the markets keep moving. liz: probably one rate hike in decent and then done. ashley: that's it. janet yellen tonight, or this afternoon. maria is churning away across puerto rico. continuing to follow her. now pass it over to neil cavuto. takes the baton and runs. neil: thank you, ashley. strongest puerto rico landfall we've seen in 85 years. a million without power in the u.s. commonwealth. 11,000 people huddled in shelters. if you're trying to fly into and out of the region, good luck. 300 flights canceled today. more likely to follow. weather bell meteorologist joe bastardi where the storm is headed. where do you think, joe negative? >>er they were out of power. a lot of people from irma, i have friends in puerto rico. they hadn't gotten power back from when irma hit this is double dose of disaster for the

island. as you mentioned, neil, this is the worst one they have ever seen here. the future path it will take it a little bit to the east of turks and caicos islands that said, those islands in the bahamian chain got absolutely devastated by irma. i don't think it's a direct hit there. after that this is about a strange of a dance as you ever see in the western atlantic ocean. see it all the time in the pacific. it is called the fuji effect, jamessed after a japanese meteorologist in the early 20s, that typhoons would dance around each other when they got close to each other. we have the dying jose off the eastern seaboard of the united states. that tries to pull maria northward up offshore well to the east of florida. however, when jose dies completely, a ridge of high pressure may build back across the top. it is not out of the realm of possibility this comes back towards the united states,

specifically towards the carolinas in six or seven days. that is the worry right now. but we can assure people in florida we don't believe this storm is going back toward them. they don't have to worry about irma. in couple weeks, looking at this pattern we may see something out of the western caribbean. that is not even in the charts. just something i'm looking at in the overall pattern. neil: this storm itself, maria, after puerto rico it veers right is that what you're saying? >> it moves north in latitude. irma came in the southeast bahamas and generally went due west. this comes in the southeast bahamas moves more to the north than to the west, where it is 400 miles southeast of cape hatteras, maybe next tuesday and wednesday. when it gets there, it may in turn be blocked and turned back toward the east coast of the united states.

so this is a long haul. what you have, neil, here, because of what jose is doing, and, if i had a map i could show it to you, it is creating a weakness in that big high pressure that is dominating the weather across the eastern part of north america, it is creating a weakness for maria to move toward move through. if jose was not there, no jose, all the high pressure sitting across, chances are this would do what hugo did, make a beeline for the southeast coast. fortunately for right now jose is in the way. jose doing that, may save the u.s. a direct impact from maria. neil: wow. thank you, my friend. for all your help through the multiple storms and hurricanes. meantime fema facing its third major disaster relief effort. we're not done with the season as joe just pointed out. the cost of this, handling of this with former fema director michael brown. michael, good to have you back. these are beginning to pile up

right now. i know it is technical that people feel fema it lacks funds and lacks the ability to deal with this they essentially use emergency funding, right? >> yeah, they're going to have to use emergency funding and this gets back to my whole point about the politicization of the disaster relief fund. when you have a busy, natural or man-made disaster season. the disaster relief fund gets depleted rapidly. the congress has debate raising the debt ceiling and tie in funding not to do it. at some point congress needs to realize, what every business does, create a reserve fund so they don't have the arguments and last minute resolutions to give fema the money that it needs to do things. now having said that, fema is still going to keep doing what it needs to be doing because it can draw on the other departments and agencies to get assets they need to do their job

but that is just kind of, that is just kind of a sorry way to do business in my opinion. neil: what i don't understand, obviously we have a series of storms, even though largely dormant hurricane season one year after another, you have to go back a dozen years. now there is a call, whether climate change or the like, i'm not casting aspersions, pro or con that way, we have to beef up fema resources, our federal response efforts what will likely be very common storm seasons like the one we're seeing. what do you think of that? >> i think so. i know hurricanes and big floods get a lot of media attention but even when that doesn't happen, back during this kind of lull between the 2004 and 2005 hurricane season which was just as busy as this, and then you get to this year, in those intervening years, there were still natural disasters occurring all the time. there were wildfires. there were floods. there were tornadoes that wiped out small towns.

so these things go on all of the time. what we need to do is figure out a way -- look, for example, without giving away top secret information, we have things like the national pharmaceutical stockpile where we keep a stash of pharmaceuticals to use in cases of emergencies. i think what we ought to do in the case of fema is to allow them -- now they have, they have certain programs that are kind of, i don't want to use the term black ops but there are not public kind of programs, we need to take those programs that have caches of materials, and we need to expand that. let me use puerto rico as an example. think of the logistical nightmare now of trying to get additional resources into puerto rico and the usvi? only way to do that is by ships, so you have to repair the harbors, or by plane or helicopter, which is very inefficient, helicopters but by plane. now you have to make certain that the airports are repaired.

so this is going to be a logistical nightmare for fema to overcome. if we had caches of supplies in secure locations in places like the the usvi, puerto rico, florida, california, texas, spread out throughout the midwest we wouldn't have to worry about logistics quite as much. neil: last dumb question, you endured many from me over the years, when if comes to puerto rico or the u.s. virgin islands, whatever, are they equated on same level with u.s. states? in other words, are they deserving of the same help, the same financial backup from fema and other federal sources as recognized u.s. state? >> they are. they absolutely are. just like guam. guam is in the same situation. think of logistical nightmare of getting supplies and emergency equipment. we have a military base there. so that is a good place to do the kind of caching that i'm talking about. but if we didn't do that,

imagine guam getting wiped out by a typhoon. and now trying to get all the material from hawaii or california to guam? i'm just saying, in government we don't tend to think long term strategically. i think this is a good example of why we should do that. neil: think you're right. by the way everything you outlined and feared a dozen years ago, when everyone was piling on you, proved prescient and exactly right. >> i appreciate that, neil. you have to rub that into people, i keep telling you that. michael brown, fema director. a lot of stuff he foresaw a lot of problems not only with katrina but with ones that come since, proven eerily accurate this is eerily real. images we're getting out of mexico right now. 7.1-magnitude earthquake completely walloped central mexico. connell mcshane has the latest. it looks beyond surreal.

reporter: it is. as we knew and watched hear the reports that the death toll would be fluctuating. it has been, 2 it 5 dead is the late -- 225 dead latest number from the mexican government officials. emergency responders are on the scene. search continues. people coming in with their bare hand. they brought dogs in for trained for this kind of thing. they're trying to see any sign of life. boy, look at that. this is magnitude 7.1 quake. the epicenter 70 miles southeast of mexico city. the stories of destruction coming in are really something else. the worst of those stories has to be a school in mexico city that collapsed. the quake hit about 1:00 in the afternoon. the school day was in session. there have been 25 bodies recovered we're told from the site, from the school. all but four of the 25 children. there have been stories of

parents getting whatsapp messages from children trapped in the rubble. almost a day later, they don't want to give up hope. it is beyond eerie. this disaster occurred. revisiting tax cuts. connection between the obamacare

repeal and tax cut effort. i'm going to explain right after this.

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that's how you outmaneuver. neil: all right. you know, killing off obamacare is not something that republicans give up on here. it is like multiple attempts to do just that. they're at it again. 11 legislative days to do it. they think this time they just might have the right measure. tell that to 10 governors, five democrats, five republicans who are not keen on it.

blake burman is all over it. what have you got, blake? reporter: neil, this is the graham-cassidy bill, for all intents and purposes the final hail mary for republicans on health care. the same very narrow margin, that they only can have three republicans defect to get it over the finish line. already there is one very loud no in this debate from the republican side, from rand paul, calls it a trillion dollar plus spending program and obamacare light. that caught the attention of president trump earlier this morning who tweeted out following after the senator was on the airwaves with his gripe saying and i quote here, rand paul is a friend of mine but he is such a negative force when it comes to fixing health care. graham-cassidy bill is great. ends obamacare, says president trump. three republicans who voted against the final attempt earlier this summer to repeal and replace health care, obamacare, rather are still the ones to watch. that remains john mccain, lisa murkowski and susan collins of

maine, who earlier today did not give any reassurances she might flip to the yes column as she said she wants to see the cbo score. >> i'm disappointed to hear however, that it is going to be only a partial analysis that will not include the impact on coverage and that is disturbing to me. reporter: as of this morning, bill cassidy, whose name is on the graham-cassidy bill would only say he feels they are close to getting to that magic number of 50. >> i feel like we're pretty close. but we have to get closer. we'll know that by early next week. reporter: got to get closer. need to know something next week. as you know, neil, the issue for republicans if they want to go for the simple majority they have to get this done by next week. if we learned anything from earlier this summer with trying to reform the health care system at least by republican standards, close is nowhere near anything close to finished.

neil? neil: absolutely. of the thank you very, very, much, blake burman. are republicans risking another defeat by rushing a health care vote where there are tensions what could be ahead more tense tax negotiations. we have katy glick. former advisor to president george w. bush, ned ryun. katy, i can understand why republicans are eager to move on this again, something that could be a source of revenue and baseline would help in tax cuts i think, but normally, when you keep going back to the same well, hoping to find water you can be disappointed. what makes you think this one is closer? >> no doubt there is a lot of disappointments for republicans who have wanted for quite a while it see some legislative successes as it relates to repealing and replacing obamacare. you know, certainly we're still waiting to see where that final

vote might even potentially be before there is any sort of vote is brought up on the senate floor. neil: do you think it gets to that point? >> certainly as was just noted, there is a couple senators watched very closely. they were the ones who ended upending the process last time. what is very clear a lot of these republican senators have faced enormous pushback from the conservative base as they have been back home for august recess. you know there is a lot of people out there saying this is something you've been promising for seven years. you guys control the senate, house, presidency, you need to deliver. a lot of people are feeling heat back home. that is factoring into some people's thinking here. neil: i know conservatives provide heat to her point, ned, but they get heat from middle and moderates, because of their obstinance, their characterization they get in the way of any constructive deal. we're seeing seeds of that in this tax debate where mark meadows and host of others are saying, no, no, i don't like the

way, we don't like the way this is going. >> this kind of goes to my point, neil, i here the terms, sweeping and comprehensive on tax reform, i want to respond the kiss principle, keep it simple stupid. you look at poll on tax reform, there was a poll showed 70% of all voters thought it was high priority and 63% of democrats and over 85% of republicans. if you were to say issue had significant support among the american voters it is tax reform. again, i would hope would keep it simple. i want four things and i think most conservative was be happy for four things, aim for corporate tax at 15, but settle for 20. get small business cuts. looks like the conversations center 30% tax cut for small businesses. aim tax cuts at middle class. looks like right now they will double deduction, first 24,000 for married couple is tax-free. aim at repatriation of money. neil: in all the examples, you

don't assume anything on this health care front? that is not in your equation. that would be great if they got something but unlikely, right? >> that they will get health care or get through tax reform? neil: that they get through health care? if they get through health care the one benefit, it greases the skids for a little more flexibility on the tax cut thing? >> well i do think they're going to get a vote as katy mentioned earlier, they have the september 30th deadline there is a lot of pressure. people have been saying you promised this 7 1/2 years. time to step up to the plate. i'm not crazy about the graham cassidy bill, at same time there is enough merit it is step in the right direction. a certain amount of urgency, a roll of democrats on single-payer, 70% of democrats now support a single-payer approach to health care. republicans should understand they have to start dismantling obamacare or things could actually get worse. neil: katy, where does this all

go? republicans need to recognize with something, they can't let this year fritter away out action on the tax cut thing. i will leave aside the health care effort. if they don't get something done, on, for example, the tax cut stuff this year. they're in a heap of trouble, right? >> absolutely. i have spoken with a lot of republican strategists, a lot of republican donors who say there will be enormous consequences in the midterms if republicans can not get something done, something they hope fairly comprehensive done on tax reform. there is already as we were just discussing quite a bit of frustration over way the obamacare repeal and replace efforts have gone so far. there is actually a little bit more consensus how to move forward on tax reform. given how content us health care has been. there is a feeling so far we haven't seen, republican congress make good on the promise to repeal and replace obama care. they have to get something else done, tax cuts and tax reform looks like a little bit more accessible perhaps. we've seen a lot of outside

groups mobilizing around this issue. there is feeling that this congress really needs to deliver on that, or there will be a even bigger problem when it comes to motivating that conservative base to turn out in midterms. neil: all right. we've watch closely guys. i want to thank you both. sad news to pass on to you. boxer jake lamotta, that robert de niro played him in the film, "raging bull." he died at 95. i think he fought boxer sugar ray robinson half a dozen times, beat him once. that shocked the world. robinson beat him to take the title. few boxers were colorful as he once famously said, i just come to beat them up. he was 95 years old. where to get in... where to get out. if only the signs were as obvious when you trade. fidelity's active trader pro can help you find

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♪ neil: all right. toys "r" us has struggled, now more like bankruptcy r us, weighing on entire sector sears, target, macy's jcpenney, nordstrom all under heat here what bedevils them, will bedevil pretty much rest of the industry save amazon for the time-being but as i like to caution here, don't assume that amazon is the be all, end all, there is a moment for everybody. the moment right now does seem to be for amazon and not so for all the other players. remember kmart was all that before walmart. walmart was all that before amazon. i hasten to add, live in the moment here. all right is the white house completely giving up on tax cuts for the rich? former reagan budget director, author of "trump," david stockman. or will they give them up for everyone, because you don't

think money is there, right? >> we should have a tax cut. it should be in payroll taxes for 160 million people, most of them out in flyover america who paying far more payroll taxes than income. this isn't 1981 anymore. we're not in kansas. the laffer curve has gone missing. what people don't know the income tax has morphed into a rich man's levy. last year, 800 billion of the 1.5 trillion collected came from 4%, let me tell you, 4% of the taxpayers. 6% of the 150 million taxpayers who filed with the irs paid 60% of the tax. the bottom 110 million taxpayers, 75%, paid less than 5% of their income in income tax. neil: close to half paid no income tax at all. >> close to half. so the point is, if you want to help flyover america with, which was trump elected by, forget the

income tax. the rich people had a ride like there is no tomorrow for 30 years. the fed has been inflating their financial assets like there is no tomorrow. neil: you wouldn't cut richest or cut anyone, deal with payroll, not income. >> that's right. neil: meantime there is a growing debate about whether the rich, as part of this tax package should be included. you would probably be relieved to hear it looks like they will, corporations an investments would benefit and the like. could be by income left out of this. >> i think it is all academic. there will not be a tax cut, there will not be a reform, there will not be a bill. there is no functioning republican majority. the democrats -- neil: you don't think they will get that far. >> here they are nine months later, still fiddling around trying to do something with obamacare. neil: what will make this fall apart? >> what will make this fall apart? there is no republican majority.

if they don't do it through reconciliation, it will never get out of the senate. you don't have 60 votes in the senate for anything. neil: they're attaching to a budget resolution. >> they can't pass a budget. neil: a lot of people hear this and want to get the connection. >> yeah. neil: this latest senate effort, just a senate budget committee effort among two prominent republicans called for $1.5 trillion tax revenues over the next decade. no way to address paying for that. now they seem to be paying you don't have to pay for it. you will get a lot of bang for the buck. what do you think? >> that is a headline story but what it ignores is on the senate floor, resolution, 10 years, that has 10 trillion built in as a baseline from current policy spending and tax before you get to that trillion 1/2. so the question is -- neil: 20 trillion in debt and decade bring it up to 30. >> 30. before you get to any tax cut, you're at 30 trillion

objectively built in, 130% of gdp. washington totally lost it. you have calamity don in the oval office. he has no clue that he is presiding over the greatest fiscal disaster in history. neil: it is not a shortage of revenue, is it? i was looking at a figure over the next 10 years the government looks to take in $43 trillion in revenue. >> yeah. neil: that is a lot of money. >> but looks to take in 53, to put out 53 trillion in spending. neil: understood. why can't either party even slow the growth? >> very simple. very simple. you have a president said social security i'm not going to touch it. medicare, we can't do anything. medicaid we were going to try. that is what obamacare -- they got nowhere. they got nowhere. they raised defense by 50 billion a year. it is up to 700 billion. wants money for walls. wants border control. wants law enforcement. wants more for veterans. david: those are his priorities but democrats have hair own

priority. >> both sides pull this stuff, right? >> sure. neil: when you can explain things about money coming in, extra money going out i think americans are very smart. if they her, this is not sustainable, but done in a way that doesn't patronize them but informs them, shows them direction where things are going very unlikely things are sustainable, you will have bellyaching obviously but you have a lot of other people saying he is right, you're right, this can't be sustained. so what is going to happen? >> well, i think we're going to reach a very rough spot in the road when the fed begins to contract its balance sheet. remember, it has been expanding for 30 years. neil: they have a lot of treasury notes and bonds, $4.5 trillion. they have to unload that. >> when you take that 4.5 trillion, you start to let it shrink, same thing as selling. so instead of the fed buying bond and making it easier to fund the debt, they're going to

be selling compounding the funding problem. neil: interest rates go up. interest rate goss up a lot? >> the deficit is going up. it will be over 700 billion -- neil: rates go up. slight uptick in the rates will leave the debt exponentially larger. >> of course rates will go up. if they to up 100 basis points, not much, that is $200 billion a year of additional interest. where are you getting that? neil: do people say, david in the end, we somehow managed to thrive with this debt getting bigger, bigger, bigger. someone is always buying it. >> the answer is we should had the day of reckoning in 1987. we didn't because greenspan got there, central banks in the world start buying debt hand over fist. neil: after the stock market crash? >> of at crash. they have a balance sheet of 20 trillion when it was less than one trillion then. if they hadn't bought

20 trillion of government debt, english, german, canadian and the rest, interest rates would be far higher. private investment would be crowded out. we would have had a crisis long ago and would have been forced to honestly face our fiscal choices. but essentially for the last 30 years it has been free lunch politics. neil: you know you can't grow your way out of this whole thing. you grow your way out of some of it. if you get 2 to 3% growth, that is extra $2.5 trillion of revenue for government over ten years, do you buy that, it doesn't solve the problem but growth goes a long way to address the problem. >> it certainly does, but the mistake it built in more going to the baseline than we'll ever get. if you start realistic view of deficit and debt. it is not 10 trillion over a decade. it is 15. that is what you have to start with. if you get a extra growth that may come down a few trillion, you're still deep into the soup.

you're still bankrupting the country. you have baby boom retiring, getting old, ending up in hospitals and nursing homes, all the rest. this is frightful demographic fiscal time bomb they're utterly irnorring. it is reaching a point where the one agency that kept it pasted together, the fed, announced we're done buying bond. we'll start shrinking our balance sheet. neil: they keep saying this for a while. >> neil, you have to take this seriously. neil: i do, but they talked about this day of reckoning. maybe you're right, they spell it out today or -- >> it will, it is going to start this fall. it has to. neil: so we know that day is coming. we know they have to start unwinding these positions. i guess a lot depends on the speed, who does the buying and how much at a discount they're doing buying because lifts the yield. >> the yield. neil: what do you envision? play that out. >> i think if they get to where

they say they will be early 2019 after the next election, they will be shrinking their balance sheet at a 600 billion annual rate. that is the same thing as selling. federal reserve selling 600 billion of bonds in 2019. on top of that the government is borrowing a trillion. that is how big the deficit is in 2019 at minimum. that will cause interest rates to go up several hundred basis points. it will undermine the whole fancy full dream which this whole economy is based on, cheap interest rate, junk bonds to finance every leveraged buyout. neil: you see a bubble in the bond market and bubble in the stock market? that is your crash? >> no, what you see today, toys "r" us crashed overnight. 5 billion in debt sitting there barely keeping it alive for 10 years. that is the warning. neil: that is their inability to survive in environment in amazon. >> that isn't it. they should have never put 5 billion of debt way back in

2006 on a company faced with walmart. amazon existed. neil: i see what you're saying. it was coming. >> not the debt but not as much appreciating environment? >> they should never have been able to borrow at low interest rates they did. neil: they're a prominent example. >> the whole economy. neil: a lot are in similar position. >> what i'm saying the whole economy is toys "r" us. everybody has been borrowing far more at cheaper interest rates than -- neil: i thought average americans were improving balance sheet? average companies improving balance sheet? >> that is wall street mythology. neil: you are really a debbie downer, you know that? >> i try to be realistic. there is 64 trillion of debt, public and private on economy today. federal reserve says it. not me. what did we have at the time of crisis in 2008. 53 trillion. we have 11 -- neil: a lot of corporates cleaned up their balance sheets or individuals paid down debt

because they were forced to but -- >> some did. but on other hand we have had massive borrowing in the corporate sector to buy back stock or to do m&a deals. neil: what will happen if they get much lower tax rates? the president wants that for them? what will they do with that? >> they will probably try to pay dividend in order to keep their stock price up. it will not lead to any jobs. neil: prop up something that won't help the economy? >> it will not lead to any new jobs. neil: donald trump a one-termer? >> if he makes it? neil: really? >> yeah. neil: so we inner play roles, democrats come in, same disaster, same drill? >> there is no con send fuss in country doing what needs to be done. lone voice, rand paul is out there saying people, wake up. neil: rand paul, president was indirectly criticizing him. >> who goes after the one guy who is speaking truth to power fiscally today. the president goes after rand paul. trump is the big spender like there is no tomorrow. he has no idea of the debt

disaster that is lurking down the road. he didn't create it. he inherited it. and his job is to deal with it if he wants to stay in the oval office. neil: but you can't grow out of it? you can't grow to make things better? >> you will be lucky to grow as much in the next 10 years as we did in the last 10 years. if we do that, we're already 30% higher growth than what cbo has in the forecast. neil: anything good going on? anything helpful? see any good movies? >> i don't know. neil: shorting stock, anything? >> no, there is a great movie coming about how in the darkest hour churchhill became prime minister of england in april 1940. good things happen, but not always. neil: all righty. if you're sharpening your razor blades at home -- one great thing about david, he is brilliant. you don't have to agree or disagree what he is saying. lay it out there, basic math. a lot of money coming in but no matter who, as he points out,

trump and elsewhere there is a lot more under democratic, republican presidents going out. the latest signs are we have done nothing to stop that. more after this. e military fami, and it really shows. we've got auto insurance, homeowners insurance. had an accident with a vehicle, i actually called usaa before we called the police. usaa was there hands-on very quick very prompt. i feel like we're being handled as people that actually have a genuine need. we're the webber family and we are usaa members for life. usaa, get your insurance quote today.

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neil: seeing melania trump speaking at a public forum. at a u.n. luncheon talking about protecting kids. >> as adults we're not merely responsible, we are accountable. i hope you will join me in committing ourselves to teaching the next generation to leave and honor the golden rule, do unto others as you would have them do unto you, which is paramount in today's society and our focus as first lady. it remains our generations moral

imperative to take responsibility for what our children learn. we must turn our focus right now to the message an content they are exposed to on a daily basis through social media, the bullying, the experience online and in person. and the growing global epidemic of drug addiction, and drug overdose. no children should ever feel hungry, frightened terrorized bullied, isolated or afraid with nowhere to turn. we need to step up, come together and insure that our children's future is bright. in the coming months, i hope to reach out to each one of you here today, to call upon you for your support and guidance and look forward to joining you in collaboration to support and educate our next generation. i'm asking leaders on social

media, who has market for products and platforms for children as well, community and educational leaders, to join me in this fight for the hopes and dreams of our children. with all my heart, i want to thank you, each one of you, for being here today. and tell you how much i'm looking forward to working with you on behalf of our children. god bless our children, god bless our nation. and god bless the united states of america. thank you. [applause] neil: all right. you've been listening to melania trump. she made among her signature issues protecting kids. echoing that in an international audience at united nations to do just that. meantime as she was speaking, we're following apple's stock, falling at 2% on reports that the new apple series 3, new watch with its own cellular connection, they're having

problems with that. deirdre bolton is here with that. it will not be in the public's hand until the 22nd. >> reviewer comments are killing the stock. you were covering this it was all-time high before rue viewers notes were trickling out. the question, will you pay $400, 399, for an apple watch that doesn't live up to its promises. most of the reviewers are saying not. our colleagues at "wall street journal" saying wait until apple fixes connectivity. that is the big reveal. neil: not doing that. >> exactly. people have been clamoring for two years, untether this device, untether this device, use the apple watch without having a apple phone nearby. all of these promises consumers have been waiting for for two years aren't working. whether you're trying to get data. whether you're trying to use siri, make a phone call, all of those connections -- neil: how would they fix that?

a bug or software thing? >> we have more -- neil: carrier itself, sprint, t-mobile, verizon? >> we do not have a statement yet from apple. but apple could very well make a statement in saying, well if the carriers would do their job i'm sure our brilliant product. there is a lot of that we haven't her anything from the carriers or apple. but the point is, this is our cellular lifeline for modern life. so if it doesn't work, there will be a lot of annoyed people. also not helping that there are reviewers talking about the iphone 8s which go on sale end of this weekend. if you have a 7, maybe it is not worth getting an 8 either, if you have an older phone, okay, fine, worth the up grade. it is not helping the stock or not helping the markets, the reviewer comments about the watch or 8 series. neil: what about the biggie, the 10 -- >> right, right. neil: the ios 11, new software

they have had glitches and problems with that. >> apps are not downloading correctly. you're bleeped if you do and bleeped if you don't, none of your things work any way. you're in a rock and hard place. neil: very young people here have to explain to me how it works. >> you saw i'm sure your apps weren't working, right? neil: well yes, that is -- >> monster coming across the screen eating all your apps. david: i had my sons explain this to me. they had no idea. >> apple, this is significant part of dow, s&p 500, nasdaq. neil: you're light. >> if this is bad season for apple, we talked about how this is new, new, apple, releasing three phones at once. neil: right. >> unat the time they aring this phone. there is a lot of things they're trying out for the first time. if this is a flop season for them. that is a huge problem. neil: that is the last thing they want. >> phones are 2/3 of apple's revenue. neil: wow.

to your point a prescient one, the stock is down about three points. down about 10 bucks from the highs it was, right around before the big announcement of all the new products. still an appreciable run hupp in the stock, up 30% this year. >> which some people say poised it to fall further. neil: yeah. so they say. we'll have more after this.

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neil: all right. many in the international community, were alarmed at president trump yesterday saying, you know, we will destroy north korea. that "rocket man" had better watch out. we have not heard from north korea so far. so what to make of all of this? whether that sort of jarred the international community, diplomatic community at least. hudson institute fellow rebecca heinrichs what she makes of that. north korea has been quiet. i understand, rebecca, the north korean delegation left because they had a preprinted copy of the president's remarks right before the north korean comment but what are they cooking up? >> these comments were made especially for the north koreans. they were not made for academics and professors here in the united states or diplomatic community. they were not made especially for hillary clinton, who is

unhappy with the president's remarks. she had her shot. she was secretary of state. she wasn't able to stop north korea. and what you she tried and what president obama tried didn't work. what president trump is trying to do, to be clear, not unambiguous with the north koreans but what the united states won't tolerate. so at this point the north could come back with more verbal threats. but they better not provoke the nights with another one of these missiles aimed towards anywhere in the united states territories because i believe the trump administration will make them regret for doing so. neil: they ought to be talking about diplomacy. the president did, tried multiple times. revisited the sanction well again and again. not as if he abandoning that option, saying there is a limit to it. we have to start pondering other things. no different than her husband said almost two decades ago. of course was snookered fairly

or not by the north koreans. what do you think? >> the former secretary of state should understand that diplomacy includes everything on the spectrum short of force. that include a credible threat of force. she should not that. the fact that she doesn't is you know to me communicates that the country really dodged a bullet by not having secretary clinton as the president of the united states. what we need is somebody who is actually willing to employ the strongest, most capable military force on the planet to protect the american people. again, this is not a president who wants war. president trump wants to build the economy. he wants to help the middle class. he wants to create jobs. this -- neil: was being a little sweeping. i'm sorry, we're cut for time. we're waiting for north korea. we're waiting to hear from elton john on the "rocket man" thing. more after this.

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and do all right. we are getting an idea of what the reactors doing. 80% of the homes in the neighborhood have been destroyed. eight out of 10. about 500 shelters are housing people in san juan colosseum moving to safety and hallways to a lot of them taken out of hotels to these facilities. a million without power.

dan wondered, that is pretty severe stuff early on. what is going on here? >> it is bad news come in meal. this is about the worst case scenario you could possibly mention. the southeastern part of the island is exiting on the northwestern part of the island. see track a category four storm right at her the heart of island and you put san juan in the eastern eye wall, wind gusts weigh over 110 miles an hour there appeared the damage is going to be catastrophic, not to mention the flooding over the interior area without the rain gauges. look at the record level of rain gauges and you are a peer, about the level of record flooding. some of the streams and rivers over the interior areas have catastrophic flooding levels. once we get it all said and done, we are talking tens of billions of dollars. >> nature in the frequency of these storms, the roughest patch

we've seen in a dozen years. president and former fema officials say we've got to rethink the way we planned for these event. were they so unusual you just don't necessarily -- you can pre-plan for them and commit tens of billions of dollars up front. what do you do? >> i guess that the billion dollars question if you will. here's the problem we have. we have roughly 10 years to the last big hurricane season when there is so much devastation. after the season, everyone was on board with preplanning and doing a better job of holding back development in vulnerable areas to wind damage, storm surge and interior flooding. that 10 years is gone and we've gone back to the increased development on the coastline and the regulations. i think in the coming months you'll hear more and more about maybe starting to get better

prepared because going forward, we'll have more of these situations. we will have more hurricane seasons better this battery can worst. >> one thing we've learned in the united states is the direct hits of those home they were reconfigured or reinforce or brought up to code in florida at minimum category three storm. it's not that they went unscathed, that you were property damaged as a result. not that they dodged a bullet by any means, but more of them did in would've been the case prior to this new building code. is that making a difference because that is not the case in some of these islands in the caribbean and the virgin islands area. maybe that will be something i'll talk more about. >> yeah, to be honest with you, i can't imagine what kind of building codes could withstand a category five coming over a tiny

island for some pain. these islands completely obliterated. there's not much you can do in that case. in the case of puerto rico u.s. virgin islands, and there are some standards we can take to make the most vulnerable areas a little bit more permeable to the catastrophic damage we have. this is kind of a moot point. it is too late now. they are going to shock you with regards to damage in the inland flooding. neil: where does this go out of puerto rico. it shows what? >> well, you mention spaghetti last time and they are as usual all over the place in some models pretty tight to the east coast. i know want to write anything off yet. i hate saying it is not possible. once you get the storm north of south carolina latitude, it is

really hard to get something like a sandy situation where you fling it back to the northwest and it makes landfall. nine out of 10 times it will go north, northeast and they have sure and that will be the case this time. it confirms the idea of keeping the storm offshore. you've got up really close path early next week. this is not something we can keep -- take our eye off of yet. this is going to be a tough one over the next couple days for sure. neil: if memory serves me right, sandy became the nor'easter and we weren't prepared for that. thank you, dan leonard. good seeing you again. in the meantime, a lot of people are writing out the latest storms. michael sorts is on the phone with us. in puerto rico that can be a crapshoot. a lot of people have been that

they might not be returning when they get back. 80% of the homes in one area considered beyond repair. what's going on here? >> absolutely. good afternoon. what we are currently seeing on the ground as they did move a lot of individuals that had impacts from hurricane earned him a week and a half ago from their homes that were damaged in locations that were a little bit more secure. also at evacuation of vintage visuals from hotels that are along the coast. what the salvation army or footprints in both puerto rico and we have over 900 volunteers and staff already there that called the sirius home the storm

is not a place where it's safe for us to do so. this is the response we've been doing for the last week and a half or so. they are specifically in puerto rico and virgin islands. just to give you an idea. just to give you real quick idea, joe scheier 78,000 to about 21,000 people a day. when you look further at st. thomas, which was absolutely devastated by hurricane irma, they lucked out this time with the storm still serving almost 3000 people there. this is something certainly that impacted the virgin islands and puerto rico and continue to do so for quite a while.

>> you know, puerto rico already was hit hard by irma, not to the degree it's getting hit now, but the whole reshoot itself. how does the salvation army spread the wealth? there's only so much you can do and only so much personnel you have peered >> welcome only try try to do the best that we can with the resources that we have. be that we do have a footprint already there on the island, we have equipment and locations that are arty set up with people in place. it's not as if we are having to bring in resources and personnel from other place is across the country into the caribbean. we are already there. long after the storm passes, these are communities that will be there. you are right. you focus on the higher impact areas and start working from

there back to reach into communities that have a little less impact but they still have the salvation army and so all needs are met serving the communities we live in. even taking preparedness efforts. on sunday we went out and puerto rico wednesday comments specifically and handed out doc says -- food boxes than gallons of water and emergency supplies, so people in safe locations on puerto rico and st. thomas can actually be self-sufficient for several days, which will help us serve the most needy who are homeless and severely impacted for the first day or two before they are able to run out of resources with event when they come back to us from our hall. trade to really appreciate the salvation army in you. thank you very much. be safe. trade to here is an indication

why it gets to be very difficult to address health care, whether you try to repeal obama cared or just trying to improve it. nancy pelosi right now saying i think we have a really good chance to stop it in the house, referring to the republican repeal effort because it has such violence to the health care people in california, new york and other places. okay, more after this.

>> i think we have a really good chance to stop it and now because it does such violence to health care and other places. neil: i will put nancy pelosi down as it may be i don't know where the violence comes from. she's not a fan. a host of other democrats even tinkering with obama cared affordable care to former cincinnati republican dare. very early on, donald trump all the way to the white house. very good seeing you, but i was thinking that hearing remarks in thinking of that, you know, the peaceful overtures that looked to be developing between the

president, nancy pelosi, chuck schumer, wondering how long that is. >> nancy pelosi doesn't want to give the president a win. if it was just that, you might be able to understand it. not giving the president a win on health care means hurting millions and millions of americans. i'm not sure she wants to own night, but she will not issue torpedoes this deal. >> or maybe she's calculating that it will come back to boomerang the president that republicans destroyed something. i know what you're saying. how do you interpret that? >> first, i think she has to admit that she has the imagination of jonathan swift and that is obama cared is a failure and it's tanking the economy, but more importantly it is hurting families.

>> unit is the democrats seem to be rallying around medicare for everyone. that is increasingly, at least as entertaining presidential prospects from bernie sanders to virtually everyone else there that seems to be the direction they are going, so that's what they are pressing on. >> that is unfortunate. the graham-cassidy six is not perfect. you cannot let the good be the enemy of the perfect your >> this is the latest attempt with a little bit more support and fail than to the senate. what do you think? >> i work with groups that were on the front line for trump. susan b. anthony's latest and they were strong advocates for full repeal. but they are on board with the president and graham-cassidy in

this initiative because this is major surgery to obama cared and it really does meet the object is making sure that people who make coverage get coverage and in the framework of old-fashioned federalism pushing back more authority. neil: do you think this is robbing time? whatever you think of them, robbing time to get tax cuts time and that is on a daisy schedule. >> it goes back to some folks that are hell-bent on making sure the president doesn't get a win, even if they win for the president is a larger win for americans in terms of fueling economic growth and job creation and put americans back to work and providing them with health care coverage at a reasonable cost.

and so, in this petty politics that is going on by nancy pelosi is not without. >> i always see you as a diplomat friend to bridge the divide between the establishment and donald trump. many of the establishment said as soon as the president reaches out to do the debt ceiling with nancy pelosi and chuck schumer, that the writing was on the wall and he was all but given up on republicans who would entertain deals with democrats, maybe get votes from democrat or a tax-cut package that in order to win them over will not include cuts for the rich and the democrats are going to play ball. bending over backwards to accommodate them, please been and they stick it to them. >> that is their objective. >> you can understand why a lot

of your colleagues are saying this is who you're dealing with. >> here is what they do now. watching the framework of this domestic policy being constructed. if we want to get to things like violations for sky agreements, if we want to get to things like making sure that the disastrous iran deal is reversed, we have to get tax cuts done. we at least have to establish the framework for bipartisan cooperation on this health care package. they are not going to come across and help us. then we in fact have to first start -- >> we don't get tax cuts done this year. it is safe to say we are not going to ever get it done.

>> if we don't get major tax cuts done this year, it has to be a middle class relief and we really do have to cut the corporate rate down to 15% -- neil: i think i would be very helpful. >> baby is 18, a lot lower than it is with our economic growth is so important. we actually got to get it done. a election does barack obama let us know. elections have his. i think senator schumer and congresswoman pelosi need to revisit that statement by barack obama and get with the program for the american people. >> they don't have a lot of

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>> welcome back to cavuto coast to coast cavuto coast to coast. i nicole petallides pit existing home sales for a third straight month down 1.7% with easily adjusted rate of 5.35 million, looking at the homebuilders today.

and the beginning of the year, however and not just a 2017 we look at that and a number of homes on the market declined 2% from a month earlier. year-over-year about 6.5% lower. one of the reasons that this number for the past month was lower than it any surprise drop drop was because of harvey. we know the hurricanes have been moving through the construction projects put on hold in the coming months. texas, florida throughout the south and that will pressure the housing market overall. the economist said the demand overall remains strong, that the amount of homes out there are just not out there and there were like into the homeowners to sell is also an issue. neil cavuto, that to you. neil: nicole petallides, thank you very much. republicans are doing their darndest to get the tax cut package through. they haven't formally agreed on anything outside of maybe one point by a trillion dollars a tax-cut revenue over the next 10 years.

committee for responsible budget right now. we go back and forth on the need for tax cuts or what have you. i know your view as he could use a little fiscal discipline first before we address stuff like this now. but republicans are intent on cutting taxes. it may be closer to what george w. bush did without tax reform, more like tax-cut. the hope is at least republicans say that will create some revenue. i just want to be clear because you study this more than anyone. you tax-cut scree revenue? are they right about that? >> tax cuts grow the economy and creates revenue, but not nearly enough to pay for itself. so they could cover a fraction of the revenue there's no question cutting taxes on its own will grow the debt. let me clarify where i come from. i'm right in line where the republican leadership in the big fix working on this issue were a

couple weeks ago and what we need desperately as tax reform that is revenue neutral and would grow the economy. what is happening is because offsetting bit rate cuts which can help grow the economy is very difficult in getting those loopholes. there's a constituency for each one of them. the political forces are aligning and saying we can't do the hard work of making the tax reform revenue neutral. let's just lose revenue. the difference when george bush had a tax-cut was, the debt was 33% of the economy. today it is more than doubled that much. we do not have the fiscal space to be growing the debt by $125 trillion. what we should be doing is revenue neutral tax reform that will grow the economy, be good for the budget and the economy and families. it takes hard work which i know congress doesn't like doing, but would benefit from that approach of tax reform.

>> the president meeting with african leaders of new york city, let's listen a little bit here. >> the u.s. africa relations. my name is a charming master from assistant to the president for national security affairs. we are honored to be joined by his excellency, president who save any of uganda. his excellency, president summa of south africa. his excellency, president with kara of quote the bar. his excellency, president -- is excellently president salus senegal. his excellency, president gingu of the video.

his excellency, the president of nigeria. his actually, ottto of gonda. we also welcome your distinguished ministers. i am pleased to be joined by other prime members of the president's cabinet, our secretary of state, rex tillerson, chief of staff, john kelly and our permanent representative to the united nations, nikki haley as well as state department chief of staff margaret fear land and are great senior director for african affairs, zero starter. it is a great privilege to host you, a group of valued partners with whom we have strong relationships that will grow stronger in the coming month in years and it is a great honor to

introduce to you our 45th president of the united states, will donald jay trump. [applause] >> thank you, general thank you, general i appreciate it and am greatly honored to host this lunch, to be joined by the leaders of the côte d'ivoire, ethiopia, guinea, mom b., nigeria, senegal, uganda and south africa. in particular i want to thank president conde who is representing the african nation. thank you. i see partners for promoting prosperity and peace on economic humanitarian and security issues. we hope to extend our partnerships with countries who are committed to self-reliance

and fostering opportunities for job creation and both africa and the united states. africa has tremendous business potential. so many friends go into your countries, trying to get rich. i congratulate you. they are spending a lot of money. but it has a tremendous business potential of and representing huge amounts of different markets for american firms that's really become a place that they have to go that they want to go. six of the world's 10 fastest growing economies are in africa. and grazing american trade and investment across diverse industries including agriculture, energy, transportation, health care, travel and tourism will further transform lives throughout the continent. secretary tillerson in the u.s.

millennium challenge corporation are already considering an investment worth hundreds of millions of dollars in côte d'ivoire, which has made impressive economic reforms. really done a tremendous job. we also hope that african firms like the countries of saul consider making investments in the united states as an example that is tilting a $9 billion petrochemical plant in louisiana , which will bring new jobs to the state and really hard-working americans will be manning those jobs. but we cannot have prosperity if we are not healthy. we will continue our partnership on critical health initiatives. uganda has made incredible strides in the battle against hiv/aids.

in guinea and nigeria, you've got a horrifying ebola outbreak. mbs health system is increasingly self-sufficient. my secretary of health and human services will be traveling to africa to promote our global health security agenda. yet, we know that our prosperity depends above all on peace. the united states will partner with the countries and organizations like the african union that lead successful efforts to end violence, to prevent the spread of terrorism and to respond to humanitarian crises. i commend your troops currently serving in the field, very brave. very, very brave what they are going through. as you well know, too many people are suffering from conflict in africa. and the central african republic, congo, libya, mali,

somalia and south sudan among others are going through some very, very tough and very dangerous times. terrorist groups such as isis, auch of bob, boko haram and al qaeda also threaten african peace. the united states is proud to work with you to eradicate terrorists safe haven, to cut off their finances and to discredit the depraved ideology. a number of you have told me actually last night that we've been doing a very good job over the last six or seven months in particular. we are closely monitoring and deeply disturbed by the ongoing violence in south sudan and in the congo. millions of lives are at risk and may continue to provide humanitarian assistance.

but real result in halting this catastrophe will require an african led peace process and a sincere -- really sincere commitment of all parties involved. and i know you are working on that and you are working on that very hard. to assist in its efforts i am sending ambassador nikki haley to africa to discuss revenues of conflict and resolution. and most importantly, prevention. lastly, i want to discuss our partnership against a global challenge. today the world faces an enormous security threat from north korean regimes. we must all stand together in the accountable and implementing united nations sanctions and resolutions in response to north korea's hostile and menacing actions. we believe that a free, independent and democratic nation in all cases is the best

vehicle for human happiness and success. thank you for joining me for this critical discussion of the challenges and the opportunities facing our nations. africa i have to say is a continent of tremendous, tremendous potential. the outlook is bright. i look forward to hearing from you and your advice during the meal i thought rather than just eating we will have long discussions and i look forward to that very much. but i also look forward to getting to know so many of you and so many of you i do know and it is an honor. and they really want to congratulate you growing very fast economically and in every other way, you've done a terrific job. you've had some tremendous obstacles placed in your path.

do you have done really an absolutely incredible job. i want to thank you and i look forward to our discussion. thank you. thank you all very much. [applause] >> ladies and gentlemen, it is a great privilege to introduce president kaunda for his response as president of the african union. welcome, sir. neil: we are monitoring the bidding of the president as the u.n. is in town at the annual session of the general assembly upon. this is the president meeting with various groups come after meters today within the united states is expanded a member of the business commitments. we will continue to monitor all of this. in the meantime, also monitoring maria, hurricane maria come a storm that is now wiped out power to everyone in puerto rico. 3.5 million puerto ricans are without power as we speak.

gas prices are naturally in this country still stubbornly high after harvey and irma. what is going on here and what could this storm do with any of the refineries that would normally be affected by storms that they got even close to that neck of the woods. alan, what is interesting is that they are still oil related prices, still kind of close to what they were even before harvey had yet why is that? >> well, like we talked about before, it is real easy to raise prices and then they gradually come down. if you look at the wholesale future price, it has come off, back down to $1.60. i look at this in a positive. we see crude oil itself moving up between 47 for six weeks going absolutely nowhere. we are at the highest level since may. i'm looking at that as a boost for the stock market because there is a lot of energy stocks

that are going to gain from higher oil prices. consumer not suffer in a whole lot, but like i said it is more sticky pricing than anything. we haven't seen a secondary rally in the gas futures. it just feels like we are holding some of those gains. neil: you might not telegraph any hikes today. maybe down the road. certainly, the first details on how to get rid of the $4.5 trillion on the bonds they have, the former budget director for ronald reagan, and he's sounding very alarmed as you know. >> is always alarmed. neil: you are right. his latest concern right now is the fed reserve cannot unload all of these without interest rates going up substantially. he said at least a full percentage point. what do you make of that? >> i watched them very closely in your interview. he's got an assumption that they can't just hold the portfolios they want to.

these will mature and it generates revenue for the fed. this is a portfolio of interest-bearing products here. it will generate revenue by itself. unwinding some of this or stopping the buying of these wrongs is a virtual rate hike. so they don't need to do any rate hike now or even in december. looking at the rate, there's not a 75% chance until they get to june of 2018. that means a lower dollar. so i'm looking to continue to boost some of these market in eighth and that can give underlying support to crude oil and again to sector the stock market to separate them zero so far in 2017. neil: it's debatable whether that would be stimulated to the economy, but it would be a watch from what you are saying. one thing that comes up is we are getting word on mitch mcconnell that they will consider the health care rework after some time for a vote next

week. baby hope springs eternal day we'll get springs eternal that will get a pass like other repeated efforts that have not. but of course that the stage that the tax cuts might not be as sweeping as earlier thought. all of this could be very, very wrong. things just have to go right to teach here with every little item, don't pay for the markets to deal with that? >> well, the markets are beyond it. we have seen this a couple times as far as health care goes and where make a new all-time highs almost every single day. neil: i just want to be clear because you've got a very good read of things. how much of that is built on the expectation that these happening. forget about the health care thing, but that the cuts have been. >> i don't think a whole lot to be honest with you. if it happens or when it happens, that is an added boost. the corporations are profiting fantastically all-time record profit and that is only going to

get greater if and when these tax cuts come. if that happens is the cherry on top of the momentum of the market is unstoppable at this particular time because corporations are making so much money. neil: what about the possibility of the wealthy not getting tax cuts, corporate tax-cut not been as low as five. still from the 35% prevailing rate. how will the markets deal with that? how will rich people deal with that? how will you deal with that? >> well, there's three different constituencies you just talked about. i think people will be somewhat upset. but again, the last eight to 10 years at the stock market roaring back. i don't think there are going to be as much complains as you might think. obviously, it would be an added bonus for some of these people. it is just adding zeros to their portfolio position. everybody's got something to be

excited about as far as the market recovery we've seen in the last few years. >> row quickly come as a young came up to you today, through all of this and they said yeah, i want in. i want to invest in an etf that mimics the dow, nasdaq, s&p or something. what you saw them? >> look long term. as long as you don't need the money in the next two to three years because we are overdue as we say every single day for some pullback. we haven't had a to decline since november so that is getting long in the tooth as far as noble futility in the marketplace. big picture, there is still no point between treasuries in stock. right now the yield on s&p, if you look at the third-year right now, we've got to point to 5%. so there is no choice between the safety of treasuries in stock yields right now.

neil: that is interesting. very interesting as our youth. thank you very, very much. good seeing you again. real smarty-pants there appeared a big picture view of all of this. what if the u.s. has to be nothing to do a tax cuts. it's rather unusual point of view. i'm hearing it more often from people. the latest from capitol hill in this effort by mitch mcconnell to get the so-called graham-cassidy kerouac to replace the affordable care act or they think they've got something. they thought that before. they are so confident they are willing to put this on the floor for hope next week. we are on it. what did we do before phones?

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neil: we've got some quick developments in washington considering they really dated details on the tax cut in all of that and blake urman on top of it all. >> either, neil. i was just told moments ago as it relates to the tax relief rollout on the details but the tentative plan at this point is to put forth whatever details they may be on wednesday. as you know, last week it was republican leadership who said the week of the 25th,

september 25th later this month you would get those details. we would release them. now we are being told by one source on the hill by wednesday the 27th is when indeed the tentative plan is to release these details. of course i think the first tentative plan is important as we've seen that this congress over the last how many months or so that when you try and get to a timeline, sometimes they stray. when you consider that quite possibly, they could be taking on health care, a potential graham-cassidy bill next week is sometime as well. bottom line with all of this, we're expecting tax details to be released at some point this week in the compass is pointing to a direction, so we are told that when day. neil: newsbreak is, he fixes it. i like that line. anyway, charlie gasparino, carol ross, would you think of that wednesday may be get the

details. charlie: i don't know what's taking so long. they have a plan put forth. donald trump advocating a plan that art laffer and larry kudlow in stephen moore. and it was pretty detailed. it didn't have everything in there, buddy with detailed, broad outline so to speak. i don't know what we are talking about. there is a plan, do it. we need to know what a great do certain people -- i don't know why it took this long. neil: i know. now we have the added complication, maybe a good complication depending on the health care rework of this one. that doesn't make any difference to you factor in the same come out, all of the above? >> i think any complication is a bad complication, especially when it comes to congress given the fact they can't focus on

anything or negotiate their way out of a paper bag. i would like to see the tax reform be done first in the devil is in the details. i can be patient for a few days or a few weeks on something that can get done. if we put out something and this is going on and on, that is a bad thing for everybody. neil: i want to pass on something as scott martin better to roberti, one of the sparse people on the planet, like scary smart, why cheated off of in school. anyway, he just reminded me of a little marketed it here. the dow jones industrial has crossed the unchanged level 141 times today. it's up about six points or so today. he doesn't explain why that significant site on the loss. but is it significant? >> probably in the course is seeing the anticipation is charlie brady a good-looking man two. what worries about the statement blake was talking about.

[inaudible] >> back to. what is funny as the were tentative. to me it means december. let's say we finally do get something passed in congress at the end of the year. it's unlikely to be retroactive. neil: this could be uncertainly according to the fed's decision in the balance sheet. we'll get details to that. they don't know. charlie: there's two things going on here. tax reforms and tax cuts which should stimulate the economy you would hope as they do with a 15% corporate tax cut. and the fed will be stimulate the economy and defense. here is what they are doing. they pulled all the stuff off the balance sheets of banks known as you read. that has the impact of lowering interest rates and putting capital out there. it did. neil: unwind and it is not necessarily damaging it. charlie: unwinding it means you sell securities, the same

securities nominally. neil: the reason carol ross said that by not happen as we can fit on the securities or they can sell them painfully slow. no obligation to do things in wide growth now. would you make about? >> the only challenge of the $4.5 trillion of security they have come a third of that has maturities of laughs than five years. even with the runoff not reinvesting and buying bonds, i agree with charlie that will have an impact. by the way, the stock market editor charlie brady has concluded that the dow was doing a lot of and change stuff today. that is a big deal. after this.

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neil: all right. i don't know if this is a record but as your senior editor charles brady pointed out, the dow jones industrials crossings unchanged level 141 times today is noteworthy. could indicate markets are concerned about a federal reserve decision due momentarily. what they could tell braff regarding a rate hike, when we see one now, very unlikely or end of the year, increasingly likely, but not guaranteed. what will they do with treasury notes they have, $4.5 trillion. we had a guest say release them,

solely mature, that is not big of a deal. but unwind them in a little way here would obviously potentially back up interest rates and buy things on the dip. obviously that increases the rate. a lot going on, we'll know very soon. trish regan will be all over it. trish: hey, neil. this is pretty exciting stuff. we're seconds away from the fed. the fed went out after 2008 and they basically fought 4. a trillion dollars worth of government mortgages and government bond and the reason that is such a big deal, that is a lot of money. we're talking about the quarter after the size of annual out put of our economy. 4.5 trillion if they start to unwind that, that could have some pretty big effects. by buying all of these mortgages and all these government bond the fed was able to keep interest rates very low. some would say artificially low. which then led to those with assets, those with capital,

benefiting in a higher market environment. we need fundamental growth. we need real growth. and maybe it is time the fed gets out of the way, but what are the consequences? that is what is at stake. adam has to the got it. reporter: no increase in the interest rate. the federal funds target is 1.25%. the fed will unwinding the $4.5 trillion balance sheet this october. the committee will balance sheet normalization, gradual eye le redoing payments from federal holdings. october 31st the first cap of $6 billion hit with treasurys. $4 billion is the cap october 13th. agency mortgage-backed securities this will gradually increase every month going forward to roughly each reaching $50 billion if they continue on this path in october of 2018. quarterly economic projections