do not look at your 401(k) right now. down as much as 450 in the morning session. a big story has been loyal. it continues to edge lower and lower. let's see where we go from here. neil cavuto, take it away. neil: whether a correction turns into something worse. close to 3%. 20% would mean a bear market. the nasdaq down a little bit. i should say that pretty much all of these averages, underneath, well into bear market territory. what giorgio of them are down. 30% or more.

not many places to hide. the culpepper not with what is getting hit the hardest today. >> let's talk about what we are seeing. the dow and the s&p 500. oil dropped below $27. chevron is down 6%. we are also seeing cisco systems that a new low. ibm came out with quarterly reports. now we bring you over to the s&p 500. trading at the lowest level since 2014. down 15%. it came out with quarterly numbers. that is down 11%.

traders were noting that some stocks have been slowed down here. down and selling a little bit. the big picture here, we are seeing some soft spots for it. there is a global. the number is $15 trillion. it has been erased globally. >> it is incredible. bear market territory, as well. it has been sliding away. providing more stimulus. can the government get involved? they really see that the government will not be there to help them out.

that is one of the things in asia and all the major markets they are. that is really fair. dan shafer. revealing in and of itself. >> it will continue to save us. buying stocks for the stock market. this is a continuation that people believe that everything will be great. not just in china, but in the united states. they do try to control interest rates it does not tell us everything that is going on. they have tried to pop up in the market.

japan try to do that back in the 90s. it did not work. people lose confidence in their governance. even if they do, and by the market, i will get out of this particular situation. >> that is a problem. neil: what does that mean? >> we have hit the major milestones on the downside. i feel that we do have some more downward movement to go. i mentioned before january 27 looks like a cycle low. this is untrue and uncertain. what is the magic about that.

>> around the end of january, it you get a peak of the market or a value of the markets. just a sequence that i follow. the problem that i see is, we still have five more trading days to get there. that is a big problem. it is seldom rallies and get me out. psychology has changed. it takes a long time to get back to its top cycle. now we have had this big bull run in the market. it matches the balance sheet. let me take another peek at the market. the lowest level.

the percentage it on the dow component. about 60 points worth. you had all of that. arizona congressman. a lot of political stuff. i do want to touch what is going on. supporting the markets. not showing up in supporting our own. are you okay with that? when governments start inviting in changing the markets, you will have some problems.

the markets -- we know so very little about the chinese marketplace. they are dictating quite a bit. you need to start considering america first. >> a number of disappointments. sarah palin and the chief rival. still not the benefit of those comments on new york. whether they were telegraphed in advance or not. >> i think it backfires a lot. the comments that nobody liked ted cruz. i want somebody to tell me as the facts are happening. he has followed through every step of the day.

he is back to the rule of law. neil: you remained a friend. he remained a supporter. you remained a colleague. what did you think of what trump was saying? indicated john mccain. he does not have many friends in the senate. if he became president, would that hurt it? the house has at least taken positions. allowing procedural changes. having a debate at the issues of the day. looking our culture.

talking about the filibuster deal. go down and actually utilize your voice to the very maximum on issues of the day. it is political strategy 101. the republicans are complying with it. that is why you are seeing a revolution in america today. i do not want somebody to be my friend or a realist and tell me exactly what is wrong and then engage me in trying to get that done. if you do not stand up to the rule of law, you have nothing. neil: no way of knowing and iowa or any of its other states. sir, thank you.

we could be at a bear market. it is almost something to do with chances. not all the time, but most the time. including john k said. surging in new hampshire higher. good to see you again. what do you make of this market? and the effect it could have on this race? >> at the same time, i think it is important to point that out. especially in states like new hampshire higher. this is a good point to make. while ice is on the rise and terrorism at the forefront, the economy still remains number one. you see their record of the economy and their ties to the

administration. jobs falling, people struggling. these who have not been in office for a while. you are looking at their record. neil: all of their records? donald trump has been saying, look, i know the markets. i know business. i know these people. >> this has definitely been the rhetoric on the campaign trail. >> better be careful there. >> he probably thinks that i am very stupid. it is a huge mistake for me to say this. you have governor kasich who went in when he was governor and actually cut his budget down.

>> they are not a sign of anything. they are a sign of him going from nowhere to somewhere. >> yes, it is. i do think that while not very indicative, new hampshire is dependent on a ground game. i do think that kasich is actually rising. his ability to really connect with voters. neil: there is no doubt that he is surging. people caring about jobs. new hampshire has been hit hard by her. seeing jobs fall as a result of that. >> he is tweeting about you right now.

>> fantastic. neil: great job. i want to remind you, we have a guy that knows well. governor chris christie will be joining us here. knowing full well the full effects of the market. he rebounded from it. his experience for the past year. now was governor running for the president of the united states. i do not want to just give you the half empty glass here. by and large, we know that it is going out of oil. not by the same measure. just look at interest rates. they are low. very, very low. it is under 2%.

viewership has come in. more after this. ♪

connell: your back with a business alert. what kind of the day we are having on these financial markets. netflix is an example. everyone seems like they are trying to get liquid. it does not seem to matter what type of earnings you report. the earnings last night from netflix were strong. stock should be up today. it is not.

it is down. we're seeing that across the board. mira trade or goldman sachs. earnings beat expectations. the stocks are not responding to that. everyone is trying to get liquid. whatever level we are trying to get to. even the technology. jack dorsey's company. speaking of dorsey, the selling continues and twitter. over in davos. talking about the effect that oil would be up, say, 70 or $80. now that it is in the 20s, people change their assumptions.

he did look a little ridiculous yesterday. let's hope that he has improved. >> taking orders at a diner. i am kidding. by the way, my good buddy, and interesting information, keep in mind, i love garrett. we have known each other for a decade. he loves to remind me of just how awful things are. we still have zero new yearly highs.

2041 new yearly lows. when will have more. thank you, gary. now to jeff flock on what is driving this move. it will be tough to get below 30. here we go. >> i like to try to be as positive the bike by kim b. we just made a new low. i caution you because despite all the doomsayers, the february contract its buyers today. looking at the large contract. the one that they are really trading now. that one is 27.74.

much better. i will say this, if you look at that correlation between the s&p and oil, it's, apparently, has never been greater. though correlation in the last four years is the highest that it has been. 97% of the time, oil and the s&p has moved in tandem. now, on the positive. the imf chief economist came out and said he thinks the markets are overreacting. he understands the situation with regard to oil prices. overreacting to it. you look at the energy stocks, however. those are not pretty at all.

that is my positive take on the moment. we are at session lows. we have represented more than a quarter of the dow values today. 3%. a hit is a hit is a hit. >> i would not follow oil. do not link them together. they are two separate things. right now, they are linked together. what was that? >> you have to go see the mardi gras. i have confidence in our

financial system. >> thank you, money. i really appreciate it. i will put it in some perspective. we are down 1900 points. we're closing on 16% for the highs. what is the big deal of that. we have had at least five of those in this uninterrupted old market rally. going back to 2009. the underlying stocks have. we are very close to that. again, i like to posit here. a lot of people figured they will pay 1.9% or whatever they can get. they keep losing their shirts.

there is always a place money goes. a lot of folks, these days. what comes next. stick around. you are watching fox business. ♪

dennis: this is from my staff. the new and white lows 2011. the largest number in new nyse lows since november 2008. other momentum factor. getting back to levels that we have not seen. i told you about the multiple times we have had these corrections. getting to the bear market territory. you just do not swoop into a market down 20%.

and then swoop out. we have had very short bear markets. you just do not get anything out real fast. that is one thing that we will follow. some of these tests confirm we're getting back to a key territory. interest rates are coming down. you quality and bonds. lower bond costs for you. very jaded. focusing on all the things that are wrong. i pass that along. we have mike lee joining us. how all of this is weighing on the political process. maybe they can think about it. we are off to the races. things are great. all of a sudden, you have it going on. they are still up appreciably from where they were.

you do not like to end on a down note. >> certainly not. it focuses on exactly what scares them the most. the message, it has put a strain on our nation's economy. that strain has caused all kinds of problems. it hasn't. our ability to pay down our debt. >> you are blaming this? you are blaming this on them? >> i am certainly blaming it on the federal government, yes. >> and all the efforts that the federal reserve has made, buying treasury notes and bonds or forcibly keeping interest rates so low, if we did not have that, do you think we would have the market run-up that we did? >> it is difficult to say what would have happened. in an economy like ours, unless

you deal with the fundamental problems, the fundamental problems of overregulation that no one understands, american moms and dads and workers, you are still going to have these fundamental problems. we will continue to face crisis like these. ten years from now, a our annual deficit is a scary prospect. neil: were covering this 174. it is due to cough up a little bit. do you have any idea that that may be democrats being hurt by nothing more than a calendar? the overall point is, growth

should have been stronger than this or coverage. growth could be stronger again will we start to do better. >> your argument has been, it may be a lower tax. one thing that your -- can do. try that. and a lot of other things tend to be short. >> yes. that is right. corporate tax rate in the developed world. start -- stop punishing people from getting married and having children. start adopting progrowth responsibilities.

neil: i want to get you back. this is obviously dominating a lot of attention on main street and wall street. we are down or he and a quarter point here. we had this on october 1987. that represented about 28%. today, nonetheless, it is a big hit. everyone and every stock is getting hit. a decline now since the beginning of the year. we love our heat map such as it is. i talked about this earlier. this move to get liquid. maybe we highlight ibm. just like i was talking with some of the other companies earlier. down $7.

the other thing, maybe, i think it is worth pointing out, the levels that we will start watching. that is what everyone gets into now. 1817. just a number on the s&p. it has already broken through a lot of levels. support levels. now, somebody told me this morning, maybe we need a 17 handle on the s&p. neil: the markets go down. disproportionately weighed in the dow. the rationale, for that, in the past, you put the average is together. you make it indicative of the rest of the economy. they may have doomed this as a result. let's say technology.

technology and oil in the name of exxon mobil and of course chevron and ibm. doing the one-to punch on the market. they try to figure out these averages. particularly, the dow. the stocks included therein. representative of what makes up our economy. right now, it only seems to be that as oil goes, it is not going well. those stocks will not go well either. what do you think? >> well, certainly, what we are experiencing is the result of an awful lot of developments coming together. really compounding the existing circumstance. this is a very good message right now. if we had not wrote called, we have seen that this proposal of the advice from the president.

you cannot drill your way to lower gas prices. in fact, supply does not have the effect on prices that many people thought it did. of course, demand is due to some of the fundamental transportation of the economy. we disproved this argument, for lack of a better term, against production. they have overinvested, expecting other continued growth elsewhere in the world and here. waiting for oil in its portfolio. we want to walk away from this. we may be seeing this within the larger economic cycle. oil overinvestment. we have disproved. tapping one of our greatest resources. they are abundant domestic

energy resources. the world's largest resources. demand reporting the man purporting to be the wizard over the economy. please walk away from this. when they say these things. avoiding what we should do. he even said it is a sign that you don't know what he is talking about. >> may be simpler at that at the same time. you can attach other reasons about not seeing the wisdom of having all your best. you want to pursue wind and solar. maybe this is a reflection of something more ominous. the middle east now sputtering. all of this saudi oil flooding the markets. it is simply supply and demand

and demand is not there. obviously, we are part of an economic slowdown. we do not know how long-standing this is going to be. let's not step away from the impacts. these are actually very distorting impact that do not help growth. you can rob peter and help paul's growth. you coerced into, it does not lead to overall growth. in fact, it hinders it. you have been able to choose wind and solar for 125 years. for the state to comment so come and so heavy-handed late, as the president did, no, the money needs to go here, we will take from you to send over there, that had an economic impact. we do not know how much a part

as to what we are seeing now. >> there is no denying that the two are connected here and thank you, chris, very, very much. oil continues sliding. so does stocks. a lot of people read into this. a lot of people have been asking me what it means. of course, it depends. around the time of the election, remember the election is on until november. with stocks in the bear market selling off, it is not good for the party that controls the white house. a time where stocks are cascading. he lost to bill clinton. you can just ask jimmy carter. just ask ronald reagan. there is a lot more

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>> another business alert. we know that the stock market is getting killed today. the stock being lower now for the year 2016. the money must go somewhere. just give me into cash. this is a healed behind me on a 10 year treasury note. below 2%. it is at the lowest level since at least october. the money goes into bonds. people manage a lot of money. a lot of them have hedges on. they took that off. now they are looking for places to hedge the decline. this number here does show you that the person out there may be thinking about buying a house. way down to three and a half percent. >> you know the irony to that.

the federal reserve with hiking rates. rates are low. they started hiking. i do not want to get into the weeds here. we are having a flattening yield curve. longer-term rates with no control going down. some not so wonderful things. >> it could get ugly. it does put a lot of pressure on what the federal reserve will do next. talking about what china will do. talking about what control they will have. really kind of doing anything. that is kind of a theme of what is going on here. >> if we are not careful, we will sound a lot like don imus. we do not want that.

again, into those markets. a prior hit here and all 30 dow components are down. not only today, but for that year. you have a dow that is now flirting with bear market territory. up north of 60% for its highs. double go thanks. ♪ [ male announcer ] fedex® has solutions to

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>> all right. the market is falling apart. some of the richest guys are gathering in davos. charlie gasparino is they are in the middle of it. that is his crown. let's see if he is dressed inappropriately. per pairing for more trouble some markets.

>> you do not like my cavuto get up? >> anyway -- how are you doing? charlie: it was kind of interesting. it would be pretty ironic if all the markets start crashing. that is exactly what is happening right now. there is a lot of stuff going on in the markets. middle east sovereign wealth funds. the plunge in oil. stop earned funds run for government. these governments need money. oil starts tanking below 30. they need to generate cash. all you have to do is look at twitter. held by a couple sovereign

wealth funds. it should not be tanking as much as it is now. unless big investors were puking it out. when the election heats up, will it fall into recession or slowdown, significantly from the already anemic growth. these markets are suggesting that as well. a lot of people talk about a lot of stuff here. there is a conference in this room over here. talking about where they are singing coup by every 30 seconds. the real story is, what is going on in the world markets. what it is really saying about global economies. not just china. not just part east. are we seeing a foreshadow?

some people say yes. some people say no. maybe just a slowdown. it is a parallels part in the market. i do not know where the levels are. a lot of people say dow 15,000, back to you guys. neil: okay. good. think you very much, my friend. we look forward to getting back to you. my buddy david asman, connell mcshane and dagen mcdowell with me now. dagen: all of the emerging markets. even canada, if you well. it looks like it is spreading. people borrowing money to invest in the commodity. it sounds like housing. that is what is going on.

now it has turned into just pure panic. particularly, corporations. they made a bet that the stock market would increase. they spent $1 trillion in 2015. stock buybacks. stocks continuing to go up. they borrowed money. they made statements in the mail. assuming that the price would always go up. what does that sound like? it sounds exactly like the subprime loans back in 2008. if it does not, the whole model falls apart. neil: they are selling.

they are ablow 1800s on the s&p. say we get there. we say, well, what happens next. the businesses that were putting out business plans. it is not there. >> i am worried about something deeper that is more debt driven. at least one third of oil and gas companies will go bankrupt. >> the consumer calling a commission. >> instead you have leonardo did dick caprio talking about gas companies. did you fly over there on a solo plane?

>> in terms of recession here. the individual here in the united states. whether they are watching the decline in gas prices. watching this collapse in the stock market. >> forgive me, they have a lot of stock. buying that stock on market. now they will be reminded. you have to sell some stock and/or put up some cash. prior market drawdowns. it draws down markets. a corporation leverage. it is individual leverage as well. the question is, how all of this boils down in terms of the way

the market is boiled down in 2008, 2009. there are some possibilities. it was a meltdown because of the leverage. $1 trillion. they are not as exposed to energy debt. not nearly as exposed. >> our corporations are very much exposed to the amount of money they borrowed. >> the system as a whole is set up in better capitalize. absorbing more of a stock. i think that is one thing that is going for us. this is really -- it is just four countries. we talk all the time about china. >> i also want to point to, what

the markets have been telling you. we are focused on the dow. the dow 30. the russell has lost a quarter of its value. it has lost almost one third of its value. it tends to indicate what the economy looks like down the road. these are critical transportation. >> we have another thing. earnings. we have the possibility. earnings have been bad for a while now. though markets have been going up despite the bad earnings. dagen: written it off. how many times have we heard it is just energy.

well, maybe it is not just energy. >> there is, it does affect a lot of other things. you will assume it is adding another level. they assume that. >> we are older and wiser than these two kids. we get to a point. and then we will realize after the fact. >> do you feel like you see the blood in the street? >> that is the point that i was trying to make. you take it away from me. dagen: here is what i hate hearing. where is the rescue? where are the central banks. they created this. there is no more refuge. neil: no, no, no. >> interest rates. dagen: what if it doesn't help?

neil: we will be looking at the future is. stick around. more after this. we will continue on fox business.

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. neil: all right. not a good day for the dow jones industrials. market average is very close to the point loss is experienced back on october october 1987. back then it represented a quarter of its value, today 3%, nevertheless it's a big hit and close to a 2,000 point hit on the dow this year, an average that has creamed appreciablably from its highs north of 16%. but i also like to show this if you can make it out here. this is a chart of the dow going back to the beginning of last century. i only like to point this out because i have a similar chart in my office, and i've got a lot of time on my hands. but it goes up. this is looking at the dow over that long period going up now.

when you get really close, be especially around the 1960s and '70s with watergate and hyper inflation, when you're in those moments, they are scary, and they will rock you and sock you. but the fact of the matter is when you pull back a little bit, they're blips. painful blips. not minimizing them and some of these markets take a long time. look at what happened on the melt down. but i like to point that out just as a perspective. over the long term stocks do okay. most of the time. all right. scott over at the cme. scott, what do you make -- first of all, what's going on today? and what do you tell folks about that longer term perspective that i think in large still hopes? >> yeah. you know, you're right. the problem is there is a certain sector of that will get hurt on this and -- neil: you're right? >> that are planning is selling some of those stocks. that's the people that are going to get hurt. and that's too bad.

and the other bad news i have for you is that there hasn't really been any capitulation yet. it's been rather orderly. we haven't really seen that big flush when the motions -- neil: why is that important, scott? we keep talking about that. i think that has an important role to play here. and, again, we're not seeing it. why do guys like you want to see that? not necessarily want to but why significant? >> because the psychological impact of seeing the loans get out means it's okay to buy because the sellers are now gone. they have sold what they've had and now the path of least resistance will be higher. so we have to wait for that capitulation before you start to feather in. you'll never get a picked up bottom exactly. but you want to start feather in the sick to your stomach feeling. that's important for the trader, especially the mental trade not just the fundamentals and technicals. neil: you know, scott, another thing i get and touched on it

before, the orderly retreat. i think david touched on it as well. the panic isn't there. maybe it should be, though. maybe people are resigning themselves, well, let's get out of the way of this thing. the markets will come back, buy in these dips, still a school of thought that says going into today the markets are historically rich. you can pull a stat out of your hat and argue both ways i guess. but the fact that people are relatively calm in the face of this. >> yeah. they are calm. and here's what i think. because we're in such a new environment with the central banks that have been in our back pockets helping the market rally for the last what? five, six years. neil: right? >> folks didn't think that was right. we've had seven years of zero percent interest rates with no inflation. 5% unemployment rate. but we're online producing 2.2% gdp. i mean something's broken. and i think the average man on the street saw the dow up there at 18,000 but his economy, his own money wasn't at all-time highs but the

stock market was? so i think a lot of men on the street is thinking this is deserve and that's why we haven't had the panic yet. when we start to see the panic, that's going to be the bottom. right now the average joe think so you can't have an all time stock market when my economy isn't an all-time high. it doesn't work. neil: but i remember you were among the few during the rally, well, this is built on a lot of steam here, built on a very accommodative fed. we didn't have that. of course if anyone's guess what things would really be like, maybe we wouldn't be coming down from, you know, helium aided levels. what do you think of that? >> well, that's what i started off with saying. there's collateral damage. with the fed having this fee at money, they push people out of the spectrum and started to take more and more risk with the money because they couldn't get a yield in the short-term. look at your six-month cd? what you get from that? basically nothing. maybe a sucker for your banker. but at the end of the day they're going to push you

off the risk curve and they're going to do stuff with the money that you normally don't do and that's what mom and pop does as of late. because they don't get a yield off the top of my head capital, they had to go long term, playing the stock market to an uncomfortable level and this is what happens. that free money finds dangerous places and people get burned. neil: you're good at this stuff, scott. you know that? one of the things i focus on and then we watch for the others to drop when you hear what the professionals doing. and then what you at home might be inclined to do. and if you have a broke account or some sort of money account, mutual fund, anything like that, and you were buying stocks off it. moment unless you raise a stink about it, the default isn't to buy more stocks but off the increase value. again, the margin in that account. some people stipulate, no, i only want to buy with cash on hand or that sort of thing. but many people buy that way and the value of the stocks come down to the value of that portfolio has come down, one of two things to do. you sell the stocks they're in

to make up for that. or you pay up. cash yourself. or you do both. and that's what brings us back to what we're talking about. going on where they entered via private jet and all taking a jetblue back. we don't know that for sure. i do know that's going to be the case of charlie gasparino. gerri willis is breaking apart what is going on in this market right now. first and what's not. gerri. >> all right. well, this is brutal. cold comfort here if you're worried about your own stocks. this is happening in markets all over the wold. take a look at these numbers. down in bear territory. so is the shanghai market. you look across the pond in london. european markets off too, the footsie down 3.5% today alone, the germany market down, the dax, france down as well, and now in bear territory. i want to mention here the world index, msci down 20.8%,

which is the very definition, the very definition of a bear market. so let me tell you about the full screen you're seeing right now. the bear market levels to watch. the dow will be in bear territory when it hits 14,649. the s&p 500 at 1,704 the nasdaq up 4175. a couple of more things. the dow transports struggling today. you may say, gerri, but oil is low, low, low. how can this be in such deep trouble? well, i have to tell you they're worried about future business. avis down almost 5%. cvx down 5.2%. fedex here down 5%. real trouble for the dow transports as they struggle in this market and of course the small caps, the russell 2,000 have been in bear territory for some time. neil, back to you. neil: gerri, thank you very, very much. obviously politicians are weighing in what's going on. really depends on your party. what perspective you have here. but john mccain was having a

back-and-forth on capitol hill and made an off cam comment on the markets plunge here. went on to say that democrats are in change. people hold president responsible saying that the president is responsible for market plunge. whether he is or not, if you're going to accept the good news and the great thing that happened under your watch, you'll happily take a vow. a little tougher when bad things are happening. like what i do with this show. we have bad ratings, i pretty much blame the producers. it's not my fault. it's great, like, hello. but anyway just passing that along. we have a lot more. got dagen back with us, craig smith will be joining us. david back with us. and look at this. we have sandra smith. >> hey, neil,. neil: sandra, they touched on market volatility a little last week at the debate. i have a feeling in the days and weeks ahead they're going to touch on a lot more. >> can i weigh in on the political angle here?

you just had the comments coming in from some of the politicians on this. and you will hear and as i just heard on my show on fox news channel blaming of the president for what he's done to the economy and the business. let me point this angle out. a new survey of ceos, american ceos just came out. and showed that they are more concerned this year than they were last year. the number one reason why? government overregulation is their biggest fear. so when you look -- neil: more than taxes? >> more than taxes. neil: that's interesting. >> well, it really is a tax in a way. >> well, you could say that. the second biggest concern goes to geopolitical risk. they're concerned about what's happening over there, containing what's happening over there, preventing it from coming here. but there is a lot of concern out there. so there's a lot of reasons for which you can point where we're seeing this selloff, neil. a lot goes into this. but overall when you hear the consumer angle, people just don't feel great right now. there's a lot of fear about

the rising interest rate environment if you saw that latest bank rate.com survey. more than 75% fear the rising interest rate environment -- neil: they don't have to worry about that today. >> yeah. the nasdaq 2%. that's good for people. neil: right? >> but they saw that first one and wondering when the others are going to come because now they can't depend on the if he had jumping in -- >> i think that's the biggest problem, though, -- neil: and they got used to that; right? >> investors in the last 20 years are used to a federal reserve banking system around the globe coming to the rescue. we're going to rise to the rescue, liquidity, bailouts, you want it? you've got it. and it's short-lived. one bubble after another, it collapses and inflates another one. and i think it's the same thing with people being addicted to government help. you get -- you get your mortgage rewritten, we're going to bail out -- neil: and, by the way, this -- >> pay all over. neil: capitalists they're into that themselves, you know. >> right. neil: so when they're unweaned

from that -- david: however this is the first recession of my lifetime we've come out of instead of lowering regulations, diminishing the number of regulations and lowering tax rates to give businesses a boost, we've done exactly exactly the opposite. we came out of this recession with president obama raising tax rates and raising enormously the number of regulations, which is a tax and forces them to spend a lot more money and time and human energy on. we've done exactly the opposite. the reason the markets are going up is all because of the fed. neil: well, these guys who are feeling dressed now and then bummed out. is it because they're looking at their own portfolios or bigger than that? they don't like the overall environment? >> well, the political environment, a lot of the ceos you've heard them on your show they say this is not a business friendly environment. to grow your business, to start your business. so i have said all through this election cycle that the guy or gal who gets elected is going to be the one that shows they will be the most business friendly for america.

because they have been under attack in this country. so as we see this, i wonder coming fresh off that debate last week how this is going to change the scope of the election. because it's going to have a dramatic impact. >> i have a tip for donald trump. don't bash one of america's greatest success stories bumbl because you hear that populous from him and other candidates went right after apple. he said apple needs to bring jobs back to the united states. i don't think it helps when a company has lost a quarter of a trillion dollars in market value; right? that you're going to start -- that you're going to start bashing -- >> well, he couldn't. he couldn't do it anyway. the point is he doesn't have the power -- >> you can do with a lot of regulation. you can -- congress can do a lot. neil: you're right about that. craig smith, if you'll just pipe down. [laughter] i want to get your thoughts, craig on what of the fine folks are saying is that this confidence seems to be in question here and especially among the business class. they're worried.

they're very, very worried. are you? >> yes. and the comments that were just made that we need a business-friendly environment were spot on. i mean we have had the most unfriendly climate we could ever imagine as david just said. when was the last time we came out of a recession where a government passed 500,000 pages of new regulations over the next six years? i mean it's crazy. and if you look at the comments that william white, the swiss-based chairman of the oecd made today, it tells you a lot because he said there's a trillion dollars worth of nonperforming bank loans in europe right now and emerging markets -- neil: but what does that mean? why is that a big deal? they've had nonperforming loans for a long, long time. is it going to blow up now? >> well, since post lehman, we've increased debt $57 trillion around the world, neil, and that money didn't stay here, it went to emerging markets. neil: do you think we could have another melt down?

because if memory serves me right, that took on a force and a heat of its own that went way beyond the rational of the moment. >> no. you're right. and i think dagen is right on too. the banks are much better capitalized and much better positions. but not all over the world. you have to remember the emerging markets was the benefactor of a lot of that created money. neil: right. >> that then pulled the whole economy along with it. we had the japanese growing in the '80s. the americas growing in the '90s, china and emerging markets in the 2000s. now you don't have an economic leader in the world and confidence is being lost. and if you're screened and a 1.98% ten-year treasury bill doesn't improve it, i don't know what will. neil: we have toking to commercial so that we can pay our bills. >> you get paid? . neil: that's just not necessary. [laughter] sandra, she didn't see the debate.

all right. the vix index, it's a sign of i guess market fear, a gauge of fear, it is shooting up. right now it is at 32. the highest it has been since last september. that is the market's way of telling you -- [screaming] we'll have more after this. every day you read headlines about businesses

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call to learn more. switch to liberty mutual and you could save up to $509. call liberty mutual for a free quote today at see car insurance in a whole new light. liberty mutual insurance. >> it's a market selloff, that's for sure. and here's our latest way of illustrating the same point in a different way. wynn resorts and these stocks we're looking at, crown entertainment, that would be casino stocks and the idea is that casino stocks are selling off because of weakness in china; right? well, that's true. i mean a lot of these companies do a lot of time business ost coast of mainland, china and things are not so hot there, so they're selling off. but as i've been saying the last couple of hours the real

story is everybody is selling off. everybody is trying to get yes, i did and this is another way to illustrate that point. now, if you wanted to live in a world where jack dorsey was not a billionaire, you're now living in it because he's no longer a billionaire. try being a ceo of these two companies today. twitter is getting hit, new lows every day and square the other company the payroll-type company that he's a ceo of, that's below its ipo price, so mr. dorsey is no longer a billionaire. and finally before we go back to neil and his crew over there. tesla, oh, boy, a nine-month low for the stock price at tesla. again, that makes sense because try selling electronic cars where oil is at a 1-year low. neil: that's a very good point. that was not a complement to you. don't go run away with it. we have sandra back with you, dagen back with us, so, sandra, always a concern in these markets is that they get

ahead of themselves. they do it on the upside and the downside. happened in '87, happened in '89, happened with the ruble and then the asian crisis. are we looking at something like that? >> well, i can't decide that -- neil: but i asked you to. >> we're still far from a bear market. neil: three percentage points away. >> three percentage points. neil: yeah. >> you say we would have to drop 3% from where we are now . neil: yes. >> of which highs? the. neil: the dow high of late last year. >> all right. then maybe we're looking at a bear marke. neil: outnumbered when you're not doing -- >> may i come to sandra's support -- >> she graciously stayed. neil: i'm just saying. david: she's a nice woman. the markets have increased so much, so spectacular in the past couple of years. neil: so you're in the tank. david: look, goldman sachs just a couple of years ago is trading at 90.

as bad as it's doing today, it's still at 150. neil: that's a good point. but perspective is everything with this market. even the white house was saying, hey, do you remember where we were? these markets are still more than doubled under us. >> still some people saying that this is healthy to see what we're having that we're still in the middle of a bull market. neil: yes, they're in doveose. >> i give up. david: enough said. neil: poor stra think so it's touch and go. >> no. it's altitude sickness. they don't know where they ar. neil: right. >> i want to point out something, though, that makes me a little sick to my stomach that what the federal reserve did by taking interest rates down to zero, they forced individuals into income-producing securities like guess what produces a lot of income and yield? oil stocks. >> natural liberty partnership. so the federal reserve cuts interest rates to zero. somebody who's a savior who has done good with their money can't make anything on the

longer term. neil: and security we're close to the meg that's going to be because of what's going on now and interest rates getting lower. >> by force the federal reserve forces these individuals into these income-producing instruments and look what happened. neil: yeah, but nobody claimed on the way up, sandra; right? they weren't complaining. >> it happened -- >> that's the whole point. these are people who get hit again and again and again. neil: i understand that but no one does investigations on the way up. >> i think it's important to point out that this energy selloff that we're seeing in the actual energy stocks, neil, because of the correlation the s&p 500 to the selloff in oil. down goes oil, down goes the stock market. neil: understanding. >> oil hitting a low now 8% loss on the day. that's more than a $2 plunge to the lowest level -- we haven't seen these levels in oil, neil, since i think 2003 now. this coming off the heels of this energy revolution, this energy boom in this country where now we're seeing a glut of oil to the point where we could not sustain those prices that drove that energy revolution.

david: and, again, to dagen's point of how'dth the fed has distorted these markets, that's again how these companies are borrowing so much in order to do the stock buy backs and increase their dividends to a point where they don't have any money left over for r&d and expansion. they've been spending all of their monies on financial means rather than on running their business. doing the things that they do. >> but those companies and ceos ought to know better. i get upset about the little guy who has been screwed over and over and over again by the federal reserve and policy makers. david: because they can't make a dime by saving money, which is what they're supposed to do. >> right. and their not he didn't it anymore because of the policy. neil: we should point out chevron at session lows as well. it and ibm accounting for most of the dow drop today. keep in mind they're supposed to mimic or be a good reflection of the overall economy and it was configured in a way not that long ago that energy would play a prominent role, technology would play a prominent role and today because of

technology and because of oil. we're losing our shirts. stick around.

. . . . . .

neil: all right. it doesn't take much to get politicians talking if they bring it into a political discussion and selloff is doing just that. democrats at the white house saying whatever you say about the markets and volatility this year they're appreciably up since barack obama became president. they're technically right about that, almost triple. and now seven years stewardship of the nation but john mccain, taking a look at volatile markets today, people owe the president responsible for market plunge. things were looking okay for economy and markets before the meltdown of george bush in his final year in office. could that be repeating itself out to barack obama? way, way too soon to say. mark serrano i guess here to say that mark, what do you think?

>> nobody in american politics more qualified to make that statement than john mccain, neil. do you remember in the fall campaign of 2008 when the banking crisis hit -- neil: yes i do. >> candidates suspend campaigns, they rushed to washington and i knew, when i saw that photo on the front page of the paper, john mccain, barack obama, huddling up with george bush and congressional leaders that john mccain had lost the race. he should have stayed away from washington. should have campaigned against the elite and establishment who got us into that mess. said i will have nothing to do with them. i knew he lost that day when he went back there. neil: if you're against the bailout people were getting afraid if they didn't see it because of all the doom and gloom scenarios by likes of president bush, rumsfeld, dick cheney, i remember jack welch, late great, jack kemp were warning of armageddon if we didn't get it. >> yeah but who paid price? created greater economic anxiety in the elector a look at 1980.

jimmy carter fueled economic anxiety and anxiety about terrorism just like we have today. and so that's why the outsiders, that is, by the way, the number today is one year from today, a gop outsider will be inaugurated president of the united states. that's the great number from today. neil: what is the number that you have got there. neil: oar prop, 365. >> 35 days from today, our long national nightmare of this administration is over. neil: would one have worked better, being -- i kid. >> you know. neil: i'm a kidder. hang on, don't want you to go anywhere, buddy. i want to bring my buddies back into this. connell mcshane joins us against my better judgment. >> nobody else available apparently. neil: what do you think of idea this is political fodder. when things go well, you can when they don't? for democrats could this be a problem? still early in the year. >> of course the next phase whatever we're going through will be the most interesting

phase. see if the market stablizes with were talking about the 08 comparison, people start making comparison to '08 will be like this again. neil: escalated year-end. >> when banking crisis hit in fall of 08. it argue it hit in march of 08 when bear stearns imploded. by summer picked up again it was real problem. neil: you don't say this is hen? >> follow with similar pattern, not the same problem but similar pattern. >> real political point we were talking about the bailouts. who would be -- say the market goes down another 3,000 points, 4,000 points like it did in '08 and '09? who would we bail out? this is not one particular industry. this is the entire stock market. >> this is the entire american populace to the extent people haven't been making as much money. >> is there bailout point to this? bernie sanders is in kind of a tight spot because he is coming out against wall street and against financial titans

et cetera. what happens when people's 401(k)s are hurt? >> bailout will come from china. not from here. >> i don't know. any bailout would be central bank related. neil: wouldn't affect, stocks, right? >> bailout, centerpiece would prop up oil price, prop up energy price. what does that do? it props up vladmir putin and leaders of countries that hate us. that is not going to likely happen. i think timing of '08 what happened with the market collapsing and financial system almost collapsing, so close to the election and it was john mccain suspending campaign -- >> mark's right. that was nuts. >> going to washington and having to watch hank paulson and nancy pelosi bailout the financial system. tea party that gave rise to the tea party. tea party was born on that bailout. people don't want it. neil: that is history lesson. >> this is like going back 800

years. neil: bill clinton campaigning on the stump. of course he represents a time, the boom times but we forget in his 8th year in office things were slowing down and internet boom bust, dagen will no doubt remind us and will with historical detail second to none after this. >> we've got to maximize. but there is one car that can conquer them all. the mercedes-benz c-class. five driving modes let you customize the steering, shift points, and suspension to fit the mood you're in... and the road you're on. the 2016 c-class. lease the c300 for $399 a month at your local mercedes-benz dealer.

neil: all right. you sound weird saying we're off our lows for the day but we are technically for the time-being, down 449 points. so what are you complaining

about? we're no longer down 550 points. anthony scaramucci looking at this from davos. he book ad greyhound trip for the trip back, he realized oh, my gosh, we have to cross ocean. that is not possible. >> i'm flying back with leonardo dicaprio. neil: i figured as much. i figured as much. in all seriousness, my friend you're getting sense of what power brokers of the world are thinking, you among them about what is going on. is there concern this is leading to something more on must? what do you think -- on minute news? >> this indicator of the powers that be if they're negative time to be more bullish. neil: is that right? >> every time i come here neil, done the opposite what was said here we've done pretty well in the market. so you as an example, in 2007, people were wildly bullish. in 2008 after lehman brothers went bankrupt, they were wildly bearish, that was actually the, i had mean, 2009 i should say,

we went into the stage of the bull market. i think right now though, i think we're at the bottom here. this is near term bottom. i'm going to call it right here on your show. you've had three gaps down, which, typically is what a market bottom looks like. the aai, which is the american association of individual investors is at its low point. now at 18. meaning bulls, 18% bulls, 82% bearish. that's usually a very big contrary indicator. it is also the lowest it has been in 20 years. when you having a situation like this, neil, there is no supply above these market levels. so my guess is, we're at near term bottom for the markets. as things start to clear up, people start to recognize that the economy is not faltering here. we're probably okay. neil: but, david asman raised an interesting point earlier, they're not buying on these dips, they're not buying on these lows so what do you make of that?

>> again as supply drains out, one of the big things we're discovering this year, something steve schwarzman wrote about last year, the volume itself does not necessarily mean there is a lot of liquidity in the market. electronic trade something giving people image of liquidity. every time you have massive selling, neil, markets gapped down, neil. when there are a few buyers, market gapped up. i'm suggesting to you and our viewers there is not a lot of supply selling stocks now above these levels on a technical basis. so my guess is we'll bounce here. you have caught the low, i think for today. neil: thank you, buddy. i know you have a busy schedule there. >> pretty bold prediction. thank you for letting me make it. neil: like fondue or something, yeah, market is down. we have a lot more coming up with my colleagues and friends picking apart what it means. it is a day and snapshot in time but not a very pretty one. what is the trend? to our guest's point, they're

not pounces on opportunity to buy as they have in prior downdrafts. what does that mean? stick around, you're watching fox business. it'll get better. i'm at the edward jones office, like sue suggested. thanks for doing this, dad. so i thought it might be time to talk about a financial strategy. (laughing) you mean pay him back? knowing your future is about more than just you. so let's start talking about your long-term goals... multiplied by 13,000 financial advisors. it's a big deal. and it's how edward jones makes sense of investing.

>> okay. at our fox business brief today we are going to focus on financials with you, just a basket of them now down 3%. if you run through individual banking stocks today even though it is worth pointing out the market is well off the lows is, such as the day is, 100 points off the low, bank of america,

jpmorgan, citi all off big amounts. wells fargo is less than 2%. even if you report better-than-expected earnings whether you're goldman sachs or we talked about earlier td ameritrade, the stocks are selling off and that selloff continues even if things are not as bad as they were hour ago or half an hour ago. in terms of the broader market, we're down 410 points now. down over 500 points a number of times. vix is something we watch closely. up around 32ish. we're back below 30 on the fear index. neil continues our coverage in just a moment.

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so you always know where he stands. right to rise usa is responsible for the content of this message. neil: all right. the selloff continues here although it's not as bad as it was. not saying not as bad, 410 point. but we were down close to 550 points. well into correction territory, only few percentage points away from a bear market and this is a big reason why, oil slip-sliding away another 8:00 percent today. you know the drill. it moves in tandem with stocks or is it stocks move in tandem with it. phil flynn at the cme. phil, what's going on? >> i call it an oil tantrum, neil because this is going beyond reality. what we're seeing here is fear. you can see it all around the marketplace, whether you look at the vix index, neil, whether you look at price of gold up almost 20 bucks earlier this is about fear.

you would think the low oil prices could be good for somebody, consuming nations maybe, may get a kick in the teeth with low oil price but we're not seeing that. we're seeing low oil prices is being viewed by the market, rightly or wrongly as a bad thing for the global economy and that really is what engulfed this market today. you have other things in play. you have this february crude oil contract, it will expire today. they are driving the february contract a lot lower. that will be gone in less than an hour. the march contract actually getting a little bit of a bid. so we're seeing february go down, march bo up. it will be a wild close. back to you. neil: buddy, thank you very much. phil flynn, now to melissa francis rejoining my friends, david asman, dagen mcdowell. you guys have a couple of hours to sort of sort through this. what do you think it will look like? >> yeah. here is my take. i will buy 10 barrels of oil. keep a couple in my office. one or two in the car. store them around the house. we're back to where oil was when

i first inherited the oil beat million years ago at some other network whose name i couldn't even remember. there you go. at the time somebody was telling me oil would go through 30 and through 40. that will never happen. neil: that was asman. >> right. i can't believe the collapse in oil prices. it is hard to imagine is is really going to stay here. neil: do you think it's overdone? >> i do think it's overdone. doesn't mean it will turn around real quick. i don't think selloff in equities is overdone. people ask me on the street, elsewhere in the building, time for me to buy, i say quietly? stretch away from the computer. don't do anything. >> scaramucci how davos is contrarian indicator. five years ago richard branson was holding stage peak oil. >> oh, yeah. >> he said five years, which is now essentially, we'll be running out of oil and oil will be $300 a barrel and everything. it fits two things.

one that davos is reverse indkite tore as scaramucci said. two, you never know. we never saw how much oil would come on line because of fracking and other things. never sell commodities short in terms of their ability to make more of -- everybody is always saying we'll run out of this, run out of that. nonsense. >> technology. >> nonsense. >> i'm at least given a little bit of solace gasoline prices have come down. neil: you always argues that wins out. >> you have a consumer-driven economy. 70% of this economy is because of u.s. individuals. i think that can turn confidence around a little bit. neil: why would you do without it, right? >> exactly. another thing i point out to the credit of the american people, you've actually had, since financial crisis people are selling u.s. stocks. they're not exposed to stock. stock ownership is lowest in about two decades. they have been buying fixed income. they have been buying security and staying away from stocks.

right now that looks, very, very wise. neil: whether they know it or not through the 401(k) or pension funds lucky to have such a thing are directly invested. you're right, individual participation is very low. >> don't want to build scaramucci's ego. >> please don't. >> came on 480. he said 450 was the low. neil: referring him by his last name like italian swipe. >> there are so many anthony's. >> you're always beating up on my german ancestry. you put an extra s in my last name. >> we do that to your face. >> my, goodness. >> she was talking about working other network, i want to say this on television, i was down there one day working for the news channel. >> i met. >> you she was kindest, most genuine person then and now. >> check's in the mail. >> a lot of people don't act like that. neil: she is childhood star. >> oh, my for. neil: she was trading equities

on "little house on the prairie." >> and drilling for oil. we were fracking. it was early fracking. neil: a barrel of oil. remember that distinctly. >> i still have that oil. neil: bet you do. she has to go. david has to go. they have a big show. putting it all together, predictions where dow will be? >> oh, david, why don't you do that. >> 35. >> oh, okay. neil: there you go, that's all you need to know. don't click off just yet -- 375. ♪

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everyone has something at stake and they do see savings at pump. you raised, dagen, that could be something they start really exhibiting in sales although we haven't seen it. we have sort of to get the to bottom of where we would be without that but dagen, your point is specifically what? >> in terms of confidence, if you have a major loss in confidence among the american people, they, even if recession is not on the horizon they can make one happen. neil: they can make it happen. >> if they hunker down and stay at home. drop in gas prices will compensate a little bit and over what is happening in the stock market. people pay attention to the stock market. they know they have money in stocks in 401(k) plan. that is not something people need to tap for the most part in short run and you shouldn't be in stocks anyway. neil: let's say it wasn't that impressive, was a lot of money, right? do you think we would be a lot worse off without the tumble in

goose prices? >> no. i think dagen has a point. what people are looking at for the long term, yes, their savings, sure, 401(k) might have a little bit of impact but short term they're saving money. give you example, in 2015, from a jpmorgan study they did last year, people saved $360 for that year just from gas savings. will probably to down now that we're seeing the oil prices drop but what they did spend on wasn't what they thought would spend on, going out to retailers. what they ended up spending on was restaurant. now, speaking of consumer sentiment, seeing things coming out of chipolte, well, we have the e.coli situation, people where people are spending their money. once you have announcements like that, there is a company called -- neil: you're telling me they spent their money at chipolte? >> not just chipolte. a lot of those -- neil: saying, processed meats and cheeses would be a fine avenue. >> they're spending it on restaurant industry.

neil: understood. >> so whether -- neil: much to account for that, but, you know, everyone's where is this bang for the buck? >> absolutely. you need savings in gasoline to offset lack of wage growth that you've had since 2008. neil: right. >> and jamie dimon told maria that people are spending 8% of that gasoline savings. it is more than -- neil: how would know from the back of his limo? how would know that? >> he runs most important bank in the country now. he would -- neil: window is screened out and you look at a pump, oh, yeah. >> you know what? do you still have a limo? limos are really not cool. neil: really? i just ride with navy. he gives me a ride. what is mood of people here? you always see this kind of stuff. everyone makes a big deal like psychologically have effect. markets run up, people feel better. boss is happier with something like that, assuming he or she

has stock and opposite way if it goes the on sate way, what do you make of that? >> overall people feeling a little better about the employment situation. we've been seeing that last couple months. >> did we see it reflected in holiday sales? >> some ways yes but goes back to what dagen was saying -- neil: you agree with everything dagen said? >> dagen is super smart. neil: really? >> thank you. "fox news poll," recent one on economy, number of people who feel optimistic about the economy dropped from 49% from 58% a year ago. only 78% -- number of people feeling optimistic has fallen pretty dramatically in the last year. people are not feeling it. >> we have to talk about what is happening in the employment sector. neil: big hit again. >> 9.4 million jobs represent the oil sector. so when you start seeing them and cost of oil go down like this that's where job --

>> about bankrupts so far last year. 1/3 of oil and gas companies could be bankrupted. neil: at minimum. where is congressional investigation into that? >> yep. neil: not holding my breath breath stick around. watching fox business. for over 75 years, investors have relied on our disciplined approach retirement journey takes you, we can help you reach your goals. call a t. rowe price retirement specialist or your advisor ...to see how we can help make the most of your retirement savings. t. rowe price. invest with confidence.

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neil: you did not need a timer on this to get the political fallout. let's step back here. even with the selloff. we are up when the president assumed office seven years ago today. the dow is almost triple. republicans seizing on this. the support for the markets, they are coming home. senator john mccain. holding the president responsible for this. both the left and the right. this will become the thick

focus, as it did last week. what they made of that, you may find this a new shocker for those that missed the debate. the white house people say it is all their fault. all right. trish: you are the one that said it was all obama's fault, right? neil cavuto, thank you very much. the dow seemingly in a freefall. it is off the lows we saw earlier in the session. now just down 378. repeatedly warned the consequences of easy monetary policy from the fed. he will be here, everyone, in just a few months. i am trish regan. welcome to the iel