better future, free fromterror. theirs is a war story that deserves to be told. i'm oliver north. tapped. >> woo!ver north. tapped. with the election closing in, everyone's focusing on these numbers. but should they be focusing on our central bankers? the markets on edge over whether the federal reserve will hike rates or not on wednesday. and some here say that decision may decide who wins this november. hi everybody. i'm in for brenda butner. this is "bulls and bears." gary smith, john, along with katy and jessica. welcome, ladies and gentlemen. john, if the fed does hike interest rates next week, which nominee would benefit the most? >> there's no doubt about it, donald trump would benefit the most. and donald trump would want

rates to be raised next week. because if you postpone until december, he's going to have to deal with that if he becomes the president during his first two to three years, which is going to be tough for whoever becomes president. you look historically, whenever you have times of conflict, specifically war, the incumbent party is almost always re-elected. but in times of economic distress, look at really bad times like herbert hoover, st stagflation under jimmy carter, you always have the incumbent party ousted in that case. and i think right now if you see -- we saw rosengren, the fed chief from boston came out just a week ago and talked about just a quarter point rate hike and the market was down 400 points. now, a quarter point is not that big a deal. it's what their language is going forward. they're talking about raising interest rates over 2% by 2018. that is going to be tough for the next president to deal with. if they do it next week, that helps donald trump. >> gary b., rate hike would be good or bad for trump? >> i agree fully with john.

i think he's made some very astute points. i want to approach it from a different perspective, kind of a macro economic perspective. you know, i think the economy is really treading water right now at best. we have such slow growth. so really the only thing that people see as positive, and it has been, has been the stock market. why has it been positive though? we've had these ultralow interest rates seeming for an interminable amount of time, if the fed raises rates -- i actually think they'll probably hold off, but if they do, i think john's right. the market goes down. because that's the only thing propping up the market right now. the market goes down and people say, my gosh, we don't have jobs, we aren't earning anything, we can't afford homes. and now we see our 401(k)s shrink. i think trump is a shoe-in then for the presidency. >> and, katie, people often make up their minds way in advance on how they feel about the economy.

and this has been the worst recovery since at least 1949. >> well, right. and you couple that with hillary clinton essentially running to be president obama's third term and she's going to have a major problem if the fed decides to hike rates. donald trump is already trusted on the issue of the economy. if rates are hiked, we'll have a somewhat of a panic, not only on wall street but as already mentioned on main street in terms of those people who have 401(k)s. and if it happens next week, it's going to happen during president obama's tenure, which has been a terrible record when it comes to the economy. >> and jess, a lot of people think the federal reserve won't hike rates next week because they don't want to hurt hillary clinton. >> yeah, i've heard that. that's the theory donald trump has been floating when actually we know that the membership of the committee it's five political appointees and seven who are not political appointees. he's actually gone back and forth. first he said it was a political decision then said janet yellen is great and then back to a political decision. but i want to agree with the

panel for part of this and say i think it would hurt hillary clinton if we have volatility. but i would like to add this week we just found out that median household income went up $2,800 from last year, which i think is the biggest spike we've ever seen and poverty rate dropped by over a percentage point. these are important indicators adding onto that the 15 million private sector jobs we've gotten. you know the rest i'm going to stay there. i'm going to have to defend the obama economy a little bit there and also say all the polls indicate that wall street and the business community trust hillary clinton to be the steward, not donald trump. >> but donald trump polls better on his handling of the economy. >> she was up five in a recent poll on that. >> fox news -- i'm citing home poll. >> all right. >> i'll point out retail sales were down for the first time since earlier this year last month. >> mitt romney polled well on the economy, i don't think that's going to lock in any election. if the market doesn't tank, then raising rates before the election, which i think is going to happen even though it's an unusual call at this point,

would actually help hillary because the perception, wrong or it's totally a conspiracy theory that the fed is supporting the economy, that it's really a recession or a depression if we didn't have 0% rate it's all going to come crashing down. you make that myth go away by raising rates a little bit. it shows you could go off very good economic news we just got, that's the best news they got at the fed in about a year or two. the market might not tank this time because of that. and all of a sudden the fed isn't supporting the clinton administration, which is the perception even though it's not true. and i think it actually helps us we're finally out of the '07 crash. we don't need to have 0% rate, i say that's the call to make. >> but interest rates if you look back historically, what interest rates do and what the federal reserve does, john, does impact the election. let's not forget the double digit interest rate on the 10-year treasury in 1980. and the status of the economy then certainly helped ronald

reagan. >> yeah, it certainly helped. and i think you would say that the fed right now has really been able to help this administration. i don't know if they're political in that or they're just trying to help the administration because the economy is suffering so bad. and the economy is not doing well. look, it's not in a recession. it's not in oppression, but it's not doing well, but we have 121 million full-time jobs right now. that's almost exactly what we had in 2008 before the recession. the jobs that have been added have been part-time jobs that have come online. jobs that have been replaced with jobs that are not quite as good jobs. household incomes are down since 2000, when you talk about poverty, give me a freaking break. it's gone from 17 million in 2000 to 47 million right now with food stamps, that goes one for one in correlation from poverty to food stamps. the one thing that has benefitted as gary b. says is the stock market. and it's because of comparisons. you have 80% of government obligated debt from germany and japan that are negative interest rates. america is the only place to put that money. and if you have the fed raising rates right now, it's going to

hurt the one thing that is booming and that is the stock market. you do it next week, that's going to benefit donald trump. >> katie, you raised this issue about how people feel about the economy going back almost eight years. but i look back at the recession when george bush 41 was running for re-election. that recession ended in early 1991. and it still hurt him, even though the recession had been over about a year and a half. >> yeah, look, economic turmoil, which i think the american people have clearly said has been a part of the decision they're going to make in november certainly something that we have to take into account here. when you poll on a number of issues despite maybe the news of the day, outside the economy, the number one thing that people vote on is the economy every single time. and so if they see that their 401(k) is losing money next week, if they see instability in the marketplace, they're going to go with the person who they feel has the best business

interests and best decisions when it comes to getting away from the obama economy and moving forward with a different solution outside of government intrusion. >> jess, you're shaking your head. >> no, no, it was a little bit of agreement. it was like quasi bobble head. i kind of agree. it's been the strange thing the last few months obama has a high approval rating but still 70% say we're on the wrong track and people say economic indicators whatever they might be they still don't feel secure, right, about their future? we have issues of people believing in the american dream today, et cetera. i think part of that is a communication problem on the part of the administration. and it's just on the ground things don't feel as good as maybe they do in the papers as it were. so i totally take that point. and i think that's something that hillary clinton really has to battle against. you know, because she has to celebrate accomplishments, but also say i'm going to do things a little bit differently because i know you're hurting. >> one final thing, gary b., i want to point out, the federal reserve, members of the fed met with this liberal activist group called fed up in august, how

about saying i'm sorry to all the favors going back the last eight years or more? how about saying sorry? so to the people who say the fed's not political, well, they are political. >> well, yeah, absolutely. whether they say they're independent or whether they're not, they're just like anyone else. they want to keep their jobs. and most of many of their jobs were under this current administration. that's why i think they're going to stand pat until after the election. as far as jessica saying that hillary wants to celebrate the accomplishments of the economy, i'd say what accomplishments? almost every metric compared to when obama took office is negative or down. there are no accomplishments in this economy. the only one they can point to is the stock market going up. and i clap for obama on that. that's about to come down if interest rates go up. >> final word. thank you, gary. and thanks everybody. cavuto on business about 20 minutes from now. neil, what have you got? >> donald trump looks like

president taft. we've got the skinny on all the unhealthy accusations on the campaign trail. let's just say both sides need a healthy dose of reality. and it's not just the candidates promising more spending, what a lame duck congress is planning that will have you fuming. we'll see you soon. >> thanks, neil. we can't wait. but up here first, donald trump trying to woo working families, touting his new child care policy. but hillary clinton is slamming his proposal as half baked. so who has the best policy to work for

"bulls and bears." donald trump and his daughter ivanka unveiling his new plan that promises to make child care more affordable for working families. but hillary clinton slamming his proposals and claiming her plan will work better. john, who has it right? >> well, their plans are not that different. and neither one of them really have a way to pay for it. hillary as she says about everything, we're going to tax the rich and they're going to

pay for it somehow. donald trump, same thing, fraud, waste and abuse he's going to get rid of and he's going to grow the economy to pay for it. the difference is trump does not allow father to take maternity leave. however, once you get past preschool, that's where things are drastically different. donald trump's voucher program for inner cities, that's a way to help with racial equality in the united states also with education. that's a huge help and something hillary clinton will not go as far because she's so beholden to the teachers union. >> hillary clinton spends more, jessica, you're sure to like that. >> well, i do love a good, you know, round of spending. well, both of them have a way to pay for it. yes, she will tax rich people more. that is a way to pay for something. but he's digging into unemployment benefits, which is something i know conservatives and liberals alike don't enjoy him doing, or anyone doing. so people are going to be getting a real fraction of their salary whereas hillary's plan which is 12 weeks versus his six weeks, you'll get two-thirds of your salary and paid out of taxes, as john mentioned right before me. but also like to add, yes, fathers aren't going to get it

but that also includes fathers in same-sex marriages, which is an extremely disturbing aspect of this plan. also, it only covers married mothers. this is not going to benefit single mothers, which is incredibly dangerous, i think. and for him to go out there and accuse hillary clinton, have not thought about these issues when she's been talking about them for 30-plus years. >> well, here's some of what the candidates' plans contain. with trump's child care plan, it's six weeks of paid maternity leave, tax deduction for child care expenses and dependent care savings accounts. you look at hillary clinton's child care plan, 12 weeks of paid family and medical leave, a cap on child care costs at 10% family income, universal preschool and a lot more spending. gary b., what do you make of these two? >> you know, dagen, maybe nobody in this panel but certainly a lot of our viewers, remember when the sears catalog described items as good, better, best? you know what these two plans

are? horrible, awful, terrible. they both stink. we're having the wrong discussion. we're six weeks, 12 weeks, you know, cuts, fraud, tax the wealthy, they're all idiotic because what both of these candidates bo and the pox on them is another entitlement program. hillary's is budgeted to be $30 billion a year. that's like what -- can you imagine medicare right now at $600 billion a year. can you imagine what this child care thing is going to be like in ten years? this is going to be another social security medicaid medicare. here's the problem, government has caused child care not to be affordable by having things like zoning, licensing, minimum wages. once again if government got out of the way, we wouldn't even need to have this discussion. but again, horrible for both of them to force another entitlement program on the taxpayers of the u.s. >> jonas. >> look, there already are -- the whole tax code is full of stuff for kids.

you literally get a tax break for being married, to have a non-working spouse with children at home, you're in a whole lower bracket, disincentivize you to go out and work anyway. as far as should they even incentivize you to buy a home, to go to school, these things don't worky only raise the cost. but most importantly would be able to get more people to work, lower the unemployment rate. they have higher unemployment rate in europe and they don't grow the population very fast there either, which would be the other point of this keep the whole ponzi scheme going. it doesn't work in europe, why would it work here? >> katie, the point is to get votes. if you don't have a plan, then you hate children. >> right. it's not going to matter if either of these plans actually get through congress, which neither of them will by the way. this was about donald trump looking at the map and going, okay, i really need votes from married women. i really need votes from single women. hillary clinton is beating me on both of those issues. and a really good way to do that is present a plan i actually

don't think is going to work. and to the point of whether each plan is better than the other, they're both terrible. i mean, the idea that government in the case of child care can make it more, quote, affordable, is ridiculous. government doesn't make things more affordable. it makes them more expensive in every single case. we had the affordable care act, for example, the exact name of the legislation for obamacare, and yet we've seen the price of health care skyrocket as a result of that. so getting the government out of this and reforming the tax code to allow people to keep more of their money and spend it on what they want would be a better idea. >> thank you, katie. and thanks everybody. cashin in just over an hour from now, eric, what do you have coming up? >> hi, dagen, president obama touting economic reports showing income growing and poverty rates falling, so we put numbers in perspective and debate which candidate has the best plan to get our economy booming again. is it donald trump or is it hillary clinton? we debate, you decide. see you at 11:30.

>> thanks, eric. we'll be watching. but up here first, just 51 days until the election and both parties pumping up their ground game. but some here are saying forget but some here are saying forget how many voters

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counts more. katie. >> well, look, this is a bad combination for the clinton campaign when you have regist registered voters in addition to enthusiasm, that means they can get out and actually cast votes. so i think that republicans are beating democrats at their own game. this was a cycle. they have a 19% enthusiasm gap over democrats, and that's going to be a huge problem for them on election day. >> jessica. >> i actually agree. i think obviously this was not a good week for the democrats. i would also add though that i think the ground game itself is going to be important. you know, clinton has -- i don't even know the percentage, but more offices in these key states. and there are going to be more volunteers out there to get people to the polls. but right now, you know, obviously donald trump has had a little momentum. >> john. >> this is like miller philmore against james buchanan. the two most unlikable candidates in presidential history. out of 300 million people we ended up with these two? this is almost next to impossible. who cares to come out and vote against the other party. >> ground game or enthusiasm, or both, gary b.? >> well, if you're -- trump has

it wrong. trump wanted enthusiasm, but enthusiasm means if you're already registered, you vote. but the numbers don't support that. you have 55 million registered republicans, you have 72 million registered democrats. so if enthusiasm is the same on both sides, then the democrats are going to win. >> but we do have a poll we can show -- >> the trends. >> -- of trump in terms of uncertainty of vote preference of donald trump versus -- >> and they're registering more than certainly we expected. >> final word. >> how much you hate the other candidate is going to drive the foot traffic this time around. >> you always have so much -- i want to give the final word to katie since you were so specific strangely. >> yeah, there's obviously more registered democrats as a whole, but again, i want to repeat that republicans have a 19% enthusiasm gap. so if republicans can get their act together and learn how to put people on buses and get them to the polls, it's going to be difficult for democrats to compete that way. but historically democrats have

been better at organizing on the ground to get people there. so it's a toss up. >> thank you, katie. thank you, jessica. both of you for joining us. coming up, the company known for taking you to new extremes could take your wallet to new highs. next. what is success? is it a professor who never stops being a student? is it a caregiver determined to take care of her own? or is it a lifetime of work that blazes the path to your passions? your personal success takes a financial partner who values it as much as you do. learn more at tiaa.org

predictions. gary b., go. >> you know what the fall tv means? it means catching up on old shows you haven't watched. netflix is the way to go, stock up 50% in two years. >> john. >> gopro, up 20% in a year, i own it. >> jonas, finally your prediction. >> first huge fine for the volkswagen people and then billions in fines for the deutsche bank people for polluting our mortgage securities. we haven't hit the germans this hard since 1945, but i think the worst is behind them.

germy up 15% in a year. >> john, you're shaking your head. final thought. >> i need a translator far fig >> thanks for joining us. neil is now. so she's too tired, and he's too fat. there you go. that sums up the week. hi everyone. i'm neil cavuto. fox on top of some over the top health accusations. first donald trump questioning hillary clinton's stamina. >> i don't know, folks, you think hillary would be able to stand up here for an hour and do this? i don't know. i don't think so. >> just saying. anyway, clinton supporters questioning donald trump's weight. >> he complains about her health. what does he do? he's 70 years old. he's not slim and trim. he brags about eating fast food every day. >> so here's trump who,