tonight as well as tom and danny this evening. this has been historic moment. ashley webster, my thanks to him as well live from london. i will see you tomorrow on "the intelligence report" at 2:00 p.m. it could be a wild ride for these markets. trish, over to you. stuart: trish, thank you very much indeed. good evening, everyone, welcome. this is real horse race. it has been back and forth all night between those who want to remain in the european union and want to leave. this is important for britain, europe and yes for america. issues they're voting on over there, very similar to issues we will vote on here in november. control the borders, make your own laws for your own people and distrust those elites. your money very much in play. america's money. how the brits vote will make a difference to your 401(k). all right.

that's the preamble. let's give you the state of play as it exists right now. we have roughly, trying to squint over the board, 8.6, 8.7 million votes to leave. 8.2 million to remain. bottom line here, is that the leave camp leads the stay camp 51% to 48%. and trend is towards the leave camp. how about the results here on america's financial markets? you're looking on that on the left-hand side of your screen. almost call it a bloodbath. the dow will open tomorrow morning if it stood right now, down 500 points, nearly 3%. go to sky news for a second for another result coming in. >> 87,000 -- >> bristol votes for remain by a comfortable margin. 50,000 votes. this is nigel faraj. >> the dawn is breaking on an

independent united kingdom. [cheering] >> just caught him there. that is nigel faraj, one of thed leaders of the leave campaign. he conceded stay campaign would win. not so, nigel. i dare to dream dawn is coming up on independent u.k. look at more of this. [applause] >> we are fought against multinationals. we fought against the big merger banks. we fought against big politics. we fought against lies, corruption and deceit and today honesty, decency and believe in nation. i think now is going to win. [cheers and applause]

stuart: 51.1% say out. 48.9% say stay in. nigel farage, one of the leaders of the leave camp there saying he believes the leave camp will win. back to effect on america's markets. we have all-stars with me. peter kernen, goldman sachs, liz peak, columnist, fiscal times. our own ashley webster in london. liz macdonald with us. peter, you first, a bloodbath tomorrow, down what, 500 points? >> i have to say wall street missed it entirely. they really put profit ahead of principle, that is what they missed. remain camp was being driven by dire predictions and they were not focused enough on wall street on nationalism, on sovereignty on issues of britain first. stuart: is that justified, liz peak, a 500 point drop for dow industrials because brits look like they will vote to leave? >> i think in the short term, yes, as peter was saying impact

of this has been overstated from day one by those advocates remain. that was fear-mongering. this is sort of where we are right now. offset there will not be any raising of rates anytime soon in america so. stuart: as a matter of fact, treasury yields are falling as we speak. british pound by the way has fallen out of bed. it is most volatility trading day ever for britain's currency. at one point it dropped 10 cents. that is enormous amount. it went from 1.50, to $1.40 and now a $1.34. that is drop, liz. >> market authorities would step in to do circuit breakers and to calm volatility. we're hearing that from the chicago merc. stuart: watch this please, back to sky news. result coming in from wales. >> the total number of ballots

counted was 169,745. [speaking in native tongue] >> the number of votes cast in favor of remain as member of european union was 101,788. stuart: let me explain something. cardiff is in wales. therefore two languages have to be used, english and welsh. that delayed response. 101,000 in, 67,000 for out. that brings 9.8 million out. another revision out, slightly less for the in crowd so to speak. it is very tight race. very important, what is emerging here is the turnout. remember this is actual votes counted. there is no electoral college votes here. it is not one politician versus another. this is the total number of

votes counted throughout the country for the entire referendum period. that's why turnout is important. if in your area you get low turnout and your area favors exit that is bad for the exit people. see how it works? every vote counts. that's why we're looking at vote tally right now. left-hand side of your screen, bloodbath when the market opens tomorrow if the results hold and the leave campaign wins. what else are we saying about federal reserve? liz: can imagine federal reserve officials will come out to calm the markets. we're hearing market regulators stepping in at start of the trading day, chicago merc to calm volatility. a third of european bonds lost their liquidity as of trading right now. we're, i'm getting information from wall street trading houses on market action you can watch to expect tomorrow. stuart: they will step in to take some kind of remedial action to stop volatility, basically the chicago people?

there is already talk there. you can expect other regulators may step in as well. stuart: ashley webster is in london for us, he has been there all day and all night. there must be a mood of shock at the moment, right, ashley? ashley: absolutely. only people on the streets at 10 past 44:00 in the morning, conveying the shock. as you watch local media, nobody expected this. bookmakers laughing right now because everyone was bets on remain camp. certainly a shock. you mentioned turnout. that is a big deal. in scotland, turnout was less than expected. around 67%. that hurts the remain camp. scotland is firmly for the eu, as is northern island and as is london. we have london borrows to come in. by all accounts three to one margin in favor of staying. things could change, stuart. certainly at this point it appears that the leave camp is ahead. if they can continue to do this,

when we get ready to begin the business day tomorrow, it will be very interesting. george osbourne the uk treasury secretary said he will have to seriously consider suspending trading on the london stock exchange. interesting to see what happens there. also banks, expect lines at banks. we've already seen that at atms. people perhaps panicking just a little bit. stuart: want some more. what about the treasury secretary? liz: new numbers coming in. more than 20 million votes counting according to itv. remain, 9.8 million for remain. 10.2 million now say leave. stuart: what was that about ashley was saying there, treasury secretary says he might take some remedial action? do we have anything on that? liz: he is talking about market regulators in england may step in. stuart: in england. >> they might suspend trading for period of time. stuart: explain, peter, why is the market down so much because after vote in britain?

>> these black swan events always overshoot. i expect central banks across europe and united states intervene. they will spend a lot of money but that is very hard. what is going on, wall street doesn't like to be surprised. when they get caught off-guard, volatility results. we'll have extremely volatile day tomorrow. we had the conversation over past month, wall street really gotten this wrong. because they have missed, gone with dire warnings. gone with dire forecast. they missed central ingredient driving british people. >> by the way, not just wall street gotten it wrong, markets in the u.k. pound at near high for the year after being under pressure much of the year. basically everybody was talking to themselves and markets did well. so they all assumed that meant the vote was going in favor of remain. kd of an amazing development tonight as a result. stuart: now, how about politics? if this result holdings the exit

campaign, the leave campaign hold, what does prime minister cameron do? he is obviously in very difficult position he advocated position to stay with votes going against i am. >> liz: to the point he says great britain leaves, this is win for isis. he has gone that far saying that. i think this also has implications here at home for hillary clinton. if we have volatility in our markets and could hit markets that hard. stuart: wait a second. liz: if it hits economy. the markets are one of the leading economic indicators, confidence in the markets as well. stuart: okay. we said at start of the show the issues that are being debated and voted on in england right now are very similar to the issues we will vote in on november, okay? >> primarily immigration. stuart: if they vote to leave does that help donald trump who is somewhat similar, somewhat similar to the leave campaign politicians over there? >> i think sort of the similar precedent to when maggie

thatcher was elected in the uk and started a conservative revolution and which followed two years later with ronald reagan. stuart: you think there is parallel between thatcher and reagan in 1980? >> i do. stuart: and england and america today, really? what is this all about? stuart: that is wishful thinking. >> maybe. but it is about people not having confidence in the elites as you say and bucking the trend and anti-establishment vote. there is a lot of parallels here. obviously immigration is sort of single big issue we both have in common. many other issues including sovereignty. stuart: what do you say? >> as political weather forecaster i say more storms are coming. basically the rhetoric is very similar, not just between the donald trump campaign and what you're hearing from the separatist its but also if you look elsewhere in europe, the euro skeptics, many of these 2countries, they have had a terrible year. they have been fraught with not just immigration issues but

migration issues. this has great predictive value in the eurozone and united states. stuart: i think is the beginning of end of european union. that is my personal opinion. liz: we have other news. leader of uk independence party, nigel farage says david cameron should resign immediately. >> he may not. one thing it takes two years, if they indeed vote to get out of the eu, there is a two-year window where they are erms of the exit. david cameron suggested he wants to stay on to manage some of that. stuart: with us now, from england. robert phillips with us. business editor of "the sun" newspaper. britain's largest selling program. welcome to the program. we're looking at bloodbath on america's markets tomorrow morning. we had all the forecasts it is real difficult time for the british economy if indeed they

vote to leave. what do you say, rodney? >> it has been extraordinary, extraordinary evening has it stuart. stuart: yes. >> when markets closed yesterday we thought it would be remain vote. what happened overnight is unprecedented. leave as massive question mark what happens. we're stepping into the unknown. i think we'll see huge volatility on markets and pound tomorrow in england as well. stuart: there were forecasts if the brits decide to leave it would be real catastrophe for the british economy. do you believe that the? >> a lot of big guns came out and said that. mark carney, bank ever england said that. david cameron said that christine lagarde said that. the predictions we will enter recession if there is leave vote tonight. certainly whatever happens, we're stepping into the unknown. that is the -- stuart: hold on a second. listening the result in west

oxfordshire. >> remain was 35,200. >> west oxfordshire. >> number of votes cast in favor of leave was 30,435. 30435. stuart: you saw the result there. that is west oxford shire. that is narrow victory for those in remain camp. still 51% out, 49% in. rodney, you're still with us. we have yet to hear a lot of results from london where we understand it will be a heavy stay, remain vote. could that swing things around and change this result? >> sure, that's key. i think we start remain winning slightly and, a lot of big cities and places like wales which came out in favor of leave. there will be a swing again. is it enough? is london enough to swing it back towards remain? we don't know.

very exciting in about 3 or 4 hours fate of britain and world is. stuart: rodney, one more thing. the british pound, we started off today, earlier at a $1.50. it is now at $1.34. that is real tumble for anybody's currency. what do you make of it? >> that, it is extraordinary. i don't think we've seen anything like that since, for decades, if ever, or since britain left the exchange rate in europe in 1992. that is incredible. we'll see a lot more volatility during the night. days before referendum people are stockpiling euros and dollars in event of a leave. who knows how low it will go. extraordinary, isn't it. stuart: real fast. you're with the sun. you had this extraordinary headline on front page. basically you guys wanted to leave the european union. are you happy or a little

worried about what you have done? >> i think as a paper we were very forthright in our views as were other papers. yeah, i mean as a paper we thought that it was best to see a control back for britain, away from brussels and away from the bureaucrats. so i this as a paper we'll be happy if there is a leave. stuart: okay. let's see a smile. roderick, you guys won. looks like it. thank you very much. appreciate you being with us. want to bring you all up-to-date with impact here in america of this trend in the british vote which is towards european union. stock markets will be way down tomorrow morning. if this trend holds. 500 points down for the dow jones average for example. about 2, 3 percentage points down for all major indicators. price of oil is tumbling and i mean tumbling. down about 4% at moment. that puts it back to 4dollars per barrel. where are we with that.

47.70 with that. interest rates in america are tumbling. yield on 10-year treasury, way down. go to this gentleman at sky news. good forecaster of this election. >> latest forecast is just trimmed that ever so slightly to 52 for leave and 48 for remain. so, the last run of results that we've put in there slightly assisted the remain cause as much as it narrowed the gap with leave. but it is -- stuart: this gentleman on your screen at the moment is a academic. he is employed by sky news. he has computer models. he runs election results thus far through his computer model and comes up with the forecast on left of your screen. his forecast currently is 52 out, 48 in. in other words a four-point difference favoring the out camp. liz? liz: bookies have been swinging back and forth. bets fair, odds of leaving 89%.

also are tracking turnout is stronger than it has been in a general election with 72%, 74%. stuart: that's huge. >> people voting with their feet. stuart: on bookie's, that is total reversal from what we reported on "varney & company." liz: 89% said leave. stuart: peter. >> when you talk to people in the leave camp, many appreciate the economic risk they're taking. they're not going into this with their eyes closed. stuart: they're not voting on pure economics. they're voting on emotion, aren't they? they want sovereignty, they want control of their company. >> i think what was missing from the whole, frank frankly i don't think cameron connected with people. what was missing aspiration and possibilities with europe. they went with uncertainly, doubt, bullies. that lost. stuart: look at on your screen,

$42 a back up for price of gold. >> peter, i also think they don't trust forecast of economic gloom and doom. there was survey taken, people voting foreremain, basically trusted independent mf and world bank and bank of england. the people voting for leave had no confidence in the forecast. 36% trusting bank of england. 62% not trusting them. those are at soon niching numbers. they don't think they get it right. guess what, they haven't got epit right. stuart: liz, that reaction on the screen do you think that is very short term reaction? >> i do because of this. there are two big issues because of england. one is trade. many people including myself pointed out they have a trade deficit with the eu. are you kidding me that the eu will not try to re-up those arrangements as quickly as possible? by the way the same thing with the united states. we are going to be very eager to rebalance and to refocus trade,

renegotiate another trade agreement with england because they run, we a surplus with england. i don't see trade, it will be bumpy and uncertainty but i don't see that as big negative. stuart: i think there is big negative there what i think break-up of europe. >> that is issue. stuart: whole ballgame of europe changes dramatically. this is what you were talking about, peter. >> yeah. stuart: if europe untangles or faults to pieces, i hate to use the use the word collapse, that is not great for america and bad for the european economy. >> we have to tech discuss with liz what referendum mean? it is not a binding deal. it is agreement to get divorce. some people said they had to get a two year headline because of article 50. i don't think this any way gets negotiated in two years. there will be remaining lasting

uncertainty in britain. for the u.s. i think this could be huge buying opportunity. i look for some great down stories. this is wray to get in with both feet. stuart: rodney, phillips, from "the sun" in england? i believe you're still there. >> sure. stuart: i have a statement from farage, this is big victory without a shot being fired. on social media given a hard time for that. what do you say? >> sure. i understand hearing that as well. that has been said. it is unfortunate turn of phrase what happened last week with the mp in england jo cox being shot and killed. i'm not surprised there has been a backlash against those comments farage maybe get far ahead of himself. he hasn't won yet. far to go in this night. stuart: one question, prime minister cameron is he finished he is done soon? >> he hasn't got long left.

he will not go tomorrow, people always thought if he was going to lose this election he would have weeks or months left. he at the end of his rein if he loses tonight. stuart: what do you have on the bookies? liz: 89% of leaving odds, this bookie bet fair, 94% odds britain leaves. moving fast. >> bank holiday, any talk of a bank holiday tomorrow? that seems to me something they might be considering. stuart: hold on a second. show me that shot right now. sit on sky news. they're shortly going to announce that birmingham has come out with its results. what was that again? night might be leave. stuart: birmingham might be for leave. this is very important. birmingham, very large city. a lot of population. if they vote leave, a large number of votes going into the leave camp that could nail it

down. listen in for a second please. >> limited result obviously, disappointment. -- stuart: this is birmingham you're looking at. that is a city in the very center of england. it has a very large asian population. and i don't think that has anything to do with the vote quite frankly but nonetheless that is the makeup of that the city. they are about to announce birmingham voted to leave. that is a very big deal. i suspect, liz, that will make bookies go further in favor of the leave camp. >> within minutes the bookies raised their odds of leaving, stuart, to 94%. stuart: look at bottom left-hand corner of the screen, vote totals, percentages at moment. look at that, the outs have 11 million votes, bottom right. we calculate if they get 16.2 million vote in the outcamp

they have won. that is the tipping point. pretty close, peter. >> i think they're close. i would say mr. farage what you british is acquired taste. i think that comment is way out of line. stuart: agreed. >> he ought to be a little more gracious what appears victory. this is historic night if it goes that way, heading your head up high. stuart: mr. farage made himself look foolish half an hour he conceded.

which have y stuart: huge central population. large number of votes cast. they could still swing it towards parity in and out. they could swing it, rest of middle england which supposedly favors leave. so at this moment the projection is, that the leave camp wins by about 4%. that is projection based on computer models. nobody is calling this. simply saying projections are of a 4-point win for leave. any comment, peter? >> i would say if you look back at history of england in eu, really always been a la carte player. when they had a chance to play along in the euro they said we're not going to be in the euro. when they had a chance to be in schengen exchange, no thanks.

three or four times they had have had a chance to embrace judicial and some of the security things in the eu. they turned it down. i think if you look at it, there has been kind of a tilt away going on for a long time between england and the eu. stuart: joining us now i think is sebastian gorka. are you there? >> iam, stuart. stuart: glad to hear that. now i want to hear about, something we've been mentioning last 20 odd minutes. that is this. if brits indeed leaving europe we think that leads to the unraveling of european union. it hastens it. it speeds it up. are you in agreement with that? >> i think there is a couple of scenarios here at least, stuart. i think there could be a very rapid unraveling as you say. there will be deaf solution what several people -- devolution, what people are talking about to a, kind of like a smorgasbord,

where individual nations get to choose the -- stuart: seth, hold on a second. we have southhampton ace results. watch this. >> under the european union referendum act of 2016, having been authorized to do so bit regional counting officer, that's me, i give notice that i've certified the following as results for the southhampton camp area. total number of ballot papers counted was 107,665. the number of votes cast in favor of remain, was 49,738. the number of votes cast in favor of leave, was 57,927. and there were 110 rejected ballots papers. stuart: you heard it right there. thatthat is a margin of 8,000 in favor of out. that is the southhampton vote. 51.6, to 48.8.

i think i'm squinting there. i can see it. that's right. needed to win. our projection is 16.7 million votes. they get 16.7 million they have 11.8 million now. we're on the way towards a result or a calling of this election, this referendum i should say, maybe within the next couple of hours. that is quite possible. sebastian gorka, still with me. i want to get back -- i think europe is unraveling and i don't care whether it is two-tiered, two-speed, i don't care, that thing is unraveling. isn't it sad? common? >> if you're asking me my scenarios, i will give you scenarios. if you want my personal opinion, it is dead. if this vote goes through it is as dead as a door mouse. stuart: thank you. now, what influence do you think that the migration problem, both in britain and in europe, what influence do you think that had on the british vote today?

>> i think that was the last nail in the coffin. look, i'm really very very leery of saying they are going to leave because i so want it to happen i don't want to jinx it. but if it does happen, that would have been nail in the coffin. i grew up in the uk. you know grew in the in u.k. sovereign at this was the key. faceless bureaucrat what a bangor can or can not be, people had enough over decades. i think migration issue tipped it. of course a rise of the party like u.k. ip, leveraged discontent with migration and with the economy and everything else, that was the final push. stuart: okay. look at the market, down 500 points for dow industrials. we have the u.s. dollar, we should mention this. u.s. dollar straight up. gone straight up against the

british pound and straight up against euro. peter kernen, former partner of goldman sachs, is that a great thing when the dollar strengthens? >> no it isn't. our industrials perf better under weak dollar. you look at euro as common currency for 2nations that have very little in common. that is a fundamental flaw -- sent 27 nations. basically the euro, is one of the things under enormous strain. haven currencies like the yen will enjoy a real push here. stuart: look at bottom right of your screen. 12.3 million votes accumulated by the leave camp, they need, our projection, they need 16.7 million. they have 12 point whatever it was. it will change in any second. i'm squinting. what is that? three. thank you, showing my age. >> is there universe which

england basically becomes like norway, part of the european economic area as it is called as opposed to eu? in other words they maintain trading relationship but don't have to buy in to all the other legal issues and rules and regulations and so forth. stuart: that would be ideal, wouldn't it? >> i'm assuming that will be a conversation that starts quickly, right. liz: happening now. norway, switzerland, singapore are not of course in the eu and happily still trade with the eu. should be noted euro is under strain as peter pointed out, breaking down below a buck 10. trending towards $1.08. it was trends -- stuart: euro was $1.35. >> now breaking below $1.10. stuart: euro was never $1.35 today. i don't believe it was, 1.15? now it is 1.08. pound. >> pound, sorry, thank you. stuart: euro is down. pound is down. >> thank you, clarity. clarification.

>> this is great day for the dollar. we'll not be raising rates. i do think notion of what england does is important here. if you look what the world bank said for years, milken institute, world economic forum they said england is great place to invest in and do business. that will remain. they will have a very tough time figuring out how they interact with europe -- >> europe will not cut their nose off to spite their face. >> absolutely not. >> they are running a surplus with england. >> they are selling volkswagens and audis and everything else. this notion, one of the things that -- this goes back to what you said earlier, the notion that you can scare at british people, i don't believe mercedes is pulling out. i don't believe these car companies are pulling out. i think we're stronger. i think we're more resilient. remember england is one of those -- europe was not founded by geography.

here britain is geography. this island. by the way, many generations fought and died for that land. stuart: thank god for the english channel. they say that frequently. liz: your point about breakup of eu? >> yes. liz: pugh did a poll of 10 countries. talking france, spain, germany, don't like the eu. majorities in those countries, spain, france, germany, italy, don't like how the eu handled the refugee crisis. stuart: sebastian gorka, i know you're still there. last question to you, are you happy with all the mayhem happening on world financial markets now that you got your way and looks like the brits will leave? >> look, i don't judge sovereignty solely upon the value of the pound to the dollar. so yes, this is the par for the course. markets like stability. the breakup of the eu will be a storm in a tea cup for the

markets but we'll get over it. we survived soros. we'll move on. stuart: we survived soros. yes we did. thank you very much indeed, sebastian gorka. everybody pay attention to the bottom right-hand corner of your screen, the total vote for the outcampaign is almost 12.7 million. we project that 16.7 million is the cutoff point. you hit that number and you have won. at the moment the out camp is closest to winning. just look at england, it is 51% out, 48% in. that is just england. we're talking about a united kingdom which -- so, there you have it. the united kingdom now is 51 to 48. we're still looking at major selloff in stocks. and big selloff in oil. big selloff for the british pound and euro. liz: british pound at 1985 levels, to your point. stuart: 1985 levels? >> liz: yeah. stuart: if i were to go over to my home country and bought a few

things they would seem real cheap, would they not? >> my guess a few things are for sale. stuart: whoa, steve moore is with us. steve, come on. i want to see you. are you on camera? there you are. what do you make of this? >> my phone is going crazy. the world is coming to an end. stuart: i know you want ad leave vote. looks like you might get it. did you expect this kind of reaction on financial markets because this is a bloodbath, steve? >> it is. let me say couple things. this is remarkable night. first of all people, investor markets just breathe, take a deep breath because i think people are overreacting to this. this is the not end of the world in a by any means. in a few days i think it will settle out. that is number one. so amazing despite fact every single political voice in the uk and in europe and the united states with very few exceptions,

all of the elite were against this right, stuart. were against the uk leaving. if this was revolt of the working class in britain and i see a real similarity to what is happening here in america actually with the elites are not being listened to by the voters, they feel as if they do want sovereignty. they do want independence. one last thing, you might want to think about, stuart. i think big loser here is socialism. i think this is, what is it margaret thatcher said. once you run out of other people's money it doesn't work anymore. these socialist economies only work when they can raid the banks of germany or raid the banks of england. guess what, these other countries saying we're not paying for it anymore. i think socialism is a big loser here. stuart: steve, i have to tell you, all of our viewers, independent television, itv news, that is other big channel if you want to put it like that in england, they said, called referendum results for the leave campaign. itv has called it, not sky, not

the bbc, not us but itv has called it for the leave campaign. percentage at the moment is the 51 leave, 48 stay. quickly steve, parallels, not with america's economy but with america's politics, steve? >> i see it trump phenomenon is similar to the phenomenon in england. all elites are saying donald trump we can't elect him president. it will be disaster. so many working class in america. wait, how can it be more of a disaster than we have right now? there is worker revolt around the world. that reflective what happens in england tonight. i think it might be reflective what happens in november in this country. stuart: let me tell everyone the bbc just called the referendum for the leave camp. >> wow. stuart: itv, bbc, they called it. that means the way they project it the leave camp wins. liz: more than0% of the votes

counted so far. there are still vote counting go far. stuart: turnout is astronomical 72%. never get that in national election. any kind of general election don't normally get 72%. >> one of the things went wrong here for the people advocating for stay, which as steve points out which was nearly every authority figure in great britain, bankers politicians, military, president obama thought it was better thing. a lot of their arguments sounded more in favor of eu and continuance of eu than it really was for the u.k. >> great point. >> i make a parallel with climate change. they almost did too much. it was sort of apolyptic, the image that they threw up. we'll absolutely crash and burn, there is no future for england. that is ridiculous. people got their backs up. they stopped listening and decided to challenge those premises. stuart: hard to fall in love with the european union.

how do you express real sentiment and love for this nasty group of people? liz: it is anti-democratic, four presidents, none of whom elected, setting rules for immigration and welfare state. stuart: you're looking at me like i'm neanderthal. >> skywalker, described washington as 68 miles surrounded by reality. who is more unloved than a eu minister. stuart: sends a huge message to american politics. sky news, uk votes out. sky news joined itv, bbc, now they're all saying projecting the out vote leaves. the get out of town vote, get out of dodge, they're predicting that they win. this is a sensation, ladies and gentlemen. this is something that was not expected. listen in please. >> this is going to be a vote

for out, how can you be certain? >> just looking at results when they come in, we put in result after result after result and model just simply keeps on telling us that there is a lead for leave over remain, and given the results that are still to come, we just don't think the gap can be bridged given the pattern of voting we've seen in the authorities that have already declared. we don't see any pattern emerging from those results still to come that can overtake the lead, the leave already has and will continue to build on the basis of the results still to come in. >> do you have any idea of the final percentage margin? >> well it is looking very much like in the regional 52-48%. and of course if that's true, and the model is pretty stable

at this point, that is a huge size of the proportion that's lost. that throws up all kinds of issues in terms of very, very closeout come, all arguments that will ensue in terms of why remain has lost will obviously follow on from this. >> that would be -- stuart: watching history being made as we speak. this is an extraordinary night for world politics and world economics and world diplomacy, if you want to put it like that. all kinds of implications here. the major news organizations in britain are all projecting that the out vote wins. in other words, brits voted by four-point margin to get out of the european union. this is shock. this was not predicted. britain's prime minister david cameron always in favor of a

stay vote. he has lost. looking at number 10 downing street, official residence of the prime minister. everybody is waiting to see what will david cameron say. news organizations project that cameron has lost this vote. what will he do? will he stay prime minister? will he remain head of the conservative party? it is up in the area at this moment in time. what happens to europe? brits decided to leave. us did that not encourage the breakup of the european union? surely impetus towards breakup of the european union. what about impact of here in america. we'll have a nasty slide on stock market first thing tomorrow morning. projection on left hashed side of your screen is for 500 point loss for dow industrials. that is about 3%. s&p, nasdaq, all the same, way, way down. price of oil is going to fall, maybe 5%, back to $47 per barrel. british currency, not going to use the word collapses but we're pretty close, from $1.50 to 1.34

doll. you do not see movement like that any major currency ever but you saw it today. the euro, that is the currency used by various members of the european union, that is way down also, approaching parity with the u.s. dollar, lowest level we've seen in many, many years. that's what is happening ladies and gentlemen. that is history. do i hear steve moore still there? >> i'm still here. stuart: am i right, history? >> you are. i disagree with you on one thing. i agree with almost everything you said but i'm not so sure this is the death of eu as you said. i don't understand, stuart, maybe you can explain this to me, why britain leaving means continental europe can not have european union? stuart: let me explain. >> i think that will continue to exist. you have to explain that one with me because i disagree with you on that one. stuart: i'm looking at polls, the pew poll, for example, there are others, which show parties are popular in continental

europe which want to change the structure of the european union if not get out entirely. marine lapen in france, for example. austria also voted very closely about actually not leaving but re-establishing what is the european union. it simply seems to me that if the brits are leaving and looks like they are, that gives impetus to all of those politicians and political parties in europe who want to do the same thing. >> so stuart, let me ask this question. to you then, because if that happens, what does that mean about cross-border crossings and so on in europe? you know, europe has common currency and all these things. are you saying all that will crash and they will go back to pre-1980, every country being independent with their own currency? you have to have a passport from one place to another? i think that would be very negative. stuart: look at terms of the exit vote. if britain decides to leave, and they have by the looks of it,

there is a two-year period where we, the brits negotiate their exit from europe. >> right. stuart: i would imagine something similar if other countries want to change their relationship to the eu. there would be a negotiating period. it wouldn't be a sudden everything changes tomorrow morning. it will be long drawn out process, difficult process which europe breaks up. last word to you, steve. >> the point i'm making which everyone is looking, look, europe moved in socialist direction. there is no question about that. i've been saying this for years and years. europe has to change or die, and that simple. now i think this is forcing action. i think europe will have to figure out whether they can still afford high welfare states, high taxes to pay for it. they're anti-growth, anti-business. i don't think they're sustainable. this bringing that day of reckoning closer. stuart: okay. we can agree on demise of socialism. i think we're both in full agreement with that one.

peter? >> look for a second. appears leave will be what happens. last big referendum a year ago with greece. they voted not to accept the european bailout. what did the prime minister say? the this is not my opportunity to are up turn europe. it is my opportunity to negotiate more forcefully and more strenuously. they wound up agreeing a few weeks later to the bailout, actually on worst terms for what it is worse but referendums, there are times when referendums are really just an episode that introduces, like a vote of protest. it introduces a very tough conversation. >> i think that's a very good point. this is not binding vote. it really remains to be seen how they will negotiate a, or he renegotiate. by the way cameron has been in favor of renegotiating the terms of their eu agreement for some time. because he is perfectly aware it

has been a negative for england in many respects. so i totally agree with you. kind of just remember that nothing is going to happen tomorrow differently. and that, in fact, we'll see, two years from now, how different their arrangement is. stuart: i want to go around the table. we think we know what impact on america's financial markets is going to be. they're going to be down tomorrow morning. i want to know if there sim pack on our american presidential election. is this british desire to leave the european union reflected in our politics here? is there parallel? what impact on american politics. >> rhetoric and words are almost precise lit same. stuart: the issues are the same. >> that seems like a bit of influenza, a wave offshore coming our way. stuart: for donald trump surely. >> i think this is opportunity, if donald can be presidential he will be in front of this trend. stuart: that is fascinating. >> underneath this and what is perfectly aligned.

stuart: go to sky news, knocking on boris johnson's door. knocking on the door. boris johnson, a leader of the exit campaign. listen to this. is he going to answer the door? >> potentially, mr. johnson could be the next prime minister of united kingdom. not sure whether he wants to answer the door at this early hour but certainly we've seen the likes of all night, we get impression that, one moreime. [knocking] get impression he is up all night watching results come in. we know his advisors are inside with him. i do need to give you, i do need to warn you there will be some flash photography if he opens door, a awful lot of photographers here with us. we'll take you to john craig, who is the at leave party and then come back if they open the door. john, to you. , can you imagine, if this were the united states, if that were

the united states, can you imagine knocking on the front door of one of the leaders of the party which just won a significant victory and, will he come to the door? it is about what, almost 5:00 in the morning in the london at the moment. i guess the guy is in bed. liz: may not be there. may be out celebrating. stuart: i mean you just wouldn't get that in america, would you? you would be stopped way before you got to the front door. down 600 points. that is three, nearly 4% down when the market opens up. >> we have market news. japan and nikkei, they kicked in circuit breakers. meaning trading halted in japan. stuart: that bad? >> yeah. stuart: so they have taken action to stop the drop in nikkei average in japan? >> that's correct. stuart: 660 points down for dow industrials tomorrow morning gold, look at that at bottom of your screens, up almost $100. this is profound reaction to the

vote in britain where the brits have voted to leave the european union. looking at vote tally. the leave camp has just over 14 million. projected cut off point for victory is 16.7 million. academics who have been following this, all of them suggest they will get the out camp will get to the 16.7 million figure. liz. liz: dow jones, reporting that mayor boris johnson a winner in "brexit" vote. could be leading candidate to succeed david cameron. stuart: he is not a member of parliament at this point. you have to be an mp before you become a prime minister. i think that is the case. >> that is something i don't know anything about, i have to admit. no question people speculated his very aggressive stance getting out of eu was all about his personal ambition to become prime minister. so that is not a new idea. we'll see whether this carries him forward. >> just think it all started

here in new york. stuart: that's right. boris johnson was born in new york city. he has american passport. i don't know whether his mother is american or british, i'm not sure. nonetheless, just a few moments ago, you may have seen a young lady knocking on a front door in britain. that was boris johnson's front door. the one on the right-hand side, okay? the one on the left is number 10, official residence of the prime minister. on the right, totally different part of town, that is boris johnson's front door. he is looking like, looking pretty good at moment. he was one of the leaders of the exit campaign. ashley webster, we've not forgetten you, ashley. i know you're there. what is the mood? ashley: feeling left out, stu. tell you what, boris, it is shock and awe. boris johnson is indeed a member of parliament. he represents ox bridge. very strong candidate to be new leader of the tory party.

where does david cameron go here? that is the big question. we wonder if he addresses the nation at some point this morning. making a statement outside number 10 downing street at some point. he will be very disappointed, frankly he lost either way because his party has been torn apart by this vote. 40% of the his cabinet broke from him to support the leave campaign. now of course, it appears by all accounts that he has lost anyway. so what he will have to do, it now goes to parliament, who will have to ratify the vote. he will invoke article 50 of eu rules. god knows how many there are of those. process begins disentertaining link the uk's business with the european union, as you pointed out, stu, that could take two years plus. more importantly what happens today on financial markets. will trading be halted online done stock exchange as was threatened by george osbourne, chancellor of exchequer. it will be a very, very

interesting day today. it is now five to 5:00 in the morning. the sun is up. people in the uk will be turning on their television sets and i think a lot of people will be shocked and surprised, stu. stuart: i can see that i don't think many people really thought that the brits would take this big step. i thought a lot of people thought when push comes to shove, you're actually making that vote, that you would say, stay, just in case. stay. because we are worried about the economic consequences. look at your screen. that is the nikkei average in japan at the top. trading has been halted. it is down over 1000 points of the they halted it at that point. they have these things called circuit breakers to stop a total free fall. they put the circuit breakers in place. hang seng index in the middle, that is the hong kong basic index, singapore at bottom, way down. biggs drop is the nikkei and dow jones industrial average first thing tomorrow morning down about 600 points. liz? liz: nikkei obviously reflecting

the fact one of currencies that is surging not only the dollar but the yen. that is going to throw trade on and off. that actually could hurt japan's economy because their exporters are so dependent on the yen not being terribly strong. stuart: peter you're a financial guy. did you expect anything like this? that is a blood bath. >> that is a bloodbath. in terms of central probation intervening. i expect government of tokyo will intervene. stuart: do what? >> spend a lot of money and not do anything good. they don't want to be haven currency. with abunomics, leeds making announcement. >> almost a million votes behind nationwide. go to telling me about disappointment of the smp.

what happens next. >> disappointment because we don't believe it is expectation of scotland to leave the eu. stuart: we missed announcement, leeds north of england in york shire. narrow victory. 194,000, to 1,892,000. that will not -- 192,000. that will not make a difference. currently leave camps has 14.5 million. 16.7 million has cutoff point. called the election, referendum that have already called it saying the leave camp will win. >> at that point when they called it that's when the numbers turned so terribly in the red. stuart: down 600. >> we have more news crossing. the remain camp, a spokesperson

says increasingly likely that people voted to leave eu. stuart: reluctance but accepting reality. okay. where are we now? we've got a blood band in our hands. midnight, 11:59 in the east coast. if you're joining us, you're looking at history being made. the brits have voted, the brits have vote today leave the european union and there's a profound financial reaction to it. stock prices all around the world down and down sharply. the u.s. dollar up against the euro and the british pound, we have the price of gold up about $75 per ounce as we speak. now, there are going to be profound political as well.

cameron, can he survive? no, he we wanted to stay in europe and he has lost the vote. how can lead the majority party when he lost a vote of crucial importance of the nation's future. odds are he's out. odds on favorite to take his place is johnson, and jonson is, indeed, a member of parliament. there you have it. it's midnight here in new york city and we are going strong and the vote -- the voting has finished, the results are known. we are going to leave, the brits are going to leave the european union. who better to join us than embassador, former embassador to the united states to the united nations. what do you make of this? what a shock? >> i am beyond static. i'm so proud of the british

people to stand up for self-government and way of life. the blood bath in the financial markets is in cause in substantial part by the bubble that the lords of finance in london and new york and other places live in. they simply couldn't conceive that the peasants would leave and they have. [laughter] >> there will be disruptions. let's be clear. the european union project was never primarily a bad economics, it was always about creating a european superstate and now one sixth of the eu economy says we are out of here. others will follow. stuart: mr. embassador, i think this may be a rebuke for president obama. remember he went to britain and appeared to the british people and said, you better stay in europe. if you don't stay, if you leave,

you're going to -- the back of the line. he actually use the british word go back to the cue in terms of rearranging trading policies. i believe that was deeply resented in britain and the votes to leave the european union, that sounds to me like a rebuke to mr. obama. >> absolutely, and it comes to the to the key point to americans, what should our reactions be whether we favored remain or leave, what should american policy will be. i think it's very clear. britain is our strongest ally in the world and it's our duty now to come to britain's side to negotiate immediately a free trade agreement with them to do whatever we can in terms of international financial markets, to help ease this transition out of the european union, that's what allies do. that's how we should behave and obama's arrogance in saying, well, britain will go to the

back of the cue, americans strongly support britain and have for decades and that's what our policy would be. i think this is a time in the campaign when republicans and democrats should reject the obama position and support britain's decision by its people. stuart: okay, when we talk about political change, the political change could be that prime minister cameron steps aside and johnson takes his place. that's pure speculation, but what we are hearing from sky news at the moment is that boris johnson is not going to open the door and appear, he's going to wait for david cameron to speak first. so it is something of a standoff between the two major political characters on the conservative side, there's a standoff between the two. boris johnson won't speak until the prime minister has spoken

but clearly major political changes of thought and happening right now. i think this is a rebuke to president obama. liz, is it a plus for donald trump? liz: when he went to england and made those comments and sort of weighed in what most people really didn't think that was appropriate for him to be encouraging to english to vote to stay in the eu. interesting the polling shifted right then after his comments to remain -- i mean, to exit, excuse me. so whatever impact he had was exactly the opposite of what he had set out to do and maybe the english also thought it was a bit overreaching of president obama to tell them what they should be doing. as far as donald trump is concerned, look he says antiestablishment populist character, and i think to peter's point there is an

analogy for sure. stuart: a parallel, isn't it? liz: if donald trump were smart, he would talk about bureaucracy and taking the power back to the people, local authorities, state's rights, issues like that because americans hate the federal government. i'm sorry, that's an overstatement. that their local authorities traditionally and typically have had. >> regulations is what people don't like. in the european zone, they had rules like children under eight couldn't blow up. rules on the powers of vacuum cleaners. liz: that's exactly right. >> made people crazy. liz: the thing that was over the top they ban electric tea kettles. this is a new rule on the shelf for months, all the small

appliances, energy efficiency, a climate issue so they ban toasters and tea kettles and people went crazy. >> i think there's a powerful formation, it was -- it evolved over time. it was a political and the policies got more and more to the forth front. it became microregulation and micromanagement. >> let's face it, have we seen in amazon, have we seen a google, have we seen a microsoft? they're all about picking

winners and losers and who has the most power in the hallways. >> the benefit of an administrator. stuart: i want to bring don that's with the american enterprise institute that's joining us from london. you were very much in the stay camp, you wanted the brits to stay in the european union, i guess you're disappointed at the moment? >> it looks like the result is heading toward a leave victory. it's not so much for me to be with brussels. at the same time i recognize that there have been important benefits for the past 70 years. europe has been peaceful in history and those risk to be jeopardized by the british vote and by the unveiling of the

european union. stuart: that's something i want to talk about, unraveling of the european union enhances the unraveling, speeds up the end of the european union, do you agree with that? >> indeed, it does, in isolation i would not be worried about uk becoming the member of ea as oppose to european union. the problem is that brexit is going to empower internationalist, mr. putin and a month and a half ago the czech was having vote. they have to pay attention to the geo politics. stuart: hold on for a second. our colleague, he's saying, i believe he's a colleague of

yours, he's saying this will speed up the break up of europe. we are back to that same subject again, mr. embassador. >> well, i think it will. the european union has made less and specifically on the security front. the european union has contributed nothing to european security. european security is guarantied by nato and britain's withdraw will strengthen nato, i think nato is the only vehicle that will work and if the europeans really provided for a defense of their own, american opinion would lead to withdraw. secure t putin and other security threats, you're going to need to strengthen nato again. let's be clear about one other thing. nato has something the european union in whole or in pieces will never have and that's the united states. and we are the fundamental reason, our presence in europe

since 1945 is why europe, the western part of europe has not gone back to 20th century ways and why we stood against the soviets and the communist blocks and we led alliance that won the cold war. we are the guarantor. stuart: i want to know if leaving the european union is a negative for the united states, is it and in which way would you say it's negative for us here? >> indeed, it is. it's an illusion to think that nato and eu are separate entities. a bitter divorce is going to have impact in trust of european nations and also going back in history, the eu are essentially two sides of the same coin. american commitment to peace, security and prosperity in

europe since the second world war and for the very reason successful american administrations have been committed to the european integration project and if it unravels as it might -- specially on the eastern flank where it's not enough for nato to be presence and committed to the countries but there's also energy fendence on russia or russian propaganda in europe. stuart: what you are seeing, 10 downing street. official residence of david cameron. you have the home of boris johnson, the leader of the exit campaign, what is he going to do now? let me summarize for you. the out vote has won. that is the projection from all major news organizations, the out vote has won.

awfully close to it. the result of that is a blood bath on america's financial markets this morning. gold way up, 60, $70 higher. you know, we have to take a commercial break, it will be the first one in about an hour and 15 minutes, but we are going to take it because we have to make some money but we will be back. [laughter] insurance a smarter way, which saves money. they offer a diy home inspection, which you do yourself, which saves money. they offer a single deductible, so you don't pay twice when something like this happens, which saves money. they make it easy to bundle home and auto, which reduces red tape, which saves money. and they offer claim forgiveness, so if you make a claim, you could save money. esurance was born online and built to save. and when they save, you save. that's home and auto insurance for the modern world. esurance, an allstate company. click or call.

stuart: this is the vote, the vote is that the brits will leave the european union. when all is said and done and the final vote is tallied, it's likely maybe 3, 4 points of difference with the leave

campaign in the lead. that will have a profound effect in america's financial markets which open up in about nine hour's time. the dow industrial will be down 600 points. s&p, nasdaq composite all of them down 4%. price of oil $47 a barrel. the real action is in stocks and in currencies. by the way, the british pound, i'm not going to stay collapsed by way, way down. the biggest move that i have seen in a very limited period of time. a dollar 50 to a dollar 34 in a matter of minutes and the euro, that's the euro currency used by -- i'm not sure how many member states, but a lot of them, that's come all the way down and approaching very close to parity with the u.s. dollar. we haven't seen that in a long time. joining us louis, former british

parliament joining from london. louis is very much in the leave camp. i take it you are a one happy camper at the moment; is that correct? >> i certainly am. today is our independence day. stuart: are you not a little worried about the mayhem in financial markets specifically collapse of the british found? >> we are doing all right from where i'm sitting. some of us have been here before. as a 45-year-old middle-aged woman, i'm not worried in the slightest. i remember in 1992 when the united kingdom was part of the exchange rate mechanism to go into the euro and we bounced out of the exchange mechanism because the pound was shorted. a couple of days of turmoil in the financial markets when pound left the erm, a long period of

stable growth and that's what you're going to see in britain after a world. i would say to all of your investors, buy the british properties online while you can because the discount to the pound won't last all that long. stuart: well, that's a very positive outlook from you right there looking behind you to the house of parliament there. i want to know what you think of the impact of the british results on american politics because i know that you actually live in the united states, you've been on my program in new york frequently. >> that's right. stuart: what do you think it's the impact on american politics of the british vote? >> well, i do believe that hillary clinton will be well advised to come out and welcome the democratic decision of the british people which has been quite clearly delivered. we are america's oldest and closest ally, part of the alliance part of nato, apart

from the united states have an army that's willing to use it. the democrats slightly -- donald trump is fair to say detested in britain. he did come out to say it's up to the britain to decide on their vote. this is partially on his shoulders because he came to britain and said that britain will be at the back of the cue and your viewers will know perfectly well as i do that americans do not use the word cue, they saline, they not only insulted the british people to say that we would be at the back of the line to form trade deals with the united states, britain was very angry because it looked like they were writing lines for the president to say and greatly

resented by nation. stuart: do you think cameron is finished, does he have to step down real quickly? >> it's going to be his choice. the leave sign will feel very relaxed, very happy, willing to have a period of stability. prime minister cameron is due to step down, has announced retirement at the end of parliament in 2020. we would have expected him to step down sometime next year. so i think that will be a push for stability. i do think the chancellor's position is difficult, however, i don't know that there would be a huge push for lead supporters. most of the conservative parliament party, the members of parliament were for remain so they would probably want to prime minister to stay and back a period, everybody needs to calm down, everybody needs to

keep calm and carry on. stuart: no, no, we want to keep the excitement going. we are very excited over here. it's a horse race to us and we are enjoying it. stay there for a second. i want to bring in steve hilton, formerly worked with and very closely with david cameron, left david cameron and now in california and strong campaigner for the leave camp. do i have that right, steve hilton? >> that's right, stuart. momentous result and one that has huge opportunity for britain and the world. stuart: do you think prime minister cameron has to step down? >> not at all. i think it would be the wrong thing to do. britain has just taken a decision which has huge implications, that's a big change, enough big change, i think, to take at one time. we don't need another big change, changing the leader of the country. i think david cameron was

elected last year in a general election and he should serve the time that he was elected for and i think he's the best person now to lead britain in the moment of great opportunity for new future as independent self-governing nation. stuart: are you really happy with this? i know you wanted to leave campaign to win and they have won, but look at the results on financial markets in america. we are going to be 6,000 points in the financial markets, the u.s. dollar going straight up. are you happy about this financial fallout, steve? >> i think markets go up and down and the real point here is that this is a very long-term decision as we were told in the referendum campaign. it's a decision for generations, not just for one week or year, but for 40, 50 years, that's a fundamental change in how the country is run and, of course,

they'll be market reaction to that, but that shouldn't get in the way of understanding what a great day this is for britain and i think also for people around the world including in america who are getting so frustrated by the way that unaccountable centralized government is removing the kind of control they want over the things that matter to them. this is a real blow against that kind of bureaucratic power. stuart: exactly. i want to go around the table here because that's one of the things that's emerging from this european vote here. the frustration with the bureaucrats in brussels, which laid down the law for brits and other people. i'm told that there are 40,000 european commission bureaucrats in brussels. >> and all they have to do is sit around dreaming up new rules and regulations. more than half of the laws passed in england that were affecting english people's lives

did not come from parliament but demanded by the eu. imagine that. that's a significant loss of sovereignty. that's the conversation that took place in england that made people recent bureaucrats that are not elected by the british people. they exist and exist to make your lives miserable. going forward, again, i think that cameron has enormous role to play now. he really has to be the statesman who acknowledges the law but also promises the english people that there's a way forward and he's going to find that and lead the negotiations with the eu so that all of this does not impact the economy the way ha he's been threatening it would. stuart: i do believe that there's profound unhappiness with bureaucracy, not just in europe but in the united states as well. >> i think it's victory for democracy as you say, if democracy is designed to hurt a

national identity neither one would last very long. we are not going to put on with the regulations that have nothing to do with my life and decided by somebody that i have no part in electing. and if you look at the -- the parliament of europe is 736 men and women who have been elected for five-year terms, lord knows what they do all day. [laughter] >> europe and the united states have been in a horse race of which area of the world can grow for slowly. the leaders for remain and chinese president xi peng they urged remain and that's a blow to them as well. stuart: i'm going to read a a

headline that i don't think you're going to like. britain votes with trump against hillary, against obama, but the point -- and i know you don't like this, britain votes with trump. >> that is literally -- [laughter] >> donald trump, i know he is loved by fox business viewers, but allow me to give you the report from the ground. he is detested, detested in great britain, however -- stuart: wait a minute. we don't care what the brits think about donald trump. you're not going to vote. >> the article saying britain voted for trump. britain didn't care about trump one way or the other. i think i should just say that

trump by the remain side, luckily people paid no attention. it really isn't about the micro managing, it's about macro managing from brussels. that is not why britain vote today leave today. brussels is taking decisions against our independence including on most importantly migration, saying that there is no limit on the amount of people that could come from eastern europe and migrants who have been granted citizenship, david cameron went to brussels and asked for emergency break of migration and brussels said no. stuart: i could tell you -- i can j that i got to you, i know i got under your skin with that headline.

let me divert from you and go around the table to what other people think. the headline is britain votes with trump. >> well, again, i think there are parallels, american voters would be embolden to take a step and has been blasting and so forth. but back to the immigration issue, it is interesting cameron basically promised the nation to bring immigration down into the tens of thousands. last year over 300,000 people who immigrated into the uk. and i think -- so i think cameron actually has some explaining to do or maybe just weakened his position by not following through on his promises. who does that sound like? i mean, we've had the same thing happening here where we have been continually promised border security and never happens. stuart: there's a parallel. steve hilton, i have to get him

before we lose him. britain votes with trump. now i know that you live in america, you live in california. what do you make of this headline, britain votes with trump? >> he's the parallel, stuart. i think that what you're seeing in this vote today just says support for trump is people saying we have had enough of not being listened to, being ignored by the elites and we want power back over the things that matter in our lives and it's a revolt against this bureaucratic centralization of power and the elites that think they know best and think they are the ones who can push people around and tell them what to do. people have had enough of it. i agree that trump would not factor in the campaign but exactly the same underlying reason for the result here today as you're seeing in the campaign

that's propelled him to the republican nomination. stuart: steve hilton, thank you very much for appearing today. everybody else stay in place, please. extraordinary response on the world's financial markets, our stock market in america is going way down. back in a moment.

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stuart: two headlines emerging in the last couple of minutes, number one an aid at number 10 downing street, the residence of the prime minister of great britain, the aid said we are in unchartered territory. i believe the aid has been asked what is the future of prime minister cameron and he replied we are in unchartered territory. yes, we are.

item number two. the bank of japan that is the central bank of japan has said they will supply sufficient liquidity to monitor and get this market through tomorrow or today, i should say. they will supply enough liquidity. that means they're going to print a whole lot of money. look at that. now we are down 700 points on the dow jones industrial average when it opens in precisely nine hours time. down 7 11. >> here is why, brakers will be called. so we have to watch out how they handle it and preannounce before the open that they would do a pause in trading just to make sure this is smooth open.

stuart: okay, we have the price of oil down about 5%. we have the price of gold going straight up this morning, today, yeah, this morning. that's what it is. i'm losing track of time here. we are up $65 an ounce of gold at 13.28. quickly check the asian markets, i know the nikkei stock average in japan was halted briefly. i believe it's trading again now but it's down 7%. the hang seng index in hong kong down 4%, singapur index is down two and a half percent. louis is still with us, welcome back, louis, i know that you're there. so -- >> the sun is hot in the sky. stuart: you know all about finance, you worked in that area, are you surprised how big a negative reaction we are seeing in the world's markets? >> no, not at all. this is a replay of 1992.

that was a period of extreme volatile when that happens and afterwards the markets calm down. the markets will have calm down, the currency will have come dawn and the markets taken into accounts the cause of bank. and we have seen the big shifts before when there are large events and a few days later the markets return to normal. i think that the markets and traders should keep calm. stuart: louis, you're being very positive there, a fairly rapid bounceback. let's get a comment on that. >> i would have to say in the u.s. i agree with you. i think the united states market will bounce back. i think there's buying opportunities. i think this is an overreaction, black swans very often when things go wrong too fast.

i'm not sure i agree with you on the uk because there's so much incertainty. >> whether or not the european union, ec, gives england a hard time to set an example to discourage other countries from leaving, so we already have the french prime minister saying you're not going to get treatment. [laughter] stuart: what are you going to say? liz: i don't think they will cut out their noses by the trade. they are going to have some sort of trade agreement asap. i would be very interesting in asking louis what she wants cameron to say, what should he really say to soothe the markets

and promise to the uk voter and everyone is going to wake up in england and say, oh, my gosh because everyone is telling us how dire this is going to be, is there any way to calm the waters? stuart: louis, first i want to get back to embassador john who has been shaking the head at what some of us have been saying around the table here. make your point, mr. embassador. >> look, the leaders of the european union nations who have said britain is going to be cast into the outer darkness, we are simply reflecting the ignorance of their own arrogance over the past several months. the people who really have to deal with this issue such as, for example, on wednesday the head of the german confederation of german businesses said that if britain voted to leave the european union, german business would insist that the terms of trade remain the same because so much of their exports go into the uk market.

of course, there's going to be uncertainty, there always is when you get off a failed enterprise, but unless europe follows in neighbor policy which would beggar them to, they could come to their senses. i think in europe you'll hear all kinds of noises how we need to accommodate the needs of their own industries and their own workers. this will turn out to be easier than people think. stuart: i think we are trying to come to terms with a historic event. when the brits decide to leave the european union of which they have been a part for over 40 years, untangling is a very big deal. it speaks a great deal about what is the future of the european union, it speaks to the relationship between the united kingdom and the united states, it speaks to turmoil on the financial markets. this is an extraordinary event that we are witnessing. make no mistake. the brits have decide today leave. >> they have decide today leave. the big companies are warning don't do it.

they were saying, remain. the little guys, small businesses in the uk were saying leave. stuart: elites around the world are shocked at this. they said stay, the elites everywhere said, stay. >> can i make a point on that? stuart: mr. embassador, go ahead. >> let me give you an example of divorce from reality in big instate -- institutions work. jpmorgan in terms of pricing and what was going to happen, they projected the new castle voting area would vote 67% for remain and new castle voted 51%, that's how divorce reality is. they're going to recognize that they were correctly as quickly as they can. stuart: well, the elites tried to instill fear in regular

people saying, you do this and you have a catastrophe on your hands. >> that's one -- you're exactly right. that's one reason why david cameron is in trouble. i understand the argument and i heard it from several conservative mp's that leaving cameron in office is necessary for stability. i tell you he has split the conservative party. they've accusing of lying and now if he remains as prime minister, he will have to negotiate precisely the opposite of what he's campaigned in the past six months for. it's humanly nearly impossible. stuart: his position is very hard to understand. it's almost untangible position. he leads a divided party. he himself we wanted to stay in the european union. he has completely lost that vote. i'm not sure i can see how he stays in power as the prime minister of great great britain.

i just don't see how he can do that. i don't see how you hang on. i really don't. peter, you were saying earlier that this vote in britain was not about money, it was not able economics, it was not about rational thinking about money, it was about emotion, that was your point. >> i have to say that where i agree with the embassador is the financial services industry thought profit would come before principle and it certainly didn't. right now london is the trading power for all of europe. one of the biggest trading cities in the world and they have passport rights into europe under eu. what's going to happen now? will all bankers have to leave and go to frankfurt? stuart: new trade deal, two years. >> the way the financial service

works they're highly unlikely to wait. >> in other words, models exist to ran out those trade deals with norway and switzerland. >> i mentioned earlier, there were two big issues, one was trade that we talked about but peter, we talked about the second one which is the financial service's industry, a huge engine of english prosperity. the financial community is by in large saying they are going to have to leave england. stuart: was that a threat? >> absolutely was a great. stuart: as long as i've been alive and that's a long time and i don't see that suddenly changing because of this vote. >> if they lose that passport status where they can take financial services right over into europe, they won't move, but if there is some hold up there, if i were angela merkel there are hundreds of billions

of dollars at stake here, if i were angela merkel, but i will welcome them with open arms and frankfurt can be a secondary capital for trading and could be a big opportunity for germany. stuart: it aipt london. it ain't new york. >> i ain't moving. [laughter] >> there's talk that london freed of its from european union could be something like a singapur, what do you say? >> absolutely. the arguments about the collapse of london as the financial center were made exactly the same way when britain decided not to go under the euro. my god, how can you be the financial center of europe if you don't use the common currency and it turned out not to be true. what an opportunity this is for

britain to cast off the regulatory mechanism that brussels has imposed on it, be an open heaven for banking and financial institutions from all over the world, cut taxes, eliminate regulations. i think this could be under the right policies maybe cameron's or somebody else's, this is a great opportunity for great britain to take off. stuart: that's precisely the reason why i wanted the brits to leave the european union. i was very much in favor of the leave camp because i don't think you can reform european style socialism. i don't know if there's anything you can do about it. there's no way you can change that mindset. go ahead, john. >> go the germany and leave under eu regulations, if that's what the bankers want to do, sell their stocks. [laughter] stuart: i heard that. i was concentrating in something else.

a gentleman just came and sat next to me. i know who he is. his name is robert powell and i've had a couple of big fights wi this very set here in new york city specifically he works for the economist, he's the guy who said that donald trump is a huge threat to the world, a greater threat than what was it -- >> i don't know, breakfast. [laughter] stuart: so what are you doing here at 12:46 a.m. on a friday morning? are you here to cry about the brexit vote? >> well, i could hardly sleep. it is a bit of smacking term of events. [laughter] stuart: there's an interesting term of phrase. it is a dramatic turn of events, that is absolutely true.

you think it's a terrible thing, do you? >> yes, extraordinarily bad news. stuart: to who? >> the uk, global economy. stuart: is it bad news for america? >> i think we will have a huge impact in the u.s. the eu is one the largest economies in the world. we are thinking about the global economic impact, maybe gdp will be down $2 billion just because there's impact on sentiments. $75trillion. it's not going to be that big. stuart: wait a second you work for the economist magazine, whatever you want to call it. here you are worried that britain will exit this socialist bunch of people in europe, you're worried about it? you think there's something wrong with that? i think it's liberating, what we want is private enterprise,

capitalism, don't we? [laughter] stuart: don't we? >> it's competitive already. the amount of regulation that comes out of the eu is massively exaggerated. people get worked up is because they've got so little power. uk has hybrid model socialist europe and the rest of the united states with capitalist approach. it's quite well in the middle. stuart: they we wanted to regulate tea kettles out of existence in britain. what do you thinking? >> actually it was environmental. anyway, a lot of the stuff that goes on is in the mouth of press who has been bashing the european union. [laughter] stuart: would that include muah?

>> no, general human beings. >> don't you think that some of the arguments being made by the economists which i reread the article today that you had about it, one of many, was more about concerned about the eu and less concerned about the uk and comowr comments just now kind of hart back to that. >> no i'm not. >> no, it's british organization. of course, i want what's best for the uk. no surprise at all that the economist believes that immigration is actually good, free trade, foreign investment. if you walk away you have a massive amount of urn certainty. there's a reason why sterling has fallen to the lowest level. >> i would argue that a lot of uncertainty and the collapse of

sterling and so forth is because of all of the people who were advocating remain made apock -- apocalyptic scenario. >> all of the predictions from economists and economist mag magazines, you were the guys that i canceled the subscription for over 35 years. >> your lost. [laughter] stuart: you guys came out and voted barack obama for a second term, an economist newspaper

that's geared toward free markets and you supported barack obama for a second term, what are you thinking? >> the winner at the end of the day. he did come out on top. stuart: that's all it is. it's not part of the idea to wig elections. you have the daily mail, the times, daily telegraph, all pushing for leave, you have the former head of the conservative party, education all pushing for leave. it's not partisan conspiracy. stuart: we know all about each other, i know all about you. you department go -- didn't go to a private school, didn't you?

>> no, i didn't. stuart: public education, that's where you went? >> i. stuart: you're from the north of england? >> i. >> you came from middle class? >> middle class. stuart: the point is you're a striver, you're just like me, work hard and climb the food chain and keep a large proportion of what you make and work forth. what the devil are you doing with a bunch of neo socialists that want to take a bunch of money? [laughter] stuart: we know each other. you know where i'm from. pete district. exactly right. excuse us americans. [laughter] stuart: go. >> i feel game of thrones. stuart: why aren't you a striver?

>> after great recession the biggest driver of uk was entrepreneurship. individuals starting their own businesses and that's entirely possible within the uk while it's part of the european union. stuart: it is not possible if it's not in the european union? >> it's much more difficult to be exporting to the european union when you've just said you're going to walk away from it. stuart: i predict that you will never return to britain and live in america. >> i'm quite fond of the u.s. stuart: you fit in. >> so do you. stuart: i do, indeed. stay there. we have lot more for you. let me organize myself of what has just happened. it's been an earthquake, the brits voted to leave the european union. this was not expected.

some people thought they might and the result is a blood bath on the financial markets. what you're looking at there is the price of gold up $70 an ounce. that's a big move. look at at that, down 700 points for dow jones industrial average, the nasdaq is down 228. liz, what do you have? liz: about 5%. what's happening now market regulators are basically saying, they're hitting what's called the limit down orders. this is when the market regulators could step in at the open with all of the indices and say we are going to pause trading. there's extraordinary volatility. we are going to enact circuit brakers. no, no, i'm sorry. i beg to differ. when we see volatility like this, we haven't seen news

crossing this early when a historic event like this, you can imagine that the regulators will step in to smooth trading. stuart: okay, it's early morning to britain. they're waking up to the news that britain is going to leave the european union. what are their newspapers saying? i have a selection for you. this is the sun, robert, just close your eyes because you don't want to see a tabloid like that. see you later. this is the daily express and that too was in favor of leaving; is that right, right? they wanted out. historic day for britain. this is metro, i'm not familiar with that newspaper who recollects are they? >> a free newspaper. >> stuart: tabloid out in the morning. britain divides. well, at that time not very dramatic but the news is, indeed, dramatic, the brits are

going to leave, okay. let me summarize here. at the end of the day the brits, the out vote in britain needed 16.7 million votes, get that vote and they are out. they have very close to that and all projections say they will meet the 16.7 million required. you're looking at number 10, you were for a second. that is the official residence of the prime minister of england, his future is in doubt. david cameron, he wanted to stay in the european union, he lost, can he still lead the conservative party in parliament? the reaction on the financial markets is a blood bath, down 700 for dow industrials, the nasdaq is down 5% and s&p down 5%. we are going to take a very short commercial break but we will be back with the big news y we were born 100 years ago

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sunni 1:00 in the morning friday morning on the east coast june the 24th on the east coast it is 1:00 in the morning and we bring you the news. it's extraordinary what is happening the last five or six hours. the british have voted to leave the european union. we believe it to be about a three-point margin of victory for the leave count. they are leaving. this is a profound event in britain and in europe and indeed on the financial markets around the world. we open up in about eight and a half hours time in new york. the dow jones average ob down about 700 points. s&p down 100 and nasdaq down 228. when you start talking percentage terms you know that you are way down. nigel farage is the guy who was one of the leaders of the