stuart: all right, friday, we're almost to end of show we have 10 seconds left, hand it over to connel. >> not yet. stuart: is it your birthday. >> yesterday. stuart: did ashley know that? >> i did, i got it wrong, my wife's birthday is today, i hope i didn't get that wrong. >> you should know that, not mine. stuart: good luck. >> jobs spark today. they have been talking about it sparked a rally in our stock market, dow up triple digits, more than 150, s&p 500 with a new lifetime high today, plit -- politically democrats love that but donald trump getting an economic push ready to go. polls tell us he needs to get something. i am connel mcshane feelin

feel filling in for neil today. investors cheering as we mentioned but mr. trump, just hitting back, he had said that picture painted by democrats is not real for most americans. that sets up our first of many debates, christie is with us, and ron christie is with us. ron christie and christie sitser. >> a little confusing. >> ron, let me start with you. if you are trump, i thought he dropped ball on that gdp report, he could have picked it up, instead got caught up in the khan controversy. now we have a jobs report that is pretty good. >> i don't think this is bad news. he did drop the ball. you are right. second quarter 1.2, mr. trump can paint a strong picture say, that obama/clinton

economy is not working. and if you look at 94 million people that are out of the workforce, unemployment rate should be about 10% rather than 4. something, his advisories need to get him focused on broader picture. >> christie, what do you they that argument that ron is making, you would think that republican argument, we don't know what trump is going to do. the polls have been a mess this week. but can he make some ground on the economy? to be fair he does poll well still with ask you people about it, the economy, should democrats be worried about that. >> no. you mean, in theory, he should be able to make an argument, but for years republicans have been saying we had month after month of good jobs, there is looking for bad, they say two things, they say, well, that is not the real unemployment

rate because labor partration is lower than it should be, we're seeing that pick up, and unemployment rate, 4.9% that is basically full employment. >> your argument -- >> the economy is strong even if you look below the jobs from last month. >> you make 4 more years argument? as ron said. >> yeah. i am. >> there two things, one, yes. continue the way we've been going right now obama's favorability ratings are higher hand they have been in a number of year. counter to that, donald trump has a vulnerability right now on issue of outsourcing, issue has gone -- hillary has gone after him. >> making his stuff overseas. >> correct. in china, and et cetera.

that is going right at heart of you know white working class voters. >> group he supposed to target, ron. as you started to say, almost like you if you a republican want to go back to first report that rereferenced, say okay jobs are coming back. but the economic growth is still sluggish at best, we have like 1% growth? >> that is right. connel, if would be first president of u.s. since 1949 not to have one year of 3% gdp growth, 3%, we will not see that in obama administration. and what is hillary clinton offering? she says she wants to raise taxes to those on top of income level. and adding more stimulus, and more government spending. that. >> you think that argument about trump making stuff overseas, do you think that hurts him?

makes it more difficult for him to articulate what you talk about. >> no it is hillary from one christie to another christie, this is hillary talking about what she is going to, we already look at what president obama has done, it has not worked. >> we'll get back to you, democratic argument that christie talking about here, it argue gets leverage from the jobs report. it was better than expected. however, as i mentioned to christie and to ron, trump actually polls well on the economy. so, we always hear about pivots, we want to see one here? at beginning of next week. campaign telling us there is a big speech? >> we are, they are billing this size a big speech for don ton, th don, the question always is how big of a speech will it be.

that is how they are labeling this. we'll see whether this is a tweak from existing economic policies or they will roll out something bigger, campaign chair -- manafort said it will focus on tax cuts. and gave a bit of a preview to maria bartiromo. it will air sunday morning. >> we'll layout a vision of a growth economic plan. that will focus on not just lowering taxes but focus on cutting deregulation. and unleashing america's energy capabilities, focusing on things to help middle class be able to afford their life style, trying to get wages with real growth, it is a plan that touches all economic spheres of our economy, all demographics, we think the

contrast nicely with clinton's hidden tax increase plan. >> we know several advisors have been working on a rework tax plan for donald trump for months now, we're not anticipating that overarching tax plan to be revealed monday. we do believe that a 15% tax cut, for small and large businesses will be at heart of plan. trump speech comes as he unveiled his list of economy advis advisers. >> steve moore, has talked about that tax plan you were referring to. we'll not see that monday? are they rushing this speech out to change the subject? or to we know? >> i mean we've heard for a few days now that speech would be given on monday, the question that we've been trying to get to, what about this tax speech attacks plan because we have -- tax plan we heard about the tax plan for a

while, we do not believe they will give us a sight of paper with rates and like on monday. what you heard from paul manafort he will go over more general themes, we believe this will in mold of that, but this time the economy. >> key is talking about that subject. all right, blake thank you. >> that is donald trump, now there is a new report out saying that hillary clinton would hike taxes by 1.3 trillion dollars. that is right trillion dollars, christie and ron are still here. we were talking about with donald trump, the economy is the top issue. for hillary clinton, christie, with a headlin a like that taxes are going up. that conditioning good for her -- can't be good for her? >> it is a misleading headline, that is a very large

number that should give people a little bit of panic. under that big headline, which is that, almost all of those tax hikes are going to the top 1%. people can bein being a little bit easier, and means that national debt will go down, she will make critical investment and thing like our infrastructure. >> let me ask you about the debt real quick. they look add help, 14 trillion today, they say if hillary clinton were to enact her policies, by 2026 it would go to 26 trillion. >> right, again that is a conservative organization, you have seen tax analysis put out by middle of road. and left leans group as well, that found opposite, with donald trump's plan, national

debt would continue to go way away up, and with hillary clinton plan way away down. >> ron, your take on that. >> well, not too much connel, we have seen what happen last 7 1/2 years this president added more national debt. now hillary clinton is proposing to double down on that. he added 9 trillion to the debt, and hillary clinton talking about she wants to spend more with more investment. i don't see how more government spending brings down the national debt it will add to it and cripple what we need right now, small business growth. >>on le thing, i would say that might be an issue in normal campaign you would make that argument big government versus less govnment, in a quote, unquote, normal campaign, but i don't know if donald trump will make thea traditional conservative

economy policy. >> here is what is from one krist to another, we agree on. this is not a traditional campaign. i will say, adding more money to the debt is not good. adding more infrastructure has proven it has not worked we need a different path forward. >> and ron brings up point of adding to debt that is true, sometimes we confuse, talk cievf cies don -oaris have added when ron talking about a lot of money to the debt, true, right in. >> yes. and there -- >> it would add more under hill headline' hillary clinton's plan. >> no, no. we do know about with donald trump said, it is interesting.

and a little bit unorthodox, he started off by saying he would not make cuts to social security and medicare. that is important. he changed his policy a little bit on this since then. but that is one place i think he got nontraditional support. >> let's see what he says monday. easier for conservatives to make an argument if trump made similar ones to what they believe in, new questions surrounding president obama, and his comments about trump, and questions he is being asked. >> does it make you question his fitness to be president. >> i think republican nominee is unfit to serve as president. i said so last week. he keeps on proving it. >> are you concerned he will receive security briefings about is expi isis and other sensitive issues. >> they have been told they

are classified briefings, if they want to be president, they have to start acting like president. that means being able to receive these briefings, and not spread them around. connel: the president there questions abilities of donald trump to keep a secret, we know there is a story about hillary clinton, i don't have to say it, but even fbi director, james comey confirming that hillary clinton did compromise our security in one way or another. in making available information to adversaries, a double standard, what do you make of this? >> i was in the white house i had the same sex secon same se. >> security clearance that secretary clinton did, i look at someone about to get security briefings at highest level, been proven careless

and negligent, in my view should have gone under indictment for this, this is a double standard. and donald trump has not proven to be that careless, and sloppy and irresponsible as hillary clinton as with the e-mails. >> yes, i don't think that is argument i would be making if i were a clinton supporters. >> well i say there are a number of republicans right now including today former have director of cia come out against trump, said they are going to vote for hillary clinton for, a number of reasons, but, that one in particular. you can't possibly trust, donald trump with the nuclear code for example. >> neither one can be according to polls, neither one of these candidates are trusted. they are about the same. >> sure. >> yeah. >> right. >> they are about the same level, right. >> they are both like 60% in the untrustworthy column.

christie and christie thank you very much. ron. >> thank you. >> we have white house with a big issue they have been dealing with this week, the iran story, not calling that $400 million payment to iran a ransom. a big interview on fox business with one of the hostages with questions that raised new questions, after this.

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comcast business. built for business. ♪olympics 2016, let me get you on my level. ♪ so you never miss a moment, ♪ ♪miss a minute, miss a medal. ♪ ♪ why settle when you can have it all? ♪ ♪soccer to wrestling. track and field to basketball. ♪ fencing to cycling. diving to balance beam. ♪ ♪all you have to sa♪ ♪ is, "show me," and boom it's on the screen♪ ♪ from the bottom of the mat, ♪ ♪ to the couch where you at? ♪ ♪ show me the latest medal count♪ ♪xfinity's where it's at. ♪ welcome to it all. comcast nbcuniversal is proud to bring you coverage of the rio olympic games. connell: there are questions surrounding timing of $400 million payment to iran. one of hostages freed, and raisingeyebrows. >> i just remember the night we have been in airport. you know just take hours, and hours, i asked one of the

police, that was with us, that why you are not letting to us go to the plane. and he told me we're waiting for another plane. and if that plane takes off then we'll let you go. connell: let's bring in republican congressman robert pitinger. what do you make of those comments waiting for one plane to come in? >> i know that voice, the administration had a nat pro cliffty to be on sta kate the facts, this is a ransome. there are no coincidences this is reality on the ground, it has been what they have done month after month, we gave iran 600 million a month for 17 months, a precondition to sit at the table, they can't seem to give enough money to

iran to make this deal work, and make it appear to become tent 92 if this is a ransom as you say and should be characterized as such what are consequences of that. >> there should be a investigation, attorney general office should be engaged, this is against our law. we have gone after other countries who have been engaged in ransoms. connell: should what are should consequences be for administration officials but real life consequences on ground with future hostage situations and dealings with iran, what has this created? >> it has created a threshold, that threshold america will pay money for hostages, that is the tragedy of this. iran has a continued commitment to spread of

terrorism. they held our sailors at gun point. they have illegally tested little bi ballistic missiles, they threatened straights of hormuz. yet this president wants to be fully engaged with iran. connell: you talked about how you were involved with this particular hostage we heard from. what about now in i saw a letter maybe to secretary kerry? >> we would like answers, explain, why was this money sentiment what is it not a ransom. this negotiation, went on for over a year and a half. connell: the president tried to explain part of that yesterday. saying that it was part of the nuclear deal announced it was public. >> and justice department came out as well said they raised questions over the -- whether

it should have been done or not. this was inept in terms of planning. it had to be done to get the approval ofs iranians. connell: you hear hostage himself talk about it, that sheds new light on this. a very good interview from yesterday, thank you congressman. >> good to be with you. connell: on big story on the economy, we saw jobs going up. will interest rates ever go up? our next question, the fed fallout from the big news today, after this.

connell: we had what could be characterized solid job numbering today in july. unemployment rate staying below 5%, and stocks are higher. there is a nice rally in market. but in terms of trend there

are visiting issues. investing issues, and linkedin reports a syb quarter loss. and then priceline, profit climbed by 12%, travel spiked. let's bring in former dallas federal reserve advisor issue to talk about this. what people are talking about now, what does the fed do with not only that in be but everything put together, in particular the jobs report. put off raising rates until when in. >> i think right now there is bound to be a lot of head scratching going on in the federal reserve. because, the data flow is getting if anything much more mixed. you look at gdp growth then at what is happening in labor market. then that really paints a mixed picture. i think that is why we did not see as much movement today in

expectations for a rate hike by year end as initial headline number would have suggested. we're at 40% before the end of the year, even after the strong job data. connell: it is interesting we were talking about it in political contact, it is like, you could like at that gdp report, to your point, boy sluggish point. and donald trump go after hillary clinton on that, and hillary clinton come back and look at jobs report, and say 4 more years of obama term, what is your 30,000 foot view? people saying you know all this is one pot together, here is what we have. what is the big picture view of the economy? >> i think what a lot of people are failing to appreciate today is not just a robust 25 5,000 in job gains, if you dig into the numbers, we're supposed to be 30,000 feet, but say under the earth,

if you dig into numbers, 52% of jobs created were temporary, leasure, health care. and odd 21,000 seasonaly adjusted increase in teachers in july. so, the majority of jobs that were created are not in industries that paid that tend to have high income associated with them. that has been a hallmark of this anemic. the type of job that are being created that don't generate a lot of income. they keep middle class income earners in a rut. connell: wages are going up, though, right? we're seeing that, we saw this that this report, what does that tell you? >> but we're seeing is that aggregate incomes are rising, average hourly earning are still stuck, that means you have more people making minimum wage-type positions, in total, incomes are rising

but, these are not high paying jobs. that are being created. average hourly earnings are not moving as much as certainly as households would like. connell: a tough call for the fed. much inflation or not much? >> you know we're not seeing adequate inflation in wages. and again, oil prices are coming down. so, the fed will have an excuse to stay on hold in september, we'll see what they do in december. connell: okay a lot of people thinking, and end of year we'll see danielle thank you. >> we have breaking news on zika. you may remember the ceo of company, oxitech, this week working on a army of genetically modified mosquitoes to kill off zika mosquitoes. the breaking news is that fda is now approving testing with the gmo mosquitoes, in florida

keys. interesting. it is a long way from full approval but one step closer, we'll also talk about donald trump on the show as we continue, polling has been brutal all week-long. even in battle gund states. there is one thing that he needs to do before he can see a boost, you will find out what that is after a quick break. if you suffer from a dry mouth, then you'll know how uncomfortable it can be. but did you know that the lack of saliva can also lead to tooth decay and bad breath? well, there is biotene, specially formulated with moisturizers and lubricants... biotene can provide soothing relief and it helps keep your mouth healthy too. biotene, for people who suffer from a dry mouth. and i quit smoking with chantix.

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we had been talking today about the solid jobs report that came out this morning. manufacturing is where you are seem in some struggles. donald trump tries to take advantage of that. he's been making a big push for blue-collar workers and the anti- trade message and he has the big economic speech coming out on monday we have nick on with us now. i wonder whether this message which is an anti- trade message. i just want to read negotiate. re- negotiate. that's how it's been taken. maybe he needs more than that because right now we look at the swing states whether it's ohio or pennsylvania he is down in every one of them. >> he doesn't need just a little bit more because he does have to resonate in the

states and that's correct but if you look at his economic advisory board i know a couple of really good people on their who has invested in real estate and you look at someone like stephen moore who is was actually one of the founders of the club for growth which is up policy hock. you have to realize that someone like that putting his name on the team and giving advice some of like someone like that could actually make a difference that is a type of person he is. you wonder if a donald trump is that type of guy. i'm just wondering. maybe we will see more on monday. sometimes we don't know. i think that's what a lot of people are waiting to find out. a lot of people think donald trump where's the suit of the riddler.

they really don't know where he stands on a lot of policies and a tape six months earlier he said one thing and then present day he said something else that counteracts what he says. i think the reason i'm resonating on these people that are on his economic advisory team as it relates to jobs in ohio i think if you will take advice and state where he got it from and how to go about something i think that will resonate among people and maybe pull up those numbers. we can talk to you about. it is still a big issue and it does in fairness resonate with a lot of people someone say that's what got him here. but to get him to this next step it's been a disastrous week maybe even two weeks since the end of his own convention how do you raise

money from this way out. given that the polls are where on thee it will be difficult circuit and raise money? >> i was actually talking to a gentleman i know in seattle and he said he was serious about the iran deal and different things going on. he said i see where trump is down in the polls and we need to get together. i know there is a huge event in the hamptons next week i look for fundraising to go up what i would do if i was aworkig for trump as i would take the polls and say look we can't let hillary clinton take this election. let's raise the more money and then let's pull him up in the polls. >> think you very much. it's always good to talk to you. tim murphy joins us now to talk a little bit about

trade. they had been talking about that the president is still for it you used to be and now you're not which is interesting giving the state you are in in and the presidential election is going on. >> i actually maintained that neutral position. in congress i'm also chamber of the sku still congress and other sent a letter to the president saying don't push us as a lame duck vote. get back there and renegotiated us for a couple of reasons. we know that china has continued to violate currency issues with its manipulation. this deal which is even lower than that in the american free trade agreement in our concern as i said this to them that

negotiated this. china can use these as a back door from losing parts through. and we think that is bad for the united states. we will continue to see the decline in manufacturing jobs that we've seen over the past decade. >> it means you are open to the argument of trade and the campaign going on. they said free trade has been hurting us. in some cases it's not we are getting high quality and cheaper goods coming in from overseas which raises our own standard of living. so would you acknowledge that and then specifically here there are certain things and maybe it's to pro- china that if we fixed it could be better. the difference is between free-trade and fair trade. they are not set up that way.

it would not be fair and i have no belief that china would enforce anything. it hasn't up to this point. what happens here is you just hear talking about the job growth. we have seen a steady decline in manufacturing jobs since the 1940s but it's plummeted in the last few years. maybe a little bit of flattening while the energy sector has remained lower-cost but when that climbs again we will see more problems with jobs in manufacturing jobs is what gives us the quality of life. neil: let me just ask about your state. first of all can he win in pennsylvania. it seems like he's really struggling in the big cities. and maybe western pennsylvania where he has some support it's not enough to make up for that.

>> it will section there in the corner of the state but central pennsylvania and other parts that have seen job loss from coal in manufacturing and other things those are the people who are going to be strong trump supporters throughout the state. they're concerned about their jobs in their future. and you support the nominee. i think he can pull this off in pennsylvania. >> they are far different than hillary clinton's position and i think they will be much more favorable therefore for the people of southwestern pennsylvania. let's get back to the market for a moment. we had been talking about this rally up 163 points.

a lot of green on that screen right now. next out one thing the administration is doing the has business groups filing lawsuits. we are back with that in 90 seconds.

you can see all of it there. they did see priceline on better hotel bookings. and then there is american airlines. they had raised wages. about 30,000 employees. and as i mentioned they have the concern. it's hard to make their way back. it still negative for the week. [announcer] is it a force of nature? or a sales event? the summer of audi sales event is here. get up to a $5,000 bonus on select audi models.

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not to a story you heard it right here yesterday which i know i was the one talking to him about it. they are being sued over new rules that limit corporate versions when companies reincorporate a broad overseas and they try to get a better tax rate in doing those types of mergers. they were talking about it. they both seem like they are on the other side of this. what do you make of this i think the lawsuit is appropriate. they created us this for one specific reason. making this a lot for one

company that something i think they should be sued over. >> what do you think your position is on the big picture issue trying to get better tax rates because i don't like the ones we have here. they try to get a better rate somewhere else. i have a trouble if you have all of your management here and you're making money overseas. that money is not coming back. the bigger problem here is why are they going overseas to begin with. the perspective of this the joint taxation committee said at the corporate inversions it would cost about $3 billion per year. when you had $3 trillion that's coming in 99.9 percent of revenue is still untouched. the problem that you had is why these companies move over. were about the only industrialized nation in the

world that has a double taxation policy. you still pay full federal tax on your u.s. income. and right now it's stain overseas. it's not coming back unless you find a way to compete with the rate that they are charging. we just head this comment hillary clinton is making a speech in washington dc at this hour. president obama does not get enough credit for the economy the president doesn't get enough credit. what is your take. that is something there. they take a lot of credit for that. hank paulson does. we had 121 million full-time jobs in 2007. most of these jobs have been added any jobs is better than

none. the trend is going down. it might not be an economy. from where we were we knew we would come back. but the rate of recovery has been one of the slowest of all time. i don't know if you should take credit whether it is the right word. i measure from the very low in the very high. that is what politicians do. because we have no policies coming out of congress they continue to go south the first tenure in our history that we have not had over a 3% gdp growth. the obama administration making progress in bringing or pla

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>> with cnet still very difficult to detect the small cells of terrorists. they are determined to kill the innocent. that was president obama yesterday morning about isis here but today's news it is on target to hit its goal of 10,000 syrian refugees coming into the u.s. i this september. immigration analyst is next up here and what should we make of this. given what has happened we should be very worriedhat they are actually hitting the goal that they set out to achieve. i don't think there was any chance that there were can hit the goal.

they set the number of 10,000 by the end of september. because they are hosting a refugees summit other countries are testified at a congressional hearing the end of last year and it was a state department person. at that time they send the screening was so tough she didn't think it would be possible to reach 10,000 people by the end of the fiscal year they are cutting corners and rushing people through. he won what they tell us on the betting is that it can take 12 to 18 months that they can use biometric devices to

have people more bedded than they could ever be so where are the numbers wise now and if you're taking 12 to 18 months where would we be when we would really get to $10,000. >> they were saying 18 to 24 months. and right now to speeded up they are cutting it down to three months so they have clearly cut corners but the real issue is is it even possible to screen people from a country where government doesn't the government doesn't exist. we can't call up the damascus dmv to get records. i just can't be done and it's a stimated t to bring a syan refugees to the u.s. as itdoes r

jordan. that's what we should be doing helping more people for the same money. i do have to go to breaking his right now. justo donald trump is expected to endorse the speaker of the house paul ryan in his primary and he's expected to do that tonight in green bay wisconsin. this could change but to highly placed republican sources say that is the plan right now that's how things work in the trump world. but the expectation and we are emphasizing that that is a plan right now he will endorse paul ryan tonight. this is going to indicate that he is now there. we will watch tonight and see. we will break it all down on the jobs report and everything else going on when we come back at the top of the hour.

neil: let's go back to breaking news. it is john roberts who has been covering the campaign that donald trump is expected tonight to endorse paul ryan. it took him a while to get there. he has a rally in green bay wisconsin and according to john's reporting to sources close to the situation the expectation as were talking to you is that he will do this tonight. but he's careful to point out you never know with donald trump until the event starts tonight. well had more throughout the day. stocks are jumping today. we have have the big boost from the jobs report and is this a good sign for the economy in a bad sign for donald trump? maybe that's going too far. one more hour to go. in addition to what we told you about announcing what it's doing as a big speech on the economy coming on monday you

will watch that on this very program because it set to begin at 12 noon eastern time and it will be the start of what they are having his big economic rollout. before i even ask about the economy that were expected on monday what you think of that back and forth with trump and ryan. now apparently he's going to endorse him what you make of this. i think this is what he loves to do play with everybody and he doesn't really want to go all in with the paul ryan he want to get admissions from him i think he thinks is a power move for him but ultimately of course is can support him this has been is been a back and forth since beginning and he really needs to do that. it adds to what many people

are calling unforced errors one after another from trump. if you're going to endorse him anyway talking the way he talked the other day he's one of those. >> he always does this and it really i think his playbook is any publicity is good publicity. we get talking about this at the end of the day he supports paul ryan but i think he likes the media attention and it keeps the story focused on him when everybody on the republican side is telling him cut it out let's focus on hillary here. when everybody knows how we have to watch tonight. let me ask you this about the economy especially after the jobs report today. is it better than expected in terms of jobs added. they are saying it's a big economic speech. i thought he missed the boat on the gdp port. instead he was focused on the

family controversy and it didn't get a lot of attention. now we get a report that seems like it's pretty good is this strike to for trump or what you make of this. jobs are to be going to be the most important issue for voters. and trump does have an opportunity to contract himself with hillary in the speech and focus on the economy. we just reported on hillary clinton's proposals are going to raise taxes by $1.3 trillion. she will completely blow up the federal debt and raise it it will be raised to 26 trillion dollars by 2026. he can contract this and say i had employed all of these people i'm actually offering plans to start paying down the debt.

these are big issues for voters and if he can contract himself with hillary that will serve him well. neil: should he continue to talk so much about trade? i understand he is targeting certain voters in certain swing states even though he is trailing in states like pennsylvania and ohio. should he try to shift even on the economy to the things you are talking about the growth method that haven't come through i think he should focus on both he's really been talking about trade a lot which i think is smart because that's an issue that aligns with a lot of people on the left in the right he should keep hitting that anything he will because the report coming out is that his advisors are still hitting on the trade issue and i think as he expands and talks about the debt and cutting taxes those will be winning issues to get more conservatives on board.

we will get that endorsement. thank you for that. neil: it was more than we expected it to be. but long-term unemployment that is on charge -- unchanged. let's bring in the former assistant secretary of labor. what is really happening in the jobs picture in your view. no growth economy labor force participation wages are basically flat. the longer term trends longer-term trends really speak to the truth of the matter and quite frankly i've been listening to the narrative all morning we need to stop focusing on this monthly jobs report as a false indicator you get the argument that you have to have a certain number of jobs being added and that will bring the unemployment rate down over time.

it's false indicator because , because it's too skewed. what is really wrong behind this and i've been watching labor data for 25 or 30 years as a methodology is over. it would be like measuring tv audiences with face-to-face interviews out in the street. until they bring some new technology and that gives you point-of-sale measurement techniques and quite frankly can be litter size. now as a follow-up to that what is the best indicator that you look and say this tells me where we are in the economy during we are a free enterprise economy. the lois lowest is supply and demand. if there is a supported -- shortage of supply the wages will start to go up. it is a pathetic.

i mean substantially move up. even a third of the population out of the labor market. until it decides it wants to come back in there just to stay flat. if you were advising him given what you've told me what would you tell him to emphasize, which points should he be making. i work for ronald reagan and you know president reagan really well. it would give him this advice. he would say to him i'm turning over in my grave with the way you're conducting yourself. start focusing on the benefits of the american people the wealth creation of the american people and put all this nonsense aside. for the lowest end of our economic spectrum. >> that is pretty strong on

how reagan would see things. i wonder if trump will change his tune here next week or be able to get himself focused on what you're talking about or do you think it's too late? >> he might take a moment to pause and say i do have to change directions ronald ragan is a beacon of our party. he ran for president under and he should really think about whether he is reflecting the values that ronald reagan would embrace. we appreciate it. we do have more breaking news to move onto right now. we are now hearing that he declined to join the trump economic advisory council. instead he is considering running his own super packet that's pack that's focused on regulatory reform. i saw those names.

i said why isn't carl on the list? >> good question. he's a type of guy that doesn't like to get too close to the sun so to speak. he does some tv i don't think he wants to be directly involved in the campaign i don't even know if he has written a check yet and he has a lot of money to write checks. my guess is some of the controversy surrounding the campaign is getting to him and i will say this it's funny because carl said he found out that he was a major supporter and treasury secretary for donald trump while he was watching tv one night. he wasn't exactly embracing the whole thing up front. he thinks he would be a good president. a type of guy that's very careful until he sees much more substantive stuff out of donald regarding economics like organ again on monday.

we have some interesting news from people close to the trump campaign. just as a job just make john was saying he's likely to endorse paul ryan but you never know. it will be very heavy on his tax plan so that's good a lot of people are saying get back to taxes and high regulations. the participation rate is still pretty lousy. there is nothing compared to what we need. unemployment is flat. this is still not a great economy i think you will see him attack the record. the draft as of today. very heavy on regulations and here's something i think is going to be interesting. he's gonna say we need our banks to lend we also need not

to have another financial crisis i will tell you this for a fact that he put in personally the republican plank to have separated investment in commercial banking before the clinton administration when they got rid of it and allowed citigroup to be graded. that's for you can trace the start of the financial crisis. they were huge from what i understand he will enter -- he will interest that. he is going to talk about a banking system where tanks are made smaller broken up but the regulations come off as they are made smaller. as a very smart thing to say that was in my view they did push the risk-taking to another level. he of the less risky situation. they are able to lend at least.

i do think politically it's interesting what you're telling us here. he will focus on taxes and regulations there won't be as gigantic focus on trade which only gets him so far in a place like pennsylvania where a lot of people would vote for him i'm sure he will bring that up. i think he will broaden it. as of now trade will be there the stuff that i heard that stood out to me was bank regulations and how making at the bank's smaller but the ability to lend and it's fascinating. it will be an interesting debate. he put in that provision. it effectively breaks up commercial pics. that created the road to toxicity with the financial crisis.

wall street is not the most popular place in the world. let's make it safer so that wall street can't take us down this road. then you can score points. i never understood why the republican party never embraced the notion. because they are so big. and the fact is if you made them smaller with bringing back glass ceilings. remember what is interesting about this i can never understand why they didn't jump on this. you're saying where you have insured deposits it's combined with the risk-taking entity. they will never let that entity go down because they would have to make up the insured deposits in a sense the federal u.s. taxpayer i

could never understand why they didn't say you want to take risk where you don't get to the deposit insurance. so the last part i will ask you blake was on. reporting on this. and there has been the talk that the organ had some new tax rates unveiled at some point you will see this new tax plan. we may not see that on monday. maybe they wanted to rush the speech out. at this point it didn't look like that would be included. what i heard is that monday will be the influence of steve moore. two of the economic advisers. the lower rates that will be in the speech i heard as of now. but there will be trump twist on it.

it's good to be something of his own in there. he's can we talk about stuff he talked about before some of the loopholes they have given them a huge tax advantage there. a lot of people think you should get rid of that. my point is you might see something on the private equity tax incentive the carried interest. that was monday at noon. if he goes through this endorsement he is can it try to get himself on track.

>> the united states did not pay ransom for that hostages. but one of the hostages has spoken out and did so right here on the foxbusiness network. it's all coming up next.

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trish well had more on this at the top of the next hour. michael rubin is with us. what do you make of that michael? the hostage said we are waiting for one plane to come in. >> it's clear this was a ransom they are calling it a ransom as well it says it absolutely was a ransom. it seems to be arms for hostages the sql. what is the fallout then as we go forward it's a big story for a few days and then something else happens. what is a long-term fallout. what happens doesn't stay there. like by the way we more or less did with the hostage exchange and then ultimately what that says to everybody as

americans are the path to prosperity. it puts a put the target on their back. and not something which we are to be living with for years if not decades to come. >> i was watching the news conference yesterday. he basically said this is can happen. white house press secretary said everybody knew this is can happen. then if you accept that the timing of it on the same day if the money didn't come with the money have been released. you still have that perception problem. it looks that way whatever it is. i don't think the president's spin is can a stick care. here. during the course of negotiation we also released or dropped charges again who were imprisoned and tries to

circumvent the sanctions on iran. they came back to the american negotiators. we need a little bit more just to show iran that we have that. that's when the $400 million was offered. back in the 80s when this happened as soon as the last planeload of money came three more hostages were taken and that seems to be what was happening again. to your point there are other iranian americans being held there. we had one that was never released. but after this deal was made they quickly seized more americans and seem to be holding out for a second deal. ultimately this is money for hostages. trish will talk more about

that. thank you very much for coming on. we appreciate it. it has been down today. gas prices however a big deal in the summer continue to hover around $200 this summer.

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connell: we do now have breaking news out of washington d.c. hillary clinton taking questions from rorters, which in of itself is breaking news but she rarely does that she has been taking questions after wrapping up a speech at an event in d.c. she said something very interesting about the whole email controversy and criticism she has had being less than truthful last few days. started with the chris wallace interview on "fox news sunday." here is what hillary clinton said moments ago. watch. >> the director comey had said that my answers in my fbi interview were truthful.

that is really the bottom line here. and i have said during the interview and in many other occasions over the past months that what i told the fbi, which he said was truthful, is consistent with what i have said publicly. connell: now she went on in the next breath of that to say that she may have quote, short-circuited, short-circuited in describing the fbi's chiefs findings. what she said to the fbi consistent to what she said publicly, but she may have, in these interviews and other things where she has been talking about it recently, short-circuited. just in from hillary clinton the we'll talk more about that coming up. and meanwhile to get back to the markets for a moment. we know stocks are up. oil is not. it is down today. it has been a volatile week. average price for gasoline has been around two bucks a gallon. 2.12 today. 50 cents cheaper than it was a year ago.

to former shell ceo john hofmeister people want to know as they plan vacations, where is oil going from here, john? >> i think we expect next several months, more of the same, fluctuation, volatility, 40, $50 a barrel range. it's a good deal for consumers right now but it is not a good deal for the oil and gas industry because we're not investing replace existing production. we are postponing future investments that will create future increased production, so we're going to be headed for shortages in a few years. connell: which of those stories, i know your bias being a long-time oil man are more important, the strength of the oil and gas industries, as you say the long term or short-term consumer concerns we might have in what is a sluggish economy? >> i think high-priced gasoline is unfair to consumers. and the high-priced gasoline we experienced during the you were

previous period until this downturn was too expensive, too high, but was on basis of restrictive oil and gas policy in this country and in other parts of the world. where, in other words we restricted the production of oil by not allowing leasing to occur, by keeping most of the outer continental shelf off limits. if we continue to restrict access to oil and gas, then we will get back in a position of grossly unfair and very high prices to consumers, probably by 2018. connell: if we keep going down the road though, that you describe that we're going now to, bring it back to a big story today which is jobs, is this industry going to be one that really, really lags in terms of job creation, oil and gas? >> here sun reported fact. nearly 400,000 americans have lost their jobs in the last 18 months, and you don't hear a word about it from official washington, not a word.

if 400,000 postal workers lost their jobs or 400,000 auto workers lost their jobs, it would be the talk of the town. not a word from our national leaders of either party on the trauma has been inflicted on this industry because of failed energy policies in this country. connell: the only thing we hear about whether prices are up, and how it affects consumers. we don't hear about the real people that work in the industry. john hofmeister, thank you very much. we always appreciate your time. >> thank you. connell: on markets, stocks are up 57 points on the dow. jobs are up, right? good sign for hillary clinton? maybe, the email controversy is still plaguing here. she just faced these questions and we're going to have more, more expansive comments from hillary clinton on what she said, how she phrased things, taking questions, which she rarely does, we're back in a moment. a symptoms kept coming back on my long-term control medicine. i talked to my doctor and found a missing piece in my asthma treatment with breo.

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connell: so back to this breakings news out of washington, d.c. that we talk about a few moments ago. when you know it hillary clinton take as few questions from reporters which she doesn't do often sometimes we get something newsworthy. listen how she phrased things how she handled the questions about her email controversy. >> i may have short-circuited, for that i may try to clarify. chris wallace and i were probably talking past each other, because he could only talk to what i had told the fbi.

connell: liz macdonald and jonas mack pharis -- ferris in the studio. she may have short-circuited liz. she is talking about the "fox news sunday" interview where she accused lying to chris wallace. that is interesting way to put it. have you ever short-circuited? >> often. it is frustrating, there are a lot of words used by hillary clinton to explain what is going on. what the fbi found flat-out, 110 emails contained classified information when they were sent or received and they were marked classified at the time. period. end of story. full stop. connell: just say that. >> just say that, you know, i'm sorry. i made a mistake. stop with the spoke truthfully. which is a stretch. james comey said we don't have proof to conclude we lied. it is stretch to go from saying

i spoke truthfully this is more top spin. it is frustrating. connell: feels a little bit, jonas what people criticize trump for doing, you have a lay up, the ball has been passed to you, instead of taking the lay-up, you dribble around the basket and talk about something completely different. the jobs report today, you would think if you're hillary clinton stay on message about that. hey, this is why she doesn't take questions from reporters very often. >> reporters ask about this type stuff. you talk about trump, we understand that she did this, she put the emails in her basement of house. micromanaging confidential email this is wrong. and she has to careful crafted way explaining what she did it is hard to remember how you say that when you're being grilled seven days a week and on the campaign trail. trump is also older and has, says crazy stuff more so -- that is really got not to be heart of how we learn about what is better for country. >> to jonas's point it becomes hard, when you make it hard,

when you put the top spin on it, get overly technical and legal listic answers say, yeah, you know what, the fbi found i sent or received 110 classified emails, marked classified at the time. i was wrong. i made a mistake. connell: on a different topic a bit, we're talking about, i want to play part what will be on our program, "wall street week," on the fox business network. he is talking here who is better for the economy, whether it is trump or whether it is hillary clinton. we'll talk about this. this is sneak-peek what you will see tonight. >> the devil you know versus unknown, right? with hillary you will get one to 2% growth as far as eye you can see. with trump, you have a chance if he embraces pro-growth reforms on taxes regulations we could get 3% growth which would drive revenue, which would drive earnings. connell: or, the polls are telling us could get someone not seen as being fit or qualified to be president. that is one of the main things came out on the polls this week. >> yeah. connell: they see hillary clinton for whatever it is

worth, don't like her and trust her but see her steady, dependable. >> won't rock the boat. here is the thing. take out the government jobs, state, local federal, in the last report, average it out, peter boockvar did that, 169,000 for the average for the last six months. it was trending well above 200,000, 2015, 2014. we're going steadily down since 2014. the animal spirit, dynamism has been sucked out of the u.s. economy. small business growth is now 20% lower than it was prerecession levels. connell: so, trump will make a speech on monday, right? do you think, jonas, there is some, something there that these pro-growth policies that are apparently going to be presented by mr. trump on monday could lead to you know, substantially higher growth? that is something worth benefiting on? >> i don't think any politician's policies will turn a 2% economy into a 4% economy. that is not a dig on trump however there is truth in the exchange we just heard. i think hillary is government

bond 2% return. very reliable, not much too it. making more government and less private sector, smoother but slower growth economy. trump dynamic is what i call the gordon gekko effect. we don't know what the public will behave like in trump economy. could go into retro '80s mode, sluggishness, negativity since the last recession might fade away. businesses might behave differently, spend more money, not because of policies, because there are not any specifics that are blatantly going to cause growth but it's a weird, what is not big government anymore, it is not old days, somehow things are bert we behave differently. more psychological effecthat is the upside. risky stock, donald trump stock. like buying casino stock, could go bankrupt or up 10% a year. policies could backfire. the trade thing could lead to trade wars. could be a major recession. >> backdrop to what jonas is saying, bank of america,

merrill lynch, michael hartnett, an economist there, really central bank action, global central bankers cut interest rates 666 times since lehman brother's collapse since 2008. that, at play here, massive intervention by a global central bankers. connell: you can decide on monday after hearing the economy speech, if you want to buy the trump stock as you say. thank you, guys. jonas and liz. >> sure. it is a derivative by the way? we don't know. connell: the battle to win over key states to follow up on this point is heating up. trump is trailing in all of them in recent polls. all the big swing states. find out what states donald trump still thinks that he can pick up, if he can get things turned around, when we return. we'll be right back.

reporter: good afternoon, live on the floor of new york stock exchange, i'm lori rothman with your fox business brief. all right, stocks are rallying today. the dow up almost 1%, thanks to a second consecutive month ever stronger than expected job growth. the s&p 500 index at 2181, well, that is a lifetime high. the index has to close at 2175 to finish and hold up in the lifetime high territory. let's have a look what is pushing the s&p to these lofty levels. merck up 7 1/2%. a rival drug trial failed. so that is benefiting merck. kraft-heinz up 4% after

reporting better-than-expected earnings thanks to significant cost cutting. priceline dot-com, a good earnings report. a lot of people are booking hotels with them. shares up 4%. quickly bristol-myers squibb down 5%. cancer drug fails. let's get you back to "coast to coast."

connell: all right. this ask some story here of high-tech thieves in texas. they have been out there stealing cars and doing so with

their laptops, using laptop computers to steal cars. adam shapiro is with us now from the newsroom. give us the details on this, adam. reporter: i want to show you video. because they caught the thieves red-handed. here is what is going on. they were able to use laptop to break into certain jeep vehicles as well as dodge pickup trucks, starthe vehicles using the laptop and then taking advantage of the software within the car, then drive it away, they were taking them to mexico. so we got a statement from fiat chrysler. what they told us, this is a quote, fiat chrysler takes the safety and security of its customers seriously, quote and incorporates security features in its vehicles that help to reduce the risk of unauthorized and unlawful access to vehicle systems and wireless communications. houston police after getting several complaint about this and tip from homeland security, department of homeland security, were able to set up, don't want to call it a sting but concentrated in neighborhood

where they were taking place. they caught two people who have been charged. they don't say if this is the end of it. because you can download software mao makes it possible to use a laptop to steal the car. connell: a little bit tood there. >> a little bit. connell: adam, thanks. let's go back. jobs were added in the month of july, more than expected but the number of long-term unemployed, that remains unchanged. we bring in jeff flock, in gary, indiana, with some workers who are not feeling the boost that the numbers show us, right, jeff? reporter: labor force participation rate so important, connell. i come to you a place where a lot of people have given up looking for a job. this is gary, indiana. you see how the storefronts, chained, boarded up, the rest, this chain is so rusty, it has been there a long time. people have given up. look at labor force participation rate, it came up by .1 of a percent last month.

look at 10-year trend on that, it has been trending down for a very long time. who is to blame for that? some people here blame the economy. other people say they blame other people. listen. >> they say forget it. they say forget it. i find something somewhere else. so. reporter: leave town? >> yeah. most of them leave town. >> they're not looking in the right places. when you walk into somewhere, you got to look like you want a job. reporter: so, who is to blame? well, at this point, probably a lot of people potentially blame. this is town, once proud town, big manufacturing town, not so much anymore. i leave you with a picture of the old american state bank, which got turned into a city office. now, pretty much of a rusted-out hulk. a lot of this town looks like that. connell: jeff flock in gary, indiana. that brings pictures and real stories to the next story we'll

talk about, that is the presidential election and fight for the battleground states. a lot of what jeff is talking about, battleground states whether you're looking at numbers or florida, certainly michigan, new hampshire, definitely pennsylvania. here's the thing. donald trump made arguments there that might resonate, hillary clinton is leading in every one of those states. former deputy assistant to president bush 43, brad blakeman is with us. we put up a few. put up any battleground polls right now she is up over donald trump. say what you want about the national polls where he is also struggling, this is real big trouble for trump. how does he turn it around? >> the way he turns it around, start focusing on economy. that jobs report you just talked about, the people who are underemployed, the people who left the job force, look at the polls that suggest that more than 3/4 of the american people feel that america is going down the wrong track. if trump is successful businessman outside concentrate on economy and our national

security, immigration, he has got winning arguments everywhere. we must win florida, we must win ohio,. connell: pennsylvania. >> don't win the two states we'll not win at all. we have to pick up pennsylvania if it can be done. i think it can be done because of trump's resonating with the rust belt. that brings in the important state of ohio. these are important things that hillary clinton has told them, especially to coal miners. you're out of business. donald trump has unique appeal to the voters. connell: i wonder if it is enough? like pennsylvania, by the way if you think he can win the presidency, tell me which state he will win pennsylvania other than if he loses there, if he wins florida and ohio, he has to win pennsylvania, in sub bush, around philly, act at this trade argument may not work in western pennsylvania. looks like he is down fairly significant margins in that state specifically.

>> in the urban areas, areas you suggest, philadelphia particularly, and pittsburgh, we are "outnumbered," republicans in registration alone. so that means we have to work a lot harder, not only to motivate our base but to get independents and conservative democrats to come out way. trump has to do that. if in september, i'm talking about the first week after labor day, these polls persist, he will have a hard time turning this thing around. connell: some argue it is getting late. but already argue 5th. >> there is some time. connell: thank you, brad. we'll get back to the hillary clinton comments we told you about earlier in the hour. she was an at event in d.c., this is very interesting, about what she said about she said in the past. we'll talk about that and more breaking news as "cavuto: coast to coast" continues. you pay your car insurance premium like clockwork.

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>> i believe that president obama does not get the credit he deserves for leading us out of the great recession. [applause] let's not lose sight of the real pain many americans are feeling because because the economy has left them behind. connell: what? you're saying president obama doesn't get enough credit but let's not lose sight of the pain people feel when copy leaving them behind. only one person i know makes sense, dagen mcdowell. >> if you're trying to run for president and kowtow to the president and not acknowledge the pain and malaise. connell: wasn't the same sentence. same speech, same appearance. same -- >> she is trying, i mean, she is having her cake and trying to eat it. connell: i guess. >> as well but i don't know how

that you get past, i don't know how you get past, despite the good jobs numbers, hey, it was a good jobs report. connell: yeah. >> but you still have this sense of people being dissatisfied in this country because their wages haven't grown in 10 years. because you've got people who are not participating in the labor force, that is still near a four decade high. the economy isn't growing. it grew 1% to start the first six months of the year. slowest recovery since 1949. i don't know how she explains that away. policies are more of the same. promising more of the same but different results. connell: if trump could get on issue and stay on it, he will try to monday and keep hitting her and hitting her, talk about nothing else maybe he would start to come back. one much our viewers was saying, hey listen, i have been to rallies i've talked about the economy. i have been there too. he talks about 20 other topics. they are all over the place.

if the other topic is more controversial, news of the day, people pick up. it is not as focused. one of the reasons he is down so much i would think. >> i said this before the conventions even, got to stop talking to people in the room, talking to 120 million people who didn't vote for him in the primaries, republican primaries season. what he needs to focus on is what, is the overarching message of the government has been trying to take control of our economy and take control of your money and your life in every way in the last seven 1/2 years. i want to get out of the way. the only problem is, when he doubles down and says, hillary clinton infrastructure plan, i'm going to double it. connell: yay. >> as conservative you listen to that, that is bigger government. that is not what you want to hear from a republican. connell: i have to do my favorite thing, stop talking. >> happy birthday. connell: thank thank you, dagen. more on trump and paul ryan and on "cavuto: coast to coast."

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connell: stocks having a nice rally with the dow up after the jobs report. on monday the big donald trump economic speech as the campaign is calling it beginning as the show is at noon eastern. stay tuned for trish reagan. trish: presidentbama is defending the iran deal saying it is not random despite what appears to be overwhelming evidence that in fact it was. welcome to "the intelligence report". the interview you saw here first on "the intelligence report," one of the four freed american hostages describing the night of his release. >> the plane was there, pilot was there, waiting for another plane, until that plane doesn't come he