milwaukee here we are in the beautiful southern city that will define this presidential race, the first debate of the 2016 presidential season and it comes at a time when polls are tightening and look what it developed in iowa, ted cruz has been bleeding throughout the last half-dozen or so polls, donald trump has once again reclaimed the lead in one poll in the crucial first in the nation caucus, join us on the phone to handicapped this race and where he stands. good to have you. >> thank you. neil: were you surprised by these island numbers, it is always a tight race. in a state you said you would like to win new hampshire, different story but this is looking like a different story, it would be tough for you to win in iowa. >> i would like to win iowa. we are working hard.

i am going there in a little while. i will be there a lot and i will try, we are way up in new hampshire, south carolina but i'm trying to win iowa. i have a great relationship with the people and as you know about two weeks ago cnn came out with a poll, 33-20 up so i am doing great with the evangelicals, great with the tea party and we are doing well in iowa so we are going to try to win it. it would be easy for me to say i could do fairly well and then we go to new hampshire where i have a very big lead. i don't want to do that. we have a good chance to win iowa. neil: do you think the recent closer poll numbers for ted cruz to the concern is he an american citizen, natural born citizen, you raise it, john mccain raised it, some other opponents raise it, rand paul among some, what do you think is going on and is

that legitimate issue? >> is a very legitimate issue. even the governor of iowa, a highly respected governor, brought it up. a lot of people are bringing it up. is a real problem. unconstitutional expert feels something is totally and settle. the problem you have is if you have him as your candidate andy is a friend of mine, i like him a lot but if you have him as a candidate and you don't know whether or not he is going to be allowed to run or just surf. how can you be voting that way? i suggested he get a declaratory judgment from the courts, you go in the week and get a declaratory judgment. this is an issue that is not a settled issue at all. it is a big problem. neil: why now? i am curious, why now has this become an issue? you seem to get along very well as you campaign for about a long arduous process and a lot of you

are saying why now? >> i didn't bring it up. it was brought up by the washington post. they asked me a question, one of many and this is one question, i said i have no idea. was born in canada. he was not born in this land and a lot of people think it means you need to be born in the land, you have to be born here. that is one of the big interpretations. that was always what i felt years ago when i would hear about this. i felt you had to be born on low land this you can't be born in canada and ted was a citizen of canada and gave up citizenship 15, 16 months ago. the whole thing -- he was the canadian citizen. he gave that up probably 14, 15 months ago. the problem is you have a cloud over his head and that is a big problem because i don't know how you solve it a bit and going to court and getting a declaratory

judgment. i don't see how you can solve it because you know democrats have always announce they will bring a lawsuit. neil: let me ask about the upcoming debate. rand paul has indicated because he is on the first debate, the opening debate before the major one that you will be on that he is not coming, he is keeping the debate all together. what do you think of that. >> he is the united states senator favored to win. a lot of people thought he could conceivably win. i can understand why he wouldn't want to do it. it is a tough thing to do. he is on the main stage and now he is put on a lower stage and sitting senators, respected person and i can understand why he wouldn't want to go to the second stage. neil: do you think it is a mistake could he is robbed of an opportunity to a substantial -- >> i don't think it matters.

he should go back and run for senator of kentucky and do a good job as a senator. won't many difference but i can understand why he wouldn't want to go on the second stage. neil: president obama was doing an interview with matt lauer on nbc and your name came up and the president criticized you that you can't have its campaign quoting him on simplistic solutions and skied going. you went on to say when discussing possibility of a trump presidency i can't imagine it in a saturday night live skit. >> he is being a wise guy. i am very critical of him and he has been a terrible precedent. he has done a terrible job. the world has blown up around us, we created havoc all over the middle east and elsewhere, doing very poorly in our country. our economy is terrible, jobs have been taken away, the real

jobs, not the crummy jobs the report all the time. third rate jobs, part-time jobs. the country is just not the same. he obviously is not exactly thrilled with what i say about him and that is the answer. if you look at what is going on with so many different things, the illegal immigration boring through, obamacare is a disaster. it has got to be repealed and replaced. can't be exactly thrilled with what i am saying but i speak the truth and that is why i am leading in the polls. neil: i know you carry on and try to ignore these critics, to some of these attacks, but when the president dismisses you or mocks you, the establishment media, many waiting for you to close thinking you landed has been half a year you have not. do you ever feel like rodney dangerfield? you don't get your respect? you don't get your do?

>> no. when i look at the polls i have a pole at 42%, leading by many, double, triple, beating these people. you have to look at that, the response, when i go out to speak ahead 20,000 people, 35,000 people in mobile, alabama. i have the biggest crowds, far bigger than bernie sanders. the second in all fairness to my republican opponents but far bigger than bernie sanders. i think that is respect. i understand the president would do that and i do the same thing, would probably talk that way exactly but he can't be thrilled with me and frankly the country is the mess and we are going to string out and make america great again. that is my theme, make america great again. you know who had that bigger than i do? ronald reagan. he was totally scoffed at. what does he know?

he became a great president. i built a great company. a really great company. i have had tremendous success with the apprentice, wrote in the art of the deal and many tremendous best sellers. i have had a very good time but and opponent is always going to say i get it from the republicans too. they say thing as a nation neil: they will have guns blazing thursday night where i stand. are you prepared for that? everyone focusing on your 45% tiar on china. >> i am saying we have to take a tough chants in china. i don't know where the 45% came from. i said that is the equivalent of what they have done with respect to devaluations but china has to pay a price if they don't start beating because they're killing us on trade. neil: you would not respond in

kind? some of your opponents said that would be akin to a trade war and we will all lose in that event. you say with? >> we are losing $500 billion with china on a daily basis, losing so much money taking so many jobs and sometimes every once in a while it might not be so bad if you want to know the truth but i wouldn't do that. we need china's health with north korea but china is not doing anything about north korea, we need fairness in trade and china is not treating us fairly, devaluing their currency all the time, not treating us fairly and unless we get smart and strong we won't have a country left. it is not only china. it is other countries also. neil: how do you prepare for thursday? the last fox business debate in milwaukee you held back a little bit, you did not go on the assault. they would throw a few barbs your way and you would throw one back but it was almost like you

were kind of holding back a little bit and waiting to be fired on but not firing right away. i you going to keep that posture? do you expect given your lead and the fact that in a couple holes he reasserted that meeting i was that they are going for you? >> i don't know what they are going to be doing. it will be like the last debate. you have to understand some people say why don't you fire here or there? i want every single poll on the debate, dredge is an amazing guy, time magazine, slade, pbs, every single poll is won the debate? i won. it is not my job to go and interrupt everybody. i hate when i see certain people interrupting constantly just constantly. all i can do and what i would like to do and i did that the reagan debate at the reagan library and was criticized, i sat back and waited for the

questions. they hit me so many questions the first two hours. the third hour they didn't give me many questions because it got resistance -- ridiculous. the third hour everyone said he didn't speak up. they didn't ask me questions. they were not asking questions. i feel i should respond to questions which i shouldn't necessarily -- we have a couple people on stage constantly interrupting everybody and just butting in and i can do that better than anybody but i don't think it is appropriate. neil: who were those people? >> i have become so diplomatic and won't mention their names. you would know who they are. every question their budding in and cutting in and i feel i shouldn't do that but when i don't do that they say like you just said you were very quiet in the debate, i might have been quiet but everybody said i won. i hit jeb bush because he hit me, i took him out. you have to do what you got to do. i am not going to be attacking

anybody that i know but if they attack me i will attack and back times 5. neil: we look forward to seeing you in a couple days. thank you for stopping by. donald trump, leader of the pact, in one poll leading in iowa where he was facing a struggle vs. ted cruz at least in one very prominent poll, a leader in that state and say what you will of all the doubters who said that bubble has got to burst, six months plus and it is not bursting, it is growing. the reaction to donald trump and what he means to this race, what he means to this city, what he means to this first debate as we kick off the 2016 campaign year. you are watching fox business.

>> ronald reagan was totally scoffed at. what does he know? he became a great president. i built a great company, a really great company. i have had tremendous success with the apprentice. i have written the part of the deal and many other tremendous best sellers. i have had a very good time of life. neil: donald trump comparing himself to ronald reagan, the same dowers who discounted his candidacy. true to that point week before the general election in 1980 the polls were fairly tight, close to even so that does raise the possibility there were a lot more reagan supporters at the time admitting they reagan's supporters could the same

applied to donald trump. that is impressive as his poll numbers are they might be understating his popularity. there are a lot of people who wouldn't admit to supporting donald trump just as there were many in 1980 who wouldn't admit to supporting ronald reagan who as you know went on to win a landslide election and after that a landslide reelection. charlie gasparino, ron kristy, special assistant. to you first on the reagan comparison, keeping the two gentlemen's personality out of it, the underestimated view that isn't reflected in poll numbers. what do you make of that? >> good afternoon. look at ronald reagan, two term governor in my home state of california at a political track record he could run on. while it was a very close election in 1980 and he made over the finish line somehow to weekly donald trump the businessman with a former and successful two term governor. neil: it wasn't close in the

end. what trump is saying is it was bigger than anyone thought. a lot of things turned i grant you but makes you wonder about the people who said they would never support him who might be supporting him just like there were people who said they would never support ronald reagan and ultimately did. is there truth to that? >> his popularity is real. his numbers have held up for several months, people fought from would have faded that this was somehow flash in the pan phenomena and. and a lot of people come out for him and his numbers could grow and strengthen in popularity rather than decline in the short term. neil: i would imagine, charlie gasparino, that is what worries the other candidates, that this isn't a fluke. what is going on with donald trump is a passing fad. charles: the donor class who i talk to a lot are up in arms, no doubt about that, talking about

potential bloomberg in getting in, having a split, non establishment vote between donald trump and ted cruz that have the establishment guy sneaking in in a 3-way race that materializes after new hampshire at some point, whether it is chris christie or the leader as you know is marco rubio, that is what they're talking about but one thing about donald. i agree with a lot of what he says, comparisons with ronald reagan all the ronald reagan was a fence -- governor. wasn't totally an outsider in the republican party. the rubber meets the road with donald if he spends money. i want to see the money he spends on this and that he touted $100 million at some point. does he spend that type of money and that is how we will know if he is serious about this. if he spends the money, he has shown no desire to spend money up until now. none. neil: probably figures he has needed to but that could change.

i want to thank you both. real quickly the dow just turned negative, oil in and out of $30 a barrel. of 14 year of low, throughout this week before the new year concerns that the global economy is not following suit and it could get to $20 a barrel and this report, a third of all oil companies could be driven out of business as a result. every time i see developments like that i wonder where the investigations are, the cup all to look after their own companies and all those layoffs now that they are facing hard times, where are those investigations? they only happen when prices go up, not when prices go down. we continue reporting from charleston, the scene of the first presidential debate of this young new year, more after this.

at ally bank no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like ordering wine equals pretending to know wine. pinot noir, which means peanut of the night.

at ally bank, no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like working from home equals not working. numbers look pretty good, how's it on your end dave? oh, the numbers look so good. dave, dave's on it.

neil: i love when i have a chance to do this. the power ball jackpot has just hit $1.5 billion. i am not kidding. $1.5 billion. imagine if one person wins that. there are a variety of ways to set it up. you are going to lose a lot of you take a onetime payment, $930 million. do what you want, it is not over. estimates are it could climb as high as a one$.7 billion, some are saying $2 billion when all is said and done. i didn't want to share this with the crew but i bought a ticket for everybody and a promise to buy wind we will share it. i will be so much a puff of smoke and won't give these guys a backward glance. can you imagine that? would you going to do? did you get it? you did really? $1.5 billion, uncle sam gets at a minimum half a billion

dollars. the gdp of a lot of counries. bob casey joins us now. i assume you have already got your heart all jackpot ticket, maybe maybe not. what do you think? >> it is getting bigger. i look at that and realize a huge chunk of that, half a billion dollars is not too shabby. you do okay with these power ball tickets but leaving that aside markets not doing as well today. we have oil, up one to get some new stories at the moment, the fact that oil continues to decline and the third of all oil companies could go out of business, tens of thousands could lose their jobs on top of the 140,000 oil services who already have. is this a crisis. >> is something we have to

monitor and focus on but right now we are seeing a lot of the underlying strength of the economy, pretty strong, the overall job increase since the end of the recession, a good number, at the december jobs report. i don't think there's enough data to give you an analysis on this recent news on oil but the fundamentals of the economy right now are fairly strong but we have a major challenge when it comes to lack of wage growth which is both a recent problem and a problem that goes back decades. neil: follow president, an interview with matt lauer on nbc in mentioned there was no essential for it to the united states obviously referring to terror i guess enchiladas people raise their eyebrows and said you got to be kidding me. what do you think of that?

change we got a horrific reminder the other day, when you see someone, an american city, shooting a police officer in his police cruiser at point blank range and connecting that to isis whether or not they contacted him or if he is directly linked it doesn't matter. he is making the connection. this problem is substantial. is the newer and more significant problems than we had a couple years ago. neil: do you think he appreciates the gravity of that? i only say that because we just had these ten deaths in istanbul today, suicide bomber attack, isis inspired, to sort of dismiss it, let some people believe and despite the president's poll numbers, 42%,

43% approval whether americans feel safe or on top of the terrorism issue, 72% of americans do not feel safe, 72% of americans do not think he is on top of this. do you agree with that 72%? >> i think he is, he appreciates the threat but he and his team have to do a better job communicating what is happening if not on that daily basis certainly on a much more regular engagement so that people know what actions are being taken and those happen at a very local level. police forces around the country, and local law-enforcement plays a bigger role on sundays as the fbi but making sure we are doing everything possible to work together to combat the threat. he understands it but often there is not enough communication about what we're doing and why we are doing and

whether we having success or not but this incident in philadelphia was the real wake-up call for a lot of people followed by a couple weeks earlier and arrest of a 19-year-old in harrisburg who didn't seem to be ready to attack but was ready to facilitate connections to isis and connections to terror. neil: quite right on all counts. thank you for taking the time. a reminder to you we are covering the state of the union address in charleston, south carolina, the site of another fox business presidential debate, this will go beyond business issues to life and death issues, isis, the ongoing volatile markets, you name it, it is all fair game, coverage will begin at 8:00 p.m. eastern time up to the president's address, the republican response will be here, right through a 11:00 and later if need be,

because a lot of these guys figure if we win the power ball we might as well just have one final day of work, stick around, you are watching fox business. and those other candidates have to register. >> there has been a lot of distraction, a lot of noise in this election. when we talk to these candidates we cut through that belize. neil: the credo is going to be you want to lift everybody, how are you going to do that? >> more than business, this is about our value system, how we

want to live for the next four to eight years. this debate is the kickoff to an incredibly important election. >> watch the debate starting at 6:00 on fox business network or cats live stream on foxbusiness.com. a dry mouth can be a common side effect. that's why there's biotene. it comes in oral rinse, spray or gel so there's moisturizing relief for everyone. biotene, for people who suffer from dry mouth. marcoto criticize him fornfair missing votes.

"but i am going to miss votes, i'm running for president." but he's been missing votes for a long time. "one third of all of his missed votes in 2015 were missed before he announced he was running for president." over the last three years, marco rubio has missed more votes... than any other senator. washington politician marco rubio. doesn't show up for work, but wants a promotion? right to rise usa is responsible for the content of this message.

neil: will slide away, a lot of people were scoffing and now

they say $20, who knows? it is so bad, they worry about a lot of companies and a water jobs going under, jeff flock with the latest on that. >> almost a surprise it has taken this long. looking at the last trade, approaching lows of the session, putting up the injured they chart, we got as low as 40-10 and less straight 30-14 a moment ago on the board. oil opened a little higher today, got 32, over $32 bet back south again. three significant banks saying oil will get into the 20s in short order, morgan stanley, citigroup, all say we could get into the 20s, standard chartered came out and said oil could get around $10 a barrel. a third of u.s. oil and gas producers could be in bankruptcy by mid 2017. already 30 smaller producers

boeing as much as $13 billion are already in bankruptcy. they oppose that to a host of banks and hedge funds and others, the impact is getting out there according to one more source north american producers are losing $2 billion current prices. neil: jeff flock, thank you very much. connell mcshane chronicling whether china that had anything to do with that, the world's fastest-growing economy grows to a crawl, not surprising, affects demand for oil. they were not ready for anything like this. connell: donald trump had interesting things to say when you interviewed him and so did jpmorgan's ceo jamie dimon when he was on with mary neil: said about shine and the issues they going through his comments, long term, years down the line but here and now was a little different for a lot of

people including jamie dimon. he describes the difficult transition the chinese are trying to make. >> china had uninterrupted growth for 20 years, 10% like clockwork and as it goes through a transformation to a market-driven economy reducing corruption it is going to be more turbulent and china will not only be slow growth but more volatility, making people nervous. connell: but long term if you look at the way he phrases that he is bullish, talking about the long-term likely outcome for china, 20 or 30 years down the line china likely to have 30% global fortune 2,000s, big companies would be there and a lot of gross to go but near-term could be rocky. a lot of people think that. neil: connell mcshane. now, in charleston, south carolina, true to form i have been a frequent visitor here but he is right, a beautiful city

and the wonderful venue for presidential debate, not so wonderful time economically. >> it sounds like golfing is going on. neil: the president using this, bragging rights to say things picked up considerable steam doing well when the market could be imploding. what do you think? >> according to them he is going to give an optimistic view how great america is for the moment when two thirds of americans believe the country is in decline. over 68% believe, 68% headed in the wrong direction and when terror concerns are at their peak the numbers about overseas terrorism, domestic terrorism and what have you. neil: we are getting word, this is from a former obama deputy director that isis gained affiliate's faster than al qaeda

ever did. the president in an interview with matt lauer nbc said we think no existence will fred, what is he talking about? >> what ever, he was smoking as you wander around the white house with matt lauer. the problem is we know they are working on chemical weapons. they have been ahead of the curve on this a you have to think that they are planning to make themselves and existential problem. overwhelmingly, i heard you say earlier this morning, 70% believe we are in line with of problem, this goes against the sand what i don't understand is i understand his passion about gun control but the problem as we saw from polls a week ago when he did his thing when most americans agree with what he is proposing, two things stood out. one that they didn't think it was going to work by overwhelming majority and have no effect, the second was they

didn't want to take executive action. meanwhile he is say i am king, i will do all of this, and an empty chair with him which is probably the low point of the state of the union never because we could have -- i would like to see a chair for all the christians who have been murdered and other muslims by isis and so forth. all the things, he picked a capillary issue to stake in democratic party on. and they don't believe is critical. neil: very well said. referring to the president's intent to use it as a metaphor, we will see that tonight, covering that live tonight from charleston, south carolina beginning at 8:00 p.m. on fox business with the president's address. nike haley and our own analysis as we continue to get ready for the big debate, the first big presidential debate of the new year on fox business, where we

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neil: whereas all this going? >> the problem is we are dealing with the sins and not the problem. the problem is isis and syriac, the root cause of the refugee situation. neil: that was former central command responding to the latest isis threat, refugees, he thinks it is the bad element, we will split through and he wasn't judging, the president will showcase during the state of the union address tonight, a syrian doctor whose wife and daughter and other family members were killed in an attack, a legitimate seeker of asylum but many others are slipping through who are not and that is the kind of thing that worries kansas governor sam brownback who just

said that he is not welcoming refugees that are being urged on his stage. always good to have you, thanks for joining us. the law says, we hear from attorneys general in some of the states, republican or democrat, said will triumphs, a federal law says you must take these refugees, a couple of governors, realize that was the case, they are not happy about it, not you, why not? >> this is going to fail. it is objecting americans to security risks, the president is failing to act, one of our primary tasks is to do what we can to provide for the security of our people and you saw last week you had two refugees resettle this country in iraq and syria that were charged with

terrorist charges, federal terrorist charges, and fighting and pushing back and importing the disaster with taxpayer money. neil: angela merkel leading this, as possible. and over the new year's weekend and high crime, and the german people going to against, way over -- stepped it. and that is just a fraction, more like this good doctor in the audience tonight, what wins out? >> security concern ultimately wins out and i am not opposed to taking refugees, i express the

administration that we take more refugees from other parts of the world, i won't take refugees that have a potential likelihood of killing us. that is ridiculous and the security concerns ultimately went out and as we want to solve the humanitarian issue we should have an aggressive effort to remove isis from iraq and syria so people could go back to homes where they came from. neil: a number of prominent republicans in that group, they make up the possibility of donald trump winning the nomination, they could support it, if donald trump does in fact win the republican nomination would you support him? >> i will support the republican nominee. we need to win this election cycle and there is a lot of fear and concern across the country for the direction the federal government has taken.

that is what donald trump is tapping into and people are frustrated that the current crop of people in elected offices of not stopped the bleeding for the country. i think that is the trump phenomena in. i think we ought to pay attention to it. neil: thank you for joining us, kansas governor, we have of former virginia governor joining us with what he makes of hillary clinton's latest plan to tax the cougarrich, the $5 million and up crowd, with medicare and related taxes, pushing the top rate on federal level for the first time, over 50% come as high as it was during mcartor years after this. increased battery life - needed for everything from electric

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>> i want to go further into impose what i call a fair share surcharge on multimillionaire's, because right now we are behind and we need to get the wealthy and the corporations to pay more of their fair share so i can keep my promise which is i will not raise taxes on the middle class. neil: i wonder what fair share is for the wealthy. when they were brought to the top traded 39.6% apparently it was not, and paid for the affordable care act they were facing surcharges on medicare and sell a home and a big chunk the give to the government to pay for that so it brought into the mid 46% which is the federal

take and the $5 million and overcrowded and another 4% surtax, that would go along way toward rectifying this huge chasm. governor george allen joins us. we can get into class warfare left and right. all notice on this so we have chatted about it, a great deal of creativity when it comes to getting more money from washington. i don't care where you are on the income train but not nearly, finding ways of cutting back on that money. >> the best way to raise revenue for the government, raising taxes the way the french did or the way we had in the days of malaise under jimmy carter are prime examples of how not to do

it. best example is 30 years ago. ronald reagan did tax reform with demographic control of congress and that ushered in two decades of prosperity and hillary clinton said we are behind. we are behind in the corporate tax rate in the united states is the worst in the world and i think we ought to be average around 25% to allow american manufacturers and businesses to compete internationally. america ought to have a government on this side of the entrepreneurs and the people who live in places where they are states or countries with competitively lower taxes, reasonable regulations, affordable energy, places where there is growth and prosperity. neil: i think these are gotcha games, both parties plant in hillary clinton's case is going to be find me a republican candidate who will defend the 5 million and overcrowding keeping

their taxes where they are and she hopes for that debate. how would you -- republican candidates gathering in this city, a presidential debate on fox business which if you don't get you should demand. how they respond to that, they are protectors of the rich and the grey poupon said? >> a proponent of american working men and women who want better jobs. that would be proponents of mate in america for manufacturing and look at ways to give everyone's opportunities. if we reform the tax code in the way it was analyzed by the national association of manufacturers, not lonely would the government get billions and billions of dollars but there would be 6.5 billion new jobs created in america in the next ten years, those are jobs for our children and for us. if you want to cheer turbocharge our economy get rid of this tax

of businesses, trillion dollars overseas, get that money back in the united states. there are positive ways people could be motivated rather than this class warfare political dimension. countries raise taxes, the fringe. this and fringe folks moved to belgium and london, did this in new york and maryland. neil: there is of long history. >> the american people are smart and they will go for exasperation ideas. neil: thank you very much. just to remind folks the power ball is up to $1.5 million with jtb, power ball inert this will apply to you. if you put in a savings account you will generate over $10 million in interest which subject you to this hillary clinton surtax so i don't care where you stand if you win the power ball, you are not done with taxes. simply put in a savings account

and hillary clinton becomes president you will pay those surtaxes so enjoy your new found fortune. more after this.

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neil: all right. coming to you from beautiful charleston, south carolina. do not even get me started on my hotel room. i digress. i am neil cavuto. we will have the first presidential debate of the new year. responding to the president's union. covered live from here. a pm eastern time. the president's address. we are going to sort of focus on some of the issues. it cannot believe the success he continues to have. including one in iowa.

ted cruz leading in that state. what is undeniable is this. people hoping and thinking that donald trump would stay. that has not happened. we have a lot more on that and how some candidates are planning how to respond to mister trump. a strategy to make sure that donald trump is not the nominee. a very volatile market. no doubt will be a theme in this debate as well. connell: it certainly will be. the markets are kind of interesting to watch. oil and stocks are joined at the hip. we continue to see that. it is worth talking about. it is not always like this to that extent. this correlation rate. at least 15 months.

hooked up like this. what does that mean. that is the question. it could mean that the normal economic story, we are looking at that. we just do not see a catalyst. a catalyst that would drive the oil price higher anytime soon. this correlation remains in effect and it is not good for stocks. we know it is not good for companies in the oil industry. a lot of people buzzing about that. predicting it toward. rather dire, of course. neil: connell mcshane. we have, too, was point, talking about these oil industries. if we had that many autoworkers,

that many in almost any other industry pushed out of a job, everyone would be on it like you know what. it does not get a peep out of washington. declining prices and the oil companies. whether you like oil companies or not, the hundreds of thousands of jobs potentially lost in that deal any less meaningful than those in any other field? i throw that out there. big in this arena. oil prices are collecting like they are. i guess that is a classic case of media vibes. neil, thank you.

talking about this. we are in a rebalancing situation. at the hands of primary saudi arabia. deciding last thanksgiving, it a year ago, 24 team, 1.8 million barrels of new oil on the market. to try to round out our success as shall players in the u.s. they have been attempting to do that. it has an effect. we are down the lowest since 1999. we have lost a quarter million people. about three times that many indirect jobs. that is be affected is having. long-term, we will survive this industry. we have the export ban lifted.

basically, making a market of choice here in the u.s. we have a tremendous industry ahead of us. a tremendous opportunity for growth. you double production in the past. >> not if they keep doing what they are doing. the saudis were orchestrating this. they must be recognized. is there a feeling, they could survive this. they could hurt guys like you and other big u.s. oil and energy interests. they can kill off the proctor's here in the united states. they can come out of this on top. this is their strategy. >> it is their strategy. this is a huge mistake. a gigantic mistake on their part. it will not work this time.

thankfully, we have too much resource. we did not have that in the past. we do now. we are able to do that. trying to support a country. it is supporting companies. they have long-term money. it is not due. it is not coming due for a wild. we will be here. they will not. they will be here, but it will be at a reduced emphasis and impact in the future. neil: i am sorry, maybe the saudis are not your problem, u.s. politicians are. thousands of layoffs. i do not see one front-page headline -- what this means to the energy viability of the united states. i think that there is a

difference. we are seeing that difference now. lifting the ban. we probably could not have done that. maybe there is better. >> i hear you. you are quite right. you are getting quite a lot of attention. increasingly i hear marco rubio's name being mentioned. have you committed to him. we are listening to all of them. we have some wonderful candidates. we have some great candidates out there. we have not committed to any camp yet.

they need the money now to keep going. i did not commit early last time. as you recall. we will certainly, for all candidates, on both sides, republican and democrats, reveal it as needed. i will let you be the best for this country. we intend to do that. you know, we have that presidential advisory commission in place. >> sure. >> we will get that. neil: donald trump ending up being the republican nominee. are you okay with that? >> donald is a friend.

a very successful businessman. obviously, there are a lot of people on both sides that like him. he has been ahead in the polls. done a lot of good things. certainly, i will support whatever comes out ahead in this race. neil: when you hear other republicans, i guess, for lack of a better word, promoting fear, what a nomination would be like. you obviously do not share their view. i have certainly been wrong in the past. neil: you are a pretty smart guy when it comes to that.

more damage to the party saying that kind of stuff. >> i do not want to damage. you know. i do not know how far i am with politics. >> all right. spoken like a billionaire. thank you very much. good seeing you. >> thank you. enjoyed being here. >> talk about the guy, the candidates that would just love to have an audience, one-on-one with him. it is very meaningful. wanting to expand his commitment to marco rubio. more to that campaign. there is a story percolating around. support what you have of it. that is where we are. charleston south carolina.

it is a beautiful place. sometimes he would not know it. all right. i am told, it is fantastic. ♪ the only way to get better is to challenge yourself,

and that's what we're doing at xfinity. we are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. and this includes our commitment to being on time.

every time. that's why if we're ever late for an appointment, we'll credit your account $20. it's our promise to you. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. >> the last fox business debate and the walking. you held back a little bit. >> you have to do what you have to do. i will not be attacking anybody i know. neil: all right. get ready. donald trump is ready. he only response to attacks on him. whatever you do, going after him with a flyswatter -- he ends up

surviving all of these debates and doing quite well. they have increased his lead. iowa is a bit of a surprise. it will be the first time ted cruz, at least in recent polling, has seen that lead evaporate. most of them still show ted cruz on top of there. it is a close race. the president, meanwhile, watching all of this. he gets ready for his own state of the union address. he does not think donald trump is a guy, obviously, from some of this. mr. trump addressed some of those in the last hour. when he does address congress today, he wants to talk about how he has helped this economy from the meltdown. he will reveal a regret. he was not better able to unify congress or for that matter,

they american people. i always wondered, when that issue comes up, whether both parties fall. whether it is a sign of the times. maybe just recent history suggests that it is. >> i can assure you. this is my fourth state of the union. congress. either side of the aisle. all he does is work around congress. he has come, in my 10 years here, one time. one time to speak to the u.s. conference on the republican side. all he did was wake a finger at the lecture. the same relationship with the democrats. they build that he had signed a bipartisan fashion.

especially on human trafficking. he does nothing around the u.s. congress. it takes leadership. >> now vying for office. how do you change the way they go about their business? >> it takes dialogue. what is so sad about this president is not only has he unified and made an effort to look out to congress, frankly, he has not done that with the american public. divisions. >> remember, they said that. i remember you said that about bill clinton. there may be gradations of extreme on the part of all these presidents i mentioned.

it seems like the ability to find common ground, even surrender a little bit. it cannot be done. i do not know why, but it cannot be done. >> i certainly have been doing it. whether it is financial services legislation. whatever we are working on. many issues. coming together in a bipartisan effort. and effort to work with it. on either side of the aisle. i do not care what anyone says. dividing america among race, gender, class. he talked on hope and change. the change has taken america in the wrong direction. whether it had to do with national security and defense in the fight on terrorism or whether it had to do with economic security and jobs.

this president is absolutely awol on any of these issues. the american public deserves better. people have lost hope. you know what they are. the lowest since 1977 in terms of participation did people are doing less, more in terms of cost. as a mother of three, what i care about is, frankly, knowing that my children, when they go to a mall or a school or a restaurant, they will be safe. this plan is, you know, nowhere to be seen, to be perfectly honest. strategic -- not a plan to fight terrorism. all right. for now, i will put you down as a maybe on president obama. all right. democrats and republicans.

one of those that has advocated each side here it trying to get things done. very passionate about the things that mean a lot to you. if something never leaves your inbox, you have trouble. after this. ♪

>> the attacks on instant bull. it comes at the same time the president's former deputy cia were after and al qaeda did. senator joe lieberman has been talking about this. vice presidential candidate as well. that is a little bit disturbing, to put it mildly. let's not forget about the

dangers and the real and credible threats that are out there. it is a little unnerving. it is doing a pretty good job developing this pretty nasty network. what do you make of it? >> i agree with him. isis has come on pretty rapidly. the former al qaeda people. reconstituting themselves. they went through a horrific competition with al qaeda. they were capable of being more brutal. beheading people, for instance. a particular piece of ground. the beginning of their caliphate. their country. we are in a global war with these people.

the head of it, now, is isis. they are encouraging people, unfortunately, with some success to strike us right here in the homeland. they threaten every american where we are. celebrating a christmas party in san bernardino. you know the story. we have to take them seriously. >> the white house just released a statement. we stand with turkey. the face of this attack. the cooperation and support in the fight against terrorism. what does that mean? >> we are involved in countering isis. the truth is, we have to take

the fight to where they are. we have to destroy this sovereign entity that they have created. we have to leave. there will be others with us. now in europe, struck by isis directed or isis inspired terrorists themselves. you cannot just sit back and buy some submissions over their territory. we also have to work with people on the ground. that remains sunni arab allies to work with us. that is what we have to do. being more alert here at home. working for us and our allies. the ability to find out what these people are up to before they take action against us. it is an attempt to kill us. neil: senator, powerful words.

we appreciate it. >> i assume that it is warm down there. are you wearing your long underwear? neil: well, that is between just me and you. it is beautiful. >> i have been to charleston. [laughter] grade history. a lot of great places to go. >> i want to talk to you about my hotel, too, when we get a chance. it is always great seeing you. >> look forward to the debate. neil: are right, thank you. the candidates are getting ready. the next couple of days, that is when they come here. see what the debate facilities are looking like here. fox business kicking things off with the first major presidential debate of the new year. charleston and the surrounding

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neil: all right. it will be the president's last

state of the union address and normally our presidents in the that type of venue like to showcase what they got right and what they did right and improvements they made. in the president's case he will talk up the economy. unemployment rate is half what it was. he won't argue over quality of jobs. there are lot more of them when he took over and 17 million people have health care through obamacare. part of litany of accomplishments he will point to but i do not expect him to talk about what is tumble in energy industry and a lot of jobs lost and a talk of a third of oil companies could be going out of business. now the second biggest coal company in this country filing for bankruptcy. gerri willis with more on that. hey, gerri. >> neil that is right. arch coal filing for bankruptcy on monday. this is second biggest coal company. a quarter of the coal industry is in bankruptcy. add its name to the list, walter

energy, alpha energy, patriot coal. i see story of coal in that stock chart. why are they down and down so much. prices have fallen 50% since 2011. why is that? administration mate it is mission to get rid of coal as energy source in this country. favors natural gas, by administrative fiat, industrial policy, call it what you want, basically coal is not popular with the administration. they made rules so hard at epa, now it really can't be used to create energy, electrical energy in this country. now, this particular company has something like $4.5 billion in debt it is trying to reorganize. but real tragedy here, i believe, neil, tens of millions of miners often in areas, parts of the country, rural, isolated, now out of jobs as a result of this industrial policy neil, back to you. neil: gerri willis thank you.

joined by former mississippi governor haley barbour. governor, this issue will come up a great deal, maybe not in the president's remarks tonight, but we might have energy crisis on our hands, not because of higher prices but because of tumbling prices. a lot of jobs are lost, a lot of companies could fold. i wonder if bigger economic threat that people appreciate? >> i think that is the case. energy has driven a lot of growth in the country the last few years but it is bigger than that, neil. look, the president doing an interview with matt lauer today telling how great the economy is. well the american people know better. look, the obama recovery has been one of the weakest recoveries there is. it is weakest since world war ii. that's why the -- 70% of the american people tell pollsters they still think we're in a recession. why do they think we're in recession? because the economic growth has been so slow, 2.2% a year is the

average of the obama recovery compared to 3.3% has been the average of economigrowth in recoveries since world war ii. the then the reagan recovery, the recovery after the last deep recession, 4.5% economic growth after that recession and that recovery. you know in the obama recovery, median household income has gone down. median household income is $1650 a year less than it was when obama became president. by the way, in the reagan recovery, median household income went up $3900 a year. no wonder people still think they're in a recession. neil: well, he's going to come back at republicans saying they're fine ones to complain. unemployment rate is half what it was. i created millions of jobs. you might be right on quality and pay of those jobs. do you want the guys i took over in middle after meltdown?

how should republicans respond to that? lately in couple presidential elections, uncanny knack of grabbing defeat from the jaws of victory? >> the way to come back is tell the truth. the reason obama won't talk about the facts of economy tonight, that the american people know this economy has been very weak and his policies have made it weak. we're sitting here, president obama likes to say, well i have created 12 or 13 million jobs while i was president. well in the reagan recovery, in the same period of time created more than 18 million jobs in a smaller workforce the only reason the unemployment rate has gone down because so many americans dropped out of the workforce. do you know that only 48.7% of the adult americans have a full-time job in the united states today? fewer than half of adult americans have a full-time job? that is another reason that

median family income has gone down so much. it is a reason that 65% of americans think that america is going in the wrong direction. and if president obama wants to be proud of that, well, good for him. if democrats want to run for re-election on that, i will take my chances. neil: well you articulated that very well. unfortunately a lot of presidential candidates on republican side are not doing that. that could change, governor but always a pleasure seeing you, sir. thank you very much. >> thank you, neil. neil: all right. governor haley barbour. what he did in his state, nothing shy of amazing and nothing shy of amazing the buzz and excitement that is palpable in this community as we get ready for our live state of the union coverage tonight from this fine city of charleston, setting up the stage for the first big presidential debate of the new year and we're seeing it on fox business. we have a treat for you this time.

it will not be just relegated to business topics. nothing is wrong with business, we'll mention it but we're also looking at social security and also looking at national security and terror threats and isis here and elsewhere. we'll look at gun control. you name it, if it matters to you, it matters to us. remember with our promise with the debates as last time. it is not about the moderators, it is about the folks we're questioning. this is my challenge to you. i'm a fairly big guy, even though the camera adds eight, nine pounds. i can make myself invisible. watch. more after this. ♪

reporter: time for the fox business brief commoditying from new york studios. we submit to you again our chart of the day, oil and stocks, stocks and oil. there it is. just about exact. they have been sticking together all year. they have been sticking together today. basically what happens, stocks we were drifting higher ahead of the open. you had china intervening in currency markets seems to be helping. then oil starts to sell off, stocks sell off.

simple as that. bp 4,000 job cuts because of tough job environment. that tough environment helps refiners. you might want to look at those as well. valero would be one to watch. it is actually up 1%. tesoro same deal. tso is the ticker. higher by more than 1% those stocks. neil is back in a moment.

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neil: you know they're not saying ted cruz isn't a natural born citizen. they're just raising possibility that it isn't very clear. who does that better than donald trump? take a listen. why now? why now is this becoming an issue? >> problem you have a cloud over ted's head. that's a big problem because i don't know how you solve it other than going to court and getting declaratory judgment i don't see how you can solve it because you know the democrats already announced they will bring a lawsuit. neil: all right. so the issue comes down, is he a natural-born citizen? is ted cruz natural-born citizen, born to american citizen mother in canada which normally bequeaths upon the child delivered you're an american citizen. does that mean you are a natural-born citizen? there again gets to be a semantic battle. what trump is raising, what others raised when they brought this up including senator john mccain and rand paul, there is reason for debate.

is there? former attorney general of these united states, judge alberto gonzales. general is there, is there a debate on this? i'm told there is not by a lot of legal scholars who say he is citizen. end of story. is it that simple? >> you know when you asked me that question i want to become invisible, neil. it's, this is way i look at it. i'm of two minds. on one hand you know, it's clear what the founding fathers put this provision here because they didn't want our commander-in-chief to be a foreigner, wanted someone toking loyal to our constitution and loyal to our country. many legal theorists and constitutional scholars many in academia, who believe in limited constitution, say it is crazy that an american citizen would not be able to qualify to run for president of the united states. on other hand you have to be a natural born citizen, 35 years

of age, resident of this country 14 years. the problem the constitution doesn't define what a natural born citizen is. the courts have not defined it either. in a case in 1898 supreme court said it is up to congress to define what natural born citizen is. congress hasn't done it. they did it in the first naturalization act but that was long time ago. seems to me you could make a argument, just because you're a citizen, just because you're national under laws passed by congress that doesn't make you a neural-born citizen. you could -- natural born citizen. you could make that argument. neil: over my head. no one cared a hoot about this when ted cruz was nowhere in the polls. maybe this is politically driven. i will refuse to be critical and say it's a not. you want to add element of doubt or those states are close or race, republican voters lean between snort cruz and someone else, i like the senator but

there is that legal issue that might come up with democrats who might raise this and challenge this as donald trump was pointing out to me. is that what this is all about? >> who knows what is in the minds of people who are questioning this but there is a legitimate question who would have standing? when would this controversy be ripe? when would a court consider hearing this? they may have to wait -- neil: why wasn't it a big deal when john mccain was running? military base of the united states. go ahead. >> no one made a big deal about it, that's why. now, my recollection is that the senate did pass a resolution by i think one easy way to clear this up, simply have the congress pass a law that makes it clear that if you're a citizen or a national of this country, you are a natural-born citizen under the constitution. neil: okay. we'll see what happens. always good seeing you, judge. thank you very, very much.

>> good to see you. neil: alberto gonzales. you can can imagine this issue which has become a hot button issue in just last week or so as number of candidates are clamoring on to raise points judge gonzalez did i have a feeling it will come up with the debate couple days from now. we'll watch closely. another controversial issue that president will echo in the state of the union address we'll be covering, shutting down gitmo, getting everybody out of there. the president promised it at start of his presidency. we're told he will deliver on it by the end of his presidency. wait a minute, on some of these guys you're letting go, some of them are very, very dangerous. ♪ ♪

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neil: all right the president says he will make good on miss commitment and will outline in the state of the union address about shutting down gitmo. 10 to 15 more inmates due to be released. some are considered quite dangerous. that is in the eye of the beholder. i have a feeling, general john kelly, southcom commander would have something to say about that. general, what the president is saying is that, this was a goal of his from the beginning of his presidency, whether you like it or not that he doesn't think gitmo did any good. strategy to bring them to american courts to finish american justice. but in the latest way we released them to apparently countries that keep an eye on them. does that console you anymore? >> neil, you know, that those of us in uniform execute policy we don't make it.

in this particular case, president wants to close guantanamo bay. we stan by ready to do that. all of these guys are down there to one degree or another have been picked up on the battlefield doing very, very bad things. we have dossiers on them. we can all discuss whether they, eight or 10 or 12 years at gitmo they paid their dues, whatever. at end of the day i'm not even involved or uniform people involved in the detention operations are not involved in evaluation of these individuals whether they should go or not? the only thing we provide, boards that look at them for transfer, what their behavior is, what they're talking about. we stand by to do whatever the president can ultimately work out. neil: yeah, i understand, that is your job, and you do it very nobly. i guess the issue, general, that comes up with americans with heightened sense of security and terror, we saw reminder in turkey, 10 people killed in isis

threat, reminders from former cia assistant director that al qaeda is assembling or isis is assembling networks far faster than al qaeda ever did, at that we've got problems here. i'm just wondering whether this terror issue is underplayed or that we don't appreciate gravity of it? >> it is movement, ideology, neil, as you know, these kind things are very difficult to defeat. neil: right. >> the good news we have the best intelligence people in the world and that includes our fbi out there, not to mention u.s. military out there trying to play away game. law enforcement in our own country doing pretty good job, san bernardino and chattanooga, notwithstanding. i keep a close watch what is going on caribbean and south america. as the expression goes we have to be 100% effective and they only need to get through once. but it is movement and ideology

that seems to be growing. neil: you're right. do you know what the process is, general, i don't want to give away secrets, let's say people return from, sudan comes to mind, do those countries follow up, watch, monitor those released inmates? do we just dump them there, what is the procedure? >> good question, neil. the state department works it out with each country and theoretically each country is supposed to have a plan that satisfies the state department relative to how the detainee will be restricted in the country. some countries very restrictive. saudi arabia, as an example and algeria. other countries, you are uruguay not so restrictive and everything in between. that is the agreement. whatever agreement is worked out between state negotiators and various countries.

we have all i do, my role is, they give me name or names. they give me a country and give me a time frame and i deposit them there. the u.s. military is not in any way involved in negotiation with the agreements are, not even aware what agreements are with these various countries. you know, and it is argument, 15% and 30% returned to fight. i like to think if they return to the fight that is opportunity for us to kill them and i think we probably do but we don't have anything to do with that process. neil: wow, scary stuff. general, thank you very much. always good having you. general kelly. >> thanks, neil. neil: thank you, sir. all right. we got this back and forth with oil, in and out of 13, 14-year lows. impact after this.

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back here in charleston, 8:00 p.m. tonight for president's state of the union address. response of nikki haley and republicans. handicapping how this shakes out for the big republican presidential debate in just a couple days. trish regan helping do honors with that. take you to her now. hey, trish. trish: hey there, neil, thanks very much. welcome to a special edition of "the intelligence report" live from charleston, south carolina, the site of the second fox business gop presidential debate. i am trish regan and we're just seven hours away from president obama's seventh and final state of the union address. the president is expected to heil light his crowning achievements throughout his tenure and pave the way for democratic frontrunner hillary clinton. voters are not quite as optimistic, especially when it comes to the safety and economic security of our nation. in fact a new fox poll shows that 79% the voters say another terror attack is somewhat or very likely to happen on u.s. soil.