>> they towed the boat all through 2015, can they do it again this year? . charles: there you go. and you know who tows the boat this time? connell mcshane. he's in for neil cavuto. >> i don't know what that means but i'm happy to do it. i'm happy to be here as well. neil of course is i'm told busy today getting sent to the event tonight on the fox business network. the debate -- there he is there, getting the session ready. works very quickly, neil. so he and maria working hard to get their stage ready, and they'll be ready for tonight's big did not did it. boy, we have no shortage. over the next two hours, we have great guests, wonderful topics, obviously talk about the debate and we'll talk ashley and charles about the markets. up 200 points on the dow and that's your backdrop heading into tonight. now, i know there are a lot of other topics and we'll get into that too. trump and cruz and we start in charleston, south carolina for the debate because the story of the economy, the weak economy, china, the selloff in

stocks, that's got to be a big part of this as well. how do you think the impact has been on the candidates in the last couple of weeks? >> well, they have to speak to what's going on in the markets, connell, and even with that really strong jobs report last week, you can have the white house saying that the economy looks all hunky-dory but the market is telling a different story. a downturn in the market, correction territory for the s&p and the nasdaq as of yesterday a loss of more than 10% since the recent highs. but look at what's happened in the markets today. the correlation between oil and the stock market is basically the tightest it has been in more than a year. these -- these two asset classes essentially moving in sync with one another. look at the cost of crude today. up the second day in a row and the dow bounces back from a 76 point loss fowler sporting roughly almost a 200-point gain. energy the biggest leader today as the group up 2%. still the biggest loser for the year so far. the biggest loser last year.

so it begs the question what is oil and the selloff there telling us not just about theist but the global economy? how weak is it? are investors looks into these crystal balls and seeing a recession down the road? i can tell you this. how people feel about the economy is not nearly as good as it was just a year ago. 49% of american voters feel optimistic about the economy. that's down from 58% a year ago. 76% continue to rate economic conditions negatively. only fair or poor. so even with the drop in crude oil, drop in gasoline, hey, you can get gas easy under $2 a gallon almost in every state. but, connell, with gas down, why don't people feel better about the economy? >> i guess request -- >> wages? something is going wrong here. >> it; right? don't you think? that's a big part of it is they look at their paychecks, and they're not making more money; right? >> wages haven't been growing,

you saw private sector wages actually slipped in the most recent jobs report. people want more work. you have -- i've encountered a lot of people who are driving uber part-time. driving for uber part-time. that's how they're filling in the income gaps in their families. some people love it, don't get me wrong, it's a great american invention but nonetheless that's how people are struggling. they're turning to that kind of part-time work. >> it does tell you a lot. thank you. >> by the way, just a little correction, connell. you referred to this as a little event. yeah, no. no. in. it's a big event. this is a big deal. it's why they sent all of these people down here. >> after all of these years. all of these years that we work together, you don't pick up on sarcasm? >> what's wrong with you? what's wrong with you? >> we don't have enough time. imagine if we get into what's wrong with you, that would be a different story, dagen live with her people. moving right along. speaking of donald trump of the big event told neil on

this very program about standing up to china they really week. listen. neil: everyone focusing on your 45% idea for china -- >> well, i don't have a 45. i'm just saying that we have to take a tough stance in china because i never said -- i don't even know where the 45% came from. but i said that is the equivalent of what they've done with respect to their devaluation but china has to pay a price if they don't start behaving because they're killing us on trade. >> well, let's bring in trump national spokeswoman katrina. to start with that, funny thing, katrina, he did say that because we looked at the new york times transcript and donald trump himself brought up the 45% number so what's going on with china? >> well, yes, and i'll tell you that if you look at mr. trump's actual china policy paper on his website, the only percentage there is 15% and that's the corporate tax. this was a discussion had at a new york times board talking

about china's administration when it comes to currency and subsidies and if you add up all of that, it would be 45% when you look at this last december how commerce has already added a tariff to solar panels coming out of china because of that very same thing. >> so just to get it straight. jeb bush came out and said this was idiotic but just to get it straight, you stand by the 45% number? so that is the number? that tariff on china? >> no. so what mr. trump is saying to make it equal because he's always talking about fair trade as a free trade person. but because of the currency manipulation on top of the illegal subsidies that's always being discussed with china, it would equal about 45%. >> okay. so that's how you do

connell: give me one more thing, katrina, before i let you go and that's a sense of how you guys see iowa, trump's

side of the quinnipiac poll where he's up a couple of point. >> well, i'll say it again. i'm very confident that mr. trump is going to win iowa. there are so many supporters nowhere iowa that are going to be caucusing for the first time who have already gone through the process and ready. there are disenfranchised democrats that are supporting mr. trump, and we've seen that pretty much across the board even in other states when we look at polls of people for trump simply because of his immigration policy and foreign policy. connell: right? >> some confident mr. trump is going to pull it off. connell: speaking of immigration and just about to talk about this new jeb bush ad, which i don't know if you've seen it. you probably have. going after -- mr. trump as well. any reaction to the new jeb

bush ad, which i'll play for you guys in a second or this nicki haley back and forth really has become a big deal too; right? >> well, and, well, kind of. we'll see that it was very odd that nicki haley wanted to address mr. trump in a state of the union address, so we're still not quite sure, and continue to spend tens of millions of dollars and sink in the poll. the republican party senior done with the bushes. with respect to governor haley, it's interesting because in the state of south carolina, mr. trump has about 40% support in her own state. so the fact that she would take time out of a response that was designed to go against barack obama's policies and some of the blatant lies that he told in the state of the union, she went after the republican frontrunner, someone who is very well respected, has a lot of support in her own state but consulted her own constituents. connell: thank you very much. with the trump campaign. even way i mean obviously there's fighting going on in

the republican party. we all know that. we can see it. a lot of it is broadcasted, as a matter of fact. so we'll talk about that going into the debate and part of it is as reference to this new jeb bush ad. we'll come back and talk about it. here it is. >> just one other thing i've got to get this on of my chest. donald trump is a jerk. >> donald trump facing new criticism for something he did on the campaign trail last night in south carolina. he appeared to mock a reporter with a disability. >> you've got to see this guy. i don't know what i said. i don't remember. connell: so from the rnc communications director sean spicer. he's with us as well from south carolina. it's good to see you, sean. any -- you know, from the party that you're telling me that bush or anybody just tone it down with all of this stuff or what? >> well, i think you've heard myself and cameron talk about the fact that we're big believers in reagan 11th commandment, we would love to see the candidates talk about

their vision their solutions to america's problems and focus their attacks on hillary clinton and the democrats. connell: so much for that; right? >> exactly. but that doesn't mean that we don't try to continue to put them in the right direction i am not speaking of putting people in the right direction, what was the rnc's involvement in the speech that governor haley gave the other night in response to the state of the union? >> nothing. connell: nothing at all? didn't know about it or knew about it and just weren't involved? >> we -- all of the above. we -- the way that state of the union speeches work is that the house and senate republican leadership or democratic leadership depending on who has the white house switches back and forth in choosing the responder, the rnc has no role whatsoever. connell: is it ever that way? because we were talking about it yesterday and a couple of people came on and said, oh, i know behind the scenes they may say they have a role, but they're telling them don't say this or say that. there's nothing ever anything like that with these responses? >> nope.

i mean i saw it. connell: right? >> chairman saw it and the other folks at the rnc when it went on television. connell: so what did you think? >> i think she did a great job. i think she represents this party well. i think she is a proven successful governor, and she speaks to ways in which our party can grow and bring more people into it. and that's a really positive message. i think what she did talk about was that i -- this idea that we as republicans, as conservatives, i think frankly have better ideas on how to run this country from a conservative ideological way that we can reduce the deficit, we can create jobs, we have a better system for health care delivery, and then i think we can do it with a smile on our face and proud of the solutions we have that will move this country forward. connell: i understand that but you said i think a moment ago it's interesting that she represents this party well. now, she went after trump. >> yeah. connell: everybody knows that. >> no. but what she did was that she

said angriest voices shouldn't carry the day. connell: right? >> which is true. i think that we should be talking -- i think that about positive solutions. connell: but that trump and people -- >> and saying -- connell: so that stuff -- >> no. no. connell: trump doesn't represent the party is i guess what i'm getting at. >> no. but that's not what she said. she never referenced him, she never said his name, she talked about how we as republicans can talk about the solutions that we have, and i think that's true. i think that there's a difference. i think that what mr. trump talks about or recognizes rather is that people around this country are mad. they're upset. they are angry that this government is failing them. that it's not giving them the answers, and it keeps kicking the can down the road and so many solutions. and where i think there's common ground is that we have a lot of angry people. and we need positive solutions to tap into that and stay got a better way. connell: fair enough, sean, we've got to run right now, and we appreciate you coming on with us. >> thanks, connell. connell: with the rnc, and

we'll all enjoy tonight. getting ready for these big debates on the fox business network live in charleston. 6:00 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. eastern time. don't miss it. we'll be talking more about it in just a moment. keep it here.

connell: back here with a business alert i'm connell mcshane in for neil today as he's getting ready for the debate in south carolina, in fact, my producer told me that neil is watching from an undisclosed location in south carolina, so i would like to pause and say, hey, neil, how are you? best buy is the stock to watch today. they were going to talk about the debate in a moment. look at best buy. jeez with the market being the story for how much it's up, best buy, nicole petallides has the story for how much it's down. what's going on?

>> i'll say, hi, too to neil and the gang there in south carolina. and looking added best buy, hitting a new low today and people out shopping during the holiday season, well, what you know? it was overwhelming and we see it in best buy, they say they did not do well with mobile phone sales in particular and not the only company to say this type of thing. we heard game stop say it. game stop is it had sales that missed and macy's, for example, which announced closures and layoffs. so while americans are still trying to bounce back in the meantime granted i know we've seen more jobs and the like. there's still very tight with the wallet because they're still very concerned and cautious about the economy. back to you. connell: thank you, nicole. good to see you. back to the politics right now. i mean we know iowa is what? three weeks away and then right after that you have new hampshire and south carolina where the debate is tonight. and if the republicans say kind of split up the early states, a lot of people could tell you it would make for a long and drawn out nomination

process and neil talked about a brokered convention; right? won in south carolina and he'll be watching that state very closely and the debate i'm sure very closely. the former speaker of the house joins us right now from washington. good to see you, mr. speaker. thank you for coming on. >> good to be with you. connell: i want to talk actually about iowa for just a moment and we'll get into iowa. because on my way to work this morning i was reading carl rhodes piece and 19 days before aiowa last time around you were leading. he said you were 26% and santorum was at 26%. you finished fourth, he finished first. and as i said you ended up winning south carolina. but is there anything in that last cycle we learned from this one but or is it completely different? >> well, i think it's very different in the sense that you have trump, somebody who is very well financially, ted cruz is very well financially.

i think marco rubio may have bought more ads in this next three weeks in iowa than any other candidate. so you have a lot of very strong candidates who are competing very, very hard. and i do think that one of the lessons is in a primary or caucus environment, people can change their minds literally overnight. and you can see a dramatic shift of eight or ten or 12 points in 24 or 48 hours. so nothing settled until the voters actually go vote. although you do see trump and cruz looking very, very strong, which makes tonight's debate i think really important. connell: right and there's still some convincing to do from the other candidates. but even from trump's point of view, some people say, well, will these voters that strength he has, will they show up? that seems to be the question in a caucus state like iowa people are asking about trump. what do you say to that? >> i don't think we know yet. we can tell you that a good friend of mine went to the university of northern iowa the other day and over 2,000 people waiting for three

hours. you look at the size of his crowds -- connell: i know. >> you have to say, you know, if you're willing to go out and stand in the cold, one guy went out at 7:00 in the morning for a 7:00 p.m. event, i have a hunch he's going to show up for the caucus. connell: it's like the people at time square on new year's eve, and no one has really seen anything exactly like it. let's go to south carolina and the debate tonight as you say it will be important. anything that you expect going in? or even a story line that you expect to emerge as being important? >> well, i'm going to tweet all through the debate because i'm fascinated with this one. you know, you have this three way fight. you have all of the candidates who are below trump and cruz and there you have four or five people. each of them trying to climb over the other to get to be number -- to get to be in contention. you have cruz who is i think right between trump and everybody else. so one of the questions you've got if you're a kasich or christy or rubio or bush or carson is are you shooting at

each other? are you shooting at cruz? or are you risking taken on trump who has proven again and again if you bunch him, he's going to get a sledgehammer and pound you into the ground. i think most of the candidates now are more inclined to fight cruz than trump. connell: right. we'll see tonight. thank you, mr. speaker. enjoy. and we'll look out for your tweets. former speaker of the house. now, the candidates as we talked about earlier with dagen, the candidates tackling the economy, certainly china has been a big story. the market taking a turn at least for today for the better. as soon as oil went up, stocks followed. we know that trend has been happening for a while. gallery gasparino is live next from south carolina. more on this and more on the debate. keep it here

connell: we have breaking news. campaign news as we come back on cavuto coast to coast, another set back for the carson campaign. now dean parker is the finance chairman for ben carson's presidential campaign.

is stepping down. after falling under scrutiny for his spending and use of campaign funds. campaign finance chairman for carson stepping down. skip to charlie gasparino standing by with a special guest at the debate site. charlie. >> beautiful day for a debate here, connell. and a beautiful day to be with my friend, economic expert steve moore from the heritage foundation. you know, listen. the debate will be about a lot of things tonight. not just going to be about economics but economics will play a major role. a lot of my wall street sources say the turbulence over the past of the weeks is indicative of a recession, not just globally or in china, you follow this stuff all the time, what do you think? >> well, when we had that jobs report that came out last friday, i said on fox business that this is the peek and things are starting to head southward. if you look at all of the indicators since then, what's happened with business investment, what's happening with corporate profits, consumer spending, it's all

headed in the negative -- and, by the way, one other quick thing. we've lost what? 1,300 on the dow. that's equivalent to $2 trillion in loss of wealth. i think there's a fact of that. >> and the labor participation rate, one thing i find interesting and you're more positive than some of my sources -- >> i used to be but i've turned negative. >> these guys are hedge fund guys and not right wing. they look at numbers all the time. >> sure. >> they worry less about the headline unemployment rate and more about the -- >> well, they're right to. >> and they're saying that is indicative of a economy that still is not growing. that will and, you know, a lot of indicators point that, you know, when you have 2% growth, seven-year investments, this thing come next year in election mode could be -- we could have a possible recession. who does that help? who does that hurt? >> well, first of all, you're right. the most important indicator when it comes to jobs is the labor market participation rate. in fact, i would make the case to you, charlie, why do we

even look at the unemployment rate even no mohr? it's not a real statistic. the real unemployment rate is 10%. i used to be optimistic, i'm just seeing so much pessimism right now. >> who do you think it helps, though? >> what? >> who do you think helps? >> look, if we're in this kind of economic rut nine months from now, the republicans are going to win the election. there's no way hillary gets elected in a down market. i don't see it possible. because this election is going to be a bit of a referendum up on obamanomics and the question is who carries the torch for the republicans? >> well, let's get into that. tonight the debate it's going to be -- i think it's going to be an interesting food fight, you know. >> it will. >> now, i look at this as two primaries going on. >> yeah. neil: you have the trump cruz primary for the grassroots vote and then you have the establishment primary between jeb bush, marco rubio, john kasich, christy. >> yeah. >> where do you think that -- how does that shake out? >> so i tell people, look, keep your eye on slots five, six, and seven.

those are the three governors. christy, and bush, and it's kasich. and those are three impressive guys that are nowhere in the polls. >> right. >> and one of them -- i just see one of them as emerging. i can't tell you right now which one it's going to be but they're running out of time. the bush people are running out of time. so i think one of them is going to emerge as a big winner tonight and we know it's going to be rubio and trump, and we know it's going to be cruz, who is going to be the fourth person? because i think you're going to see this field narrow out quickly. but, you know -- >> when will the -- >> six months ago everybody thought the power base and the talent base were the governors, and they just haven't emerged. >> well, yes, they may emerge tonight. >> yes. >> that's why tonight is going to be a big night, i'm going to be glued to my tv screen. >> can somebody knock trump off his pedestria so far no. >> he's also a junkyard dog. >> he's from new york. you see his defensive new york, you know -- it was

just great he said this is the place where we got hit with these attacks and when you attack new york, you're attacking the heroes. >> i've got to wrap up. but one thing i agree with what you're saying is donald trump is the best retail politician out there since reagan. >> yeah. >> thanks. connell: theoretical, steve, thanks, we'll talk to charlie later on, but everybody is looking forward to this big 9:00 p.m. debate tonight with the top seven candidates and neil and maria but what if i were going to tell you that there's going to be a major surprise in the first debate at 6:00? the read on that from charleston right after this at ally bank no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like ordering wine equals pretending to know wine. pinot noir, which means peanut of the night. when a moment turns romantic why pause to take a pill?

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it's a fact. kind of like working from home equals not working. numbers look pretty good, how's it on your end dave? oh, the numbers look so good. dave, dave's on it. connell: hours away from the first of three debates tonight in charleston. looking to get takeout moments. we have seen that now. getting close to the time where votes are cast. sandra smith is one of our moderators, along with trish regan. she joins us now. rand paul will be there. a lot of people will be there. the mac santorum and huckabee and feel reena will be on that stage.

that will be much different. as far as rand paul goes, he was invited here it moving on. it will be an exciting night. i have a list listening to you and your guest. he is busy. we also hello from the headquarters stier in charleston. this is a big moment in history. it will be a huge night for both debates. for all the candidates that step up that stage tonight. connell: newt gingrich was on the stage a few minutes ago. at the very last minute, you had people making decisions in iowa. it is possible that people can make a run late. fairly low turnout.

>> i used chris christie as an example of that. you can use carly as an example of that. the fox news debate. she made a move. a big move that night. focused and target his attacks on clinton. it is anybody's moment. anybody's night. totally outnumbered colleagues. do expect some people to be taking more risks tonight. we are now in the election year. the first debated the year. a couple weeks before the iowa caucuses. it means everything. it will be a big night. connell: no loud voices. no problems for you, sandra.

>> privately, at the office. connell: i will shoot you a text. [laughter] >> trying to stay away from the spinach. connell: thank you neil. >> i will do that. connell: tonight with trish regan. 6:00 p.m. eastern time on the fox business network. 9:00 p.m. with neil cavuto. so important not to get closer to the time. fox business.com. next. 2600 -- 216. sanctions on iran. and a lot of people saying not

without controversy. we will have that next. ♪

connell: business alert on the oil price. that gain is almost 3%. a nice rally in stocks. that is the pattern. some of these energy names beaten up. one and a half percent. nice gains they are. sanctions on iran. despite the backlash. these u.s. navy crews. joining us with the latest on this. >> had hey, connell. just before the president's

state of the union address. just as the u.s. starting to lift sanctions. a hot topic republican candidates. already a hot topic on the campaign trail. >> look how we're bringing america humiliating them. i am going to cancel. >> he stood up there and talked about how proud he was. friends do not take your friends hostage. it is jimmy carter's stuff. believe me. we have it back in the age of jimmy carter. >> even before this navy

industry this week. this has now giving critics of iran more ammunition. the house is house is expected to vote on it by the end of the month. the white house has promised that the president will veto it. connell: you are right. iran does look like it it will be a big story tonight. taunting us now. the latest comments that have come in. the nuclear test that they conducted could wipe out the u.s. what is your response to that kind of talk? >> and my concern, yes, i am. fifteen-20 bombs today. the real challenges this.

they sold a nuclear reactor to syria. we have isis. $400 million in cash. the poor country. number two, i will tell you who is under the gun. south korea and japan. what if they begin to get the nuclear weapons. too many have not focus properly on resolving this issue. 3 peter barnes and i were just talking about iran. at the same time, what should the next president do differently? specifically about north korea. >> i think they have to treat north korea as it is, not as we wish it was. we have to stop having a precondition of talking with china and korea.

a precondition no longer is you have a cup last three to nuclear watch. we have to say three things. no more weapons. no better weapons. no transfer of any nuclear material or technology weathers. and with china. they really be getting antsy. and putting itself. how are you able to be the one that has not properly enforce sanctions. >> giving them some real benefits if they stop where they are. connell: and forcing the sanctions on north korea already. they are already a poor country. >> we have to. it is sort of like when we worked with iran. those sanctions would have

brought them to the table and negotiated all. if china does not start, the sanctions are ready put in place, we do not have a choice, really. it has to be brought to the table. that is where you often have to say we are willing to talk. economic sanctions. it is going to have to be stopped where you are in place. that is the only next step. today's world about someone material. sold. i have done one of my ships tracking one of those container ships. >> obviously. especially with the isis concern. >> connell. that is good. when you say something important, i hope tonight's debate will actually get into

rhetoric and start laying out how you will deal with some of these very tough complex issues there. we need to hear that from somebody that wants to be a leader from our nation. both sides. all parties. connell: be serious. doing a good job last time around. i think you will see that tonight. >> i think that you will have the people asking questions. driving them into policy. tell me now what to do. connell: specifics. guarantee it. thank you. former congressman of pennsylvania. for the down now. up to 27 -ish. 227 exactly. we are seeing a nice rally. more or less any sustainability after that. we do not know. we will talk more about it. more cavuto coast to coast straightahead. ♪

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see car insurance in a whole new light. liberty mutual insurance. connell: back to charleston. jill is getting set for the debate. all about the buzz online. fancy streaming to help her, you know. what is buzzing and what is not. ashley: exactly. we are taking a look at exactly what people are talking about. it is the third most popular topic. who cares about how jobs are going. how job was claims are coming. 3.5 million people. they talk about 9.7 million times. who are they 31% male and 4849%

female. it is certainly a big deal for everyone who has jobs or are looking for one. looking at who is talking about it and where. we want to show you a huge map. it is a conversation all the way from the west coast. senator bernie sanders. he is not part of this debate tonight. i have a feeling we will hear a lot from the candidates. particularly donald trump. the economy and how to create more jobs. what to do about the national debt. all those topics that neil will be watching. one more thing. we are actually going to be on stage. turn the tables on neil cavuto a little bit. during the commercial break. you will want to go to our facebook page. we will do a live broadcast interview. join us for that on our facebook page. ask the tough questions, i

think. we will not shy away. connell: this is on the fox business facebook page. you can have your laptop with you while you watch the debate. you may get a little grumpy. are you at all afraid? >> i think he is pretty excited about it. he will be taking your questions. you can check out my facebook page. we just posted a video. facebook.com / chilling can't. connell: thank you. you will not be annoyed by joe. right now, twitter. speaking of social media. the ninth straight loss. another record low. 1851. has not posted a gain at all this year. today is january 14. getting crushed as well. trying to cut 7% of its workforce. technology stocks.

you have all-time lows for many of them. morgan stanley down. the entire technology sector. it uncovers a lot of these technology issues on a day-to-day basis. >> if you want just the benchmark, the last time it had such a rough start was 2000. that has a lot of people paying attention. you just mentioned go pro. and as you looking at filming the most outrageous stunts. it went public. great class. great applause. it seems like it is too much of a niche bought it. connell: do i write here and then they say now what. what a you going to do now?

>> that is go pro's problem. around the holiday season, they quite frankly did not sell enough. they really will this sport enthusiast community, but then, as you say, now what. there is not much they are there. you mentioned twitter. we have been covering this. pretty much the management crisis. i love twitter. connell: it almost seems, sometimes, like we are talking to each other on it. it is perfect for journalists. they love to hear themselves speak. >> for example, hey. connell: and then you wonder how did they grow that. how do they help to monetize. maybe they're disallowing you were cared errors. >> the problem for twitter now is we are not normal.

a lot of ways for normal people to share what is going on. instagram, snap chat, facebook. there are tons of other products. twitter just can't figure out these next steps. if you look for a silver lining in what is important tomorrow, intel, obviously, much larger reputation. decades in the business. back at change technology sentiment for tomorrow. connell: thank you so much. appreciate it. onto the debate. the attack on ted cruz. we will get into some of the details related to that. you probably know about goldman sachs. cruz versus trump. all of it is coming up ahead of tonight's big fox business debate in charleston. just a moment. ♪ we live in a pick and choose world.

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connell: welcome back to cavuto coast to coast. i am connell mcshane in our studios in new york city. and for neil cavuto. we are all getting ready for the debate. it should be a lot of fun tonight. we have been talking about some of the stories in the news. iran and north korea. the market which is up right now. the dow is higher by almost 200 points. the story earlier is how much it came off the lows. you have two debates. we will hit you over the head with this until you get it. the 6:00 o'clock debate. seven candidates for the primetime debate at 9:00 o'clock with neil and hurry up. that is all here on the fox business network. this is neil supervising this effort. he is just there on the left. getting the stage ready for the debate. before it even begins, let's go

to blake bergman who is in charleston. ted cruz is one of the side stories. blake, on a number of different issues. very interesting to watch. and a lot of people think he is leading the way in iowa. >> this is almost like life as the front runner. rising to the top of the polls. it certainly has been an interesting 24-48 hours for ted cruz. for the first time in this entire election cycle, he is naming donald trump. confronting charles verbally. this all started about 48 hours ago when trump said, crews that, rather, trump embodies new york values. trump was asked about that in an interview that was published by bloomberg politics today. trump invoked 9/11 and the response to new yorkers there.

take a listen. >> the way they handled that attack was one of the most incredible things that anyone has ever seen. you have to go through me. an amazing place with amazing people. >> we will see if ted cruz get asked about that tonight. we will see an entirely new headline. posting a story about a loan, a couple of loans really. a million dollars that ted cruz took out during his senate run. goldman sachs and how cruz did not completely file everything as related to that loan. that has some people questioning and shaking their head really. crews running at the outsider. talking about goldman sachs. as it relates to the filing, he did nothing wrong. >> and added burden filing question. the underlying question has been disclosed for many years.

it is not complicated piii that was cruz last night here in south carolina. have not even mentioned the whole natural born citizen thing. he may, he may get that here tonight. very interesting your interview at noon. a spokesperson from the trump campaign. yes. having an effect. connell: they clearly do. that is why i keep hitting on it. it just came up. somebody asked me about it. they do think it is having an effect. our next guest, meantime, mike huckabee. rick santorum. and i was conservative joins us now. bob vander platts. he joins us now. what do you make of some of the series blake was just going through right now. we bring up the -- what about

the goldman sachs that is out there? >> i think ted cruz's clearly a front runner. you will hear a threat. when you are a front runner people will start attacking you on a variety of issues. they are not attacking him on conservative credentials. how to protect the country. ted cruz is rocksolid on those. that is why you are seeing this around his campaign. he is a front runner, quite frankly. i think ted cruz should be complemented by some of these attacks. connell: you are absolutely right about that in iowa. it was not until he was a point or two ahead of trump or even in the other polls that this issue came up. it was not until then, coincidentally, david finally came up. folks, when she was on last

hour, to blake's point, she did say that we think this is having an effect. whether ted cruz can even be president. do you think it is, in iowa? >> that is a subtle issue. someone who has not only believed we need to take on the institution of washington. someone who is demonstrating that he is willing to do so. >> i think that ted cruz is willing to do so. he does not -- he is happy. i think he will be good if he does fight back. he has to stand his ground. he will be just fine. >> let me ask you one final question. it relates to iowa in general. a lot of the talk will be about iowa. you know the state. you know the voters. however, as you know, there were

winners there, but not overall. does i will even matter? >> well, i would definitely matters. mike huckabee was a better candidate. they have the resources and infrastructure. just not in iowa. well beyond iowa. new hampshire higher, south carolina. it is unprecedented. i think ted cruz will, by what. it will be a tough race for an unchartered territory. i think he can end up being the nominee. connell: writes. maybe does better in south carolina. bob, thank you. enjoy the debate tonight. you know, it could be a big debate tonight for a number of reasons. money reasons. the donors. who do they commit to. do they change to their committed to.

maybe some jump off that fence. maybe jumping off the fence and supporting somebody. who do you think? last time, i think, you were for romney. >> i am looking at a number of candidates. i like ted cruz. i like margo rubio. i like to bush. we have a very good cast of candidates. one cycle has been very difficult to choose from. connell: why? a guy for romney would be for one of the establishment candidates. if you're considering someone might cruz, that means that you think there is something different this time. >> i think that it is incredibly important the cycle we elect a republican. economic values and dueling with the international situation. a number of candidates, i think would make excellent residents.

my only criteria this round, this election is who can win. the most important thing is who can win. ted cruz, there are good arguments that he can win marco rubio. we have candidates that really have great qualities for being president. we need to elect somebody. >> sorry to interrupt. rubio could win. a similar argument on how romney could win. he will win in a way that a traditional republican will win. for cruz, it is a little different. some of the more conventional thinkers will say to you, it is much more different. demographic advantages for the democrats in the way the country is changing.

do you think it is difficult for a guy like cruz. you will get more hispanic votes. donald trump has awakened a sleeping giant. now, 2012. it really was not the hispanic vote. you can take the hispanic vote. he still would have lost. the problem was these blue-collar republican voters did not turn out in the numbers that were needed for the republicans to win. you will only need to move the percentage of non-college-educated white republican voters a few percent. i think that that is what they are trying to do. i'm not discounting his ability

to win this election. the demographics is nowhere near as important as people think. you can kind of adjust the numbers for these different demographics and see how would've affected the election. it is really very different than people think. connell: andy, thank you. maybe someone will convince you tonight that they are a winner. connell: 6:00 p.m. is the first debate. 9:00 p.m. the primetime debate. from charleston to south carolina. the seven candidate that the 9:00 p.m. eastern debate. chipolte has been a huge story in the business world. stories of that stock.

soaring today. 7% gain. all these locations are planned for this year. the e. coli story. kind of hovering over the company. welcoming or good news helping the stock. it will help it today. oil turns around. that has been a story. that is how they were this morning. oil goes up. stocks are up. we have been down a lot. politics. we will go back to charleston south carolina where the big debate will be here tonight. the republican party. will that damage the party long term? we will talk about it next. ♪ this weeks btv spotlight features parnell pharmaceuticals, parn on nasdaq.

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connell: a news alert here on ash carter. related to those u.s. navy seals that were taken in. just came across on a tweet that he said it was a navigation error. it led to those. we will see what if any more fallout there is. these pictures we're showing you now were released yesterday. under what conditions we are not quite sure. we have been talking about the debate tonight in south carolina. it could lead to even more. opposite the republican party. the theme we have been talking about today. calling it a civil war within

the party. will it cause long-term damage to the republican party. it seems like a legitimate question. charles payne is there. taken away, charlie. jeff: charlie: a very good point. no relation to steve moore. how did the food gets so good here? right up there with anything in new york. >> america's heritage. the only unique food in america. charlie: let's get the politics. i would not quite call it a civil war. there is a really spirited exchange going on right now. donald trump has always been going at it with cruz. right now, you have some very bitter infighting.

jeb bush, marco rubio. it cannot be good for the party. the current senator -- we have seen the primaries. leading to a good nominee. democrats in 2008. our party is competing right now. for the future of the country. hillary clinton has been hiding. who watches that stuff? >> the republican party across the country. i am excited. people are excited. it is a great hang. okay. fundraisers. particularly the establishment. somebody maxi have to leave. we need one guy to go against a nonestablishment candidate. who do you think that will be?

>> i am interested in voters. we will see what happens there. going onto new hampshire higher. what candidates remain in the race. why voters have said in those early states. it could very well begin after south carolina. this is a voter driven process. let the voters decide. charlie: wondering that ted cruz says. never turned out. he can bring out like donald trump can bring out. do you believe in this? it will wipe out the graphic edge to democrats. >> florida and virginia and a number of swing states. the electoral matt is our favorite. hillary clinton missing republican voters. our candidates, whoever that is.

>> the republican voter. >> every state across the country. we have an apparatus in place. we will get anywhere we can. we can get on and move. it doesn't get any missing republican voters. guys, onto you. >> good stuff from charlie gasparino. in the meantime, the market is up a lot. 250 on the dow. it is funny. quite a broken record. oil goes up. so do stocks. the shaky start to the year. the big debate tonight in the race for president. ♪ my dad gave me those shares,

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at ally bank no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like reunions equal blatant lying. the company is actually doing really well on, on social media. oh that's interesting. i - i started social media. oh! it was my...baby. >> are you shooting at had cruz or you risking taking on trump?

if you punch him, he will get a sledgehammer. most of the candidates are more to fight cruz then they are trump. connell: let's go to south carolina on that very theory. in the debate tonight, here on fox business, you are better off going back after cruz. he will not fight back as hard. >> i think that ted cruz has to tonight. they are going to have to engage because of what is happening in i love. i think the other candidates are in the business of trying to take care of marco rubio. they do not want to fight trial. trying to get into the establishment candidate. you have kristi and you have jeb bush and case it and whatever.

i think you will see a lot on rubio. going after trump. rand paul and the arena in this debate. connell: you were on with neil yesterday. giving your prediction on who would be the nominee. does that have to do with this argument that you are getting into. whether there can be some sort of an elimination? right. i am looking at iowa. i have a very simple proposition. i will tell you who will win. we get a normal traditional turnout. that favors ted cruz, probably. you have the democratic side. a lot of people, i think that favors trump. i think that it trump comes out

the winner, i do not think he gets to new hampshire higher. trump wins iowa. usually, something will happen. one rule that we do know is that low voters always move to basically offset the link from the process. i think that is why voters want more time and more deliberation. particularly, from front runners they start asking different questions. connell: right. >> i have been telling everybody. just a year ago. the 15 would be the most chaotic but little year in our history. sixteen would probably be an even bigger.

they keep trying to impose a reality that no longer exists. the american people and their discuss with the political class. across the board. b 3 we have seen it on both sides. thank you. let's move on. we are now seeing it in markets today. we will see it in south carolina. we are up to 85 now. look at that. i know that it is only one day. we do not get too focused here. we will take any gains. same pattern. oil goes to the market. if that actually a pattern. we will talk to elizabeth mcdonald next. keep it here. ♪ i have asthma...

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neil: we have business alert on these markets going pretty much state up. connell: williams, freeport-mcmoran, anything related to mining energy, seems to be doing well. stocks in lockstep with crude. if this conversation was happening another day, we might say same thing in other direction, stocks are down, oil is down. we have exclusive panel on

neil cavuto "coast to coast." we have liz macdonald and kennedy. >> emac. >> emac-kennedy. connell: i think madonna is taken. we'll go with emac. oil being down, kennedy, everybody says that's great. >> i'm glad i'm starting this. i think brent sweet light crude. connell: don't start with me. everybody says lower oil is great. we don't pay for gas. maybe the world economy stinks? >> there are other dell deleters effects and we're spiraling out of the control and investment rb index is going up and. connell: you want to talk about that. >> oil and sweet bourbon. connell: it hasn't happened like this for a while. exact every day. look at oil or indifferent? >> i think they're separate. connell: why?

what do you mean they're separate? >> we know energy prices have positive knock-on effect for all sorts of companies in the united states, especially shipping companies and airlines. connell: listen up, kennedy. >> i'm trying. i wish i had a pen and yellow legal pad to take some notes. >> we're seeing now a rare thing which both supply an demand issue with oil. all that. so the demand part of it to me is idea after recession around the corner, right? connell: do you think that's going to happen? >> i think there is concern about that. bank of america had a really interesting data point saying two things. more dividend cuts. we'll see more of that. that means recession. connell: right. >> railroad cargo traffic is down for consumer goods, not just for energy products. so they're wore bid about it. connell: a lot of that are negative to her point heading into the debate. interesting to see how the candidates deal with it. >> she talks about bank of america's data point. what i like to say, i am a

bank of america customer and when i go to chase bank and get charged $2 per atm transaction. >> two? that is cheap. >> on top of $3 for chase. connell: you should have made a run this time. >> you know what? it may be, joe biden and i will not be contested against one another and in this cycle. 2020, that is when we have perfect vision for america. connell: perfect. you've been regretting regrettis decision ever since. >> every day. connell: the name could work. one name, emac, kennedy. iran is serious story. not that that wasn't. we'll talk about coming up in a moment related to oil. it may unleash a whole bunch of oil on to the market. so what does it mean? is cheap gas here to stay? that is one of the questions people are asking. paying nothing for gas forever. we have a billionaire with surprising answer to that after this. you can't predict...

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connell: it is time for your fox business brief. we were just talking with liz and with kennedy about energy. that is the best sector of the day. the stock market turned around, did so after oil went up. the dow higher by 278 points. a nearly 3% gain. look at stocks in leadership

positions now, many are names from the energy sector. exxonmobil, up by four bucks. so that's a more than 5% gain. chevron a $4 gain to $85 a share. there is so much weakness in energy names, a lot of strength in those names today. earlier in the show we were talking about a place where we do see weakness. that is retail. best buy really has been getting hit today. in fact the drop has put the stock at new low. 25.65 is where it is today after dropping 9%. more to come with "cavuto: coast to coast."

connell: we're back here on "cavuto: coast to coast." with neil getting set for debate tonight i'm connell mcshane in our new york studios filling in for him. neil made it will be all about the candidates. but in a few weeks it will be all about the voters. in iowa caucuses get set to cast their votes officially behind a candidate. let's talk to voters right now to see what they think and what they're saying about the candidate and messages and whether anything at all is resonating. jeff flock, who better to take up this task, is with voters in a cafe in evanston, illinois. hey, jeff. reporter: we have all kind of voters here. this is the famed cafe sarcus here in evanston.

it is always packed with people. nobody is without a viewpoint. we were talking earlier, you said, you think right now donald trump has a chance to be president? >> i do. i think that he is going to give hillary all that she can handle as far as the election goes. i don't know that's a good thing from a lot of peoples perspective. reporter: how about yours? >> ask me in four years i will let you know. reporter: that's scary. you say politics is a sport for you. >> not too much into basketball or football. i was born on the south side of chicago. so it is kind of in my blood. reporter: who is your man? >> tilting cruz but still just a tilt. reporter: one of the republicans? >> yes, of course. reporter: we better get other side. oh, your food is here, gentlemen, what luck. i love it. dyed-in-the-wool democrat. will you watch the debate tonight? >> i may watch parts of the debate. i may tune in for amusement factor.

reporter: what do you say president trump or president cruz. those are two guys leading polls. >> god forbid. reporter: who is your candidate? >> i'm a obama supporter. i could live with bernie or hillary quite frankly. but either side, i think we should, as the president says, tone down the rancor. tone down the insulting dialogue. let's raise it up. raise up the dialogue to american people can admire our potential officeholders. reporter: i hear that. we will attempt to do that on the fox business network tonight. last word to rick, or marla here, i always like to by last word to the cook. >> i'm also pretty lynn ral. been kind of independent democrat. like obama a lot. a little disappointed. a lot of stuff he couldn't get through he talked about. i really like bernie a lot. i don't know if we'll get another liberal. reporter: watch the debate tonight? >> go back and forth between

that and good basketball game tonight. reporter: who scares you most amongst republicans? >> donald. he doesn't care what people think. he speaks the truth. what he thinks are the truth. reporter: they didn't believe we put democrats on. >> professional news network. hats off to presenting both sides issues. reporter: we'll end with that. connell: fair and balanced. let me ask you, one thing, jeff, with democrats on, maybe you haven't found anybody or anybody in the middle or even democrats considered supporting republican this time or haven't found them today? reporter: no, you do find that. this is illinois. there are a lot of democrats in this town. you do find some people in the middle. a lot of people like john kasich. he is the guy i think i hear more than anyone else among the republicans that a democrat could support. connell: that is interesting. he hasn't cut through in the

primary. reporter: i know. connell: jeff flock out with the voters. let's get back to the debates and candidates and what they will have to deal with tonight trying to impress those voters. charlie kirk, turning point usa from charleston. it is interesting, charlie to hear from the voters as jeff was talking to them. at the same time there is a lot of political strategy for these candidates tonight internally. that they are dealing with. we've been spending last hour plus talking about many so of the side stories out there. one of the things pat caddel brought up always interesting when he was on with us a few minutes ago about these lanes that the candidates are running in. forget about trump and cruz for a moment and i guess carson in that lane if you want to call it that. on the establishment side, which everybody keeps calling it, there is push to go after rubio, trying to distinguish yourself, whether you're kasich or christie or bush. how do you think it will play out tonight? >> it will be quite interesting. conventional wisdom for last couple months is go after trump

because he is frontrunner and loudest and obvious person to get support. last couple weeks you have seen a complete shift away from that. kasich, christie, bush, zero in on establishment frontrunner which would be marco rubio. tonight you will see a lot of crossfire coming rubio's way. it will test him to see if he stands his ground and his record voting in senate and other question marks. jeb bush super-pac is running ads in battleground states, million dollar ad buy, calling him flip-flopper, absentee voter, kasich is running advertisement. there is infighting in establishment bracket which is quite fascinating. add up all the support doesn't get close to cruz or trump. rubio at 11%. kasich, christie, 5%. that is a lot of activity. connell: you're absolutely right. who would have thought that coming in months ago. that is exactly how it is playing out. if you had to pick a candidate

out of that lane, establishment lane, come out of it, new hampshire, that seems when people think we start to see, who do you think that will be? that is first part of the question. and second, does it have to be person runs most effectively in the general or think somebody cruz or trump can really beat hillary clinton in the general? >> sure i think it's a jump ball in the establishment lane. i think there has to be one person that comes out. final four, to use a analogy in the establishment bracket is the four on the stage tonight which is kasich, christie, bush and rubio. rubio i think has the best chance. really a jump ball. you will see a lot of these guys going after each other. their pacs are running amazing amount of advertisements. if i'm rubio camp i'm nervous. no reason that the 11% is established. they have a much better shot being competitive, south carolina into super tuesday but the story within the story tonight is how do those pour people, three -- four

people, three of them governors conventional wisdom thought they would do well. rubio is raising most amount of money with most momentum and jeb bush in particular really zeroing in. connell: doesn't have to be one of them to beat hillary? >> not necessarily no. i think cruz would give hillary a run for her money. even trump is starting to be able to show he can compete with hillary in the general. connell: polling better. >> likability factor is big thing. i think cruz would be able to bring out conservatives some would argue did not vote in 2012. elect act is very -- electability is relative tiff term. everybody said mccain and mitt romney were electable. that didn't work out too well. conservative base are tired of the term electable. connell: point well-taken. charlie kirk. thank you for joining us today. back to iran in a moment as sanctions about to be lifted as we were talking about earlier despite detention of u.s.

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call now, request your free decision guide and start gathering the information you need to help you keep rolling with confidence. go long™. ♪ connell: back on "cavuto: coast to coast" to talk about iran as we were earlier. sanctions to be lifted any moment now. despite critics saying iranians detaining u.s. navy crewmembers went too far with some. images you're looking at, there are questions over iran may have violated geneva convention with release of images. first to the state department reaction. we'll talk about it. >> yes, over their heads. that is a violation of geneva convention. >> i'm not able to give that legal adjudication at this point, no. >> okay but -- >> generally speaking you're not supposed to show images of detained prisoners of war but

you know, again videos out there circulatings. we don't know if they're authentic. we don't know much about them other than they're out there circulating right now. we're going to assess. connell: we're going to assess. montel williams will do assessing as he joins us from charleston from our debate site. debate legally, they will talk around it, whether the geneva convention even applies. that said are we giving iranians a pass given images out there. what do you think of it? >> i would ask the question everybody, what would you like us to do? should we go to war right now? should we bomb iran what they did? some pontiff if i indicating is causing a little bit more of angst. connell: right. >> go through this. geneva convention applies in tires of war, times of hostility. congress hasn't declared against anybody. they haven't declared war against isis.

and geneva doesn't really abode. if you reed the convention the area where iran may be issue here is the fact they took pictures, if we consider what they have done parading prisoners for purpose of insult and prop grand today then they -- propaganda they would be in violation. connell: right. >> will we be in court case mired for next year and if they did that can we get on with fact, number one, need to do more things about training. i'm sure we'll find out along the way, last five or six years with we have not been training our soldiers exactly what they should do if they encounter situation reich this. if we look what we claim to understand to be the facts of this case, if we were truly operating and incapacitated in their territorial waters, i would suggest that to anybody look at news see what happens in the united states if we see some gunrunners coming close to florida, or drug runners coming close to florida, right, what do we do.

connell: how would we handle it right. >> we would search them. go ahead. connell: seems like you're alluding to this video we've seen of the u.s. soldier apologizing on tape. a lot of people have been reluctant, it seems, to speak about it on the record or on tv because they say, well, we don't know the circumstances. we don't know what led up to it. what are you saying about that? >> i would speak straight up, and how dare anybody this country who has not put a uniform on their back. connell: right. >> swore allegiance to this country to fight for the honor of our country question what happens when we have a soldier who is caught up in an international incident and clearly didn't have opportunity to call anybody in his chain of command. if he had a chance to call someone in chain of command circumstances might have been different. he wasn't given that chance. i would say how dare 99.9% of the people who have never put a uniform on their back, put their life in danger to protect our constitution, complain about what that soldier did, clearly under duress. connell: right. >> so i defend his actions and say. connell: okay. >> you know what? until you put a bullet or a gun

near your face and unless you were train appropriately on what the response should have been and we may look into that. there may be something we'll next couple months, know what i mean. connell: that is your point. a little more training. i get you. yes. >> i want to hear some americans stop complaining about what this soldier did when you don't have a horse in this game. your children haven't served. you didn't serve. your parent didn't serve. so stop with the madness of complainingwhat these soldiers did. connell: fair point. we have to run now. go ahead, finish your point. >> i want people to know, they have been there for months. this is the first incident you heard about. connell: like a half a second delay there with montel with our debate. fine, way it goes. we appreciate your point of view and your perspective as always. montel williams. now, let's go to the markets. 261, not bad, right, on big board. 1.6% as we move into the afternoon of trade. 16, four on the dow.

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connell: all right. back to the big board and a look at the stock market as we lead into afternoon trading with a 270 plus point gain on the dow. oil is up. so are stocks ahead of the big debate on fox business network tonight. liz claman takes it over at top of the hour. she is filling in first part of that broadcast for trish regan who is the early moderator at 6:00 p.m. along with sandra smith we talked to at last hour. then neil cavuto and maria bartiromo take it away at 9:00 p.m. eastern in the prime time debate. i'm connell mcshane filling in for neil on "cavuto: coast to coast." let's take you back to charleston.

let's get to charlie gasparino and deneen borelli. deneen, what do you have to say. >> i'm looking for candidates sigh for our country and policy and national security is something a lot of americans are concerned about. also regulation, harmful regulations harming businesses, harming jobs. like the epa for example. the number of coal miners who lost their jobs and coal companies going bankrupt. i want to hear what they do in terms of cutting taxes and regulations. connell: charlie, what storyline will emerge? seems early on something emergeses. everybody is speculating including us what that might be. what do you think moo might be tonight? >> story lynn is that two separate primaries goings-on. the primary for donald trump and

ted cruz for non-establishment primary vote and primary for everybody else. marco rubio is leading the pack among the establishment candidates. if you listen to jeb bush and everybody around governor kasich, that he is catching up, they're doing very well in new hampshire. kasich is the number two candidate in new hampshire. jeb bush put out polls showing what is going on with him. there is battle royale in two camps here. this is like ncaa bracket stuff. i said that in the past. now the brackets narrowed down to trump-cruz. you will see that battle. and the battle for the establishment. you know what is interesting about this when, if it narrows down to three, the establishment, that's their dream ticket where trump and cruz can basically kill each other off and establishment guy sneaks in right through and runs the gamut. connell: right. >> but i don't know if that is going to happen. sounds like cruz is in there for a while. donald will be there for a while.

who knows what happens after iowa and new hampshire. very interesting. listen, i'm telling you politics here. we want to hear about issues. i think neil, maria and our the people here are going to keep this on issues. connell: right. >> but behind the scenes that's what's going on. connell: i know. we have to run now. we're at top of the hour. deneen, sorry to have to cut this short. charlie will be here at end. day. >> no problem. connell: "cavuto: coast to coast" we continue our coverage on busy fox business network day. here is liz. liz: charlie, did you hear kasich pronounced two different ways. four hours away from the fox business network second republican presidential debate, first debate of 2016. i'm liz claman mon in for trish riege goon who is inside of the venue in the north charleston performing arts center. we have the signage up. we have people arrivg