he doesn't speak there until 8:00 tonight. what a show, what a day, neil cavuto, it is yours. ibly20 they have the prompter set up, he is on message and focus like a laser. ibly20 a good last week. ibly20 looking at what mister trump is doing in states like florida where he has that one point lead, seems to be a growing trend in ohio where he has a two point lead and this extends beyond that in iowa where he is looking at a one point lead. north carolina. this is a state he was trailing by double digits.

he has moved slightly ahead. i want to stress these early snapshots but we were getting 24 hours ago. remember carter/reagan 1980? do we see the same shifting stand the degree to which we did not appreciate until after the fact? david asman is with us, what do you think? the shifting sands we didn't appreciate the magnitude of. dave: they say history doesn't repeat itself but it rhymes was there's a lot of rhyming between 1980, the famous gallup poll at the end of october a week before the election showing carter was ahead by eight points, likely voters by three points. and narrowed that lead and eventually won an overwhelming

victory against carter so there is that comparison was there is the general comparison, trump is a transitional president the way reagan was transitional from the liberalism that preceded him and trump says he will be the same kind of transitional president from what we had over the past 8 years where government is increasing rather than decreasing. neil: i know there are different politicians, ronald reagan and donald trump come a lot say he is not in our camp. there is a dismissive attitude about ronald reagan even among republicans, there are those, we see what is happening with donald trump, could be making a difference with his own party.

>> he brought in the reagan democrats, a similar play than donald trump has right now, bringing in independents. the democrats crossing over as part of the working class they feel have been left behind by democrats are there is a sense of similarity. he is a transformational candidate in terms of the republican establishment if donald trump is able to pull this off a are not going to be happy with this trump victory but trump will bring in a type of working-class democrat, those who haven't voted in the past but similar to what ronald reagan did in 1980. neil: a gut feeling i have, one thing i am looking at is the weird feeling that something is

shifting going on and before the expanded fbi probe, maybe the affordable care act hike and previous stuff but something was changing and turning. it could be done before we know it but what do you think of that? how did the start and how will it end? >> i think there has been a shift and there was a shift going on last weekend it is going on again this week. the parallel to reagan and carter is a good one. one difference is reagan had the shift because he won the debate the week before the election was they only had one debate. neil: that was days before the election. >> carter had tremendous overconfidence as does clinton to some extent, giving fireworks and preparing for victory. carter he would win and had every reason to believe he could. he did well against president ford in 1976.

ford said the soviet domination was not on eastern europe and kennedy did well against nixon in 1960 so democrats tended to do better in debates and carter fought reagan was a lightweight, he learned differently that night at the debate and reagan did very well and finished the debate by saying are you better off now than you were four years ago? neil: we were noticing too, looking at the set up in miami, i wonder if you see what we are looking at here. the prompter set up. he has been sticking to the prompter, not exclusively. he has been very much on message and i am wondering if that is what is going on here. he can't keep to that. >> incredible how we see this role reversal. last couple days he has been on message with policy, hillary has

gone back to the character assassination bringing masato on stage yesterday. we see this role reversal. he has a lot of issues. there is another reagan parallel. it was carter's contention things are out of our control but we have to get used to slower growth, we have to get used to soviet domination of half the world. reagan said no, you don't have to get used to it. you could win the cold war against the soviet union, change the economy, something similar going on here, donald trump is saying you don't have to be accustomed to 1% economic growth would you can grow 5%, you don't have to grow accustomed to radical islam terrorism, you can defeat its. reagan defeated the soviet union not necessarily with us troops about surrogates, places in poland working with solidarity. the same can be done with other people fighting for democracy in

the world of islam so there are interesting policy parallels as well. neil: you are right about that. another thing in the discussion of donald trump and what a wildcard it would be, how the markets are bracing for the unknown but also remember no less than david asman's wall street journal worrying about the size of ronald reagan's tax cuts saying we like tax cuts but come on, already. there was a fear you might overdo it and in conservative media, trump has gotten that from others saying he is a firebrand, he will be all over the map but dealing with the same group. >> very similar. absolutely. there is a sense and concern in wall street, in what direction

is donald trump going to take it, there's that clear uncertainty. they feel more confident in hillary clinton presidency, not only that, but wall street donations going into hillary clinton's campaign. >> this in disingenuous, >> they don't know how donald trump governs, >> one thing you will get from donald trump. he is very intense, and working with congress, he will need congress. and and he is bullish about the economy. let's see if we can get 4% growth. this will include cutting

regulation. and the plan he has proposed, there is one way to view it and moving forward with the economic plan compared to hillary clinton who will be touching the middle-class. >> politicians -- donald trump says, why should we settle for one person, why should we settle for a meager recovery. is the problem with hillary clinton's compounding problems? >> it is coming together to benefit donald trump. the economic plan is the biggest part of his package. the highest corporate tax rate,

ronald reagan said, the same kind of economic boom that we had in the 1920s and that is what happened. if we reduce regulations, and money will come out of shelters into the economy, you will have economic growth and more jobs. neil: you mentioned calvin coolidge, you don't hear that. >> keep cool, one other thing about taxes, a lot of the criticism of his tax plan, is it would cost the united states economy. it would add to the deficit. ronald reagan everybody said the same thing about reagan's tax plan, huge tax rate cuts, we doubled the amount of revenue that came in in the 1980s. neil: the republicans in power. neil: spending is a problem. dave: there is an active

approach, the economy stood up and played their part and even though tax rates were lower we doubled the revenue that came in. all that stuff is not really calculated into the cost, so-called, of donald trump's tax plan. neil: thank you very much for the calvin coolidge reference. i want to see what is going on in miami which pam bondi, introducing donald trump. this at a time when polls have turned around in a number of battleground states, florida included showing mister trump up by a little bit. in the markets, not quite knowing what to make of this, the vix, a gauge of markets, rising ever since renewed fbi probe on the belief it could cost hillary clinton the election. not that these guys are huge fans of hillary clinton but what we have, knowing and expecting what we are going to get and all

of a sudden they don't know who we are going to get. charlie gasparino with the markets. charles: four gauges you look at for trump victory. this is like interesting. markets -- neil: they moved into that. charles: pricing in the uncertainty of the markets if someone like donald trump gets elected. neil: not an impossibility. charles: they think it is likely. look at these, the dow, from the minute the fbi probe was announced, has been down 4.2%, the dow is down. the vix which measures anxiety and trading and volatility to do stuff because preparing for something to happen is up 30% since friday. gold obviously a flight to safety, up 10%, here's the interesting one. the peso has thrown 3.4%.

because of nafta, that is bad -- my point, not saying this is good stuff. they got this wrong, taxes and regulatory policies are pretty good for the markets and you might want to buy on the correction that occurs. of donald gets elected we will see probably a selloff. and other indices moving. neil: showing the prompter, not to damone -- he has been on message. he is going to crack, tweet something in the middle of the night. they set up an opportunity, he didn't bite. charles: they believe inside trumpland they have him under control, that he will stick to

issues. neil: improving poll numbers -- charles: they went to him and said stop. this is what i heard. i am paraphrasing. you want to win, stop. what they got him doing essentially is mentioning the hillary email scandal, then go back and do policy attacks on obamacare. those premium increases is a great issue for him. the tax increase on the middle-class. neil: big issues. charles: tax increase on every working person stuck with obamacare and a lot of subsidies if you are poor on obamacare, you got to be really poor. you are part of the working middle-class. neil: three times the poverty rate. charles: looking at that economic case. the average guy out there wants to play this market, watch these

indices, watch it up to election day if he is on the trajectory, you can play the market. remember long-term if you want to be a long-term investor my view is you by on dips here. that economic plan really is good for bank stocks, very good for energy stocks. neil: we will watch it closely. i want you to be aware because he is making inroads but no way he can win. we are crunching some numbers, no ax to grind, no specific candidate to push, donald trump doesn't do this show, just looking at a phenomenon that to me does feel like 1980. i could be very wrong on that but i highly doubt it. in the meantime, what if hillary

clinton wins anyway? what if she is constitutionally damaged goods, that she would be chased by republicans and investigations in a watergate like nightmare that would create a constitutional mess, the store you are not hearing about a certain candidate and what she could face even in women.

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when the their investigations, and we don't operate, when this was investigated thoroughly, the conclusion of the fbi, and she had made some mistakes, but there wasn't anything there that was prosecutable. neil: now we have 600,000 or more emails, whether you are in the right or left, a congressman the first time, they have to be looked at. anything new that comes our way you never know. the president trying to come to the party's nominee but

compounded things. >> it was unwise to speak at all. the last round of exoneration. and hillary clinton, one of them was true. on top of the decision that was already on its face, to have this right in front of the election. and hoisted on their own petard. >> there is a narrowing on the polls nationally, a lot of it prior to the expanded fbi probe.

what did you think? the attorney general is someone who is a purveyor of the scene, what do you think is going on? >> a lot of elections get closer as you get close to election day no matter what the trends before that were, 100% name id, but also as you were talking about earlier here, what you are seeing from trump, looking back from september, disciplined when he did this, he rose and this comes at the same time hillary is getting very much off message and with the fbi dump raising the questions again not only about her honesty but her legality. she is very clearly as a factual matter on the other side of the law with classified information, intentionally dodging transparency requirements of government and lying on her state department forms that she

had to sign and repel any of it is penalty of a felony that said she was complying with all this. she is in a very difficult position of her own making. there is no one but her to blame for this. neil: i want to dip into donald trump addressing the very issue of the former attorney general. listen. >> described him as the man who kept him, john podesta, out of jail. also the one who helped lead the effort to confirm attorney general loretta lynch. now, today, in a newly released email, from wikileaks again, we learned k-6 was feeding information about the investigation into the clinton

campaign. and said, quote, it will be a wild before the state department posts the emails. remember they were waiting for the emails. podesta forwarded the emails to clinton's top staff and said additional chances for mischief. these are the people that want to run our country, folks. the spread of political agendas into the justice department has never been a thing like this that happened in our country's history, one of the saddest things that has happened to our country but with your vote you can beat the system. the rigged system. and deliver justice. so show up early and vote. show up early. the lines are incredible. the polls are all saying we are going to win florida. don't believe it. get out there and vote.

pretend we are slightly behind. you got to get out. we don't want to blow this. this is the one chance we have, it will never happen again. it is not going to happen. and four years it won't happen again. this is a movement like we have never seen before, these crowds, the enthusiasm, the love. got to get out and vote. real change begins with immediately repealing and replacing obamacare. and hillary is not going to be the answer because she wants to make it more expensive, she is doubling down. it has been announced the residents of florida are going to experience a massive, massive double-digit premium hike. now i know what that hike is but i want you to leave here happy.

i want you to think about the future after we take back the white house. let me say it is going to be very substantial. obamacare doesn't work on top of everything else. as an example in the great state of arizona which i just left premiums are going up more than 116%. it is out of control. over 90% of the counties in florida are losing obamacare insurance. lost of luck in your negotiations with in minnesota where the premium increase will be close to 60% the democratic governor said the affordable care act is no longer affordable. premiums are surging, companies are leaving, insurers are fleeing, doctors are quitting, deductibles are absolutely through the roof.

it wasn't supposed to be like this but i said it was going to be like this before it was passed because i understand how business works. obamacare never had a chance. it is a catastrophe. yet hillary clinton wants to double down on obamacare making it even more expensive. it will go up a lot. people are not going to be able to afford it so i'm not sure it matters. i am asking for your vote so we can replace obamacare and save healthcare for every family in florida and the united states. real change also means restoring honesty to our government. as you know the fbi -- did you hear about this little event? the fbi reopening the investigation. [cheers] >> reopening the investigation into crooked hillary clinton. crooked hillary, she is crooked.

[crowd chanting] >> she is a crooked one, no question. crooked hillary clinton was that term has really stuck loses anyone seen crooked hillary clinton today? that is going to be a great term for a president, right? boy oh boy, what a mess. this is the biggest scandal since watergate. now it has been reported that there are fbi inquiries probing virtually all of hillary clinton's inner circle and many of the things she has done over the years. it is about time. remember, it is a rigged system. remember. it is about time. she wants to blame everyone else for her mounting legal troubles

but she really has no one to blame but herself. hillary is the one who set up the illegal private email server to shield her criminal activities. a woman screaming exactly. it is exactly. the woman engaged in a corrupt pay for play scheme at the state department and ripped off the people of haiti. the people of haiti were ripped off. i met with the people of little haiti. anybody here? these are great people, great, thank you. hillary is the one who endangered national security by sending classified information on an insecure server. hillary is the one who lied so many times to congress and the fbi. hillary is the one who made 13 phones disappear, some with a

hammer. and she is the one who destroyed 33,000 emails after receiving a congressional subpoena. she also accepted debate questions given to her in advance by donna brazil. and then used those defense questions to cheat, it is cheating, the worst level. instead of reporting this breach to and ethics committee or whoever would listen to the breach. she got the answers cheating, got the questions cheating, and rather than reporting them, rather than saying this shouldn't be happening, she used them against bernie sanders.

she probably got them against me too except we won the debate so easily i don't think it matters. we won those debates. did you see her at the end of the debate? she was exhausted. you know what she did? she immediately went home and went to sleep. hillary is not the victim. the american people, frankly, are the victims of this rigged and corrupt system in every way. this is your chance finally to change it. november 8th. in florida's case earlier. record turnouts, unbelievable numbers, unbelievable. we are doing great with the african-american community. we are doing great with the hispanic community.

and the lines are five blocks or longer, never seen anything like it and the polls have come up, way up in florida. i shouldn't say that because i want you to go vote. we are going to pretend we are down. we are down. pretends, right? pretends we are down. we got to win, got to win bigger. we are up in ohio. we are up in iowa. up in north carolina. and great in pennsylvania. we will be so proud, we are going to make america great again. you will be so happy and proud of the country again. if hillary clinton were to be elected it would create a protracted constitutional crisis.

haven't we been through a lot with the clintons? he can't practice law, doesn't have the right to practice law. didn't we just go through this? the last thing we need is another four years of obama. this will be worse, that means isis, high taxes, bad healthcare. no border without a border we don't have a country. and grind to a halt if she were ever elected. she will be in court for her entire tenure and will be convicted. the first time she gets a subpoena from the united states congress, there shouldn't have

been a second time. and given it a second chance. this time i have no doubt that in that 650,000 emails, did you see the there are duplicates, how can there be duplicates, hundreds of thousands more than you started off with. [crowd chanting. >> wikileaks dropping some more. one beauty that has been caught, just recently, newly released, they say having a dump of all those emails. bill clinton's chief of staff,

says foreign government, this should be another one. do you remember what it is? all the money is in, right? they say all the money is in, talking about foreign money pouring into their pockets, all the money is in. honestly she should be ashamed of herself. my contract with the american voter begins with a plan to restore honesty to our government. that includes a ban on foreign lobbyists, raising money for american elections, makes sense. i want the entire corrupt washington establishment to hear and to heed the words we all will be saying right now.

when we win on november 8th we are going to washington dc and we are going to drain the swamp. drain the swamp. we are going to drain the swamp. we are going to drain that swamp. [crowd chanting] >> drain the swamp. drain the swamp. drain the swamp. drain the swamp. >> another important issue for americans his integrity in journalism. these people are among the most dishonest people i have ever met, spoken to, done business with. these are the most dishonest people. there has never been dishonesty,

there has never been dishonesty like we have seen in this election, there has never been anywhere near the media dishonesty like we have seen in this election. they won't spin the cameras to show the massive crowds. the very talented michael goodwin of the new york post just wrote today that 2016 presidential race will mark the low watermark of journalism that is worthy, if you think of it, of the first amendment. never before have so many media organizations, old and new, abandoned all pretense of fairness to take sides and try to pick a president. it is unbelievable. honestly. for instance, a great story given out to the media.

as bad as possible. parenthetically. [crowd chanting] >> so sad. parenthetically and very sadly, earnings for the new york times are down 97%. i feel so badly for them. and they tell you who to vote for. who to vote for. they want crooked hillary. this isn't about me. it is about all of you and our magnificent movement to make america great again and talking about it all over the world.

at the core of my contract is my plan to bring back jobs. right now 70 million american women and children live in poverty or near the brink of poverty. 43% of african-americans school age children live in poverty. 20% of hispanic children live in poverty. this is america. this is the united states. this is unacceptable. as your president i will go into the poorest communities for a plan for revitalization. we will replace decades of failure with generations of success. florida last one in four manufacturing jobs since nafta, a deal signed by bill clinton and supported by hillary.

here is a number you should remember because it is not even a believable number and it is correct. america has lost 70,000 factories since china entered the wto. another bill and hillary backed disaster. we are living through the greatest jobs theft in the history of the world, our jobs are going to mexico, going to other countries. china and others are making our product. a trump administration will stop jobs from leaving america and we will stop the jobs from leaving florida. my second home. i am here all the time. my second home. great place. the theft of american prosperity will end. they are stealing our

prosperity. a trump administration will renegotiate nafta and will stand up to foreign product dumping all over the place. currency manipulation by china and many other countries and the unfair subsidy behavior that is going on all over the world against us. we will also immediately stop the job killing transpacific partnership, a disaster. and hillary called it the gold standard, she lied during the debate, she lied. she lied during the debate, she said she never called it the gold standard, she lied about the line in the sand. as part of our plan to bring back jobs we are going to lower taxes on american business from 35% to 15%. we will also cash billions in global warming payments to the

united nations and use that money to support america's vital environmental infrastructure and natural resources. we are spending hundreds of billions of dollars we don't even know who is doing what with the money. we are going to spend the money here. we are going to work on our own environment. that includes repairing the herbert hoover dyke at lake okeechobee and protecting the florida everglades. we will become a rich nation again. to be a rich nation we must also be a safe nation. a terrible tragedy today has occurred in iowa. you saw. early this morning two iowa police officers, outstanding

people, where murdered, ambushed, ambushed violently while sitting in their squad cars. we send thoughts and prayers to the family of the fallen. i left iowa, most beautiful place, the treatment was so incredible, the crowds, police officers were so incredible, the job they did, two of them i did. and attack on our police is an attack on all of us. law enforcement is the line separating civilization from total chaos. you have to remember that. according to the national law enforcement officers memorial fund, firearm related police death are up 48%. this year, the highest they have ever been and there have been 14 ambushed style attacks this year alone, never had anything like this and what it is is lack of respect for our nation, lack of

respect for our leadership. to all the great men and women of law enforcement, i want you to know we are with you, we support you and we will stand by you. [cheers and applause] >> we will restore law, order and justice in america. [crowd chanting] >> usa! usa! usa! >> thank you, thank you. good luck to the people of iowa. we will work with federal and local law enforcement to keep america safe from terrorism. hillary clinton wants of 550% increase in syrian refugees pouring into our country. her plan would mean generations of terrorism and extremism spreading in your schools. neil: you are watching live and we will monitor donald trump

speaking to an audience, he commands the crowds in florida, when he is consistently leading in the latest poll and the trend is across the country in battleground states, 6 to 8 points, even better running ahead right now. what is behind this, what is causing this, the sand shifting dramatically like 1980 for ronald reagan, breaking what looked like a tie players and the possibilities, something is going on that most of the establishment media have not been appreciating.

i am no rocket scientist but it is possible something is happening. >> what is happening is people instead of looking at it from an emotional point of view, it is supposed to be a divider. that is what is really important. he has a plan, what really concerns me is for the first time in my life you have the irs, the state department is political, the department of justice is political and the fbi is political. i don't believe the country can continue to survive. neil: you mention something interesting, how can this be better than 6000 reportedly discovered when there are more newly discovered in the first place on the server, like one of those v-8 moments.

having said that do you think the email thing, the latest fbi probe is doing this? i was seeing before this he was gaining traction. maybe the obamacare stuff. what is doing it? >> predominantly when you look at the entire situation he has a message 70% of the people in this country think it is headed in the wrong direction. looking at where we are today more people unemployed, more people -- less people to work for. look at the educational system, the poor inner-city, all the politicians can send their children to a private school but you can't have a grant or charter school. we can't possibly do that because that would be unfair. look at the inner city, everything about this country and the direction we are going, i am old enough to remember watergate and two district attorney's, attorney general resigned because they would not do something illegal the president wanted them to do.

in addition, republican and immigrant stood up to nixon and said this was wrong. today it is all about politics. harry reid can tell lie after lie without any justification, and eventually say he lost of these are the things that drive people crazy. people truly care about this subject. give people an opportunity. when you talk about this, we are talking about let's get the country back to our core values was when i was growing up our core value was honesty. if you gave your were you didn't need contracts and all these fancy things. somebody gave your word it was the way it was. on honest day's work for an honest day's wage. that is what he wants to get back to and that is worth turning, not just about the emails because i don't have a lot of confidence in that. you have john podesta's lawyer in charge of this email investigation, an email that says this guy kept me out of

jail and i think it is more where is the country going, what took place, she wants four more years of the same thing. every advertisement says we are going to go into colorado, minnesota and it is just about negative, all about donald trump. 90% of the -- not the average -- the coverage of donald trump at the convention, over 90% of the when they talk about donald trump 27% -- 27 minutes on major networks and less then a minute on hillary's emails. it is unfair. the media is supposed to be the one to look after the government, to make sure what they are doing is honest and fair in the way it should be, the way it was when i was growing up. neil: if you're going after him, go after her. something is connecting and you hit on it. thank you very much, good seeing

you. >> thank you for having me. always a pleasure. neil: something is going on. probably stating the obvious. to emphasize here political sands can shift. we have a lot more in the next big states but there is something palpable that goes beyond quick polls and snap judgments, whether it is just the style or approach the candidates are taking in these final days. for many in the media looking at this it has gone from a curiously surging donald trump to the markets now saying maybe a president elect trump. we will connect those developments after this. i love getting more for less.

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>> i am standing here on behalf of latinos across the country. they are going to say loudly and clearly no trump, he is not getting away with it. neil: what the former miss universe, hillary clinton event, trying to bait donald trump and he did not take the bait. he might in his speech, he does not seem to be doing that. that could be a consequential development in this campaign, the hillary clinton folks trying to push his buttons and get them to erupt. that has not happened yet. many democrats say it is just a matter of time. what she makes of that, he is not taking the bait. what do you think? >> thank you for the opportunity to be with you today. he hasn't taken the bait.

this is the desperation the hillary clinton campaign has been operating under from the very beginning and donald trump is out there talking about policy. just yesterday in king of prussia he gave a fabulous policy presentation on repealing and revoking obamacare and how important it is to replace and i have been on the road on the 2016 destination white house tour since mother's day and that is what i am hearing out there. neil: are you getting a sense that women, offended as they might have been by donald trump's remarks and the allegations from women who said he did more than say that sort of stuff but it is just not sticking. many women are on to bigger and more important issues, the

economy or other issues you alluded to and more women than democrats appreciate are sticking or going to donald trump. >> they absolutely are. when you have traveled to 39 states around this beautiful united states, held 2200 rallies on this tour. 300,000 people. if you had heard what i have heard you would know that women are supporting donald trump. neil: how many do you think? even anecdotally these polls we get out of swing states are showing that more women than we thought are with trump. do you see that continuing? >> absolutely i see it continuing and women come up to me every day and say you are our voice, get out and tell people

women are behind donald trump. neil: thank you very much, national federation of republican women president, something going on because this surge can't just be white males, there is something bigger going on. : did you know there's a way to save up to 95%

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. neil: all right, a new poll to share. this is in the state of pennsylvania, and you notice something here, it's close to even. 48% hillary clinton, 44% for donald trump. now hillary clinton has led this state by ten points less than a month ago. if this is looking like a trend to you, well, it is. look what's going on right now in ohio. about a four point gap. had been a double-digit gap. what's going on in the polls average not only there but florida. 29 electoral votes. donald trump desperately needs those votes. in the latest polls he has a slight lead.

you're going to have to take my word for it. but again. this really doesn't quite show it as much as the actual statistics but it does show a trend that is in his favor. we can get off, that i think it's confusing people. but i will say this, it confuses me, which is easy to do. we have the washington examiner sarah westwood weighing in on this and what the trend is spelling. we've got six days to go. things could change, what are you reading into the shifting going on? >> donald trump passed 270 electoral votes is getting clearer and clearer, and hillary clinton is starting to be on the defense in states she was confident she would win earlier. one example of that months ago she pulled ads off the air in colorado. she was so confident she would win that state, now back with a six-figure ad buy in colorado, heading to michigan, a state she was confident she would win, now the shift nationally and in michigan is that donald

trump might have a fighting chance there, and remember, michigan is significant because it does have a dense population, it does have more electoral votes than colorado, and also, hillary clinton was surprised during the primary. remember, michigan went for bernie sanders. neil: you are right about that. i forgot about that. people say this is the natural trend that you would see in a campaign. polls tighten, et cetera, with dole and clinton, double digit polling gap and ended up being more like eight or so points. having said that, it's a consistent theme in the number of states and that this trend were to continue at the pace that we see. he could win the majority of these battleground states. way too early and presumptuous on my part to say, if you follow the trend over the last few days, that would be the case, wouldn't it? >> well, what donald trump already had an upward momentum

before this fbi bombshell came out on friday. that accelrate his upward momentum. neil: by the way, the fbi, the first time it's evidenced in the pennsylvania poll but showing something that was prior to the probe and long prior? >> exactly. that gets the race close enough where he has a shot. keep in mind, donald trump has a double-digit enthusiasm lead, meaning when voters are asked, they say they're very excited to vote for donald trump. voters don't say the same thing about hillary clinton. so you might see more of those voters turn out because they are more enthusiastic about voting for donald trump than they are about hillary clinton, and enthusiasm can help donald trump overcome what deficit he might have in the polls but he's got to get it close enough for the enthusiasm gap to be close enough to put him over the edge. neil: something to be said, we think the polls still underrepresent us, but if they get it within two points, thinking is that's enough to tip the balance. do you buy that?

>> i do. and that's because hillary clinton's voters get faced with this new fbi news, they might be motivated to stay home. keep in mind, that hillary clinton has a record number of soft voters. people who have reluctantly voted for her, acquiescing to vote for her because they view donald trump unacceptable. those are the people that can be dissuaded from voting because of the fbi bombshell and she has a high percentage of soft support, that's going to hurt her. neil: what about a november surprise, because the election is later, it's november 8th and not like november 2nd for jimmy carter in '76 or ronald reagan in '84. there is time for one more surprise, maybe several more, what do you think? >> that's absolutely possible. this has been one of the most unpredictable races in modern history. there is time for another bombshell to drop. early voting is dropping at a strong clip.

some votes are cast in stone, and pollsters like to wait a week before they look at the impact of news on the electorate. that's about how long it takes for people to shift opinions based on something that's occurred. for something that happened this late in the game, it would be difficult to produce a seismic shift how people are going to vote. neil: sarah westwood, washington examiner investigative reporter. i want to show you what the markets are thinking, there is more to this than meets the eye. more than a passing phenomenon. they are betting that the once totally unthinkable, totally not going to happen prospect of a trump victory is now looking more likely. why would they be down? because it's the unknown, not expected. not the kind of thing they can factor in. they like certainty and rainmen with certainty, definitely going to be this. definitely going to be this. and don't understand when it doesn't go to script. charles payne reminds me of that, trish regan reminds me of that and bob reminds me of

that. trish, what do you think that the markets have to adjust to something they didn't see coming? >> they are getting nervous, it's unexpected. if hillary clinton were to win, investors look at this, okay, nothing is going to change, we're going to continue in no-man's-land and the fed will have to be accommodative and you have the messed up washington. and we know what messed-up washington does or doesn't do for that matter. neil: they like messed-up washington. >> nothing gets done. the fed is the only game in town. you're in the sugar high environment and the markets move higher. so we know or investors know what theoretically would happen under hillary clinton. now donald trump marches into town, he's talking about all kinds of different things, right? talking about penalizing american companies that decide to relocate offshore to mexico or to china and, you know, that just presents a whole other set

of facts for investors. >> i think you are right about that. charles, you and i have gotten into this as well. this notion that let's say donald trump does pull off something of -- just incredible, wins this thing. the markets, i think you said knee jerk tanked on that, right? and then what? >> it's wait and see. and the market surprises, four years ago when the president obama won, a lot of people sold everything and said they would never go back into the market and missed a 240% move in the nasdaq. 120% move in the dow and almost 120% move in the s&p. donald trump's core economic policies naturally make wall street happy, less regulations, lower taxes. the stuff trish is talking about. do you go war with ford? okay. in that same town of mexico honda opened a plant two years ago, they spent $800 million and punch out the fit, the little bitty cars.

no way ford is going to compete with them. they're boxed in one way or the other. ultimately stocks move up because of earnings. >> and ultimately, if you have a healthier economy then you've got a healthier middle class, a middle class that can spend more, so that should be overall, and will be if that comes to pass, a good thing for the stock market. you're right, you don't want to bet against the american stock market because time's on your side, we're going to continue to prosper as a nation, but the economic policies are really going to cause earnings to come into focus in the multinational governments. neil: a lot of things change. bob, a lot of it could be some of them holding back and saying we could still see hillary clinton winning as long as the house or the senate don't fall her way, she'd have free ride to do anything she wanted. they don't know what to make of where we are, but what do you read into all of this?

>> yeah, i think clearly that it would still be a surprise if trump won. i think right now they're viewing it as less likely than brexit. look what happened with brexit, they were wrong. the market went down after brexit and then went up afterwards. it's hard to say where we're going. trish is right, the market likes to see more of the same. it's comfortable, but at the same time, you know, there is fragility out there, fragility in the economy, out in the world economy, you're seeing trade at lows, south korea just did a bailout of shipping companies because they're not selling anything, so there's fragility out there. oil prices, et cetera, they think throw this thing into question, but yeah, they didn't think brexit would happen. neil: do we still understate that trump support out there, is it like brexit that with the improving numbers, it's still not grasping? >> that was the popular vote. this is electoral college, so donald trump could win more votes than hillary clinton and

hillary clinton could be president. that's the dynamics of the whole thing. >> wow, wow. that will cause a lot of people to be -- wouldn't be the first time, but you would see a lot of not actual unrest but frustration, i think, if that were the case. >> and not good for the market. neil: bob, what if it's bigger? what if it's a trump landslide? >> you could see sort of like brexit. market's caught offguard, they go down initially but may come back up. you don't have a nondivided government. neil: you weren't even born. >> the cubs and indians are in the final game tonight. neil: i know. you never saw 36 years ago this week polls that were dead even or close to it favoring jimmy carter would end up in a 10 point ronald reagan landslide. i'm wondering if things are shifting so fast, we're not appreciating it. >> something to be said for

momentum and something to be said for the deluge of polls that we have looking at us. tracking polls, polls that are done by republican consultants. >> i like the poll of polls. one organization is the poll of polls. >> i'm trying to keep up and losing my mind. i see numbers everywhere. i will say one thing to the audience, ultimately you buy great american companies and if they're on sale for an artificial reason like donald trump becoming president. that's a better reason to buy them. >> sure, the market may go through adjustment period if he were to win, my goodness, we didn't expect this. here we are. ultimately, you are right. you don't bet against america's future, if you do, you will be proven wrong. neil: remind me, bob, some of the best companies started in the worst environments, right? >> absolutely true. caterpillar got through the depression and came out and did gangbusters, absolutely. neil: guys, i want to thank you all. guys. trish, as well. >> thank you.

neil: no ax to grind, donald trump doesn't do the show, it's not a hillary thing or trump thing, there is something palpable going on here that is showing up in the weirdest of ways in state after state, and i'm just a nerd looking at numbers that almost in unison and across the board are shifting right beneath us. a little more after this. seeing is believing, and that's why

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were trying to reach out to hulk hogan to get a reaction and said i'm in clover, brother! that was horrible, that's much better, that's much better, all right, in the meantime. new wikileak e-mails show more evidence of donna brazile and not just donna brazile coordinating with the clinton campaign and you wonder why many in the establishment media haven't been pouncing on all of this stuff. not all, but many. blake burman has the latest. >> reporter: another e-mail shows how donna brazile appears to play favorites with hillary clinton's campaign during the primary. the very latest e-mail comes from the night before the new hampshire primary. in it, brazil e-mails campaign chair john podesta she would be appearing in a discussion later that evening on cnn, addressing a report about a possible clinton campaign shake-up. brazile forwarded that conversation with a cnn producer to podesta. here it was.

he responds by writing -- brazile ended up responding saying i pushed back hard on this, and axe, so weird to attack the kids the night before the first prooim. axelrod tweeted criticism of clinton. brazile did appear on cnn that evening and the following day as you saw in the chain. podesta responded, thanks, donna. cnn last month severed ties with brazile currently the interim dnc chair after e-mails showed she tipped off the clinton campaign to debate questions. this is the next and long line of e-mails involving donna brazile and the clinton campaign, speaking of. also in today's batch, more e-mails involving podesta and cnbc's john harwood, a steady

presence in the wikileaks e-mails after harwood wrote an article criticizing the clinton campaign for releasing a lack of information. podesta writing the latest to harwood -- the point being harwood didn't want to upset the clinton campaign chairman. so that shows. back to you. neil: thanks, buddy. dagen mcdowell is taking all this in. dagen, incredible, what do you make of it? >> everybody wants to be liked, apparently, neil. journalists are the worst cocktail of arrogance and insecurity so they've got big egos and want everybody to like them. neil: speak for yourself, young lady. [laughter] >> i'll add that. neil: everybody is so smarmy,

it makes you want to take a shower. stop it. >> number one, cnn has a major problem on its hands because it still hasn't answered as to what went down. the fact that donna brazile was gone two weeks after they essentially had to fess up that they had parted ways. number one, and number two, jeff zucker, looking at a picture of him there, he called it disgusting. that was private communications with the cnn staff. but what the heck was going on? how did it know? we don't know how particularly with the debate, regarding that flint, michigan question about the one with the rash, we don't know how she found out about that. neil: by the way, if hillary clinton didn't know that that was a planted question given to her, which is a stretch, give her the benefit of the doubt, it was the exact question, and it was asked at that forum, and it wasn't the only time it's

happened, and yet no one at white house has a problem with this, i know the standard of clinton campaign response is the russians dumped these, we don't comment on these, but man, right? >> please and when megyn kelly interviewed donna brazile she said i've been persecuted as a christian. that was after she left cnn that she said that. couple of things going on here. one, this feeds right into the trump narrative that's been a hallmark of his campaign since it started that the system is crooked, corrupt. that it's a bunch of insiders scratching each other's backs and more, and the little guy and the little gal gets screwed. so definitely feeds into that but highlights the fact that all democrats stick together, something the republicans still have yet learned how to do. they don't do it, and the democrats, look at the campaign trail and the people who probably a few years ago really didn't like hillary clinton, they're stumping for her this very day.

neil: and using jesus to make your point that you are victimizeed? >> i'm from the south. i don't know about that. but persecuted as a christian. neil: it's got to stop. we tried that, dagen, game over. we'd be electrocuted, electrocuted. >> i get nasty looks -- neil: that's from the co-workers. >> thank you for telling the world that. neil: you are dead-on right, not about the dirty looks here. in the meantime, the justice department and the fbi at odds, and i think to myself, this is not exactly a fox business alert. i seem to remember bobby kennedy at odds with what this guy did to j. edgar hoover, all of this on comey, been there, done that, let's read a little history on that.

. >> i have respect that the fbi has given it a second chance, and this time i have no doubt that in that 650,000 e-mails, did you see where they said, there are duplicates, how can there be duplicates if there are hundreds of thousands more than you started off with? neil: i don't know if those were all having to do with the e-mail probe and all that, but he is right on that. hundreds of thousands of more e-mails are found. whether they are more than the original amount, it does behoove the fbi director to look into them. james comey was ripped apart as he was by republicans when he didn't pursue a criminal investigation in the summer. such are the woes between the justice department and the fbi and it has been that way for time immemorial. what to make of all this? manny gomez.

good to have you. i'm going back to the old days when they talk about j. edgar hoover and the friction he would experience under multiple justice departments run by attorneys general who were his boss, but he didn't listen to them, including famously bobby kennedy. history of adjective between the two departments. how bad is it now compared to that? >> it's as bad as it gets. the fbi director is given a 10-year term, so that he or she will not be political, and to be objective and neutral when it comes to political investigations. the attorney general's office, obviously, is very near and dear to the president and we have a situation that's really awkward where we had former president clinton on a plane with the attorney general speaking for half an hour during this investigation, and ultimately having to sort of

recuse ourselves from speaking publicly in july and thus bringing director comey to the forefront of what should have been the attorney general's job to speak on behalf of the department of justice and the fbi regarding this case. neil: you know, manny, we've heard all the criticism here that there was tension between the two when comey brought this to the justice department's attention, and the word is they didn't want him to at least be public about it. he opted to do that anyway. do you think in the course of, that he was saying i'll quit if i'm not allowed to do that? >> well, we know that director comey held a very high integrity by everybody in government. the case that he did years ago when he stood up against his own people that nominated him as deputy attorney general proves that, and this is a man that will do whatever he has to do to do the right thing.

neil: he had to know, manny, in doing this, he would be causing a bit of a preelection crisis. >> absolutely. neil: and he also had to figure if he didn't do this or make people aware, he'd be called on the carpet after the fact if we got wind of this and it was hidden from the american people. he was damned if he did and damned if he didn't. >> in july he was demified going a stepfatherer and getting mrs. clinton indicted. now he's saying we don't know what we have, we have more information, it's going to take time to look through it and he's being thrown under the bus for saying that. you are absolutely right, neil, he's got nowhere to go but down on this thing. he's a man of high integrity and he's going to pursue what he thinks is the right thing and not bend under the pressure of political whims on one side or the other. >> to your point, not that this is new, the latest friction here, fascinating.

manny gomez, thank you very much. >> thank you. neil: here's all you need to know where hillary clinton is by some of the latest polls that are tightening in key states that she hand leads in. she's on a tv ad blitz in states like michigan. michigan.

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time ago you know, we've had roughly close to 30 million americans who already voted? now most of them, overwhelming majority of them did so before the news of this latest fbi probe into hillary clinton's emails. how many of them would like a mulligan or do-over? that is depends where they voted and where they come from. it is not a slam dunk they would even get that opportunity. connell mcshane which states allow doovers. reporter: another twist in all this. buyer's remorse is what trump and some people calling this. a lot of people took notice of comments talking about it. he was in wisconsin, hey, you can change your vote. vote for trump instead. not something many of us had thought about maybe till last friday when the fbi story broke on clinton emails. here at fox we've confirmed at least four states where you can cancel your earlier absentee votes. early voting rules there in minnesota, talk about the states you can do it. minnesota is one of them. michigan is another. pennsylvania. there they are in the map. wisconsin is another state where

trump was obviously. that is where he was talking about. those last three are all considered battlegrounds, right? could be important. the how also important. depends on the state. use wisconsin which we mentioned trump was there talking about it as an example. in wisconsin, if you are an absentee or early voter you can change your vote, believe it or not up to three times. two-ways to do that. you request to do mail-in absent tee, before 5:00 p.m. november third are which is tomorrow. or complete it in person, absentee, 5:00 p.m. november 5th, which is saturday. minnesota, other states are similar. what is not clear though how often this has been done in the past. we don't have history to guide us. we don't have reliable stats whether people have take advantage in i of these states. another reason this election is unlike any other. keep a close eye on pennsylvania as an example. you talked talked about this poe

it is getting closer. instead of 10-point lead, hillary clinton up by 4. a state he has been trailing in. he is getting closer, how pennsylvania could be real key to trump in the electoral college, if he does not win in north carolina. even if he can't win in wisconsin, by the way, neil, marquette poll came out, clinton up six there. neil: he is devoting a great deal of time and resources. maybe they see something we don't in all the polls. thank you very much, connell mcshane. charlie gasparino is here. first off you had some news. what is going on? >> we're getting more internal poll data from the trump campaign. it is kind of interesting. they see numbers right now where they are getting more confident about even possibly winning virginia. they believe that the polls out there right now, they're saying they're demographically off and that there is a path, possible pathal path to victory in

virginia, i don't know how accurate that is. that is coming out of the trump campaign in internal polls. also interesting, show as very tight race in the national polls. in florida they think they will win it. they think like confident this is in the bag and they think they win it by 5% when all said and done. that is obviously a birx key state for donald trump. at least that's what their internal polls saying. here is the driving force behind this. i reported this out yesterday. they're still talking about it. that real low turnout, lack of enthusiasm among key demographic group within the democratic party, african-americans, and number they said is that the turnout according to their internal polls will, among african-americans will be down 22% from last, from the last election, 2012. and they think that will allow donald trump -- neil: could it be that much, charlie? that was an african-american on the ballot. expected to go down a little bit.

i don't think it is expected to go down that much. >> that has them very confident, they will win particularly north carolina. clinton, bill clinton and hillary clinton always had close ties and a lot of support from the african-american community. you know, i can't remember, who was tony morrison said bill clinton was the first african-american president way back when, which he wasn't obviously. this is kind of a shocker if they that part of the their base out. neil: got to get them jazzed, kate. that is the thing. each side has to jazz their base, bring their core home. seen signs that trump seems to be doing that with so-called establishment or regular republicans leery of him. what about hillary clinton, what is your sense? >> as far as hillary clinton goes, yes, she has ad blitz. she is starting to spend more money in some of the states that are leaning democratic and leaning so far democratic this shouldn't have to be her focus right now. yesterday, walker "washington

post" abc had a poll strong enthusiasm for hillary clinton is down seven points. could not be worse timing right now. you know as far as i see ad blitzes going trying to get into the minds of the other campaign. try to play all the mine games. psychological race. and they are hoping that they can get a lot of these candidates to make their mistakes an, this is the time when donald trump thinks that he now, that his enthusiasm is up he can close the gap. as far as hillary clinton goes, she has a lot of support from, these soft supporters, a lot of republicans anti-trump. this is the time when we're seeing that they may not be as welcoming to hillary clinton as you would expect. neil: guys, thank you. so much breaking news here, including ongoing federal reserve meeting about to wrap up here. you probably didn't even know there was such a meeting here because all the attention is on december and whether that is the meeting which they hike. there is no planned press statement or press conference after this one. it is sort of under the radar. what if they surprise us?

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>> i'm lori rothman live on floor of new york stock exchange with fox business brief. stocks are falling out of bed since the friday bombshell from the fbi and clinton emails. nasdaq on track for seventh consecutive session of declines. investors digesting on new jobs data. private sector poll coming in weaker-than-expected with 147,000 number. this is strong likelihood to wall street that the big report on friday, the october jobs report will also come in a little bit soft. don't forget, these are the last jobs numbers before the election. let as look at oil. this is big pressure on the markets. last check oil down 3% on news after massive supply build. oil on pace for lowest settlement in more than a month. look at price of gasoline, coming down about a penny. 2.21 s.m. is national average, down a penny from last week. this time last year, 2.19 a gallon. back to

"cavuto: coast to coast."

neil: this falls under category news to you, news to us but "the daily mail" is reporting that anthony weiner checked in a sex addiction clinic, over his relationship with a 15-year-old girl, triggered an fbi investigation of him now gone to extend to his wife huma abedin and of course hillary clinton.

but the charges that he facing that he is sexting a 15-year-old. he has gone to rehab facility for this addiction. this is not just a sex addiction. this is bigger than that i don't know if the facility branches you out to the other locations. we will keep you posted, if it is news, we share it and sharing this as well. anthem ceo, threatening a full retreat from obamacare if results don't improve. unitedhealth, humana have already begun pulling out obamacare because it is not worth it. finally hulk hogan has to settle on$1 million settlement with the folks behind gawker, 31. that ultimately led to the site's virtual collapse. bought on the cheap by an outside entity. settling for $31 million which is not chump change, brother! [laughter]

no one here, i think that is pretty good. no? yeah. nervous, yeah, sure, fine. meantime we've got a fed meeting and we'll know in about 16 minutes or so what they're thinking. real clear markets editor john tamny on that. this was sort of like a stealth meeting, with the planned press conference afterwards. janet yellen saying anything. they have been known in the distant past to move at such meetings but are you expecting one at this one? >> i'm not expecting even if they do, what difference does it make? we're talking about the fed raising interbank lending rate for a banking system that is shrinking before our eyes. it represents 15% of total lending. that number is in free fall. it is also the least dynamic of lending. banks can not take risks today. they don't have much impact on the economy t would have no economic impact at all one way or the other. neil: john, if they did it, would be surprise even quarter

point. no one is expecting it, but are you expecting one in december? >> possibly in december. that's what the markets seem to be pricing in. you're certainly right, if it were to happen this time, surprise certainly moves markets. so it may have a very near term effect but really over the long term, we're looking at a banking system that is shrinking. that is the fed's channel. there is one new banking company since 2010 that has been incorporated. a bank based in amish country. idea that shrinking source, sector of the u.s. economy could influence u.s. economy in a major way defies common sense. neil: smart people like you, john, are reminding us, rate hike that it would pick up the pace. even though with we thought that the last time they hiked. they didn't follow up. is it your thing that whenever they do, in december, they would get into the hiking groove and

that would be problematic for the markets? >> would it? i beg to differ. i don't see why it would. japan has near zero rate for 20, 25 years. has that driven an economic boom there? we have had zero rates for -- neil: started hiking. if they started a steady string of hikes? >> i don't think it makes much of a difficult recognize either way. neil: that's a pity, john, we have a animation and graphics around when it happens. i'm going back to them and just say stop. but, the argument is whoever is elected next week will face a prospect of interest rates suddenly going up. free money, smart guys like you crunched, those days are gone. do you agree with that? >> well, i never agreed with free money in the first place. the notion of easier, cheap, credit is popular to economists and academics untouched by the real world but even apple pays

3% to borrow money n in hollywood, just about every time you try to borrow there you're refused. venture capitalists in silicon valley are rich because credit is enormously expensive in silicon valley. the fed is trying to create easy credit, in the real world we act as though the fed doesn't exist. staggers me markets pay so much attention what is totally irrelevant to market health. if the fed could influence economy in good way it would be booming t has been trying for years. it can influence the economy because it deals with banks that don't matter very much. neil: if rates went up higher and done little to goose the economy and zero, then what? >> if they go up much higher, it doesn't have much of an impact, banks are shrinking source of credit in the overall economy. neil: you're right. >> if the fed -- neil: account for fewer than half mortgages today. you're right about that. >> they're in free fall. if banks mattered more people would enter banking.

more banks could be incorporating right now. the fact they're not tells you the fed channel as it tries to influence anything is dying. by extension the fed is dying. neil: on that happy note, john tamny, thank you, real clear markets editor. we're trying to get a comment from hulk hogan what he makes for john's comments about the fed. he doesn't know what he is talking about brother! we'll have latest, battle ground florida, latest poll shows hillary clinton is making a fight of it there, back and forth, back and for the. the quest for those 29 electoral votes is like battle royale, brother! ♪

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engaged ongoing florida law governing canvasing. vote by mail ballots. what they say in the letter what people in broward county are doing, which would be counter to florida law, opening unverified vote by mail ballots, counting them, but passing them along to the final count without allowing any kind of verification process. that very simply would be voter fraud if somebody were to send in a mail-in ballot but it wasn't eligible, nobody is verifying whether that ballot is eligible. so the gop here in florida sent a letter to broward county saying you have to stop doing this. florida law allows any registered voter who believes a vote by mail ballot illegal due to defect on voter's certificate of the vote by mail affidavit to file with the canvasing board to protest this. but the canvasing board hasn't met since the october 19th. the law requires you start counting on october 24th.

broward county has not responded to this we've contacted them. florida gop is countying illegally or improperly mail-in ballots that have not been identified. broward county, two to one outnumbered democrats to republicans. this is key issue to the gop. neil: do we know how many ballots we're talking about? in the words of the letter coming from blaze ingoglia, the chair, tens of thousands of votes in broward county are open by the staff, before they are canvased, verified by the county canvasing board. two without opportunity to review or file protest after ballot legally deficient. these illegal actions must stop immediately. tens of thousands. neil: incredible in a state virtually a draw. thank you, adam, very, very much. that decision imminent.

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>> all right, moments away from a fed decision, trish regan, take it. trish: all right, we are indeed. thank you, neil, i'm trish regan with "the intelligence report." seconds away from an important fed decision, the last fed decision in this election cycle, and it's seen as potentially having a very big effect on this election as americans head to the polls in six days. hey, if james comey got in trouble for what he did. can you imagine the rath janet yellen would face were she to raise interest rates peter barnes speaking in the background, we cannot go to him for another 30 seconds, they got him all under lock and key there. he has seen this report and he will give us these results. they are embargoed until 2:00

on the dot. you got polls narrowing significantly, one out of pennsylvania showing hillary clinton is only four points ahead of donald trump right now. up 10 points last month. we're going to talk about all that in the context of the economy. peter, where the fed stands on rates, hey, peter. >> reporter: no change in rates as expected, trish. no change in rates. the fed keeps benchmark, fed funds rate at quarter to half percent, but the fed made slight changes in rate guidance to possibly tee up a quarter point hike at last meeting of the year in december in today's policy statement the fed said that the labor market continued to strengthen and the growth of the economic activity picked up from the modest pace seen in the first half of this year. job gains solid, inflation is expected to rise to 2% over the medium term as transitory effects of declines and energy prices dissipate. that is a change from statement