the rule of thumb for the democrats to take control of that body, if hillary clinton were to win, tim kaine would break that tie. now we can give you a read on what we have been able to do and see. it's kind of going like this. fox news can project donald trump will be picking up the state of tennessee. hillary clinton has picked up as expected the state of rhode island. we are going to be rifling through these. these are calls we feel comfortable making. sometimes when you see the breakdowns in mississippi, a republican state or it has been going for the republican. oklahoma, also in keeping with that. as we rifle through some of the other 17 state closing at this

hour, you can see, massachusetts, not a huge shot, hillary clinton picked that up. she also won the state of delaware. joe biden was aggressively campaigning for her there and washington, d.c. so you can see with some of these states rolling in as we continue to get to illinois, this one is going back and forth. some thought in the trump camp they would be able to eke that out. of lace at least in the last 3 or 4 presidential elections. as we go through some of these and get engaged in them, a state that turned for donald trump. one of the biggest developments is what has happened right now in the state of illinois. for the senate, that is a pickup, it would appear, mark kirk who was trailing in some of

the recent polls ended up losing that seat. that's the first republican seat that has swimmed into democratic hands. you would need four to do that:hillary clinton were to win tonight. 5 if donald trump wins. but the bottom line is the dynamics are quickly changing. but no more so than in the state of florida. the panhandle part of this state doesn't close with the rest of the state. but what we are getting a read on is a very, very tight race. and there is enough there in the panhandle which is a safety republican part of the state to change things. we showed you an electoral vote that is he season actually -- which is essentially in. reporter: as we take into the electoral map. we'll be able to get into the he

narrows on the path of 270 electoral votes. let's focus on this developing situation in florida. 3.4 million votes in secretary clinton's couple. think of florida in thirds. in the bottom third of the state you will get a lot of democratic support. miami-dade. broward county nearly 70%. palm beach she is at 61%. that's where the democratic support comes in. in the upper third of the state we are waiting for the results to come in. that's where you will norm haley see the -- you will normally see the map turn to the red side. approximately 1.5 million of them live in the until prr panhandle. the middle of the state of

florida is normally where the election is decided. you heard a lot about the so-called i-4 corridor. mrs. clinton is up by a total of 10 points with the votes counted so far. 53% to 43%. going back to 1960. every single time we have been counting votes in the state of florida, the winner has won hillsboro county. see this map? we just have a few places to fill in. it's developing as we expected it to with the democrats here and the republican support here, and a little bit up for grabs in the middle of the state so far. neil: given the population of the panhandle area, is that enough to overcome trump's deficit in the rest of the state? less populace.

i would imagine that's enough to apply. >> off the top of my head, we are close. 3.5 million to 3.4 million. maybe we can go back to 2012 and get an idea how the president did when he won it. so we are getting close now. romney did take that entire panhandle. when we were back in our current look at 2016, a lot of that still was not filling in. so it's going to be close and it already disclose. about 3.5 million for secretary clinton. neil: some of the other big prizes we cannot call at this point. north carolina and ohio. some of the big ones the candidates are hoping to win.

you heard the arguments that donald trump needs to run the table. he is competitive, but he needs to win them outright. in maine where we can split the electoral vote, hillary clinton has a slight lead. that could be important later on this evening. let me get right to it with my colleagues. maria bartiromo is here. we have stuart varney and lou dobbs. lou, you have been covering the last couple hours and everyone has been saying donald trump, the pressure is on you. you have got to take florida. and all the possible scenarios he do that without florida. but this options have run out unless he can eke that one out. lou: donald trump acknowledged north carolina and the state of florida are pivotal to this strategy and victories there are the foundation he desires for

the rest of this evening. we are look at what's happening as you and connell were talking. we are watching this race close again in a very, very narrow march anyone from where it was from 3 points now down to .7%. this is the kind of margin you can expect. a very narrow margin. this contest through the panhandle as the numbers come in will be decidedly red. will they be enough? we don't know. but they will be the determinant. neil: it's not as if we have all the votes from the rest of the state. but again it's way too early to tell. maria bartiromo when you look at what you are seeing here and you always think about if donald trump had gone the more help, many would argue that the party wasn't behind him in places, key states, ohio, we mention with the governor, john kasich and

john mccain. and whether that made a difference. maria: i think it does make a difference. the people who did not get behind donald trump. his supporters. the people who did not want hoij * in the -- didn't want hillary clinton in the white house. they will remember that. john kasich announced today he did not vote for donald trump. it's extraordinary. what i'm looking at is the economic indicators. the florida situation is a nail biter. you look at the stats in florida. you have got a gdp of 3%. when you look at the foreign population, that's important to look at. one of the big determining factor for britain to leave the e.u. was an increase in the migrant population. that number in florida 53% over the last 15 years.

when you think about the hispanic vote, that comes to mind after donald trump and what he said about mexico. that will likely be the decider. but florida, wow, it's so close. neil: stuart, you think about how the demographics have changed in florida. we talk about the hispanic vote, it doesn't might's a monolith for hillary clinton. but what kind of read are you getting? stuart: i'm squinting at the scoreboard and i can see hillary clinton lead donald trump. but a moment ago she was up 1/2 percentage point and you haven't got the panhandle fully reporting. that will be dare i say 70-75% for donald trump. surely that is enough. when that those numbers come in.

neil: four days ago it -- four years ago it was confirmed barack obama won the state by 9/10%. >> when you look at some of the numbers. the fact that we don't know north carolina and ohio. and the fact that it's competitive. there was obviously a strategy by the trump folks to pound the democratic states or the ones they hoped they could flip. and the reason why the hillary clinton folks were going back to those states, it's not clear who benefited from that. but it's a changing dynamic. lou: it's changing and it's unclear what the outcome will be.

that's a good thing for the trump campaign. it means their mess and has been effective. to have the governor of the state of ohio opposing you and doing so very publicly and energetically and to be in this tight race in the state of ohio speaks to the appeal of donald trump in north carolina. he is in the race that he wanted to be. he is fighting primacy and the victory the same in the case of florida. these are three states that some of the wags, the gurus and national liberal media were saying he can't possibly compete. he's not only competing, he's competing aggressively through the campaign and tonight these numbers show he is competing perhaps successfully. neil: to stuart's point. it's not over. the panel atlanta can change things. if you are within a percent and

a quarter it's achievable. stuart: it depend on which precincts have reported. hillary clinton has a lead in north carolina and ohio. the lead moves as each different precinct comes in. a great deal of demographic work to be done. neil: north carolina has changed from four years ago. this state flipped twice. last go-round barack obama narrowly lost it to mitt romney. what do they call it, a purple state. i am curious and maybe get your thought on this. we heard today that former president bush jr. and his wife laura left off the presidential choice. they didn't vote for either hillary clinton or donald trump obviously a lot of bad blood

between the bushes and mr. trump. mr. trump said, i think it's sad, but i don't think it has any effect, i think it has no impact. but that's got to hurt. maria: when you think about a jeb bush. john mccain didn't make a pledge. but jeb bush did. and john kasich did. and that's why people are angry. they made a pledge they would support the nominee. neil: at least mr, it looks like he will win reelection to the united states senate. but democrats gave up on that. then the lead to 2 points. and rubio unlike some of the

others we refer to at least tacitly supported donald trump. stuart: whatever happens in the election tonight, the republican party is a very different party tomorrow morning. where is john kasich going to be? he wouldn't support donald trump. neil: in a couple of days he's make an address on the future of the republican party. maria: laura ingrahm came on this morning and said he's done. i think people are angry at him for not supporting him. stuart: florida 448.5. 48.5 -- 48.5, 48.5. neil: it could be and case of getting other parts of the state. this is a must-win for donald trump.

there are many ways for hillary clinton to cobble together the 270 electoral votes she needs. but crucial for trump. >> donald trump to your point, we have gone to all these paths to 270. without florida it's next to impossible. his odds to victory would go way down. we talked about the panhandle. it's funny how close it is now. it is important to point out that as the counties populate, that does not mean all results are in from one particular county. one of the story lines that developed in this election was what would be hi his -- what wod the his panic turnout be? we talked about miami-dade, and that would be able to propel her to victory.

we saw the polls bounce around a lot in florida heading into the election. there was a time when we had tonight our scorecard leaning blue. then we had to make it a tossup and we went back and forth. this is the i-4 corridor. the state is at 48.5%. let's see how hillsboro is looking. it's smaller than last time we checked. just a point of reference. president obama, 2012. 53-46. she is doing well there. we expected she might, and that might be a place that you would look that would be able to put her over the top. you have got to be thinking the other places that are reliably republican are large than what mitt romney did four years ago. you start to pick out the red counties.

we don't have much data coming in from taylor county. still small numbers. and it's tough to make any comparison one year to another. 48.5 and 48.5. it doesn't get much closer. neil: florida usually goes with the winner. >> if you win hillsboro county, you win the state. in 2004, our mapes doing us a favor. when president bush ran in 2004, that's hillsboro county. he won it fairly easily over john kerry. but when barack obama took the state he flipped hillsboro county. so that's one of the reasons we watch it so closely.

i think that's where adam is and has been throughout the week. neil: you had donald trump campaigning aggressively in states like michigan. 16 electoral votes. then the margin of error to make that a worthwhile event. but now georgia where it's a real struggle. also 16 electoral votes. irony would be he might pick up the motor state. but you might lose a state. stuart: what do you think will be the mood if he comes from behind and takes a lot of panhandle votes and inches up there with almost all the results in from the state of florida.

how do you think they will feel in north carolina and ohio where he could also make a last-minute end of the evening come from behind to level it in those two key states. i will bet that mood in the trump camp is bordering on joy and rapture if he goes ahead in the panhandle. neil: he's having a fight in other states. but when you think of the fact none of the party hierarchy were helping him out. when this 12-year-old tape came out and they all abandoned him. whatever he is pulling off tonight web's doing largely on his own. maria: you have got to give him credit for that. he's been fighting the world it's been gopers, the media, half the country. he has withstood that. pennsylvania as well.

we are talking about florida. but pennsylvania has a jobless rate of 5.7%. philadelphia is largely democratic and we'll probably see a big move toward hillary there. but the rest of the state in pennsylvania is worth looking at. when you have gdp of 2% in pennsylvania. neil: we'll go back to florida it's always its own little soap opera. adam shapiro has been there, i think he bought a condo. where are you now? >> we are in hillsborough county. and i have got to tell you, we are at the republican party of hillsborough county viewing party, the watch party. the people here are on edge. when you look at the numbers, hillary clinton and donald trump

at a dead heat. hillsborough county has been the bellwether county. it voted twice for president bush and twice for obama. the numbers with clinton on top with 246 reporting. 340 in total. it could be offset by the panhandles. the panhandle is trump country. they didn't stop voting until 8:00 p.m. eastern. people here although optimistic are nervous. neil: we'll keep an eye on that. marco rubio said he would quit the senate and not go back, we know how that worked out. mark kirk in the state of i will know now looses. that's a pickup for the democrats.

the only pickup thus far this early evening. they have one those seats right now. but it could flip back because there is a battle in nevada. and the republican is favored to win reid's old seat. that's my way of saying don't go anywhere. you will regret it. i'm just a guy who wants to buy that truck. and i'm just a guy who wants to sell him that truck. so i used truecar. it told me what other people in the area paid for the truck i want. and because we're a truecar certified dealership, i already know the truck he wants. so we're on the same page before he even gets here. -it's fair. -and it's fast. look good? looks great. this is how car buying was always meant to be. this is truecar. ♪

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the mistay connected.elps us the microsoft cloud offers infinite scalability. the microsoft cloud helps our customers get up and running, anywhere in the planet. wherever there's a phone, you've got a bank, and we could never do that before. the cloud gave us a single platform to reach across our entire organization. it helps us communicate better. we use the microsoft cloud's advanced analytics tools to track down cybercriminals. this cloud helps transform business. this is the microsoft cloud. neil: lou dobbs is joining us, so now the party can begin. evan bayh is not going to pick up his old senate seat. todd young the republican wins this one. that means so far the only turnover has been with mark kirk in illinois.

that was largely expected. a lot of that was of his own making. the takeover of the senate, so far it hasn't materialized. a net gain of one seat. in nevada for harry reid's old seat, a republican is favored to take that seat. whatever gain the democrats had by taking kirk's seat in illinois they might lose in nevada. on a lot of these exit polls what we realize is there is a lot of rage out there on both sides. >> you were talking about the state of florida. 29 electoral votes. but i want to show you a few things when it comes to healthcare. a lot of small business has suffered because of obamacare. take a look at this poll. did the healthcare laws go too

far? 46% in virginia say yes, 50% in ohio and 4% in florida. -- 46% in florida say yes. who came out to vote by race. a didn't story when president obama barely won florida. 70% in 2012 were hispanic. now we are seeing 18% number. so we are looking at a major jump there. and 15% black and 61% white. the top issues on the minds of floridians. when it comes to florida. 48% say it's about the economy. immigration low. terrorism 25%, that's higher

than the national tables. finally i want to leave it on the late deciders. director comey coming out against hillary clinton. 88% made their decision before director comey's decision. neil: we keep going back to the drama of the evening. surprise, florida. right now you have donald trump ahead. some of the pollsters have been looking at this saying he was going to lose by 3 or 4 points after leading a few weeks ago. back and forth. it's always a tough state to call. with the panhandle coming in, and that's a safe republican area, he has made up lost ground. what can we say with 9 out of 10 votes in? >> 91% of the vote in florida

it's the red counties we expect to fill in the northern part of the state are starting to fill in favor of donald trump. we are getting much more data than we have last time. but we are starting to get some votes in here. when we started to talk about florida earlier we said to imagine it in thirds. the upper third from a cultural and political perspective, you are looking at a state that is similar to the states that border to the north, be it georgia oral gallon bama than the southern part of florida when you talk about miami-dade and palm beach. so as the votes come in real-time here, it's way too close even now. donald trump has added -- we can go back out here as the night goes on, one of the things we'll have to start talking about is

some of these other states. remember the early stories, you know, were all about how turnout and especially hispanic turnout would help in states like florida and north carolina. some of that is happening and it doesn't look like some of the other things are coming through, especially in florida. neil: donald trump picked up the state of alabama. he's winning a lot of what my be called small southern states. but they add up and add to his electoral count. charlie gasparino has news on florida. charlie: we confirmed with governor rick scoments office that he had a conversation are donald trump and said this. they were pretty down. their own internal polls showed him down a couple points. the exit points to were positive for him. scott said this. be patient. you can probably count on a panhandle surge, and i think if

that happens you can pull it out. that's what scott communicated to mr. trump. and still governor scott's staff is communicating with the trump people, this panhandle surge is what could give him the margin of victory. we don't know about other parts of the state. there may be more votes in dade county which leans heavily towards clinton being a democrat and hillsborough county and orlando. but that's what scott said. i think clearly donald trump got a surge from the panhandle as connell said, they used to say the east coast of florida is new york, the west coast is the midwest and the panhandle the north is the south. so back to you. neil: i didn't understand that. i'm kidding. you are right.

neil: if he continues his role of states has to get, it would be something people were not counting on. lou: one of the things that's very difficult is to maintain some sort of, you know, basic alignment with the empirical data and the narrative in terms of the political analysis. too many pollsters were talking too big about margins that approach 3% in the state of florida. there is no analog for that, but there is an analog for a narrow, slim margin here. neil: you raise a good good point. every single points in the last three elections have been wrong. lou: absolutely wrong. and that is not assimilated by the extra of -- by the extra exa

snrkants.maria: it's difficult e sentiment and it changed in the last six months of this election. it went from national security and economy to end the corruption now. being a top issue for voters. with the holt f.b.i. investigation and the noise around that, jim comey there and then he comes back. people started to feel, you know what, i want the bums thrown out and i want this corruption over. so that sentiment which is clear throughout the country is hard to gauge by numbers. stu require sense a mood shift.

you walk in here 7:00, 7:30 eastern time. it doesn't look great. the exit polls don't look good. trump is having a hard time. now it's 8:32 eastern time. you can sense a shift. donald trump is .8% ahead. 69,000 votes ahead. neil: what if he loses ohio. stuart: fair enough, but the mood is shifting. maria: you want to look at the rust belt states. like michigan. neil: a lineup of states that were not considered in that original grouping. they remember what happened in the 2008 financial crisis and they want change. neil: do you get a sense we could be putting a new table

together here for republicans and democrats. the race is changing in terms of the automatic lock that urban voters will vote one way and rural voters were to vote another way. if donald trump were to pull this off, you are calling some assumptions into the question assuming that all of that hispanic vote went one way to hillary. stuart: hasn't donald trump upended the conventional political wisdom? he's making inroads into changing politics. lou: he made fools of the savants who challenges his unorthodoxed approach. the fact is he does connect with these voters. he's doing it in state after state. he said he's going to expands the map.

neil: my producers are reminding me. donald trump is winning virginia. states in play are not in play. others wee thought weren't in play are in play. charlie gasparino it's like an upside down world. charlie: i'll give you historical context. maybe lou remembers this. the -- i was watching in new york at the time. i saw jubilation because they thought they had it won. all of a sudden if one neighborhood in queens came in and they called it for giuliani. with florida this is pretty tight. that .9% is barely winning. if you can get out the vote, and the clintons have a great ground game. donald trump didn't have a grounds game there.

that could be the margin of victory particularly if you haven't counted southern florida yet. you can see him losing by 2 easy. neil: we don't know. popular vote is very close. what we have thus far. but by my math now we have 26 states that have reported. this is the electoral vote that is favoring donald trump over hillary clinton. some of the big states we are not able to report, that includes florida and north carolina and ohio. but this is kind of in keeping with what we expect early on in the race with some of the republican states come forward. but not all that way. donald trump has a 1.2 million popular vote lead. you know, that's one of the phenomena we are keeping an eye on. connell, what do you have over there? reporter: a lot of votes to be

counted in the state of ohio. ohio is one that trump also most people will tell you just have to have. it's hillary clinton 52.2% to donald trump's 46%. you will look at the state and say how can a democrat be winning. the whole state is red. the population centers, in cleveland and cuyahoga county the democrats dominate. can she get that number higher? if she does, then ohio will be looking good for secretary clinton. and that would be one of your many upsets of the night if you are a supporter of donald trump. most of the time when we are filling in our electoral maps for paths to victory, they included the state of ohio even though it was so close in the polls.

coming back to the map real quick. i want to take a look at north carolina. a lead for mrs. clinton, 50-47. and this is a similar state. when we go into the charlotte area, mecklenburg county, the democrats need to run up the score. so far secretary clinton is doing that with almost 67% of the vote. really quick i want to point out at the top of the next hour we'll get a number of states. we started out in this conversation about a changing map where donald trump targeted white working class voters in state we haven't called yet. there are three more coming up at the top of the hour that we should keep an eye on. neil: the conventional wisdom had it if donald trump could pick up florida he had to pick up north carolina, ohio,

pennsylvania, says who? he has michigan in play. does that negate georgia. does that negate -- i guess what i'm getting at here the map has changed and what you have to cobble together to get 270 electoral votes has changed a lot. maria bartiromo, one of the things i see here is we might be witnessing the beginning of a changed map for democrats and republicans. and now in florida if he can get a comfortable enough edge and he's up by more than a point, that's a big game changer. maria: republicans will likely keep the house. it's the senate people are worried about on the republican side. it's going to be a close call. neil: we are going to take a

quick break. we feel comfortable enough -- we call it the decision desk? that's our decision. they are anticipating the house will not swing democrat. way too early to say the senate will goat same way. but we can say they were afraid at this point that it would shift. and maybe by now we would see it. we haven't yet.

neil: we have a new studio below ours that has gotten a little bit of i tension. hello, how are you? he time a state is called there seems to be an equal number called. we have applause and they have a great time. two key states, virginia is among them. it's lost in the sauce here. this state was -- whoa.

virginia is getting a lot of attention. that wasn't necessarily considered a must-win baits was considered out of reach. but you can see what i'm talking about. this was not in the bag of states he was pursuing. weigh he was look for ohio. but look what's going on in the state of florida this was a state in the last few days slipping away from him too close to call. but whose that he could pull that one out. we are watching that closely. the electoral vote has donald trump up. the popular vote by 1.3 million votes. there is a separate battle for control of the u.s. house of representees. a third are of those senate seats up for grabs. so they have more to lose. but right now they are not losing that much. and that's something our own liz claman is following.

how that balance of power is going. liz: let me get to these crucial races. from the balance of power studio. this one is for the history books. you have got a guy who has never ever lost a race in his 30 years of politics losing the race. former two-term senator former indiana senator evan bayh was considered a shoe in. and he been defeated by republican todd young. he found success in framing bayh as an outsider who ditched the hoosier state to leave indiana and go to washington. young painted him as a carpet bearing. the associated press showed his schedule showed he didn't stay a

single night in that condo during his last year in the senate. this is what matters when it comes to the balance of power. the senate seat has flipped from republican to democrat. let's show you how this went down. we have the breakdown. 53 republicans. 47 democrats. tammy duckworth getting 50.4% of the vote to mark kirk 44.4%. ousting that sitting senator kirk. kirk was widely viewed as the most vulnerable senator. he did himself no favors when he questioned duckworth's heritage. after becoming a u.s. citizen, she became a blackhawk helicopter pilot. she was shot down and lost both legs.

one of the most talked about senate races. republican senator marco rubio gets a second term. murphy had poor name recognition and he was facing accusations he embellished his resume. he tried to pin the flip-flop label on rubio. neil: i can see a net pickup for democrats by one seat. but in nevada harry reid's old seat could fall into republican hands. he probably would have preferred to address him at the president-elect. but he vowed when he ran for president that he wouldn't try to run for senate. but they implored him to get back in the race. so he did and he won.

it appeared to be a loss of that senate seat never materialized. what we got is as donald trump doing what's better than thought. the seats he supposedly kobled together are made up of different states. and the senate is holding its own. lou: the senate is interesting. congratulations to tammy duckworth. todd young in indiana. we are watching something here that's fundamental. that is the exit polls, justice in -- just as in 2004 may have been misrepresenting the reality on the ground. we are going to be relativeley cautious here going forward because there was a 2% margin until 2012 in florida particularly, now we are looking at a 3% margin.

it's been obviated -- >> look at virginia. >> you are enjoying this, lou dobbs, i know you are. neil: mark kirk, he -- you know, lost his. but i wonder whether the fact that he went overkill to rip donald trump apart saying he was too bigoted and racist. he was distancing himself. whether that came back to bite him. i'm won diversion those who tried to separate themselves from donald trump. the point that they badgered him hurt him. maria: i don't think it will go well for those people who did not stay with donald trump. i think that's what you will see in terms of the trend. lou: kirk was over the top and absolutely insulting to donald trump. the idea that it was a matter of

degree. the fact is donald trump is none of the things kirk accused him of. kirk is an incompetent. he was a horrible senator. neil: you don't seem to like it. lou: it's not a question of like. he couldn't function. the reality is he couldn't perform. the people of illinois said a dirks os. stuart: a good governor of illinois but bad politically. maria: i think people will remember john case. we had the republican national convention in ohio an doesn't show up. he says as expected i did not vote for donald trump. he's driving the home until the ends. stuart: he's going to make a major address in a couple of days. lou: from a minor figure.

stuart: lou dobbs, i hope i never cross you. neil: we are keeping an eye on things and how they stands. popular vote favoring donald trump. we might add here that some of the big states have yet to report oddity of this evening is that some of the states that we thought donald trump had to win might not necessarily be in the order they say. he could pick up a michigan, yards, if he gave up on ohio that don't look promising but he picks up a virginia. see what i'm getting at? the rollout of states that each candidate had to pick up or was the natural recorder of events it's far from that right now. take a look at what's going on in ohio. proof we have a battle on our hands. i want to take a look at what's going on in virginia. this was a state considered to be an easy winter hillary clinton. i'll get your thoughts after this.

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this is truecar. ♪ neil: we are six minutes away so we'll follow that closely. what i can tell you. this race is far from resolved. right now we have donald trump leading it in the electoral vote. he's leading it in the popular vote. at this juncture he's winning the state of florida and he's winning the state of virginia, across the country he's got about a 2 million vote lead. and in the state of florida this one is going back and forth. but he has a nice little lead going on right now. i'm happy to say that dr. ben car southern is joining us.

given the up and down volatile craziness i might provide some nice prescriptions for us. doctor, good to see you. what do you make of this? still early? we are noticing it's not the kind of automatic list of states one side cobbled together over another it's all these new states. >> it's too early to say at this point. but things are not going according to script, at least according to the script pundits who believe they know everything. i think it is going to the script of the people. and i believe that the people of this nation recognize that we are making a huge decision about the direction of our country. do we want a nation that is government centric or people centric. that's the bottom line. neil: what do you notice about virginia and what happened there?

we are told that hispanics turned out in record numbers, and the automatic assumption was those are all hillary clinton votes. we cannot exclusively explain mr. trump's strong performance on the panhandle. he had to get at least a respectable share of those new votes. what do you think? >> he's going to do -- the panhandle at least in the past has sort of been the last part of florida to come in with results. and if that's the case i expect actually the small lead he has now to increase. as far as the hispanic vote is concerned. obviously you know, that's going to go in the direction of hillary clinton because the narrative has been put out there that donald trump, you know, is racist and everything that he can to hurt him which of course is not true. by the many the same kind of narrative that's been put out in the african-american * community.

>> when you went into those community, doctor, how did you explain donald trump? >> i explain him on the basis of a rising tide lifts all boats. people want to hear, what are you going to do specifically for me. but when we say the pledge of he lee jones we say liberty and justice for all. this is the way donald trump is thinking also. if i create an environment that allows people to succeed, to climb the ladder of success based on their willingness to contribute and to do hard work, isn't that what america was all about? the can-do attitude? maria: exactly. i think there is a portion of the hispanic community that says look i got here, immigrants, up got here legally and i don't want the people who did not go through the process legally to take my job. there is a portion who agree with donald trump on what he

said and want to make sure to vote for that. florida is also an economic story. you are talking about the fourth largest economy in the country mind california, texas and new york. you are talking about tourism and international trade. this is a group of people that know their jobs are on the line. they want to see economic growth. that's trump's priority, moving the needle on economic growth. neil: it's fair to say cuban-american voters is one thing. but we haven't been able to crunch the numbers outside of saying it's evidenting itself state after state after state, small minority vote in general, than barack obama enjoyed four years ago, 8 years ago, the question is what is making up for that for hillary clinton? >> i think what this is projecting is something you referred to outside of the hour.

the hispanic community is not monolithic. wet were it be puerto rican or mexican heritage or cuban heritage. and we are seeing that come to play here. they i'm sorry to mess up the group and identity old tick ands the algorithm that they bring with them, the same tired algorithm. this is a new america, but an america that's going to look a lot like the old america; our values, our system of government, our economic system. its capitalism, its free enterprise, its growth. the new normal is being rejected by most americans because the new normal of barack obama does not serve any of us except, except the most elite and perhaps a sliver of the financial sector of our economy. it's unfortunate, but that's the reality for the left. you just, you're just going to have to come up with a new vision. neil: we have about 20 seconds before maybe some new calls

here, ben carson, but have you had a chance to talk to donald trump tonight? >> i haven't till see him shortm sure he will be, like everybody else, glued to the screen. [laughter] neil: i understand. lou: he's got a little at stake here. neil: let's take a look at what we have got here, guys, and we can just rifle through this. wyoming, as expected, has gone to donald trump. texas, do you remember when they were painting that one pink and thinking, well, you know, it might not be such a guaranteed republican lock? well, tonight it appears to be. we're calling the lone star state for donald trump as we are north dakota. that's not exactly a fox alert there. but south dakota also for donald trump. now as we go through this and go to kansas, that, too, we can comfortably call for donald trump. but you're noticing right now part of the thing that's getting interesting here is what's going on with these so-called states that have divided electoral

votes. and be at this point four of the five electoral votes of the state of nebraska -- and it is possible all five -- could go to donald trump. and here's where someone, a democrat, can make up for it by winning a big state with a lot of electoral votes. new york does that for hillary clinton. now as we go through, i think new mexico is next. too early, right? all right. arizona, colorado also too early. can we just count up the electoral votes? new york is a very big one. but what i can tell you that between the popular and everything, donald trump is almost halfway there. maria: wow. neil: again, we have yet to hear from california. it's safe to say that will be for hillary clinton and also -- but donald trump is putting together something i think, ben carson, that very few people were anticipating at this stage of the evening. are you surprised? >> i'm not surprised at all because the american people are

a lot smarter than the pundits and the media think they are. and they're able to -- lou: are you suggesting there's a problem with the national media? >> well, not you, lou. [laughter] neil: by the way, arkansas, of course, if you think about it, bill and hillary's original home state going for donald trump. but, doctor, i mean, we're going to be analyzing this ad nauseam, we don't know how it's going to end up at this point, but republicans are going to do some soul searching, winning or losing, right? >> well, they're going to have to. what we saw is the dichotomy between the republicans who with the people and the republicans who are with the political elite class. and those are sort of the never trumpers, the ones who want to protect their little fife -- fiefdom, and that's much more important than the will of the people. lou: or the national interest.

could i ask a question, dr. carson? >> please. lou: dr. carson, how does it feel to be part of history? [laughter] >> well, i've experienced that in the past. it's a good feeling. lou: so this is nothing new for you, to simply be on the precipice of perhaps a victory that would bring donald trump into the white house? old hat, is it? >> well, let me put it this way, i expect it to happen. because america changes so fundamentally if it doesn't happen. i just don't see that happening. i think the people -- neil: take a look as the doctor's saying this what's going on in ohio. maria: wow. neil: he has pulled ahead. and that's about the most animated you're going to see -- lou: did you see him get excited? [laughter] neil: i'm telling you, that's the kind of doctor you want. i just know -- you know, neil, you could afford to lose a little weight. no rush, but if you want to. all right, we've got a lot more coming up here. just taking a look where we

stand in this race. we've got ohio suddenly in play, and it didn't look that way earlier on. i don't know the order of the precincts that are reporting right now. what i do know is that ohio is now closer with donald trump in the lead. jeff flock is there now. jeff, what can you tell us? >> reporter: with the secretary of state here in ohio at the estate house x these are fresher numbers than you've got there because they just came from the secretary of state. it's now 499-47 -- 49-47. trump has been trailing all night, but now -- there's a refresh, we're now 50-46, trump. what's been happening, neil, is the smaller counties, the red counties that surround the urban areas, those have been coming in, and that is why he's now in the lead. but here's numbers that i'm getting from cuyahoga county. we've got early votes in, absentees already in, and that's strongly clinton, but there's a lot more votes out there.

we think at least another 140,000 plurality for her. so if you look at it, what are we looking at there? you know, another 140,000 puts her in the lead, but we've still also got smaller counties to come as well. i had the secretary of state here, but i don't see him at the moment, john husted, wanted to talk to him about vote fraud. he said, you know, neil, we had poll observers out there. you know, there he is, actually, let me get him. he's the secretary of state. you're live on the fox business network, sir. first of all, any sense of how this is going to go right now? we've got some rural counties coming in now, but we've still got cuyahoga county to report. >> yeah. cuyahoga county's just coming in. we expect to have them pick up the pace on the results, and so that should help put a better face or a better picture on what might actually happen in the end. obviously, it's very close. hillary clinton started out with the lead, donald trump has since

overtaken, but that really is a condition of who's reporting. we expect that over the next hour that we should have a much clearer picture. >> reporter: in another hour, okay. very good. neil, another hour. john husted. and real quick, voter fraud. a lot of people were concerned. fair election, whoever wins? >> fair election whoever wins. there were no incidents out there today that really fulfilled some of the projections of rigged elections or voter intimidation. people were on their best behavior today. >> reporter: great to hear. we'll be back with you in about an hour maybe. there you go, neil. it's going to go down to the wire here. [laughter] near as i can tell. neil: well, this is not going to script, is it? i don't want to extrapolate into the asian markets, but they are trending down a little bit. again, many of the markets had been assuming this was hillary clinton's race to lose, and way too early to say how it's going. i will say this, though, that now the fact that that might not be such a gimme has given

markets in asia a little bit of pause. but again, way too early to assign anything to that. but i am watching it closely, because all the markets have been running up of late on the prospect of hillary clinton, the known entity as it were, looking like she was going to pull this off. she still might, but right now it is not looking like it was early this morning when a lot of polls going into this said it was hers to lose. all right, connell mcshane is crunching numbers for us and giving us a view of where we stand in this race right now. connell. >> just follow up on what jeff said briefly in ohio, and we should take a look at north carolina. the point that he's making is the absolute right point, these population centers -- and we see it up by cleveland, this is cuyahoga county up here, those are going to be blue, and then the rest of the state is all red. you're just getting more data in in the red areas. so ohio which had been trending more towards secretary clinton now goes to donald trump's side. but to jeff's point, we still

have votes to count in some of the population areas, so we'll wait for those to come in. now, let's go to north carolina and see how things are developing here. this has been an interesting one to watch. donald trump has taken a lead as the votes are counted in realtime with almost 1.6 million votes in his column, 49%. again, similar stuff here. we're going to continue to watch the heavy population centers, mecklenburg county in the charlotte area, to see could hillary clinton get close to 70% of the vote there. right now it's at 66%. so with that, donald trump looks like he's going to keep it very close if not win the state of north carolina. so we'll watch both of those and, obviously, keep an eye on florida. now, as we look at the composition of this map in the 9:00 hour eastern time and maybe next hour we'll get into this in more detail, neil, we have not called any of these states where there are high populations of these working class white voters that donald trump had so much success in throughout the election whether it be

pennsylvania, ohio, michigan, wisconsin, minnesota. how do all of those states go? all of those, with the exception of ohio, were expected to go to the blue side. is there any surprise as the night goes on? that really will be more telling, because when we talk about electoral maps, yes, it would be a big deal if donald trump wins florida, a much bigger deal if he didn't. most people think his night would be over. so that's a must-win. these would be potential surprises, they're still on the board. neil: all right. markets don't like surprises. futures are down about 200 points right now because this is not going according to script. again, these markets had been rising on the notion that hillary clinton was going to be elected president of the united states today. that still might happen but, again, i've got to say, whatever they had gained since fbi director comey had decided to say that october surprise was going to be reversed in a november surprise, now they're not so sure. they're down, asian markets are down, and we have a lot of

confusion. i should also point out what's leading to that confusion is what's going on in florida, in ohio, in north carolina, in pennsylvania and virginia. now, with donald trump close or leading in four out of five of those states, that's 95 electoral votes. if we could take a look right now at florida, it's tipping his way. the total number of electoral votes right now where we stand, that would take you up to about almost 230 electoral votes for donald trump if he were to run the table with just those states. and keep in mind we're not, you know, including some gimme states for him. i know we're factoring california later on for hillary clinton. but, again, maria bartiromo, this is some pretty surprising stuff going on. maria: well, you know, a lot of people did say that donald trump is going to be winning because there's this silent underbelly of the u.s. that's happening. neil: right. maria: look, i want to make a comment about the market action.

if we see a major selloff tomorrow, that is going to be one of the best buying opportunities that anybody has ever seen. i don't -- we all know what moves markets, and it is earnings. what is better than earnings other than a 15% corporate tax rate and the idea that regulations -- which have been strangling small and large businesses -- are going to be rolled back? neil: that's the maria buying opportunity. maria: i would say so. >> that's exactly right. neil: dr. ben can carson is here -- ben carson is here, and that's one of the things we saw with brexit, based on polls the market was running up the day before, sold off after the fact -- >> yeah. well, the people in control of the market are no different than other people. they hear stuff and they react to it. what they don't recognize is that donald trump will actually be very good for the market, because he's going to bring fairness. he's going to level the playing -- so if you're doing well and you're actually bringing value, you're going to do well. you're going to make lots of

money. lou: don't forget the folks, as you suggest, who run the market. they make whether it goes up or down -- money whether it goes up or down. >> that's true. lou: the other part is remember all the anxiety i think is reflected in these early and thin numbers in the futures market is, or in fact, a bunch of, you know, statist socialists in europe and asia who don't even know what to make of this -- neil: well, it's the unknown, right? lou: so i would say take advantage of them, follow maria's advice, you know? if they want to sell off, god bless. neil: remember how the markets sold off with ronald reagan when they got a handle of -- stuart: i remember it well. i'm the only guy around this table. [laughter] look, we've sat around this table tonight, and we've seen a trend. donald trump started out behind in florida, he's come through, he's now 1.5 percentage points ahead. i think the same story is true of north carolina, another key

state, and as you say, neil, i think he's looking to win four of five states -- neil: if he won four of fife, three of them he was not toes r supposed to win, but again -- lou: what dr. carson said. >> right. lou: not precisely, but it is the effect of what he said, trust the voter. we have something special underway tonight irrespective of the way it ends. the voice of the people is being heard, and it is reintroducing the elites, the is savants and the gurus to a reality that sometimes is well beyond their horizon. neil: well, what tipped me off was ben carson's giddiness. [laughter] you were almost crazy. lou: i think you said it. this is as giddy as he gets. maria: is it worth mentioning the alternative, hillary clinton raising taxes, what does that do to business? lou: now, there's a sell. maria: that's what i'm saying. let's talk about her policies. neil: i'm sorry, maria.

we're also getting reports the peso is diving right now. you can't make this stuff up. it's all going contrary to script -- lou: is there a correlation between the peso going down and the wall going up? neil: apparently. [laughter] all right. adam shapiro is in florida. are we going to go to him? all right. let's get the latest. we're getting almost all of the votes in florida right now, but i'm telling you, folks, and i don't want to overstate this, but something big is going on here. and what's happening in florida seems to be the epicenter of it. adam. >> reporter: that's right. and you can see here that the republican party of hillsborough county here in tampa, these people are excited, they are charged. the key to florida, they used to say, is hillsborough county. but even though hillary clinton has won hillsborough county, it's looking like florida is lining up for donald trump. the big question mark right now is you ward county -- broward or county, neil. i'm looking at the secretary of

state's web site, and in broward county, there's still 300 precincts, roughly 50% yet to report. and broward county, which is heavily democratic, is also the county where we had uncovered that controversy over the early counting inappropriately by the canvassing board of those mail-in votes. so broward county is the holdout right now. but the people here are excited. they think they're going to upset hillary clinton in florida. neil: so that's a very heavily democratic county, obviously. are you saying no votes have come from there at all? >> reporter: no, no. there are votes for trump in broward county. this is according to the secretary of state's web site. he's got 211,000, hillary rodham has 473,000. but that's with less than 50% of the precincts reporting in broward county which tends to be a much more democratic registered county than republicans, almostbe 3 to 1, 2 to 1 in broward county, and that doesn't count for the

nonaffiliated voters. but remember, it was where there was that controversy earlier this week about counting ballots. neil: all right. thank you very much, adam shapiro. dr. carson has been so patient with us. like i said, he's a doctor. they're very patient. >> no doctors with no patients. [laughter] maria: that's good. that's very good. look at that, he made a joke. >> that's pretty good. neil: knocks him at the ama. [laughter] do you get a sense, doctor, that let's say whatever's gone on in broward county and the confusion and he be pulls florida out, what do you see as the big reason for that? because it's happening in state after state, the futures are down almost 300 points right now, the peso is tumbling. it's like everyone's neat little world falling apart now. >> that is happening, but what i see happening in florida, even in broward county even though there's a big democratic

advantage, i think a lot of democrats are going to vote for donald trump. and you're going to find that in michigan, you're going to find that in pennsylvania as well. because just because a person has a d or an r behind their name doesn't mean they can't think and can't understand what's going to happen to our country if we completely throw away our principles and values and say that, you know, criminal activity, all this stuff, it's okay as long as my person is doing it. i think people understand the implications of that for their children. lou: and there is the place in florida where you have three million independents, 1.3 million of them having already voted in early voting. but in broward county they're going to have a significant number of those folks as well. they're breaking which way, by what percentage for trump, we don't know. but they -- but he has had the advantage among those unaffiliated independent voters as well to add to however many

republicans still live in broward county. neil: doctor, i want to thank you very, very much for coming in. very, very patient. >> always a pleasure. neil: same here. we should say, as the doctor -- we were all talking here, the concern that georgia would follow what happened in illinois and surrender a republican seat. johnny isakson keeps that a republican seat. so the number of opportunities for democrats to pick up the senate, they are dwindling. that doesn't mean they can't go their way, but take a look at a what's going on in the state of ohio. this is kind of what's being plaid out in one -- played out in one battleground state after another. so, again, if you were to take a look at what's happening in ohio, florida, north carolina, pennsylvania, virginia -- and this idea that we have about 95, 100 electoral votes, none of which going into today seemed like they were possible wins for

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♪ ♪ neil: hi, how you doing? [laughter] here's how tragic my life is, but it's very easy to keep track of it. every time a state comes in

blue, it's for democrat and pink is finish because i don't have red, is for republican. and that's my high-tech -- the studio right below us is much more high-tech, they don't do this sort of thing. [laughter] i do, because it's very easy. connecticut has just gone for hillary clinton. i don't think that's a huge, huge surprise. but right now connecticut, the next state going for hillary clinton, and that puts this race right now like this. if we take a look at electoral votes -- and that's what this is all about, right? 104 for hillary clinton, 139 for donald trump. but, again, that 139 does not include formidable positions he's built up in florida, ohio, north carolina, potentially pennsylvania, already virginia. so even winning four out of five of those gets you to about 70 electoral votes. so you could start following how this is going. i know that's the kind of stuff that is not going to script. take a look at this, the futures

down over 400 points. now, again, this is across the board and follows an asian selloff, and there is no other reason for this than the prominent developments here in the united states where a gimme election is suddenly looking not like a gimme anymore. again, anything can happen. we're a long way from over here. but the prospect of hillary clinton now possibly losing this and democrats clearly not having as good a night as they thought, for example, in the united states senate, all the things that were kind of factored going into this evening are not panning out that way at all. cheryl casone keeping a very close eye on all the developments. what can you tell us? >> reporter: you know, i was looking at texas, those 38 electoral votes, a very tight win for donald trump. i know we have called that state, but i want to show you what was on the mind of voters in texas in particular to what they were angry with the federal government about. 85% saying they were angry with the federal government, 10%

going towards clinton. and then also the treatment of women. this was something that many texas women, it turns out, were kind of -- that was a problem for donald trump in the state, again, he still won -- or he's projected to win, but the treatment of women, it bothered 64% of voters there. and then 34% saying it did not bother or them. now, let's move on to arizona, okay? the polls just closed 24 minutes ago in arizona. john mccain, once again, is getting his senate seat there. look at this. what best describes your vote for candidate, 41% strongly favoring their candidate, 27% have reservations, 31% disliking the others. arizona is showing that's what we saw on a national scale a couple of hours ago when we got the national polling in. are you voting because you really like the perp you voted for or you just hate the other candidate? we're seeing that in arizona. we should also say hispanics make up 45% of the population in arizona. last poll i want to show you guys, take a look at this. the economy in arizona, a state

crashed by the housing crash. look at this, this was the number one concern in arizona for voters was the economy. who could better handle the economy if they were president? 46% say hillary clinton, 49%, neil, say donald trump will handle the economy. and, again, you know, two-thirds of arizona voters going boo this, this is polling i was looking at just last week in arizona, neil, had a negative view of the economy overall. so if the economy is a top concern, donald trump and arizona, that may line up. but, again, we're waiting for all of these results to come in and, again, arizona is next on our list. back to you, sir. neil: amazing. now, obviously, still so many states we have yet to hear from later on tonight including california. that's expected to be a hillary clinton pick-up, that's 55 electoral votes there. and, again, some of the other biggies that could come up later in the evening, that's certainly the biggest. but some others that could go donald trump's way, way too early to tell, he's hoping for a

pick-up in states like iowa, six electoral votes, and to come back and circle back to what's going on in north carolina and ohio to. pennsylvania where it's tight but not as tight. gives you an idea that if he were just to string together some of those, the fact of the matter in north carolina, something that was not in vision going into today after what's going on in virginia, you can add it up. some unexpected developments here that is rattling the markets. if i could take one last peek at that, we are showing you what's going on with the futures, tumbling about 400 points here. but these are some of the asian markets, and i have been keeping these up just as soon as they owned. now, that -- opened. now, that's a look at the futures, but immediately when i was looking at the asian market, everything turned red. and i knew, well, this is not going to script. that is, obviously, weighing on the asian markets here. and our markets, now, some have been saying this was the result of if donald trump became president, we'd have a protectionist president.

you can glean into it whatever you wish, but it was just not among the things that they expected. all right. as we are now at 9:30 p.m. eastern time in the united states here, we can tell you at this point we've got a race on our hands, and an unexpected race at that, and in the most unexpected places. connell mcshane to spell it out. >> reporter: the markets may suggest as we move past midnight, one or two in the morning, trump needs a win in florida, he probably needs a win in north carolina, certainly in georgia, but there are six or seven states when we start at virginia, work our way north and west that we have not called yet that if donald trump can pick off one or two of them, then we start to talk about realistic paths. i want to check in on what's happening in virginia right now, because if there is a surprise that is out there that may be developing, it's the 48.5% of

the vote that donald trump has picked up in virginia with a lead over hillary clinton. just about nobody expected it. i know the trump campaign had talked a lot about these late visits he had made to virginia along with other states. the story that's developing in these can counties, look how red virginia is which we always expect it to be because the population centers near washington, d.c. up here is where the democrats are going to get most of their vote, and they will continue to do that. it's like this in every election, that's why this is blue. but the rest of the state is going to end up being red, and what donald trump has been able to do so far in many of these counties is outperform, say, mitt romney four years ago, certainly john mccain eight years ago with working class white voters. that had been the base of his support throughout the campaign, it continues to be tonight, and it's a story that is developing in virginia and could develop, neil, in these other states. that's why we have to watch -- well, watch new hampshire. we haven't called that yet, right? pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin and minnesota. so if you take these three and add in pennsylvania for four, if

trump can take one of those -- and this is a big if right now -- then we start to have a serious conversation about his path to 270. so we'll see. neil: all right. thank you, my friend. also gold is doing pretty well in this environment, a safe haven, up about close to 3%, so we're keeping an eye -- if it's not going into stocks, it's clearly, for now, going into gold. we've got governor john hickenlooper out of the fine state of colorado, democrat. governor, it's still early, i know, but are you surprised by what's going on right now across the country? [laughter] >> there is nothing tonight that'll surprise me. i mean, this whole campaign all the way from the beginning to the end has been one upside down event after another. so, no, i'm not surprised. and i think it's still too early to tell. neil: no, you're right about that. how do you think your state ultimately will go? >> well, we certainly had huge turnout today in a lot of the places that would traditionally favor hundt.

so i am -- favor hillary clinton. so i am cautiously optimistic that she'll take this state, but it'll be close. it's close everywhere. part of what we should be thinking about is no matter who wins, how do we bring this state back together again? i think the one thing we've seen on both sides is real emotion, right? people really care. and they're really angry at the other side. somehow we've got to figure out how to deal with that, don't you think? neil: there's something that's disconnected here, as you know, governor, and we've chatted before about this, polls versus the actual vote. but in this case underpolling, you've heard about this from the trump people who said the magnitude of their support wasn't appreciated. do you think some of that is what's going on here tonight? >> i think you're seeing it, certainly, a part of it that people were maybe ashamed to say to a pollster they were voting for donald trump or maybe there are people that are going to the pal otts -- ballots to vote and that they, you know, they're casting their ballot, and they

hadn't participated in previous elections. so maybe they didn't get, you know, picked up in the polls. obviously, there's -- polling is kind of a mysterious, i mean, it's hard -- it's not always reliable. neil: no, i hear you. >> we all know that. neil: i don't even understand them myself. governor, thanks for taking the time. we know you have a crazy night, we appreciate it. neil: maria bartiromo has to get up in about one hour to do her show -- [laughter] some people have been e-mailing me, i thought you called georgia for donald trump. we did not. we're not comfortable calling that race. it looks like it is going donald trump's way, but again, we're not in a position to say that just yet. but seeing what you're seeing, and when you start your show in about, like i say -- maria: five a.m. we're starting tomorrow. one hour early. neil: if it keeps going this way, you could have an interesting market story as well

as an interesting political story. maria: i think it's worth taking a look at what is bothering investors. we're going to have a down market if donald trump wins the presidency. what they're most upset about is the trade part of his economic plan, and they're worried that there's going to be a lot of disruption. he's going to rip up nafta, not do tpp and be hard on any trade deal that actually is not advantageous to america. what's wrong with that? they just are worried about disruption and, of course, as you correctly point out, it's just an uncertainty. he's the unknown -- neil: right. they said that about reagan. they didn't know what they were getting into. maria: exactly. but the economic plan could move the needle on economic growth. it looks like the working man and woman is speaking tonight. the unions have not turned out in force for hillary clinton. the working man out there tonight is basically saying i'm worried about my job, i want to see economic growth, he's the one that has that as the priority. i think that's what's leading the night. neil: well, maria's got to go.

her show starts in one hour, so whatever shut eye she can get, she's got to do it. to her point, a big market and political story. lou dobbs, you're looking at all ooh -- of this and the fact that this is not going to anyone's script. you are hillary clinton, and you're here in the city, and you're waiting for presumably what looked like a victory speech which still might come to pass. lou: right. neil: what are you doing right now? lou: i would think that there's a great deal of agitant right now. neil: that's my people. [laughter] what's this guy dobbs know about -- lou: i'm not appropriating -- neil: i understand -- lou: i'm not appropriating, i'm only borrowing. neil: all right. lou: and with good reason. we are looking at something that was unanticipated by some of the finish well, it's all conventional thought rolled into this. and the very idea that the american people have the temerity to actually express themselves, the middle class -- neil: amazing.

lou: -- that has been just -- stuart: it's a revolt. that's what it is. lou: exactly. the middle class of this country has been torn up for two decades. it's got to stop. it doesn't matter, you know, what anyone says. you cannot, you cannot continue to oppress economic middle class in this country. the it's the foundation of the country. neil: agitant. lou: there it is. neil: all right. take a look at where we stand in the electoral vote. 270 is what you need to win, and right now donald trump has a nice little lead for himself. it is still early, but try telling that to the markets, try telling that to the world. world financial market, those open in asia, are tumbling, and our futures are down. look at that, 465 points. come back. ♪ ♪ buy that truck. and i'm just a guy who wants to sell him that truck. so i used truecar. it told me what other people in the area paid for the truck i want. and because we're a truecar certified dealership,

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significantly less major bleeding than the standard treatment. both made me turn around my thinking. don't stop eliquis unless your doctor tells you to. eliquis can cause serious and in rare cases fatal bleeding. don't take eliquis if you have an artificial heart valve or abnormal bleeding. if you had a spinal injection while on eliquis call your doctor right away if you have tingling, numbness, or muscle weakness. while taking eliquis, you may bruise more easily ...and it may take longer than usual for bleeding to stop. seek immediate medical care for sudden signs of bleeding, like unusual bruising. eliquis may increase your bleeding risk if you take certain medicines. t all planned medical or dental procedures. eliquis treats dvt and pe blood clots. plus had less major bleeding. both made eliquis the right treatment for me. ask your doctor if switching to eliquis is right for you. ♪ ♪ neil: all right. it is anyone's guess how this night is going to turn out.

i think it is safe to say, it is not unfolding like most people thought it would. maybe except my friend lou dobbs who had understated trump support. that's pretty palpable early on. lou: and it does seem to be in play here. and the very fact that there is this sense of rebellion throughout the country, it is, i think donald trump himself talked about it as a peaceful rebellion and revolt. but it's tame for a change -- time for a change here, it really is. and that's what you're see, i think. the silent majority that he started talking about very early in his campaign -- neil: i'm thinking he hit a nerve. we're telling you the futures in the asian markets are tumbling on this. again, this was not one of the things that was factored into events that they saw coming so that's, obviously, frightening them a little bit. and how this is playing out on social media is kind of how it's coming out here. lauren simonetti keeping track

of that, fbn a.m. co-host. >> reporter: neil, rapid fire is an understatement. let me take you back a couple hours because one of the first states to call for trump was indiana. this is what pence tweeted about that: thank you, indiana, for making our state first on the board to vote to make america great again. well, john kasich, the governor of ohio -- who also ran for president -- is congratulating marco rubio. senator alt marcorubio, senator, you earned this win, congrats. kasich also congratulated rob portman for his win in ohio. remember, in the senate republicans are defending 24 seats, and ted cruz also tweeting his congratulations to marco rubio. but, neil, i want to show you two pictures. i think you're going to like them. donald trump's daughter, ivanka, showing this photo of her family and saying it's such a surreal moment to vote for my father for president of the united states. make your voice heard and vote.

and then democratic vp nominee, tim kaine, he showed this picture of his daughter when she was just a baby. she's now a student at nyu. here's the caption: thinking about my daughter right now. no little girl will ever again have to wonder whether she too can be president. neil? neil: that could be a tad presumptuous there. >> reporter: do you think? neil: we'll watch that. as you were seeing, lauren, we're getting another couple of calls here. new mexico for hillary clinton, louisiana goes to donald trump. so again, as more states come in, we're getting an indication of just how tight an evening this is going to be. in new mexico, we can comfortably say that hillary clinton will win that state, one state that has turned lately comfortably blue. but, again, it's way too early to say about how the total numbers look. but i will give you a gauge of what they look like for the time being. again, that is without addressing what's going on in

florida where it's tight, ohio where it's tight, north carolina, pennsylvania, virginia where we've yet to hear anything. but the fact that this is going on and on and on and the fact that hillary clinton appears to be in some bit of difficulty and that donald trump just could pull out a victory tonight against almost all odds, well, that's what's doing all of this. north carolina one of those surprising stories right now. you're looking at the electoral votes in favor of donald trump by 147-109 margin. remember, you need 270 to win, and all of a sudden that's all these big states where he does have a lead. jenna lee is in raleigh, north carolina, where a lot of this, i guess, earthquake is going on. jenna, what can you tell us? >> reporter: well, i'm here in raleigh, neil, as the democratic party celebrates, and you're going to hear cheers erupt now and then as they see different reports posted on the screen there. i have sort of a fun fact about north carolina that might be a metaphor for this evening. the venus flytrap, that

carnivorous plant, is native to north carolina. i don't know exactly what that means for either party, but it will be a metaphor for one side or the other tonight by who gets snapped up here. we're taking a look at registered democrats, registered republicans and unaffiliated voters. that ice a key voter in this state because sometimes they show up to elections and sometimes they don't. they showed up in the primaries, and they broke for donald trump. did they show this up time around? that's a big question. one of the reasons why we're watching the votes so carefully is that only a few votes make such a big difference to the precincts here. in 2008 barack obama won by hess than a percentage point, but if two votes per precinct swung in the other direction, there would be different results. for mitt romney in 2012 it's 17 votes swung another direction, we could see different results. so that's per precinct, but it gives you an idea just how to close the race is here. neil: it is incredible. jenna, thank you very, very much.

and in those battleground states, too early to tell. we're showing donald trump leading by a big margin in georgia, and a lot of people are saying why don't you just call it for him. we're not in that position to do that. we think it looks comfortable, but we're not in a position to do that. again, he is ahead though. in florida, this is the one that's got everyone's attention here because early on it looked like hillary clinton had a three or four-point lead, of course, the panhandle hadn't come in, difficulties in broward county voting precincts reporting, but right now it is trump leading. it is trump leading in the buckeye state. again, he did lead there early on, but he has now asserted that lead, and it is a comfortable lead early on. but we're not calling that state for anyone yet. again, we'll keep an eye on that. pennsylvania, do we have a pennsylvania peek, guys? all right. that another one. and that could be a big one. that's 20 electoral votes there. and right now hillary clinton is ahead, but again, the whole need

to take pennsylvania might be negated by what mr. trump is doing in states like virginia and in north carolina and in states where he was not expected to perform well, even in florida right now where that was almost given up. it's still a must-win for him but maybe not as much of a must-win given all of these other surprising developments. again, way too early in this race, but i could tell you it is not being received favorably in the financial community. as we've been telling you here, and this is unique to our coverage here at fox business, we sort of play how the markets are playing on this, and right now our futures are not well, and the asian markets not at all well. and right now at this judgeture if you are nervous and you want to put your money under a mattress or the equivalent, gold generally tends to be that investment. and gold is doing very well right now and all because this is not going according to script. a lot more including a number of state closings that will be

coming that could add still more drama to this night, as if we needed it. continued fox business coverage of election 2016, wow. ♪ ♪

♪ ♪ neil: all right. in indiana, a republican governor will be replacing a republican governor. the gubernatorial race there still in republican hands as

mike pence, the vice presidential candidate and the indiana governor, we don't even know. after tonight he could be the next vice president of the united states, but right now that gubernatorial battle is settled, and it looks like still in republican hands. we should still say if you're keeping track of this balance of power, it is even stevens in the senate. one democratic seat gained and then another lost. [laughter] and in the house, it's even, two democratic pickups, two republican losses. and in the electoral vote for president of the united states, this is what it's all about, donald trump has the lead, 147 electoral votes to 109. and i must stress this is not including some of these big states, the results of which we're still waiting in a lot of cases they're close, in a lot of cases because they're big, they take a while to count. but again, if even three of the five -- i'm talking florida,

north carolina, ohio, pennsylvania and virginia -- were to go mr. trump's way including right now with donald trump up ten points in ohio, that, that's beyond just the margin for error there. if he holds that. but he could pick up at least, of those big state, another 70 electoral votes if he were to sweep them all, i know that's for the trump folks the best case scenario, that's 95 added electoral votes. so that falls under the category of wow! don peoples here, the former adviser to barack obama, big fundraiser for him, kind of lukewarm on hillary clinton. and we've got trish regan here. trish, we were talking during the break, this is not going according to script. trish: no, and that's why you're seeing this downside in the futures market, by the way, because investors like that script to play out just as so. so this is a bit of a curveball -- neil: you can see selling off, but that's -- trish: but that kind of reaction?

neil: yeah. trish: don't forget what happened with brexit. remember the polls? all the polls said there was no chance, no way that the u.k. was going to exit the e.u., and then the polls started to narrow, and you started to see a shift in the days before, and then june 23rd, what do you know? surprise, surprise, the markets had a huge reaction. they leveled off after that, and i think that's part of what you're seeing right now -- neil: this is actually making up the ground that they gained. lou, it just sounds wacky to me. that's pretty extreme. lou: it's very extreme, and you can never argue with the markets, right? neil: right. lou: we're looking at a 3% selloff on these futures which will translate to a significant impact tomorrow. but what we're really seeing in these indexes is the orthodoxy around the markets. they are crumbling. they're being shattered by what is happening. this is also, this is a reaction to what we're watching in the way of vote totals, but this may also be a projection of what we

can expect through the remainder of this election. there's something moving, shifting and changing which donald trump detectedded a long time ago -- detected a long time ago. and we're seeing it whether it is in ohio -- look at that margin. neil: by the way, can we show michigan again, guys? we're just showing wisconsin there, he's leading there, but michigan? these are 6 electoral votes here -- 16 electoral votes here. lou: if an economic populist isn't going to win in michigan, he or she isn't going to win anywhere, and he has carried that message straight to the heartland. trish: this is something we have talked about right here for some time, throughout this entire process. the reason why he has resonated so much is because you've got those folks in michigan, people living paycheck to paycheck that are worried about their job going overseas, their factory getting shut down. so he's made this outreach to, frankly, blue collar democratic voters. i mean, these were ease she

pickings for the democratic party. and i'll tell you, no political party wanted these people. they at no time care enough about these jobs, about these economies in the heartland, and suddenly a guy comes along who does. neil: democratic states, they're leading. >> but, neil, what he's doing, trump is the first republican to be against the so-called free trade and wanting to restructure trade. neil: right. lou: i'm glad you said "so-called." >> and they call this, this is what these voters feel has cost them their jobs. and, you know, michigan, ohio -- lou: and he spoke to it. neil: he did speak to that rage, yeah. lou: fundamentally, he has made thissen contest about globalism versus americanism. he has made it very clear that he is for an america first foreign policy. this not only resonates with working men and women in this country, their families, our middle class, this is rational, national policy. if you do not -- and as a matter of course put america first in your foreign policy, what kind

of fool are you? well, we've been that kind of fool for decades now. neil: and it's resonating with democrats. i mean, we are talking about a realigning coalition potentially if it pans out, don, where all of a sudden a republican is doing what ronald reagan last did, winning in the rust belt. this is historic. >> it's very similar though. ronald reagan was america first and rebuilding america, focusing on our own country first. and before these democratic voters had no choice. republicans wanted to expand global trading and global manufacturing, and democrats sponsored the north american free trade agreement which i believe these voters are very sensitive to and know that it came from bill clinton. lou: yeah. this is a matter of cause and effect, consequences. and the truth is the north american free trade agreement, no matter how laudatory its goals and purpose, has resulted in extraordinary, extraordinary losses of jobs and wealth in this country.

you go across that border with mexico, and you will see investment by the billions on the part of american companies. donald trump talks about ford, he talks about carrier. there are dozens of companies investing in mexico instead of this country because there are, because they're arbitraging labor costs. trish: the reality though is this has been a failure of both parties. neil: yes. trish: anyone should have been able to see this. you go to these small towns in america, i've told you before, my husband is from one, and they are -- it's like a ghost town. it's not what it once was. and everyone that lives there remembers what the it once was. they remember in the '70s when they still -- lou: look at the streets of manhattan, trish. city is not what it once was. we can talk about the -- neil: maybe if don runs for mayor. lou: i think that's a splendid idea. trish: you're right. people that have capital have benefited tremendously, and

certainly with the run-up in the stock market and asset prices, they have benefited. so the hedge fund folks in new york city have benefited -- lou: not this year. trish: but what has happened to new york city's middle class? >> it's declining, and it's struggling, and the divide of income and equity that the democratic party, especially the liberals, say they want to close keeps getting wider. look, the other thing trump did and has done with voters is he's not giving up on them. most -- if you ask democrats about manufacturing and trade, they say these jobs are gone. they're never coming back. our new product is intellectual property, technology. so they've written these people off -- trish: by the way, that was bill clinton's message back when he was campaigning in new hampshire he basically told workers that, these jobs are gone, you're going to going to get them back. >> he sold it that this was going to be a job generator -- lou: well, the conflict is this, they say that these jobs were lost, but now we're a knowledge

economy, so you have to adjust to a new normal. at the same time, they're saying it's a knowledge society and economy is our grades are going down in school, our test scores are declining and people don't have choice for excellence in our public school system which has always been the great equalizer of our society. it's been absolutely devastated. neil: and it's been not, as a lot of folks expected, right now hillary clinton has eked out into a slight lead in virginia. she is still trailing in florida right now. so i think she'd prefer to be leading in florida where that is not the case. so those 29 electoral votes, that was once considered a must-win state for donald trump, but i don't think those old rules apply, because he has found another route potentially to 270 that might not have anything to do with florida. it could certainly help, but he's picking up some other states here he was not expected to and leading in other states he was not expected to. so much so that he seems to have

a better path to 270 right now, ironically, than she does. if that surprises you, i want to go out here looking at the markets. it really surprises them. they're panicking. they're selling. and right now globally the read from the markets that are open in asia is they can't understand what the hell is going on. after this. ♪ the pursuit of healthier. it begins from the second we're born. because, healthier doesn't happen all by itself. it needs to be earned every day. using wellness to keep away illness. and believing a single life can be made better by millions of others. as a health services and innovation company optum powers modern healthcare by connecting every part of it. so while the world keeps searching for healthier

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. neil: north carolina, where it's close to even, pennsylvania, anyone's guess, but at this point here, donald trump is the surprise of the evening, and a big surprise at that. one of the things we're also finding as we look at popular vote and what's going on now, this, of course, in ohio, where he's open up a better than ten-point lead, is the fact that we're getting early read that minority voting is down substantially, in some states about 40% below where it was four years ago, in other states the average seems to be 30-35%. again, some downdraft would be expected. four years after barack obama and certainly down from the 2008 phenomenon dominated by

barack obama, but i don't think anyone predicted that kind of a fall. whatever hillary clinton is make up for that on hispanic votes, not as if it's a monolithic vote, it is not doing the job for her in the state of florida where she is trailing. but we're a long way from calling that one and things that are going on in broward county and things i'll fill you in on in a moment. let's look at states we can comfortably call, montana picks that state up, 3 electoral votes. the states that are so big but not a lot of people. 3 electoral votes there as he inches closer to a number that is getting tight between the two of them, 152 to 122. do we have a popular vote to keep track of how that's going? across the country, right now, donald trump still has the edge there, by about a million votes, but you know, i don't want to make quick comparisons

to 2000, i don't want to make quick comparisons to the confusion of 2004, but this has against what everyone thought, feel to it. i got charles payne with me now to look at developments. charles, the markets themselves are stunning story here because they are just selling off with abandon here. why? >> they're concerned. the concerns that come with the trump, for lack of a better word, rhetoric, we talked about it a couple days ago, lou, with the two minute commercial that says why wall street is afraid. after comey and hillary, the next thing you see is a sign of wall street, you see the sale of the new york stock exchange, the sale of the federal reserve, you see a robotic arm by the swiss company, and nafta and tpp all of the things wall street believes are the underpinning of global

capitalism and the driver of their profits. lou: the other thing is wall street has bought hillary clinton and the minds of many of those investors who are on wall street. they're thinking they paid for something, they want it, and now that it might be they're not going to get, it they're going to get agitated. >> they are agitated. >> they were aggressive against trump. so he was the end of the world, she was the favor of the free market system, and it's backfired on them. >> from a commercial point of view, it made a lot of sense. main street america has a whole lot more votes, maybe not money but a whole lot more votes than the guys in the ivory towers of wall street. lloyd blankfein who is in the commercial has one vote. it takes the coffee shop and one of the counties no one thought would flip for hillary. lou: that's a souped up one vote. [ laughter ] >> reminds me of michael moore,

the filmmaker michael moore was saying who is a clinton supporter, he basically said this is going to be one giant f-u to the political elite. neil: we're a family broadcast here. trish: forgive my french. he basically was saying. lou: it was the french alphabet. trish: exactly that, that lloyd blankfein and the wall street bankers have one vote and there's a whole lot more people that are hurting and they've had it, and they have seen this as a railing call and they are out there in droves and numbers that previously you haven't seen. i'm looking at the women angle in florida as we watch this tight race in florida and so many people said there was going to be a huge gender gap, and to a certain extent that has played out. not necessarily in florida, where you know, i think it's by far closer, and this could be what really launches the rest of the race. neil: your home state, new

hampshire, donald trump is up a little bit, are you surprised by that? trish: not at all, this is a state live free or die territory. hillary clinton has never been extremely welcomed there. barack obama beat her way back when, and there's a little bit of clinton fatigue. her husband did not fare that well there. neil: they both had problems with new hampshire, didn't they? trish: she's been around a while. people are tired of the status quo, and new hampshire in some ways may be going back to its roots. recently gone blue, but now seems to be if it goes for trump tonight. lou: we call being around awhile, experience. [ laughter ] >> it's not as welcomed experience in new hampshire. lou: and apparently quite a few other states right now. my god. neil: there are battles going on here, tightening in the states but blake burman following all this. blake, what are you hearing? >> reporter: hi there, neil, i can tell you that i spoke with

a top rnc official at donald trump's campaign headquarters or election night headquarters. earlier tonight, as the votes started coming in. here's what the person told me. i asked what exactly are you watching at the beginning portions of the night? i was told four states to keep an eye on -- florida, north carolina, michigan and colorado. here's why i bring that up. over the weekend, the campaign manager for donald trump, kellyanne conway felt that point two days ago, there were six different paths that the trump campaign maps out. you can play all the different permutations, lose this, win that, how you get to 270+, they felt they had six. the rnc official told me tonight no matter which way you spin it, the easiest way to get through all of it is with florida. as you've been detailing that is where most eyes are positioned on tonight. secondly the rnc official told

me they are bracing, and i'm sorry to pass along the news, neil, at this point we know it, they are planning for a late night here, they think this can go deep into the night. by the way, donald trump, not sure if you saw it there or if we have the picture. he is at trump tower with his family, daughter ivanka tweeted out a picture of all of them watching the results. we believe he will make the three-four-minute drive couple blocks west some point tonight. assuming we get the results. neil: could be a late point into the night. i have seen the pictures coming from the trump campaign, i don't know if we're allowed to show them. he looks pretty happy. but again, blake, are you hearing from any of them, what's the biggest surprise the trump folks are getting that they're competitive in the states or what they would need to get on 270, that order of events and how they get to the path has changed? >> reporter: florida, first and foremost as i mentioned.

secondly, what i was told earlier tonight, keep an eye on michigan. and as you know. neil: that's a surprise. >> reporter: over the last couple days, week or so, donald trump and his campaign, some laughed at it. why are you going into michigan? traditionally deep blue state. that was one of the ones they are saying, the rnc folks keep an eye on that, and you know, who knows if it ends up coming down to that. michigan and colorado, neil. another one folks thought donald trump couldn't play in, they are very, very hopefu with the two states tonight. neil: amazing, just amazing. quickly, lou dobbs, everyone who second-guessed trump on where he goes, the fact he doesn't have an avid ground game, doesn't have this, that, he's defied them all. lou: he's defied everyone since june 15, june 16 of last year, and yet the savants, the gurus persist.

neil: wasting your time in michigan -- >> i do not comprehend after all he's done in a year and a half, people are still questioning, carping, chirping and second-guessing when they have no basis, qualification either experience or talent to do so. they demonstrated they don't know what they're talking about. he's demonstrated he does. trish: people underestimate the power, sounds a little cliche, but the power of the people, literally, you don't necessarily, ground game matters and she's had a whole lot of it, but he's had this passion, and that counts for so much. >> if you're selling a bad product, you got to drag people to the polls to come vote for it. if you've got an inspirational product or you are expressing the will of the people like you just said, then they're going to come out on their own, and they're going to be engaged in both. what we're seeing now is the ground game has not helped them in many places because the core

constituencies they were counting on, i've been saying this for months. that african-american voters are unenthusiastic about the candidacy, and they do not like the democratic nominee or how the process went with bernie sanders. neil: you are right, as i'm showing that, i'm sorry, lou, want to bring this to your attention, what was feared to be a loss for republicans, not so. they maintained that north carolina republican senate seat. so they have as yet to change the math in the senate. at this point, republicans are holding their own, but lou, i'm sorry. lou: no, no, this is a very important win to the republican party. senator burr highly regarded. neil: he had been down eight points. lou: had a rough time, but congratulations to him. i think we need to give some credit here to the rnc. no one has been, i think, and more critical than i've been of

the rnc, and it's not always adroit support of the party. they moved 7600 organizers into the field and it looks like we're starting to see tremendous benefit as a result of that. neil: absolutely. lou: and this is an effort that also has obviously boosted not just downticket of whether the house or the senate, but also donald trump. neil: we should say too, and trish, was talking about this about her native new hampshire, that they're mildly optimistic or quietly optimistic, the chair of the new hampshire gop saying a number of republican strongholds have yet to come in and even without them, they are leading in the granite state, and that's i believe four electoral votes. trish: four critical votes could make the difference at the end of the night here. it's a state he spent a lot of time in, campaigning in, had quite a crowd in manchester. neil: indeed you are right.

and the market when they got news of a senate seat protected and not switching to democrat, it added another 150 points to the sell-off. lou: i can't keep track of it. my god. neil: down 600 points in the futures here. asian markets, spiraling more on something they didn't see coming on the prospect now that donald trump could just be elected president of the united states. it is beginning to dawn on them that that is now more of a possibility than people thought going into the evening. connell mcshane has been crunching a lot of the numbers as the latest look at where things stand. >> reporter: blake hit on the key point from trump headquarters, that's michigan. looking at minnesota, wisconsin, michigan and pennsylvania knowing that to get on 270 electoral votes seems donald trump would need to flip one of them. virginia is off the board now. so michigan has a lot of interesting components to it and many of them line up very well for donald trump. number one, it's an older state. number two, you have a higher

population percentagewise of voters who are white in the state of michigan. 78%. 2.5 million people in the state are over the age of 65. the demographics line up well. the key for hillary clinton in defending a state that is usually reliably blue is to win big in wayne county, where detroit is. she's not doing that. early going here, but these numbers need to be a lot higher. watch them throughout the night for hillary clinton in wayne county. if you go above that, this is one of the famed counties in the state of michigan, macomb county, the home. reagan democrats, leaning towards mr. trump, 58% after being won by president obama the last time around. as we look at michigan, the key for trump is to win big in the western part of the state and hold his own here, limit the losses in wayne county around detroit and maybe in the areas where you have a lot of working class white voters that he's done f he could win

there, that could be his key, his state, neil. right now, must win states in florida, georgia, north carolina, he's going need one of these. if it's not going to be pennsylvania, having been in pennsylvania for the last three or four days, this is the place where the clinton ground game has been impressive. a lot of time into winning philadelphia and the surrounding suburbing knocking on 1.3 million doors last weekend alone, i'm not sure they did the same in michigan. they got there very late. we were looking at numbers on advertising in michigan, and back in the primaries in february and march, mrs. clinton spent $2.6 million in ads but since then barely spent anything at all and got in very late. not the same organization in michigan as pennsylvania for that campaign. neil: yeah, and michigan at 16 electoral votes they thought they had in the pocket, that does not appear to be the case. pennsylvania has 20 electoral votes. now you see a scenario. this sounds crazy, you see a

scenario don peebles it might have to be hillary running with the people in the states. i can't believe i'm saying. that as i am addressing that, the markets are tumbling on all of this. what do you make of that? neil: she's got to hold everything that's been in the lean democrat or democratic column. i thought virginia was a place trump could accomplish, breaking down that blue wall if you would. virginia is extremely close. i'm surprised at that. i think she's got to, michigan would be a backbreaker. florida, i believe they have kind of priced that into the mix. i don't think that florida, they could be optimistic for florida. >> who could be optimistic? >> i think clinton started off optimistically. they've accepted the fact they might lose. i see him winning florida. i think the idea of a hispanic community voting one way is ridiculous. the fact is the hispanic community in florida is

extremely diverse, and has different views. cuban-americans tend to be more conservative. so to lump everyone into one category was a mistake, and i think that they're going to pay for that, and that's why rubio won solidly, and i don't think trump is far behind there, so i think his 1 1/2 to 2-point margin. neil: we should stress they will be relying on picking up california which is democrat. 55 electoral votes, they would have a good lock on oregon, 7 votes here. if they were to squeak out pennsylvania, it would be another 20. can you see where we get the states together. anyone's guess. we should also look at this here because this is another interesting development. just what's going on in michigan and how that plays out and how the races play out here because one of the things with michigan and what that could portend is that some of the big minority vote that hillary clinton had been counting on is

not coming in the numbers she hoped or approaching the numbers that barack obama enjoyed four years ago, and that could tell you all you need to know about the market panic. that is very close to a brexit market panic right now, and one of the reasons why the peso is tumbling. last i checked it was down north of 9%. lou: 10% now. neil: amazing. what do you make, charles payne, of what's going on there? >> well, you know, the peso obviously with the wall and trade and all that stuff, whatever associates we have, i think the treasuries are something we should start to flash on the screen too, sort of i think that's a better harbinger. neil: like gold. >> exactly. you are seeing yields come down across the board pretty significantly, so treasuries you'd watch, obviously, because a lot of investors just want to take a look and see. listen, if there's a knee-jerk sell-off, there are a lot of

smart folks know who for the most part it's an emotionally driven question mark that will create a lot of opportunities. why not hide out in treasuries until the smoke clears. lou: trish has already recommended putting a couple of dollars aside to get ready. >> let me tell you something that might have been intel. one week ago, u.s. missed, stock hit $16.90 that stock reversed. this is a stock that should have extraordinarily well if donald trump wins. i know because i'm in the stock, i have subscribers in the stock. what the hell? a huge reversal, an intra-day low, i forget what it was, you look at the names like that that should do very, very well with the $500 billion infrastructure building thing and concentration on u.s.-centric companies. >> i think financials should do

better, trump has been clear he's going to revisit the crippling regulations imposed on the financial services industry that are causing tremendous problems. >> though goldman sachs will be down tomorrow. >> there is irony in what you're saying -- >> i would offer this cautionary note as we talk about this. what we are watching is transitory, it will likely be an opposite trade very quickly, remember 600 points on brexit one day and reversed and was back. neil: you're right about that. definitely right about that. lou: the speculator's dreamland. >> to be quite frank with you, we'll be in a range bound market if there is a trump market six months into his presidency and how the policies will match. lou: i'll leave the prognostication to you. i will just caution you. >> i think a massive sell-off is dumb, and people who are

smart probably make money on it. >> i think also we'll get a sense very quickly who his team is. interestingly enough, i have good information that hillary clinton and her team have a transition meeting set for thursday, so i wonder if that may indicate that there may be an adjustment that's necessary. neil: or an adjustment in that meeting. trish: didn't they cancel the fireworks? maybe they got new polling data. neil: bring you up to speed here, of course so many of the big states we don't know. it is a wash on the senate. democrats picked up one but lost one. in the house, two new seats for democrats, two fewer for republicans, of course, so that's kind of close to a wash there. but again, sort of like this wave that was going to take effect with hillary clinton piling up a huge lead and comfortable lead at that and the view she would take at least one of the houses of

congress with her. it is not panning out that way, and if it surprises you, it stuns the financial community across the globe. asian stocks are tanking. our futures are careening, and all over something that few people saw, donald trump possibly getting elected president of the united states. it's not so far-fetched at all. stick around. afoot and light-hearted i take to the open road. healthy, free, the world before me, the long brown path before me leading wherever i choose. the east and the west are mine. the north and the south are mine. all seems beautiful to me.

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. neil: all right, i want to go to connell mcshane and crunch the numbers where we are right now as donald trump is surprising folks, and who has the path that would get them to 270 which elects our president? >> reporter: really close, 150 to 122 in realtime, the states lighting up behind me are the states we called at fox. donald trump 150 electoral votes, 270 needed to win. i'll explain how this works, filling in the states we can assume based on what we've been looking at the race will go one way or another. will light up in that color and these numbers start to change, then back to the way we have them called. for example, if we assume mrs. clinton is going to win in california and up the west coast, we've gotten her up to 196. so in the clinton camp, they're hoping to take 9 more in

colorado which would get her up to 205, and coming back to the east, it gets a little more sketchy for mrs. clinton, maybe go to maine and add on 4 there, we're definitely not ready to do anything for argument's sake we do pennsylvania and go to 229 for mrs. clinton. leaving new hampshire on the board, florida on the board. back towards those in red in a moment. on the other side of this, we talked about michigan, wisconsin, minnesota, they hope to get 239. if we get wisconsin, that's 249. we stop there. on the republican side, i talked a number of times about the florida must-win, a hypothetical for donald trump, if he doesn't win these states like georgia, even north carolina, certainly a possibility, trish was talking about new hampshire, that gets him to 214. ohio is another one, with 18 electoral votes would get him to 239. have not come close to touching michigan. i keep coming back to that

right now. when we go out west we will look at the returns and how much have the hispanic voters helped out donald trump or gone against donald trump in a state like arizona? we don't know. if we give him 11 electoral votes there, he's up to 243. neil: by the way, connell, we can now say looks like hillary has won colorado. >> reporter: got the 9 here. yep. neil: she's favored to win california. so california would do it for her, right, in that rollout? >> no, we already had that. the 55 there. neil: couldn't tell if it was blue or light blue. >> reporter: 249 to 243. neil: the 249 is with california. okay. >> reporter: a little quirk in the system. ohio, by the way, connell, is for donald trump. he has won the 18 electoral votes for colorado. >> reporter: the other one i didn't color is nevada.

if we had nevada, 249 with michigan on the board. michigan could be the state, right? we thought it would be pennsylvania but all the story lines, as excited as we are about everything, a lot of that still holds, donald trump needs a blue state and flip it. the odds of doing so have gone up a lot. looking like polling numbers, actual numbers are looking good in michigan. real quick, look at the results as they come. in i have to reset the board to be able to do it. again, in michigan, where are we? 44, above 50% for donald trump. that's the state that will just have to keep watching obviously along with the rest like florida. neil: amazing here, donald trump has more -- the irony being and connell pointed it out. there are more paths for donald trump to get to 270 than hillary clinton. that could change. but i don't think, lou dobbs, that was the thinking going into tonight. lou: it certainly was not, and

again, all of the polling, not all of the polling but nearly all of the polling suggesting that this was going to be a perfunctory, the process, the result and the coronation again. seems almost every time hillary clinton is a candidate is assured by the orthodoxy in the conventional media that she is it. it is the most dangerous time for her, and she becomes the most vulnerable. we may be witnessing that again. trish: this may have been a very different race had they put forward a bernie sanders. had they put forward joe biden. the challenge for the democrats, frankly, was and is their candidate. neil: interrupt to you make the point. every time we call another battleground state for donald trump, we fall another 100 points in the futures. trish: my goodness, 721 now. neil: going to be a very expensive night. lou: by the way, some of us are

willing to pay the price. trish: and look, it's likely temporary. we were just talking about this. the markets tending to overly volatile. they react in extreme ways when they're caught offguard and being caught offguard right now. everybody is being caught offguard to a certain extent in that the polling data showed one thing and now we're seeing something else. so the market will need to adjust to that. neil: all right, showing donald trump leading in new hampshire as well. charles: the peso tumbling against the dollar. if he gets in there, bad news for them. lou: they will negotiate the height of the wall. neil: the height of the wall. charles: how are they going to pay for it if the peso is worthless. lou: denominated based on the surplus. neil: people saying why are we at this point, don? the minority vote wasn't what it was, the hispanic vote might not be breaking as people thought for hillary clinton.

the passion among young voters wouldn't be there. donald trump is voting more women than was thought to be the case. there's going to be a lot of crunching in this, it's not over. what do you think is going on? what is happening to the base that was supposed to propel hillary over the top? >> i think first of all, she is a 1990s candidate. she's trying to retool herself to be a candidate for 2016, but in the big picture is the idea is in the messaging is dated. so it's turned off young voters. young voters were very supportive of bernie sanders and so it was his ideas that were to the left but also the sense of fair play, and i think that the fact that there was this sense of rigging it or making it difficult for sanders dissuade voters. and most of all for african-american voters, hillary clinton has not articulated a vision for how to improve opportunity.

she has been, she's not been the candidate that talked about opportunity. improving education, captive to the union, she can't touch public education. she has not talked about entrepreneurship. she has not talked about providing access to capital for small businesses, and so african-american voters are not energized by her message and they're just not coming out for her. charles: rap music played a big role last week, jay-z, i have a son who turns 20, i'm an aficionado driving my son in the car. lou: you're a victim. charles: no, i think we listen to music too much. if you listen to it, i'm sure if you listen to it. here's what i hear, people who want to be successful. people who dream of actually owning gulf 5 jets. people who brag about working hard, people who want to be bosses like rick ross, forget about the cursing and other things, there are some dreams

in it. trish: jay-z got up and went on stage with hillary clinton and the things he says. charles: i'm not knocking what don says, if they were paying attention to what motivates the kids,er minimum wage. trish: everyone wants a shot. >> you're talking about many times they sing about donald trump, aspiring to be donald trump. charles: they are not aspiring to minimum wage. >> they don't want to be $15 an hour workers, this low expectation that the democratic party tends to impose on african-americans especially young african-americans and dreams, they're paying the price for that now. lou: it's a form of dependent paternalism on the part of the left. it hasn't worked. not working in any city in this country and has to be a way to get better. >> it's gotten worse, and the goals for african-americans are just like every other american, but somehow the democratic

party wants to place it someplace else. trish: donald trump is willing to go there in a way we've never seen. lou: powerfully and persuasively i give the man immense credit. the national liberal media does not, they are defending the system you are talking about that was created 40 years ago. trish: they make fun of him saying what do you have to lose? >> they've labeled him a racist and unfairly so. last week, he announced a proposal, a new deal for african-americans, and frankly, this country and the policies that we're seeing nationally and in cities like new york city are failures. charles: apathy towards hillary clinton more than anything else. she came out with the steal message. neil: she didn't appreciate the influence. >> she criticizes donald trump for how he talks about women and she goes on stage with

jay-z, a former drug dealer who says horrible things about women. neil: great stuff, i'm all over rap. i have seen "hamilton," so hello! i want to thank you very much, for staying so long here. fox can predict comfortably and project that republicans will retain control of the house of representatives. still too early to say that for the senate. they scare me when the music gets this loud. republicans keep house majority. can we do that again? i'd like the music again. ♪ they got the house. lou: quick music. neil: it is very good. we got a look at senate, how that's going. we got a look at race. a bunch of scenarios where it looks like donald trump can pull this off. i'm afraid to mention any state he wins because we go down another 100 points in the futures. it is what it is. these guys are not prepared for

it. and both candidates, hillary clinton and donald trump, have a victory speech and a concession speech. hello? i'd like to send 50 pizzas to france.

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-it's fair. -and it's fast. look good? looks great. this is how car buying was always meant to be. this is truecar. ♪ . neil: all right, former top economic adviser to president barack obama backing hillary clinton, it's still early austin, but are you worried? >> well, you know, the cubs won the world series, so anything can happen, neil. >> so you're very wary, extremely wary. >> she has to win pennsylvania, she has to win michigan, she has to win wisconsin. neil: why is she in this position, austin? what do you think is going on? >> i don't totally know, you know, i think partly the influence late in the day of

the stuff from the fbi and revisiting that had some impact. i think for anybody who complains about these long-term trends in the united states, whether it's wages or blue collar voters, et cetera, if they think donald trump is going to fix the problems they are subscribing to a false prophet. there's got to be some element of that. neil: what do you think hillary clinton is worried? she just tweeted out, this was at 8:55 p.m., a while ago, this team has so much to be proud of, whatever happens tonight, thank you for everything. so sounds worried. >> that does sound a little worried. good for her for rewarding her people and not pointing fingers of blame, one could imagine if donald trump ends up losing, he might not be as gracious to his staff as that. neil: you don't know that. >> i said might be.

i said might be. neil: i understand. >> i think if she carries those states in which she was favored, to the pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin, there's still going to be a knockdown dragout to the end, not over ohio, which trump obviously took. not florida, but instead new hampshire, nevada, maybe iowa, because there's some chance that we actually end up with a tie. neil: what would that tell you, austan if in michigan, the site of the auto rescue, the great manufacturing base of our country goes to donald trump? i mean, that's weird, isn't it? >> would be something. that would be something. that would be an indicator that there is a group of people that's far angrier than we knew. michigan is harder to poll than the typical state. i think that's what it would

mean. neil: my friend, thank you very much for sticking around. appreciate it. austan goolsbee. kennedy joining me now, and connell mcshane was spelling out the scenarios donald trump could take. this fewer options for hillary clinton. that is a complete reversal from traditionally the case. >> what i gleaned from the glue with austan goolsbee, they don't have a lot of answers and intraspection where hillary clinton is struggling at this point of the evening. everyone would assume 20 minutes from now the race would be called for her. that is not happening. he talks about michigan. this is a state she wasn't assuming this was going to be close and we talked about this earlier, neil. who called the tenor of michigan? who called the feeling of the voters there? it was michael moore, ultraleftist. neil: you are right about that. he's no fan of donald trump. >> not at all. he compared donald trump to a

pedophile. he said they're hurting, they've had their lives stolen by the establishment. no one is listening and you are seeing that play out in the votes there tonight. lou: i think we should give donald trump credit for calling the mood of the people of michigan. michael moore followed on and validated if you will, his statements, but trump is the one who made the choice. neil: and to put a lot of high priority into it. i want to take also a look at balance of power, how things stand now. other races going on. not only in the house of representatives but a third of the united states senate. liz claman crunching the numbers on that. >> reporter: neil, if the presidential race is surprising a lot of people, the senate races are not. they're behaving pretty much as expected so far. let me get you to the balance of power and what we have currently. when we began, republicans had control. dems need to pick up four, five seats for control. thanks to tammy duckworth, the

dems have picked up one. republican senator richard burr keeps his seat. burr had the big move, 51.1% to deborah ross's 45.5%. here's a race where republican senator tried not to distance himself from donald trump. he had bigger problems. 22 year congressional career on the line facing off against senator ross who is an attorney, she capitalized on urban voters who vote democratic. this race was going to be tight but he's got it. we have major races we are still waiting on, that would be pennsylvania, new hampshire and, of course, as we look at all of this, we will bring it to you the second we get those numbers. neil: great job, liz claman, very much. the house stays republican. it is looking tougher now for the senate to go democratic. still could happen, but not

pang out the way a lot of folks said. we want to stress with the race on the presidential side, neither donald trump or hillary clinton are presently close to the 270 they'll need to carry this, and it is a close popular vote battle as well. we're looking at all of this here. tonight show you how all of this is falling out on the financial markets which is our life and blood here. this is why i said fox business is about understanding that intersection about capital and our country's capital here, and it is showing itself in all its glory right now because this is not what they factored. in kennedy, we talked about how markets abhor uncertainty and can't get their hands on it. lou pointed out they are fickle beasts as well, but this is -- this is their way of saying, oh, my god, right? >> it is. it shows how the markets are disconnected from people, and most people are disconnected from the markets. as they see wall street

skyrocketing and personal balance sheets stay flat and stagnant, they feel the disconnection more than anyone. you see the markets in asia, the peso going down, it's interesting, you would have thought at the beginning of donald trump's presidential journey that as voters, the disconnected voters, they're the ones who say they trust him on the economy, yet it's the markets who have the yips when he starts doing well on a night like tonight. lou: i think what we're watching a market doing what it's supposed to do, adapting to new and changing circumstances, doing so perhaps missing the mark, overextending what's rational and appropriate, but nonetheless reacting and we're going to continue to see that. i think we've seen some easing here, not a lot, but some easing in the desperate, dramatic plunge that we've seen this evening, and i think it's going to come back relatively quickly as we see what the

likely outcome is. right now, the outcome is far from certain, and the indexes are far from where they were. neil: i didn't want to interrupt you, lou, but senator joe manchin, a democrat, told our bret baier he's not committed to staying a democrat in a 50/50 senate. wouldn't be that the killer that all of a sudden they get an even senate and one of the key players says i'm a republican. lou: speaking of being adaptive. neil: two independents caucus. >> yeah, why can't you have a republican switch to be independent and caucus with republicans when he sees fit. neil: this is weird, charles. charles: it really, really is. lou: i love it, i love it. >> you said it was going to be exciting. charles: you did. neil, you said it was going to be a blowout. trish: i want to touch on the

investment. neil: and i was drinking heavily. charles: what else is new. neil: thank you. trish: i just heard from an investor -- neil: why? it's bad for the heart. donald trump, donald trump, i wanted sympathy. look at this north carolina just called for donald trump. trish: wow. neil: it's big. lou: that is big. this is such an extraordinary thing. neil: don't you think when you hear the crowd, they're doing that for us. lou: i'm pretty sure they are, neil. neil: i love how you -- >> i thought they were replaying an alabama game out there. neil: i don't know if we can look at this, ralph. we have a very large crowd outside here. we have two studios, fox news and fox business covering this big event here. i think it's safe to say we're kind of into the futures thing, i don't know how bret is doing that. charles: perfect day to be outside watching. neil: it's a beautiful day, there are rabid fans, every time we go to the shot, there

are more people pushing in there. it's like new year's eve. lou: i think they're cheering the nikkei as well as the -- >> that does seem like a crazy crowd. >> at first it sounded like usa! usa! you are right. it was nikkei! nikkei! >> back to the market. i heard from investors who feel that the market is overreacting. the futures market, this is typical, volatile sell-off. people are nervous but they'll be opportunities because the market just needs to adjust. now if donald trump gets this thing, i mean, no one predicted. that i think on wall street, nobody thought it could happen and this will be very much a brexit-like scenario. neil: i wonder if it is this 1980s feel that we didn't appreciate dramatic shifts going on. where are those shifts? what's happening? charles: i wouldn't say anyone -- the market has been range

bound for a few months, locked into serious range. neil: talking about the political developments. charles: gets back to how much the policies have followed up. wall street would love to see lower regulations, lower taxes, talking about hitting the bottom lines for the earnings, that's the only caveat here. we are all in agreement whatever knee-jerk bounce it is, the concern is 5% sell-off just because it's a round number. but you know. neil: we were doomed. charles: 900 or a thousand points, that takes you down. then have you support, and you have to pick your spottis and believe it's going to take a while before the market decides, hey, we love the policies. new range is going to be lower than the old range. >> can i ask a question? what happens with the fed? do they raise rates before a new president? >> no, they're not going to raise rates in december. no. i don't think they could have anyway. the economic data has been horrible. neil: the world markets are tumbling, might not be doing.

that we're going to take a quick break and close out looking at a couple of the states and some of them are wild what's going on here. pennsylvania is tightening up with hillary clinton moving into a slight lead here, but again, anything can happen, probably will. but we're really at a point with north carolina, what's happened there, all bets are off for this election, we just have no idea to. lou's point, michigan, what's going on in wisconsin, minnesota still safely going for hillary clinton, but again, these are big powerful rust belt states supposedly out of reach for a republican, redefining it. that's what charles payne and i were talking about that's reaganesque or 1980ish of what's going on republican winning in areas he really shouldn't. more after this. we live in a pick and choose world.

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♪ ♪ neil: all right. this was one they didn't expect. they thought ron johnson was one and done, one term. the man he defeated six years ago, russ feingold, was heavily favor today win in a rematch, did not. this was considered one of the most vulnerable republican senate seats that was all but gone. apparently not so. ron johnson hangs onto that seat. republicans looking increasingly

likely to hang onto the united states senate. they will comfortably remain in control of the house, so even if hillary clinton wins tonight -- and that's far from a guarantee, folks -- she would be dealing with a republican congress, both the house and the senate. peter barnes on how the clinton folks are responding to all these developments. >> reporter: here at the javits center, neil, they're anxious, starting to look glum, nervous. they're watching the monitor with other networks up here behind me as they roll out the news, and they're break out into a roar when they hear a piece of good news like pennsylvania, but they've been awfully quiet. they've been gathering in small groups. another thing that's happened is that this platform that we were on was crawling with clinton aides earlier in the night all telling us how the hispanic vote was going to help them, latino

surge, the early voting surge was going to help them, that was going to be the cushion for them tonight. the asian-americans were breaking for clinton. but apparently what we're seeing, and i'm seeing -- looking at what's trending on twitter, is this silent majority for trump, that trump and others himself have talked about. but right now they're just trying to get their hands around this, what is happening tonight, and they don't, they don't have really any answers. neil? neil: now, do they talk, peter, about, you know, obviously they're going on hearing a detroit free press report saying she will win michigan. right now we can't say, but she would need to win michigan and wisconsin to put her back in a trajectory to getting the 270. oddly enough, their options, their ricketily path to --

victory path to 270 gets to be more complicated than mr. trump's. >> reporter: yes. it's, obviously, a lot more complicated. and, you know, they all seem to just be kind of off in their rooms trying to figure out what to do, what to say. we know that she was working on two speeches as you reported, one concession speech, one victory speech. but other than the tweet that you just read a few minutes ago, radio silence from the clinton camp. in this place is supposed to close up at 2:00. so i don't know if after 11 if we, if they get closer or to being able to make, you know, a final call on tonight. but unclear if she'll be coming here or not. but there are thousands of people waiting for her to show up. neil: wouldn't that be something if it is called for donald trump, and they're the ones not accepting the results?

we'll see. peter barnes, thank you very much. minutes away from hearing from the state of california, hawaii, idaho, oregon, washington state. but joined by trish regan and charles payne, lou dobbs, kennedy. kennedy, that's where she could rack up some electoral votes, california alone, assuming that goes her way -- kennedy: i think that's a pretty safe assumption. neil: yeah, not enough, you know, the way you roll this out, it's not a gimme to 270 for her. kennedy: oh, no, it's certainly not. and i don't think anyone on her team assumed that the path would be this circuitous at this point in the night. neil: absolutely. kennedy: i think their early polling, their hubris and their confidence showed them that she was going to have this thing locked up just five minutes from now -- neil: at the base enough of it would stay with her to put her over the top and, lou dobbs, that didn't happen. at least so far. lou: it certainly hasn't happened to this point. and what is interesting about these numbers on the electoral map is trump has built a

sufficient cushion to absorb the blow of california's -- neil: very good point. lou: they are on a track irrespective -- and it's hard to even imagine this, but they're on a track where california's unimportant to donald trump right now. trish: you know what the democrats got wrong here? what they failed to understand is that americans want someone to vote for rather than someone to vote against. and they made this campaign all about sort of her versus him and how he was so bad, and there was nothing really all that special necessarily about her. you just needed to vote for her against him. lou: you know the reality is she had no vision that he articulated to the voters, but she did successfully, for at least the national liberal media which already had that foundation, she did define donald trump for a very long time. but the silent majority -- and, by the way, the reason we call it the silence majority not

because they're voiceless, but because the national liberal media has simply ignored them -- kennedy: and perhaps they don't pick up a phone when a pollster calls. lou: god bless them. neil: neither of them are there -- we should point out that we're minutes away from another 82 electoral votes in five states coming to pass, california, hawaii, idaho, oregon and washington. we think we might have a better idea of where we stand after that. after this. ♪ ♪ whether it's connecting one of the world's most innovative campuses.

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afoot and light-hearted i take to the open road. healthy, free, the world before me, the long brown path before me leading wherever i choose. the east and the west are mine. the north and the south are mine. all seems beautiful to me. neil: donald trump has won the state f florida. donald trump has picked up the 29 electoral votes from florida, and that is a stunner. by almost all the latest tracking polls in the sunshine state, hillary clinton was ahead

anywhere from two, one survey had her ahead five points. in the end, she loses in this state. there's going to be a lot of hand wringing about what happened, but he picks up those 29 electoral votes. we are also following a number of other states that are closing in the next couple of seconds including the state of california. and as expected, that is a state that is generally democratic-friendly, and it will be democratic-friendly once again. hillary clinton picks up that one, and it's a biggie, 55 electoral votes. washington state also goes to hillary clinton, and its 12 electoral votes. hawaii goes to hillary clinton and its four electoral votes, the same number as new hampshire. and idaho -- this, again, keeping to what we expected -- donald trump picking four votes up from that state and winning idaho. excellent potatoes, by the way, but i digress. connell mcshane crunching all

of this, who needs what to get over the top? >> reporter: okay. so this is the area we have just highlighted on just about everybody's map, michigan and wisconsin. no matter how you look at the map, there have been some polling errors done in both of those states. they are much, much closer than we thought, in fact, leaning in a different direction than we thought. you take a closer look at the state, we have talked about michigan already. take a look where the it is right now just so we can tell. it's definitely closer than the last time we looked x that has to be because down in the detroit area -- yes, absolutely, in wayne county the lead is starting to get bigger for hillary clinton. president obama, when he won there last time around, it's jumped up to 68. she needs to be 70 plus there percentage wise to come all the way back in michigan. now, i really want to take a look at wisconsin. we haven't talked about it enough tonight, and this could be the key to victory for donald trump depending on how, well, the next couple of hours go. at the moment, he has the lead, 860,000 votes to 804,000 for

secretary clinton. wisconsin demographically sets up well for donald trump, six in ten of registered voters are white and do not have college degrees, right in the wheelhouse of what mr. trump has been doing. he is still trailing, but in the rest of the state you have a lot of red here, and as we've seen in many other states with white working class voters, trump has not only done well, but he has done much better than expected. you know, it can't be said enough that in those two states from the polling we had going in, there's not been one poll in the state of wisconsin that's included where donald trump has led. he's trailed in every single one of them, and he may win the state this evening if these trends home. and remember back in the primaries, neil, just as a final point, that was a state where trump struggled in the state of wisconsin, and there was so much made about the fact that his message wasn't selling there, and wouldn't it be ironic if that puts him over the top. you want to do some what-if

scenarios? we're at 216 for the republican, trump, 202 as more states light up for the democrat, hillary clinton. so you've already gone out west and given california, so, you know, we're going to go all the way up the west coast. so we're at 209, colorado is already on the board, you start looking for states -- pennsylvania is 20, if we do that for secretary clinton, it gets her to 229. now, it goes back to gray because we haven't called it yet, so that's not showing up on our board. up in maine, that's four electoral votes. if she wins in new hampshire, these are all what -- neil: maine is one of those -- >> reporter: yeah, maine can split, that's a very good point. two votes out of the four that go to the statewide win so that could be a 3-1 situation very easily in maine, and the way this night is going, that might actually matter. we haven't called minnesota, so that's 247 for secretary clinton. probably should stop there. on the red side of things,

you're going to have to color in georgia, donald trump's going to have to go out west and probably win in arizona and utah. that gets him to 249. that's why i'm saying it's going to come down to michigan and wisconsin for trying to put him over the top and get 270 needed to win. neil: boy, just incredible. but georgia now, you didn't punch that in, or did you? >> reporter: yes, i did. that's 16 more. so that gets him up -- kennedy: look at iowa. >> reporter: kennedy just said iowa? that's right, 255. that's why it comes down to those two states, because if he wins one or the other, he can get at least very close to the 270 that's needed to win. neil: just incredible. and then just as you pointed out, rejoined by charles and trish regan and, of course, kennedy and lou dobbs, then wisconsin would seal the deal. charles: i think it comes down to wisconsin. the lowest of all these different outfits, real clear politics had it at 272-266. they were giving it to hillary

clinton without her winning north carolina, florida or nevada. well, she's lost north carolina and florida. so if she won nevada, maybe based on early voting, that's six. that's 278. but if trump gets wisconsin, that would take him to 276. and, of course, take ten from her. so i'm thinking wisconsin going to be the make or breaker right now. lou: so where are we in wisconsin right now? charles: she's leading -- neil: he's leading. charles: he's leading in wisconsin right now, and new york times has him at an 86% chance of winning -- lou: by the way, nate silver? 55% for trump. [laughter] we're waiting for an update -- kennedy: i love that wisconsin, that the race may boil down to this state, because this has been one of the most politically interesting states for the last few cycles. charles: which one? kennedy: wisconsin. scott walker's journey alone, you look at the trouble that donald trump had in wisconsin because this is a very

motivated, very politically active state. and, you know, this is also a state that's not going to be told how to vote or what to think. lou: and reince priebus -- kennedy: it all comes down, plus the interesting senate race that no one -- everyone has been so wrong with this thing. neil: increasingly likely that they're going to hang on to the senate here. by the way, we're getting a tweet -- is it a tweet? this whole internet thing is going to be big. [laughter] apparently, according to hillary clinton campaign, they are expecting a long night. they're adding that nothing has ever come easier for her, and she has had to fight more everything her entire life. well, i think right now the priority is surviving the night. we can worry about the life later on. but, lou dobbs, i mean, this is an interesting coalition of states he's got going here. and not at all your typical republican table. lou: well, why should it be? neil: right. lou: there's been nothing typical about the -- to

kennedy's point about wisconsin, how interesting it is that you have the rnc chairman who is a wisconsin, a member of the wisconsin mafia, paul ryan are, the great betray arer of the party's nominee -- neil: but he did say he voted for him. it was tough for him to say -- lou: i saw that last weekend. and the state would just be so appropriate that it be wisconsin who took, who takes donald trump over the top here. it is -- and, by the way, that's, you know, it would be appropriate for any state. this is, if it comes to be, greatest political victory, presidential victory that we've witnessed since -- neil: what's odd about it too is it's not like a reagan landslide insofar it's just a topsy-turvy thing, right? trish, you think about it, states that would traditionally go democrat are not, and not --

he's not getting all those republican locks. so it's like everything has been reversed. but enough so that his lead has built to a prohibitive one. trish: but in many ways it's not surprising because i think fundamentally americans are not partisan driven, they are fundamentally only cared about their own future, their neighbors' future, and they look at these candidates -- lou: and the nation. trish: and, of course, their nation. but a lot of it's economically driven. and they look at hillary clinton, and they see her ties to wall street, and they see the $200,000 speeches that she wasn't -- lou: massive corruption in your face, thank you, wikileaks. neil: don't get started on the whole hillary thing. lou: no, but it's where it is. trish: where is my democratic party? what kind of party is not representing the middle class? neil: all right. okay, i want to go to adam shapiro right now, taking a look at things and how it's all sorting out. adam. >> reporter: well, people here in hillsborough county in

florida, i mean, this party, the republican party of hillsborough county, when fox called florida for donald trump, they just erupted with loud cheers, neil. and i just, real quick, i just want to let you know james here, when you came in this evening, you weren't looking so happy. we were talking, and then about five minutes ago the cheers erupted. how did it feel when they finally called florida for trump? >> you know, when they called florida and ohio, everything changed. we're watching the futures markets, and for some reason people are selling stocks because trump looks like he's going to win, i think it's not such a good idea. you did ask me how we felt when we first come in, right now we're pretty excited, needless to say, so we're waiting for michigan and wisconsin. they'll be the deciding factor, and we're going to have a couple more drinks as soon as that happens. >> reporter: thank you, james. the people here, obviously, very excited. they think we're in a moment of history. and, again, as we talked about

over the last month, they're part of an historic movement. it's not just tonight when a president's elected. these people and millions like them across the country believe that they are part of a movement, and that movement is donald trump to clean up washington. neil: thank you very much, my friend. adam shapiro. they have fbn there, so we really love that. donald trump, as we said, did pick up utah with its six electoral votes. where's connell? is he wandering around? trish: there he is. neil: put the drink down, mcshane. [laughter] i'm kidding. he's been doing great work here. donald trump at 222 -- >> reporter: i need to get my magic map. there we go. 222-202. we've got to start running through some of these what-if scenarios and see where we go. i think we forgot alaska last time around, and that might have messed up our math. so we have to start coloring that in. let me go back to the democratic states and see. the if we go out on the west,

202-209, i think still the 20 in pennsylvania, a lot of people are thinking -- neil: so you think those 20 go to her. >> reporter: well, you know, if they don't, she's in real trouble. i feel like what's the point of running through the exercise? the ten here is 239 for hillary clinton, that was minnesota. there's four in maine that she could get to get her to 243. there's four more in new hampshire to 247. and there's, you know -- neil: but trump has been leading in new hampshire throughout the night. >> reporter: well, i'll take you to the realtime results in a second on that one. georgia is -- neil: is that right? >> reporter: -- that would get trump to 241. same with arizona which would get him to 252. i've left nevada and our two favorites here on the board. so who do you want me to give nevada to? that's six electoral votes. so if we -- yeah, clinton blue? if we give nevada to clinton -- >> reporter: nevada. kennedy: nevada.

>> reporter: now you have 26 electoral votes that are up for grabs in the two states we've been talking the most about. so even if hillary clinton -- i think charles was speculating that maybe michigan stays democrat, 69, and then you go with the ten here, that gets trump to 262. kennedy: what about georgia and iowa? >> reporter: now, the iowa vote definitely leaning in the republican side. that would put trump at 268. [laughter] hey, neil, you were the one that mentioned there was one electoral -- neil: right, right. trish: and new hampshire's still out there? >> reporter: new hampshire's still out there. so we should go into the actual results because then we get a sense of how the states are really performing. so, you know, pennsylvania we haven't called michigan, wisconsin, minnesota. we haven't even checked on pennsylvania in a little while to see where it is. that's certainly one that hillary clinton would like to have, and it still looks good for her at 49, so i think we still have to be looking back at

michigan and wisconsin to see where that goes. you wanted to know how new hampshire was looking in realtime, it's still trump 48-64, you know -- 48-46? kennedy: can we see iowa and georgia for the win? >> reporter: georgia at the moment is still a trump. that's one that everybody has been assuming would go to the trump column, we just aren't comfortable calling it yet -- lou: do we know why? kennedy: what are you waiting for? neil: that is odd. i can only imagine because they haven't gotten enough urban areas to report? he was leading by a big amount. >> reporter: when we were talking about michigan earlier, the lead was much bigger or than this, and then we started to say, boy, it must be going in his direction, but then votes start to come in -- neil: that's why the detroit free press is giving the attention -- kennedy: [inaudible] neil: she is going to win it. >> reporter: she's at 67.5. i feel like she still needs to

get higher, look where the president was, 73, when he won wayne county and defeated mitt romney. so he was a lot higher than she was at that point. so, you know, we'll see here. sometimes in this map doesn't reset the right way for me, we'll have to go in and come back out to it. that's pretty much where we are right now. the michigan and wisconsin thing, i think charles is right -- neil: i think it comes down to that, michigan and wisconsin. lou: is alaska in the count, the 222? >> reporter: no. hasn't been -- neil: and what is that, three electoral votes? trish: three. >> reporter: doesn't close until, what is it, one in the morning, right? neil: we've got blake burman at trump headquarters. blake, what's the mood there? >> reporter: well, the mood, and i think you can probably hear some of it behind me, starting to increase, the cheers and the chants, as the night goes on, as the states get ticked off. north carolina, florida, loud, loud cheers in here, neil. but i want to pick up on a point that you guys were just talking

about. i spoke a little while ago to senator jeff sessions who, as you know, was one of the earliest supporters for donald trump on capitol hill. the senator from alabama. and be here's what he said to me. he said that they feel, the trump team, that donald trump will end up when it's all said and done, they believe, performing better than mitt romney with the margins among african-americans, union voters and democrats. now, i submit to you as you sit there and talk about the state of michigan, sounds like that fits that probe file, a state -- profile, a state with a large african-american population, union voters and one that is traditionally democrat. as i told you last hour or a couple hours ago, it is one that the rnc felt was most certainly in play over the last week or so. i would also submit to you that it was the one state -- while polling was pretty good in the primary -- it was the very one state that lost when it came to

bolling at least on the democratic side. all the polls leading up to the that were showing that hillary clinton was going to beat bernie sanders there in a landslide. she ended up losing, i believe, by one or two percent. it was the one that really, really was off to the side of the others. and as you watch michigan tonight, it is certainly a state here that could come into play and potentially tip for one side to the next, neil. neil: amazing. blake, thank you very, very much. again, in michigan, you're talking about 16 electoral votes. this minnesota, you are talking 10. we were showing iowa, can we get a look at that again, guys? that's a close one, but right now donald trump leading in those six electoral votes could be very, very important as they come down to parceling this out for just the smallest number possible. connell, you were going to point out something here? >> reporter: well, charles was talking about dane county in wisconsin as being one to watch and curious how much the lead was for secretary clinton, 69%

there. we're wondering whether she can come all the way back in this state. comparing that to 2012, president obama was at 72%. we're seeing that in a number of states where even where mrs. clinton is running unfairly large margins, and this particularly goes for urban or suburban counties, she's underperforming what the president did in 2012. and so even, you know, the same is true really in michigan in many ways, and that's going to to be the thing to watch with. you know, overall just in wisconsin when we look at this map, it's really remarkable percentage wise. i know it's getting closer now, but this was such a safe state for the democrats, right, neil? four years ago, 53% for the president to 46 for mitt romney. so, boy, has that changed. and that is, there's something -- no matter how -- maybe it's repetitive at this point, but this is the map from 2012. there were some serious polling errors going on. even if secretary clinton comes

back and wins one or both of these states, very few people expected it to be this close. neil: just incredible. all right. again, the only other state we're waiting to close is alaska at one a.m., all three electoral votes here. but the fact of the matter is where we stand tonight is they're separated by very, very little. and the fact that we're even here at this point where it looks like the house will stay in republican hands, it's looking increasingly likely, especially given senator johnson's surprise win in wisconsin, protecting and keeping that republican seat, that it looks very likely that republicans maintain control of the senate. but the one thing very few were counting on is republicans gaining control of the white house. donald trump is within a stone's electoral throw of doing just that. that would mean republicans controlling all three branches of government. and here is what's being celebrated in the financial world. that prospect. look at this. the futures tumbling, asian

markets tumbling because they are having a hard time adjusting to president trump. more after this. ♪ ♪ ♪

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♪ neil: welcome back, everybody. this is the popular vote throughout the country right now, and donald trump has about a two million vote lead over hillary clinton. so he is winning the popular vote as well as the electoral vote for the time being, but it is tight. rarely do you see the electoral vote kind of matching the tightness of the popular vote here. but all of this is weighing on the markets. well, this is not really what any of them had thought would happen. and kelly kellyanne conway is tg out to people, stop saying that all pollsters missed it. again, that there were some -- including her own internal tracking polls -- that had this sort of scenario spelled out here. again, to get to 270, it would just take a shift of a couple of states for either candidate to do that. but, you know, there are a number of states where you might be wondering, well, why haven't they called them yet? georgia, for example, a safe republican bastion if ever there was one.

it had turned pinkings -- pink, as you know. but again with, we have not formally and cannot formally call that state just yet and its 16 electoral votes, but it would, obviously, be a big win for donald trump if he could cement that down. so georgia right now, he has a comfortable lead. he is expected to pull this out here but, again, we're not calling it at this point. michigan is still in play, also 16 electoral votes here. minnesota, another state that's in play, ten electoral votes there. and then some of these smaller states with their smattering of offers could change. oregon, as we expected, with its seven electoral votes -- i thought we had already called this, but now we are officially calling it for hillary clinton, a pretty liberal state at that. one of the first states to legalize pot. kennedy: recreational marijuana. neil: not that there's anything wrong with that. kennedy: that's my home state.

all mail-in voting in oregon, by the way. sit around and smoke weed and -- neil: oh, my god, she won! [laughter] cheryl casone keeping track of this. what is really prompting this, causing this? >> reporter: well, it's interesting because there is something, neil, that we pointed out early on in the evening, some data we were seeing on a national level. i want to bring it back up to you now because it really is going to give you a sense of the national mood and what we are seeing with this surge in donald trump's taking north carolina, florida and ohio. take a look at the policies of the next president should they be same as president obama, 28. but look at this. should the next president be more conservative? 47% saying more conservative. i point this out on a national level because we saw this very early on. now, some of the states that are still up in question in the air oz of right now, let's go to michigan and the question about trade. should we trade with other countries, 31% say, yes. does it take away from u.s.

jobs? 50% are saying that it takes u.s. jobs. that's something to watch in michigan because, remember, donald trump, jobs to mexico, jobs to china, that's what he said. 18 months ago he announced his presidency. another state we're waiting on here, nevada. that's how you say it, guys, i've been yelled at many times about that. in a head to head matchup, clinton 49%, donald trump 45%. and then wisconsin. again, a state that we are waiting on right now. i want to give you this. the president's approval rating, his job performance, why does this matter? because this could have a direct effect on hillary clinton, 52% saying approve, 47% say they disapprove. so, again, neil, these are the states up in question, but that national mood question, that first question, really is playing out across the country right now. back to you. neil: thank you very much, cheryl casone. pennsylvania in play with its 20 electoral votes and separated here by just a couple of points

with hillary clinton now moving out front in that state. way too early to tell in new hampshire, too close to call, separated by about a little more than a point. so we can't call that just yet. michigan, one of those closely-watched states with the 16 electoral votes. they are really just a half a percentage point apart. sure enough, that is the case. so the bottom line here is that even winning all those states together would not seal the deal for hillary clinton, and that alone, i think, lou dobbs, is all you really need to know about this race. lou: and it tells you how long this is going to be tonight. [laughter] as we look at this, she is foreclosed with the two biggest prizes that remain. neil: yeah. lou: and this is hardly the position we thought we would be in, and the trump campaign has got to be thrilled with where they are right now. because they have still a very

clear path to the victory. trish: well, kellyanne conway did say, right, last week that there are six paths to victory, and she said all those polls -- you mentioned the tweet, neil -- all those polls that everybody has been looking at, they're not right. that her data was suggesting otherwise. lou: by the way, in addition to being the campaign manager, she is one of the country's leading pollsters. a great -- charles: specializes in women's issues for fortune 505 companies. -- 500 companies. i think the problem with patrols isn't the numbers, but how do you measure enthusiasm? how do you measure apathy, you know? i get breakfast downstairs in the mornings, and my, you know, i always talk to the people there, and there's a young lady, she reminds me of my niece. i said, you know, you going to vote? nah, i'm not into it. are you registered? no, i'm not. so if a pollster says who do you

like, she might have said hillary, but she can't go to the polls, and she wouldn't go if she was registered. i think that's where this polling -- they're going to have to figure something out, because i think hillary spent 30 million -- lou: i'm worried about your niece. did she vote? charles: my niece voted but the young lady downstairs, unfortunately, could not. kennedy: dave chapelle has been doing some really funny stand-up, and he said that hillary is not right and that donald trump a true gangsta and, you know, there are people who have been summing up the race differently. i've been talking a lot to one of the hosts of the breakfast club, he was at javits center. he's going to be on colbert a little later, he said it's a very somber mode. the passion's not there. it's not just because in my estimation barack obama isn't running this year, it's because, i mean, think about it, you've got a rich, old, white lady who is accountable for nothing. but you look at the community 245 a lot of these would-be voters are are from, and how

have their families been decimated by some of the policies from the clintons -- of the clintons from the -- charles: i don't know that she couldn't excite them because of her message. i'm telling you, my son -- trish: but there's never been much of a message, right? from the beginning -- charles: she has a -- trish she kept criticizing him for saying he was light on policy. he was talking about trade, jobs -- charles: she has these big white papers, and if you want to read 400 pages, you might get lost. my son is really a great harbinger or -- neil: i'm sorry, i want to interrupt. wisconsin goes to donald trump. charles: there you go. i think that's it. ten electoral votes in wisconsin going to -- charles: i think it's over. neil: that puts him tantalizingly close to the number he'll need to close that deal. we're not in that position yet. scott walker was --

[laughter] charles: hear the crowd? neil: he was introducing senator johnson. i want to go to this right now because this is one of the more surprising developments, the fact that ron johnson has gone on to win a seat. he was considered the most endangered, vulnerable, whatever you want to put it -- kennedy: next to mark kirk. neil: yeah. and he lives to fight another day, another six years. beating the man he beat six years ago, russ feingold. let's listen in to this a little bit because this is a big development here. donald trump closes in on the electoral votes he'll need to be the next president of the united states. >> thank you. thank you, wisconsin. thank you, wisconsin. [cheers and applause] thank you. thank you. [cheers and applause] thank you. so apparently we didn't run out of beer this year, huh? thank you all. i so appreciate it.

this is a big night. it's a big night -- [cheers and applause] it's a big night for wisconsin, it's a big night for america. but i have to take some time to thank some people. i'd like to first thank my wife jane. [cheers and applause] jane has, jane has just been a rock, she's been so supportive. jane's a patriot, and i could not have done this without jane. i want to thank my kids, jen and her husband chris, my son ben, his wife courtney -- neil: all right. we are following senator johnson here. it is it is safe to say now with that pickup -- it's not a pickup, it's just protecting an already, you know, established republican seat that was very much in danger. the house already remains under republican control, the senate likely will. iowa, iowa now has just gone for

donald trump. so connell mcshane, if you can crunch that, i think four electoral votes or six? six electoral votes. >> reporter: yes. neil: i think you're beginning to notice what's going on here, my friend. with iowa and capturing that state, donald trump is inching tantalizingly close to 270 electoral votes. that's what he will need. he is leading in the popular vote as well by a few million, a couple of percent. this is one of those rare occasions, kennedy, where before i get to connell where the popular and the electoral vote are kind of mirroring each other. kennedy: yes. one of the big assumptions is that this race seemed as though it were getting closer and closer and closer and it was going to mirror where one candidate would take the electoral, the other would take the popular. the country can obviously withstand it. at this point right now you're absolutely right, it looks as though they are both moving in the same direction. pollsters are going to have to be asking themselves -- and both

campaigns, especially her campaign -- how did we get this so wrong? at point in the night? he hasn't gottennen to 270 -- gotten to 270. but i don't think anyone in her camp -- neil: and i'm glad you said that. neither has gotten to 270, and there is math that could favor each of them doing so. it gets a little more complicated for hillary clinton. but to the left of your screen, clinton headquarters at the jacob javits center and donald trump's just a couple of blocks away at the hilton. they're in stunned silence at clinton headquarters. and this is the latest count we have. connell mcshane, maybe we can cobble together what happens now. let's say we made the assumption that hillary clinton picks up pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes. play out -- >> reporter: all right. 238-209 now. okay, so pennsylvania's -- plus

20, that would get her to 229. we just had this conversation how maine could be 3-1. let's just say she gets all four, and then there's also new hampshire in the northeast which would get her to 237. now, she must win minnesota a that's ten more to 247. and now when you go out west, let's see, i mean, you start to go to the r side of things. i don't want to forget about alaska. we've been kind of assuming even though we don't have a lot of polling on it that alaska would go to the red column and get donald trump up to 241. you're going to also put georgia in that column with 16 more to get him to 257, and, you know, we've left michigan on the board right now which is, obviously, the one that's going to matter the most, and i think i've left arizona on the board because maybe i shouldn't make any assumptions. you can get donald trump right to the precipice of the 270 even if hillary clinton does come back in the results in michigan

and win that. you'd be very close with the one electoral vote in maine, possibly, to get this. we were talking earlier that wisconsin would be enough to put him over the top. it may be a tad on the premature side because i think maine, again, could be split one way or the other. it's not outside the realm of possibility. i hate to say this, we could go 269-269, and then the race -- this is back to where we are now, 238-239x then the race would go to the house of representatives, and presuming with republican control, donald trump would till win it. -- still win it. that's why these odds are high right now. neil: david stockman is joining u of course, he was ronald reagan's budget director. he had expressed frustration with both of the premier candidates on issues that were near and dear to him. but to give credit, he had sensed this rage and the fact that trump was the kind of guy to shake things up. critical, again, of both

candidates. whatever he's building here, david, is something that few saw coming, and the coalition that he's built or maybe the coalition that is up ralphing for hillary clinton -- unraveling for hillary clinton, what do you think? >> well, i have a news flash for you. you're too timid to call it, but trump won, and here's why: he's maintained the romney reds. that's 206 votes. he won the two big end chi lad das, florida and ohio. i'm sure he'll win the second district of maine, that's 254. he won wisconsin, 264. he won iowa, that's 270. and, therefore, we have a thunder bolt. we have a brexit on steroids -- neil: wait, wait, wait, how did you get to the 270? explain that again. i beg you not to repeat each state again -- >> no, no, no -- lou: david, could you do this slowly? [laughter] >> 206 is the romney reds from

last time. neil: gotcha. >> another 47 is the big enchilada, florida and ohio. 253. the second district of maine, i'm pretty sure he'll win, 254. ten votes for wisconsin, 264. six votes called for iowa. my math, i think, adds to 270. that's the thunder bolt. that is the brexit on steroids. neil: okay, fine. lou was writing it all down, and i'm looking at him -- lou: let me put it this way, david stockman just took us to school -- neil: i think you're right. he took us to the woodshed. let's assume you're right, and who am i to second guess one of the greatest number crunchers ever, but trish regan was saying earlier this unusual way he went about it, by more going after a lot of the democratic base -- >> right. neil: that's pretty remarkable. explain what you think happened.

>> well, the good news is the night is almost over. the bad news is the national nightmare starts tomorrow morning. the united states will become ungovernable for the next year. there will be chaos -- neil: what do you mean ungovernable? >> it will -- because we're going to have a debt ceiling expiration in march, there's no way they'll extend it without a government shutdown time after time. trump has no programs. he was -- he keyed in on the fact that the people are fed up with the establishment -- neil: excuse me, as you're speaking, georgia has gone, as we expected it would, for donald trump, and that putting him -- but as you say with your numbers and i'll trust yours even though i didn't understand how you got there, but i will trust you that he's just on the verge of becoming -- lou: 269. neil: go ahead, i'm sorry. no, i was just saying that washington will shut down.

we'll have a government that doesn't function, can't raise the debt ceiling, can't cut taxes, can't do anything. the fed is now going to be in, you know, the spotlight. trump said that we have a huge bubble, it's fat and ugly and it's going to crash. he's right. medicalneil: well, who's betterd to deal with that? donald trump or hillary clinton? >> neither of them. neither of them has a program. trump does not have a program. canceling nafta is going to accomplish nothing. cutting $4 trillion in taxes without any spending cuts, he said he wouldn't touch social security, he wouldn't touch medicare, he's going to raise defense, i don't know what he's thinking. we are going to have fiscal chaos. the market will be down several thousand points within the next couple of days. it will precipitate a recession. when we get a recession, we're going to be back into the trillion dollar deficit -- neil: my god, what do you think of the weather? [laughter]

>> no. but the point is you have to face this. we have been -- neil: fair enough. >> -- living in a fantasy land, and we're just going to begin to start reckoning with it tomorrow. lou: david, i take your point. i even understand the there trajectory that -- trajectory that you're trying to construct here, but in each instance you failed to recall that it was donald trump who started talking about $20 trillion in national debt. we're going to have to see what the future holds with congress, both the house and the senate in terms of leadership. we also have the prospect of having a president-elect here who is a very successful leader. he's demonstrated that he reflects a good number of americans, we're going to find out whether it's more than 50%. but nonetheless, it's a good number. and i just think that you're creating -- i could see that reaction if you had maintained

the status quo. that would be an entirely appropriate response of the markets and i think the entirely wrong reaction to new leadership in washington, d.c. which would get everyone, you know, brighter prospects and -- charles: let me ask -- neil: we are showing hillary clinton headquarters. kennedy: somber place. there are some faces longer than john kerry's right now. charles: i just want to ask david the supply side aspects, the lower taxes, jettisoning all those -- because i'm with you with respect to the debt and all the promises that were made, you know? so could that be offset? >> i doubt it because all the regulations he's going to cancel will go into court, it'll all be challenged. he won't be able to cut taxes. we've got 20 trillion of debt now. when i was with reagan cutting taxes in 1981, we had one trillion of debt. it's a totally different world.

trump has basically not said one program he'll cut. he's said nothing about entitlements. there's no way that he's going to stop the debt from going from 20 trillion to 30 trillion within a very few years. we are in crisis, bigtime crisis -- lou: david, we've been in crisis for decades, in point of fact, in terms of fiscal policy, an utter disaster, and you are sitting here suggesting that the man who looks like he's going to become the president-elect at this particular moment is not the one who sounded the clarion call on precisely a disastrous crisis, fiscal condition for the united states. i mean, he is the one who did bring it to national attention. >> no, the only thing he did was mention the $20 trillion -- lou: would you like hip to be hide-bound with specific policy prescriptions given the fact that it would have been a very unwise course to take? >> no. i think his judgment is so bad to say i have to raise defense

spending, his judgment is so bad that he can't even say we'll do something about the wealthy retirees. he has no mandate. i've been in washington a long time. if you don't have a mandate, you will get nothing -- lou: can i say something to you, david? >> yeah. lou: one of the problems are the people who get elected to office and start screaming mandate when they have 48% or 50.1% of the vote. that's not a mandate, it's a damn election. and this mandate stuff is for authoritarian, statist regimes. it has nothing to do with democracies. >> okay. but the wall street/washington ruling elites -- lou: the hell with the elites. didn't you see the results of the election to this point? the hell with the elites. >> no, i just called it. i want to tell you, they will not let him rural -- neil: we don't know that. believe me, i do want to get into this, and a lot of dissertation potential here.

but we are hearing now from the hillary clinton headquarters that some ofhe folks there a are a little sad and derespond dent. the overwhelming majority, we're told, are still there, but some are beginning to leave. kennedy: not only that, some are leaving, some are outside crying. there are hillary clinton followers, worshipers and supporters who have bathed in her hubris for the last 15 months, and they are now at this moment despondent because they see that her challenger, the man who was never meant to be president because he and his followers are so deplorable. sits at 254 electoral votes, just 16 votes away from the presidency. where does that leave her? one can only guess. but it's not good. >> well, i would only follow up by saying, yes, the country has repudiated the clinton crime family, and it's about time. but repudiating the ruling elite does not rebuild, you know, the

situation for the future. that's the problem. charles: the bottom line, david, essentially you are saying that ultimately we have to take pain in this country for, short-term pain to have a better long-term trajectory. >> exactly right. and that's why the market -- neil: all right. i want to thank you all. this is the scene at clinton headquarters in new york at the jacob javits9 center where they cannot fathom what they are witnessing. the prohibitive front-runner for the presidency is on the verge, potentially, of losing it. and donald trump, who they laughed at -- the president of the united states laughed at, who joe biden said he'd want to take him back and, you know, whack him, well, donald trump is whacking them. donald trump is shocking the world right now, and it is landing like a thud in the financial community. take a look at what is happening right now to our futureses and to foreign markets in asia where they are slip sliding away. the dow jones industrials down north of 722 points.

we have also seen the peso tumble the most it ever has, the lowest it ever has versus the united states dollar. so that wall, i guess they gotta get cracking on it. and then there is the issue of where the money is going. gold and treasury securities -- kennedy: william devain was right! [laughter] neil: and i think this is just something that no one saw coming, but i think what people are appreciating is how wrong the consensus can be. but, again, i'd like to remind those who watch fox business, we were never consensus. we'll have more after this.

♪ ♪ neil: all righ welcome, everybody, i'm neil cavuto. continuing fox business coverage of this epic, historic election. i don't think this is an overstatement here. this is panning out in a way that is so different than what people expected and so historic in terms of the market fallout from this that it caught everyone off guard. the magnitude of this is just sinking in. certainly, at clinton headquarters right now where there are a lot of down faces and a lot of people leaving that facility at the javits center. they were waiting for a victory speech, now it might be more

like a concession speech. we're not at that point where anyone has gotten to 270, but that is the number of electoral votes you need to be elected president of the united states, but donald trump is getting tantalizingly close. here to talk about how close and what would have to, connell mcshane is here with more. >> reporter: maine and new hampshire out west, arizona and nevada, pennsylvania has not been called, michigan and minnesota are are also out there. so if you just start doing this in your head, we're at 254-209 for donald trump, so if he wins in arizona and a lot of people expect him to do that and does the same in alaska, that already gets him to 268. so a state like a nevada, for example, could put him over the top at 274. we haven't even gotten to his leads that he had in michigan, although a shrinking one. he's not expected to win minnesota or pennsylvania, there's that one in maine that

could go his way and so could new hampshire. if we look at the actual results as opposed to the what-if scenarios, these states we haven't called yet, michigan is still one that's favoring donald trump, 38.1-46 -- 48.3 to 46%. we said earlier wayne county, she's at 66%. she had been coming back there not to the point where president obama was in 2012 when he was at 73%, and that allowed him to win the state of michigan. so she's underperforming the president in many of these states. so back even in new hampshire, and we'll wait for this map to reset for us. i'm going to have to do it manually. the map's getting tired too because it didn't anticipate staying up this late. [laughter] come on, map. new hampshire is still a trump lead, 48.5 to 46.4. even in those what ifs, i didn't give new hampshire to donald trump, and it still is enough to

put him over the top if he goes and has some good result ares out on the west. arizona and nevada. to me, the only chance for secretary clinton right now would probably be to come back and win arizona. right? and then take those electoral votes -- neil: she had been polling well there, and then they kind of lost it and gave up on it. what's interesting about this, and it's like connell just showed you there, she has to run the table now. the irony is that hillary clinton has to run the table. kennedy: quickly, some of these battleground states we thought we were going to see split races. we thought we were going to see the presidency go to the republican or democrat and vice versa, we've seen wisconsin go to donald trump and also ron johnson who was in a close fight. neil: that's a stunning development. that senate race that kennedy referred to, it looks like at this point the republicans will hold onto the senate. it's already we've concluded they're going to hold onto the

house, and now they could have the white house. so donald trump would have put together a hat trick beyond anyone's guesstimation. shelby holliday joins us as well as james freeman, both from "the wall street journal." shelby, what do you make of this? >> well, neil, it's been really interesting to be in this room, because when north carolina was called, the crowd was excited. when florida was called, the crowd was ecstatic. when wisconsin was called, that's when they went nuts. that was a blue-leaning state. he knew he would have to try to flip it. if you look at exit polls, it's not really surprising. you know. 60% of voters say the economy is in bad shape. 70% are angry or dissatisfied with the way the government's actually working. so donald trump read this electorate extremely well, and he also read the map extremely well. and he has been saying from day one his support would come from the southeast and the midwest, states like iowa, ohio,

wisconsin. we'll see what happens in michigan and pennsylvania. so this crowd, i mean, the excitement is just building by the minute. you can probably hear them behind me, they're shouting usa, donald trump. they feel strongly now that donald trump might win this race. neil: yeah. well, it's a little different there than at the clinton house, that i can tell you. james freeman, let's say he were to take and hold onto these leads and win michigan and new hampshire. he's there. he's the next president of the united states. >> yeah. and the fact that he's coming in with a republican house and senate means they could get a lot done. i don't see gridlock at all, i don't see a government shutdown. yes, they will have differences -- neil: well, i think he's talking about getting up to that point, you know? i mean, even in the transition. but your point is well taken. >> well, look, here's what they agree on. the republicans in the congress and if it turns out to be president-elect trump, lower taxes, lower regulation and

supreme court justices who will uphold the rule of law, who believe in the constitution. these are all very bullish things for free markets and for growth. i think if that big selloff tomorrow happens, that these futures markets are telling us about, i think it could be a big buying opportunity. neil: you know, shelby, looking at this and what the trump people have to do, it would sink in in the next hour or so they're able to get over the top to 270, then we'd have to wait to see what the other side would say about whether it was a fair election. but leaving that aside, the pressure really mounts. you almost wonder how a president-elect trump in that event would deal with his own party, let alone the opposition party. >> right. that's what a lot of republicans have been saying. he hasn't been able to unite the republicans, how could he unite the country? if you look at some of his policies, they're very controversial within his own party. his stance on trade, for example. a lot of pro-business

republicans don't like where he stands on ripping up nafta, withdrawing from nafta, ripping up tpp. so he has a lot of work to do. four in ten voters, only four in ten say they would be ready to get behind and support donald trump if he's elected president. so he has a lot of work to do uniting the country. i've been asking a lot of voters if trump wins, what is the first thing you want him to do, and one supporter told me, be gracious. he needs to be gracious. the nation will wake up shocked tomorrow, and he plays a huge role in helping try to unite it and mend these divisions that we've seen over the last year. neil: shelby, james, thank you both very much. lou dobbs, be gracious. lou: i will be very gracious as i say to "the wall street journal," terrific reporting. their reporting, in fact, on hillary clinton has been exemplary. it has been extraordinary, all that they have done.

neil: one of the few in the media -- lou: yes, absolutely. fulfilling the role of the fourth estate and doing so beautifully. to the issue of donald trump and his job to unite the american people, i think he's done that tonight, at least half. he's begun the process if he, indeed, ends up president of the united states. neil: all right. lou: people are going to have to move now toward the people he represents. it will not be the dicta of the business elite that will determine public policy going forward. neil: all right. very good. real quickly, one democratic pickup in the senate, two in the house. that could be the best they do. and a pickup for republicans on pennsylvania avenue, that big white house. we could be minutes away from that, after this. ♪ ♪

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♪ ♪ >> this is fox business coverage of election 2016. here is neil cavuto. ♪ ♪ neil: all right. they have mocked him, they've joked about him, they said that he cursed his way to the republican nomination over much more qualified candidates, and they laughed at every single primary triumph and even discombobulated republican convention, and new it all donald trump was his own man. she had all the surrogates, she had the president of the united states, michelle obama, jay-z, beyonce, you name it, and it is now looking -- bruce springsteen, i forgot about that. lou dobbs, a big fan. james taylor might have been a bad call -- [laughter] kennedy: never seen a single electoral vote. neil: yeah, exactly. but with all of that, it is now

looking increasingly likely that within the next few minutes she will miss the brass ring and the push to be the first woman elected president of the united states. it ain't gonna happen. it will be donald trump. we are that close, and it is that big a deal, and it is not going down well at team clinton where you'll find peter barnes. peter. >> reporter: they're shellshocked over here, neil. some people have been crying, they've been, some have been consoling each other. the crowd has definitely thinned out. we've been seeing clinton supporters leaving just below us. this is the exit area behind our riser here. one of the exit areas. i saw a clinton supporter who i know, a prominent economist, has been advising the clinton campaign, and he left about 45 minutes ago and said i'm just going to go home and finish watching this on television. there's no point in staying right now. and then he said, in his view,

this is crazy. but they're still trying to figure out what's happened, what happened to their strategy, and we have yet to hear from the clinton campaign on when hillary clinton will show up over here to say neil: yeah. let them know, by the way, fbn will continue to provide live coverage. peter, thank you very much. we've got i think a little bit north of 80% of the vote in from pennsylvania, and that's one of the biggies that we've not been able to give to either candidate right now. but donald trump has narrowed that gap, looked like he was trailing by a lot but not anymore. so donald trump picks that up, well, that's a quick way to to get over the top here. but it was looking good for him in arizona, it was looking good for him in michigan. you know, the bottom line here is that he is cobbling together unexpected states.

trish: they were a little tricep days, to say that, they were a little nervous -- neil: how much was factored into the underreported vote? trish trb i think this wasn't factored at all. people feel a certain amount of peer pressure in this environment when the media, everyone in the media is piling on and saying this is a bad, bad guy, how are you going to be the one who says he's making some sense? they were reluctant, but i heard this from evangelicals who were willing to overlook some of the issues that had come up, i heard this from very working class americans and very, very successful americans. and so they're -- and i heard this from women x i heard it from men, and i heard it from minorities. so i actually saw and i think we all started to see here at fox

business these cross-currents of people that were supporting him, and that basically was in opposition to what you're hearing in the mainstream media. neil: this is our unique purview here, but we don't have to be einsteins to connect the significance of what you're looking at here, the dow jones industrials futures tumbling better than 800 points. this has been a part of a global rout, they're not greeting this very favorably, charles. again, why? charles: just the question marks on how the trade, how the system that is knitted together now, how it will be ripped apart and what the implications will be for that -- neil: but will it be as bad -- the way stockman was laying it out -- charles: listen, what stockman was talking about was really what germinated and became the tea party, right? it's just the idea that our grandchildren aren't going to have a future because we already have 20 trillion in debt.

both candidates promised a lot of spending. we're going to get $500 billion in infrastructure, we're going to have money sent to the inner cities, we're going to rebuild the military. so, you know, listen, it is a lot of money, and you've got to hope the supply side positives, you know, lower taxes, velocity of money creates a tax revenue to make up for it, but that's a long-term -- lou: i quibble with a word? you're talking about a man who is far more judicious, far more intelligent than being credited by the national liberal media, with whom you don't want to be associated, i'm sure. we're talking about a congress, a house of representatives, and if he is so fortunate, soon a president-elect who is smart as the dickens. he is accomplished. he is not a man who judges how his day went by his eloquence, he judges by what in the world he's accomplished, achieved. he's a map of action. neil: you really like him, don't you?

lou: i really like him, that's right. i really do. and you know what? more importantly? i respect him. and so do millions of americans. kennedy: okay. but where do we go now? if he has a united congress, what's first on the agenda? i mean, now we can look to the future -- [inaudible conversations] charles: i think you can check -- [inaudible conversations] charles: by the way, let me just finish what i was going to say though. for me personally, i'm licking my chops. i think this is an emotional overreaction, and if it's down 1,000, 1500, i'm licking my chops, because i know -- lou: what he's saying is crazy as hell, all right? [laughter] kennedy: it's not crazy as hell to say you can't cut taxes and not cut spending -- lou: no, that wasn't what he was said. he was talking about thousands of points being torn off the dow jones -- trish: well, the other thing he said was the elite were going to be effectively get in donald trump's way and not enable him -- [inaudible conversations]

lou: do you know, i can only imagine what the future holds. it is -- think about the future that if we stayed with this static status quo, 20 trillion in debt that is sure to mount to 30, that's not a function of donald trump -- neil: is there anything you don't like about trump? lou: i'm sorry? i'm not talking about trump, i'm talking about the status quo and what would have been achieved if we had not reached out, ostensibly -- kennedy: do you get to ride on the helicopter? lou: do i what? what i will get to do is sleep better at night not worrying about my children, my grandchildren and millions of others. this is a once in a lifetime opportunity we had, and my view is if he were not to be the president-elect, this country would be in severe, mortal danger. neil: they're not there yet. by the way, if i'm your children, i'm not worried about my financial future, i'm just saying.

[laughter] [inaudible conversations] kennedy: charles in charge. lou: is it going to be all right? we'll see, we'll see. one of the things that's interesting in this whole battle here is just how this has been sorting out for the markets which, of course, you had seen. and now in the final throes of this, how donald trump might be able to close the deal on this. pennsylvania has turned where he is in the lead. connell mcshane might be able to help us just very quickly before i get a balance of power look with liz claman. to you, about pennsylvania -- >> reporter: yep. just took lead in pennsylvania. boy, that is something else. and what's interesting about this state is that most of the votes, just reading some of the results as they came in, have been counted in here. this is all hillary clinton's territory in philadelphia and surrounding suburbs where the votes that are coming in are the rest of the state, the red areas. so as that has started to happen, the trump numbers have gone up, the clinton numbers

have pretty much stayed where they are, and now donald trump has taken the lead in pennsylvania and then, you know, we don't need to be a genius to say that she needed to win pennsylvania x if it goes to donald trump, then it is definitely all over. there you go.

at the moment with translating the democrats now need to pick up five seats to claim any kind of senate majority. so far, one. they have only pick up one in illinois and guesswork we know wisconsin will not read the second one. it was a toss-up state. here's what happened ron johnson you see russ feingold 45.3% of the vote and his democratic challenger. this was an old-school political rematch. feingold held the state for 18 years until he was ousted by ron johnson in 2010. if feingold have been able to grab the seat back from johnson he would have been the first defeated senator to win a rematch in 80 years. johnson was buoyed by the support of trump voters and educated milwaukee suburbanites performed the republican establishment.

at this hour he is celebrating. we have pennsylvania, we have a nailbiter of her race in pennsylvania where republican pat toomey is embroiled in a pretty razor tight race with democrat katie mcginty. he has the slight leads 48.2% of the moment and katie mcginty with 47.9%. he's a conservative who has it been in the race in his life against mcginty. she's a first-time candidate former went to an advisor so money started piling into this race. it's the most expensive senate race in history at this hour. too close to call. we will wait and see who comes out on top. finally the small states that loomed large in the race for senate control likely to go down to the wire. new hampshire the race between kelly ayotte and democratic governor maggie hassan kelly iata 48 .5% over maggie hassan. those are well-known and well-liked in the granite state. we are watching this one extraordinarily close. it looks like for now the

republicans are holding the senate. neil: kelly ayotte had disavowed donald trump after the release of that tape some weeks back and though she was juggling that interparty and everything else she goes on to serve another term. it's just a remarkable turn of events. >> one quick thing that too big former senator zevon by f. indiana and russ feingold of missouri have been blocked turning it into an historic election and you have quite the history books being written right now. still waiting on those epic battles. >> i thought a out was really going to have a struggle. she was walking this line where she was for trump she wasn't for trump and then she was for trump and wasn't for trump she disavowed him and anthony saw him climbing back in the polls after the news of the second fbi investigation and she is having

a challenging time. >> amazing. by the way as we are speaking the finance ministry and the doj among others to hold a meeting on wednesday to discuss the market developments. i don't know what's happening. as you can see a market report. lou: the canadian immigration site, the canadian immigration site has crashed because people are panicking. >> miley cyrus whoopi goldberg and cher are all leaving. what are we going to do? >> a police escort. >> we would appreciate just the drama of this, it is donald trump and the estimate with

obama. yes a transition to that little car ride. to be a fly. lou: there are some delicious thoughts. it is incredible folks. you are living through history and watching it on fox business network that i'm assured the business channels have you covered. there is one that makes eggs, i digress. much more after this. 50 minutes after the hour history being made and a man who a lot of people had given up on and thought he was a joke when he first entered the race, and my friend lou dobbs was not among them, the guys on the verge of becoming the next president of the united states, very close to 270. car, truck, suv.

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with slow internet from the phone company, you can't keep up. you're stuck, watching spinning wheels and progress bars until someone else scoops your story. switch to comcast business. with high-speed internet up to 10 gigabits per second. you wouldn't pick a slow race car. then why settle for slow internet? comcast business. built for speed. built for business. neil: this is the louisiana situation here and it's going to go to a runoff. you have 50% and might have a shot at this but right now the republicans were divided in this so it just means they are the top two candidates. whoever gets 50% after that but it's not a done deal in other words.

i do need to know in this particular race who would have the edge in that race but even if this were to be a loss for republicans it would be not to seats lost but not enough to give democrats control of the senate. again anything could happen in other developments could happen. lauren simonetti following social media reaction with this changing election. >> let me take inside the trump campaign you can see a little bit of a celebration going on. chris christie shaking hands and eric trump and his wife high-fiving also celebrating their wedding anniversary today or i should say yesterday because it's now the ninth of november. this race is going in trump's favor. kellyanne conway his campaign manager tweeted stop saying all pollsters -- he is after all polster and she has been saying all along donald trump will win where most polls had hillary ahead. a little bit of a mea culpa from

cnbc's john harwood. this is what he tweeted. donald trump and his team are right about a lot more things than i realized. neil: already. >> that's it. that's all you've got? all right? lou: do you suppose podesta told them to say that? neil: i don't know, sometimes it's best not to speak. we'll take a quick look at where we stand. we are waiting on a couple of states out there. >> 48.2 and 48.2 literally tied with 2.6 million votes each so we will look at data continued to keep an eye on michigan and see if donald trump can hold onto his lead. either one would put it away but although that has gotten closer in michigan and arizona is the other want to keep an eye on. the last time we spoke hillary clinton probably needs to win their to have a chance.

just a quick scenario now that we have quirks in our map fix for you if trump does when in arizona he gets to 265 right on the precipice of 270 with a number of different ways to get it whether it's the upset in pennsylvania or maybe taking michigan but it would be as simple as winning four in new hampshire for he has been waiting for 272. to go back and in new hampshire right now in real time the trump lead us down to 47.9247 so we are not quite there yet. some states are getting closer but the paths are there for donald trump. neil: i feel one of these folks gets to 270, it would be surprising to see donald trump in the position he's in now. he has more paths to it two to 270 than hillary clinton. i just cannot fathom it. >> you think about how the media has portrayed this. they had a cover of new york magazine that said loser right across the front of it.

neil: just obnoxious and demeaning. all these publications. the majority of the headlines. kennedy: that's all they are doing at this point i'm wondering if pennsylvania and michigan are too close to call are we going to have a winner tonight and will we know if the next president within the next 40 minutes? >> arizona nebraska and new hampshire. nuno this is pennsylvania now and it says even stephen s. can be. do we know right now whether 92% of vote is in there? don't states have automatic recall? >> i have to look up the stay long pennsylvania to see where it is. i was just looking at the counties in pennsylvania and the philadelphia area was supposed

to go blue and they did but all the other areas. i was there for three or four days and i'll chop made a real effort and you know congressman lewis barletta. i cy the trump rally in hershey in friday night in his telling me the northeastern part of the state he thought trump would do better than people expected and it looks like that's exactly what is done compared to barack obama's numbers four years ago to make it a very close race. neil: hillary clinton has picked up nevada. how does that change things hear? >> yes, 15 with a plus six is where we have for now because nevada -- neil: nevada was included. amazing, amazing, amazing. given the fact that it's so close with 99 .9% of the vote in. anthony scaramucci joins us now.

a big financial backer of donald trump but anthony we love the "wall street week" show. he was on when he hooked up with donald trump. i'm kidding. what now now? what do you think of this? this was not the way was supposed to roll out. >> let me just say this. i'm a royal republican so i stayed with the party and stayed loyal to mr. trump even when it didn't look so great for him. a very big shout out to lou dobbs sitting next to you who after the last debate with chris wallace turned to me and said he has won this thing so an early call by lou. i talked to mr. trump at 12:47 12:47 and i want to sound overconfident because i'm superstitious but it looks very good for us. i think the number one message coming from mr. trump tonight will be about unity, calming the markets and letting people know

he has a very competent team around him that's going to start working for the american people on january 20. neil: how does he do that? obviously the markets are thank you right now they don't know what they are dealing with. foreign markets as well. if you are devising him about how he presents himself should he be elected president how would you tell him to reach out to the markets, don't bother, what? >> i think the number one thing he's got to suggest to the markets is continuity and stability and a focus on growth. i think this will be very similar to brexit where you are going to see a selloff right now because of the surprise and the stabilization and then a recognition that we are about to embark upon tremendous progrowth policies for the united states that will actually lift the rest of the world out of the spectra of the inflation that we have experienced.

that positive message will start to make itself into the markets over the next several months just like it did in the united kingdom meal. neil: years ago i was laughed at and we discussed this before we didn't have money for a ground game. he did things that were counterintuitive spending the amount of time he did and democratic states michigan included and get everything you did turned out to be prescient and right. now what? if he seals the deal tonight, you talk about building and reminding folks of the team that would assure folks he is up to this task. play that out. >> well, first off he has his pulse on the american people and the angst that is out there, the middle class and the working class so i think he will be messaging them tonight as well. i do think once you start to see

his team and we were working on at the trump tower this afternoon meeting with a number that people on the transition team once you start to see them roll out his chief of staff, the members of the economic team that will join him in washington. neil: will that be including chris christie even with the fallout from bridgegate? anthony: i don't want to comment on that because i'm not posting up to it but let me say mr. trump is going to be very focused on sending people a message that he's going down there to drain the swamp. my guess is the people he is bringing down there with him are going to be very good plumbers and that operation. there's a lot of swamp draining to do. the american people are fed up with the current status quo among the elites. i think that's another big message that's going to resonate in a positive way for the people of the united states. neil: thank you anthony as always. good stuff.

anthony macneill, are you a little surprised? neil: i'm really not actually. anthony: you have had good instincts the whole way. neil: it's going to be interesting what he does tomorrow and lou dobbs what do you think if he winds this a lot depends on what time it is. what would you do? lou: my guess is tomorrow he will be exactly what he has been. he will respond accordingly. he will be mike guess is he will be gracious and commanding in reassuring to the american people as he should be. neil: he stayed focused two weeks longer than most people thought. lou: he is a man who i think it's fair to say can do pretty much whatever he is wanted and i've never seen a candidate come any candidate or any office given so much for advice by people about how to act and how to speak. he is really remarkable.

kennedy: it's downright sexist. lou: i don't understand. kennedy: people say he's a old man and he can't think for himself. kennedy: we has not sewn this up yet, he is ahead in arizona, he could take alaska but new hampshire could flip to her. she has a slightest advantage. pep pe pennsylvania way too cloe to call, and close, in michigan, he is running out of dress options to get to 2 70s. it is not looking -- -- >> it is not over. >> she has to win arizona. neil: if -- lou: where are we in arizona? >> he has --

lou: what% i percent is that. >> 63. >> then have to do something with. >> we to go to what if. if he wins there. alaska would get him 268. one congressional vote in maine he could get. but, yeah. still pennsylvania, michigan, and minnesota. >> all of those states. could flip to her. kennedy: if we wins arizona and alaska and loses rest of northeast. >> so, he wins. kennedy: pennsylvania, michigan and minnesota.

>> that is right i'm going to house of representative. >> i am thinking we need sleep. in nevada. congressman heck was not able to do it, that stays democratic, also i believe it looks like a net pick up for democrats. so, that maintains republican control that was one that they thought they could flip. >> i have to say hi to my son. he is watching on-line, hi challenges. neil: where is he. >> in london. >> europeans are watching in dismay. trish: you would think they know

better. >> misery loves company ni. neil: we're down 700, what are you worried about. >> a strong come back. ♪ we asked people to write down the things they love to do most on these balloons. travel with my daughter. roller derby. ♪ now give up half of 'em. do i have to? this is a tough financial choice we could face when we retire. but, if we start saving even just 1% more of our annual income... we could keep doing all the things we love. prudential. bring your challenges.

neil: it is rare a u.s. election sends market worldwide to a tailspin, that is how unknown donald trump is on global stage, with no sense of what he would do as president. they never thought they had to worry about it there was no way in hell, that he would ever make it, according to the "financial times," that could be changing

quickly. prospect that measure abily improved, hillary clinton tumbles. you could see, peso to all-time lows versus the dollar, foreign market, asian markets selling off. kennedy said we're not done. no one has gotten to to tw to 2e states that remain in player very tight, because they are virtually even, like pennsylvania, you know, they are within less than a half percent that would automatically qualify for what they call an automatic recount. it would not be settled not prompt ironically, hillary clinton's to concede tonight. in any events. because, well, it not over. >> so does unlikely hood that we'll get a concession speech from other one.

those margins are so thin. much more so thanking and we could have anticipated into this late night. and you know, i don't think we'll see a resolution. we learned from "new york post" that hillary clinton had a huge fireworks display, permitted as early as 9:30, just an hour after polls close in new york, she has had to put those bottle rockets on ice, after director comey's admission they were going forward with the investigation. een have when they said nothing new to see. neil: do you think that changed this. i was adjoining that comey was october surprise and november surprise. i have always argued that donald trump was gaining traction pounding a lot of ski points including the affordable care act, which is not so affordable that was gaining praks before

the e-mail stuff. kennedy: that is what matters, if you have to choose between paying a phone bill and having health insurance. neil: they will blame it on comey. kennedy: that is bad math and bad timing, they already try to do that, that memo friday an fre mine feinstein, but you have to take responsible for your campaign and your candidate's short comings, they have been unwilling to do that. neil: we're waiting on michigan, pennsylvania. minnesota as well. if hillary clinton cannot win michigan, in the end he picks up that state. well, that would essentially do it. but, he has other paths, pennsylvania might do it for him. we're looking at this. there are a variety of

possibilities for him, not so much her. trish: amazing going into it, people thought that several hours ago we were saying it was challenging for him, he faced a greaterring whic challenge thatw wrong the polling data was. i tell you. neil: where did they miss it. trish: people were afraid to say, yeah, i want this change. it was just -- >> did they miss it with women or minorities or -- we don't know the break down of the vote, we have a good idea. but none was monolithic or far antid. trish: minorities an area for example they needed a better turn out. they don't have that for her. lou: you are talking about a 30% under performance in terms of minority groups in various states, you talk about in case of florida. over performance.

which is pretty much when they anticipated. yet, the silence majority factor is not really truly the shy trump voter. >> who was it. trish: i think democrats, lou. lou: do you rely we have not talked much about independents, it was not measured much as independent voters, in the run-up to this. they sort of cast them off to an area of undecided, independent -- kennedy: because he has been leading among independents for some time now. neil: it pair a little bit. to give pat credit, he said i'm not buying these polls. pat, it is good to have you, you can smile or whatever you want

to do, it's up to you. >> nice to finaly belonging somewhere. neil: did they get you a microphone. >> i don't know if they did or not. neil: we'll mic you up. that is not your fault. >> no, no. neil: to be fair. he did say, we'll mic him up, when everyone is going one way, telling you it has to be this way. step back. trish: you have to have that skepticism, pat did, a few did, i think that. lou did, and all of us, right here at fox business did. i think we always gave him a fair shot. neil: pat,. neil.lou: wrote a terrific artin alienation, he identified what was going on. in our society. in the electioin the e. neil: he said it was similar to

what he -- jimmy carter in 1980, but is he ready? kennedy: did he look jimmy carter in the eye. neil: he never did. in is how powerful pat was. he was 12 years old, he never looked jimmy carter in the eye, soon after carter got in there, a famous picture, look at this. jimmy carter thanking him. lou: you got it up so quickly. neil: not even looking at him, you could not find a single picture of pat looking jimmy carter in the eye. a tragic precursor to what is going on, pat i'm going to let you answer that. >>o no i'm not. neil: we're going on a break. look at him, now give me attitude.

>> i've been trying forever to talk about this election. neil: we'll take a quick break and get back to pat, who is in a wonderful mood. >> we'll capitalize on that one. my business was built with passion... but i keep it growing by making every dollar count. that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one. with it, i earn unlimited 2% cash back on all of my purchasing. and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business... which adds fuel to my bottom line. what's in your wallet?

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we're opening more xfinity stores closer to you. visit us today and learn how to get the most out of all your services, like xfinity x1. we'll put the power in your hands, so you can see how x1 is changing the way you experience tv with features like voice remote, making it easier and more fun than ever. there's more in store than you imagine. visit an xfinity store today and see for yourself. xfinity, the future of awesome. lou: back to pat, i'm sorry we

ran out of time, i do appreciate you coming by. i'm kidding, what do you make of this? you were not buying polls, why? >> i was looking at other questions, i even raised point at end of our meeting today, at 5:30, with exit polls with the decision team, i said i think these are wrong. trump had been moving, a couple things worth pointing out, about why this happened. i wrote a piece yesterday for fox.com about the real surprise november surprise. and uprising of american people. i tried to layout level of alienation in the country. donald trump did not create the move. , it created him, that movement, is powerful. group that i kept saying.

people who were unfavorable po both candidates, yet they were lining up on issues, pretty much wanting change, mov change, movm obama policies, which they wanted tonight, they had bad feelings about both candidates, over weekend those people were voters in motion. tonight, according to exit poll, they keep reweighting it, it was trump won those people by 20 points. that was 18% of the electorate that can enough to explain in part his victory, you can see in places like. >> in a county in pennsylvania away county that obama won, trump has slaughtered his way,

slaughtered hillary clinton in there andly high valley, he is speaking to those voters who were very frustrated just as he did in ohio, and why the race is close in michigan, i believe -- i think that hillary will win the popular vote. but, trump will have pulled off. neil: really, why. >> so much of california, it takes california a month to count their vote. or a month and a half. >> she might win popular vote but he -- look right now, we could see you know. it is a lot of votes, we could end up worse thing i think could happen to trump, is outcome it might end up 269-269, throwing it to house that would require his losing everything but

winning alaska, arizona, which i think he does win. and the seat in maine he. neil: 269, a possibility of a president from one party and vice president from another. we're not there. >> we're not there. neil: what will drive it, what drove this whole thing. >> the discontent in the country, legitimate decent. and discontent. donald trump had so many things against him. that is why all of the pundits who said tonight, and yesterday, said she got it, she won, they did not contend with the fact you have a country that believes it is losing, it is in decline, believe their children's future is in danger, tha -- if that, we

decisive, trump would have won by 15 points. but, he, economy even with his personal problem, enough voters. felt that they needed change, they wanted an antiestablishment figure, that is the reason his appeal to those voters. and i think that story, in the exit polls, we can see, not such a shocker. to me, i thought he was in every one of close states. i looked at kinds of questions, they all showed that disposition that people were ready to move. neil: interesting, lou, when you think about it they accepted a lot. donald trump, controversy, language, alienating these groups supposedly because they

were that ticked off. lou: they were that ticked off there a great argument in this for a longer campaign season, as much as i hate to say, that they got to know them more, certainly donald trump. she ran from th the from the el. she hid out, she was only. i think at end, there was a great value in that. because, he didn't -- he didn't turn out to be running for the cameras, he was not a reflecttion in eyes of the of t- electorate. kennedy: contrast to that, it did seem like she was manufactured. if you talk to hillary clinton

supporters -- >> pennsylvania folks, they are separated by a half of a percentage point. this is 20 electorate vote state, that is a biggy. trish: other thing is a perception of corruption, and a sense she was playing by a different set of rules, i did a lot of reporting on latin americanic expe economy and pols there is a part of the clintons that kind of reminds you of it you think about brazil, they had to clean house with their politicians. does not seem like something that u.s. would have, for example someone running for president that is being investigated by the fbi. fbi. charles. argentina as well, i say, so

interesting that hillary clinton had the same hub rouse that establishment republican had in primary, they went with old school playbook to your point and your point, after watching 17 of these guys drop. drop like flies because they went old school. trish: they wanted donald trump. >> she took the same old school playbook and thought it would work for her. trish: she and her campaign felt she was weakest of candidate of the bunch, and he would be easiest to beat. kennedy: they were salivating at the thought that he would be easiest to beat. neil: back in 1980, carter folks were salivates for ronald reagan. i mean, they thought, there has to be reagan. and look at what happened. lou: we're still aways from a a conclusion. at least the republicans had

good judgment to be competitive, and shed the old. that is jeb bush all he represented. whereas democrats embraced. they did the john mccain senator dole. kennedy: party fell in lock steck behind her out of fear. neil: all they knew, connel? >> one thing in pennsylvania. follow-up on what pat caddel is saying. back to 2012. northeastern part of the state, what president obama did. where look at that same county now.

it is 58-35 to trump that is what happens. so, working class area that has been, old school traditional union democrat now gone to trump, it went to trump by huge margin. flipping a traditionally democratic county. trish: problem with hillary clinton, she is perception of let them eat cake candidate. we'll throw a few freebies their way, and they will go away and 1% will continue to benefit from globalization. neil: bashing of rich, and rich are evil. do you think we could get past that nonsense. kennedy: one thing he has done so well, point out the success he has become, i said that mitt romney needed a little donald trump. lou: mitt romney need a lot. neil: he should have created i

am a wealthy guy, creating jobs. kennedy: i'm going to amass hundreds of millions of dollar and global power and rail against -- super pac helped fill by billion dollar presidential coffer. charles: i saw some why that young vote went to third party candidates, the young voters. i have a niece, she goes to school in pennsylvania, she loved bernie sanders so much. and you know, they really just, there is no way she could be the alternative, not necessarily to bernie sanders selling out. in some people's eyes but to what he represented. lou: there is no way that bernie sanders supporters, being betrayed. and his nice lake house he spends his free time, then has

tell -- to stand up in front of crowds former supporters he soldout and urged them to vote for hillary clinton, he is a walking metaphor about what is so corrupt about democratic party. kennedy: she goes on this, leaked tape, private hillary clinton, his supporters are basement dwellers, he said, she is right, he is soen t tone deae can still fight for something, but it looks like he sold out. neil: circuit breakers in place tomorrow. where you get to 7% they will halt trading. almost a 4 percent fallout. we'll get particulars they are preparing for worse tomorrow. markets are selling first, asking questions later, they arn

avalanche of sell orders tomorrow. to limit carnage. sometimes best to lit it rip as they say. charles: it is better that market gets there today. let it get crushed, hammered. neil: let me run. we have a lot more coming up. to see which one of these states could fall into place, if could be pennsylvania or michigan or a combination of smaller states, but donald trump has the way to that now. in a number of ways that hillary clinton does not. wow. we have a lot more coming up. this is going to go, i think a while. kennedy: it's going. neil: a while.

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invest with confidence. neil: well every little electoral vote counts, alaska the last of the bunch to report. we are waiting to hear from that state. you know. donald trump is closer to 270 he will need, there are a number of ways he could get it. as we wait for pennsylvania and michigan. you have almost every key precinct reporting but there is no way to pull the trigger on this yet. david and melissa joining us. markets have been only thing they were worse. but they are off lowest level, but prepping for circuit