stuart: quick check of big board shows modest loss. let's go to neil cavuto who is in iowa. neil, it is yours. neil: thank you very much. donald trump is betting most attention speaking to crowds in water lou iowa. big question with republican frontrunner whether that can translate into huge votes? will people commit time, energy and know their caucus site and stay two ours or more? anyone's guess. weather right now still pretty good. expected to remain that way through much of the evening and 7:00 p.m. when the caucus actually formally kicks off. it can to on whenever.

there is no ening time for this. turnout will be key right now. newt gingrich following all of this, how important it is and turnout affects different people for different times and different contests. newt, good to see you. thanks for coming. >> good to be with you. you guys done a great job try to bring iowa to the country and about the caucus. i've been watching all weekend. it is very impressive. neil: appreciate that, newt. it's a different beast, caucus versus primary. there are a lot of people outside of the area, busy manhattan where we work or at least staff works here. they don't understand it. i find there is something to be very iconic, almost norman rockwellian about it. explain why you think it is significant the first-in-the-nation status it has? >> i like the fact you start in iowa and go to new hampshire. it allows every candidate to be in small enough environment that money doesn't drown everything.

you can make a difference. you can visit all 99 counties and see people face-to-face. our two caucuses are different. republicans go in, by secret ballot and counted. democrats go in organized. hillary clinton time goes to one side of the room. bernie sanders goes to one side of the room. martin o'malley's side. if you're under 15% your group has to pick somebody else or pick uncommitted. one of the things to watch for on democratic side, how many people decide they want to go to sanders? i think almost no place where o'malley has 15%. so his voters could be cobe decisive vote who wins because it is so close between sanders and clinton. democrats tend to adopt, lots and lots of resolutions. democratic caucus much longer than the republican caucus.

there is concern that could get democratic results much later than republican results. what is your theory? because of the microsoft relationship. because jeff kaufman the state chairman has done a great job organizing, learning lessons of 2012 i think republicans come in very early, very accurate. there is pretty good chance good friend of mine thought in her precinct, 8:30, 8:45. 9:45 in the east for her particular count. it will be translated immediately on microsoft app. you will see results coming in very fast. i wouldn't be too surprised by 11 or 11:30 eastern time we had a pretty good sense of iowa republicans. because i think it could be very close between sanders and clinton, and. more time-consuming model, it could be late in the night before we know for sure who has won.

microsoft has the same deal with the democrats. when they have a report they will report instantaneously. it will take them probably an hour 1/2, two hours longer than the republicans to get to a report. neil: that is the kind of stuff i'm hearing. i always worry too, newt, when it comes to using technology for the first time, microsoft is very impressive company no doubt, their technology is impressive no doubt, but anything that is used for first time usually has some kinks. we'll see what happens. while i got you here, reaction to bob dole, former republican standard-bearer in 199. 6. been very trim call of ted cruz. would be much more divisive than donald trump. i want to rye exact to this comment from bob dole yesterday. you still harbor doubts from ted cruz. >> he shut down the government twice. and cost millions of dollars and

put a lot of civilian workers out of work for a few days. i doubt that he is a republican. i know he has to, can't run or extreme conservative so he has to -- he is a rino he is republican in name only. neil: you know when i did get a chance to catch up with ted cruz and get his react to what mr. dole was saying, he actually used it as a campaign pitch. another establishment guy doesn't like me. i must be doing something right. i'm paraphrasing here. what do you make of that? >> first of all i think first time anybody ever say ted cruz is rino, normally means moderate the way it is used. dole represents a substantial number of people, particularly in washington, who have concluded if they have to choose between cruz and trump they would prefer to work with trump. i think cruz has been very clever coming back saying see, that is proof i'm only guy who the establishment really doesn't

like. i think it is a wash. if you're worried about getting things done in washington, you could make the argument it hirts cruz with this kind of comments, if you want to send washington a jarring signal, cruz could turn it around to his advantage. neil: are you of the camp that ted cruz given fact he was doing so well in the polls couple weeks ago, leading in pretty much all of them, if were to lose state to donald trump, and donald trump picks upham ham, donald trump is hard to beat for the republican nomination? >> i think cruz has more at stake tonight than anybody else because this was a good state for him. because he worked it so hard. built such a big organization. has done almost everything you're supposed to do in iowa. trump by sheer momentum and publicity overwhelms him, this is seen as significant blow to cruz.

frankly in trump wins here, much further ahead in new hampshire here than he is in iowa. pretty hard at that point. it begins to look like everybody figure out how to gang up on trump because he will have huge momentum coming out of new hampshire. neil: since emergence of trump the word huge is become, like huge. it is weird. always a pleasure my friend. >> good to be with you. neil: man who start ad revolution, really one of the more impressive speakers of the house we ever had in washington. a lot is made of this fine state and it's a great state, putting it into perspective for our next guest, for democrats 44 delegates at stake here but you need over 4700 in the total count of delegates for democrats. so represents fewer than 1% of all the delegates that you ultimately are part of the sauce here. for republicans, 30 delegates at stake. 2472 delegates in all will be headed to the republican national convention this summer.

so in perspective, iowa seems teeny. because it is first off in the nation, it gets a great deal of attention as it should. first-in-the-nation, you should have more than a few people watching what you're doing. caitlyn burns, joins us, "real clear politics." also we have the daily caller senior political editor. you guys have heard so much talk about turnout, large turnout helps bernie sanders, large turnout helps donald trump. caitlyn, do you agree with that? >> i actually do. i think turnout matters more on democratic side. bernie sanders said over the weekend if turnout is big we win. if not we lose. on republican side we've seen in polling, yes, donald trump trying to bring new voters in. higher turnout benefits him. we're seeing sturdy numbers among those who have caucused before. that will be interesting to watch. "the des moines register" poll

that came out on sunday didn't detect as they said, a wave of new supporters and he was still leading. neil: no way to forecast how heavy of a turnout factors in or time it takes to count all the votes. in 2008 almost 250,000 folks showed up to vote. that was the year of course, with passionate almost tidal wave support that barack obama enjoyed and that was telegraphing things to come, even though he would lose new hampshire the very next week. how important is turnout to you when you sort of factor in things? how important is it? >> very big, i'm going to one of the republican caucuses here outside of des moines tonight. we know in 2012 there were about 122,000 republicans went out and caucused. i'm going to be looking for signs if it is looking like explosion on top of that, a lot more people than that i think it will be a very good night for donald trump. if, i start talking to people, and looks a lot more normal i

think that will be good for ted cruz. we think at this point he has more coordinated ground game than donald trump. at least that's what people say. a lot of these campaigns love to go out there and show off to say we have great ground games. this is what we're doing. donald trump though, his people are little it about more mysterious. there is a big debate does donald trump actually have a good ground game? keep if mind it is all naysayers that chuck who helped rick santorum win four years ago he is leading for trump here in iowa. neil: you're right about that. separate theory, caitlyn, goes, that maybe donald trump's support is understated. a lot of people don't admit or will say publicly they support the guy. and so his numbers could be looking even minimized right now. do you buy that, all of sudden he emerges a very big winner because people who don't tell pollsters they like donald trump end up voting for donald trump.

>> well, one reason iowa tends to be unpredictable, voters tend to decide late. i can't tell you how many voters i talked to various voters across the state at various campaign events that they're still making up their mind. neil: half the voters here. half the voters here. >> polls show that and on the ground that's certainly the case. and so a lot of people i talk to said they make that decision monday night. as we know the caucuses, you go in and hear speeches from variety of people. and opinions can be swayed in those very last moments. so, i could see a scenario in which trump support is understated. i could also see a scenario in which maybe support for cruz or rubio is not showing up as much in the polls now. neil: now, alex, i find it intryinging when people are asked who is your number one, number two choice. among republicans it seems to be marco rubio. should we glean any significance from that, and that however the

caucus process will work and people who haven't made up their minds, reminds me of people with restaurants, waiting to make your order and waitress is waiting and wade waiting, i don't understand how that works but nevertheless, that is where things can get kind of weird? what do you think? >> yeah. i mean i think there is some evidence that marco rubio could be surging a little bit. i will tell you what, i am prepared for all sorts of potential surprises to night. i talked to smart people who say donald trump is definitely going to win this one out. i talk to other smart people, there is chance that donald trump could even come in third place and have ted cruz and rubio with the first two spots. people said, hey, don't forget about ben carson, polling in fourth place. what if he surprises people and gets like third place? i think that will make this so much fun tonight, we have really absolutely no idea what will happen whether all the people that go to donald trump rallies, will they show up to the caucuses tonight.

neil: we'll find out won't we, right? thank you very, very much. we're back at this on 8:00 p.m. on fox business network. continuing to whenever whenever, however long it lasts. four years ago, on fox business we stayed 2:30 in the morning. even then it wasn't confirmed rick santorum had won and mitt romney lost. many argue that santorum robbed chance to parlay momentum from this state into new hampshire. who knows if that will happen. fox fans, are in bit of a conundrum. you love neil. of course you do. bret baier you love him. bret already told me you can dvr him and watch me. again, that is the way he rolls. we'll have more right after this. announcer: a horrific terror attack in paris.

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neil: attention america, we have a statement from adele. yes, adele finally issued a statement of controversy of music being used by various politicians. she fingered donald trump who her stave said ha no permission, no permission to use her music at campaign events. just couple minutes ago being introduced in waterloo, they had an adele song. i think the song was, rumor has it. rumor has it you can't do that, mr. trump. and she is ticked. her staff had said, adele has not -- they're british. adele has not given her permission for her music to be used for any political campaigning and she is very upset. and she didn't say, rolling in the deep was juan. trump you are in deep you know what if you keep using that song

because adele doesn't want you to. didn't want mike huckabee using it when he used "hello" in one. adele a woman of few words, she doesn't have a last name anymore. she made it very clear she is upset. we go from adele to cadell, as in pat cadell -- >> we're deeply related. neil: related, right. what do you think of these fast moving, shocking developments? by the way, bret baier top that but i digress. what do you make of this. >> i'm just in shock, we're having big news here while everyone is still waiting to vote. adele is making it for all of us. you are really in rare form. neil: i think adele is trying to tell the world, i'm an artist, i'm not a politician. >> that's right. neil: she is practically screaming it. >> so is the american people. neil: right. what do you do? what is the rule of thumb with that, when politicians use, you know, songs on the stump without clearing it? you remember when chris christie

got in trouble with bruce springsteen, right? big bruce springsteen fan apparently said, don't use my music, whatever. do they have the right to do that? >> sure. they can say the music, people use lyrics and other things. neil: sure. >> you know, they protest but what the heck. neil: you know, i wouldn't, if i were adele -- >> i wouldn't be -- neil: she has to sell a few albums. not doing too well. only selling a few billion. >> should take the advertising. free publicity. neil: adele, if you want do come on, excuse me. all right. on to other developments, what do you predict for the state? >> i think turnout will be big. neil: you already said that. >> went to bernie rally to see what the bern was and it as really hot. neil: what are your predictions? >> there is new "quinnepiac poll" that came out this morning -- neil: which don't quote polls. >> i do for guidance, first time

showed bernie ahead. neil: so you predict bernie wins? >> i think that is very close. i can't, he might have tiny edge. neil: what do you think on republican side. >> i think trump wins. neil: adele dust-up notwithstanding? >> unless this continues to heat up during the day. you remember, nobody's voting. we have a voting day where nobody votes until 7:00 when they close the doors. neil: sure. >> which makes election day crazy. neil: sure. you're going to be joining me tonight. >> we are. neil: sure i could be with bret baier, why? >> i even on radio explained to people, anyone who didn't watch you and i last year -- neil: you missed -- >> missed everything. we will have special things that no one will have. neil: we could have adele. >> we could have adell, you never know. you the beast you are -- neil: not the beast you are anymore. pat. >> what do we call them? neil: dvrs. >> dvrs, do you still have

one? >> hard for me. technology, no. i never did. i just had one. neil: amazing you're such an historic figure, you made this state famous in large part for jimmy carter who won in '76 and won going away. >> put iowa on the map. neil: you're the blame. >> i in some ways am. neil: indeed. young patrick with president carter. >> oh, my god, look at that. neil: you look like a hippie back then. >> look at my hair. neil: like a future adele fan. >> should have seen me in 72 with mcgovern. neil: rumor has it you were a hippie. >> almost. neil: rumor has it you were a hippie. pat said, 8:00 p.m. on fbn. anyone can show up. we're hearing increasingly, right, pam, adele will probably show up. >> you got it, boss. neil: your career hinges on it. we have a lot more coming to you from iowa. it just gets better and better and better. stick around. more after this.

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neil: adele talks and she is not

happy. welcome back, everybody. now a lot of people have been emailing, neil, adele's comments on donald trump not using her music have nothing to do with you. oh really? prove it. we were first to say he was using adele music at campaign events. including one today. what does she do, respond, to say cease and desist. her people are not happy. they don't want to be mixed in politics in america. they were similarly critical of mike huckabee using her famous song "hello" in a campaign parody spot. they stopped. no indication donald trump is stopping. those people who say doesn't have anything to do with me, technically you're right but indirectly something to do with me. we are following also, ralph, producer back in new york, if adele calls, patch her in. go through the motions. you know what to do. connell mcshane following all

the big money coming in besides some of the big controversy from adele and rest. connell what do you have? >> neil, i am happy you taken the obsession with adele on the road with you. thought you left it in the studio. neil: got a lot of curious looks. >> money, we'll have plenty of date too -- to go through tonight. money race is big one. a lot of argument tonight winners with will have momentum. make second and third place finishers especially on republican side as well. we're looking how much money has been raised or was in the fourth quarter last year by the republican candidates with of all people, dr. carson leading way, at 23 million. down there you cruz and rubio doing well. some people like santorum and huckabee come to mind you heard a lot of talk if they don't do well, end of the road is near. not raising much money at all. on democratic side, a lot of money being raised. hillary clinton and bernie

sanders a lot of money raise. what is interesting not how much they're raising how much they're spending. cash on hand, suddenly carson at top of the heap is way down on the list with 6.6 million. cruz and rubio have plenty of money to spend. they have been spending a lot going at each other in large part, trying to secure second or 30 plays tonight. again to make make point, hucka, santorum you have barely any money. you have to think if you don't do well tonight you're in trouble. hillary clinton has as much money as she race raced. there is plenty of money for her, neil, an bernie sanders with $28 million. amazing what he has done, averaging $27 per donation, only small donations. neil: that he gets all that money in small donations for the nomination. thank you, buddy, very much. if adele calls new york studios,

let me know because we're here. charlie gasparino, you've bun following the money trail and who helps and hurt an how money doesn't always close the deal, what are you hearing now. >> it does not close the deal on donald trump, if you notice how much he is and aring and spending miniscule compared to everybody else. i will say this the real money race doesn't begin after iowa at least people i'm talking to in the fund-raising community, it begins after new hampshire. that's where what, when you talk to the big guys, the write big checks, wall street guys, paul singers of the world, guys part of the republican fund-raising establishment, they're with holding their checks until after new hampshire. that is when we'll see who gets what and when. listen this, is wide-open race as you know now. iowa is not, i don't believe indicative of what's going to happen later in the year although i think it is big for trump. i mean if trump, here's, among fund-raisers, this is what they're worried, trumps actual

voting, people that actually vote for trump, somehow corresponds to his polling f that's the case they know they're in deep trouble, that trump can run the table if he wins here. he is probably going to win in new hampshire and probably going to be unbeatable. that is one thing they're really worried about, after new hampshire is where rubber meets the road with money. i will say this, there will be tremendous pressure in jeb bush doesn't live up to expectations here and in new hampshire on him to drop out. there will be tremendous pressure on kasich. there will be one establishment candidate i believe, at least pressure on all the others to coalesce around one establishment candidate after new hampshire and big money will go to that candidate, whether it's rubio, jeb, kasich. odds are now looks like rubio, and only three-person race, cruz, rubio, trump, with trump having tremendous momentum. neil: no way to till until tonight. we shall see. charlie gasparino, thank you very much.

another factor in the race are all young voters, all college voters. quite a few, 120,000. senator rand paul is very popular with this group. if they were to turn out with numbers that they turn out for his events, it could be a very different race than what pollsters are showing. will the young group be restless enough to turn out to these polls? could they change the way everyone is looking at this state? rand paul after this. ♪ i appreciate you coming by. absolutely. the market's been pretty volatile lately. look jim, we've been planning for this for a long time. and we'll keep evolving things. so don't worry. knowing what's on your mind and acting accordingly. multiplied by 13,000 financial advisors. it's a big deal. and it's how edward jones makes sense of investing. every year, the amount of data your enterprise uses goes up.

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>> neil: welcome back, everybody. you know, statistics are risky. half of those voting in iowa will be the first time. the majority of them will be college kids. 20,000 kids in iowa. largely iowans. senator rand paul with us. >> thanks for having me. >> neil: how do you think it goes with youth votes? >> there's poll that had us getting first place among those under 30, now if everybody were just under 30 voting, that's a good sign. we were at the university of iowa last night. we've been doing this all over. we have campus organizations on 22 campuses.

really, we have dorm captains. >> neil: dorm captains? >> yeah. >> neil: what do they do? >> pizza and beer. >> neil: the problem with young voters or at least the rap is they can show up at events but getting to go at a caucus site and hang out for two hours -- >> you have to do two or three mailings. it's a real pain to vote. this is just show up. you don't even have to be registered. that rand paul guy, i like him. >> neil: in iowa you can register that day, that night and have at it. >> yeah, we think the fact that i talk a lot about individual liberty, personal liberty, kids today, they text each other

across the dinner table. so they don't understand why the government should have access to that. they're not doing anything wrong. >> neil: could the argument lose from attacks? >> no, two bipartisan commission looked at this, and i really i think you can get the record of terrorists, put the name on the warrant. put the people they call on the warrants. >> neil: how important is this state to you doing well and what is doing well? >> i think it's very important. unless you're overwhelmingly the front runner, he can lose one or two races. for everybody it's important to do well. momentum of iowa carries on. i think we are going to beat two-thirds of them. even if we don't -- >> neil: winning the state.

if you don't finish in the top three, would you be disappointed. >> we are going to win three-fourths. >> neil: possibly fourth. >> maybe. we also have a chance of winning. the other thing it does is we are going to have a debate on saturday. it's really important who is in the debate and who we want to tell the rnr, the republican national committee is not disenfranchising the voters in iowa. it'll be held in one week based on polling which is never so accurate as an actual election. >> neil: then you go to new hampshire, let's say you do what you say and hope here, what do you have to do there? >> same thing, build on the momentum and try to turn the youth vote out. i don't think trump is a conservative. >> neil: even ted cruz said that

if he wins, he might be unstoppable. >> people are still going to try to defeat trump. he comes from a perspective, i am great, i am rich, i will fix things, give me the power. >> neil: maybe we are labeling and i'm going to increase -- >> that's not the same tradition that many of us are. i come from a limited government perspective, balancing the budget, taking away executive power. if you go to a trump rally, you hear some leader who is going to take care of us all by fixing things. >> you don't like him, do you? >> i disagree with his philosophy. >> neil: well, it'll raise the iq a couple of points.

>> that was just mean. you've never been snarky mean? >> neil: no. >> different perspectives. >> neil: would you support him if he's the nominee? >> that includes anybody. i sure hope we do better than that. but what i would say is there really is a tradition, our founding fathers wanted to give the power to the congress. i don't want an all-powerful executive. >> neil: even if you were the president of the united states? >> absolutely. i'm the one on the stage who doesn't want power. unfortunately, it has for some people, but i'm the one who would not change because, you know, president obama didn't think he was going to be a surveillance state, he cite -- criticized surveillance states.

if you really want to challenge a man, give him power. i think it's a true test of statesmanship if you want to give it up. he didn't become king. >> neil: you're right about that. could have been longer than two terms. >> that's an impressive trait for a leader. >> neil: i notice that you and ted cruz were close friends, are you still? >> you know, we come from the same wing of the party. there are certain issues, for example, collecting phone records. he wants to collect 100% of the cell phone records. >> neil: you were always in lock-step on these issues. whatever happens, are you going to go to liking each other? >> there are some other differences, criminal justice is a big issue for me, criminal

justice. >> neil: is it important for him to win the state? >> iowa gets the ball rolling. you don't need iowa, new hampshire, i'm just going to start in florida doesn't work. it's difficult, it's difficult for people like rubio who don't have a route to victory. he has to wait somehow to florida. i don't think you'll make it if you don't win primaries early. >> neil: pizza also the enticement to get them there? >> pizza because beer is illegal. when we get back east, we will go to pizza.

>> neil: have you ever used adel songs? >> no. we have a waste basket we toss them in. i believe in copyright. i'm trying to support the artist right to make a living and they complain about using the music. maybe we shouldn't pay if you're going to play. >> neil: rumor has it. okay. senator rand paul, still going strong in the state. campaign till the last second through the event. how many events do you have this week?

>> innumberable. >> neil: stick around, you're we're the hottest young company around watching esh ideas! >>got it. we slow, we die. >>what about cashing out? no! i'm trying to build something here. >>how about using fedex ground for shipping? >>i don't need some kid telling me how to run a business! i've been doing this for 4 long months. >>fedex ground can help us save money and deliver fast to our customers. not bad, kid. you remind me of a younger me. >>aiden! the dog is eating your retainer again. let's take a short 5-minute recess. fedex ground is faster to more locations than ups ground.

>> neil: you always hear if ted cruz is a front runner, he's going to win the state. he became a front runner a few weeks ago and then after getting pounded in a debate, he dipped a little bit. the press is still on the opponents for ted cruz to win. others who say actually quite good for the party like the next fellow governor rick perry, the former governor of the fine state of texas. >> good to be here. >> i talk today your successor abbot. would he make it a fact that he's not committed at this point? >> governor abbot knows ted cruz very well. he was solicited for general per him. as you said, i think there is a

close relationship there personally and professionally. again, everybody gets to pick when and who they're going to support it. i made a decision to support ted cruz after sitting down and know him well. i am very confident, not only is he going to be ready to be commander in chief on day one, he's going to be a person who has an opportunity to bring people together who may be filled des -- disenfranchised or minority voters, washington ain't paying attention to them and he knows how to make that work and work in a good way to make government smarter, a true believer in the constitution, a conservative of great consistency. >> neil: you know what always comes up, governor, politics, both, what we hear in bob dole

yesterday that he is an agitator, ted cruz doesn't have a single friend among the 54 republican senators and he could hardly reach across the aisle when he can't stay with people on his side of the aisle. john mccain hinted at it that a cruz nomination would lead to a republican defeat. what do you make of that and the agitation toward senator cruz? >> yeah, i don't think they have spent time with him. i took the time to spend quality hours and days on both personally and on the phone getting to know this individual and what i found was a totally different than the character that i had seen in the media through political lens. i heard someone who was a really committed conservative, again, but he's also one of the best listeners, niel, you know what a

great gift that is. and he also knows what he doesn't know, i try to tell people, i want a president of the united states who understands he doesn't know everybody, he's going to need to bring very capable people around him and to give them the authority and focus and philosophy and authorize them to go, you know, impact those areas of government that they are very knowledgeable of. that's what i found about him. i want a president who knows what they don't know, not somebody who knows it all. >> neil: i like that. who knows what they don't know. i booked a career on that. let me ask you in all seriousness how this factors out. expectations are everything. i don't know who sets the expectations, maybe we in the media do. but if ted cruz doesn't win this state f he sees donald trump pick up new jersey as well, i think even ted cruz has said it would be a fairly difficult guy to stop.

do you agree with that? >> well, certainly senator cruz didn't get in to come in second or third and i've seen his ground game, i've seen the organization that he has there and i think he's going to do quite well tonight and, again, you know, this is a long game. we go to new hampshire and then south carolina, then we have this huge hcc, referred to with florida and alabama, i think, georgia, texas, all of those around the first of march. there's a lot of game to be plaid here. there's up and down and back and forth. you want to win iowa. it's important for a number of reasons. >> you're right, on all of the above. >> good to be with you. >> neil: we have so much going on. a lot of people go about eye --

iowa caucus, caucuses, you have to know where to go and have to have patient, you can't go vote and leave. it takes up to two hours f you're in the democratic party you're arguing back and forth. 15% for a given candidate. they have to recaucus, regroup and get that support going. it takes a while but it is iconic and pretty much americana and it is here and it's okay. it's pretty cool. more after this ♪

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i call her, my lady. wasn't too happy eight years ago. you think it's going to be very different now. >> i think it feels so differently, niel, i was here in 2008 and i was worried and i'm worried by nature because for her to win tonight every one of her supporters has to caucus. some people say, it's too cold out, we are going to have a storm. my worry that her supporters won't show up. >> neil: his are more engaged then hers. >> i don't buy that at all. bill, chelsea and hillary clinton, just wild. >> neil: you think she'll pull this out. polls are tight. if she were to lose, would you be worried? >> no. no matter what, hillary has a ticket out of iowa and new hampshire.

>> neil: even if she loses new hampshire? southern states, more typical democratic demographic, you think she does better there? >> i think she does better there because i think that most democrats believe that a person calling themselves a socialist will not win a general election. >> neil: even a socialist than democrats these days? >> well, i believe in includive -- inclusive capitalism. which president turned over a surplus to a republican president? >> neil: a lot of those trade deals. or does she? >> those are different times and it's right to say it's not a third obama or a third clinton. >> neil: you think she's going

to win tonight? >> i think she's going to win if everybody shows up. >> neil: thank you, my lady. we will see.

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with trulicity, i click to activate what's within me. if you want help improving your a1c and blood sugar numbers with a non-insulin option, ask your doctor about once-weekly trulicity. and click to activate your within. >> i believe the american people want a consistent conservative. we are not going to nominate someone who position is the same on amnesty ancillary clintons bid that is not what republicans want. neil: you heard ted cruz they are chatting with me that i am ted cruz, the real and only true conservative in this race. some of his opponents on the republican side might disagree. that is the speech in iowa. governor, do you think that republicans are going to zero when i'm the most conservative choice because right now they

seem to be gravitating to donald trump who is not the most conservative choice. >> well, first of all, it is game day. whether it's game day will actually see where the voters of iowa city and. neil: are you saying it is game day is today? >> it is game night. that's the way i look at it. we are in scrimmages and debates now. the voters are going to vote. what they are looking for is who are the candidates who are expressing their concerns? who are the aspirational candidates to make sure there's more opportunity for our children, for families and american businesses are not per new-line. donald trump has done a lot and is getting a lot of new people interested like marco rubio has a great opportunity of unifying our party and getting more young people and independents to vote for his positive message.

so as we get to this primary day or caucus day in iowa, which is important. it's number one, i look at -- my father's first job was at morningside college as head coach there. that's how we look at game day as well. what you see as a lot of people rallying towards marco rubio. the more people who meet marco and his positive message, the more they like him. >> i know you are a big supporter of rubio. one of the things that keeps coming up if he were to place their retention of up to second year, he could have a significant momentum going into new hampshire. he said this much to me when i caught up with him the other night. >> ted cruz must win iowa. as much money as they put into

iowa. he must win iowa as far as marco is concerned, a good strong finish is fine because it's well-positioned in new hampshire and south carolina and nevada. it's hard to say hello come out. it might be very, very close. traditionally they say there's three tickets out of iowa. you probably heard that. maybe this year there is for. with as many evangelical voters, some of the more social conservative candidate that finished down probably won't build and make it to the next days. it is a heard process and i think marco rubio is very well-positioned to again unify all of the republicans, but that is not enough. we need to get independence in young people and others to join the effort and marco has a very positive constructive agenda for the future. neil: we'll see what happens. governor, always a pleasure. thank you very much. in the meantime on game day we

have the presidential candidate supporting ted cruz. he doesn't agree with everything. all the criticism from the likes of establishment. bob dole another's ear divisive figure, couldn't get things done with his own side. would he think of that? >> i've got to tell you, i was much everything you do. senator dole -- that interview he could've been reading talking points provided by the white house for crying out loud. he called senator cruz a conservative. no he's not. there's not one position senator cruz has said is not firmly in the republican platform of the last four, five cycles decided by republican voters. he said that senator cruz had closed on the united states

government. come on, senator dole. that was barack obama who close the government and it just burns me up when i hear republicans blaming other republicans for doing -- neil: you might be right on all of the above. why don't you think he's winning any popularity contests with for lack of a better term mainstream republicans who just don't seem to like him? >> i hope i don't have to remind you of this do you recall ronald reagan didn't win any of the popularity contest? >> you're absolutely right. >> i hear from a lot of them who say they knew ronald reagan. ronald reagan was a friend of theirs and they say ted cruz is no ronald reagan. >> a lot of folks say ronald reagan was a friend of theirs when they opposed him when he was challenging gerald ford or when he was trying to move the party to a clear conservatism.

by the way, i've got some breaking news. i can't tell you who exactly is going to win although i think it is senator cruz. i can tell you who i think clearly is lost and it's the sort of governing class of the republican party, the movers and shakers who quite frankly have completely missed the mood of the country. neil: who would they be? >> well, the folks that run the party meetings that call the shots in congress, et cetera, if i hear one more elected official say to me kerry, whereas is all this anger coming from? seriously, they don't yet after what has happened to this country in the last seven half years for the anger is coming from. there is a feeling out there and the reason senator cruz is doing well, probably white donald trump is doing well. there's a lot of people who want a different direction.

they will elect a republican who will in fact not reverse what has happened to the country >> i thought their gravitating towards donald trump. >> i wouldn't say it's just anger. people that are filled with angst i think we are on the edge of the cliff that are worried that the american dream is not there for their kids right in america. ted cruz is getting a lot of those. that person is. i suspect rubio is in donald trump is. neil: always a pleasure catching up with you. >> great to be with you as always. neil: just to put things and respect. as they get ready for a storm in these parts, you can really kind of more than just/going back and forth. all of this at stake tonight in the big caucus beginning with

our coverage at 8:00 p.m. we are scheduled to be on air until midnight, but it could go leaders appeared four years ago we went until 2:30, 3:00 in the morning. that was via rick santorum wasn't confirmed for two weeks thereby not really taking full advantage of being the victor in the first in the nation voting state of iowa. hopefully it doesn't go quite that late tonight, but if it does we're there. if you look for the same coverage and other financial channels, good luck. most are rerunning shows that were awful in their first incarnation. we figure if this is about your money and your life, we owe it to you to stay up late. besides, they are providing catering. stick around. at ally bank, no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like grandkids equals free tech support. oh, look at you, so great to see you! none of this works.

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try and do they talk about you

as the passion of voters to come out. the consensus seems to be bernie sanders supporters. very, very big crowds. a lot of them galvanized by an odd choice to be this years new barack obama, but it is what it is an ben cohen says it should be no surprise. cofounder of ben & jerry's which single-handedly made the huge conglomerate it is thanks to chunky monkey. enough about that. very good to have you, then. >> hey, how are you doing? >> you have a special backer. it is called burning your name. can you explain what this is all about? >> sure. it is a participatory flavor. you open up the lead and what you see is a huge disc of

chocolate covers the entire top of the pie. below that is plain mint ice cream and the huge chocolate disc represents the major majority of the financial gain in the end of the recession that have gone to the top 1%. the way you deed it is you take your soup spoon and you whack that chocolate is. the ice cream softens up a bit to mix it around and there you have it. bernie's yearning. >> smashup 1%. you are part of the 1%. >> i probably am part of the 1%. i still believe in fairness and justice and equality. >> you walk the walk. people don't like bernie sanders he's done the same today as back then.

whether you like him or not, your can list in but are you surprised. does that surprise you? >> well, when you say like a rock obama in terms of doing better than hillary -- >> more in terms of getting people to the polls and passionate supporters, huge crowds. >> yeah. i think it is a similar kind of thing. people are tired of the usual political beat, the usual politician who looks at the polls and figures out what they need to say to get elected and then says it. they want somebody who is real and authentic and who is saying what they truly believe. you know, i think americans are

angry and they have a right to be because the system has been rigged. the average american can't get ahead because system has been by the politicians who are bought and paid for a wealthy corporations and wealthy individuals and they are serving the needs of those donors. neil: do you think the answer to that is this widening the republican and the democratic administration of lake is to really go after an attack the rich and i will forcibly narrowed the gap. is that really the answer? >> you know, it's not really taxing the rich and closing all those tax loopholes that politicians have given to their donors. >> what is the fair tax rate?

bernie sanders is back advocating a 90%. what is a fair tax rate to ben cohen? >> where people need to understand is that when we talk about a top tax rate, it is a marginal tax rate. when you raise the top tax rate, it doesn't mean the average person is going to pay whatever rate -- neil: you are quite right. what do you think it should be? >> i don't know. you know, to be quite frank, for a person who's wealthy, who's got enough money to meet all their needs, what is the difference what it is? neil: it makes a big difference whether you're paying for that or 60 under 70%?

>> how many are you going to buy? >> are you saying that one of the 1% are not all buying 5% megayacht. if you had the billionaire crowd out of it, what is the top rate? >> you know, i don't know what the right number is. it is a number that allows their country to provide a college education for all those people who deserve to have one regardless of income. it is a number that allows us to rebuild our infrastructure and create millions of jobs by doing that. it is the number that is needed in order to get america working again through working people. neil: bernie sanders must realize to do a lot of the angst you just spoke about, college education, benefits that you can

get all that money with the superrich. you can't do that just going after the rich. do you agree with that? >> is talking about social security, people earning over $250,000 don't pay any taxes -- and a social security taxes. neil: he was talking about a middle-class tax hike as well. he did positively give far more back in benefits than the government and help from the government did what they are paying in. are you okay with that? a lot of people don't have a great tier of faith in government and how it goes about running and doing things. >> what this is in relation to is his universal health care plan. and what it shows is that the

homeowner has a net gain that today you are paying whatever you are paying for your own health insurance. under this system you pay a tax that pays for the health insurance but it is less than what you are currently paying. so you come out ahead. neil: all right. you've had great success. of course he's all about the company but you still have great influence over what products are. does it bother you so many wealthy people, so many 1% or is like your ice cream? >> no. i think anyone can love our ice cream. neil: so if you knew that ted cruz and donald trump were eating your ice cream by the bucket, you would be okay? >> i say more power to you and may your life be sweet and

happy. neil: ben cohen, thank you are taking the time. i enjoyed it. >> attacking you, neil. neil: ben & jerry's cofounder ben cohen talking about bernie's yearning, which is getting a great deal of attention. good ice cream. a lot more coming up including the battle of endorsements. people trip over themselves to get endorsements. which ones matter and which was don't? after this, big coverage tonight at 8:00 p.m. on the spy network. we are there for you.

train to get what you deserve. >> i think ben is probably forecasting he may not do so well tonight and is taking a shot at donald trump. it is a mix. you've got to inspire. you got to be entertaining if you are going to inspire people. we don't want it to trend so far that it becomes the car -- and swirled and we are living in it. neil: the argument as it might be more like that of donald trump were to pick up new hampshire, ted cruz. do you agree with that and do republicans have to wrestle with that guy they were wrestling with as the likely nominee of your party?

>> i think if donald trump wins in iowa he will be nearly unstoppable. there's a chance to stop in most of the candidates will get out of race and the non-trump actions will have to rally around a hybrid candidate, someone like marco rubio. if he went to nine in iowa and hampshire, he's want to be on a roll. no question about it. >> governor, you have seen the rise and fall of politics and money can play a big role. you talk about candidates who would have to be reassessing their chances probably because the donors are reassessing giving them money. how much does that come to play? >> well, the elections are marketplace in the market as measured by voter support but also the ability to sustain financial services. a few candidates have enough residual money to maybe get through new hampshire, but after that the question is called for most of the spiel at any competitive level and i think it

will narrow down to probably donald trump is one other alternative. the money part clearly the walls closed and very dramatically for candidates who don't do well in the first two contests. neil: governor, back to the entertainment issue, ben carson put it more bluntly than some of the others that a trump candidacy nomination would be dangerous if the trump people come back to me and say we bring an fire more than we take off. in other words, whatever voters that wander away, there are those who are coming in who never voted before but a lot of republican voters. what do you make of that donald trump is creating a whole new possibility for republicans? >> i think there is some truth. it is true as the old saying goes. we get the politics of culture demands and the culture is changing.

attention spans are changing. there's a higher per unit on entertainment. with all due respect to dr. carson, his tentative nature is one of the things that limited his candidacy. i certainly respect him and he's got incredible gifts and talents. but the nature in today's media world, particularly talking about big bold dramatic issues doesn't cut it with many voters. he's certainly got a lot of entertainment qualities, but is, but it's also put his thumb or finger on a very runner for a big part of the country. he's more than just entertainment. he's also testing that could animate people to show up tonight or even in the election are cross parties with a normal or typical republican might not. neil: governor, you and i have spoken often over the years. i have a crack at the rate that i will say this is a huge grain of salt that i don't think it's a writer blasting. who can get the logjam broke in?

who can get all off that is waiting and piling up in our inbox that we have to get that done and it can explain part of the evangelical support he enjoys. a lot of people are saying just to get stuff done. move things forward. this is not about conservatism or who is the most credible republican candidate, or just get things moving. what do you think? >> heart of what you just said is accurate, but i would add he's entertaining, says what a lot of people think of the cases but don't dare say regardless of whether it's right or wrong. he's got the ability to quote, unquote get things done which means cut deals with scares conservatives. but it might animate other people who are more pragmatic in that regard. the republican party is fracture and somebody who can appeal across not just the party across the rest of the electorate seems like he can do that.

donald trump brings more than just a simplistic he's an entertainer or somehow tapped into get things done deal maker. he's a much more clever and this is about much more than just that. neil: i agree with that. governor, always a pleasure. thank you. >> okay, neil, my pleasure. neil: another fact or tonight is the weather. the voting starts at 7:00 p.m. when people begin the caucusing process of all of this. it would appear there would be a big old snowstorm. that will materialize later into the evening and effect of the journalists who will be trying to beat this day. that is pretty much it. you probably ask neil no one cares. well, i do. america, here my fears after this. d on our disciplined approach to find long term value.

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neil: albright. des moines, iowa expecting a big snowstorm. i'm looking at this stuff. i don't see it. it might have been, but i think it is moved up to like 78 degrees. probably not. but we are waiting for that. predicting a snowstorm that way to go, janice. you look like you're right on the money. >> listen, i told you overnight

tonight and i was concerned for travel tomorrow. neil: you are wiggling all over on this one. what is the latest? >> the latest is you have a beautiful day behind you and des moines, iowa. we all -- neil: you are telling me is getting nasty later. >> if you just want to look at your window and give the forecast, why am i on with you right now? neil: i ask myself that all the time. >> so hang on. neil: tommy what is going to happen and when. >> i'm just kidding. today the calm before the storm. we are going to get the caucuses under way. everything is fine and again it is all about the fox business anchors trying to get home tomorrow. that's the most important thing. here is a future radar. looking good across the hawkeye state until overnight tonight. 9:00 p.m. wednesday the snow and rain sneaking into the southwest part of the state and again

overnight into tuesday where we had the blizzard warning in effect with winds in excess of 30, 40 miles an hour will continue well into tomorrow and wednesday. neil: what does the temperature had to be? a lot warmer than that now. later on tonight the temperatures will plummet. >> temperatures will go around the freezing mark. des moines is right on -- neil: at a 78 now. >> the 30s and 20s as well. this is a big lizard, my friend. i am sure. neil: the camera crew believes it. actually, they'll believe you. >> here is the key. if you don't show up tomorrow to do your shift, who is right? neil: that is a very good point. i could be doing it from here.

>> are precursors on the bill had ashley webster filling in. neil: really, did they? that is just ashley. what are we looking at? >> lizard warnings in effect from kansas through nebraska and iowa, des moines right here where neil cavuto is, the center of everything. you are under winter storm warnings. several inches overnight tonight in an additional three to five tomorrow and tuesday. mr. forecasted precipitation. the cutoff year with with mark arena's end. north of des moines and west of des moines is an all snow event. six to 12 inches. some areas could get higher amounts. blizzard condition is what we are concerned with and that is going to start overnight tonight. when gas 6:00 a.m. tuesday. 40, 50 miles per hour. that is why we think you'll do some jell-o shots tonight and have a day off tomorrow.

neil: briley? i write because you don't want a get jell-o shots. whatever happens. >> i would love to see pictures. okay my friend. neil: thank you very much. connell, rescue us from what seemed to be some bumbling lawsuit. 1972 was the last time weather played a big role in the caucus. >> we have our best people on the research. i am with janice on this. forget ashley webster. i hope you get stuck for a week. we will make this combo coast to coast. good one. we have done the research. it almost never matters. that's the first thing i should say about iowa. they are used to the cold weather and are bothered by it. 88 they had eyes, didn't care. 72 that was legitimate impact. senator george mcgovern that

year at a major blizzard. snow, 60-mile per hour winds on the 24th of january. coffee stay with the following day. it was so bad that two people died. some caucus sites had to postpone for a day cumbersome for two days and many say mcgovern was helped out by that. establishment supporters supposedly stayed home that year. the government had a lot of antiwar supporters. they braved the elements and finished with 22% of the votes surprisingly close at 35%. technically he was there because the uncommitted voters for number one. stuff a strong finish helped to propel the nomination. the role of the weather people could argue with over the years. it was an awful storm. and it did have an impact on the caucuses as janus rightfully pointed out in the terrific forecast we don't expect anything that dramatic. we can all hope. i hope things go well for the

broadcast. you're right. i don't. neil: you are in horrific human. ed muskie did end up winning the iowa caucuses. he did up winning new hampshire. he was the last guy who won the two races and didn't go on to win his party's nomination. go back to 1972 for that. some of the historical nuggets we share with you on fox business network. we will be on reruns or skillet commercials. ask yourself, do i really need that? what are you thinking? more after this.

neil: time for your fox business brief today. we start with yahoo! because we have a report of "the wall street journal" planning to cut jobs and closing business unit. how about chipotle. the e. coli outbreak over. the question becomes to the company put this behind a common stock up a little bit today. a number of pins timber related stocks breaking out in today's hitting my time highs. the donald would tax a lot about the all-day breakfast which seems to be helping.

constellation brands is another all-time high for that stock. facebook jewish throw in as well. about $115 a share. stocks are down. rough day for risk assets as well. commodities following.

neil: what should the margin

every need? would he think think it should be? >> i don't know. and now, to be quite frank, for a person who is wealthy, we'll have got enough money to meet alternates, what is the difference what it is? neil: maybe just me, but it makes a big difference what i should be. but it is like a shooting target right now and anyone who gets a top rate of 40% per month were 45%. played for the affordable care act. it is a moving target among liberals and particularly bernie sanders stands as they should be sitting at l.a. higher. rich benjamin with fellow democrat extraordinaire. where do you stand on this? >> well, neil. it is important to realize his

point wasn't just that the tax rates would be higher. they should be to close the loopholes on existing tax rate. neil: that is not what i asked you. i asked you on paper the statutory rate -- not everyone pays it. you are quite right. what he think the prevailing rate should be? give me a number. i beg you. >> me personally i believe should be 38%. when eisenhower was president -- neil: 38% is less than it is now. >> closed loophole. neil: so where it is now. mercedes, what do you make of the argument that the rich should pay more. where is this going? >> here is the deal. the top 10% of earners are right now pays 60% of federal income tax. they are paid far more than their share. it also has to do with the fact

that the more you tax these individuals, many of them are providing jobs. many of them help boost the economy all at the end of the day continues to break into what could be a potential american prosperity and that is where the socialist or does far to the left and walk our taxes and believe that the solution are missing the point. you are going to keep taxing but it also represents more government spending, more american dad. >> you raise a good point. there's a lot her creativity on the left for finding ways to get more money than there is to save money. that kind of irks me. >> i want to dispute the 68% figure that the guest says most wealthy people are paying. most wealthy people are smart and they figure out how not to pay 60%. i'm willing to dispute that.

neil: that is their share. >> what is their share of taking in the profit that are widely spread among peoples productivity in this country? to say 60% of their share of the tax burden is the same as 68% of their revenue on taxes because she is sane as though somehow it these money enable put it back into the economy. that is kind of a slippery slope that we on the left make. neil: what to make him a mercedes that the rich can afford to pay more because they are getting more? >> they are paying more. they are paid a chunk of the taxes. i didn't say they were paying 60%. their share of what they pay in terms of the people paying taxes, not individual space escape%. that is how much they put in the pot. there's many people who are not

paying any taxes was the weather. can you balance it out with tax reform which is much needed. to keep putting the burden on the wealthy i think really does not solve the problem of how we are going to reign in spending. neil: i want to wrap up the whole class warfare thing. i think we succeeded. thank you very, very much. now the middle east peace. stick around. not really. much more. ♪

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the bed that moves you. only at a sleep number store. neil: a year ago at this time, jeb bush is the unstoppable force to have unstoppable funding. at the event at the hotel we are a nap right here, maybe not today. but who knows. things could change.

morgan ortega says with a. good to see you. >> i think it is going to be a long, tough race. when he looked at the past two election, the republican nominee did not win in iowa but they did win in new hampshire. the people at the infrastructure for the long haul. crews have a lot of cash on hand, jeb bush and marco rubio in a different category. neil: how would you feel if for trump to win it all? 's negatives are too high to win it all. neil: hillary is not exactly engender park territory. >> or 2% in national polls for public polls for republicans he would clearly have consolidated half the party. he's never done that. you have roughly 60% of the party that aren't satisfied. neil: what if he's bringing in more than a taken off? >> will see what happens tonight.

even if they went to new hampshire, there's only three campaigns prepared to go the long haul to go through super tuesday, making it into april. neil: on the democratic side, winning iowa and new hampshire doesn't mean you win it all. but it's been a long time. usually it's a ticket to the nomination. >> there'll definitely be a consolidation after tonight in new hampshire and i think each week is gone by, governor bush has gotten more and more endorsements in south carolina, nevada. were not going to have 10 people. you'll have a consolidation and eventually two or three -- one or two people compete in him which i think that poland could look good. >> marco rubio thinks he's going to win the so-called for lack of a better term moderate establishment crowd. not jeb bush. >> is concerning himself part of the establishment crowd now. neil: i'm actually supporting that. >> have no marco rubio for a

long time. he's a great guy. i chose governor bush because they know he's ready to be president. when you look at the primary cash on hand, governor bush and mark are rubio have roughly the same amount. they haven't been able to raise money to be competitive with the two of them. when you go into new hampshire, got crews, k. and bush all all in one point of each other and rubio has dropped four points in new hampshire. neil: she is right about this. things can and often do and will change. that is the big thing their grandpa was counting on and bernie sanders is counting on a sudden surge that shows their passionate supporters suddenly come out. stay with us after this. ♪

cut it out. >>see you tomorrow. ♪ . . . .

>> i think we'll beat 2/3, 3/4

of all of them. i think we outside chance of winning. neil: winning? if you don't finish top three or four will you be personally disappointed? >> we'll beat 3/4 of the other candidates. neil: that would put you possibly fourth. >> fourth maybe. i think we also have a chance of winning. neil: you never know. anyone's guess. we have "daily beast" senior politics editor. good to see you. >> good to see you. neil: anything could happen? any surprises. >> depends on turnout on both sides of the ledger, if bernie sanders gets young people out of new caucus goers he gets to go out to caucus he has a chance of beating hillary. same goes with donald trump. ted cruz is working with the 65 counties rick santorum won. he did the 99-count tour.

he did work winners do. we'll see if donald trump his caucus-goers to stand in a gym. neil: that is the thing. your passion has to match ire patiences right? >> yeah. neil: you have to be willing not to just go in and out and vote and stick around for a while. >> these trump supporters tend to wait in line quite a bit to get into his events. maybe they do have the tenacity. neil: is there any surprises tonight? rubio is urge ising at right time. rand paul hopes young college kids help him out. what do you think. >> rubio done a good job minimizing expectations. we hope we come in third. look at "des moines register"/bloomberg poll he is in third. that is open question. some lower tier candidates, rand paul we haven't seen enthusiasm we saw for his father four years ago. you have to wonder capture same votes his father captured couple years ago. neil: jackie, we'll hear a lot

more from you. thank you very much. that will wrap things up from here. trish regan to take you through the next hour. trish, anyone's guess. anyone can be accurate at this stage of the game. trish: i thought becky had interesting point how the trump fans are used to standing in line to get to see him. maybe they have stamina. neil: right. trish: you need stamina in these caucuses? neil: by far. they can wait long lines for waiting to appear at rally. maybe they can wait this out. maybe we're missing that. trish: neil, a lot of people are a little confused by this whole process in iowa. not like new hampshire where you get to go to voting booth and cast a ballot and calculate the results. iowa is whole breed on to itself, yes? neil: right. it is because i think to jackie's point you just don't walk in, vote and leave. first of all you have to know where your precinct is. a lot of new voters, we're told up to ha