychology of this gets worse? >> the psychology is little bit dire. those have mathematical complication. we have to take out lows of august 25. higher low on 1875 on s&p. 15,750 on dow. i would say we're not in bear market territory until we take out the lows and have that momentum. >> 15,750? >> power money buffers this. we have a lot of money in circulation. neil: three times the amount of ground we're losing to that. we do that in about a minute in china. what if comes like melt down feel. people fear. don't make it melt down. >> just getting emails from analysts in china right now. real concern. neil: looks like a lunch order. >> email.

neil: but you know there is, one person saying that you know there is nothing nothing holding up market about this speculative belief that the markets make sure they stay up. that itself is circular logic. when you think about sustaining economy and a lot of new retail people trading on markets never really done this before. they may have entered into the market a couple years ago. >> retail from china? >> pardon? >> retail from china? >> retail investors investing in the markets. >> in u.s. markets? >> no, china. you have volatility will be sustained nor variety of reasons. whether melt down they extend it, extended three months the rule you can't sell up to a certain limit. neil: what do they do? do they shoot you? >> you just can't. can't sell. >> gulags. >> the issue here is what do

market -- >> there is that issue. neil: the government says we don't think it is very good idea to do this, right? >> here is what will happen to you in markets outside of the u.s. and china. will this help. rich people in china are still pretty rich. >> yes. >> do they move more of their money? -- neil: ordering all these $100 million penthouse. >> they're leaving country. >> we're seeing a slowdown. neil: they're leaving the country now? >> yes. 2/3 of them according to surveys, saying the rich of china are left or leaving or plan to emigrate out of the country. neil: that's cool because the rich in the united states, they have left. where do they go, with one the islands they militarized? >> we're seeing uneducated investors. only 24% of the millenial population knows how to -- >> they are not investors. >> they are not investing. they don't know how to. neil: he hates young people. >> if you want to know who is

investor in this market from retail standpoint, it is people over 35 and it is algorithms and professional traders. and those -- neil: never said a negative thing about baby boomers, our generation. >> i wonder why? always the chinese. by the way, and they're reacting to, got to take millenials out. it is like, if -- neil: our demo. our demo. >> chinese markets. chinese markets. neil: you know, charlie -- >> algorithms. neil: don't get me going on algorithms. the one thing i want to know, francis from your perspective, money found a place today, albeit by not same dimensionses stocks to bonds, gold tangent alley, where is the rest of it

going? what are people doing with the money they're taking out? >> i think people are pulling away parking in cash because there is uncertainty. if the fed continues to raise rates -- neil: i think they will hold off. >> i think they will hold off as well see if fixed income -- neil: sounds like from the last meeting they had second thoughts about raising rates. >> made us think if something happens they raise rates. neil: they said look, we have got to do this. got to have cover. market steams to be picking up. inflation is low. they didn't do it gung-ho. >> when jerry seinfeld joined federal reserve board. well, we had -- neil: that is what he said. i don't believe i said jerry

seinfeld. >> you're probably about right about that. i think, i do think the federal reserve will hold off for what it is worth. nobody cares. neil: i do. >> this whole conversation it is odd our mind set, likes '08 -- number of -- >> everything is through. neil: a little annoying. >> it is, right? we keep sighing, oh, what is the government going to do. what happens if our government -- neil: then the government stay out? >> we can do something. called tax reform. won't do it for another section. neil: when if we had a millenial democrat? >> one person you should have had on the show, just telling you steve lieb. china! neil: i do want to update you on stuff. nasdaq briefly, very briefly,

touch correction territory. dow and s&p, falling 10% from the highs. next stop is 20% which gets you into bear market. seven times we have connects that didn't turn into bear markets. other times we do. trish? trish: thank you so much, neil cavuto. breaking this hour everyone, instability in china sparking a selloff here at home. the dow's worst selloff in the new year since 1991. i'm trish regan. welcome to "the intelligence report." markets came to a halt only 29 minutes into the trading day. they instituted is called circuit breakers second time this week. china announced it would do away with the circuit breaker system. the circuit breakers are designed to temper huge fluctuations in chinese markets. doesn't look like it is doing that well. tomorrow there is end of it. what does it mean for the