party of florida. blaze, will you pound the table and tell us, yes, there is no question about it trump wins florida? >> there's no question about it, trump wins florida, and here's why. we are seeing people already coming out and voting in droves. in counties like collier county, 7600 people came out yesterday on the first day of early voting, a record. we're seeing a lot of enthusiasm for donald trump's campaign. we are not seeing any of that enthusiasm for hillary clinton's campaign. stuart: now, i am told that the number of hispanics registering to vote in florida this election cycle is up something like 90 %. you're probably not going to get a big portion of the hispanic vote, are you? >> well, yes and no. one of the things that i've seen is that, well, the first thing you have to know is that hispanics in miami -- which is a large cuban population -- they tend to be more conservative. and be a poll just came out a

couple of days ago, the florida chamber poll, cited -- now, this is marco rubio versus patrick murphy -- but 47-47. that is a democrat stronghold, miami-dade county, and they're breaking even right now. i think we may see a large, wholesale rejection of the democrats' policies. and listen, this obamacare issue with the premiums going up almost 25%, that's going to be a big issue for floridians. stuart: is that your biggest issue? we've within reporting on the impending and ongoing collapse of obamacare and the chaos that's coming. do you think that's the biggest issue for republicans in florida? >> i think one of the biggest issues is the economy and getting this economy started again, and obamacare is just stalling the economy. but what we have to remember about obamacare is this is what happens when you have a democrat-controlled congress. the house, the senate and the presidency, when they controlled all three, we got this disaster called obamacare. is and people -- and people are

going to be reminded of that now that these premiums are going to go up 25%. and that means that the down-ballot races, you're going to see a lot of republicans getting elected as a check on d.c. stuart: you chair the republican party of florida. i don't know your politics, so i don't know whether you're gung ho for trump or you're lukewarm to him, but where do you standsome -- stand? >> look, i am gung ho for every republican on the ticket. our job is to make sure we get republicans elected from the top of the ticket to everyone, all of our republicans running for office, county property appraiser seats and city councils. we're gung ho for all of the republican party ticket because we believe the things we want for this nation are much better than what the democrats are offering. stuart: if the event -- if election, if it were held today, what's trump's margin of victory according to you? >> i think trump -- look, it's going to be close.

florida has always historically been close, and there's nothing suggested, especially in the data that we're seeing right now, there is nothing suggesting that it's not going to be close again. so we expect a close race, not what we're seeing from the polls right now. because, look, here's another statistic. 150,000 voters came out and voted in our presidential preference primary on march 15th that never voted before. these people are definitely voting in the general election. so anybody who thinks that hillary clinton is running away with this isn't being truthful. and you have to ask yourself this question, if shed had i all sewn up, why is she constantly in florida campaigning? the democrats don't even believe they have it sewn up. this is good news for donald trump and republicans in the state of florida. stuart: blaise, thanks for joining us, sir. >> thank you. stuart: breaking news. a huge settlement in the vw diesel emissions case. what is it, $14 billion? >> yes.

$14.7 billion, almost $15 billion. this was the scandal involving those volkswagen diesel cars that actually cheated on the emissions tests. stuart: that is what america charges volkswagen. >> yes. stuart: just us. that's what we take off them. >> well, $10 billion will be used to buy back all the vehicles that were out there that put out 40 times the acceptable level of pollution. another $4 billion is slated to be used on upgraded systems that will make them compliant. stuart: okay, so that's the amount of money they're going to have to spend to get it fixed. >> correct. you buy back every car that you sold. stuart: $14.7 billion. all right, peter, what do you make of this? >> this is the number one car company in that part of the world, and this is going to hurt. no matter how big you are, $14 billion is going to hurt. this shouldn't look like a windfall to our government. people were hoping for a low settlement for deutsche bank, don't be so certain.

the justice department does not like to settle, and they love large numbers. stuart: all right, peter, thank you. i might, i would consider buying volkswagen's stock. >> i think the multiples, this is the conversation like general motor, i think the multiples on these companies, they're starting to get very attractive. stuart: that's right. you liked general motors at 31, 32. >> this is a relative value. if you're going to a pay a gazillion times for tesla, for general motors that's pretty cheap. stuart: thank you. back to the breaking news on the leaks involving what and when president obama i knew about hillary's private server. i've got a quote from you -- to for you from cheryl mills to john podesta. president obama said he didn't know about the private server until he read about it in the papers. here's cheryl mill toss to john podesta: we need to clean this up.

he has e-mails from her. they do not say state.gov. andrew napolitano is here. did the president, therefore, lie? >> yes, he did. stuart: that's a strong word, and i don't like using it. >> yes, he did. look, not only did he lie, but when it became apparent -- actually before today, before these wikileaks e-mails came out involving john podesta and cheryl mills -- we have known that the president had e-mailed mrs. clinton because some of the freedom of information act requests which sought the e-mails between the president and mrs. clinton all came back with here's the reason we can't give it to you. stuart: right. >> confidential, confidential, classified, classified, secret, secret, top secret, executive privilege, etc. so not only did he know about it, but the white house staff i knew about it as well. so the president lied. now, here's an interesting theory. stuart: yes? >> as to why the fbi was

bigfooted, was told don't indict her, exonerate her. might president obama have feared that if she had been indicted, her first defense witness would be the former president of the united states to show how well accepted her use of the private e-mail server was, because her boss was using it? stuart: what's that line, oh, what a tangled web when once we practice to deceive? >> yes, yes. how the president gets around that lie to steve kroft, i don't know if you have it and want to run it, but it's very chris call clear and very crez bl. he said i learned about it the same time the rest of you did. stuart: and it won't make a blind bit of difference -- >> not in the election, i'm sorry. she has become immune, electorally immune -- stuart: what you're saying is she got away with it all. >> absolutely. stuart: how about this one? a former state department i.t.

assistant, an i.t. aide, information technology, john bentle, he's on your screen. he refused to answer questions more than 90 times about hillary's e-mails. isn't he a federal worker? >> yes -- stuart: and we the people employ him? >> yes. stuart: shouldn't he be fired? >> a very interesting theory, and quite frankly, i don't think the theory runs counter to the constitution which is that as a person, he has a fifth amendment right not to answer a question, so he doesn't incriminate himself. but as an employee when his boss asks him a question, he has to answer it. stuart: right. >> could you imagine if bill shine called me and asked me a question and said, i plead the fifth? he's the boss, he's not the government. stuart: true. >> that that's not the way it works with the feds. the feds let you get away with it. this guy is still being paid. now, he has some very serious issues, because a federal judge ordered this deposition, ordered

it under oath, ordered it recorded because the judge concluded that this person has said things to the benghazi committee under oath which are contrary to the truth and contrary to what he would say in this deposition. stuart: the election is two weeks -- >> how do we get to the bottom of this? stuart: you don't. you never will. if hillary clinton is president of the united states, it's gone. it is over. you can forget about it. >> right, right are. mr. shine wants to see me. [laughter] stuart: he's got a couple of questions, and you'd better answer -- >> i'd better answer them. [laughter] stuart: thank you very much, indeed, sir. >> you're welcome. stuart: let's get back to money. where are we? we're down just 33 points. i'm going to call that a go-nowhere stock market. fourteen days to the vote. sports, world series, game one tonight, the cubs versus the indians. last time the cubs were in the series, 1945. last time they won, 1908. the indians, when was the last time they won a series? 1948. watch the game tonight. very tense, ladies and gentlemen.

are you rooting for the cubs? >> yes. of course. i've got to go with wrigley field, the cubs. you've got to go for them. stuart: it's on fox, so watch it. [laughter] >> when the national league wins the world series in a presidential year, who wins the presidency? stuart: i don't know. >> the democrat? stuart: what's the national -- oh, the cubs. [laughter] obamacare, premiums will rise an average of, what, 25% across 39 states next year. we're going to deal with it. first, here's what trump had to say about it. >> even bill clinton admitted that obamacare, he said, is the craziest thing in the world. and he had a rough night when he went home that night. it's one of the most important reasons why we have to win on november 8th. repeal and replace obamacare. [cheers and applause] we can't go on like this. this woman owns this house, with new cabinets from this shop, with handles designed here, made here,

shipped from here, on this plane flown by this pilot, who owns stock in this company, that builds big things and provides benefits to this woman, with new cabinets. they all have insurance crafted personally for them. not just coverage, craftsmanship. not just insured. chubb insured.

>> i'm nicole petallides with your fox business brief. the tow down 35 at 18,189, the s&p 500 down a 5 points, about one-quarter of 1%, mixed bag of earnings, almost 170 s&p 500 companies report aring. new home sales tomorrow, then gdp on friday. looking at dow winners and losers, procter & gamble, rise in profit, that's up 4%. united technology, that's a winner too. caterpillar, home depot under

pressure, and watching caterpillar, british exit now weighing as the pound is weighing on names such as caterpillar and whirlpool, and caterpillar talked about weak equipment sales. the home builders are all to the downside, we did get news home prices have accelerated, near record level highs as we've had very low interest rates. tomorrow we do get new home sales. dr horton and the like all under pressure today. keep it right here on "varney" and start your day at five a.m. on fox business.

>> we have to pass the bill so that you can find out what is in it. affordable. affordable. there's a reason, affordable. affordable. affordable, affordable, affordable. stuart: did you get that? [laughter] contrary to that, president obama is now admitting that obamacare premiums are going to go straight up an average of 25% across 3w-9 states next year -- 29 states next year. all day long we've been reading horror stories that have come in from our viewers, we've literally received hundreds of them. this is from kim. our 2016 premiums are $26 a month more than our mortgage payment. be in 2016 our cost for two people was $278 a month. as of january the 1st, the same plan will be $1,177 a month. for the first time in our lives, we can no longer afford health insurance. kim, thank you very much for

bringing that to our attention. peter morici with is us, economist and business professor. look, my opinion -- this is just my opinion -- obamacare is one of the main reasons for the shrinking of america's middle class. i think it's a disaster for middle america. what say you? >> absolutely. according to the statistics, their incomes are up this year, but it's all getting swallowed up by obamacare.whole thing vios morici's second law: monkey with the markets, and the markets will make a monkey of you. stuart: well, it's the -- nice quote there, peter. [laughter] look, it's the deductibles that are getting to people, not just these sky-high premiums. it's the deductibles. >> well, absolutely. because the premiums are so high, they're opting for the bronze plans which have, you know, large, large deductibles, big co-pays and all that, and they just can't afford it. but what do you expect when you require people to buy something and then you put a subsidy on it? you don't expect the people that

provide it to raise the price through the ceiling? i mean, that's human nature. stuart: well, look, what's going to happen after november the 1st when these premium hikes hit? we already have learned that the number of new entrants, registrations, is going down. we already know that. what happens in the next six months? because you can't really get a fix in place in the next six months, can you? >> well, you can't. one thing is it's going to blow a hole in the budget, because the subsidies we have are an entitlement for the people who do register. but a lot of folks are going to opt for the fine or the taxes as the supreme court says, and so the number of people that aren't covered by insurance and have to pay for the privilege, no less, is going to go up which was the opposite of what obamacare was supposed to do. the thing is in meltdown mode. what i can't wait is when hillary clinton comes to capitol hill and says she wants the colorado solution. in colorado they have a referendum to have a 10% payroll tax and go to a single-payer

system. that's where this is going, and that's where the big showdown is going to be. not only is the top of the ticket so important, but how the congress works out. stuart: you won't get it. you can't get it. how could you possibly get that kind of very expensive plan through a congress? especially if the congress is republican, or even if they get the senate, the democrats get the senate and hillary's in the white house? i still don't think you can get that kind of plan rammed through with that kind of expense. >> well, they're going to try to sell something new. so the question is, who's going to be the better salesman, hillary clinton or speaker ryan? speaker ryan's going to have his proposal, she's going to have hers. a lot will depend on how the house turns out. if he loses 20, 25 seats in the house, he's going to be in a much-weakened position. the other thing is we know hillary clinton has very good oratorriccal abilities. she's going to say, look, every civilized nation in the world

does this, which is nonsense. the germans have a private insurance system that costs one-third less than ours. it's got mandatory coverage, but they run it right. we don't! stuart: well, what about the next six months? as this thing collapses and spirals down, is it going to hurt the economy? could it push our economy into recession? >> i don't think it could push it into recession simply because the money spent that's taken away from one place is spent on health care. so the money stays in suckerlation. this is -- circulation. this is not going to reduce consumer spending, it's going to move it around. but it is going to make consumers feel a lot poorer. this is one of the reasons why i say apparel sales lag. some people are going to have to skip meals for this thing. that couple whose premium's gone from $227 to $1,000 and change? i mean, what else are they going to give up when it goes up again? stuart: good question. i i think it really hurts the i economy and especially america's

middle class. >> don't eat on thursdays. stuart: i'll fast, okay? why not? all right, peter, i'm glad you're a tenured professor of economics -- >> my dean is in my ear. stuart: i'll bet he is. [laughter] see you soon. governor mike pence talking about media bias and the hillary campaign, specifically going after john harwood at cnbc. he's a competitor of ours. [laughter] are we going to play you the clip or what?

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makes you not want to watch the game. stuart: fascinating. but they've been lousy games. >> yeah, too many games spread over the week d. stuart: i can't understand those my knew shay rules. >> well, that's different. stuart: i haven't got a clue what he's done wrong. >> what kind of american are you? >> flag on the play. stuart: oh! good one. [laughter] governor mike pence talking about media bias and the hillary campaign, specifically john harwood at cnbc. roll that tape. >> we've especially had enough of the collusion between the national media and hillary clinton's campaign. i mean, it's just amazing. some of these e-mails come out, you find out this guy at cnbc named harwood, he actually -- after he moderated a republican debate, he was communing candidating with the chairman of hundt's campaign about how he'd been vindicated in his tough questioning of donald trump. stuart: one of our principal competitors, and any comment, liz? >> and he just can't escape the headlines.

>> you know, you'd never -- no journalist ever wants to be in the position of being compromised and being found out via e-mail that you were in communication with a presidential candidate and going soft on that presidential candidate. it's about journalisti integrity. and, you know, i'm not going to say either way about john harwood, i'm just saying personally as a journalist, it's a horrible position to have put yourself in. >> well, if he didn't send the e-mails in the first place, we wouldn't be talking about them. stuart: and he didn't know they were going to be published. >> no. stuart: peter, your comment. >> to me, it's not the fact that he asked tough questions. if he's equal tough on the other side, i'm fine with that. it's when you're tougher on one side, that feels up balanced -- stuart: and when you're working hand in glove with one political campaign, and when you're talking in the first republican debate, he was so condescending, that mocking tone to trump. oh, you can no her to this than flap your wings and fly. >> forgive me.

it wasn't just he was being a quirky journeys. -- journalist. no, or when he asked that offensive question of donald trump, there was a collective what across the country, what did you just say somewhat did you just do? >> yeah. >> and so that was a pause moment. you thought, something is going to go downhill, and it was the cnbc debate soon after. it spiraled out of control after that. >> you're right. and and trump called him out, too, very well. stuart: come on, let's pile on. he's one of our competitors. [laughter] >> he's done the right thing, he's gone underground. think i saw his face on a milk carton. stuart: all right, peter, you'll be back. more "varney" after this.

stuart: 450 seconds -- 45 seconds to what are the favorite stories of our people here today? >> white house admitting obamacare premiums have gone up by an average 25%. stuart: we've got that. >> nfl ratings down, 24 flags on

the play last night, stu -- stuart: i told you, the rules are so complicated, you can't play -- >> the walking dead. >> for your soccer lover,, i say you double the size of the goal. stuart: what? >> a true american. [laughter] >> outrage. stuart: my head is exploding. >> nil-nil, three hours later. [laughter] stuart: fortunately, we're out of time. neil cavuto, it's yours. get me out of this. neil: i cannot top that. thank you very much, stuart. all right, two weeks. it's two weeksm today. we will know who americans have elected as their next president, and it is anyone's guess, because despite the polls you are hearing, don't assume it's a slam dunk. now, the numbers certainly look good for hillary clinton, rcp poll average shows her up by about six points. that gap has narrowed a teeny bit as it has in some other direct one-on-one numbers, but the trend, is it too late to be donald trump's friend?

let's explore a little bit of this with connell mcshane. com, what are you finding out? >> reporter: we're looking at this investors business daily poll over the last few days that