stock market hanging tough. neil. take it away. neil: well, i'm just notifying you had the heavy weight boxing champ. pretty smooth. we have the international bocce ball champ. top that, payne. all right. thanks, buddy. we've got a lot going on in the next two hours up might have heard there's a debate later this week. there's a state of the union address. you know, this is when everything -- really, really serious right now. the state of the union usually provides the context for the first of the nation iowa caucuses, which come on february 11th as you know and the new hampshire primary on february 9th. but, again, you're going to notice in things rapid fire fashion right now. polls begin to really, really matter because they begin to really, really reflect on what's on people's nines all of these crucial states and some of the latest are very, very revealing. blake berman with the latest on that. hey, blake. >> yeah. you're exactly right. a lot of the people throughout this entire process have been saying wait until we get to

the early january. well, here we are and the first fresh batch of polls this year basically shows it's the status quo as we ended 2015. the latest fox news poll shows donald trump has a commanding lead over the republican field. take a look at that. trump with a little bit more than support from one and three voters. ted cruz remains if second there at 20%. but when we move over to iowa the first in the nation caucus, it remains trump, cruz, one, two. but cruz on top at 27. trump four points behind at 23. would point out, though, as you can see on the bottom that does remain within the margin of error. from there, it will be a mad dash eventually over to new hampshire and the latest polling there shows trump still holdings a huge lead in the first in the nation primary. getting support there from 33% of voters. and you'll notice it is ruby second but still cruz there in the top three. this trump/cruz showdown does

not appear to be slowing down any time soon, neil. trump continues to pose questions about cruz's eligibility to become president. because as we know now, he was born in canada to a american mother. here was trump from over the weekend. >> i did not bring this up. washington post brought it up. >> i know but people say you're patrolling him -- >> i'm not patrolling him. >> you're sticking in the knife. >> no. i'm not. what he should do is ask for clarity judgment. >> and we'll see if this has any effect on the numbers going forward. it doesn't appear to be at this point. donald trump just wrapped up a rally it in new hampshire and i'm quoting here ted cruz has a problem. neil: here we go. i love it when they get nasty with each other. all right, blake, thank you very, very much. the issue that's coming up here regarding senator cruz as blake pointed out is whether he's not just a citizen of the united states born to a american mother in canada. that would count.

but whether he is a natural-born citizen. they're arguing over what appear to be semantics and one that even the senator's opponent say is a mute point. it has become a big issue. rand paul arguing that distinction today both on fox business and fox news. real clear politics rebecca on how big of an issue this becomes between the two parent leaders in this republican race. donald trump and ted cruz. what do you think, rebecca? >> well, what's been interesting to me, neil, to watch is that as donald trump has come out, apparently attacking ted cruz not only for being born in canada to an american mother, questioning publically his eligibility to run for president. but he's also saying now that ted cruz stole his idea for a wall to -- form a border security with mexico. basically accusing him of flip-flopping and changing his views. what's interesting is all of this has happened is that ted cruz has restrained himself

and very deliberately not fought back against donald trump. it is his point not to fight -- neil: well, we're told it's going to change. i don't know how much it changes, i don't know how nasty it gets. he has been letting it off here but now approached a widespread debate within the property. probably owing to the senator standing in the polls. but how nasty do you think this duets? >> well, that's a great question, and i think we'll get a good sense of that at the debate this week when we'll see donald trump and ted cruz together on stage for the first time since donald trump started really attacking ted cruz. but it's tough to say because ted cruz as i mentioned doesn't want to attack his other opponents because it gives him an error of confidence. but he can't also at the same time if you're timid in the face of donald trump's attacks. other candidates have made that mistake. other candidates have made the mistake of going after trump too hard. so ted cruz has a very fine line to walk here and they to

need thread that needle in the debate this week. neil: you follow this so very, very well for a living but a lot of people telling me neil i wasn't aware that he was born out of the country. and how do you explain all of that? and they say okay. fine. but there could be an argument of what donald trump is saying and other candidates to weigh in as well including as i said rand paul is an element of doubt. all they want to raise is an element of doubt is that, yeah, you might like ted cruz but there is the possibility that democrats could drag into a constitutional debate or lawyers could have a fuss. do you really need that? i think that's what they're after just to extend or drag this out where there might not be much reason to do so. and give another reason to sort of stand back with cruz. is that what they're up to? >> i think you're absolutely right. and there is an element of doubt here because this actually hasn't been tested in court. so we all assume that ted cruz is a natural-born citizen.

but actually we've never had a presidential candidate this is the theory with the supreme court in the court of law. ted cruz had somewhat of an advantage here because he has argued before the superior court. he has studied the constitution from a legal perspective. but you're right. it does cast some doubt and no one can prove ted cruz right or wrong and that plays to donald trump's advantage here. neil: in other words, if you have any doubt -- we're all -- everyone's weighing these kansas. anything that might be slightly out of the norm or make you think in a close call should i go with this guy or that guy? this is another bit of noise that might make you go to someone other than cruz; right? that's what they're up to. >> sure. absolutely. and donald trump recognizes that ted cruz supporters could very well be donald trump supporters just like -- neil: right? >> like a lot of donald trump supporters say their second choice choice would be ted cruz. there's a lot of overlap of what they're trying to appeal to. so it's no accident that he's going after ted cruz, other than just explicitly attacking him. neil: all right. we'll watch

very closely. in the meantime we've got mike warren. if hillary clinton is in as rough of shape as she seems in polls, is she the guaranteed democratic nominee? now, polls are fleeting and do change but this is too close for comfort in both iowa and new hampshire she's in the fight of her life. in fact, in iowa a little more than a month ago she led by 15 points. now, that is a statistical dead heat in new hampshire. bernie sanders is leading her. so obviously, mike, the question becomes can she afford to get out of iowa, new hampshire, and not win either? what do you think? >> well, that would certainly be interesting. i think you would have a lot of democrats panicking if bernie sanders won. even just one of those early states. and then you have the socialist, the guy who calls himself a socialist as a defacto leader, the party. and i think that should spook them a little bit. there's a lot of confidence out there that hillary clinton will be the nominee.

but by having bernie sanders stick around as long as he has and not just stick around but as you said, you know, is really within parody within hillary clinton in some of these earlier states. that's got to have them nervous. that's not the image they want to go into a general election with hillary clinton at the top of the ticket. neil: and correct me if i'm wrong but on the republican side of the eventual nominee won either of those initial states iowa or new hampshire oftentimes both. so she cannot afford i think to go 0-# at the start but we'll see; right? >> yeah. i guess. i mean this is kind of a strange cycle and really anything could happen. there's all the top on the republican side of it stretching out beyond the first two states. charles: in the meantime katherine is reporting that the fbi is widening this hillary clinton probe over a possible intersection of the clinton foundation where she did along with her state department business both in office and out of office. now, that adds another new element to this investigation. you're talking about potential public corruption -- is it the

kind of thing that you think even if the fbi were to recommend taking stiffer charges even an indictment that the justice department would have to accept but she's tainted? she's in trouble? >> not that i can think of general election, that is definitely true. in a lot of republicans are counting on that if she's the nominee. i still think that she has a really difficult shot of losing the democratic nomination over that sort of thing. i think bernie sanders took that issue out of the debate at that first democratic debate where he basically said i'm not going to touch this stuff. neil: but, you know, what's interesting about that -- mike, i hear you. but you know what's interesting. even though he has, i don't know if that's weighing on her poll numbers but something is because even with that issue not in the equation for potential democratic voters, she's still staggering. so i'm wondering if she were to lose iowa and new hampshire right out the gate. i know the belief is her basis support of minorities and the rest, evidence itself in

states like south carolina, southern primary the so cadillac scc primary. that's where she'll recoup that. but that a hail marry-type pass, is it not? >> possible. let me tell you what i saw last week when i was in iowa. i saw hillary clinton talk it to a lot of democratic supporters. there's just not the enthusiasm that there was eight years ago for the democratic primary process in general. people just assume that she's going to do it. so that's i think resulted in hillary clinton kind of running a lethargic campaign. i think if you do see bernie sanders win one of these early states, she's going to do what she did eight years ago when she lost iowa to barack obama, which is really reenergize herself. and the question is does she have the same amount of fight in her than eight years ago. and that's one of the questions i'm seeing on the trail. she's very boring and will he lather ric.

and i wouldn't count against her. neil: yeah, and that would involve the party reestablishment patiently waiting for her to recoup if they're concerned that she looks like a loser, they could find somebody else. we'll see. mike, thank you very, very much. >> thanks, neil. neil: all right. all of these happening at the same time. you've got the president's state of the union address tomorrow obviously likely for the candidates debating on the 14th. that is thursday of this week in charleston, south carolina. we'll keep you posted on that and how it's all faring the candidates. very nervous ahead of the details coming tonight on lou dobbs' show about who's going to make which debate. you already heard rand paul he better make that main debate or else. we don't know what the or else is, but he is upset. take a look at the dow now up about 52 points. oil is having a tough go at it again. we are looking at oil below $32 since the first time since 2003. and that development is not a constructive one for the party

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call liberty mutual for a free quote today at see car insurance in a whole new light. liberty mutual insurance. neil: you know what is weird so far about our markets is, first of all, we're not down when china surrendered 5%. but apple even though well off its highs, it is up today. up on friday. it would represent if it closed up the first back-to-back up days in seven weeks. now, whether that means anything for those who play one of the most widely held stocks on the planet is rebounding. but that would be a first in close to two months. meanwhile something not nearly as bullish, oil dropping below 32 bucks per barrel, the first time we've seen that since 2003. connell mcshane was just coming out of college. so it's bringing back all of

his most horrific memories. connell, what's going on here? >> well, it is. there were a lot of horrific numbers in college. neil: don't even go there. >> boy, it's interesting. the time of all of this. you talked about earlier this is, the state of the union tomorrow leading up to your big debate on thursday night and then the three weeks in iowa. so we very well may be heading into a recession. not a economic recession which is what people usually think of when they hear that but a profit recession or earnings recession. getting ready to report their numbers and let me show you ours. down 4.2%, truth be told these are thompson rioters but down the expected 2015 fourth quarter numbers. 3% down on the revenue side. now, what does that mean? well, the second straight quarter we've seen it, so that your definition of a recession. an earnings recession. interesting timing for all of this. in fact, s&p 500 companies if you look further into the numbers are expected to on

show zero growth at all for the whole year 2015. now, the bigger question is what does this year look like? now, in terms of groups -- obviously we look at all time energy but instead let's look at consumer discretionary. but these companies amazon and netflix, they drove the market last year. so we're starting to see more signs of -- i don't know a crack is the right word but certainly a number of companies in this group have started to warn us some rough times ahead. macy's would be a great example talking about it cutting its outlook here. so as those things start to happen, you start to think about profits. now, one small sign today, neil, if you want to take it. big merger in biotech, a $32 billion deal that you see right there. so. neil: interesting your leap on the irish company. >> i always look at -- yeah. neil: an italian company if it does something. but, no, it's invisible. did not happen. >> nothing with the italians today. keeping under the wires. neil: thank you very much, my friend. of course he was alluding to

that $32 billion pharmaceutical pairing. what's interesting of course the irish based gets the tax benefits right now pays 23% or so tax merger. and would pay 16%. i know where this is going. gary, joining us now no fan of the markets, very, very bearish, but likely uproar it's going to create on capitol hill. what do you think. >> look, i think the deal is going to go through. there's going to be a lot more talk of these deals going forward in the tax consequence. but notice it has gotten a lot quieter in the last few months after getting loud a few weeks ago. and i think there's going to be a lot less gets done. neil: you put a quote over the weekend, detailing why the under penning of this market don't look good. you refer to the fact that they're bearish. 100% of the time we come back from these, which is i thought

a nice point but you waited until the end of the piece after supreme long slashed their wrists to get to it. why are you so bearish? what makes you think that this time -- this sell i just don't of is bigger than anyone is giving it credit for? >> neil, i have studied every bull and bear market going back 100 years and this market completely over the last six to nine months reminds me of '07, '08, of '99 and 2000 and every time i stated it to you, '72, '73 and all brought in brutal markets. neil: all three -- firm much more lofty valuations going into them. you could argue now even with this we're still a little bit north of where this market should should be to justify these earnings. but not that much. are we? >> look, you have to remember something that i don't think a lot of people are factoring in. i am a big believer that this economy is based on steroids. never in our lifetime have we

had 0% interest rates for years and years and the printing of 15 to $20 trillion around the globe. and i think that game is up right now. i really do believe markets are no longer listening or caring about what central banks do, and i have to tell you in the last few weeks both europe and japan announced more qe and markets reacted badly. i just think, look, i think we're simply in a bear market for stocks. i think the next six months are going to be worse than the last -- neil: how much worse? and, by the way, you're referring to quantity of easing with central banks. >> yes. neil: moving up and buy anything they can with their hot little hands. but what do you see happening now? spell it out. >> well, based on the fact we have not had a bear market in seven years, i think we're going to go into the 14s in the dow and probably the 13s. neil: so 14s in the dow from -- >> from 18.3 from the top into the 14s maybe into the 13s. and just realize we have not had a bear market in seven years. this would be absolutely

normal to happen. it is really a normal course of business and central banks all they have done is interfered with the fearing greed of investors with the moves that they have made over the years. so i just think we're there. as connell said, we are definitely in a profits recession. we are in a sales growth recession also. that is part of the equation -- neil: and what would you buy? in this environment, what would you be buying? >> if i had to own anything, it's the things that have been holding up and that is the recession resistant names, food, health, tobacco, household products, and i would steer clear of all the big winners of the last year as they are overowned. neil: what about the bonds? what about the bonds? >> bonds are going to be fine. neil: they're going to be fine. okay. >> you just sit at 2% and you're going to be a-okay. i would not own junk bonds, though. there's a way to go, grade a copters, but i would not go out long term because economically they could be affected too. neil: all right, gary, thank you very much.

not really but thank you anyway. all right. you know angela merkel in germany has been leading the world call to take in a lot of refugees that are coming in. largely from syria. in fact, she says we're going to take a million of them. well, that's not sitting well with a lot of german folks who have been protesting all over the country right now. but some of those refugees who snuck in there or even welcomed there, they're doing a lot of bad things. after this.

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neil: all right. well, if you're a fitness buff like me. this is probably shocking you -- why are you guys laughing? fitbit is now trading below its offering price. down additional 11%. i don't know what could explain this. i'm told there was some problem oriole where they said it wasn't adequately reading your heart measurements.

i found it annoying that it didn't compensate for my intake. whatever the case is, fitbit is causing investors fits right now. well off its ipo offering. the nasdaq, by the way, is right now trading lower. but what's interesting about what's going on in nasdaq, not that it's trading lower. but this would represent the longest streak. eight consecutive days that it has had in eight years since january 8, 2008. again, part of these overall indicators that do not look promising to him. we'll keep an eye on it for you as the dow has been surrendered earlier gains. down. and falling an additional 5%. a lot of people were surprised to see that with the understanding will buck that trend.

so far with the dow turning negative, maybe not so fast. we have another three and a half hours of trading to go. halfway across the globe to germany where this refugee problem is getting big or shall we say much bigger. as you know angela merkel of germany said all of you do the right and things take take in millions of immigrants and protect them the asylum and make it a security capitalist society. well, what's happening is that many of those in the capitalist society are resisting the one million she wants to let in over the new year's weekend and afterwards. and there have been some crimes and rapes attributed to those refugees. they can't prove it and, again, a small portion of all the refugees. but you can imagine that it is incited enormous resistance. gabriel on that on what she thinks of the global impact of what's going on in germany. what do you think?

>> well, germany is reaping the results of importing something an ideology and culture that is not capable with western civilization or german culture. these muslim arab men who have been imported do not share the respect of women that we in the west have. or quality. they look at women as property. they look at women as something to use. they -- rape doesn't even exist in marriage in islamic culture. so now we are seeing the class of civilization on a very microscopic version in germany. neil: but, as you know angela merkel has said these incidents attributed to some of these refugees represent but a few. the president tomorrow in the state of the union address i'm told is going to have a syrian refugee eventually got to detroit after his wife and daughter and other family members were killed in an attack by assad.

and that he represents this doctor whose made a new home and life of it in detroit is representative of most of those refugees. not somebody -- what do you think of that? >> he is the very, very rare exception. the reality is the rapes in europe and the crimes are by the thousands. the gang rape was over 1,000 on new year's and the german authorities covered it up as well as they covered up 1400 in a little town also refugees who have committed rape. we do not want to import the same thing to the united states. is the president making a political point. but there are members congress right now who are working on a bill specifically congressman in trying to stop the president from bringing refugees into the country. we have launched our refugee resettlement working group to stop refugees from coming. we are holding a national conference call. for more information, people can go to our website and sign up to become a part of the

refugee resettlement working group. neil: it would be something if this topples angela merkel's conservative coalition. because right now strengthening as a result. thank you very, very much. >> yes. neil: good seeing you again. as we were talking oil has slipped, down over 5% today and suddenly all those predictions that oil could get to 20 something. one even saying $20. well, that would be much cheaper gas for you. but is it any cheaper for the economy? we'll debate it. after this marco rubio thinks it's unfair to criticize him for missing votes. "but i am going to miss votes, i'm running for president." but he's been missing votes for a long time.

"one third of all of his missed votes in 2015 were missed before he announced he was running for president." over the last three years, marco rubio has missed more votes... than any other senator. washington politician marco rubio. doesn't show up for work, but wants a promotion? right to rise usa is responsible for the content of this message. ....

neil: all right. a busy week. another presidential debate. all this week after iraq things up with my fox news show. my first guest tomorrow will be donald trump. we are in charleston. across the board, he leads. pretty much every state in the country. a long nominating process. new york. they could play a crucial role. republican gubernatorial candidate. by the time we get to the new york primary, april, it is not necessarily decided.

do you think that this time could be different? why? >> from montauk to pennsylvania. what we are seeing and the feedback we are getting is so strong. democrats and dependence in addition to the republican file. we are feeling it. especially a wave in long island and upstate new york. i am predicting right now, i will tell you sincerely, i can feel it in my bones. donald trump will take the electorate votes. >> you and i have said it before. thinking about it in the

controversy generates. the polls today. we will think twice about it. maybe his support may be understated. people may be hearing it in the mainstream media. >> neil, i live in south buffalo. working men.

just embrace the outside. the establishment in the republican party. it has brought us nowhere. the people know that. sick and tired. the excuses that are given. lame excuses. really non-says the call. we do not want to step on the federal government. shut it down, the people say. shut it down.

>> you raise some eyebrows. consider running again four governor of new york. you will give it a lot of thought. have you given it more thought? >> i have given it more thought every day. neil: the percentage that you run for governor again. write to that. right now. >> 51%. neil: that is making it likely. >> yes. very likely. neil: what would persuade you from running? >> i am not quite sure. i think it is a little bit early. i have every intention of running for governor of state of new york. neil: thank you very much. running against andrew cuomo. not pulling that well in this state. anything can change. thank god a car that can park

itself can drive itself can do everything but make you breakfast. you know, we will limit where it does this stuff. but, really. i think charles payne got it right. they will never know what it is to learn to drive. looking at my own kids. i think that could be a high percentage. ♪

beam breaking news on cavuto coast-to-coast. some pretty interesting comments just released. saying a couple of things here. number one, we do see more rate increases. talking about china. the selloff that we saw there last week. on the rate increases, we should

point out, he voted for the last rate hike when he was a voting member of the fomc. he seems to have gone off that. this is interesting. there is no predetermined schedule of increases. no map. monetary policy is not on autopilot. more rate increases to come. watch. relax. the other thing that is interesting about china is north korea. he said an extra. i think it is helpful to look at the real economy of the united states. something fundamentally wrong. are there serious and balances. he said i do not see that kind of connection. serious, yes. according to lockhart, we are kind of infiltrated. neil: the market is great. those uncertainties and

imbalances. they had become their own self-fulfilling prophecy. connell: it feels like in the midst of that, see a stabilizing today. even though china went down so much. neil: thank you, connell. this is for the poll. they show in iowa that donald trump has reclaimed the lead over ted cruz who, in all other polls, at least recent ones, has had that stayed handedly. a recent development. i should caution, the positives are off the charts for ted cruz. in other words, he leads on all the issues on character traits and the like. the numbers that we're getting from donald trump. taking a step back and looking at the overall numbers. trump has retaken the lead.

first in the nation. a few weeks away right now. meanwhile, things of concern. the auto show going on in detroit. the big carmakers. flex their latest and greatest. one vehicle maker is not there. it's presence is very well known. jeff flock with the latest. hey, jeff. jeff: you know why they say he is not here. the first, we are talking about elon musk, by the way, tesla. the first affordable long-range. you are looking at the first. that is the chevy full. a range of about 200 miles. $30,000. elon musk, it yesterday, he tried to up this deal where. lee you can summon your car now. it is a self parking car. folks in detroit, say, he just

did that to try to deflect attention from not being the first guy to market the first affordable long-range ev. that is what they think here in detroit. neil: is that the entire size of the car, jeff? i am just curious. jeff: it is a five passenger. i am not saying five neil cavuto's will fit in there. neil: all right. jeff: one and a half charles haynes, maybe. five regular people. >> do not try. the doors are locked. neil: all right. what a wonderful guy. seeing him with attitude. i admire that. you heard that el chapo is back

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neil: all right. the powerball lottery is up to $1.3 billion. celebrities, athletes, billionaires, i don't know of billionaires are trying out for it, but why not. connell: at 1.4 now. it went up. we will do the rest of the show while you run out and get us a bunch of tickets. i have no interest in it. neil: i would be out of town. connell: i was just telling some of my producers not to go into

an office pool. anyway. powerball $1.4 billion. all of these celebrities getting involved. kim kardashian took to twitter with her $39 million. she said who got powerball tickets. i would assume she got a lot. fifty cent. he had an instagram post that he actually took down. he said he almost won friday. three of the five numbers. we were rooting for him. he had just gone bankrupt last year. we were rooting for him. spending it already. josh groveton. neil says he will be getting his 800 million closest friend the dollar. i guess they are all buying tickets for whatever reason. neil: that is a lot of people.

[laughter] thank you. connell mcshane. one of my favorite guests on the show. an amazing singer. we thought of him. not only because he has played a mob guy, he, himself, is not a mob guy or an evil guy. we thought that it would be perfect to talk about el chapo and sean penn in the rolling stone. >> wonderful however a celebrity can capitalize. neil: they are all capitalists. they really are. in the world of sean penn. it actually kind of helped authorities with the whereabouts. the fact that sean penn did this, rolling stone had these preconditions for the interview, what el chapo wanted in god. weird. >> a friend of mine.

he put me in eight series. leo was blacklisted in the 50s. terrific guy, but he was blacklisted because he was considered a communist. you have to, i knew sean and chris. when they were young. neil: you are not answering my questions the mac sean has gone, he has met with chavez. who knows if it was for a movie. who knows if it was part of some other operation. sometimes, working with the dea. neil: look. it is not like he was condoning the thing. the world dictators. it was interesting. the movie where james franco did where they interviewed, what's

his name -- the north korean. the interview. that will be interesting for me. we make a big deal when someone of the stature is behind bars. we want to extradite him. and drug lord. the bad guy finds a clever way to outsmart authorities. >> 1990. license to kill. the james bond film. in that film a colombian drug lord. i made an escape. we've tried the dea guy. i have been underground, it is a great escape. i met pablo escobar 1991 in brazil. i was doing a film. the northern part of brazil. called amazon. the rain forest. the golddiggers. the pollution.

i am in my house. two gentlemen reach me. that film, licensed license to kill, in europe, was huge. it was a big thing. i wind up needing pablo escobar. neil: i wondered why -- >> i understand. neil: you met with a drug lord. >> he told me that -- [laughter] the line loyalty is more important to me than money. let me give you an idea of my personality. in my housei have built a horse track. we play. he was giving me advice in the film. he said they play this card. they drink. they hear the sound of a horse.

they are very expensive. they will stop in they will look at the gate of the horse. then he told me a story of a disco junkie wanting to buy when he was younger. they would not let him buy it. he felt the exact same thing across the street. identical. did not charge anybody. it was interesting. different group. >> i have done licensing. >> it comes naturally. all of the roller in eastern europe. friend of apparently drug lords as well. stick around. you are watching.

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neil: senator ted cruz being an american citizen. a natural born american citizen. getting the attention of governor terry branstad. now putting himself out there. questioning the creditability in the race. letting the people decide. it comes on the heels of the likes of ram paul and donald trump. a mother in canada at the time. he becomes an american citizen. where it starts in the legal

path back and forth starts. a natural born citizen. all of this may seem like craziness to you. watching it very, very closely. is it just adding one more element? maybe that is what some of the opponents want to see. they? to him. do you want to risk your vote on it? >> every single candidate across the board. we are not going to find the perfect person. i think that the senator's response was very mature. i think it will appeal. you know, every question is fair game. this is the highest office in the nation. i think that there is a difference. in his statement, he sort of coin that.

neil: you think that it is fair game? none of that was an issue. a lot of people knew about a distinction that was made. the power in the canal zone. he was a military brat. he was not germane. he argued that it was u.s. military relation for one of the better terms. senator mccain is among those. this is fair game. it does seem to be a pylon. i am wondering if it is reflected in this recent poll. donald trump out in iowa. a close race. what do you make of that? >> i think you can expect this from the establishment. i think that we all wish that the decorated status was less of an establishment. around washington, d.c. for a long time.

i would not expected to be any different. senator cruz has repeatedly played a great. i am not surprised that all. jumping on board with trying to pylon senator cruz. their job and all the jobs around. the lobbyists. they all want anyone, but crews or trump presidency. that is why the bays in the republican party, the grassroots have been left around boost to candidates. neil: donald trump is the one leading that charge. raising the question. i don't know, carly seo arena, a woman doing it. you are voting in iowa and new hampshire higher. there is a possibility. it is kind of like a sneaky way to split the difference. >> i do not know that voters are going to be examined. some of my questions.

senator cruz being the nominee. i think that they're air supporting senator cruz and donald trump. the kind of voters that are dug in. they picked their to favorites or maybe there's reef a break some of them -- and tired establishment, the antiestablishment mindset is not going anywhere. it will not shift over. it is time the establishment just woke up with that little fact. neil: it is. the pylon is certainly here. thank you. appreciate it. first, i want to get you the latest developments. if you do not mind my starting with this, the plant plan subject. we will get to china second. this seems to be gaining some fire here. this whole issue. whether senator ted cruz can run

for president. what do you think? >> he is running for president. they will judge these. on the basis of which republican represents them and has the rights of use and values. neil: none of this would have mattered. i do think that they just are trying, these votes are raising it from senator mccain to donald trump. where, ted cruz. it could be risky. there could be legal issues. moveon. >> that could be true. all is fair in love and war. neil: do you thing that this has staying power? donald trump leading by just a

couple points. over ted cruz. i do not know how much you'd we are debating this very issue. who do you think is going to earn it? ted cruz? >> i am not a political expert. i do talk to a lot of conservative people. all government people. note to them. none of them have ever raised this issue. a couple of conferences. neil: all right. the arching issues, the president stated the union address. most vulnerable? outline a triumph parade. a year ago an office. >> i do not know that he is the one most vulnerable. perhaps hillary clinton is. america has been in the weakest economic recovery in the

post-world war ii era. i think ultimately, that welcome back and bite democrats in the rear end. labor force participation numbers are not good. we may look pretty good compared to europe. 2% growth by american standards is not something to write home about. neil: thank you very much. i always appreciate it. the final state of the union address. it is now and where it was back in 2009. when he first addressed congress. take a look. >> well while our economy may be weakened out and our confidence shaken, but we are living through difficult and uncertain times. i want every american to know this. we will rebuild. we will recover. the united states of america will emerge stronger than ever

before. neil: he knows what we will be hearing out of the president tomorrow. you heard all the numbers. they may not be great pain jobs. but they are up by almost any measure. a lot better than they were back then. that is what he will remind folks. you want more of that. there is hillary clinton. what do you say? >> what a loaded question that is. i have to say happy new year to you. congratulations on a great job that you and maria did on the last debate. i am sure you will not get out of the park again on thursday. just the best debate process and platforms yet. i am looking forward to it. after the debate, i want you to come. we are celebrating our 30th and 45th anniversary. i have your money chris still waiting for you. [laughter]

neil: careful what you wish for. we are covering this address. the president's address in charleston. we do think one or two of those issues will come up in this debate aired yes, the president has overseen a vast improvement in the economy. the republicans have failed to hit the underlying economy. >> you cannot spend good intentions. while there are some indices that are positive, as some of the earlier asked have already alluded to, it is not so rosy. they really peeled down that onion. they are mounting now in terms of doing really have more disposable income. retail space in this food service space, unseen traffic down. unseen disposal income down.

some of the restaurants and other chains closing restaurants. not building restaurants. the fact of the matter is, all the other calls are up. you want to buy cars. you want to buy, all of these others are up. even the cost of building a restaurant today is up 30-40%. you pale that down. >> i am talking about the small business owner. the franchisee. profit margins erode over the last eight years of obama's term. he is leaving. next year. thank god this is his last stated the union address. a trillion dollar deficit. if it is one, that is a legacy. it is not a real good one. generations to calm. it had a ripple effect into

businesses. specifically, all the other mandates. the regulation and compliance. the restaurant space. it is not going to do it for us. neil: paul, thank you very much. the value is you are a big restaurant. i find that annoying. p well. >> good seeing you. take care. neil: we do have the state of the union address. the big presidential debate. we will get in on all of those issues. developing a number of things. to another point, coming up in that debate. the houses house is taking up a measure that has bipartisan support. more sanctions on north korea. no matter how many sanctions we throw, you just get nuttier. the problem is, he does it with very dangerous weapons.

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neil: you have probably heard about this powerball getting up to $1.4 billion. taxes would be a minimum $400 million. the biggest take on the lottery ever. explain why various governments are still interested. the option is whether you want to take it all out. twenty-nine years. it but if people have cash around that. pay more in taxes. twenty-nine years. roughly, oh, anywhere from 100 million-200 million a year

minus the taxes. you can do better. all right. there you go. 400 million. uncle sam's take on this. also, angela merkel is under wires. price is. particularly, germany, responding to protests in our country. behind a lot of violence. the german leader says our reflection is just a few bad apples. not the whole bunch. not yet imagining things. they do not have the order we would like to have. apparently, the bottom line is that that is the whole world. we have a retired u.s. marine corps commander in chief of the u.s. central command joining us. his take on all of this developments.

talking about anthony. good to have you. >> good to be with you, bill. neil: in order for this to go about this. clearly, she is trying to put down the eight were in our country over all of this. the fact that she is open to letting these refugees in. where is all of this going? >> the problem is, we're dealing with the symptoms and not the problem. the cause of these situations. nato should have done this. germany is suffering a problem. france was attacked. we have hammered again note. article five. really dealing with this. basically, we have a strategy of containment. that is owing to continue to

cause his problem is. we need to stand up to the challenge. >> the state of the union address. orchestrating them. an example of what many of these refugees really are. victims seeking asylum. >> i really do not think that that will play well back here. i sympathize with the refugees and those that are in dire straits. we are not dealing with the problem. there will be more refugees. more potential attacks here. getting the refugees with internal issues. germany, france, elsewhere. you have to go to the root of

the problem. neil: i am wondering whether republicans have a better response. they need more refugees into donald trump's case. more muscle. >> first of all, i do not should take this out on all muslims stuff. many of the muslims in the region have suffered at the hands. many of them in my experience are brought by the tide. they are brought by these problems. this is not an issue of muslims. making sure we do affect refugees. making sure we get them back. solving the problem that they are. i was involved in the operation where we had to deal with the kurds. into the hills after the first golf. the high commissioner for refugees.

creating more refugee camps. more refugees around the world. that is the solution. that is where they are. looking at a democratic president. a credit when it comes to leadership issues. the republican side, democratic side. >> push that to be commander in chief. we have not heard that question. we have all heard the debates going on. something for you in the upcoming debates.

do you understand what it means to be commander in chief? you have to prevent the strategy that they are dealing with. the political objectives. around the world. alliances. sharing the burden to take on these challenges. isis. economic challenges. they may these security issues in many ways. i do not think i have seen anyone yet that really understands that role with commander and chief. >> i believe we do not have a veteran of the bunch. that makes a difference. does that worry you? >> they have been veterans in the second world war. you have someone that is strong on national security. someone that understands this.

an appropriate way. more importantly, those that understand the military. work consumes now. we are limited. we are worried about healing with this. we have our priorities off route up. in terms of what the security issues are and what they need for power as it is appropriately applied. neil: on the short list of barack obama. we reviewed it for office. the senate run. how do you feel about that? retired general. staying out of it. >> i am not interested in politics. i do not know of any short list i am on. i was not interested. i do remember that.

>> you have insights that i did not have. neil: in other words, you are saying no for now. >> not just for now. i am not interested in politics. neil: i will take that as a no. always good seeing you. happy new year. one guy that may be entertaining off of this. michael bloomberg. he ran as a republican. then an independent. three different terms. he did well. an independent run for president of the united states. i heard that as well. it makes me think that it could be tight. ♪

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neil: all right. hillary clinton email problems could be growing and taking a very different direction. catherine herridge right now on an fbi investigation that is turning a little bit more heated. catherine what is the latest? reporter: thank you, neil. fbi investigation into hillary clinton exclusive use of private email as secretary of state has two tracks with one focused on classified material found on personal server and commingling of clinton foundation work and state department business potentially violated public corruption laws. fox news is told fbi agents are talking about possible intersection of clinton foundation, dispensation of state department contracts and whether regular processes were followed according to one of three source who spoke to fox news on condition of anonymity. fox is told that fbi agents will be quote, screaming is prosecution is not pursued because many private previous public corruption cases have been made and success fully prosecuted with much less

evidence than what is apparently ear merging this investigation. with the state department dumb number emails identified on mrs. clinton's account raised 1340. over the weekend she dismissed number of allegation that she direct ad subordinate to send sensitive material to her own account. >> as state department says there was no transmission of any classified information some it is another effort by people looking for something to throw against the wall as you said in the beginning of the program, to see what sticks but there is no there there. reporter: but a recent appeal by the state department to challenge the top secret classification of at least two emails has failed and fox news was first to report, this is now considered a settled matter with experts concluding that there really is here a growing body of evidence. >> the cumulative effect, more and more and more of these messages that turn out to be classified it is going to put

more pressure on prosecutors to make a decision as to what they're going to do because it looks very serious, this many messages. reporter: fox news is also told that someone hundred fbi special agents signed to the investigations were asked to sign new non-disclosure agreements with 50 additional agents on tdy, acronym for temporary duty assignment. this request so sign a new nda that they are handling classified material in the emails, reminder not to leak about the case or simply both, neil. neil: catherine herridge, great reporting. we'll see where it goes. charlie gasparino, has other things to get to but first reaction to this. is it escalating. >> obviously, james comey, fbi director is taking harder look at this. i'm still dubious whether this is hillary clinton's achilles' heel. neil: you think she will survive this. >> yep. unfortunately.

or fortunately. neil: depending on what point of view. other people are paying attention to one michael bloomberg. >> this is the irony here. in a year where republicans dominate statewide offices, where they control congress, where they do have a good chance of beatings hillary clinton not just for this issue but many other issues there is implosion going on on national level in republican party and one possible implosion could be mayor, former new york city mayor mike bloomberg here running. what i do know, bloomberg, nominally republican, generally considered an independent, from what i understand, from my sources among the political operative world he has second poll to engage sentiment. he pays decent amount of money about a possible run. i will say this, in trump, donald trump or ted cruz win the republican nomination there's a growing chance that bloomberg gets in and he will attract significant support from establishment republicans. now establishment republicans,

that is the not biggest voter base within the republican party but it is fairly significant and i'll tell you, i never thought that the uprising in the republican party would come from the establishment but you might see that if there is a trump -- neil: by definition that means he would take away more votes from the republican nominee than the democrat nominee? >> yes. neil: to your point he is liberal. >> particularly on social matters. neil: absolutely. he ended up being independent and liberal by nature in his dna couldn't you make argument he would hurt the democratic nominee? >> i just know many establishment republicans, i have always, i've been told this, take it for what it is worth people smarter than i am at this point, establishment republicans, people follow the establishment line generally comprise 20% of the republican electorate. you take them out, significant numbers of those people are, are, uncomfortable with ted cruz or donald trump, that's an interesting uprising.

it is not from the renegades. not from the outsiders. actually comes from the establishment, basically splintering off. again the irony here is that we have the implosion of the republican party potentially in a year where they have a very good chance of winning everything. neil: have in the past of grabbing defeat from jaws of victory. >> this is more than that. complete dissolution of republican party as a major party. neil: wow. >> if that happens -- neil: thank you very, very much. as he and i were speaking here, oil below 31 bucks a barrel. lowest since 2003, slip-sliding reports it had been in and out of this level, things go weaker still. one brokerage firm with prediction of $20. do i hear 22, 24? after this.

>> i'm jeff flock at the north american international auto show in detroit with this hour, perhaps the most celebrated and at least recognized auto industry ceo in the world, they know him as dr. z, peter zetsche. thanks for joining us. >> thanks for having me. reporter: you have big unveils but i want to ask you about economy. concerns about china dragging it down, concerns about the u.s. stock market. how do you see the economy and world right now. >> china is slowing down growth but it is growing. i don't think china is economy is going down. i'm a absolutely optimistic about the china.

overall we expect 2.9% gdp growth globally with different patterns around the globe but china is certainly stronger part of it. reporter: i suppose you wouldn't introduce four vehicles at this auto show if you had doubts about economy. i look here, a lot of our viewers are mercedes-benz e class drivers. this is the latest e-class, right. >> absolutely. 10th generation. important car for us. we never introduced a e-class with so much new innovation like this car holds. going from basically fully autonomous to connectivity to the concierge service to very efficient engines. really a big step. reporter: you had a great year in terms of sales last year. if we put the numbers up with your german counterparts, you lost out to the folks at bmw but not by much and grew faster than audi or bmw. where do you see the future

going as we look by the way, pretty sexy looking red convertible. >> that's true. now that is the new slc we grew by 30% but main competitors four or 5%. we passedaudi. awfully close to bmw. we see momentum with great products that meet the taste of our customers. reporter: dr. zetsche, thanks for your time. always great for you joining us. jeff flock at north american international auto show. the coverage continues throughout the day, neil. neil: jeff, thank you very much. doctor, goes without saying. as we speak we hope the mercedes chief is right and this will pass. but for the dow, markets it is now. it is now not only in correction phase but bear market phase. ditto the dow transports down 25% from their highs.

we're following close very closely. as they go, the other averages go as well. that means all the major averages are very least in correction territory, 10% or more from their highs. in the case of russell 2000, dow transports, 20 plus percent from their highs. we'll have more after this. these little guys? they represent blood cells. and if you have afib-an irregular heartbeat that may put you at five times greater risk of stroke they can pool together in the heart, forming a clot that can break free and travel upstream to the brain, where it can block blood flow and cause a stroke. but if you have afib that's not caused by a heart valve problem, pradaxa can help stop clots from forming. pradaxa was even proven superior to warfarin at reducing the risk of stroke,

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reporter: in the business brief today we're hammering home a point we've been making, oil and stocks, they are down, correlated. joined at the hip. whether oil started to trade up the stock market did the same. doing the same thing. did it all last week, doing it again today with the lowest level neil pointed out sincere sincere -- 03. transocean is another one to look at because it illustrates the point, down big time. actually hitting all-time low earlier today. overall energy stocks, there are 40 of them in the s&p 500 and every single one down today. that tells you how bad it has been for those types of stocks. couple quick ones to look at,

williams and anadarko percentagewise down a lot, almost 7% each. we'll see if the trend continues. neil is back in a moment.

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president called for bringing here, among them a syrian doctor whose wife and daughter and other family members were killed in bashar al-assad attack. he eventually relocated to detroit and is trying to make a go of things there. the president, special seat in recognition for him. governor pat mccory takes nothing against the good doctor but the north carolina governor says to assume he represents all refugees and dismisses dangers of some of those refugees well he has another thing coming. governor with us right now. good to have you here. >> thanks for having me. neil: you're concerned about all the refugees the president is imposing on you, number of other governors agree but all the state attorneys general says you have no choice. federal law trumps whatever you want to do. you obviously feel otherwise, don't you? >> first of all, i guarranty you that the syrian refugee that is a guest of the president tonight has gotten much more thorough

background check that other syrian refugees coming to our country and state of north carolina right now. that is our concern. all the many of the governors in bipartisan way are very concerned about how can you do a thorough background check for refugees coming from a country in which there is no embassy? and so basically what you're taking is basically the word of these individuals and anyone you can interview and assuming the best. and in these tough times where there are individuals who want to destroy our country and destroy any country associated with the united states, these people are very patient, they're very strategic and they will wait a very long time in order to take action to meet their goals which are not good for our country. neil: you know, governor, tomorrow i will talk to donald trump on this issue. he is taking it to the next level by saying we should go slow on allowing more muslims into the country until we sort all of this out.

how do you feel about that? >> you determine it by country and origin and area they're coming from and my biggest concern coming from those countries in which there's a basically a civil war going on at this point in time and where isis is very, very strong and where it's impossible to do a background check. neil: so, the legal issue back and forth, i don't know if you're a lawyer, i'm not. but i'm told by pretty good lawyers that federal law trumps whatever states are talking about here. your concerns notwithstanding. and that the federal government says refugees are coming, you have to deal. are you saying that you would not, you would not obey that? >> i don't have a choice because i don't have a check point charlie like the berlin wall had where i can block the entrance because the federal government does not tell me when they're coming, where they're going or who they are. the way i get that information is from the non-profits that accept them after they have already arrived and when they bill the state of north carolina

for the services that they have derived. we use federal money to pay for those services but it is only at that point in time we get a list of who these people are. that is not verifying that everyone who comes into our state from the federal government uses these services. so we don't know where the weaknesses and gaps are at this point in time. neil: governor pat mccrory, thanks for taking the time. we appreciate night thank you, neil. neil: we're just learning at a white house press conference josh earnest indeed confirmed this had been rumored, that president obama had a private meeting with presidential candidate bernie sanders. we don't know when the meeting took place. president has met a number of times with hillary clinton post her leaving secretary of state post. first time we heard one-on-one, one that we know off, there might be more with bernie sanders. that raised some eyebrows. more after this. it's a fact. kind of like working from home equals not working. numbers look pretty good, how's it on your end dave? oh, the numbers look so good.

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neil: we're told more signing up from obamacare but is all the data on up and up? gerri willis is exploring numbers. what can you tell us. reporter: this is shocking, neil. obama care administration is boosts numbers saying that you don't have to meet open enrollment deadlines. sure if you get married or have baby or other situations deemed appropriate, you can sign up frankly at anytime. this of course is creating a nightmare for insurers who can not predict who they will be covering and for how long. they complain that some folks are signing up for as little as four months to take care of one health care issue, dropping that coverage as fast as they can. also late friday the irs reporting that 1.4 million households did not correctly report their subsidies from obamacare. they're doing it wrong. my guess is the taxpayer is getting the short end of the

stick here. here is what is going on in the background that has average americans upset. lowest cost silver plan on obamacare, deadline for signing up is january 31st, up 7.5%. average deductible for employer-led coverage up 9%. lots of frustrations out there. neil? neil: gerri, thank you very, very much. attention to corner of wall and broad quickly where we're at session lows. dow down about 10points. we told you about the -- 107 points. transports and russell 2000, they have not only corrected but in bear market territory, more than 20% down from the top levels. still a ways to go to hit the bear market for the dow but we're keeping eye on it. keeping eye on something developing in washington. reports from the white house, president obama had a private meeting with bernie sanders. we don't know exactly when that meeting was. we know a bernie sanders supporters would probably agree it was probably overdue. chris shelton is a big bernie

sanders backer. with this type of attention getting from the president no less, probably belated recognition of that fact, what do you make of that, that meeting, chris? welcome. >> i'm guessing if the meeting took place that the president has finally figured out that bernie has a real good shot at being democratic nominee. neil: yeah, i would imagine given numbers we've seen in eye way and new hampshire, thinking about runaway favorite, hillary clinton, the establishment, who is in the fight of her life and might lose both races, do you think if she did, it is clear sailing for bernie sanders or do you think as hillary clinton's people say, runs into resistance with the demographic kind of groups that are more hillary clinton supporters in the south like south carolina, sec primary states and like? what do you think? >> i think hillary is not going to gave in.

hillary is good politician and understands that she is, regardless anybody has to say, the frontrunner right now and i think she will keep going and bernie sanders won't have smooth sailing as you said. he has a real good spot at becoming nominee. neil: chris one of attacks hillary clinton has taken of late is question the senator's electability. that he might be popular but that he would be, i'm paraphrasing here, sort of george mcgovern type nominee. popular with passionate base but would go on to landslide defeat. how do you answer that? >> if you look at polls done against some of the republican candidates, sanders fairs very well, better than hillary in some of those polls. neil: iowa, new hampshire particularly. there is another tack that i don't know if you believe this, that if party establishment, i know that is always a tricky game, defining it as such, were to see possibility that bernie sanders looks like he might be

nominee, they will draft a joe biden, maybe even al gore, john kerry anyone but sanders, convinced that sanders would lead them to defeat. what would you think if they did that? >> i would think that they ought to take a look at the polls and they ought to do some more polling to figure out whether sanders actually has a shot at winning which i believe he does and lots of his supporters believe he does. actually we believe he has a very good shot at winning. i think the party ought to take a look at it. i think they would be making a very large mistake if they decided to draft somebody just to try to defeat sanders. doesn't make sense. neil: are you surprised, you've been a loyal supporter, for some time, long before he started diving in the polls but are you surprised a lot of friends and colleagues also supported him, surprised he is polling this well and raising still so much money and largely in small increements which makes it all the more remarkable? >> well, if you look at all of

his town hall meetings that he has had in the past, he has drawn thousands and thousands of people. nobody ever thought he would do that. you know, that kind of shows you that first of all it is not only democrats but it is independents also that are showing up as those town hall meetings. if you look at his list of donors, it's about a million 1/2 people that are donating on the average 27 bucks a piece. if you multiply that that is a lot of votes and people that donate vote. neil: you're right about that sound like early financial support barack obama was getting against hillary clinton. we'll watch it closely. chris, thank you for taking the time. >> thank you very much. neil: chris shelton big bernie sanders supporter doing quite well. the market not doing so well. we are down 93 points. a couple markets entered bear market territory. does this continue? more after this. [vet] two yearly physicals down.

martha and mildred are good to go. here's your invoice, ladies. a few stops later, and it looks like big ollie is on the mend.

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neil: as loon as we land in south carolina tonight, everything hits fan. donald trump tomorrow. state of the union tomorrow. there is something called a presidential debate on thursday. trish regan, don't hold me to it but i think fbn has that debate. trish: i will see you there. neil: all right, kiddo. trish: breaking this hour, the philadelphia police department is on the hunt for radical associates of a suspect who confessed to a shooting in the name of islam. welcome, i'm trish regan, welcome to "the intelligence report." a woman stop ad police officer to worn them that the threat to police is not over. anonymous tipster said edward archer who pledged his allegiance to isis and ambushed his police officer in his patrol car was part of a group asking of three others and that the three others are more radical an archer. robert good to see you. in studio for a change.