let's not continue down this road to socialism. that's our show. see you next week. reason. >> tomorrow newt gingrich. >> more spring fishing. >> happy valentine's day. >> when is valentine's day? >> wild swings. not just hire, but everywhere that's fueling new worries we are swing back into a new recession. are we? this is bulls and bears. the bulls and bears this week welcome to everybody. gary bear, are we looking at another bad recession? >> i think we are every single sign i look at whether you look at macrosigns from gdp growth,

household income, demand for oil, whether you are looking at the financial sector, the charts, i can't see one positive sign out there. normally getting brief pullbacks, you see, well the tech sector is strong or net flicks is still doing well. i go through every single indicator i look at. i can't find one that's positive. i think the market is hurting. i definitely think we are headed to a recession. we are probably long overdue. i think this could be a painful one. >> the argument is, we don't look as lousy as the rest of the world, at least retail sales were up last month, right? >> that's right. we're the tallest leprechaun. that's not saying a lot. there aren't many signs out there. the middle east is in crisis. more important than the middle east being at war.

you have countries like qatar, sauce for the first time they can't fund their own government so they're selling a lot of tear stocks, it's killing european banks and twitter, which they own a lot of so you see a lot of negatives going forward. most of the signs i don't think we are headed for a consumer recession. we are certainly in a corporate recession. we had three straight quarters of declining profit t. capex is the lowest spending we had in five years. we are seeing a lot of bad signs. i think we will be a growth but a meager growth going forward. >> meager is not good enough. chuck, what do you say? >> i blamed it on donald trump. i was watching him. he said he will make everything great again. i'm sure everything will be fine. i was looking, car sales are up. we are creating jobs, oil is at an all time low. we have slow gdp growth i'm not coming on this show anymore. i would say it is slow growth.

the funneling of bernie sanders is going to millionaires and billionaires. people like me being left out. i think that's the problem. >> that's why we're in a precarious position. this has been the weakest recovery since world war ii. people's wages weren't growing. so we were already starting from a very weak position. >> if there even was a recovery, you can make the argument there wasn't a full recovery. one number that has me worried. the number that has me worried sventure spending in silicon valley. it was 19 billion in the fourth quarter of 2015, down billion the first quarter of this year. that's scary the tech sector was like the last bulletproof sector. if you look at analyst reports, you average them out. they'll tell you there is a 25 to 35% chance there is going to be a recession in the next 18 months. okay. that's, you know, that's not the preponderance of it. that's sort of like a weather

forecaster saying, go outside, there is only a 25 to 35% chance you will get frost bite. that's not 100% chance. it will be nasty out. i think it will be nasty going forward. if are you a consumer or somebody who works. you got to batten down the hatches. when you vote, you have to think jobs, jobs, jobs, that's the thing that will get hit. >> the one thing i have to sayt the bernie sanders impression. >> billions and billions of jobs. you don't look abroad, it's hard to say things are falling apart here. there is serious recessions in the emerging market to some extent in europe they have a banking crisis. for us, i say we can dodge it. it's been a long time. i still think the consumer at home has seen the benefits of the world's problem. car sales was brought up.

mortgage rates are pushing a dollar in some places because of a huge foreign problem hopefully won't spread and destroy america. so at this point i think you can sit tied and enjoy the benefits of a collapsing world. >> 27 days in a row with swings up 200 points or more tying the record during the financial crisis in 2008. how does that not scare people, scaring the individual and the consumer into pulling back, which creates the recession. >> absolutely. look. it is a scary time. a lot of times, not every time, when we have a market like this, it does signal recession. i feel i'm in my 12th grade debate team. i want to pick up rebuttal to some of the others. we mentioned retail sales growing. yet they're at the slowest year-to-year growth rate, slower than 2013, 2014 second poivenltd

unlike other depressions or god forbid depressions, the fed is out of bullets, beside, negative interest rates in asia, across the board, they haven't worked. so even if the fed had some bullets. there is nothing they can do right now. chuck talked about jobs. my gosh, the full employment rate, u 6 number. labor force par tis spacing at a 40-year low or near a 40-year low. again, even the positive points are kind of eh, louse qui. that's why i can't get entruciastic about this recovery so to speak. >> hoarse something certain, somebody else will be in the white house next year, if you blame wall street, who does it benefit? it would benefit the democrats? >> yeah, it would and for some

reason miss clinton has gone towards bernie sanders instead of away from him. they both towing are saying they will punish corporate america which is not good for corps america one of the reasons capex spending may be at a four-year low and you talk about uncertainty. gary b, for just a second. why is gdp continuing to go down if we have full employment? the only answer can be is those jobs were replaced by jobs not as good. we are seeing our middle class absolutely destroyed. i agree with you on the fact, this is not good, we're seek a slow retail growth. we're seeing some growth a. job growth. it's not good jobs. at least it's growth. >> is that what you areking about? >> gary, no, iej fought putting lipstick on a pick here trying to make good.

it's not very good. >> so i take that as an insult. thank you. susie, who does this lousy economy benefit come move? >> well, if there is a republican candidate. i hope there is one, who just talks about jobs until he turns blue in the face every time he comes on, oh, he will talk about jobs the same way you see a democrat, now there is only two of them. you think, oh, they will be bashing wall street. if we the republicans can get a candidate that talks about jobs, jobs, jobs, that's who will benefit from this dangerous combination of fear and pessimism equals sell-off in the stockmarket. >> this is what i do. what you see is anxiety out there the problem is we haven't seen real wage growth in years. >> that gives rise to donald trump and bernie sanders. people are sick and tired of being sick and tired. they think those guys over there are the reason. sure we need some business. the middle america, there is not as many of them.

there is a frustration there you have a job. some have two or three jobs. i think they're driving the market and our political process. >> final word. who does it benefit come november? >> mike bloomberg who hasn't entered the race. the other guys will look like they're so weak. mccain started to lock look he's out of his element. >> that is what everybody on both sides looks like in a serious economic problem. nobody cares about foreign problems. they care about our economy. >> that will play to someone who knows about business. talk about how great he is. >> thank you all. that was very succinct. i'm shocked, almost breathless, thank you. charles payne is in for neil this week. what have you got coming up? >> donald trump tells us what he thinks of the new video, showing iran making a mockery of those captured middle eastern sailors. free phones and free lawyers for illegal immigrants? they were not really free. guess who will pay, see you at

the bottom of the hour. >> thanks, charles him up here first, see this minimum wage rage, what if i told you it wasn't at last week's republican debate but at this week's democratic debate. we report all the candidates and job creators hide. when you go the extra mile to help business owners save on commercial auto insurance,

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donald trump: "pedonald trump..." look past the boasting and you'll see right through him. he supported partial-birth abortions. his phony trump university? accused of fraud. he tried to seize private property to line his own pockets. four bankruptcies... and small businesses screwed over. poll after poll shows him losing... to hillary clinton. if trump wins, conservatives lose. right to rise usa is responsible for the content of this message. building's developers accused of cutting corners on construction. back to more bulls and bears.

>> call them democratic party crashers. protesters in milwaukee demanding a $15 minimum wage before thursday night's democratic presidential debate a nationwide mandate would be the worst thing for jobs? >> absolutely, why not 15, why not 20? it's an arbitrary in they have chosen. i'm fixing it long term and take unions and politics out of it i was in seattle. i paid $50 bucks for parking. why is it so much? he said with the new minimum wage we had to raise everything in seattle. you are seeing it hurting the rental car business, the parking business. it's going to technology, which is what will happen with these jobs, it's going to technology where there is not a minimum wage. >> gary b businesses say we will

not open stores in cities with $15 minimum wages. it kills jobs. why don't people listen to them? >> they're doing the opposite. they're not opening them, they're closing them in china town, in los angeles, the residents there were dying to have their wal-mart there. they love their wal-mart there because it provided a real need. it had to close because they couldn't afford the $15. you know, john talked about seattle, jorng of course one of those billionaires who can't afford $50 for parking. but somehow, the point is restaurant prices there have gone up 7 to 8% t. prices are passed onto the consumer. whether you look at anecdotes or studies, $15 minimum wage, everything above mark will hurt the economy. >> hillary clinton wants $12 for a minimum wage. even that's not good enough for these union backed, union funded protesters. >> you need to back you a. i make these union signs.

i make the tv ads for the politicians, it's called don't be hurting my job here. back to this point, you can tie it to the other conversation we were having because of no real wage growth and a slow recovery, there's lots of people that have lots of minimum wage jobs. i say all for them. if you can demand and get more, if you get more money, you are going to spend more money. we can continue to have this debate. i think as long as working people are trying to demand it and let their voice be heard. it's a good thing. they may not always get it. i can call you a campaign sign. call me up. >> there is a difference between demanding it and mandating it. when you force businesses to make this wage, it's a job killer. >> i agree with gary and john. let everybody raise the minimum wage. this is like letting your child have all the halloween candy the night of halloween, you say don't do it. eventually, they have to learn the hard way it's bad for them. you let them eat the candy, it's not pretty.

let the wages go up and the jobs will vanish. there will be fewer jobs. next time they'll protest for training, not for these low paying service jobs but higher paying high quality jobs. that's what they should be protesting about. more jobs, not higher minimum wage. >> global wage stagnation is not going to be curable with a decree by the government on what the wages should be. >> that said, it is a good insurance policy against bernie sanders and that element. there is always a risk in capitalism that people will resolve. you will have more damages than a slightly artificially high wage. which is what we are talking about here. i say, bernie sanders within be leading hillary clinton if obama put this index into innation years ago. it would have quitted that element of the debate down. i say you need it. maybe not 15. a lot of companies cost high unemployment. it's better when other people are involved.

>> gary b follower. >> i would ask chuck one question. where do you think the extra money comes from? from business owners. they have less money to build businesses and hire people. >> ah, the become legionaires and millionaires, let them go. >> tell that to the pizza shop owner. >> cashing in is just over an hour from now, eric, what do you guys have coming up? >> the liberal media making fun of the donald and his supporters. really the job of the media. why sanders and trump are attracting huge crowds. see you at 11:30 on "cashing in." >> we'll be watching him up here first, some of our guys are calling for it. now a senate panel is pushing it. will the fan plan to fight isis online propaganda work? on the floor! everybody down! nobody move! on the floor!

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>> to the digital fight against

isis. a senate panel fighting isis online to counter its propaganda. facebook announcing it is stepping up efforts to remove profiles linked to extremists. you have been calming for this. is it enough? >> i don't think we can throw enough money at this problem. i think it's a part of private efforts to do it. it's stupid money, nothing will happen. fighting isis messaging has gotten very sophisticated is not a job for bureaucrats or admin madson avenue. this is a gob for people who have been radicalized and left and people experts in at risk youth. those are the people going to isis. hopeless young men who are being promised a future. the messaging has to be sophisticated in presenting another kind of future. i think facebook and trths all soeth e towing wisely with smart and focused efforts.

>> chuck, something the fbi is doing is not quite sophisticated. >> that's right. the fbi started this goat game. it shows young children not to go down the propaganda highway by destroying a goat. i think more so than that it should be a private public thing. i said this before. i went online last week and looked at peanut butter treats for the best bulldog. which i have. everywhere i turn, if they can track me getting dog treats. they should will able to track these people that want to destroy our company and get rid of them. >> is this government effort gary b worth it? >> it sounsd like it's ripped from the page of the onion. one bill counterprevents online radicalization. first of all, they just doing that now. second of all, i bet isis is scared of their planning session. the other one, chuck's point,

they will go to colleges and have the students develop counter-narratives for teenagers and young adults. oh my gosh, i better that quakeing in their boots. i'm not sure we're addressing the right problem. they sound like a wompgy thing we will -- wonky thing and which will get nothing. >> the companies like facebook fear the government. as to they are stepping up. >> the white house met in early january. it's a one of page request as gary b was playing. i played the goat game. it made donkey kong look like war crap i'm sad at the final thing. >> final word,py dear. >> this is the daim same government that spent hundreds of thousands on the obamacare website and had to fix it. classified e-mails, they

couldn't organize a rock fight much less something to do with computers. put a bount kwli on it. pay anonymousit. >> thank you all and a special thanks, to susie and chuck for joining us. thank you both. coming up, don't foefrth valentine's day tomorrow for your at ally bank, no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like bill splitting equals nitpicking. but i only had a salad. it was a buffalo chicken salad. salad.

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at ally bank, no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like social media equals anti-social. hey guys, i want you to meet my fiancée, denise. hey. good to meet you dennis. >> prediction, gary b. go. >> what does valentine's day

mean? chocolate. hersheys up 20% by this time next year. >> john. >> health care are remain a hot sector. >> valentine's day,old man sax, doing terrible this year. you can still get in on the currency shares eta up 15% this year. >> bye. >> this video that came out from iran, showing the sailors, some crying. what do you make of that? >> i think it's disgusting. i think they're disgusting. secretary kerry should be absolutely shamed. >> donald trump ticked off after iran releases a video of u.s. sailors crying in captivity. after iranians were seen mocking those same soldiers. hello, everyone. jerry women is says why aren't

we smacking them with new sanctions? also, ben stein and adam lashinski. you saw the bulls and bears guys, jerry, you are here. >> listen, let me tell you. we have to do something. this is a case where i don't think donald trump is wrong at all. we need to reimpose those sanctions. why? not because of the embarrassing pictures. right? we paid $1.7 billion to get four hostages back. this is out of control. this is a country that wants to be the state sponsor of terrorism for the planet. these are bad guys. >> somebody argued they became more emboldened, it was so obvious obama wanted to get the deal done at any cost. >> i have always been open minded with having dealings with iran. why is that? they have a secular population aside from the mullahs and the loon my tunes that run the show.

the problem is the obama administration cut its deals and does its deals with the devils over there. these are bad guys, sponsors of terrorism. they hate america and our open inside, our detente with them as opposed to the detente with russia. which didn't open it up, it is different. they take our money and give us nothing in return. >> we let israeli down with this deal that starts the clock off to even getting a nuclear weapon. >> this is probably the jam of the worst policy in the history of the united states. nay hate us. they want to kill us. they begin every day session of their parliament by saying death to america.

death to israel to think we are trusting them of building weapons of nuclear power is almost unbelievable to think that obama is doing this is unbelievable. i don't think we should start a war or do sanctions over there but we should have never ever in a million years have done that. let's call the whole show off. >> adam, after the sailors returned, initially, john kerry lavished so many much praise on the iranians. i'm not sure since these videos came out, though. >> i'm glad i have a segment i can say i completely disagree with what every one of you said up to now. first of all, ben, he didn't bow down to the mullahs. that's an unkind and unfair way of putting it. we did an important deal. now we can question that deal west virginia we got was a stand down in nuclear arms. that's important and i just want to make one last comment here

which is that donald trump linking these videos, which are these videos are not important. the agreement, let my make my point. him making that language shows that he's behaving pet lantly. that's fine for a campaign or for a television show, but not when are you the president of the united states. >> adam, are you saying that iran isn't trying to humiliate us in the world? >> yes, i am saying that. >> thank you. >> adam, do you think their trust worthy? >> it doesn't matter if i think they're trust worthy. i don't care if they try to humiliate us. there are far more important things. >> duping they're trust worthy about the nuclear deal? do you think they're trust worthy about the nuclear deal? >> i think that we have the place and the opportunity to -- >> gary k, it's interesting that adam feels this strongly about this because i think many people

believe this was a mistake going in. it's only been compounded since we signed the dotted line. >> look we have done deals in the past when people hated us. the issue there is nothing in this for us. you end up with tens of billions of dollars john kerry said they will put something out of terror. two words when that's all said and done. these are the same types of people they hate us now. they will hate us after. >> the thing is they have already violated several provisions of this already. when do we have the guts to say, hey, let's pull the plug on them? >> they're still taking hostages taking people off the street, holding them in captivity for no reason at all. we idly sit by and do nothing.

if only for that reason we should be taking a stronger action. >> the soviet union and the soviet chinese were more trust worthy than the iranians. we had tons of measures to quantify whether they were living up to agreements ronald reagan called russia an evil empire. iran is a disgusting country. >> ae dam. >> that is a great point. i remember sting made that. even throughout the cold war, there was a push-pull between communism and capitalism. but we never no one believes once iran gets their hands on a functioning nuke, they aren't going to use it, some thing that will be catastrophic to the world. >> let me be clear. these are bad people. the question is how do we

conduct foreign policy? one we have an agreement in place we hope will work. two, we maintained village lance on them. so did the israelis. >> one at a time, guys. >> i think you isolate them. you impose sanctions. they are alone in the world. >> ben, here's the thing. adam was offended when you said president obama was bowing to them. i happen to think you are right. go ahead. >> he actually did bow, i think. >> for one thing being unkind on a talk show is hardly a sin. secondly, we have no idea what they're doing down there. nobody, look, they were revealing new nuclear facilities up to the last minute that we didn't know existed. we den know what they're doing. >> hold one second.

our own administration said they have been lying for years about tear nuclear program. now all of a sudden they become nice people. they will not stay with that nuclear program because they got tens of becomes of dollars. no one emboldens them more than financial forward. >> i said the country is disgusting. it's not the country. it's that disgusting government that we're cutting a deal w. it's like cutting a deal with the nazis. it's like right up there. >> it really is. leave it right there. >> a great spirited debate. hillary and bernie promise to make more illegal immigrants legal. we are finding some illegals get free smartphones and free legal advice. guess who is paying for all of those freebies. you owned your car for four years,

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more sophisticated u.s. missile systems in south korea. now back to caputo on business. >> i believe that we have got to pass comprehensive immigration reforms. we have got to move towards a

path towards citizenship. >> we have to get to compehencive immigration reform with a path to citizenship. >> hillary clinton, bernie sanders, making it clear if they get to the white house, illegal immigrants get to stay. families trying to sneak across our border free smartphones. now, some lawmakers want to different them free legal advice. i guess maybe to fight deportation. gary k, how much should packs theyers be paying for? >> well, look, we should give them a barko loungeer and free streaming. look, it's out of hand. they call it government funded. it's not government funded. it's taxpayer funded. it's a never ending cycle. they will let anybody in any time of day off our backs. when i hear they want to give a lawyer's too i never get speechless, i think i can. >> you know, ben, europe is having and i piff my across the

continent. >> big time. >> they're trying to get rid of some of these migrants. it's so wired. they have to go through a different start of baptism by fire if you will. we're not learning from that. >> well, what's happening is that this current is becoming a big family. where we all are, quarrelsome. a family into a basketball and different languages. many are hard working fine wonderful people. there is no such thing of a country that doesn't have control of its borders. i don't mail a billion cell phones to mexico. fine with me. having them come here and just overwhelm the sunt country that is a terrifying country. we v don't want to be a thanksgiving dinner where we bring in 100 homeless people. god bless them. i don't want them all sitting at my table. >> a phone and what about a free

car? i mean, come on. here's what i see going on. isis actually becoming the extended hand of the smugglers. the coyotes. we will bring you in here, give you a little song. you won't have to wear an ankle bracelet. you here illegally. it's unbelievable to me what we are giving thooem these people. >> it's nuts, economical 4ri. where is this money coming from? >> it wasn't a right wing nut in a welfare state. hey, a smart guy, clearly not from the right wing. ly say this, governor huckabee made an interesting point within he was running for president. he said we have to understand if they are coming here to escape tyranny and with middle east debt or torture or debt or coming here for free cable. i'm telling you, that is a big issue here. we don't have the resources, given the fact that this country

has underemployment, given the fact that blue collar wages are going down. we don't have the resources to integrate ga zillions of people and poor people. >> once you start having any porous borders, whether it's compassionate or not, does it send a signal out to everybody? >> you can't have open borders on a welfare state. >> adam, i know you are probably thinking we are compassion fatless or soulless, but there are several reasons why people are starting to think that these policies open border policies are nuts. we don't have an open border policy. we don't have a migrant problem the way the europeans do. what we have. >> you have lawyer, you will. >> what sanders and clinton said, they were echoing the comments of the radicals, george w. bush and barack obama. they said we have all these illegal immigrants and the prudent thing to do figure out the ones that should be sids,

make them sid the ones that shouldn't be, send them home. >> so they can vote democratic. that's what this is all about. >> there have been a ton coming through central america over the last few months, they want to do those things for them. >> yes they have. >> there's got to be a point where it has to stop somewhere. it's getting out of control. the pictures of what's happening in europe right now. >> the way to stop would be to start by having comprehensive immigration reform. which we didn't let -- we didn't let president obama do. >> it's a term i hear a lot. i don't even know what it means. >> it means passing a bill. as i said. >> a bill for what? >> george w. bush had a plan in place to give the people who had a demonstrated record of being legal and having been here a long time and having families to make theme citizens, because that's how we can move on. >> most of the country -- >> that's not what we're talking about adam with the greatest respect. we're talking about the illegals, not the legals. >> many of these people are an

illegal. >> we're not talking proekting the border, controling who comes into this country. not seduceing them, putting on a red carpet, come on, everybody, come on in. disregard everything. >> charles, if i may, i know this gets to the lawyer thing is the latest thing with health care with driver's licenses, you know the question, do we want to treat these people humanely and try to figure out a way to deal with the problem or do we want to be belligerent and say, go home? >> sometimes do you want to destroy america? >> we are a nation of immigrants. >> adam, someone will knock on your door, you open it, you say, i'm association we can't let you in. we got to leave it there. in washington right now, some are celebrating a $55 billion government surplus. that's what we had last month. but some here say put thrown those noise-makers. one month does not make this go. we'll be right back.

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only in d.c. would they congratulate themselves for this. the treasury department just t reporting a federal budget surplus of $55 billion in january, but with annual deficit set to more than double in the next ten years and our national debt expected to keep exploding.

gary kay says we should be crying, not cheering. explain. >> there are not enough rubber rooms for people who think that one month of accounting demagoguery is a good thing. look, the cbo, who usually is nice, came out and stated that we're headed to $27 trillion in debt which means we're going to -- and god forbid, we go to recession and revenues start to head south, it only gets worse. anybody who thinks the debt and deficit situation is good news, can't help them with that. >> you just say eventually, we'll have to file for bankruptcy or something. >> people. >> i'm not as worried about it as i am for example about my wife or dog or son or myself. but i'm worried we are going to enter default and to add, if we go into recession, there's going to be a push for expanded deficit spending. that's going the make deficit

even further. there's no possible way of getting out of this hole. we are in a very deep hole and i want to say this so adam will love me. the republicans dug this hole and the republicans are to blame for a very large part of this hole. >> quite a bit of this hole is dug in the last sempb years, but we are where we are, right, and now, what's the solution? >> look, you have to live within your means. president is still putting f forward drn. >> what? >> h$.1 trillion and we're still spending money like we are making it. it's ridiculous. we've got to get our arms around this debt, pay it and do something else. >> what's going on in the political world. i think it's funny like the way they cherry pick this. it reminds me of hedge fund managers who look at their performance over three months.

i think there's something president oba positive to be said that economic growth is picking up modestly. not great at all. >> it is? >> and the, the republicans in congress aren't holding spending, so this is somewhat of a positive thing. >> although you know what? we could say, hey, sequestration might have worked. get a sort of symbol tlas little extra cash, they want to spend it and get rid of the stuff that was working for a minute. >> it might have worked. and tarp might not have worked. we never, we never will know. i'm kind of with charlie. i choose the say, hey, let's be optimistic about the fact we had a good or whatever it is and i don't disagree about the future. we have severe problems. what's wrong with celebrating. >> medals for everyone. cakes for everyone. parting gifts.

gary and charlie. >> going out for a drink in five minutes. >> we've got some names to at ally bank, no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like grandkids equals free tech support. oh, look at you, so great to see you! none of this works. come on in.

at ally bank, no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like vacations equal getting carried away. more proactive selling. what do you think michal? i agree. let's get out there. let's meet these people. to gary. gold came out of the bare market in last week or two. i think it's got another 25%. easy. >> gld. >> xlt. a consumer staple sector fund. these will do better than other

things in bad times. >> ben. >> spiders. hold on. it hurts sometimes, but you've got to hold on. >> i'll tell you who never hurts. david, he's next. after his big win in new hampshire, bernie sanders promising to help the poor and middle class with government programs. >> we are going to make public colleges and universities tuition free. i believe in a medicare for all single payer program. we must strengthen and expand social security. >> and there were a lot more after that as well, but some saying our big government programs are exactly what's hurting the middle class and having more will make it worse. who's got it right? welcome to forbes on fox. let's go in focus to find out with steve, rich, michael,