of it. the market is down 45 points. i think we opened with gain of 150, now pretty much flat at minus 45. neil, it's yours. neil: all right, stuart, we are following on earning season, really kicking off with all of the financial firms coming up, all with strong numbers, the banks are going just fine, thank you, but now concern about regulation, particularly with wells fargo a separate incident there which could be weigh on this. there's also concern about, you know, little things like maybe going to war this weekend with syria, so much we don't know, this much we do. the markets are confused. right now down 44 on the dow. what to make of all of this into the weekend, john, gary, gerri willis. gerri, the markets can't get a hold of this? >> every day is different and you don't know what will move the markets next. i tend to be glass half full, i

look at the positives in the economy, this is great and we are going up from here but you also think about what might go wrong. the federal reserve say, we think things are going to the sky, the big negative is they overreact and start raising rates more than they should and that could hurt the economy. that's just one thing out there. neil: still strong week unless everything falls out of bed? >> ly take the half empty for this second. [laughter] >> today we hear supposedly some people in russia talking about going after boeing and not exporting titanium so boeing stock gets hit and you have the syria and trump with the tweets. i'm not a big believer, it's how the market reacts to the news, i would like to know jpmorgan and wells fargo,pnc were smacked down. i do not want to see bad reaction to earnings that are

supposedly good but expected. neil: i could see, john, the concern about wells fargo because in their statement they telegraphed but that's wells fargo development, i would think, but then it carried -- the whole financial sector with it on better than expected numbers and then down. >> you had jamie diamon -- neil: jpmorgan chase? >> yes. has been flat and industrial, business loans are up by roughly 1% from a year ago. and if you're not getting rapid lending growth, then all likelihood the fed is overestimating the underlying health health of the u.s. economy and the fed is also overestimating inflation risks. neil: so i could flip that around to your earlier point and say, what am i worried about multiple rate hikes in this

environment that might not happen. >> isn't it we got is inflation going down that has been the global economy is going great. maybe not. the tenured government bond yield has dropped from the start of the year to a recent 3.7%. >> the two-year was the highest rate.

the two-year and a ten year are getting a lot closer. normally that could be a slow down or worse. if you look at these long-term earnings forecasts, they are still going to grow by 10%. that is down from the nearly 20% from 2018. moreover, revenue growth is expected to slow. it is at odds with any forecast calling for 3.5% ten year treasury yield. >> that's an important point because everybody is talking about the earnings being strong and the market has to go up. >> did we factor in tax cuts and this would be the first quarter that would be representative and that would lift everybody. >> i think when you get a 18% -- >> and that's not good enough?

peak earnings, that's what hurts markets. the markets start to feel that as earnings come out and guidance comes out. >> are you disappointed in the year-over-year growth. >> when they see something already done they look forward. they are reactive. if they see smaller numbers they will start -- stop raising rates. they will lower rates if need be. they will still say they grew at 7%. >> one positive thing, facebook, do you think they are in a world of trouble? they're doing terrible and awful but no. their revenue is going higher but i know the company said it today but there are outside sources saying week to week gains are 7%, 14%. they are doing great. >> do you pay attention, i'm

talking the political one and the consensus of this blue wave because couldn't this blue wave undo a lot of the things the markets like, the tax cuts nancy pelosi wants to revisit a lot of other stuff. >> the blue wave could tell the market that the average american wants more regulation, wants higher taxes, wants to punish the high achievers in this economy. that would very much be negative for the marketplace. >> is that what you would interpret it to mean. >> that's one way to look at it. i would be careful at this time but it's very possible. >> in many waves we've got that wrong. they don't pan out. >> the market did well under obama. >> you're absolutely right, but this punishment will be that the republicans decided to raise government spending, deficits into a trillion

dollars, and i know for fact a lot of republicans and politicians have been getting a ton of phone calls from constituents saying what the heck was that. i think there's a possible penalty right there. as far as the democrats, if they win, they have already said they are going to put in legislation to roll back the tax cuts which i believe have worked pretty darn well. on top of that you can bet your bottom dollar they will drive to the hoop on donald trump with impeachment, you name it, there will be investigations and i promise you the markets will be a big pain in the rear. >> what about $21 trillion in federal debt and the president wants to make the tax cuts permanent. where is anybody with any sense of fiscal discipline, i think that's a problem for the markets, for the economy generally. it's ridiculous. >> it will take a fiscal crisis to bring back fiscal discipline. it may take a steep jump by

the ten year treasury yield that cripples the economy to put washington at work bringing down this deficit. >> we will send them $3.5 trillion. share with 6 million in local and state and are still telling us it's not enough. in the coming year the first 400 billion of our tax dollars is going into the toilet. interest on all the debt, in a few years only 700 billion. you cannot continue that trajectory forever without something happening. >> spend whatever you want, anytime you want it. >> i would have never imagined that analogy. on the china trade deal with the threat of war and call me and all this other stuff, do any of you get a sense that the administration which is apparently revising a new list of tariffs because it doesn't look like the chinese are budging, that situation could look a little more problematic.

>> i think they will move more quickly to get a deal if the market shows frustration with the lack of progress on this front. i can't help but think that donald trump pays close attention to how the equity market response. >> i think you're you're right about the reversal, it was a classic case of that. >> and the comments saying that we all got so excited when he said this is the table, that something that happens a lot. >> i thought it would be a start but now we hear this morning that will go ahead with this other hundred billion dollars and that doesn't help that i wish they would all get in a room, drink some latte and try to hammer it out. i will tell you who it's affecting -- >> have you had a pumpkin spiked latte. >> not recently. >> you add some vodka and

nobody knows. anyway, that's the shocker. >> we don't know what's next. all i can tell you is my biggest complaint about obama was the uncertainty. business owners need to plan and based on these potential tariffs, they don't know what's happening and i'm seeing interviews and their not sure what's next. just make a decision,. >> but they might be okay. the irony would be that a threat of a tariff was good enough to get the chinese to come to the table and make a concession, it's way too early, granted, but why be so public about it. >> time and again he wants to be the center of attention. he wants to be out there in front instead of having quiet negotiations take place and destabilize the marketplace. >> we got a comment from the president, sad. [laughter] thank you. the dow is down.

they didn't do anything to move the market. in the meantime, what will happen and why are we seeing more bank about from these taxes. they are saying if it had not been from the tax cuts the numbers would look so robust. the read on that on tax tax day when i sit down with mitch ca

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because the time to think about tomorrow...is today. go long. >> we have had six resolutions that would really bring president aside to justice and callout syria for chemical weapons. six items then veto by russia. you have russia who has helped them cover-up the use of chemical weapons and a violation of international law. what are we supposed to do? then another chemical weapon attack happened and now they want to say it's fake? at some point, you have to do something. >> nikki haley wasn't tipping her hand and the white house

is mama on the subject. we don't know what the response could be. former state department spokesman. [inaudible] ambassador, thank you for taking the time. >> i know i'm sounding like someone who is part of the black helicopter crowd. are we sure that the weapons used were in fact used by syria and they planned the attack. >> if it was an elaborate ruse, the elaborate this would be unprecedented. i think the evidence from the victims that they've done, they've taken urine and hair samples and saliva samples, they've tested them in labs,

it's kind of like the case of the russians poisoning their agents in london, all indicators point to assad and the syrian regime. it's not the first time they've done this. we have really seen this movie before. anyone casting doubts on president asad's responsibility is covering up for him. >> you might be right. the french have confirmed it themselves and their intelligence tells them that's the case. i'm just reminded of president bush and the weapons of mass destruction and we thought for sure they were there and other parties that might be interested in seeing this escalate and then i'm thinking why would he risk the wrath of the united states knowing full well that is exactly what he would get in doing this. >> does he really know that? the fact of the matter is he use them a year ago, we launched 56 tomahawks against

an air base from which he delivered the weapons but it didn't have the deterrent effect we intended because a year later he uses them again. the calculation being that i can weather whatever u.s. throws at me if they throw anything about me. three days before this trump said he wanted all our troops out of syria. so he is saying i've got open field running now. >> it's round to blame any american official for a war criminals use of chemical weapons. he made that decision because he's an animal. , but, i think if he is calculating what price am i going to pay and hears american officials looking for the exits in syria, he fears himself as having open field running and that is why make no mistake, we must act and we must act hard and in a way

that leaves him no doubt that the price he pays for using chemical weapons will be intolerably high and he never does it again. >> to think the price might be his life? does that include wiping him ou out? >> i doubt it. i wish it were, but that might be a bridge too far. i think the reason this is taking so long and i think it's a question of when we attack, not if we attack. the reason it's taking so long is our nation leaders are deciding what are the objectives of the strike. what do we want to accomplish. we want to take down the regime? i doubt it. we want to prevent them from having the capability of delivering chemical weapons in the future? that sounds or likely. you have to ask another question. what do we need to hit.

>> more than what we did last year. >> it has to be night and day. >> do you think part of what we are looking at is a coordinated response with the french, the british, the else trillions. >> we are telling the turks to stay out of the way and were trying to d conflict with the russians. one other point i need to make, lost in the discussion is iran. let's be clear, the road to tehran starts in the damascus print if we want to constrain iran which we have set is the biggest danger in the region, we have to go after assad because he is kept in power by around and it's driving them crazy. interesting data point. in the last week the value of iranian currency fell 35%. it fell 50% in three years since roe honey has been in

office. they are on the verge of economic collapse. we need to strike syria to strike at iran and the feet extremism which got us in this position in the first place. >> all right. we will see what happens. the dow is down about 60 points. in this country, troops are at the border. arizona troops were among the first to arrive. what will they be doing and for how long? after this.

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zero the first of those troops arrived at the mexican border from arizona. a lot of pressure is building for a wall. this might be a preview to that. he felt he had to do this due to increasing immigration

across the border. they want to agree on a deal that includes daca and the wall. what's the real deal? it's hard to tell. we will get an update from someone on the ground. congressman, good to have you back. >> i am hearing that the troops will be there a while. are you hearing the same? >> i am. i anticipate they will be there a while. they will probably go through some rotations, but we've done this before. until we get a wall built we will need to supplement the border patrol agents with the national guard. i think it is a good move. >> what do they have the power to do? some of you suggested they won't be armed. i can't imagine that. >> they will not be armed. but what they will be doing is providing surveillance and

transports. some of these places are remote so that ice and border patrol agents can keep working in the transport people back to tucson so they can process them and incarcerate them. they will help maintain vehicles and provide backup. i did talk to border patrol this week and they are excited. they think it's a great move and it will help them be more effective on the border. >> the original target was this caravan coming from honduras that has since broken up. to know anything about that. >> i'm hearing there are some caravans and i think those will also break up. i think president trump is trying to work with mexico and negotiate 74 spent so mexico won't be an intermediary transport company where they're allowing them to come across. i am in dissipating that these guys will be there for a while.

i think the caravans will break up. we are up in numbers. as soon as you start talking about amnesty you get increase border crossing and we are at a three-year high. >> can i ask you about paul ryan indicating he won't seek reelection. many in your party want. [inaudible] what are your thoughts. >> i'm not sure this is the best time to organize the house of representatives. i'm fine with him staying through the end of the year, but if he's going to do that he has to get serious and get this agenda moving. we are so late in getting some of the stuff done that we have an election you're coming and i know there's going to be pressure on speaker ryan and that will be his call, but we have to get moving on some of

these things we promised we would do. >> there are two hats in the ring that we know of, steve scalise and kevin mccarthy. if you had your druthers, who would it be? >> i'm going to reserve, i think there will be other people getting in the race. >> i want to see how it all shakes out, quite frankly. >> that's a tough position to be in. to organize and hear what some call like herding cats. would have to be a conservative fire or someone who appeals to the freedom caucus where those against big spending packages like the 1.3 trillion the president wants to cut down, what kind of person do you think it should be. >> it needs to be someone who is serious about balancing the budget. it's out of control spending and budget deficits that pose a threat to the united states. we have to get going on that. i also want someone who will

get back to regular order. i think we've only had one regular order bill where we been able to provide amendments on the floor. they prevent us from actually representing our constituency when they say look, you can't put amendments on here. that is a problem. people want to represent their constituents but they want to say i could support this bill if we did this amendment or we can make this build that are. i'm looking for somebody who can do those two things. and the third thing that's very important to me, they have to look me in the eye and tell me the truth, not tell me a lot. i want the truth. >> is the truth that republicans are just not up to entitlement reform, that is just too politically unpopular? the president isn't keen on it and with the exception of paul ryan who tried many have said it's just not worth it. >> a lot of people say that.

i'm concerned about that because you both know where we are headed economically or financially over the next ten or 15 years. i think yesterday's balanced budget amendment is a prime example of how we deceive people and say were to do this balanced-budget amendment. it would do nothing for 12 years. it would've had a 30 trillion-dollar deficit by then. these are the things that drive me crazy. used to have a head full of hair that was blonde and now it's gray and falling out. >> that's all the budget. i had no idea. thank you very much. good seeing you. >> in the meantime the dow is down about 47 points. oil is moving up close to 9%. that's the highest level it's been in three years. inflation, i think it's a bit of a worry. after this

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will . >> who knew, apparently james galway has a book that's out

and a lot of people are talking about it, the president responded to him referring to him as a weak and untruthful slimeball. >> that's it? >> the hits keep on coming. let's get into this. it will have an effect on things whether their revelations or some people feel it pushes the president to the brink and they start firing people. the fact of the matter is it's all anyone talking about except me when i refer to the cuts. >> we have got charlie and the bush 43 speechwriter. danica, this is going to be all james kelly all the time with the interview and the interviews to follow in the thrashing around with the book.

what you make of this. >> it's predictable in that part of the reason he wrote the book, the entire point, they want to get a lot of buzz, they want this to obtain number one ranking on all the bestseller list and they want to make some money. that's why he's writing the book. he also wants to set the record straight but this is a time honored tradition and he's participating in it. >> any residual impact. >> i think what trumps enemy want to do is drag him down to the mud and he needs to stay out of the mud and above the fray. >> to think he can do that. >> i don't know. but he should and let his hair gets attacked james comey by asking difficult questions like for example why did he start writing the exoneration speech about hillary clinton two months before the interview. why did they immunize cheryl mills and the two aides to

hillary clinton and destroyed the laptops. who destroys laptops before an investigation has ended. he also change the espionage act to extreme carelessness. there's nothing about extreme carelessness. where did he get the power to do that. >> i read a lot of the experts out there and he thought hillary was going to be the next president. >> i've known him for years. i think it's instructive to look what he did with quattro in context of what he cares about with donald trump. he is over the top. it's hard to explain. he's over-the-top in his belief on what constitutes right and wrong. if you pierce his, the problem, if you show that you are guilty, even if it's that guilty, he will bring the

whole apparatus of the government down on you, even if it's that guilty. that's the way comay is. >> while he didn't bring it down on hillary clinton. >> i know because he didn't think she was guilty. he didn't think she was as bad, you have to get into his head. he's a very complicated guy. if you defy his moral standards, you end up on the bad side. >> it's called sanctimonious. >> but that's what i'm saying. he does have this sanctimonious, he's talking about how good he is and how bad donald trump is. >> i want to pursue that with you a little bit and this notion that he is clearly not a fan of the president. some excerpts view he had a very damning opinion of the guy. if you would have stayed in power he would've maintained that view.

>> absolutely. it's been revealing that he would've been an activist for whatever he thought was appropriate even outside the office spread we did see some of that. >> not only from him. say what you will, but a lot of principles that the security agents and those who appear on cnn and what have you have a dim view of donald trump. maybe for legitimate reasons but these are people that when they were in power and were in a position to judge him didn't like it. that's a big deal. >> he can undercut his own merit. >> you can't abuse power the way james comey did. taking these memos to his friend at columbia university so he could leak them too journalists and get a special counsel, that violates the law and he should have been arrested for that.

>> i don't think that violates the law. here's where i think. >> those were not classified documents. >> here's what i would say. what scares me about comay is his sanctimonious this, he goes after people, he thought frank was immoral. when he sent out an e-mail, he was a former investment bakker and charged him with obstruction of justice. i know for a fact when they were deliberating on who should they appoint back during the transition in 2016, trump was told by a lot of people don't. the guy is what he is, and he did it anyway. why did he do it anyway. my view is that it was payback. he believed james comey gave him the election. i really believe that. there's no good guy. there's a lot of gray hats.

>> is this the kind of book, i haven't read it, but is this the kind of book that a sanctimonious person writes because it seems again there is more of that sensational stuff than a thoughtful former fbi director with the interest of our country in red, white and blue and all of that has in mind. >> i think he's a very self-righteous person. i think we have seen that. what has happened, i was a former book editor. when you are writing a book, he probably had a ghostwriter, we will find out. >> i don't think he did. >> well i think a lot of the political things he was saying like the small hands in the tanning bed, either that was put in there by a ghostwriter or he was pushed to say those things by a marketing team.

>> every author is susceptible to that. >> i'm not so worried about his descriptions, that standard book editing. what was interesting was the whole thing about the russians and the prostitutes. that whole scene, the way you brought it up was so disingenuous. >> where is the evidence of collusion. trump and vladimir putin deciding how they will steal the election, there's nothing that proves that. james comey said he may have done some things that were unethical. but he didn't think they were obstruction of that justice. >> i'm marrying two different events here but the back and forth about whether he will fire muller and a book like this comes out, and to push him into doing something that he otherwise might not do, that it's a concerted effort,

i'm sounding like a paranoid whack job but a concerted effort to push him to the edge to do something he might regret. >> i think it's plausible, they hate him, they want to see him on out of office and they want to overturn the election. they all hate him. >> i would just caution people at this network, and no one will listen to me, and others that there are no black hats and white hats here. they are all gray hats. you know james comey is a gray hat, donald trump is a gray hat. the temptation is to say james comey bad, trump is being set up. sift through the facts. there is a lot of gray. james comey is certainly not perfect. he is sanctimonious. >> to the point that i raised. >> donald trump. >> not the white black stuff, but do you think it is

conceivable that those who were pouncing on these stories, whether true or not, and certainly what is true is that his personal offices were ransacked and rifled through, that they want to push the president to the point of firing muller. you think that is outside the realm of possibility. >> i think that's crazy and here's why. you actually have to get. >> i'm not saying whether it's advisable, i think it would be stupid but is there crowd of people who would love that to happen. >> you cannot say that muller is concerning with james comey because to follow that logic you have to make sure the federal judge that was close to rudy giuliani is on board as well. >> do you think this will get worse? will the president, once the book is out, he will just be

crazy nuts and do something crazy nuts? >> i think he will continue responding to this as if it's a tv show and as long as people are talking about him he see some benefit because he gets to push back and get his narrative out there. once the book comes out people will lose interest because like every book written you put the best stuff out in the teasers of people buy it. >> and then where does that one go. >> i think it's interesting that in the last few weeks president trump's numbers have been going up. i think part of his people are looking at the scandal thing where's the evidence of collusion, this is dragging on. now we have the attorney-client privilege which goes back to british common law being violated then we have the former fbi director writing all this stuff about urine and whether he gets to go to a tanning salon, it's not serious anymore. i think the american public is probably rallying toward president trump's. >> and james comey is so self-righteous. >> that's what i said.

>> i know. >> you listen to him and it's like who the hell is this guy. the fact that he put the urine thing in their, just to repeat it, just to have us talk about is proof. >> he undercuts his own narrative. >> it's a policy and he needs to be taken serious for that. cold showers is not policy. >> look at that. we are out of time. we will be back after this finally. you're still here? come on, denise. we're voya! we stay with you to and through retirement... with solutions to help provide income throughout. i get that voya is with me through retirement, i'm just surprised it means in my kitchen. oh. so, that means no breakfast? i said there might be breakfast. i was really looking forward to breakfast. i know... voya. helping you to and through retirement.

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all right. it was a reversal that stunned a lot of people. the president had been so critical of the transpacific partnership deal as a counterweight to china and he said it was a bad deal and got out of it and lo and behold, news that he wants his top economic guys to revisit it. edward lawrence has the very latest. welcome aboard. it's good to have you. >> it's good to be here. in congress, many members actually support the decision to go take a second look at the transpacific partnership. senator ben sass specifically said this could be a good way to push the chinese to

actually follow through and ease up on their tariffs on u.s. goods. if there is a trade war, officials say tpp can actually protect u.s. companies. >> he is saying that annie's been talking to farmers who feel like some of the trade conversation has impacted commodity prices and they want the ability to export to more markets. he's willing to entertain a conversation but it has to be a different deal. >> the president is trying to renegotiate what he calls a reciprocal trade deal that is also beneficial to to the united states. getting back in may not be as easy as the first time around. the trade minister came out saying we already have a deal when he goes on to say that going back and revisiting that for the united states may be hard for them to do. a big step forward might be next week when donald trump meets a japanese prime minister in my lago. tpp is on the list of the discussions to talk about and renegotiating nafta may help push the chinese if u.s.

companies have tpp and nafta to rely on, they can shift their import export business in order to offset possible losses. >> thank you very much. a lot of uncertainty. how do you play all that? obviously a lot of people would look at this and say so the president seems to be pro- trade and this was the same week we heard he was revisiting a revised nafta deal, what's going on. >> i think he finally realized oh, if i want to get tough with china, that was part of the point of tpp. we want to be in the group that surrounds china. look at it from a chinese perspective. they want those markets with whom we had a deal and now we pull out of the deal and that's helpful to them. now, if you look at the map of tpp it literally surrounds china. just like we want military bases, we want economic basis. it was a good deal and i would say anytime bernie sanders and

donald trump are both against something, give it a closer loo look. >> is it your sense that the government is telegraphing how he will handle china? they talked about how the two leaders are making progress and maybe they are very close on auto tariffs, that we could get something soon. >> i don't have a crystal ball that will tell me that, i think it is a smart negotiating tactic to say we are looking at tpp again so even if we don't get that deal, it would force china to the table. it won't get them be easy to open up again but i think it's beneficial just to say we are. i hope we are successful - wouldn't be a kick if it works so the tough talk on tariff would never come into effect even though the effect is quite real in the market but he gets what he wants. >> that would be impressive.

the crazy like a fox argument is what people say about him. i feel like we see more crazy than fox, but if this works. >> i wonder if it emboldens other leaders in the future to say for not getting what you want, tariffs. >> it absolutely could. anytime somebody threatens something then adversaries are threatened data at the they are threatening to do the same. if it works, maybe it's a good move. others say you wouldn't dive into a market with all these uncertainties from syria to the trade unresolved, you'd have to wait for that dust to settle but you can never wait for it to settle because there's always new dust. >> exactly. you should never sell into market with all that uncertainty. >> is just way too unpredictable. look at the caterpillar and dear going up and down as

trade threats rise and fall. how can you possibly predict that. i say i'm sorry if i get boring but i always say you've got to invest for the long term msu have information we don't have, don't try to play these little moves. >> what's long-term? 5 - 7 years. i have a 14-year-old and her 529, in january, lucky timing and that's a five or six year term. >> i was tell them they're getting nothing. their mother and i are spending every last penny. >> very good timing. 88 points we are down after this.

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j.p. morgan number adjusted for accounting purposes. the other two topped expectations. i say the butts, the stock at all closed off. just to those points. we will watch to see if this continues. it's supposed to be a very strong season. s&p earnings will be up year-over-year and could be the strongest quarter going back to the first quarter of

2011. in seven years revenue expected to be over a 7%. we start off with fairly strong numbers. there are concerns but bottom line you might see the stocks higher. all three were up and they started to turn lower lower. i can see the anxiety and even the company telegraphed that in its earnings report, but how that spills over to the other guys. >> wells fargo is a special situation. it was a one-time gain and i think the markets got ahead of themselves. we were expecting this so you can't just meet expectations or beat it by a little.

this quarter will be off the charts. when that's your built-in base, there's only one place to go, down. >> the problem for everyday mainstream investors is trying to predict the future at all. the reality is, it's all factored in so only unknowable events projected forward. what that means is investors have to look for 20 and 30 and ten years, not for ten days. they get emotionally distraught. pain and fear. they panic when things are down. >> i've noticed the closer we look to getting a deal without going to trade war, the better. when it looks like i might be in doubt, the worst. how does the trading factory and. >> free markets are better for everybody. it's better for consumers here and in china. any trade war triggers losers on both sides. what we have to remember is a lot of people treat all these

trade deficits bad and it's not necessarily. we have a lot of money for a lot of things. investors need to start focusing on global diversification, 45 countries you can have investments in, not just the u.s. have some short-term fixed income. if it goes down you can have money to reap balance and find more flow. it's not brain science but it's just really hard to do. >> i just tried to tell people out. what are people telling you? what are they saying? i think the outlook will be interesting to look at. it's one thing to make predictions about what happened in the past but trying to make reasonable predictions is tough if your big time company that has to deal with these concerns and you have to decide if the president is bluffing and is china serious is this a full blown trade war. he may not know.

if you are a company trying to plan for that environment, that's the uncertainty. putting the forecast together, even for the banks because they are contingent on what global growth will look like. that environment is tough to plan for, it's tough to forecast. >> one of the environment is a slowdown that we haven't counted on. everybody thanks the federal reserve will be hiking rates and then we get consumer sentiment that maybe people are dialing back whether or not as inclined to be as robust as people thought they would. have we adequately factor that possibility and. >> the fed is sticking to their trajectory. we've had one of those in the heavenly softened not language very much, it will depend what happens with trade, i think we are looking at corporate guidance and what they're predicting for the future. jamie diamond came out last week and made some comments we

haven't seen much of the press release this morning and no one knows -- >> , the arch crediting the tax cuts. >> all of them. 75% of the s&p 500 have alread already -- >> even the ceos don't know their profit from quarter to quarter. there's a lot of uncertainty and volatility. the hardest thing for an investor to do is sit and not panic or get overly greedy. >> what you tell your investors. >> you've got to look long-term. even if you're 16 years old you probably have a 20 or 30 years left to live. >> why are you looking at me. [laughter] >> you have to plan for those next years but it's like being on an airplane. >> if you don't sell anything, don't get out of dodge. >> if the look at short-term opportunities. >> you only lose when you sell

- if you're on an airplane and its turbulent, you don't jump out. stay in the plane. don't jump. don't get out of the plane. i have to write that down. we have some big ones next week. there's a financial that came up this morning but i think there's 69 financial companies that say bank of america, american express, will see. to go back to what they say about the future is much more important than the tax-cut. >> i wanted to get amy stoddard in this. this is the same week that we have fears of a blue wave among many of the republican party that was cemented by this announcement that paul ryan isn't seeking reelection. is it your sense that the gimmick? normally when everyone says it's a gimmick it's not. what are your thoughts. >> certainly republicans are very nervous about the blue wave building and we've seen

that and democratic over performance in state senate and house elections any special elections for congress. that doesn't mean the republicans will lose the majority but they are facing a very challenging headwind. they know historically, if you have the white house and both chambers of commerce you're looking at losses in the first midterm. they are looking at present trumps numbers and a lot of things that show them, many, many retirements, the chairman and now the speaker of the house who they thought would be staying on. also the fear of more to come since he made this announcement. they are very nervous. mitch mcconnell, the senate majority leader said even the senate, republicans having their best since 1938 are

still very aware that the senate is not safe in a wave. they are looking at what's going on in the national conversation. they are concerned, these tax cuts come of they really helped boost the presidents poll numbers, they helped close the generic talent advantage that democrats had in december and january, it narrowed it considerably and they take part in that. not a lot of people are talking about the tax-cut spirit you are on your show but they are hoping that will change. >> they are relighting the. they are going to give you a couple more days to file your taxes. the one thing we, had said is that people don't appreciate the magnitude and the bang for the buck they been getting. companies, individuals so republicans have to keep pounding that.

we haven't marketing these things very well but they are surprised there hasn't been more follow-through. i think it's right to talk about this imaginary unnamed democrat versus republican. it certainly narrow. is it your sense that if republicans hone that that it could improve their chances for keeping the house and or senate. >> like you say, we need people to talk about it. corporations certainly are, i don't know how much america is paying attention but i think if you do you would see that we lower taxes at the top of the cycle so corporations are ready had a lot of cash on the balance sheet and this will just light another fire under the bottom line. >> and i know that many democrats were feeling emboldened to reprise the crumbs line. cory booker and others, they think there's some political capital to reach americans who might be dissatisfied with the tax cuts. >> it all comes down to how secure americans feel in their

jobs. we've seen wage growth so you would think the more money they have in their pocket they tended to put it back in the economy and that helps economic growth but they need to feel their jobs are safe. the more you talk about tariffs and steel, that potentially could impact those that work for steel. >> but they've better than they did a couple years ago. >> it's still pretty high. >> the problem is that it's not a real tax reduction for everybody. you have the top 20% earners, 150,000 or above who paid 84% of the taxes last year. next year they'll pay 87. republicans did something they've been trying to do for years. they made it more progressive. >> but good luck. 20% of the people will pay more because they lost their deductions and, going forward it does become permanent, it will be a permanent increase for about half of all american. >> but they won't see that yet.

>> i tell you what, you better talk to your accountant before the end of the year end figure out how much your holdings should really be because a lot of people will be shocked at the end of this tax cycle. >> i'm just wondering, in the middle of this, it seems to get more in-your-face. a lot of people look at this and say where the heck is this thing going. >> that's why think the midterms become even more unpredictable. if you think about it, on any regular day that we are covering the news, there's probably six or seven stories just coming out of the white house every single day. next week, to your point there will be a lot of talk about taxes. he'll go out and have a roundtable in the try to pump that up but who's to say by the middle of the week the topic hasn't completely changed. just as a random example, if something comes out by bob

muller over the summer, that would shape the entire narrative but even then we don't know how it would shape it because going back to 1998, everybody thought it would be about bill clinton possible impeachment which came after the midterms. it was, but not the way they expected. it energized the republicans because they wanted to stave off election losses. we don't know how anybody will react to the events and we don't know what the events are. >> i noticed when i look at the market, a lot of people in the markets whether you like or dislike the president, they don't like the uncertainty of thinking he might be impeached or leave. that was similar to what we went through with bill clinton. is there a sense that we are heading for the so-called constitutional crisis where we will have some trouble? what are you hearing.

>> there is, all of washington today is on rod rosenstein watch. people around him has said he's ready to be fired and he believes and what he's done. if he's fired it will be up to congressional republicans to characterize that. the onus is on them to oversee this action. they have free range to put himself above this investigatio investigation. >> that's a big selloff right there. >> the headlines are fear, fear and more fear. if you go back through history we've had headlines like that before where there was a tech crash and every time, even if the market goes down there will be people who predict a

holocaust and markets want to go to zero but inevitably it goes up to where it was and goes to new highs. >> they should stop watching cnbc. what is your final take. >> we kind of know or both of these things are going. they could impact where things are going in 2019 and thereafter. i don't think they should be on forecast but what we see on earnings and interest rates. let's look at the fundamentals that are still very strong. >> thank you all very much. will watch all the developments, also watching what's happening in the un and nikki haley upping the anti- to say we know you have chemical weapons and you have a couple choices and so do we. we just don't know what

trigger they will pull. we might by tomorrow. more after this.

) un investor nikki haley is convinced that russia did help syria cover-up this attack.

they believe it was staged as a way to prevent war but it looks like something is fairly eminent fairly soon. admiral, it's very good to have you. >> thank you. >> from what you've heard do you think the evidence is irrefutable that the syrian government was behind this chemical attack? and that it was not a set up to provoke an american act like the one we could be on the verge of? >> it's very obvious that the way these weapons were delivered that the syrians had to be very involved, if not doing it all themselves. i think it is absolutely obvious that they are involved in this. >> the reason i mention it is,

it would seem weird that asad would push his luck on the scene that last time he did something on such a grand scale he got the military response we did. or, he might've heard just days earlier that the president was looking at getting out of syria. i don't know, but it would just seem to be a full hearted venture. what do you think. >> i agree, it appears to a rational person that's the case, but he's been irrational in the past. i don't think we can just go on that basis. >> you're probably right about that. let me get your sense about what we have to do now. one is, don't do what we did or don't make it only what we did last year, that we have to widen it out and get some help, coordinated, hence the fact that this is taking a little bit longer this year than it did last year to coordinate a response. what you think. it's obvious that we've got to be a leader in this effort,

but we can't be the low leader. it's an international crime and it has to be dealt with on an international basis. we have to work with our civilized nations in the u.s. are in the world to make sure this is punished in a way that's not just military, but economic, diplomatic, and long-lasting. >> the fear that rand paul, senator rand paul raised with me is that he's afraid this would be mission creep. i'm using those words, he didn't, but that this would get us more involved than we thought would be the case and that we would be overstaying are welcome, there's no real game plan, what do you say to that? >> i would say there's a good chance of that happening if we do something alone and if we do something just simply militarily, drive-by shooting is not going to help matters at all. we've got to get income the international community has to be with us on this, we have to

approach the problem as it is and that something that's strategic and not tactical. >> i'm looking at russia's response. so far they have been saying this would not be well-received. they're getting a lot of their own weaponry out of harm's way as well as a lot of their personnel. i don't know where they think this attack would be targeted if an attack comes to fruition, but what you think they do in the event that we do something. >> first of all, i don't know the answer to that question because they have their own vote in this. we can predict nor pretend that we are in their shoes. that's a very complex part of the world right now with the iranian presence in the russian presence, the turks are there and they're not all with us on any of our efforts. so, before we take action, we have to think this through and i would really suggest strongly that this has got to be done in an international

way. >> international to at least get one or two more countries with us. >> i would say two or three or four or five. >> we shall see. thank you very much. it's good to have you. >> this is how badly this book of james comey is being received at the white house. the president is wasting very little time calling him untruthful slimeball. it gets worse. i'll tell you why, after this.

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>> neil: we're getting win of a pardon at the white house, now who you might think or who you u might thing. wthink.we have more on that. >> reporter: officially pardoned, scotter libby, a trial that dates back to 2007.

scooter libby was commuted, his sentence, by president george w. bush. president trump is taking it a step further on this day, officially pardoning scooter libby. if you're wondering why all of this, why now, conservatives have long pointed to this case as a case in which a special council ran amuck. the person who authorized the special council that led to the conviction of scooter libby eventually, jim comey. and comey as you know is back in the news today, as he is set to -- at least the interview he gave to abc news, portions of that and portions of his book have been released on this date and it elevates the back and forth that's being going on between him and president trump. one portion of what he says of president trump. i see no evidence that a lie ever caused trump pain or he ever recoiled from causing another person pain which is sat

and frightening. he goes on to say the president is unethical and untethered to the truth and institutional values. his leadership is transactional, ego driven and about personal loyalty. the president fired back on twitter. i know you've been talking about this tweet. he called jim comey a leaker and liar. he said he is weak and ununtruthful slimeball and he said, quote, it was my great honor to fire james comey. at the white house they've been trying to build up the arrestingmenargumenton this daye trusted, he lied under oath and he's just out there trying to sell books. here is mark short from earlier today. >> i think there are a lot of democrats calling for jim comey's firing and so the president fired him. then they decided they like him. we rarely had an fbi director who leaked more to the president and has been more concerned about his own public image. >> reporter: the gamesmanship is very interesting with this one. the comey interview will air on

sunday. he makes the media rounds. his book is released next week. now you've got the white house with the pardon of scooter libby, a special council that was authorized by comey. neil? >> neil: are you telling me that comey has some sort of a book out? >> reporter: i think so. you could probably go on the kin kindle and pick up a copy. >> neil: blake berman at the white house. yoso much to talk about, so lite time. the scooter libby thing is interesting to me. remember that divided president bush with his vice president because vice president cheney thought at the time his former chief of staff, scooter libby should have been exonerated, given a pardon. the president didn't pardon him. i'm wondering besides going after comey with this zinger, is

the president also opening up a new wedge between president bush and vice president cheney? >> i think that if that is one of the layers in play, it may be lower on the birthday cake. it certainly dozened the message to jim -- does send the message to jim comey, this isn't something for the pace. the pardon of joe arpaio, that's for the base. by and large a lot of people have forgotten about this story politically. there are some interesting elements. what it does say is for people who have been charged with obstruction of justice and what they call procedural crimes in the moore investigation is these are things that we feel you get a pass for and there is perhaps a pardon in your future. that's how i see it. >> neil: so if you behave, there's a pardon? >> behave. >> neil: right? okay. what do you make of the dust-up on the book? apparently there's a lot of say la--salcious stuff in there.

he harbored obviously dim views of the president. >> this is the permanent record. this is what you are putting out there that will live beyond et earn at this. this is -- eternity. you feel this is so important and you make sure this is the record that you want to put out and that represents you. apparently jim comey wants to put out that he thinks the president has long ties and kind of small hands and doesn't hug strong and he's orange. you would hope -- and some of the characterizations that he's made and some of the adjectives that he's used, there isn't a kind of heft behind it that would cause this emotional reaction. so so far what we've heard, it's kind of an irrational account and it really once again puts james comey at th center of the

story which is where james comey likes to be. he talks a lot about bullying. he sees the president as a bully. so he's fleshing out some of his own personal, psychological issues and the trauma that he underwent as a child and as an adolescent and i don't think this is the best expression of it. it doesn't, from what i've read, it's not particularly entertaining. at least with the wolf book, you could say wow, even if this isn't true, man, what a yarn. >> neil: don't you see, with a lot of this stuff when i hear it -- the president piles on a lot himself, both demeanor, how he handles things, staffing issues, but sometimes it's right to be paranoid, you should look over your shoulder because all of these former justice big wigs have dim views of the president of the united states. former national security officer and others who pop up on let's say cnn, clearly dim views now

of the president. i'm sure they harbored them when he was running for president. is the only difference now is a lot of them are saying it and putting it out there but they're putting it out this way. >> they're putting it out there because they want to make money. there's money to be hand. >> neil: they may have been against him from the get-go. >> james comey said the reason he publicly reopened the hillary clinton investigation, even though it was reopened before he talked about it, was to make sure that when she won, not if, but when she won it wasn't seen as an i'll leverag legitimate ps an illegitimate presidency because the facts would come out. when she ascended to the presidency, he could go back and make his case about why he was the better person, better than everyone else in the room and therefore he should maintain his job. that's what he was doing the whole time. it was about james comey. it wasn't about anyone else.

it wasn't about truth and loyalty and putting the country above yourself and your own needs. >> neil: i want to put you down an a maybe on comey. kennedy, great seeing you. can't wait for your show tonight. in the meantime, a task force to look into the postal service and what they're doing, after this. my mom's pain from

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they all lead here. cme group - how the world advances. your parents have been ittalking about you for years.. they're all about me saving for a house, or starting a college fund for my son. actually, i want to know what you're thinking. knowing that the most important goals are yours, is how edward jones makes sense of investing. >> neil: all right. we're down about 40 points right now. a lot of this is in this crazy market these days, now it's elevated to the fear of war in syria, but leave this out of the picture, easier said than done, but there's the back and forth on trade with china and the back and forth on the trans-pacific partnership. we've got charlie brady. they call him our stock center. i call him our genius. that's what i call him.

we've got charlie gasparino. i call him our thorn in the side but i love him dearly. i'm looking at the trade thing and i'm thinking throughout the week, the last two weeks, the badder things look for trade and avoiding tariffs, the better it looks for the market and vice versa. will that continue to rule the tone? >> yeah, absolutely. it will continue to rule the tone. and i was always struck by why get out of the t.p.p. in the first place. there was a shot at having china being penalized for currency manipulation. >> neil: the trans pacific partnership -- we pulled out. >> we pulled out. in other words, the basic currency, you make your products cheaper to sell to other markets. t.p.p. maybe could have put a stop to that. i think it's a smart idea for the president to step back in. you wonder if larry kudlow is behind the push back in.

>> neil: what do you sunshine. >> i think it will be harder to get back in than the president thinks. they went through the other 11 nations and took them five years of contentious back and forth negotiations and last january -- >> neil: they're not going to turn us down. >> last january when trump pulled out, he left them all standing at the altar. now essaying he'll -- he's saying he'll join but it has to be on his terms. >> neil: they might tell him to stick it. >> on one hand it shows he doesn't know what he's doing with trade. then he gets back in it, so that shows that at least maybe he's listening to kudlow, who i know wants the u.s. to be in the t.p.p. but it might be too little, too late. it does sort of underscore what i've been saying i think a lot, that trump is all bluster when it comes to trade, that he won't -- that he probably won't go the full monte on a lot of this stuff and the question is, i just want him to declare some sort o of victory, just say we

won, china said something nice about us and not get into this trade war. >> i think a lot of trump's thinking from the beginning on, especially now i believe it, is to sort of drive a wedge between russia and china, insinuate the u.s. between that and that's why he's been -- >> i agree with that, by the way. >> up until very recently, he's been very kind. all of a sudden he destroys this aluminum maker. i mean, wow. he said enough's enough. it's not working, china and russia are getting closer together. so now he's taking a different path. what you said, lindsey, i agree with you, he should have branded china with currency manipulation. >> neil: what if it's working, the threat of tariffs, the threat of getting tough is working. i agree, it depends what you come up with, but if that's getting them to come to the

table and be more conciliatory, it might be working. >> it does sound like it might be working, given president xi's speech. >> neil: he's done nothing since that speech. >> he's given the speech several times. >> china plays the long game, right. the president has -- >> extremely well. >> china plays the long game. >> he's dictator for life, this guy. >> he's in charge for as long as he wants to be. but i think what is happening is that if you watch it, i mean -- sometimes i'm like obsessive and i watch the -- >> neil: really? >> [ laughter ] >> china! >> yes. okay. what i watch now is the wan and gold. they're tracking one another, each other incredibly well. if you look at a 52 week -- >> neil: as a counter to what -- >> what gold does, the wan does.

it might be a lag. if you look at the 52 week average of where the wan and gold are, it's almost a straight line. it has been by far -- >> what does that mean? >> it means china is pegging their currency right now to gold, period. there's no -- >> why are they doing that 1234. >> i think because they want gold to enter the monetary system. >> and take us out? >> not necessarily. >> at a time when they're making big bills by the way. >> i don't want to make any apologies for china. china is not looking to make the wan a serve currency. what -- a reserve currency. they don't want any currency of any country -- unthat would help us. i think that would help us. our dollar's over-valued. >> neil: let me switch gears. maybe we don't need a lot of help. we have earnings that look strong thus far, supposed to be a strong quarter, the first one

that will test how companies have dealt with all this tax manna from heaven. how do you see it sorting out? >> i think there will be focus on the guidance from companies when they report earnings. >> neil: what are you seeing so far? >> as you said, the impact of the tax cuts is going to kick in. >> neil: are they all crediting that for the big numbers. >> it's mentioned in -- only a few companies have reported so far. >> the banks were the high -- will like the higher interest rates too. >> as mentioned earlier, the yield curve sank to the lowest in ten and-a-half years today which is one of the reasons financial stocks were getting hit. >> neil: why the gap between the two year which is rising, that's narrowing, typically that could mean a slowdown. do you worry about that? >> h recession? not right now. >> neil: how about a slowdown. >> if we do have a slowdown, when you just basically cut taxes this much on the corporate

side, you could have much, much higher deficits. that will lead to much higher interest rates. that's i think the real danger with this tax plan and i'm for it. i think we should normalize our tax rates against the rest of the world. i don't like the individual side. >> neil: i haven't heard that. >> get rid of my salt taxes. i'm going crazy about that, my deductions, i should say. if you don't get that 3.5% gdp growth, what does it do to the deficit in it blow it out. >> they predicted 3.3% gdp growth this year. >> that's. >> neil: great. >> neil: have you ever been right? >> that's the forecast. >> what happens if it's 3, which is probably a more realistic number or 2.9. >> as long as it doesn't tick up enough -- the fed those be more aggressive. >> mick mulvaney said you have to get at least 3 to make any

sort of marginal impact on the deficit. you've got to get 3. if it's above 3 it's better. but that bogey has to be 3. if you notice under obama we never really had 3. we had spurts of 3. >> maybe one quarter. >> that's a key bogey. they're banking on this tax plan doing it and i think it will happen but if it doesn't, that's going to be a real problem. next year, you do have an individual tax increase when they totally get rillet of the salt deduction -- rid of the salt deductions. that will be a problem as well. >> i think what will help is that the dollar goes down a little bit, not lose its reserve currency stature or anything like that, but if it goes down, that could really help our gdp. it's clear. >> what country ever devalued its way to prosperity? >> we're over-valued right now, charlie. >> where do you see the dollar? >> that's why we have a big deficit, because our dollar is so expensive. bring it down a little bit to a

fair value. that's all i'm saying. >> we've got to go. he's a little nasty when he -- >> neil: a little testy there. >> i didn't mean to be testy. >> neil: you i wanted you to get that gold thing out there. >> i'm not talking about devaluation. >> neil: you can talk during the break. >> i'm sorry. [ laughter ] >> neil: we'll have more after this, the dow's down 37.

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>> neil: i don't know if this is a carry-over to the amazon battle the president is waging, but h he is reviewing the postal service, how everything breaks down. we have all the details. >> hopefully the viewers will come to a conclusion themselves. late yesterday, thursday evening, the president ordered an executive order to look into the finances and operations of the postal service. this will be led by secretary of treasury, steve mnuchin. he will be the lead panel chair many this is more specifically going to look at the package delivery market and although they're not naming amazon directly in the order, that is the segment that amazon is involved with. and this, you can maybe assume that president trump is doing this because he wants to back up his claims that amazon has been costing the postal service

billions of dollars or more specifically according to a tweet, $1.50 on average per package it delivers for amazon. year-to-date, you just saw the stock was up there. it's been doing quite well, 23%. but let's talk about the issues of the postal service and this is an independent company that's seen net losses for decades. part of that is due to the fact that you're not seeing as many junk mail being delivered as well as first class mail. so people aren't sending cards or invitations as often. and sometimes they don't get it right when it comes to matching production with demand. did a little bit of digging. in 2012, the postal service in the united states, what they did, they produced 1 billion stamps of the simpsons, thinking the simpsons would do better than elvis presley and so they spent $1.2 million and unfortunately they only sold a third of what they produced. there's an example of how they got it wrong. the partnership between amazon and the u.s. postal service has been going on for quite some

time. there was an op ed in january from a postal service spokesperson who did say that commerce, e-commerce revenue provides essential support to pay for our infrastructure and network and all users of mail will benefit. so this e-commerce side is definitely helping the growth or offset some of the shortfall's you're seeing from the junk mail. the other issue the president brought up is the fact that amazon doesn't pay enough but it does pay sales taxes in states that levy it. that's one issue. you can make that decision based off what i told you so far. >> neil: you know what's amazing in all of this? bezos, not a peep out of him. >> he's been very quiet. if prices go up, you could see reaction for ups and fed ex as well. >> neil: not a word, not feeling tempted to engage. christina, thank you. the dow is down about 32 points right now. we're also looking at the earnings season kicking off,

largely financial players on this day. they came out with better than expected numbers for the most part, but they're not getting the reception that many thought they would be. still early, another couple hours to go, but it's all kicked off now. many, many more to go. we'll have more. . .

neil: all right the dow down about 41 points right now. banking issues taking on the

chin despite much better than expected numbers. group up north of 18% where they were at this time. not really helping them to the degree built in such high expectations for these guys and these markets, sometimes it is hard to beat hype. trish regan right now. hey, trish. trish: hey there, neil. you are right. stocks off the session lows which is nice to see we're down just 41 points. the s&p, i should say is just barely in positive territory right now. lots going on at this moment. investors and the international world are awaiting the president's next move on trade and on syria. will we reenter tpp, the trans-pacific trade partnership? these are questions we'll tackle over the next 60 minutes. i'm trish regan. welcome to "the intelligence report." the president signaled he is considering reentering tpp but only on his terms. coming up on my take why we must deal with all t